Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?
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November 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?
Comments
Giyane | Nov 10 2022 6:06 utc | 433 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:00 utc | 401 What is next? Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2022 8:06 utc | 402 @Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 5:20 utc | 427 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:07 utc | 403 Even I ,an armchair general , would have expected this potentiality occurring ie US entering the war. If so, why did Russia have an SMO at all? You either have a plan , or you shut up and take it. I know Russia relies on bluff as does the US , but surely we need more than just bluff to be relatively likely to win a war. Yes, wars have been won just on bluff ,but you sure hope you have a good chance of winning or causing your enemy a lot of pain ,BEFORE you start firing a shot in anger. Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 10 2022 8:08 utc | 404 The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are concentrating their efforts on reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region and holding the occupied territory. Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:14 utc | 405 The people in Kherson have lost their jobs and homes because of Putin. He dipped his toe in war and thought he could win that way. He refused to even call it “war”. Posted by: Hegar | Nov 10 2022 8:16 utc | 406 Please win Russia! Posted by: Smith | Nov 10 2022 8:18 utc | 407 Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:36 utc | 460
So, contrary to what a lot of NAFO trolls and their retarded hangers-on on this forum are claiming, there was no “fall of Kherson”. Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 10 2022 8:20 utc | 408 @Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 4:58 utc | 415
Apparently, you have such an obsession. Why the hype to cancel people? Maybe they are saying some truth? All commentators have something to contribute and all have some flaws, Martyanov included. Members of this bar are able to figure this out for themselves. Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 10 2022 8:21 utc | 409 Don Bacon @ 414
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 8:23 utc | 410 Sirovikin so far has lost more territory in 1 month than was gained in the last 7. Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 411 Posted by: averros | Nov 10 2022 7:15 utc | 444 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 412 Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 10 2022 2:49 utc | 355 Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Nov 10 2022 8:31 utc | 413 @Tenet | Nov 10 2022 7:21 utc | 447
So, with many Twitter posts, you suddenly have a lot of money to spare? Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 10 2022 8:45 utc | 414 From Larry Johnson Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:54 utc | 415 There is an army: Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:00 utc | 416 @ Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 478 Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 417
I think Mr. Martyanov is well informed and insightful. He has interesting insights into the mathematical nature of a land war, and he’s quite correct that the U.S. military has little expertise in a land war. Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 418 Once a Russian friend of mine told me that nobody should overestimate and also not underestimate Russia, as it is dangerous to do both. Posted by: whirlX | Nov 10 2022 9:13 utc | 419 Kherson was taken and held, primarily to guard Crimea. Posted by: lahire | Nov 10 2022 9:14 utc | 420 Guy L’Estrange @ 96
Or Grant, so maybe, but to paraphrase Freud, sometimes a clusterfuck is just a clusterfuck.
The Russians face a tactical goal, the Donbas, unfortunately in this case they also face a geo-strategic goal. The Donbas seems existential, the geo-strategic goal is.
Look up the picts of the aftermath. I’ve seem some car crashes in my time but nothing like this, both him and the truck must have been driving at 140kph and hit head on. So, I’d say something else. Unlikely the Russians, whatever his sins word would get out among the militias and be lethal to morale, likely an enemy car bomb or some very sophisticated UK drone hit, indicating infiltration within his circle that is best not talked about in public.
LOL You must be a New Yorker, or New Jersey. Surovikin was brought in to clean up the SMO clusterfuck, there’s a lot to clean up but most was about over extended lines with limited manpower. The Kearson retreat is the end of the SMO. Surovikin’s war and Russia directly against NATO (call it WW3) starts with whatever winter offensive comes up. From then on blame can fall on his bald pate, if you see him wearing a helmet fear the worst. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 9:15 utc | 421
I’m sure General Surovikin is very familiar with the history of the abandonment of Moscow in 1812 to Napoleon, which was a major factor leading to Napoleon’s defeat. Napoleon didn’t have to fight for Moscow, the Russian army and civilians retreated before he arrived. Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:18 utc | 422 US position on Kherson-
https://tass.com/politics/1533195 Posted by: Zanon | Nov 10 2022 9:18 utc | 423 The intensification of the information war that invariably happens in these situations (cf. Kharkov) is instructive. The most eloquent information warriors clearly show their cards, demonstrate what is in their minds and hearts. Not the war, but the information war. Posted by: veto | Nov 10 2022 9:19 utc | 424 Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 485 Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:19 utc | 425 I suggest the new moniker of “Baghdad Andrei” to collectively address the one sided Russia fanboy brigade. Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 9:20 utc | 426 question….. Posted by: harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 427 worth repeating in case it was missed
War is Hell. So is a SMO by the look of it. Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:37 utc | 428 @harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 496 Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2022 9:38 utc | 429 @ Arch Bungle Posted by: Tom UK (again) | Nov 10 2022 9:39 utc | 430
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19485 Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 9:40 utc | 431
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19489 Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 9:42 utc | 432 Best Quote of the Day Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:43 utc | 433 lahire @ 488
Sitting around the bar talking all options are viable, but if you’re betting a bottle of Remy for the crowd safe bet is to go with the simple explanation. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 9:49 utc | 434 Yuri Knutov – If HIMARS hit the locks, then a wave of 5 to 15 meters would completely wash away the coast and our first line of defense. Losses would be very serious. Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:51 utc | 435 harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 496 Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:52 utc | 436 I think it is not a bad decision. Posted by: Void-Infinite | Nov 10 2022 9:52 utc | 437 Evacuating the citizens to remove them from flooding danger, and reinforcing the defensive line on the side of the river you can reliably and more easily resupply look like the practical and strategic move to me. Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 10 2022 10:01 utc | 438 lahire | Nov 10 2022 9:14 utc | 488 Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 10 2022 10:02 utc | 439 Void-Infinite @ 506
“Think nothing, listen to the rustle of the autumn leaves” Joe Tzu. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:05 utc | 440 @506 Void-Infinite Posted by: Tom UK (again) | Nov 10 2022 10:14 utc | 441 Looks like the Jew-haters are out in force, trying hard to discredit this fine site with their heinous bile. Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 10 2022 10:19 utc | 442 Posted by: red | Nov 10 2022 10:12 utc | 511 Posted by: Paco | Nov 10 2022 10:24 utc | 443 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:43 utc | 502 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 10:28 utc | 444 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:51 utc | 504 Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 10:29 utc | 445 Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 10 2022 10:01 utc | 508 Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 10 2022 10:30 utc | 446 I liked how Kadyrov, from team Baldie, approved the retreat and at the same time blamed it on the previous leaders. Here’s the quote: Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 10:40 utc | 447 I think there is a deal in the works between the US and Russia. Pulling back from Kherson is part of that deal, that is not a military necessity. Russia will keep all other gained territories, but wont go further, eg Kharkov and Odessa wills tay Ukrainian. The US will go back to Russia’s proposal from december 2021: Pullback to end of Cold War lines wont happen, but further NATO enlargments wont happen neither, eg Georgia and Ukraine will be lost in a status quo ante. Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 10 2022 10:45 utc | 448 CM of Berlin @ 513
I like the primitive internet circa 1993 format of this forum, I’ve even grown to appreciate it’s pre HTML quality. Internet before the bozos piled in, before the corporate takeover, and before cancel culture. So with a sad heart I say this @red character should be banned. His relentless anti-Semitic crap is paid psyops to direct anti-Semitic google searches to this forum. To created a negative google social score and get MoA marginalized or one day soon black balled. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:51 utc | 449 1. Wars are fought to achieve political ends. Posted by: TGL | Nov 10 2022 10:55 utc | 450 By March 2023 Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts will be Ukrainians. Maybe during this Time the Russians will have advanced of 100 meters in Bakhmut Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 11:03 utc | 451 Peter AU1 | Nov 10 2022 7:42 utc | 462 Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 10 2022 11:08 utc | 452 Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:51 utc | 507 Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 10 2022 11:12 utc | 453 Future generations- supposing that they exist- will wonder at the effects that waves of computer games had on the minds of our population. Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 454 TGL@508 Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:19 utc | 455 1. Wars are fought to achieve political ends. Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 12:06 utc | 456 “When Putin finally realized that this is a war, not a “special operation,” it was far too late to call up the reserves.” Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 10 2022 12:31 utc | 457 USA has already lost. I live in the northeast USA. My heating bill has more than doubled and so has my electric bill. Forget about Europe. The USA is going to suffer a serious economic collapse this winter. Posted by: Kurt | Nov 10 2022 12:54 utc | 458 @rk #517 Posted by: OhhCanada | Nov 10 2022 13:12 utc | 459 Trolls having a second field day indeed. In March Russia was out of precision missiles, now they are out of “Iranian drones”, tomorrow they probably haven’t a single tank left….well whatever! But what I find hard to understand is why these nagging Xanthippe’s keep posting here, like mice running in the same threadmill perpetually. They must obviously get paid for it (somewhat, because I don’t believe their bosses are that generous), but what a life they lead: repeating the same stuff over and over again, looking at a little propaganda robot in the mirror. Well at what time did Goebbels realise that he couldn’t make his propaganda true, maybe in 1941 already or in 1942 at the very latest? He still kept going strongly for some time…So this may be dreadful: we may be stuck by all the trolls here for ages still – enough to sour all the wine in the bar one would fear…! OK, let’s ignore them and hope the Russians next winter have some mercy on our energy bills…they sure won’t have mercy on the American and Polish mercenaries in the Ukrainian mud… Posted by: Anthony | Nov 10 2022 13:33 utc | 460 bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 513 Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Nov 10 2022 13:41 utc | 461 @ red 481 Posted by: Rootman | Nov 10 2022 13:44 utc | 462 306 : “Right or left bank?” @401 The 1812 battle of Borodino was the deadliest ‘modern’ battle (French lost 30,000, the Russians 44,000) till the WW1. It was vicious affair Napoleon had to commit his reserve cavalry. The battle was a draw , basically, but the Russians did retreat so you can say it was a French victory , really a Pyric victory. @ bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 513 Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 10 2022 14:29 utc | 465 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 2:35 utc | 348 Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 14:38 utc | 466 RB | Nov 10 2022 14:38 utc | 527 Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 15:06 utc | 467 Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 4:29 utc | 407 Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 15:26 utc | 468
You are over analyzing things. When increases in population, innovation and productivity are no longer sufficient to grow the economy, destruction and rebuild are all that is left. Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 10 2022 16:58 utc | 469 Opport Knocks@530 Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 17:12 utc | 470 As to Don Keytale. We know this nasty piece of work of old. I had thought that he was dead. All that has changed is that he no longer has incredibly improbable Agatha Christie/kabuki explanations for political developments. Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 17:16 utc | 471 Don Keytale @514– Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 15:06 utc | 526 Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 18:31 utc | 473 The Russians have evacuated the remains of Prince Potemkin – just like the Nazis removed the remains of General Hindenburg from East Prussia in 1944. Posted by: paul | Nov 10 2022 19:37 utc | 474 During WW2, over 1943/4, the Germans fortified the Dnieper and formed a defensive line there. They hoped to halt the Russian advance on the Dnieper. But Russian forces just poured across it. It was no obstacle to them at all. Posted by: paul | Nov 10 2022 19:53 utc | 475
The economy was never in the “invisible hands of Providence”, it remains the product of billions of individual and collective decisions made every day. Marshalling the individuals to support a “master planned” collective is the essence of fascism, or at least a road to serfdom for the majority. Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 4:35 utc | 476 The most extraordinary story about Russian lack of resources is due to lack of foresight the contracts of tens of thousands of soldiers had been set up for voluntary reenlistment and everyone had made plans for other stuff in the meantime, so when the contracts expired and the army had to let them go. I don’t really have confirmation about it, just that some people who I take seriously believe it. Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Nov 11 2022 13:39 utc | 477 ⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (12 November 2022) Posted by: Summary | Nov 12 2022 12:15 utc | 478 The story I liked about the taking of Kherson was one I heard on the BBC, twice since yesterday, with suitable sound effects. Whereby the inhabitants of Kherson gathered round a large campfire clapping and dancing to welcome the Ukrainians (the BBC have a very smooth narrative, never falters for a moment). So, I asked myself, how many people can you fit around a single campfire, without people getting cold? A thousand or perhaps two at most. Of course the BBC never mentioned the numbers involved. Posted by: laguerre | Nov 12 2022 12:32 utc | 479 “road to serfdom for the majority” Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 12 2022 12:36 utc | 480 It seems at this point that Russia misjudged the difficulty of this war with this adversary as proxy for US. Also seems their war machine is somewhat less than was advertised – referring to rotation of generals. However the assessment remains that they have lots of margine for error. Posted by: jared | Nov 12 2022 15:42 utc | 481 Oops. Posted by: jared | Nov 12 2022 15:46 utc | 482 Does anyone out there study language? Noam Chomsky: The three views of language which shape instruction in reading and writing are the prescriptive, psycholinguistic, and sociolinguistic. Psycholinguistics is the study of the mental aspects of language and speech. It is primarily concerned with the ways in which language is represented and processed in the brain. Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 12 2022 15:55 utc | 484 |
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