Ukraine Open Thread 2022-199
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.
Posted by b on November 15, 2022 at 14:19 UTC | Permalink
next page »Ukranazistan is under heavy attack by cruise missiles launched by TU 95s. What's interesting is that yesterday Ukranazi Telegram channels seemed to predict this would happen today onwards. How did they know?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 14:37 utc | 2
They were told to take the current Russian offer or suffer. They chose to fight on so the bombs fall.
Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 15 2022 14:47 utc | 3
Ukraine/Rus Telegram channel going nuts with reports of up to 40 Rockets landing all over Ukraine. Kiev and Lvov 'de-energised':
https://t.me/intelslava/41097
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/39073
We can assume that the Russians didn't waste their time in resuming their Uki power grid destruction campaign... after wasting their time talking to America.
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 15 2022 14:47 utc | 4
Evidently the 'negotiations' in Ankara didn't go well ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 14:56 utc | 5
So CBS news and Amnesty International were right about much of the Aid to Ukraine not getting to the people or the soldiers. Why? Elensky and his pals were putting the aid money into FTX crypto and then it was recycled to who knows where. Most pundits of course say that it went back to the Gov of the USA and their pals. No wonder the powers that be in the USA shut down all discussion of the Ukraine being corrupt …again. No wonder it was written into American law that there should be no traceability of American aid to the Ukraine.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 15 2022 14:56 utc | 6
John Helmer translates an interesting article on Russia's current strategy..
http://johnhelmer.net/
Posted by: bevin | Nov 15 2022 14:58 utc | 7
... What's interesting is that yesterday Ukranazi Telegram channels seemed to predict this would happen today onwards. How did they know?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 14:37 utc | 2
Any links to yesterday posts? I don’t know the relevant channels.
Possibly deduced from RF aircraft / transport movements seen by NATO satellites.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 15 2022 15:02 utc | 8
Biswapriya Purkayast
Russia cannot keep anything a secret. Remember before the invasion, US intelligence was proved right for weeks, months even that Russia would invade.
West and Ukraine know what is going on on the russian side, the SIGINT intelligence is leaking and lots of HUMINT like spies is at fault.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 15 2022 15:13 utc | 9
https://sonar21.com/angry-turks-talking-turkey-in-turkiye/
If Ukraine really did have Russia on the ropes, with victory in its grasp, why would anyone in Washington want to encourage Ukrainian President Zelensky to negotiate?
Very true. Conversely, if the hybrid NATO-Ukraine armed forces really have shot their bolt and can only wait to be rolled back by an imminent Russian counteroffensive, why would anyone in Moscow want to "negotiate", especially since if sentient they know they're talking only to pathological liars.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:16 utc | 10
Has US brokered a lasting peace deal between Israel and Palestinians yet ?
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 15 2022 15:16 utc | 11
Good to see that Russia is keeping up the attack on the electrical infrastructure. Saw on one of the telegram channels yesterday that the Russians destroyed a huge substation on the way out of Kherson and now the entire right bank and part of Nikolaev are w/o power. Maybe the Ukraine collaborators who stayed in Kherson can wrap themselves in Ukrainian flags to stay warm... And then there are today's widespread strikes. I can only hope that the Ukraine leadership can take off their Nazi-tinted glasses and see this war is not winnable. Either that or a coup by the Ukraine military. Not holding my breath.
Posted by: ctiger | Nov 15 2022 15:24 utc | 12
is masking the growing pressure from the citizens of NATO countries to halt financial support to Ukraine while they suffer with rising prices and contracting economies.
Just noted a bag of milk had risen from €1,15 to €1,89 and simply cannot see any reason besides retailer greed - 64% !!!!!
The whole show is deliberate to force down living standards and entrench corporate profits.......the enthusiasm for mRNA experimental injections encourage the Nomenklatura.......they have destroyed traditional drug testing in one fell swoop
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 15 2022 15:26 utc | 13
Already a week or two ago someone in Kiev city council expressed an opinion that they recommend Kiev population leaving for the winter. This is probably now a very high chance.
One of the strategic objective must/should also be to make the cost for EU even higher and more messy to keep 404 on life support. This should become a large success. If EU is hellbent to do whatever it takes to please the masters in Washington, then they won't mind paying like hell, either.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 15:28 utc | 14
I think a message is being sent with this,
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1592534838388871168
"Get Used To Subzero"
https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1591676917832634368
Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 15 2022 15:31 utc | 15
Interesting clip and interesting comment:
https://t.me/goldgoatsnguns/37072
Strange looking, but also reminds me of what a satellite coming down looks like.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 15:34 utc | 16
@ Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:16 utc | 10
as i have said many times, it is all pr and hollywood... team usa-nato have to be seen in a favourable light, so negotiating has to be seen as being a part of this.. it doesn't matter that the usa and friends are negotiation incapable.. paul was answering you as well, indirectly.. see his post again, which was below yours @ 10..
@ Paul Greenwood | Nov 15 2022 15:16 utc | 11
Has US brokered a lasting peace deal between Israel and Palestinians yet ?
answer? - usa is completely full of shite and always has been..
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 15:42 utc | 17
It's obvious Russia is gradually turning up the pain dial, hoping the U.S. will give in to the Russian security demands at some point. But they really ought to know better by now. The Americans are too stubborn and too arrogant and besides, they couldn't care less about the pain dial being turned up on the Ukrainians. Russia probably knows this and my guess is they're doing this to show the world who's the reasonable adult here and who's the psychopath.
Posted by: aquileia | Nov 15 2022 15:46 utc | 18
speaking of pr, usa-nato put on another fine display at the g 19.. get the bimbo to address the g 19.. make it another big bullshit pr event..
" Zelensky addressed the gathering as the “G19” in an apparent snub to Russia’s membership in the club of leading world economies, and demanded a number of concessions from Moscow before he would agree to negotiate. Lavrov described the demands as “unacceptable.”
welcome to hollywood... meanwhile the neocons continue on unabated behind this bullshit mask of negotiating...
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 15:47 utc | 19
james | Nov 15 2022 15:42 utc | 17
"team usa-nato have to be seen in a favourable light, so negotiating has to be seen as being a part of this.."
So this is you now acknowledging that fake "negotiations" serve nothing but the empire's purpose, and that Russia assists them when it plays along. Glad to hear it.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:52 utc | 20
@ OohCanada | Nov 15 2022 14:47 utc | 3
The next 'Take it or leave it Offer' dropped on the table will be even less palatable
@ Brother Ma | Nov 15 2022 14:56 utc | 6
ICRC formally ceased humanitarian & aid programs in Odessa region & city months ago due to Nazi Gualiter/Governor & city Mayor redirecting majority of supplies to commercial sale for profit in their corrupt cronies local businesses, stores, shops, drug stores, mixed service gas stations.
If true, it tends to confirm that Ukr. KIA are going to accelerate. They are pushed ( at Azov gunpoint) into offensives they cannot win. They lack air support, artillery and armor.
Russian 'rope a dope' against Ukraine is working. Ukraine must advance and so must die in large numbers.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 15 2022 16:02 utc | 22
They should end the war - it’s a colossal waste of human life.
From a Russian security p.o.v. I don’t see how ending the war works for Russia though. Ukraine will quickly develop long-range strategic weapons capable of striking Moscow, will have robust paramilitary & espionage networks with tendrils running through Russia and the entire CIS. Everything Putin said was the reason FOR the SMO in February will be truer if the war ends this winter.
But, the Russians are also ill-equipped for winter. In any event, I expect more floundering from the Russian military and allies. The war probably has to go on straight until Russian military collapses or mutinies.
Posted by: GoFast | Nov 15 2022 16:11 utc | 23
Looks like VZ's prize for his petulant "G19" comments will be that there's no power for him to fly home into Kiev.
Posted by: Lord Khamul Toe | Nov 15 2022 16:13 utc | 25
For those who aren't on Telegram:
It is strange that we learn about the future actions of the RF Armed Forces from Ukrainian sources.The Ukrainian authorities expect a powerful blow to the infrastructure on November 15-16.
According to Ordinary Tsarism sources, the Ukrainian security forces are waiting for Russian strikes on infrastructure.
“Presumably, the strikes will be carried out by strategic aircraft and UAVs on November 15-16. Kharkiv and Kyiv are on the list of targets,” the source said. https://t.me/ukraina_ru/115979
The nazis even knew that it would be strategic bombers launching the missiles, not ships or ground based systems!
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 16:16 utc | 26
Posted by: Lord Khamul Toe | Nov 15 2022 16:13 utc | 25
Azov battalion had some candle march a few days ago - maybe they can borrow some to light up Kiev airport runway for Zelensky's return.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 16:18 utc | 27
It looks to me like the leader of the free world had better things to do than visit Bali. I can understand why he'd go through the motions of negotiating with the West but I'm reckoning that in reality he is more concerned by the opinions in Lesotho than in Germany. Lesotho being the man-in-the-street while Germany is simply a powerless bloviating political enemy.
Posted by: Guy L'Estrange | Nov 15 2022 16:21 utc | 28
why would anyone in Moscow want to "negotiate", especially since if sentient they know they're talking only to pathological liars.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:16 utc | 10
It is good that the two countries who have enough nuclear weapons between them to end all life on earth are keeping lines of communication open.
Posted by: Down South | Nov 15 2022 16:22 utc | 29
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 16:16 utc | 26
The nazis even knew that it would be strategic bombers launching the missiles, not ships or ground based systems!
Do you know what is truly strange?
They could not do a thing about it.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 16:23 utc | 30
"In Kyiv, the arrival at the building of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the operational command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was confirmed.
Here are the promised missile strikes on decision-making centers."
https://t.me/ZandVchannel/39092
Suddenly the decision to move civilians and 20,000 troops out of the way of a potential damn burst makes a lot more sense. If Russia was planning to go for the jugular, removing any chance of a spiteful payback attack and minimising blowback kinda makes sense (no matter how bad it was that that bridgehead had not been reinforced in the 9 months since it was taken).
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 15 2022 16:25 utc | 31
@ Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:52 utc | 20
not just now... this has been my position for a long time... usa is negotiation incapable... end of story...
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 16:26 utc | 32
John Helmer translates an interesting article on Russia's current strategy.. http://johnhelmer.net/Posted by: bevin | Nov 15 2022 14:58 utc | 7
That was a good find and introduction by Helmer.
Be sure to listen to the linked poem ;-)
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/play/77064
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 15 2022 16:28 utc | 33
From Helmer I found this channel. Looks interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMmD_Va60SI
Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 15 2022 16:31 utc | 34
Piss poor Russian army retreats from Kharkov..where counter offensive that was promised...never happened. Now retreat from Kherson city.In addition they continue to struggle uprooting Ukronazis from Donetsk region.This Armageddon guy is so far much ado about nothing!
Posted by: Ken B | Nov 15 2022 16:37 utc | 35
@ Guy L'Estrange | Nov 15 2022 16:21 utc | 28
LOL. Eloquent turn of phrase. :)
@ Et Tu | Nov 15 2022 16:25 utc | 31
Well that IS a significant event. Key indicator RF is likely to saddle up and Ride, come the ground freeze circa ~mid Dec into Jan24.
I’m amazed at the amount of nazi worship in America now. There is a daily comic strip humour site I have been commenting on for about 12 years; many of the other commentators have almost become friends. They knew that I draw a comic strip satirising war/terrorism and skewering the American proxy headchoppers in Syria and Iraq. Yesterday a few of them finally discovered my current strips about the nazis in Ukranazistan and went ballistic. And yet most of them probably never heard of the country before, at the earliest, mid 2021.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 16:38 utc | 37
@ bevin | Nov 15 2022 14:58 utc | 7
thanks! here is a direct link to it... worth reading...
WHEN MARSHAL KUTUZOV JOINS GENERAL WINTER AND GENERAL SUROVIKIN, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT ON THE FRONT
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 16:38 utc | 38
@ Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 16:38 utc | 37
keep up the good work!
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 16:39 utc | 39
Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 15 2022 16:25 utc | 31
As usual, Putin and his General Staff are dozens of steps ahead of the rest of us.
Watching him is like watching a chess grand master at work - we may criticize, rage, deliberate on why he would make such incompetent moves but over and over we find ourselves stunned as the brilliance of his moves are revealed in the fullness of time.
Watch and learn, n00bs!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 16:42 utc | 40
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes: To the curious incident of the Ukraine's Missile defense in the night-time.
Gregory: Ukraine's Missile defense did nothing in the night-time.
Holmes: That was the curious incident.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Adventure_of_Silver_Blaze
I'm sure I'm grossly exaggerating with that, but there's been scant reports of dog's barking/intercepted missiles, but plenty of reports of a stolen horse/missiles hitting their targets.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 15 2022 16:43 utc | 41
@ET Tu #31
It's hard to tell if Russia is worn down or just being crafty.
The Nato gang spent months planning that battle, they slowly moved an entire army into position, had the air defense moved to the exact perfect spots, had small ammunition stashes everywhere and Boom! Set it up in the wrong spot.
They are insisting it is still Russian, they are either crazy or they want Zelensky to publicly hand it over. I'm not sure they want this thing to end.
Posted by: OohCanada | Nov 15 2022 16:43 utc | 42
ntel Slava Z
🇺🇲🇷🇺🇺🇦 US strongly condemns latest Russian missile strikes on Ukraine: White House adviser Sullivan.....
james strongly condemns usa-nato continued support to fight russia down to the last ukrainian and western mercenary..
Posted by: james | Nov 15 2022 16:44 utc | 43
excellent article by Helmer. the Russian military and General Winter are not paying attention to propaganda.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 15 2022 16:47 utc | 44
Belgorod governor announced the shelling of the city of Shebekino, according to preliminary information, there are two dead and three injured
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 16:53 utc | 45
Russia proper hit again.
#Russia says 2 people died in shelling of #Shebekino, about 5 miles/8km from the border with #Ukraine. Three others were injured in the #Belgorod town ** Graphic video - victims blurred **https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1592562172156325889
It is like Russia have no knowledge, no ability, no means to do better.
Belgorod have been attacked past 6 months, or even even longer.
Kick Shoigu and the horrid generals out!
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 15 2022 17:08 utc | 46
Belgorod have been attacked past 6 months, or even even longer. Kick Shoigu and the horrid generals out!Posted by: Zanon | Nov 15 2022 17:08 utc | 46
Sounds like a slow Tuesday lunch hour in Chicago for the past 6 years. Kick Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Governor Pritzker out.
Gee... its not that hard, can you give me a reference for whatever troll farm you are working for, it seems I surpass their low standards.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 15 2022 17:19 utc | 47
I understand that it annoys many people to have someone post quotes from SOUTH FRONT and other sites. However; my ISP now forbids me from visiting that site and others. I for one would greatly appreciate being able to see as many alternative viewpoints as possible.
It would appear that Russia is finally engaging in the same type of strategic bombing campaign that the US employed against Iraq, twice.
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Nov 15 2022 17:21 utc | 48
US strongly condemns latest Russian missile strikes on Ukraine: White House adviser Sullivan. ~ IntelSlava
I smell another UN resolution being drafted.
Unfortunately, this does not end until the pain dial in the US reaches what it will be in Europe in February.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 15 2022 17:24 utc | 49
Suddenly the decision to move civilians and 20,000 troops out of the way of a potential damn burst makes a lot more sense. If Russia was planning to go for the jugular, removing any chance of a spiteful payback attack and minimising blowback kinda makes sense (no matter how bad it was that that bridgehead had not been reinforced in the 9 months since it was taken).
I think you're correct, which is why it amuses me when I see people react to Russian military moves the way they do. The fact is, no one knows the rationale nor do we know emergent factors that guides different moves. All we see are after effects, and people react to that. It is better for folks to just observe what is going on and wait to make informed analysis other than assume Russia is weak or other nonsense. Last point, most people critical of Russian military moves are westerners unfamiliar with real war, they've watched too many movies and have also been brainwashed why the U.S and NATO excursions in the middle east. They also seem to forget that for most of those wars, the U.S was never able to hold large swaths of territory both in Iraq and Afghanistan, all they held was some form of green zone, where they rarely venture out of. They hide in the green zone and drop bombs on civilians, another strategy the U.S used is pay off enemies not to fight them. Yet, you read these numskulls on here talk about how Russia who can captured and held over 20% of Ukraine is not doing enough. As you've correctly pointed out, the Russian and maneuvering and they don't owe any one of us an explanation, all we can do is wait to see the end result.
Posted by: AntiLogic | Nov 15 2022 17:24 utc | 50
"Demilitarization and denazification are most easily carried out under conditions of de-electrification." said an anonymous poster elsewhere.
Largest missile strike yet today, about a hundred. Looks like Kiev itself may have 2 weeks before below freezing sets in for the season. That's plenty of time to surrender.
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 15 2022 17:27 utc | 51
Elmer Fudd
. However; my ISP now forbids me from visiting that site and others. I for one would greatly appreciate being able to see as many alternative viewpoints as possible.
Download a VPN browser (there are simple, free ones like Tor browser, Psiphon etc)
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 15 2022 17:30 utc | 52
Kiev forecast for Saturday; high of -3C, low of -8C, snow showers
No electricity = immediately no petrol pumps, no card payments, no check-outs....
https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/ua/boyarka/IBOYAR1
Posted by: Lapin | Nov 15 2022 17:34 utc | 53
Putin does not understand how the new greeny western elites and "politicans" re ticking and working.
They re all sadistic sociopaths, Liars, Gamblers, fanatics, con artist, irresponsible businessmen, sect leaders, rapists, pedos, tyrant, embezzler, corrupt, pornographer, gays, transgenders, .....
On the other side u ve naive Putin who is a GUTMENSCH and believes in family, traditon, society of values, honesty, religion, .......
Putin has to adapt to new depraved Zeitgeist of the west.
He must act and behave like a brutal gambler and not like a wanna be gentleman 5D chessplayer.
Furthermore the old school diplomatic school is history.
The russian diplomats a total outdated and out of place.
Diplomats nowdays re dishonest people kind of modern BARON MÜNCHHAUSEN so storytellers.
the weaker outdated diplomats like Lavrov and others must be substituted with stronger players who are ruthless, sly and even exorbitant. Kind of Mafia style spirit diplomat.
People who would not be blackmailed by west because their children are studying/ living in the west, and people who would not fulfil the political demands of the western kidnappers.
The western sociopaths understands only the language of force at any price!
Maybe you know this law under the sentence: 'Only the strongest survive.
The West only respects brutal force.
Nothing else
The ukraine theater is for Russia a journey so replete with challenges, internal and external, that weaklings have no place there.
But Putin shows weaknesses and that is dangerous for russias existence as nation.
His time has run out and he will be put in chains by the west by his wannabe allies
To rely on allies like China, India, Turkey or Iran is totally naive and dangerous.
These are bloodsuckers who re only waiting to suck the blood out of Russia.
They will groan, grin and bear it; in Russia, it is a matter of life or death.
Why do yu think the Northorean have prohibited the purchase of land to China?
Northkorean do not trust Chian one meter. In fact they hate China more than the USA.
they only have common interests and nothing else.
Chinese investments inside Northkorea are not welcome.
Posted by: ratkomladic | Nov 15 2022 17:38 utc | 54
Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 15 2022 17:27 utc | 51
They will not surrender, but it will make it more costly for Nato and EU to continue the war, especially in Donbass and SE of Ukraine in both direct (logistic) and indirect (e.g. life support for rest of Ukraine or western Ukraine). Which needs to be seen as a strategic objective, imho. EU is carrying the major part of all costs including the whole state budget, and costs up to 100 % of total GDP.
They are paying the whole black hole and sending piecemeal attacks and troops into the Donbass, which is why things don't seem to be moving - every day Russians are busy rejecting attacks. They do it at very favorable loss ratio, meaning the attacks get gradually weaker.
Also, per John Helmers latest article, the UAF brigades in Kherson can't be redeployed immediately, they too, need to be rebuilt and reinforced. From what reserves, one may ask.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 17:41 utc | 55
I wrote this yesterday: "The sooner there is peace the better. A mass migration of freezing, starving and sick Ukrainians is the last thing Europe needs. Just checked the weather prognosis for the coming ten day period. Freezing temperatures are expected in Kiev and Lvov. The rolling black outs are increasing in length. The Russians knew what they were doing as without necessary repairs the grid will collapse. The 600 diesel generators sent by the European Union are a piss in the Mississippi as far keeping the cities functioning. Moscow knows this and NATO does as well. Time for negotiations or surrender."
As there hasn't been any breakthrough Russian missiles turned the lights off this afternoon with the largest infrastructure attack yet. It appears they hit everything. I wish this was just propaganda. Or trolls. It is extremely sad. The weakest are always hit the hardest. I hate war.
Posted by: Okille | Nov 15 2022 17:43 utc | 56
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 15:52 utc | 20
I would say that these negotiation attempts, and the previous ones that Johnson was said to have scuppered, were completely genuine, at least from Russia’s perspective. It appears that the first negotiations were also genuine from Zelensky’s perspective, such that Johnson’s intervention was deemed necessary.
Russia’s interest is in achieving its geopolitical goals with the minimum loss of life, Russian lives especially but also Ukrainian lives. It’s geopolitical goals also include cultivating the approval and trust of its allies and potential allies.
Russian offers of negotiation are genuine, the alternative is the SMO.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 15 2022 17:46 utc | 57
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 15 2022 16:16 utc | 26
Thanks for that, interesting.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 15 2022 17:50 utc | 58
How can you sign a peace deal with a country that tears up hard negotiated agreements with a change og government and a flourish of an executive pen. Agreements mean nothing to the West except as an excuse to buy time and continue on their palpably obvious goals of subjugation and assimilation.
The Borg of Star Trek fame were less deceitful
Posted by: DaVinci | Nov 15 2022 18:08 utc | 59
anon2020 | Nov 15 2022 17:46 utc | 57
"Russian offers of negotiation are genuine.."
That's what I suspected and feared from the moment I heard, just days into the invasion, that the Russians already wanted to talk to those who anyone sentient knows cannot be talked to, that being fooled twice wasn't enough for this leadership but they were still the most gullible game for a Minsk III. And I suspect it now too.
"Russia’s interest is in achieving its geopolitical goals with the minimum loss of life, Russian lives especially but also Ukrainian lives."
The original Russian notion of going slow and soft to spare the lives and property of western Ukrainians because these too would greet them as liberators was quickly disproved by reality. In that case the way a combatant power minimizes civilian casualties is by getting the war over and done with as quickly as possible. Given what we've seen of how brutal the Kiev regime and the war itself have been to the Ukrainians, it's long been indisputable that the most merciful thing toward them Russia could have done would have been to go all in and finish the complete subjugation of the entire country last spring when they had the opportunity to do so.
The Yes-trolls like to accuse advocates of more assertive Russian action of "Western thinking", but this is just their usual exercise in projection. On the contrary, they're the ones who share the US attitude that the Ukrainians are there just to be used and abused and used up. If the Russians had gone all in from the start this theater war would long since have been won with far less loss of life.
"It’s geopolitical goals also include cultivating the approval and trust of its allies and potential allies."
Allies and potential allies will approve of resolve, competence and victory. They'll turn away from a leadership which makes a fetish of technicalities and "forms" and a pathetic compulsion to "negotiate" based on personal psychological weakness, all at the expense of these.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 18:14 utc | 60
So, the war machine of the us is preparing to gear up and make the previous deliveries to Ukraine look like a trickle;
“Let’s do the comparison:
– The current star of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is Lockheed Martin’s HIMARS rocket system, the same weapon U.S. Marines used to help reduce much of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, to rubble in 2017. The U.S. has only sent 38 HIMARS systems to Ukraine, but Senators Reed and Inhofe plan to “reorder” 700 of them, with 100,000 rockets, which could cost up to $4 billion.
– Another artillery weapon provided to Ukraine is the M777 155 mm howitzer. To “replace” the 142 M777s sent to Ukraine, the senators plan to order 1,000 of them, at an estimated cost of $3.7 billion, from BAE Systems.
– HIMARS launchers can also fire Lockheed Martin’s long-range (up to 190 miles) MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, which the U.S. has not sent to Ukraine. In fact the U.S. has only ever fired 560 of them, mostly at Iraq in 2003. The even longer-range “Precision Strike Missile,” formerly prohibited under the INF Treaty renounced by Trump, will start replacing the ATACMS in 2023, yet the Reed-Inhofe Amendment would buy 6,000 ATACMS, 10 times more than the U.S. has ever used, at an estimated cost of $600 million.
– Reed and Inhofe plan to buy 20,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles from Raytheon. But Congress already spent $340 million for 2,800 Stingers to replace the 1,400 sent to Ukraine. Reed and Inhofe’s amendment will “re-replenish” the Pentagon’s stocks 14 times over, which could cost $2.4 billion.
– The United States has supplied Ukraine with only two Harpoon anti-ship missile systems – already a provocative escalation – but the amendment includes 1,000 Boeing Harpoon missiles (at about $1.4 billion) and 800 newer Kongsberg Naval Strike Missiles (about $1.8 billion), the Pentagon’s replacement for the Harpoon.
– The Patriot air defense system is another weapon the U.S. has not sent to Ukraine, because each system can cost a billion dollars and the basic training course for technicians to maintain and repair it takes more than a year to complete. And yet the Inhofe-Reed wish list includes 10,000 Patriot missiles, plus launchers, which could add up to $30 billion.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 15 2022 18:15 utc | 61
Biswapriya Purkayast @ 37
I’m amazed at the amount of nazi worship in America now.
Real life is hard, multifaceted, full of contradictions, moral difficulties, much cognitive dissonance to confront that tires the brain cells, causes the gears to grind. Much easier to just switch to 2D mode and be a nazi, life and the road ahead becomes suddenly clear when you're self-medicating with ideological Thorazine. For the more spirited ones they finally found and released their inner brute, a way to liberate a lifetime of accumulated inchoate anger, a cork popping out of a bottle. Must feel good, finally self actualization.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 18:16 utc | 62
Odnamrod Meditation #4:
It appears the UN is unable to fulfill it's primary purpose: Prevention of potentially world-ending war on the scale of WW2 or greater.
Instead, it is becoming a unstable system amplifying the oscillations moving the globe closer to nuclear annihilation.
At this point it may not sufficient to say the UN should be disbanded as it no longer fulfills it's purpose but that it must be disbanded before it achieves the exact thing it was created to prevent.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 18:29 utc | 63
UKR air defense misses? RF missiles struck down or off course? False Flag for Poland to escalate???
From /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global:
Polish Radio Zet reports Two stray missiles fell in the Polish town of Przewodów on the Polish side of the Poland border with Ukraine! They hit the grain dryers. Two Polish Citizens died during the attack. The local police, the prosecutor's office and the units of Polish Army are on site
Fakt News: Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki convenes an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 18:31 utc | 64
At this point it may not sufficient to say the UN should be disbanded as it no longer fulfills it's purpose but that it must be disbanded before it achieves the exact thing it was created to prevent.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 18:29 utc | 64
well said. or at least ostensibly created to prevent, at any rate.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 15 2022 18:33 utc | 65
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 15 2022 18:15 utc | 61
iirc the Patriot results were faked, or maybe I'm confusing it with other weapons systems with faked results.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 15 2022 18:35 utc | 66
@ Moaobserver | Nov 15 2022 18:15 utc | 61
According to this site RF military as yet didn't deploy around 15 types of their stand-off and offensive arsenal. Very few types of rockets, very small variety of their gliding bombs of various intensities, about 7 electronic warfare systems they have and all that by just looking in what is developed post 2000 and what is considered modern weaponry.
There are about 10 new systems under development and many of those are planned to be fielded or deployed in 2022-2023.
Nobody knows what else is there and in what number.
Last RF barrage looks as they are moving in to a kill, but let us better underestimate RF now then expect shock-awe-bang-flash space war there.
The more Ukraine and their administration are bad-mouthing RF, the more they will be pushed towards medieval age. More they shell Russian and basically still their own civilians, western and big cities Ukraine civilians will suffer.
However, it doesn't seem as a big and expected escalation yet. Maybe.
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 15 2022 18:40 utc | 67
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 18:31 utc | 65
Fake news. But we'll see what Poland does. The Polish government has been seeking for any way possible for "article 5" for ages and making any provocation possible to achieve it. This is called desperacy.
Meanwhile, there were plenty of videos of Ukrainian air defense missile ones again falling on residential buildings in Kiev. There is also evidence from past air defense attacks that they can sometimes for one reason or the other, make loops in the air and go straight back to the ground based on their visible jet trail.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 18:42 utc | 68
In around July the RF were clearly on top and winning, though many western commentators noted that the Severodonetsk operation appeared to have reached a culminating point. I was not so sure and had the good fortune in August to speak with two very senior ex-Nato (recent) people both of whom thought that the UAF were long term in trouble but that there was a path to victory for Ukraine. They both had access to much better intel than me.
What has occurred since then has been a series of Russian retreats and defeats - all explained away as good sense tactical withdrawals. We are informed by many who otherwise might insult us (Saker?) that we do not understand warfare and that "big arrow" attacks are counter-productive. Instead we are asked to believe that you can retreat your way to victory.4D chess.
I think most missed the UAF reserves being created in the early summer.
Well I think that Russia has played a good game on the economic front but has been blind on the military one. It was clear - or should have been after a short period - that NATO was going to supply arms, money and men in far greater abundance than was expected. The Ukrainian fighting spirit too has been underestimated. Russia has thus far not been fighting to win a military victory.
Now we hear rumours of peace negotiations.
Well let us examine the situation. At best Russia can negotiate a peace which leaves Ukraine holding parts of what it has recenently [annexed] to the Rodina. It has expended much blood, treasure and political capital. It has not beaten the Ukraine and instead it is re-armed and de facto if not de jure a part of NATO, run by extreme nationalists who are inherently hostile. Neutral nations will take note of these shortcomings. In other words the SMO will have been a failure.
So I do not expect peace. At least on these terms or any terms likely to be proposed by the USA - sorry Ukraine... If Putin tried to do this I suggest he would be replaced in short order by a harder line grouping. What I expect is a serious attempt at a military victory that allows Moscow to dictate the terms of a peace. And this is why DC is so keen to talk just now. My expectation is that we will see more war war, not jaw jaw.
The actual shooting war is a facet of a larger geo-political conflict, but nevertheless is existential for Russia. And it is a mystery why they don't appear to want to do what is necessary to win this war.
Posted by: marcjf | Nov 15 2022 18:44 utc | 69
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 18:42 utc | 69
There is also evidence from past air defense attacks that they can sometimes for one reason or the other, make loops in the air and go straight back to the ground based on their visible jet trail.
Probably a result of electronic jamming.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 18:44 utc | 70
LightYearsfromHome @ 62
Real life is hard, multifaceted, full of contradictions, moral difficulties, much cognitive dissonance to confront that tires the brain cells, causes the gears to grind. Much easier to just switch to 2D mode and be a nazi, life and the road ahead becomes suddenly clear when you're self-medicating with ideological Thorazine. For the more spirited ones they finally found and released their inner brute, a way to liberate a lifetime of accumulated inchoate anger, a cork popping out of a bottle. Must feel good, finally self actualization.
Or it's much easier to assume everyone else in the world is a Nazi. That makes life "clear" and gives you a justification to be a brute to anyone that confronts you about your own extremist stances.
Posted by: Inkan1969 | Nov 15 2022 18:50 utc | 72
Posted by: marcjf | Nov 15 2022 18:44 utc | 70
while you're at it, examine the possibility that Russia is complying with legal forms, in order to continue to comply with the legalities, and has no expectation that the US or NATO will negotiate in good faith, despite that Russia is winning the war. see the Helmer article linked earlier.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 15 2022 18:54 utc | 73
Moaobserver | Nov 15 2022 18:15 utc | 61
US first have to rebuild production lines, train staff ect to increase production. A couple of years away yet.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 15 2022 19:00 utc | 74
They should show the missile parts if they want to say it was a 50km error. Even that it can be faked. I bet they won't show anything. We'll see soon. There is no way it was a missile error after thousands never missed one target
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:05 utc | 75
I wonder if the AFU will now attempt to dislodge the RF from the east bank of the Dnieper at Kherson ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 19:06 utc | 76
Almost no troll comment since RF took out the rest of the electrical grid in one fast hit seemingly perfectly timed for when they need the grid the most. The flood of refugees should not take long to reach the news.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Nov 15 2022 19:08 utc | 77
ASTONISHING!!!
Apparently,ukraine lost 1,400 troops ("destroyed") in the battle of Pavlovka, which the Russians won.
Russian casualties amounted to 20 killed and 100 wounded.
This is according the Oracle of London, Alex Mercouris.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 15 2022 19:10 utc | 79
"According to Radio Lublin,the incident in Przewodów occurred about 16 hours on the reloading scales,was confirmed by the radio station in the local police. According to preliminary conclusions, the tractor that drove into the scales suddenly exploded"
Also look at the photos. There was an explosion that seems to be under that vehicle
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:11 utc | 80
This is also interesting from Slavyangrad TG, I have no idea who Roman Donetsky is. Seems neither side has what it takes to fight WW3, I guess that's a good thing:
On the topic of bridges and dams,
from Roman Donetsky (@DonRF22)
Two words about military planes. According to open data, in the Russian Air Force there are:
3 Su 57
97 Su 35
100 Su 27
110 Su 30
118 Mig 29
120 Mig 31
120 Su 34
70 Su 24
200 Su 25.
Of these, a few may be malfunctioning, some are in Syria, some are stationed in specific zones to cover the borders.
For serious strikes, we can assemble about a hundred Su-25s and 150 fighter-bombers. That's it.
To lose a third of the strike aircraft for the sake of bridges, and with experienced crews...The air force is being saved as a trump card, to parry offensives. And rightly so.
— Roman Donetsky
PS. The airforce would have been the only possible way to deal sufficient damage to bridges over the Dnepr river (and elsewhere) to count. All these bridges are in the heartland of the former Ukraine. The risk to the fleet from even the kind of dilapidated air defences that Ukraine has now, after months of war, is simply unjustifiable. Roman provides a complete answer as to why this type of campaign has not been attempted.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 19:13 utc | 81
SwissArmyMan @ 79
The flood of refugees should not take long to reach the news.
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/8624
Should be in Poland and Germany in a couple hours.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 19:18 utc | 83
LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 19:13 utc | 83
Why use airplanes for bridges??? That guy is crazy
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:18 utc | 84
[77] "There is no way it was a missile error after thousands never missed one target"
The only target thousands of Russian or US missiles will hit without missing is the earth. What do you think the percentage of Russian missiles that hit their target is? 50%? 80%?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 15 2022 19:20 utc | 85
Pentagon does not confirm Russian missiles error. Photos appeared too. I don't know what is it but comments say it's from S300.
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:21 utc | 86
flying dutchman. You seem to be exhibit A for some pretty evil shyte bro, I mean how sick and anti human does one have to be to declare Russia's reluctance to waste lives on either side some kind of failure? Give yer head a shake.
Does brother ma have links to the law passed for no oversite on Donations to 404?
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 15 2022 19:22 utc | 87
Russia won't need to "retake" Kherson with much force. When the large Russian force enters Ukraine from around Karkiv, they will have much of the Ukrainian forces trapped between them and Donetsk. When Russia advances a force toward Kiev, Odessa, or Zaporozhye, the majority of the forces in Kherson will be forced to move North out of the city to attack the main Russian forces. That's why Russia blew the bridges: the Ukrainian forces from Kherson will be forced into the battle where Russia chooses.
Posted by: barstool | Nov 15 2022 19:23 utc | 88
I hope the Poland incident does not spiral out of control with all those Polish hotheads around, that for whatever reason want a WWIII.
Posted by: Nico | Nov 15 2022 19:23 utc | 89
Theres no doubt these errant rockets that landed Poland in and killed Polish citizens.
Do they write it off as a tragic goof or do they have a wee party celebrating the opportunity to invoke the 5 ☺
Posted by: bunkerboygaz | Nov 15 2022 19:23 utc | 90
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 19:18 utc | 85
Yeah, Poland is now officially screwed. And Germany. And the Baltic states.
Hence Ukraine shot an air defense missile into Poland. No one will care.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 15 2022 19:24 utc | 91
i think all the Ukrainian refugees should be housed in Washington. probably could accommodate 2000 or so on the white house lawn. Congress and the Pentagon are pretty big.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 15 2022 19:24 utc | 92
Russian missiles that hit their target is? 50%? 80%?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 15 2022 19:20 utc | 87
+90% and 0% at +50km error
Now get lost
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:25 utc | 93
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:21 utc | 88
Could also be that the 404 State let loose a few in direction of Poland to stir s h i t.
Posted by: Tom_12 | Nov 15 2022 19:27 utc | 94
Bill Smith | Nov 15 2022 19:14 utc | 84
[65] Fake news
What is fake about it?
Indeed, if the Russians aren't hitting targets within Poland by now they should be. Should have been a long time ago, according to the long-ago, much-hyped and seemingly farcical "red line" against NATO intervention.
(What does seem fake is that a Russian missile strike within Poland should have such pathetic targeting and effects. Who knows, maybe it really was error.)
The fact that the Yes-men rush to call it "fake news" without knowing anything factual gives a powerful insight into their psychology: They really fear and loathe the idea that Russia ever really would take the gloves off, burn bridges and begin to fight as if this is the WWIII that it really is.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 15 2022 19:27 utc | 95
The Ukraine intercepted 100% of the Russian missiles!
With their infrastructure, weapons stockpiles, HQs, and troop concentrations.
Another case of the Ukraine proudly proclaiming "We stopped their fist with our face!"
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 15 2022 19:29 utc | 96
Power in Ukraine should be up and running in a couple of days, USA is sending in equipment and techs:
https://trekmovie.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/gilligan-telegraph.jpg
https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/gilligan5935/images/6/6b/00.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20160329221830
All kidding aside Rumsfeld shock & awe doesn't win shit just hardens the resolve of the other side, ask the Brits about the buzz bombs. Missiles don't take and hold ground but maybe that's to come with the new troops. Maybe the hybrid war strategy is not to break Ukrainian resolve but EU resolve by flooding the it with a tsunami of refugees during hard economic times.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 15 2022 19:29 utc | 97
"...in the fullness of time"
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 15 2022 16:42 utc | 40
Great line... and goes quite nicely with the now rare concept of Delayed Gratification
Perhaps it is WE who wanted Russia to move quicker, to satisfy our own impatience, like an end to all the trolling
If Putin were to paraphrase Orson Welles' ad for a wine company, he might say something like this:
"We will serve no Kinzahl before its time"
Posted by: ianMoone | Nov 15 2022 19:30 utc | 98
Russia's comments aren't designed to influence the West. They keep the citizens of Russia strongly behind the war. That's why Russia keeps publicly pushing for negotiations. It points to a fundamental difference between those living in Russia and those living in the West. Our governments lack of publicly pushing for those negotiations shows that they either don't care what we think, or they think that we don't care. Either option is disturbing.
Posted by: barstool | Nov 15 2022 19:31 utc | 99
Tom_12 | Nov 15 2022 19:27 utc | 96
Yes, it looks like that. mercenaries or polish soldiers could do it without Ukr army even knowing it too.
Posted by: rk | Nov 15 2022 19:31 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Interesting read by Larry Johnson
https://sonar21.com/angry-turks-talking-turkey-in-turkiye/
Posted by: Down South | Nov 15 2022 14:29 utc | 1