Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 24, 2022

Ukraine - Running On Empty

Yesterday the Pentagon announced another transfer of weapons to the Ukrainian military:

According to the Pentagon, the package includes:

Additional munitions for NASMAS
150 heavy machine guns with thermal imagery sights to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
Additional ammunition for HIMARS
200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds
10,000 120mm mortar rounds
High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)
150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs)
Over 100 light tactical vehicles
Over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition
Over 200 generators
Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment

The $400 million is being sent to Ukraine through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows President Biden to send arms straight from US military stockpiles.

The Pentagon is clearly scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Additional munitions for NASMAS

NASMAS is an air defense systems that uses re-purposed air to air missiles (active radar homing AIM-120 AMRAAM) in a ground to air mode.

Yesterday one of those missiles was used in Kiev but missed its target. It hit an apartment block and killed several people:

The missile that hit an apartment block in Kiev today was a US-made AIM-120C launched from one of the newly arrived NASMAS air defense systems, donated to Ukraine in the last months. Local people shared on social media photos of the wreckage of the missile. Even though Ukraine blamed Russia for the strike, it turns out the missile was not Russian but American and was fired by Ukrainian troops.

The fragment shown in the photo has the word LIFT as the American AIM-120C. This is an anti-aircraft missile for the NASAMS systems which were recently donated to Ukraine. By analyzing the photos which Ukrainian citizens published themselves the missile which hit their residential building can be easily identified as American.

Heavy machine guns with thermal image sights against drones.

This is a really bad sign. I have tried to find recent photos of machine guns used in air defense mode. There were only antique ones plus this model picture.


bigger

Several decades ago we trained to shoot down helicopters and planes with the machine guns attached to the top of our battle tanks. Despite firing from a stable platform and spending lots of ammunition our hit rates were really lousy. That's why no army I know of is still using this method. Most of the UAV's used in Ukraine for reconnaissance are electrical. They are unlikely to show up in a thermal sight. The propeller driven Iranian drones, probably made in Russia, are hot and make a lot of noise. They can be targeted but are reasonably fast and one has to act equally fast to get them. The Lancet kamikaze drones used by the Russian military in Ukraine fly low and fast. A machine gun team will have little chances when such a drones flies towards it.

Those machine guns Ukraine will get, minus those to be sold on the black market, can not be effective as air defense. They will likely end up to be used in a ground mode to defend this or that frontline ditch. They are good for that until some artillery round or infantry fighting vehicle comes along and takes them out.

Additional ammunition for HIMARS

HIMARS is the wonder weapon that wasn't. The reach of some 70 kilometers is reasonable but one also needs very good targeting data to put them to use. The Russians have learned from the early HIMARS successes and have become much better now with camouflaging their positions.

200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds

Nice to have - but again only if you have reliable targeting data. What is shocking is that there is no other 155 mm ammunition in this delivery. What are those M-777 guns that still exist in Ukraine supposed to fire?

10,000 120mm mortar rounds

That's not a lot either. Previously the U.S. had given Ukraine 20 120 mm mortar with 135,000 120mm mortar rounds. The 10,000 new rounds will likely be spend in less than a week.

High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs)

These are air to ground missiles used to target enemy radar. They have been jury rigged to fit on the few SU-27 fighter jets the Ukraine has received from some east European country. There have been reports that Russian air defenses usually hit these missiles before they reach their target.

Today the New York Times reported that one such missile, fired back in September, had hit an apartment building in Kramatorsk:

New York Times journalists were able to gather and identify distinct metal fragments left behind at the site of an earlier strike, in September in eastern Ukraine, providing a window into where the billions of dollars of United States’ military aid sent to Ukraine can sometimes land.

“Three people got wounded, they say. No dead. It hit the apartment where no one lives, and in the next one, people got hurt,” said Olga Vasylivna, a resident who lived adjacent to where the missile hit.

The trucks Ukraine will get may be useful but will there be enough diesel to fuel them?

20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition is again practically nothing. The typical combat load for one infantry soldier is 240 rounds. Machine gun teams carry some 6,000 rounds. The frontline in Ukraine is 1,000 kilometer long. When one does the math one finds that these 20,000,000 rounds are practically nothing.

There is currently a roaring black market for generators in Ukraine. Those 200 new ones will be very welcome. They will most likely end up in Lviv or Kiev.

Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment

The story of the U.S. weapon support for Ukraine is one of diminishing quantity and quality. First the U.S. gave 143 M-777 155 mm systems to Ukraine. These proved to have a high breakage rate and were also easily targeted. Then the U.S. had run out of 155 mm ammunition it could give away. It next offered 36 105 mm howitzers and 180,000 105mm rounds. Same story. After that came the 120 mm mortar.

Artillery is usually fought against with counter artillery. When battle radar pics up a flying artillery round one can calculate where its has been fired from. Then a dedicated counter artillery battery, usually with longer range, will be tasked to fire at that position. In a good organized unit that takes less than one or two minutes.

The M-777 guns have a firing range of about 20 kilometers. That is somewhat equal to 152 mm guns the Russians are using. The 105 mm guns came next. Their range is about 11 kilometer. The 120 mm mortar can reach about 7 kilometer.

Aside from HIMARS Ukraine's front artillery has become smaller with less reach than those systems used on the other side. That will make it  easier to counter it. Ukraine also has an acute lack of ammunition for those few weapons that still exist. It has long lost the artillery war.

The war in Ukraine is waged on an industrial level. But the 'west' and its Ukrainian proxy are not prepared for industrial warfare. In a longer piece - It's War, Josep, But Not As We Know It - Aurelian explains why that is the case:

First, much of the policy impetus on Ukraine comes from Anglo-Saxon countries, whose history of warfare, and thinking about warfare, is essentially expeditionary and limited.
...
The type of military operations that Europeans have actually conducted since 1945, and especially since 1989, have tended to follow this model.
...
The second factor is simply that in general the West’s wars have been limited liability ones, where there have been few casualties at home.
...
For the Russians, geography mandated a different set of criteria. Always a massive country with a relatively large population and long borders, the nation has suffered foreign military invasions repeatedly in its history. It is used to being obliged to fight on its own territory, and in World War II alone, suffered nearly thirty million dead, a large proportion of them civilians. Thus, national defence is literally a life and death issue, and thinking about, and planning for, war, takes place at a massively higher and more complex strategic level.
...
This Russian experience inevitably produces a way of looking at conflict which is radically different from western one, with the proviso that the West itself has had to painfully learn similar lessons during two World Wars, only to promptly forget them each time.
...
The Soviet and Russian militaries have a long tradition of studying the terrible past wars of their country, and there are a number obvious conclusions from any such analysis. One is the importance of sheer numbers, of personnel, of equipment and ammunition. In a long war, which the Russians, unlike the West, have always expected to fight, these things matter a great deal.

Up to 2012 there was a Ukrainian company near Kiev which still produced artillery rounds for Russia. I no longer find the link to that story but the numbers produced for Russia was some 2,000,000 million per year. There is no way the 'west' can match the Russian stockpiles.

Russia expert Gordon M. Hahn looks at the upcoming Russian Winter Offensive. Only with a ceasefire can Ukraine and its sponsors avert the upcoming catastrophe. This for three reasons:

First, the Russian hammer is about to fall on Ukraine. The gloves are coming off; electric energy stations, bridges, and even ‘decision centers’ such as central Kiev’s government buildings are being targeted. ... What will the sociopolitical situation be like when these critical infrastructures are in complete collapse and temperatures are 20 degrees colder? Russia will be moving closer to the strategy of ‘shock and awe’, fully destroying all infrastructure – military or otherwise – as the US did in Serbia and Iraq and will likely take less care now to avoid civilian casualties.

After the infrastructures are completely destroyed or incapacitated, Russia’s reinforcements of 380,000 regular and newly mobilized troops will have been fully added into Russia’s forces across southeastern Ukraine. ... A winter offensive by some half a million troops will make substantial gains on those three fronts and multiply Ukrainian losses in personnel and materiel`, which are already high. This could lead easily to a collapse of Ukrainian forces on one or more front. On the backs of such a success Russian President Putin might also make another attempt to threaten Kiev ...

Second, the West is suffering from Ukraine fatigue. NATO countries’ arms supplies have been depleted beyond what is tolerable, and social cohesion is collapsing in the face of double-digit inflation and economic recession. All this makes Russia the winner on the strategic level and is forcing Washington and Brussels to seek at least a breathing spell by way of a ceasefire.
...
Third, Ukraine’s greatest political asset – Zelenskiy himself – just got devalued, putting at even greater risk Ukraine’s political stability. ... For now, in order to keep the West on board, Zelenskiy is rumored to be pushing Ukrainian armed forces commander Viktor Zalyuzhniy to start a last pre-winter offensive in northern Donetsk (Svatovo and Severodonetsk) or Zaporozhe in order to put a stop to the West’s ceasefire murmurs and reboost support. At the same time there is talk of continuing Zelenskiy-Zalyuzhniy tensions over the latter’s good press and star status in the West. ... On the background of the deteriorating battlefield and international strategic situation, such civil-military tensions are fraught with the potential for a coup. ...
...
We may be reaching the watershed moment in the Ukrainian war. No electricity, no army, no society.
...
All of the above and the approaching presidential elections scheduled in Moscow, Kiev and Washington the year after next make this winter pivotal for all the war's main parties.

Reading the two pieces quoted above I come to the conclusion war has been lost - by Ukraine as well as by its supporters.

NATO, already deeply involved, could still want to change that by fully joining the war. But I do not think that the U.S. military, nor its European NATO allies, will have the stomach for that.

Posted by b on November 24, 2022 at 17:54 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Two more weeks!

Posted by: Bernd | Nov 24 2022 17:58 utc | 1

It used to be said that "With the USA you prosper, against the USA you decline." This seems no longer the case.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 24 2022 18:05 utc | 2

30 years ago the US Marine corp told us if we were under air attack lie flat on our backs and shoot one round from a rifle strait up into the air every 5-10 seconds and this is more effective than trying to aim at the flying plane.

Posted by: Gregory Puecell | Nov 24 2022 18:05 utc | 3

the problem is the people making decisions for the US military/NATO don't bear the risks of escalation. they are possibly deluded enough to believe nuclear war is off the table, and otherwise they are safe in Washington or Brussels. it's like limited liability in corporate law. these people live in fantasy land.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 24 2022 18:08 utc | 4

Are they really scraping the bottom of the barrel? That sounds similar to how Russia is running out of munitions.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Nov 24 2022 18:09 utc | 5

thanks b...

the whole concept of built to last doesn't seem applicable here..

quote "The Soviet and Russian militaries have a long tradition of studying the terrible past wars of their country..." i don't believe this is true of the usa or uk for that matter...

i am not convinced of hahns conclusions on how russia will mount an offensive with the larger number of soldiers available... i can see them not doing that and trying to freeze this thing in a more basic way.. i could be wrong... thanks for the links and all..

Posted by: james | Nov 24 2022 18:10 utc | 6

I've been in Kievan winters. Firewood, Porta-potties and flashlights would be more appropriate.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 24 2022 18:11 utc | 7

Looks like Zelensky will now have to go direct to the NRA to get the large amount of ammo the wingnuts store.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Nov 24 2022 18:11 utc | 8

To the last Ukrainian!

Posted by: leaf | Nov 24 2022 18:12 utc | 9

I come to the conclusion war has been lost - by Ukraine as well as by its supporters.

The West's war has failed and cannot be won, but it is a long long way from being lost over.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 24 2022 18:15 utc | 10

Here in Canada I read the CBC from time to time to find out what I'm supposed to believe. Absolutely scary how misinformed people are in this country about this conflict

Posted by: Chris N | Nov 24 2022 18:19 utc | 11

Thanks for the posting b

I agree that Ukraine is down for the count and believe that Russia is setting up to push more of its SMO intentions. The West is going to call for cease fire with Ukraine capitulation and I hope Russia does not give it to them.

As I noted on the last thread, the UK is providing "unwavering" support for Ukraine by sending 3 search-and-rescue helicopters to Ukraine.

I expect more increasingly desperate attempts by Z to regain control of the narrative in Ukraine and the same by empire in Ukraine and other hot spots in the world. The civilization war is raging in a MAD environment....phew!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 24 2022 18:20 utc | 12

B, but I think those controlling those militaries will indeed have stomach enough for all of them. They have so far, no matter their losses.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Nov 24 2022 18:20 utc | 13

The MSM are already whinging that putler is weaponising the refugees from country 404. It's the obvious outcome. The west hoped to wage a guerilla war on extended ruskie lines a la Afghanistan mk2 but that's backfired since the bait was not taken. Now the west must look after 10m+ refugees this winter. Enjoy.

Posted by: Jon | Nov 24 2022 18:26 utc | 14

Evidence of China --> Russia logistics flow.

Antonov A124 cargo planes of Russias Volga-Dnepr carrier are making frequent visits to Zhengzhou China.

https://www.radarbox.com/data/aircraft/A124

Pictures ==> https://t.me/ChDambiev/20860

Posted by: too scents | Nov 24 2022 18:29 utc | 15

The big picture.

It Was Never About Ukraine by Ted Snider at Antiwar

This episode of the great game going to go on until either Nato or Russia/China give up — or else MAD.

Posted by: Tom Hickey | Nov 24 2022 18:38 utc | 16

This website is a tribute not just to the proprietor but to the idea of democracy.
The general conclusions reached here over the past nine months (for example) have consistently outperformed the media, the Academy and the political castes which amount to an incredibly expensive and complex and enormously staffed engine designed -in theory at least- to arrive at a realistic assessment of the situation.
As for us here at MoA, where you are about ten times more likely to discover what's going on in the world than in any medium of the dominant class- than the New Yorker, The Guardian, BBC or even the favoured forums of the intelligentsia such as the Reviews of Books, The Economist or Foreign affairs- here, as in a democracy, anyone can contribute. And just about anything which is not totally irrelevant or offensively obscene, is allowed. Every kind of eccentricity is permitted. The voices of communists are in constant struggle with those of fascists, liberals are welcome. Those who hate Russia are heard from. Those who hate Putin are listened to. Those who believe the SMO is a disaster have a forum.
But so do those who believe that all is proceeding according to plan.
And there are no qualifications demanded of contributors. There is no literacy requirement, no Academic Degrees or resumes of experience, closeness to power or personal beauty are judged. All that matters is how close the poster comes to the truth, which , in the end, and usually sooner rather than later, is invariably revealed.
That is the way that democracy works- everyone gets to express opinions and they are judged by the minds they change. Or fail to change.
The forums that we are in competition with-heavily moderated in many cases- featuring politicians, 'insiders' with sources near power, experts with degrees dripping from them, career security and personal wealth, are wrong today: check them out. They have been wrong for years and they will be wrong tomorrow.
Of course the primary reason for this is that they are propaganda outlets. But the basis of any propaganda is the idea, of its sponsors and manufacturers, that it is necessary for experts and 'good' people to counter the misinformation that comes from an uninformed populace.
And here we are, for the most part representative of that populace-nobody is paid, nobody has a scholarship to finance his studies, most of us are just ordinary people. And not necessarily very honest either.
But the result is what matters and here, at the end of a thread you will generally get a sense of what is actually happening in the world.
And it is not what the Professors, Generals, Ministers and Clergy tell us. It is generally exactly the opposite.
And that is why democracy, rather than rule by wealthy, clever, educated, thoughtful, certifiably respectable elites, is the system that will save us and the planet.
"Come, Let Us Reason Together.." the Bible suggested. And in places like this, we do and the truth, dripping with mud and shit, blood and booze, spite and envy, madness and idiocy, emerges.
All of which is probably "off topic."
So I will copy it and save it.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

In Canada, it is Chrystia Freeland the real PM..Trudeau us a pathetic poodle.
Chrystia is certainly a CIA agent, loved by the USA for her efficiency in manipulating Trudeau in promoting the acceptance as refugees for all Ukranians with a 3 years residency visa even for Ukrainins who have been living in France or Germany for 20 years. The key is a ukrainian passport and all the doors open with 9000$ per month for a family...
Krystia Freeland is preparing herself to become the next PM of Canada. God help us!

Posted by: virgile | Nov 24 2022 18:47 utc | 18

US pulled out of the war against Russia with the last Sullivan Patrushev meeting. Time now to march on Beijing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 18:49 utc | 19

@ b

Good assessment there, but we can be certain that none of those weapon systems will change the things on the battlefield.
Most of those systems are not really ready to be winterised on the fly (different lubricants, gas pressures etc.) and are very difficult to maintain on the spot without very good logistics.
Also they perform the best in a combined manner with unified US envisaged net centric combined arms warfare.
Ukraine is light years away of achieving this, let alone the fact that RF military is not waging its electronic warfare to the full or to even modest capacity. Here and there GPS goes off, and on very few spots there is some EW activity.

RF is not showing off its real capabilities in basically nothing they did so far.
4 days of missile attacks in October and November and some more modest in the beginning of the SMO, added for a good measure 2 Zircon and 1 Khinzai attacks. Those were demonstrated and used for test firing into this huge covert NATO base in the Ukrainian west and devastating it many times over than it was needed. A message was sent, but not more than that.
All together, that was maximum of 5-6 days of missile activity, all that really lasting few hours each day.
To us, it looks as a lot, but in a real war that is nothing.
No overstretch there for RF in diminishing its arsenal capacity.

So everything NATO/US sends is like drops on hot sand in quantity and quality, too.

I am pretty much convinced that all those 'wunderwaffen' that pours into Ukraine is definitely not giving the AFU any edge over RF weaponry.
155 mm NATO shell is not much more devastating than Russian 152 mm.
Tornado - S is 300 mm calibre reactive rocket as opposed to 233 mm HI-MARS. Probably there are other comparisons and examples, but the truth of the matter is - no weapons that NATO/US can send into Ukraine will change anything or be so much better than any RF equivalent.

And talking of money poured in, what is the price of a daily NATO AWACS and Intel gathering flights and refuelling operations for wings in the air? Not to mention all other maintenance costs, parts, and stuff.
So 400 million in funny money is really nothing.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 24 2022 18:53 utc | 20

I come to the conclusion war has been lost - by Ukraine as well as by its supporters.
I have not looked at our tabloid newspapers for years, I thought they had gone more or less extinct. But today I stopped at a petrol station and saw they had some papers. "Let's see what they say on the front page", I thought. OK it was stuff like "Experts say Putin will be gone by spring" and similar nonsense. I will not look at tabloids again for several more years.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 24 2022 18:59 utc | 21

Posted by: bevin | 24 november 2022 18:45 UTC | 17
Thank you bevin, for your true words!

Posted by: Northern Eve | Nov 24 2022 19:01 utc | 22

All of which is probably "off topic."
Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

What you just said bevin is not so much 'off' topic as it is 'under' topic.
That is, it underlies and supports all the topics here.
Thanks for saying all that. And thanks too for your many valuable contributions.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 24 2022 19:02 utc | 23

If the current Ukrainian organized state collapses, the people themselves will in one part invite the Russians and in the other part NATO.

It will be interesting to see how will that play out. Maybe a mad dash will ensue.

The problem I see is that just before the state collapse, NATO may rationalise entering the war to “protect the people” as a mandate.

Posted by: alek_a | Nov 24 2022 19:02 utc | 24

@bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

Wonderful post, so true. Thanks.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 24 2022 19:04 utc | 25

It's hard I think to assess the meaning of the relatively meager arms shipment: The US genuinely out of supplies or the military not too keen on rewarding the Ukrainian missile attack on Poland generously? (I'm still inclined to think that was deliberate, not an accident.)

The conclusion of the excerpt from Aurelian concludes with the claim the Soviet and Russian militaries understand the importance of sheer numbers. Given the deliberate and extreme lack of "sheer numbers" in the SMO, it's hard to see how the limited reinforcement still counts as sheer numbers. And, Aurelian can type "Soviet and Russian" militaries, but Putin, like his master Yeltsin before him, has been a resolute foe of the Soviets from very early in his career. The Russian military of today is not the Red Army, it stands against the Red Army, nor is it in any sense a successor.

The Gordon Hahn excerpt starts by gloating about how the Russians are taking the gloves off and destroying all infrastructure, in a piece touting a winter offensive. Nobody sensible plans an offensive by destroying all the bridges, which is a pretty surefire way of blocking your own victory parade. Every indication from that is the Russians do not expect to need any bridges very far inside territory currently held by Ukraine.

Hahn's excerpt continues by doom-saying about how inflation and recession will destroy the West, or at least it's social cohesion. This last rather implies Hahn thinks the wicked sheeple will be forced to see the errors of their ways or some such nonsense. The war against Russia is not due to popular demand in any sense. A huge concerted propaganda effort to convince people that Russia started the war---almost universally propagated by the overwhelming majority of both liberals and conservatives, especially in the academy---has had its effect in selling the war. But a mere majority of people turning against the war won't change policy. As the joke has it, if elections changed things, they'd make them illegal. (The ones trying to make minority rule the law are the allegedly anti-war Republicans, by the war.) Further, Hahn is incorrect as to the dreadfulness of inflation. Inflation is not good, but the special horror of inflation for the owners is that it decreases the value of their money. Being the people with the most money, they easily confuse this with the apocalypse. As for recession, the central banks are deliberately inducing recession to lower wages/increase profits. The ruling class will not be deterred by the policy they favor. Hahn is out of his depth here, completely.

As to the last part, the notion that Zelensky matters as anything but a figurehead is absurd. And, as a figurehead, he can be removed by a noble death at any moment and his symbolic value remains. Whether a fascist firebrand shoots him or not, all that is necessary is to say, "The Russians did it!"

Half a million men is still not sheer numbers. Lukashenko's Belarus is not in the plus column so far as troops are concerned, because Lukashenko has not privatized the economy. Putin drew back from the self-defeating excesses of Yeltsin but Putin is a vicious Yetlstinite in politics. As such he is not a friend to Lukas. And this by the way deeply affects the genuine structural possibilities in cooperation with China. I think a lot of the admiration for China is a foolish optimism about how a reformed capitalism with social discipline really does have a future...but there's only so far the capitalist roaders in China can go before they need to seize state power in China and truly remake their society.

Putin, so far as I can see, still has no more endgame for Ukraine than for Syria.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 24 2022 19:05 utc | 26

Here in Canada I read the CBC from time to time to find out what I'm supposed to believe. Absolutely scary how misinformed people are in this country about this conflict

Posted by: Chris N | Nov 24 2022 18:19 utc | 11

Did you hear Canada's Chief Russophobe, Freeland at the Trucker - Emergencies Act inquiry today saying if they did not act decisively against the protesters, Putin would have taken it as a sign of weakness? LOLOLOL

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 19:12 utc | 27

In response to
"
Putin, so far as I can see, still has no more endgame for Ukraine than for Syria.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 24 2022 19:05 utc | 26
"

The thing is steven, there are more nations than Russia in this civilization war and your attempt to isolate it from a bigger picture view is typical of propaganda efforts to the contrary. The issue is more, how long can empire prop up it perfidy with more perfidy? Going MAD is the chicken shit way out of this.

/////////


@ bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17 with the MoA bar rant.....well done sir!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 24 2022 19:14 utc | 28

«Ruthenians? ... Actually the more precise term for this ethno-linguistic group is 'Carpatho-Rusyn'.»

The terms "Rusyn", "Ruthenian", "Russian", have had both similar and different meanings over the centuries, but the current Carpatho-Rusyns are not the "Ruthenians" in the sense of of Petliura/Bandera/Dontsov, of the heirs of then Kingdom of Ruthenia, the polonized east slavs.

Indeed the Carpatho-Rusyns are like the other minorities within the ukrainian state an repressed and oppressed small (dozens of thousands) minority, subject to forced "ukrainization"/"ruthenization", for quite a while after exit from the USSR, but in particular by the post-2014 fascist banderite governments.

https://www.refworld.org/docid/403dd2220.html
«Members of the Rusyn community claim that the Ukrainian government is perpetrating a deliberate campaign of forced assimilation of the minority (RIMC 2003b; RONA 23 Aug. 2003, 7). In a 2003 letter to the editor of The Washington Times, Thomas A. Brenzovich, president of the United States chapter of the Carpatho-Rusyn Society, called Ukrainian policies "a long-standing ... effort to assimilate Carpatho-Rusyns and to destroy their religious, linguistic and cultural heritage (Washington Times 27 Oct. 2003).»

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/10/08/rusyns-the-forgotten-minority-of-ukraine/
«We are an East Slavic people, not unlike Belarusians, Russians and Ukrainians, although our history is much different from any of theirs. Shaped by the great Carpathians, Hungarian administration, mass Vlach migrations and Slovak influence overtime, Rusyns developed a unique culture, language and identity.»

https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/10/08/rusyns-the-forgotten-minority-of-ukraine/
«Of the estimated 1.5 million people of ethnic Rusyn background, just 70,000 declared themselves Rusyns on the latest national census. This number is growing with every new report, however, so there is room for hope. Now, every country besides Ukraine recognises Rusyns as a distinct people.»

Posted by: Blissex | Nov 24 2022 19:20 utc | 29

17 bevin | Nov 24 2022 ARDDERCHOG BEVIN YN WIR. Totally agree. An excellent summary. Wish I had said that. You have encapsulated so much of why I love my daily visits, here in the SE corner of Wales, to the Moon of Alabama. Dal ati bevin. Your ' we do and the truth, dripping with mud and shit, blood and booze' would hve made Ezra Pound smile I'm sure.

Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Nov 24 2022 19:21 utc | 30

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia%E2%80%99s-missiles-won%E2%80%99t-break-ukrainian-war-machine-205936?page=0%2C1

Did anyone think that the "Russia is running out of missiles" claim is dead? WRONG! It's alive and well. Why,the Ukrainians can just hold out without heat, electricity or fuel bravely and overcome Russia. So says the above.
There can be no end to this war without destroying Ukraine - thanks to sociopaths such as this.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 24 2022 19:25 utc | 31

Eh. I'll believe Ukraine is running out of munitions (and/or men) when there is some clear Russian offensive success on the battlefield. I've been listening to Alexander "Increasingly" Mercouris tell me about slow, steady, incremental, inexorable Russian progress against Bakhmut, Ugledar, Avdiivka, etc. for months yet somehow they're not captured yet. If Ukraine runs out of ammunition, one would think resistance would collapse. I'll believe it when I see it.

Posted by: Mike314159 | Nov 24 2022 19:25 utc | 32

Weeks since Russia left part of Kherson, how come Russia have not targeted the ukrainian forces as of yet? What are they waiting for or is it the incompetence again? Kherson is after all, I assume, under ukrainian occupation and the longer that goes on that harder it will be to do anything about it, obviously.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:31 utc | 33


Putin, so far as I can see, still has no more endgame for Ukraine than for Syria.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 24 2022 19:05 utc | 26

Maybe the plan is to bus western Ukrainians to Idlib.

Posted by: Mike314159 | Nov 24 2022 19:31 utc | 34

Is this whats called copium or hopium? Make no mistake they are supplying weapons as needed to counter Russian threats. They can fire heavy machine guns at drones forever whatever they hit will be worth it.

Second point Austin made a special point to say the nasams are 100 percent effective hence they are not as thats the lie they use to counter the truth rumors their air defense missles are flying and hitting random things. For russias sake I hope that means they have means to do so. So a point in russias favor.

Third point is that the grid strikes are being sold as war crimes hence they are very effective. Two points in russias favor


However there is a big battle brewing for melitopal and russia is preparing to abandon more territory and preparing defensive lines for the main highway to Crimea through melitopal. This foreshadows additional losses. Russia is in fact being hammered effectively on its supply lines two points for ukraine.

Everyone needs to understand Russia can lose everything they are hard pressed to man the entire front effectively even still
They need to utilize the whole border even if it seems beyond their mental horizon.

Russia and its fan boys here need to know they can lose. Ukraine is fully mobilized and is given free weapons and logistics and targeting info. The winter offensive will be Ukrainian and they have the tools to win now. Every week will "bottom of the barrel scraping" except its not. The us can supply things for years make no mistake. The industrial base is primed with orders for years and that means the business will expand. The wests weakness is vastly overplayed

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 24 2022 19:34 utc | 35

Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:31 utc | 35

You should read the news instead of whinging. Russia destroyed the artillery unit that set up in Kherson.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 19:35 utc | 36

I am not convinced we will see a big decisive Russian offensive this winter or ever - unless it is obvious that the AFU has disintegrated.

We've not seen any large scale maneuver warfare successfully carried out by the Russians. It may be they are not able to or that they are unwilling to accept the casualties or risk.

I'm thinking the Russians are opting for a longer war with a continuing focus on attrition and gradual advance until they decide the AFU is truly a spent force.

With that said, there could be a modest offenses whose main axis would be from Ugladar north toward Zaporizhia and Dinpro (sp ?). That would be a 100km advance. But when have we ever seen the Russian Army carry out such an attack in this war in anything other than slow, incremental attacks. Capturing those 2 cities would split the Ukrainian effort in half and provide a staging area for attacks south to capture Odessa. I just dont see any evidence of the Russians having the ability or appetite for such a move.

As long as Ukraine is willing to attack, the Russians are perhaps content to accept those attacks while continuing to destroy Ukraines infrastructure.

Who knows and I would be happy to be completely wrong.

A long war (2 years) may see less risky and costly to the Russians, but the enemy always has a vote as long as you give them the time.

Posted by: Dan Farrand | Nov 24 2022 19:37 utc | 37

Maybe the plan is to bus western Ukrainians to Idlib.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Nov 24 2022 19:31 utc | 36

That would be very Putin-like, make Lviv the Ukrainian Idlib. Have to kick the Notzees out of Kiev first though.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 24 2022 19:41 utc | 38

@bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17
Off topic or under topic, an inspired post, and true.

I want to emphasise b's role, because without a good basis for debate, there is no good debate.
His mind and eye work differently than most so his topics and the angle from which he explores them are atypical and unexpected. I never know what he is going to come up with Suspense, and always exciting. He's really good. And cool.

Cheers to him, and to all the genuine contributors here.

Posted by: JB | Nov 24 2022 19:43 utc | 39

Yep.

10 soldiers ably LEAD will defeat a HUNDRED without a Head

TL&DR - AFU ceased to exist months ago ... pointlessly abhorrent ongoing slaughter.

Everything AFU requires to wage war, increasingly so since the conflict has progressed, must be imported from outside Ukraine. Yet, like no spare wheel rims nor spare types unique to the vehicle, increasingly derelict junk from the 50's & 60's, will wager the Ma Deuces don't come with cleaning kits or spare parts, no experienced armorer/artificer to repair & maintain them, nor even any training other than the most rudimentary ... point & shoot.

9 arty tube calibers, not counting mortars or MBRLS, & incompatible munitions(shells) even in the same caliber.(See: 155mm, multiple NATO State 155 mm platforms).

Arms systems are only merely one element of materiel re warfighting. High caloric nutritionally balanced rations & huge, simply huge amounts of potable water, along with massive quantities of basic medical supplies, and a 'shit-ton' of other overlooked non-sexy supplies of every variety, from a myriad of critical different batteries to simply notebooks & paper. AFU is 'importation dependent' re everything, with no logistical vehicular fleet infrastucture throughout theater.

Without the huge tonnages of the not so hot war porn materiel, AFU is a non-combat effective mix-mash of untrained, non-lead, unskilled masses of involuntary Volksturm, made up of, given the repeated forced selective mobilizations of ethnic/culturally/politically/ideological subgroups driven to their death by the barrel of a gun.

AFU lowball conservative losses mean the ENTIRE AFU Army ceased to be combat effective minimum ~5 months ago.

Everything since is simply a uniformed march to death by conscripted Volksturm who in combat are a greater danger to themselves & their comrades than the enemy.

AFU NCOs & Junior officers (tactical commanders) given losses been KIA/WIA minimum 4 times over, in a minimum of ~71% of AFU units. Each replacement even less well trained/experienced than the last to the point of utterly non-effective. Similar situation re HQ Staff/Command, OPs & support Officers & crucially their specialist supporting NCO's staff. They have been relentlessly targeted & KIA/WIA throughout the Theater since Feb24 by all indirect fire/engagement means possible.

Result, same as junior NCOs/Officers. HQ & Staff, have the specialist knowledge/experience to plan Ops, co-ordinate tactical/operational battles/maneuvers, timely battlefield medical care & evac, but, most importantly of all, they massage the myriad logistics! Petrol, Oil, Lubricants, & everything else. Minimum ~71% of those HQ & Staff officers & NCOs are KIA/WIA, repeatedly replaced with non-effective, incapable, incompetent, 'dead-wood'.

War porn Arms alone DO NOT win battles & most certainly not wars.

Fully trained, capable, competent, motivated formations & that are unified in purpose with Esprit de Corps, function on the battlefield as a single self-supporting 'hive-mind', with high morale & steely determination, capably led & commanded by experienced, competent, trusted/respected junior NCOs/Officers, & HQ/Command Staff NCO's/Officers do ... even with only short spears(Asagi)(See: Zulu's vs Brit Empires Army, Battle of Isandalwahla, annihilation of British army, retreat from Kabul, 1842(?))

The AFU ceased to be a combat-effective & combat-capable force on the battlefield a minimum of ~5 months ago. No amount of trivial, inappropriate re nature of conflict & largely obsolescent 'armaments' nor insufficient ammunition, starting with small arms ammunition will make any difference. Direct/indirect fire tubes, from rifles to mortars, to Arty to MBRLS are scrap metal without ammo to fire.

Those machine guns Ukraine will get, minus those to be sold on the black market, can not be effective as
air defense. They will likely end up to be used in a ground mode to defend this or that frontline ditch.

LMGs & HMGs in the AD role, even purpose designed light auto-cannon for Air Defence ?

Will let you in on a secret. They existed in WWII for morale purposes re the terror of air attack.

Insane amounts of ammunition, for trivially negligible actual effect. Now recall through WWII into the 60's the US M16(Halftrack quad 50 cal) and dual & quad tracked 40mm cannon AD (name?) ... what were they ultimately used for ? Ground support direct fires & suppressive fires. Very effective & deadly. Problem massive ammunition consumption. OOPs logistics. Re engaging and hitting 'Large' fast movers even from late WWII ... not so good. Move into the 50's/'60's against Large 2nd gen & above fast mover Jets, essentially useless.

.50 cals in AD role against SMALL low flying NOE cruise missiles & even Smaller low profile drones ? Nope. Not unless they track very close & slant or parallel to your position, not gonna happen often at all, is 'pin-point' defense, even them the hit rate will be trivial, and thier ain't no pilot to get nervous re the incoming, though ineffective fires. CPUs & embedded MCUs do not feel fear.

AFU ceased to exist ... see above.

RF has Strategic & Operational Initiative & Dominance throughout Theater. Demonstrably. RF has tactical dominance & initiative & multiple combat power multipliers, even when outnumbered, as well as tactical fires of all kinds, dominance.

The Ukrainian population via AFU meat grinder has been, is being, & will continue to be, slaughtered to no Militarily significant or consequential effect, pointlessly. Further combat, other surrender, is immoral.

2c is up.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 19:45 utc | 40

psychohistorian@28 "The thing is steven, there are more nations than Russia in this civilization war and your attempt to isolate it from a bigger picture view is typical of propaganda efforts to the contrary. The issue is more, how long can empire prop up it perfidy with more perfidy? Going MAD is the chicken shit way out of this."

There is no "civilization war." That's not a real thing, it's a quasi-religious ideological construct. This is hybrid WWIII, the phase of the war against Russia. But what's driving this is the terminal phase of imperialism, the decay of capitalism. It would make as much sense to see WWI as a "civilization war" between democracy and autocracy. Most people who talk about imperialism around here seem to me some kind of bullying, Also, given the hysteria in many quarters about the filthy morals, or lack of them, in the Godless West, this really seems more like a dogwhistle to the fascists.

Efforts to isolate the war against Russia are not, I repeat, not, emphatically, not, typical of propaganda for the hybrid war against Russia. The main tactic for that is exactly what I said, Russia is the aggressor and therefore it is self-defense. Ritual demonization is a patriotic reflex. Also, it is not clear why a comment on the OP requires a review of the entire world struggle. Nor is it at all clear which other countries are relevant to the war in Ukraine.

But if you insist on talking about MAD, at least talk about other countries. The countries most likely to go MAD are Israel, India and the US...and the latter is entirely capable of nuclear genociding pretty much everyone in North Korea. Despite the popularity of the "multipolarity" notion as a substitute for acknowledging the reality of imperialist war and the desperate need for ultimately world revolution, MAD is the secret of multipolarity.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 24 2022 19:45 utc | 41

The whole nutty view that west will run out of weapons before Russia is comical denialism:

Russian authorities reveal how many countries are providing weapons to Ukraine
https://tass.com/politics/1541551

So atleast 25 nations are arming Ukraine, 21 are NATO members. You believe 25 nations are going to be depleted before vs 1 (Russia)? LOL

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:45 utc | 42

A couple of things that I've read lately that I find grating, and I'm a little surprised they haven't been mentioned by others.

First, "Russia has had 9 months and they haven't rolled Ukraine yet", I'm not aware of many "military engagements" in human history that last less than a year. I find it likely that there have been a few engagements that were over relatively quickly, but it is not the norm.

How long was the US involved in it's many conflicts in the last half of the last century?

Secondly, those listing the horrors of living without electricity. Don't disagree with what has been said, other than people pointing out that there will be no refrigeration. Pretty sure not being able to keep food cold is not going to be an issue in the winter, what with the temperature being well below freezing for months on end.

Posted by: David F | Nov 24 2022 19:47 utc | 43

Supposedly the Serbs countered the HAARM radar seeking missiles by running household microwave ovens with the doors taken off. The radar seeking missiles would home in on the microwave ovens and BLAM ! A $100,000 missile destroyed a $25 decoy.


Posted by: Exile | Nov 24 2022 19:48 utc | 44

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 19:35 utc | 38

Yes they did between Russian artillery and then for good measure fighter bombers nothing was left. Russia well do this every time z-boy sends more troops.

Posted by: jo6pac | Nov 24 2022 19:50 utc | 45

Dan Farrand | Nov 24 2022 19:37 utc | 39

Something to consider is that Ukraine's main source of heavy weapons (US) has dried up. Back when Ukraine began the Khakiv and Kherson offensives the fielded a fresh force of about 80,000 made up of mercs, Ukrainians trained elsewhere and untrained conscripts. The have now been mostly killed off. Ukraine may be able to field fresh cannon fodder as conscripts complete their limited training in other countries but as Ukraine runs out of artillery ammo, whatever mercs that are left will be heading for greener pastures.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 19:50 utc | 46

One thing that has been suspicious is chemical tanker ships which some weeks ago docked at Yuzhne (NE of Odessa). They could be still going, haven't checked. Don't know what the deal is there, but it would be a miracle if they aren't transporting fuel moved by the UAF. They surely have contributed increasing UAF mobility in SE Ukraine area.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 19:52 utc | 47

David F

How long was the US involved in it's many conflicts in the last half of the last century?

It took just some weeks for US to take not only Iraq but Bagdad itself. It has taken Russia 9 months and have not a single region under control yet but suffering retreats.
Or lets compare the death toll for Russian soldiers during 9 months with the death toll of US death toll for both Iraq and Afghanistan.
This war is of course nothing but a mess for Russia.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:58 utc | 48

So atleast 25 nations are arming Ukraine, 21 are NATO members.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 24 2022 19:45 utc | 44

---

Western industrial leaders ==> https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiU5heYVUAAfYWU?format=jpg

Posted by: too scents | Nov 24 2022 19:58 utc | 49

In Canada, it is Chrystia Freeland the real PM..Trudeau us a pathetic poodle.
Chrystia is certainly a CIA agent
Posted by: virgile | Nov 24 2022 18:47 utc

Close but no cigar.

Freeland's bosses are several layer higher than any CIA/US agency. She is on the Board of Directors of the WEF, and Klaus corresponds with her on a first-name basis. She and Trudy literally have raptly sat at the knee of a Master. (There are better photos of this but this one serves the purpose.)
https://niagaraindependent.ca/george-soros-and-his-canadian-chess-game-part-3/

She is to Trudy as Cheney was to Shrub... the power behind the throne the dolt sits on.

Remember she is the granddaughter of Chomiak, who edited a Nazi propaganda rag and was "paperclipped" to Alberta to join the rest of the Nazi diaspora in Canada.
https://www.theprogressreport.ca/blank_spot_why_chrystia_freeland_s_refusal_to_acknowledge_her_grandfather_s_nazi_past_matters_in_2020

Freeland has been on the Soros/Schwab/Rothschild radar, if not payroll, since she was a university student, supposed to have been "studying the Ukrainian language" in Kiev... while she was actually enabling the increase in neo-Nazis there. She is banned from Russia for this alone.

After that she magically became a "journalist", and was slated to write Soros' biography. But then she was placed in the Liberal party and slimed up the pile to be Deputy PM AND Finance Minister. Next target, Freeland as head of NATO.

So our little Chrystia has a long pedigree/history that might lead one to question her sincerity and loyalty to Canada. I'd say she had a better chance of being hit by lightning multiple times than rising as she has on her own merits.

Trudy and Singh are both WEF Young Leaders, Trudy in 1992... that is not a typo. The obvious implication is that the Rothchilds placed a WEF mole in a preeminent Canadian political family, probably with the full knowledge of Justin's probable genetic heritage. No need for a visit to Epstein's Island to keep Justin in line.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 24 2022 19:59 utc | 50

@Dan Farrand

I have given up on predicting anything since I obviously do not get it.

If I tried regardless, i would suggest that it would be pretty stupid to mobilize 300.000 men without using them. If its just about defending, the kremlin could have sent the soldiers in active duty without disrupting 300.000 lifes. Those men cant be kept in service forever. So whats the plan?

Maybe they will just wait and see if the ukraine dissolves without any military push just by keeping the country black and cold and possibly hungry.

If this collapse doesnt happen they may start an offensive in january near the end of the intended mobilization period.

Maybe. I dunno but what for do you retrain so many men?

But maybe just nothing really ever happens. The russians send their wagners to local offensives and nothing else happens.

Posted by: Orgel | Nov 24 2022 20:05 utc | 51

@ steven c johnson [26]
Your comments are generally very accurate, but the following is not correct: "Hahn is incorrect as to the dreadfulness of inflation. Inflation is not good, but the special horror of inflation for the owners is that it decreases the value of their money. Being the people with the most money, they easily confuse this with the apocalypse. As for recession, the central banks are deliberately inducing recession to lower wages/increase profits. The ruling class will not be deterred by the policy they favor. Hahn is out of his depth here, completely."

The "owners of money" tend to be the middle classes with savings accounts and the working class with pensions. The real upper class have much of their wealth in stocks and they actively manage their stock accounts to avoid the obvious train wrecks ahead. To the extent they own bonds, they will be surprised to learn they were merely part of the middle class, as inflation will shrink the value of their bonds.

The goal of the banks in raising interest rates is to survive the crunch, not to deliberately wreck the working class, although I'm sure the banks don't mind that side effect.
Really, you and everyone else should check out what Tom Luongo and friends have to say about the crisis in banking because it's not what you think. Rountable #33, Gonzalo Lira, Tom Luongo and Alex Krainer

Lots of valuable info there, but I think the explanation of banking comes around the one hour mark.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 24 2022 20:06 utc | 52

Interesting points. Some quibbles:

Agreed, targeting information is crucial. In my non-professional opinion, that's the main edge that Ukraine has, and the main reason that Russia is having so much trouble. Sure, Russia has drones and satellites - but the western powers have invested colossal sums in this, and I suspect have Ukraine under a microscope. High-resolution satellite imagery, in visual, infrared, and hyper spectral bands. Electronic surveillance picking up nearly every transmission. Ground-mapping high-resolution radar, that in difference mode can pick up new tire tracks in the first. And more, all integrated into total señor-fusion and assisted with AI. And the command and control for Ukraine cannot be struck by Russia, because it's not in Ukraine. The Russians can't hardly do anything but it will likely get posted, and the western powers just phone the precise coordinates to the Ukrainians, who only have to dial in the numbers and push a button.

I'm not saying that Ukraine will win, or that Russia won't have a successful winter offensive. I'm saying that Ukraine has some big advantages, and precise targeting is I think the biggest.

Posted by: TG | Nov 24 2022 20:07 utc | 53

It is clear that Zelnsky and his supporters think this is another of those hollywood war films where nobody runs out of ammunition.

All he needs to do is change the image on the green screen behind him.
****

Thanks bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17. Thanks for putting pen to .....err paper.
*

"the truth, dripping with mud and shit, blood and booze, spite and envy, madness and idiocy, emerges,"

Much more realistic than Churchills; "we will fight them across the playing fields, on the beaches and under the bedclothes, and we will never spill our bodily fluids" - (or something like that?).

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 24 2022 20:07 utc | 54

In terms of NATO interceding. I wonder if Boris Johnson knows something thumping his chest basically calling France and Germany coward chickenshits. Trying to shame them into invading Ukraine as a NATO force The military axiom is that an attacking force needs about a 3:1 advantage which means NATO would need one million strong to invade Ukraine and take on directly a Russia force of about 500K+. Which the Russians can probably increase to one million fairly quickly.

The best West can do is for Poland to invade Western Ukraine and stay a long distance away from the Russians which posters have speculated almost since the conflict began. Have no clue how Russians would react.

Posted by: Erelis | Nov 24 2022 20:09 utc | 55

If Ukraine can't evict Russia, and Russia can't defeat Ukraine, then what would peace look like?

Suppose, Russia consolidates control over the Donbas over the winter and suffers no additional major setbacks like they did in the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensive. They've got Crimea, Zaporozhzhia, southern Kherson, Luhahsnk and Donetsk. They cannot realistically take any more territory without mobilizing more men. Conversely, Ukraine is exhausted and unable to project power, but still dug in west of Donbas, and now firmly in control of Kharkiv.

What then? How do you wrap the war up?

When I try to imagine in, I figure it ends up like North/South Korea. You never wrap the war up, you just have flimsy truces and perceptual flare ups. It ends up being more of the 2014 - 2022 war. I suppose that, eventually, one side regenerates to the point where they're ready to take war on again and the cycle repeats.

I can't see a grand way out of this. It seems like it's likely to be a fixed feature of the geopolitical situation for years.

Posted by: GoFast | Nov 24 2022 20:25 utc | 56

@Zanon (35) Ukraine has only a token force in Kherson, which has no electricity. Why would Russia worry about reclaiming it? Kherson is just as much a liability for Ukraine as it was for Russia. It won’t come as a surprise if Ukraine abandons it.

Posted by: Rob | Nov 24 2022 20:26 utc | 57

@ Gregory Puecell | Nov 24 2022 18:05 utc | 3

30 years ago the US Marine corp told us if we were under air attack lie flat on our backs and shoot one round from a rifle strait up into the air every 5-10 seconds and this is more effective than trying to aim at the flying plane.

Bingo! (was his name-o)

@ pretzelattack | Nov 24 2022 18:08 utc | 4

these people live in fantasy land.

The only possible explanation is the financial ponzi/rort/theft re the 'Lend-Lease' junk. And, as an example of desirable outcomes, untermenschen slavs depopulating each other, as per, supported & armed on both sides, them Rag-Head Sand N*ggers in the Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988.(See: Iran-Contra, Colonel Ollie North, et al, run out of WH)

From Empires perspective, & the Vampyres factions driving all this, it is win-win regardless.

@ Merkin Scot | Nov 24 2022 18:11 utc | 8

@ bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

Well said.

Looks like Zelensky will now have to go direct to the NRA to get the large amount of ammo the wingnuts store.

There is in fact a critical shortage in the Empire of small arms ammo, Mil & Civilian, especially various primers & certain classes of powder, re reloading as well as manufacture, too.

@ TG | Nov 24 2022 20:07 utc | 56

And these, advantages. They will somehow overcome insufficient ammunition, food, water, medical supplies competent/capable soldiers/NCOs & Officers & all the rest ?

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 20:31 utc | 58

Posted by: bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

Thanks very much, bevin. That's I think the best description of this place we have had in the times I have come here, and it fits with how a future day should be for us all. As a naturalized citizen of the US I have until lately loved Thanksgiving Day for the across the country celebration of family, non-commercial enjoyment. Let there come to be an international community feast day after all the conflicts in the world are no more!

Posted by: juliania | Nov 24 2022 20:44 utc | 59

Justin's probable genetic heritage. No need for a visit to Epstein's Island to keep Justin in line.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 24 2022 19:59 utc | 53

Still propagating that stupid myth. Justin was 5 and Michel was just a baby when the family first visited Cuba. Access to JT's "confidential" settlement and NDA's for his time as a drama teacher is sufficient to keep him as a useful idiot.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 20:48 utc | 60

If Ukraine is winning, or about to win, or will eventually win I ask the question why does it need ever more material. It is not taking significant territory or dealing disastrous defeats on the Russian forces. And if it was winning it would be resupply if through captured equipment and munitions as Russians ran away. The massive need the AFU has tells us everything we really need to know.

Yes, trolls, Kharkov was a very good counteroffensive. It leveraged terrain, the strength of the attacking side (NATO light infantry tactics), weakness of the enemy and surprise. It was very well done. That’s it though. In Kherson it was just a daily blood bath and then the Russians left in such good order that they took the statues and evacuated the zoo.

At this point it’s nothing more than a blood sacrifice to Joe Biden’s pride.

Posted by: Lex | Nov 24 2022 20:50 utc | 61

Well, I am glad that you finally did come to the right conclusion, for many, many others it was foregone! The US can't win wars, but they are good at terrorizing people, they have done it in two centuries! We are many in this world, many more than USasians that glee with US's victories, like in Vietnam and Iraq. Someone finally punched back. Now get used to it, it's payback time! First we send all our homeless, jobless and just scum to you, now you can look after them! You are used to crime, I believe...
But Biden has a plan. Unfortunately, he can't read it, less say it out loud.. I wonder what imbecile you will choose as CIC next time? There are so many to choose from, sooorry I can't predict it.
But he will be a geriatric, in his 90' ties and dumber than a nail.
I might just get that dacha in middle Rus before long, I will miss the sea though :(, but I will survive Rita will keep me warm, and I will keep her warm. She laughs when I call Volgograd for Stalingrad, but it is a kind laughter :) I would love to live near the Black Sea though, it is beautiful and what a climate, I can grow tomatoes nearly all year.

Posted by: Den Lille Abe | Nov 24 2022 20:56 utc | 62

@ whirlX | Nov 24 2022 18:53 utc | 20

Well stated. Absolutely concur.

Yet the War in Ukraine is ultimately a distraction, not the primary nor even most significant ongoing battle sphere.

'Tis the one for the big Blue Marble, Terra, & the crushing defeat of the Empires International-Rules-Based-Order, occurring elsewhere. Ie Exceptional reserved privilege, re rapine, terror, enslavement, death, exploitation, selective slaughter & physical &/or cultural genocide, for ... PROFIT & Dominance by the Vampyres.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 20:57 utc | 63

Spriterinfo1 new account in twitter but a regular contributor for many years re Syria posted photo
"new formation of the 77th airmobile brigade is being formed in Zhitomir, on the basis of the airborne troops training center. Soldier training is also conducted in the UK."

looks to be about 4-500. Plus tank and other supporting vehicles.Watch for missiles??????

Posted by: Jo | Nov 24 2022 20:59 utc | 64

A man after my own heart! Enjoy yourselves!

Posted by: donten | Nov 24 2022 21:00 utc | 65

... NATO would need one million strong to invade Ukraine and take on directly a Russia force of about 500K+. Which the Russians can probably increase to one million fairly quickly.

The best West can do is for Poland to invade Western Ukraine and stay a long distance away from the Russians which posters have speculated almost since the conflict began. Have no clue how Russians would react.

Posted by: Erelis | Nov 24 2022 20:09 utc | 58

Après EUX, le déluge, eh?

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 24 2022 21:08 utc | 66

Russia could care less about taking over Ukraine, when Nato overthrew Ukraine they were like "whatever". The Russians grabbed the base in Crimea and fought out a deal where they could trade and work with the Donbass. Thats all they wanted.

They have zero intrest in putting millions of troops out in those fields, if Nato launched a massive attack their army would be impossible to replace. They also need to match the Number of Nato troops in eastern Europe near the boarder/arctic and they also need enough troops to keep their own in line at home.

Those defense lines look like they are prepared for a battle against Poland/Latvia in Belarus. Even if it isn't going to happen they must be prepared for it. Russia is in a difficult situation to say the least.

What they are doing with a small force in Ukraine is a bit of an eye opener, I doubt Nato thought they would be donating thousands of pieces of heavy equipment in the first few months of the war.


Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 24 2022 21:09 utc | 67

@ bevin 17...

thanks.. its true.. great to hear all the diverse viewpoints and it is testimony to our host b too..

Posted by: james | Nov 24 2022 21:12 utc | 68

My son and I have decided to go to the Ukrainian-Romanian border steal a technical and a heavy machine gun with some of those 120M rounds and start gathering forces to our cause of re-establishing The Golden Horde. We'll let you know how it goes...

Posted by: John Q. Publicke | Nov 24 2022 21:15 utc | 69

Mark Sleboda has an article up on his Substack talking about the same issue:

Demilitarizing NATO
https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/demilitarizing-nato

Amusingly, he uses the top section of b's earlier post on "Russia, Having 'Run Out Of Missiles', Launches Barrage On Ukraine" to illustrate his article - without crediting MoA...

I posted this comment in reply calling him on it:


richardstevenhack
Writes The Five Essentials
6 min ago

That reprint of an article listing all the stories about Russia "running out of everything"?

You might want to credit Moon of Alabama for that.... Here's the full article:

Russia, Having 'Run Out Of Missiles', Launches Barrage On Ukraine

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/russia-having-run-out-of-missiles-launches-barrage-on-ukraine.html

Bernhard at MoA is one of the best sources for analysis of the Ukraine war and much more.,

I also posted the link to this current article in a followup comment. Others might want to drop by his post and comment.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 24 2022 21:17 utc | 70

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving Day to b and those of the commentators who aren't morons... :-)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 24 2022 21:18 utc | 71

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 19:45 utc | 42

Fully trained, capable, competent, motivated formations & that are unified in purpose with Esprit de Corps, function on the battlefield as a single self-supporting 'hive-mind', with high morale & steely determination, capably led & commanded by experienced, competent, trusted/respected junior NCOs/Officers, & HQ/Command Staff NCO's/Officers do ... even with only short spears(Asagi)(See: Zulu's vs Brit Empires Army, Battle of Isandalwahla, annihilation of British army, retreat from Kabul, 1842(?))

---

Thanks for this post Outraged.

Still, there are always those who are fully trained, capable, competent, motivated and unified in purpose with Esprit de Corps, but catch a bullet from their own ranks when the opportunity arises. Which is said to have been not uncommon during WWII among Wehrmacht personnel with unbridled ambitions for an EK1 or Ritterkreuz.

Speaking of survival instinct, I honestly wonder if Ukrops are emulating the master race in this regard as well. :)

Posted by: Nobody | Nov 24 2022 21:22 utc | 72

Britain Sending Helicopters to Ukraine ‘for First Time’ in War

The Royal Navy provided six weeks’ training on Sea Kings in Britain for Ukraine’s armed forces and engineers, the Ministry of Defence said.

6 weeks training to fly and repair? Just enough time to die due to pilot error or malfunction.

Britain sending helicopters to Ukraine for first time - Ben Wallace
The Sea King was previously used by both the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy, with the last craft being retired by the Navy in 2018.

Notice how they were in mothball since 2018. More old used equipment that some contractor will make a ton of money supporting and recirculating money back into the hands of our western leaders. A line item on the budget for maintenance and repair.

Canada has some they can send...
A final $2.1M spent on maintenance for Canada's aging Sea Kings

It is flipping amazing. Flying that old bird with little training and little maintenance experience. Pure line item rake off.

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 24 2022 21:23 utc | 73

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 20:48 utc | 63
It could have been Lou Rawls, Jack Nicholson, Ryan O'Neill, any of the Rolling Stones or a trucker. My money is on Bill Wyman. Trudeau is clearly from the loins of of a man who's other son Stephen Wyman married Patsy Smith, the 46-year-old mother of Bill's ex-wife Mandy Smith who Wyman bedded at 14 years old. Therefore, Bill became the father-in-law of his ex-mother-in-law as well as the stepgrandfather of his former wife. It was Bill.

Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 24 2022 21:27 utc | 74

that turkey didnt kill himself
he suicided himself to serve us

so lets have a good thanksgiving


----

I guess one really good meme ;D

Posted by: Macpott | Nov 24 2022 21:32 utc | 75

Europe's cities to donate generators for Ukraine as winter looms (Reuters)

Diesel and gasoline generators? I thought Europe would send solar panels to Ukraine, so Ukraine can fight both Russia and global warming at the same time.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 24 2022 21:46 utc | 76

It’s a great read and wholly believable. The retreat will be spectacular - not armies but civilians pouring into Europe.

But …Strategically Russia might have won, but against the US based Imperial superpower? I’m not sure.
There is no way all the wargaming theorists and computers will not have worked out most outcomes.

Maybe the idea of Russia winning was already known - in which case what would have been the grander strategic planning? Over decades probably.

Plug in the rising SCO and BRI and China and the recipe was concocted. This has been planned long ago with building of a zeitgeist of racism against all things Russia AND the Soviet legacy.

Everyone knows now - it’s the deindustrialisation of Europe and break up of the EU and Euro. A fucked up Europe looking to the West and being wholly owned by the rump Empire looks like the winning strategy that is being followed. When the neocons SAY it is about weakening Russia, they actually mean Europeans being forced to sacrifice. What do the Europeans get out of it? Millions of ‘Aryan’ migrants, who will provide the cheap labour and younger population for a few generations. The farm hands, labourers, Amazon fodder, and servants, the more uneducated the better etc.

Use of Western Propaganda, racism and energy poverty are the weapons - not against Russia but us, Europeans!

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 24 2022 21:52 utc | 77

@ Nobody | Nov 24 2022 21:22 utc | 75

Rather rare, yet more so towards mid-late '44 onwards re organizational collapse & army group disintegrations. Hence massive uptick in MP & combat zone rear area inspections & checkpoints re malingerers & deserters, real or imagined being summarily executed & publicly displayed. Same in rear areas outside the combat zone re Nazi civilian authorities & non Waffen SS officials/administrators. In it's most extreme effect during the predominantly Foreign Nazi Legions desperate futile defense of Berlin. even young boys & girls ... (See: Zee German MPs & Security Police(Feldgendarmerie (Kettenhunde/Heldenklauer)), hanging Fascist Judges & Nazi Kangaroo Courts, especially Nazi Party CO's re the Kuban & Riga cauldrons)

Hence, 'Fragging' in Vietnam. Increasingly so in lead-up to pre & post policy announcement of, Vietnamization. Who wants to die for a lost cause ...

First grenade pin under the pillow of a too personally ambitious Officer/SNCO ... if ignored, followed by a grenade rolled into the hooch in the early hours ... sans pin ... or a booby-trapped shitter (John, head, field latrine)

Hence, Standing Orders for regular troops not to be permitted use or carriage of enemy small arms ... to avoid said Officers/SNCO's taking a bullet in the back from a Soviet/Chinese round in midst of firefight ... oops enemy sniper, so sad.

And so, the Ukie OUN-Nazi's uphold zee Nazi's of WWII's fine traditions, starting with Blocking Detachments 'behind' the FEBA ...

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 21:53 utc | 78

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving Day to b and those of the commentators who aren't morons... :-)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 24 2022 21:18 utc | 74

This is an international audience and Americans are among the very few who celebrate Thanksgiving today.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 21:56 utc | 79

#3 purcevel

My father fought in Spain in 1936 and he described to me what he had been taught as an infantry officer in that war -- namely to lie down on the ground and and instruct his troops to fire their rifles in the air when opposing aircraft flew over head.

Posted by: Toivos | Nov 24 2022 21:57 utc | 80

Thanks, Bevin, for your observations @ 17: you have put in words what many of us, me included, have thought about Moon of Alabama and its comments forums for years. MoA is one of the few venues allowing us space to discuss and dissect reports or "analyses" of significant world events, to discover the actual agendas behind such reporting and analysis, to come closer to the reality that has been buried, and from there to form our own views and paradigms, and thus escape (even if only temporarily) the brainwashing and manipulation by The Powers That (Should Not) Be and their technocrat handmaidens.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 24 2022 21:59 utc | 81

Will comment her any more, Comments disappear without any explanation.

Kindly! you are the master of your house.
So thank you, I shall not disturb your sleep!

Posted by: Den Lille Abe | Nov 24 2022 22:00 utc | 82

Stonebird said the other day that he got the impression that the oblasts taking the majority of losses have been those inhabited by mainly Russian speakers.
And he suspected it is about a conscious depopulation.
Thus like he said this explains what is going on.

The US needs to keep the spirit up in that butchers shop to keep up the depopulation of those who might change sides after being deprogrammed later.
Bernard's account of the amount of weapons coming from the US is adequate for the purpose mentioned.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Nov 24 2022 22:12 utc | 83

Circumspect @76
Ben Wallace UK sending 3 'rescue' helicopters to Uqraine.
The 6 week training will involve Evacuation of Zelensky at a moment's notice along with to helicopters stuffed with cash gold and the like. Miame here we come.
Personally my prediction for Zelensky....A box of 'Novachoc' from Portland down uk, just like the Skripals. And falsely blame Russia.

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 24 2022 22:14 utc | 84

@ circumspect | Nov 24 2022 21:23 utc | 76

Notice how they were in mothball since 2018. ... It is flipping amazing. Flying that old bird with little training and little maintenance experience. Pure line item rake off.


Perhaps there may be a pattern forming here, hm ? :)

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 22:16 utc | 85

It could have been Lou Rawls, Jack Nicholson, Ryan O'Neill, any of the Rolling Stones or a trucker. My money is on Bill Wyman.

Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 24 2022 21:27 utc | 77

More silly talk. Pierre Trudeau and Margaret Sinclair married on March 4, 1971, then Justin was born on December 25, 1971. Those dates (9 months, 21 days) add up favorably for Pierre. She was young and naive and would not have been "selected" if she slept around.

Margaret first met the Rolling Stones in Toronto 1977 during her rebellious period.

Honestly, the Internet gossip mill should drop that one forever. It was a funny joke years ago, now it is just lame.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 22:16 utc | 86

Germany refuses to send Patriot systems to Ukraine, or excess Patriot systems to Poland so Poland could send them to Ukraine. Not that Patriot is very effective, anyway.

Germany responds to call for aid to Ukraine: Patriot air defense systems only for NATO member states - Reuters

This is the response given by Germany's defense chief to Poland's call for air defense systems to be deployed to Ukraine.
Any possible use of US SAMs not on the territory of allied countries would require discussion among the alliance countries.

https://t.me/brianlovethailand/1096

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 24 2022 22:23 utc | 87

It should be abundantly clear by now that serial loser NATO is shit scared of directly facing down serial victor Russia in open warfare.

Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 24 2022 22:24 utc | 88

bevin | Nov 24 2022 18:45 utc | 17

Agree. This (almost) unmoderated forum - given its large crowd of contributers - is more likely to bring out truth than every other entity I know off. It is tolerant, and as close to free speech as possible. It provides links to other interesting stuff. I love it, and so does Peter Lavelle of RT international.

Posted by: grunzt | Nov 24 2022 22:25 utc | 89

@17 Bevin
Your prose was a real pleasure to read. Thank you!

Posted by: Stéphane | Nov 24 2022 22:29 utc | 90

to: Opport Knocks

This Christmas day birth, can be stuff of fantasy as I can across a family birth certificate that was labeled "No Name" and had the 'not of the house' in the comments, later on modified with white-out and hand printed over. Everything in the courthouse now is digital and the original not to be found.. and that is not the first incident that I have come across.

Posted by: T S | Nov 24 2022 22:32 utc | 91

Paul McGrory @ 77:

No mention of Charles Manson as a possible forebear?

Posted by: Jen | Nov 24 2022 22:33 utc | 92

@ unimperator | Nov 24 2022 22:23 utc | 90

NATO, so united. Empire, so much 'winning'.

Patriot is highly efficient & effective, a 0% hit rate under combat conditions, for 3 decades now. But they were designed & flogged for collecting the Benjamins ... not functionality, so, doesn't matter.

@ Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 24 2022 22:24 utc | 91

It should be abundantly clear by now that serial loser NATO is shit scared of directly facing down serial victor Russia in open warfare.

Indeed, for those that are not wilfully blind, or still trapped within the Empires 'Matrix' of Propaganda & Narrative.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 24 2022 22:35 utc | 93

Mark2 | Nov 24 2022 22:14 utc | 87

British media propaganda has started promoting magical novichok so I guess that will be Zed's ending. Going out in a blaze of propaganda glory.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 22:40 utc | 94

Early on the US SecDef let the cat out of the bag by stating that the US objective was to bleed Russia. Mission accomplished as far as I can tell.

1. Russia is now an international pariah. China pays lip service to supporting Russia.
2. Having broke Ukraine, Russia now owns the disaster formally called Ukraine.
3. Russia’s fatal demographic problems have been exacerbated as the cream of Russia has left along with any Ukrainians that might have been absorbed into Russia. You can say that they were all Nazis, but the Nazi parties in Ukraine only garnered 1-2% of the vote.
4. Except for their nuclear forces, Russias military has been exposed for the paper tiger it is.

Now, I support Putin defeating the US globalist captured administration proxie, Ukraine.

But what did Russia gain?

Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 24 2022 22:41 utc | 95

Muthaucker | Nov 24 2022 22:41 utc | 98
Someone a thread or three back asked about U$ treasuries.
Here’s a graph of who’s selling. Or. Just say “everyone”.
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1595779280679489538

Russia is not the only one bleeding.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 24 2022 22:50 utc | 96

The US has stakes in employing the Ukraine to grow foodstuff.
I wonder if the deindustrialisation of Ukraine was another wanted feature.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Nov 24 2022 22:53 utc | 97

Posted by: too scents | Nov 24 2022 18:29 utc | 15


Don't think so. Zhengzhou is the huge city which produces world's 50% IPhones, and cell phones of other brands.

Keep in mind, China is strictly neutral. No western country has blamed China for supporting Russia's military efforts so far, but the west blamed Iran and DPRK for supporting Russia in the conflict.

Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 24 2022 22:56 utc | 98

But what did Russia gain?
Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 24 2022 22:41 utc | 98

Russia is, unlike the US, not in it for profit. When a fight is inevitable, strike first.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 24 2022 22:56 utc | 99

@ Opport Knocks | Nov 24 2022 21:56 utc | 82

your response comes across as petty to me..

richard steven hack and all other americans on the board here - happy thanksgiving! we have much to be thankful for..

Posted by: james | Nov 24 2022 22:59 utc | 100

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