Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 29, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-211

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Posted by b on November 29, 2022 at 19:23 UTC | Permalink

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Wait a minute. Did Von der Leyen basically used Russian figures about Ukrainian losses? Because that's pretty much the level of UA military losses that Russian MoD assesses. Does she consider them trustworthy, or does she assume Russia is lying and is basically trying to portray Russia as a major threat and so bloodthirsty it needs to be economically punished even more? Honestly, considering her low IQ, I'd go for the latter, she actually thinking she's lying to push her sanctions, but since she publicly used such figures, they'll be widely reported in Western MSM from now on.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Nov 30 2022 11:23 utc | 201

Had the so-called 'pro-Russians' in Odessa and Kharkov actually risen up in mass in 2014 they could have swept the maidanek putschists out of Kiev, restored Yanukovich, and legally called for Russian intervention to stamp out the nazis in the west.

This is a big difference between Syria and Ukraine. The majority of Syrians supported the government and the legitimacy of its institutions (regardless what they thought about al-Assad). The majority of Ukrainians... did not! And Mr. Putin was never going to second-guess this choice... he is an almost autistic adherent of international law.

Posted by: Browser | Nov 30 2022 11:29 utc | 202

PS
Russia will do it on the cheap and will get by ok, but they will seriously bleed America dry in Ukraine especially if the US keeps fighting over it .... Ukraine will be a permanent welfare state wholly dependent on US $upport for an indeterminable period (EU will not help much) ... no one in Europe will be welcoming permanent Ukrainian immigrants either - that door will be slammed shut.

So the western Ukrainians are totally fucked now and the in the east only marginally better off but more secure and able to travel and relocate in time.

Europe will not be getting any help from Russia with oil gas or anything else as time goes by, unless or until they make a political break with the USA, which they won't they are too gutless and dependent.

Anyway, I'm satisfied I have now learnt what I wanted to learn about Russia/Ukraine invasion and the near term. Nothing is certain but the shit fight will remain a shit fight for a very long time. And not to worry about it or what might happen anymore.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 11:29 utc | 203

SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 10:37 utc | 187

MH17. Something we very much agree on. The Americans have the data on the trajectory. They would have seen the launch flare and tracked the rocket engine burn. They would know the exact launch coords and chemical analysis of the soil in the blast crater would confirm it. Kerry stated they had tracked the trajectory but no data was given to the bellingcrap kangaroo court investigation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 11:30 utc | 204

Bottom line - no one is going to win this war in Ukraine - it has passed a point of no return and no end.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 11:12 utc | 197

The laws of physics dictate that there will be a Ukrainian collapse at some point.

Cannon fodder isn't an infinite resource, and much less so in post-demographic collapse societies such as Ukraine. This isn't the WWII USSR or Vietnam of the 1960s with 6-8 children per woman.

You can't be fighting at 5:1 (at minimum, might well be 10:1 or more) casualty disadvantage against someone who has 5x your population, plus a huge industrial power advantage, and expect to prevail in the long term.

Still, Russia would have done well to not pull out needlessly of so many areas and to have gone harder for others, even if for no other reason but to deny that mobilization resource.

But eventually there will be a collapse.

Problem is that when that moment comes, NATO will have to either enter directly and openly or raise the white flag, and it is then that the situation will become really dangerous.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 30 2022 11:33 utc | 205


Margo: they were all Americanised, their culture was lost to Pop culture, instant gratification.
Posted by: Heather | Nov 30 2022 5:00 utc | 113

Was that really possible?
Are they aware of that?
How has pop culture penetrated also the ranks of European elites?

I have an idea that around 2000. they were still able to distinguish, to think.
Now, not any more.

Posted by: margo | Nov 30 2022 11:37 utc | 206

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Nov 30 2022 11:23 utc | 200

The fact that NO MSM reported Leyen's speech, or the numbers she referred, probably means that the speech was not mentioned for public consumption in the West, but either as a message to Zelensky about danger on ability to continue supporting Ukraine, or more likely, meant as encouragement to keep Ukrainians fighting to the last for "EU Values".

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 30 2022 11:39 utc | 207

@Melaleuca | Nov 30 2022 7:36 utc | 147

“Ukrainian refugees have caused a record increase in the incidence of HIV in Poland. It is reported by Wirtualna Polska.
“In October, 1910 new cases of HIV infection were detected. There have never been such alarming statistics in the country,” the newspaper writes.”

LOL…possibly the best Ukrainian weapon.

Posted by: harryash | Nov 30 2022 11:47 utc | 208

Interesting conversation here thanks guys.
Thanks Peter AU1 always worth reading an old tropper like myself.
..........
If i may chip in.
For the last 8 months Vladimir Putin has been carefull to maintain the morale high ground in reality he needs to preserve that, so as to counter the onslaught of massive lies.
If he had gone in hard and fast he would fall for the trap of apearing
to be the bad aggressor.
Not doing so has wrong footed the western alliance.

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 30 2022 11:54 utc | 209

What Ukraine military actions have accomplished so far:

TASS now: "For the first time in the history of aerial patrolling, Russian aircraft landed at an airfield in the People’s Republic of China and Chinese planes landed at an airfield on the territory of the Russian Federation," the [Russian Defense]ministry said in a statement."

China is now actively seeing and materially interpreting the writing on the wall.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 30 2022 12:01 utc | 210

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 10:42 utc | 189

Basically you're suggesting they resort to straight-up guerrilla tactics. Won't work against a massed Russian offensive. Guerilla attacks only work against small units - not an entire battalion or larger, and usually not even against a company, especially if they can call on a battalion for backup, and especially not with drones in the air. Basically in modern war if you assemble a group of twenty or fifty or more in one place, the enemy can see you - and as Martyanov says, "If we see you, we can kill you." Groups less than that can't inflict significant casualties on a much larger force without being wiped out. They can ambush forward elements, like the Ukrainians did early in the war when the Russians were pushing hard and some outrun their support elements. But in a major offensive that won't work.

Also, I watched a Youtube video from an ex-military guy who is into "militia stuff" and he pointed out that any insurgents sneaking around in the dark that is opposed by a modern military with night vision gear and drones with thermal IR are dead meat. The Afghans didn't do too bad, but they have mountains to work in. The Ukrainians don't except in the far western portion.

It also presumes that these Ukrainian conscripts know how to do guerrilla war. Of course, they could be instructed and led by the NATO forces which are now doing much of the fighting anyway. But it's still mostly a non-starter for the reasons I cite above.

This is one reason I don't think the Russians will expend "hundreds of thousands" of troops, as Sleboda says, to "pacify" Ukraine after the Ukrainian army is defeated. You don't need to "pacify" the country by putting a platoon in every neighborhood and post guards on every street corner, like the US did after WWII in Germany or in Iraq. All you need to do is put a strong enough presence at a few critical points and be able to move a strong presence, such as by air mobile troops, to any trouble spot while keeping the bulk of your forces intact and thereby secure in the capital. Not to mention that Ukrainians aren't Iraqis or Afghans, i.e., a tribal society whose children are born with AK-47s in their cribs. Add to that the SVR and FSB will flood into Ukraine after the Ukrainian army is defeated and find and deport the influential and dangerous elements of Ukrainian society. So there won't be a significant number of Ukrainians willing and able to start an effective insurgency. Also, as Scott Ritter pointed out in the CN video, the Russians now have good counter-insurgency capability, hard won in Chechnya and Syria.

So I don't think the war will be dragged out by any of those scenarios.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:05 utc | 211

There is much potentially fake news going around about the Russians having looted some museums in Kherson. All the evidence we have of this is pictures from before the war and pictures taken at some point afterwards. Did the Russians loot these items? Did the Ukrainians? The pictures came out quite a while after the Ukrainians retook the city...

Were a lot of these things put into protective storage by the Ukrainians or Russians rather than looted? Who knows but the useful idiots on Twitter believe every word they're told. The only evidence of abject looting is a case that held WW2 medals that was smashed open who knows when by who knows whom.

https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1594699368854335493

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1594069127009812486

https://twitter.com/ukraine_ua/status/1594275702290907137

Posted by: Altai | Nov 30 2022 12:07 utc | 212

Posted by: harryash | Nov 30 2022 10:43 utc | 190

Can you please tell us how you know Mossad runs Schipol Airport?

The plane may have been transporting illegal weapons that Nato or someone didn’t want known. So accident or by intent it fell. A bit like how the Estonia Ferry disaster was said to be really due to it transporting atomic ?weapons and by accident, or intent someone deep -sixed it. Someone mentioned it here on MOA , and it seemed plausible.

Similarly , the Turks were transporting illegal arms to Libya a few years ago and nearly blew its Nato allies out of the water; when the Italian admiral asked the Greeks to stand down and with tail between their legs the EU UN Maritime Force steamed home. Lol , macron was furious, but hey ,the US like their Turkish Girlfriend more than their French ,Greek and Italian whores so all is well that ends well, right? That fiasco had its UN report sealed forevermore for “National interests”, only to be bettered by the sealing of the NS1and 2 sabotage report this year.

It is fatal being a US friend right? Touche …you Man -raping Old Vampyre,, Kissingerl

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 12:08 utc | 213

unimperator | Nov 30 2022 11:39 utc | 206

It seems the video was later edited and the 100k section removed. Ursula made a boo-boo

Posted by: rk | Nov 30 2022 12:11 utc | 214

@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:05 utc | 210


So I don't think the war will be dragged out by any of those scenarios.

I could see some Chino-Russian pact on Ukraine.

We need you in Pacific, sez China, we might need you in Ukraine sez Russia.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 30 2022 12:20 utc | 215

MH17, characterized by to total lack of eyewitness (let alone photographic) recollection of the trail of anti-aircraft missile launch. On a clear day with miles of visibility in a geography uninterrupted flat horizon. Those that noticed the crash only did so after the plane came down. Buk, I believe, is total BS. Also the plane and the missile would have landed on the ground very far apart given the different trajectory. Shrapnel in plane would have had to come down with the plane or be mixed in to the debris after the fact. Serial numbers of the missile? No chance it would be found. So where is the autopsy result of the pilot?

Posted by: YY | Nov 30 2022 12:29 utc | 216

Saying, or rather Parroting, Russia like China are Civilizational Nations is to say nothing at all.
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 3:19 utc | 82

No, it says a lot. It's like beauty and harmony: you know it when you see it.

The reason most people in the West have trouble with the idea of the Civilizational State is that the West is broken. Just like there are broken homes, there are also broken civilizations. For instance, by 400AD, Rome was broken - at least the Western part.

One of the key aspects of broken people and societies, like the West, is that they refuse to admit they are broken.

Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Nov 30 2022 12:30 utc | 217

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 11:12 utc | 197
"then they will dig in hard into defensive positions .... along some kind of line nth to sth from belarus/russia down to crimea/kherosn (and if possible potentially Odessa connecting with Transnistria ....)"

Why go on the defensive when you have overwhelming force? Once Donbass is cleared, Ukraine has virtually nothing left except a couple hundred thousand conscripts and some tens of thousands of "ex" (not)-NATO "mercenaries." Russia has a minimum of 500,000 and can easily raise another 500,000 if they think they need to (which I doubt). For once in this war, Russia will outnumber the Ukrainian army and continue to out-gun them regardless of what little the West can continue to supply.

"expecting and ready for an major escalation by US/NATO eg fighter bombers and missile attacks needing sustained AD capacity until the US quits runs out of missiles and planes."

Doubtful. All the NATO war games - and there have been quite a few - show a conflict between NATO and Russia always ends up in one of two ways: 1) Russia wins; or 2) nuclear WWIII. While the neocons don't comprehend this, the Pentagon does. The consensus of the military experts on the pro-Russia side have repeatedly pointed out that NATO doesn't have the capability required to push Russia out of Ukraine, let alone attack Russia itself. And Russia will not allow that level of force to be built up on its borders, like Saddam Hussain allowed the US to do in 1991 and 2003.

"Leaving the status quo as Russia cannot defeat Ukraine completely nor US/NATO but the US/NATO can defeat Russia in Ukraine"

Not according to the war games and every sober assessment of the military balance. Aside from stupid mistakes, it's physically impossible for Russia not to defeat Ukraine's military in its entirety. That's simply the military balance.

"Bottom line - no one is going to win this war in Ukraine - it has passed a point of no return and no end."

Unless Russia makes some really stupid mistakes, I see this war being over by this time next year, if not sooner. And the US and NATO will sooner abandon Ukraine than risk WWIII - that's US history: when the going gets tough, the US is out of there. And the European part of NATO is simply toothless - without the US, it's a weak alliance. Britain's army fits inside Wembley Stadium. Germany barely has a couple tank brigades. The rest are equally weak and rapidly fracturing under the economic pressure. Only Turkey has a serious military and they're not going to attack Russia.

But of course, predictions are useless. What will be will be. But the probabilities are all we can go on - and they show Ukraine being defeated soundly. It's just a question of how long it will take - and Russia's new mobilization indicates it's tired of waiting.

Still, perhaps Putin is dumber than I am and will still "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory." As I said before, if he does, Russia deserves what it gets.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:31 utc | 218

Before cut and after cut of the video of the Nazi granddaughters speech playing side by side.
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1597913370023579648?cxt=HHwWgMDSoc7v9qwsAAAA

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 12:33 utc | 219

"if Ukraine does not prevail as independent sovereign state,than membership issues is not at the table at all" Jens Stoltenberg

https://t.me/azmilitary11/29759

Sounds like Stoltenburger is beginning to have doubts about Ukraine's viability as a state, or their chances of "winning" for the long term. This is also encouragement to keep fighting to the last man. But it really doesn't change anything on the ground.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 30 2022 12:33 utc | 220

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 30 2022 12:20 utc | 214

Doubtful. Russia doesn't need anything from China but the moral support, which it already has - and maybe some computer chips. Depending on how the US-China conflict over Taiwan goes, though, I can see Russia helping China somewhat in that conflict if it starts. But Russia can handle Ukraine and NATO - including the US - on its own.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:35 utc | 221

@Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 12:08 utc | 212
“Can you please tell us how you know Mossad runs Schipol Airport?”

Direct proof of any intelligence agency operating anywhere…..is…as I am certain you are aware
By definition is subject to distortion and dilution and outright ridicule….by TPTB.

That’s why the words…”conspiracy theorist” were chosen to undermine factual opposition.
I lived for a while at the bottom of the runaway…(outside the perimeter fence obviously)…with KLM pilots….imagine the dinner conversations.

In my computer somewhere…I have many references to the accepted fact that El Al operates heavily from there for a reason.

Sadly Brother Ma I cannot immediately locate the “evidence” you wish for…..

But you can be sure in my future considerations, should I discover something relevant to your fair question
I will post it.

Posted by: harryash | Nov 30 2022 12:41 utc | 222

So this has just been uploaded to utoob 10hrs ago.
A UK international legion volunteer talks about his 7/8 months fighting with Ukraine military….
He’s back in UK wearing a very new clean uniform.
I don’t know the channel…. And …. Utoob is capricious with its censorship…so. Watch or download while it’s up…. Not that he says anything much outside the official narrative…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbD4WBqPg4
He claims to have known “tas”… the Australian international legion volunteer from Tasmania who was killed some months ago….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 30 2022 12:43 utc | 223

Did any fixed or rotary wing aircraft of 404 show up in the clobber list of the MOD RU or are they "evacuated" from the airforce altogether?

Posted by: Goingo | Nov 30 2022 12:45 utc | 224

@Anthony | Nov 30 2022 9:03 utc | 171

I find it very hard to understand: why do these soldiers agree to sit in a muddy trench waiting for the next bomb? Why do they keep going on suicide missions against overwhelming Russian artillery?

If they move to retreat or to surrender, they will be killed by one of the Neo-nazi punishment squads which are positioned behind the front line.

Posted by: cirsium | Nov 30 2022 12:49 utc | 225

@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:35 utc | 220

I agree, but there is always – but.

Chinese Army has no combat experience, and the best and possibly the safest place to gain some of it might be in Ukraine.

Maybe not at the moment as a huge combat is going on, but after some reduction of AFU I expect to see some Chinese military on the ground there. As in an expeditionary force, or a RF unit's back-up, as they progress through the future liberated territories.

Even as it sounds strange, it might be a real boon for China to get the taste of the things.
Both are fighting the same opponent, don't they?

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 30 2022 12:52 utc | 226

@31 "Ukraine had 250 S-300's and 72 Buks. It should have been easy to take every one of them out on day one"

Here is an S-300
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#/media/File:S-300_-_2009_Moscow_Victory_Day_Parade_(2).jpg

Here is a BUK:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#/media/File:9K37_Buk_of_the_Ukrainian_military,_Independence_Day_parade_in_Kiev.JPG

Notice that both are in motion, because they are carried on (and launched from) TELs, which means that their position can change in a matter of minutes.

", their positions identified by Russian ISR before the war."

Doesn't matter if their position was identified *before* the Russians launched this SMO, that is no guarantee that they are still there when the order was given to launch the operation.

Both are mounted on TELs, and are fired from those vehicles, which means that they can change their position in a matter of minutes.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 30 2022 12:59 utc | 227

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 11:30 utc | 203

There is no certainty that MH17 was downed by an AA Missile, less so by a BUK-M1 sent from rebel held zone in SNIZHNE.

Wreckage shows numerous bullets and shells impacts on the forward parts including pilot seat.
Even kangaroo court in The Hague wasn't able to show more than two supposed butterfly preformed shrapnells, which isn't matching the pattern of 2800 fragments being normally spawned in a Buk-M1 warhead close explosion.

One CANNOT FIRE at a target out of detection range:

MH17 Debris in Danylove - 34 km from SNIZHNE - are proving no lone BUK-M1 from Shnizhne could have hit MH17 since without the Radar Station the lone launcher had no means to detect the incoming airliner at such a distance.
Lone BuK-M1 launcher range of detection is about 20 KM WITHOUT the independant Radar station.
REPEAT: "One CANNOT FIRE at a target out of detection range".

It is a proven fact that MH 17 was downed by SOMETHING ELSE than a BUK-M1 from Rebel held zone in SNIZHNE.

Most likely, gunned down, on purpose, by an Ukrainian Jet either SU-25 or Su-27.

Alternately an Ukrainian BUK-M1 with radar station - which would have been able to identify the plane as a civilian one and down it nonetheless - or some, very unlikely, blunder from Ukrainian lone happy trigger Buk launcher in Dniepropetrovsk oblast firing to some unidentified 33,000 foot high air target when all planes flying could only have been Ukrainians or civilians ...

Your choice.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 30 2022 13:06 utc | 228

@ Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 10:42 utc | 189

Just thinking out loud. What if the Ukrainians don’t bunch up or concentrate in any way as they choose to only stall for time?

By committing to the entire contact line & refusing to give any ground at all, ever, having lost long ago any serious capacity for maneuver ops, the ever diminishing AFU Volksturm, plus mercs & covert NATO troops are spread thin in their entrenchments & unable to support anything other than their adjacent flanking units. If they withdraw to redeploy they breach the line.

Seek to defend everything, you ultimately defend nothing.

Oops. Even if they don't launch suicidal assaults they clock up KIA/WIA every single day. 'Cause they are shelled, mortared & even individual soldiers targeted by grenade dispersing RC drones, even just sheltering in their trenches. Move out onto the open WWI No-Mans Land hellscape, receipt concentrated registered fires & die in large numbers.

The Russian airforce won’t do much as they are afraid of AD and Shoulder - mounted stingers.

RuAF currently have freedom of action all along the FEBA, significantly contributing to total AFU casualties, major combat multiplier. Yet beyond that, yes, until or IF, the RF launches major offensive maneuver ops withe mobilized equivalent of up to 30 fresh Divisions(300k mobilized reservists, served in past five years). This Dec-Jan, post Raputista next year, or Dec-Jan '23-24, only RF knows. Then RuAF will almost certainly be unleashed.

The artillery can’t do much as they only work when soldiers are bunched up or tanks etc are concentrated.

See above. Have seen drone footage of RF hunting down exposed or entrenched individual AFU soldiers one arty shell at a time.

If the Ukros decide to just manoeuvre around and shoot at Russian concentration and artillery, and are fed, armed and nursed by the Nato / EU for the foreseeable future , then they can keep Russia on tenterhooks and run- ragged for ever.

See above re maneuver capacity/capability. Yes AFU fires direct/indirect arms at RF, yet they receive 3-4+ shells/rockets in return for each one fired, & part of that response is further destruction of AFU tubes & launchers by RF counter-battery fire. RF manufactures replacement materiel, apart from decades & decades of reserve war stocks ... AFU is entirely dependent on foreign 'donations' for rations, potable water all ammunition, medical supplies, uniforms, boots, comms, et al ...

You can’t keep those 300k recalled recently- serving reserves , the population or industry on a war -footing forever without big offensives. People get restless and idle hands do the Devil’s work- leading to protests and /or coups.

No, do not see it. RF can, just as they've kept ~800,000 regular troops on alert & garrison duties since Feb2422. Another third, 300,000 is not an impediment. Only <1% of primary active reserves were called up. RF is NOT on a war economy footing, the economy & civil society is largely directly unaffected. Though RF has clearly initiated a restricted war materiel State directed & controlled sub-economy to support now ~1.3M+(Formally integrated DNR/LPR, etc) under arms, & prepped to rapidly expand such armaments production should circumstances demand.

About the only thing that will stop this is a full Russian assault with” big arrows” on frozen soil or in the Summer, yet it appears this will not happen either this Winter or next Summer. To my mind, Russia has put more emphasis on the economic plane of the war and it seems the EU and Ukro can hold out for a year or two more.

First point possibly, or never, yet the Strategic dominance & initiative is solely RF's. AFU is a spent force. Unknown negotiated settlement or conflict 'freeze' is also possible. IF, re timings, see above. The real conflict is geostrategic, AFU/Ukraine is IMV merely the Steel-Bear-Trap that holds Empire in place, while the wider conflict & repercussions play out. Ukraine conflict is a subsidiary issue. And the longer this goes on, the weaker & more fractured/disunited Empire becomes along with diminishing military/industrial/economic capacity, as well as ever diminishing soft & coercive influence/power over non-belligerent States.

Having said that , I am aware that routs don’t always happen continuously or linearly , and defeats can happen overnight when the proverbial camel -who seems to be able to bear everything -breaks its back with that one extra piece of straw.

The AFU is facing imminent collapse, even at the current pace of the Sitzkrieg. The danger is what will Empire, ie US & its puppy vassals do when, not if that occurs. IMV US/NATO does not have the military capacity or near term capability of winning, or even sustaining combat more than briefly(weeks/more than a month or two tops) in a high-intensity conventional conflict re RF, when all the Dogs of War are released by RF. RF has primed & tuned it's national mobilization ability, and can draw forth another ~4,700,000 active reserves over 4-12 weeks on a rolling basis, skip refresher training & throw them directly into the line against a US/NATO force. And if it goes full Total War truly has 20,000,000 2nd rate, inactive reservists (under 60) it can throw into the line.

Quantity has a quality all of its own.

US/NATO even with instantaneous forced unprepared conscription can not arm, equip or support any significant percentage of the above ...

So does Empire stand down in such a scenario or resort to an attempted nuclear first strike ?

IMHO, Empire will bitterly concede & US eventually return to it's mainland status circa 1890. Why ? Every single time Empire has been directly challenged by a capable peer they have taken their licks & backed down ... hoping to recover through covert ops/scheming, etc another day.

Korean War, sole Nuclear superpower. Stood down, battlefield ceasefire, no response to humiliating defeat.

China Hainan Is incident. Utterly humiliated. Zero response.

RQ4A drone shootout, non-engagement of 'in-shadow' RC-135 by Iran. No response.

2020 MRBMs multiple pinpoint missile barrages over an hours duration against US Mil bases in Iraq. No response.

RF pre-emptive Mil Op re Ukraine/AFU ? Effectively, no meaningful response. Yup.

Hope it makes sense, haven't slept for over 40 hrs ...

YMMV

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 13:10 utc | 229

Took Shoigu 9 months to understand he must use powerful weapons in this war...

Russian Defense Chief Calls for ‘Next-Gen’ Weapons Use in Ukraine

He listed high-precision long-range weapons, drones and counter-battery warfare systems as key factors for “effectively defeating the enemy.”
“Missile forces and artillery play a significant role in this,” Shoigu said.

https://newstvglobal.com/russian-defense-chief-calls-for-next-gen-weapons-use-in-ukraine/

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 30 2022 13:15 utc | 230

Von leyden Said 100000 military officers.

Not soldiers

Posted by: Ct | Nov 30 2022 13:18 utc | 231

@ Paul Greenwood 173

Sunak pumped up the UK property prices by calibrating economic assistance for covid.
Nothing for NHS etc, a lot of support for employers to retain staff. 80% of overpaid executive salaries. Rents doubled.

But when faced with a real problem, climate change, for which there are no capitalist benefits, only sacrifices, or greenwash ponzi schemes, he stuck two fingers up to the world.

My point is that with Russia fighting an economic war against Western ponzi capitalism, I don't see the South Asian Sunaks taking an ideological stand with China against the Empire ponzi schemes.

Look after no.1 is the sum total of their ideological capacity, which is volatile, and Russia needs sreadfast friends.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 30 2022 13:22 utc | 232

@ Ct 230

Von lie-den , BoJo's friend?

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 30 2022 13:26 utc | 233

But they are both Barbie blonde and therefore believable. It is impossible to be both blonde and lie to.people.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 30 2022 13:29 utc | 234

Clueless Joe | Nov 30 2022 11:23 utc | 200
The answer is obvious….and the one offered by twitz to even the slightest suggestion Ukraine is not supreme and easily defeating Russia….
Ursula is a Putin Puppet. A Kremlin troll. An ork.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 30 2022 13:32 utc | 235

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 30 2022 9:32 utc | 176

There's that, besides fact established by UA martial law: A soldier who abandons the unit may be summarily executed.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 30 2022 13:34 utc | 236

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 13:10 utc | 228

Sounds good , and thanks. My only point to add was to say that we were lucky that Truman was in power -and sacked Macarthur -‘ cause the latter was quite happy to use nukes in Korea on the Chinese and Korean Communists.

Let’s hope we don’t ever have a nukeloving or naive POTUS and /or ideological fools- like the Neocons - in power at the same time.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 30 2022 12:52 utc | 225

I agree wholeheartedly with you. On other sites and even maybe here, I have mentioned that the Chinese should at the very least have been in Syria, if only to kill the Chinese Turkestanis (jihadi Uighers ).That would have given them real-life combat experience . As far as I can tell , the bulk of Chinese troops have not been blooded since they chased Vietnam out of Cambodia in 1979. It would also have given them more confidence in taking on Taiwan if needs be.

Posted by: harryash | Nov 30 2022 12:41 utc | 221

That is good enough for me. That is what I call real evidence, “testimony” , and it now simply comes down to whether to believe you or not ie whether you really did converse with those pilots and did not just make up that story. I am happy to say that I believe you.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 13:36 utc | 237

Explosion at the Ukrainian embassy in Spain, in Madrid at 13:00

For now the official version seems to be that it happened while one of the embassy staff was "manipulating a letter"

😬

Posted by: Arganthonios | Nov 30 2022 13:39 utc | 238

I wish they would come up with better constructed false flags and narratives. These stories that insult one's intelligence or assault common sense are really just plain annoying. I can not not see a BUK system being a favorite weapon for the rebels to shoot down a plane flying 10,000 feet above, clearly beyond any hostile height in the sky, even if misidentified as military. The net end result being Bellingcat finding permanent lucrative income source/s, and the Dutch justice system showing itself to be feckless beyond reason. What will they come up with next? Box cutters as WMD?

Posted by: YY | Nov 30 2022 13:46 utc | 239

MH17, characterized by to total lack of eyewitness

Posted by: YY | Nov 30 2022 12:29 utc

I agree with the rest of your post, BUT, there was a Russian BBC-affiliate camera crew on the ground within hours.

"On July 23, two days after the Russian Ministry of Defense presented a radar track of a Ukrainian SU-25 fighter climbing to within three kilometers of MH17, the BBC’s Russian service aired a report by correspondent Olga Ivshina.

The report originated when Ivshina and her cameraman went in search of the field outside the town of Torez, where the US government claims an SA-11 BUK surface to air missile was launched at the Boeing 777 on July 17.

Instead of finding witnesses who saw or filmed with camera phones a SAM launch plume that would look like this test firing of an SA-11 in Russia, what Ivshina found instead were people who heard two loud explosions in the sky and described Ukrainian fighter jets near the MH17 crash scene. As Ivshina described in the opening of her report, these Donbas locals were certain the Boeing airliner was shot down by the Ukrainian Air Force."
https://www.globalresearch.ca/mh17-witnesses-tell-bbc-they-saw-ukrainian-jet-bbc-deletes-video/5417092

Interestingly, the video MUST have existed, because following the YouTube link in the article shows "This video isn't available anymore" message.

There was no BUK. But the bulkhead next to the pilot's chair was riddled with round 30mm-sized holes... BUK missiles don't do that. 30mm machine gun fire from a fighter jet DOES do that.

There has been credible independent analysis of the photos from the crash site which confirm 30mm damage, but no BUK-style damage.


Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 13:49 utc | 240

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:05 utc | 210

Thank you, and what resonated with me most is the lack of mountains for guerrilla warfare. The great partisan nations of WWII were Greece and Yugoslavia, because of the wooden mountain fastnesses. Another one was Byelorussia because of the many swamps and forests. Ukraine as you say is relatively flat or rolling steppe. Hard to ambush someone ; especially in Winter with a white background and no tree cover. Mountains in Ukraine? Well apart from the Carpathians ,there are really none, and even those are close to Transnistria and Hungary ,both Russian-friendly, so would cut off supplies, and one hopes Russia could interdict the lines from the North and East .

Sean AU,

Sean ,Could be; Just lining up all their ducks for the right time. Let us hope so.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Nov 30 2022 13:39 utc | 237

Revenge for the mysterious death of the Byelorussian Minister?


Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 30 2022 13:55 utc | 241

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 13:49 utc | 239

Might be this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp5w8HKFnfI

I recall discussion about this also.
And The There Was Silence.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 30 2022 14:02 utc | 242

Most likely, gunned down, on purpose, by an Ukrainian Jet either SU-25 or Su-27.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 30 2022 13:06 utc

Most probably 2 SU-25's equipped for short high-altitude jumps close enough to 30,0000 feet to fire machine guns and rockets. Russian radar showed that. The idea that a pressurized cabin is required is BS, Everest is 29,000+ feet and people climb there, assisted by oxygen masks, in the dozens.

There were even reports one of the pilots surrendered to Russian military, and the location the planes left/returned to was also witnessed. IF the report is true, the pilot though he was shooting down Putin's plane, not a commercial airliner. The blue/white paint scheme of the two planes was VERY similar.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:09 utc | 243

Hope it makes sense, haven't slept for over 40 hrs ...

YMMV

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 13:10 utc | 228

I'd call it well done, a fair summary in the circumstances, then. I don't see much I'd want to argue with.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 14:09 utc | 244

Might be this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp5w8HKFnfI

I recall discussion about this also.
And The There Was Silence.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 30 2022 14:02 utc

Good work!!! From memory, the original video was primarily just the women talking, but yes, those are the witnesses I saw back then.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:15 utc | 245

Might be this one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp5w8HKFnfI

I recall discussion about this also.
And The There Was Silence.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 30 2022 14:02 utc

Good work!!! From memory, the original video was primarily just the women talking, but yes, those are the witnesses I saw back then.


Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:15 utc | 246

Augustus Caesar | Nov 30 2022 12:30 utc | 216

Seriously? That didn't sound that beautiful or rational. The people in the west are living in a "broken civilisation" space so they cannot see or contemplate something as beautiful as "Civilizational Nations" (like Russia and China). Oh come on now. Please.

Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:31 utc | 217

"Why go on the defensive when you have overwhelming force?"

You are describing a war where the enemy military is only restricted to Ukraine and arms/support can be supplied to it. Which is the case today. It does not mean Russia maintains an overwhelming force against a different military force. See?

Todays imbalance situation is not guaranteed. Committing all new 300K troops into Ukraine is not guaranteed ... calling uo another 500K is not guaranteed either - and it would take several months to get them .... The US (+nato not much help) could engage directly right now, today, as it did in Syria/Libya using air/missiles primarily, special forces. Risky yes. Crazy, yes. Big step yes, but possible.

" NATO doesn't have the capability required to push Russia out of Ukraine, let alone attack Russia itself."

US doesn't need to physically push russia out of ukraine (like Germans back to Germany) . US can still rain Armageddon on Ukraine territory from the skies for a very long time. Russia will need to defend itself, hunker down, and expend AD etc. The whole dynamic changes. Russia will take a beating here and there. IT won't be pretty. Everything changes. Every thing.

Plus the entire western world will support the US/Nato doing that ... because Putin is the "evil invader" no one will question it as morally right if Ukraine is losing or it's military is destroyed by Russia who takes more territory at will ... see?

"physically impossible for Russia not to defeat Ukraine's military in its entirety."

Yes agreed (more or less) but if US inserts real military firepower, real AD and real missiles and air attacks it is no longer only Ukraine military (artillery or rockets or small arms) that Russia is fighting.

IF US inserts itself - that will not trigger a nuclear response from Russia - not at first anyway. Yes it is madness -- the US are mad and stupid -- anything could happen. Because the USA cannot let Russia "win" in Ukraine - NATO/US cannot be seen to lose. Houston, we have a problem.

Russia will not allow that level of force to be built up on its borders

I am not was not talking mass US troops .. only select SF .. mainly airforce/naval missiles and air hit and run attacks.

"I see this war being over by this time next year, if not sooner."

In your scenario how will it look on the ground when it is over? Ukraine and Russia shakes hands, oh well you win Russia ... let us all go back to work in peace time. Where is the "border" between UKR and Russia ? How many Russian troops remain in prior UKR territory defending the new Oblasts annexed to Russia, assuming they are. Who holds Odessa/Kharkiv/Kherson for example?

And more importantly what happened to make the fighting stop? Who said ok now, we agree to stop shooting? Did the UK/USA also agree to the ceasefire deal this time? Do the millions of people in west ukr have water, sewerage, heating, food, and electricity and gas stations running?

"And the US and NATO will sooner abandon Ukraine than risk WWIII"

One would hope to think so. But can we be sure? The US is mad, right? Incapable of making good agreements, or keeping them. AS above, US cannot afford to lose in UKR --- not a good look, especially in Taiwan - not good at all.

"But of course, predictions are useless."

Agreed, especially mine - only my gut feel, not technical or war gamed. Time will tell eventually ...

@220 "But Russia can handle Ukraine and NATO - including the US - on its own."

Ooooh, big call (putting nukes aside for the moment)

Poor Ukraine and her people, especially the children. Bad situation.

Cheers

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 14:16 utc | 247

Sorry for the repeat post, I was getting some error that made it appear the post was not going through.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:17 utc | 248

@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:05 utc | 210

Pretty much concur with your points.

The other thing is numerically the diehard OUN-Nazi's dominance by sheer public terror, are only ~5% of the population. Strongly suspect a defeated AFU on the battlefield will break the chains of terror & many Ukrainians will step up if they see the prospect of success. See: Incited, betrayed, failed, southern Shia uprising against Saddam, during extended cease fire negotiations re Coalition-of-the-willing invasion '91, 1st Gulf War)

@ Whirlx - all

Damn shame Wallace was cheated by a rigged nomination, to put in patsy puppet Truman. One of those what if moments ...

Yep, if we don't sort out nukes one day, humanity will eventually just run outta luck.

IMV RF & China are playing Good Cop/Bad Cop at the geostrategic level. RF Bad Cop kinetically, economically & straight talking brutal truths, China re soft power, economic win-win development & soft diplomatic influence, yet clearly allies, & probably been co-operating planning re current events since '08.

Agreed. China is ... uncertain ... unsteady ... though PLA/PLAF/PLAN forces are just huge, highly capable & well equipped ... yet, they are truly green & untested in modern high intensity peer conventional conflict. China would want to acquire moderate combat & operational conflict experience to purge & replace dead wood & re-calibrate doctrine, planning & materiel, before putting it all on one throw of the dice. The doubtful grouping is ground forces, but they are the least relevant re China situ. PLAN/PLAF forces are tight, & primarily its their conventional missile/ballistic/aerospace assets that will be likely most decisive re war.

But if imminent survival or sovereignty threatened, they will fully commit. Same for going in with RF in a wider conventional conflict. Same same Iran, yet razor sharp & ever ready. IMV.

How can Empire face RF, &/or China &/or Iran ?

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 14:18 utc | 249

one wonders whether it's a technical accident or targeted action by the Evil Empire.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 29 2022 20:13 utc | 8

PayPal banned Consortium News back in June. I cancelled my account with PayPal.

Posted by: Gene Poole | Nov 30 2022 14:21 utc | 250

I expect to see some Chinese military on the ground there
whirlX | Nov 30 2022 12:52 utc | 225


I could be wrong, sure, but from what I understand about China, things like non-interference principles in other states and the like, and it's declared military purpose etc of the PLA, I think there is a far greater chance of the Ayatollah converting to Judaism than Chinese forces being sent to Ukraine. :)

Still, stranger things have happened, though I cannot recall one right now.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 14:25 utc | 251

@ Outraged | Nov 30 2022 14:18 utc | 248
RF & China are playing Good Cop/Bad Cop.. .
Westerners and easterners are naturally different from each other in their strategies, with the prior wanting to get 'er done and the latter being more cautious, taking the long view.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 14:26 utc | 252

#Rumors
The source reports that the Office of the President does not really believe that Ursula just blurted out about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in one hundred thousand.

The source indicates that this is most likely a public hint to Zelensky that now this topic will be promoted by foreign media if he continues to “act up” and make nerves for the “directors” of the Ukrainian crisis, who outlined some shifts in the plot in the “series”.

Otherwise, everyone already knew that the Office of the President was lying about the small losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Only naive fools can believe that there are no losses.

Now everyone understands that the EU also knows that the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are one hundred thousand, which means that when Zelensky needs to be merged, this case will be promoted in Europe. The emphasis will be this: the authorities of Kyiv treated their soldiers like cannon fodder, throwing them under tanks, trying to save their rule with “human resources”.

Watching...


https://t.me/legitimniy/14214

Posted by: Down South | Nov 30 2022 14:33 utc | 253

@Altai | Nov 30 2022 12:07 utc | 211

The Russians announced the removal of 'culturally sensitive works' at the same time as they same time as they announced their withdrawal from Kherson. The reasoning should be pretty obvious when you look at what happens to things the Ukrainian nationalists perceive to be 'Russian'. On a slow news day it's easy enough to turn that into 'Russians looting'.

Posted by: Another James | Nov 30 2022 14:36 utc | 254

I think the Russian military played it poorly when cooperating with the BUK theory by demonstrating the effect of the intercept. Given that it is not really a question of whose BUK it is with the serial number nonsense, when it is pretty clear that there was no BUK except in staged transport photos. I look forward to the occupation of Kiev and the search of SBU records to set the record streight.
But then this may be wishful thinking.

Posted by: YY | Nov 30 2022 14:37 utc | 255

imported cases of HIV in 1910?
m'k. To be charitable, I'll assume 2nd order transcription error, rather than a low bar of editorial standards tolerated by Polish gov't through the ages of European Four Pillars of Freedom.

Conversely, earlier in the year certain eurocentric news agencies (eg. euractiv) promulagated concerns in "government building" about the exeedingly poor health and unspecified chronic diseases afflicting the "first wave" of Ukrainian refugees. The salient point of that alert--since quashed-- being additional stress and costs imposed on Europes "critical infrastructure", rather than, say, vigilance tuned to "post-pandemic" symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 variant epidemiology, exacting medical surveillance, and impotent antiviral product marketing. Which amused me then and still does, since MSM fixation on dashboard COVID-19 tracking has prematurely collapsed with herd- and community-immunity theories of public health and economic recovery.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 30 2022 14:38 utc | 256

When the war in Uqraine comes to an end 'soon' a large percentage of westernized Uqrainians will have fled cold hungry and bereaved to Europe ( good luck with that).
A large percent of fighting age males will be dead.
History will show that Putin stuck to his plan of denazification.
The Uqraine govenment and Azov Bandera ect were the hostile perpetrators from start to finish, prompted by US AND UK.
Putin has been very clever when this is over and the mass Public are not scared to speak their mind against Zelensky then we will for the first time hear the opinion not under duress.
Mmmm V Putin knows this.

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 30 2022 14:50 utc | 258

Hot tip - compare the traffic in Kiev, to that of Moscow by the use of Google maps traffic.

If you zoom out - you can watch the activity on the border crossings. It makes for an interesting picture, me thinks.

Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 14:51 utc | 259

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:15 utc | 244

That particular YT video is archived on

https://web.archive.org/

https://archive.ph/

If something disappears from YT it is worth to take the link and check those two places.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 30 2022 14:56 utc | 260

Stoltenberg & Blinken re-affirm NATO pledge to bring Ukraine in.

Yesterday--Tuesday, November 29-- NATO met in Bucharest, Romania, where neocons insisted that they still love Ukraine.

“We made the decision in Bucharest in 2008 at the summit,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday. “I was there … representing Norway as Prime Minister. I remember very well the decisions. We stand by those decisions. NATO’s door is open.”

In a joint statement, the NATO foreign ministers, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, said that they “reaffirm” the decisions that were made at the 2008 Bucharest summit.

jaw dropping.

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/11/29/nato-doubles-down-on-pledge-to-eventually-admit-ukraine/

Posted by: migueljose | Nov 30 2022 14:58 utc | 261

There's very little wind in UK today.
Here's the link to UK electricity generation:

https://energynumbers.info/gbgrid

If this is being repeated over Europe, we'll soon be weeping for that Russian gas.

Posted by: Engineer-John | Nov 30 2022 15:16 utc | 262

If something disappears from YT it is worth to take the link and check those two places.

Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 30 2022 14:56 utc

I keep forgetting to check there, and archived material seldom shows in general search results.

Thanks for taking the time to find that video, it is a critical piece of evidence that should not be allowed to fall down the memory-hole. But back then who thought YouTube etc. would engage in the wholesale censorship we have seen?

Now we know.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 15:17 utc | 263

[94] The reason the RF sends up to three waves in quick succession when targeting critical infrastructure is a portion of the second & third waves promptly target & destroy a percentage of the identified/located AD systems that fired upon the first wave. And initial real-time BDA allows for prompt second or third strikes on targets not sufficiently annihilated.

My opinion is that for the most part it takes too long for the radars that come up on the first wave to be targeted and hit by the next wave. Ukraine likely fires and then moves with the radars off. The Russians have very few weapons that can be retargeted while in the air while in the vicinity of a potential target that just showed up. And the further from the front lines, outside of Russian artillery range, the less likely this will happen.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 30 2022 15:19 utc | 264

When the Ukraine government is no more, when Mother Russia has moved troops up to the Polish border and seen much of the territory’s residents up and moved to the EU/Europe, when ‘Holodomor’ Zelensky has set up his movie set in exile in Miami, why then America and friends will demand reparations, much as France demanded of Haitians after their successful slave revolt.

Posted by: Butte Bill | Nov 30 2022 15:20 utc | 265

PayPal banned Consortium News back in June. I cancelled my account with PayPal.

Posted by: Gene Poole | Nov 30 2022 14:21 utc

I had read Consortium News for years, but after Parry died, it seems there was a change from the "original" flavour. If Paypal cut them off, must be doing something right again...LOL! Hoping this is the case.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 15:27 utc | 266

Posted by: Anne B | Nov 30 2022 14:51 utc | 258

What option do you select to watch traffic?

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 15:28 utc | 267

From a previous comment section.

It takes a particularly empty kind of sociopath to do even a fraction of the lying, scamming, defrauding, cheating and bullshitting that goes on in Ukraine. I'd call it a mafia state but the mafia have some ethics. I've just been watching footage from Bonnel's Donbas be rebranded by Ukrops as Kharkov 2022.

Posted by: Patroklos | Nov 29 2022 18:58 utc | 28

Posted here -

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/more-on-the-crypto-scam-theres-a-sucker-born-every-minute.html#more

The video here:-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8j0tJsKltg

The Poroshenko address at the start of the video has also a private significance for me. I submitted the video as part of a penultimate comment on Colonel Lang's site.

Also the Brayard account, which I believe to be authentic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFynJY_SeKc&t=10s

I've come to believe that it's here so many went wrong in assessing this conflict. We may all have our Hudsonian theories about various systems of running an economy. We may all agree, as I certainly do, with the scholarly analyses of such as Meersheimer treating of Western foreign policy failures over the decades. All this is important and only the incurious or the limited ignore it.

But to stick to that, as so many so cautiously do, is selling the pass. When we see a child running across a busy road we don't sit around arguing over scholarly disquisitions on traffic management, though it well could be that poor traffic management is one of the causes of the crisis. We dive in and get the child out of the way, or stop cars coming up too fast. No theories. Just recognition of the immediate crisis.

The neo-Nazi/Banderite attitude to and treatment of the civilian inhabitants of the Donbass takes precedence over whatever geopolitical considerations we may wish to examine or whatever political view we may happen to hold. It is purely a question of fact. If we believe the Madonna of Gorlovka is invented tragedy and part of an invented sequence of tragedies then we must dismiss it as such. If we do not so believe then we have no option but to consider those atrocities first.

And to speak out forcefully against those atrocities. There I do believe the theorists are in the wrong. If they know of the atrocities that is the first thing they should speak of. If they do not know, or are too timid to speak of what they know, they should remain silent.

Many of us also know. This, taken from a brief TTG summary I saw on the Colonel's site a while back, set out what the people of the Donbass were coping with from 2014 on and what they are fighting to stop now:-

"The Maidan Revolution occurred under conditions of anarchy and continued corruption. Under the cover of that anarchy, the right wing elements, the neo-nazis, white supremacists, anti-semitics and ultra nationalists gained ascendancy. They formed the right wing militias that threatened the lives of those in the east.

"The rebels had no choice but to fight for their lives. And they did. And it got ugly."

It's still ugly. The shelling from Avdiivka deliberately targeting civilians continues even today. All over Ukraine we see the attitudes and conduct that was standard for the neo-Nazis/Banderites in Ukraine during the Second World War standard today. You remind us, Patroklos, that we may not sit back and obscure that vicious reality with discussion of the wider picture until that central reality is honestly acknowledged.
........................................

Posted by: English Outsider | Nov 30 2022 15:29 utc | 268

reply to 204

This AFU collapse seems long delayed. I have to wonder if the West keeps paying for most everything, it simply drags out the horrific end beyond what it would have been - with a lot more killed and worse afterwards.

OTOH, there is value for the EU in killing off as many Ukrainians as possible to prevent refugees. I also wonder.....is there value in the US holding off on supplying weapons to Ukraine? If they use them now, they risk looking bad in the field (junky artillery, HIMARS being largely ineffective) BUT if they wait, they can sell weapons later, regardless of quality.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 30 2022 15:37 utc | 269

@ Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 14:09 utc | 243

Thank you. You have got me curious re quibbles though.

Anyway going to force it with some sleeping pills, too old & too exhausted endure ... must sleep.

@ Don Bacon | Nov 30 2022 14:26 utc | 251

No arguments here. Yet China has repeatedly backed up or stood in for RF on the world stage. And China has known a potential conflict with Empire is inevitable. China also knows if RF is dismembered the Empire will have troops & missiles at its borders. Undesirable to say the least.

In regard to having direct access to RF & Chinas borders that has been Empires over-arching strategy from WWII onwards ...

@ Bill Smith | Nov 30 2022 15:19 utc | 264

How quickly do you think a deployed, dispersed & active S-300 battery can redeploy after launch ? Less so with Buks & Osa's. Yet the very act of moving is extreme risk of prompt identification & targeting as a high priority task for theater surveillance assets. Oops.

What makes you think at least a portion of the drones in the second wave are NOT remotely piloted to perform the task ?

Assumptive that a portion of the first wave of drones & missiles have no EW/detection or remote visual surveillance capability to relay loc of detected launch sites upon firing, for prompt engagement by second wave ? See above.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 15:56 utc | 270

Anyway going to force it with some sleeping pills, too old & too exhausted endure ... must sleep.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 15:56 utc | 270

Good, crank will mess you up. I will read that again and think about quibbles.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 16:01 utc | 271

Posted by: Engineer-John | Nov 30 2022 15:16 utc

Super site, thanks. If MoA readers want to know where their country fits in the "green power" standings:
https://energynumbers.info/renewables-in-the-electricity-grid-country-by-country-penetrations-in-2019

Canada has only 18.1% non-nuclear or non-renewables. So WTF is Trudy screaming about? 78% of Tar Sands production goes to... drumroll... the USA.

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 16:05 utc | 272

Richard Steven Hack | Nov 30 2022 12:35 utc | 220


Russia doesn't need anything from China but the moral support, which it already has - and maybe some computer chips.

They get definitely more than just chips. Alina Lipp's blog (in German and Russian) reported on Nov. 28 that the "Moskvitch" car works in Moscow, abandoned by Renault due to sanctions, were taken over by JAC from Zhengzhou, PRC. The car "Moskvich 3" they recently started to make is the JAC X4. There have been an air bridge and a rail link established between Moscow and Henan Province to deliver parts.

The blog links to an Ukrainian "defence-ua" website to prove the air link. They also inform that JAC is to 75% owned by VW (hence a "hostile takeover" from Renault by VW) and (in order to claim that not loss in quality is to be expected) that all of VW's EVs are designed in China.


Posted by: OttoE | Nov 30 2022 16:07 utc | 273

Good, crank will mess you up. I will read that again and think about quibbles.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 16:01 utc | 271

@outraged:

Having examined that again, in light of who is speaking to whom, I have no objections. My related experience is mainly from wargaming, and I don't keep up, so don't have a lot of sharp opinions. I think in terms of logistics mostly, and I think outsourcing our industrial capacity probes new depths of stupidity.

On the other hand, I approve, because we need to get these dumb weasels off our back.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 16:27 utc | 274

@Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 30 2022 16:22 utc | 274
Cc: Gene Poole

Who cares about your [cancelled PayPal] account? What a moron.

I do. There is an underlying message: BDS wherever possible. "Kleinvieh macht auch Mist", as the German proverb goes.

Another message about etiquette was frequently sent by the host of this bar: Don't attack people.

Posted by: OttoE | Nov 30 2022 16:41 utc | 275

https://energynumbers.info/gbgrid
If this is being repeated over Europe, we'll soon be weeping for that Russian gas.
Posted by: Engineer-John | Nov 30 2022 15:16 utc | 262

Blocking high situated over Scandinavia. No change expected anytime soon.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/andrej-news/weather-forecast-winter-december-united-states-europe-pressure-anomaly-blocking-pattern-early-month.png

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 30 2022 17:16 utc | 276

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 30 2022 0:47 utc | 58

...
Several years ago, Patrushev told Occupied Palestine and the Outlaw US Empire that Iran was considered under Russia's nuclear umbrella. I could add more, but you asked about alliances.

Did he say that in a public speech? Would you have a reference for us?

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 18:03 utc | 277

Re: Shoigu now after 9 months talking about using the more advanced weapons(my rewording,) my take is the Russians now think Nato or the US will not directly intervene, so why hold them back?

Posted by: morongobill | Nov 30 2022 18:13 utc | 278

"Putin Iran strategic partners":

Rouhani and Putin: Iran and Russia are ‘strategic partners’

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 30 2022 18:17 utc | 279

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:15 utc | 245

Yes, we all saw those vids and their deletion by BBC ...

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 30 2022 18:28 utc | 280

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 14:09 utc | 243

...
There were even reports one of the pilots surrendered to Russian military, and the location the planes left/returned to was also witnessed. IF the report is true, the pilot though he was shooting down Putin's plane, not a commercial airliner. The blue/white paint scheme of the two planes was VERY similar.

If the report is true, what does that say about Russian strategists voluntarily keeping it under the rug?

"Hey, better make sure this thing doesn't come to light, lest it seriously rattle public confidence in the dominant narrative and hamper our adversary's political will to wage war against us."

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 19:24 utc | 281

Who cares about your account? What a moron.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 30 2022 16:22 utc

Bodysnatcher still at it?

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:29 utc | 282

Yes, we all saw those vids and their deletion by BBC ...
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 30 2022 18:28 utc

Maybe not ALL of current MoA readers, so a refresh is useful.

---------
If the report is true, what does that say about Russian strategists voluntarily keeping it under the rug?
Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 19:24 utc

Voluntarily? More like they are busy dealing with more effective tactics/strategies.

It is obvious that Russia is not playing the "media propaganda" game the way US/EU/ZATO residents are accustomed. There have been endless posts at MoA slagging Russia for not directly attacking the MSM/SocialMedia juggernaught in kind. I think the Kremlin's attitude is, "they've been told, we're not their mommy constantly reminding them to wash behind their ears".

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:40 utc | 283

Did he say that in a public speech? Would you have a reference for us?
Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 18:03 utc

Or you could actually type "patrusevs nuclear umbrella" into a search engine, and MAGICALLY the below appears. Would have taken less time than composing your ...ahem... reply.

https://appc.lv/eng/n-patrusevs-par-kodolierocu-pielietosanu/

And you might have learned for yourself:

Sept 30, 2009...

"The fact is much more important that the doctrine and strategy stipulate for possibility of deployment of Russia’s troops in the other countries in case threats are posed to the state of Russia or its citizens. European countries, and especially the Baltic ones, should be concerned about that, not about the eventual situation that Russia one day might throw nuclear warheads thousands of kilometres from Moscow."

Sound familiar?

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:53 utc | 284

The obvious "Speak Truth to Power" is a given! Few ever do. China and Russia, forget everyone else, are still not doing that now.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 4:22 utc | 100

---

Despite the officially worshiped party paradigm of the dictatorship of the proletariat and the obvious modernity within Chinese society, ancient Chinese culture has been shaped for millennia by a highly stylized, ritualized, and strictly regulated hierarchy that indirectly favors the principle of conformity.

I would assume that the obvious "Speak Truth to Power" is subject to a wide variety of regulations around the world, and may not always be immediately recognizable to westerners due to cultural differences.

I may be wrong though.

Posted by: Nobody | Nov 30 2022 20:36 utc | 285

Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 13:49 utc | 240
MH-17
Buk v Ukrainian AF shoot down (+ telltale contamination of crime scene and criminal obfuscation of legitimate investigations)….
It’s the version with the fighter jets I eventually subscribed to.
Over the decades, half century and even before… what is consistent when malfeasant operators created or are complicit in an event ….. they cover their tracks with 2-3-4 or more plausible “how’s”…. Always ignoring “who” “why” and… of course, the criminal giveaway… cui bono.
The flip side of one of these operations… but just as big a “tell”, in my observation, is the complete evaporation of a narrative. Cue the recent NS2. They tried to blame the Russians… but only the most retarded and or psychotically obsessed Russia hater could accept that Russia blew up its own pipeline. The US motive, threats, intent, and an cui bono was all obvious. The sabotage of NS2 has all but disappeared from online discussion, despite the escalating energy prices across Europe (and the world).
Another “signature” of a created event is the media returning it to public awareness with “anniversaries” and “what really happened” stories.
It seems real tragedies and events of capricious fate, are left to survivors and affected families to mourn.
Created events, such as the Bali Bombing, MH-17, MH-370, these are “replayed” for years, until the public are thoroughly indoctrinated into the “correct” narrative, squeezing out any room for questions about the improbability of the official version.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 30 2022 20:42 utc | 286

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:40 utc | 284

...
Voluntarily? More like they are busy dealing with more effective tactics/strategies.

It is obvious that Russia is not playing the "media propaganda" game the way US/EU/ZATO residents are accustomed. There have been endless posts at MoA slagging Russia for not directly attacking the MSM/SocialMedia juggernaught in kind. I think the Kremlin's attitude is, "they've been told, we're not their mommy constantly reminding them to wash behind their ears".


It is also my impression that Russia isn't playing the media propaganda game. Or at least, not very well. I have seen occasional posts pointing this out, but very few that question the logic. It's unfortunate because this would make for interesting discussion.

To be honest, I'm having trouble believing the captured pilot confession story. But nevertheless, why would Russia fight with one arm behind its back? It's akin to deliberately fielding flintlock muzzle loaders on a modern battlefield. And, no surprise, it is indeed getting pounded. The evidence to that is the West's unwavering political resolve to pursue its belligerence. All thanks to the complete absence of public opposition.

In other words, Western public opinion is the battlefield. In fact, it could well be the ultimate battlefield, insofar as it has the potential to alter Western policy.

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 21:04 utc | 287

Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 30 2022 19:53 utc | 285

Thanks for the link. It is an interesting read.

Now it may have been printed in plain sight and I somehow missed it, but I didn't find any mention of a nuclear umbrella over Iran.

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 21:08 utc | 288

Nobody | Nov 30 2022 20:36 utc | 286

Hi there, I am not sure what you mean there. But suspect you may not have got my point earlier which you are responding to.

So just in case, what I was speaking about was russia/china and all other nations not standing up against the USA for a very very very long time, iow them not speaking truth to power - to the USA.

I do understand the reticence, I get it, but we are here today because of it... as per the rest of my comment @ 100

What we have here people is the classic case of an Abuse of Power - by the USA and it's cohorts.
My last point is also simple - had the whole world acted courageously and in unison like CUBA has acted since the 1950s then the USA would not now be a globally abusive power...
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-open-thread-2022-211/comments/page/1/#comments

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 23:57 utc | 289

It is also my impression that Russia isn't playing the media propaganda game.
robin | Nov 30 2022 21:04 utc | 288

Not only that, but Russia their leadership and Putin, do not even take on the US Europe leadership either in direct verbal confrontations. They are tame in the UNSC. They are tame speaking in public statements like Putins "speechs"from the kremlin to the russian people ... he does truly ever tell it like it is and take strips off the US and specific leaders for their corrupt / insane behavior and words or their outright Lies.

Russia/putin are always playing this nice polite diplomacy game and badly. Especially after people like Biden call Putin a murderer and when others label them a terrorist state and much worse.

Instead Putin seems to spend his days trying to make another gas pipeline deal with Turkey to deliver to Europe instead. The problem here the same one it has always been -- lay down with dogs and you get up with fleas.

Putin and Russia have been doing this for over two decades. Time to call a spade a spade, act accordingly.

Of course he is the President and I am a nobody, so there is also that. :)

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 0:10 utc | 290

Patently obvious 'nobody' actually never reads the formal, official & public statements by the leadership & official spokespersons of the Russian government. Unsurprising.

Posted by: Outraged | Dec 1 2022 1:35 utc | 291

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 30 2022 10:28 utc | 185

The criminalisation of Russia is simple - Germany even labeling the Holodomor as genocide, with Russia as the heir responsible. It is all about the money. The €300 billion frozen Russian reserves - if Russia is proven criminal, it creates a legal opportunity to steal it all.

Jut my €0.02...

Posted by: Richard Head | Dec 1 2022 5:14 utc | 292

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 21:04 utc | 288
"It is also my impression that Russia isn't playing the media propaganda game. Or at least, not very well. I have seen occasional posts pointing this out, but very few that question the logic. It's unfortunate because this would make for interesting discussion."


Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 0:10 utc | 291
"Not only that, but Russia their leadership and Putin, do not even take on the US Europe leadership either in direct verbal confrontations."

Russia's approach to the Western 'media propaganda game' has been discussed frequently, exhaustively, here at MoA, and indeed it has been an 'interesting discussion'.

Posted by: robin | Nov 30 2022 21:04 utc | 288:
"In other words, Western public opinion is the battlefield. In fact, it could well be the ultimate battlefield, insofar as it has the potential to alter Western policy."

Another Aussie here:
Russia/President Putin/FM Lavrov are not primarily addressing we of the 'Golden Billion', we of the 'Empire of Lies', nor our leaders.

Their audience is the 85% of Earth's peoples not of the West. They are speaking a language the ROW understands. And their message is persuasive for that audience.

From the outset of the SMO, in my belated effort to understand its geopolitical causes and trajectory, I have tried to imagine myself as a typical citizen of Russia, or China, or Senegal, or Venezuela, or Iran, or....
With those 'ears' I hear and understand what Russia is saying, and it rings true.

Most of my peers in Australia, and certainly our leaders, are deaf, deluded, indoctrinated, invested or cowered. From others here at MoA I understand the same to be the case in the US, CA, UK, EU. Russia is wise to vacate the 'battlefield of public opinion' in the West. Western policy will not be swayed from its suicidal course by public opinion anytime soon. Certainly Russia is under no obligation to satisfy those of us who by predisposition or acclimatization prefer a daily media diet of noise, bluster and 'direct verbal confrontation'.

Russia and the ROW will prevail on the battlefields that matter.

Posted by: Andrew Celestina | Dec 1 2022 7:45 utc | 293

They are speaking a language the ROW understands. And their message is persuasive for that audience.
Andrew Celestina | Dec 1 2022 7:45 utc | 294

I don't know how anyone could ascertain that. Maybe true for row nations leaders, some media, officials academics and so on but the row public? I'm not so sure, because I just don't know.

I've been listening to Putins speeches/talks Valdai etc for a very very long time now and never had any trouble understanding him myself (that I know of).

But it always felt clear to me the entire time that in the west pollies, people in power, govt officials, media etc clearly do not understand him or Lavrov nor believe them - and most of them do not even bother to listen in the first place.

it is my understanding hardly anyone else in the "west" or the row would even know what the Russians have been saying at all. But how would I know for sure either? My best guess?

Andrew you and I and others like moa folks (in the west and RoW) are imo the exceptions not the rule.

Thanks for the reply. It's all good.

Posted by: SeanAU | Dec 1 2022 11:29 utc | 294

@ Andrew Celestina | Dec 1 2022 7:45 utc | 294

Upholding ones own image to the world is important, obviously. And of course, so is working on ones domestic image. But that's not what's at work here. I'm talking about acting defensively to diminish - or prevent, the harm incurred from specific attacks.

Let's say you are tasked with defending the harbour. As you submit the plans for the firing positions, someone dismisses your strategy and points out that the ocean is, like, 99.9% more vast than the puny field you are targeting. The rest of the world is out there, why focus on a small opening beyond the breakwater?

The parallel I'm making is that there is a specific, restricted, battle field involved in the present conflict.

We could use the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines as an example. Objectively, this is an act of war with a profound impact on all parties involved in the project, buyer and seller alike. And as it has been assessed repeatedly on this forum, we're talking about the instant suppression of a very important means of supply of natural gas. Add a comprehensive basket of sanctions and boycotts and it seems obvious that the energy supply of the continent for the medium, and possibly long term, is compromised.

Now what is remarkable is the complete absence of concern, or even of recognition, by the European public. Everyone is aware of the financial crises and the hard times ahead, but nobody is inclined to put two and two together and look at the obvious cause. This applies to many other state policies which run counter to the European public's interest. Unsurprisingly, most foreign policies fall in this category.

My only explanation for this miracle is the unrivalled competence of the Empire to impose an exclusive narrative. And this exclusive narrative is imposed by waging a heavy, constant, battle on the one field that counts.

Citizens of Russia, China, Senegal, Venezuela or Iran do not have the possibility to change these policies by voting or marching in the streets. In fact, what they say or do won't matter at all, not because they themselves don't matter, but simply because these are Western policies.

Posted by: robin | Dec 1 2022 19:14 utc | 295

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