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November 13, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-198
Comments
It just occurred to me that the taking of Odessa, even with Kherson under control, was never a viable option anyway.
Looking at the map it’s clear any Russian push towards Odessa would be vulnerable to NATO attacks from the flank along the entire South of Ukraine.
The only way Russia can ever take Odessa is by first destroying the Ukrainian/NATO army.
So, Odessa is many months away and only on that condition. Or, as part of a treaty of some kind.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 2:46 utc | 201
Olaf Scholtz’s recent day-trip to Beijing is emblematic of this ‘thought-code’ style of politics that assumes that the latter trumps structural shift. Encapsulated in Scholtz’s approach is that….
karlof1 | Nov 13 2022 23:54 utc | 187
What happened to the championing of Escobar’s false conspiracy theory / claim that he had been long told German industrialists had been acting as major secret “peace plan” go-betweens with Russia until the NS pipeline attacks .. and Scholtz’s trip to China was to reconstitute these hard “peace plan” negotiations with President Xi being the new go between agent to take the message of offers to Mr Putin?
Have these now forgotten ‘thought-codes’ been jettisoned too?
Are we supposed to now believe it’s Crooke who has the inside running right on Scholtz and Xi’s China or that Escobar has it right with his subsequent unproven evidence free assertion it is the Saudis and Turkey that are now acting in secret concert to bring home this great fantastical “peace plan” for Ukraine & Russia?
Or they are wrong too, but Escobar is right when he also claimed it was Nikolai Patrushev and Jake Sullivan who were about to announce last week a different grandiose peace plan which included the requirement of Russia abandoning Kherson?
Well?
I’m having great trouble following who and what I am supposed to believe in these unending myth-making stories that people write about and are then shared around. Not only Escobar and Crooke, there are many more.
I put it to the readers here that none of them have a clue about what they write.
They are making it up all the time. A coin toss would be more reliable.
Politico has no clue and should never be used as reference point. Neither Crooke nor Politico have any clue what Brussels technocrats think or say to each other from one day to the next on any subject – the US congress and K Street included.
Escobar knows nothing about any peace plans for Ukriane nor has any expertise in the history or machinations of multinational Asian institutions like Apec and ASEAN or the EAS the RCEP or TTP and other matters discussed unless he read about it in some rag newspaper or online blog somewhere.
Talking about rehashing others ideas, thought bubbles and Plagiarism:-
Crooke writes:
“The problem is that when you can no longer get cheap Russian gas, and when the Americans – your new ‘best friends’- won’t let you export sensitive [engineering products or] technologies to China, [then] your special relationship with China comes to a premature end. You (Scholtz) have not thought this through.”
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/europeans-oblivious-to-unfolding-dynamics—-the-price-will
after eurointelligence.com writes:
“The problem is that when you can no longer get cheap Russian gas, and when the Americans, your new best friends, won’t let you export sensitive technologies to China, your special relationship with China will come to a premature end. The problem is you have not thought this through.”
4 November 2022 – Olaf alone in Beijing
Just saying, be careful who you choose to listen to and then put up on a pedestal!
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 2:52 utc | 202
I mean seriously, Jen is such an uncommon name right?
There couldn’t be two of them on the one forum, surely not.
Jen says: The comment @ 188 is from the troll.
Posted by: Jen | Nov 14 2022 0:54 utc | 197
Jen says: “Yes, that was a troll not me.”
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 23:58 utc | 188
Jen said: “The comment @ 102 is not mine.”
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 20:18 utc | 109
Jen said: “So instead of questioning my identity maybe you should …”
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 102
I’m so glad we got that cleared up.
More proof that logins or an entirely new forum system would be overkill and something those nefarious manipulative and evil Paid PsyOps Trolls would want you to do. Those Bastards!
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 3:03 utc | 203
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 2:46 utc | 215
Agreed. It was a lost opportunity , and likely due to a lack of manpower and a coordinated approach. We hear that Russia had autonomous leaders trying to achieve their own objectives which if true,begs the question ,”What do Gerasimov and Shoigu actually oversee ?”
Without taking Odessa, Nikolayev and Ochakov ,Russia has effectively conceded that the Black Sea is a Nato lake. Someone here has said that no Russian naval ship has exited Sevastopol harbour since the Nato seaborne drone attacks.
I won’t lie , militarily it looks like we have reached a stalemate.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 3:03 utc | 204
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 2:52 utc | 217
Just saying, be careful who you choose to listen to and then put up on a pedestal!
Oh I put nobody on a pedestal.
Especially those narcissistic personality disorder+ OCD types on this forum who persistently claim to be right while being mostly off base.
History makes fools of every one of us …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:05 utc | 205
Thanks and hats off to William Gruff, Haassaan, John and Suzan for spotting the fake Jen and warning others about the troll.
Thanks also to Tucenz and Melaleuca for their observations about my being trolled … it’s a backhanded form of compliment to what I usually do around here.
Posted by: Jen | Nov 14 2022 3:09 utc | 206
At the beginning of 1941, Germany had most of Europe at its feet, and was starting to consolidate its 1,000-year Reich. By the end of 1941, Germany was on the way to losing its war, after foolishly taking on the industrial might of the two emerging super-powers and the still-powerful British empire.
We can’t yet pinpoint the date when Vladimir Putin lost his war against Ukraine. But there is a good argument that it happened soon after the 2022 invasion. By calling his war a ‘special military operation’, it seems Putin thought he could do a sneak attack on the West in the guise of tidying up the borders to his country.
Unfortunately for him, there were eyes in the sky, and people to interpret the evidence of those eyes. And so the West was alerted and its military and productive capacity swung into action.
For the foreseeable future two forces will clash, and many thousands of human beings will be killed or dismembered for life, all for the vanity of an ageing autocrat.
However, in the longer term there a way out for Russia. To become a fully functioning, free and civilised nation, Russia needs to do at least two things:
1. Democratise. Rather than a top-down command society, where people shrug and defer to their betters, allow power to flow from the bottom up.
2. Investigate and come to terms with its despotic history, particularly the Soviet period, and especially the Stalinist regime with its mass executions and criminally incompetent gulags.
Both these activities would be generations-long and painful, but ultimately beneficial. Germany is the template: from the fever-dream, jackbooted nightmare of the Nazi period to today’s freer and thriving society.
Posted by: MrB | Nov 14 2022 3:12 utc | 207
@ Light 213
Armies move where bankers tell them to go.
I am an English convert/revert to Islam and before that happened 25 is years ago while I was browsing both the Gospels and Qur’an I attended a lecture by an Ametican / Canadian ? imam who was studying in Syria in the Custard Factory in Birmingham.
His point was that the neocons wanted to d destroy first secular Welfare politics like Russia and socialism and later Religious welfare politics like Christianity and Islam.
Another speaker informed us that Islam is the no. 1 custodian of Green politics, not like BoJo who announced a ban on oil exploration in Glasgow last year, followed four months later by an announcement that all oil prospecting was to be brought forward and exploited ASAP. Groinwash.
To be honest I detest any jihad that supports USULIS purely on the basis that it only increases the neocons Khazar belief in themselves. My Iraqi Muslim brothers assure me that what you say is true, that no jihadist in the world operates without the funding and direction of bankers.
Presidents Putin and Xi understand this point better than anyone, and Kadyrov is a monument to that fact by supporting Putin after Putin had razed Grozny to the ground against USUKIS banker terrorism.
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2022 3:28 utc | 208
Posted by: Hermit | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 101
Damn. If I were Bernhard, I would erase my own daily post and paste Hermit’s words in it’s place.
Cheers!
Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 14 2022 3:29 utc | 209
Scholtz wasn’t alone when he went to China. Onboard were German industrialists, including Mercedes and Volkswagen which have exited Russia. The commercial interests are way out in front of the politicians; they must be.
Volkswagen Group will be moving some of its European production out of the continent and into facilities located in China and the United States, citing the war in Ukraine as the largest contributing factor. Though if you’ve been following the company, it had already signaled a desire to raise its capacity in China ever since the region shifted into becoming its largest market.
In fact, Chief Executive Herbert Diess said during Tuesday’s press call that China will be taking precedence as the automaker reorganizes its manufacturing.
“We will shift more into China because of the situation in Europe,” the CEO explained, mentioning limited access to parts and raw materials since the war began. . .here . . . March 15, 2022.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 14 2022 3:37 utc | 210
Posted by: MrB | Nov 14 2022 3:12 utc | 222
1. Democratise. Rather than a top-down command society, where people shrug and defer to their betters, allow power to flow from the bottom up.
2. Investigate and come to terms with its despotic history, particularly the Soviet period, and especially the Stalinist regime with its mass executions and criminally incompetent gulags.
Hi Mr. Bolton, (MrB?) nice to see you also lurk on these forums! Are you perhaps also accompanied by Mrs. Albright (in spirit at least) ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:40 utc | 211
What to do with all that cold Boxing Day
troll turkey after the Troll Fest? Despair not , there are all sorts of things you can do, Troll stew, Troll bone and stuffing soup, Troll sandwiches, Troll Biriani or Frozen Troll saved for a later day
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 14 2022 3:40 utc | 212
@Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 13 2022 23:23 utc | 180
I love it! You are the taxonomicus populi
Posted by: fanto | Nov 14 2022 3:44 utc | 213
Giyane | Nov 14 2022 3:28 utc | 225
Hi Giyane, thank you for your honest posts.
Another speaker informed us that Islam is the no. 1 custodian of Green politics, not like BoJo who announced a ban on oil exploration in Glasgow last year, followed four months later by an announcement that all oil prospecting was to be brought forward and exploited ASAP. Groinwash.
Lol my friend a neologism: groinwash.
Posted by: jonku | Nov 14 2022 3:45 utc | 214
Giyane | Nov 14 2022 3:28 utc | 225
Hi Giyane, thank you for your honest posts.
Another speaker informed us that Islam is the no. 1 custodian of Green politics, not like BoJo who announced a ban on oil exploration in Glasgow last year, followed four months later by an announcement that all oil prospecting was to be brought forward and exploited ASAP. Groinwash.
Lol my friend a neologism: groinwash.
Posted by: jonku | Nov 14 2022 3:45 utc | 215
You people forever blathering about trolls are like a bunch of children.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 14 2022 3:49 utc | 216
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 3:03 utc | 219
Agreed. It was a lost opportunity , and likely due to a lack of manpower and a coordinated approach.
False. There was no opportunity to be lost to begin with.
The purpose of taking Kherson was not for Odessa.
It was merely a position with which to grind down Ukrainian forces.
And it served that purpose very well.
And now it’s time to move somewhere else: rinse, grind, repeat …
Without taking Odessa, Nikolayev and Ochakov ,Russia has effectively conceded that the Black Sea is a Nato lake.
Completely False. Once can tell, even prima facie: There are, to date,no NATO forces in the Black Sea.
Russia’s fleet within the Black Sea, unsinkable aircraft carrier in Crimea, missile fleet in the Caspian sea puts it in complete control of the Black Sea.
Should NATO ever enter the Black Sea, it will be entering an extreme kill zone.
Why do you think the Grain Deal required Russia’s participation?
Moreover, it’s clear now that Russia doesn’t need to take Odessa. It already controls everything that goes in and out of Odessa – again, the grain deal tells you that.
Russia has complete escalation dominance in the Black Sea.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:50 utc | 217
the link for – The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-197
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/the-moa-week-in-review-not-ukraine-ot-2022-197.html#comments
Cheers
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 3:57 utc | 218
Three times in the last century the Dnieper has been crossed and retreated from in major wars. For the purpose of brevity and some polemic convenience i will equate the Red Army with the army of the Russian Federation. As a supporter of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation i may be accorded some license. In 1918 the Red Army retreated over the Dnieper against a British funded and supplied army which incorporated an Azov section. The Red Army returned to the Dnieper, defeated the British proxy army and Ukraine was created. The second time, the Red Army in 1943 in one of the largest operations of the WWII fought at the Dnieper. It involved almost two and half million Red Army troops over 1,400 kilometres front. They confronted two million of the best troops in the German army commanded by von Manstein. Marshal Zuhkov on the east side of the river put forward a plan of patiently waiting, probing and finding a weak point and then driving a deep penetration through the German defences, encircling and destroying the German Ostwall that had been created the Germans by September 1943. Zhukov’s plan was rejected by the Stavka. There are two points here. The Russian army has fought over this massive river (the third largest in Europe) for a century and know the strategic and tactical realities of the terrain like no other army. Second, Zhukov’s plan was to conserve men and material after losses at the Battle of Kursk which was a victory for the Red Army. Clearly, General Sergei Surovikin is implementing something like the Zhukov plan. The Dnieper in some parts is three kilometres wide. Surovikin can wait patiently while on the western bank an army of a basically bankrupt and degraded country becomes totally dependent on an increasingly restive and ragged Europe. The cold and economic crisis will do their work on the western bank. In the meantime let the hyenas howl. They are picking over the corpse of a discredited war. An ignoramus here claimed history repeating is a myth. History can and must be learnt from. Surovikin is a graduate of an army that has bled and fought over the Dnieper. I would humbly suggest to the legion of armchair generals and critics posting here, that he knows precisely what he is doing.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 3:58 utc | 219
The present challenging situation should at last persuade Russia that the West (England, France, the US, Canada, Australia…) is no friend of hers.
Sadly, over the last 150 years, Russia was repeatedly cheated by the same countries into engaging in self-harming policies.
In the 1880′, Czar Alexander III was fooled into believing that Germany was Russia’s actual foe. Russia then consented to the scheme of millions of Russian peasants being slaughtered on the eastern battlefield for the sake of helping the French and the British in WWI. This resulted in the collapse of the Russian Empire.
In the 1980′, the then Soviet leaders were fooled into believing that the West would help them out of economic quagmire, and they implemented reforms to such an extent that the Soviet Union fell apart.
In the 1990′, the promised help of the West turned into a nightmare for the Russian people and to a major threat for the continued existence of the Russian state.
In the 2000′ Russia believed that the US needed international support after being attacked, and although not participating in the destruction of Iraq (same as Germany and France at the time), Russia refrained from open criticism of many “antiterrorist” US policies at home and abroad.
In 2011, the Russian leadership was fooled into condoning the brutal regime change in Libya which led to dire consequences in the region and beyond.
In 2014, Russia did not intervene at once to protect its Donbass compatriots with its military power. Instead Russia was cheated into the Minsk agreements which only bought time for the Kiev new regime to consolidate. Turkey in a similar situation in Cyprus (after the 1974 Nicosia coup) acted decisively to protect the Turkish minority, and Turkey has not become a pariah state for that.
In this recent period however Russia was not fooled on Georgia (2008) and from 2015 on Russia mightily helped Syria to restore its sovereignty.
And here we are.
Posted by: lahire | Nov 14 2022 4:01 utc | 220
@ Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:50 utc | 234
Well stated. Concur.
Odessa was realistically never an option re a direct E-W axis of advance with Kherson as a jumping off point. Inhospitable terrain, limited/fragmented frontages of advance, fragmented & brittle long trailing MSR vulnerable to indirect fires & severance along its entire E-W traverse, let alone huge broad open N flank requiring significant maneuver screen vulnerable to UAF maneuver capable forces & mobile/semi-mobile ranged indirect harassing fires.
@ Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 3:58 utc | 236
Extra double good. 🙂
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 3:58 utc | 236
Thank you. That was truly insightful.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 4:25 utc | 222
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 4:20 utc | 238
Extra double good. 🙂
Double Plus Good!!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 4:26 utc | 223
Once (sic) can tell, even prima facie: There are, to date, no NATO forces in the Black Sea. … Should NATO ever enter the Black Sea, it will be entering an extreme kill zone.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:50 utc | 234
I’d just point out that NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania all have navies, and naval bases on the Black Sea. NATO is already in the Black Sea. The question as to whose forces are stronger is another question entirely.
Posted by: Ross | Nov 14 2022 4:31 utc | 224
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 14 2022 3:37 utc | 227
You cheeky little troll. Suggesting VW went to PRC to move out of Russia. VW operates 120 production plants in 19 European countries. VW operates ONE plant at Kaluga, southwest of Moscow. They are moving it nowhere much less to China. They are selling it champ. VW ended its partnership with Russian automaker Gaz, which produced some VW models as a contract manufacturer at the small Nizhny Novgorod assembly plant east of Moscow. My pittance is on Vaz buying the Kaluga plant, as Russia plans to spend $526 million this year to boost domestic car parts production and replace imports as announced by Russian Federation Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov in June this year. VW will blow a considerable investment as they sunk about one billion rapidly depreciating Euros into Kaluga commencing in 2009. Once again thanks to US imperialism, German industry and industrial capital loses again. Meanwhile, Vaz or some other enterprising Russian company picks up a shiny, spanking new car plant for a trifle. As the Germans are desperate to sell. And VW will closing plants all over Europe as its energy costs become unsustainable. Nice try champ. No cigar.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 4:33 utc | 225
@128
“The Western media will be obligated to consider that sobering picture, and then compare it to the one that encapsulates the state of Russia.”
There is this truism that goes: “Law unto themselves.”
Another one goes like this: “Be realistic. Don’t expect miracles to happen.”
@176, thanks for the copy/paste from the saker about various kinds of “trolls”
Paid for trolls and other US PSYOP talking point pushers: they are the…
https://thesaker.is/a-few-week-end-musings-on-the-role-of-ignorant-useful-idiots-in-modern-warfare/
(do saker links post?)
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 4:35 utc | 226
@236 Paul McGregory – Thank you for your post. I was just reading on Wikipedia ( I know ) about the Battle od Korsun–Cherkassy and the deep operation technique of the Soviets. I realize that Korsun-Cherkassy is up the Dnieper from Kherson, but it seems relevant to the current Russian thinking. There was an interesting bit in the article about how it was studied by the US during Cold War One.
Here is the link. It’s from the National Archives.
Operations of Encircled Forces German Experiences in Russia
When winter comes in a month or so, the Western forces should have been able to brush up on the publication.
Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 14 2022 4:41 utc | 227
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:50 utc | 234
I also believed all the things you say but now I am not so sure.
You say there was no opportunity to take Odessa. Some would say there was. They would say Russia could have taken it early in the piece by missiles ,then with paratroops to take airport and then sent landing ships before ship – killing Neptunes missiles were brought in by Nato which then took out the Moskva.
You say there are no Nato forces in the area. Well there is Bulgaria, Turkey, Romania all of which have navies and now we know that Nato commandos were reinfiltrated into Ochakov and Nikolaev. In any case, the US is not party to the Montreaux convention and even if it was , would hardly care breaking it as it has done with other laws and treaties.
As mentioned Russia has not been seen to fly the flag in any big way since the Moskva was destroyed , and certainly not moved from Sevastopol since the seaborne drone attacks. Some would say that because of this , There is no naval presence of Russia to talk of in the Black Sea . Certainly could use them as missile platforms in port but unable to move anywhere . Snake Island was likely given up for the same reason and it certainly has lost Russia much influence and intelligence about Transnistria etc
Crimea is not so impregnable. Crete and Cyprus were both considered unsinkable aircraft carriers and both were taken by paratroops, and marine landings to different degrees. Admittedly, Cyprus had minimal Greek naval and airforce contribution as they were ordered to stand down by the treasonous “Colonels of 1967 “ , so could arguably have been held, but anyway. The Crimean Canal is now even more vulnerable to being cut by HIMARS, given that the Ukrainians can now come closer to the Right Bank of the Dnieper. If that is cut , then food will have to be brought in even more to feed the population as well as the army there.
No , I believe too much has been made of the Grain Deal. Russia hardly ever checks ships itself , and has outsourced it to Turkey and the Ukraine. We know that diesel , arms and terrorist bombs for Kerch Bridge came through the Grain Deal. Also , Russia still has not proven it can choke a grain deal, as noted by all the ships still leaving Odessa with grain without Russia’s permission. We should not believe Russia controls trade access to Odessa or anywhere in unliberated Ukraine until we see it enforce its supposed power to do so ie frequent boarding of suspect grain carriers, confiscation of ships and cargoes etc.
I also believed in escalation dominance in the Black Sea but I am more wary now and will await more evidence.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 4:44 utc | 228
Posted by: Ross | Nov 14 2022 4:31 utc | 241
I’d just point out that NATO members Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania all have navies, and naval bases on the Black Sea. NATO is already in the Black Sea.
As I understand it, these navies only become NATO once they shape up and start trying shove Russia around. To date, that has not happened in the Black Sea.
So these navies remain simply the individual, very passive, navies of their respective countries. That only changes once Article V (or similar) activates – and then to little effect.
The question as to whose forces are stronger is another question entirely.
Turkey is extremely unlikely to use it’s navy against Russian forces in the Black Sea, given the current economic linkages between Putin and Erdogan. Moreover, Russia has the power to close the Turkish straits by sinking at least one ship there, preventing further naval support from other NATO states.
As for whose forces are stronger, it boils down to how many Iskander missiles Russia has vs. Romanian (lol!), Turkish (meh) and Bulgarian (lol!).
It’s not even Navy vs. Navy. It’s Missile forces vs. Navy.
The Black Sea remains a kill zone for NATO ships.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 4:51 utc | 229
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 4:44 utc | 245
I also believed in escalation dominance in the Black Sea but I am more wary now and will await more evidence.
Doubt is surely understandable.
Doubt surely swings both ways.
Balance your doubts evenly …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 4:53 utc | 230
Posted by: lahire | Nov 14 2022 4:01 utc | 237
Agree with all you say , apart from that on Cyprus . Cyprus was the trial- event run by Nato to destroy allies, like it has just done in Germany- and it used the same plan to destroy Yugoslavia in the 1990s , by helping the Muslim extremists. Most common people now believe helping the Muslim rebels in Yugoslavia was a mistake ,and we are still reaping the blowback of that in jihadi terror all over the world and especially Europe.
Turkey is still a pariah state for what it did in Cyprus , but noone says anything because the US is afraid of losing the Turks to the Russians permanently. It is important to note that once Turkey and the US/ISR were having a lover’s quarrel, western authors of bigname publishing houses , mysteriously started to write books about the Ottoman massacres , and European governments uncharacteristically allowed their diplomatic archives to be opened showing all of Turkey’s dirty laundry ; geopolitics makes strange bedfellows.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 4:57 utc | 231
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 14 2022 3:37 utc | 227
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 4:33 utc | 242
You cheeky little troll. Suggesting VW went to PRC to move out of Russia.
Seems I’m not the only one who thinks Done Bacon is a troll. Where’s moron go bill to leap to the defense?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 5:00 utc | 232
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 102
Take a seat at the back of the bus, sweetie. You people aren’t in the drivers seat anymore.
Posted by: Drinky Crow | Nov 14 2022 5:03 utc | 233
Demron | Nov 14 2022 3:13 utc | 223
Thank you for your observations. Close to what I considered typing, but decided not to expend the effort.
Escobar: “…he can barely restrain his thoughts while others speak”.
Yep. I’ve noticed. And no further internet bandwidth wasted on him.
Lira-by-Name-and-Nature: “…(like Escobar)……guesswork ([plagiarism]) as analysis, to the causal listener, comes across as brilliant”.
Yep.
As duelling douches: …”amusing, when the two of them have appeared together, as you can observe they each recognize the other for what they both are.
…>>”Most uncomfortable to watch”. [yep]
Add in Martyanov and we have 3empty vessels, clanging loudly, signifying nothing…..
Now watch their respective encomiasts cry.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 5:07 utc | 234
Drinky Crow @ 250
That was a troll, not the real Jen
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 14 2022 5:14 utc | 235
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 3:40 utc | 228
‘Hi Mr. Bolton, (MrB?) nice to see you also lurk on these forums! Are you perhaps also accompanied by Mrs. Albright (in spirit at least) ?’
Not at all. Democracy, critical thinking and freedom need to be home-grown. Although it doesn’t hurt to get advice from the experts.
Posted by: MrB | Nov 14 2022 5:14 utc | 236
What I notice most of all is that every time Russia seems to take a step backwards in this conflict, most likely for strategic reasons unreadable to most of us, the MOA forum is overwhelmed by a wave of defeatism and premature victory cries from NATO supporters. To those who see the Russian army’s tactical shifts as signs of weakness, I would like to remind them that NATO and its constituent nations, especially the United States, have never demonstrated a great capacity to win the wars they have provoked, even against poorly militarised countries. In fact, it is a litany of failures when one looks at it. To give NATO any chance against a better armed nation is, in my humble opinion, like believing in the Tooth Fairy.
The most important event of the last few days is not Kherson, but the results of the mid-term elections. One would have hoped, in the case of a Republican victory, for a change of attitude towards the US commitment to constantly pouring oil on the fire in this conflict. But this is not the case. And that is bad news. The Democrats are confirmed in their folly and Ukraine will continue to be destroyed.
China for all its potential is still an unweildy giant much more at risk than Russia for eventual dismemberment.
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 102
That’s a damn bold prediction… for a 4000 year old country. So, according to you, US/NATO, which was unable to win against the Afghan Taliban and Syria, is about to defeat Russia and China… Remind me not to ask your opinion about the weather tomorrow.
The day the conflict is imported into the 350-year-old United States, we’ll see which country dismembers itself the fastest.
Posted by: xiao pignouf | Nov 14 2022 5:17 utc | 237
Posted by: MrB | Nov 14 2022 5:14 utc | 253
Not at all. Democracy, critical thinking and freedom need to be home-grown. Although it doesn’t hurt to get advice from the experts.
In which case I’d encourage you to tender your services to Mr. J Biden, Mr. Sunak, Mrs. Von Der Leyden, Herr Scholtz and Frau Baerbock and Monseur Macron in that order.
Perhaps by the time they’ve implemented your recommendations Mr. Putin will have no need of them …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 5:18 utc | 238
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 4:51 utc | 246
“Moreover, Russia has the power to close the Turkish straits by sinking at least one ship there, preventing further naval support from other NATO states.”
Very true , and we saw two trial – runs of that principle in action already; in the Suez and one in the Dardenelles/Bosphorus yesteryear.
We live in interesting times.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 5:34 utc | 239
The main countries showing definite lines of fissure today are Canada and USA
Russia broke out of Union in 1991 and thus saved itself from rule by Non-Russians as was increasingly the problem in USSR.
USA lacks internal logic with states on the West Coast being so adrift of Mainstream USA and dominating by exceedingly rich elites who own political power.
Russia has ‚rodina‘ which is under attack whereas U.S. has fought every war since 1865 outside Continental USA and avoided damage which no longer obtains
Europe is fractured and fissile with even Spain and Germany prone to breakup. The former GDR is a very different country from the Rhineland State headquartered in Bonn and Berlin is not the glue holding them together as Berlin is the source of all tragedy in German history.
Wait and see the cauldron is bubbling
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 5:45 utc | 240
xiao pignouf | Nov 14 2022 5:17 utc | 254
That’s a damn bold prediction… for a 4000 year old country.
You have got to be the dumbest imposter in the history of MoA…
Yan, Zhao, Han, Wei, Qi, Shu, Quin, Zhongshan, Shanghai International Settlement, Beijing Legation Quarter, Kulangsu International Settlement, Portuguese Macau, Austro-Hungarian concession of Tianjin, Belgian concession of Tianjin, Kwang-Chou-Wan, French Concessions of Shanghai, Shamian Island, Hankou, Tianjin and Yunnan-Fu, German Concessions of Kiautschou Bay, Hankou and Tianjin, Italian Concession of Tianjin, Russian Concessions of Dalian, Tianjin, Hankou, Harbin, Port Arthur and Liaodong, Hong Kong, Weihaiwei, Liugong Island, British Concessions of Tianjin, Hankou, Jiujiang, Shamian Island, Amoy, Dalian, Shanghai and Tengyue, American Concessions of Shanghai and Tianjin, Manchukuo and Taiwan
Posted by: Li Ziqi | Nov 14 2022 5:47 utc | 241
Posted by: Demron | Nov 14 2022 3:13 utc | 223
Your slander Escobar is a pretty poor effort. A continuous ad hominem which finishes with a breathless, bizarre body language claim. Escobar is an outstanding journalist and geopolitical analyst. On August 30, 2001, Escobar in his column in The Asia Times warned about the danger of Osama bin Laden. He was on the ground in Afghanistan. I suppose you consider this piece ‘fantasist’? Have you read it? He was about the only journalist in the world reporting on the Islamic terrorist networks before September 11 2001. He has been influenced by the French philosopher Paul Virilio centred on the themes of technology, communication, and speed. Escobar applies the theory of the Eurasian heartland, also called Pivot Area, of Sir Halford Mackinder who wrote in the early 20th century, as the key to world domination in an era of declining importance for traditionally invincible sea power. He is sometimes wrong but his central thesis, that of the decline of US imperialism and the rise of the Eurasian power of Russian Federation and Peoples Republic of China with the Stan’s, is incisive and a dynamic framework to analyse the contemporary geo-politics. Your sham and frankly pathetic slanderous hit job on Escobar really just confines you into the intellectual cellar dwellers of NATO trolling. Body language? Really???? LOL
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 5:50 utc | 242
Xiao Pignouf @ 254:
That comment @ 102 was posted by a troll pretending to be me.
I have never believed that China or Russia is at risk of dismemberment or break-up. I would suggest that any mention of China or Russia breaking up from supposed internal instability is a projection of desire on the troll’s part.
Posted by: Jen | Nov 14 2022 5:59 utc | 243
Below is a Xinhuanet posting about the meeting between Li from China and Albanese from Australia….any Aussie read between the lines of the meeting reported here and elsewhere?
PHNOM PENH, Nov. 13 (Xinhua) — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese here on Saturday on the sidelines of the leaders’ meetings on East Asia cooperation.
Albanese said that next month Australia and China will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, which were forged under a Labor administration led by then Prime Minister Gough Whitlam.
Noting that he has visited China several times, Albanese said his country is willing to strengthen high-level exchanges with China and jointly promote the healthy development of bilateral relations.
Li said that Chinese and Australian peoples enjoy traditional friendship, however, bilateral relations have gone through a difficult patch.
“Taking office as the prime minister of the new Labor government, you expressed Australia’s readiness to work with China to bring the bilateral relationship back on track,” Li said.
China is ready to meet Australia half way, and work with Australia to seize the opportunity of the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations to promote sustained, sound and steady growth of China-Australia relations, Li said.
My only note is that mostly Xinhuanet reports China’s position first and then visiting or whatever side but not this time…Hmmmm
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 14 2022 6:06 utc | 244
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 3:03 utc | 219
Without taking Odessa, Nikolayev and Ochakov ,Russia has effectively conceded that the Black Sea is a Nato lake. Someone here has said that no Russian naval ship has exited Sevastopol harbour since the Nato seaborne drone attacks.
————————-
“Without taking Odessa, Nikolayev and Ochakov ,Russia has effectively conceded that the Black Sea is a Nato lake. ”
You please enlighten me how NATO can achieve the goal of turning the Black Sea into a NATO lake.
It’s beyond a joke!
识途老马， 不要信口开河。
Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 14 2022 6:09 utc | 245
OOPS!
my comment #261 is suppose to be on the Weekly Open Thread…sorry
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 14 2022 6:09 utc | 246
Outraged @207–
The corruption is astounding. The Empire acts like it’s virile but the reality is it has a terminal case of ED. The RoW is finding that out and no mercy shall be shown.
Odnamrod Meditation #3
The Russian leadership labor like coal miners.
They are always in motion, speaking little.
Yet they achieve so much with their silence.
They generate trade, agreements, projects daily.
Their speech is simple, direct and information rich.
They make no threats but politely warn against aggression.
They place no ultimatums on the weak but bargain with all.
Their American and British counterparts are the opposite:
Lazing drunkenly about at parties making pronstars of themselves.
They do nothing but talk and their speech is convoluted.
Nothing much can be determined from their words.
They conclude no trade deals, only trade embargoes.
They conclude no agreements, only agreements to invade.
Their every act of ‘diplomacy’ is an ultimatum to the weak.
Their practice of economics consists in seizing funds.
They appear on stage for a while only to disappear
and be replaced by identical actors in different skins …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 6:14 utc | 248
Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 14 2022 6:09 utc | 262
Asked and answered , in both the post you refer to and subsequent to that , so please ask me to clarify once you have digested those , and told me why you disagree with what I said.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 6:23 utc | 249
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 5:07 utc | 251
As a (paid?) calumniator you will appreciate my response to your incoherent and illiterate ad hominem against the distinguished journalist Pepe Escobar. Sheer arse gravy. Champ, if you are going to try to write a hit job on an outstanding journalist at least try. ‘Close to what I considered typing, but decided not to expend the effort.’ Not to expend the effort ??? I assume you are subjecting us here to your fatuousness for a remuneration or stipend from the Kiev troll regiment. It is some poor working stiffs taxes you are trousering. It might even be mine. My own sycophantic subaltern Australian government has tipped one billion rapidly depreciating Australian dollars into the Kiev corruption dunny. Trolling is entertainingly tolerable. Lazy trolling is just unacceptable. I want some value for my money if you don’t mind champ.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 6:26 utc | 250
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the #SMO for 12-13 Nov 2022⚡️
#Kursk & #Belgorod Regions:
▪️ On Saturday, Ukrainian militants dropped several explosive devices from a copter on the Glushkovskaya power station in #Kursk region, leaving the village without electricity. The power supply was later restored.
▪️ Enemy militants also shelled the village of #Krasnooktyabrsky in the Glushkov district.
▪️ The AFU launched several strikes on the town of #Shebekino in the #Belgorod region, damaging several civilian infrastructure facilities.
#Northukrainian Direction (MAP):
▪️ The AFU concentrated at least 30 combat vehicles with personnel in #Galaganovka and #Semenovka in #Chernigov region on the border with Russia.
▪️ Russian artillery engaged targets in #Yunakovka, #Khotyn, #Shalygino, #Slavgorod and #Romashkino in #Sumy region.
▪️ In #Kharkov region, the Russian forces conducted several strikes against AFU targets in #Kharkov and #Dergachi and against several border settlements.
#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector, several consolidated enemy tactical groups twice attempted to consolidate near #Novoselovskoye, but came under heavy artillery fire and retreated to their initial positions with losses.
▪️ In the #Svatovo sector, the AFU simultaneously attacked Russian positions in the direction of #Stelmakhovka, #Makeyevka and #Chervonopopovka.
Thanks to the timely work of Russian artillery and aviation, the enemy could not achieve any successes on this line either.
▪️ In the #Lyman sector, the Ukrainian army command is moving equipment and personnel for the next offensive on #Kremennaya.
#Soledar Direction (MAP):
▪️ In the #Bakhmut area, units of the Wagner PMC are advancing deep into #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk) on the southeastern outskirts of the city. This is opposed by fighters of the AFU’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade, who are building more fortifications in the path of the Russian offensive.
▪️ Units of the AFU’s 24th Mechanized Brigade have arrived in the vicinity of #Pokrovsk. The units will be moved to #Soledar after being trained and re-equipped.
▪️ West of #Lysychansk, Russian forces supported by the LPR People’s Militia are fighting in #Belogorovka. Some enemy units of the 54th Mechanized Brigade and 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade have withdrawn to reserve positions in anticipation of support.
#Lugansk People’s Republic:
▪️ In #Lugansk and #Alchevsk, air defence worked late in the evening. Ukrainian militants also shelled #Stakhanov, Nizhnyaya Duvanka, #Rubizhnoye, #Melovatka and #Sabovka.
#Donetsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ Fighters of the Separate Sparta Batallion and the 1st Slavyansk Brigade, supported by the 238th Artillery Brigade, continue the clearing of the vicinity of #Opytnoye.
▪️ At the same time, Russian forces in #Vodyanoye, #Pervomayskoye and the vicinity of #Nevelskoye are gradually pushing the AFU out of the settlements.
#Southdonetsk Direction (MAP):
▪️ On the northern outskirts of #Pavlovka, the brigades of the Pacific Fleet Marine Corps and the DPR OBTF continued their clearing operations.
▪️ Ukrainian formations, for their part, are firing from heights near #Ugledar at Russian troops advancing northwards.
#Zaporozhye Direction (MAP):
▪️ The enemy command saturates the #Zaporozhye region it controls with personnel, military equipment and artillery.
▪️ After the Russian forces withdraw from the right bank of the #Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, the AFU could try to capture #Melitopol and reach #Berdyansk to encircle the Russian grouping on the left bank of the river.
This would also allow the enemy to approach #Crimea and strike at the flank of units in the DPR.
#Kherson Direction on Southern Front (MAP):
▪️ AFU units continued to occupy positions on the right bank of the #Dnipro River and around #Kherson. Foreign journalists and top AFU officers arrived in the city.
#Odessa Region:
▪️ Russian troops attacked AFU positions in the resort of Chaika in #Chernomorsk with a Geran-2 drones.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20193
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 6:41 utc | 251
“Now watch their respective encomiasts cry.”
Prediction by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 5:07 utc | 251
“Lazy trolling is just unacceptable. I want some value for my money if you don’t mind champ.”
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 6:26 utc | 267
Mate. What’s truly lazy is the trope “everyone I don’t agree with is a nasty puteen puppet.
I know Escobar was in Afghanistan in 2000/ early 2001. He’s written some wonderful geo/politico travelblogs.
What he’s offering now in the SMO era is shite.
And his arrogance and egoism when a “guest” on a youtoob is execrable.
Your tears are wasted on me.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 6:41 utc | 252
@Pat Roberts | Nov 14 2022 2:51 utc | 216
There will be a limited nuclear exchange now, its baked into the cake. Hopefully it remains confined to the Baltic region.
WTH? Is the whole family of Liz Truss posting here?
What is it with some people being complete ignoramuses wrt. geography and raving maniacs on military matters?
Tell me why e.g. Latvia should be nuked because of the withdrawal from Kherson, please?
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 6:45 utc | 253
The lynching of people accused of being Russian “collaborators” had begun in Kherson
🇬🇧🇺🇦🇷🇺 The Daily Mail calmly publishes a picture of the lynching of “collaborators” in Kherson. Without trial and investigation, apparently, the civilised western world completely supports the activities of the Ukrainian Nazis.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20202
IMPORTANT: THIS CHANNEL MUST BE REPORTED:
https://t.me/Kherson_kolaborant
It is a channel (one of many) that is now dedicated to pointing to the alleged “collaborators” in Kherson so that the Ukrainian army can take revenge on them. There are no soldiers on that list. They are civilians whose only crime was to stay in the city when Russia came. Please, help report these scumbags.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20169
🇺🇦 BULLIES-R-US: Ukrainian army begins harassing residents of Kherson, West Russia accused of COLLABORATING with the Russian army, AND they expect you to believe they are the GOOD guys, taunting their own people.
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/8495
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 6:53 utc | 254
🇺🇦⚡Kiev has revoked work permits from at least six journalists due to reports from Kherson, Ukrainian media.
Among them are CNN and SkyNews correspondents.
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 6:55 utc | 255
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 6:23 utc | 266
Asked and answered , in both the post you refer to and subsequent to that , so please ask me to clarify once you have digested those , and told me why you disagree with what I said.
—————-
You talked about “what”, but you didn’t spit out “how”.
Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 14 2022 7:01 utc | 256
@Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 5:50 utc | 259
On August 30, 2001, Escobar in his column in The Asia Times warned about the danger of Osama bin Laden. He was on the ground in Afghanistan. I suppose you consider this piece ‘fantasist’? Have you read it? He was about the only journalist in the world reporting on the Islamic terrorist networks before September 11 2001.
Did he really? I didn’t know that. That would make me much more critical of his writings.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 7:02 utc | 257
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 6:53 utc | 271
Clearly Signatories to these Conventions have collective amnesia !
https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/geneva-convention-relative-protection-civilian-persons-time-war
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 7:19 utc | 259
the Nato seaborne drone attacks.
Only states inside NATO bordering Black Sea are Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey……….and there is zero possibility of Turkey being quite so reckless – so Romania and Bulgaria look to be in trouble.
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 7:21 utc | 260
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 14 2022 3:37 utc | 227
VW needs to fire 50,000 in Germany to match Toyota productivity levels. NO VW plant can match Skoda. VW is overstaffed and overly costly with highest labour rates in world thanks to IG Metall which is currently on strike.
VW like BMW and Daimler lived off fat profits in UK pre-BreXit – and accounted for 50% UK trade deficit.
VW is an also-ran producer using cheap parts to make expensive over-priced cars of dubious reliability.
Daimler’s largest shareholders are Chinese.
BMW depends on Chinese market.
Russia is better suited to SUV products than status symbols like German cars unserviceable outside Moscow or St Petersburg. Even in USA where very few states actually certify mechanics it is hit and miss on servicing luxury cars from Germany or UK.
China also has more warm water coast line than Russia to facilitate exports to Europe and USA. Some Volvo models are only made in China just as BMW and Daimler top-line SUVs come from USA. Anyway EVs can only be built in China since CATL has the battery tech – auto production has no future in Europe and PwC just published a report showing g EU as NET Auto Importer within 5 years
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 7:31 utc | 261
At the risk of being booted off this esteemed site i plead cultural relevance with B in the spirit of the great Brecht and that this is after all a whisky bar and offer a modest paean to the Grave of the Unknown Troll.
THE GRAVE OF UNKOWN TROLL
There’s a graveyard near the White House
Where the Unknown Troll lies,
And the flowers there are sprinkled
With the tears from mother’s eyes.
I stood there not so long ago
With roses for the brave,
And suddenly I heard a voice
Speak from out the grave:
“I am the Unknown Troll,
The spirit voice began
“And I think I have the right
To ask some questions troll to man/woman/bi/trans.
“Are my oligarchs taken care of?
Was their victory so sweet?
Is that big reward you offered
Now selling crypto on the beat?
“Did they really win the fascism
They battled to achieve.
Do you still respect the neo-liberal mantra
Above that empty sleeve?
“Does a gold star on You Tube
Now mean anything at all?
“And that Kiev comedian who sang
Hello, Central, give me the money now.
Can they replace his siren call
With a march to Moscow after all?
“I wonder if the profiteers
Have satisfied their greed?
I wonder if a troll’s mother
Ever is in need?
“I wonder if the neo-cons, who planned it all
Are really satisfied?
They played their game of LNG stocks
As my best prose died.
“I am the Unknown Troll
And maybe I was banned in vain,
But if I were online and the oligarchs called,
I’d do it all over again.
Paul McGrory
Wollongong
Australia
14 November 2022
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 7:31 utc | 262
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 7:31 utc | 279
Bravo! Moar! Moaaaaar!
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 7:39 utc | 263
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Nov 14 2022 7:31 utc | 278
I wouldn’t be surprised if VW, BMW and Mercedes simply move their assets and operations to China, neighboring countries and Russia. It is simply impossible to operate with a belligerent EU commission trying to micromanage the EU economy according to their fantasy climate goals, which means destruction of supply chains. Also, China has the influence and willingness to provide minerals, EU does not.
They can re-enter and conquer EU markets again after a while, until the EU commission goes berserk in mercantile protection in benefit of US companies (which they might). EU is a goner in every way you can imagine.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 7:39 utc | 264
Photo of ‘Ukrainian’ Soldier with British and US flag patches on his uniform ?
https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/ukraine-die-lage-am-morgen-kiew-meldet-rund-180-weitere-befreite-orte-lawrow-zu-g20-gipfel-eingetroffen/28144208.html
Posted by: Exile | Nov 14 2022 7:41 utc | 265
‼️🇬🇧🔞The Pavlovka area is littered with the corpses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: OBTF “Kaskad” and marines of the Pacific Fleet cleared 18 enemy strongholds 🔞 There were about 40 militants at each strongpoint, another 3 companies defended Pavlovka itself, enemy losses are approaching a thousand killed and taken in captivity. Soldiers of the OBTF “Kaskad” (Internal Troops and Special Forces of the Ministry of State Security of the DPR), together with marines from Kamchatka and Primorye, are advancing on Ugledar. t.me/RVvoenkor
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 7:56 utc | 266
Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 6:45 utc | 270
The Baltics is a region, dipshit. It is defined by a sea. I suppose it would be too much for you to know anything about it since Norway isn’t part of it. It is the area where Russia and the West meet, where NATO believes it can project power and where Russia is most vulnerable. Do the math.
Posted by: Pat Roberts | Nov 14 2022 7:58 utc | 267
Paul McGrory | Nov 14 2022 5:50 utc | 259
Relax honey, I’m not attacking your girlfriend. He’s a fine novelist. See a psychologist for your problem.
Posted by: Demron | Nov 14 2022 8:06 utc | 268
The new bullshit copium: Trying to take Nicolaev and Odessa was never possible. Mercouris was babbling that today and I see it’s shown up here.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 14 2022 8:19 utc | 269
Posted by: MrB | Nov 14 2022 3:12 utc | 222
Here we have another one.
Easy detection of Western propaganda:
Replaces Russian leadership with “Putin”. Using phrases as “Putin’s war” or “Putin’s choice” etc. This is in the function of lingustic programming where the thought construct of “the enemy” is made in such a way that it is a person. If “the enemy” was the whole russian populace, then the recepient of the programmed message may start asking why? What makes russians our enemies? We saw this with Milosevic, Gaddafy, Saddam, Asad, Trump etc.
It however is old and tired method. Many people are detecting it, so now we have cancel culture where people that have an issue with such constructs are becoming the target themselves.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 14 2022 8:28 utc | 270
The Situation Post-Kherson by Grigori, Slavyangrad
It is time to move on from any disappointment you had concerning the Kherson withdrawal (which I explained here). Together, let us assess the situation going forward.
The East Bank of the Dnieper
Now that NATO have the west bank, it is unlikely they will freeze the conflict. Instead, expect them to begin terrorising the cities and towns on the east bank with artillery and sabotage units (like we already see on the Kinburn Peninsula and at Energodar). Do not be surprised to see more civilian evacuations and possibly even a No-Man’s Land of sorts created on our side of the river. Pressure on Energodar will increase but will hopefully be countered with our newly available resources.
The Kinburn spit (the tip of the peninsula) is a matter for separate discussion. Like the Zmeiny (Snake) island, it has been the land of the damned for some time. Like Snake island, whoever controls the Kinburn spit does so mostly on paper. This has always been the case, with only small Russian patrol units regularly walking the perimetre—as larger groupings face inevitable targeting by NATO artillery. The same is true for NATO, as they cannot do anything more than send a few guys to plant a quick flag. Yes, planting a flag on the sandy delta of the Dnieper is only Tik-Tok warfare, but expect NATO to try to accomplish this veritable feat at the first opportunity they get.
Zaporozhye
The majority of the 30,000 Kherson garrison is now free to link up with, among others, the mobilised forces finishing their training in Melitopol. The advantage here is that we do not have our backs against a bridge and logistics are much more favourable. The early information I have is that NATO have now relocated the 98th Azov Battalion from the Kherson line to Zaporozhye; suggesting that this is indeed the next area to watch. I will likely do a later post specifically on NATO redeployments post-Kherson.
Military logistics at Melitopol are fed both from Crimea—along the rail and the highway being freshly repaved and widened—and from mainland Russia, through Mariupol and southern DPR, along the major automobile transit paths that run through the area and originate in Krasnodar and Rostov Oblasts. It is the Crimean path that is most susceptible to NATO strikes, and we are likely to see Russia reorient its communications network to run east to west.
This latter possibility may well have been the reason for the renewed push at Pavlovka and Ugledar. It is only by securing this area that Russia can ensure the safety of the rail traffic from Donetsk to Mariupol, which is vital to reliable rail supplies to Melitopol and Berdyansk if and when the route through Crimea is imperilled.
Crimea
By severing the Antonovsky Bridge, we have fortified Crimea against any assault coming from the western side of The Ukraine. The idea that Kherson was the gateway to Crimea ended entirely with the bridge. To even have a shot at Crimea, NATO now needs to come down from Zaporozhye and first take Melitopol. As I mentioned above, Melitopol is nowhere near the logistical nightmare that Kherson was, with the ability to be easily supplied from both Crimea, Berdyansk, and down the east-west route from Krasnodar and Rostov Oblasts, eventually even by rail—replacing entirely the Crimean path.
Combine all of this with my previous post about the Kherson withdrawal, and it becomes very clear that perhaps Surovikin and those on the frontlines know a thing or two more than we do about what Russia needs to win this war.
As I have said many times, it is not the mistakes that matter, but rather the lessons we take from them, and then what we do to improve.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20208
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 8:37 utc | 271
Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 16:47 utc | 34
An important is made here about the Afhghan experience, which has bern underplayed before. In the cf ear, NATO put a lot of effort into “stay behind” forces in Europe, and used irregular forces to great effect. There are a lot of barflies talking about invading Ukraine as a whole. From the perspective of ending the formal war I can understand this, but I am confident NATO will have planned for it and it would be farily easy to resupply guerilla groups from over the Polish border. I think Russia is wise to be cautious about occupying larger areas which are not strongly pro-Russian. I also think occupying the whole country would go beyond the original war trigger, and risk losing some moral high ground in the global south. Its a delicate balance.
Posted by: Pete Jones | Nov 14 2022 8:39 utc | 272
@ Richard Steven Hack | Nov 14 2022 8:19 utc | 286
Trying to take Nicolaev and Odessa was never possible. Mercouris was babbling that today and I see it’s shown up here.
Ok, it is true that from the position RF had, the taking or surrounding those cities was impossible or very difficult.
Not from the East and not from the sea direct assault.
The only possible way to take those areas and surround Odessa would be from the North.
If you look on the map the door to Odessa from the East is the settlement of New Odessa further north where the river is narrow enough.
Mind you, RF forces were not that far away from that point and had Mykolaiv semi encircled from the East.
RF should have done that in the first days of the ‘SMO’ while everyone was looking towards Kyev and 40 miles RF military column.
Question is will they ever take those cities and cut Ukraine off the Black Sea?
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 14 2022 8:42 utc | 273
@Pat Roberts | Nov 14 2022 7:58 utc | 284
The Baltics is a region, dipshit.
You need expletives to tell me what I told you? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_region
Why do you think it is a good idea to use nucular weapons in the Baltic region, just because Russia did a tactical withdrawal from Kherson region, which isn’t in the Baltic regiaon at all?
Where are you from? Maybe nuclear weapons could be put to better use there?
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 14 2022 8:42 utc | 274
To laugh, or cry?
While I am happy about the liberation of Kherson, wearing the SS Dirlewanger Brigade patch is not a good look.
This was arguably one of the most horrific SS units of the war, made up of convicted murderers, rapists and pedophiles and committed innumerable brutal war crimes.
—
Man I support and respect the UA soldiers, but god damn please do not wear SS unit patches on your clothes… worse this is the SS 36th Dirlewanger…
—
Another example of a Ukrainan soldier wearing the same Dirlewanger patch. The Ukrainian military should crack down on this. It benefits no one except fueling the Russian narrative.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1591244936032423936
So not really fussed about what their real moral values are, or what their units Code is, nor who they identify with as a ‘group’ mindset, nor what they really think, or who they admire ….. to your typical moron in the world what is really important is that you don’t wear that insignia on your uniform – because it’s not a good look!
Like wow …. this is cognitive dissonance in action coupled with the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
I saw someone responds to this info saying: “Ukraine Is a Nazi nation my fucking arse….”
Talk about being so deluded propagandized and totally missing the point.
Hey idiots .. maybe the Russian narrative is actually true – did ya ever think of that?
And so out of this the world will become enlightened and multi-polar listening to Putin’s Sermons on the Mount and the US Govt and all the Americans will see the error of their ways to happily deconstruct their global empire and then willingly relinquish all their entrenched privileges along with their cultures’ idiocy and narcissism.
Yeah right .. I got a bridge for sale…
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 8:46 utc | 275
Mercouris was babbling that today and I see it’s shown up here.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 14 2022 8:19 utc | 286
Rumour and gossip used to be called the Evil Tongue for a reason.
Now it’s celebrated.
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 8:51 utc | 276
I don’t always give notzie salutes when I liberate cities…
But when I do, I expect western msm to just televise without censure….
https://twitter.com/ImDorianBae/status/1591707977563918336
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 8:52 utc | 277
Many people are detecting it, so now we have cancel culture where people that have an issue with such constructs are becoming the target themselves.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 14 2022 8:28 utc | 287
That’s very woolly mystical thinking. I’ve been calling Putin Putin for over 2 decades. I’m not going to stop doing it now just because of other people’s unbridled paranoia and vivid imaginations seeing 5th columnists under every rock.
I am not the only one who will address Putin by his name Putin either. But if anyone wants to conclude therefore I or they must be western propaganda plants, hey, have at it. I don’t care.
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 14 2022 9:00 utc | 278
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 20:08 utc | 106
Thanks Jen, I thought it was a little odd given your usual responses. I felt you might be overemphasizing the importance of the Kherson withdraw.
Posted by: bluedotterel | Nov 14 2022 9:07 utc | 279
Yes but you dont use “Putin’s war” or personify the Russian state and ideology with him alone.
There is a subtle but important difference.
Also, about the Nazi insignia and the West’s reluctance to face it. They need extremists to fight these wars, be it religious zealots as in ISIS or rightwing nutters as in Ukraine. They also accept them as a necessary evil in order to stop “Putin’s invasion”. But actually it is a burden as time goes by and at a given moment the imagery starts to be demoralising. Like those lynched persons in Kherson this morning.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 14 2022 9:07 utc | 280
Paul McGrory @ 279
GRAVE OF UNKOWN TROLL
That was great and much needed! It neutered the trolling certainly since the Kherson withdrawal, though I fear in the long term poetry won’t sterilize like sunlight, or Clorox. They’ll be back.
I know it’s poetic license but do trolls have mothers? Maybe they do as much as turtles who lay eggs in a pit and are never seen again, but I was told trolls spring up spontaneous like toadstools from cow patties and horse dung.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 14 2022 9:12 utc | 281
🇮🇩🇷🇺Maria Zakharova denies reports of Sergey Lavrov’s hospitalization in Bali
“Sergey Viktorovich and I are reading a tape here in Indonesia and we don’t believe our eyes: it turns out he is hospitalized This is, of course, the aerobatics of fakes. Well,wait,a world exclusive”
https://t.me/azmilitary11/28382
Posted by: Down South | Nov 14 2022 9:21 utc | 282
Possibly a metaphor for the Kherson retreat ???
https://twitter.com/TheFigen_/status/1591488352498360324
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 9:28 utc | 283
Paul McGrory #279
Well done brother. Next time I roll through the ‘gong I will shout you a virtual beer.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 14 2022 9:30 utc | 284
I consider this to be extremely urgent and disconcerting news, from G. Doctorow’s site, via a colleague in the US, Prof Francis A. Boyle at U of Illinois.
“We are going to war against Russia”
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/11/13/more-bad-news/
More Bad News
from Boyle: “The story below is a pure cover story by the Pentagon. You do not need a 3 Star General and a Staff of 300 to keep tabs on U.S. Weapons in Ukraine. This is a War Command to wage war against Russia. The last time I dealt personally with a 3 Star General was when I lectured at West Point on “Nuclear Deterrence” in their Senior Conference on that subject in front of, among others, the 3 Star General in Charge of War Operations at the Pentagon. The Pentagon puts a 3 Stars General in Charge of War Operations — not Inventory. And you do not need a Headquarters Staff of 300 to do an Audit. It’s a War Headquarters Staff. We are going to war against Russia unless the American People can figure out some way to stop it!
STUTTGART, Germany — A three-star general will lead a new Army headquarters in Germany that will include about 300 U.S. service members responsible for coordinating security assistance for Ukraine, a senior U.S. military official said this week.”
Posted by: michaelj72 | Nov 14 2022 9:52 utc | 285
It’s so over.
First Minsk, then Kiev and now Crimea?
What is Stalin doing?
Why did he move vital industries and army groups so far back? Defeatist. Might as well give up Moscow too.
So sick of all the cope from the pro-Soviet 🇨🇳 side. We lost. Nazis defeated us. Accept it.
https://twitter.com/Jordanpkjj/status/1591769470032580608
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 10:17 utc | 286
So Zelensky was paraded around Kherson. Official Russian territory.
Russian artillery was a mere 10 km away.
He wasn’t touched, and neither was the rather large grouping of Ukronazi military that was surrounding him.
Humiliation after humiliation…
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 14 2022 10:30 utc | 287
I’m hoping to find a complete list of all the various statements made by retired US officials warning against US policy in Ukraine in the years before the war. I remember those statements being made for years by a range of actors – retired diplomats, CIA directors, military figures, academics etc. Does anybody know where such a list might be conveniently available?
Posted by: Barry | Nov 14 2022 10:31 utc | 288
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 14 2022 10:30 utc | 304
Eh, it would be very counter productive. Zelensky is showing visible drug abuse and withdrawal symptoms in pretty much all interviews. People in west (other than NAFO trolls) are getting tired of him. Nato will probably blame him away with a Hollywood backstory and blame Russia anyway pretty soon.
That, and it’s also against diplomatic rules and would open a pandoras box.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 10:37 utc | 289
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 10:37 utc | 306
“blame him away” meant “blow him away”
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 10:39 utc | 290
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 4:44 utc | 245
“before ship killing Neptunes missiles were brought in by Nato which then took out the Moskva.”
Those missiles were in Ukraine before the SMO started. The Neptune is Ukrainian made, based off an older Soviet variant. NATO probably assisted with the guidance systems around 2020.
Trying to take Odessa early on would have been a calamity for Russia.
In the event of war with NATO, nobody will have a surface fleet on the Black Sea for long. Russian submarines and small fast boats will be left.
Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 14 2022 10:42 utc | 291
Talks in Ankara. Not long now and US will be diverting the arms flow to Taiwan. Package of sanctions being put together now. Green t-shirt has no idea he is being Afghanistaned.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/13/taiwan-china-invasion-military-aid/
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2022 10:57 utc | 292
That, and it’s also against diplomatic rules and would open a pandoras box.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 14 2022 10:37 utc | 306
What diplomatic rules?
When the Chechens, funded, supplied and instigated by the US, rebelled and broke off Russia, then went on a terrorist rampage in the surrounding regions, they were declared terrorists by Moscow, then hunted for years and eventually exterminated.
This is no different. We have a quite literal genealogical reincarnation of the Nazis (NATO, which incorporated a lot of Nazi high command in its ranks from the start, plus the OUN and UPA) on a genocidal mission against Russia. And Putin thinks this is a diplomatic game?
The problem with the dam should never have arisen in the first place, and the problem with the shelling of civilians should have been solved the same way.
The first time it is shelled, what you do is you post a list of targets that will be destroyed in Kiev, Lvov, etc. for every subsequent shell that gets sent towards it or at civilians in Donbass, Kherson etc..
The list would include various central and regional governmental buildings for the first dozen or so entries, then it starts mixing them with high ranking officials, including Zelensky.
And every time they do another such terrorist act, a missile takes out the next target on the list, eventually reaching to the high command.
If they insist on killing civilians and destroying infrastructure, the choice is theirs.
But given that Russia can hit anything it wants in Ukraine, at any moment (and not just in Ukraine, anything in Europe), one would think that after the message is sent a couple of times in the form of Iskanders and Kalibrs, they will get it.
That way you don’t look like a pathetic little weakling the way you do now, and you also have explained to the world why you are forced to do it.
“Diplomatic protocol” doesn’t really mean much here.
If the fear is that if they take out Zelensky, they will be targeted themselves and won’t be able to travel around the world, well, guess what? That is already the case.
Putin hasn’t left the central Eurasian airspace at all since the war started, and just bailed out of the G20. Quite possibly because it was decided that the risk wasn’t worth it – given what has been done so far in terms of direct attacks on Russia, it wasn’t at all out of the question that some MANPAD (or even something more substantial) would have taken out his plane. Lavrov is more expendable and less likely to be targeted, so we went instead.
With the current retreating and compromising they will keep retreating and compromising all the way to Magadan…
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 14 2022 10:58 utc | 293
Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 14 2022 10:42 utc | 308
I thought the “Neptunes “ are Norwegian-made and brought in after the SMO, but fair enough, I don’t doubt that the Ukrainians had Ex – Soviet ship -killers either. My focus was on the fact that there was talk of Nato commandos doing the Anti- ship killing. There are still some doubts about what killed the Moskva , especially as it was at the extreme range of a Neptune anyway so it may have been a commando attack or limpet- mine, but anyway.
Yes ,I agree with you about all naval shipping being dead in the event of an all-out war against Nato. Why only Russians Subs? Why couldn’t any “Non-Black Sea littoral “ Nato member subs be in the Black Sea already? Certainly ,Romanian, Turkish and Bulgarian ones will be there even now, as they are allowed.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 14 2022 11:06 utc | 294
[234] “Completely False. Once can tell, even prima facie: There are, to date,no NATO forces in the Black Sea.”
There are “NATO” forces on the Black Sea. A limited amount of forces for sure, as they are Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish. There are other NATO forces above the Black Sea.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 14 2022 11:08 utc | 295
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 14 2022 8:42 utc | 290
Nothing is “impossible or difficult” (not to mention those are two very different things) – it depends on how you do it.
Granted, Russia did not have the forces to do it last March. I didn’t say they did. What I’m saying is that once they produce the forces, yes, they can take them. Will it be easier doing it another way than plowing straight across to Nicolaev and then Odessa?? I don’t know, and I don’t care.
The point is that pulling this BS out now – when everyone has been clamoring for months and assuming that Russia would take Odessa eventually, and now they allege Russia can’t in hind-sight, is pure copium. That should be blindingly obvious to everyone who hears this crap.
Next we’ll hear talk that, “Hey, maybe Russia shouldn’t take Odessa, maybe they should stop at the Dnieper” – which is what 90% of these people have been hoping for all along – because in reality, 90% of these people do not want Russia to defeat Ukraine completely. Why? Because it scares them.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 14 2022 11:08 utc | 296
Posted by: michaelj72 | Nov 14 2022 9:52 utc | 302
“We are going to war against Russia”
That bus left the station months ago.
This is not even a proxy war anymore.
This is full on NATO on Russia WWIII.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 11:10 utc | 297
psychohistorian | Nov 14 2022 6:06 utc | 261
The words are meaningless. When the time comes our politicians will do whatever the US tells them to do.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2022 11:11 utc | 298
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 14 2022 10:30 utc | 304
Hmm. 304 … Appropriate.
He wasn’t touched, and neither was
Of course not, or else who would Russians have in the dock when the war crimes trials begin ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 14 2022 11:15 utc | 299
Tbx | Nov 14 2022 10:58 utc | 310
Do some more research on Chechnya. Chechnya gaines defacto independence around 93, 94. 95 the CIA stated moving extremists from Afghanistan to Chechnya along with Wahhabi clerics. Terrorist bombings kicked off in 99. When Yeltsin appointed Putin PM, Putin went and met Kadyrov senior as leader of the traditional Chechen’s. Chechnya and the Russian federation made and allegiance to destroy the CIA run terrorists, both the imported ones and the Chechen’s that converted to Wahhabism.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 14 2022 11:18 utc | 300