Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 24, 2022

Ukraine - Running On Empty

Yesterday the Pentagon announced another transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian military:

According to the Pentagon, the package includes:

Additional munitions for NASMAS
150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
Additional ammunition for HIMARS
200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
Over 100 light tactical vehicles
Over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition
Over 200 generators
Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment

The $400 million is being sent to Ukraine through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows President Biden to send arms straight from US military stockpiles.

The Pentagon is clearly scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Additional munitions for NASMAS

NASMAS is an air defense systems that uses re-purposed air to air missiles (active radar homing AIM-120 AMRAAM) in a ground to air mode.

Yesterday one of those missiles was used in Kiev but missed its target. It hit an apartment block and killed several people:

The missile that hit an apartment block in Kiev today was a US-made AIM-120C launched from one of the newly arrived NASMAS air defense systems, donated to Ukraine in the last months. Local people shared on social media photos of the wreckage of the missile. Even though Ukraine blamed Russia for the strike, it turns out the missile was not Russian but American and was fired by Ukrainian troops.

The fragment shown in the photo has the word LIFT as the American AIM-120C. This is an anti-aircraft missile for the NASAMS systems which were recently donated to Ukraine. By analyzing the photos which Ukrainian citizens published themselves the missile which hit their residential building can be easily identified as American.

Heavy machine guns with thermal image sights against drones.

This is a really bad sign. I have tried to find recent photos of machine guns used in air defense mode. There were only antique ones plus this model picture.


bigger

Several decades ago we trained to shoot down helicopters and planes with the machine guns attached to the top of our battle tanks. Despite firing from a stable platform and spending lots of ammunition our hit rates were really lousy. That's why no army I know of is still using this method. Most of the UAV's used in Ukraine for reconnaissance are electrical. They are unlikely to show up in a thermal sight. The propeller driven Iranian drones, probably made in Russia, are hot and make a lot of noise. They can be targeted but are reasonably fast and one has to act equally fast to get them. The Lancet kamikaze drones used by the Russian military in Ukraine fly low and fast. A machine gun team will have little chances when such a drones flies towards it.

Those machine guns Ukraine will get, minus those to be sold on the black market, can not be effective as air defense. They will likely end up to be used in a ground mode to defend this or that frontline ditch. They are good for that until some artillery round or infantry fighting vehicle comes along and takes them out.

Additional ammunition for HIMARS

HIMARS is the wonder weapon that wasn't. The reach of some 70 kilometers is reasonable but one also needs very good targeting data to put them to use. The Russians have learned from the early HIMARS successes and have become much better now with camouflaging their positions.

200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds

Nice to have - but again only if you have reliable targeting data. What is shocking is that there is no other 155 mm ammunition in this delivery. What are those M-777 guns that still exist in Ukraine supposed to fire?

10,000 120mm mortar rounds

That's not a lot either. Previously the U.S. had given Ukraine 20 120 mm mortar with 135,000 120mm mortar rounds. The 10,000 new rounds will likely be spend in less than a week.

High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)

These are air to ground missiles used to target enemy radar. They have been jury rigged to fit on the few SU-27 fighter jets the Ukraine has received from some east European country. There have been reports that Russian air defenses usually hit these missiles before they reach their target.

Today the New York Times reported that one such missile, fired back in September, had hit an apartment building in Kramatorsk:

New York Times journalists were able to gather and identify distinct metal fragments left behind at the site of an earlier strike, in September in eastern Ukraine, providing a window into where the billions of dollars of United States’ military aid sent to Ukraine can sometimes land.

“Three people got wounded, they say. No dead. It hit the apartment where no one lives, and in the next one, people got hurt,” said Olga Vasylivna, a resident who lived adjacent to where the missile hit.

The trucks Ukraine will get may be useful but will there be enough diesel to fuel them?

20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition is again practically nothing. The typical combat load for one infantry soldier is 240 rounds. Machine gun teams carry some 6,000 rounds. The frontline in Ukraine is 1,000 kilometer long. When one does the math one finds that these 20,000,000 rounds are practically nothing.

There is currently a roaring black market for generators in Ukraine. Those 200 new ones will be very welcome. They will most likely end up in Lviv or Kiev.

Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment

The story of the U.S. weapon support for Ukraine is one of diminishing quantity and quality. First the U.S. gave 143 M-777 155 mm systems to Ukraine. These proved to have a high breakage rate and were also easily targeted. Then the U.S. had run out of 155 mm ammunition it could give away. It next offered 36 105 mm howitzers and 180,000 105mm rounds. Same story. After that came the 120 mm mortar.

Artillery is usually fought against with counter artillery. When battle radar pics up a flying artillery round one can calculate where its has been fired from. Then a dedicated counter artillery battery, usually with longer range, will be tasked to fire at that position. In a good organized unit that takes less than one or two minutes.

The M-777 guns have a firing range of about 20 kilometers. That is somewhat equal to 152 mm guns the Russians are using. The 105 mm guns came next. Their range is about 11 kilometer. The 120 mm mortar can reach about 7 kilometer.

Aside from HIMARS Ukraine's front artillery has become smaller with less reach than those systems used on the other side. That will make it  easier to counter it. Ukraine also has an acute lack of ammunition for those few weapons that still exist. It has long lost the artillery war.

The war in Ukraine is waged on an industrial level. But the 'west' and its Ukrainian proxy are not prepared for industrial warfare. In a longer piece - It's War, Josep, But Not As We Know It - Aurelian explains why that is the case:

First, much of the policy impetus on Ukraine comes from Anglo-Saxon countries, whose history of warfare, and thinking about warfare, is essentially expeditionary and limited.
...
The type of military operations that Europeans have actually conducted since 1945, and especially since 1989, have tended to follow this model.
...
The second factor is simply that in general the West’s wars have been limited liability ones, where there have been few casualties at home.
...
For the Russians, geography mandated a different set of criteria. Always a massive country with a relatively large population and long borders, the nation has suffered foreign military invasions repeatedly in its history. It is used to being obliged to fight on its own territory, and in World War II alone, suffered nearly thirty million dead, a large proportion of them civilians. Thus, national defence is literally a life and death issue, and thinking about, and planning for, war, takes place at a massively higher and more complex strategic level.
...
This Russian experience inevitably produces a way of looking at conflict which is radically different from western one, with the proviso that the West itself has had to painfully learn similar lessons during two World Wars, only to promptly forget them each time.
...
The Soviet and Russian militaries have a long tradition of studying the terrible past wars of their country, and there are a number obvious conclusions from any such analysis. One is the importance of sheer numbers, of personnel, of equipment and ammunition. In a long war, which the Russians, unlike the West, have always expected to fight, these things matter a great deal.

Up to 2012 there was a Ukrainian company near Kiev which still produced artillery rounds for Russia. I no longer find the link to that story but the numbers produced for Russia was some 2,000,000 million per year. There is no way the 'west' can match the Russian stockpiles.

Russia expert Gordon M. Hahn looks at the upcoming Russian Winter Offensive. Only with a ceasefire can Ukraine and its sponsors avert the upcoming catastrophe. This for three reasons:

First, the Russian hammer is about to fall on Ukraine. The gloves are coming off; electric energy stations, bridges, and even ‘decision centers’ such as central Kiev’s government buildings are being targeted. ... What will the sociopolitical situation be like when these critical infrastructures are in complete collapse and temperatures are 20 degrees colder? Russia will be moving closer to the strategy of ‘shock and awe’, fully destroying all infrastructure – military or otherwise – as the US did in Serbia and Iraq and will likely take less care now to avoid civilian casualties.

After the infrastructures are completely destroyed or incapacitated, Russia’s reinforcements of 380,000 regular and newly mobilized troops will have been fully added into Russia’s forces across southeastern Ukraine. ... A winter offensive by some half a million troops will make substantial gains on those three fronts and multiply Ukrainian losses in personnel and materiel`, which are already high. This could lead easily to a collapse of Ukrainian forces on one or more front. On the backs of such a success Russian President Putin might also make another attempt to threaten Kiev ...

Second, the West is suffering from Ukraine fatigue. NATO countries’ arms supplies have been depleted beyond what is tolerable, and social cohesion is collapsing in the face of double-digit inflation and economic recession. All this makes Russia the winner on the strategic level and is forcing Washington and Brussels to seek at least a breathing spell by way of a ceasefire.
...
Third, Ukraine’s greatest political asset – Zelenskiy himself – just got devalued, putting at even greater risk Ukraine’s political stability. ... For now, in order to keep the West on board, Zelenskiy is rumored to be pushing Ukrainian armed forces commander Viktor Zalyuzhniy to start a last pre-winter offensive in northern Donetsk (Svatovo and Severodonetsk) or Zaporozhe in order to put a stop to the West’s ceasefire murmurs and reboost support. At the same time there is talk of continuing Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions over the latter’s good press and star status in the West. ... On the background of the deteriorating battlefield and international strategic situation, such civil-military tensions are fraught with the potential for a coup. ...
...
We may be reaching the watershed moment in the Ukrainian war. No electricity, no army, no society.
...
All of the above and the approaching presidential elections scheduled in Moscow, Kiev and Washington the year after next make this winter pivotal for all the war's main parties.

Reading the two pieces quoted above I come to the conclusion war has been lost - by Ukraine as well as by its supporters.

NATO, already deeply involved, could still want to change that by fully joining the war. But I do not think that the U.S. military, nor its European NATO allies, will have the stomach for that.

Posted by b on November 24, 2022 at 17:54 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 24 2022 22:41 utc | 98

With all due respect, everything upside down.

Russia is not an international pariah, when EU / USA opinion doesn't count.

Russia does not "own" Ukraine, in fact, looks like Nato and EU is getting suckered in even more, they own it and especially EU will break itself maybe even fatally. In Ukraine territory, there will probably be some kind of sparsely populated "no-mans-land" between the historical Polish settlements in the west and the rest.

I don't know about the "demographic problem" or how it would've changed in the last 9 months, but in September and October most of these news of people "running away from mobilization" were debunked by border authorities. Some left due to some fake news orchestrated by Zelensky regime media proxies in Russia about the mobilization, and soon came back. Sure, every country has those who would run away from mobilization.

Russia is sucking up Ukronato attacks like a sponge and destroy Nato equipment, howitzers, APCs, artillery radars, AD systems etc. both on the front and behind the front lines en industrial masse.

One thing I'm skeptical tho is whether Russians will launch the much waited "mass offensive". Like someone said, it's probably more realistic that they will keep absorbing and dismantling the ukronato attacks and continue launching strikes in infrastructure. We'll see.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 23:02 utc | 101

This Christmas day birth, can be stuff of fantasy as I can across a family birth certificate that was labeled "No Name" and had the 'not of the house' in the comments, later on modified with white-out and hand printed over...

Posted by: T S | Nov 24 2022 22:32 utc | 94

Clearly you did not live in Canada during the "Trudeaumania" years. I was a teenager in a Conservative Canadian household then and there was no love for Pierre, but there was no way his birth was in any way faked. Pierre is his dad.

Seriously, just drop it.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 23:05 utc | 102

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 24 2022 19:34 utc | 37

-------------

Stopping your nonsense, and refresh your memory of the Kosovo War.

Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 24 2022 23:06 utc | 103

Somehow I expected there would by now be machine gun with targeting systems which were able to hit flying targets.
Anyway so how far in the future can we predict what happens? Major advances for Russia in the winter. New fronts in other countries? New refugee wave. Instability in Europe.
Oddly our media still emphasizes a quiet winter with Russia on the losing hand but part of that may be because a significant force is or was interested in cooling things down.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Nov 24 2022 23:08 utc | 104

This is an international audience and Americans are among the very few who celebrate Thanksgiving today.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 21:56 utc | 82

***

Don't know how many are still following the Open Thread (Not Ukraine), but @145 I posted a link to the livestreaming of the National Day of Mourning, a Native American event on this day in opposition to "thanksgiving":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VZpy2GhNxc

When I lived on the US east coast I went every year. From the event description:

"WHAT IS NATIONAL DAY OF MOURNING?

"An annual tradition since 1970, Day of Mourning is a solemn, spiritual and highly political day. Many of us fast from sundown the day before through the afternoon of that day. We are mourning our ancestors and the genocide of our peoples and the theft of our lands. NDOM is a day when we mourn, but we also feel our strength in action. Over the years, participants in Day of Mourning have buried Plymouth Rock a number of times, boarded the Mayflower replica, and placed ku klux klan sheets on the statue of William Bradford, etc."

Anything to signal-jam the colonialist celebration. Apologies for going off-topic but I thought it might be of interest both to USians and non-USians here; now back to our on-topic antifascist solidarity with the indigenous peoples of Novorossia.


Posted by: Vintage Red | Nov 24 2022 23:09 utc | 105

Just got round to reading the comments. Just want to put out two shout outs

1. @ Bevin
Bro! 👏👏👏
————-
2. & all yanks - happy holiday, lord knows most of you deserve a day off!

I may hate the Imperium but I don’t hate whole countries and most of its peeps - we are all generally mostly human - used to be called the 99%. Though I think that was a psyop by the 0.000001% to keep a healthy competition to join that 1%!

Tomorrow England goes mental - people will be rushing to hostelries, offices will be empty by 5, for our poor holiday of us trying to reverse the Revolutionary War 😂

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 24 2022 23:23 utc | 106

Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 21:56 utc | 82

I'm an American, can't say I'm celebrating, just another Thursday, only in this case, I'm not expected to go to work today.

What other nations celebrate this holiday? Why would anyone but Americans celebrate Thanksgiving?

Posted by: David F | Nov 24 2022 23:24 utc | 107

unimperator | Nov 24 2022 19:52 utc | 49

One thing that has been suspicious is chemical tanker ships which some weeks ago docked at Yuzhne (NE of Odessa)

Gulp.
Are they about to pull a chemical weapon false flag???
The dirty “limited” newk got a fullstop by Shoigu making phone calls.
A chemical weapons FF….. is so very Brit-US.
[was looking for the items I saw yesterday about “Biden” and U$ual suspects warming Russia against using chemical weapons. “Here we go”, I thought]

unimperator | Nov 24 2022 22:23 utc | 90
“……Patriot air defense systems only for NATO member states - Reuters

?? Why not? Not for the first time, I agree that this “SMO-not-war” is the least understandable…inscrutable even….
This wonderweapon, but not that; rrreecord-scratch, yeah, that weapon is Ok now, but still not some other one.
I’d appreciate if one of the (as RSH terms “non morons”) can offer an explanation???

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 24 2022 23:25 utc | 108

Melaleuca | Nov 24 2022 23:25 utc | 111

I am quite likely one of gameboy's morons but scanning the MSM headlines, the land of King Charles is becoming desperate. Dumb yanks want to run off and attack China. Very short attention span. British media is advertising novichok. Brits like their poisons. A white helmet specialty.

Americans tend to prefer a lump of beefcake armed with machine gun and other things that go bang, though that requires a heavy lift helicopter to get them in and out.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 23:37 utc | 109

Looks like Zelensky will now have to go direct to the NRA to get the large amount of ammo the wingnuts store.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Nov 24 2022 18:11 utc | 8

This wing nut aint giving a single bullet to voldomort z that's not aimed at him. I got plenty more where that came from.

P.S.
To hell with the nazis.
To hell with the commies.
May they kill one another until only the SANE are left on this earth.

Posted by: T.D. | Nov 24 2022 23:42 utc | 110

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 24 2022 22:50 utc | 99

A twitter post does not an argument make.

I suppose you could say that Russia gained a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. Bu it seems that could have been done much more efficiently and with less loss of life and national prestige. A disaster all around.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 24 2022 23:46 utc | 111

The mystery of the Ukro mobilization has been solved. Zelensky is using targeted mobilization in Russian speaking regions, to exterminate the Russian speaking population. Mobilization does not affect Lvov or Kiev or Ivano-Frankovsk regions.

In Ukraine, by order of the office of President Vladimir Zelensky, a general mobilization is taking place in Russian-speaking regions.

A representative of the Russian law enforcement agencies in the Kherson region said a general mobilization is taking place in Russian-speaking regions. At the same time, it practically does not affect the western regions of the country.

Recall that earlier in the Verkhovna Rada, by decree of the current president of the country, the term of general mobilization and martial law on the territory of Ukraine was extended until February 19 next year.

"Sources in the Ukrainian military say that general mobilization takes place mostly only in the Russian-speaking regions of the country. For example, in the Cherkasy, Nikolaev and Dnepropetrovsk regions, as well as in Kiev - Ukr controlled part of the Zaporizhia region," the law enforcement agencies added.

It is specified that by order of representatives of the Kiev regime, mobilization is practically not carried out in the western regions of Ukraine. In particular, about 30 people were mobilized in Lvov, and 40 in Ivano-Frankivsk.

According to sources among the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in this way the Zelensky regime wants to solve the problem of destroying the potentially dangerous Russian-speaking population of the east and south of the country.

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/13273

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 23:47 utc | 112

JessDTruth@55 is correct that the truly wealthy own vastly more equities than the middle strata. But the vast majority of those companies whose stocks they own have floated corporate bonds. The wealth-destroying effects of inflation hit corporate bonds. Now it's true that in the US for one----and the US by itself is so proportionately enormous that it is by virtue of it size typical or characteristic of the world financial system----the Fed has vastly inflated the currency by bank bailouts, a large part of which involve accepting corporate bonds. Most of the hard money crowd preaching doom because of hyperinflation can't even see that this hyperinflation should have set in years ago. Instead there has mostly been a steady inflation. The proper conclusion is, the orthodox theories of inflation, hard-money, goldbug, Austrian, "neoclassical," Keynesian/neo-Keynesian etc. are all wrong. Government deficits matter in the market for government securities of course. But so far as I can tell, that is largely because government securities provide the liquidity for the mushrooming fictitious capital financial instruments. Those are expanding because of the declining rate of profit and subsequent diminished capital accumulation. That I say is why the Fed can pump trillions into the markets and there's no hyperinflation. As to why there is a worldwide bout of inflation, well, it's not due to Joe Biden, no matter what the partisan hacks say. Biden clearly and brutally announced he planned to deal with inflation by letting the Fed do its thing, which is trash the economy to crush the workers. If the pain is bad enough, yes eventually the rate of profit will be (temporarily) restored, until the next crisis. The slow inflation of credit money is not a crisis if the rate of profit stays steady. Inflation is a world-wide crisis because the world capitalist system is in trouble.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 24 2022 23:50 utc | 113

oh my prophetic soul!

i predict that a new spirit of ecumenism will arise in the "western church" (now w/more mormons), unified around the de-russification of the "eastern church".

though, for whatever it is worth, the protestants would have more in common traditionally with eastern orthodox suspicion of what the RCC is up to. but they don't call it the whore of babylon for nothing!

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 24 2022 23:50 utc | 114

I have been of the opinion that a long drawn war favours Russia. I do wonder now whether a total victory in Ukraine might collapse the most important front of this war - the PR propaganda one, that Russia is losing. It would totally add to the humiliation of the Collective West in the eyes of the Global South. Empire is as much about illusion as it is about real power.

Posted by: Moses22 | Nov 24 2022 23:55 utc | 115

unimperator #49

Chemical carrier ships and Odessa.
There is a fair amount of ammonia(?) export via Odessa afaik. Read some detail somewhere late last night etc. So this too was included in the grain deal as it is converted to fertiliser at destination (NOT Beirut ;). Right now there is bumper profit to be made as there is a global deficit of agricultural fertiliser.

Novichok is an easy to transport, small container item that Porton Down could package in a perfume bottle if desired. I understand they have a gel form that can withstand weeks in the open environment and only infect slavic persons using doorknobs.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 24 2022 23:57 utc | 116

uncle tungsten | Nov 24 2022 23:57 utc | 119

An excellent description of the magical novichok.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 0:01 utc | 117

Lex@64....surprise, in Kharkov? You might have been surprised but there were hundreds of pics on social media detailing the Ukrainian force build up there. If Russia was surprised, they ought to pack up, and go home. They were understaffed, undermanned from the beginning. And they were lost in the world of graft, allowing trains to transport weapons to the front. To the point where now they have to smash the fuck out of the place. Surprise!

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 25 2022 0:02 utc | 118

middle classes with savings accounts and the working class with pensions.

ha ha you funneh guy!

Posted by: Drinky Crow | Nov 25 2022 0:03 utc | 119

It could have been Lou Rawls, Jack Nicholson, Ryan O'Neill, any of the Rolling Stones or a trucker. My money is on Bill Wyman.

Get real, it were Fidel!

Posted by: Drinky Crow | Nov 25 2022 0:06 utc | 120

juliania | Nov 24 2022 20:44 utc | 62

Seconding Juliania's blessing, happy thanksgiving to all of you.

Despite its colonial origins this secular holiday in the States is the real deal, families get together, students return from college, people eat turkey and I think there is football on tv. I'm being real here it is as close to a genuine holiday as you get, without the tricolored trappings of the fourth of july.

And thirding or forthing northerner, waynoinorway and norwegian (and Juliania) thanks bevin for your considered posts. This bar has been through lots of posters, and lots of history. The best remain, although I still miss rememberinggiap, Malooga and DeAnander. Still steel.

Must add: apology for being off topic.

Posted by: jonku | Nov 25 2022 0:09 utc | 121

Opport Knocks@105

I entirely agree with you. Not that it matters a damn.
Trudeau is a worthless fellow, shallow and cowardly but that is not father (who was not much better)'s fault. He is what he schooled himself to be- a man without character or principles- and a perfect match for the Canadian ruling class, neo-liberalism and the ownership group in Washington.
Chrystia Freeland is even worse, of course.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 25 2022 0:12 utc | 122

nwwoods | Nov 24 2022 22:24 utc | 91
why would the american wing of nato fear this? they can tell and sell the plantation slaves anything at this point. and apparently the Euro ruling class as well.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 25 2022 0:15 utc | 123

Stéphane@93
And the others who agreed with my @17. It is gratifying to be in agreement with others. There are no tall poppies here, which is why it works.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 25 2022 0:17 utc | 124

@106 chen

I'm somewhat familiar with that war. The association to my post is kinda nebulous though. Care to explain further?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 25 2022 0:18 utc | 125

I believe at this point that Russia's greatest ally is the Ukranazi coup regime itself. It could have long ago allowed Putin to negotiate a "peace" that would have been a de facto defeat for Russia, with the nazi regime still in power, NATO in all but name, and the LDNR still being squeezed to accede to Ukranazi rule under Minsk II. Of course Putin and his oligarch cronies would have been very happy with that. Unfortunately for Putin and very fortunately for Russia the Ukranazis have been so obdurate and vile that Russian civil society will never settle for any such outcome now. I believe that Surovikin is fighting his war in the clear knowledge that his military imperatives are opposed to the Putin regime desires, but that he himself has Russia behind him while any Putin peace moves don't.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 25 2022 0:25 utc | 126

If I recall….. an unmarked transport plane landed in Ukraine during the height of the Maiden and helpfully airlifted all of Ukraine’s gold for “safe” keeping…somewhere?
Anyway. Lebanon showing its Central Bank vault. (?)
Ostentatious displays often precede a gratuitous mugging….thus,
Looks like Lebanon is seriously requesting another serve freedumb fries. and demonocracy….

https://twitter.com/timourazhari/status/1595771181088604162

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 25 2022 0:26 utc | 127

bevin | Nov 25 2022 0:17 utc | 127
Yours was a most welcome post, and I fully intended to join the chorus of appreciation.
I don’t always agree with what you post, but you won the thread with that one… thanks.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 25 2022 0:29 utc | 128

During the Vietnam War the North Vietnamese government instructed civilians in villages to fire their rifles into the air if they heard aeroplane engines low overhead at night. This improved civilian morale, letting them believe they were accomplishing something. And some of them even hit Amerikastani planes.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 25 2022 0:31 utc | 129

bevin | Nov 25 2022 0:17 utc | 127

Its a wild wild world at b's bar. I had to take stock awhile back when the bar was overrun with trolls and name usurpers. I was getting too angry. They are now gone, like a fog in the hot sun.
Russia's multi-polar world, the example it sets can be carried through to something as simple as this blog.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 0:33 utc | 130

BEVIN
BEVIN
BEVIN

Thankyou. You deserve to be in capitals because I am shouting praise.

I have just copied you comment in full and emailed in to all my family and good friends. Few sadly will bother to read it but I have at least tried.

Posted by: watcher | Nov 25 2022 0:34 utc | 131

Yes I rather like it here. Long time reader recent poster.

I hope to add to the viewpoints and conversation with strange new ideas.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 25 2022 0:37 utc | 132

Ania reports on the potential Lavrov attendance at OSCE meeting in Poland on 1&2 December.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBbYs4WdmEk

It appears the Polish Minister for European Affairs thinks he should stay away! Insulting little prick.

The member states of the OSCE are numerous and stretch across the entire eurasian landmass excluding China and Asian nations.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 25 2022 0:40 utc | 133

"Or lets compare the death toll for Russian soldiers during 9 months with the death toll of US death toll for both Iraq and Afghanistan.
This war is of course nothing but a mess for Russia."
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:58 utc | 51

I wonder why Ukronazis never like to talk about ukrainian losses:
"OSINT (open-source intelligence) investigators have named real irretrievable losses of Ukraine’s army. As of 20 October 2022, according to OSINT, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost 402,000 people, of whom 387,000 were killed. Losses among mercenaries and volunteers from Poland, the Baltics and Romania totaled 54,000, with 31,240 killed. These are OSINT figures calculated using funeral agency summaries, morgue extracts and analysis of radio, cellular and satellite exchanges of AFU forces."
"The German publication ZEITUNG.DE citing American military experts, including retired representatives of the US Army command, says that the number of deaths among the Armed Forces of Ukraine is over 200 thousand people, or 15-20 thousand monthly."

USA is just very good in killing millions of babies and women from very far away, bombing the crap out of civilians and whole cities and leaving devastated countries back to Middle Age, when they retreat after 20 years without succeeding in anything.

Posted by: cortomaltese | Nov 25 2022 0:40 utc | 134

your response comes across as petty to me..

richard steven hack and all other americans on the board here - happy thanksgiving! we have much to be thankful for..

Posted by: james | Nov 24 2022 22:59 utc | 103

Sure, I am the petty one and not the dude that calls people morons in his holiday greeting message.

I'll try to do better...

https://twitter.com/CoachTenney/status/1595878080132050945

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 0:47 utc | 135

Outraged | Nov 24 2022 20:31 utc | 61
"There is in fact a critical shortage in the Empire of small arms ammo..."

the national birds here in thanksgiving land gobble gobble in agreement. never enough. can a human get a presidential pardon and escape the holiday butchery?

it would be funny, though, to see the reaction if congress or whoever decided the existential crisis for the US that Ukraine represents required any kind of commie rationing of bullets sold at Target stores and Amazon. how can we be fighting for freedom there when the liberal nanny state is confiscating our guns and ammo here? you might think with all the money the DOD spends and all the privatized sector spends and individual spending, there'd be more bullets. you'd be wrong. what a sad world, when an american can no longer get the full firepower for his fiat buck. are we really that corrupt? should i be hording? what does "American Bobcat Hunter Weekly" advise? or those other sportsfans mags where I learnt to shoot wolves from helicopters? what will my local Bank of America do if an armed guard is not standing post at the bank ATM, but only an unarmed guard??? you know when the guns go, the country goes. what is a country except its guns? esp one w/no enemies on its borders...

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 25 2022 0:54 utc | 136

Bevin @ 17 I had to go back to read your post since so many were thanking you.
Thank you. Made me nod my head in agreement. Totally in line with Cuban freedom fighter and song writer Jose Marti when he penned "Guantanamera"

"...Con los pobres de la tierra, quiero yo mi suerte echar...
el arroyo de la montaña me complace mas que el mar..."

"With the poor of the land I want to take my chances (throw my luck) ... the stream of the mountain pleases me more than the sea..."

Solidarity to you b, Bevin and all the other peons here at Moon of Alabama.

Posted by: migueljose | Nov 25 2022 1:00 utc | 137

Apologies for going off-topic but I thought it might be of interest both to USians and non-USians here; now back to our on-topic antifascist solidarity with the indigenous peoples of Novorossia.


Posted by: Vintage Red | Nov 24 2022 23:09 utc | 108

Are you seriously going to claim that the Russians are the indigenous people of Novorossia? They invaded the territory in the 1780s, long after the North American colonial project was well under way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#Ancient,_mediaeval_and_imperial_Russian_periods

Even the supposedly indigenous Crimean Tatars only arrived in the 10th century.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 1:03 utc | 138

Posted by: bevin | 24 november 2022 18:45 UTC | 17

One of your very best. Kudos.

A niggle: I think it is more liberty than democracy that you were praising, but of course that was the spirit in which you were using the term.

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 25 2022 1:05 utc | 139

@ cortomaltese | Nov 25 2022 0:40 utc | 137

IF 387,000 were killed, KIA then under these conditions will be no less than ~1,161,000 WIA(~70% irrecoverable).

IF over 200 thousand KIA, that is then 600,000 WIA(~70% irrecoverable).

And the extensive MIA that Ukraines AFU refuses to record ?

And the number or deserted/surrendered & captive POWs ?

The NATO-fied Regular standing AFU Army on Feb24 was ~600,000.

So first case, it has suffered more than 258% casualties.

Or second case more than 133% casualties.

More than ~20-30% casualties a modern Army or Unit/Formation becomes Combat ineffective.

@ jonku | Nov 25 2022 0:09 utc | 124

Especially sorely miss Remembering Giap & Deanander too. Happy Thanksgiving.

Still Steel

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 1:08 utc | 140

What other nations celebrate this holiday? Why would anyone but Americans celebrate Thanksgiving?

Posted by: David F | Nov 24 2022 23:24 utc | 110

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thanksgiving#Observance

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 1:09 utc | 141

Gazprom will begin reducing gas supply to the Sudzha GIS for transit through Ukraine.
Gazprom announced that will begin to reduce supplies through Ukraine from November 28, from 10:00.
> Gazprom will reduce the supply of gas to GIS Sudzha — because of the gas that did not reach Moldova, but "settled" in Ukraine
Gazprom records the disappearance in Ukraine of Russian gas intended for delivery to Moldovan consumers under a contract with Moldovagaz.
> Exchange prices for gas in Europe after Gazprom's announcement of a possible reduction in supplies through Ukraine sharply accelerated growth - up to 4%, above $ 1,280.
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1595017295708971017

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 25 2022 1:21 utc | 142

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 1:09 utc | 145

That was interesting, had no idea, thought it was purely an American thing. Then again, I was educated, or mis-educated if you prefer, in the US, so, there's that.

Beginning about now, tomorrow at the latest, comes the best part. Non-stop advertising and annoying xmas songs literally every where I go for the next 6 weeks.

Posted by: David F | Nov 25 2022 1:24 utc | 143

Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 25 2022 0:25 utc | 129
so in hindsight your foresight really was insight all along...except you misunderestimated the nazis...all along...i'm not a mind reader and there are plenty of people on this blog who know far more, or profess to, about the military side, the geography, history, weather, the etc., etc., than I. but we are all pretty equal on the mind reading dept, including reading putin's mind. possibly he, or rather they, took a page, a very bold prominent page from Russian history, some very basic military theory (e.g., offense vs defense) and decided to go slower than the "Call of Duty" bushwhacka strategery normally does. i don't know.

but one thing I have an unqualified expertise in is how utterly full of shit american officialdom is. there is no calculating for that. dangerous, for sure. but unbelievably stupid. arrogant, hubristic, nihilistic...words that don't come close. beyond bombing stuff, TrumBiden has zero idea what the USM can or cannot do. who in Washington DC does? they lie like they breathe and so have no idea when they are not lying. if the bought and paid for media whores applaud something, it is true. if the "markets" respond, it must be true. and that's the only truth there is, here in the US.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 25 2022 1:24 utc | 144

btw, if the US really wants to help Ukraine, maybe the CIA can offer "A Course in Miracles"?

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 25 2022 1:24 utc | 145

I hope to add to the viewpoints and conversation with strange new ideas.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 25 2022 0:37 utc | 135

Strange is the word. No need for so much gum bashing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 1:36 utc | 146

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 1:08 utc | 144

They ve gone through at least 9 mobilizations, we don't know how many were mobilized, no 1 tells us. Rumor is, there is more chatter on battlefield now in Polish or English than in Ukrainian. They search for mercenaries among ISIS/Syria. NATO weaponry is basically handled by NATO personnel, troups are lead by (ex)NATO/mercenaries/professionals, there are official US troops in the country ("inspectors"). There are pics of "very young" soldiers, I dunno about participation of women, but it is discussed. Ukrainian attacks are often suicidal, they may be drugged.
Loos like this war is slowly transformed from RU vs. UKR to RU vs. LOTS OF COUNTRIES, like it was in Syria.

Posted by: cortomaltese | Nov 25 2022 1:37 utc | 147

I have just copied you comment in full and emailed in to all my family and good friends. Few sadly will bother to read it but I have at least tried.
Posted by: watcher | Nov 25 2022 0:34 utc | 134

That od saying "you can lead a horse to water". I have experienced the same.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 1:39 utc | 148

od.. odd. bloody typos.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 1:45 utc | 149

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 23:02 utc | 104

Thank you for the thoughtful reply. Of course, I don’t see things the way you do and I am sympathetic to the Russian side.

But you did not answer the fundamental question…”to what end?” What is the desired Russian end state? Denazification and demilitarization are open ended objectives…they do really fit the definition of “objective”. Objectives must be “timely (an end must be defined)”, they must be “measurable”…how do you measure denazification and demilitarization?

I just don’t understand the blood lust.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 25 2022 1:47 utc | 150

Thinking about conscription for Russian speakers to fight against Russia, this is way above Zelensky's paygrade.

It is Soros, who funded the nazi indoctrination of Ukraine who planned cathartic change by means of inner conflict. Soros is a zionist and a Democrat.

So before we commiserate with Russian - speaking Ukranians being conscripted to die fighting Russia, at least they know and care steadfast to their own hearts.

But all do all those dupes who just voted for Biden in the midterms understand what they voted for? Or those dupes who voted for Trump's White Supremacy?

Dupocracy, the art of getting Turkeys to
vote for Christmas. There is something obscene about all those millions of people who don't know what they are voting for : conflict and war.

At least the conscripted Russians kept their minds intact. I once followed a chicken lorry where every two minutes another chicken fell out onto the road through a small trap door.

The brainwashed masses in their herd have a lot to answer for. These Homo sap-brains are surely more pathetic, than those whose unwilling deaths were planned by fascists like Soros and Boris.

The message of Western Democracy is that if you don't think , you'll be allright. But if you do think, look what happened to Jesus. Pbuh. No. You will be judged by your thoughts, not by the flavour of your Turkey meat.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 25 2022 2:04 utc | 151

Outraged | Nov 25 2022 1:08 utc | 144

Yeah, there are still a bunch of us around although we mostly listen.

annie, Dan of Steele, perhaps a few others. This bar has a storied history which is always available via search.

I'm still laughing about an earlier post about how the "older ones" don't have much chance of evading the mainstream media's narrative. When in fact most if not all of the people here I respect are retirees or at least in our later years.

Technology is not the solution, it is simply another means to access community and information. Kinda like the library really, or a book.

As an attempt to hew to the topic, I agree that the battle in Ukraine is beyond meaningful to our future, and I have strong hope that it will result in the defeat of the nasty powers that be.

At the same time I measure my avowed pacifism against the bloodshed. The loss of hundreds of thousands of people in this war alone is devastating to the soul. Ongoing through the rest of the world as well.

Is there a possible good outcome? Michael Hudson says this is a decades-long battle so I will try to do what I can in the meantime.

Posted by: jonku | Nov 25 2022 2:08 utc | 152

@ cortomaltese | Nov 25 2022 1:37 utc | 151

Oh indeed, almost all comms voice traffic past months has not been Russian or Ukrainian. So the Comms operators & tactical commanders, Ukrainian, are long, long dead. Re 9 mobilizations, they are just 'meat sacks' or what was termed 'human sandbags' in Afghanistan & Iraq. Practically no training, dumped in the frontline trenches, many reports of their supposed officers hightailing it out, leaving them to their fate ... Boys as young as 10 too. Have seen no confirmation of your girls or women at the FEBA, yet. Captagon, as in Syria, apparently especially so for the brainwashed boys. The Mercs pick & choose whether they will perform the mission. Utterly uncommitted & ever so unreliable, they are not picking up their 'Soldier of Fortune' payments to commit suicide.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 2:09 utc | 153

Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 25 2022 1:47 utc | 154

What is so difficult to understand.

Russia set out its goals very clearly 1 year ago. They were:

1. Protect essential Russian security by securing Crimea, preferably by international agreement. Essentially if Russia were to lose access to its naval base in Sevastopol, the survival of Russia as an entity would be next to impossible. Too many greedy or hostile nations would set up shop there and eventually one or other would attack Russia from the South. In 1860 it was Britain, Currently it is the USA/NATO. In the future Turkey, Israel, Georgia or even Iran, India or China could be candidates.

2. Protect the Russian diaspora, initially in the Donbass, but generally throughout the previous USSR republics

3. Neutrality in Ukraine, essentially by ensuring there were not additional NATO bases perched right on its borders

4. Absolutely no nuclear weapons any closer to Russia than they already are

5. Withdrawal of existing nuclear weapons to a safer distance

6. Not stated but clearly part of their thinking - removal of suspect bioweapons laboratories

7. The nebulous denazification, which essentially means having a neutral or possibly friendly Ukrainian government, and one which did not persecute minorities or ethnic enclaves- especially Russians, but also the other minorities.

Posted by: watcher | Nov 25 2022 2:09 utc | 154

Now the Russians are really in trouble. The Ukraine may deploy the The Monaco Battalion.

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 25 2022 2:10 utc | 155

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 25 2022 2:04 utc | 155

"But all do all those dupes who just voted for Biden in the midterms understand what they voted for? Or those dupes who voted for Trump's White Supremacy?"

You do realize that neither of those people were on the ballot in the recent election, yes? They will both be on the ballot in about 2 years.

Comments like the above do not do your credibility any favors.

Posted by: David F | Nov 25 2022 2:18 utc | 156

Has Ukraine extended Martial Law beyond Nov 21, 2022?

When I search for Martial Law extensions by the Verkhovna Rada, I only find references to Martial law up through November 21, 2022 and can't find any reference to an extension beyond this. Does anyone have a link documenting an extension beyond this?

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 25 2022 2:21 utc | 157

@OdessaConnected 161

To self: As soon as I posted my message 160, I used a different search engine and found that martial law has been extended until February 19, 2023. That sucks.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 25 2022 2:25 utc | 158

Here is how it's going to work out. Russia will rebuild and provide care for the the essentially Russian people on the western side of the Ukraine. And they will drop bread, eggs, beans, and cabbage from cargo planes down to the fasciopathic homeless or yurt-dwelling neo-cargo cult inhabitants of the eastern side. Plus a few missile warheads will land on them here and there to keep them in line. The fasciopaths will perhaps gradually regain their sanity. The Western fasciopaths will, as always, find ways to to make it all as miserable as possible for any disgruntled plebeians.

Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 159

Outraged | Nov 25 2022 2:09 utc | 157

Early on Russia's clobber sheet was filled with headquarter hits. Now all radio traffic is in foreign languages. Not difficult now to detect that officers are not Ukrainian.
Howls of indignation go up when these become paint on the walls. Syria was the same.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 160

Ukrainians behave in Germany as they do in their homeland. This is not particularly surprising. What is frightening is the fact that this behavior is tolerated and supported by politicians and a large part of the population.

"The hate crime was committed on Saturday night in the Friedrichshain district of Berlin. Around 3:30 a.m., two people - a man and a woman - were waiting for a cab outside a restaurant when they were approached by a group of five people, one of whom was carrying a blue and yellow Ukrainian flag.

After the man - of Russian descent - said a few words in his native language, the Ukrainian nationalists suddenly attacked him and the woman.

Neither she nor her companion had made any political statements or discussed anything with the attackers, the woman said, but the Ukrainians had accused her of supporting Russia. They beat her, including with a broken beer bottle. When the woman was already on the ground, pepper gas was sprayed in her face from a meter away. The injured woman managed to escape into the restaurant.

Police are currently looking into "all versions" of the incident, according to the police press office.

They confirmed the attack on the woman, who was mistaken for a Russian and is now hospitalized with injuries to her head and hands. The alleged perpetrators have not yet been found."

https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/439320.ukrainischer-nationalismus-hass-aufs-russische.html

Posted by: Uwe | Nov 25 2022 2:34 utc | 161

Are they really scraping the bottom of the barrel? That sounds similar to how Russia is running out of munitions.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Nov 24 2022 18:09 utc | 5

As if the evidence didn’t speak for itself.

Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 25 2022 2:35 utc | 162

@ jonku | Nov 25 2022 2:08 utc | 156

Michael Hudson says this is a decades-long battle so I will try to do what I can in the meantime.

Personally am stunned at the pace of events outside Ukraine.

There was an 8 month phony War(Sitzkreig) between zee Germans invading Poland at start WWII before they moved on the Low countries & France. Youngins these days, so impatient, want the conflict in Ukraine to fulfill their intense immediate need for another entertainment or action hit, NOW. 'Are we there yet ?!'

The real deal is break up of NATO, probably EU, Ukraine is a distraction & a cipher, a secure & safe way to militarily, economically bleed the Empire dry, de-industrialize & sunder EU polities, while it's caught in a Steel Bear-trap(Ukraine).

Turkey:, Algiers, OPEC countries, Kurdistan, Syria, Iraq, West Africa & other African nations, even Japan, is where the real action is taking place, IMV.

We are living in and through 'Interesting Times'.

Empire could end driving humans to slaughter anytime it wishes, yet is that not yet another of it's likely goals re 'Slavs' ? All the while RoW is looking on intensely.

The tighter empire squeezes the more nations fall through its grasp.

Anni popped up to say Hi, have not seen Dan of Steele for ages. Hah, youngins opining about the bar, & the supposed views or histories therein. Same as always. Pfft. Feelin' me age after that rant.

Peace

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 164

Damned right about that Peter. Low value & far fewer trolls ? See Ukraine electricity grid/Internet status perhaps ?

@ blues | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 163

Brutal, yet likely true.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 2:38 utc | 163

In one of the linked blogs, the author observes that a munitions manufacturer in the Kiev region was delivering 2,000,000 artillery rounds to Russia annually up until 2012. This suggests that Russia might have easily started out in February with some 20,000,000 or so rounds in inventory.

Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 25 2022 2:39 utc | 164

Even the supposedly indigenous Crimean Tatars only arrived in the 10th century.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 1:03 utc | 142

***

And before the Tatars others, going back to the Scythians and Sarmatians. I'm not talking who was in linear-time some primordial earliest inhabitant, I'm talking about who's the colonizer and who's the target of colonization in this historical context.

Regardless of whether one considers Zelensky's call to make the Ukraine into "a new Israel" (thereby casting Russians into the role of the Palestinians) or the Nazis' General Plan Ost with its call that "the Volga must be our Mississippi" (casting Russians into the role of Native Americans), either way the US-led West is viewing Russians as an indigenous people they are targeting for colonization. NATO is basically a club of the world's colonial powers. The policies of their puppets in Kiev are to eradicate all things Russian, from language to literature to monuments to Orthodox religion to torturing and slaughtering Russian people in the same ways colonizers have done to indigenous people the world over.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Nov 25 2022 2:45 utc | 165

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 21:56 utc | 82

This is an international audience and Americans are among the very few who celebrate Thanksgiving today.

Please! USians or seppos, there are two continents of Americans.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Nov 25 2022 2:52 utc | 166

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Nov 24 2022 23:08 utc | 107

Somehow I expected there would by now be machine gun with targeting systems which were able to hit flying targets.

Radar controlled Bofor 40/60 were very effective against propellor driven aircraft, absolutely useless against jets and too big to be used anywhere than on large ships. A HMG like the Browning .50 cal only has an effective range of 1800m. How many would you need to defend a city against drones? And remember, what goes up, must come down, civilian casualties anyone?

Posted by: Peter Williams | Nov 25 2022 3:05 utc | 167

@ Vintage Red | Nov 25 2022 2:45 utc | 169

Yes.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 3:09 utc | 168

Well, here we are. Winters coming. Ukraine is suffering blackouts. Hmm, I wonder how this ends. Any prognosis at this point is conjecture.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Nov 25 2022 3:09 utc | 169

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 23:05 utc | 105:

Clearly you did not live in Canada during the "Trudeaumania" years. I was a teenager in a Conservative Canadian household then and there was no love for Pierre, but there was no way his birth was in any way faked. Pierre is his dad.

I agree with your take. Those speculating Justin being genetically not related to Pierre is spewing BS. Pierre was liberal no doubt, but he was a sincerely kind person that liberals profess to be. Deng Xiaoping's son was hurt during the Cultural Revolution at Beijing University and broke his legs. When Deng returned to power in mid 70's, he tried to seek medical help for his son. But China was backward at the time. Deng heard that some surgical specialist at McGill University may be able to restore his son's legs. His family inquired, and was told that it would cost C$200,000. Deng couldn't afford such a sum and drop the pursuit. When Pierre heard about this (McGill probably told him), he was flabbergasted that someone of Deng's statue and high position in government couldn't muster together C$200,000. Pierre asked McGill to proceed with the operation and paid for it out of his own pocket. That's the kind of person he was.

The operation wasn't successful. But Deng's family was grateful to Trudeau's gesture greatly. Margret Trudeau was rebellious, but I'm sorry to hear all these garbage being spew on Pierre's family till this day.

I also think Justin is fu-king naive. Canada should have found a better Premier last year.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Nov 25 2022 3:16 utc | 170

-- Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 163

I always get 'east and 'west' backasswards. Always.

Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2022 3:18 utc | 171

Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2022 2:28 utc | 163

I always get 'east' and 'west' backwards. It's weird.

Posted by: blues | Nov 25 2022 3:19 utc | 172

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 25 2022 1:03 utc | 142

Are you seriously going to claim that the Russians are the indigenous people of Novorossia? They invaded the territory in the 1780s, long after the North American colonial project was well under way.

Vintage Red said peoples, a plural. Both the Tatars and Russians let the previous inhabitants stay, they did not genocide them. Novorossia had numerous peoples in it, look at the names of cities like Melitopol or Mariupol, cities founded by the Greeks, and having Greco-russian citizens until the Ukrainian army came with AZOV and AIDAR, who forced them out because they weren't THEIR type of Ukrainians.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Nov 25 2022 3:21 utc | 173

@ blues | Nov 25 2022 3:19 utc | 176

Don't sweat it, your intent & meaning was apparent.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 25 2022 3:22 utc | 174

Well as this is a bar I will buy a decent Scotch for karlof1 and a round for the rest of the comrades. For me just another glass of plonk.

The quieting of the troll voices lets us be civilized again. Does it make sense to ignore those voices.

Posted by: jonku | Nov 25 2022 3:31 utc | 175

@David F | 45

... The horrors of living without electricity... people pointing out there will be no refrigeration. Not going to be an issue in the winter...

So true -- if someone is so silly indeed to claim otherwise. We can safely drop this issue far below that of electronic surveillance, security and social order in desperate times. Imagine a supermarket during a blackout that lasts several days.

The NYC Blackout of 1977: An Invitation To Looting And Rioting

Posted by: Nomad | Nov 25 2022 3:34 utc | 176

⚡️The Odessa City Council has decided to dismantle the monument to the Russian Empress Catherine II.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/22120

What’s absurd about this decision is that Odessa was founded by Catherine the Great in 1794.

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 3:52 utc | 177

From Larry Johnson

The war in Ukraine has exposed the fact that United States and NATO do not have a viable anti-missile defense system that can shoot down Russian hyper sonic missiles. Russia enjoys a clear technological edge over the West, not just with viable hyper sonic missiles but with an integrated air defense system that is designed to shoot down hyper sonics that the West does not yet have in its inventory of weapons systems.

https://sonar21.com/maybe-ukraine-should-hire-tom-bodett/

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 3:53 utc | 178

Posted by: jonku | Nov 25 2022 0:09 utc | 124

If b will forgive us, I loved your outpouring, jonku, and would include bevin in our instinctively trespassing on b's post - we wouldn't wish to be emptying Ukraine here on this forum but filling it with the goodness that has been at the heart of our America celebrating a Thanksgiving day after a terrible wartime, brethren against brethren. That's the true, heartfelt thanksgiving I wish for Ukraine and the world itself.

The forum to which I also go, nakedcapitalism.com, has some goodhearted posters as well, and one today reminded us that the official Thanksgiving Day in the US wasn't instituted until after the American Civil War by Abraham Lincoln - that's the heritage I wholeheartedly endorse, and why having such a day matters.

Russia may have been the one country that magnificently held back the Nazis during WW2, and Putin now is making a huge contribution to completing that task. I can say that my own native land contributed as best it was able back then. Not yet now.

Today's distortions are a temporary abberation. The task is taking so long now because the heart of Russia is in it, but the west seems heartless. Always there remains, for Russia, the question, "Has this been enough?" Aways a pause to see if at last it has. Always, so far, it has not been.

So my question would be - for those sending more and more arms to the suffering Ukrainians - What, if you keep doing this, are you going to have at the end of it all? I know what there will be if Russia succeeds: they will help the losers rebuild. Will you do that? Are you doing it in Afghanistan? In Iraq? In Libya?

Leave Ukraine to Russia; she will help that nation rebuild.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 25 2022 4:03 utc | 179

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast
Blahblahblah stuff against Putin not doing sh!t in 2014. . .

Look dude we get it. You've been saying this for years. But here's the thing. You see, poor ol' Vlad just isn't as clever or as farsighted as you.

Sure, if you'd bothered to, you too could have run Russia and by 2014 raised it from the gutter, fought of the parasites in it's body politic and raised it the status of a world power and invaded the evil west with magical ultra velocity miisiles and massive million man armies all marching in lock step and while chanting your name in unison. . .

But you didn't did you? You selfishly decided to be a cartoonist (of which I'm a fan, btw) and make moolah by sticking your hands in other peoples mouths. And poor old Vlad was left to do his paltry best all by himself without the slightest help from you.

That was a decision YOU made dude. So yes, the entire reason for the current mess, as you so often point out is Vlads failure to attack in 2014, but that, as we now see was actually YOUR fault. Not Vlad's.

You need to own your responsibility here dude. Seriously.

Posted by: ZachM | Nov 25 2022 4:25 utc | 180

@ juliania | Nov 25 2022 4:03 utc | 183

if only the countries in the west would think as you do... happy thanksgiving juliania.. your presence at moa is a real blessing..

Posted by: james | Nov 25 2022 4:38 utc | 181

bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17
(MoA as a fine example of true Democracy - warts and all).

Thanks for collecting and putting into words all of the random undertones which have crossed my mind, and many others, since my arrival here a decade or so ago.
A worthy exercise.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Nov 25 2022 4:41 utc | 182

A heads up to followers of Pepe Escobar. He recently returned to Paris from his second home in Bangkok and has a new video with Danny Haiphong of The Left Lens. It's only the first half just over an hour long. Some highlights:

On BRICS: Indonesia applied at G20, Thailand applied at APEC

On G20: US and vassals wanted to turn it into anti-Russia propaganda win. ROW were horrified.

On Ukraine: Russia will take it all the way to Kiev. It will not tolerate a hostile Ukraine on its border. There will be regime change.

Posted by: Jun | Nov 25 2022 4:51 utc | 183

jonku @179--

Thanks so very much! I enjoyed an excellent 16 year-old Oregon Pinot Noir with my scratch-cooked T-Day meal. The wife made a version of smores for desert--very untraditional which is as it should be.

I toast to the good health of all barflies!!

Vintage Red @169--

I've held my tongue re, that particular rant; so, thanks for rendering it. The Plundering Nations's elite are all very similar in their POV except that now most of them are now being set up to be plundered by the last remaining Plunderer--the most vicious teenage kid who'll do almost anything to stay atop the hill.

If the Outlaw US Empire would cease its current behavior globally tomorrow, millions now living would be able to live instead of becoming its future victims. An ugly but all too true fact.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 25 2022 4:54 utc | 184

My opinion is that Russia will retain its economic/geopolitical ties to the Black Sea plus influence over many areas that are culturally and geopolitically more Russian than Ukrainian. To this end they will play aggressive defense (preemptive defense) until the war is ultimately settled through negotiation.

Posted by: Barmon_duMonet | Nov 25 2022 4:58 utc | 185

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 24 Nov 2022⚡️

#Belgorod Region:

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled the outskirts of #Shebekino.

#Northukrainian Direction (MAP):

▪️ Ukrainian DRGs are operating in the #Kiev region on the border with #Belarus near the #Denisovichi tract and the #Vilcha border crossing.

▪️ The AFU has moved artillery crews from the 43rd Brigade to the territories bordering the #Gomel region of #Belarus.

#Kharkov Region:

▪️ Kraken Battalion reconnaissance teams are operating near #Prudyanka and #Goptovka.

▪️ Units of the Ukrainian Terrotorial Defence have been moved to the area of #Izbitskoye.

#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ There are no significant changes, there has been a relative calm.

▪️ In the #Kupyansk - #Svatovo sector, the commanders of the Ukrainian 14th and 92nd Mechanized Brigades are carrying out rotations.

▪️ Enemy artillery is regularly shelling Russian strongholds near #Sinkovka.

▪️ In the #Lyman sector, Russian DRGs are conducting attacks on the AFU positions near #Torskoye.

▪️ Ukrainian command concentrates personnel and equipment in preparation for a large-scale offensive.

#Soledar Direction (MAP):

▪️ In the #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk) area, fighters of the Wagner PMC have taken control of a waste processing plant in the southeast of the city.

▪️ According to local residents, enemy units have blown up most of the road bridges in the suburbs of #Bakhmut.

▪️ Fighting in the #Soledar sector continues in the approaches to #Soledar city. The AFU command plans to rotate personnel there.

▪️ South of #Opytnoye, DPR People's Militia units are advancing towards #Kurdyumovka after the clearance of #Mayorsk is completed.

▪️ On the #Kurdyumovka - #Kirovo line, Russian soldiers managed to occupy at least five enemy strongholds west of #Zaitsevo.

#Lugansk People's Republic:

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled the villages of #Svatovo, #Stakhanov and #Sosnovy with barrel and rocket artillery, there are casualties among civilians.

#Donetsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ In the #Avdeyevka sector, the AFU command is planning a counteroffensive in the direction of the lost #Opytnoye. For this purpose, Territorial Defence units have been moved to #Avdeyevka.

▪️ In #Maryinka, the enemy unsuccessfully tries to stop the Russian offensive in the north and centre of of the town.

▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled the #Donetsk agglomeration again. #Donetsk, #Gorlovka, #Yasynuvata and other surrounding settlements came under fire.

#Zaporozhye Direction:

▪️ Artillery duels continue in #Zaporozhye region, Russian forces shelled targets in #Gulyaypole, #Orekhov, #Temirovka and #Chervon.

#Kherson Direction on Southern Front:

▪️ Russian missile forces and artillery have hit enemy positions in #Kherson, #Berislav, #Dudchany and #Stanislav.


https://t.me/sitreports/1202

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 5:05 utc | 186

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 24 2022 23:57 utc | 119

Re: Ammonia

🇬🇧🇺🇦🇹🇷On the situation around the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline

On November 19, the grain agreement between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN was extended for 120 days. One of the conditions for the extension of the deal put forward by the Russian side was the export of domestic ammonia through Odessa.

▪️The Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline was built in the 1970s to ensure the functioning of the Ukrainian chemical industry and the export of ammonia. In February, deliveries were suspended.

▪️The final section of the ammonia pipeline is the Odessa Port Plant (OPZ), which has facilities for processing ammonia into nitrogen fertilizer carbamide (urea). In April, the plant was mothballed.

▪️Ammonia is also widely used in industry and medicine - not only fertilizers are made from it, but also other products.

Who will earn on the export of ammonia?

▪️The ammonia pipeline, through which a little more than 10% of the annual output of Russian raw materials is exported, is used by Togliattiazot and Minudobreniya - the latter belongs to Arkady Rotenberg. All profits from supplies go to the Ukrainian company Agro Gas Trading, whose management, with the advent of Vladimir Zelensky to power, received a monopoly on income from the Odessa port plant.

Who consumes ammonia produced at the Odessa plant?

▪️According to the annual report of Togliattiazot, the main importers are the countries of Southern Europe and Turkey. The share of fertilizer supplies from Russia to the republic does not exceed 3%, while Russian fertilizers account for about 10% on the Turkish market.

▪️It is much more profitable for Turkish businesses to buy Russian ammonia instead of ready-made fertilizers and produce the final product from imported raw materials - for this, the domestic market is protected by protective duties, and fertilizer supplies are strictly limited.

🔻Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the need to resume the work of the ammonia pipeline: the authorities are discussing this issue at the UN. It is likely that the West is interested in solving the problem. In Turkey and Southern Europe, provided with gas, it will be possible to establish large-scale production of fertilizers from Russian raw materials - in Europe, in this way, they will be able to make up for the shortage of urea without abandoning the sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/22117

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 5:18 utc | 187

Please! USians or seppos, there are two continents of Americans.

Posted by: Peter Williams | Nov 25 2022 2:52 utc | 170

True, but there is only one place that refers to themselves as American. People is South America don't call themselves Americans, and neither does anyone else. Nor do the Central Americans. The level of obtuseness required not to understand what is meant by American, is ... astounding.

Seppo - had to look that one up. Septic Tank Yanks. That is brilliant. Sounds like something a 7 year old would make up.

Is this the best you could come up with? I would be embarrassed, as an adult, to be using such childish slurs.

While I understand that what my government is doing in the world is fucked up, and contrary to popular belief, we "seppos" are not in charge of anything. We have as much control over our government as you do (I mean how much control you have over the us government), which is to say, none.

I am not under the impression that because the government of a nation is doing something I dont like, that all the people who live in that country are cunts, unlike Mr. Williams.

I have meet a handful of Australians in my life and generally speaking they were very shallow and intellectually incurious people. I would think being called Australian is insulting in and of itself.

YMMV you cunt.

Posted by: David F | Nov 25 2022 5:22 utc | 188

That was a decision YOU made dude. So yes, the entire reason for the current mess, as you so often point out is Vlads failure to attack in 2014, but that, as we now see was actually YOUR fault. Not Vlad's.You need to own your responsibility here dude. Seriously.
Posted by: ZachM | Nov 25 2022 4:25 utc | 184

nice work :)
and all the whiners could take note as it applies across the board.

Posted by: K | Nov 25 2022 5:33 utc | 189

2nd attempt

Below is a Xinhuanet posting about a prisoner swap


KIEV, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- After the latest prisoner swap with Russia, 50 Ukrainian servicemen have returned home, head of the Ukrainian President's Office Andriy Yermak said Thursday.

Among those released were two officers, as well as 48 sergeants and soldiers, Yermak wrote on Telegram.

Most of the released soldiers served in Ukraine's Naval Forces, the National Guard, and the Armed Forces, he added.

Yermak did not provide the details on the number of Russian troops released by Ukraine under the deal.

The efforts to free more Ukrainian servicemen from Russian captivity are underway, the official said.

Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner exchange in March.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 25 2022 6:17 utc | 190

Regarding the parentage of Justin Trudeau, it really would seem that Fidel Castro is his dad. I have researched this before at greater length, but just now, this article was the first I hit on: Of Course Fidel Castro is Justin Trudeau’s Dad. Nobody Has ‘Debunked’ Anything (Karen Leibowitcz)

Posted by: pepa65 | Nov 25 2022 6:36 utc | 191

One thing that has been suspicious is chemical tanker ships which some weeks ago docked at Yuzhne (NE of Odessa). They could be still going, haven't checked. Don't know what the deal is there, but it would be a miracle if they aren't transporting fuel moved by the UAF. They surely have contributed increasing UAF mobility in SE Ukraine area.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 19:52 utc | 49

I do recall the Ukies having problems with fuel over the summer, then those stories kind of stopped...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 25 2022 6:57 utc | 192

Land bridge to Crimea: results of a month of work

Since October 27, part of the trucks delivering goods to and from Crimea were allowed to bypass the Kerch bridge and the ferry across the territory of new regions.

And by the 20th of November, from 300 to 700 trucks pass through the territory of the Northern Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov every day. From 400 to 500 trucks pass through the ferry a day.

So the land bridge to the Crimea has started working and its capacity, despite the risks and novelty of the route, is already higher than that of the crossing. At the same time, fortunately, I did not see any news about shelling / blowing up trucks in the new territories, so the route can be called quite safe.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/22238

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 6:57 utc | 193

150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
fancy term for wheel barrows. i had to read it twice

Posted by: hankster | Nov 25 2022 7:01 utc | 194

Interesting read by Andrei Martyanov

“When the United States develops new types of weapons, Russia will already have more advanced technology. Therefore, the lag between Russia and the United States will remain at the level of 5-7 years,” summed up Yuri Knutov.

The "catch up" is in quotation marks deliberately, because as Knutov (and many other serious specialists in the filed, not least the President of Russia himself) note for years--the lag of 5-7 years which will be permanent (why, is a separate issue) will constantly mean not only better and generation ahead weapons, but systems of countering of appearing US weapons as a systems of previous generations.


Hypersonic Ad Nauseam

Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 7:11 utc | 195

Hypersonic Ad Nauseam Posted by: Down South | Nov 25 2022 7:11 utc | 199

I distinctly remember how in the unipolar moment in the 1990s the Pentagon had all these ultra high-tech gadgets coming up in the pipeline. It looked almost alien (and of course plenty took that literally too).

But then the US went to war in the deserts of the Middle East, trillions were wasted, and somehow very little came out of those hyper advanced projects that we were reading about in the 90s.

In this case, various hypersonic planes were proposed, some were even tested as prototypes, didn't work very well, and then nothing moved beyond that stage. Missiles weren't even worked on seriously. And here we are...

P.S. The scariest part about it all is that most of the new Russian doomsday weapons are actually late-Soviet developments that were put on pause when the USSR collapsed, and that appear to have been dusted off once the US bombed Serbia and pulled out of the ABM treaty and once Russia was in a better condition financially to fund their completion. Which has at least a couple important implications. First, the US didn't really win the Cold War technologically, the Soviets probably had a lot of aces up their sleeves had the upper layers in the party not decided to dismantle the system from within. Second, what has been started in the last 20 years as brand new projects is anyone's guess. Maybe it's not much and Russia is now consuming the last scraps of its Soviet legacy. But maybe they did invest properly in the development of the next generations of scientists and engineers in the MIC and those young specialists have been plowing ahead far ahead of the competition...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 25 2022 7:40 utc | 196

I have given up on predicting anything since I obviously do not get it.

If I tried regardless, i would suggest that it would be pretty stupid to mobilize 300.000 men without using them. If its just about defending, the kremlin could have sent the soldiers in active duty without disrupting 300.000 lifes. Those men cant be kept in service forever. So whats the plan?

Maybe they will just wait and see if the ukraine dissolves without any military push just by keeping the country black and cold and possibly hungry.

If this collapse doesnt happen they may start an offensive in january near the end of the intended mobilization period.

Maybe. I dunno but what for do you retrain so many men?

But maybe just nothing really ever happens. The russians send their wagners to local offensives and nothing else happens.

Posted by: Orgel | Nov 24 2022 20:05 utc | 54

Another point that has been raised is that countries, including the f-ing Saudis, would not be reorienting towards China + Russia the way they have over the last six months if they weren't confident in a Russian victory. Their behavior would make no sense otherwise, and presumably they have intelligence information regarding the actual situation that we do not.

So that fact alone is a very strong argument in favor of the Russians being comfortably in the driver seat. But you never know, and it sure has looked rather ugly the last three months...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 25 2022 7:41 utc | 197

If the Outlaw US Empire would cease its current behavior globally tomorrow, millions now living would be able to live instead of becoming its future victims. An ugly but all too true fact.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 25 2022 4:54 utc | 188

***

Thank you, I fully agree. I remember you called our attention to Putin's address on 30 September in which he directly called out the collective West's colonialist project—I've been viewing events through this lens since. He exposed them in a way that couldn't help but rally around Russia every country under the thumbs of the Anglo-European empires, as Russia takes NATO down on the battlefield, turns their sanctions against them and reveals them as the racists they are.

Some here who take my anti-imperialism as being knee-jerk anti-US sentiment are dumbstruck whenever I talk about the positive potential this country could have once liberated from the billionaires and their minions. Not only would millions be saved from becoming the empire's victims, but with the US on board as a true partner in the coming multipolar world, tens if not hundreds of millions more could rise from the empire's debt slavery into real sovereignty and development. Not to mention freedom from our own debt and rent slavery within the US.

Fed nonstop dystopian and nihilist visions of the future, acquaintances are stunned to hear me speak of what we could be capable of were we to retool the MIC to instead join forces with BRICS to build shared global prosperity. The Empire's crimes against humanity are beyond description, but its crimes against the human spirit are as hateful—if we can't even imagine sovereignty, peace and win-win cooperation, we certainly can't organize to bring it into being. In Cuba this is spoken of as the Battle of Ideas, and if we ever doubt its importance all we have to do is behold all the trolls and bots sent against sites such as MoA.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Nov 25 2022 7:42 utc | 198

If Ukraine can't evict Russia, and Russia can't defeat Ukraine, then what would peace look like?

Suppose, Russia consolidates control over the Donbas over the winter and suffers no additional major setbacks like they did in the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensive. They've got Crimea, Zaporozhzhia, southern Kherson, Luhahsnk and Donetsk. They cannot realistically take any more territory without mobilizing more men. Conversely, Ukraine is exhausted and unable to project power, but still dug in west of Donbas, and now firmly in control of Kharkiv.

What then? How do you wrap the war up?

When I try to imagine in, I figure it ends up like North/South Korea. You never wrap the war up, you just have flimsy truces and perceptual flare ups. It ends up being more of the 2014 - 2022 war. I suppose that, eventually, one side regenerates to the point where they're ready to take war on again and the cycle repeats.

I can't see a grand way out of this. It seems like it's likely to be a fixed feature of the geopolitical situation for years.

Posted by: GoFast | Nov 24 2022 20:25 utc | 59

The Russians don't really have a choice. The war started for the following reasons:

1) It's completely unacceptable to have a militantly anti-Russian Ukraine. The strategic buffer has gone after the collapse of the USSR, and the Donbass is a very short distance from the Caspian Sea and the southern tip of the Urals. Had Hitler started from Kharkov rather than from Lvov, he would have won the war.

2) It's even less acceptable to situate nukes there, and that was a very realistic prospect. With flying times of five minutes to Moscow

3) To rub it in even more, this was all being done by utilizing the literal Nazis in Western Ukraine as the blunt tool to drive those policies through. They're not even neo-Nazis (i.e. some young punk LARP-ers, though there is an element of that), they are the actual thing, genealogically. And we know what that means for the Russians

4) It is completely unacceptable to allow genocide against millions of Russians, or to allow tens of millions of Ukrainians (who speak Russian and are really Russians if we are to be honest) to be brainwashed into being Ukronazis. Where does that process stop if that operation is successfully carried out?

Given those reasons for the war, freezing the conflict along the current line of contact is a total strategic defeat for Russia, as it dos not really solve any of those issues. And a real victory can only be achieved if Ukraine ceases to exist and then the painful process of de-Ukrainization of the population begins, and the Nazi scum is properly cleansed this time (clearly what was done in the decade after WWII was not enough). Can they do it? If the will is there, they can, but it will be hard, and it's not clear that the will is indeed there.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 25 2022 7:43 utc | 199

Indeed the Carpatho-Rusyns are like the other minorities within the ukrainian state an repressed and oppressed small (dozens of thousands) minority, subject to forced "ukrainization"/"ruthenization", for quite a while after exit from the USSR, but in particular by the post-2014 fascist banderite governments.

Posted by: Blissex | Nov 24 2022 19:20 utc | 29

After WWII the Rusyns petitioned Stalin to include Transcarpathia into the RSFSR, not into Ukraine. But got turned down.

History would have been very, very different had their request been fulfilled - imagine the current situation but with another Kaliningrad there...

In fact there was another appeal, this time towards Putin, at some point in April or so (though I can't find the link now), not to forget about them.

Also, in case anyone doubts that Rusyns are not Ukrainian nationalists, look at the various electoral maps:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Ukrainian_presidential_election#/media/File:%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/06/Kudelia-Figure2.jpg

And you will immediately notice, if you pay close attention, that Transcarpathia is much more similar to central Ukraine than to neighboring Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk. And if you look at a more fine-grained map:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/2012_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election_-_List_results.svg/1200px-2012_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election_-_List_results.svg.png

You will see that it clusters with central Ukraine because it is split internally into areas much closer to Eastern Ukraine, which is the Rusyns, and others inhabited by more nationalist-minded people, so it averages out to something like Poltava.

7. The nebulous denazification, which essentially means having a neutral or possibly friendly Ukrainian government, and one which did not persecute minorities or ethnic enclaves- especially Russians, but also the other minorities.

Posted by: watcher | Nov 25 2022 2:09 utc | 158

The truth is that actual "Ukrainians" are a minority in Ukraine.

There is no genetic difference between "Southern Russian" (there is some Fino-Ugric admixture towards the Urals and in the European North, but we are talking about the southern regions here) and "Ukrainian". And "Russian" is an acknowledged minority in Ukraine. Yet in the same time most "Ukrainians" speak Russian. So the question naturally comes up - if you are genetically indistinguishable from Russians, and you speak Russian, than other than your passport, what exactly is it that makes you "Ukrainian"? Of course, this is one of the many reasons we have a war. But aside from that, if you look at it from that perspective, actual Ukrainians in Ukraine are no more than a quarter to a third of the population, and concentrated in the far West of the country. Which underscores the monstrosity of what has been happening over the last decade - the West successfully managed to instill genocidal hatred towards the larger Russian population among a subset of it, e.g. Kharkov used to be thoroughly Russian and even declared a KNR in 2014, now it's a fortress of the Ukronazis...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 25 2022 7:45 utc | 200

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