Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 20, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-204

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Comments

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 20 2022 20:35 utc | 90
Quite so Peter.
As well as quietly upgrading & fine-tuning conventional arms manufactures efficiency & capacity to be able to promptly stage to near war production & already extant beyond massive war materiel arsenals. Extensive preparation & development of Humint sources & assets throughout Ukraine & throughout EU/NATO, continuous identification & assigning prioritization of as many as possible AFU materiel/support/HQ/arsenal/infrastructure assets & AFU high value unit deployments re targeting list for destruction pending initiation of conflict. Continuous relentless ‘real’ training for WAR. Concurrent political & economic soft power hard work re RoW & likely allies, China, Iran … Turkiye:(?)

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 21:02 utc | 101

@ Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 20:55 utc | 99
Indeed, hence Bulgarian(?) … Apologies, indeed, back of beer coaster, stream of concious scratch notes, lack of sleep.
Regarding the ‘actual’ options & outline, parallels re ’73 ?
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 21:06 utc | 102

Outraged @ 63
I haven’t yet noticed young boys in the UAF lines but I will watch. Boys that young are not going to be there for fighting. They will cook and clean (probably badly) and be available for (ahem) personal service. The Azov types are mostly oriented towards that.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 20 2022 21:28 utc | 103

@ oldhippie | Nov 20 2022 21:28 utc | 103
I’ll dig up links if you wish, have to go to an appointment soon, so a day or so re links. Just horrific, seeing lads handling PPk’s, RPGs, grenades, huge delighted grins, in the trenches filmed by the ever selfie addicted Ukie troops, captured and reviewed after KIA by RF re aftermath post battlefield consolidation/exploitation.
Have seen two Spetnaz vids directly warning UAF to cease it, that all boys in armed contact will likely be killed as illegal combatants.
Harsh, but the boys unformed immature minds/personalities/consequential lifelong trauma will create monsters, & dangerous damaged goods for the rest of their lives. Child Soldiers is also a War Crime …
Farkin’, farkin’ Nazis. :((
Sorry. OUT
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 21:41 utc | 104

The Azov types are mostly oriented towards that.
Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 20 2022 21:28 utc | 103
—
I think they call them bacha nazi.

Posted by: Nobody | Nov 20 2022 21:44 utc | 105

@Greg Galloway –
Well, that’s quite the wrinkle (if true), isn’t it.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 20 2022 21:46 utc | 106

Question for those better informed in military matters than I:
Assuming the forces Russia has on hand after partial mobilization are sufficient for offensive operations, would it be advantageous for Russia to wait for Ukraine to launch its Zaporizhe offensive in order to wear down Ukrainian forces before launching its own offensive(s), or try to preempt the Zaporizhe offensive by launching its own offensive on another front?

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 20 2022 21:48 utc | 107

“Welt” (World) is a leading German newspaper. The first five headlines of today:
– Can Putin still win this war? – “Only if Trump comes back to power”.
– Why Russian soldiers are now stealing even Ukrainians’ bicycles
– “We were practically executed” – The mass death of Russian soldiers
– “1500 tanks lost – The Russians are paying a very high price”
– “Moscow must consider whether it wants to fall into the American trap”
One can only wonder what the result of such propaganda on peoples’ minds must be…

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 20 2022 21:49 utc | 108

Justin Trudeau is a groupie PM who likes to be associated with popular causes. In this case, because of the large Ukrainian diaspora, his new best friend is Zelensky. Nevertheless Canadians are suffering from inflation, partially attributable to sanctions, and we look across the north to Russia and it’s long arctic coastline. So our PM is getting lots of photo ops and sound bites but seems to be more worried about protecting Ukraine than Canadians.

Posted by: PBR Street Gang | Nov 20 2022 21:50 utc | 109

@108: “Welt” is Springer press like “Bild”. 100% transatlantic.

Posted by: Verdant | Nov 20 2022 21:53 utc | 110

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
The UN nuclear watchdog said some buildings, equipment, and systems at the plant, which is under Russian control, have been damaged but there has been nothing critical to nuclear safety and security.
“Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Twitter. “You’re playing with fire,” he added.
Dear Sarah Wagenknecht please ask again in the German Bundestag if
1) it is technically possible at all to verify, to assign and to prove in war zones which participant is firing rockets and grenades ?
2) if yes, whether the German army or forces within the NATO formations have acquired knowledge in the last months who fired shells and rockets at the nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhya in Ukraine?
3) and if so, whether these findings were published and if so, where ?
If the answer is the same as in the NS1 and NS2 question, that possible findings must not be made public for reasons of state, not even against the elected representatives of the people, then no-answer is also a clear answer.
The federal government is secretly in bed with nuclear terrorists, while it publicly pays homage to a commitment to humanism.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Posted by: marquesatheresa | Nov 20 2022 21:53 utc | 111

Since the Russians were driven from Zmiinyi Island in June, it has been established as a base for Ukrainian naval forces and is now the embryo of a forward operating area for the reconquest of Ukrainian Crimea. Approximately 20,000 Ukrainian troops occupy the island, kept secure by NATO air forces enforcing a no-fly zone in the western Black Sea.

Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112

@ S.P. Korolev | Nov 20 2022 21:48 utc | 107
UAF offensives don’t actually exist. Lost that minimal capability many months ago.
Only capable of localized attacks which have diminished over time. No ability to sieze defended/contested ground, nor hold it against determined counter-attack if they could.
Due men & materiel attrition to as little as: 1 MBT, 2 obsolete APCs, 5 Techicals(armed pickup trucks) & two scratch composite Inf Coys attacking without proper arty fire prep, little counter-battery fire capability, no AD, no air support, being slaughtered, & the survivors hightailing it out.
Rinse & repeat.
RF has total, absolute Strategic & Operational initiative & battlefield dominance at the FEBA & beyond, & can operationally do as they wish.
UAF ceased to exist months ago … along with their NCO & Junior/Senior tactical command officers, many times over.
‘Tis just throwing bodies ford to catch bullets & shell splinters.
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:04 utc | 113

Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112
An island 0f 0.170 square km (0.066 square mile) with 20.000 troops?

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 20 2022 22:04 utc | 114

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 20 2022 21:46 utc | 106
I have no idea whether it’s true or not! I found that Telegram post interesting.
Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 20 2022 21:48 utc | 107
Russia does have a problem of political decision (s). There is no certainty that the Kremlin is able to gather the will to win at all.
In my (humble) view, it is important not to react but to keep the initiative and wield the conflict rather than react and being wielded.
An obvious way to end the conflict radically would be a big armored push (12 division or 150.000 troops) from BELARUS to MOLDOVA (and beyond to Odessa and Black Sea) Russia does have the means to do so, but the will is rather doubtful.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 20 2022 22:05 utc | 115

Dani went off his meds

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Nov 20 2022 22:07 utc | 116

That is: 12 divisions or 150,000 troops …

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 20 2022 22:07 utc | 117

Passerby @ 108

One can only wonder what the result of such propaganda on peoples’ minds must be…

It makes them even dumber than they were before the war started. I always wondered how working people can become so stupid as to go to war for elites, now I know.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 22:09 utc | 118

@ Passerby | Nov 20 2022 22:04 utc | 114
@ Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112
Beat me to it, yet Dani is razor sharp. Brilliant informed satire.
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:10 utc | 119

Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112
Yesterday, I responded to one of your posts with ‘hilarious’. I either meant it truthfully if your were being comedic or sarcastically if you were being a troll. Now, I see the pattern of your posts…it was truthfully hilarious as are your other posts. Keep it up.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Nov 20 2022 22:14 utc | 120

… the next step will be waves of cheap drones from Ukrainian side. …
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 20 2022 16:44 utc | 24

That at least makes sense as a conjecture, even if you state it as a certainty. It’s difficult enough to form a coherent picture of where the drone conflict is right now let alone where it’s going.
There is some information about drones that were deployed before SMO but both side seem to be a tight lipped about recent developments … US secrecy around Phoenix Ghost seems a bit odd – I’m wondering if it has an anti-personnel mode (human targeting profile) because that is technically plausible and would be controversial enough to warrant suspiciously vague media coverage.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 20 2022 22:15 utc | 121

Passerby | Nov 20 2022 22:04 utc | 114
There is a vast complex of underground fortifications to accomodate the troops.

Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 22:18 utc | 122

@ Greg Galloway | Nov 20 2022 20:54 utc | 98
Suggest Dmitry Medvedev’s assigned role is bad cop, blunt PUBLIC attack dog, to Putin/Lavrov Good Cop. Long time demonstrated proven loyal associate of Putin & the middle-ranking ‘Siloviki’ from pre USSR collapse.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:20 utc | 123

@Posted by: marquesatheresa | Nov 20 2022 21:53 utc | 111
“Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately,”
This just cracks me up. Yes, whoever could it be?

Posted by: FVK | Nov 20 2022 22:29 utc | 124

outraged@93
That would have had to be one helluva large beer coaster for all that to fit on!

Posted by: Safe | Nov 20 2022 22:33 utc | 125

In light of EU-wide warnings of potential electricity “rationing” and the insane uptick in UA shelling of ZNPP (presumably a reckless play to regain control of the generating capacity), perhaps the UK is considering an electricity sharing arrangement with the EU that would involve depriving its own citizens?
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 20 2022 20:39 utc | 91
I’ve been thinking that for a while.
On gas, The cost may be high but there appears to be little risk on our gas supplies, Qatar is honouring its existing contracts (we also have excellent LNG reprocessing plants) and Norway’s pipelines into Europe are full so our supplies from them can’t be diverted, plus our own from the N Sea.
On electricity, not much problem with our NPP and conventional PP, or with wind unless, as pointed out by Hereward, a high settles over the N Sea for a week+. We also have an electricity cable in from Norway. In the past few years we have been able to buy cheaply from France due to their excess supply from their NPPs but that is no longer the case and we have been selling to them. This is an unknown potential problem as we may be able to cover it from our own, albeit more expensive, gas PP.
A couple of interesting supply to EU opportunities look to be arising this winter as there are both gas and electricity inter-connectors under the Channel. On gas we could use our grid to transfer either some of our gas or extra supplies from Norway (if those pipelines have capacity) or increase shipments into the Milford Haven LNG plant, into the EU. Also with electricity, we could divert some of ours or increase production to sell to the EU.
If any of this were to happen it would put the UK in an interesting negotiating position with Brussels as we have a few outstanding issues between us, N Ireland Agreement, Migrants across the Channel from France, electronic border access to name but three. Say no more!
As you suggest, warning the UK public that there may be power cuts could be a cover for plans being made to supply the EU.
Incidentally, I have suggested before that the US should step in as Germany’s White Knight and recommend that the NS2/2 pipeline be opened up to prevent a humanitarian disaster in Germany in say February. Its limited capacity is not enough to make a huge difference to US objectives but it would take the edge off this winter, especially if the Ukrainian pipeline continues to operate, as well as allow some refilling of storage next summer. If it were done under the current NS2 contract its possible that its price would apply, dramatically cutting Russia’s revenue compared to spot. Win Win for the US, heroes to the Germans plus cutting Russian profits.

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:36 utc | 126

Greg Galloway @ 115

An obvious way to end the conflict radically would be a big armored push (12 division or 150.000 troops) from BELARUS to MOLDOVA (and beyond to Odessa and Black Sea) Russia does have the means to do so, but the will is rather doubtful.

Ridiculous, Ukraine is too big and the Ukrainians whatever else have proven their moxie and are dug in so well that up to now have made battles bare 100 meter a day contests for the Russians.
Anything short of a million man army, and all the equipment and logistics necessary, and the Russians would over-extend their lines again like they did before Kharov, Liman and Kherson. Every city and town particularly Nikolaev would have to be take in hand to hand combat like Mariupol. The Belarus troops unlike Wagner/Checens/Donbas militias are completely unseasoned.
Territory taken would require being held, which they couldn’t do before with 200k men and they won’t be able to do now. Citizens along the way would have to be provided for and it’s winter. Belarus w/o those troops is open to invasion by Poland and the Baltics.
You can be sure there are duffel bags stuffed with $100 bricks being offered to generals and colonels in Belarus to surrender their battalions and companies the moment NATO makes their move from Poland. That’s why there are 80K Russian forces there, to prevent rouge commanders in Belarus from surrendering and/or effecting a coup on Lukashenko. IMO the forces in Belarus are pinned there.
Russia is doing what it’s doing because that’s the best they can do. They will take the Donbass then who the hell knows, but they won’t be marching to Odessa from Belarus.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 22:41 utc | 127

@ Thrasyboulos 68
The USUKIS idea of a black Swan is the perfect lie, bombing a fertiliser store with a mininuke, or stealth shooting down of a passenger jet.
The Russian idea of a black Swan is to ignite the sleeping Muslim world against the tyranny of USUKIS lies.
I know which of the two will take two months to leave the headlines, and which of the two will totally destroy the Anglosaxon empire for once and for all.
The devil’s plan is weak, bread and gladiator circuses. The US has no concept of history, no comprehension at all of their own seedy decline and their imminent fall at the hands of the Muslim world they have persecuted for so long.
The clue is in the word ‘ maidan ‘.
What is an Arabic word doing in Ukraine?
” Let them try ” President Putin. The US has self- dispelled the myth that they varese ahle kitab / people of the Book by spreading Paganism and racist Nazism.
Better for them if they had left their greed for finishing off Russia , with Woden worshipping nazis, as they have no idea of what this message says about who they really are , and what has to be done about them.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 20 2022 22:42 utc | 128

War will end when crypto crashes

Posted by: mcohen | Nov 20 2022 22:44 utc | 129

@ Passerby | Nov 20 2022 22:04 utc | 114
@ Dani | Nov 20 2022 21:58 utc | 112
Beat me to it, yet Dani is razor sharp. Brilliant informed satire.
Peace
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:10 utc | 119
C’mon guys keep up. Dani is breaking news again. Surely you’ve spotted that Ukraine has, over the past few months, constructed three 15 floor barracks (with advanced high output food production units (as per Singapore) and a fresh water desalination plant on the island?

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:45 utc | 130

Assuming the forces Russia has on hand after partial mobilization are sufficient for offensive operations, would it be advantageous for Russia to wait for Ukraine to launch its Zaporizhe offensive in order to wear down Ukrainian forces before launching its own offensive(s), or try to preempt the Zaporizhe offensive by launching its own offensive on another front?
Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 20 2022 21:48 utc | 107
If Russia continues as it has been, then it will do the former, attacking Ukrainian units as they form up to attack, then allowing the Ukrainians to advance into Russian artillery/aircraft killing zones.
But General Armageddon may have different ideas.

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:55 utc | 131

@ Safe | Nov 20 2022 22:33 utc | 125
Well met.
When one drinks Guinness, with a raw muscle, occasionally skip multiple glasses & just go for a Jug, sometimes a keg, hence larger(virtual) beer coasters. Efficiency & economy of effort combined with a lower total cost. Less messy too. 😉
Any comments ? Response ?
May I get you something at the bar, or a favorite track on the jukebox ?
Peace
@ JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 22:45 utc | 130
LOL.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:57 utc | 132

Petri kohn at no.1
In 2013 bitcoin began to head towards the peak at the start of the ukr/rus war.
As soon as it peaked russia attacked,using crypto to fund the war.That is the real reason.
Notice how crypto started to decline as the war progressed.
Now all the crypto is sold off and the russians are stuck in the folded crane.
Hahahahahahaha.

Posted by: mcohen | Nov 20 2022 22:59 utc | 133

Dani @ 122

There is a vast complex of underground fortifications to accomodate the troops.

Then why didn’t the Ukrainian troops there hunker down and hold it last March, or why didn’t the Russians afterwards? Why wasn’t the battle of Azovstol replayed there?
But should there be a James Bond Spector volcano island “vast complex” there the Ruskies have bunker busting hypersonics that would make roasted termites out of the “troops accommodated” there.
So much for the Normandy Invasion from Snake Island to Crimea, but thanks for the fun comic book scenario to play with.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 23:00 utc | 134

JohninMK @ 126
Thanks, very informative. UK is nuts to be so tied to the continent for power, it’s like handcuffing yourself to a radiator. Part of the neoliberal globalist prison plan.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 23:11 utc | 135

The other day a Ukrainian official suggested that Ukrainians make plans to spend their winter in warmer weather.
I would be curious on reports of the civilians in and around Kiev, Lvov et al. How many areas are without power, water and heat? And is there any movement of civilians? Is there any sign of functioning businesses? I have heard of small anti-government demonstrations in Odessa. Any more information on that?
As far as the winter weather being equally difficult for the two military sides to function, having no air force and very little fuel for their vehicles, and all the other reported shortages in Ukraine are much more disastrous for Ukraine.

Posted by: Bob In Portland | Nov 20 2022 23:13 utc | 136

Thanks, very informative. UK is nuts to be so tied to the continent for power, it’s like handcuffing yourself to a radiator. Part of the neoliberal globalist prison plan.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 23:11 utc | 135
Very few countries are not tied to someone for power, but we are not “tied to the continent for power”, Norway not normally being regarded as part of the ‘continent’. We have taken very little Russian gas, either pipeline or LNG since 2019. We mainly bought French electricity as it was cheaper than firing up one of our gas PP.

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 23:24 utc | 137

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 21:41 utc | 104
Ukraine does use teenagers in the front. That is a fact.
“In Ukraine the sight of teenagers on the front line is not uncommon.
– Kids of highschool age charging against Russian lines like if they had taken some “substances” that makes them to believe they are invincible.”

https://t.me/thearcangel/16245
The ukie special forces (GUR) guy on the video says that he was surprised to see them appear on the front. They are used as part of “diversionary groups”. The teenagers are brainwashed from the beginning, which is why they are easy to get along.
They use some kind of drugs, enabling them to feel invincible. They might charge into Russian lines and take a hit/bullet into the alpha zone, or head or chest area and still keep going. Only after a second hit they drop for good.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 20 2022 23:26 utc | 138

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 22:41 utc | 127
The goal of any war is the destruction of enemy forces.
Most Ukie forces are in Donbass and on the east bank of the Dnieper.
A big Russian Southbound push would cut Ukie forces from their western supplies, and lead to opportunities of destruction of foes.
I think 12 divisions might be enough do the work on the Western bank, bypassing Kiev, along the line Korosten/Jitomir/Vinnitsia/Tiraspol.
If not, the “Stavka”, has to figure out which number is the right one and raise it’s punch to that level.
Of course anything we write is public so they probably wouldnt follow such advice. I just hope Russian generals at least have some alternate plan to severe Ukraine army supply lines.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 20 2022 23:38 utc | 139

@138
Quite true. Bouncers know this well: if they knock out a drunk he won’t return, if they knock out someone under cocaine or methamphetamine they do return (for a second knock-out).
Drugs make people run into machine gun fire. But they also make people kill without a second thought. As far as I know, Russia does not use drugs for its soldiers (perhaps they do for long-endurance duties or special operations though) but Ukraine certainly does. There still isn’t, as far as I know, a comprehensive study on the use of drugs in the 20th century wars by the Western forces. Anyhow, lots of drugs available to make a person inhuman.

Posted by: Anthony | Nov 20 2022 23:46 utc | 140

Petri Krohn @ 1, James @ 20:
In 2013, Viktor Yanukovych was President of Ukraine. He was painted in the Western media as pro-Putin and pro-Russian though in reality he was looking out for No 1 and going with whatever side offered him a better deal and which he figured he could benefit from personally. He only had another two years before presidential elections in 2015, at which he probably would have been thrown out for incompetent and corrupt leadership, and replaced by another run-of-the-mill corrupt Ukrainian politician, probably Julia Timoshenko.
Indeed, what stayed his hand from signing the EU / Ukraine Association Agreement in November 2013 was Russia offering membership in the Eurasian economic union along with financial assistance and maybe various other sweeteners. Yanukovych was warned by his own advisors (and perhaps by Moscow) that the EU / Ukraine Assocation Agreement offered no guarantee of EU membership and/or joining the Schengen Zone (for visa-free travel) even if after a certain number of years Ukraine could comply with most conditions in the AA which included complying with EU regulations and standards. (Among other things, that would have meant Ukraine ripping up its entire railway network and sending all its train carriage stock to the scrapyard, because the railway line network and carriage stock were based on Russian gauge standards, not EU gauge standards – even though other EU members like Finland and Spain had not been required to do the same before joining the EU.)
It was Yanukovych’s reluctance to sign the AA that gave the green light (though Yanukovych could not have known) to the protests in Kiev that became the Maidan Revolution which itself devolved into the violence against Ukrainian police and protesters alike that threatened Yanukovych’s life and forced him to flee to Russia in February 2014.
Petri, are you saying that Russia should have meddled in Ukraine’s domestic affairs and foreign policy before February 2014? We could go the whole hog and say Russia should have stopped Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and even Finland, from joining the EU – all these countries had been part of the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire in the past.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 20 2022 23:46 utc | 141

Bob In Portland | Nov 20 2022 23:13 utc | 136
No sign of mass movement of population yet, but there may be restrictions like availability of fuel for vehicles or capacity on trains. There seems to be enough power available to keep society operating in most of the country.
As to the demos, once the SBU became involved not surprisingly the demos were snuffed out. The main organiser was arrested but released after he publicly announced that he was a naughty boy and wouldn’t do it again. The same will no doubt apply elsewhere.
The winter weather is not equal for both sides. Russian is still pretty much fully equipped with its winter proof armour and military standard transport, Ukraine has lost much of theirs with civilian trucks, buses and ‘technicals’ becoming more important. Not sure if Australian Bushmasters or MRAPs designed for Iraq are good for -10C and icy surfaces. Plus they don’t have maintenance depots any more to change fluids to low temp versions or fit winter tyres. Also as winter bites low temperature diesel with additives become important, I’m sure this is no problem for the Russians but it must be a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainians.

Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 20 2022 23:50 utc | 142

Three things that are inadvisable:
1) Tugging on Superman’s Cape.
2) Pee-ing against the wind.
3) Fighting a Winter War with Russia.

Posted by: cybervigilante | Nov 20 2022 23:52 utc | 143

“Ukraine built a massively fortified line in the Donbass then massed tens of thousands of troops behind the line in 2021. At that point Russia had to act. In hindsight, they should have acted much sooner.”
Posted by: Mike R | Nov 20 2022 15:46 utc | 15
Oil prices began to crash in late 2014 and by 2016, Russia’s economy and government revenue were severely impacted. Recovery began in 2018, allowing for stretched budgets to recover but then came an even worse oil crash in 2020 with recovery toward normal levels beginning in 2021. There would not be much financial margin of safety before late 2021. External events determined timing.

Posted by: First Time Poster | Nov 20 2022 23:54 utc | 144

Outraged @ 63 and 104, Old Hippie @ 103, Unimperator @ 138:
Most likely the teenagers on the front lines are being given Captagon – the same drugs given to ISIS fighters in Syria a decade ago and which ISIS themselves were manufacturing. Unimperator, I think this is what you are looking for.
I had heard also that women including pregnant women are being drafted into the Ukrainian army though at present I cannot point you to any sources. I think the draft will be by stealth: perhaps women in certain occupations (such as engineering, IT, surveying, medicine, nursing) are being drafted or at the very least not permitted to leave Ukraine, and then maybe gradually the draft will extend to all women over the age of 18 years.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 20 2022 23:56 utc | 145

LightYearsFromHome @ 135

Thanks, very informative. UK is nuts to be so tied to the continent for power, it’s like handcuffing yourself to a radiator. Part of the neoliberal globalist prison plan.

The electrical interconnects from the UK are:
France – 4GW
Dutch – 1GW
Irish ICT(Scotland-N Ireland) – 500MW
E-W ICT (Wales-Ireland) – 500MW (max)
Nemo ICT (Belgium) – 1GW
Norway – 1.4 GW
The maximum demand in the UK is around 45-50 GW, so these interconnects are mostly used for load-balancing wind turbine production.

Posted by: Hereward | Nov 20 2022 23:56 utc | 146

@ unimperator | Nov 20 2022 23:26 utc | 138
Indeed & it is absolutely abhorrent. Find … discussing it … distressing.
On top of that the missing unrecorded KIA children will NOT be reported KIA, so the Ukies can continue to loot their AFU soldat paybooks. Hence the children’s parents will never know their fate, or at least for many many years to come.
The Ukies have run regular camps where the adventures are mil obstacle courses, cleaning, maintenance, marksmanship & real fire practice from different positions re various weapons from pistols to AKs to LMGs … including conditioning re reaction to surprise grenade explosions nearby. This been the case for school, summer & adventure camps for 8 years now mixed boys & girls. The vids exist.
Have they then deployed girls 10 & up too ???
Bustard scum. 🙁

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 0:06 utc | 147

@ Jen | Nov 20 2022 23:56 utc | 145
Conditioning, repetitive Mil Skills training, brainwashing/programming, then captagon to top it off.
Intentional, pre-planned, deliberate, inhuman absolute farkin’ EVIL !!!
Sorry, that’s it for me. going offline.
OUT.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 0:12 utc | 148

With all this talk of drafts and army size, one thing that does not make sense to me is that the countries in question have populations well in excess of what was available during WWI and yet the army sizes and range of available recruits are significantly smaller. What gives?
For example: Imperial Germany at the outset of WWI had a population of ~65Mil and mustered around 14Mil soldiers during the course of the war and yet THE Ukraine has a pop of around 25-30Mil (depening upon how many have fled) and they are scraping the bottom of the barrel with the drafting of a few hundred thousand. Futhermore an offensive with ~40k massed soldiers is considered large. None of this makes sense.

Posted by: me | Nov 21 2022 0:18 utc | 149

As usual on point
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1594385456375930880?s=20&t=f8SMJhL0RoF5OpgYbWn1eQ
“Full scale war hasn’t even started yet
Quote Tweet
Dagny Taggart
@DagnyTaggart963
·
6h
Russia fired more than 4,700 missiles at Ukraine in 270 days of full-scale war – Zelensky.”
——————
We are winning the online pr war. The dogs are dead.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 21 2022 0:18 utc | 150

Thanks @all for the responses to my query.
I lean towards JohninMK’s perspective @131 that Russia will likely use the failure of a Ukrainian offensive to go on the offensive themselves. Thus we are unlikely to see any ‘big arrow moves’ from Russia until Ukraine commits a large force to capture an adequately defended part of Russian territory. If this offensive never comes (as Outraged @113 suggests) it may be a sign that we are approaching a ‘freezing’ of the conflict around the current line of contact.

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Nov 21 2022 0:20 utc | 151

Slavyangrad reported on Rishi visiting Ukraine -and added the claim that Britain has actually bought a billion dollars worth of Russian oil, using tanker to tanker transfers, since March.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 21 2022 0:20 utc | 152

I wonder what police interrogators and body language experts might have to say about this footage, in which Zelensky doubles down on his claim that Russian missiles landed in Poland even after it was completely busted with physical evidence.
https://sonar21.com/ukraines-epic-fail-at-manufacturing-a-false-flag/

Posted by: Thirdeye | Nov 21 2022 0:34 utc | 153

Outraged @93–
Nice set of Op Plans. Problem is the fanaticism of Nazis and their unwillingness to surrender or allow others to do so. Second issue is speed of Op and D-day timing as current weather forecasts suggest solid frozen ground won’t arrive until after Solstice if not later. Meanwhile, the paralyzing of Ukraine will continue plus attrition along current FEBA.
Beginning of December will mark two months since the mobilization order meaning most of those recalled will have finished their training and integration into their units and be in the process of arriving at their assembly points. How well this process is masked from Western intel will be discovered once the offensive is launched. Otherwise, there’s not much to do but read the daily Clobber Reports and observe the political mayhem within the EU and UK.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 21 2022 0:42 utc | 154

I don’t care anymore to see fools, posting their nonsense on the Net.
Some idiot really thinks a country can survive with all its infrastructure destroyed?
Of course, Russia could have destroyed everything like the American assassins did in Iraq. But I think that Putin and the leaders of Russia thought that the Nazis in Kiev would not be such imbeciles and idiots. Wait a little bit more! What lies ahead will be the hell these Nazis never imagined in their lives. NATO/US/EU know this, and are doing everything to get the clown who threw Ukraine into the abyss to start negotiating.
Idiots still cannot understand that today Russia is not just fighting the Nazis in Ukraine, but 30 countries?
And many of these countries have already put troops on the ground disguised as “volunteers” and mercenaries.
VICTORY will be difficult, painful and will cost the lives of many boys, victory is SURE!
As a Brazilian, I have no doubts.
Long live the fighters of civilization.

Posted by: Iza | Nov 21 2022 0:52 utc | 155

@ Exile 238 in the previous thread
You wanted to know if things are really that bad in Germany because of the power supply. I have a nice toy for you, with which you can check it yourself. Before that, a few introductory words.
Our politicians are convinced to be smarter than physics. Even though the political leaders often have neither a professional education nor a degree. They were also not attentive enough in school. Otherwise, they would know that at every second exactly as much electricity must be generated as is consumed in order to keep the grid frequency of 50 Hz stable. Small deviations up or down, i.e. 49 Hz or 51 Hz, lead to emergency shutdowns.
Germany wants to be the world champion in renewable energy and the politicians think that if you build extra wind turbines and shut down coal-fired power plants, it will somehow work. Even my little son understands that it doesn’t matter whether I have 100 or 1,000,000 wind turbines. If the wind doesn’t blow, there’s no electricity. And the wind only blows for 2,000 hours at most in Germany. But the year has 8760 hours.
Where does the electricity come from in the remaining 6760 hours? Now we come to the dirty little secret of green technology in Germany. While we shut down our nuclear power plants and coal-fired power plants, nuclear power from France and coal-fired power from Poland should supply us. And the gas power plants. A large part of the gas from Russia is needed for electricity production. France can’t help us because more than half of their nuclear power plants are broken. The Poles don’t have enough coal. They got it from Russia and they don’t want it anymore.
But it is even worse. There is no national power grid. It’s a European interconnected grid. A blackout in one country can therefore drag the whole of Europe into the abyss. While people were happy to have Ukraine integrated in March, they are now realizing that the idea was probably not such a good one after all. Experts now believe that a Europe-wide blackout could occur. Duration 2 to 4 weeks. If that happens, we’ll all be living in the Stone Age. Not like in the Middle Ages. At that time, people still had the tools and knowledge that no longer exist today. Except for the Amish in the USA.
Here you can see how the power generation in Germany is composed. https://www.smard.de/home If you click on the box “Compare market data interactively”, you can choose any time period. The upper red line shows the required electricity. Below it, you can see how much electricity was generated and from which sources. You can see that gas and nuclear power play an important role. You can also see that the generated electricity is not always sufficient. So it had to be imported.
It is actually a matter of luck that our power grid still works. This is shown by the number of redispatch measures. Redispatch is intervention in the transmission system to prevent a collapse. Fifteen years ago, there were only 3 of these per year. This year alone there have been 10389 to date, so about 32 per day to prevent a blackout or brownout. It’s a dance on a razor’s edge that could end any day.

Posted by: Uwe | Nov 21 2022 0:57 utc | 156

I’ve noticed in the last few “clobber list” MoD postings that the phenomena of ukies Not Advancing along such and such line is occurring. I think we’ve seen the last of ukie offensive maneuvers. I’m on the lookout for items describing russian forces “repositioning” themselves into thinly defended ukie positions.

Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 21 2022 1:06 utc | 157

Uwe @156–
Excellent! Thanks for your comment!

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 21 2022 1:07 utc | 158

There is, until today, no “magic” that the US/EU can do to replace “dirty” (cheap) energy, much less Russian gas, which is the cleanest and most economical.
When the colonies of Europe and its people wake up to the reality of FACTS, Ursula von der Leyen will be hung from a rope in a public square.

Posted by: Iza | Nov 21 2022 1:09 utc | 159

Some additional info on UK energy sources and resources.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_Kingdom

Posted by: Bonami | Nov 21 2022 1:54 utc | 160

@mir 149
One of the great achievements of Prof. Dr. Dr. Gunnar Heinsohn of Bremen, Germany, emeritus, is the introduction of the “war index,” which describes future demographic changes. The war index of a country is defined as the ratio of the number of young men aged 15 to 19 to the number of men aged 55 to 59. The old will soon leave their jobs to make way for the young. With a war index < 1, as prevails in Germany and other developed countries, the next generation will find enough jobs. Excerpt from an article by Heinsohn, Feb. 22, 2022. "We don't see demonstrations in Russia for the conquest of Ukraine. There are no young men marching through Moscow or Petersburg expressing their willingness to sacrifice. Hardly anyone wants to die for Vladimir and Holy Russia. Their homeland is one of the shrinking nations, where the average age will rise from 24 to 40 between 1950 and 2021. The war index stands at around 0.7. For every 1,000 men between the ages of 55 and 59, there are only 700 youngsters between 15 and 19. The nation as a whole fears losses because a family line is wiped out with each casualty. Individuals, on the other hand, feel no inclination to die heroically because there are plenty of options. This is different in countries with a war index of 6, such as Mali or Yemen, where 6,000 youngsters compete for the positions of 1,000 old people and quickly realize that there is not enough for everyone. If the way out into emigration is then closed, rebellions or even revolutions begin - under noble ideals - which by no means eat their children but their brothers until a balance is reached. When America's commander-in-chief Mark Milley announced on February 5 that Putin would kill some 15,000 Ukrainians in his invasion, but that he himself would also lose 4,000 men, this had to worry him more than all the Western announcements of sanctions. Ukraine is also teetering demographically. It is raising its average age from 28 to 41 between 1950 and 2021 and is on comparably shaky ground in the war index. There may be more will to survive and be free than on the Russian side, but the willingness to accept losses will quickly fade. If Putin wants to triumph without losing thousands of soldiers, he must increase Ukrainian fear. He is doing so by having virtually all troops still operational at all threaten their borders. A shrewd adversary would attack him precisely where he has rendered himself defenseless. But he need not fear NATO. More than a fishing accident damaging the Nordstream pipeline is unlikely to be considered. Ukraine knows, of course, that Putin has 12,000 tanks. But it also knows that he cannot lose even 300 of them along with 900 to 1,200 soldiers burning in them. He would have mothers and widows in front of the Kremlin. Even under communism - in the Afghan war from 1979 to 1989 - women were not afraid to protest against the death of 13,000 men in the end. Putin is revered for conquering Crimea in 2014 without firing a single shot. 'Without the loss of a single soldier' translated the Home Front." https://www.wiwo.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-putin-will-siegen-aber-nicht-kaempfen/28093650.html

Posted by: Uwe | Nov 21 2022 2:08 utc | 161

Regarding the latest article by John Helmer, it appears that the Dutch globalists who are destroying their own farms are moving their pigsties into the former court rooms and making them into Animal Farms in which the head-pig judge rules not by law, evidence or reason then by position of Head Pig.

Posted by: Kiza | Nov 21 2022 2:23 utc | 162

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 20 2022 16:44 utc | 24
waves of cheap drones from Ukrainian side. …
Cheap? CHEAP? Nothing made in the West is CHEAP!
Not when a Pentagon procured hammer costs a million dollars.
(Unless they’re buying straight off AliBaba)

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 2:49 utc | 163

The Intercept today has a piece on one of the CIA sponsored death squad units in Afghanistan.
https://theintercept.com/2022/11/20/taliban-afghanistan-zero-unit-migrants/
That is the constant factor in these US proxy wars- CIA torturers, terrorists, death squads. For an Empire that has the gall to talk of Rules and Human Rights this extraordinary impunity-it has been going on since day one- is a testament to the willing accomplices who constitute the media and the intelligentsia in the United States.
There could be no more appropriate monument to the American Intellectual than the torture complex at Guantanamo Bay.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 2:58 utc | 164

“..When one drinks Guinness, with a raw muscle..” Outraged
This is about the tenth time this week I have seen a similar post.
We all know what muscles are. And nobody would think of putting one in a glass of stout even Guinness (The Poor Man’s Murphys).
The word is MUSSEL. On a subject as basic as this wikipedia is reliable
“Mussel (/ˈmʌsəl/) is the common name used for members of several families of bivalve molluscs, from saltwater and freshwater habitats. These groups have in common a shell whose outline is elongated and asymmetrical compared with other edible clams, which are often more or less rounded or oval…”

Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 3:11 utc | 165

“One can only wonder what the result of such propaganda on peoples’ minds must be…”
Passerby@108
Do Germans still buy printed newspapers? Or are they read on the internet? If the latter do people subscribe to them monetarily?
The obvious response to stories like those listed is to stop buying the paper.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 3:20 utc | 166

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 22:10 utc | 119:
Beat me to it, yet Dani is razor sharp. Brilliant informed satire.
LOL brilliant Dani – and Outraged – I’ve caught up on your posts from previous threads, excellent.
Peace
Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 22:18 utc | 122:
Don’t forget the tunnel to Sevastopol those 20,000 troops are digging from Snake Island, ready by December if I understand the Ukros plans for the triumphant ‘return’ of Crimea…
Posted by: Safe | Nov 20 2022 22:33 utc | 125:
Huge beer coaster or perhaps Outraged had access to some secret Ukie ‘hypersonic miniaturization’ tech LOL
Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 21 2022 0:42 utc | 154:
Great to see you posting again!
🙂
QK

Posted by: Qolotlh Kernow | Nov 21 2022 3:24 utc | 167

Bob In Portland | Nov 20 2022 23:13 utc | 136 – Ukraine still has functioning live webcams. You can even scroll back about eight hours on some of the feeds. Here’s one (of many) on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2gC37ILQmk
The camera numbers in upper right are replaced with locations every few minutes. You can scroll back in time ~8 hours using the Play (time mark) bar. For the last few days: light traffic in Kiev, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Krivy Rog, nighttime: rolling blackouts or loss of live feed for hours at a time. 5 AM there as I post this, so little traffic anywhere. Snowing in Lviv, Kiev and Dnipro.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Nov 21 2022 3:26 utc | 168

Posted by: Uwe | Nov 21 2022 2:08 utc | 161
Ukraine knows, of course, that Putin has 12,000 tanks. But it also knows that he cannot lose even 300 of them along with 900 to 1,200 soldiers burning in them. He would have mothers and widows in front of the Kremlin. Even under communism – in the Afghan war from 1979 to 1989 – women were not afraid to protest against the death of 13,000 men in the end.
What I can never understand about rationalizations like this (and variations thereof) is why they never consider the costs of the alternative.
They think Putin fears the loss of some portion of tanks or soldiers. They should consider he might fear Russia turning into Yugoslavia more.
Russians themselves need to awaken to what the West has planned for them – they need only look at Libya, Iraq, Syria to know their future if Putin loses.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 3:31 utc | 169

The Kherson water supply.
Scenes like this: From outer space or a spiritual realm what must we look like? For a century… a functional, vibrant, sustaining city. And now. Africa-tier.
(Of course acknowledging Africa is Africa-tier for fundamentally the same reasons/ orchestrators.)
https://t.me/xoxol_uk/8177

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 3:36 utc | 170

Thanks PavewayIV | Nov 21 2022 3:26 utc | 168
Was looking thru telegrams of all the cities in blackness for Bob… but I keep getting distracted.
The acres and acres and acres of cemeteries. All those thousands and thousands of blue and yellow flags, and 2metre high pyres of beautiful fresh flowers.
That’s the tell.
The cemeteries really whack me in the feels. There’s a telegram post with a babuska looking at the scene.
That’s what Ukraine will become. A nation almost entirely of elderly women, all mourning.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 3:45 utc | 171

Arch Bungle | Nov 21 2022 2:49 utc | 163
……”(Unless they’re buying straight off AliBaba)”.
Yep. That’s what’s happening. There’s many Ukrainian gofundme equivalent sites buying drones for their boys.
Probably Russia is doing similar.
I remember as a kid there was a suitcase in storage in the back room of all the woollen socks and scarves knitted by aunts for The Front. And cheery, generic, morale-boosting News From Home letters written to Our Boys. (Obviously never sent).
The drone supply is the 2022 equivalent.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 3:52 utc | 172

Mike Whitney at Unz on Ukraine. His article includes quotation from a yahoo 2015 piece
“..“The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials….
“The United States is training an insurgency,” said a former CIA official, adding that the program has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians.”
…the CIA and other U.S. agencies could support a Ukrainian insurgency, should Russia launch a large-scale incursion.
…“We’ve been training these guys now for eight years. They’re really good fighters. …representatives from both countries also believe that Russia won’t be able to hold on to new territory indefinitely because of stiff resistance from Ukrainian insurgents, according to former officials.
“If the Russians launch a new invasion, “there’s going to be people who make their life miserable,” said the former senior intelligence official…
“All that stuff that happened to us in Afghanistan,” said the former senior intelligence official, “they can expect to see that in spades with these guys.” (“CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades”, Yahoo News)
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/putins-sledgehammer/

Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 3:55 utc | 173

Jen | Nov 20 2022 23:46 utc | 141
thanks for the history lesson and context jen.. i appreciate it.. am signing off for the next day as i am tied up in the studio..

Posted by: james | Nov 21 2022 3:55 utc | 174

She’s of the social media generation.
She’s 18-24, So she knows precisely how to pose for a pic.:
A smirky, knowing smile; head slightly tilted, shoulders back and straight, so as her large, beautiful breasts strain against her tight t-shirt.
War is just an opportunity to pull on camo and look cute and sexy, holding a gun.
Next scene is an obviously dead and bloody corpse. Can’t say with certainty it’s her. But I think that’s the message.
https://t.me/xoxol_uk/8148

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 4:03 utc | 175

Reply to 173
The CIA can try that but at some point Ukraine will want heat and electricity back. And jobs. And food. Russia can leverage against any attempts at guerrilla war.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 21 2022 4:14 utc | 176

Ukraine.
November. Winter.is. Come.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1593946680390402048

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 4:15 utc | 177

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 20 2022 7:15 utc | 248
It is clear that Russia deliberately bombed the Polish border town of Przewodow this past weekend to test NATO unity. The Russian-made missile – which killed a pregnant women, two children, a farmer and two Polish firefighters – appears to have been intended to strike a nitrogen storage compound in the nearby Polish village of Nowosiolki. The resulting explosion would have rivaled the Beirut blast caused by Russian-produced nitrogen in 2020, but the missile was negligently programed by Russia and had incorrect coordinates inputted.
Photographs of a Ukrainian S-300 anti-aircraft missile purported to have been found at the scene circulating on social media appear to be Russian disinformation. Germany has offered to conduct enhanced air patrols over Polish airspace to prevent such attacks in the future as Russia pursues its illegal war against Ukraine.

Posted by: Dani | Nov 21 2022 4:19 utc | 178

there has been a photo of alleged dead murdered russian soldiers, lying face down. I cant locate that one now, however …
The American NYT reported that it confirmed the authenticity of video footage from the scene of the execution of Russian prisoners of war by the Ukrainian military
-OstashkoNews
Video via twitter/nitter
… the summary execution of surrendered, unarmed and defenceless soldiers. This is what @vonderleyen tells us #European values are. This is what you are paying for. Welcome to the new Europe.
https://nitter.net/i/status/1593689432133074951

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 21 2022 4:29 utc | 179

Ukrainian journalists write about expanding the powers of the military enlistment offices.
Now male citizens of Ukraine will not be able to marry or divorce, as well as purchase real estate. All because of the need to get a certificate from the military registration and enlistment office. For most Ukrainians, it is obvious that going to the military registration and enlistment office for such a document is associated with a high risk of receiving a summons instead of a certificate and getting into the army. . lol now thats some government overreach.

Posted by: hankster | Nov 21 2022 4:40 utc | 180

Rybar machine trans
How the Ukrainian media justify the execution of Russian soldiers in Makiivka
After the appearance on the Web of footage of the murder of Russian prisoners of war in Makiivka in the LPR, a media campaign was launched in Kiev in order to justify the crimes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To do this, they attracted a certain Thomas Tainer, who calls himself a former soldier of the Italian army, an expert on artillery and NATO.
In a commentary to the Ukrainian media, he stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were actually forced to shoot the fighters of the Russian Armed Forces due to the fact that one of them refused to surrender and showed up with a weapon. After that, members of the Ukrainian formations allegedly automatically opened fire on the rest of the unarmed people lying on the ground.prisoners, suspecting them of resistance.
🔻There is just one small detail: on the video from the murder scene, it is clearly visible that traces of blood and bullets hit all the bodies are in the head area. This means that everyone was killed in turn by an aimed shot in a calm environment, which completely excludes the version of a spontaneous execution.
The “expert” called by the Ukrainian media did not explain such an inconvenient fact. Which is not surprising, because what happened is clearly beyond his competence: although Tyner positions himself as a military specialist, in the early publications of Western publications, for some reason, he is listed only as a film producer, blogger or screenwriter.
If the Kyiv media, although extremely clumsily, tried to justify themselves for extrajudicial execution, then the APU reacted more simply: they reminded of the unspoken internal order not to get caught red-handed in the murder of prisoners. Which, by the way, appeared in the spring.
Under these conditions, it is somewhat reckless to expect from the Ukrainian formations a hint of humane treatment of those who have surrendered.
with the photo shot from above
https://t-me.translate.goog/rybar/41340?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 21 2022 4:42 utc | 181

Dani | Nov 21 2022 4:19 utc | 178
Clearly the optimum solution is for Germany to annex Poland.
SMO German style for Silesia. Let’s GoGoGo.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 4:47 utc | 182

🇷🇺 Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Marat Khusnullin spoke about the current situation with the restoration of Mariupol:
“In total, 28,000 builders work in the city. We are moving at a good pace, now we are restoring about 1,250 objects, while 150 houses have already been restored.
In general, we plan to complete our three-year plan for the restoration of multi-apartment housing in the city in 2 years!”

https://t.me/intelslava/41423

Posted by: Down South | Nov 21 2022 4:47 utc | 183

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 19-20 Nov 2022⚡️
#Belgorod Region:
▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled the settlements of #Shebekino, #Karabanovo, #Razumnoye and Nizhniy Olshanets in the #Belgorod region. At least 3 civilians were wounded and civilian infrastructure was damaged.
#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Kupyansk – #Svatovso section, the enemy made another unsuccessful attempt to storm Russian positions towards #Kislovka.
▪️ In the #Svatovo sector, Russian SRGs conducted a reconnaissance battle near the #Medvezhye tract. In the battle, the Russian forces destroyed one armoured vehicle and wounded at least five Ukrainian fighters.
▪️ The AFU took up a positional defence after several unsuccessful attempts to advance in the direction of #Chervonopopovka.
#Soledar Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk) area, units of the Wagner PMC blocked one unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade. After regrouping, the enemy attempted to regain the lost positions but failed and suffered significant losses.
The AFU command is redeploying additional forces due to the difficult situation in the area.
▪️ In the #Soledar area, fighting in the vicinity of the #Bakhmut – #Soledar highway is going on with varying success.
#Lugansk People’s Republic:
▪️ Ukrainian militants shelled #Lysychansk, Nizhnyaya Duvanka and #Kremennaya with HIMARS MLRS. At least three civilians were killed and five others wounded.
#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ Ukrainian militants have again hit #Gorlovka, #Ilovaysk, #Makeyevka, #Yasynuvata and Krasny Partizan. An aluminium profile factory in #Donetsk came under fire.
#Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):
▪️ Russian forces conducted several missile strikes on the Motor Sich plant in #Zaporozhye, where various components for the Ukrainian defence industry are produced.
▪️ Ukrainian militants, in turn, shelled the #Zaporozhye nuclear power plant again. Enemy shells landed in the area of the dry storage facility for spent nuclear fuel.
▪️ Ukrainian forces continue to accumulate reserves in the area, with personnel and equipment arriving at #Volnyansk, #Preobrazhenka and #Zaporozhye.
#Kherson Direction on Southern Front (MAP):
▪️ Russian forces destroyed an AFU fuel depot near the shipyard on Quarantine Island (Karantinny Ostrov) in #Kherson.
▪️ The enemy continues to entrench on the right bank of the #Dnipro River. Ukrainian Territorial Defence units were moved to #Belozerkha and #Novokaira.
▪️ The 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of the AFU has crossed the #Ingulets at Daryevsky Bridge and occupied the and occupied the #Nikolskoye – #Novotyaginka line.
▪️ Ukrainian authorities announced the evacuation of #Kherson.

https://t.me/sitreports/1055

Posted by: Down South | Nov 21 2022 4:49 utc | 184

Dani @112
What utter bullshit
Snake Island is .17sq km
No way in hell it can accomodate 20,000 Ukrainian troops

Posted by: Fran | Nov 21 2022 4:49 utc | 185

108
Welt is Axel Springer Verlag like Bild owned by KKR
It was once equivalent to Daily Telegraph but now Daily Express

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 21 2022 4:53 utc | 186

Bob in Portland 136
You wrote: “I have heard of small anti-government demonstrations in Odessa. Any more information on that?”
Bob — it’s actually against the law in Ukraine to voice a view that is different than the government position, so I have not heard from any of my contacts in Odessa about a willingness to openly protest. People are afraid to say anything that contradicts the government position because they could be turned in as a collaborator and put in prison.
All opposition political parties in Ukraine have been banned, and only television stations controlled by the government are operating. I don’t think you’re going to hear from the many people who actually oppose being forced to speak Ukrainian instead of their native Russian language in Odessa until it’s clear that Russia is going to keep their promise by capturing Odessa and bringing to justice the Right Sector thugs who murdered the anti-Maidan protesters in 2014.
What bothers me most is that I can see people in Odessa who are now repeating Nazi slogans and trying to blend in — many people are choosing to no longer remember the murder of the anti-Maidan protesters, no longer remember the civilians in the Donbas who have been killed by the Ukraine military, and only want to play it safe and try to survive. And it is not possible to have an open phone conversation with anyone because they all believe their calls are being monitored. I assume most of these people will regain their sanity if Russia prevails, but some of them seem to me like they will remain Nazis, repeating stupid slogans like ‘One nation, one language’ even though they grew up speaking Russian. It’s really surprising for me to see how human beings can be turned in to sheep when the government is in complete control and spews its propaganda every single day and does not allow any dissenting voices to be heard.
The Nazis in Ukraine, who are essentially ultra nationalists who have replaced the hate for Jews with hate for Russians (which they denigrated by calling them orcs), are in power in Ukraine. They surround Zelensky, hold key positions in the military, and I do not believe they will accept any peace negotiations that Zelensky might wish to engage in… they will kill him first.
So, in my view, the only solution is for Russia to capture Kiev, take control of the government, and use the television stations to let the people know that freedom will be returning to Ukraine and they have no reason to fear the Russian army. Of course, the Russian army will have to be large enough to cut off all supply lines and take Odessa, while holding off the remaining Ukrainian forces until they run out of ammunition and then surrender.
If this is going to happen, it will be in January. I am simply hoping that the Russian mobilization has been quietly continuing so that instead of adding 300,000 new personnel, it’s closer to 500,000. If so, I believe they could send a tank force due west just north of Zaporizhia in January, and possibly send 75,000 troops from Belarus to cut off Lvov supply lines.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 21 2022 4:56 utc | 187

NYT report
Videos Suggest Captive Russian Soldiers Were Killed at Close Range
“ It looks like most of them were shot in the head,” Dr. Rohini Haar, medical adviser at Physicians for Human Rights, said in an interview. “ There are pools of blood. That indicates that they were just left there dead. There appears to have been no effort to pick them up or help them.”
Dr. Haar noted that when they surrendered, the Russian soldiers had been lying down, apparently unarmed, with their arms outstretched or behind their heads. “They’re considered hors de combat, or noncombatants — effectively prisoners of war,” Dr. Haar said.
the international treaty that established the International Criminal Court says, “Killing or wounding a combatant, who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defense, has surrendered at discretion” is a violation of the laws of international armed conflict.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/21415
—-
Maybe the beginning of propaganda theme designed for cutting Ukraine off from support?
This is the opposite approach of the msm over the Bucha incidents for example.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 21 2022 5:02 utc | 188

@ bevin 173
All that stuff that happened to us in Afghanistan.
Eventually you become your enemies.
That is either because the things you hate about your enemies are projections of what you hate about yourselves, or, ‘ The sins of the fathers are visited upon the sons. By Whom?
Using you to mean one.
The West became the 24/7 spying totalitarian state that the Soviets were once famous for being. Now the US is boasting about its terrorist achievements.
Afghanistan is the only country in the world with zero tolerance of Americans.
Russia is with Afghanistan.
Let them try.

Posted by: Giyane | Nov 21 2022 5:05 utc | 189

Fran | Nov 21 2022 4:49 utc | 185
You should read ‘The Onion’ some more.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 21 2022 5:08 utc | 190

Fran | Nov 21 2022 4:49 utc | 185
Not above ground, no

Posted by: Dani | Nov 21 2022 5:13 utc | 191

LightYearsFromHome @ 66
They have 8 NPPs. Does the rest come from Polish coal, Russian gas and oil, power lines under the sea from EU? I have absolutely no idea, but unlike Germany I don’t sea how an island in the Atlantic can be so desperately tied to Russian energy that it will have to resort to rolling blackouts. I would love to know the details.
See for yourself:
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
The problem will come if there is a period of high pressure over the North Sea during the winter, these can last for a week or more. This will bring a period of cold and windless day. At times likes these the available wind power is at a minimum and demand a maximum.
Posted by: Hereward | Nov 20 2022 19:53 utc | 76

Doesn’t that show the UK is a net exporter of electricity? Where is the natural gas, is that CCGT? And that doesn’t break out the sources to see how much they may be dependent on natural gas which presumably will be up in price if they buy it without long term contracts.

Posted by: Simon | Nov 21 2022 5:14 utc | 192

Funny how people comment without detail. UK lacks gas storage capacity thanks to Governments 1997-2015 who blocked construction. N Sea Gas is piped to Belgium storage in Summer and bought spot by UK in winter.
There is an Interconnector between France and UK currently under repair. It uses the 1 hour time difference between UK and France to wheel peak power loads between countries. It is load-balancing
N Ireland gets its electricity from Irish Republic
Traditionally UK power sets were on Yorkshire Coalfields and wheeled power south but Thatcher started move towards gas sets in south which are costly to run but cheap to build
That is why UK is gas dependent to punish Miners strikes. LNG supply is mainly from Qatar followed by US
UK Grid is not as reliable as under CEGB because it lacks redundancy
Nuclear sets are old and contracts with government ensure huge revenue streams to Treasury due to overpriced electricity. Not just utilities making excess profit – as in Germany it is government too
Energy Prices are where Greens want them
Energy pricing is boosting Government revenues by using utilities as tax collectors. High energy prices reduce need for higher interest rates or taxes on incomes and cut consumption on imports

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 21 2022 5:43 utc | 193

Vid: From telegram. Will play without an account
https://t.me/readovkaworld/5013

Footage has emerged of Ukrainian nationalists brutally massacring captured Russian soldiers. In the video, the militants first surround a house, force all the Russian soldiers out of it, put them all on the ground, and then shoot them. The fighters did not even hide their faces.
At the moment of the brutal execution, all the soldiers were lying unarmed with hands behind their heads. At the end, the militants show, presumably, the dead body of one of the brutally murdered, and cynically ask how he’s doing. Presumably, all the executed were fighters of the Central Military District or the People’s Militia of the Donetsk and the Luhansk People’s Republics.
At the same time, video from a quadcopter showing the bodies had appeared earlier. At that time, Ukrainian propaganda tried to pass it off as an “artillery strike,” but now it is obvious that the fighters whose bodies are depicted in the footage were brutally shot at point-blank range by the nationalists.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 5:59 utc | 194

All that’s showing on cdnpoli is a video purportedly of Russian soldiers who refused to fight being arrested. On camera. 🙄 … Ya think?

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 21 2022 6:20 utc | 195

@james 174
“…i am tied up in the studio..”
Kinky, James. Very kinky.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 21 2022 6:30 utc | 196

@ Melaleuca | Nov 21 2022 5:59 utc | 194
The executed, surrendered POWs are LPR/DNR. See ‘Red’ armbands for tactical ID. The Ukies loathe the separatists even more than the so-called mongoloid RF orcs.
A contributing reason the LPR/DNR, given their modest numbers, is so effective in combat, is they know they are unlikely to receive any quarter.
It is as Sun Tzu would likely describe … unwise & ultimately a costly act for AFU.
You enrage & still the heart & harden the determination & grit of your enemies, yet especially for LPR/DNR ALL ground, everywhere, … is Deadly. Therefore will sell themselves at the the highest possible price everywhere, regardless. An unwise, costly & ultimately self-defeating strategy for AFU, in purely military strategy terms.
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 6:47 utc | 197

If you gaze into the abyss for long enough the abyss gazes back into you. Be careful that you don’t turn into a monster yourself by fighting monsters.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 21 2022 6:48 utc | 198

Newsweek : ” If Zelensky comes out in the future and says, ‘Russian weapons hit a school house or hit another civilian facility’—that could be questioned now”😁
“Ukraine has a very aggressive, forward leaning, social media driven communication style,” which is very effective.
” But there are flaws and problems with it and it’s a bit odd that Zelensky won’t backtrack in this case,” an expert told Newsweek, referring to the missile explosion that killed two people. “I think that there is sometimes a frustration with questions of accuracy coming from Kyiv about the war.”
“I don’t think Zelensky’s image would ever be impacted from this, however, I think his credibility would be hurt,” If he comes out in the future and said, ‘Russian weapons hit a school house or hit another civilian facility’—that could be questioned now,” said Dennis Fritz, retired U.S. Air Force Command Chief Master Sergeant.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/21422

Posted by: Down South | Nov 21 2022 6:48 utc | 199

@ Down South | Nov 21 2022 6:48 utc | 199
They are undoubtedly laying the groundwork narrative for a Ukraine coup supported by the US for the AFU commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, to seize power.
Shades of President Ngô Đình Diệm vs General Dương Văn Minh coming up.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 21 2022 6:59 utc | 200