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November 27, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-210
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Peter AU1 #189
I wonder if our Aussie ambassador Downer who bugged the East Timor embassy then took up a well paid consultancy with Woodside is still taking a cut.
I have a thousand I can offer 😉
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 28 2022 9:46 utc | 201
,”Size Of British Army To Hit 200-Year Low, Only Sufficient To “Stay At Home & Tootle Around” Warns SecDef”
Took a while for reality to get on the agenda.
Posted by: jpc | Nov 28 2022 9:51 utc | 202
US Department of Defense spokesman:
“The Pentagon is very concerned that the Ukrainians are firing at an exorbitant rate, especially in places like Bakhmut, based on the false assumption that ammunition supplies in the West are unlimited …”
&
Intel Slava
Evgeny Prigozhin (owner of wagner PMC):
“Bakhmut is a large, well-fortified area with roads, suburbs and water barriers. The Ukrainian army is well prepared and offers worthy resistance.
Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the “Bakhmut meat grinder.”
In this regard, do not run ahead of the locomotive, it will happen – we will let you know, happiness loves silence.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 9:34 utc | 197
please do share
Posted by: abrogard | Nov 28 2022 9:59 utc | 204
uncle tungsten | Nov 28 2022 9:46 utc | 201 “I have a thousand I can offer ;)”
As a consultant? A thousand bucks and top it off with booze and I can offer much good advice.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 10:15 utc | 205
Re: Paul GV @179 and Lapin @187
There is not much talk about the environmental cost and compression/liquefaction/decompression energy cost of the LNG.
These processes require massive energy. Some might by recovered by heat exchangers at the receiving end. Than there is the venting losses, the gas is not entirely corked in their large tanks. As an illustration – sometimes on the road you may be passing tanker trucks, carrying some liquid gas. The trucks are with a little plume of white vapor. That is the loss of the gas, and this prevents pressure building up.
How “green” is the LNG operation, as a whole? What is the total cost of it? Several weeks ago there was concern about the russian gas escaping to the atmosphere, due to samctions. Not much attention to the pollution of LNG wonderful technology.
Posted by: LogosApplied | Nov 28 2022 10:16 utc | 206
@ G Stroller 198
I wanted to vote green because of climate change, but then I changed my mind and voted blue and yellow instead.
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 28 2022 10:27 utc | 207
Giyane | Nov 28 2022 10:27 utc | 207 “but then I changed my mind and voted blue and yellow instead.”
Copper sulfate an uranium?
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 10:30 utc | 208
Isn’t it so that the Western mind is again like in middle ages, in times of witch hunts?
Every day I amazed.
We learn that the capitalists are rational, that in neoliberal society the power of capital is over teh government and ideology. But it seems to be wrong.
Posted by: margot | Nov 28 2022 10:31 utc | 209
Posted by: margo | Nov 28 2022 9:01 utc | 194
Yup, looks like this GLSDB is way to launch GBU-39 glide munitions with an MLRS rocket as the booster. Precision guidance and a laser homing version to hit moving targets. The rocket seems to fall away once expended, then it’s a glide munition with foldout wings.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb
https://www.boeing.co.kr/resources/ko_KR/Seoul-International/2015/GLSDB.pdf
I wouldn’t be surprised if things like this end up being launched from single-shot disposable frames that are towed out into the sticks and left there until called upon with SMS-delivered target coordinates.
Automated target recognition is making anything that actually looks like a piece of military hardware increasingly uneconomical.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 28 2022 10:35 utc | 210
Gt stroller @ 195
Your logic here would be fine except….
Voting democracy depends in a well informed voteing public.
The British voter is as thick as two short planks.
Thanks to media manipulation from Murdoch press baron.
(If you put rubbish news in you get rubbish out)
‘Public perseption manigment’
Posted by: Rickstrees@gmail.com | Nov 28 2022 10:38 utc | 211
In 2018, the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation developed a draft medical certificate that will help transgender people with confirming their gender identity on their legal documents. The Ministry of Justice approved this document on January 19, 2018. Prior to this a court decision is required.
A certificate of gender change required to change person’s gender in documents such as a birth certificate and passport, and can be obtained on the basis of a medical commission consisting of a psychiatrist, a sexologist and a medical psychologist. Neither sex-affirmative surgery nor hormone replacement therapy are required. The minimum duration of psychiatric observation is not specified in the final document of the Ministry of Health. On average, the commission lasts from 2 days to 1 month. Here is a paper by Dr. Isaev from St Petersburg in 2017. Its a little dated now but gives the direction.
https://epath.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/transgender-healthcare-in-Russia.pdf
This is a statement from the Ministry of Health.
http://pravo-trans.eu/the-russian-ministry-of-health-approved-the-legal-gender-recognition-procedure/
I hope this reassures you comrade in regard to transgender rights. If it upsets you, i genuinely pity you.
Good enough for you comrade?
Stop reading and believing the Guardian FFS champ.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 10:41 utc | 212
Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 10:41 utc | 212
Has nothing to do with Ukraine. Move it to the gender thread.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 10:47 utc | 213
Posted by: Moscow Exile | Nov 28 2022 9:39 utc | 200
Thanks friend. I thought so.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 28 2022 10:54 utc | 214
My comment above was directed to comrade simba | Nov 27 2022 22:35 utc | 114
Posted by: Spare_Truth | Nov 28 2022 1:06 utc | 138
With respect you are wrong on two counts. First, the lies about the suppression of gender rights in the Russian Federation is part of the general imperialist lie that Russia is a dictatorship and an authoritarian society. Have you been sleeping through this war. The ideological justification of the attack on the Russian Federation by US imperialism and its satellites is the new cold war between so-called ‘democracy’ and so-called authoritarian countries, particularly Russia. So the truth about human rights in Russia is very much a critical factor in this war. Second, you are wrong to try to supress the truth about Russia in any forum in regard to this war. The propaganda against the Russian Federation is fierce. There is more than enough censoring of pro-Russian views and truth in the MSM. If you dont want to read a comment move on to the next one. Its called reading.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 10:55 utc | 215
Stupid and reactionary. Can you imagine the Soviet Union pulling nonsense like this, let alone in the middle of a war?
This kind of thing will cement loyalty to the Western regime amongst normal people. Promotion of 100 genders etc might be a bit “woke” and daft but excessive virtue-signalling seems better than the alternative of some dour Orthodox priest screaming at you for being gay.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 27 2022 18:13 utc | 66
Honestly, having some conservative opinion on this is hardly “stupid” or even “reactionary”. This whole thing has gone fully out of hand and over here in Germany even frowning at this whole genderism/LGBT stuff might see you ostracized by media and politicians alike. It’s more like a hysteria than anything else, being “better” than anyone else on these controversial topics. And rest assured, a large percentage of German people is pretty annoyed how all this takes centre stage ahead of more real problems in society.
Anti-Spiegel has a neat article on this: https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2022/cancel-culture-woke-lgbt-eine-minderheit-unterdrueckt-die-mehrheit/
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 28 2022 10:59 utc | 216
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 10:55 utc | 215
Hear!
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 11:02 utc | 217
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 10:47 utc | 213
Has everything to do with the war against the Russian Federation. The war in Ukraine as you quaintly refer to it, is actually a war against Russia. Unless you consider the war to be one of aggression by Russia against Ukraine. Most intelligent people regard to the war as a defensive war legally waged by Russia in defense of its national interests. Part of the war being waged against Russia by US imperialism is a propaganda war of lies and slanders, included is the lies in regard to this issue and human rights in Russia. Perhaps you would like to remove yourself from intelligent discussion. But dont censor people. I am an Australian mate and we dont like being told what to say and where to say it. Got it?
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 11:04 utc | 218
Ahem, ^ this ^ is the UKRAINE thread.
ALL else to the current Open Thread – The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-209, Please. Hm ?
Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 11:04 utc | 218 “The war in Ukraine as you quaintly refer”
There is nothing quaint. Your name has not been around long if at all. Like a virgin.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:09 utc | 220
The second order calculus is whether the cost of the intercepting missile is cheaper than the cost of the attacking missile it is intended to stop, _plus_ the cost of repair of the intended target.
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 27 2022 15:47 utc | 33
This calculation is much too simplistic
(I) The defender fires exactly when
expected_damage_when_firing < expected_damage_when_not_firing
where the left side contains: the cost of the anti air missile, the probability of intercept,
the expected damage on target if no intercept (derived from circular error probability of incoming), the right side also depends on some of these. Both sides have to factor in intangibles (like public relations value, effect on enemy and domestic morale,...)
This does not depend on the cost of the incoming missile.
The attacker has made the decision to attack, regardless of whether it makes economic sense or not. You now have to react rationally given this fact.
(II) The attacker fires exactly when
expected_damage_on_enemy > cost_of_firing,
This is the basis for the economic calculation that you do
to decide whether it makes sense to attack or not.
The cost of firing is the cost of the missile plus intangibles
like public relations value and troop morale.
The left hand side contains more than just the expected direct damage on target (e.g strategic value of target destruction,
damage to enemy morale,…
Given these intangibles it’s really not easy to decide what to do.
Posted by: bottle | Nov 28 2022 11:09 utc | 221
Outraged | Nov 28 2022 11:07 utc | 219
Ahem is the word. I have been saying it politely to date.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:11 utc | 222
Posted by: BostonTom | Nov 27 2022 15:47 utc | 33
Interesting articles regarding the Russian missiles, yet, many if not all of the sources mentioned are Ukrainian or Western ones. It is highly unlikely that any Western or Ukrainian site or source knows the exact number of missiles produced, in stock, or fired. We had an article by b a wee while back stating claims by the British secret service(s) that the Russians would run out of high-precision missiles nearly every month. Only this week it was reported that this was the case again, as Russian increasingly (whatever that means) uses anti-aircraft missiles (supposedly, S-300s, I would assume) and ballistic missiles (“without the nuclear warhead”) these days. I can envisage British agents digging through the wet craters and debris in Ukrainian transformator stations for that evidence … aye right.
AFAIK, Russia’s missile production factories work 24/7 these days to re-stock the arsenals.
Meanwhile … closer to the frontier:
How new MLRS perform within special military operation
Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket system from the Western Military District neutralises and destroys command posts, warehouses with arms, munition, fuel and lubricants, communication nodes, air defence means and other targets.
– Tornado-S multiple-launch rocket system is a deeply upgraded version of Smerch MLRS. The improvement concerned munition, communication and control equipment. The developers managed to significantly increase the range, accuracy and firepower of this type of MLRS.
– Like its predecessor, Tornado-S has 12 launchers for 300mm rockets. The system is capable of engaging targets at a substantially greater range than the Smerch.
– The projectiles can be launched at different distances and in different directions. This means that a single Tornado-S can destroy several of the AFU targets in a single salvo.
Tornado is considered one of the best in the world and surpasses its foreign counterparts in many respects.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/22217
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 28 2022 11:13 utc | 223
@ Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 11:04 utc | 218 and ALL others intentionally or otherwise derailing the topic thread …
Please scroll up to the top of ^ this page ^ …
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-210
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡The FSB of the Russian Federation prevented the preparation of a series of terrorist attacks in places of mass stay of citizens on the territory of the Zaporozhye region.
In Melitopol, three citizens of Ukraine were detained on their way to the place of laying an explosive device in one of the city’s markets. Two of them, previously convicted of committing serious crimes on the territory of Ukraine, confessed that they acted on the instructions of the Ukrainian special services in order to intimidate the civilian population of the Zaporozhye region.
Components of an improvised explosive device based on plastite and electric detonators were confiscated in the car of the detainees, two pistols with ammunition, a grenade with a fuse were found in the apartments.
The defendants were taken to Moscow, where criminal cases were initiated against them for preparing terrorist attacks and illegal trafficking in firearms, ammunition, explosives and explosive devices.
Ahem is the word. I have been saying it politely to date.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:11 utc | 222
I should have been oirish then I could have written it wit an oirish accent.
But back to Ukraine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oH1Ny7LeGS0 Pat Lancaster on Rostov waliking around asking people there what they think.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:26 utc | 226
I (‘The Right People’) have written an extensive article about Russian helis, commenting on the myth that they “drop like flies” in Uraine, the weaponry used and the future, I hope you like it:
Russian Helicopters: Survival, Armament and the Future
The Right People ( TL Channel)November 27, 2022
Russian helicopters have proven to be incredible machines, with great survivability and crew protection.
As this is an article about helicopters, comparisons with Vietnam and Soviet Afghanistan are almost inevitable on both “sides of the argument” so to speak. These comparisons I think are really a bit silly, for one thing the technology is clearly different, both in the attack and defence of the vehicles, as well as the geography and therefore the use of it for protection and attack to/from the helicopters.
In the Soviet conflict in Afghanistan 333 helicopters were lost.
In Vietnam just over 5600 American helicopters were lost.
On the other hand, it must be taken into account …
Boohmheist #48
“we will know when things are really coming apart when the MSM begins to howl about Russian genocide”
I have been wondering how the West were going to spin Russia stunningly snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. I assumed there would be howls that Russia had cheated somehow, perhaps by sneakily and wickedly using live ammunition, etc. But claims of genocide are much more likely.
Posted by: Tim Glover | Nov 28 2022 11:33 utc | 228
To answer 12, what happened to journalistic integrity.
A short story, 10 yrs after my fathers death i heard from my mother what he did for a living before we were born; he ran a magazine as a front for MI6. Traveling all over the world, working with CIA etc etc , this was in the times of Burgess and Blunt , he also worked on a Hungarian dictionary, again as part of the wests war against the soviet union . ….
As you can imagine in the 60 yrs since then the control of the press in the west is total. It is an arm of the establishment just as is the military. Now its possible ,but doubtful thta there are journalists who are not SS, but if so they are spread very thin. Id say its a job qualification. So i think it fair to say all the rags are MI6 operations. All, online , off line.etc
And more than that the British establishment has excelled in the art of spying, poison double operatives so much so that some organisation like the IRB and probably IRA etc were totally infiltrated by sleepers at the highest levels .after all it makes perfect sense. Get your guys in charge then you can negotiate peace….. and of course its pretty obvious that all the western governments are controlled again look at Ireland, all of the leaders and prospective leaders work for the same organisation. Which my father worked for.
Posted by: WRFB | Nov 28 2022 11:38 utc | 229
John Helmer offers some interesting prognoses, including a future DMZ or (UDZ) of 100 Kms West of the Dniepr:
http://johnhelmer.org/ukraine-armistice-how-the-udz-of-2023-will-separate-the-armies-like-the-korean-dmz-of-1953/
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 11:39 utc | 230
please do share
Posted by: abrogard | Nov 28 2022 9:59 utc | 204
Sure.
https://sta.sh/08pp7jtqvcp “Putin’s list of death: Has gathered names of those to kill”
https://sta.sh/02di6hdj2fox “The foreign mercenaries out to murder Zelensky” – “Putin’s new move – deploying foreign mercenaries” “Help Ukraine!”
https://sta.sh/01m738wx4ee1 “The hunt for Putin’s luxury yachts” “This is how similar Putin is to Stalin”
https://sta.sh/01x5mu13a851 “Putin’s devious plan – The lieutenant colonel – “This war could last forever”
https://sta.sh/01pcbg6upegi “Putin’s soldiers refuse to follow orders” – “Shot down own plane by mistake” – “The chasm in the Kremlin” – “Putin’s soldiers using Swedish-made rifle scopes!”
https://sta.sh/04n8zgyuw19 “Secret German eavesdropping unmasks Putin’s executioners” – “Talks of murders” – “The chilling orders of the Russian command”
https://sta.sh/0h7us3kphse “Putin’s horrible weapons – this is how they work” – “At this point, Putin’s war will become hell on Earth”
https://sta.sh/0ne67mlmx7y “Putin’s deadlock – contemplating peace or nuclear weapons” – “The nuclear plant in Ukraine could become a new Fukushima”
https://sta.sh/0b4s8w2uxrd “How Putin became a super spy” – “Infidelity” – “Helped terror groups” – “Specialist in torture”
The list goes on.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 11:39 utc | 231
@ Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:26 utc | 226
I should have been oirish then I could have written it wit an oirish accent.
LOL 😉
&
Translated from Original Russian:
Statement by Captain Filiponenko I.M., official representative of the People’s Militia of the LNR, on the situation on 27.11.2022.
📈The enemy suffered heavy losses in manpower and military equipment in the past 24 hours during active offensive actions of the LNR People’s Militia units. Destroyed:
➖ up to 85 personnel;
➖3 tanks;
➖6 armored personnel carriers;
➖ two artillery pieces;
➖1 unmanned aerial vehicle;
➖20 units of special automotive equipment.
‼️The enemy continues shelling civilian infrastructure in LNR settlements.
▪️In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian armed formations shelled the settlements of Svatove and Nyzhnya Duvanka with 155-mm artillery, firing six shells.
⚡️ As a result of the shelling:
➖ a woman born in 1953 was wounded in Svatovo settlement, 16 residential houses, 7 outbuildings, the Sunduchok store, a gas pipeline and a power transmission line were damaged;
➖ in Nizhnyaya Duvanka settlement, a man born in 1986 was wounded and one residential house was destroyed.
▶️ Peaceful life is being restored in the territories of the Luhansk People’s Republic liberated from Ukrainian nationalists:
▫️The LNR People’s Militia’s engineer-sapper units continue demining.
❗️ During November 26, they cleared more than 8 hectares of territory from explosive objects left by Ukrainian nationalists in the areas of Gorodyshche and Kraydiyane of Starobelsk district.
⭐️ The forces of the National People’s Republic of China together with public organizations are delivering humanitarian aid to the residents of these areas.
▫️The volunteers of the Russian Humanitarian Mission, with the support of the 2nd Army Corps, delivered humanitarian aid to the residents of Nizhnee and Orekhovo settlements.
▫️ In addition, as part of the project “Everything for Victory!” volunteers of the People’s Front and Deputy Chairman of the Irkutsk Region Government Sergey Dovgaluk delivered humanitarian aid for mobilized soldiers from Irkutsk.
🇺🇸🇬🇷🇷🇺🇺🇦The Pentagon will deploy at least eight MQ-9 Reaper strike UAVs at the Larissa airbase in Greece.
Few days ago,”US offered Greece to send the S-300 and Tor-M1 air defense systems to Ukraine in exchange for similar NATO systems”-Pentapostagma
Athens has reportedly accepted the American proposal,according to the media,that could trigger a radical change in the air defense structure of the Greek Army, which is becoming crucial amid Turkish threats and the in-depth integration of UAVs into provocations against Greece.
Earlier, the proposal of the Ukrainian military to get Greek air defense systems in exchange for their maintenance in Ukrainian facilities was rejected for two main reasons. Firstly, because Russia still maintains the End User license agreement, which means that Greece cannot export this industrial product to a third party without Moscow’s permission. Moreover, it is not at all clear whether Ukrainian factories are able to undertake such a project while the country is still at war.
Secondly, Greece cannot create gaps in its air defenses, especially if there is no possibility to replace them immediately. These arguments have also been fully understood by the Americans.
Through the FMF (Foreign Military Financing) financial tool, in addition to American systems that will replace Russian weapons, the gradual renewal of the helicopter fleet of the Greek Army, the Air Force and the Navy may also follow amid the military cooperation between the two countries, Greek sources report.
It is not clear which systems will replace the Russian-made anti-aircraft systems in Greece. Athens is being pushed to get rid of Russian air defense systems due to the impossibility of their normal maintenance under the conditions of sanctions imposed against Russia.
This is not for the first time, the United States has used a similar scheme of arms supplies to Ukraine. Soviet and Russian weapons are bought or exchanged for Western systems, and the purchased Russian weapons are delivered to Kiev. With a high degree of probability, the US deal with Greece will be a success, because being a member of NATO, Athens will accept any conditions laid down by Washington.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/29615
Posted by: Down South | Nov 28 2022 11:44 utc | 233
Translated FYI & otherwise inaccessible, from original Russian:
Official Federal Customs Service of Russia Statement:
On the customs clearance of goods for the needs of the Russian Federal Security Service
✅ In order to speed up and simplify the release of goods for the needs of the USO, the Federal Customs Service of Russia has organized operational interaction with the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is responsible for coordinating deliveries for the needs of the USO. For the delivery of such goods, it is possible to contact the Ministry of Defense, the multichannel tel. x (xxx) xxx xx xx (round the clock).
The information about the alleged intensification of customs control measures when goods for the needs of the Defense Forces are imported into Russia which is published in a number of Telegram-channels is not true. The issues of prompt clearance of such goods are under the personal control of the FCS leadership.
❕ In the event of delays in the clearance of these goods (for example, due to incomplete documents, errors in the declaration, etc.), please send a request to the FCS of Russia chatbot. In it, please specify the customs authority and the number of the declaration. The moderators of the channel will quickly provide feedback.
You can also contact the 24-hour customs hotlines.
Paul McGrory | Nov 28 2022 11:04 utc | 218 “I am an Australian mate”
Keep talking/writing. Any Australian who finds their way out of the matrix to here is worth conversing with. Looking at wot you wrote though, you’re very much a virgin when it comes to the drunken comments I put up here.
What do you think of downer. What is his history. What about Abbott and the destruction of Hanson? Murdoch and Whitlam National interest. Do you understand national interest. How about gag orders.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 11:52 utc | 235
@ Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 11:39 utc | 229
Thank you.
Have been describing likelihood of such, specifically pseudo-DMZs, post future major offensive operations, for awhile now.
According to IntelSlava, Andreevka has fallen; progress in the Bakhmut region is strong. Tactically or even strategically this is an important victory for Russia.
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 28 2022 12:01 utc | 237
Some oirish
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/GgZ-vY2jsqg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggmCVqr7fV
The oirish
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 12:07 utc | 238
@Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 8:31 utc | 185
Many thanks for posting General Kirillov’s bio weapons briefing. It is a pity details like this are not widely known. “Depraved indifference” does not come close to describing the US bioweapons activity.
Posted by: cirsium | Nov 28 2022 12:08 utc | 239
@ Posted by: Outraged | Nov 28 2022 11:55 utc | 235
” [I] Have been describing likelihood of such, specifically pseudo-DMZs, post future major offensive operations, for awhile now.”
Interesting, because this was the first i read of it. I hadn’t imagined or conceived the possibility of such a drastic solution myself. May i ask where you got that idea from, or whether you imagined it to the same extent as described in the article?
The reason i ask, is the article came with a curious footnote with some sting in the tail… I would not be surprised to see Helmer’s article credited and linked here in the next few days’ Ukraine posts. MoA has always behaved very ethically in this regard. It doesn’t appear Mr Helmer sees others in the same light:
“[*]There was plagiarism on this topic by Pepe Escobar in a recent piece he entitled “Electric War” in which concepts, terms and references were cribbed from Dances with Bears. Following republication of Escobar by Ron Unz of The Unz Review and Andrei Raevsky of The Saker, they have refused to acknowledge the evidence of the plagiarism.”
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 12:16 utc | 241
Ukraine was planning to seize Crimea by 2023:
Mikhail Zabrodsky, former commander of the Ukrainian Airborne Troops, told The Economist that “an operation to retake Crimea is not just possible – it was planned by 2023”.
He added that if the command had published all the plans in the media, they would have achieved nothing.
See:
A Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be bloody and difficult – The Economist
And Western support can hardly be relied on.
Political leaders in Kyiv privately concede that retaking Donbas and Crimea is more complicated than issuing public slogans. They accept that a large proportion of the population there remain hostile towards Kyiv. The operations in Kharkiv and Kherson(WTF ?), for example, were helped by a network of sympathetic informers. The opposite will be the case in the areas of Donbas held by Russia since 2014, and from where most of those sympathetic to Kyiv have long ago fled or been chased out. An operation to retake Crimea would probably encounter partisan resistance from pro-Russians. It is far from clear that Ukraine could even count on more sympathetic parts of the population, such as the Crimean Tatar community, many of whom have by now accepted Russian rule as a fait accompli.
Giyane | Nov 28 2022 12:10 utc | 239
I had to laugh at Ukrainium. Though looking at stats it seems a fragile material. Sometimes I feel bad saying something like that, but then I think of MH17 and think of this https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/?amp=1
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 12:27 utc | 243
Random thought.
In the opening days of the war there were thoughts about how Western supplies could even make it into Ukrainian hands.
As far as I recall Russia even warned that any Western weapon transports would be targeted.
If I am not mistaken then Russia lied and NATO called their bluff. As of now, and correct me if I’m wrong, none of the cockroaches supplying the Nazi stormtroopers have gone to the fiery hell they deserve.
Why?
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 12:27 utc | 244
@ Peter AU1 222
Ahem
Look, I hate weapons, war, politics, history, killing , lying, theft, torture and hypocrisy.
If any of you oldtimer barflies can point me to a blog that deals purely with ethics , art and religion , and which is not completely subservient to Atlantacist propaganda. When I get bored , I say bad things. I don’t know which is the worser, Atlantacist fantasy war or anti-Atlantacist fantasy war.
As a child of parents who lived through WW2, I don’t think war solves anything.
I’m only interested in identifying what is right and wrong. If the US created this problem in the Ukraine by sponsoring Nazism, that is crime for the United Nations to solve. If they can’t solve it, some other institution needs to be set up to solve it.
Just killing people on an industrial scale for no valid reason , just because they have the capability to kill people is imho totally wrong.
Is there another blog that addresses the real problem rather than wall to wall war porn?
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 28 2022 12:33 utc | 245
⚡️Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine
(28 November 2022)
◽️Russian Federation Armed Forces continue the special military operation.
💥As a result of a high-precision weaponry strike by the Russian Air Force on the concentration of manpower and military equipment of the AFU 17th Tank Brigade near Moiseyevka station (Dnepropetrovsk region), eight armoured vehicles and five motor vehicles have been destroyed while they were being loaded onto railroad transport. In addition, more than 100 Ukrainian servicemen have been eliminated.
◽️In Kupyansk direction, the enemy, using 2 company tactical groups, attempted to attack Russian positions in the direction of Kuzyomovka (Lugansk People’s Republic). The attacks have been repulsed and the AFU units have been pushed back to their initial positions near Berestovoye (Kharkov region). More than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, 1 tank, 2 armoured personnel carriers and 1 pickup truck have been eliminated.
💥In Krasniy Liman direction, towards Serebryanskoye Lesnichestvo (Lugansk People’s Republic), Russian artillery fire has struck two AFU company tactical groups that were advancing towards Chervonaya Dibrova. The firepower’s operation has resulted in scattering the enemy units. More than 30 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 armoured vehicles and 3 pick-up trucks have been eliminated.
◽️In Artyomovsk direction, the enemy with 4 AFU company tactical groups tried to counterattack towards Belogorovka, Bakhmutskoye, Yakovlevka and Ivangrad (Donetsk People’s Republic) in order to stop the advance of Russian troops. Firepower’s operation has resulted in halting and scattering the enemy units. Over 80 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, 1 tank, 3 armoured fighting vehicles, 2 pickups and 1 motor vehicle have been eliminated.
💥In the South Donetsk direction, 2 counterattacks by the AFU have been repelled by artillery strikes and actions of Russian assault groups near Neskuchnoye and Oktyabr (Donetsk People’s Republic). More than 50 Ukrainian servicemen, 2 armoured fighting vehicles and 1 infantry fighting vehicle have been eliminated.
💥Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised eight AFU strongpoints near Sinkovka, Kruglyakovka (Kharkov region), Pobeda, Vodyanoye, Prechistovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Dudchany, Kazatskoye and Tokarevka (Kherson region), and 57 artillery units at firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 124 areas. 2 munition depots of the AFU have been destroyed near Terny and Kurdyumovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
💥The Russian anti-aircraft defence means have shot down 7 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) near Zhitlovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Soledar, Volnovakha (Donetsk People’s Republic), Skadovsk and Chaplinka (Kherson region).
Moreover, 2 HARM anti-radar missiles have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).
📊 In total, 333 airplanes and 177 helicopters, 2,572 unmanned aerial vehicles, 390 air defence missile systems, 6,866 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 904 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,624 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 7,395 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
Posted by: Summary | Nov 28 2022 12:35 utc | 246
@ Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 12:16 utc | 240
It is an obvious rational outcome of Major Ops. Have posted a number of notional scratch OP Plans re the eventual RF Theater major maneuver offensive … based on personal planning knowledge/experience … see: search posts, top right MOA front page.
Most recent as below – Outraged | Nov 20 2022 20:46 utc | 93 :
IF RF chooses to go full Zhukov, or maybe when, IF, then ‘one’ possibility would be the following scribbling, straight from the back of a beer coaster …
(1)Gotta go Nth, seal the N & W Ukrainian borders, deploy significant flank protection forces re any maneuver capable AFU units. Then drive S & siege Odessa from a N-S axis. Detach a reinforced Brigade to support Transnistria, subsequent referendum re RF. Further reinforcement subsequent. Further deploy multiple minor mobile detachments as progressed for flank protection N, lesser degree to w, blocking detachments re on main routes beyond arty tube indirect fire range re large towns/cities. Await imminent surrender. Under current conditions prior to onset of winter ground ‘freeze’, limited to necessity of using paved & sealed roads/raillines. High risk due to likelihood of pre-positioned ambushes along known approaches & choke points, severing of MSRs, isolation & destruction of detachments from main body.
(2)Realistically: As above, but prepare for onset of winter ground ‘freeze’, advance on multiple broad frontages off & on roads/rail-lines offering flanking and mutual support across central & Northern Ukraine on an E-W axis of advance. Engage & destroy any capable threatening AFU forces capable of maneuver. Bypass minor or immobile AFU. Detach small reconnaissance units to screen & monitor smaller towns or immobile AFU elements. Isolate avenues of approach/egress of larger towns/cites and detach sufficient forces to isolate/contain. Seal N & W borders of Ukraine, maintain multiple maneuver reserve groups in central, northern & western Ukraine.
Detach minor mobile maneuver units deep patrol & sweep from fixed, defensive/fire support bases, offering mutual & ready reaction support.
Mobile border detachments establish defensive/supply points along the N & W borders. Prepare to transform to subsequent ‘peacekeepers’ re a N & W pseudo DMZ.
Sieged/encircled/blocked towns & cities will surrender quickly given no resources no life sustaining infrastructure.
(3)Optionally: Main Force modest frontage axis of advance from N on E-W access aside Polish border, detach 40% of direct/indirect Heavy combined arms units, primary BTGs, maneuver units S, on N-S axis of advance & seal the right bank of Dnieper river, cutting all MSRs a& possibility of retreat, denying support & reinforcement to trapped and isolated AFU forces on left bank of Dnieper, being pinned by modest RF forces in situ in contact E of current AFU positions all along FEBA. Surrounded, no Logistics support, no reinforcement, no medivac, under direct attack from all directions, & under indirect arty/rocket fire on two fronts, under relentless air attack by RF attack Helos & Ground attack fast movers, Any remaining AD rapidly annihilated. On a death ride to Valhalla in massive numbers unless promptly surrender. No prospect of reforming under fire or forming up for a contest river assault crossing under fire in contact.
Main force enters central Ukraine and detaches Maneuver units to patrol, sweep & raid, all AFU units & infrastructure, that do not immediately surrender when contacted by recon screen.
Upon collapse/surrender of majority of AFU on left bank, proceed as for (2) above. (See: OpPlan & execution by Israeli Forces at Conclusion of Yom Kippur War ’73. Very applicable scenario (substitute Suez Canal for Dnieper River, RF is Israel, AFU is a shattered immobile attritted Egyptian Army..
Assist ‘Liberated’ civil populace to create new Neutral Constitution lawfully permitting pseudo DMZ & Peacekeepers. No standing military permitted, no alliances nor treaties.
Pack up major formations & go home.
Watch Empire have apoplectic fit.
Just sayin’.
Peace
Noticeable that Russia managed to hit the AFU train at a period when it was trying to load onboard tanks, armored vehicles and troops.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 28 2022 12:38 utc | 248
Rickstrees@gmail.com | Nov 28 2022 10:38 utc | 211
Answered in the not ukraine: week in review thread @144
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 28 2022 12:38 utc | 249
Alternate lifestyles for consenting adults is legal. The issue is trying to normalize it by teaching it to little children in the classroom. That is pure deviance. What a an extremely small portion of the population does sexually, on their time, thats their business. Just keep out of the classroom, adults sexually grooming children for adulthood should be illegal.
Many positions of power once the realm of the ‘tribal white’ men are now full of ‘tribal’ or ‘tribal approved’ transgender people. Again, a minority ruling the majority.
Looking forward to Zman dressed in drag reading to the children of UN diplomats….. that’s a win, right.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 28 2022 12:52 utc | 250
@ Peter AU1 | Nov 28 2022 12:07 utc | 237
Regularly check up on Mick’s & Claire’s speeches re Ukraine/RF/EU … helps keep me sane. (your 2nd link is dead)
Northern Ireland will eventually be re-united with the Republic of Ireland, demographics, even if simply re UK(protestant) economic collapse & abandonment. IMV
Ireland will be whole again. “Óró! ‘Sé do bheatha ‘bhaile” Youtube. Runtime: 1m22s.
@ Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 12:27 utc | 243
Random answer to your random thought…
1- I suspect Russia has limited surveillance capabilities which are likely stretched and effectively countered in the far West of Ukraine. This will produce some leakage of the tracking of all incoming assets.
2- Once tracked, these assets need to be targeted and destroyed. Since Ukraine still has working Air Defences all across the country, it means using the Air Force is out of the question, meaning it is up to stand off munitions. There is plenty of evidence of these being implemented for that purpose, however it appears the scale of imports has largely outnumbered that of the interceptions.
The likely cause comes down to number 1 as already mentioned, and the cost/benefit ratio of using limited resources for number 2, meaning Russia likely has many more cheaper munitions and personnel to do the destruction closer to the front line than cruise missiles. I am not sure how cruise missiles would perform on moving targets like trains, and once parked, even the best overhead surveillance often needs humans on the ground for targeting verification… unless you are Nato and can count on a global PR machine of omission and obfuscation are are free to bomb weddings, funerals an shopping malls at no cost, which has not been in Russia’s MO in Ukraine so far.
Not ideal, but the lesser of two evils, also considering all the potential implications of escalation closer to Nato borders, as well as avoiding the potential of collateral damage, as it is likely these assets are being smuggled under civilian cover and deliberately stored in highly populated areas before reaching the front line precisely to avoid interception.
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 12:55 utc | 252
… these assets are being smuggled under civilian cover and deliberately stored in highly populated areas before reaching the front line precisely to avoid interception.
That has been the case since early days.
Q: Why did Russia lose nine months of phony war?
A: In order to grind down the forces of under equipped, under manned Donbass Republics.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 28 2022 13:00 utc | 254
@Giyane 244
If you hate politics and history I don’t know how you qualify as a thinking human being.
I don’t even know how you function in society.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:12 utc | 255
@ Greg Galloway | Nov 28 2022 13:00 utc | 253
Really ? Phony War ? RF Lose ? Sigh …
Tell that to the Ukrainian families of between minimum ~100,000 KIA + ~210,000 WIA + ~90,000+(WIA>KIA) + ~30,000+ MiA>KIA = ~430,000+
&
Realistically up to ~387,000 KIA, thence ~1,161,000 WIA(~70% irrecoverable(cannot return to combat duties)). 🙁
Forcibly conscripted in 9(?) mobilization waves now, 18(10)-60 years of age, at the barrel of an AK then sent to their fate, OUN-Nazi detachments to make sure from the rear. After the original 600,000 regular AFU ceased to exist ~5-6 months ago.
@253
Phony? Have you seen any of the images of torn apart bodies on telegram? When infantry is shredded by artillery and tank crews are roasted alive, how phony is that?
Russia including the Donbass is fighting the whole conventional power of NATO and they are doing pretty well.
From my grandmother I know that when the Germans invaded in WOII, some of their soldiers had an axe but no rifle, there were some tanks but also a lot of horse-drawn carriages and German soldiers stole boots of slain adversaries because they themselves hadn’t any. Thinking that every army will be or should be armed to the teeth with up-to-date weaponry and gadgets is something for children, always far from reality…
Posted by: Anthony | Nov 28 2022 13:18 utc | 257
Seriously I thought that was funny. Giyane wants a blog discussing “the real issues” without mentioning politics and history.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:24 utc | 258
Didn’t you all know that Angela Merkel is Hitler daughter?
https://en.protothema.gr/top-secret-merkels-murky-geneology-and-the-stasi-files/
Posted by: gimmeabreak | Nov 28 2022 13:30 utc | 259
@ Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 12:55 utc | 251
Air Force is out of the question
RF has total air dominance over the entire Theater. Pilots are expensive, so are the aircraft, compared to missiles/drones. They operate freely with deadly effect up to ~30-35 Kms beyond the FEBA all along the line.
RuAF do not risk strikes deeper into Ukraine ’cause remnant AFU AD systems are dispersed in concealed/camouflaged ambush positions throughout Theater, Detection radars OFF. US/NATO surveillance assets detect said RuAF strike aircraft/Helos track & likely target & pass targeting data directly to AFU AD battery, which activates tracking/targeting radar & launches cold in an instant, high probability of instant ambush kill. A few were lost in the first few days post Feb2422 this way, so tasking changed.
Cost benefit ratio re RuAF harassment/interdiction strikes much beyond FEBA, as compared to missiles/drones, highly negative.
Yet, when Major offensive Ops commence will be very active as ground forces advance, providing cover, targeting & prompt direct air-support up to ~30-35K beyond front line advance & recon screen.
From Paul Greenwood on Nov 27: “Douglas McGregor believes Germany is seeking to offload the US hegemony – we shall see. Already in Leipzig demonstrators shout “Ami Go Home” and that is not an isolated sentiment.”
I’ve heard McGregor say that and I’ve seen the video on the Leipzig demonstration. I’d like to know more about alleged German resentment towards the US. I don’t find much in the news on the topic. Is there a realistic chance that Germany would exit NATO? That sounds a bit far-fetched, but I’ve come across this assertion in several places. One part of me affirms that anti-American sentiment is a real feature of German life, but another voice tells me that maybe it’s not as widespread or as deep as the pro-Russia camp would want it.
Posted by: Jimmy Scungilli | Nov 28 2022 13:45 utc | 261
@ Jimmy Scungilli | Nov 28 2022 13:45 utc | 260
Over half of Germans oppose boosting military aid for Ukraine – WaPo poll
Soaring energy prices driven by sanctions on Russian oil and gas are not even the primary factor behind German reluctance to help Ukraine in the ongoing conflict, according to a recent poll conducted by the Washington Post.
Instead, the outlet found that a general aversion to military intervention – which took hold after the country’s defeat in World War II is behind the mood.
While the vast majority — 91% — of German respondents expressed sympathy for Ukraine, more than half (54%) said their country was doing either enough (37%) or too much (17%) in terms of military and humanitarian aid, according to the poll.
…
While about a third of those polled opposed each policy, those who expressed support were not particularly enthusiastic, and there was a stark divide in sentiment between the formerly-socialist East and the West of the country. More than half (52%) of East Germans said they opposed increased military aid to Ukraine, compared to just 27% of West Germans.
…
Timing is interesting winter is here and the ground is freezing!
China is supplying weapons to Russia now! LOL
Russia has deployed a real military “air bridge” to China, – Defence Express.
Flight tracking services record regular flights of Volga-Dnepr’s An-124 Ruslan heavy transport aircraft to China. Aircraft do not always turn on a transponder (a device for detecting the board by the controller), which complicates their tracking. In total, we are talking about a dozen flights over the past week.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
‼️🇷🇺🇨🇳 Россия развернула настоящий военный “воздушный мост” в Китай, – Defence Express. ▪️Сервисы отслеживания полетов фиксируют постоянные рейсы тяжелых транспортных самолетов Ан-124 “Руслан” компании “Волга-Днепр” в Китай. Самолеты не всегда включают транспондер (устройство для обнаружения…
t.me
Posted by: Peace | Nov 28 2022 13:51 utc | 263
Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 12:55 utc | 251
I’m sure you’re right… and forgive my frustration. Still I question the logic.
The West would find a way to paint Russia as a mass murderer even if all it did was shoot down missiles the genocidal Nazi scum were throwing at Donbass. They’ve managed to convince people that Russia blew up their own pipeline and it’s shelling a nuclear power plant under their own control. They could detonate a tactical nuke in the center of Donetsk and the assholes of the West would still be convinced Russia did it.
The slentrian cliché is that “it’s just the leaders, it’s not the people.” I DISAGREE.
The people of the Ukraine are brainwashed scum worshipping a Nazi mass murderer as a national hero. They’re so stupid they don’t see the cognitive dissonance in a Nazi Jew leading them into battle.
The people of the Ukraine are Enemy. If you forgive me for a horrific oversimplification of Marxist theory, there are only two classes in society. There are workers and there are parasites. If you are a parasite you do not deserve to live – quote Lenin, “one who does not work shall not eat.” If you’re a Ukrainian worker and you have not rebelled against the fascist tyranny, you are actively supporting a state responsible for the mass murder in the Donbass, the massacre in Odessa and countless other crimes against humanity.
I’m an industrial worker. If the hot war against Russia were to come to Sweden and I didn’t get out but kept nourishing our corrupt state with the fruits of my labor I would have no right to complain if a FAB-500 found its way up my arse.
Bomb the railroads. Flatten Kiev and Lviv to the ground. There should not be brick upon brick within ten miles of Stepan Bandera avenue.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:56 utc | 264
“the real issues” without mentioning politics and history
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:24 utc | 257
oh. I know that one.
Death.
Izza mystery.
Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 28 2022 13:59 utc | 265
@ tichy 257
We’re not in WW2,we’re in a totally interlocked global trading system and thermal issue imho is that USUKIS still think they can break their own rules with impunity, and Russia thinks it can punish them with war.
Both of them want to continue to trade, and co-exist as normal I spite of posturing their military torsos that nobody is interested in.
There will be a train from China bringing goods to Europe. Is war a suitable means of negotiating a trade deal in 2022?
Oil will continue to be used for many things. Food will continue to be eaten.
Is war really a suitable means of negotiating the division of resources in 2022?
In order for war to happen , the West has had to reverse everything it stands for, and it will 100% need to re-establish its credibility as trusted and responsible negotiator after this ridiculous posturing of sanctions and refusal to take other national interests into consideration.
How can the West continue to function when it is continuing to dredge up old conflicts from.the past, thankfully long forgotten, schisms and divisions where it can stick its evil wedges in?
What’s the point of this charade of history and political lying, if another end of the day the truth will be established that the West is lying and dividing.
The truth is, in my humble opinion , that the Muslims who are sent to mediate between the petty politics of greedy men and women, and direct our attention to the next life, are fully occupied with the same worldly game .
I don’t cate about your sex life. Not my problem , not my bum pain. I care about the absence of rational thinking in 2022, which means we are re-living the stink of World War while totally ignoring global warming.
OK some bugs will survive nuclear or climate Armaggedon. Is that exciting?
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 28 2022 14:11 utc | 266
@Giyane mouth diarrhea. “we are re-living the stink of World War while totally ignoring global warming” what the everlasting does that even mean.
Everyone else, this looks like a pretty good movie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH_nbsvch0g
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 14:17 utc | 267
@ Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:56 utc | 262
I am sure the vast majority of ‘the people of Ukraine’ wish for this all to be over and have little desire for war, least of all Russia, which is why 70% of them voted for you know whom, hoping he could negotiate with Russia as he promised them, just as they voted for the guy before him hoping for the exact same outcome: peace.
We all know why that peace never came, and it is largely due to the nefarious plans of the few powerful people exerting influence over Ukraine for personal and geopolitical gain; real of perceived, is unfortunately irrelevant, for now. I would say the extent to which this calculation either pays off or fails is the best chance for this all to end. The longer the stalemate lasts, with belief in success remaining in both sides, the longer the suffering will continue.
While i am sure many share your frustration, emotional outbursts serve little purpose in providing understanding and offering practical solutions.
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 14:19 utc | 268
While i am sure many share your frustration, emotional outbursts serve little purpose in providing understanding and offering practical solutions.
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 14:19 utc | 266
It’s not really meant as an emotional outburst, it’s a crude and cold suggestion.
Russia treats the Ukraine war as if the Ukrainians are their brothers. They aren’t. They are fascist murderers.
If they really wanted peace they would have rebelled by now just like Donbass and Crimea did, but they don’t hate the Nazi thugs governing them as much as they hate the Russians.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 14:24 utc | 269
Interesting report from Gilbert Doctorow relaying Russian TV debates – from b’s reading list of the week. Together with the recent tribute to Castro and the speeches surrounding Lavrov’s visit in Africa of a couple of months ago, this might indicate an evolution in the thinking of Russian leadership:
“we (Russia) don’t think we have an ideology, but indeed we do – it is the ideology of the liberal bourgeoisie. In that sense we are much closer to our enemies, and especially to America’s Republican Party, than we are to those countries who are now our friends: socialist India, Communist China and Vietnam and North Korea. Our friends are all on the Left, while our enemies are conservatives like ourselves. He went on to say that our friends are sticking by us though all of them remember how we betrayed them in 1991 when Yeltsin completely severed ties with Cuba, for example. And even today we continue to observe sanctions on North Korea though doing so looks foolish.”
Posted by: htyul | Nov 28 2022 14:27 utc | 270
I think this actually a strategy from the Trudeau administration/regime (whatever you prefer) working together with the help of the Russian embassy in Canada to tackle some of the entrenched foreign policy bureaucracy, which is where these decisions are originating. If you look at the provincial leaders in Canada, they are much more conservative in social outlook than those sitting at desks in the unelected federal foreign policy department. It appears those same bureaucrats are also instigating a war/unrest with Russia and that has created an opportunity to take action about it. Well, it’s created pressure/support (whatever you prefer) from the Kremlin. My 2 cents.
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Nov 27 2022 21:27 utc
(I generally don’t copy complete posts, but no reply I could come up with could capture the twists in this tale.)
HUH??!!?? Has Bruised Northerner been “bodysnatched”? (Really)
Anyway:
Russia and Putin know the WEF is their enemy as much as or more than US/ZATO. And so naturally, some rebel faction in the Russian bureaucracy engages in a secret strategy (which is also somehow discernible by the public) with Canadian bureaucrats who are directed by the two most rabid WEF/woke minions in the country.
To reduce wokeness in Canada on direction from the WOKE Trudy Cabal?
Or maybe not.
/end sarc
This needs a fuller explanation of WHY and HOW this is happening. Looks more like a poor rendition of something that escaped prematurely from some spy agency or “NGO” nudge unit.
Please elucidate.
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 28 2022 14:31 utc | 272
A very intereting article from John Helmer today at Dances with Bears
http://johnhelmer.net/ukraine-armistice-how-the-udz-of-2023-will-separate-the-armies-like-the-korean-dmz-of-1953/#more-70281
Helmer gives a detailed explanation of what he describes as the new Russian way of making war. A fascinating article with maps and the extraordinary conclusion, which will excite some of our posters, that Russia is planning to build a de-militarised and virtually uninhabited ‘buffer zone’ about 100km deep in central Ukraine.
The shock in the article comes at the end where Helmer, an Aussie, accuses Pepe Escobar of plagiarism. An Australian trying to start a fight on the internet! Unbelievable.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 28 2022 14:47 utc | 273
Old canadian @ 270
Thank you for the reply and the attention to what I posted. This site is overflowing with elucidation and so I prefer not to contribute to it. My two cents is my two cents. So I’ll just add this recent research on mortgages from the Bank of Canada, with a pretty yellow and blue graph it it to show what’s trending.
“Overall, our results suggest that a high share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments will have reached their trigger rate by 2023. However, this does not necessarily imply that all of these households will have had to increase their regular payments as a result. Some borrowers may have made prepayments on their mortgage, refinanced their mortgage, switched to a fixed-rate mortgage, or applied other changes since origination that would prevent a payment increase. In addition, households that took out variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages before the pandemic have likely paid down additional principal relative to their amortization schedule with the decrease in variable rates observed in 2020–21. As a result, our estimates should be interpreted as an upper bound of the impact of trigger rates on households.
That being said, for some borrowers, reaching their trigger rate could result in an unexpected increase in mortgage payments. These borrowers may need to adjust spending or use savings to meet their higher debt obligations. Households that took on a 30-year mortgage during the COVID‑19 pandemic when variable rates were extremely low will generally see a larger increase in mortgage payments. The size of these increases will depend on how short-term interest rates evolve in the future.”
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Nov 28 2022 14:52 utc | 274
Didn’t you all know that Angela Merkel is Hitler daughter?
Posted by: gimmeabreak | Nov 28 2022 13:30 utc
Probably not, as most MoA readers know. BUT…
Merkel shared something with Trudeau… they are both WEF “Leaders” Merkel was officially a grad in 1993.
https://www.weforum.org/people/angela-merkel Funny how this bio doesn’t include her WEF Leader “graduation”…
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/WEF/Global_Leaders_for_Tomorrow/1993
Or for those wanting a deeper rabbit hole, you can DOWNLOAD (there doesn’t appear to be a “view HTML” option) spreadsheets listing nearly all WEF “Leaders” of one stripe or another.
https://maloneinstitute.org/
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 28 2022 14:52 utc | 275
I was so busy not elucidating that I forgot the link.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-analytical-notes-2022-19/
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Nov 28 2022 14:53 utc | 276
Thx for sharing, but sometimes it pays to scroll up a few times and catch up on the conversation.. 🙂
As for Australians ‘starting a fight on the internet’, i believe there is a gentleman currently being held in Belmarsh who can hold the top prize for that honour ;
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 14:55 utc | 278
@ Posted by: bevin | Nov 28 2022 14:47 utc | 271
for my last comment…
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 28 2022 14:56 utc | 279
This site is overflowing with elucidation and so I prefer not to contribute to it. My two cents is my two cents.
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Nov 28 2022 14:52 utc
Nice change of subject. Just like Trudeau and Freeland at the Inquiry.
“look SQUIRREL” doesn’t work so well at MoA.
You dropped the “bomb” that rebel (or not) Russian Embassy staff in Canada are secretly working with Cdn (foreign affairs?, embassy?) staff about reducing wokism in Canada on direct instruction of the WOKE Trudeau Cabal.
That is not just a “brush off and change subject” sorta statement.
Or MoA readers can take this as disinformation (a polite term for LIE) without substantive sources. This should impact negatively on the veracity of other statements you (assuming it really is you) make.
Your choice.
As for your BoC “mortgage” revelations… well DUH. Significant interest hikes ALWAYS put marginal borrowers underwater. It’s a feature, not a bug.
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 28 2022 15:07 utc | 280
On music for the unification of Europe, when the time comes…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v_Vtjo1kUg
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Nov 28 2022 15:20 utc | 281
Re Helmers article:
The model is the armistice of Panmunjom of July 27, 1953, which ended the Korean War. The terms of the armistice took two years to negotiate by US, Korean and Chinese officers.
Personal bugbear:
The above statement is NOT correct.
This is a very common mis-perception & assumptive reporting, recounting re the supposed end of the Korean War.
No treaty was ever signed.
No Armistice was ever signed.
No agreement was ever entered into by any belligerent State, or State representative, or authorized plenipotentiaries.
There was a ceasefire agreed by DPRK & Chinese joint Military Command & US/UN military Command representatives on the ground. Yet, nothing ever proceeded beyond that. Sth Korean dictator flatly refused to even participate in that, nevertheless SK troops were under US command, and abide by the respective military commands semi-indefinite ceasefire.
No Armistice agreement nor Peace Treaty between States followed.
The US wanted to keep its future ‘options’ … open.
In fact, all belligerents are still technically, in fact, at War. The Korean War has not, nor ever ended.
FYI
“Our task is not Bakhmut itself, but the destruction of the Ukrainian army and the reduction of its combat potential, which has an extremely positive effect on other areas, which is why this operation was dubbed the “Bakhmut meat grinder.”
According to French citizen fighting for the DPR Erwan Castel the mission goals are fulfilled as about 50-80 Ukrainian soldiers die every day in Bakhmut alone.
http://alawata-rebellion.blogspot.com/2022/11/sur-le-front-dartemovsk.html
Posted by: Nanker | Nov 28 2022 15:34 utc | 283
@Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 13:56 utc | 262
“The people of the Ukraine are Enemy…Bomb the railroads. Flatten Kiev and Lviv to the ground. There should not be brick upon brick within ten miles of Stepan Bandera avenue.”
You are psychotic.
Posted by: evilsooty999 | Nov 28 2022 15:41 utc | 284
What is going on? One side needs to man up and declare war. It’s almost like teenage girls arguing she said this no you said that no let me explain what I meant I warn you don’t you dare, ect, ect, ect…..it’s like all sides are afraid to actually fight. Russia does alot of talking. China too. And sadly they gotta do their talking through western internet networks. Sad very sad indeed.
Posted by: Longfellow | Nov 28 2022 15:44 utc | 285
Since @ 279 posted music, I’ll post Regina, Saskatchewan bandThe Age of Electric’s song “Remote Control” from their 1997 album Make a Pest a Pet
https://www.google.ca/search?q=the+age+of+electric+remote+control
Dec.7th, next potential interest rate hike, the trigger season, ho ho ho
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Nov 28 2022 15:45 utc | 286
Posted by: evilsooty999 | Nov 28 2022 15:41 utc | 282
Possible. I actually think hate can be both natural, motivating and healthy. A Communist movement does not function without class hate.
If, then, I am psychotic, what do you make of the Ukrainian swine who can walk right by people taped to telephone poles outside shopping centers, laugh at them, spit at them, or do nothing.
They are culpable and I contend that motivating a “velvet glove” touch to the conflict with fear of hurting “innocent bystanders” is absolutely misguided.
Posted by: Tichy | Nov 28 2022 15:48 utc | 287
Outraged | Nov 28 2022 15:22 utc | 280 said:
“Re Helmers article:
The model is the armistice of Panmunjom of July 27, 1953, which ended the Korean War. The terms of the armistice took two years to negotiate by US, Korean and Chinese officers.
Personal bugbear:
The above statement is NOT correct.
This is a very common mis-perception & assumptive reporting, recounting re the supposed end of the Korean War.
No treaty was ever signed.
No Armistice was ever signed.
No agreement was ever entered into by any belligerent State, or State representative, or authorized plenipotentiaries.
There was a ceasefire agreed by DPRK & Chinese joint Military Command & US/UN military Command representatives on the ground. Yet, nothing ever proceeded beyond that. Sth Korean dictator flatly refused to even participate in that, nevertheless SK troops were under US command, and abide by the respective military commands semi-indefinite ceasefire.
No Armistice agreement nor Peace Treaty between States followed.
The US wanted to keep its future ‘options’ … open.
In fact, all belligerents are still technically, in fact, at War. The Korean War has not, nor ever ended.
FYI”
I say:
Come on! Nitpicking?
The status quo is clear:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement
The status de facto is another issue.
Helmer is right and you are wrong.
Try again.
There are so many posters talking from the top off their (piss)heads that the noise is annoying…
Posted by: Abcde | Nov 28 2022 15:58 utc | 288
@Tichy | Nov 28 2022 9:34 utc | 197
Thanks, I think I know what you mean. To avoid the sickness, I don’t read the MSM anymore.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 28 2022 15:59 utc | 289
Outraged@280
I am unsure that you are really in disagreement with Helmer. He makes the point, as do you, that the Armistice was not agreed at the state level, it was a technical military agreement to stop fighting. And he makes the point that an armistice in Ukraine, as in Syria, will not end the war, indeed he sees no end to it for a generation or two.
Did you have time to read the whole thing? It is worth it.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 28 2022 16:01 utc | 290
Posted by: Ghost of Mozgovoy | Nov 28 2022 15:20 utc | 279
Excellent music, took me back to the 90’s. I recall one film from the colors trilogy. Plus good practice with the greek alphabet
Posted by: Paco | Nov 28 2022 16:05 utc | 291
Tichy | Nov 28 2022 14:30 utc | 269, who said that?
On the Solovyov show – please note I’m reproducing from Doctorow, I do not understand Russian:
“Once again, I will focus attention on the little speech delivered by the panelist Karen Shakhnazarov, director of Mosfilm, whom I have characterized in my previous reports on the Solovyov show as someone drawn from the creative intelligentsia, as opposed to the political scientists and Duma deputies who otherwise are the talking heads on these shows.”
Posted by: htyul | Nov 28 2022 16:13 utc | 292
@ Ghost of Mozgovoy | Nov 28 2022 15:20 utc | 279
very nice.. thanks for sharing..
Posted by: james | Nov 28 2022 16:17 utc | 294
IMO, talk of a DMZ is a trial balloon that will go nowhere. If such a structure were to be constructed, it would be on the Western borders of the current Ukraine, particularly walling off Poland. IMO, the realization that all Ukraine must be recovered is now recognized by Russia’s leaders. In this regard, I highly suggest a close reading of the section on ontological security within this essay I initially liked to on the Week in Review thread. This portion is extremely important:
What happened to Ukraine after the second Maidan, from the perspective of Russia’s ontological security, meant the following:
confrontation with the West, hitherto a certain general and geographically distributed modality of Russian political life, is rapidly focusing on one point—Ukraine;
since Kiev was the center of the Eastern Slavs’ first statehood and the cradle of their culture and their religious identity, the confrontation affects fundamental historical narratives and key symbols;
the perception of Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians as a triune people means that the emergence of anti-Russia within the area populated by this people is akin to an existential catastrophe.
Thus, the clash with the West in Ukraine becomes something of an East Slavic Armageddon. The stakes are so high that reaching any compromise—whatever its possible content—becomes an ontological problem. [My Emphasis]
I’m certain more discussion of the essay, Crooke’s al-Mayadeen column, and his next SCF essay will occur on the next thread.
Jimmy Scungilli | Nov 28 2022 13:45 utc | 260
Is there a realistic chance that Germany would exit NATO?
I see none, for three reasons.
(1) Who should take the lead? None of our current politicians – except if you hope for Sarah Wagenknecht, who is removed from power about as far as she can be. If you hope for some kind of revolution triggered by the current hardships – even that requires some kind of leadership, and I don’t see those people anywhere around.
(2) We aren’t even supposed to know who sabotaged the North Stream pipeline, there is no mention of it anywhere in the media or politics. In other words, the percentage of sheep in our population is just too high. It’s a result of our media which are strictly transatlantic, even more so than all the politicians.
(3) Anybody who announced plans to shut down AFRICOM, Ramstein, Spangdahlem etc. would be quickly eliminated. Our BND (Bundesnachrichtendienst) is really a branch of the CIA. Every new chancellor is being taught the rules, and you can tell that Scholz knows them. Are the US ready to leave Irak alone, or Syria? If an exit from NATO was agreed upon in our government, the US would not vacate their bases, but use them against us and intensify their occupation of Germany. They would have to do it openly, but that would not deter them. Everybody knows, anyway, that they’re a bunch of criminals.
Posted by: grunzt | Nov 28 2022 16:52 utc | 296
reply to 273
The article is very encouraging because it finally shows how the war can end without negotiation from Ukraine. We can look for signs of preparation of the coming DMZ. I was interested in the remote mine laying technology. My only question is in regard to a map showing Kharkiv going back to Russia. is that really going to happen?
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 28 2022 16:58 utc | 297
Posted by: bevin | Nov 28 2022 14:47 utc | 273
I was glad bevin mentioned that article by Helmer, UKRAINE ARMISTICE – HOW THE UDZ OF 2023 WILL SEPARATE THE ARMIES LIKE THE KOREAN DMZ OF 1953. I rather agree that’s how the Ukraine war is likely to end. Or something like that.
I can’t see Russians accepting large numbers of dead, simply to conquer the rest of Ukraine. That’s the major constraint on Russian strategy. Unless there’s a dramatic Ukie collapse, which the US will do anything to avoid, short of actually intervening. More likely a settling down to something like a demilitarised frontier across central Ukraine. At any rate, Russia can’t lose, in my view.
Posted by: laguerre | Nov 28 2022 17:09 utc | 298
bevein@273….maybe Helmer needs a quick course in GPS Guided munitions with a range of 300k…. short buffer zones make enemy infiltration extremely easy, rocket attacks will be wee buns at 100k. A Donetsk 2.0, may as well sign another Minsk Agreement and pray.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 28 2022 17:18 utc | 299
The “Korea” style end to this might be the fantasy face saving stop that is the best the west can hope for. Which leads to wondering will Russia let them save face this time?
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Nov 28 2022 17:25 utc | 300