Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:36 utc | 126
Great stuff, thank you very much for putting some meat on those bones, what you say accords with my layman’s impression of the UK’s relative energy / electricity security and your reminder of other issues still in the air after Brexit seems highly prescient.
Likewise your conjecture on the possibility of the US “helping out” with a little sanctions relief if things get hairy. Where to start, we really shouldn’t laugh, perhaps they could repair NS and unsink Felicity Ace while they’re at it.
Priming UK citizenry for electricity rationing doesn’t appear to fit within a good faith interpretation of the fundamentals.
Much appreciated, thanks again.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 21 2022 7:46 utc | 203

…..freedom against tyranny .

Posted by: Down South | Nov 21 2022 7:57 utc | 205

If it were done under the current NS2 contract its possible that its price would apply, dramatically cutting Russia’s revenue compared to spot. Win Win for the US, heroes to the Germans plus cutting Russian profits.
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:36 utc | 126

Payment in inflated rubles 😂 Dickens’ fiction heh? As if the world hasn’t changed after Feb. 24 … nothing that was is 😉
UK and US Isolated to Five-Eyes Global Community

Posted by: Oui | Nov 21 2022 8:00 utc | 207

@ Down South | Nov 21 2022 7:55 utc | 204
A coup doesn’t necessarily require the application of extreme prejudice. Given he’s a known cocaine-head, an appropriate injection through his nasal passages while he’s sleeping, to induce a stroke would do the job. And no, I am not, a psycho nutjob. Honorable retirement to a care facility, & evermore honored as the ‘New Churchill’.
Perfidious Albion could be called upon, their home grown Novichok (UK) brand, via Porton Down, is demonstrably hands down the least lethal, lethal nerve agent ever developed.
(See: Classic flick: The Osterman Weekend, or real life, Israeli comedic Mossad operatives re assassination via same method, of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh, on 19 January 2010, in a hotel room in Dubai, extensive CCTV footage.)
@ Arganthonios | Nov 21 2022 7:57 utc | 206
Well, a military leader is a legitimate military target.
Ah, no, not once he assumes the position of Head of State, ie, President. Well, outside the Rules-Based-Order, anyways …

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 8:17 utc | 209

Spotted on another forum –https://www.russiadefence.net/t8871p75-russian-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-33#408534
Map showing Ukrop losses by Oblast based on social media – total 101,431 reported (does not include the missing) – unusually heavy in Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhitomir and particularly Transcarpathia , unusually light in most of Western Ukraine
Anyone know anything about this? origin , reliability etc. ?

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 21 2022 8:44 utc | 211

Dani @112
Haha! That is your best yet 😛

Posted by: Tim | Nov 21 2022 9:39 utc | 213

anon2020 @ 203

Priming UK citizenry for electricity rationing doesn’t appear to fit within a good faith interpretation of the fundamentals.

Revolutions happen during eras of rising expectations, it’s not the hopeless who rebel it’s people who believe that tomorrow can be better than today and are motivated by hope. Surprisingly, revolutions happen during times of rising economic gains.
The entire neoliberal era has been characterized by systemic austerity and the designed-in lowered expectations with the hopelessness, ennui, and anomie that it instills throughout the culture and society. It’s the principle reason there are no anti-war movements and little worker protest to be seen.
Unless of course things crash and hit rock bottom where the governing authorities loose all legitimacy and the associated authority as happened in Russia after WW1.
My guess UK and maybe Germany are harping on about blackouts as rebellion control, to lower expectations. If a man is convinced he won’t even have half a loaf of bread tomorrow and you then give him one he’ll be grateful.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 9:45 utc | 215

This is a larger problem to be faced when Russia eventually ends this and Ukraine (or whatever is left of it) capitulates.
This obsessional neurosis expecting something “to end”. Is it is peculiarity of modern man that expects everything to be a game of two halves with Pepsi or Bud franchise in the interval ?
Have you ever heard of The Hundred Years War 1337-1453 ?
Or the Thirty Years War 1618-1648 ?
Did you know how the treaty of Westphalia 1648 set the basis of Foreign Policy for centuries until USA decided it was not accordant with Hegemonistic Weltanschauung ?
Ukraine is simply the battlefield. It has no other function.
It is the “stadium” – the “Colisseum” where the killing takes place
The real war is for Europe and whether Europe is under US Hegemony or pursues independent policies in a Multipolar World – either as nation states or as some Euro grouping successor to EU which is now little more than NATO
This conflict is defining and may go on for 40 years. After all UK and US were running Bandera terror cells in Ukraine long after 1950 and cultivating them in safe harbours in Canada, US and UK
This is not a conflict – it is a Culture War

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 21 2022 10:28 utc | 217

Why do people keep repeating this 85% number??!
This is nonsense. 85% of armed forces personnel are admin, logistics, Air Force, navy, etc. NOT “trigger pullers” in the ground forces.
Furthermore, corruption has lead to RU command overcounting the manpower they do have, in some cases 50%, most likely 30% overall. “Dead Souls”
There is a reasonably sized force to guard borders and man air defense in Russia itself, lets say 150k, it’s a big country. They are not really available for redeployment.
Half the contract soldiers quit in August! No-one to replace them!
Not very patriotic!
No credible source for this “85%” figure! Very misleading! “Mobiks” are to shore up very weak and thin defensive lines! Barely enough to do even that.
People here are engaged in wishful thinking.
Many mobiks are already on front lines. Prayers to them.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 10:59 utc | 219

@ moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 10:59 utc | 219
Rubbish false histrionics. All absolute BS.
Regular available RF forces, excluding Rosguardia, LPR/DPR, Chechen volunteers, PMC, leaves ~85%+ regular forces in reserve on defensive alert inside RF/Belarus borders. ~10-15% of 2nd rate unit formations were initially deployed with older equipment, prior to 1% mobilization (~300,000). Further, available reserves re mobilization now tested/fine-tuned re absolute minimum of ~4,700,000 who have served 1 year in last five years(young fit healthy). Total reserve mobilization minimum reserve of further ~24,700,000+.
The figures readily accessible. You are deliberately obtuse & deliberately misrepresenting demonstrable data/known facts.
Why did I bother …

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 11:20 utc | 221

@ LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 11:18 utc | 220
Consider the polls re Zelensky election on a peace platform of (IIRC) correctly ~91%. The Nazi’s who control the institutions & their on the ground thugs actually only comprise ~5% of population at best Feb2422.
Siege/contain major cities/towns post defeat in detail of AFU remnant military and in the towns and cities in current situ populace will mob lynch the Banderists and retake control themselves. Merely the families of the deceased, missing & permanently seriously maimed outnumber the true Banderists hardcore massively.
NATO/US has essentially done effectively zero to prepare for conventional high intensity war in EU prior to and since Feb2422. There is a fundamental disparity in force sizes, capabilities, capacities, logistics and demonstrable combat power between US/NATO vs RF/Belarus in EU theater. and a hardcore & distributed % of all RF are now combat Veteran/Elite status given last 10 months.
Nukes use by US appear to be bluff & bluster given the cupboard is bare. IMV.
The true purpose of the military conflict is a steel bear-trap in which Empire has been entrapped & cannot escape without massive soft/hard power damage. Stated previously is also as seen daily to economically drain Empire, and attrit it’s war materiel, especially consumables,ie Ordnance, & war reserve stocks. Whilst encouraging the RoW and providing cover to stand up Geopolitically & more against Empire.
Empire has no offramp, the Strategic initiative and dominance is in RF hands, hence serially decried … hang’em slowly.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 11:49 utc | 223

To Outraged at 221
To inform people like me. What can I get you from the bar!
We also enjoy the trolls.
Cheers, Oldengineer

Posted by: Oldengineer | Nov 21 2022 11:50 utc | 225

This Italian* military analysis site reporter had a chance to visit a Russian training camp. He doesn’t appear particularly impressed, and suggests the offensive is not likely to begin any time before next February. As far as Western news sites, i found it to be quite neutral and at times even sympathetic towards Moscow, relatively speaking.
https://www.analisidifesa.it/2022/11/reportage-laddestramento-dei-riservisti-russi-e-dei-volontari-del-donbass/
Perhaps the Russians were just trying to “Appear weak when you are strong” and inviting an Italian journalist was part of a clever psyop.
*Google Chrome does a decent auto translate job

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 12:20 utc | 227

@ Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 12:20 utc | 227
It’s very snide, sarcastic, not objective, filled with narrative tropes, got halfway and gave up.
He’d spent maybe two paragraphs in toto re the actual troop training and was seriously slanted & dismissive/biased. Does not comprehend reserve soldiers who have served for one year or more only require refresher training, not a repeat in detail of boot camp. The purpose of their training in this situ is to focus on transfer of knowledge experience re REAL World current combat and imprint lessons learned idiosyncrasies of battlespace along with practical as real as practicable tac exs with explosions live fire in vicinity to condition re routine FEBA environment. Describes huge quantities of abandoned stores & armaments re multiple RF retreats, repeatedly refers to successful tactical withdrawal across Dnieper river crossing whilst in contact under fire as embarrassing retreat, politically/militarily.
Though if enough interested can post an accurate full translation …
Once he started with RF empty warehouse, arsenals, war stocks etc … pfft.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 12:45 utc | 229

🇪🇺🚫🔌🇷🇺☢️⚛️Europe faces a new energy crisis if Putin decides to cut off the supply of nuclear fuel — Express
The publication reports that Russia controls about 42% of the global nuclear fuel market,and the EU depends on the supply of Russian uranium by about 20%.
If Russia decides to “turn off the tap”, electricity prices in Europe will surely set new records. “>https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1698529/putin-nuclear-power-energy-uranium-gas-prices

https://t.me/azmilitary11/29164

Posted by: Down South | Nov 21 2022 13:05 utc | 231

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 11:18 utc | 220
Actually, except for the US, nukes are no longer relevant. The hypersonics as we saw near Lyviv, do a shocking amount of damage on their own just by their kinetics and conventional warheads. A few strikes on US bases will put them out of commission.
Another interesting issue is that US aircraft REQUIRE very clean and pristine runways. Every day on every US bases the staff walk the runways picking up tiny debris so they don’t destroy the very fragile engines. Russian aircraft, have screens on the intakes to prevent this and can operate on very dirty fields. So, minor bomb damage to a US runway puts it out of commission perhaps for weeks. Also, Russian aircraft are armed whereas US ones aren’t. I flew UH-1H’s and we had our flak vests and that is it. Nothing has changed since. I am friends with a bunch of former Soviet MI-24 Pilots (here in Hungary where I live) who are amazed at just how fragile our aircraft are in comparison. Those things are beasts and can carry troops and regular attack armament (less fuel). The US has had open contract competitions for years that have gone unfulfilled which basically gives the requirements the same as the MI-24 had.
I’ll add another issue that goes unmentioned. US forces have a ton of support assets that cannot be operated in combat conditions. I will add the M1 tanks to that list as it requires JP4 fuel. That fuel is going to be very scarce and in competition with aviation assets. In theater, it is a contest of who gets this very precious and limited asset. I was placed in Corps OPS planning for Theater Medical assets (operational exercises) and all US combat support hospitals have turbine generators that require 10,000 gallons of JP4 each per day and a typical hospital setup runs 4 of these turbine generators a day. The first thing that happens is no fuel for hospitals and then no fuel for tanks. It is that simple. But, the idiots in charge keep making these stupid decisions on equipment choices. If air support is not guaranteed then no fuel is coming in as normally it is offloaded from cargo transports like C-130’s or C-17’s leaving them just enough to get to a refueling point.
The Russians assume no air superiority and operate as if that were fact. They also don’t build these ridiculous support setups that require heavy logistical support. Another thing I got handed in one exercise is the Corps commander declared all wounded dead thus eliminating any medical requirements for logistics. It saved an enormous headache. I think the Russians and Ukrainians understand this very well and operate accordingly. The US assumes absolute air dominance and cannot operate without it at all. So, there is the real issue in a nutshell. Take away the air resupply and the US military is hamstrung.
I’ll go on with regard to training. The effective soldier is one who is mentally prepared to fight. Tactical training is important and basic squad levels of operations are enough for most. The larger tactical stuff is planned for and trained to death but in war, all plans go to shit on the first shot. It is a nimble and prepared force that can respond to these constant changes. I’ll digress a bit to consider exactly who is actually fighting and how effective they are. In US wars roughly 80% either never fire their weapon of don’t actually aim at anyone. Most do the spray-and-pray method and deplete their ammunition quickly showing they actually fought. of the 20% that actually fight half are “heroes” and the other half are psychopaths. I was involved in some molecular modeling of PTSD where we dug into the weeds about why this is happening and now getting worse. The statistics vary and the numbers shift to even worse. With the western thought processes being indoctrinated now I think there are even fewer “heroes” now. I wonder how many will cut and run when faced with imminent death.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Nov 21 2022 13:14 utc | 233

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 21 2022 8:44 utc | 211
Don’t know for sure but I can hazard a guess. Western Ukraine? Highest percentage of Galicians,Nazis and connected-types this cashed- up and relatively more educated.
Most of their men fled or had already left before the war started ;because they were more educated,Western and /or Rich.
Those left are the ones most likely to have positions in admin ; as we know the Banderists were given choice positions. So away from the battlefield! All in Kiev or are seeing-out the war in offices liasing with NATO or the EU. The white-collar types like Melnyk who has his son studying in Germany for example.
The rest who didn’t flee or have cushy jobs? Well they likely form the punisher battalions pushing Polish volunteers or Eastern Ukrainians or unconnected types into the hail of bullets, or are there to shoot deserters. Either way these mongrels are well away from the shots fired in anger so also don’t get the casualties.
So the above may explain why the loud-mouth Galicians or Western Ukrainians surprisingly enjoy the lowest casualties.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 21 2022 13:24 utc | 235

“En Passant. …
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love · 20h
Ambulances arrived in Kherson to replace those stolen by the Russians
🙄 Next. …”
Corrected statement :
“Ambulances arrived in Kherson to replace those taken to a safe place by the Russians for fear they would “disappear” as soon as the Ukrainian “liberators” would enter the city”.
Nah don’t thank me… 😉

Posted by: Nanker | Nov 21 2022 13:41 utc | 237

Fo4: Old Microbiologist, 233
About 20 years ago I spotted a VCR video tape in the local library, Chicagoland. I was to return later to pick it up, for viewing. This didn’t happen. The content of the video was printed, on the cassette sleeve. In short, it was a report from a military airfield in Russia, about 1992 or later (when the Russians opened their secrets and hearts). The american Colonel remarked, that the runway was littered with debris, chunks, even protruding twigs. And, in the USA, a tiralliere of aviators would pick any stone or bolt from the pavement – such was the high quality standards back in the USA . . . The Russian military commander responded, that in actual combat the conditions would be even worse, and the Russian pilots have to train for the fight and not for comfort. . . .
I regret of not noting the title of the VCR cassette.
On the side note, I remember a Technical Director of a large lignite mine, feeding 2 GW power station. He was comparing Rusian drilling rigs with those glistering, impressive (name of the West country here . . ) mining drills, for seam dewatering. Well, he much preferred the Russian drilling equipment, for durability and no-nonsense design. Гнётся, не ламётся, as the saying goes.

Posted by: LogosApplied | Nov 21 2022 14:02 utc | 239

In response to Herr Rengbone@240,
I doubt a full mobilization is part of the plan. But yes, Russia should be able to mobilize nearly 25M in the event that it is absolutely necessary to do so, implying presumably a full blown war on Russian territory proper where it’s a choice of self-defense or eradication. But of course, nothing happens without expending any effort, and these sort of human resources cannot be easily tapped into during peacetime, nor sustained on a peacetime economy.

Posted by: Skiffer | Nov 21 2022 14:15 utc | 241

Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112

“Since the Russians were driven from Zmiinyi Island in June, it has been established as a base for Ukrainian naval forces and is now the embryo of a forward operating area for the reconquest of Ukrainian Crimea. Approximately 20,000 Ukrainian troops occupy the island, kept secure by NATO air forces enforcing a no-fly zone in the western Black Sea.”

Whoa, when you lie, LIE BIG!!
Zmiinyi Island is TINY, it’s area is just 0.17 km2 = 170,000 m2
So 20,000 men on 170,000 m2 = 8.5 SQUARE METERS PER PERSON!!!
Pretty DENSELY packed, I reckon.
Stop bullshiting, please.

Posted by: LongCovid | Nov 21 2022 14:23 utc | 243

@244;
Officially the US has at least 2x the number of military satellites in orbit (123 vs 74).
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-by-number-of-military-satellites.html
Unofficially there are a couple of hundred commercial dual-use satellites (e.g. Maxar) which complement this.
This was acknowledged by the Russians already, I believe by Medvedev or Shoigu?
There is also this thing called STARLINK – which when finished will basically deny the ability of other countries to have an independent space presence. There are thousands of them already.
Etc. etc.
Putin is done – stick a fork in him.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 14:37 utc | 245

Oh those? Just Russian fireworks, only semi-lethal!!

Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 21 2022 14:55 utc | 247

Joe, comment 43
-the destruction of the Russian ally Yugoslavia was confirmation of Nato’s intention. I believe a Russian armoured column set up position in Sarajevo to counter Western machinations –
Incorrect. Yugoslavia, was never a Russian ally. The SFRY or the Yugoslavia which existed for a short while consisting of Serbia and Montenegro.
The SFRY (Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia consisting of six republics; Serbia with two autonomous provinces, Kosovo and Vojvodina) was non-aligned, one of the founders of the Non Aligned movement whose we’ll known champion was the president of the SFRY Josip Broz Tito, one of the great statesman of the 20th century.
The SFRY was wary of the USSR and its defense doctrine was centred on defense against USSR invasion. Tito broke with Stalin, an important historical event, and generations of Yugoslavs were brought up to fear the USSR.
When the SFRY was destroyed because Serbian chauvinists, joined by their Croatian partners, wanted to create a Greater Serbia (make Serbia great again) by taking parts of Croatia and Bosnia and Hercegovina, Serbia and Montenegro created a state called Yugoslavia, which lasted just a couple of years because the Montenegrins ran away from domination by the Serbian nationalists. That Yugoslavia also was not an ally of Russia.
– Russia participated in the “management” of the Yugoslav crisis and was part of the peace keepers. Hence, their contingent in Sarajevo.
– As I have stated here before, the facts about the break-up of the SFRY (Yugoslavia) have been credibly established based on
rock-solid evidence by the Yugoslavia war crimes tribunal (ICTY). The evidence is public.
Those speaking about the SFRY should engage with the EVIDENCE, not with media stories and preferred versions pushed by numerous “experts”. The lies are very loud, but the truth can not erased, even if it is silent in comparison. Unfortunately.

Posted by: JB | Nov 21 2022 14:58 utc | 249

@ bevin | Nov 21 2022 15:01 utc | 250
Excellent comment!

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 21 2022 15:09 utc | 251

There is also this thing called STARLINK –
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 14:37 utc | 245
—
Starlink ground stations have been “rooted” and the orbiting constellation has been compromised.
https://youtu.be/myKs04lfuy8?t=938
https://github.com/KULeuven-COSIC/Starlink-FI

Posted by: too scents | Nov 21 2022 15:24 utc | 253

LogosApplied | Nov 21 2022 14:02 utc | 239
I have seen that video on youtube a couple of years back. The two things that stood out in the US to Russia comparison was the runways and training. US pilot training had more civilian workplace health and safety type rules whereas Russian training was same as combat conditions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 21 2022 15:44 utc | 255

Friends in Ukraine over grain deal… foes in Syria over who rules over whom?
Turkey and Russia’s relationship would give an aspirin a headache these days..
“Today, the Russian military police suddenly canceled joint patrols with the Turks in the area of Ain al-Arab. Reason not specified”:
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/40004
A possible reason:
Turkey strikes SDF and Kurdish in Syria and Iraq, both of whom cooperate with USA and Russia, depending on the area:
https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-syria-on-november-21-2022-map-update/
Seems like the fire is flowing both ways:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/21/killed-turkey-rockets-fired-syria
Iran in the mix right next door too…. things are hotting up:
https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-iraq-on-november-21-2022-map-update/
Back in Europe, Serbia still bubbling away…
https://www.rt.com/news/566925-serbia-kosovo-talks-fail/
Reuters’ ‘explainer’ miraculously still manages to avoid explaining exactly who is shelling Nuclear Power plants:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/close-call-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-2022-11-21/
What could possibly ever go wrong…

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 16:00 utc | 257

can’t trust any of the legal institutions, EU, US, NATO, UN. an interlocking directorate of corruption.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 16:06 utc | 259

Stoltenberg: No one should support Ukraine – ah, classic freudian.
https://twitter.com/AZgeopolitics/status/1594684567838932993

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 21 2022 16:14 utc | 261

@ Brother Ma 238
Exactly. So the cultural memory of Ukraine is far more sophisticated than Usukis is telling its populations, far more sophisticated than Britain where even the BBC rants against Qatar banning alcohol.
It would appear to me that the Anglosaxons are crusading against that Muslim consciousness in Ukraine, while using Russophobia as a smoke screen.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 21 2022 16:17 utc | 263

@ Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 12:45 utc | 229
I don’t need a translation, was meant for MoA readers ;
My general impressions of neutrality/objectivity referred to the site, not the article per se. But since i read it in my native Italian, i can’t say i agree w your characterisation on tone and attitude. As for the content, i thought it worth sharing as a rare example of a Nato country journalist being granted access to a Russian military facility.
If you prefer to believe that everything is running super smoothly and we are about to see a decisive, one-sided victory and that all the 300k men ill arrive with super new modern equipment and are to be added to the mighty Russian army, instead of perhaps replacing + reinforcing the many losses in what has been a tough and even fight, (the evidence of which seems pretty obvious on the map and recent failures…) go ahead.
We shall see how it all pans out. I remember very well all the ‘operational encirclement’ and ‘Russia is 2 weeks away from destroying the UAF’ talk from March, so i place the “UAF is about to crumble” in the same skeptical basket as the “Russia is running out of missiles” category. All will be revealed in due time i guess.

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 16:26 utc | 265

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 21 2022 15:29 utc | 254
The US has an appalling lack of success since world war 2, and its role in the Allied victory then was much overhyped at least in the US. was it socially enfeebled in the 1950’s and all the way through Reagan’s terms, too? It has always been on easy street with regard to foes. the only time it has beaten a foe stronger than itself is against Britain, but how many former colonies broke away from Britain? it beat a fading Spanish empire, beat bands of pirates, managed to get its ass kicked by Canada, got in on the tail end of World War 1. It was gifted the world after world war 2 and set up systems that benefited it, legal and economic, and that has lasted what 75 years, generously speaking. and that is with the gift of Gorbachev dissolving its major rival. look at actual empires and the wars they fought and compare them to the US.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 16:28 utc | 267

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 21 2022 15:52 utc | 256
But, as PavewayIV might say, if the prize is valuable enough, and it is, the MIC will pull their arm outta their ass… Everything’s easy and dirty cheap except for the software and that’s not super difficult.
That’s likely what they’ll try eventually. On the other side of the equation:
This is exactly the type of scenario Russia is familiar with from the Syrian theater and these were exactly the type of drones they developed air defenses for to protect Khmeimim Air Base. If memory serves, Russia developed one of the earliest and most effective defense systems for this kind of drone attack.
How this will work at NATO scale, I don’t know, but if Syria wasn’t “NATO scale” what would be? And if the prize hasn’t been deemed “valuable enough” after nine months to expend some cheap drones one wonders when it will be?
Assuming the worst, if the Pentagon decides to go all in on cheapo drones it’ll be the same old game of mice against mice-traps.
Let’s wait and see …
Aside:
Remember the tale of Pandora’s box? What happens if the Pentagon (or Mi6?) decides to go this route and it’s a roaring success? Perhaps they might want to consider that cheap, effective weapons for one side are also cheap, effective weapons for the other …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 16:37 utc | 269

Posted by: Boomheist | Nov 20 2022 15:45 utc | 14
Fahrenheit degrees doen’t exist in the old world, you must be mistaken.

Posted by: Arganthonios | Nov 21 2022 16:40 utc | 271

bevin @270: “… there is even talk of reviving Five Year Plans.”
Now that is welcome news, and it is a prerequisite for defeating the Empire (for real) if when things get serious. I wonder if it is really possible to return to economic planning without a new revolution, though.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 21 2022 16:51 utc | 273

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 21 2022 16:54 utc | 273
Y’know I was skeptical of the UN, OSCE, IAEA, OPCW, EU before this conflict in Ukraine, and questioned their bias, this conflict has now shown that the above bodies, and many more connected with them, are utterly biased in favour of the West …
For a long time I puzzled over how this came to be, i.e how the UN became so almost completely a Western institution and more specifically an Anglo-American institution.
Slowly it dawned on me, thinking back to my youth when I provided technical services to many NGOs NGO-affiliated NPOs, that the common career path for people working in NGO-world was predominantly in the UN or one of it’s large organs.
Now I understand what really happened: Over many decades (at least 30 in my my own memory) thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people were recruited and filtered through the global NGO system, which are primarily Anglo-American institutions into the UN, where they now operate the machinery of that organisation at almost all levels.
Thus it came to pass.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 17:00 utc | 275

Arch Bungle @ 269

Assuming the worst, if the Pentagon decides to go all in on cheapo drones it’ll be the same old game of mice against mice-traps.

The drones may well be cheap on the inside but the price will be super deluxe. Screw building F35s when you can make $10k drones and charge the taxpayer $150k. Definitely the future grift!

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 17:04 utc | 277

Western Nato warmongers still apportioning blame on Russia for the missile hit in Poland, twisting it as Russia’s fault for causing the conflict, and Zelensky still won’t admit it was HIS forces that fired the missile into Poland.
Of course, Zelensky was trying to trigger Article 5 and by attacking Poland he must have thought that he would’ve been successful. US POTUS Biden was quick to play down the strike simply because there’s no way he wants to trigger Article 5, as it would likely lead to a huge escalation in hostilities and possibly the use of nuclear weapons. Biden doesn’t care that much for Ukrainians or the Polish, nor possibly any EU or Nato country to trigger Article 5 and see the likelihood of attacks on US soil.
As U.S. STRATCOM head Charles Richard said the US are testing their weapons in Ukraine, to see how they fair for the REAL hot war with Russia or China, the deaths of Ukrainian troops are an acceptable price to pay to see how the weapons do in a real combat situation.
Eventually all manner of new US weaponry will be sent to Ukraine to see how it performs in live combat, the human cost won’t matter to the US POTUS, as it won’t be American citizens that die, well mostly it won’t.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/11/18/caitlin-johnstone-ukraine-as-weapons-testing-site/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 21 2022 17:17 utc | 279

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 16:00 utc
Re, Russian-Turkish relations. This is the traditional way that nations have interacted, before everything became an existential and ideological confrontation between good and evil. For most of human history nations could go to war over something minor, settle it on the battlefield and/or via a negotiated settlement that gave territory/power, and then end up fighting on the same side against a different country a few years later. Even the British, probably the worst people in all of history, could manage this. The great contribution to geopolitics from the US is this idea of a never-ending crusade based on good vs. evil.
The Russian-Turkish relationship is actually a fine example of what a real multipolar world will look like. Within the last 10 years there have been events that could well have led to war between the two countries, yet they still manage to cooperate on issues where they share an interest and even understand that there are issues where they will not. Russia hasn’t thrown a fit about Turkiye supplying Ukraine with equipment. I’m sure the Kremlin is less than happy it occurred, but it hasn’t blocked cooperation in other areas. Contrast that to how the US behaves, currently threatening to sanction Turkiye for not sanctioning Russia while provoking Greece to provoke Turkiye even though they’re both NATO countries. The only hope for a geopolitics based on Realism is for the US to stop turning everything into an ideological purity contest with demands that the enemy be unconditionally destroyed.

Posted by: Lex | Nov 21 2022 17:21 utc | 281

It’s a late reply, but…
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 11:20 utc | 221:
Why did I bother …
Because your posts are educational for people like me so I echo the sentiments of
Posted by: Oldengineer | Nov 21 2022 11:50 utc | 225
So have an extra MUSSEL in your guinness on me!
And hello and welcome to
Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Nov 21 2022 13:14 utc | 233
Also very informative.
QK

Posted by: Qolotlh Kernow | Nov 21 2022 17:25 utc | 283

I did some basic analysis on the UKR Casualty figures I cross posted from another forum
That post listed 101,431 KIA – excluded MIA (probably killed) etc – a truly horrific loss – figures from Kiev City, Kherson oblast and Chernigov Oblast were missing from the map
Using this number and dividing by the 35 Million population of government controlled Ukraine we get a fatality rate of 2.88 per 1000
There is a pretty unusual distribution – the hardest hit areas were Poltava (12,56 per thousand 2021 population) and Transcarpathia – 11.25 per 1000) Zhytomyr (8.31) , Dnepropetrovsk(5.35) and Vinnitsa (5.11) were also hit hard
Sumy, Cherkassy, Nikolayev and Odessa all lost less that 0.7 per 1000 population

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 21 2022 17:33 utc | 285

“..So have an extra MUSSEL in your guinness on me!..” Qolotlh Kernow@282
Try Murphy’s Stout, its from Cork and superior.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 17:36 utc | 287

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 16:37 utc | 269
Good points
Like you say, there are proliferation issues that could come back to haunt NATO’s own high value weapons, that’s maybe a factor in the apparently slow and stilted US development of drones, trying to keep all the existing MIC pirate crews happy, whereas Iran has developed all kinds of novel and effective systems on a fraction of the budget.
The secrecy around the specifics of what US / NATO drones are being sent to UA does make it harder than usual to understand their potential impact but you’re probably right that RF experience with counter drone systems means they can likely handle any realistic development.
Anyway, it was one of the least preposterous statements of absolute certitude offered by @moaobserver =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 21 2022 18:36 utc | 289

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 17:43 utc | 288
«The Black Sea and Turkey’s choke hold on Russia through the Dardanelles»
It is an old issue, consider this 19th century english propaganda song for the Crimean War:
“The dogs of war are loose, and the ragged Russian Bear,
Full bent on blood and robbery, has crawl’d out of his lair;
It seems a thrashing now and then, will never help to tame
That brute, and so he’s out upon the “same old game.”
The Lion did his best to find him some excuse
To crawl back to his den again, all efforts were no use;
He hunger’d for his victim, he’s pleased when blood is shed,
But let us hope his crimes may all recoil on his own head.
REFRAIN:
We don’t want to fight but by jingo if we do,
We’ve got the ships, we’ve got the men, and got the money too!
We’ve fought the Bear before and while we’re Britons true
The Russians shall not have Constantinople.”
The last line was the crucial one for the English Empire: their ruling elites were keen to protect their route to India (Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Egypt, Yemen, Somaliland, Oman, Gwadar, Karachi, Bombay Presidency), and they reckoned that the collapsing Ottoman Empire was no threat, but the Tsarist Empire could threaten Egypt from Constantinople. The english ruling elites well remembered that Napoleon invaded Egypt to cut the England-Egypt-India route.
The route to India no longer matters much, but the route to Egypt and the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf still matters a bit to the european states for oil and gas, even if most giant oil and gas ships cannot fit through the Suez canal and go via the longer route around southern Africa and the Atlantic.
So the USA still care about controlling the Suez route because the USA Navy primary function is the ability to cut any worldwide shipping route whenever they want, and to prevent others from doing the same.
The key here in the Eurasia vs. Oceania story is that transport of goods by ship is usually 10 times cheaper than by rail (too bad for the chinese BRI).

Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 19:53 utc | 291

Moaobserver is some kind of concerned troll.
Just repeating ukreich and natzo Propaganda.
So the Russians had to adapt to new realities on the field? This took a while?
Of course.
Did they underestimate ukreich and Nato determination? Maybe, propably.
Did they act?
Of course.
Are there problems with the mobilisation?
Of course. But punctual and they are learning. People got replaced, conditions improving.
And how can this be surprising? Do you have something to compare? Maybe the ukreich? Maybe you are projecting?
You don’t like percentage from other people, but your posts are literally c&p from ISW or MI6 troll summeries.

Posted by: Kartoschka | Nov 21 2022 20:02 utc | 293

@ Tom_12 | Nov 21 2022 14:48 utc | 246
Quite real. Russia has this thing with designing many & varied incarnations of the venerable WWI/WWII flamethrower, in a way where you can ‘reach out and touch someone’ … anywhere. Their thermobarics are wildly varied, effective & deadly, even have thermobaric RPGs …
Hence this indirect fire flamethower/incendiary effect from above … please note the ‘scale’ of the area covered.
@ Et Tu | Nov 21 2022 16:26 utc | 265
Oh yes of course, of course.
You can take your strawmen & …
@ pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 16:28 utc | 267
Upon reflection, quite.
@ Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 16:37 utc | 269
Pandoras box was opened long ago. Military organizations ‘thinking’ are slow, cumbersome, & conservative, hence typically slow to innovate/adapt … until an imperative arises.
@ bevin | Nov 21 2022 16:40 utc | 270
Oh yes, very much indeed. See Karlof1’s post re managed war economy sector, commissioners & committee’s re oversight & authorities by leading Engineers & Scientists & discussion.
@ ? | Nov 21 2022 16:51 utc | 273
Nic hijack, impostor.
@ Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 17:00 utc | 275
Indeed. As well as ” … we know where your children go to school …”
@ Lex | Nov 21 2022 17:21 utc | 281
Entire post. Absolutely spot on.
@ Qolotlh Kernow | Nov 21 2022 17:25 utc | 283
Obviously, predominantly Alpha’s post … yet are a tiny minority of MOAs audience … yet the passive lurkers & casuals numbers are far far larger … if posters only talk amongst themselves meh. If one periodically endeavors to expand upon/retort/rehash MOAs posters ‘known/knowns’ & accepted consensus’ with broader insights, explanation/background/fundamentals/patterns/linkage, there is more meat for the majority, especially since long term posters & knowledgeable already ‘Know’ the issues/facts/history/concepts in depth, so don’t see the need to comment nor do an ‘explainer’. IMHO the greatest benefit of MOA is to inform/enlighten the larger audience. Casual ‘stream of’, riff over.
You are welcome.
@ Republicofscotland | Nov 21 2022 17:26 utc | 284
we only see African dictators and Eastern European warlords standing in the dock of the Hague, and not the likes of the Blair’s and the Bush’s.
Quite. And ye shall know them by their refusal to sign & ratify the ICC treaty.
@ Aslangeo | Nov 21 2022 17:33 utc | 285
The total figure calculated figure is highly conservative & minimal re the source data used.
Another way to look at it is an average of ~300KIA for AFU per day based on actual bodycount.
That equates to a minimum of ~9,000KIA per month.
Therefore, total over last ten months ~90,000 KIA. If valid would equate to ~270,000 WIA of all categories and at least ~10,000 MIA/POWs. Total casualties ~370,000 KIA/WIA/MIA equates to ~62% casualties ergo AFU is combat ineffective since ~5-6 months ago. Again this is lowball because it is based on only immediate post battle body count, not losses of ALL kinds throughout Ukraine theater since Feb2422 duration … not just FEBA.
AFU started with standing army of ~600,000, yet has had six forced conscripted mobilizations since … down to even women & young boys & girls in the trenches. Now …
@ Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 17:34 utc | 286
See US Genesis 14:88 … the Peace Corps starting in ’60’s, all covert subversion run by three letter acronym(TLA) intel agencies, long term objectives(See: same re UK Labor Party, destruction from within, also same re seizure of administrative/institutional functions)
@ Blissex | Nov 21 2022 19:34 utc | 290
Excellent post. Long term strategic project. Abhorrent wider human consequences.
@ Kartoschka | Nov 21 2022 20:02 utc | 293
Yup. It is not alone …

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 22:12 utc | 295

@ Blissex | 291
> Transport of goods by ship is usually 10 times cheaper than by rail (too bad for the chinese BRI).
Depends where it’s going.
The average cost of a 40 foot container from China to the Germany: By sea – $ 7,000 vs by rail: $10,000.
Not quite 10 times…
Also, time is money. There is a huge difference between 10-18 days by rail vs. 20-30 days by sea.
https://super-internationalshipping.com/shipping-from-china-to-germany-air-sea-rail-express

Posted by: Nomad | Nov 22 2022 0:39 utc | 297

misc
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance wants “an acceptable peace agreement for Ukraine.”
At a press conference in Madrid, he said that otherwise dialogue with Moscow would be impossible.
“As long as Russia continues to behave as it is now, especially in relation to Ukraine, there is no opportunity for a meaningful dialogue,” he said.
NATO will not introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine because they do not want to become a party to the conflict – Stoltenberg
“Russia’s war against Ukraine can end at the negotiating table, but only on conditions acceptable to Ukraine, because the victory of Russia and Vladimir Putin are unacceptable.”- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the plenary session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in Madrid today
In 2015, in the West of Ukraine near Lviv, I observed how the US and UK,Canada actively trained the Ukrainian military. These trainings are helping them now-Stoltenberg
“We should have supported that even more even earlier,since 2014 NATO provided some,but we could have done more before the invasation”
“NATO countries should expand the supply of weapons, air defense and fuel to Ukraine in the face of intense Russian strikes
NATO wants to achieve an “acceptable peace agreement for Ukraine,” so it is necessary to increase military assistance to Kiev”-Stoltenberg.
[ but NATO is not a party to the conflict – yeah right liar ]
—————-
NATO regular forces are in Donbas under the guise of private military companies (PMCs), of which there are up to ten.
Such data was announced on the TV channel “Russia-24” by an officer of the people’s militia of the LPR Andrei Marochko.
——————–
Lithuania refused to transfer Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and NASAMS anti-aircraft systems to the Kiev regime – Delfi
The refusal of NASAMS deliveries is explained by the incident with the fall of a rocket in Poland, after which Lithuania decided to strengthen its air defense. The reason for the refusal to transfer howitzers is not explained.
————————-
At the NPP,due to shelling,among other things, condensate storage tanks were damaged, which led to a non-radioactive leak
Expert group assessed the degree of damage to the NPP, believes that the key equipment was not damaged, there is no threat to nuclear safety-IAEA
Comment: can’t imagine what would be needed to happen that would qualify as a “threat to nuclear safety” … the IAEA/UN seem delusional and toothless.
———————–
“The UN does not have the capacity to determine those responsible for the attacks in the area of the Zaporozhye NPP.” This was stated on Monday at a briefing by the Deputy representative of the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq.
“We have no way to determine [who committed] these attacks. We would like these attacks to stop,” he said, answering a corresponding question from a journalist. Haq stressed that the UN “shares the concern” of IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and “joins him in calling on all parties to cease fire around the station”
Macron said he had an “urgent” telephone conversation with Zelensky.
“I had an urgent phone conversation with Zelensky today. Today, the situation (in Ukraine) remains difficult. Ukraine continues to be bombed, the threat remains at the Zaporozhye NPP”-Macron
—————
Zelensky once again called on the West (begged, pleaded, implored) to accept Ukraine into NATO and the EU
” I urge you to support our applications for membership in the EU and the alliance,” Zelensky said, speaking via video link at a meeting of the NATO parliamentary assembly in Madrid.
————-
Germany sees no contradictions [or Hypocrisy] in the EU’s plans to buy gas from Azerbaijan, despite the fact that it may be of Russian origin.
Few days ago “Gazprom” signed agreement with SOCAR(The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan ),where Gazprom will supply up to 1 billion cubic m3 of gas to Azerbaijan until March 2023
34.5% -Industrial inflation in Germany in October
Anti-Russian sanctions,has become a decisive factor in high industrial inflation.
Price Increase:
Gas prices-151.2%
Electricity-137.7%
Fertilizers-113.1%
Fuel oil-76.2%
Petroleum products-34.6%
Fuel-30.8%
——————–
U.S. Presses Allies to Tighten Up Sanctions Enforcement on Russia
American officials travel the world and threaten Russia’s partners, trying to force them to impose sanctions against Moscow and trade controls.
This is reported by The Wall Street Journal with reference to senior Western officials. “Their mission is to quietly threaten the resisting authorities and firms with punitive measures, to collect information about networks suspected of delivering goods to Russia,” the publication says.
——-
Italy intends to extend civil and military support to Ukraine for the whole of 2023
“The Italian government will ask parliament to vote for a new law on civil and military assistance to Ukraine for the whole of 2023″Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto-Reuters
————–
#Northukrainian Direction (MAP):
▪️ Two sabotage groups are operating in the #Denisovichi and #Yakovetskoy earea on the #Kiev route. One of the SRGs crossed the state border with #Belarus and reached the #Polessky Nature Reserve.
▪️ In parallel, Ukrainian deminers in the #Sumy region have started demining the area near the border with #Russia.
(in preparation for infiltration/direct attacks against Russian territory?)
————-
A draft statement “In connection with the shooting of Russian POWs by Ukrainian nationalists” has been submitted to the Duma;
▪️ The US newspaper NYT has confirmed the authenticity of video footage of the shooting of Russian POWs in #Makeyevka, LPR, which appeared online on 18 November;
▪️ The change of power in #Ukraine is not one of the goals of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the Russian president’s spokesman said;
▪️ Peskov also revealed that there are no discussions in the Kremlin regarding the prospects for a second wave of partial mobilisation in Russia;
——-
WSJ
U.S. Presses Allies to Tighten Up Sanctions Enforcement on Russia🤡
U.S. officials are jetting around the globe in a quiet diplomatic push to get Russia’s major trading partners to enforce sanctions and trade controls, as exports to the country pick up after diving in the weeks following the special military operation.
But so-called sanctions leakage—in which weak enforcement enables banned finance and trade to flow—is undermining the ‘sanction’ campaign, aiding Russia’s economy .
———-
(truth or propaganda?)
A telling case of unexpected revelation in Lviv. A Ukrainian woman (moreover, a Ukrainian-speaking woman) was expelled from a minibus for… defending Donbas and its inhabitants.
Moreover, she dared to point out to those around her that all the achievements of Lviv itself came at the expense of Russia and the Soviet past. Houses, enterprises, energy infrastructure – all this is the merit of the USSR. And you have to be pigs not to thank that time and the people who lived then for all this. And Ukraine, she said, had only destroyed everything given to it.
“The Russians built you enterprises, gave you flats. And you are prostitutes. You rebuild Donbas, Luhansk. And your children scattered to Europe. And Russia was and will be.”
It seems that her sensible thoughts were only a voice crying in the wilderness. At the same time as the AFU soldiers are dying in this desert at the front. And to survive they have only one option – to lay down their arms and raise ✋🤚
https://t.me/+PUg0rQrZdiw4YWFh

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 22 2022 5:26 utc | 299