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November 30, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-213
Comments
Intel slava telegram reporting that NLAWs have made their way to Latin America. Could be a hoax though. So far I haven’t seen definitive proof that American weaponry has made its way out of Ukraine but I think it would be foolish to think Ukrainian officials aren’t selling off some of the equipment. I remember hearing some commentator say that it was okay if Ukraine was selling off US arms so they could use the money to buy Turkish drones, but that’s all building off hearsay.
Posted by: fnord | Nov 30 2022 15:27 utc | 1
Stoltenberg & Blinken re-affirm NATO pledge to bring Ukraine in.
Anti-war.com’s Dave DeCamp covers the NATO meeting yesterday in Bucharest, kind of a reunion of the 2008 meeting where the fuse was lit.
“We made the decision in Bucharest in 2008 at the summit,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday. “I was there … representing Norway as Prime Minister. I remember very well the decisions. We stand by those decisions. NATO’s door is open.”
In a joint statement, the NATO foreign ministers, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said that they “reaffirm” the decisions that were made at the 2008 Bucharest summit.
jaw dropping.
https://news.antiwar.com/2022/11/29/nato-doubles-down-on-pledge-to-eventually-admit-ukraine/
Posted by: migueljose | Nov 30 2022 15:40 utc | 2
@1
I also vaguely remember something about Finnish gangs having gotten their hands on some weapons meant for the Ukraine as well, don’t remember if that included NLAWs though. Wouldn’t be really surprised if it did seeing as you can just fit them in your car trunk
Posted by: leaf | Nov 30 2022 15:41 utc | 3
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 15:28 utc | 267
look for “travel or maybe “traffic” – then chose car icon? then zoom in?
Here’s a link to what I watch right now.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 16:04 utc | 4
Stoltenburg is a fool.
There won’t be a Ukraine as currently known after this debacle.
https://t.me/intelslava/42086?single
Ursula von der Leyen has deleted a video message in which she talks about more than 100,000 losses of the Ukrainian military since the beginning of the special operation.
I can only manage sarcasm after that.
Tragically stupid politicians.
Oldengineer
Posted by: Oldengineer | Nov 30 2022 16:11 utc | 5
indian punchline today – Conflict in Ukraine is doomed to escalate
Posted by: james | Nov 30 2022 16:34 utc | 6
from M. K. Bhadrakumar twitter –
Russian MOD announces that Andreevka settlement, just 10 miles from tactically important Sloviansk city (Donetsk) on highway from Bakhmut — has been “completely liberated”. Russian operation in Donbass gaining rapid momentum following the induction of regular troops.
Posted by: james | Nov 30 2022 16:42 utc | 7
Posted by: migueljose | Nov 30 2022 15:40 utc | 2
This could end up being the signature on Ukraine’s death certificate.
Posted by: Michigan Dude | Nov 30 2022 16:47 utc | 8
@ Oldengineer | Nov 30 2022 16:11 utc | 5
Is this the very first time that Ursula von der LIER speaks some truth ?
Posted by: YIU | Nov 30 2022 16:51 utc | 9
US: Do as we say, not as we do
Statement by President Biden on Russia’s Missile Strikes – Oct 10, 2022
The United States strongly condemns Russia’s missile strikes today across Ukraine, including in Kyiv. These attacks killed and injured civilians and destroyed targets with no military purpose. They once again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people.
We offer our condolences to the families and loved ones of those who were senselessly killed today, as well as our best wishes for the recovery of those who were wounded.
These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.
We again call on Russia to end this unprovoked aggression immediately and remove its troops from Ukraine. . .here
US Operation Iraqi Freedom
US destruction of Raqqa here and Mosul here.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 16:55 utc | 10
New wave of Russian missle strikes, Air defense activated over the whole country. Russia is attacking across the whole donetsk front.
This will probably get ukraine some fighters with air to air missles now. Better late than never I suppose.
Rumor has it the us is sending weapons Taiwan paid for to ukraine as well. That can’t possibly be appreciated by the Taiwanese.
New military satellites have been launched by Russia they’re gonna need the Trump Space force i think. I can only imagine what Russia mightve put up there. They did warn the space program is now for military purposes now.
The electrical grid attacks are producing results but there will be diminishing returns. They need to bring down all the transportation nodes next or open another front again to create a crisis.
Likewise ukraine may get results if they occupy some Russian territory too. Putting belograd under siege could precipitate a crisis for Putin.
Zelensky is publicly worrying about Russian activity around the Z npp. They need to get it out of artillery range asap but they’ll need to move into the urban centers or at least besiege them. Its dubious though they can sustain two strong offensives with rear guards though.
Stay tuned.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 30 2022 17:05 utc | 11
Stoltenberg & Blinken re-affirm NATO pledge to bring Ukraine in. [.]
Posted by: migueljose | Nov 30 2022 15:40 utc | 2
And in the previous Ukraine Open Thread
Sounds like Stoltenburger is beginning to have doubts about Ukraine’s viability as a state, or their chances of “winning” for the long term. This is also encouragement to keep fighting to the last man. But it really doesn’t change anything on the ground.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 30 2022 12:33 utc | 219
Hmm. Since the collective West will not recognize those territories now part of RF, the question presents, What part of Ukraine?
FWIW. If proven, we read this bit
Poland Preparing Claims for Western Ukrainian Lands, Russian Intel Chief Says.
“Duda instructed the specialized services to prepare an official justification for Polish claims to western Ukraine in a short time,” Naryshkin said.
The reference point in the ongoing archival research is the Volyn massacre of 1943, which the Polish authorities believe prove the involvement of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists – Ukrainian Insurgent Army in the genocide of the Polish people, [.]
https://sputniknews.com/20221130/poland-preparing-claims-for-western-ukrainian-lands-russian-intel-chief-says-1104886661.html
The NATO FMs will stick to the narrative or risk having to admit defeat.
+ + + + + + + + +
Stoltenburg is a fool.
There won’t be a Ukraine as currently known after this debacle. [.] Ursula von der Leyen has deleted a video message in which she talks about more than 100,000 losses of the Ukrainian military since the beginning of the special operation.
Posted by: Oldengineer | Nov 30 2022 16:11 utc | 5
And in retreat, UVdL’s Spox said it was only “an estimation”
Dmitry Medvedev, RF ex-president, is on it:
RT WordNews:
The self-censorship of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s speech, in which she mentioned Ukrainian casualties, is “humiliating” for the bloc and shows it is nothing but a US puppet, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday.
“It is obvious that ‘Aunt Ursula’ was slapped upside the head by her bosses in Washington,” Medvedev said in a post on VK. “Seemed to hurt, too. It looks extremely humiliating.”[.]
Posted by: Likklemore | Nov 30 2022 17:07 utc | 12
Shoigu: “Over 300,000 reservists, including volunteers, have been trained in two months”
He didn’t say what happens now. Clearly the same 5 soldiers are fighting in Ukr, like 3 months ago. The 300k were as imaginary as Martyanov’s daily stories. But who knows… maybe Santa will bring 5 more to Ukr.
Posted by: rk | Nov 30 2022 17:38 utc | 13
100k killed according to van der Leyen. That means 300k or so extra wounded conservative. That means 400k of the original Army is out of service.
What are the Ukrainians fighting with?
40M population. 20M men. Somewhere a third of that is fighting age. Lets say 7M people. Take 4M because many escaped or are in the Russian part. 400k is 10% of that. It means that in 9 months, one in ten fighting age Ukrainian-leaning men are kinetically hurt by the conflict. If you take an average persons extended family/friends circle, there is at least one KIA/WIA.
These are I think Russian WW2 levels of hurt.
I always took the pro-russian blogosphere account of Ukraine losses as exaggeration. But maybe it is true.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 30 2022 17:47 utc | 14
Repeating just in case:
It is reported that today an explosion happened at 13:00 at the Ukrainian embassy in Madrid, allegedly while a staff member was handling a letter.
Posted by: Arganthonios | Nov 30 2022 17:48 utc | 15
Lol…
Poor little rk.
Sad to be you. I hope it hurts A LOT!
Posted by: Robert Michael Hope | Nov 30 2022 17:57 utc | 16
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washingtons-carthaginian-peace-collides-with-reality/
Quote:
Ukraine is now a war zone subject to the same treatment the U.S. armed forces inflicted on Germany and Japan during the Second World War, on Vietnam in the 1960s, and on Iraq over decades. Power grids, transportation networks, communications infrastructure, fuel production, and ammunition storage sites are being systematically destroyed. Millions of Ukrainians continue to flee the war zone in pursuit of safety, with ominous consequences for Europe’s societies and economies.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration repeatedly commits the unpardonable sin in a democratic society of refusing to tell the American people the truth: contrary to the Western media’s popular “Ukrainian victory” narrative, which blocks any information that contradicts it, Ukraine is not winning and will not win this war. Months of heavy Ukrainian casualties, resulting from an endless series of pointless attacks against Russian defenses in Southern Ukraine, have dangerously weakened Ukrainian forces.
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 17:59 utc | 17
With the Ukrainian rail network partly de-energized, a Russian strategy of attacking on two widely separated fronts would make sense. Moving on Kiev or the western border while continuing to push in the Donbas would create huge deployment difficulties for Ukraine. The newly mobilized forces should enable the Russians to utilize this strategy.
Posted by: HH | Nov 30 2022 18:21 utc | 18
Of course Nato is going to expand now considering how bad Russia have been waging its war, their weakness have emboldened Nato. Russia cannot be surprised with this Nato enlargment, if they are, another stupid misjudgment.
“NATO allies vow to back Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nato-allies-vow-back-moldova-georgia-bosnia-94214895
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 30 2022 18:25 utc | 19
Posted by: Arganthonios | Nov 30 2022 17:48 utc | 15
There is a real danger for the current elites that Ukraine will become a symbol around (and against) which most of their political opponents will unify.
They have stretched the truth, told so many lies and invested so much from our collective livelihoods in this project that it will become known in political textbooks of the future as an example of a disastrous policy failure.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 30 2022 18:26 utc | 20
Indian Punchline’s latest. Excellent as always.
Title: Conflict in Ukraine is doomed to escalate
But there is a lot more in the article than the title suggests.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/conflict-in-ukraine-is-doomed-to-escalate/
“But there is a lot more in the article than the title suggests.” (Scorpion)
Yup. Take this, for example:
“The neocons in the Biden team who are the driving force in the Beltway are still full of passionate intensity.”
Alex, I’d like poetry by Yeats for $1,000.00.
See https://poets.org/poem/second-coming
Posted by: N Hanrahan | Nov 30 2022 18:36 utc | 22
Thanks for the link Scorpion@21, it saved me the trouble of scrollng back to james@6. Great minds think alike.
Bhadrakumar says that the neo-cons in Washington are “full of passionate intensity.’ He is a highly literate man. This is the original, from The Second Coming, first stanza, by W.B. Yeats, 1919:
“Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity….”
Very apposite. Moral: bookmark Indian Punchline.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 18:47 utc | 23
not many slouches at MOA, and hopefully no slouchers.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 30 2022 18:52 utc | 25
Looks like Wikipedia has blocked all mention of Belograd.
Posted by: AntiSpin | Nov 30 2022 18:57 utc | 26
Thanks for the link Scorpion@21, it saved me the trouble of scrollng back to james@6. Great minds think alike.
Ha ha! I usually read through all comments before posting on a thread but this one was so new I just wanted to share that great new article and didn’t check first!
================================
look for “travel or maybe “traffic” – then chose car icon? then zoom in?
Here’s a link to what I watch right now.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 16:04 utc | 4
Thank you Anne B. Never noticed that option before. I’m just seeing different colors on the road if I select an itinerary (Directions). I had imagined watching cars going through customs or something!
oldengineer, Ursula von der Leyen has deleted a video message in which she talks about more than 100,000 losses
won’t matter as it’s already gone viral.
Posted by: annie | Nov 30 2022 19:02 utc | 28
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/22989
If Ukraine does not prevail as an independent sovereign state, then of course, then membership issue is not at the table at all. Because then we have no candidate member anymore in Ukraine :NATO Chief Stoltenberg 🤣
Some profound wisdom from someone who is entirely bought and paid for and who has let down his own country and everyone else.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 30 2022 19:07 utc | 29
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 30 2022 18:25 utc | 19
“NATO allies vow to back Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia”
What a salesman, tickets for the Titanic just like that, no sweat.
Posted by: Paco | Nov 30 2022 19:10 utc | 30
Tragically stupid politicians.
Posted by: Oldengineer | Nov 30 2022 16:11 utc | 5
—
As long as there’s still people who believe that, there will be sheep to fleece and profits to be made.
Yet once more, let me repeat: every functionary knows the score. They know why Russia is the target, they know why zato has expanded. They know the motivation behind maidan, and the steps taken since to use ukraine.
They are not stupid, rather, in western parlance they are “winners”. Each and everyone of them has a high net worth derived from doing the bidding of their masters
They do not represent their nations/people. They are the face of the occupying force.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 30 2022 19:16 utc | 31
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/9487
⚡️🗣 NATO considers the important thing now is to ensure Ukraine’s victory as an INDEPENDENT state, without joining NATO, because otherwise, it will not be in a physical position to join anything at all – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Wasn’t that an essential part of the proposed deal presented to NATO in December 2021, Stoltenberg? Why did more than 100 000 Ukrainians have to die (Ref. VdL) before you realized that? Do you accept any responsibility?
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 30 2022 19:17 utc | 32
alek_a | Nov 30 2022 17:47 utc | 14
It’s hard to get a sense of just how bad it is in Ukraine at this time. I imagine that the lion’s share of the casualties are from villages and rural areas, while the glitterati in the cities have either left or bought their way out of this. The back of the envelope calc sounds about right, and one wonders what the attitude of the rank and file is, giving so many fighters who have disappeared, as the AFU often doesn’t pick up its dead. Lots of wives and parents who don’t know, and no pensions are being paid. It’s not just the loss of young men, but of those with the mental and physical stamina to do this, and recruits have to go through weeks of training in another country. Polish cemeteries filling up with thousands of dead fighters is telling. I suspect it’s incredibly bad in Ukraine, and things are about to break. There’s only so many Polish mercs that will go and so many Ukraine teenagers that can be trained in the UK.
Posted by: Mike R | Nov 30 2022 19:18 utc | 33
I had imagined watching cars going through customs or something!
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 19:00 utc
In some places that is possible (US/Can border crossings), but not sure why it could be expected in a war zone.
“Live traffic” on a map application uses cell phone data to tell where traffic flow slows. Just another little perk of the corporate surveillance state.
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:21 utc | 34
Russian Sanctions over the SMO in Ukraine are spawning a new International Payment System. … More De-Dollarization on the horizon:
https://thesaker.is/the-global-south-births-a-new-game-changing-payment-system/
The system will include a single payment card – in direct competition with Visa and Mastercard – merging the already existing Russian MIR, China’s UnionPay, India’s RuPay, Brazil’s Elo, and others.
That will represent a direct challenge to the western-designed (and enforced) monetary system, head on. And it comes on the heels of BRICS members already transacting their bilateral trade in local currencies, and bypassing the US dollar.
Blowback Time!
Posted by: Mummer | Nov 30 2022 19:25 utc | 35
Queen Ursula’s latest gaffe reminds me of this old chestnut…
https://www.tiktok.com/@laurenbouquet/video/6978638224528919813
Sorry, not the best version, but the only one I could find.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 30 2022 19:30 utc | 36
it will become known in political textbooks of the future as an example of a disastrous policy failure.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 30 2022 18:26 utc | 20
—
Sometimes I wonder if I’ve wandered into a college dorm room discussion. I mean seriously, are you 20?
Policy failure? Were napoleons decisions policy failures? What about hitlers? OK, how about usa in Korea, nam, mena and ukr?
Ahem, ah yes, very unfortunate that, but yes, it pains me to inform you that, indeed, certain errors of judgment were made, that is to say, “mistakes were made”.
Lulz
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 30 2022 19:36 utc | 38
Russia is schooling Nato so bad it is insane. 30% of Ukraines army is standing around in muddy fields around Kherson and are being destroyed as they try to redeploy. They spent 5 months moving supplies and troops into positions that are absolutely useless.
Russia retreats in the North pretends to be upset replaces the General in charge swears not another inch will be given and retreats again. Lol
They used the same setup for the North, even the new guy in charge routine was used. They anounced mobilization and so far it looks like mostly only the locals have been added to the mix.
The Ukies were hiding weapons, fuel, troops and ammunition in Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, now they are out in powerless small destroyed ghost towns and their logistics are spread thin. This war is lost and a crime against humanity
Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 30 2022 19:40 utc | 39
Headline article on this evening’s BBC News Channel in UK:
“And, as winter deepens and Russia continues to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, authorities (in Germany) are hastily preparing more emergency shelters in anticipation of the arrival of what they estimate could be up to 10,000 more people”.
A million Ukrainians have fled to Germany since the start of the war, according to latest figures.
Quel surprise !
Posted by: Engineer-John | Nov 30 2022 19:42 utc | 40
One of the few front line journalists in the SMO Patrick Lancaster reports from the east bank of the Dnieper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kr51sUkqX18
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 30 2022 19:44 utc | 41
And … While Russia is showing the world that it can provide grain and fertilizer to the poorest of countries for free, the idiotic EU is going to shut down 3,000 Dutch farms to ‘alleviate climate change’.
— Global South and Eurasian East = resource and food abundance
— EU and the Atlantic Alliance = deprivation and destruction
For the countries of the world, the future has a very clear choice.
Posted by: Mummer | Nov 30 2022 19:48 utc | 42
I am looking at Intel Slava Z:
https://t.me/s/intelslava?before=42106
The trolleys have electricity but the buildings are dark. This tells me that Russia’s strategy of taking down the electrical system is working. While smaller transformers for local substations can be easily stockpiled and replaced, the big, high voltage transformers can not. Ukraine has reached the limits of it’s ability to repair the major distribution system. I can’t imagine that Ukraine could be insane enough to continue operating nuclear power plants that Russia has not captured when the grid is being destabilized. Ukraine now has minimal electricity to distribute. About the only systems that can remain operational are the local combined heat and power plants and portable back up generators. Since Ukraine has replied primarily on electrified railroads rather than diesel locomotives, their transport network is constrained or failing. Ukraine can no longer support their armies where they are much less redeploy them to respond to new Russian offensives. The next month will be extremely interesting.
My guess is that there will be an invasion from Belorussia to the West of Kiev driving South to tranisteria. Then the mop up operations begin.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Nov 30 2022 19:55 utc | 43
⚡️🗣 NATO considers the important thing now is to ensure Ukraine’s victory as an INDEPENDENT state, without joining NATO, because otherwise, it will not be in a physical position to join anything at all – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Wasn’t that an essential part of the proposed deal presented to NATO in December 2021, Stoltenberg? Why did more than 100 000 Ukrainians have to die (Ref. VdL) before you realized that? Do you accept any responsibility?
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 30 2022 19:17 utc | 32
If you read it right, NATO hopes for a negotiated settlement that will preserve Ukraine as an independent state, with-our-without a legal mandate for said state not to join NATO which they can then break.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 30 2022 19:55 utc | 44
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 19:00 utc | 27
i followed the link to a map of ukraine. then what? I don’t see the point.. ?
I can’t imagine that Ukraine could be insane enough to continue operating nuclear power plants that Russia has not captured when the grid is being destabilized.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Nov 30 2022 19:55 utc | 43
I can. The tyrants in charge might as well chance it since any nuclear disaster can then be blamed on Russia’s bombing.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 30 2022 20:01 utc | 46
With the Ukrainian rail network partly de-energized, a Russian strategy of attacking on two widely separated fronts would make sense. Moving on Kiev or the western border while continuing to push in the Donbas would create huge deployment difficulties for Ukraine. The newly mobilized forces should enable the Russians to utilize this strategy.
That’s the conventional thinking and probably correct. You also don’t want to give NATO more time to recruit mercs and slowly resupply the east of Ukraine.
There’s an alternative view. “Don’t interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. Ukraine is feeding its army into the kill zones. Use the reservists to open up more kill zones for the Ukrainians to feed their army into and speed up the process. Minimizes Russian casualties. They’re all in the rear watching the drone footage and selecting targets to hit.
Posted by: JackG | Nov 30 2022 20:06 utc | 47
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:21 utc | 34
wrote:
“Live traffic” on a map application uses cell phone data to tell where traffic flow slows. Just another little perk of the corporate surveillance state.
I consider them as glitches in the Matrix. There’s an army of nerds out there, eager to spot them.
That’s something they never accounted for, when they gifted us the internet.
Since I met Christ , I don’t mind it so much. I know I’m watched anyway.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 20:07 utc | 48
A question hovers over head while reading Mike Whitney’s new article over at Unz and citing Yves Smith’s article at Naked Capitalism noting that Putin is about to finish this contest and establish a 100 km “dead-zone” between Russia and rump-Ukraine. That question has already been established here at the bar and it was found in the comments section of the same article: are the Zionists getting ready to scoop up land in Ukraine for pennies-on-the-dollar and have a Summer Palace, a bug-out plan-b made from the Ukrainian carcass?
This reality would be cold-water over every happy warm ray of light that has managed to escape out of this blood orgy between Slavs.
…
If, as Putin says, that Russia has not even started to act in earnest yet, what does that mean for the lives of the servicemen who have been so carelessly tossed-aside in this poorly-implemented SMO? It appears to be the equivalent of a man throwing himself out of bed in a panic due to a leg cramp, thrashing about the room until the pain goes away.
Putin may have factored this cost-of-life into the SMO at the outset. I am sure he did. History, it would seem is a vintage Soviet car that has been rusting in a Siberian field, now being jump-started by a Slavic man with a cigarette between his lips and with an old, weathered Babushka, leaning over her garden hoe, looking on. It’s a brutal sight to see, for sure. But it has its beauty and I will continue to hope that great things still spring from small beginnings.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Nov 30 2022 20:10 utc | 49
Meanwhile, the Biden administration repeatedly commits the unpardonable sin in a democratic society of refusing to tell the American people the truth
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 17:59 utc | 17
This is really funny. Did you just come out of cryo missing the last couple hundreds of years?
Posted by: bottle | Nov 30 2022 20:25 utc | 50
Great back and forth with some great stories and an important message: Ritter, Waters, hosted by Randy Credico
Posted by: the pessimist | Nov 30 2022 20:29 utc | 51
The Biden administration refuses to tell the American people the truth: Ukraine is not winning and will not win this war.
Douglas Macgregor, Col. (ret.) is a senior fellow with The American Conservative, the former advisor to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, a decorated combat veteran, and the author of five books.
Russia has also undergone a transformation. In the opening years of President Putin’s term of office, the Russian Armed Forces were organized, trained, and equipped for exclusively national territorial defense. But the conduct of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine has demonstrated the inadequacy of this approach for Russia’s National Security in the 21st century.
The opening phase of the SMO was a limited operation with a narrow purpose and restricted goals. The critical point is that Moscow never intended to do more than persuade Kiev and Washington that Moscow would fight to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, as well as the further mistreatment of Russians in Ukraine. The SMO was, however, based on invalid assumptions and was terminated. As it turned out, the limited nature of the SMO achieved the opposite of the outcome that Moscow desired, conveying the impression of weakness, rather than strength.
After concluding that the underpinning assumptions regarding Washington’s readiness to negotiate and compromise were invalid, Putin directed the STAVKA to develop new operational plans with new goals: first, to crush the Ukrainian enemy; second, to remove any doubt in Washington and European capitols that Russia will establish victory on its own terms; and, third, to create a new territorial status quo commensurate with Russia’s national security needs.
Once the new plan was submitted and approved, President Putin agreed to an economy of force operation to defend Russian territorial gains with minimal forces until the required resources, capabilities, and manpower were assembled for decisive operations. Putin also appointed a new theater commander, General Sergei Surovikin, a senior officer who understands the mission and possesses the mindset to deliver success.
The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities. At this writing, 540,000 Russian combat forces are assembled in Southern Ukraine, Western Russia, and Belarus. The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters, and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened 9 months ago on February 24, 2022.
It is now possible to project that the new Russian armed forces that will evolve from the crucible of war in Ukraine will be designed to execute strategically decisive operations. The resulting Russian force will likely take its inspiration from the force design and operational framework recommended in Colonel General Makhmut Gareev’s work, If War Comes Tomorrow? The Contours of Future Armed Conflict. The new military establishment will consist of much larger forces-in-being that can conduct decisive operations on relatively short notice with minimal reinforcement and preparation.
Put differently, by the time the conflict ends, it appears Washington will have prompted the Russian State to build up its military power, the very opposite of the fatal weakening that Washington intended when it embarked on its course of military confrontation with Moscow.
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 20:50 utc | 52
Ursula Von der Leyen: “More than 100.000 Ukrainian military officers have been killed so far.”
Ursula uncovering the lid of something that should have remained a secret.
Ursula who from 2013 to 2019 was German defense minister who doesn’t know the difference between officers and soldiers. Unless of course she’s right but then the numbers are even worse given that 100.000 Ukrainian officers KIA means that the number of soldiers KIA must be multiplied by 6 or so.
Ursula should have stayed with her old profession. Tending for her 7 children and grand children or gynaecology. The European Union would have been far better off.
Posted by: xor | Nov 30 2022 20:50 utc | 53
@NemesisCalling | Nov 30 2022 20:10 utc | 49
If, as Putin says, that Russia has not even started to act in earnest yet, what does that mean for the lives of the servicemen who have been so carelessly tossed-aside in this poorly-implemented SMO?
The “tossed-aside” dead troopers are not tossed aside. They are considered to be the sacrificial lambs that 1) verify that the conflict is worth it and 2) provide a reason for not quitting now, or they would have died in vain.
This line of thinking has been used quite effectively by the US in all its wars. The dead guys are Christ-like, giving their lives for ‘us.’
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 20:51 utc | 54
Posted by: fnord | Nov 30 2022 15:27 utc | 1
TASS is reporting the following:
Nigeria said that weapons from Ukraine are coming to terrorists in the countries of the Lake Chad
PRETORIA, November 30. /TASS/. The conflict in Ukraine has led to the proliferation of weapons in the countries of the Lake Chad basin that are supplied to terrorist groups operating in the region. This was stated by Nigerian President Muhammadou Buhari at the summit of the leaders of the member states of the Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) held in Abuja, the capital.
“The armed conflict in Ukraine and the situation in the [African region] Sahel serve as the main sources of weapons and militants that join the ranks of terrorists in the Lake Chad area,” the Nigerian newspaper Vanguard quotes Bukhari on Wednesday. “A significant part of the weapons and ammunition purchased for the war in Libya continue to enter the Lake Cha Weapons used in the conflict in Ukraine are equally beginning to seep into the region.”
Posted by: Zet | Nov 30 2022 20:56 utc | 55
@ BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 20:50 utc | 52
it appears Washington will have prompted the Russian State to build up its military power, the very opposite of the fatal weakening that Washington intended
I disagree. Washington is quite happy that Russia has an offensive force. It solidifies the need for the US military — the finest military in the world™ — to run Europe AND it greatly enhances US foreign military sales like the crappy F-35 going to Germany. We can look for a larger Pentagon budget to contest the enhanced Russia threat. It’s a winner for the MIC!
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 21:05 utc | 56
Don Bacon@56
The problem with your argument is that there is no discernible Congressional opposition to massive “Defense” budgets. And none is likely arise unless the threat from Russia becomes actualised in a threat to involve the US in a real war. In other words Congress won’t question military spending unless it looks as if it might lead to casualties, hardship and potential threats to the ‘homeland.’ There seems to be no concern at all with the enormous deficit and the certainty that, in the not too distant future, financial realities are going to threaten the ‘print dollars now, worry about it later’ mentality.
Did you see this article in Covert Action today?
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2022/11/30/why-does-u-s-navy-allow-officers-to-commit-gory-murders-and-other-atrocities-with-impunity/?mc_cid=7b8c0ddbe8&mc_eid=f5d74d7021
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 21:21 utc | 57
. . .from various sources
NATO has ‘its thing’ for Bucharest, Romania. . .also for other places, as long as they are anti-Russia
Today: “Meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Foreign Ministers session, joined by the Foreign Ministers of Finland and Sweden, as well as Foreign Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Moldova”
The meet-up location — Bucharest — is hugely significant given Russia’s war in Ukraine.
It was here in April 2008 that former US President George W. Bush persuaded NATO allies that Ukraine and Georgia would one day join the military alliance.
Apr 3, 2008: “We, the Heads of State and Government of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, met today to enlarge our Alliance and further strengthen our ability to confront the existing and emerging 21st century security threats. We reviewed the significant progress we have made in recent years to transform NATO, agreeing that this is a process that must continue.. . .”
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 21:33 utc | 58
rk | Nov 30 2022 17:38 utc | 13
Nice to see you here Empire troll thing.
I would like to thank you for all the laughs you have provided.
It’s really hard to be positive in the face of the enormous suffering and the pitiful deaths being visited on soldiers wearing UKr uniforms and the deaths of young russian men. All this could have been avoided.
So a big thank you for the lulz, the total absurdity of your brain droppings are a joy to read and provided me with good humor in dark times.
Have a good day troll thing.
Posted by: Klaatu | Nov 30 2022 21:35 utc | 59
Today voltairenet has published a report on increased military oppression of Palestinians by Netanyahu. Israel supports Ukranianian nazism and will implement nazism against the Arabs. Helped by Staussians in the US.
Israelibweapons will be sent to Ukraine.
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 30 2022 21:36 utc | 60
Don Bacon@56
You are spot-on, the military-industrial-congressional blob would love to have some excuse to spend lots of money and chew up young people, if the rona (and over-response via injections) did not reduce the herd size enough then sure, a big war would be great for business. They have no shame. The Squad will be the first to sign up to send money, they want to move up in leadership themselves. I really can’t understand why Europe is playing along with all this destruction, Germany is being de-industrialized, de-skilled, made dependent, Netherlands is going to remove thousands of farms – these counties are apparently run by fat-and-happy piggies who love following orders. All so dumb…
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 21:38 utc | 61
*more than 100 000
The real question is how many more
Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 30 2022 21:44 utc | 62
Shoigu downgraded Ukraine to status of testing ground for new systems. Or perhaps that’s an upgrade from the approach to date?
https://twitter.com/EddyKessels/status/1598062880917958658
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 21:46 utc | 63
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 21:21 utc | 57
I don’t think Don Bacon is *celebrating* the military budget; rather he seems to be rightly criticizing it and the circumstances, but I guess I could be wrong.
In any case, your link reminded me of the first article CAM published about the dirty lowlife Navy SEALs.
https://covertactionmagazine.com/2021/09/06/pathology-of-gop-is-frighteningly-evident-in-its-lionization-of-navy-seal-killer-eddie-gallagher/
The bond between Gallagher and Trump was emblematic of the GOP’s embrace of fascist values as an extension of the culture of military worship which has plagued U.S. society since the end of World War II.
Can’t disagree there.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 30 2022 21:52 utc | 64
@ BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 20:50 utc | 52
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 21:05 utc
This can be looked at that you are both correct.
1) Russia has certainly strengthened its military in surprising ways.
2) The US/ZATO MIC has used this as an excuse to increase Pentagon/war funding and also supplying foreign gov’ts, even other than Ukraine.
Unfortunately for the US/ZATO, their military capabilities have not been increased (the opposite in many ways), and the great sucking of printed debt-$$$ to the MIC has weakened US/ZATO economies and social cohesion. The WEFers still think they will use this to springboard the Great Reset, but I sense the “rest of” the Rothschild class also not liking how long this is taking.
2030 and all those looming carved in stone WEF goals, like no more Internal Combustion personal vehicles being sold and eliminating actual farming are slipping further away. Now the WEF benchmark date seems to be moving to Plan B 2035. The WEFers and the Rothschild class especially didn’t want the masses to see the iron fist inside the Great Reset velvet glove. Those darn Truckers exposing the Trudeau/Freeland/Singh Cabal’s silent coup and Russia taking their sweet time to fight the Ukraine War.
USicans may still think they can take on the world militarily, but the ZATO vassal leaders seem to be having incipient second thoughts. van Der Lyin’ acknowledging the (at least) 100,000 Ukie dead and the swift walk-back show all is not well in EU/ZATO-land. Trudy and Sunak may be the most ardent/vocal US-bootlickers in the elected-class, but they are getting slapped down in public from all angles. You’d have though Xi had punched Trudy in the diaphragm the way he half-staggered towards the exit.
Hence, Russia/China are in no hurry to interrupt the US/ZATO making the biggest mistakes in history. And that’s saying something, looking back at how spectacularly past Empires have fallen.
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 21:54 utc | 65
@bevin
The Russian war on Ukraine has led to significant increases in U.S. defense spending this year, and when/if Russia “wins” it would make them even a greater ‘threat’ along with more significant increases. And of course huge US military budgets don’t require any threat against the ‘homeland.’ The half-million person US Army isn’t required for any homeland defense against whom, Mexico and Canada?
So there’s no “problem with your[my] argument.”
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 21:56 utc | 66
Old canadian @65
You are right, the play is plain to see, yet the masses are not concerned with this, it does not affect them. In UK and many places the utility bills are high and they are affected, but are people marching or do their clueless politicians tuned in or do they even care? This show has been going on for 100+ years and no-one is the wiser…
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 22:04 utc | 67
Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 20:51 utc | 54 “This line of thinking has been used quite effectively by the US in all its wars. The dead guys are Christ-like, giving their lives for ‘us.'”
Depends on Russia’s goals. Destruction of Nazi’s in Ukraine or destruction of Nato. Either way their lives weren’t just tossed away. US bio labs in Ukraine are now shut down and that is what took the most lives. All the leading columns in the first week were heading for biolabs or nuke sites. The main bulk of Azov wiped out in Mariupol and Kadyrov’s five big fish. With the ukroid marines, Azov, and other odds and sods 16-20 thousand in Mariupol alone. 3.5 thousand survived to become POW’s.
A month or so back in the Shoigu interview, he said Russia had lost near 6’000. From what I can make out both Donetsk and Luhansk about the same each but they are. fighting for their homes and families. Casualty rates are exceptionally low compared to WWi, WWII and MAD.
Laws were put in place from the very start to ensure the families of the dead or maimed would be looked after. Widows for life and children till age eighteen.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 22:06 utc | 68
Zanon | Nov 30 2022 18:25 utc | 19
Well well, the day only gets better we are graced not only with the Empire troll thing but we also get a UKr troll thing thrown in forr free.
For barfies who wonder why b keeps this thing around, it’s obviously for a laugh. The things comments are so ridiculously absurd you just cant help laughing…well at least that’s what I get. As funny as bigus dickus or a Norwegian Blue parrot.
Keep up the good work amusing us UKr troll thing. Your good work in keeping up the humor is appreciated.
Have a good day Z thing.
🙂
Posted by: Klaatu | Nov 30 2022 22:09 utc | 69
Deindustrialisation of the EU turns out to be a fantasy according to this analysis;
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/dont-panic-europe-is-not-facing-imminent
The real competition is from China, which will increasingly be locked out of the rich imperial market and sabotaged from within by color revolutions and the liberal oligarch comprador class centred in Beijing.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 30 2022 22:17 utc | 70
@ Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 22:06 utc | 68
giving their lives for ‘us.'” . .Depends on Russia’s goals.
I tend to think that all governments are equivalent in these matters. They have to be, to retain their sanity.
Hey Peter, speaking of sanity, OT, take a gander at this news story on why does Oz have a military force anyhow.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 22:19 utc | 72
Give truth a chance
from Responsible Statecraft
Writing the Ukraine War history, as it happens
Three new books dissent from the orthodoxy, helping to illuminate key aspects of the conflict and the crisis between Russia and the West. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 22:29 utc | 73
From Mike Whitney, following Helmer’s DMZ article, at Unz
“..Rest assured, that Washington will not like this settlement and will never agree to the new borders. But the United States will not have the final say-so in this matter and that is extremely important, because Washington’s role as the “guarantor of global security” is now a thing of the past. Russia is going to decide Ukraine’s borders and that’s just the way it’s going to be. So, yes, we can expect to hear the gnashing of teeth at NATO Headquarters and the UN and at the White House, but to little effect. The matter is settled unless, of course, the US and NATO want to commit ground forces to the conflict which, we think, will precipitate a split in NATO that will inevitably lead to its collapse. Either way, Ukraine’s fate is going to be decided in Moscow not Washington, and that reality is going to have a significant impact of the distribution of global power. There’s a new sheriff in town and he is definitely not an American…”
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/putins-remedy-a-fragmented-toothless-ukraine-separated-by-a-100-kilometer-wide-no-mans-land/
Don Bacon. I’m not going to quarrel. I just see things differently:
1/ If Russia does win and NATO falls apart, as it might very well do, the US is likely to be under pressure, both from Europe and domestically, to close down its bases and go home. No doubt there will be MIC lobbyists calling for more ‘Defense’ spending but they are likely to be discredited by the failure of the trillion or so of wasted money to achieve anything.
2/ In a multipolar world it will be hard to justify the scale of spending the US is currently-in a hegemonic mood- committed to. Furthermore voices at home to change priorities, after eighty years of playing global cop, will be attended to.
The post war policy based on the Vandenberg consensus, contradicts all the traditions of the US from Washington and JQ Adams onwards. Isolationism, looking after business at home, is the default position of US Foreign Policy. I am simply assuming that this policy is likely to be pursued again when the strategy of ruling the world falls apart. As it is going to do.
No doubt the Arms industry and its lobbies-the MIC- will continue to call for more money to be spent on arms. They have used every excuse to do this for decades. It is what they do. But the end of their game is in sight: the results of all the money spent, sacrifices made and lives wasted are going to be totted up when Ukraine implodes and NATO starts looking silly. And the net result will be revealed as being very little besides waste and chaos. And no benefits whatever for the only population in the First World without publicly funded medicare.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 22:35 utc | 74
Shoigu downgraded Ukraine to status of testing ground for new systems.
https://twitter.com/EddyKessels/status/1598062880917958658
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 21:46 utc | 63
That wasn’t my takeaway from the video. Shoigu seems to me to be making the right managerial noises about learning from combat experience and addressing the problems uncovered. In particular, he mentions what I think mil-bloggers have been saying for months: Russia needs more and better reconnaissance (the implication in this video seems to be that means drones) to get the most out of its artillery and missiles. He goes on to specifically mentioned counter-battery capability as an area to improve.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Nov 30 2022 22:44 utc | 75
Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 22:19 utc | 72
Thanks for the link. Fucking dickheads want to gear up for war with China. Our first and only line of defense is diplomacy and independence which has been discarded in anglo saxon fervor.
“Moriarity told the event…” Negative waves https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU
Australia barking at China is as ridiculous as the Baltic poodles barking at Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 22:46 utc | 76
bevin @74
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/putins-remedy-a-fragmented-toothless-ukraine-separated-by-a-100-kilometer-wide-no-mans-land/
That is a good article, thx.
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 22:49 utc | 77
Mike314159 | Nov 30 2022 22:44 utc | 75
I think weapons and tactics for shoot and scoot counter battery work. I suspect loitering munitions/suicide drones with a camera is the way that will go. A counter battery radar can locate firing point of incoming but by the time the counter fire reaches that point, the enemy battery is gone. Guided artillery rounds would only have minimal course correction.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 22:56 utc | 78
Posted by: fnord | Nov 30 2022 15:27 utc | 1
No doubt the Ukrainians are selling weapons, locally at least, but how much is the CIA diverting to other theaters of their hybrid-world war? Nicaragua, for example? Or the Kurds…?
Posted by: Spanky | Nov 30 2022 22:58 utc | 79
“..There’s a new sheriff in town and he is definitely not an American…” Mike Whitney
That’s not a sheriff Mike, its a posse.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 23:06 utc | 80
Not so fast, Moaobserver (70):
True, the EU has bought a lot of liquified natural gas (LNG), but it paid a much higher price for it than for cheap Russian piped gas, as LNG incurs extra costs to condense, transport, and store. And LNG gas storage only works if there is adequate pressure to upload it; without a Russian pipeline, pressurization could be problematic. And the natural gas costs are just one of many critical supplies that EU industries require that have been hit by sanctions. Finally, the EU is losing market share as Russia and Iran and other sanctioned nations are producing good quality homegrown industrial products (e.g., gas turbines) that will in the future outstrip the EU’s. In fact, EU de-industrialization is already well underway, as manufacturing has fallen to COVID levels–with no end in sight.
Posted by: FHTEX | Nov 30 2022 23:09 utc | 81
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 20:50 utc | 52
I think Macgregor is wrong. I think Russia has always had the same plan as it has unfolded. They probably should have done a partial mobilization earlier, but that’s up to the General Staff assessments, which no one, including Macgregor, knows.
The big problem was always the 800 miles of eight-year-constructed fortifications. Russia didn’t want to use strategic air to remove those since 1) there were civilians present, and 2) there was Ukrainian AD present (due to screwing up not taking them out on Day One, as I’ve said before.) And they didn’t want to lose a ton of soldiers doing a frontal assault en mass. So the grinding method was the only way to do it. And that didn’t require the same amount of troops as a grand mobile offensive would have. Plus using fewer troops meant losing fewer immediately and thus preserving the will of the Russian electorate and the support of Russian allies like China.
So the slow way it was. This is now (slowly) coming to an end. Donbass will be cleared once Slaviansk and Kramatorsk are taken, after Bakhmut. Once that is done, there is nothing stopping a grand offensive. The conflict line can be shortened enormously, the Russian forces concentrated and mobile, and the defenses built and manned by Russian conscripts (who can deploy to Russian territory only, which these regions now are) will protect the Donbass and other regions from any Ukrainian offensives. Said Ukrainian offensives will be destroyed by the Russian offensive which can maneuver hither and yon as necessary to destroy concentrations of Ukrainian forces wherever they appear.
It will be like Ali vs Tyson. You can “float like a butterfly and sting like a bee” – which Ukraine will try – but bee stings don’t stop Tyson – or a Russian armored fist.
I was thinking last night that really there is no reason for Russia to bother taking a land corridor to Transnistria or taking Odessa now. The Russians might as well head directly to Kiev. If Ukrainian forces from the Odessa or other regions try to hit their flanks, the Russian fist just alters course and destroys them, then resumes the march to Kiev. Crossing the Dneiper? Russia already did that once. They can easily do it again. 1,000 tanks and 1,000 artillery pieces and air power will stop any Ukrainian attempt to interfere with that crossing. Once on the other side, there is nothing between Russia and Kiev that can stand up to the armored fist, short of NATO sending nukes to Ukraine or using nukes itself.
Once Kiev is taken, however long that takes (if Russia merely surrounds it and lets it starve), Ukrainian forces bypassed will surrender. If not, the fist will destroy them in turn.
Bottom line: You can’t stop an army with 500,000 men, 1,000 tanks, 1,000 artillery pieces, air power, drones, etc. without an army of at least approximating that size with at least approximately the same resources. Ukraine doesn’t have that. NATO doesn’t have that. The US has it but can’t deliver it in time (and the Russians will interdict any attempt to do so.)
It’s over. It’s just a question of time.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 23:26 utc | 82
Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 22:06 utc | 68
……their lives weren’t just tossed away. US bio labs in Ukraine are now shut down and that is what took the most lives. All the leading columns in the first week were heading for biolabs or nuke sites. The main bulk of Azov wiped out in Mariupol and Kadyrov’s five big fish. …
Thanks for continuing to remind of this^^
One of the reasons for the Great Mocking of Russia’s inscrutable strategy in the first few weeks was Evil Empire clouding the biolabs and parlous nuke sites from us, the perennial untermensch.
Knowing the imperative to capture both biolabs and nuke sites, Russia’s risky rush to occupy and secure makes absolute sense.
Even the xkms long Stationary Convoy to Kiev served to mesmerise the US military, who could barely contain their boners, groins straining at the thought of carpet bombing “the fuck” out of it.
The entertainment was so spectacular, few could wrest their eyes to see what the Russians were actually doing. How much incriminating raw material was retrieved from those sites…. Probably only a few of the “need to know” actual knew what exactly was happening in the biolabs and nuke sites.
Thanks for archiving on your vk site. It’d be great if it could be blockchained secured somewhere. We know now how quickly important info disappears into the now ubiquitous memory hole.
[Orwell sure knew the ways of totalitarianism]
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 30 2022 23:30 utc | 83
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 30 2022 22:17 utc | 70
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 30 2022 22:18 utc | 71
If you believed what this article is peddling, I have von der Leyen to betray you.
China is not competing with anybody. If you are good, you beat China. Try to be good at anything. Dutch ASML is good, they don’t worry about China.
This whole post is BS, diversion. Whoever blew up NS1&2, wanted to stop EU cheap gas source. And we all know who did it. Don’t blame China.
If EU countries move industrial capacities to US, it is understandable. But don’t blame China. Blame yourself.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Nov 30 2022 23:31 utc | 84
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 30 2022 21:52 utc | 64
When talking about Navy Seal it’s impossible for me to not think of Kay Griggs – ex.wife of US marine colonel George Griggs.
The story she told seemed crazy at the time – now, not so much.
It’s seven hours long – but I think it’s worth it. Norwegians are in for some special treats in her story.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 23:35 utc | 85
Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 23:26 utc | 82 “The big problem was always the 800 miles of eight-year-constructed fortifications.”
The Ukie hobby specs Maginot Line. You’ve gotta be kidding. Russia was behind it north and south. Hiltler simply went around the original which was strong as fxxk for the day and made current day ukie diggings look like a childs sandpit. Choosing that for the battlefield minimizes civilian casualties and maximizes Ukroid attrition.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 23:36 utc | 86
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 22:35 utc | 74
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 30 2022 22:49 utc | 77
Whitney is wrong IMO. There is absolutely no reason for ANY part of Ukraine to remain under the current regime’s control. It’s just a stupid idea. I’m amazed that virtually everyone on the pro-Russia side, including Sleboda, Martyanov, Ritter (although not lately), Lira, literally everyone, believes this stuff. Only a couple people here have seen through it.
Either Russia deposes the current regime and imposes a new regime which is compliant, if not friendly, to Russia, similar to Yanukovich’s regime, or Russia simply absorbs all of Ukraine into the Russian Federation. The latter would be the most efficient solution, but if Putin is concerned about legal niceties, as he is supposedly wont to do, then the former might be easier provided he can finesse the “referendums”.
It’s bullshit that “Russia doesn’t want western Ukraine” for some stupid “historical reasons” that are utterly irrelevant today compared with modern day Russian security needs, or that “Russia can’t deal with western Ukrainian insurgency” when Russia has already done that once in the ’40s and ’50s, not to mention pacifying Chechnya and Syria.
Of course, it’s possible that Whitney and everyone else is right and I am wrong. If so, then as Ritter said in the CN video, Russia will have lost the war.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 23:37 utc | 87
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 30 2022 22:17 utc | 70
I think the key word is imminent, many has to go bankrupt first. No one think they will just pack their stuff and leave in an orderly fashion.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 23:46 utc | 88
Ukrainian brutality has caused 100,000 dead in Ukraine says Van der Leyen
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 30 2022 23:49 utc | 89
They call themselves Christian Taliban
“NYT Has Found New Neo-Nazi Troops to Lionize in Ukraine-ERIC HOROWITZ”
https://fair.org/home/action-alert-nyt-has-found-new-neo-nazi-troops-to-lionize-in-ukraine/
Richard Steven Hack@87
You could be right, you often are.
But I don’t see the Helmer-Whitney scenario as necessarily a defeat for Russia. In fact if it puts more pressure on NATO by tempting Hungary, Poland and Slovakia for example to share in the spoils, that would be of more benefit to Russia than complete occupation, which would suit the “Putin rebuilding the USSR narrative very well.”
The more strain the Russians can put on the EU-US alliance and the intra NATO relationships the better.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 23:58 utc | 90
@ FHTEX | Nov 30 2022 23:09 utc | 81
True, the EU has bought a lot of liquified natural gas (LNG) . .
Europe ramped up imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022. While the Russian share in Europe’s LNG imports has decreased since the war began, the European Union still imported 11.8 million tons of LNG from Moscow between March and October this year.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 1 2022 0:07 utc | 91
Anne B | Nov 30 2022 23:35 utc | 85
Kay Griggs story = 7 hours.
I’m interested in her story. I do not have, any will never allocate her, 7 hrs. Sorry.
Can you indulge me with 5-7-10 key points? (Esp the ones “seemed crazy/unlikely then, but ?? Now”
If not, I’ll do a quick search-engine-of-choice. My reservation is that’ll likely feed me narrative BS, rather than what you are intimating.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 1 2022 0:15 utc | 93
more on lng, from Financial Times
Europe’s imports of Russian seaborne gas jump to record high
Rise in LNG shipments comes even as flows of the fuel through pipelines have slowed sharply . . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 1 2022 0:16 utc | 94
bevin | Nov 30 2022 23:58 utc | 90
Your best post to date….
[nah, m8. Just jesting]
Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 1 2022 0:17 utc | 95
“absorb all of Ukraine into the Russian federation” Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022| 23:37 utc | 87 That’s a stupid idea especially in light of the union state with Belarus. Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that discussions about the independence of the country (being part of Russia) is out of the question, all people who call for russia to absorb Ukraine also call to absorb Belarus. Given the interest that Putin has personally shown over the past decade for a union state with Kazakhstan (and to lesser extent Kyrgyzstan), would be more prudent to give a share of Ukraine to Belarus ( which has expressed interest in the 3 northern oblasts). If UKraine is really to “disappear”, would be better to leave the least Russian oblasts to Belarus and jointly administrate those areas.
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 1 2022 0:20 utc | 96
Theres talk on some channels that the kiev clown will be bumped off soon. Lets hope so. Im sure everyone in russia and the west will be relieved with this.
Nothing will progress while this clown is in charge. Everyone in Europe knows this.
Posted by: Dirty Berty | Dec 1 2022 0:25 utc | 97
The MacGregor and Whitney (Helmer) pieces have provided excellent food for thought and post-prandial discussions but I think both focus a little too much on the Ukraine theater per se. Ukraine is a geopolitical lever whose broader economic and political effects will be felt in two major zones:
1. RoW
2. USA and West
1. The effects will make it increasingly clear to RoW that the West has lost its way and is increasingly a paper tiger (albeit with nukes!). A significant defeat in Ukraine will shift perceived geopolitical reality on their part. That perceptual shift will constitute a major victory.
2. The same thing will happen in the US and West though it will take more time. First they may only acknowledge it because others are treating them differently but gradually, as their change in status along with severe domestic challenges sink in, the public will rise to demand a fundamentally reformed polity. This also will constitute a major victory.
Of course it may not play out all that straightforwardly but these are the two major thrusts in play which of course are actually one in essence: the passing of the world order dominated by the West since 1945 as a result of concentrating the enormous productivity and wealth unleashed by the industrial revolution, which took about a century to spread world wide, into corrupt credit cartels and their minion corporations.
Ukraine is going to prove the Mother of all Wakeup Calls and although there may be more twists and turns on the tactical level that broader context I believe has been front and center in all of the Russia-China axis moves the past few years. As long as Eurasia keeps rising, the ability of the hegemon to dominate, obstruct or contain them will keep declining, a process already well underway. The more the hegemon resists by trying to impose its will in all its tiresome ways, the more the RoW will unite against it. Indeed because of this dynamic, the West has already lost the ability to prevent that rise – though they still refuse to understand it – which is why Putin always describes the emerging multipolar reality as inevitable.
Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 23:35 utc | 85
That’s completely new to me. I’ll check it out. Kind of reminded me of this https://rense.com/general95/swartz.html
Yeah it’s Rense so you have to take some of it with a grain of salt, but it’s interesting how all this stuff seems to tie together.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 1 2022 0:50 utc | 99
Posted by: Phariah | Dec 1 2022 0:20 utc | 96
Why can’t Russia merely place a new regime in Kiev and then have it join the Union State? Fine, Ukraine retains “independence”, like Belarus does, except that Ukraine won’t have a mouth like Lukashenko running it. Based on my reading of Wikipedia’s description of this “union state”, basically Belarus is subservient to Russia while maintaining the appearance of “independence”. It’s a convenient fiction to keep Lukashenko happy and away from the West. Lukashenko thought he had a chance to become President of Russia, but Putin beat him to it, so now he’s settled for being “independent”.
Again, it would be easier to just absorb all of Ukraine into the Russian Federation and call it Russia from then on. Lukashenko is in no position to do anything about it. Giving some oblasts to Belarus might make that process easier, but it doesn’t change the outcome much.
The point of all this is to enable Russia to put strategic weapons into what is now Ukraine, just as Russia will do with Belarus. How it is done and what Ukraine is called or a part of is essentially irrelevant. The primary purpose of the Ukraine conflict is to remove Ukraine from ever being a NATO threat to Russia AND counter NATO in Poland and Romania as part of the “military-technical measures” Russia promised the West if the West ignored its December, 2021, treaty initiatives.
Russia to send Belarus nuclear-capable missiles within months
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/25/russia-to-send-belarus-nuclear-capable-missiles-within-months
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Dec 1 2022 0:53 utc | 100