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November 20, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-204
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IN 2013 RUSSIA DID NOT CARE ABOUT UKRAINE
Oleg Tsarev writes today: “After the speech (in the Rada on November 20, 2013), I approached one of my good friends – a journalist who was responsible for news stories from Ukraine for Russian federal channels. I asked him to broadcast this video in Russia. I said that it would be good if Russia knew in advance about what would happen in Ukraine. He answered me that Russia was not interested.
The full post:
On the preparation by the United States of the revolution in Ukraine.
Oleg Tsarev in 2013: Exactly nine years ago, from the rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada, I accused the US Embassy of preparing a coup in Ukraine. The nationalists were yelling so that I couldn’t hear myself. Thank God, the microphone is more sensitive than my ears, otherwise it would be impossible to make out what I’m saying.
My speech lasted as long as was allotted for the speech of the leader of the faction. From a formal point of view, I, as deputy head of the faction, had the right to do so. But in fact, my speech was not agreed with the leadership of the faction and the Party and was my personal initiative.
When I left the podium, an indignant Anna Herman rushed towards me, saying that I did not have the authority to blame the United States. Mikhail Chechetov rescued me, who overtook Herman, rushed towards me, hugged me, pushed Herman aside: “Finally, at least someone called a spade a spade!” After the speech, I went to my place in Dnepropetrovsk and returned to Kyiv at the request of the leaders of the Party already in the midst of the Maidan.
P.S. After the speech, I approached one of my good friends – a journalist who was responsible for news stories from Ukraine for Russian federal channels. I asked him to broadcast this video in Russia. I said that it would be good if Russia knew in advance about what would happen in Ukraine. He answered me that Russia was not interested.
https://t.me/olegtsarov/4157
The 3 minute speech is still online on YouTube.
Oleg Tsarev on the preparation by the United States of a revolution in Ukraine
All I can say is that many commenters here were more aware of the future, than the Russian leadership was. If Russia wanted to prevent World War 3, they should have done it in 2013.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
French government braces for possible winter power cuts
According to French power grid operator RTE, there is a high risk of pressure on the French network in January 2023, and Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is preparing for potential ‘rotating load shedding.’
The idea is that electricity may be cut off for two hours in certain geographical areas to relieve the network. The load shedding is said to be rotating because the blackout will not always affect the same regions.
” Our job is not to worry but to prepare,” explained the prime minister’s office.🤓
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/21278
Posted by: Down South | Nov 20 2022 14:47 utc | 2
Sorry for the repost, just posted in the last thread right at the cutover to this one.
RE: understanding Canadian willingness to go along..
You have to understand that Canada has a very large and well organized UKR diaspora. I know because my family came from UKR. As a young lad I had no idea that Russian language in UKR was a thing (obviously they speak Ukrainian), and among my family and the communities I have met the level of rabid anti-Russian sentiment is very high. The diaspora is proportionately heavily weighted towards western UKR aka Lvov etc. And now they have influence.
Most of Canada simply doesnt follow closely enough.. and those that do are not organized. Just the constant media line and everyone either being set for easy life (property owners from earlier) or have so many things on their plate that there us no mental juice left for issues like UKR after protesting e.g. ridiculous fiscal policy, union crackdowns, govt incompetence, and the widening chasm vetween the have and the have nots. Protest your one issue, then take a nice edible and tune out.
Posted by: dask | Nov 20 2022 15:05 utc | 3
Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc
Thank you very much for providing this link. The speech was prescient.
Posted by: spudski | Nov 20 2022 15:05 utc | 4
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
All I can say is that many commenters here were more aware of the future, than the Russian leadership was.
If Russia wanted to prevent World War 3, they should have done it in 2013.
Good Sir, many commentators locked up for decades in lunatic asylums and wrong about everything else “were more aware of the future, than the Russian leadership was”.
Now, if they could have prevented WW3 in 2013, why then not 1993 ?
Perhaps 1983 ?
… and before long we’re in the territory of “Pre-emptive warfare” … (AKA “The Self Fulfilling Prophecy”)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 15:10 utc | 5
Down South no. 2
This the UK:
“Government tests energy blackout emergency plans as supply fears grow”
Exclusive: Whitehall officials have ‘war gamed’ Programme Yarrow, a blueprint for coping with outages for up to a week
Pippa Crerar political editor Alex Lawson
Tue 1 Nov 2022 20.45 GMT
The government has “war gamed” emergency plans to cope with energy blackouts lasting up to seven days in the event of a national power outage amid growing fears over security of supply this winter.
The Guardian has seen documents, marked “official sensitive”, which warn that in a “reasonable worst-case scenario” all sectors including transport, food and water supply, communications and energy could be “severely disrupted” for up to a week.
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Nov 20 2022 15:11 utc | 6
Maybe Russians feigned they didnt know whats going in 2013. so they can wipe out a good deal of nazis + their gear when they arrive in their meat grinder a few years later. I find it hard to believe they dont plan 10 20 30 40 50 years ahead, smart people do and write it all down and they look like a pretty smart country to me so they must have had a plan.
Posted by: Jzo | Nov 20 2022 15:27 utc | 7
” … and before long we’re in the territory of “Pre-emptive warfare” … (AKA “The Self Fulfilling Prophecy”)
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 15:10 utc | 7 ”
However, preemptive war is perfectly fine for Israel and the US right ? Its odd that Russia never defends itself by pointing out that Israel has done the same, as it would effectively neutralize the accusations against Russia.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 20 2022 15:28 utc | 8
Very much enjoyed reading Dani’s comments yesterday. Provided some insight into the propaganda that must be pushed daily in the Ukraine. Left wondering how many there buy into it.
In the face of all this turmoil and uncertainty life goes on however. I’ll be caring for my seven week old baby today, wishing a peaceful and relaxing Sunday to everyone else at the bar, even those I disagree with or who happen to be on the NSA’s payroll.
Na Zdorovie!
Posted by: RMY_grendel | Nov 20 2022 15:30 utc | 9
” I find it hard to believe they dont plan 10 20 30 40 50 years ahead, smart people do and write it all down and they look like a pretty smart country to me so they must have had a plan.
Posted by: Jzo | Nov 20 2022 15:27 utc | 10 ”
If they truly had a plan the war would have been finished in a week. Instead Russia has been improvising as they go.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 20 2022 15:30 utc | 10
Over at MoD, I count 10 pickup trucks destroyed in futile Ukr. offensives.
Could they run out of them? They cost money and aren’t an unlimited resource such as male Ukrainians who can be freely discarded on the battlefield.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 20 2022 15:33 utc | 11
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 20 2022 15:28 utc | 11
However, preemptive war is perfectly fine for Israel and the US right ?
This is not a matter of what is fine or not but what is within means.
“Preemptive Warfare” is just another term for “Might Makes Right”.
It only works against defenseless and weak countries – and barely.
Against opponents with potential for moderate retaliation, it’s almost useless.
NATO has always been an opponent with potential for “moderate retaliation”.
Russia always had to tread carefully, prepare it’s plans and choose it’s time to strike.
Putin has prepared Russia to do this, and more and chosen his time to strike.
I’m pretty sure the Russians always knew what was or wasn’t within their means.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 15:42 utc | 12
Associated Press, that bellwether of The Imperial Whirlitzer whose newsfeed I peek at daily to see which way they are blowing the wind, suggested, at 6:30 EST this AM that Change, if not Hope, is coming, children:
Kyiv’s mayor: Extraordinary, in extraordinarily tough times
By JOHN LEICESTER
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The body armor propped against a radiator, ready for use, the spent shell casing adding to clutter on his desk, the boxing memorabilia and the sign asking visitors to leave firearms at his door: All shout that this is the office of an extraordinary mayor, in extraordinarily difficult times.
Other, more personal touches fill out the picture: The book on a sideboard about British wartime leader Winston Churchill is signed “With best wishes” by the author, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
And then there’s the plastic toy figure of a muscular boxer, with clenched fist raised — a reminder of how physically imposing, fearsome even, Vitali Klitschko was in his world title-winning, opponent-pummeling heavyweight boxing prime.
That much hasn’t changed. His handshake is crushingly firm, his gaze steely. But the pressures on the shoulders and on the time of the 51-year-old mayor of Ukraine’s capital city are heavier now than they ever were when his fortunes were measured in three-minute rounds that ended with clangs of a bell.
Spent shell casings adding to the clutter on his desk??? Jesus Christ on a crutch. Where be the sunflowers? Meet da new boss/same as da old boss?
Link to prove I didn’t just make this shit up with more details and a lovely introductory profile pose of him at a flag-flanked desk fit for any President, staring at a monitor to prove he’s ‘puter-literate, with mandatory close-cropped militant hair and army green attire – but long-sleeves now ‘cause buuurrrr, it’s getting cold over there…:
https://tinyurl.com/589ways2
Posted by: defaultcitizen | Nov 20 2022 15:43 utc | 13
The web says that temperatures in Ukraine today, November 20, are 30-31 degrees. Just at freezing. It is not yet cold the way winter gets cold, and so far the ground is not freezing. My prediction is this: watch the temperatures and when they drop to 10 degrees F or below, start tracking, day by day, and within one week you will see chaos, mass migration, and, eventually, a Russian movement over the plains…..
December 7th…..
Posted by: Boomheist | Nov 20 2022 15:45 utc | 14
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
Russia’s response was incremental, and never enough to stop the insatiable West/US. Support of the separatists in the Donbass, which led to the Minsk accords. Annexation of Crimea, which thwarted the West’s agenda to turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake, taking over Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol. After the Minsk accords, the crisis was more or less in limbo for years, while Ukraine built a massively fortified line in the Donbass then massed tens of thousands of troops behind the line in 2021. At that point Russia had to act. In hindsight, they should have acted much sooner.
Posted by: Mike R | Nov 20 2022 15:46 utc | 15
Boomheist
Why would russian troops in ukraine be in any alleged advantage during winter vs ukrainian troops in Ukraine in winter? It makes no sense claiming that.
If Russian troops have progressed badly without winter they will of course not progress any better during winter season!
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 20 2022 16:10 utc | 16
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 15:10 utc | 7, 16
Absolutely could not have said it better, and I am a firm believer (lots of evidence to support this), that the Russian leadership plan faaar in advance and make their decisions when the time is right.
Posted by: Al | Nov 20 2022 16:16 utc | 17
@ Mike R | Nov 20 2022 15:46 utc | 15
While signing the Document on helping Donbass republics/SMO on 23rd February 2022, Putin did whisper on live broadcast TV –
“I should have done that before.”
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 20 2022 16:18 utc | 18
@Boomheist
I’ve always lived in Canada (Quebec) so I know a little about winter, having experienced its different variations.
One time I was in Northern Quebec (Abitibi) in the middle of winter, and it didn’t seem all that cold, and I actually opened my coat. Beautiful day. There was no wind, and apparently the actual temperature was -30C but it didn’t feel like it. Also, it was a dry cold.
Conversely, I’ve mostly lived in Montreal and suburbs, and what made the cold really biting was when it was around the freezing point, with lots of wet slush everywhere, and worse, when the wind was blowing. That felt 100 times worse than non-windy, non-slushy temperatures at like -10 or -15. Not to mention, if your boots weren’t waterproof, you’d freeze your feet off.
So this highlights the difference in perceived cold, depending on if you’re indoors or outdoors.
Posted by: Featherless | Nov 20 2022 16:19 utc | 19
@ Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
petri, i respect your viewpoint and thoughts on these matters… what do you think russia could have done in 2013 to change the course of where we are today? i am sure they could have taken a different tack, but what would it have been which resulted in a different situation that russia finds itself in today? as i said to steven johnson on the previous thread, i don’t believe russia was in a position to alter the direction and long term game plan of the usa and friends with regard to using ukraine as a tool to take down russia.. and in fact, it is ongoing and nothing has changed in the wests stance towards russia or ukraine at this point.. russia on the other hand has had a good amount of time to prepare and organize for what they knew was coming… and i would argue that many inside knew what was coming too… so, i just don’t see it as an easy conclusion to make – “many commenters here were more aware of the future, than the Russian leadership was. If Russia wanted to prevent World War 3, they should have done it in 2013.” what could have they done in 2013?? thanks..
Posted by: james | Nov 20 2022 16:22 utc | 20
@ Mike R | Nov 20 2022 15:46 utc | 15
thanks for saying all that… right on…
Posted by: james | Nov 20 2022 16:24 utc | 21
@ Zanon: My understanding is that much of not most of Ukraine terrain are steppes and open plains. Russia has the air superiority and Ukraine does not. During the fall rainy season the fields get sodden and wet and become muddy, soft, deep. These are unsuited to use by vehicles and tanks, which bog down. Thus during this season to advance they need to use roads. But, assuming the fields freeze, then all flat terrain can be used by vehicles. Assuming Russia has complete air superiority if Ukrainian vehicles and tanks start rushing over the plains they will be obliterated by the Russians. But the Russians, advancing with vehicles and tanks, by controlling the air, will not be obliterated, unless NATO starts firing missiles from Poland, in which case the war expands in an instant.
I still think, despite what one commenter said the other day about all the Dnieper bridges being mined by Ukrainians, that the Russians will first move north on the eastern side of the river once the land freezes then sweep west toward Odessa, north of all the estuaries and rivers entering the Black Sea – that is, if Russia chooses to continue moving rather than there being a cease fire. It all depends on the chaos the cold will bring…..
Posted by: Boomheist | Nov 20 2022 16:29 utc | 22
Eighthman @ 11
First thing to notice is UAF are visibly using lots of civilian model pickup trucks. Which means they are short on transport period. I spend too much time watching vids on Slavyangrad and similar, the pickup truck phenomenon is very real. And yes, they could run out, just as they have run out of young men. Video constantly shows old men on the front lines.
Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 20 2022 16:39 utc | 23
The Russians won’t be doing any offensives, they will be hunkering down and trying to defend themselves, while Wagner et al will fight for a few villages near Donetsk.
NATO are overjoyed to be testing their tactics and weaponry, and the next step will be waves of cheap drones from Ukrainian side.
By all accounts mobilisation, training, and provision of equipment is catastrophically incompetent at all levels.
If not for crowdfunding – where civilian groups bought thousands of drones for frontline troops over the months – the RF would be in a much worse position.
People here underestimate what a catastrophe the collapse of the Soviet Union was, and how low status the Army had in Putinist Russia.
The strategic nuclear forces may be top quality but that is the extent of it.
NATO know this, thus the cockiness and arrogance of the West.
A massive offensive using the new mobilised troops would be an unmitigated disaster with huge casualties.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 20 2022 16:44 utc | 24
If Russia wanted to prevent World War 3, they should have done it in 2013.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
Done what exactly?
How were the Russians supposed to do anything when Yanukovich fled the country to save himself whilst leaving the East at the mercy of the Nazis. There were reports that Putin was furious with him for fleeing.
Instead of fleeing to save himself, had he stood his ground and requested Russian assistance to defeat the colour revolution like Lukashenko did Ukraine would not be in this mess today.
‘Bandit coup
“I intend to continue to struggle for the future of Ukraine, against terror and fear,” Mr Yanukovych told the news conference in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
“What’s going on now is lawlessness, lack of authority, and terror. Decisions in parliament were taken under duress.”
He apologised to the Ukrainian people for not having “enough strength to keep stability” and described his usurpers as “young, neo-fascists”.
He insisted he did not “flee anywhere”, explaining that his car was shot at as he left Kiev and he was forced to move around Ukraine amid fears for the safety of himself and his family.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26386946
Posted by: Down South | Nov 20 2022 16:58 utc | 25
There were too many post regarding the Polish missiles and it got tiring but this from Lira’s latest YouTube makes it worthwhile to bring up again.
Crediting another YouTuber named Spy Guy Lira speculates, and he clearly states he’s just throwing stuff out there, that there was a large fertilizer warehouse in the town of 400 people. If a missile had hit this it likely would have created an explosion similarly dramatic to what was seen in Beirut in 2020, which was semi-nuclear in visuals and drew the attention of the world for weeks. At night with everyone in bed it might was killed the entire town.
Lira goes on that the little Polish town is on exact longitude and latitude coordinates to be presented as a Russian trajectory math screw up, it explains why two missiles, and the size of the explosion would have credibility obliterated any missile parts for evidence that it wasn’t Russian.
Clever insight worth considering, watch for yourselves and decide:
About That Missle That Fell In Poland
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 17:02 utc | 26
@Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
@james | Nov 20 2022 16:22 utc | 20
Very good conversation starters!
I recall the coup in 2014 fairly vividly, due to it’s announcement by Victoria Nuland a month earlier on BBC radio.
From what I remember the coup was timed to occur during the Russian hosted Winter Olympics, so the the Russian leadership was caught flat-footed. Once the Russians responded by annexing Crimea, the West was very quick to flood the planet with oil, driving down prices, in an attempt to bankrupt the Russian economy. People in Russia starved, as the economy was still very dependent upon Western goods and trade.
I do not think the Russian leadership was capable of coming to a consensus quickly enough to respond. I do remember how the agriculture sector was quickly re-organized and capitalized to make the country more autarkic, but that took a bit of time. Additionally, the banking sector was re-organized to prepare for the upcoming battle of 2022.
While everyone since then said that the much of the Ukrainian Army was ripe for revolt, it seems to me that Russia was more concerned about its own survival, and was incapable of responding. This event, however, did start the preparation of the next stage of the conflict, as Russia leadership started a concerted diplomatic effort to secure allied relationships with several countries that today stand behind it, including China, India, Saudi Arabia and Iran. At the time none of these diplomatic moves made headlines, which of course was the intent.
What struck me most markedly at the time was how stupid the thought process was behind the initial coup. I recall remarking to a friend that this event would drive Russia and China together and create what Halford Makinder had warned of in 1904.
It’s now obvious that the current Western leaders who are still operating by the mindset exemplified by the famous quote about the “end of history” proclaimed by Francis Fukuyama and repeated by Karl Rove after the Soviet dissolution, hadn’t read Premier Chou Enlai’s astonished comment from 1976, “Americans have no sense of history”.
Posted by: Michael.j | Nov 20 2022 17:23 utc | 27
Looks like the US has big plans for Russia and possibly China, and the Ukrainian conflict is just the warm-up act.
“News that the West is using Ukraine to test weapons systems for future wars aligns with recent comments by the commander of the U.S. nuclear arsenal that the proxy war is a test run for a much bigger conflict that’s on its way.
“This Ukraine crisis that we’re in right now, this is just the warmup,” U.S. STRATCOM head Charles Richard told a naval conference earlier this month. “The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested [in] a long time.”
So in addition to being used to advance longstanding U.S. geo-strategic objectives, apparently this war is also being used to sharpen the imperial war machine’s claws for a looming hot war with China and/or Russia. The U.S. would certainly have an advantage in military test runs over the years in such a conflict.”
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/11/18/caitlin-johnstone-ukraine-as-weapons-testing-site/
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 20 2022 17:24 utc | 28
@ moaobserver | Nov 20 2022 16:44 utc | 24
Yes and no.
By using stand-off weaponry, RF can seriously degrade Ukrainian military, constantly decimating NATO arms supplies and personnel.
So far everything indicates that is a rather successful approach.
It is a lot easier if those are 20-40 km from the front lines.
It is slow and unattractive, but a very reasonable strategy.
Then it is up and with RF generals to decide when it could be a good time to mop up the rest, thus avoiding serious military casualties.
As I understand, the structures that have been mobilised by RF are not focused on shock troops or a bayoneted cannon fodder, as it is seen by some.
70% are technical and educated artillery/reactive rocketry operators, engineering, and heavy motorized units etc.
That indicates the construction of certain required conditions to enable the offensive posture.
Together with LPR and DPR, Wagner Group, 25k volunteers, added some Chechen units, for a good measure, the entire RF military force might well be around 500.000 if not more. That is not to underestimate.
Why RF would call up, retrain and deploy so many troops if they do not intend to push though?
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 20 2022 17:24 utc | 29
james @ 20
I agree. Not much Russia could do to influence US policy, but the EU maybe/might have been able to influence events had they decided to bite the hand that feeds it. We know what the US thought of EU initiatives in Ukraine in 2014 (“fuck the EU”).
I wish that something had come of Yanukovych’s multiple requests for trilateral talks between the EU/Russia/Ukraine about the trade deals. If sources are to be believed, he asked multiple times between October and the end of November 2013. The National Interest article cites EU leaders as saying ‘no’ to such talks. This sort of agreement could have let Ukraine become a bridge between the EU and Russia building it up and facilitating mutual trust and growth between the EU and Russia. We all know who is opposed to that sort of development.
Moscow Times Article – Joint EU-Ukraine-Russia Council
National Interest – Russia Along Did Not Destabilize Ukraine
Posted by: Objective Observer | Nov 20 2022 17:34 utc | 30
The world awaits a generation of Ukrainians named Javelin and Javelina coming of age in 2038. They will enter majority where the word “Russia” holds the same symbolic meaning as “Albion” and “Columbia,” a testament to the eternal spirit of the Ukrainian Rus. In its place will be the freshly liberated European Union member states of Muscovy, Mari El, Mordovia, Chuvashskaya , Bashkortstan, Tatarstan, the Volga Republic, Circassia, Kalmykiya, Chechnya, Ingushya and Dagestan, meeting in the EU parliament in Zelensky Square at Lvov.
In response to Petri Krohn@1,
Tsarev’s close friend, the Russian journalist, isn’t a reflection of the Russian leadership. Why he thought, at that time, before the coup took place, that the Russian TV-viewership wouldn’t be interested in Ukrainian internal politics is on him. Once counter-protests started, Tsarev featured prominently in Russian broadcasts until the situation escalated beyond politics in their traditional sense.
Even then, it’s just television — with the loose informational control the Russians have over even federal channels, not to mention prominent media figures who by and large shape the Russian media narrative, it’s a stereotypical mistake to conflate the media landscape with some official government position.
The Russian government never stopped working with Ukraine to build up good relations, albeit in adherence with the principles of non-interference, which ultimately proved far less effective than more extensive Western efforts at undermining those relations. I don’t think the poor result invalidates the practice of principled diplomacy, considering the results that have been achieved elsewhere, and I’ve never heard a practical suggestion, in all the years of debating this topic, of what Russia needed to do in order to save an unstable state from itself.
Posted by: Skiffer | Nov 20 2022 17:46 utc | 32
This the UK:”Government tests energy blackout emergency plans as supply fears grow”Exclusive: Whitehall officials have ‘war gamed’ Programme Yarrow, a blueprint for coping with outages for up to a week
Pippa Crerar political editor Alex Lawson
Crerar? Wonder if her grandfather was that bigtime general in ww2? Alex Lawson? Any relation to Nigel?
Posted by: Wokechoke | Nov 20 2022 17:48 utc | 33
All I can say is that many commenters here were more aware of the future, than the Russian leadership was. If Russia wanted to prevent World War 3, they should have done it in 2013.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
___________________________________________________________________
Such “wisdom” as Petri’s, as displayed here with benefit of 20/20 hindsight, completely fails to take into account the true state of Russia in 2013, since they have absolutely NO knowledge or insight into the Russian state of affairs at that time! Very weak sauce there, Petri!
Posted by: Garry Owen | Nov 20 2022 17:51 utc | 34
Boomheist
Why would russian troops in ukraine be in any alleged advantage during winter vs ukrainian troops in Ukraine in winter? It makes no sense claiming that.
If Russian troops have progressed badly without winter they will of course not progress any better during winter season!
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 20 2022 16:10 utc | 16
If you look at the weather maps Crimea, Rostov, Mariupol remain Balmy. Siberia is in deep freeze. Ukraine is at consistently subzero temperatures. Ukraine’s civil infrastructure like electric power is being destroyed. The Ukies will run away to sunnier climes if they can under this pressure.
Posted by: Wokechoke | Nov 20 2022 17:57 utc | 36
Everyone needs to know that the mobilization effort is only enough to secure the front line – Izyum was lost because that front had been stripped bare to defend Kherson. Russia announce mobilization after that only when it became apparent that mercenaries, felons and Chechnyas with artillery support had been insufficient. Its a bare minimum of force not a Winter Offensive. The ukraine is also being swelled with mercenaries and ex nato soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms, so its much more likely they will try an operation see if they can catch the Russians in the sauna. Judging by the smug certainty of its loyal online fans it seems probable such a strike will succeed.
Also its clear now that artillery has been supplied sufficiently to keep the fire on the Russian lines now their air defence needs are being targetted. Russian already steer clear of air strikes, its far too likely to get destroyed. The missle parades over Ukraine will also become less effective.
My advice to the Russian General Staff – pull your parade troops out of their barracks and make a quick move into Cherniv or Sumy likely to be lightly defended. And hold the city with a link to the Russian border and sacrifice that city when the Ukrainians latch onto it – they wont be able to help themselves – After Kherson they’ll be too eager to push Russia back. Oblige them, one block at a time. Afterwards they can just put that city on the reconstruction bill, whatever.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Nov 20 2022 18:00 utc | 37
Looks like the US has big plans for Russia and possibly China, and the Ukrainian conflict is just the warm-up act.
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 20 2022 17:24 utc | 28
________________________________________________________________________
So, where is the US hiding all of their REAL wunderwaffe??? Broom Lake ??? AREA 51 ???
Sure haven’t shown much in Ukie Land! HIMARs ain’t new and ain’t so wunnerful and nary a sign of the hangar queens, the F-22 or the F-35!!!!
Maybe Bob Lazar has finally reverse-engineered all those UFO powerplants????
Posted by: Garry Owen | Nov 20 2022 18:02 utc | 38
RMY_grendel @9
CONGRATZ!!!! on the new little one. <3
Posted by: polarbear4 | Nov 20 2022 18:05 utc | 39
Posted by: Garry Owen | Nov 20 2022 18:02 utc | 38
B-2 bomber is also almost directly a copy of Horten Ho-229 bomber from 1945 which US managed to obtain. Have the USA really invented anything truly advanced on their own?
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 20 2022 18:06 utc | 40
I could understand eggs, but why would the UK run out of electricity??? Sounds like some sort of psyops against their own people, keep them scared, confused, and hence docile, or just a scam by their power companies in league with their Tory lackeys to get the few coins left in people’s pockets before the whole island sinks below the sea like Sodom and Gomorrah meets Atlantis.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 18:16 utc | 41
Posted by: Dani | Nov 20 2022 17:36 utc | 31
Chechnya, Ingushya and Dagestan, meeting in the EU parliament in Zelensky Square at Lvov.
Oh my, you are talented!
I swear I nearly split my sides at the vision of Khadyrov and his sons saluting the EU parliament while standing beside Zelensky and the three kosher piggies that rule Ukraine.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 18:18 utc | 42
Russia was dissolved from within and spent decades trying to pull itself put of the abyss…as soon as NATO started creeping east it would be apperent a future conflict was in the works…the destruction of the Russian ally Yugoslavia was confirmation of Nato’s intention. I believe a Russian armoured column set up position in Sarajevo to counter Western machinations and of course after the Maiden incident the control over the Black Sea fleet was initiated. I suggest the millions of artillery shells and missiles that Russia ran out of months ago was preparations initiated in 2014…..in short Russia was not ready then for this conflict. Frozen ground will give mobility advantage to whoever is moving..this generally means offensive. Since the battalion sized combat teams Ukraine was attacking with have now whittled away to company sized formations it will be safe to say with certainty that offensive operations will now transfer over to Russian forces and depleted Ukraine will be forced into the defence. I am arctic warfare trained…winter fighting is specialized and most western armies have alpine or mountain units. Procedure and time estimates are very different to normal tempo and most of the volunteers I’m guessing will have no experience or winter kit. This may not be a huge factor but when added to frozen fuel….hordes of white clad fresh rested Russians pouring over normally inaccessible ground supported by 60 to 80 thousand artillery rounds per day….the cold feet and frozen lubricant in their AK-74 might just ad to the misery
Posted by: Joe | Nov 20 2022 18:19 utc | 43
Woulda, shoulda coulda.
Russia- for all the hatred drawn to this country today, many will not believe that they are generally a decent, hard-working, religiously moral people. To make the case that they are an honest and straight forward country even with the serious shid they endured over the decades/centuries, would be hard to understand. My own son is parroting the lies the western msm is spewing about Putin and his ambition to take back the soviet realm is quite frustrating and sad to me. When I read Petri’s post at the very top of this page, I watched the video of Oleg and it just seemed to me that the journalist mentioned may have spoken incorrectly, the mood of the leadership. If this journo wasn’t then I suspect Russian leadership at the time, did not realize just how rotten, sneaky and aggressive the US really was. They underestimated the ability of the US/UK/Zio cabal to do something so despicable and sinister in open society.
Posted by: Safe | Nov 20 2022 18:20 utc | 44
Daily life on the front lines during winter will be hell for both sides. The difference will be which side can be better supplied and more importantly which side can perform rotations. If life off the lines is hardly better than at them, the situation becomes untenable. Even just off the front lines matter. The side that can have working field kitchens to make hot meals has an advantage.
I don’t know how many here live in cold places or have worked outside in cold climates. The smallest things make the biggest difference.
Posted by: Lex | Nov 20 2022 18:20 utc | 45
….Why would russian troops in ukraine be in any alleged advantage during winter vs ukrainian troops in Ukraine in winter……
Because Kiev‘s military is fully NATO integrated.
Posted by: Exile | Nov 20 2022 18:26 utc | 46
moaobserver@24
Normally this guy is on point but his comments at 24 are literally horsebleep. He is barking up the wrong tree completely, actually he is in a different forest. NATO and US quality and quantity is NOWHERE near what Russia is putting out. The US/UK/Zio cabal is a dead man walking…
Posted by: Safe | Nov 20 2022 18:28 utc | 47
All you need to do is watch a Russian military video of troops in Siberia or at the Arctic Circle. It’ll be boys with piecemeal, cobbled together equipment in Ukie versus men with ALL the latest cold weather gear and equipment and training.
Posted by: Safe | Nov 20 2022 18:32 utc | 48
Anyone have a link for the execution of russian prisoners of war?
Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 20 2022 18:35 utc | 49
Dani @31
I’ll take that bet. You? and what wager would you consider? 10 troy ounces of 99.94 gold coins?
Stakes in escrow, no backing out.
Put your money where your mouth is.
Posted by: AleaJactaEst | Nov 20 2022 18:38 utc | 51
Petri Krohn (1):
You do not understand what happened. Russia knew exactly what was going to happen, as it had advertised Nuland’s secret statements about the coup because it had already bugged the American embassy in Kiev. It took back Crimea in lighting speed, without firing a shot, because that was essential militarily–the entire Black Sea fleet, the heart of the Russian navy, was based in Sevastopol. Immediately after the coup, there was a meeting of all pro-Russian provinces of Ukraine in Kharkiv; only the leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts voted to secede from the rest of Ukraine. Russia, on the “responsibility to protect” doctrine moved in with paramilitary forces and supplies and even air defense expertise to preserve at least part of the Donbass. There was never a mandate nor intention of sending troops en masse into Ukraine in 2014–this could have triggered a larger conflict for which Russia was then unprepared economically. The key decision back then was whether to take over Mariupol, the 2nd-largewst city in Donetsk, but the Donetsk People’s Republic Army was outgunned in that city and active-duty Russian forces would have been required. You greatly underestimate the leadership of the Russian Federation!
Posted by: FHTEX | Nov 20 2022 18:45 utc | 52
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 17:02 utc | 26
I watched the G Lira video and the scenario he posited there just blew my mind. The sheer evil of it is unimaginable to most of us but totally in character with these warlocks. It would be more of a scale of evil if the Polish themselves were in on it, which is totally plausible. The Zealotry of the Polish leadership is unequalled in my opinion
Posted by: DaVinci | Nov 20 2022 18:50 utc | 53
@LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 17:02 utc | 26
an explosion similarly dramatic to what was seen in Beirut in 2020, which was semi-nuclear in visuals
Re: Beirut, If it walks like a duck… They want to normalize mini-nukes, saying it is something else.
Crediting another YouTuber named Spy Guy Lira speculates, and he clearly states he’s just throwing stuff out there, that there was a large fertilizer warehouse in the town of 400 people. If a missile had hit this it likely would have created an explosion similarly dramatic to what was seen in Beirut in 2020, which was semi-nuclear in visuals and drew the attention of the world for weeks. At night with everyone in bed it might was killed the entire town.
If you could set off a “an explosion similarly dramatic to what was seen in Beirut in 2020” that easily with fertilizer it would happen a lot in accidents, not to mention elsewhere in Ukraine in this war. But it does not happen like that. I think the S-300 event was a false flag by Ukraine, but I don’t think it could happen as speculated, because there is likely no fertilizer facility there, but instead “a small corn grain warehouse”. If you go to the video there is one interesting comment by “Wierzbik”:
I’m polish so i can give a proper summary of that theory Gonzalo put out in this video. First, it wasn’t a farmer who posted photos of this S-300 fragments, but a firefighter who first came to that area in order to save people. Literally moments later a whole swarm of military vehicles came to that area and shoved everyone out, collected all the evidence and pieces of the rocket and drove away, never to be seen again. Even today, polish government STILL gave no evidence, police keeps journalist out of the area and “lying Pinocchio” polish prime minister and “Jewlensky” still claim that it was russian doing, so if not for these photos, whole world would have be none the wiser. Second thing, it wasn’t a “fertilizer” facility, but a small corn grain warehouse and distribution centre, that’s a place where farmers come in order to sell their product,. Bombing this place wouldn’t create an explosion like in Lebanon, but corn get’s hot during storage, like rly hot, corn dust is quite dangerous, so those old S-300 ukrainian rockets could go crazy after missing their target and keep flying until they find a new one with their heat-seeking sensors.
Lots of unsubstantiated claims here, but the idea of “an explosion similarly dramatic to what was seen in Beirut in 2020” is not credible in my opinion.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 18:52 utc | 54
“If they truly had a plan the war would have been finished in a week. Instead Russia has been improvising as they go.
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 20 2022 15:30 utc | 10”
“The tactical result of an engagement forms the base for new strategic decisions because victory or defeat in a battle changes the situation to such a degree that no human acumen is able to see beyond the first battle. In this sense one should understand Napoleon’s saying: “I have never had a plan of operations.”
Therefore no plan of operations extends with any certainty beyond the first contact with the main hostile force.”
— Helmuth Carl Bernard Graf von Moltke
Posted by: JHW | Nov 20 2022 18:52 utc | 55
@Objective Observer | Nov 20 2022 17:34 utc | 30
I wish that something had come of Yanukovych’s multiple requests for trilateral talks between the EU/Russia/Ukraine about the trade deals.
Sure, but after the neocons with Nuland etc. had prepared for the coup years in advance they would certainly not allow any trilateral talks, and they didn’t. They wanted a war to ultimately break Russia, and their path was via Ukraine.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 18:56 utc | 56
@LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 18:16 utc | 41
I could understand eggs, but why would the UK run out of electricity???
Where do you think electricity comes from, the wall sockets?
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 19:01 utc | 57
@Lex | Nov 20 2022 18:20 utc | 45
I don’t know how many here live in cold places or have worked outside in cold climates. The smallest things make the biggest difference.
I have participated in NATO exercises as infantry in -37C. It is “interesting”, but at least dry. It is even worse around zero with wet snow.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 19:07 utc | 58
Posted by: JHW | Nov 20 2022 18:52 utc | 55
You cast pearls before swine, my friend.
Pearls before swine …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 20 2022 19:07 utc | 59
@54 Norwegian – I remember someone mentioning when the grain explosion occurred in Lebanon, that a similar thing could happen in Odessa. There is a very large grain terminal there.
Odessa Grain Terminal
The link is from a website called Brooklyn.Kiev. I think it’s some import export thing.
Odessa seems like a much better target for trying to pin something on the Russians.
Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 20 2022 19:10 utc | 60
The side that can have working field kitchens to make hot meals has an advantage.
Posted by: Lex | Nov 20 2022 18:20 utc | 45
—
One of my best culinary memories. Fresh lentil soup with sausages from the field kitchen, MMM….
Just saying. 🙂
Posted by: Nobody | Nov 20 2022 19:13 utc | 61
Garry Owen (38):
There is an old saying with modern variants: “It is better to keep silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubts.” As long as the F-22 and especially the F-35 aren’t facing combat against a technologically advanced enemy, one can merely doubt that they are the best fighters in the world and they can still be marketed; once the face hypersonic air-launched missiles and S400 SAMs and start falling out of the sky, they won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit in overseas sales. Don’t expect to see them flying across the Ukrainian border anytime soon!
Posted by: FHTEX | Nov 20 2022 19:14 utc | 62
@ Petri Krohn | Nov 20 2022 14:43 utc | 1
Comparative power capabilities & capacities in 2013 as opposed to now ? One thinks not. Firmly believe RF & China committed the current course of action post 2008, ‘We’ve got your Back!'(US/NATO/Israel) Georgia attack on RF.
@ Eighthman | Nov 20 2022 15:33 utc | 11
I say again, we must consider the RF Main Battle Tanks vs UAF ‘Pickup Truck’ ‘Gap’ ! (See: Dr Strangelove, mineshaft Gap. Cold War fake ‘Missile Gap)
@ oldhippie | Nov 20 2022 16:39 utc | 23
Very much so, & increasing simply civvy passenger vehicles as opposed to EU SUVs/4WD & spray-painted Pickups, also vans and removalist military trucks in lieu of IFVs/APCs.
And egregiously conscripted/deceived boys as young as 12 in the front line trenches. 🙁
@lex talionis | Nov 20 2022 19:10 utc | 60
The fact that someone claims something does not make it so. And besides, the claim was not grain explosion but Beirut explosion reportedly caused by fertilizer seized from Russian businessman. You get the idea, they even threw in a Russian into the mix for good measure. I would say it was neither.
The fertilizer claim is common, it was also used as the explanation for the 22. July 2011 demolishing of the Government highrise in Oslo. And no, there wasn’t a fertilizer storage under the government house. They claimed it was enough to put some of it in a van and light it up. I do not believe that was what happened.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 19:18 utc | 64
@ Outraged | Nov 20 2022 19:14 utc | 63
Correction: Should read ‘also vans & removalist vans/tip trucks/commercial trucks, etc, in lieu of IFVs/APCs & military trucks/cargo vehs.’
Norwegian @ 57
Where do you think electricity comes from, the wall sockets?
They have 8 NPPs. Does the rest come from Polish coal, Russian gas and oil, power lines under the sea from EU? I have absolutely no idea, but unlike Germany I don’t sea how an island in the Atlantic can be so desperately tied to Russian energy that it will have to resort to rolling blackouts. I would love to know the details.
As for Lira, of course if there is no large fertilizer warehouse there then the whole theory flies straight out the window on a strong gust. Lira says, Spy Guy says, there is a fertilizer warehouse there – “on the internet no one knows you’re a dog”.
https://464697-1455876-raikfcquaxqncofqfm.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/na-internetu-niko-ne-zna-da-ste-pas.png
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 19:21 utc | 66
About the Dutch MH 17 court case:
I cannot believe the verdict (3 suspects get life in prison) can hold up in appeal. Life in prison (which is a life sentence for real in Holland) can only be the sentence for murder one.
Apart from all the technical stuff (quite a lot is questionable and based on hearsay or worse, Bellingcat), murder with intent has not been proven. Most likely, (assuming all the tech stuff and the narrative would hold up), the BUK system was transported in order to shoot down military transport planes, of which Ukraine still had some.
This can never make the case for intent to shoot down a passenger plane.
Apart from that: both OSCE and Kiev have signed the minsk-2 treaty, in which point 5 states:
“Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.”
Posted by: Rootman | Nov 20 2022 19:22 utc | 67
@ Norwegian 54
It is a bit of a stretch to be sure. The 2020 Beirut bombing did have some of the features of an op. There was a concrete and steel barrier (a building complex if I recall correctly) between it and the city that absorbed the brunt of the blast. Coincidence or not, it is one of the most telling features of the video that captured the explosion. The nitrate-storage narrative likewise made little practical sense. And of course there has been no accountability since, the reddest of red flags when examining these things.
Still, there isn’t really enough accurate information regarding the Polish incident to make any judgments. We’re reliant on the Polish government and the media for the facts. Why would you trust either of them? Its an obvious attempt to create a narrative. All we really know for sure is something happened – actual or simulated – in an isolated Polish border town a few hours after a massive Russian missile strike while key elements of the U.S. government were engaged elsewhere (Bali, Ramstein and Kiev). It has all the elements of an attempted false flag, and the “errant Ukrainian missile” narrative was trotted out to cover the asses of the operators once it became obvious they had no political support for the op. The whole thing probably has something to do with Polish politics.
Posted by: Thrasyboulos | Nov 20 2022 19:27 utc | 68
thanks @ Arch Bungle and others for pointing out flaws in post #1’s argument.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 20 2022 19:28 utc | 69
@Thrasyboulos | Nov 20 2022 19:27 utc | 68
I agree with your post entirely.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 19:36 utc | 70
Lex @ 45
The side that can have working field kitchens to make hot meals has an advantage.
Not to mention hot showers and clean, dry clothing, the last is critical. Wet or dirty clothing doesn’t insulate.
What I’m wondering is what happens in current warfare with wood stoves and old barrels and scrap wood used to keep warm. You could do this is past wars but now will drones spot smoke or use infrared to spot heat from a bunker in a trench and know exactly where a squad is congregated or sleeping? The Russians would have the advantage here.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 19:36 utc | 71
@ whirlX | Nov 20 2022 17:24 utc | 29
Good assessment. H-hour for major offensive is ~5-6 weeks, ~5 months or a year away, no reason to be impulsive or hurry.
@ Garry Owen | Nov 20 2022 18:02 utc | 38
F-35 & older against RF integrated/layered/overlapping AD is a one-way fiery ride to Valhalla.
F-22 cannot handle RF AD penetration & suppression in isolation, so checkmate. Has numerous issues, including no capacity for interlink with digitized C4 battlespace, analogue/unique components, chronic parts and qualified specialist/support techs, low sortie rates, in sustained high intensity conflict the sortie rates & survivability would nose dive.
@ Joe | Nov 20 2022 18:19 utc | 43
Indeed.
@LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 19:21 utc | 66
don’t sea how an island in the Atlantic can be so desperately tied to Russian energy that it will have to resort to rolling blackouts. I would love to know the details.
Details: UK Sanctions of russian energy export, UK/US blowing up Nordstream…
Maybe ask the UK Government how they explain it, because it is they who claim it is coming.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 19:44 utc | 73
@moaobserver 24
Russia and its Donbas allies have been outnumbered by more than 3 to 1 from the beginning, yet before the introduction of multiple HIMARS from the West, they kept winning. When Russia’s new troops are ready and added to the battle, Russia’s armed forces will still number less than the Ukraine forces, but not by a lot. I’m guessing it will be Ukraine 700,000 and Russia 650,000.
My guess is that Russia’s tanks and infantry will cross north of Zaporizhia in January when the ground is good and frozen, and they will head due west from where they will cut off resupply lines from Lvov, take other defensive measures, but then head toward Kiev and take it.
I believe you’re judging Russia as inept because their original total force of about 225,000 couldn’t continue dominating the opposing force of over 750,000. I believe it’s more accurate to conclude that Russia was far more effective than Ukraine and will continue to be so, and when the numbers are more equal, will be able to capture Kiev and get an unconditional surrender.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 20 2022 19:44 utc | 74
@ JHW | Nov 20 2022 18:52 utc | 55
Very much so. Great post.
Informally … No plan survives contact with the enemy. And your opponent has his own plans, and gets to pre-empt and react, including to all the plans and alternate plans you devised, including action not anticipated. War is not a single player game against a horribly week AI.
Murphy’s Law re Combat:
The only thing more deadly than enemy fire, is friendly fire.
LightYearsFromHome @ 66
They have 8 NPPs. Does the rest come from Polish coal, Russian gas and oil, power lines under the sea from EU? I have absolutely no idea, but unlike Germany I don’t sea how an island in the Atlantic can be so desperately tied to Russian energy that it will have to resort to rolling blackouts. I would love to know the details.
See for yourself:
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
The problem will come if there is a period of high pressure over the North Sea during the winter, these can last for a week or more. This will bring a period of cold and windless day. At times likes these the available wind power is at a minimum and demand a maximum.
Posted by: Hereward | Nov 20 2022 19:53 utc | 76
@ Garry Owen
Apart from the obvious, if you don’t mind my askin’, is there a particular reason for your chosen nic, has been tickling my curiosity for some time ?
@ Michael.j | Nov 20 2022 17:23 utc | 27
thanks for your insightful commentary..
@ Objective Observer | Nov 20 2022 17:34 utc | 30
thanks.. i think @ Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 18:56 utc | 56 to your post is very relevant to your question.. i really don’t believe europe was in any position to have much of any say over the matter, just as they find themselves here in 2022… essentially nato runs eu’s foreign policy… maybe this will change as i am sure independent minded european leaders ( is there such a thing?) are thinking of this… but it will take some time and perhaps by then, it may matter not..
————–
i am glad this topic has come up again and been given more feedback today.. it seems the collective viewpoint of moa today is that this couldn’t have been stopped, regardless of what russia could have done to stop it.. instead it appears folks here think russia needed more time to position itself for what we see now.. well, that is how i see it anyway…
Posted by: james | Nov 20 2022 20:08 utc | 78
Posted by: JHW | Nov 20 2022 18:52 utc | 55
Indeed. Times have changed since Napoleon though.
Modern military operations are conducted using the OODA Loop. Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. The side able to complete their OODA Loop faster than the other, wins. Also known as “getting inside your adversary’s decision cycle”.
Since about mid-summer one side is beating the others OODA Loop. Guess which side it is?
Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 20 2022 20:08 utc | 79
comrade simba | Nov 20 2022 18:35 utc | 49
Probably a first for the New York Times. Actually a good video investigation
Videos Suggest Captive Russian Soldiers Were Killed at Close Range
Videos circulating online and reported on by Russian state media have raised questions about whether Ukrainian soldiers committed a war crime.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/20/world/europe/russian-soldiers-shot-ukraine.html (paywalled)
Posted by: upstater | Nov 20 2022 20:09 utc | 80
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 20 2022 19:47 utc | 75
… No plan survives contact with the enemy. And your opponent has his own plans, …
“Everybody has a plan – until they get punched in the face.” – Mike Tyson
Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 20 2022 20:12 utc | 81
Posted by: Muthaucker | Nov 20 2022 20:08 utc | 79
the side begging for money and staging inept false flag attacks in Poland.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 20 2022 20:15 utc | 82
pk@1. thank you, for your comments, you are a favourite i invariably seek out & appreciate your contributions & insights, on your last point, however, i must disagree. russia (patrushev, lavrov, putin, soigu) undoubtedly were profoundly aware what was unfolding (indeed the west had never ceased trying) & about to, however, russia knew she was not yet ready. mother had to put together a formidable defence & that required time. in 2013 she was not prepared to withstand the coming onslaught of sanctions & nato forces. her bedrock of resistance, her allies, were still in the dating stage. slowly, step by step she has friends that have her back whilst the empire is weakening miraculously. miracles often have a degree of foresight alongside or within the miraculous unfolding.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Nov 20 2022 20:17 utc | 83
@ waynorinorway | Nov 20 2022 20:12 utc | 81
LOL.
Or until unexpectedly … the enemy Main Battle Tanks approach from the rear, & drive over the top of the OpForce HQ reinforced dugouts, & proceed to track back & forth, pivoting L & R. 😉
Peace friend
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 20 2022 19:44 utc | 74
It’s not the early 20th century, so “capturing capitals” might not really count as victories. In fact Kiev to me seems pretty irrelevant and backwater in the context of what is important, namely defeating the ukro mass formation currently piled in Zaporizhe, and in that way threatening all the armies in Donbass from behind. That will effectively win the war, even if Zelensky signs no deal, there is a chance it becomes frozen conflict due to lack of ukro ability to send more troops to attack.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 20 2022 20:20 utc | 85
57…66
interactive map EU and Uk energy transmission lines
https://www.entsoe.eu/data/map/
remember UK gets a lot from EDF France who have reactor repair problems
UK bought tanker load Aussie LNG has had to be stored in France. Can we get it back?Our UK storage was mothballed but maybe being resurrected.
Posted by: Jo | Nov 20 2022 20:20 utc | 86
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 20 2022 20:20 utc | 85
USA can keep this going forever with a government-in-exile in Warsaw, Brussels or wherever. It’s just a cover they can use to fight with actual Nato forces and toys in Ukraine. Everything Nato sends in just needs to pretty much drop dead. I don’t know if there is some other way to end it. Masses of these loitering drone munitions seem to be effective way in taking out howitzers, radars, APCs, infantry groups, pick-up trucks, etc. etc.
Will the populations in USA or EU force end to it? Or rather, can they force an end, even if they wanted? Theoretically, but it would requires 1789 all over again, which is just something I don’t see happening. WEF agents will rip the population off to fund the war, and the population just does nothing.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 20 2022 20:29 utc | 87
Anyone have a link for the execution of russian prisoners of war?
Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 20 2022 18:35 utc | 49
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-troops-massacre-surrendering-dis-armed-russians-laying-face-down-on-ground
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 20 2022 20:30 utc | 88
@66 @76 gas provides a large part of UK electricity. The UK produces just over half he gas it used from the UK North Sea and also has a pipe from Norwegia fields. The deficit is made up by liquified gas imports. Competition in world market for this could lead to shortfalls now given that the earlier Tory govt agreed to decommission existing storage facilities.
Posted by: Paul Cockshott | Nov 20 2022 20:32 utc | 89
Next gen strategic weapons systems determined Russia’s timing. Ukraine coup was 2014, first next gen systems announced 2018 but even then, only a few ready for production. Crimea and Syria were simply blocking moves, Ukraine 2022 is pushback. Even with the next gen weapons systems, it seems may in the US and UK wanted to at least use tactical nukes to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
Putin understands what sort of crazies he is dealing with. Another thing I have noticed is Russia does not help those who won’t help themselves. If the Ukraine government would not disperse the rioters, what is there to help? Syria held out for four years, Crimean’s and the ethnic Russian’s of Donbas were willing to fight but not Yanukovych and the Ukraine government.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 20 2022 20:35 utc | 90
… I could understand eggs, but why would the UK run out of electricity??? …
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 20 2022 18:16 utc | 41
In light of EU-wide warnings of potential electricity “rationing” and the insane uptick in UA shelling of ZNPP (presumably a reckless play to regain control of the generating capacity), perhaps the UK is considering an electricity sharing arrangement with the EU that would involve depriving its own citizens?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/uk-becomes-net-electricity-exporter-for-first-time-in-12-years
The UK exported more electricity than it imported in the second quarter of the year for the first time in more than a decade, helping make up a shortfall in France where extended nuclear outages are pushing up prices.
…
As winter approaches, it’s unclear whether such high volumes of exports can be sustained. There’s likely to be rising demand within the UK as it gets dark and cold, meaning some flows out of the country may have to be curtailed when supplies get tight. …
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 20 2022 20:39 utc | 91
Why would anyone name a girl Javelina? Do they know what a javelina is? And in other news I see where the government of Ireland wants to change their own rules for army deployment. Up to now it required a UN mandate – neutral non-NATO country and all that jazz- but now they want to drop that requirement. It seems that they are really pissed that VVP barred them from entering Russia recently as “unfriendly”. I guess he’s frightened now?
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 20 2022 20:45 utc | 92
@ unimperator | Nov 20 2022 20:20 utc | 85
IF RF chooses to go full Zhukov, or maybe when, IF, then ‘one’ possibility would be the following scribbling, straight from the back of a beer coaster …
(1)Gotta go nth, seal the Polish/Bulgarian(?) border, deploy significant flank protection forces re any maneuver capable AFU units. Then drive S & siege Odessa from a N-S axis. Detach a reinforced Brigade to support Transnistria, subsequent referendum re RF. Further reinforcement subsequent. Further deploy multiple minor mobile detachments as progressed for flank protection N, lesser degree to w, blocking detachments re on main routes beyond arty tube indirect fire range re large towns/cities. Await imminent surrender. Under current conditions prior to onset of winter ground ‘freeze’, limited to necessity of using paved & sealed roads/raillines. High risk due to likelihood of pre-positioned ambushes along known approaches & choke points, severing of MSRs, isolation & destruction of detachments from main body.
(2)Realistically: As above, but prepare for onset of winter ground ‘freeze’, advance on multiple broad frontages off & on roads/raillines offering flanking and mutual support across central & Northern Ukraine on an E-W axis of advance. Engage & destroy any capable threatening AFU forces capable of maneuver. Bypass minor or immobile AFU. Detach small reconnaissance units to screen & monitor smaller towns or immobile AFU elements. Isolate avenues of approach/egress of larger towns/cites and detach sufficient forces to isolate/contain. Seal N & W borders of Ukraine, maintain multiple maneuver reserve groups in central, northern & western Ukraine.
Detach minor mobile maneuver units deep patrol & sweep from fixed, defensive/fire support bases, offering mutual & ready reaction support.
Mobile border detachments establish defensive/supply points along the N & W borders. Prepare to transform to subsequent ‘peacekeepers’ re a N & W pseudo DMZ.
Sieged/encircled/blocked towns & cities will surrender quickly given no resources no life sustaining infrastructure.
(3)Optionally: Main Force modest frontage axis of advance from N on E-W access aside Polish border, detach 40% of direct/indirect Heavy combined arms units, primary BTGs, maneuver units S, on N-S axis of advance & seal the right bank of Dneiper river, cutting all MSRs a& possibility of retreat, denying support & reinforcement to trapped and isolated AFU forces on left bank of Dnieper, being pinned by modest RF forces in situ in contact E of current AFU positions all along FEBA. Surrounded, no Logistics support, no reinforcement, no medivac, under direct attack from all directions, & under indirect arty/rocket fire on two fronts, under relentless air attack by RF attack Helos & Ground attack fast movers, Any remaining AD rapidly annihilated. On a death ride to Valhalla in massive numbers unless promptly surrender. No prospect of reforming under fire or forming up for a contest river assault crossing under fire in contact.
Main force enters central Ukraine and detaches Maneuver units to patrol, sweep & raid, all AFU units & infrastructure, that do not immediately surrender when contacted by recon screen.
Upon collapse/surrender of majority of AFU on left bank, proceed as for (2) above. (See: OpPlan & execution by Israeli Forces at Conclusion of Yom Kippur War ’73. Very applicable scenario (substitute Suez Canal for Dnieper River, RF is Israel, AFU is a shattered immobile attritted Egyptian Army..
Assist ‘Liberated’ civil populace to create new Neutral Constitution lawfully permitting pseudo DMZ & Peacekeepers. No standing military permitted, no alliances nor treaties.
Pack up major formations & go home.
Watch Empire have apoplectic fit.
Just sayin’.
Peace
moaobserver | Nov 20 2022 16:44 utc | 24
who exactly is impressed with NATO’s weapons?
what’s more impressive is how openly NATO admits that the war is about “testing weapons”. they get an “A” for effort. they swing a good wrecking ball. another country bites the dust. millions more refugees. what else is a NATO leader to do but applaud the effort? billions and billions wasted. industrial collapse. environmental wreckage everywhere. Bravo!
Western nations just staged ANOTHER show trial, to drape their naked aggression in the fig leaf of legality, re MH17. how soon before they start shipping Ukrainian refugees to the death camps in Rwanda, assuming it isn’t happening already? (but China has its Wigger problem! everybody does it! everybody has a Gaza city in their midst!)
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 20 2022 20:49 utc | 94
” If the Ukraine government would not disperse the rioters, what is there to help? Syria held out for four years, Crimean’s and the ethnic Russian’s of Donbas were willing to fight but not Yanukovych and the Ukraine government.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 20 2022 20:35 utc | 90 ”
Wasn’t it Putin that told Yanukovych not to fight back with force ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 20 2022 20:51 utc | 95
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 18:56 utc | 56
Posted by: james | Nov 20 2022 20:08 utc | 78
Yes…the die had been cast long ago.
But it could work as part of my series of historically revisionistic science fiction/fantasy based upon how history would have unfolded had only the following happened:
1. The Aztecs defeat the Spanish at Tenochtitlan.
2. All the indigenous tribes of the eastern coast of N. American form a military alliance in the early 17th century.
3. US govt gives 40 acres and a mule to every freedman after the Civil War.
4. JFK, Malcolm X, MLK, and RFK are not assassinated.
3. NATO doesn’t expand or EU/Ukraine/Russia sign trade agreement in 2013.
Posted by: Objective Observer | Nov 20 2022 20:53 utc | 96
Lex | Nov 20 2022 18:20 utc | 45
I suspect frontline conditions for Ukraine forces in the winter will not be pleasant. One unit a week or so back were complaining they had no sleeping bags.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 20 2022 20:53 utc | 97
Judging by the regular threatening statements of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, ex-President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev in connection with the situation in Ukraine, it seems that he has launched an election campaign for the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in 2024. But rather early presidential elections. Seeing V. Putin’s failure in Ukraine and his inability to adequately respond to what is happening, he realized that “Akela missed” and perhaps his time has come.
Let me remind you that in August 2008, it was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who took responsibility for the decision to send troops to Georgia. While the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation V.Putin, before that, urgently fled Moscow for the opening of the Olympics in Beijing to avoid responsibility for making very difficult decisions in that crisis situation. And the most interesting thing is that, according to Dmitry Medvedev in an interview shortly after the victory in Georgia, he, as President of the Russian Federation, could not contact his prime minister in Beijing for a day, because all Putin’s phones, including government communications, were disconnected. And then for the first time there was a public conflict between Medvedev and Putin, because Putin denied this shameful fact. But the fact that Putin returned to Russia only when the situation stabilized and our troops entered Tskhinval is a reliable fact. And he, having flown from Beijing to Vladikavkaz, defiantly did not meet with the command of the military operation in Georgia, but only held a meeting with the administration of North Ossetia about helping refugees.
So we stock up on popcorn and perhaps in the near future we will watch the fight of two bulldogs under the carpet. As it is described in the famous metaphor: “A fight of bulldogs under the carpet — nothing is visible, only from time to time a bulldog bitten to death falls out”
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/581
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 20 2022 20:54 utc | 98
@Outraged | Nov 20 2022 20:46 utc | 93
(1)Gotta go nth, seal the Polish/Bulgarian(?) border,
I don’t think you mean Bulgarian border… Ukraine does not border Bulgaria. To seal the Bulgarian border, Romainia would first have to be conquered.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 20 2022 20:55 utc | 99
The theory of a fertilizer depot being targeted to initiate a larger explosion does not sound credible. In rural communities there will be distribution sites which custom mix according to customer specifications….other than ammonia nitrate the other components are practically rock. To initiate pure ammonia nitrate it has to be purified and ground to a fine powder…or ANFO needs diesel fuel mixture and booster charge. I would assume a small village would have relatively small amount of solid fertilizer kril stockpiled. The massive explosion in Beirut harbour was a clandestine storage or distribution point for munitions
Posted by: Joe | Nov 20 2022 20:59 utc | 100