But Russia faces a bleak future, as bleak as Europe’s. Putin rolled the dice and they did not land as expected.
Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:16 utc | 90

Silly talk. Two Russian friends went back home for extended visits this summer/fall, one to Rostov with a side trip to Crimea and another to Sochi. They said everything was normal, except many more military overflights.
It seems the dice did not land as you expected.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 13 2022 20:18 utc | 103

@ Bruce Wilkinson | Nov 13 2022 18:12 utc | 68
bruce – you might be a little bit idealistic, but i still appreciate your sharing your perspective here.. well done.. thanks!
@ Jen | Nov 13 2022 18:41 utc | 76
thanks jen… you are calling it as you see it and i appreciate all you have to say.. i can’t say i see it the same, but i respect you as a poster here and have to consider it all in a wider context.. i still believe that while the west continues to excel on the propaganda and in the image projecting dept, i am no where near as certain as you appear to be in where we are here and where all this is headed… wars are ugly.. things can change…most of us here know this is a war between the usa led nato wanting to take russia down.. they will try to do it any way they can… china must see this too and know they are next.. things continue to heat up as i see it.. no one wants war, but hitting nordstream – if i was to point to one event – clearly makes the statement that the usa/uk nato group are coming after russia.. we all knew this much before with all the sanctions, and the dynamic in syria also gave us a clear heads up… but while the usa’s gloves are off for the most part – russia hasn’t hit back – yet.. and that is the key word – yet.. folks are pissed with russia as they want it to fight back, but russian leadership is looking at this from a different angle then the western pundits want them to be looking…
i remain cautious in making predictions on where this is headed, but i have mostly been seeing it as ww3 in the making.. i wish i didn’t see it this way, but it seems to me as convincing a pr campaign the west has spun here, we are in the early innings and if things don’t calm down soon – things are going to be a lot more painful moving forward.. and of course i do see the west – usa in particular on a descending pathway.. just how long things can continue the way they are on the planet – i am not convinced they can and for an answer – we need to see some radical and frightening departure from business as usual model we’ve been given the past 50 or more years..
thanks again you 2.. as bevin has noted – the quality of the thread is good and people are speaking out more today – maybe the troll army takes sundays off? i doubt it, lol…

Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 20:21 utc | 105

A little trip down memory lane, a little slice through history:
The First and Second Chechen Wars, how the news reported it, how the propaganda and spin hasn’t changed in more than two decades.
It’s hard to say History repeats itself but it’s certainly assembled from the same set LEGO blocks (by those who write about it):
– 1st Chechen War, Retreat from Grozny:

BY CAREY GOLDBERG AND SONNI EFRON JAN. 3, 1995 12 AM PT TIMES STAFF WRITERS
Russians Suffer ‘Crushing’ Loss in Rout by Chechens : Caucasus:
Rebels control center of capital after fierce fighting sends government soldiers into retreat. Kremlin leaders downplay defeat, vow to take city by week’s end.
ARGUN, Russia — Triumphant rebels swaggered through central Grozny on Monday, in clear control of the heart of the Chechen capital after sending the Russian army into humiliating retreat. On Freedom Square in front of the presidential palace, several burned-out armored personnel carriers testified to the Russian defeat. The charred corpses of Russian soldiers lay nearby.
The failed New Year’s Eve assault on the city was only a temporary setback in what will almost surely be a continued Russian offensive in Chechnya, an oil-rich, mostly Muslim republic that declared independence from Russia three years ago.
But the Chechen victory in Grozny gave the lie to Moscow’s boast that it could easily conquer Grozny and cast Kremlin leaders in the role of bunglers who sent unprepared Russian soldiers to their slaughter.
By Monday afternoon, Chechen fighters in Argun, five miles east of Grozny, said there were only a couple of pockets of Russian troops left in the capital. Russian sources confirmed that troops had pulled back from the central city but said reinforcements were arriving.
…
The official Russian press service dropped its earlier claim that Russian troops control central Grozny and admitted that Chechen fighters were putting up resistance from 50 positions with artillery, missiles, grenade launchers and flamethrowers.
But the Russians denied that about 600 troops had been killed and 300 soldiers taken prisoner, as the Chechens claimed.
The official press service said “several tens of armored vehicles” had been burned, and that “some” soldiers had been captured, but mostly only the wounded. The press center admitted that Russian forces have suffered losses but did not say how many, remarking only that the death toll was “less than what was expected for this type of operation.”

However, Russian anti-war lawmakers returning to Moscow from Grozny described a Russian rout.
“The troops that entered the city suffered a crushing defeat,” they said in a statement that was also signed by President Boris N. Yeltsin’s human rights commissioner, Sergei A. Kovalev, who remains in Grozny.
“Thousands of civilians have died in bombing raids and under the ruins of their houses,” the lawmakers said. “Hundreds of (Russian) soldiers have died in battle. The government information service is hiding the truth about the casualties. In fact, we are dealing with mass murders that fall into the category of genocide,” they said.
Television footage showed the Russian military Goliath to be made up of dazed-looking teen-agers, while Chechnya’s “Davids” looked like seasoned men in their 20s and 30s, many of them Soviet army veterans.
The rebels said they are desperately short of arms and ammunition. But some danced in the streets with joy at their victory over the despised Russians, under whose rule Chechnya has chafed since czarist times.
Chechen fighters said many trapped Russian soldiers had taken refuge in Grozny apartments inhabited by ethnic Russians. “They’re being smoked out,” Aliyev said. “The city is being cleaned.”
In the eastern village of Chechen-Aul, at least one person died when Russian planes bombed the open-air market. Along the road east of Grozny toward Dagestan, which had previously been left unscathed as a route out for refugees who had been urged by Moscow to leave the city, Russian Sukhoi fighters swooped overhead and attacked nearby villages. They swarmed out of patches of clouds in the blue sky like sharks suddenly appearing in pristine waters.
As before, the Russian bombs and rockets hit mainly civilian targets, giving little military advantage and serving only to further inflame the population.
“We’ll win, we’ve already won,” said Idalov of Dzhalka, which has been hit by 22 shells in recent days. “Such a powerful country as Russia has attacked a republic of 1 million people. This is Russia’s shame–and every Chechen citizen will stand to the end.”
The Kremlin, now committed to the biggest war since Afghanistan, was silent Monday, and it was impossible to predict how it would react to having its nose bloodied by lightly armed bands of irregulars.
It was even less clear why the Russian army–which saw bloody urban combat in Stalingrad, Berlin and Budapest–had apparently committed the astounding mistake of trying to take the city with tanks and armored vehicles that lacked proper infantry support.
Eyewitnesses said it appeared that the light Russian armored vehicles had rumbled disoriented through the Grozny streets, and when some managed to reach the palace, they seemed not to know what to do next.

– The Advance on Grozny, 2nd Chechen War, 1999

Oct. 27, 1999 12:01 am
By Paul A. Goble, communications director for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. He has served as special adviser on Soviet nationality problems and Baltic affairs at the State Department.
In the wake of its missile attack on the Chechen capital of Grozny, Russia risks a defeat far greater than it suffered during its first campaign against Chechnya in the mid-1990s. While that earlier effort showed the Russian military to be a shadow of its former self, it also highlighted some positive developments in Russian political culture and in the government’s way of dealing with its own people, with the Chechens, with its neighbors and with the West. Now all of that is being destroyed.
Moscow’s willingness to talk undercut some support for Chechen radicals who had argued that the only thing Moscow would ever understand was violence.
Worse, the new war highlights and accelerates unwelcome changes in Russia itself, in Chechnya and in East-West relations. Russian forces may be at the outskirts of Grozny, but the Russian government and the Russian people are now in a disorderly retreat from liberal democracy and the principles that underlie that system of government.
This is happening on three fronts.First, Mr. Putin and his government have sought to whip up resentment against Chechens and Muslims by making broad charges against them without evidence. They have openly encouraged Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and other like-minded local leaders who have stepped up their efforts to expel people from their regions on the basis of ethnicity.
Second, the Russian military is attacking more Chechen civilians as it seeks to minimize Russian casualties.
Third, Mr. Putin and his new media ministry have lied about what is going on and imposed strict controls on media access so that the average Russian has a difficult time finding out the facts.

– Lead up to the fall of Grozny, 2nd Chechen war:

Chechnya
Russia forced to halt battle of Grozny
Suspension of air and artillery assault and sacking of generals amount to embarrassing admission of failure in fight against Chechens
Crisis in Chechnya: special report, Ian Traynor in Moscow
Russia’s three-month war against Chechnya reached a watershed last night when the military announced it was suspending its air and artillery pounding of parts of Grozny, and also sacked two of the three most senior officers in charge of the campaign. The radical departure – ringing the changes in the officers running the war and switching the focus of the military campaign to the mountains of southern Chechnya – represented a strategic shift that amounted to an embarrassing admission of failure two weeks into the ground assault the Russians said would bring the Chechen capital’s swift capitulation.
Gennady Troshev, a native of Grozny, and Vladimir Shamanov, the commanders of the eastern and western battle groups, were sacked and replaced by their deputies in what appeared to be a tough display by Vladimir Putin, the prime minister and acting president, less than a week after he replaced Boris Yeltsin.
While vastly outgunned and outnumbered, the Chechens are putting up their stiffest resistance of the three-month war, confounding Russian predictions of a quick conquest of the city that became a graveyard for Russian troops five years ago this week.
Shortly before he was sacked, General Troshev announced that the suspension of the assault on Grozny was being made because of the danger to civilians and mounting Russian casualties.
He also cited the risk posed by chemical weapons allegedly used by the rebel defenders.
Mr Putin, the political architect of the Chechen war and its main beneficiary in terms of public support, looks unstoppable in his drive to replace Boris Yeltsin as president. But he is vulnerable to bad news from the war front. The first serious setbacks to the Russian campaign are emboldening the Chechen guerrillas, who are mounting counter-attacks, recapturing villages, staging ambushes behind Russian lines, defending Grozny and fighting fiercely in their southern strongholds.
“The rebels are divided into mobile groups of up to 15 men armed with sniper rifles, submachine-guns, grenade-launchers, and mobile mortars. They constantly change positions, using hideouts prepared in advance and underground communications.”
Madeleine Albright, the US secretary of state, is to meet Mr Putin in Moscow at the end of the month for talks that are likely to raise the subject of Chechnya.
Sandy Berger, President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser, said: “Russia’s fight against terrorism is right, but its use of indiscriminate force is wrong. It is inviting far more serious problems for itself than it can possibly be solving.
“Russia is paying a price for its conduct in Chechnya. Russian democracy must not.”

– And finally, The Fall of Grozny, 2nd Chechen War:

Nearly five months after he dispatched Russian forces to Chechnya, Acting President Vladimir V. Putin announced today that the Russian military had captured its capital, Grozny, and that the Russian tricolor was flying over it. ”A short time ago, the last stronghold of the terrorists’ resistance was taken: the Zavodsky district of the city,” Mr. Putin told the ORT television network. ”So we can say that the operation for the freeing of Grozny has ended.”
With the cost of rebuilding the city estimated at more than $1 billion, Russian officials have suggested that Grozny will probably never be restored, leaving it as a symbol of retribution, not reconciliation.
With most Western correspondents blocked from reporting from Chechnya, it is difficult to verify the Russian account of the fighting.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 13 2022 20:25 utc | 107

@ Arch Bungle | Nov 13 2022 15:47 utc | 21
IIRC India suffered a curiously coincidentally timed terrorist attack too, quite recently, after Empire was yet again rebuffed, promptly posted a terror alert warning on the US Embassy website … then Boom !
The more things change the more they stay the same. Or to paraphrase … the more they make offers that cannot be refused, the tighter they squeeze, the more it all slips away between their fingers …
Turkey is being unwittingly compelled to decamp Empire/NATO & jump ship, in its own national interests …
Hubris
@ james
добрый день друг приятно познакомиться сегодняCheers 😉
Ahem … um, imitation being the sincerest form of flattery …
Interesting posts IMHO on the tail end of the previous Ukraine thread, by whirlX, Yeah Right & MJK … IMHO.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 13 2022 20:30 utc | 109

Jen | Nov 13 2022 20:08 utc | 106
Thanks Jen. I didn’t pick up straight away but Gruff did. Once he mentioned it…
I have watched so many people around me change with the last eight years of propaganda. Now there are many username usurpers here and the distinction between the real and the not real becomes blurred.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 20:35 utc | 111

Posted by: Simon | Nov 13 2022 20:40 utc | 119
So trolls don’t exist …right?
Like the elves or Jesus, right?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 13 2022 20:43 utc | 113

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 13 2022 14:15 utc | 7
I offer two contrasting commentaries on Kherson and the overall impressions of the Russian war; how it started, how it went, we all know. How it will go… well, i let people draw their own conclusions. Considering Russia blew up the only 2 bridges connecting Kherson to the East… it doesn’t give one much confidence they are planning to return in any hurry.

How dumb is you boy ?
I suspect, suspect, that the RAF (hahaha, always make oi larf) that the russian armed forces have some experience in crossing rivers . . .
And using rivers to stop der germanic hordes !

Posted by: Sarlat La Canède | Nov 13 2022 20:48 utc | 115

re: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 17:45 utc | 58
you wrote “US in now working on a sanctions from hell package for China. “deter” is the word they use.”
I have often wondered how a nation with a service economy can win a trade war with the nation that it depends on for most of its manufactured goods and pharmaceuticals. The neocon/neolib geniuses in Washington think they can defeat China by withholding their worthless digital currency; well good luck with that you f**king idiots.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 13 2022 20:56 utc | 117

There is only one destination on the West’s current track and the only question is how much damage it will do to the rest of humanity on its way to that dead end.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 18:06 utc | 67
Unfortunately you are 100% correct William.
Many realise this is the case in Europe.
Nobody tasked with running Europe wants to know
Explain that level of turpitude?

Posted by: jpc | Nov 13 2022 20:59 utc | 119

…such as Putin’s pompous threat “we haven’t started yet”…
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 13 2022 15:06 utc | 12
Such a remark renders your comments worthless in my view. My maxim of not bothering to read a comment further or take it seriously if it criticises Russia is proving quite reliable.
That first comment by “Jen” had me wondering if it was an imposter. Pleased to read that is the case. The real Jen can take the impersonation as a kind of compliment.

Posted by: tucenz | Nov 13 2022 21:04 utc | 121

Jusses@ 105

I still haven’t understood what “antisemitic” is supposed to imply. The Palestinians and other arabs (among many others) are semites. Khazars, for example, aren’t. Yet people use this idiotic word as a weapon whenever someone tries to discuss any of the horrific crimes of either Israel or of some inhuman criminal identifying as a jew (of which there are many, usually not semites).

Semantics over semitic? I think we understand the common usage. Tarring an entire country, people, race, religion, etc because of the sins of a minority or even majority but usually its criminal leadership is what gets my dander up. And it is exactly what some, even many but not all, jews do the Palestinians.

As for “incoherent”, didn’t you notice there are different people with different opinions here?

I did, and I noticed that among them are trolls, some evil doing dark, evil work, some just looking for mice and worms to eat.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 21:07 utc | 123

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 18:41 utc | 76
Now now. You are going way too far. I see that you repeat all the Western talking/programming points: not using Russia or leadership but simply “Putin”, Russian breakup from the dissatisfied minorities, stressing the few PR points of failure… I am surprised you also didn’t mention Bucha or the familiarity of Russians with toilets.
Doesnt work on me and I am a critic.

Posted by: alek_a | Nov 13 2022 21:12 utc | 125

@ Outraged | Nov 13 2022 20:30 utc | 116
lol… these threads can be very long and unwieldy! glad you enjoyed paveways post, as did i…
@ Don Keytale | Nov 13 2022 21:07 utc | 132
gee mr kayfabe – that looks like an attack on a poster more then anything else… has all star wrestling finally come to moa?

Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 21:15 utc | 127

Jen | Nov 13 2022 21:17 utc | 139
Well not sure which Jen you are, but I’ve got Credence playing, ethanol levels are getting into the green on the gauge and feeling good.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 21:21 utc | 129

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:16 utc | 90
I said nothing about multipolarity. The existence of China ensures that. But Russia faces a bleak future, as bleak as Europe’s. Putin rolled the dice and they did not land as expected.
———————-
Total nonsense! Every thing Putin did (and I strongly believe every thing he’s going to do) was to guarantee that Russia would avoid facing a bleak future, when the thing, be it a SMO or an all-out war, concludes, which has made SMO a “strange” military peration (SMO has been apreparely against many established minitary principles).
However, Putin’s smart moves has made perfect political and economic sense. Putin has prevented Russia from ecomomic collape, and the collective West failed to land on Russia a KO even with the unprecented hellish all-parassive sanctions nuclear bomb.
Putin allowed the Ukies to attack K and pre-SMO Russia territory, which made most Russians realize that the ecourtry 404 is really a natinal security threat to Russia, And thus reversely proved the SMO

Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 13 2022 21:22 utc | 131

Melaleuca @ 96.

Categorically no.

I disagree Russia is so crazy huge and I assume has so may bases that 300K soldiers is nothing and could be diluted out pretty easy 50 here 100 there, 5 men on howitzer instead of three, that sort of thing, especially if they’re put among the large conscript force, or better, cleverly send 300k conscripts on 3 month furlough. RF would have to be deliberate and very careful masking it, not building extra barracks, opening new bases etc. Really big problem isn’t all the USA tech surveillance stuff it’s its spies on Russian soil and the military. That certainly would be hard to hide it from.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 21:30 utc | 133

Outraged | Nov 13 2022 21:22 utc | 141
Dying Empires are not always rational. Will US simply incite conflict between China and Taiwan then stand back or direct conflict with China remains to be seen. US does seem to be afraid of direct conflict with China. It sails its ships between the two China’s and constantly provokes.
Psychologically, US has the upper hand because it does not care about its own people or any other people, whereas Russia and China leadership are very people orientated. On the other hand, Russia especially and China have the upper hand in economy and retaining culture.
Culture is a big thing. China’s economy is vulnerable to a naval blockade as it is a trading nation. At the same time, China as we have seen with covid, can mobilize the entire nation very fast. They have a smart leadership, so they may be able to quickly offset an attack on their economy. But still, I think china is more vulnerable to attack than Russia. They may well/proberbly will withstand that attack but at greater cost.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 21:39 utc | 135

The US takes the moral high ground in Ukraine and everywhere else claiming it follows the international “rules based order”, but look at the theft it is making in Syria where it is said to be helping itself to 81% of Syria’s oil in the regions where there just happen to be US military bases. Now they are helping themselves to wheat as well.
“Hasaka, SANA-The US occupation forces plundered 94 tankers and trucks loaded with oil and wheat from Hasaka countryside to north Iraq via the illegitimate border crossings.”
As usual the pathetic western media says nothing, yet this is taking place not far from Ukraine and more evidence of how the country respects no one else’s sovereignty and is basically a blatant thief of other countries’ resources. https://sana.sy/en/?p=290012
Why pay for oil when there is a fossil fuel crisis when you can just steal it? Sanctions on the US? Na, that’s only for other countries.

Posted by: George | Nov 13 2022 21:40 utc | 137

Here we go again..
Powerful explosions hit Lugansk
The LuganskInformCenter agency posted on its Telegram channel photos of a towering plume of smoke over the city
https://tass.com/emergencies/1535967
Ukraine is playing with Russia by now. The word Humiliation do not cover what is going on.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 13 2022 21:49 utc | 139

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 19:16 utc | 90
I said nothing about multipolarity. The existence of China ensures that. But Russia faces a bleak future, as bleak as Europe’s. Putin rolled the dice and they did not land as expected.
———————-
Total nonsense! Every thing Putin did (and I strongly believe every thing he’s going to do) was to guarantee that Russia would avoid facing a bleak future, when the thing, be it a SMO or an all-out war, concludes, which has made SMO a “strange” military peration (SMO has been apparently against many established minitary principles).
However, Putin’s smart moves has made perfect political and economic sense. Putin has prevented Russia from ecomomic collapse, and the collective West failed to land on Russia a KO even with the unprecented hellish all-permeative sanctions nuclear bomb.
Putin allowed the Ukies to attack Crimea and pre-SMO Russia territory, which made most Russians realize that the country 404 is really a national security threat to Russia, which thus reversely proved the SMO is totally reasonable and necessary.
It’s a Three Kingdomw conflict, but not a camp vs. camp confrontation. Naturally, each of the three Kingdoms doesn’t want to be a greatly weakened winner, but wants to be another Post-WW2 USA, period. Only from the perspective of the Three Kingdoms, can you see the big picture.
(I accidentaly posted unfinished and unchecked post 142. My apology.)

Posted by: Chen Laoshi | Nov 13 2022 21:54 utc | 141

2) Cut Ukraine off from Western support. That can still be done, but is getting harder and harder every day that Ukraine gets armed more heavily.
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 13 2022 15:15 utc | 14
Ukraine is getting armed more heavily with what?
The latest announced tranche includes SAMs designed in the 50s and sufficient quantities of 155mm rounds to last for a week or two at best. The main sponsor is running out of materiel to donate. US announced it is delivering more HIMARS ammo but refrained from mentioning numbers because they were nothing to write home about, and they would be trumpeting those figures otherwise, as they always do.

Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 13 2022 21:57 utc | 143

Stonebird | Nov 13 2022 21:55 utc | 153
This is a usurper. I understand American English well enough.

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 13 2022 22:00 utc | 145

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 13 2022 18:35 utc | 75
This sort of apologia for the German ultra-nationalists and Nazis is not at all what I was referring to. My point was about the policies, tactics and options taken by the allied countries that eventually prevailed in WWII. Practically all of them committed serious blunders during the early period of their participation in the war. All that should not be discounted because the Axis powers were defeated.
Thus, when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine, even if Russia eventually prevails to any possible extent, criticism for the conduct of the war (and IMo the road leading to it too) is perfectly legitimate and valid. It will also have beneficial effects for Russia, if the desire to seriously study the subject is genuine.

Posted by: Constantine | Nov 13 2022 22:04 utc | 147

Unless they’re omniscient, nobody knows the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
That said, sometimes one can discern the outlines of a possible future. Thus, at the beginning of 2022, it was clear from the Russian forces massed on the border that Vladimir Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.
Similarly, at the beginning of September you could guess Ukrainian intentions towards the southern Kherson region by the topography and concentration of forces, as well as Zelensky’s public statements.
Then, the surprise Kharkiv offensive (maskirovka is not just a Russian specialty). In two short months Ukraine regained substantial territory that nobody predicted.
What about the future? Russia will keep bombing Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure in an attempt to pound them into submission. This will be tempered by the knowledge that Ukraine holds some cards in terms of the vulnerability of the Crimean water supply and the range of its missiles.
For the end-game, Putin’s minimal fall-back position would be possession of the original disputed territories – Luhansk and Donetsk – plus Crimea, and Ukraine as a neutral country.
These are measurable outcomes, and could be sold to the Russian public as a win. Also for domestic consumption, Putin could add some blather about denazification and protection of the Motherland. Claims about ‘demilitarisation’ will be quietly dropped.
Given the above, in the near future Russia will probably continue and intensify its push towards Bakhmut. Ukraine will likewise step up its defenses because Zelensky’s goal is clear: the return of all pre-2014 Ukraine.
So barring unforeseen events, there’s a long and hard road ahead for all participants.

Posted by: MrB | Nov 13 2022 22:10 utc | 149

Slavyangrad made a dedicated post about Kinburn Spit, situated west of Kherson on left bank of the Dnieper river. It’s a barren, sandy peninsula with little natural covers, and any landing force would be relatively easily isolated with artillery. In fact, UAF has made landing attempts on it before and every time they either get sunk in the sea or just destroyed with longer range artillery. It’s also partially a marsh, not making heavier equipment deployments viable. The best one can hope is to stealthily insert saboteurs.
The territory of discord – what is going on around the Kynbirna Spit and why the enemy’s joy is unfounded
First of all, we should decide what kind of territory we are talking about. Kinburn Spit is a sandy strip of land, which is located between Yagorlytsya Gulf in the Black Sea and the Dnieper-Bug estuary – it is the western part of the Kinburn peninsula.
The western part of the peninsula is situated in the Ochakovsky district of the Nikolaev region, and the eastern part is in the Golopristansky district of the Kherson region. The length of the spit is about forty kilometers, and its width is about ten kilometers.
What is Kinburnskaya Spit from the viewpoint of the operational bridgehead? As can be seen from the description of the territory, the spit is more than a vulnerable target for any artillery or aviation. Rare forests alternate with small marshy areas, leaving troops without natural cover.
Under such conditions, where it is impossible to deploy a serious force on the spit, as a large grouping of troops would be instantly identified and destroyed, the only deployment option is small groups to deal with saboteurs.
Ukrainian forces have already attempted to land forces on the spit, and we remember how this ended – with the destruction of the USS Slavyansk (originally WPB-1321 “Cushing” of the US Coast Guard) cutter on 3 March. The boat, by the way, was destroyed by a missile on approach, which only confirms our thesis about the spit’s penetrability for long-range weapons. Later, on September 15, more than a hundred Ukrainian paratroopers were killed similarly – their beach holiday was not going well.
To sum up: the Kynbirna Spit does not involve the deployment of large forces on it, and any such attempt is immediately suppressed. The Russian army is watching the spit, as it has always done, and the talk on Ukrainian resources about the great victory is nothing more than a lot of chatter on the bench in front of the house.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20154

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 13 2022 22:11 utc | 151

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 18:41 utc | 76
Oh, bull fucking shit, you aren’t Jen. Terrible job imitating her writing style. She is measured, logical and pithy. Never uses all caps.
Same old neocon troll after all these years. Can’t even figure out how to do a decent imitation.
I do a better job at imitating you, and it’s not my occupation you are just a predictable simpleton.

Posted by: Haassaan | Nov 13 2022 22:16 utc | 153

Chen Laoshi @ 152

Putin allowed the Ukies to attack Crimea and pre-SMO Russia territory, which made most Russians realize that the country 404 is really a national security threat to Russia, which thus reversely proved the SMO is totally reasonable and necessary.

Initially it did indeed seem like a terrible idea exactly for the reason you state. But now it reveals itself as part of a broad well planned Pentagon strategy. What at the start seemed like simple terrorism, random shells and missiles, was a slow escalation forcing Russia to divert ever more forces there to prevent a breakthrough onto Russian soil proper. I would be a staggering public relations disaster for the government, maybe even fatal. Russia has had to build up serious defenses in front of Belgorod and Kursk, trenches, dragons teeth and minefields and tie up forces badly need elsewhere. Cut up and isolate Russian troops, keep them from moving forward in force, that was real the plan not terrorism. I really don’t think the Pentagon gives a hoot about Russian morale, it’s pretty clear now it’s about an assured arrogance and going for the kill.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 22:19 utc | 155

@ Haassaan | Nov 13 2022 22:16 utc | 164
yeah.. i am slowly coming to the same conclusion… i have one way to back check this too.. when i find out, i will let you know..

Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 22:23 utc | 157

[154] “delivering more HIMARS ammo but refrained from mentioning numbers”
I assume you mean the ammunition that HIMARS uses (not the vehicles) ? Have they ever given a number?

Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 13 2022 22:31 utc | 159

I see EU is setting aside money to train 15,000 Ukrainians the art of cannon fodder. UK give them a five week course. I guess by then they lean which snd of the rifle to hold against their shoulder and how to take captagon.
Grandfather signed up for WWI, and they where shipped to England. There they underwent a six month training course before heading to the frontlines of France and belgium.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 22:42 utc | 161

Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 22:10 utc | 161
I suppose I should be flattered or something.!
***
Going back a bit, I think the same schema is about to happen in the Taiwan _ China area, as happened at the beginning of the SMO.
Those “sanctions from hell” were coordinated to start just after a provoked “attack” by Russia. Which would suggest that several countries in “Asia” have now been co-opted to follow the US line.
I couldn’t understand why the US would want to take on China at the same time as Russia, unless the aim was different from their publically stated ones. Not outright war (others do the fighting anyway), but much more based on regular “capitalist brutalism”.
Really, the EU has been, and still is being screwed royally. This has served to support the US, with anything from arms sales to LNG. So the target for the “Taiwan/China” scenario probably has the same type of thinking behind it.
The US needs to get Asia “behind it” AND pay for having their industries and assets being sent to the US.
****
Note that Russia’s “halt” at the moment takes this Corporate orgy on Ukraine and the EU assets, into account. We are being left to find out just how crude their ongoing theft is. The Russians only have to wait while the EU is stripped naked with the help of it’s politicians.
It also points to WHO the “deep state” are behind the Bidens of this world.
****
PS. “They only have to wait while the EU is stripped”; I think I might draw a line at the vision of a mass of Brussels parliamentarians stripped off, sitting around in that vast auditorium.

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 13 2022 22:50 utc | 163

I just posted this to the previous Ukraine thread where the discourse occurred. I post it here for further reference.
Outraged @309–
Thanks very much for your reply! I see you can read between lines. I agree with your assessment. I’ve been very closely following the decision process for Russia’s political-economy since the 2014 Coup and looked into what was being done before that. Very early in Putin’s presidential career, he made it clear that Russia would adhere to a policy of People Centered Development aimed at lifting the wellbeing of Russians and Russia and halting the demographic decline. Few understand how intensely Putin has tried to deal with that last issue. I’ve tried to show that by providing Putin’s meetings where that issue is discussed by bolding the text to help people see. IMO, it’s very instructive to know/revisit Putin’s meetings with China’s leaders, not just Xi. Putin’s taken a page from Deng’s book of sayings by using the best mouse catching cat–in this case, facets from China’s development process. Eventually, I concluded that Putin et al are in the process of building Socialism with Russian Characteristics. The Joint Vision espoused in their 4 February Joint Declaration’s importance I can’t emphasize enough, and I see aspects of it reiterated in many places by many actors. IMO, both Xi and Putin knew the Collective West would ignore what they Declared, so it was aimed at the RoW to let one and all know the Age of Plunder was to be closed and the Age of Enlightened Development opened offering the opportunity for humanity to evolve to a higher state of being–greater maturity as I describe.
So, the Great Gambit was devised in 2021 by Putin et al and Xi et al and put into motion last December and met with the anticipated response. Was the process accelerated in February or was that all for show? IMO, we’ll only know when the archives are opened well after we’re gone. Were mistakes made? Yes, but far more by NATO than Russia. By the end of November, we’ll know much more after the spate of Summits. The comeuppance to be visited on the one-time Plundering Nations will be terrible for their publics, with the last to be felled being the Outlaw US Empire as its Dollar Hegemony sinks into the past and Depression visits its inhabitants. When? Probably a few years after the NIEO becomes functional, say 2026. The interim will hold surprises as the Empire will struggle mightily to avoid drowning. But the Neoliberal Parasites doing the Imperial “planning” are hamstrung by their own doctrines and thus incapable of saving the already sinking ship.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 13 2022 23:13 utc | 165

Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 103
I agree on the whole but that quote was from WS Churchill not VV Putin.
HERMIUS | Nov 13 2022 22:54 utc | 176
Didn’t you miss the “Quotation marks?” Or do you and The Saker just think alike?
https://thesaker.is/a-few-week-end-musings-on-the-role-of-ignorant-useful-idiots-in-modern-warfare/

Posted by: bevin | Nov 13 2022 23:18 utc | 167

More and more noticing of the $$$$$$$ to Ukraine in 2020
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1591660319826644992

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 13 2022 23:25 utc | 169

Alek_a @ 135, Chen Laoshi @ 142 and 152, Ed Nelson @ 171:
There is a troll active here who is using my name “Jen”. I’m sure s/he has done so on past MoA threads too.
If you continue debating and disagreeing with the troll, you will soon find the troll not only makes the most ridiculous statements about Russian and Ukrainian capabilities but starts insulting you as well. I would suggest not having anything to do with this fake “Jen” – I rarely comment on the Ukraine Open Threads anyway as I know those threads bring the troll brigades out in force, wherever they are at GCHQ, 77th Brigade or Soggy Bottom headquarters.
Also, if you see the likes of Zanon agreeing with comments being made by “Jen”, those comments won’t be mine.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 23:40 utc | 171

Battle of Pavlovka:
Translation for the first video from Pavlovka , guy claiming it was ~720 Ukrop there most of them are dead now ofc.
Once a strong point full encircled is a death trap , russian drones watch everything moves and fire support teams starts working from tank-mortar-atgm-guided weapons . If they had vehicles probably got destroyed very soon
If this kind of heavy beatings continue ukrops are in big trouble in Donbass
Watched it again looks like they were trying to flee but were cut down on the open
https://t.me/missilesnukes/6698
Video, apparently one of the 18 UAF defensive structures near Pavlovka. All were claimed to be eventually encircled and methodically ground down with artillery, ATGM and drones.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/20161

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 13 2022 23:53 utc | 173

The withdrawal from Kherson can be seen as a sort of anti-Stalingrad. Instead of political interference hamstringing the military, we have the military freed to make operational choices even at the cost of embarrassing the political figures. And this, ultimately, is the more intelligent – if optically humiliating – way to fight a war.

Posted by: Number 36 | Nov 14 2022 0:13 utc | 175

Interesting times.
Operation Lockpick(Bagration), has now begun. ;O

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Nov 14 2022 0:15 utc | 177

Jen Nov 13 2022 23:58 utc | 188
“……the HMARS may actually being doing their jobs better than we’ve been led to believe”
HIMARS+ US surveillance intel.
The US eyes in the skies know exactly where the Russian forces are…
There are US trained Ukrainians operating the HIMARS with targeting provided by US drone operators.

Current and former U.S. officials knowledgeable about the operations told The Intercept that the U.S. military has deployed extensive ISR — or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance — assets to countries neighboring Ukraine to monitor developments within the embattled nation.
The assets are largely aircraft tasked with flying along the borders between Ukraine and its NATO-allied neighbors, which must be careful not to cross into Ukrainian airspace.
Capable of peering deep inside the country, the aircraft glean intelligence that is then passed onto the Ukrainians, according to two former US officials knowledgeable about current operations.
The aircraft include MQ-9 “Reaper” drones, Boeing RC-135 “Rivet Joints,” and Boeing E-3 Sentry “AWACS,” which have been used to eavesdrop on communications and collect imagery intelligence, according to one of the former officials, a retired CIA officer.
A current US Army signals intelligence officer said that the UShad deployed many of the ISR assets to neighboring countries in February, following Russia’s massive troop buildup along the Ukrainian border.
Open-source flight data shows the same models of aircraft positioned over Poland, Romania, and the Black Sea. https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-russia/

This February Intercept article says the US provides only “finished” data to Ukraine, not real-time raw data… but that is no longer correct.
It has slipped out that real time data and targeting is provided by the US… but the Pentagon hasn’t crowed too loudly as this makes the US a direct party to the conflict.
The “yeeeehaaa! Let’s kill us some ruskies” cohort hasn’t been as discreet..

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 0:24 utc | 179

Hereward | Nov 14 2022 0:22 utc | 192
Russian telegram and Russian media have called for the spying, prying drones to be downed. [same as twitter and Rachel Madcow making demands]
Another extract from from the Intercept article cited above:

When a Russian drone briefly crossed into Poland, NATO allies threatened to shoot it down. What if the United States made a similar mistake?
……> “And despite best efforts, there are always risks of accidents in which intelligence operations can run afoul of red lines.
On Sunday, a Russian drone briefly crossed into Poland, a NATO member, leading to a warning from the alliance that it could respond with force — an alarming threat of direct confrontation with Russia.
The drone was conducting the same kind of surveillance operations as the United States’s ISR aircraft do just along Ukraine’s borders.

https://theintercept.com/2022/03/17/us-intelligence-ukraine-russia/

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 14 2022 0:36 utc | 181

Tucenz @ 129, Melaleuca @ 193:
The comment @ 188 is from the troll. The troll didn’t pay much attention to his/her/its punctuation or spelling.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 14 2022 0:54 utc | 183

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 14:15 utc | 8
“that goes double for RSH. Relax dude and don’t take the trolling personally. If you stop participating because of the trolling then the trolls win.”
You’re partially correct. I try not to take trolling personally. The problem is I already hate most of humanity, so it’s hard to keep that aspect from drifting into a conversation. My policy about enemies – and trolls are enemies – is essentially Conan’s: “To crush your enemies. See them driven before you. And to hear the lamentations of their women.” Enemies are to be given scorched earth policies.
My biggest complaint is that someone does an ad hominem insult to me, I respond, then everyone else comes along a page of posts later and says, “Wow, RSH is such an asshole” – because they didn’t read the initial attack. This has happened consistently here for months. There is no winning that game, and I don’t like playing games I can’t win.
The only way to keep my cool is not to participate. As for them winning, well, as long as they aren’t being banned, they are winning. As others have noted, once half the posts are trolls, they’ve basically won. And b doesn’t have the time to clean out even the obvious trolls.
There’s also the question of time. I spent a LOT of time yesterday on Kherson. I do have more important things to do – and my biggest problem in life is that I’m not doing them as much as I should.
I only started posting because Kherson was a major event. I’ve made my position clear – and Anti-Empire referenced above also did it well. So I think I should bow out and do something else for a while – until the next Russian disaster happens. The next four weeks are probably going to be an operational pause anyway. Hopefully the Russians won’t do something idiotic like letting Ukraine bomb Crimea again in the meantime.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 14 2022 1:21 utc | 185

@ Number 36 | Nov 14 2022 0:13 utc | 189
Kindly cite your source when quoting from someone else.

Posted by: suzan | Nov 14 2022 1:26 utc | 187

FWIW both Jen and Stonebird have distinctive writing styles and and distinctive depth & breadth of insights which these trolls glaringly lack and I doubt could imitate with any degree of credibility.

Posted by: suzan | Nov 14 2022 1:35 utc | 189

Number 36 @189. Yes, the withdrawal could well be described as an “anti-Stalingrad” in terms of making the best military decision. But I disagree that it is “optically humiliating”, except for the audience for Western MSM. Seems to me to be another intelligent move.

Posted by: paul spencer | Nov 14 2022 1:40 utc | 191

@ Arch Bungle | Nov 13 2022 20:25 utc | 114
Thank you kindly for producing the curated post … indeed a relevant & timely reminder.
@ karlof1 | Nov 14 2022 0:14 utc | 190
Replied in previous thread.
IMV & experience the rot set in starting with end of Cold War, collapse of USSR, peacocks strutting spouted “Sole remaining SUPERPOWER!!!”. From that moment on concurrent with Neoliberalism has seen the transition of arms design, procurement, maintenance, lifetime cost exponentially balloon. The entire militarizes organization memory of conventional heavy 1st peer ops … faced away to glimmer … replaced by endless Counter-Insurgency campaigns since the opening of Iraq War ’03. The price of ’91-now is the loss of that operational capability. Because of profit extraction & integral rorts, only new production matters, not maintenance/servicing, reserve & spare stocks/parts. This has also affected insufficient technical & support personnel, competency training, across all branches of all services & critically progressively less functionally qualified & capable. This is turn results in less availability of armor, vehicles, planes, vessels of all types, which further impacts on low priority(little PROFIT) of arms training regimes.
Not helped by 30 years of junk & consolidation of armaments monopolies, off-shoring & deliberate de-industrialization (PROFIT)
The Afghan & Iraq Wars, and the concurrent minor wars led to the serial exit of generations of knowledge, experience & capabilities. Vast majority of the most capable most experienced junior officers & NCO’s who up & exited, never advanced to senior ranks, SNCO’s, inexperienced, those with lesser options, dead wood, took their place. Rinse & repeat for over two decades. National Guard & Reserve formations forced into de facto regular duty, forced re-ups & Stop-Loss policy. Forced tours, three, four, five, six, in morale destroying senseless pointless wars.
Hence the likes of Austin & Milley today.
Some practical examples of where this has brought US Military today:
Helicopter Landing Ship Dock ‘Bon Homme Richard’ (IIRC) catches fire dockside, fire rages for a week until it burns to the waterline, all efforts to no avail. Navy CID frames junior ‘disgruntled’ sailor. Turns out 37 commissioned officers & the entire enlisted crew had no damage control or fire training, not a single individual new where the big red buttons for the fire alarm klaxon & automate suppression systems was. 2B$ ship excluding materiel & stores, gone.
CVA Captain informs crew there is nothing wrong with the fresh drinking & washing/bathing water. Even though seaman takes selfie of a glass of water that is milky brown with small ‘floaties’ in it. Four weeks, after numerous crew require hospitalization, its discovered later a number of the fresh water storage tanks had been breached and contaminated by bilge/waste water, including raw sewerage, and myriad toxic waste.
Anyone remember when a CVA docked at Guam and the Captain DEMANDED his crew be permitted to disembark & receive dockside medical treatment, 100’s infected with covid … continuous rotated watches(shifts) in perpetual close confinement, hot bunks & only shared facilities/amenities … a disaster waiting to happen. Removed from command, until families went ballistic.
US manufactures how many M1 Abrams per month as opposed to rebuild/refurbish ? Sweet FA.
How many major shipyard docks capable of constructing new vessels whilst meeting mandatory maintenance/upgrade of existing fleet: Sweet FA, not enough.
Helmets supplied under contract by a sham manufacturer in Idaho(?), actually not to spec, manufactured by CINCO under subcontract, with false certifications.
No current, capacity to manufacture Stinger replacements. National Guard & Reserve issued explicit orders from higher command to surrender quantities of arms & ammunition for shipment to Ukraine.
All Titanium submarine hulls manufactured in last 2+ decades using non certified untested unrated alloy. What ? Minor certified monopoly contract laboratory testing firm falsified all samples certification tests from day one …
~500 or less Tomahawk cruise missiles in war stocks(IIRC). What happens after the magazines, launchers, etc need to restocked in 1st world high intensity conventional conflict ?
The only remaining SUPERPOWER!!!
Could go on, apologies … pissed off now, rant over.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 14 2022 1:43 utc | 193

This is a simple and straightforward technique for when there are no new developments to read about on MoA. You are going to rub your finger from side to side, preferably when reading posts from one of your favorite barflies. I myself prefer Melaleuca, but you are not limited in your choices.
Some prefer indirect contact, barely touching, while others need more intense contact and pressure to enjoy themselves. As always, you’ll need to try different variations for yourself to see what you enjoy. You can try different speeds, change the amount of pressure you use, try using some lube, vary how many fingers you use or switch between direct and indirect contact.
Try to avoid posts by Richard Steven Hack if possible, as that completely ruins the experience.

Posted by: suzan | Nov 14 2022 1:54 utc | 195

We are finally getting the grade one (first grade) trolls.
The kindergarteners have gone to bed.
Yay us!

Posted by: jonku | Nov 14 2022 2:20 utc | 197

I’m curious, why has there been no mention here of Zelensky rolling up the 5 Uke billionaire oligarchs? (If I missed the discussion I apologize) I found the timing interesting since it occurred right along side the rumor that a deal was in the works. Armies move where bankers tell them to go.

Posted by: Light | Nov 14 2022 2:36 utc | 199