R…the afore mentioned UR:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwLR2RLjr-Y
V/r
Eddie Crivello

Posted by: Eddie Crivello | Nov 13 2022 13:26 utc | 4

Since he might miss it, Flying Dutchman writes:
“The evidence is that at least as late as late September they still regarded the land itself as the goal and their military presence as permanent, because if they viewed the land as expendable they never would have held the referendum and solemnly declared the region to be now and forever Russian soil.”
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 13 2022 11:40 utc | 272
My Reply:
They likely moved up the referendums from Nov to Sept because they wanted to ensure that the Kherson oblast would become a part of the Russian Federation. The reason being they probably had decided by then that they were going to withdraw from the right side of the Dnieper.
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Nov 13 2022 13:01 utc | 289
Added note: Probably, the Russians decided, or at least seriously discussed, in early Septemeber, at the latest, the need to perform a strategic retreat to the left side of the Dnieper, abandoning Kherson. The the proposal for the referendums on National Unity day, Nov. 4th, were dirched in favour of late September.
Possibly, something happened in early Septemeber that led to this decision. I do not know what that might have been.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Nov 13 2022 13:49 utc | 6

For all of those consumed with hand-wringing over the recent Russian moves in the Ukraine, keep some things in mind.

1. The Ukraine is effectively defeated and demilitarized. Part of the original mission is accomplished. Russia is now fighting NATO, and that is a new mission for the Russian military.
2. The new mission calls for a new boss. The new boss is now in charge and rearranging the forces to accomplish the new mission.
3. The scope of the new mission is bigger so more forces are required. These new forces are currently being prepared for the new mission.
4. The Ukropians are afraid of what is next, and so are the US military strategists who remote control the Nazi zombie horde. Proof? The troll flood we see right here in the comments. They are part of a desperate effort to demoralize the ignorant and try to prod the Russians into acting on NATO’s time frame rather than the time of the Russians’ choosing.

Putin said the fight hadn’t even started yet. Keep that in mind and let the troll flood run its course. The trollery is just a desperate but futile effort by the empire to seize some sort of advantage, any sort, in the relative calm before the next storm. Where were the trolls when their much ballyhooed Kharkov offensive was being exterminated? As happened then the trolls will again retreat back to under the bridges where the reside once reality overruns their narratives again.
So relax, folks. Don’t let the trolls get to you, and that goes double for RSH. Relax dude and don’t take the trolling personally. If you stop participating because of the trolling then the trolls win.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 14:15 utc | 8

Driving around this morning I caught Cross Talk on the radio, repeated from yesterday. When some speaker express mild trepidation about recent events in the Ukraine, Peter Lavelle interrupted him, as is his wont, to assure him that when the ground froze and 300,00 new soldiers appeared, Russia would regain everything it had lost, and more so besides. Let us hope so. Since the future’s not ours to see, however, Russian needs to prepare for a long war if it doesn’t work out as hoped. These seems to be a latency in America’s wars of 20 years, after which the rising generation has forgotten whatever got us into the war in the first place: Viet Nam 20 years after Dien Bien Phi, Afghanistan 20 years after 9/11 and Tora Bora, etc. In the meantime, the U.S. can print money, and thereby afford to continue the conflict indefinitley, until public opinion turns against it. (Ultimately, of course, for the benefit of the Military-Industrial Complex, as President Eisenhower warned us.)
A long war for Russia likely means a complete, vs. a partial. mobilization; plus the selection and appointment of war leaders willing to see it through. That likely means somebody other than Mr. Putin, after his term ends in 2024. He seems to have no stomach for the war (as opposed to a “special military operation”), hoping to prevail on the cheap. A good example is his decree that university students in the Donbas be exempt from military service:
https://ria.ru/20221113/demobilizatsiya-1831176175.html . Humaine, no doubt, and comparable to the exemption in Russia proper, but inconsistent with a long war.
The current war leaders, Gerasimov, et all, are likely too old; while Shoigu, though a good organizer, is really a fireman, not a military man at all, and meekly acquiesced to the withdrawal from Kherson. Aleksey Dyumin, who engineered the takeover of the Crimea, is sometimes mentioned: he’s a reserve Lt. General, and currently Governor of Tula Oblast. I’m sure Russian can determine its war leaders without outside advice. But IMHO it needs to find them if it hopes to prevail.

Posted by: Seward | Nov 13 2022 14:35 utc | 10

“…the U.S. can print money, and thereby afford to continue the conflict indefinitley…”
This is a very common assertion, but it is false. The US can print pieces of paper (so long as the paper supply chains hold out) but it cannot print troops, ammunition, and weapons systems. The first doesn’t magically transform into the latter.
By the way, making this assertion about money is one way you can tell someone has never had a real economically productive job. People who have actually manufactured commodities, like in a factory or on a farm, don’t tend to take civilization’s artifacts for granted. People who have only consumed but have never produced (sadly most of the America population now) have the luxury of living in the delusion that pieces of paper printed with a particular design are all that matters and everything else can just be bought at Walmart.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 15:10 utc | 12

Mr. Constantine, yes we can and should keep the discussion clean and friendly as you say. But the trolls have been a bit disruptive of a rational conversation, don’t you think? Russia is not going to lose this conflict, just as the US would not lose a proxy war if Russia started one against us in Mexico. So please, no one here who can think straight thinks that Russia is demoralized, or that Ukraine is in a good position. Ukraine is milking US/NATO for all they can get, and I expect the leadership may even flee with their ill-gotten cash as the fighting rages on for who knows how long. Russia has not even started seriously degrading the infrastructure of Ukraine because they would prefer a non-destroyed Ukraine, rather than one that needs complete rebuilding. The only question for me now is, how long will the US be able to dupe the EU into slowly destroying their own economies to please the military industrial complex? I suppose that also depends on how bad this upcoming winter is in Europe. But the idea that sowing doubt in people’s minds at MoA is going to help the Ukrainians win is just silly. The Ukrainians lost when then forced Russia’s hand.

Posted by: John R Moffett | Nov 13 2022 15:19 utc | 14

While I generally agree with Mr. Gruff about printing money, my observation is there’s enough manufacturing capability left in the U.S. to call armament production into place fairly quickly as long as the cash holds out. (It will likely fail sometime, as it did temporarily in 2007, and much longer in the early 1930’s, when creditors will no longer accept our money.)
I was actually involved in one such activity about 30 years ago, when my company manufactured and sold the Government 30,000 Tempested PC’s, at $10K apiece, until the state-of-the-art negated the need for them. It can be done, and I’ve participated in it.

Posted by: Seward | Nov 13 2022 15:29 utc | 16

Of course the trolls come out in full force as soon as there’s any little PR victory, which is all Khereson is. So many new names spouting their gibberish. Where were you all when Russia was eliminating hundreds of ukronazis and mercenaries everyday? You all slid back under the rock you came from. Guess what?? Russia is still eliminating hundreds per day plus forcing an evacuation of Kiev it seems due to lack of power. If anyone believes the outcome is anything but a Russian victory then I have some amazing farm land in the Sahara to sell you. Ukraine will be a frozen cemetery of nazis very soon.

Posted by: Watzov | Nov 13 2022 15:36 utc | 18

The Empire Strikes Back :

At least four killed and 38 others have been injured after an explosion hit Istanbul’s busy Istiklal thoroughfare, according to city’s governor Ali Yerlikaya.
Yerlikaya earlier tweeted that the explosion occurred at about 4:20pm (13:20 GMT) on Sunday.
At least six dead, 53 injured in Istiklal blast: Erdogan
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that the explosion in Istanbul’s Istiklal Street was caused by a “bomb attack,” adding that six people died in the incident.
Speaking before his departure to the G-20 summit in Indonesia on Sunday, Erdogan said the explosion was a “treacherous attack” and its perpetrators would be punished.

No surprise, it was only a matter of time before the Anglo-American empire started upping the pressure on the Sultan …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 13 2022 15:47 utc | 20

“Considering … the horrid treatment of the captives by the Ukro-Nazis and the misery of pro-Russian and Russian Ukrainians…”
Yes, Russia is facing extermination by real-world monsters; by the most hideously demonic forces humanity has ever produced. Calling them orcs and Nazi zombies does not do justice to how utterly devoid of humanity the Empire and its death legions are. It certainly sucks to be Russian right now.
I think some supposed “patriotic Russians and Russophiles” might underestimate the scale of the evil they are up against, and the reality of the conflict. For Russia winning means surviving, but there is more that the Russian leadership is trying to accomplish. Russian leadership wants not only for Russia to survive, but also to ultimately develop friendly and mutually beneficial relations with their neighbors.
I have often argued that Russia should perform a sudden, very sharp tactical nuclear strike on numerous NATO facilities all at once. This is NOT to militarily defeat the EU and the US. Rather, it is intended as a sharp frappé à la tête to hopefully break the West out of the delusion it exists in that is the source of its villainy and global aggression.
Short of that kind of move the careful and restrained actions the Russian leadership is taking are the only way to leave open the possibility of good relations should economic pressure alone break the West out of the grand delusion.
It is a drag dealing with a mindlessly hysterical bitch screaming at you, clawing at you, hitting at you, and sometimes those hits hurt. Your options are to deliver to her a solid punch in the mouth to help her develop a sense of proportion (my recommendation) or to defend yourself as best you can and take the hits until the bitch burns her hysteria out and starts thinking again on her own (Russia’s current course).
I am not going to say Russia’s choice is wrong just because it isn’t the choice I would make. Russia’s approach definitely has merits, and if Russia can outlast the West’s hysteria then more power to them.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 15:54 utc | 22

Looks like Dugin is pointing out what is obviously wrong with Russia in two key observations:
“Dugin sees the responsibility for this with the state power. Russia is an autocracy in which the people have endowed the president with “absolute and comprehensive powers”. These “absolute” powers would also bring with them “absolute” responsibility. Autocracy means, he added, “the abundance of power in success, but also the abundance of responsibility in failure”.
“”The Russian idea. Only they. It’s stupid to accept the total annihilation of humanity just because you’re afraid of the Russian idea, of our ideology. There is no other way. (…) The war must be taken in its entirety become a war of the people. But the state must also become a state of the people, of the Russian people. And not remain as it is now.”
In other words, Russia cannot remain as it is indefinitively: an oligarchy, full of the most overt and arbitrary corruption, incomparably more inefficient and retrograde than China, because as such it will stand no chance against the West, which at least ideologizes democracy and even at times social democracy, though it may not necessarily implement it. Yet what ideology does Russia have to offer in lieu of democracy, even of social democracy, not speak of Chinese socialism or does it plan on remaining an authoritarian state in perpetuity?

Posted by: Ludovic | Nov 13 2022 15:58 utc | 24

Posted by: John R Moffett | Nov 13 2022 15:19 utc | 15
I agree with almost everything in this post, with a few caveats and specifications to add:
FIrst, I definitely recognize the disruptive ifluence of the trolls. It was inescapable that this would happen in a dissident blog. However, when the barflies end up so agitated to accuse other barflies of trolling and struggle to turn the forums into echo chambers of sorts, then the trolls have indirectly but decisively succeeded. When people who should know better equate champions of Anglo-American/western imperialism with those who offer valid criticism of the Russian leadership’s decision (and mid you, this has much to do with the course UP to February 2022), then the trolls have achieved an important goal.
Further, I do not consider this conflict a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine anymore than the Naz invasion in 1941 being a war between the USSR and Romania. I cannot stress this enough. And it is imperative to understand that by extension, the debate goes between pro-Russian (or anti-Imperialists/anti-globalists) and anti-Russian, NOT pro-Ukrainian. The people who wish to see Ukraine fight to the death just to bleed one of the opponents of the Anglo-American empire are NOT pro-Ukrainian.
This is not trivial. The effective decimation of Ukraine as a functioning state is not necessarily a victory against NATO when the latter is advancing even in Ukrainian uniforms (though, with so many western troops now, even that is no longer necessary). And yes, Russia can do more and guess what, that is exactly what should have happened many months before. The attack on the electric grid should have been unleashed by early March at thelatest, the RF should have been prepared for mobilization much earlier, the diplomatic corps should have gotten its act together instead of engaging into coplacency or boomer moments etc.
I also have the impression that you don’t follow actual Russia much, which this blog isn’t part of. The current trend is a combination of copium, anger and frustration, often showing openly in the Russian media. Again, reality for those whose country is engaged in an existential confict with their loved ones and fellow nationals being exposed to increasingly more lethal NATO weaponry is very different from commentators in a western blog, even if the latter comment with the best intentions.
In the end, even if the result is an astounding success for Russia, criticism for the conduct of the war is still perfectly valid. WWII ended with the complete military and political defeat of the axis, but there is a ton of criticism to be made regarding the early performance of the victors.

Posted by: Constantine | Nov 13 2022 16:07 utc | 26

Eventually the Ukrainians would have taken out the dam, flooded Kherson, swamped the civilians, and trapped a good number of Russian forces on the other side of the river without adequate resupply.
Small wonder why they evacuated the civilians and moved their forces. War is war, things ebb and flow. The Ukraine is a huge country with a great deal of infrastructure and water boundries. The Ukraine has some very wealthy backers who want to see the current Russian leadership fail and fall apart.
It is simple dynamics of a bad situation with just average people being chewed up for someone else’s gain. Someone posted a video series from the ’70’s about The Unknown War. The memories must be very painful and in some respects Russia is becoming more vulnerable now that then. They had to act and this will go on for a decade or more just like Afghanistan but I doubt the end on Russia’s part will be like the US end in Afghanistan.
The Unknown War

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 13 2022 16:16 utc | 28

reply to 21
I cringe at saying ‘good’ when an incident harms the innocent. In this geopolitical chess game, threatening Erdogan with domestic terrorism tends to strengthen him. In balance, this maintains the fight against Hegemony.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 13 2022 16:29 utc | 30

It is a drag dealing with a mindlessly hysterical bitch screaming at you, clawing at you, hitting at you, and sometimes those hits hurt. Your options are to deliver to her a solid punch in the mouth to help her develop a sense of proportion (my recommendation) or to defend yourself as best you can and take the hits until the bitch burns her hysteria out and starts thinking again on her own (Russia’s current course).
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 15:54 utc | 23
The problem is that Russia’s current course for what is supposedly an existential conflict is minimalist and has by every identifiable metric emboldened the Anglo-American regime. I also believe that the imperial sociopaths need to feel the burn and I’m not even talking about tactical nukes, but the approach espoused by the Kremlin is so reserved – especially considering what is truly at stake – that NATO acts more brazenly instead of the side that has excalation dominance.
And it is precisely because, as you correctly pointed, the Empire reeks of pure evil and unfettered malevolence that the Russian leadership should have been more resolute. Instead, the standard modus operandi has been for years to spout potential threats to offenders, make exhibitions of new weaponry to back those threats and then toning failing to defend practically every red line set (often, incredibly enough, by the west). It would have been infinitely better to avoid this showing off in a lame effort to discourage western adventurism, but once things got serious to act decisively.
One can say this is just a view, but the brazen escalatory moves on the part of the Anglo-American regime are an undisputed reality. And the current level of decimation of Ukrainian statehood (which, in a perverted way, is partly desired by the west) is no substitute for the actual foil of NATO.
It goes without saying that should conflict come in Taiwan, the west won’t care in the least for the local population. The goal will be to wage a costly proxy war against China, the ultimate target of the global Anglo-American offensive.

Posted by: Constantine | Nov 13 2022 16:37 utc | 32

@ OdessaConnected | Nov 13 2022 16:19 utc | 30
Thanx for that effort to explain ordinary Ukrainian male situation.
A Russian friend of mine told me a long time ago that there is no difference between Ukrainians and Russians at all.
Not that Ukrainians are (were) more ‘Westernized’ or more anti-Russia or differ in any other thing at that time.
It must be really difficult to fight this war from the brotherhood and relatives point of a view.
In all this tragedy, it was rather funny to hear on some videos Chechen soldiers to call Ukrainians – Niemtzi (Germans), as there is a WWII going on.
What a crazy situation that is.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 13 2022 16:48 utc | 34

The funniest thing about how god damn dumb trolls are is that all their actions are ignorant of the Primary Fact… that Russia doesn’t give two shits about “trending social media”.
I suppose facebook morons might be swayed to go merc, so at least they got Darwin on their side. Won’t make a single truckload of 155 shells, though

Posted by: comrade simba | Nov 13 2022 16:51 utc | 36

“Possibly, something happened in early Septemeber that led to this decision. I do not know what that might have been.”
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Nov 13 2022 13:49 utc | 6
Russia damaged a floodgate in Krivoy Rog to raise the water level and destroy the pontoons Ukraine was using to cross the Dnieper. Ukraine started shelling the dam near Kherson shortly after that.

Posted by: First Time Poster | Nov 13 2022 16:55 utc | 38

Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 16:47 utc | 34
Good re-post from PeterAU re: Brzezinksi. Connects to Madeline “price is was worth it” Albright. US (and now EU/NATO) leaders really do see the world as a game, albeit a serious one, in which they are moving pieces and sacrificing others. Even willing to sacrifice civilian pieces as needed. Shamefully inhumane.
Add to the list: Iran the target, sacrifice Yemen, Syria, and Iraq (maybe).

Posted by: Objective Observer | Nov 13 2022 17:03 utc | 40

A Russian friend of mine told me a long time ago that there is no difference between Ukrainians and Russians at all.
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 13 2022 16:48 utc | 35

Ask a Ukrainian friend the same question and you will get a very different answer. Ukraine (the nation) is not a homogenous society. There is more Germanic/Polish influence and DNA in the west and more Russian in the east. There are also at least 3 distinct religious divides.
Here in Canada, when you look at and listen to the leadership of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the Germanic influence is obvious. Yet they pretend to represent the interests of all Ukrainians. Total BS.
However, what the landslide victory in the 2019 Presidential election proved, is that the vast majority of the people wanted everyone to just get along. Minsk 2 would have done that, but was sabotaged.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 13 2022 17:15 utc | 42

@ Opport Knocks | Nov 13 2022 17:15 utc | 43
i agree strongly with everything you said…most people are oblivious to all of this too.

Posted by: james | Nov 13 2022 17:16 utc | 44

According to the UK Daily Telegraph (the house magazine of MI5), Russian forces retreated from Kherson in panic and chaotic disorder, throwing away their weapons and abandoning the wounded, changing into civilian clothes after being told it was “every man for himself.” I’m only surprised they didn’t throw in the bit about getting drunk on vodka and raping babies.

Posted by: paul | Nov 13 2022 17:18 utc | 46

^^^ So, don’t feed the trolls. Unless it’s with a clever, witty putdown we can all enjoy.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 17:21 utc | 48

@Posted by: circumspect | Nov 13 2022 16:16 utc | 29
Yes, the pull-out from Kherson was the right call given the facts on the ground. The frustration is that those facts on the ground would not have arisen if not for Kremlin mishandling of the war up to that point. As you, say they refrained from even hitting critical infrastructure for months. They allowed unrestricted flow of supplies and weapons from the west. They were too afraid to kill American and European “advisors” and hit their intelligence centers in Ukraine. This stymied Russian advancement that could have been made along the south to Odessa. There are a million things that could have been approached better that were not. Of course, what is done is done, and currently the question is whether the Kremlin will continue to make these blatant errors or if they have the political will to crush the Ukraine going forward and decisively win through whatever means necessary.

Posted by: FVK | Nov 13 2022 17:30 utc | 50

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 15:54 utc | 23
You are having an extremist view here. You also over simplify economic factors and reduce the complex Western mindset to a fairy-tale demon. This is the type of thinking that produces overconfidence and blowhard behavior – exactly what the info ops of the West wants.
This is also the type of thinking – probably over represented in russian military circles – that brought Russia to the situation it is in now.
There are no wonder weapons, no general winter, no 300k magical superwarriors that will willingly go fight for the vague overconfident goals Russia has set for itself here. There is determination, spirit and newfound motivation if one abandons juvenile thinking, recognizes own errors/limitations and confronts the situation.
In my opinion, Russia was tricked in the beginning and has been avoiding to see that fact. Escalating every time and being met with a prepared wall of counter escalations.
Who knows, maybe the situation in the West is indeed hopeless economically but I fail to see it and I doubt any of us without privileged info can see it clearer. Maybe there is indeed some reason Russia is making itself seem weak, vengeful, spent and incompetent (as compared to the pumped up expectations).
But what I know is that the tide on the ground has turned decidedly against Russia the past 3-4 months and it can probably just barely hold on to many areas going forward.

Posted by: alek_a | Nov 13 2022 17:33 utc | 52

@William Gruff 23 and earlier

It is a drag dealing with a mindlessly hysterical bitch screaming at you, clawing at you, hitting at you, and sometimes those hits hurt. Your options are to deliver to her a solid punch in the mouth to help her develop a sense of proportion (my recommendation) or to defend yourself as best you can and take the hits until the bitch burns her hysteria out and starts thinking again on her own (Russia’s current course).

I have appreciated your comments over many years, and I thank you for this revealing analogy. I think it is spot on.
I generally do not read the comments any more due to the tendency to engage in war porn. But I remain much more positive about the sad situation in Ukraine as I can easily recognise the trolls of whom you write, and I simply ignore them. I have tried to persuade my friends to fight back against the propaganda onslaught but have largely failed. I remain sanguine about that too and don’t let it bother me. We still meet for a few beers at the appropriate times.
What will be will be. Short of a nuclear conflagration, I think we are heading in the right direction.

Posted by: echelon | Nov 13 2022 17:41 utc | 54

james | Nov 13 2022 17:15 utc | 44
From a Foreign Policy article I linked a few days ago, US in now working on a sanctions from hell package for China. “deter” is the word they use.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 17:45 utc | 56

It is a drag dealing with a mindlessly hysterical bitch screaming at you, clawing at you, hitting at you, and sometimes those hits hurt. Your options are to deliver to her a solid punch in the mouth to help her develop a sense of proportion (my recommendation) or to defend yourself as best you can and take the hits until the bitch burns her hysteria out and starts thinking again on her own (Russia’s current course).
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 15:54 utc | 23

The problem is that Russia’s current course for what is supposedly an existential conflict is minimalist and has by every identifiable metric emboldened the Anglo-American regime.
Posted by: Constantine | Nov 13 2022 16:37 utc | 33

Yes, the mindlessly hysterical bitch of western society has only become more hysterical. The failure to get the response she was seeking has caused her to escalate the hysteria. This is typical behavior for hysterical individuals as well.
But hysteria is costly. Again, the key question is can Russia outlast the crazy bitch’s hysteria? Or as some trolls suggest can the hysteria continue ad infinitum?

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 17:49 utc | 58

Here in Canada, when you look at and listen to the leadership of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the Germanic influence is obvious. Yet they pretend to represent the interests of all Ukrainians. Total BS.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 13 2022 17:15 utc | 43

Well probably what they mean by ‘Ukrainian’ is only an ethnic Ukrainian (in the past known as Rusyns, Ruthenians and Lil’ Russians). They represent their interests, not the interests of Ukrainian Hungarians, Romanians, Poles or Russians.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 13 2022 17:53 utc | 60

I knew a Ukrainian (from what region I did not know) and a Russian from St. Petersburg whom are living in the US. They were friends. The Ukrainian, whom people assumed was Russian, was always quick to point out that she was Ukrainian. She did so even in the presence of the Russian. She was a tall and robust blonde. I employed her for a while as a receptionist. In the end she got on the wrong side of me. She was a stubborn woman. Though this is common among many people. generally.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Nov 13 2022 18:00 utc | 62

Possibly, something happened in early Septemeber that led to this decision. I do not know what that might have been.
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Nov 13 2022 13:49 utc | 6
That is when the “Kherson offensive” started, as I recall.
Remember that the Russians moved into Kherson early in the SMO without a fight, and life there was pleasant for the residents until the Ukies started attacking them a couple of months ago.
Why would Russia leave then?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 13 2022 18:04 utc | 64

This is my first comment and I thought I’d post my thoughts that I shared on Facebook is response to a question someone shared on when people think that Russia will retake Kherson…
Honestly, I think that Russia may let Ukraine occupy the area of Kherson that is west of the Dnieper River potentially for years or forever. I think they moved the citizens that were sympathetic to Russia to the east already. I think they will take the remainder of the Donbas and Zaporizhia which is all to the east of the Dnieper, and freeze the conflict in Kherson in perpetuity. Because the river will be the line. They have the portion of Kharkiv that is a trading point for peace, maybe that gets traded for Kherson but maybe that gets kept or traded away as a face saver for the west.
The point is that it is possible for Russia to keep their claim of that portion of Kherson but never actually take it. Considering it’s not of major importance, they moved statues and an important grave east of the river so in some ways they even decoupled their history from the west of the river. That river is a formidable natural barrier that isn’t matched on the east side Kherson border. That Ukraine and the West will eventually be able to claim Russia at the start of the war occupied some 35% of the country and at the end could be said to occupy 20% seems a way the west can save face. Considering that these are the resource rich areas and that Ukraine will be a subsidized rump, a corrupt dysfunctional government with a ruined economy, sucking resources from the west for decades in recovery. Russia probably can feel a success and lack of fear of a Ukraine build up by NATO with a security agreement that limits the range of NATO weapons in Ukraine if not a total lack of NATO.
The west has secured from Ukraine a total sellout of their country. Zelensky says they are open for business, land lease means that the Ukrainian country will be in debt forever and the greedy capitalists of the west will want to get their spoils sooner rather than later. I imagine that many in the EU will want to restore trade with Russia as well sooner than later and Russia seems willing.
So yeah, I think Kherson stays part of Ukraine potentially forever even as Russia never gives up it’s claim. It’s been said that it would be fairly impossible because of constitutional reasons for Russia to give up its land but they can easily never actually take it and have it be a simple paper concern. Remember that Russia has other territories that they semi claim, not constitutionally but in effect, like Transnistria. Putin claimed in a Q&A that their taking of Odessa is a negotiating pawn. Meaning that eventually they would take Odessa if no negotiation manifests but they would be willing to not do so if peace was possible. For the west they understand that Ukraine without Odessa is a totally pathetic rump country, so the US seems to have indicated that if they were to get involved directly Odessa seems to be the point where they might enter. Russia would ultimately like to avoid direct war with NATO but NATO may be too stupid to know that such a war would be as dangerous for them as it would be for Russia.
So I think that Russia will soon enough, before the end of the year, see major gains in the other areas maybe totally towards the Dnieper. I imagine that this will be their stopping point and they will build enormous defenses there and maybe we will see some temporary cease fires welcomed by Ukraine. If the ceasefires hold for a long time then it may hold till peace is eventually agreed. If it doesn’t then Russia may choose to keep going. But I’m hoping that the economic pressures and Ukraine fatigue will make it stop.
I would say that to some degree, Russia has $300B sitting in foreign reserves that are frozen but that the EU/US is trying to steal. Conceivably Russia could agree to some sort of Ukraine rebuild fund that gives some of those reserves to Ukraine to rebuild in the west and east. This is just a guess, it looks better for the west to not steal their money but twist their arm to agree to give it to rebuild. Russia has an economy that creates reserves it can’t easily use oddly enough this is actually a problem for them. They could trade their billions for peace and an end of sanctions in certain areas and normalcy. Just a thought, Russia seems to have assumed their funds are lost so better for them if they can get something for it. It also looks good for neighborliness if Russia is seen to give it to Ukraine as a grant.
Keep in mind that China wants to continue trading with the EU and they have already said to Germany you have basically screwed up with Russia. With the Turkstream and Nordstream 2 half potentially functional, the EU may start feeling favorable to really great economic terms offered to them over Ukraine peace. Especially since the gas situation will be much worse in 2023.

Posted by: Bruce Wilkinson | Nov 13 2022 18:12 utc | 66

You and your culture and your “mindset” are not “complex”. You’re just fucked up. The West is just a useless mess and your entire civilization is falling apart.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 18:06 utc | 67

What civilization are you part of?
Which civilization is yours?

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 13 2022 18:20 utc | 68

Russia miscalculated by invading with too few troops, and by refusing to treat this as a war. For example, why are foreign politicians and celebrities travelling to Kiev on a regular basis ? Why does Kiev still have electricity ? When will “the gloves come off”? Now Russia looks incompetent.
Printed money many be immoral and doomed in the long run, but the US dollar is not going to collapse in the next few years. That is a long term process that will take 10+ years.
Acting overconfident and accusing anyone who disagrees of being trolls is just an emotional reaction.
If Russia wants to keep its prestige and be seen as a superpower, it needs to get serious and treat this as a war.
Otherwise the Global South will begin to move back to the US. At a certain point, in our despair, are we going to accuse the whole world of being trolls ?

Posted by: Augustus Caesar | Nov 13 2022 18:34 utc | 70

@Constantine 27
It wasn’t just an issue with “early performance” by the Allied aggressors, who made WW II inevitable at Versailles, collapsed the Weimar Republic with reparations, instigated WW II by collapsing the talks intended to alleviate the lot of German speaking regions of Poland, forced the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact on Russia by rejecting an offered stabilizing Russian alliance, and used disinformation to provoke “Operation Barbarossa” and the Soviet response. The egregious war crimes of the Allies, which included not only the above, but the bombing of civilians, destruction of civil infrastructure, use of WMDs, industrial-scale, post-surrender, murder of Axis soldiers, ethnic cleansing of German speaking Europeans and adoption of German and Japanese biowarfare research during and after the war are not criticized, indeed, they are in danger of being swept aside by the sands of time given that discussion of them is not permitted.

Posted by: Hermit | Nov 13 2022 18:35 utc | 72

“Russia is objectively performing flawlessly on the battlefield. ”
This is very funny.

Posted by: Fnord73 | Nov 13 2022 18:48 utc | 74

Jen

THIS IS THE WEEK THAT HISTORY WILL POINT TO WHEN IT SAYS RUSSIA LOST THE RUSSO-UKRAINAN WAR.

On top of that,
US expects Ukrainian conflict to stall during winter – NYT
https://swentr.site/news/566451-ukraine-us-winter-slowdown/
That is also one reason why Ukraine put up an offensive past months until now before the winter is coming.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 13 2022 18:58 utc | 76

Jen @76
It may be a mistake to trust conclusions one arrives at while submerged in a torrent of FUD. Why not wait until we see what Russia does with their recent partial mobilization before we start writing obituaries for multipolarity?

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 13 2022 19:04 utc | 78

@ Augustus Caesar | Nov 13 2022 18:34 utc | 73
If Russia wants to keep its prestige and be seen as a superpower, it needs to get serious and treat this as a war.
I can imagine what people expected from Russia, and we all wanted to see a flash-bang show with weird but fancy weapons doing all kind of stuff and also all that quick, rocking and swinging.
But Russia does it slow, somehow unsexy and in a very restrained manner.
I see nothing wrong with it, but indeed it did set some civilised moral standard of not flattening Ukraine, killing millions and making war as it is usually expected to be done by US/NATO.
One can look at it this way – Russia managed to defend and protect a pretty big South-Eastern chunk of land. And it achieved that on the cheap, not using too much of its most modern equipment, not using a good deal of manpower despite the logistical, intel and other setbacks.
It has corrected most of those baby steps and gained a lot of knowledge about NATO’s EW, SIGINT, comms, weapons and such. Every day passing by, it is more and more combat ready.
NATO/US forces are not. Ukrainians are less and less being a real battlefield factor.
I still believe Russia didn’t shift into the high gear as yet.
So, I see them taking the war very seriously, but they have the methods that we are not used to and also a presentation that is just not appealing to our Hollywood trained brains.
Also, we are probably receiving just 1/4 of the real picture of what is going on.
I think we will see pretty much expected and even better show if there will be escalation with and against NATO/US.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 13 2022 19:08 utc | 80

Posted by: Jen | Nov 13 2022 18:54 utc | 80
The initial offensive won’t likely be in Kherson, Jen.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Nov 13 2022 19:13 utc | 82

Not any sort of expert but some speculation anyway..
This article suggests that Industrial inflation (increase in prices paid by producers for raw material and services) in the Euro-Area are increasing by about 40% year on year.
These sort of increases typically feed into consumer inflation (now running at about 11% in EU) with a 3-6 month lag maybe resulting in above 20% inflation?
In which case should we be expecting several changes of EU governments (maybe a few Place de la Concorde moments ) once citizens realise how they have been betrayed by their current leaders for the benefit of the USA?
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/producer-prices-change

Posted by: Iain | Nov 13 2022 19:14 utc | 84

FVK @ 51 / circumspect @ 61

It certainly looks like failure… Many of us felt that Russia’s military was a powerful unstoppable force on that front but we were wrong. The Russian military appears to have many gaps that need to be filled. My question is does NATO have the stomach to move beyond a proxy war and move into direct conflict? This buys Russia time to perfect a military that is lacking in various aspects.

The USA and NATO spent the last eight years building Stalin’s army in Ukraine while the Russians spent from 1997 to last February building Rumsfled’s army. The Pentagon for all its post WW2 history of failures this time understood what war in central Europe requires and got it right.
It’s starting to appear that the Pentagon didn’t just stumble into this war and had a Plan B, C, and D ready. It’s uncharacteristic, I know, given past history, but maybe this time we are confusing the sanctions debacle from the political side with stumbling on the Pentagon side. The Pentagon understood this war could be existential to USA hegemony and not just another proxy war the empire could weather if it lost.
I think NATO is ready to implement their predetermined plans B/C/D otherwise called WW3. They are not going to give Russia time to get its shit together and remediate the fact that they prepared the wrong army for the wrong war. Words out of Sullivan and the Pentagon are just that, they believe they have the Russian army on the run and there will be no freeze, truce, or peace over Kherson.
Towards Belarus NATO is working double time bottling up allied forces, they are pressuring Russian soil at Belgorod and Kursk to make Russia divert and waste forces there, Russians are now digging trenches and building earthworks at the north of Crimea “just in case”. Russia armies are getting pinned and bottled up to be isolated from each other.
Looks the the Pentagon is still several steps ahead and will see and raise Russia’s winter offensive preempting it with their own screwing up Russia’s timing with the mobilization and arms procurement forcing it to scramble. Current word seems to be a massive attack on Zaporizhzhya and then a blitz to Melitopol splitting Russian forces in the south and putting the AFU back on the Azov sea. I expect any day HIMARS from Kherson to start hitting Crimea and tragically newly rebuilding Meriupol as a morale destroyer and PR disaster to force regime change.
Sorry, today I’m grim.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 19:21 utc | 86

The discussion today, with a couple of exceptions, is of a high quality.
Having no wish to adulterate the discussion I will just make two quick comments.
1/This war, as is the way with wars, particularly in Russia, has revealed deep fissures in Russian society. Some see these as between westernised atheists and patriotic Orthodox. But the real divisions are between classes- the great majority are, even now, muzhik, hard working people who just want peace, security and decent lives. The government however continues to carry the infections that arose when malicious kleptocracy, liberalism, found willing agents in the criminal subculture of Soviet days and cynical careerists from the bureaucracy.
And it is proving difficult to root out the sources of infection. Which is why the Russian Constitution concentrates power at the top- this was exactly what the US wanted when it imposed Yeltsin and the Constitution on Russia in 1994(?).
Russia united can never be defeated but divided into a thieving ruling class and a demoralised, thoroughly disillusioned population, it can never mobilise a tenth of its resources in its own defence, making a certainty a likely but not certain victory.
2/ In this conflict, against NATO which was formed with the sole purpose of dragooning Europe into a re-run of Barbarossa (anyone who buys the ‘defensive alliance’ nonsense should not leave home without a nurse), Russia is the line of defence for most of the world. The defeat of Russia would mean now what it would have meant in the Cold War- a new predatory wave of neo-colonialism sweeping over the global south. All the gains of the movements for national independence and resistance to imperialism would suddenly find themselves facing a united and ruthless imperialism, distilled to its poisonous essence mobilising military power quite unrestrained by fear of competitors. It would march into battle behind deep skirmishing lines of liberal propaganda of the sort which has been perfected in recent decades. And is the dominant ideology in much of the world.
The most promising aspect of the SMO has been the awakening of the global “South” to the realisation that the imperialists are not their friends, they never have been and can never be. For the world to survive the Empire must be demolished. India, Arabia, Indonesia, Latin America, Africa, the Caribbean have no choice in this matter. To cooperate with the Empire is to consent to their own destruction and the extermination of their people.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 13 2022 19:30 utc | 88

LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 16:36 utc | 32
Russia …… “could probably train twice the 300K without NATO noticing.”
No.
Categorically no.
The US/NATO surveil Russia 24/7 and have done so for decades.
There are multiple military satellites passing overhead. Every square centimetre of Russia is monitored.
And then there are the high altitude drones, flown 24/7 along the Russian European border 24/7 for years.
Since the SMO, the drone flight path has moved out of Ukraine airspace and remains in NATO skies… but 24/7 there’s a surveillance drone, sometimes several, doing laps from the Baltics to the Black Sea. At 35,000ft they see well into Russia.
Russia seems to have no equivalent.
What’s surveilling in the last 24 hours?
Eastern Europe
-US navy P8 Poseidon AE4EC0
-French Navy Breguet Atlantic FNY5627
-RAF RC135W Rivet Joint RRR7233
-NATO E3A AWACS NATO11
-USAF KC-135R 57-1439
-USAF KC-135R 61-0315
-RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint ZZ664 active over #Romania.
Mediterranean
-USAF KC-10A FIAT11.
Middle East
-US Navy P8 Poseidon AE67B0 patrolling the Strait of Hormuz.
OSINT plane obsessives have tracked Lavrov and Biden from Cambodia to Bali.
The moment the suicide bomber struck. (Safe mode. No gore)
https://twitter.com/pusholder/status/1591787274894991361
(There have been US planes in the Med off the coast of Turkey for at least a week…..there’s drone footage of the immediate suicide bombing, with dead bodies in the street. Someone knew where to be and when)…

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 13 2022 19:35 utc | 90

Russia needed to launch full out attack, and remove the puppets in Kiev and replace them with a friendly regime
This way a LOT of this bloodshed would have been avoided. So it would have been a more humane option.
Instead we have a delusional leadership in Russia that keeps hoping of a negotiated settlement. NATO has said it wants a regime change in Russia. Forget about mending bridges with the West.
Those bridges are burnt, for a very very long time. And independent Russia and the Anglo rules based order cannot coexist. So Putin should have understood what he was starting. Instead he kept using his lawyer skills to complain to the UN. As if anyone at the UN is not on the neocons payroll.

Posted by: nothing but the trut | Nov 13 2022 19:37 utc | 92

I have been reading US war plans for some years.
I noted that the plans were to fight both Russia and China “over there” using “Let’s you and him fight” tactics.
They planned on keeping the Russia fight in Europe (not just Ukraine but Poland) and the China fight in the Pacific.
The plans included using European deaths to fight Russia and Taiwanese, South Korean, Japanese and Australian deaths to fight China.
Ha! I said. No way, I said. Putin announced some years back that homie wasn’t going to play that game no more.
No way Russia was going to lose 27 million people again. This time he threatened to take it to the source. But of course that leads to the extinction of much of life on this planet, so decent people might be a tad hesitant. I can’t picture Putin, for instance, punching a woman in the face to “teach her a lesson”, no matter how hysterical she might be.
But the Empire started this war in Ukraine and so far it is confined to Ukraine. Putin told us in his Feb. statement that Russians consider Ukrainians to be family. The blood-thirsty Americans who keep screaming “Why doesn’t Russia just destroy Ukraine and kill everyone in it and why didn’t they do it last March” don’t seem to understand that.
The evil ghoulish criminals that run the US are gleeful that so far their plan in Europe is working, so they are ramping up the China fight.
China also seems reluctant to destroy the planet to fight the Empire.
Meanwhile though, the petrodollar is going down. Is that enough to stop the Empire or will they take the world down with them?
I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 13 2022 19:51 utc | 94

bevin | Nov 13 2022 19:30 utc | 94
That description of the factions within Russia may be close to the mark but that ia what Russia is and always has been. The land of Rasputin’s and Putin’s, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key”.
Sit back with some popcorn while yo can. We will go the way of Napoleon and Hitler.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 13 2022 19:57 utc | 96

two dimensional, incoherent, grotesque, antisemitic hate rag
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 13 2022 17:19 utc | 48
I still haven’t understood what “antisemitic” is supposed to imply. The Palestinians and other arabs (among many others) are semites. Khazars, for example, aren’t. Yet people use this idiotic word as a weapon whenever someone tries to discuss any of the horrific crimes of either Israel or of some inhuman criminal identifying as a jew (of which there are many, usually not semites).
As for “incoherent”, didn’t you notice there are different people with different opinions here?
Yes, the world is grotesque. Thank heavens for Russia, India and Iran and for little pockets like MoA.

Posted by: Jusses | Nov 13 2022 20:03 utc | 98

Melaleuca | Nov 13 2022 19:35 utc | 96
but 21 of 28 of those planes don’t even work!
on the one hand…on the other hand…
everything i see america touching from my lower end of the food pyramid looks like an ever increasing pile of malfunctioning, misfunctional plastic crap headed for the landfill in a few weeks.
but maybe we make superspy stuff, airplanes and such? there’s part of boeing makes stuff that works? yeah, i suppose. lots of world gov’ts seem to think so. i assume we put stuff on Mars like the NASA pictures seem to indicate.
but why can’t we put that knowledge to use making some non-military stuff that works? i mean, clearly the USG has perfected the art of using FB to spy on people. it seems reasonable to assume our bombs work, more or less. some stuff works, for sure. toll booths. xmas lights. lotto machines. NFL stadium roofs. golf clap, America. energy well spent.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Nov 13 2022 20:12 utc | 100