Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 30, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-213

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on November 30, 2022 at 15:23 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@ Zanon | Dec 1 2022 8:49 utc | 195

1. Maybe delivered in 2 years time. Would not take odds on it. Taiwan is still waiting on arms it already paid billions for going back to 2015. Recently told, sorry, The Borderlands take priority. Trust US Taiwan. We've got yer back!

2. Given absolute unrealistic AFU minimum KIA of ~9,000/mth, therefore AFU minimum WIA of ~27,000/mth ...

US human-sandbag trainees of 2,500/mth ... are good for 'two whole days' of raw replacements/mth. Hoo-Rah!

Such 'winning', not.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 9:45 utc | 201

Looking forward to years upon years of daily Zanon posts. "Yet another trashcan has been set on fire in Belgorod. As I've said for the millionth time, Russia is incapable of protecting itself. Any day now, a strategically important object of trash infrastructure will be destroyed and Russia will fall!"

Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 1 2022 9:51 utc | 202

Ukraine cannot be defeated without defeating its population, as it is clear that the most of them are extreme nationalists.
Not only the army.
To defeat the population Russia must learn from USA.
USA managed to defeat Serbia, not only the army but also the population.
Serbia has now pro USA government and is unable to threat or liberate Kosovo.

Posted by: margo | Dec 1 2022 9:52 utc | 203


Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 8:07 utc | 189


But why HOMOsexual Initiation rites? Is it for blackmail purposes? Is it to foster a “brotherhood “ of sorts? Is it simply to do a “thrilling “ thing which is so against their public image? Is it that disproportionately more gays are attracted to such secret societies , and thus it is normal for them to indulge in an initiation rite that happens to be homosexual? I don’t get it . Why?

If you will notice that it is not just homosexual acts that are involved. There is also heterosexual pedophilia, bestiality etc. Why all these nasty stuff happening at all?

I would say for control purposes...through blackmail. Nobody believes that the elected officials are really the people at the top of the pyramid. They are just the useful middle managers. To be allowed to rise to high elected office, one must be able to be controlled.

The Epstein affair gave us a glimpse into this world. Epstein was all part of the blackmail control apparatus.

Posted by: littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 10:03 utc | 204

Outraged

This war will of course go beyond 2 years so that is not an issue for Ukraine. Still Ukraine have of course other anti-aircraft arms already and the other day Patriot missiles are to be likely delivered in 2023.
Yes Ukraine seems to have a huge KIA, still Russia is not able to progress in this war. Also Russia have a huge loss of soldiers, probably in the 100k as far as injury releated casulaties goes.
Remember Soviet/Afghan war? That is how this war will end for Russia.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 10:03 utc | 205

Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 23:35 utc | 85
“When talking about Navy Seal it's impossible for me to not think of Kay Griggs - ex.wife of US marine colonel George Griggs.”
Also Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 1 2022 0:15 utc | 93
Kay griggs….Its worth finding…its out there..sorry no link atm…(will try)
Basically she said that the “special forces” were selected where possible from slightly disfunctional orphan cadets…and programmed through bonding exercises of a strong homosexual nature…
she more or less stated that all of the Navy seals etc
Had been sodomised etc…the excuse used was that …the enemy would do it if captured.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 0:57 utc | 102
His opinion regarding Kay Griggs…
“lunatic. Don't waste your time, certainly not 7 hours”
Nice censorship stroke Richard….
The trouble with information is that it doesn’t come neatly packaged to fit your time agenda…
And opinions.
Yes seven hours….etc and all the other “negatives”
However the important point is to know whats out there and form your own judgement.
Posted by: Anne B | Dec 1 2022 1:11 utc | 106
Correct Anne…excellent…sorry I wrote the above b4 your comment.
This site is interesting but has a negative review…however its still worth the time.
https://isgp-studies.com/index
Whilst this subject for some may be Off-topic …it makes you realize the obsessive training schedules
That are mandated and experimented by the armed forces.

Posted by: harryash | Dec 1 2022 10:06 utc | 206

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 8:23 utc | 190

Agreed, but it just piqued my curiosity. Lol

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 10:17 utc | 207

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 10:03 utc | 206

Zanon, please remember Patriots are worthless , and there are many pieces of information out there saying so. Even some ex -US soldiers have been on here saying so. Could they be lying ? Maybe? Could the pieces of information be pro-Russian supporter wishful thinking? Sure! Can they knock out a Russian plane? Yes, but it is like saying a knife can kill a man with a machine gun.Yes, if you are lucky , and you wouldn’t bet your life on it…

How do you know it will end like Russian /Afghan War? You mean like the US /Afghan War ; where the US “cut and run “ before even telling its Nato allies? The odds are against it. Why ? Afghanistan is mountainous and the Afghans were guerrillas. Ukraine has practically no mountains and the armies are conventional. No room for guerrilla war. I wrote about this here only a day or so ago.

Seems the veteran writers here were right .You are shaping up to be a Pro - Ukrainian .

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 10:30 utc | 208

Posted by: littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 10:03 utc | 205

Indeed, it is the bestiality , paedophilia , murder of children /kidnapped adults and Satanism I most expected and have read about . Preponderant homo sex was a new one for me , and If I am not mistaken the post I addressed only spoke about the latter.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 10:41 utc | 209

The Gift That Keeps On Giving| Dec 1 2022 9:34 utc | 201

We are blessed today troll thing. Thanks for your time.

I did run the calculations on your previous posts and as I expected without outside help it is impossible. Unfortunately outside help, as in way outside, is not going to happen.

Now your latest claim about Latvia. The people of Latvia have been stewing in the worst form of ethnic hatred not seen since the outbreak of genocidal hatred in Rwanda. They are not alone.

Look troll thing Poland sent 10000 over. 1000 body bags returned. Those Polish troops were literally decimated and it continues. Now given the hatred they have marinated in I have no doubt Latvian mothers would give their sons up to have their blood spilt on the black soil of Ukraine. Their sons will be itching to gouge the eyeballs out of their Russian brothers heads before kicking them to death. You people really have a problem which holds back your development. But Lativa is tiny...like really small and they are weak from living in the Empire.

You are right however it will not end until the final battle of the war begins. 2035 at the earliest.

But there is a chance Zanon...people like you need to let go of your inner chimpanzee and learn to talk to each other. Talk, listen and learn.

Last chance Z. Respond as a thinking human or remain a troll thing maniacally banging the drums of war and be forever a thing of pity. I am willing to listen and learn but you must give me substance.

Cheers.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 10:48 utc | 210

Brother Ma

They are not useless at all, that is why Russia have already begin to whine about it:

Medvedev warns NATO over supplying Ukraine with Patriot systems
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-723651

I mean Soviet/Afghan war but US/Afghan is a good comparsion too for how this will end for Russia, thanks.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 10:54 utc | 211

Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 5:54 utc | 171

Richard thanks for the detailed reply again, appreciated. i think I understand your points. I can see what you mean in each of the responses to questions. Makes sense, and you r very clear. TY Now we wait and see. I don't worry about these things but occasionally I do get curious.

and a PS
re the duran, my comments were all tongue in cheek and not serious (but maybe don't sound like that to some readers) .

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 10:55 utc | 212

I think I understand now why Ukrainian black soil is among the most fertile in the world - it's enriched by the bodies of generations of Slavs, Mongols and Germans over a thousand years or more.

And to think we feed upon the grain of that soil.

Death begets Life, and Life transforms into death, eternally ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 10:57 utc | 213

@ Zanon.

So the Russians are going to leave a "Donbass regime" in charge of Ukraine for a few years, which would fall without RF material support?

I dont even know what point you think you're making. When you compare 100'000 RF total casualties including slightly wounded.

To Ukraine's undercounted 100'000 outright KIA (excluding crippled, MIA & POW) and say that Ukraine will somehow keep that up for years. With a dead economy & depopulation.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Dec 1 2022 10:57 utc | 214

a co-ordinated attack ???
HERMIUS | Dec 1 2022 6:27 utc | 178

Damn, why wasn't I invited to the strategy meetings? That really hurts!

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 10:59 utc | 215

@margo

The deterioration of living standards will do the trick.

You dont fight the guys who bring you food, electricity and water after you suffered a few weeks without them.

Posted by: Orgel | Dec 1 2022 10:59 utc | 216

Urban Fox

Yes they will likely leave it, note that this war has been going on for 8 years and still: Donbas is not a big region but obviously Russia cannot secure Donbas nontheless, (let alone any region in this war).
So, either that (they are leaving) or this will beecome a frozen conflict, and sure no people want to live in Donbas if there are threats of shelling in such a "frozed" up area, so Russia cannot win this war, they were too weak.

Yes Ukraine have lost many lives so have Russia, still, Russia is not able to stop Ukraine so the whole focus on ukrainian deaths have obviously no impact on Russia's war effort anyway.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 11:06 utc | 217

Ukie PM Kuleba requested Nato tanks for Ukraine. They already have spent the thousand(s) of Soviet tanks they received with IOUs/donations over the last 3 months, on their attacks.

Nato would also have to deliver the gas to operate M1 Abrams tanks to eastern Ukraine. That requires even more assets than transporting liquid diesel.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:08 utc | 218

Posted by: Down South | Dec 1 2022 4:16 utc | 151

Thanks for that and your other selected updates. NATO tactics have greatly reduced the value of lower precision weapons and greatly reduced the usability of high cost aviation.

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 1 2022 11:09 utc | 219

Zanon | Dec 1 2022 11:06 utc | 218

I see you still trying to justify the upcoming slaughter.

Medvedev has been warning them to stop sending equipment for ages. Not just patriots but basically everything. So what ?

The propganda works good on you.

You believe Medvedev is scared of patriots.

Very funny :)

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 11:12 utc | 220

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 10:54 utc | 212

This war has very little in similar to Soviet/Afghan or USA/Afghan wars. The key difference is that Nato stuff and Ukrainians and mercenaries are being destroyed in industrial amounts for little of their own gains.

Afghanistan was always a hard fought partisan war, in the mountains and valleys with decent vegetation, and most of the time you didn't know where the taleban are or where they would come from next. There are no hit-or-run attacks in Ukraine, there are solid fronts. Mass artillery was of little use in Afghanistan.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:13 utc | 221

Press conference by Lavrov, over two hours long, tonight we'll hear about it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtqemFgk_nQ

Posted by: Paco | Dec 1 2022 11:14 utc | 222

I think I understand now why Ukrainian black soil is among the most fertile in the world - it's enriched by the bodies of generations of Slavs, Mongols and Germans over a thousand years or more.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 10:57 utc | 214

Dark humor aside, this is actually a very serious issue.

The black soil belt in fact stretches all the way into southern Siberia. The majority of it is in Russia itself.

The reason Russia has traditionally had trouble feeding itself was the cold and unpredictable weather, meaning harvests were generally meager and regularly failed. Ukraine is the southwest corner of Russia and thus the most climatically stable (the temperature gradient runs both north to south and east to west), and this is why it has been so crucial agriculturally for the Russian world as a whole.

But global warming means that while other places around the world will have big problems with agriculture, Russia will probably benefit. It does in fact appear to have benefited already over the last three decades - a major reason why production has gone up so much is that weather is noticeably warmer. For those who don't believe that, right now the subject of when exactly the ground will freeze so that rapid tank movements can be possible again is widely discussed, and in that context people are bringing up how last year that was also a serious consideration (when we were wondering whether there will be a war or not), and it in fact never fully froze. Because it was a mild winter. This is a common thing now in that region, yet no hard freeze would have been largely unthinkable around the time of WWII. The changes are real and very palpable.

So in addition to Russia holding much of the remaining non-renewable resources of the world, there is also the fact it that occupies northern Eurasia, and that it has a lot more fertile soil than Canada, which is the other major landmass up north towards which humanity will have to migrate as the climate crisis unfolds (the Southern hemisphere is, unfortunately for us, mostly ocean and very little land). But Canada has the problems of the massive mountain chain taking up the western third of the country and then the fact that soils in Labrador and northern Ontario are very poor. In the extension of the great plains in the middle there might be some agricultural expansion, but overall worldwide the place that will enjoy the largest agricultural boost will be Russia, because there we are talking about a very wide belt of fertile soils that is now very cold but will become warmer.

Meanwhile much of the US, Southern Europe, the Middle East, etc. will suffer serious desertification.

Ukraine itself may dry up a bit, but overall it will remain one of the most productive regions.

These considerations likely feature prominently in the fundamental reasons for the war - Russians have to be subjugated and their lands taken over. But of course you can't talk about these things in polite company, because they are uncomfortably similar to what the Nazis wanted to do...

Posted by: Tbx | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 223

It seems to me that Russian strategy in the SMO ("grinding") is what you would expect according to Lanchester's Equations (HERE). I am somewhat mystified why everybody thinks this is bad for them. Their objective is to destroy the Ukraine military, and you won't do that by trying to take Kiev, or Lvov. Neither will you do that by ending the war by negotiation. The easiest way to do that is to get them to attack your prepared defenses. Once it was clear there was going to be no agreement, the Russians switched to attrition. Since then it is all Kabuki to keep UAF coming at them, looking for the big win. The fact the West is willing to throw yet more men & material into the same sort of a favorable attrition war is just gravy. My 2c.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 224

unimperator

In Soviet/Afghan war, millions of afghanis were killed, still Soviet did not win that war. Same outcome will Russia have in this war or even worse.

The war began in December 1979, and lasted until February 1989. About 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, and about 35,000 were wounded. About two million Afghan civilians were killed. The anti-government forces had support from many countries, mainly the United States and Pakistan.
Result

Mujahideen victory
Withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan


https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War

Note also how 15k soviet soldiers die during 10 year peoriod. Already have 15k russian soldiers been killed in Ukraine during 9 month period.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

It seems to me that Russian strategy in the SMO ("grinding") is what you would expect according to Lanchester's Equations (HERE).

Andrei Martyanov went into this to some degree in one of his YouTube videos some months ago.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 11:26 utc | 226

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

If ukie army were to entrench inside cities - and if the cities were still packed with other civilians - there would be hell to pay for Russians to try normal assaulting operation. In essence, UAF would be much more efficient, and Russian army much less efficient. War is math and also efficiency and attrition ratios. This is why there has been no attempts on cities maybe excluding Mariupol. Even Nikolaev wasn't attempted.

People in the west think that Russia is using and squandering resources like Stalin and throwing troops on to useless advances. In fact, Russia does have larger resources compared to Ukraine, yet they are using them more efficiently than Nato/Ukraine. Ukraine has smaller resources. An equation where the smaller-army-to-begin-with is less efficient than the larger army is a very bad one for the former. War is math's and probabilities.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:27 utc | 227

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:27 utc | 228

Meant to add - Ukraine is more like Stalin in this sense in terms of throwing troops into useless advances. Anyone that has semi-regularly been following battle events can see that over the past many, many months.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:31 utc | 228

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 11:31 utc | 228, 229

Yes, thank you. The basic idea is to maximize your >1 attrition ratio vs your enemie(s). Which is not how the US military is in the habit of thinking about war. US thinks in terms of wonder weapons and quick victory.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:39 utc | 229

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/23001

Read the whole thing. Summary: AFU is out of artillery ammunition, out of guns. Much detail is provided for those interested. It is over. Time to dissect the corpse.

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 1 2022 11:40 utc | 230

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 11:26 utc | 227

Thanks, I (almost) never watch videos, too slow. But glad tp hear it is out there.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:41 utc | 231

Zanon | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 226

Z You are funny.

Can you play a piano with your penis ?

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 11:53 utc | 232

Re: Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 3:59 utc | 141

Funny, I don’t recall Japan doing that in World War II.

Posted by: Julian | Dec 1 2022 11:57 utc | 233

Mike Whitney from Unz Review expands on John Helmer's previous article speculating on a future DMZ in Ukraine being the ultimate maximalist goal of Russia's SMO:

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/putins-remedy-a-fragmented-toothless-ukraine-separated-by-a-100-kilometer-wide-no-mans-land/


It seems that unlike with Pepe Escobar's 'electric war' article, Unz Review was keen to credit John Helmer this time ;

Posted by: Et Tu | Dec 1 2022 12:01 utc | 234

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

Yes, it's attrition. But since some of the Ukrainian military will remain in Kiev (and Odessa and elsewhere), and the seat of the regime is there, eventually the Russians have to go there. It's that simple. As I said and everyone knows, it will only happen after the Donbass is cleared, and likely after Kharkiv and Kherson are brought back into Russian control. After that, the Russians push the Ukrainians back across the Dnieper, and probably then either go for Odessa, or as I suggest, cross the Dnieper and go for Kiev (unless they actually do try a push down from Belarus.)

Of course, it's entirely possible that the Russians have either a dumber plan or a better plan. I can imagine the dumber plan, but not the better plan as I'm not as smart, or at least as trained, as the Russian General Staff.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 12:01 utc | 235

Posted by: Julian | Dec 1 2022 11:57 utc | 234

Funny, I don’t recall Japan doing that in World War II.

Consider who they learned their industrial way of war from.

By then it was too late ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 12:04 utc | 236

Russian Aerospace Forces launch Souyz-2.1b from Plesetsk Cosmodrome
On 1 December 2022, a medium-range Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the interests of the #Russian Ministry of Defence. - telegram

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 1 2022 12:15 utc | 237

It seems to me that Russian strategy in the SMO ("grinding") is what you would expect according to Lanchester's Equations (HERE). I am somewhat mystified why everybody thinks this is bad for them. Their objective is to destroy the Ukraine military, and you won't do that by trying to take Kiev, or Lvov. Neither will you do that by ending the war by negotiation. The easiest way to do that is to get them to attack your prepared defenses. Once it was clear there was going to be no agreement, the Russians switched to attrition. Since then it is all Kabuki to keep UAF coming at them, looking for the big win. The fact the West is willing to throw yet more men & material into the same sort of a favorable attrition war is just gravy. My 2c.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

Taking it slow raises the risk of nuclear war.

If the NATO-Russia border is pushed firmly to the current Polish border, then there is no proxy through which to wage a proxy war, and direct nuclear deterrence should do its job.

But the longer this continues, the more it will escalate and the higher the chances of it spiraling into the apocalypse.

Of course, we don't have inside information, but that is how it looks like from the outside.

Posted by: Tbx | Dec 1 2022 12:16 utc | 238

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 6:12 utc | 174

absolutely agree. Australia's moral fibre, inner strength or whatever you want to call it - that substantive quality that you need to draw on in times of war - is adequately demonstrated by the people wandering around our malls wearing masks today, by our hospitals and pharmacies demanding masks, by the Victorians electing again the man that imprisoned them without charge, sentence, representation or recourse and stripped away their democratic rights...
And by its utter failure to help Julian Assange. And on and on....
Australia is three cities, is all it is. The mass of the population in those cities, most especially the 'middle class' with property and wealth to protect, would willingly and speedily come to an accommodation with any enemy.
However I can't see that making war on Australia is at all necessary.
Anything China or Indonesia, or USA, want they simply take or buy.
For instance China now grows its own beef on Australian soil, drinking Australian water where they couldn't grow their own beef because they don't have the water, and ships them to China using their own manpower and their own boats with their own crew out of their own port: Darwin.

Yep, and Mercouris is a bore now. Took a while to realise that but I now see it. They all are. Berletic, Hinckle, Ritter - any and all. Worthless listening to them. Mere speculation. Nowadays I look at the front lines as depicted by Military Summary and DPA and see that they agree; take that as the 'news of the day' about the progress of the war and turn to other things.

The war is absolutely beyond anyone's ken. It defies rational interpretation.

It daily looks more like a deadly charade than anything else.

Posted by: abrogard | Dec 1 2022 12:18 utc | 239

Arch Bungle | Dec 1 2022 12:04 utc | 236

The Japanese looked to the US and The British as examples in how to operate internationally. It was out of admiration and a sincere belief that the road to economic success was war as shown by the great powers of the time.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 12:20 utc | 240

Of course, it's entirely possible that the Russians have either a dumber plan or a better plan. I can imagine the dumber plan, but not the better plan as I'm not as smart, or at least as trained, as the Russian General Staff.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 12:01 utc | 235

Thank you for your comment.

I don't agree that the Russians are compelled to do anything. I'm mainly interested in what to make of what I see happening. That requires a lot of interpretation.

I think your discussion results from different interpretations of events, but it is sensible.

I won't spend a lot of time defending my position, I don't claim any special authority, expertise, or experience, so I don't have to.

This is the first time I have thought to bring this subject up here.

YMMV, as they say.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 12:22 utc | 241

I was interested to read complaints about ads in Alexander Mercouris' videos. Until then I was not aware that there were any ads in these videos. I watch through Microsoft Edge protected by Adblock Plus. The combination seems to get me Mercouris' videos on Youtube with no ads.

I can also watch the Duran videos and ones by Gonzalo Lira without ads.

Posted by: Ross | Dec 1 2022 12:28 utc | 242

It seems to me that Russian strategy in the SMO ("grinding") is what you would expect according to Lanchester's Equations (HERE).

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225

I have my doubts about this "grinding" strategy. Ukraine can mobilize millions more - not to mention foreigners fighting on its side. Does it make sense that Russia first kills them all before it starts conquering territory? Even if the kill rate is 1:10 it would mean lots of dead Russians too.

The goal of Russia is not to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. It is to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a treaty that Russia likes. And that won't happen as long as most Ukrainians and most people in the West believe that they are winning. Propaganda won't work: Western propaganda is stronger. The only thing that can break through propaganda are undeniable facts on the ground. Obviously the withdrawal from Kiev, the Ukrainian Kharkov offensive and the withdrawal from Kherson are not the kind of fact that will convince anyone that Russia is winning.

Posted by: Wim | Dec 1 2022 12:32 utc | 243

Taking it slow raises the risk of nuclear war.

If the NATO-Russia border is pushed firmly to the current Polish border, then there is no proxy through which to wage a proxy war, and direct nuclear deterrence should do its job.

But the longer this continues, the more it will escalate and the higher the chances of it spiraling into the apocalypse.

Of course, we don't have inside information, but that is how it looks like from the outside.

Posted by: Tbx | Dec 1 2022 12:16 utc | 238

Not saying you are wrong, but:

Harassing Russia on its borders might do that too. At this point one must echo Cheney by saying: "So?" Existential is existential. Russia has already said it is not going down alone. If "the West" chooses to ignore that, well, same rules for everybody until they get a clue ...

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 12:34 utc | 244

Outraged | Dec 1 2022 9:31 utc | 200

Thanks for sharing that. I am respectful of your motive for choosing your user name. I will honor your intentions and henceforth use it sans sarc.


Frui vita amicus meus.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 12:36 utc | 245

Do you think Zelensky is a Freemason ? Or Biden ?
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 7:54 utc | 186

Sure I think Biden is a freemason. With his US Deep State background, there's no way he is not. As for Ze, he doesn't need to be a freemason, he is the genuine article.

But why HOMOsexual Initiation rites? Is it for blackmail purposes? Is it to foster a “brotherhood “ of sorts? Is it simply to do a “thrilling “ thing which is so against their public image? Is it that disproportionately more gays are attracted to such secret societies , and thus it is normal for them to indulge in an initiation rite that happens to be homosexual? I don’t get it . Why?
Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 8:07 utc | 189

For network building. It provides a way for network members (pun intended) to share a shameful, secret bond. This is not possible with hetero connections, because it would form an alternating chain, not a true network; and because it would not be so compromising. This method of bonding, creating an artificial clan through homosexual relationships, has been practiced before: the Ancient Greek practice of paederasty had this type of lifelong bonding as its chief goal.
In later times, this practice was discreetly continued as "fagging" in prestigious British prep schools such as Eton, also with the intent to create lasting networks, leading to homosexually-bonded political groups such as Milner's Kindergarten, and many others. Blackmail potential is just an added benefit, for when a member should turn rebellious.

Posted by: BearN | Dec 1 2022 12:40 utc | 246

Posted by: Wim | Dec 1 2022 12:32 utc | 243

Thank you for your comment.

I don't agree that Russia wants to conquer territory.

I think the goal is to kill as many Russophobes as are willing to show up for it. Ukraine will pacify itself before this is done.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 12:41 utc | 247

Everybody looking at current RF military distribution territory can see that RF is getting ready for a hopefully conventional confrontation with NATO, spilling well outside Ukrainian battle space.

Forces accumulated on RF Western borders show almost ideal offensive-defensive forces posture, strong enough to withstand any NATO “intervention” while being also capable of massive air-ground retaliation deep into NATO territory.

NATO knows this and is rather in panic mode for some time.

That is why Ursula VdL, various EU plus German politicians and Macron squeal their insults, stupidity, and desperation around.
Basically, it is a giant military pressure point that EU/NATO/US cannot withstand in any shape or form.

In my view, it is not important as in the number of troops, but their strategic-combat presence, purpose, mix, and a technical level is way over the formidable.
Overall, RF has set the conditions for having the ultimate upper hand over the whole European spectrum.

All that is valid, if this interactive map is nearly as accurate as it seems it might be.

The way out for NATO/US is to give up, admit defeat, and start negotiations asap. And unfortunately for them, under the RF terms.

Ukraine is not a biggest stone in the shoe for RF any more, so it seems.

What is needed to understand this position is self-awareness in a lack of basically everything to sustain RF's pressure.
There is basically nothing West can do or send whatever 'wunderwaffen' to Ukraine to have any change of reality – except keep on insulting, twisting the facts, lying and obfuscating own public.

I am curious to see how they will attempt to try to prepare the terrain for a possible last desperate try to bang up 'the coalition of the willing' and try to 'protect helpless Ukrainians'.

Surely a cynical question arises out of NATO/US every move so far – what could go wrong?

Posted by: whirlX | Dec 1 2022 12:51 utc | 248

Does anyone know what the connection/affection the Ukie soldiers have for the pirate Blackbeard's flag? I saw a young one wearing it on his chest in a recent hromadske video. Now it appears that people can buy a Ukie (supposedly) Blackbeard flag patch on ebay.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/134153486720

It didn't end well for the real Blackbeard but he created a legend. Argh, we're all pirates now...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Dec 1 2022 12:56 utc | 249

Posted by: Wim | Dec 1 2022 12:32 utc | 243
"Ukraine can mobilize millions more - not to mention foreigners fighting on its side."

Actually they can't. 1) You need to arm and train; throwing untrained bodies into the kill zone just raises the kill ratio even worse than it is now. This is what we're seeing on the battlefield and in the videos on Telegram;. 2) you have to be able to feed and supply those millions - Ukraine can't do it with civilian vehicles once the trains stop running because the electricity is out; 3) winter has come - you have to provide clothing or your millions die of frostbite.

And the West can't supply them with what they need to be effective, this is very clear. As Berletic and others have pointed out, sending 20 million rounds of ammo sounds like a lot. It isn't. It will barely last a few days or weeks. If you have "millions of men", it lasts even less.

"Does it make sense that Russia first kills them all before it starts conquering territory? Even if the kill rate is 1:10 it would mean lots of dead Russians too."

Russia will do what it is already doing - retreating while killing huge numbers of Ukrainians, then mobilizing another 300,000 troops to help them kill more faster. Not a problem. Remember, this is an artillery war and the Russians outgun them, which is why the kill ratio is so disproportionate in favor of Russia.

"The goal of Russia is not to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. It is to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a treaty that Russia likes."

That may have been the goal in March, although I doubt it. It certainly isn't the goal now. The goal now is total defeat of Ukraine, the removal of the regime, and the reorientation of the country to be as compliant with Russia as Belarus is. At least, that should be the goal. Russia is fully aware that no agreement is possible with either the Kiev regime or the US neocons who are in charge of Ukraine.

"The only thing that can break through propaganda are undeniable facts on the ground."

That's what the upcoming offensive is for.

Russia doesn't need to convince anyone that they're winning, other than their own population. All they have to do is win, and as I've said before, absent some incredibly stupid mistakes or the use of nukes by Ukraine or NATO in Ukraine, it's physically impossible for Russia to lose based on the military balance.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 12:59 utc | 250

Z[anon] You are funny.

Can you play a piano with your penis ?

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 11:53 utc | 233

That's what he already does, but as he always hits the same key, everyone thinks he is playing a triangle.

Posted by: Leuk | Dec 1 2022 13:11 utc | 251

DakotaRog | Dec 1 2022 12:56 utc | 248

Very appropriate symbol for a death cult.

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 13:13 utc | 252

EU lowering price cap for Russian oil – Bloomberg
The bloc is seeking a compromise to allow Moscow to sell its crude for $60 a barrel
https://swentr.site/business/567470-russia-oil-price-cap-eu/

As usual Russia is 1 step behind, Russia should have raised the price or blocked gas/oil to EU after EU began to arm, fund and ultimatelly kill russian soldiers.


Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 13:16 utc | 253

Do you think Zelensky is a Freemason ? Or Biden ?
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 7:54 utc | 186

Zelensky sure but Biden claims to be a Catholic where Freemasonry is forbidden.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 1 2022 13:21 utc | 254

Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 225


Once it was clear there was going to be no agreement, the Russians switched to attrition. Since then it is all Kabuki to keep UAF coming at them, looking for the big win. The fact the West is willing to throw yet more men & material into the same sort of a favorable attrition war is just gravy. My 2c.

I am in agreement.
This is why I am persuaded by those with the view that the Russians intend to move slowly for the next phase of operations. They intend to threaten a little, pretend to flee a little, then let the enemy impale themselves on their wall of pikes.

There are other significant advantages of moving slow:
1. Give time for civilians to flee to the West and western Ukraine, especially those who are anti Russian and who will pose the most problems when the lands are indeed occupied.
2. Foment an refugee problem in the countries west of Ukraine to put strain on their economies.
3. Extend as long as possible the draining of NATO weapons stocks
4. Avoid alarming the citizenry of NATO so much that they get off their butts and rally themselves against Russia...in effect keep boring them
5. Keep NATO/West distracted with this local conflict, while the real war...the global economic war is being fought. Once Saudi Arabia starts selling its oil outside the USD, you will know that is the economic Stalingrad moment.

Posted by: littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 13:26 utc | 255

@ whirlX | Dec 1 2022 12:51 utc | 247

Um, concur re the 'general' thrust of your post, yet ...

Unfortunately, re the map, source, accuracy ... um, the date/timestamps of the visualized dataset ?

Created date: 2018-07-30 08:01:29
Latst modified date: 2022-02-09 03:00:34
?

Um ? Happy to be mistaken/corrected ...

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 13:27 utc | 256

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 13:16 utc | 252

This has been discussed ad-infinitum. What happens is EU will end up continuously buying oil at a premium over global benchmarks, until the market simply sorts itself out and the global benchmarks once again represent a true global price.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 13:33 utc | 257

That's what [Zanon] already does [playing a piano], but as he always hits the same key, everyone thinks he is playing a triangle.

Posted by: Leuk | Dec 1 2022 13:11 utc | 250

As usual Russia is 1 step behind, etc.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 13:16 utc | 252

Posted by: Leuk | Dec 1 2022 13:37 utc | 258

@ DakotaRog | Dec 1 2022 12:56 utc | 248

Total submission, otherwise death & slaughter, without mercy. Quite apropos.

@ littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 13:26 utc | 254

Indeed.

Though KSA has already switched to selling its fossil fuels to China in Yuan (mid-late Oct IIRC). Prompted USA to withdraw all AD systems ... KSA ? Meh. KSA has applied to join BRICS.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 13:40 utc | 259

«Kay is a professing Christian and was married to Marine Corps Colonel George Griggs in the late 1980s, who raised to an influential position as Chief of Staff.»

From the obituary of an MI6/SIS top manager:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/john-clibborn-9q99hkxt2>
Quintessentially English men happiest outside England often enter the clandestine world. [...] His Roman Catholic faith remained central to him, although in later years, knowing himself, he did not take communion since he could not reconcile it with decisions he made in the office.

Posted by: Blissex | Dec 1 2022 13:48 utc | 260

Mercouris notes a decrease in western media reporting and change of tone as loss of interest. It may be that they see that thieir readers tire of subject and that they are destroying credibility with nonstop screaming one sided reporting while there is availability of info which refutes their depiction.
But this neglects to consider that there are many people in west working for government and private interests who are paid to make this thing work - without this thing they are potentially out of work and they are not paid to take a personal interest in what is happening - they are paid to produce.
I thing is sensible to look at history, recent and not so recent, it fairly repeats. So far the US sees benefit from war, Europe takin beating, Turkey seems to benefit, China playing the middle and seems tied up with own issues, ...
Looking at ten years of open conflict followed by covert operations - its about not giving up. When the empire sees than it is losing money is when it will lose interest. Well discounting the possibility that the people of Ukraine have any influence - Ukraine a failed state, Zelensky a warlord. Russia needs to plan long term - who will follow Putin. Russia is on sustainable path, maybe. Daily events mean little except to those in the field.

Posted by: jared | Dec 1 2022 13:51 utc | 261

Destroying Ukrainian energy infrastructure is the best strategy for Russia. Simple as that.

Posted by: Margo | Dec 1 2022 14:02 utc | 262

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washingtons-carthaginian-peace-collides-with-reality/

Finally, the truth is rising up. This isn't just You Tube anymore. Biden is lying but what else is new? Ukraine isn't winning and cannot win, as it says.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 1 2022 14:11 utc | 263

@Richard Steven Hack 163 and 235

I do not believe Russia needs to clear the Donbas before capturing Kiev. Russia can leave enough personnel to defend their current front line while introducing approximately 250,000 - 300,000 new troops, some of which should drop down from Belarus while 1000 of Russia's 1500 tanks should cross just above Zaporizhia to someplace around Uman, about 350 miles from Donetsk. From here, Russia would have many options to capture Kiev and cut off all supplies to the eastern and southern Ukraine forces. Once Kiev is destroyed and all television stations and other forms of communication are under Russian control, much of the population will support Russia and I believe the U.S. and NATO will stay out of it.

I believe the remaining Ukrainian forces will surrender when they realize they cannot be resupplied and no longer have satellite information and their communication ability is limited or non-existent.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Dec 1 2022 14:21 utc | 265

US will train 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers a month in Germany"-CNN

"According to the new program, the US will begin to train much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more complex combat tactics, including coordinating infantry maneuvers with artillery support

https://t.me/azmilitary11/29805

I've lost track on how many soldiers EU, EU members and USA have pledged to train. I think EU (collectively) was talking about something like 20k, maybe 40k per year (at very highest). Now USA pledged to train 30k per year.

So lets say they can train 50k per year, or ~4100 per month, which is very optimistic expectation. Let's say very conservatively Ukraine is 150 per day, or 4500 per month. The pledges won't even cover current losses, not to mention they would be building up any new reserve.

The other component of Ukraine is of course force conscripted people on the street, who may be given a week or two training and thrown into another "diversionary attack". With these attacks, losses can be several magnitudes higher. If they do what they did during Summer of 2022, they might be able to build some kind of new reserve. But I doubt even a small reserve they manage to build will really mean anything.

Ukraine is toast. The only way they can still achieve something is Poles, Balts, USA etc. send their own troops, own formations and own weapons. That won't happen, IMO.

Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 14:31 utc | 266

Posted by: littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 13:26 utc | 254

Yes. A good strategy works in many ways.

The early part, as several others have reported, was a reconnaissance in force, to:

1.) See if an agreement was possible,
2.) To prepare the battlefield and determine more about the enemies capabilities, dispositions, and intentions.
3.) To grab what was easy,
4.) To see who was willing to fight for you
5.) To engage politics back home

Only with the withdrawal from Kiev does it shift to attrition war, and then they have lots of territory to "defend".

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 1 2022 14:33 utc | 267

Zanon [226]

Do you by any chance have figures for US losses in Vietnam or Afghanistan ?

Afghanistan is very different terrain from Ukraine as you know the Central European Plain is flat from Germany to Moscow with few defensible barriers. Pathans are mountain tribes straddling Afghan/Pak border

Not sure how your analogies bring any enlightenment

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 14:35 utc | 268

@ jared | Dec 1 2022 13:51 utc | 260
When the empire sees than it is losing money is when it will lose interest.
How does the empire ever lose money?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 1 2022 14:35 utc | 269

Philip Roddis has a story, from Politico, about the growing rift between Europe and the US as a result of the Ukraine situation:

"Nine months after invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is beginning to fracture the West.

Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration and now accuse the Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer.

“The fact is, if you look at it soberly, the country that is most profiting from this war is the U.S. because they are selling more gas and at higher prices, and because they are selling more weapons,” one senior official told POLITICO.

"The explosive comments — backed in public and private by officials, diplomats and ministers elsewhere — follow mounting anger in Europe over American subsidies that threaten to wreck European industry. The Kremlin is likely to welcome the poisoning of the atmosphere among Western allies.

“We are really at a historic juncture,” the senior EU official said, arguing that the double hit of trade disruption from U.S. subsidies and high energy prices risks turning public opinion against both the war effort and the transatlantic alliance. “America needs to realize that public opinion is shifting in many EU countries.”

"Another top official, the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, called on Washington to respond to European concerns. “Americans — our friends — take decisions which have an economic impact on us,” he said in an interview with POLITICO.

"The U.S. rejected Europe’s complaints. “The rise in gas prices in Europe is caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and Putin’s energy war against Europe, period,” a spokesperson for Biden’s National Security Council said. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to Europe “increased dramatically and enabled Europe to diversify away from Russia,” the NSC spokesperson said ….."

It sounds about right: the hysterical propaganda about Russia's 'unprovoked aggression' is wearing off like cheap amphetamines. And now Europe is 'coming down' back to the reality that it is in the frontline of the US war against Russia, a buffer zone behind which north Americans can sit back and watch as, from the Urals to the channel, Europe tears itself apart at the bidding of a wet behind the ears' generation of wannabe Americans who would sell their mothers for a smile from the White House.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 1 2022 14:39 utc | 270

Posted in UNZ, Russia to make DMZ of 100 miles? This immediate call for halt is to protect what remains of the Ukraine.

I wondered what the mass-murderer Zelenski could possibly gain by sacrificing his people but the creation of the new country ROJAVA is the US goal, and has been for a decade. This is why the agreement to NOT BOMB the Tabqua dam was VIOLATED, why the US has kept thousands of men, women and children penned like animals in tent camps in eastern Syria, why the US won't leave in spite of being in violation of a SOVEREIGN NATION'S territory, why the majority of arms shipments to the Ukraine have disappeared, and why a decade ago WIKI had a page for the country of ROJAVA which did not then and does not now exist. All this in service to greed; an oil line from the eastern Syrian fields thru northern Syria to the Med to furnish Russian -free oil to the EU.

Posted by: katesisco | Dec 1 2022 14:39 utc | 271

Don Bacon losing money is not the issue. Losing everything is. The destruction of Western business principles of sanctity of contract and private property is history. The Risk Premium has increased

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 14:40 utc | 272

reply to 264

This horrific war was driven by a minority of Azov fanatics and continues that way. They threatened Zelensky and hold guns to drive recruits forward into death. I don't see how surrender ever happens.

The proper analogies are Korea or Hamas. They will talk big and lob the occasional missile and never negotiate - but as those examples show, this can be dealt with.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 1 2022 14:41 utc | 273

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 1 2022 4:28 utc | 152

Bodysnatcher. Wasn't me.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 1 2022 14:43 utc | 274

Does anyone know what the connection/affection the Ukie soldiers have for the pirate Blackbeard's flag? .............

Posted by: DakotaRog | Dec 1 2022 12:56 utc | 248

Nerd alert here, related to Star Trek, as I know a bit of trivia that might show how Ukraine could give us an example of life imitating art which imitated life.

If Ukraine/Zelenskyy eventually are forced to agree to most of Russia's terms, then the Neo-Nazis who are the enforcers might in large part refuse to become law abiding citizens, and they could quickly set themself up as a cross between a Mafia and the ex SS soldiers featured in The Odessa File. (Gun running, drug running, and extortion, being obvious avenues to explore to initially get themself up and running.)

Pirates in other words, in the classical mold of those who were former British officers who went from serving their King as privateers, to just serving themself.

In the Star Trek Universe the Orion Syndicate (that Green dancing lady in "The Menagerie" episode was Orion, and we saw much more of the Orions in an episode of the Trek show, Enterprise) devolved from being the Space Navy and government of the Orion Empire. A few wars didn't go their way, but they weren't about to give up their taste for luxury, and their habit of killing to acquire power and wealth. Not all of that is "canon", but IIRC it made it into at least one Trek novel.

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Orion_Syndicate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Odessa_File

Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 1 2022 14:47 utc | 275

[272]

All armies have enforcers to keep front lines from retreating. Azov is not a minority but a CIA-trained cadre directing operations on the ground

It is like saying Waffen-SS drove Germany Army to butcher civilians and commit war crimes. Waffen-SS was not part of German Army at all and under different command structure but German Army was bestial in its own right

Ukraine will find up like Carthage

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 14:51 utc | 276

@ Posted by: Tbx | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 224

Regarding the changing agricultural potential in the world due to geophysical changes.

That is a pretty comprehensible summation thanks.

Of course the World Island theory is long established now. So is the knowledge of ancient cycles, which are beyond Eurocentric History records, many are preserved via the allegories and astral records of ancient calendars and religious texts.

However it is certain that the most productive arable lands in a few hundred years will be the current Siberian lands. And the connection through the current polar area over from Canada and the Scandinavian lands are the most desired by the Ancient Masters.
Heck Trump even made a bid to buy Greenland!

There is a case that the equatorial regions will suffer desertification but it is not a certainty. The African continent is also need massive and will hold 4 billions as a population certainly by the mid C22nd. That will also be the peak point of max human population as it plateaus and then over the following centuries follows the downward slope of the Bell curve. At that point by mid millenia the need for agricultural output will be declining!

The rapacious financiers and Slave Owners of the world with their proxies and weapons of mass destruction that are useless as holding a knife to their own throat is a diversion.

The greatest danger we face as humans or indeed the planet 🌎 is of course the dangers unknown/ forgotten except as distant folk memory and some ancient yet undiscovered monuments. Fortunately there are large majorities of humans who are not inducted into the secretive clubs as some have described in the comments here. Their leadership is the only hope for collective protection of the planet and humanity if we are to survive to the see in the year 3000.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 1 2022 14:53 utc | 277

Looking forward to years upon years of daily Zanon posts. "Yet another trashcan has been set on fire in Belgorod. As I've said for the millionth time, Russia is incapable of protecting itself. Any day now, a strategically important object of trash infrastructure will be destroyed and Russia will fall!"

Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 1 2022 9:51 utc | 203

All this chatter from Z about the mighty Ukrainian army and I think, "Hmm, if I were an amateur, I'd bet against the side that has no electricity. You usually need power and light to win a war." But I was wrong. I forgot about the army of Ukrainian trash-toppling raccoons. Slava Ukraini!

Posted by: Ursula Zandt | Dec 1 2022 14:53 utc | 278

Posted by: Babel-17 | Dec 1 2022 14:47 utc | 274

As a kid I was a big fan of this show. You just motivated me to watch a few episodes tonight if the World Cup get boring.

Thanks :-)

Posted by: Tom_12 | Dec 1 2022 14:54 utc | 279

reply to 275

Loosely defined, the Azov/Neo Nazi types threatened Zelensky with hanging. McGregor relates the report about Romanian and Polish troops refusing to advance into certain slaughter - by the "Azov" enforcers. An "altercation" ensued in which some Neo Nazi types got killed. By this analogy, I'd say the "Waffen" had some common sense.

Ukraine = Carthage? Pretty much. Sowing the soil with remote mines costs more than 'sowing the ground with salt' but will be more effective.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 1 2022 14:58 utc | 280

@ bevin | Dec 1 2022 14:39 utc | 269

'Twas inevitable. Empire is devouring it's puppy vassals. Unsustainable.

All whilst Russia grows stronger, & with China & Iran unite in common cause. As the RoW awakes & rises from it's abusive submission.

Again, am increasingly astounded by the accelerating pace of geostrategic events ...

Is it possible it may not take two or more winters for EU/NATO to fracture/collapse ?

Coca-Cola Company & fellow compradors will not be pleased Youtube. Runtime: 3m35s

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 14:59 utc | 281

Paul Greenwood

Great you point that out, in Afghanistan 2600 american died, that is for a 20 year long war, how many russians have died in Ukraine is hard to tell but many times more than 2500, and that is for only 9 months! A terrible distaster by Russia that is.

Mountains? The point is how many mountains this or that country have but the analogy that US and Russia make the same mistakes regarding these conflicts.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 15:01 utc | 282

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 11:20 utc | 226

We discussed this before. A plausible reason is that Russia is fighting a close -to -peer group in conventional battles whereas they lost fewer in Afghanistan in Eighties as it was not a conventional battle ground and they were only fighting guerrillas with small arms and stingers in the main. Obviously Russia loses more now.

Posted by: BearN | Dec 1 2022 12:40 utc | 245

Yes indeed , didn’t Socrates save his protegee and past young lover Alcibiades’ life in one of the Persian wars?

https://www.dreamstime.com/socrates-defends-wounded-alcibiades-old-book-xenophon-k-gibel-st-petersburg-socrates-defends-wounded-alcibiades-image180236753

Pretty good work for a greybeard intellectual ! Sheesh. Can you imagine a Modern Hollywood screenwriter or Silicon Valley social media mogul be knee-deep in blood and gut face to face with the enemy these days. They made men of sterner stuff then. Also Ex- Brit PMs Cameron (chicken -fucker) ,Blair (frottage= public wanker at kids’ playgrounds ), Gordon Brown ( enabler and hider of paedophiles) .

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 12:20 utc | 240

The Japanese were practically Honorary White men at the turn of the last century, especially after them thrashing the Russians at Tsushima in 1905. In fact ,some say that the Z insignia of Russia in this war is tongue in cheek for Japan’s code symbol for attack in that battle. The Japanese were even given room to also rape China etc and did in the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 as the Brit /US saw them as superior to the Chinese. The Japs even escorted the Anzacs to Europe to fight in Gallipoli! Something few Aussies and Kiwis know or broadcast loudly . The Brits loved the Japs defeating Russia in 1905 , as it stopped the Russian influence in the East, and thus a threat to their precious India . Like China does today ,it then turned the tables on the Brit /Yanks and the US /Brits had to stop Jap exports of people, to them and us /Brit exports of rubber ,steel to Japan , and keep Japan’s navy restricted. Well you know how that ended up with Pearl Harbour. Japan’s intellectuals and political class adored the Brits and you can see the main elderly Jap diplomats signing the surrender agreement in Tokyo Bay 1945 still wearing top hat and tuxedo etc.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Dec 1 2022 15:01 utc | 283

Ursula Zandt

Ukraine have already managed to the power back for majority of people days back. So much for the might russian strikes LOL.

Week in Ukraine: Power back on for many but more Russian strikes expected (Nov. 28)

Repairs to the power grid were almost complete after Russian strikes on key Ukrainian infrastructure left millions without electricity, heat and water.

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/28/1138334659/latest-news-russia-ukraine-war-nov-28

Obviously bombing electricity site have no impact on how the battlefield, which is of course is the site Russia should bomb if they seek any progress.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 15:06 utc | 284

BearN

That is the point, Soviet did not know how to fight the afghanis and lost the war and many lives, same in Ukraine they do not know how to defeat Ukraine and thus lose territories and thousands of soldiers.

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 15:09 utc | 285

Posted by: Zanon | Dec 1 2022 15:06 utc | 283

National Public Radio as a source? May as well use a direct line to Langley.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Dec 1 2022 15:10 utc | 286

@ DakotaRog | Dec 1 2022 14:14 utc | 263
@ Babel-17 | Dec 1 2022 14:47 utc | 274

Wikimedia (Jpg) has two OUN-Nazi scum displaying their 'submission or death' flag, using a bound, blindfolded, bootless RF POW as a visual prop ... near Izyum.

War crime re POW. Object of ridicule & public curiosity.

Note: Through WWII, even Korea was considered breach of Geneva Conventions to bind/restrain/blindfold 'under control' POWs, French Indochina & Vietnam changed all that ... those days are long gone ...

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 15:13 utc | 287

Posted by: Klaatu | Dec 1 2022 13:13 utc | 251

Wondering if organ harvesting is classified as agriculture under Ukrainian law.

Asking for a friend ;)

Posted by: anon2020 | Dec 1 2022 15:16 utc | 288

The war is absolutely beyond anyone's ken. It defies rational interpretation. It daily looks more like a deadly charade than anything else.

Posted by: abrogard | Dec 1 2022 12:18 utc | 239

Well said, abrogard.

(Of course some maintain that 'deadly charade' well defines all forms of so-called 'real life.')

Posted by: Scorpion | Dec 1 2022 15:16 utc | 289

Brave Browser/Search: I have placed a BRIEF descriptive post on the Non-Ukraine Open thread at about #150ish (regular MoA readers know the post#s change as b does his moderation).

Not a big deal, just emotion-free info.

Posted by: Old canadian | Dec 1 2022 15:17 utc | 290

global benchmarks once again represent a true global price.
Posted by: unimperator | Dec 1 2022 13:33 utc | 256

There is no such thing as "global benchmarks". First of all, this term enters popular imagination of one ("a true global price") clearing price for any and all commodity quantities, delivered or not, derivative (eg.ETF) or not, reported or not, by all buyers and sellers to a small group of "on-shore" (AE) publishers established to proscribe market intelligence and competition to trading activity and value systems among advanced economy (AE) participants. Such are macro-economic fallacies pertaining to theoretical "perfect competion," FKA "perfect knowledge", "globalism," and a totalizing "messaging system" (eg. electronic interbank transactions, ie. SWIFT network) tied to the IMF imperial basket and measured by USD-denominated exchange rates to any and all national currencies.

Second, in practice "offshore" (perpetual EME) commodity trading, like politics, is local. Real economic activity is local. Value systems (axiology) are local. And the velocity of money exchanged between "unaligned" countries up to their eyeballs in US-denominated debt operates under headline AE surveillance of so-called global "stability". I'm talking desk to desk, P2P. Even BIS can't keep track of "de-centralized" transactions in money or kind.

That said, I would like to believe that everyone who patronizes this particular URL now realizes that the RF, CN confrontations with centuries-long "Great Power", G7, militant supremacy has exposed the boundaries of rationality that satisfies personal climate control and cravings for chocolate confections, possibly spiritual enlightement.

Posted by: sln2002 | Dec 1 2022 15:26 utc | 291

How does the empire ever lose money?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 1 2022 14:35 utc | 268

Thats a good question and I think also:

Don Bacon losing money is not the issue. Losing everything is. The destruction of Western business principles of sanctity of contract and private property is history. The Risk Premium has increased

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Dec 1 2022 14:40 utc | 271

a good answer - issue is not simply money, but loss of credibility (not the right word but the general idea).

It would not have to mean failure of the empire, just that they would see the cost not justified by projected benefit. But perhaps the empire is frightened that failure in this endeavor would precipitate failure of larger project - is not an option. But with time they would adjust perspective and would allow themselves to move on.

But to the point of losing money - there are costs in terms of resources and time and risk and opportunity (the things you would buy with money). They cannot run out of dollars, but can go broke by squandering opportunity and losing their way. It is written in history, I think.

Posted by: jared | Dec 1 2022 15:28 utc | 292

Strange packages turn up in Spain at Ukraine, US embassies as well as arms manufacturing plant supplying Ukraine with weapons on the same day Lavrov, for the first time, openly calls NATO an active participant to the conflict. It could also just be a coincidence...

https://www.rt.com/news/567490-explosive-package-found-us-embassy-spain/

https://www.rt.com/news/567501-us-nato-ukraine-involved/

Posted by: Et Tu | Dec 1 2022 15:33 utc | 293

@ RSH and others re the Duranboys
“ I was impressed by his legal care and precise use of language. Unfortunately when done verbally it takes ten times as long to get his point.”

Anyone not aware that Alexander is using the barrister’s style of presentation of his case, should perhaps look up some old Rumpoles or televised lawyerly Inquiries - such as the now history binned Leveson Inquiry - which was magnificent and as such all its recommendations were binned!

So Mercouris style is exact. He can’t be accused of making false statements. He makes his caveats clear. He sometimes can’t hide his true feeling or shows it - a clear way of getting across to a jury some fact not admissible by a judge! Etc. In reality there is not much difference in most of the ‘Indy’ reporters out here. They have different styles. Some use maps, others videos and screen shots, Mercouris uses words alone.

Funnily enough I have found it to be soporific enough to fall asleep to! Often having to catch up when awake again at breakfast!

Posted by: DunGroanin | Dec 1 2022 15:33 utc | 294

This……

5. Keep NATO/West distracted with this local conflict, while the real war...the global economic war is being fought. Once Saudi Arabia starts selling its oil outside the USD, you will know that is the economic Stalingrad moment.

Posted by: littlereddot | Dec 1 2022 13:26 utc | 254<\I>

Posted by: Exile | Dec 1 2022 15:33 utc | 295

@Comandante | Dec 1 2022 1:22 utc | 108

Never listening to Alexander Mercouris youtubes. The dude has a commercial every 3 minutes on his channel. Talk about greed. He was decent but cant stomach his ads. Bye.
So you are an idiot. Free tip: Install Brave Browser and try again.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 1 2022 15:40 utc | 296

At this point, Russia's grinding strategy is probably as much about making the US/NATO give up as anything else. Ukraine falls when the US stops supplying it and supporting it, but more importantly, the reputational damage to the US empire is incalculable. Big arrow offensives and taking Kiev give good reason for the US to continue or even better alter the plan with governments in exile and insurgency which the US is far more adept at than conventional war.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 1 2022 15:46 utc | 297

@Roger | Dec 1 2022 2:08 utc | 123

Stopped listening to Mercouris' longer talks for that very reason, I walk away to make a coffee etc. and immediately another commercial! Incredibly annoying. Doesn't seem to be a problem on the shorter videos. The Greek chap walkabouts are also still ok.
I don't believe you people are that retarded. So what is the agenda? Surely you know how to avoid ads on YouTube. I have NEVER seen a single ad on YouTube and I see many every day. And obviously, you can also see his videos in many other places. But you know that.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 1 2022 15:47 utc | 298

The situation globally seems daunting for US.
Theyve lost manufacturing base and educated skilled workforce.
They are financial basket case in spite of or because of world currency.
They are aging.
They have companies like FTX.
Need to tell Russia, China: Give us 50 years and we shall return.
There is risk they could fail by this endeavor.

Posted by: jared | Dec 1 2022 15:51 utc | 299

Curious that Ursula says they need war crimes tribunal to try the Russians. Seems to suggest the trial part is formality.

Zelensky seems to no longer be serious figure, more entertainer.

Posted by: jared | Dec 1 2022 15:54 utc | 300

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