Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

 

 

Comments

Giyane | Nov 10 2022 6:06 utc | 433
and
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 6:09 utc | 434
Gaud, tell me something I don’t know.
Yesterday I posted this …
Prime Minister Albanese has little understanding of regional issues
By Dennis Argall
Nov 7, 2022
https://johnmenadue.com/prime-minister-albanese-has-little-understanding-of-regional-issues/
– Why Labor can’t be trusted with Australia’s security. It started with US Marines in Darwin – Nov 8, 2022
https://johnmenadue.com/why-labor-cant-be-trusted-with-australias-security/
There are other views in Australia.
Deceased conservative Liberal PM Malcolm Fraser 75-83 in his last book : Dangerous Allies
Malcolm Fraser, Cain Roberts – We need the US for defence, but we only need defence because of the US He argues for an end to strategic dependence and for the timely establishment of a truly independent Australia.
https://www.mup.com.au/books/dangerous-allies-electronic-book-text
And that stalwart dte Labor man, Paul Keating
‘our strategic sovereignty is being outsourced to another country, the US’
By John Menadue Oct 19, 2022
https://johnmenadue.com/paul-keating-has-warned-us-that-our-strategic-sovereignty-is-being-outsourced-to-another-country-the-us/
Australia’s strategic interests, alliances and standing up for ourselves
By John Menadue Oct 14, 2022
https://johnmenadue.com/a-conversation-with-paul-keating-australias-strategic-interests-alliances-and-standing-up-for-itself/
Keating has often in interviews straight up called all those in the govt intel security military bodies and ” think tanks” as crazed lunatics leading us to war and poverty. That they should all be told to shut up and get out the way. There is nothing to be afraid of in China except treating like enemies in the first place when they are not.
Paul Keating calls for more independent Australian foreign policy …
10 Nov 2016 … Australia should develop an independent policy towards China and focus more on Indonesia and south-east Asia, such as by joining Asean.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/nov/10/paul-keating-calls-for-more-independent-australian-foreign-policy-after-us-election
Posted by: SeanAU | November 08, 2022 at 11:40 146
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/the-moa-week-in-review-not-ukraine-ot-2022-191/comments/page/2/#comments

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:00 utc | 401

What is next?
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 10 2022 7:44 utc | 463

Everybody goes broke having irreparably destroyed their going businesses.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2022 8:06 utc | 402

@Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 5:20 utc | 427
Yeah right. Since when did your overinflated opinion about anything matter to me or anyone else?

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:07 utc | 403

Even I ,an armchair general , would have expected this potentiality occurring ie US entering the war. If so, why did Russia have an SMO at all? You either have a plan , or you shut up and take it. I know Russia relies on bluff as does the US , but surely we need more than just bluff to be relatively likely to win a war. Yes, wars have been won just on bluff ,but you sure hope you have a good chance of winning or causing your enemy a lot of pain ,BEFORE you start firing a shot in anger.
Way too many mistakes for my liking , the main one being fighting with one arm tied behind your back- maybe not any fatal, but in combination? A death of a thousand cuts that may bring Russia to its knees and us reasonable sincere barflies with it .

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 10 2022 8:08 utc | 404

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are concentrating their efforts on reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region and holding the occupied territory.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 7:56 utc | 465
They have been saying that on and off for 9 months now. And daily for the last 2 weeks.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’ll believe it when Zelensky formally surrenders and resigns as President (or is taken out in a coup and the Military Generals surrender instead.)
I’ll believe when the US / NATO stop sending arms and military forces to Ukraine, and sign a Treaty document with Russia like they asked for last December.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:14 utc | 405

The people in Kherson have lost their jobs and homes because of Putin. He dipped his toe in war and thought he could win that way. He refused to even call it “war”.
“We prioritize the lives of our soldiers” means “we don’t give a shit about anyone else who gets caught in this”.
Until this fall, all the fighting in Donbass was done by the men in Donbass. The Russians only handled artillery.

Posted by: Hegar | Nov 10 2022 8:16 utc | 406

Please win Russia!
Please win, for the sake of the world!

Posted by: Smith | Nov 10 2022 8:18 utc | 407

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:36 utc | 460

What is noteworthy about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson is that it was not done under fire or attack. It was calm and orderly an apparently was pre-planned. Perhaps this explains the rumors that circulated a few weeks back that Russia was going to leave Kherson city.

So, contrary to what a lot of NAFO trolls and their retarded hangers-on on this forum are claiming, there was no “fall of Kherson”.
There is an army:
– intact,
– unharmed,
– undefeated in actual battle
repositioning itself very close to the city for reasons that will unfold clearly within the coming week.
What the demented ADH-afflicted drama queens who keep wailing about the mythical “fall of Kherson” are too retarded to ask is:
“What happens if the AFU moves into Kherson City? What next”

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 10 2022 8:20 utc | 408

@Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 4:58 utc | 415

What is this obsession with Martyanov. ?

Apparently, you have such an obsession. Why the hype to cancel people? Maybe they are saying some truth? All commentators have something to contribute and all have some flaws, Martyanov included. Members of this bar are able to figure this out for themselves.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 10 2022 8:21 utc | 409

Don Bacon @ 414

@ LightYearsFromHome – The trolls are throwing their shit like monkeys from a cage
So you’re in a cage?

I’m not a monkey, just a visitor. It’s feeding time, here’s a banana.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 8:23 utc | 410

Sirovikin so far has lost more territory in 1 month than was gained in the last 7.
General… Amrageddon-outta here!
Jokes aside, I am sure there must be some very competent generals angered at both the current situation and how they got there. The biggest problem i see Russia having now is that the guy who made most of the bad decisions must be Putin, and that is the one guy who they can’t get rid of in the middle of a major war against the combined West.
In true Russian tradition, they will either win to the last wasted Russian soldier after stumbling their way from blunder to blunder, relying more on their sheer size and guts than their brains like in WW2, or lose miserably and then execute the ones who were deemed responsible for it like after WW1.
Here is another guy who agrees the whole bridge and manpower strategy was more than a bit retarded:
https://anti-empire.com/kherson-humiliation-ukraine-schools-russia-in-effectivness-of-war-on-bridges/

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 411

Posted by: averros | Nov 10 2022 7:15 utc | 444
“And if you want something better than corporatism (aka state capitalism) read Murray Rothbard.”
Correct.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 8:18 utc | 472
“I’m just an old, grumpy, idealistic, irritable, depressed insomniac.”
So am I.
Also, Martyanov deflected from responding to my points, as I knew he would. He seized on one sentence and dismissed me like he does everyone. Well, in my case, this is not acceptable. I made specific points and if he can’t answer them, he’s doing copium, I don’t care how much knowledge he has about operational art (which I respect greatly – but not at the expense of bullshit.)

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 412

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 10 2022 2:49 utc | 355
Peter, I think we must amend these wonderful maxims of Mr Putin, to more reflect his actual behaviour:
1)If a fight is inevitable, declare some red lines that you never intend to enforce, then lead with a limp-wristed pansy slap and wait while your antagonist winds up to belt you one – 2)Never corner a rat unless you are prepared to jump comically high as you allow it to escape, and end up in a heap on the floor with everyone pissing their pants laughing at you while you try to pretend nothing happened.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Nov 10 2022 8:31 utc | 413

@Tenet | Nov 10 2022 7:21 utc | 447

a PR victory will lead to more and more Western funding for Ukraine.

So, with many Twitter posts, you suddenly have a lot of money to spare?
There is something called reality lurking here. Btw., nice palindrome moniker.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 10 2022 8:45 utc | 414

From Larry Johnson
incl: “What is noteworthy about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson is that it was not done under fire or attack. It was calm and orderly and apparently was pre-planned.”
https://sonar21.com/ukraine-is-not-an-episode-of-ukraines-got-talent/
Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:36 utc | 460
I realize this frustrates the dickens out of Larry Johnson et al, plus many on MoA and elsewhere, but the facts of the matter are the global audience is going to say what they want to say about what the Russians are doing or not doing in Ukraine and they are never going to stop.
Not only that but this global audience already knows General Surovikin doesn’t give a rats about their opinions. They aren’t totally stupid!
Furthermore, what is noteworthy about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson is that it happened!
Larry Johnson and all the other Bloggers, TV Talking heads, Interview Guests, Telegrammers and commenters in the world do not get to Vote for who says what about Ukraine, the Russian Military, Putin, or anyone else in public life. All open season for commentary by the Hoi Polloi!
People make up their own minds and they will decide what they think is important enough for them to comment on. Not Larry.
People already know Larry Johnson and the rest of the ‘so-called’ Professional Military / Geopolitical Analysts actually aren’t necessarily ‘professional’ in the normal sense of that word, with the exception of them being paid in some form for speaking on the topic.
And just like the rest of us ‘lowly amateurs’ they are not privy either to the military plans of the Russian military high command! All Opinions, Second Guesses and Predictions are on an Equal footing in this crazy new world disorder.
The Dictionary says about Professional:
– having the qualities that you connect with trained and skilled people, such as effectiveness, skill, organization, and seriousness of manner:
– having the type of job that is respected because it involves a high level of education and training:
Synonyms for Hoi Polloi include “the plebs” (plebeians), “the rabble”, “the masses”, “the great unwashed”, “riffraff”, and “the proles” (proletarians).
Cheers with my best wishes to the great unwashed plebians on MoA.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 8:54 utc | 415

There is an army:
– intact,
– unharmed,
– undefeated in actual battle
repositioning itself very close to the city for reasons that will unfold clearly within the coming week.
Arch Bungle | Nov 10 2022 8:20 utc | 474
Thousands died for nothing, it’s far from intact or unharmed. Even 1:10 ratio is embarrassing. This isn’t a tactical move, it’s surrender. They’re not going back and it won’t be the last retreat.
The combination of retards (I hope not traitors) in general staff and government shows that nato can easily defeat Russia without using their own soldiers and modern weapons.
Please name a single thing Russia achieved after almost a year. Don’t say economic pressure on EU because that is purely EU’s own mistake. Don’t say it’s draining nato weapons because most of them were Soviet and US is already selling replacements at great profit. The killed nazis are also the result of idiots in nato, forcing them to attack until the last one.
So show me something that was created by a Russian general and that was successful in Ukr, achieved some goal. Show me where are the new 300k recruits and what is the result of their work. “training”, right…
“Russia’s latest decision to pull its forces back from Kherson is a positive moment (…) Turkey will continue its mediation efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine” – Erdogan.

Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:00 utc | 416

@ Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 8:25 utc | 478
I think you placed too much faith in good old AM
I can’t be bothered digging it up, but in one of his videos he said that Nordstream could have been blown up with a little as 5 KG of explosives. I don’t know what sort of Naval Officer would say such stupid things, but as far as operational art, it was clear to me that the guy is a bit of a fraud ;
For all its ‘terrible’ and ‘inferior’ weapons, it seems Nato is doing just fine at embarrassing Russia by proxy, and we can be grateful that is all it wants to do for now. Funny how for all the claims of Nato gear getting wrecked, no one ever mentioned that Russia has lost 10-20% of key air assets like Ka-52, Su-34 and Su-25.
What happened to plans of the Russian air force mowing down Ukraine’s advance across the Kherson steppes, wasn’t it supposed to be a suicide mission? Or all those fancy satellites and stand off weapons that somehow can’t effectively stop weapons and men coming to the front for months now?
We can also add all his claims that Ukraine would be destroyed in days.. that Russia doesn’t even sweat about Nato.. but somehow fails to deal appropriately with its half baked proxy, or honour any of its threats, over and over, or that Russians understand continental warfare while all the Americans had to do to stop them so far was bomb 2 bridges on the Dniepr and dig some trenches in Donbass, all achieved with far inferior means and no air force .. i could go on.

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 417

What is this obsession with Martyanov. ?
He has proven himself an ill-informed, irascible, irrelevant, almost certainly irredeemably flatulent, old fart.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 4:58 utc | 415

I think Mr. Martyanov is well informed and insightful. He has interesting insights into the mathematical nature of a land war, and he’s quite correct that the U.S. military has little expertise in a land war.
Yes, he’s irascible (and quite amusing), certainly not irrelevant, and with age comes wisdom (and he often expresses wisdom).

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 418

Once a Russian friend of mine told me that nobody should overestimate and also not underestimate Russia, as it is dangerous to do both.
I think that NATO is not really aware of that advice and now, as it was expected, it is intensifying its bashing of RF and celebrating Ukrainian ‘victory’. Narrative building right now is underestimation of RF and its military.
In general, RF is a major loser, and they are finished, as it is just a matter of time until RF crumbles down.
It doesn’t get more retarded than this, but knowing the modus so far – it probably can and will.
A withdrawal from left bank is not a trap and a decision to move military out of west bank is a correct one.
That terrain is difficult, flat, wet, and swampy as it goes.
It is much better to have troops to concentrate on really important tasks than being stuck there draining resources and having difficult and troublesome logistic.
I doubt that Ukrainians will move all the way down to the river banks or even to Kherson.
Surely there will be some Ukrainian flag waving, but overall, nothing much of a gain or a use, kind of Snake Island status.
If any RF offensive commences in the next few weeks, as in escalation, it will happen from the East and North.

Posted by: whirlX | Nov 10 2022 9:13 utc | 419

Kherson was taken and held, primarily to guard Crimea.
That even Kadyrov and Prigozhin can see that, is my guess.
Surovikin did put this move (pulling out of Kherson) on the table as his precondition to accept to take over as head of the Ukrainian theater. So this does not come as a surprise, even if it doesn’t add up (in my mind at least).
That the US might have successfully blackmailed (or bargained) Russia into doing this, is wild guess at this point. Doesn’t sound plausible.
Other obvious explanation is the simple one : impossibility to hold the position any longer. Everyone can accept that. As a fact. If this is as things stand on the ground.
Only, this explanation doesn’t tally with the Russian new commander hinting very strongly at it a month ago.

Posted by: lahire | Nov 10 2022 9:14 utc | 420

Guy L’Estrange @ 96

I rather like this move. It’s all Kutusov.

Or Grant, so maybe, but to paraphrase Freud, sometimes a clusterfuck is just a clusterfuck.

Territory doesn’t count, armies do. I expect the Yanks, and the Brits and the Ukis will be beside themselves with delight and will want to press on to Moscow. While the Russians will simply concentrate on freeing the remainder of the Donbas- like they said they wanted to do at the start.

The Russians face a tactical goal, the Donbas, unfortunately in this case they also face a geo-strategic goal. The Donbas seems existential, the geo-strategic goal is.
cirsium @| 92

Kiril Stremousov, the outspoken Deputy Head of Kherson, has been killed in a car accident. Just a coincidence or something else?

Look up the picts of the aftermath. I’ve seem some car crashes in my time but nothing like this, both him and the truck must have been driving at 140kph and hit head on. So, I’d say something else. Unlikely the Russians, whatever his sins word would get out among the militias and be lethal to morale, likely an enemy car bomb or some very sophisticated UK drone hit, indicating infiltration within his circle that is best not talked about in public.
Et Tu @477

Sirovikin so far has lost more territory in 1 month than was gained in the last 7. General… Amrageddon-outta here!

LOL You must be a New Yorker, or New Jersey. Surovikin was brought in to clean up the SMO clusterfuck, there’s a lot to clean up but most was about over extended lines with limited manpower. The Kearson retreat is the end of the SMO. Surovikin’s war and Russia directly against NATO (call it WW3) starts with whatever winter offensive comes up. From then on blame can fall on his bald pate, if you see him wearing a helmet fear the worst.
Maybe is a ruse, maybe it’s a truce or peace treaty. Most likely it is what it is, a constrained military doing the best it can to live and fight another day.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 9:15 utc | 421

Napoleon took Moscow, waited for the Czar to surrender & then Moscow burned with no word from the Czar.
Only 2 of every 12 French soldiers made it home.
Posted by: Triple X MagnumMAGA | Nov 10 2022 5:00 utc | 416

I’m sure General Surovikin is very familiar with the history of the abandonment of Moscow in 1812 to Napoleon, which was a major factor leading to Napoleon’s defeat. Napoleon didn’t have to fight for Moscow, the Russian army and civilians retreated before he arrived.
The temporary abandonment of Kherson seems to be a similar strategy, and will similarly lead to the defeat of Ukraine.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:18 utc | 422

US position on Kherson-
7 days ago:
Ukraine Capable of Retaking Kherson From Russia -Pentagon Chief
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-03/ukraine-has-capability-to-retake-kherson-from-russia-pentagon-chief
US, NATO believe talks on Ukraine possible if Kiev takes Kherson — newspaper

The main point is that the return of Kherson, a strategic target from the point of view of gaining sea access and control over water resources may change the course of the conflict and when the city is taken it will be possible to hold negotiations from the position of force

https://tass.com/politics/1533195

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 10 2022 9:18 utc | 423

The intensification of the information war that invariably happens in these situations (cf. Kharkov) is instructive. The most eloquent information warriors clearly show their cards, demonstrate what is in their minds and hearts. Not the war, but the information war.
Their triumph is not about what is happening on the ground, but concerns the battle against the pro-Russian analysts. See, we have won, they say, against Larry, Smoothie, Saker, b. People will see, people will think, that we are right! We earn our pay.
Unfortunately, for you, no. The battle is not about minds anymore. What we do and say here mean little or nothing to Russia, China, India, RoW, and even the West. It does not matter what people think. In weeks, they will have forgotten. You won’t win against reality with words anymore.

Posted by: veto | Nov 10 2022 9:19 utc | 424

Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:02 utc | 485
He’s just selling his books and begging for donations. Lately he doesn’t even talk about Ukr anymore.
He isn’t spreading fakes like others, I agree with most things but he only talks about theory and he can’t have a dialogue, he only likes to talk alone about fiction.
In practice, in the past weeks, the Russian strikes have become rare, yesterday I couldn’t find any reported. Since Baldie took control it looks like they’ve stopped fighting, only some isolated Wagner and other very small groups fight. Some say they’re waiting for winter, training the mobilized or other stories. It’s possible but all signs are going in another direction, that soon Putin will say the operation has ended, we’ve demilitarized Ukr enough, good bye.

Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:19 utc | 425

I suggest the new moniker of “Baghdad Andrei” to collectively address the one sided Russia fanboy brigade.
Feel free to use it and see if it catches on.
It honours the proto war bs artist “Baghdad Bob” aka former Gulf War Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, while using the first name of the 2 worst known offenders in the blogosphere.

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 10 2022 9:20 utc | 426

question…..
is it possible to take Odessa from the sea and link with transnistra and flank kherson?
Are the Russians using the weather/big freeze…to manufacture cheap drones in huge numbers?

Posted by: harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 427

worth repeating in case it was missed
#Donetsk Direction:
▪️ AFU militants shelled the #Donetsk agglomeration once again. The capital of the DPR, #Makeevka, #Gorlovka, #Staromikhailovka, #Golmovsky and #Yakovlevka were attacked.
▪️ After yesterday’s AFU attack on a power substation in #Yasynuvata, authorities called on citizens to limit electricity consumption and said they are prepared to introduce regular rolling blackouts.
The Russian Military cannot protect citizens or infrastructure of Russia from ongoing Ukraine attacks. Not in Donetsk, not in Crimea, not in Belgorod, and not in Luhansk nor in Kherson.

Sergei Surovikin said that the RF Armed Forces are resisting all attempts to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction, the enemy has suffered heavy losses. Russian air defense systems shoot down up to 80-90% of enemy missiles in the Kherson direction, but 20% of them still reach their targets.
From August to October, the Russian army have lost (approx 1,900 people) in the Kherson defense. AFU maybe 9500.
More than 115 thousand people left the area of ​​hostilities in the Kherson region.
https://t-me.translate.goog/rybar/41018?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

War is Hell. So is a SMO by the look of it.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:37 utc | 428

@harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 496
PLA bridges the Yangtze in 26 minutes ==>https://youtu.be/dzzD-cQRpl0
A huge sustained logistics and engineering effort is required to cross the Dnieper.

Posted by: too scents | Nov 10 2022 9:38 utc | 429

@ Arch Bungle
Putin has fought and won more wars than any leader alive today.
You are saying Putin is a warmonger? Just what the world neither needs nor wants 🙂
Oh, and my posts were blocked from showing a while back after I posted that it looks like the Russians would fall back from Kherson and Ukraine would take the city. Seems karma is a bitch. Wonder if this post will make it?

Posted by: Tom UK (again) | Nov 10 2022 9:39 utc | 430

We don’t need a Pyrrhic victory
Military expert Yuri Knutov on the correctness of our tactics:
▪️I fully agree with the decision. If HIMARS hit the locks, then a wave of 5 to 15 meters would completely wash away the coast and our first line of defense. Losses would be very serious. The Antonovsky bridge and the bridge at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station were put out of action. That is, the supply of heavy artillery and ammunition is no longer possible. There are pontoon bridges. If the wave washes them away too, our troops will be cut off and doomed to destruction. So why do we need a Pyrrhic victory?
▪️In any case, the enemy will be able to repeat the offensive operation. Now we have retreated to the higher left bank. Our troops will be able to hold the defense with smaller forces. We will shell the territory occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the right bank. Our military will continue to process them with aircraft and artillery. With smaller forces, we will hold the line of the Dnieper and inflict even greater losses on the enemy.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19485

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 9:40 utc | 431

Yuri Podolyaka on the situation on the fronts:
– It is very difficult to fight across the Dnieper. The main battles will now fall on the section from Ugledar to Svatov. The front of active hostilities will be reduced. Both we and the enemy will transfer their troops. Our weak point is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine operate on domestic operational lines. It will take a week for the Ukrainians to transfer troops from Kharkov to Kherson. We need 3-4 weeks for this. Maneuvering, the enemy always has an advantage
– If we stabilize Kherson along the left bank, the advantage in communications will go away. Now we are surrendering the city, but we are getting the opportunity for new strikes this winter. Artillery and drones will continue to operate. There is no point in aviation in passive sections

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19489

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 9:42 utc | 432

Best Quote of the Day
“I’m not Marshall Zhukov but I know idiocy when I see it.”
Anti-Empire.com

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:43 utc | 433

lahire @ 488

Other obvious explanation is the simple one : impossibility to hold the position any longer. Everyone can accept that. As a fact. If this is as things stand on the ground.

Sitting around the bar talking all options are viable, but if you’re betting a bottle of Remy for the crowd safe bet is to go with the simple explanation.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 9:49 utc | 434

Yuri Knutov – If HIMARS hit the locks, then a wave of 5 to 15 meters would completely wash away the coast and our first line of defense. Losses would be very serious.
Down South | Nov 10 2022 9:40 utc | 500
That has been the case in Kherson since February. It didn’t suddenly happen last month or since the referendums.
So what were they doing there in the first place and without a proper defense including at the dam? It’s looking more like a Fawlty Towers episode every day.
“Whatever you do Polly, don’t mention the Ukrainians. I did once but I think I got away with it.”

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:51 utc | 435

harryash | Nov 10 2022 9:28 utc | 496
They can’t do anyting from the sea, too many mines and drones and anti-ship missiles. Another retarded Russian general lost Moskva that way. No one will go to Odessa, there’s no need to talk about it.
China, Turkey and probably India will milk Russia for everything for free/cheap now. Russia simply moved from being a slave for West to a slave for East.
And where is that proof about UK and NS1/2? Did they exchange silence for something already? Or it wasn’t real?

Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 9:52 utc | 436

I think it is not a bad decision.
1) Till the actual withdrawal, Ukraine will try to attack and will get slaughtered.
2) Once done, the Russian southwestern front will be secured behind the Dnieper.
3) A large number of forces shall be released for better utilization elsewhere.
4) I would then expect Russian thrusts: a) from Belgorod towards Poltava-Krasnohrad cutting off Kharov, b) from Zaporizhzhia frontline to Zaporizhzhia and further to Dnipro, c) General Advance on all fronts. This would completely cut off the major Ukranian army group east of Dniper. Perhaps secondary thrusts on the Sumy-Chernihiv sector. Since Ukraine will be hard pressed, they will shift most of the troops from the Kherson sector to help stem the Russian advances – giving Russians the opportunity to push for Odessa bypassing Mykolaiv.
BUT – lets see.

Posted by: Void-Infinite | Nov 10 2022 9:52 utc | 437

Evacuating the citizens to remove them from flooding danger, and reinforcing the defensive line on the side of the river you can reliably and more easily resupply look like the practical and strategic move to me.
I would anticipate a lot of AFU vehicles are going to be taking a quick trip into the city’s sewers when they roll into town.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 10 2022 10:01 utc | 438

lahire | Nov 10 2022 9:14 utc | 488
“Surovikin did put this move (pulling out of Kherson) on the table as his precondition to accept to take over as head of the Ukrainian theater. So this does not come as a surprise, even if it doesn’t add up (in my mind at least).”
He sure did. (As many of us suspected he meant by “make difficult decisions”, only to be called “trolls” in projection by the Yes-men who furiously denied the Russians ever would abandon Kherson; just yesterday morning they were still doing that.)
It meant that in his mind, from day one of his tenure, he already was retreating.
Contrarian_Ed | Nov 10 2022 9:18 utc | 490
“General Surovikin is very familiar with the history of the abandonment of Moscow in 1812 to Napoleon, which was a major factor leading to Napoleon’s defeat. Napoleon didn’t have to fight for Moscow, the Russian army and civilians retreated before he arrived.
The temporary abandonment of Kherson seems to be a similar strategy, and will similarly lead to the defeat of Ukraine.”

Of course Alexander was committed to victory and, as part of this commitment, was 100% certain there would be no negotiation (Napoleon’s war goal was to compel the tsar to the negotiation table; he sat there waiting in Moscow for weeks, increasingly nonplussed). Putin by contrast, whatever his commitment or lack thereof, has made clear his indelible urge to “negotiate”. For that and many other reasons, this comparison to 1812 begs the question of commitment to victory, defined as attainment of the stated war goals of full Borderland demilitarization, denazification and neutrality.
The secret deal many commenters are hypothesizing would completely abrogate these goals and even hand over large chunks of Russian territory. An abject, humiliating defeat for Russia which would generate the perfect conditions for empire-driven regime change in Russia, since after this debacle who in Russia would bother lifting a finger against it?

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 10 2022 10:02 utc | 439

Void-Infinite @ 506

I think it is not a bad decision.

“Think nothing, listen to the rustle of the autumn leaves” Joe Tzu.
It’s a very pragmatic decision, without knowing the inside details but knowing the value of what RF is giving up I’d say it was their only option, Surovikin appears to have seen it from his first day on the job, which is a good sign. Whether this pragmatic decision pays off or just continues a list of failures is anyone’s guess. For now observers only have their sentiments.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:05 utc | 440

@506 Void-Infinite
You realise that none of what you outlined is going to happen, right?
I appreciate that most on here are looking for ‘positives’, but the reality is the reality. The Russians are pulling out of Kherson because they cannot hold or defend Kherson. They are reducing their defensive line to make it more compact. Russia will not be launching offensives as they do not have the capability to do so. Russia will look to hold onto some of the captured territory and push for negotiations which allows them to present some kind of ‘victory’.
For Russia, the purpose of the SMO right now is damage limitation.

Posted by: Tom UK (again) | Nov 10 2022 10:14 utc | 441

Looks like the Jew-haters are out in force, trying hard to discredit this fine site with their heinous bile.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 10 2022 10:19 utc | 442

Posted by: red | Nov 10 2022 10:12 utc | 511
Quit that hate baiting BS, it only works for the Palestine occupiers. First of all you’re no red, your mr. Brown the color of a stinking turd, second, better inform yourself about Russian family names, Surovikin has nothing to do with your employers.
суровый прил
severe inclement
тяжелый, ненастный
harsh hard rigid cruel fierce
жесткий, жестокий
stern
строгий

Posted by: Paco | Nov 10 2022 10:24 utc | 443

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:43 utc | 502
Exactly.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 10:28 utc | 444

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 9:51 utc | 504
Also exactly.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 10:29 utc | 445

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 10 2022 10:01 utc | 508
The flooding threat is way over now. The Russians have had ample time to remove the excess water before the Ukros cause dam destruction . I remember the exact dates being mentioned at the time at which point flooding from a destroyed dam would be way too unlikely.
Posted by: Void-Infinite | Nov 10 2022 9:52 utc | 506
We have heard that many a time. The ukies will get slaughtered. We heard they will be slaughtered once the Russians left Kiev, we heard they would be slaughtered once they left Kharkov, Liman etc Now we hear they will be slaughtered at Kherson. The cauldrons will boil them … yet it never happens. Sure ,we hear about all these Ukies being slaughtered yet new armies of ukies appear out of nowhere. Why ?

Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 10 2022 10:30 utc | 446

I liked how Kadyrov, from team Baldie, approved the retreat and at the same time blamed it on the previous leaders. Here’s the quote:
“Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly ”
Following the same logic Zap. and Donetsk should be given too. Has anyone seen the great social media warrior Medvedev recently? Did he ran out of lies?

Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 10:40 utc | 447

I think there is a deal in the works between the US and Russia. Pulling back from Kherson is part of that deal, that is not a military necessity. Russia will keep all other gained territories, but wont go further, eg Kharkov and Odessa wills tay Ukrainian. The US will go back to Russia’s proposal from december 2021: Pullback to end of Cold War lines wont happen, but further NATO enlargments wont happen neither, eg Georgia and Ukraine will be lost in a status quo ante.
Ukraine will be the biggest loser, 100k dead, power grid destroyed, economically done. Ppl will flee from the country to either Russia or EU. It will be a wasteland. Second loser will be EU, since Russian natural gas and oil wont come back. BRICS is emerging and these markets will get Russian commodities, especially China and India. EU will be priced out from world markets, since they cant produce goods as cheap as China or even US.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 10 2022 10:45 utc | 448

CM of Berlin @ 513

Looks like the Jew-haters are out in force, trying hard to discredit this fine site with their heinous bile.

I like the primitive internet circa 1993 format of this forum, I’ve even grown to appreciate it’s pre HTML quality. Internet before the bozos piled in, before the corporate takeover, and before cancel culture. So with a sad heart I say this @red character should be banned. His relentless anti-Semitic crap is paid psyops to direct anti-Semitic google searches to this forum. To created a negative google social score and get MoA marginalized or one day soon black balled.
For now the psyops program is to make it impossible to recommend or fwd this forum to friends as it makes you look like a top rank asshole. The state operatives here are bottom of the rung $7.25hr telemarketing equivalents, those not even talented enough to sell frankfurters on the street, but at the top the deep state is clever it finds a use for everyone even imbeciles and losers. Maybe that’s why it wins century after century.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:51 utc | 449

1. Wars are fought to achieve political ends.
2. Battlefield tactical events are not wars and no, they do not make wars.
3. Logistics, industrial economy, political support of allies, munitioms and morale–not territorial turnover–are critical for maintaining the operational supremacy and escalatory dominance required to leverage combined arms war to achieve a political end.
When you hold in your mind at once these three laws of war, it is clear who is “winning in Ukraine.”

Posted by: TGL | Nov 10 2022 10:55 utc | 450

By March 2023 Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts will be Ukrainians. Maybe during this Time the Russians will have advanced of 100 meters in Bakhmut
Posted by: Abeille Flandres | Nov 9 2022 22:16 utc | 250
How do you think the Ukrainians will deal with the local population there? Terror campaign like Israel in 1948 to force the majority to run east?

Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 11:03 utc | 451

Peter AU1 | Nov 10 2022 7:42 utc | 462
Interesting take. The freebies have to run out sometime for the ukies.
That would mean than the Corporation/Oligarchs, have decided that they are not going to get the profits they had imagined, and worse, from now on a black (green shirted) hole cannot deliver. The only ones still profiting from the Ukrainian war are the US Military/industrial complex.
Done deal in Ukraine? I am not sure, yet it may be possible. If so the recent attacks on food and fuel supplies to Lebanon via Syria, and on a fuel tanker with free oil off Lebanon (30 dead?), possibly by Israeli F-35’s (plus US Embassy statements), are signs that the Israelis are trying to keep the US on board for future wars in the middle east. “Agreements” with Russia might start a trend.
So a “pivot” to China may still not yet be on the cards?

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 10 2022 11:08 utc | 452

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 10 2022 10:51 utc | 507
Well said!

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 10 2022 11:12 utc | 453

Future generations- supposing that they exist- will wonder at the effects that waves of computer games had on the minds of our population.
Never having played any of them I am not in a position to do anything more than guess that they tend to erase moral sensibilities and lead to an obsession with short term outcomes.
I have not read all of the posts in this thread but I have read enough to notice the childish outrage from commenters who feel let down by Russia’s refusal to deliver them the swift and decisive battlefield outcomes that would allow them to howl “I told you so!!” in the ears of those-family, perhaps, or colleagues at work or playschool who have been slightly less critical in their absorption of NATO propaganda.
In Belgium yesterday there was a nationwide strike -see Gilbert Doctorow- protesting against the burgeoning and west wide depression. It was not a General Strike, the Unions are cautious to the point of political impotence and reluctant to contradict the Mighty Wurlitzer, but those are coming.
They would be here already were it not for the sterling work of social democrats and business union bureaucrats in promoting imperialism. But strikes are coming, as are changes in a political landscape in which the traditional working class movement has been taken over and hollowed out by imperialist agents and ideology.
The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine is not finally decided. But the context within which it will be is political- the working people of the NATO countries and their allies have been told that they must be prepared, out of solidarity with others, to make sacrifices for the suffering people of Ukraine. The extent of those sacrifices is only now beginning to become apparent. The blank cheques signed on behalf of every family in Europe are starting to be debited from household accounts. And this is just a beginning- the heating bills, the costs of personal transport and the mark up on everything in the supermarket aisles.
Next will come the adjustments needed to cover the costs of the hundreds of billions being pumped into the warzone in the form of arms, munitions, personnel and such services as training or, for that matter, the avalanches of propaganda in which society wallows. Signs of what this will amount to can be seen in central bank ‘responses’ to inflation.
Already the effects of higher mortgage rates can be seen in declining house prices- a mixed blessing in that they imply large capital losses to homeowners while being of little benefit to home buyers with mortgages. It is a lose, lose situation for all but the rentiers.
This in its turn is going to lead to depressed demand and either unemployment or rapidly declining living standards.
All of which, and more, are bound to lead to disillusionment regarding the war. The Butcher’s Bill is beginning to add up: of actual dead and wounded there are, as yet, very few. But there will be deaths, large numbers of them, as access to healthcare and adequate diets decline quickly, as the quality of ‘care’ programmes falls in the form of less cleaning, less nursing hours, quicker ‘pull the plug’ decision making. All through society services will become more expensive, less accessible. Education will cost more. The vast panoply of ‘privatised’ sub-contracted services, from prisons to probation services, will be subject to ‘economies’ as the need to maintain profits requires cutbacks and cheaper purchases just as prices are rising.
We are only scratching at the surface. And while it is possible that a stoic populace will simply steel itself to suffer for the innocent victims that Zelensky leads and the Azov Brigades drill into obedience, it is more likely that increasing numbers will blame ‘the war’ for their troubles- the higher prices in the market, the unavailability of surgical procedures, the need to postpone long anticipated vacations or retirement, the sacrificing of a University education in order to earn a living…
Wars, in the final analysis, are about much more than battles and positional jockeying, they are about the willingness and capacity to support armies and to supply them and reinforce them.
What this means in the current conflict is that the real questions have to so with what Russians feel about the war-do they see it as crucial to their future? Do they see it as having been forced upon them by their enemies? Or do they see it as ‘Putin’s war’? I suspect that they know better, and that, if they don’t, the truth will become apparent.
And that the opposite is the case in the “west.” Here it will become increasingly clear that far from wanting war, Putin and Russia did everything in their power-short of surrender and suicide- to prevent war. And that everything-perhaps too much- has been done to mitigate its pain.
People in the west will come to see, as reality forces them to think about the causes of their problems, that far from being an embattled ‘democracy’ the state that they are sacrificing so much to save, is a sordid rathole of fascists and criminal kleptocrats drooling over the ‘aid’ they get from NATO. That, far from being a persecuted minority, victimised by Russian chauvinism, they are a nasty gang of bullies torturing people for speaking their own languages and killing any daring to protest.
There comes a point-some will remember it from Vietnam- when all the propaganda in the world dissolves into reality. When the Imperial wardrobe becomes obscenely transparent and the actual nature of the powers that be, hideous and impotent, is revealed.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 454

TGL@508
You said it better! And taking up much less space.
LightYearsFromHome @507
Reluctantly, I agree. I detest censorship. I believe that ‘Red’ reveals his fellow thinkers to be idiots. And that it is a vital part of our education to read, understand and reject such stiff.
But you are right- these are provocations designed to smear the site.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:19 utc | 455

1. Wars are fought to achieve political ends.
2. Battlefield tactical events are not wars
3. Logistics, industrial economy, political support of allies, munitions and morale–not territorial turnover–are critical for maintaining the operational supremacy
When you hold in your mind at once these three laws of war, it is clear who is “winning in Ukraine.”
Posted by: TGL | Nov 10 2022 10:55 utc | 508
1 – Putin had no political reason, it was demilitarization of Ukr. He failed and now there’s terrorism added to artillery. Nato wanted a political end, destabilize Russia for many decades and regime change. So far it worked and regime change will come.
2 – If all battles are failures the war will also fail. Remind me where is general Baldie winning? He’s been losing thousands of soldiers, many civilians and territory since he was put in charge.
3 – nazis have infinite weapons and money, less than 100k dead and tens of thousands of mercenaries. Russia has none of those and they seem to have no drones left from Iran. And nato hasn’t even started yet.

Posted by: rk | Nov 10 2022 12:06 utc | 456

“When Putin finally realized that this is a war, not a “special operation,” it was far too late to call up the reserves.”
Posted by: Tenet | Nov 10 2022 7:25 utc | 442

_____
Right, “far too late”. Following the US model in Afghanistan, then, Russia will be forced to effect a panicked, chaotic airlift retreat from the Donetsk airport in — in say, 19 years or so. The goat-herders of Afghanistan are no match for Azov Nazis.
Mr. Tenet, may we call you George, former director of the CIA? Are you running out of volunteers-conscripts at the propaganda farm, or just bored in retirement?

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 10 2022 12:31 utc | 457

USA has already lost. I live in the northeast USA. My heating bill has more than doubled and so has my electric bill. Forget about Europe. The USA is going to suffer a serious economic collapse this winter.

Posted by: Kurt | Nov 10 2022 12:54 utc | 458

@rk #517
The ukies have forced mobilization 3 or 4 times already they have lost well over 100 000. Russia has been fighting Nato the entire time. If the west stopped with the money and weapons Ukraine would crumble in a week. They were beat months ago.

Posted by: OhhCanada | Nov 10 2022 13:12 utc | 459

Trolls having a second field day indeed. In March Russia was out of precision missiles, now they are out of “Iranian drones”, tomorrow they probably haven’t a single tank left….well whatever! But what I find hard to understand is why these nagging Xanthippe’s keep posting here, like mice running in the same threadmill perpetually. They must obviously get paid for it (somewhat, because I don’t believe their bosses are that generous), but what a life they lead: repeating the same stuff over and over again, looking at a little propaganda robot in the mirror. Well at what time did Goebbels realise that he couldn’t make his propaganda true, maybe in 1941 already or in 1942 at the very latest? He still kept going strongly for some time…So this may be dreadful: we may be stuck by all the trolls here for ages still – enough to sour all the wine in the bar one would fear…! OK, let’s ignore them and hope the Russians next winter have some mercy on our energy bills…they sure won’t have mercy on the American and Polish mercenaries in the Ukrainian mud…

Posted by: Anthony | Nov 10 2022 13:33 utc | 460

bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 513
Morality is not a thing, just an aesthetic. Video games don’t “erase” morality. What video games actually do is to introject a new value system by operant conditioning. The score disciplines their every action and strategy within the game world, promptly. The score is everything. If some fraction of “points” comes from shooting the flags of the current enemies of the US State Department, players are going to internalize that.
What we have are a populace who craves operant conditioning under the guise of value recognition.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Nov 10 2022 13:41 utc | 461

@ red 481
‘The jew Red’.
It sounds quite fanatical to call all nazis jews. You have to stick to the definition, and then even a jewish father does not count.
Also I pay some attention to the ethnic origin of people of power and influence, since there is indeed a suspect overrepresentation of the tribe in these circles. But no more than that because I like to judge people by their actions and ideas. As long as people don’t think they are exceptional or the chosen people they just are people, like you and me.

Posted by: Rootman | Nov 10 2022 13:44 utc | 462

306 : “Right or left bank?”
Rivers are delineated for ‘right or left bank’ on which way the river flows. The Dneiper flows into the Black Sea so the ‘West’ is the right bank and East is the ‘left bank’.

Posted by: canuck | Nov 10 2022 13:52 utc | 463

@401 The 1812 battle of Borodino was the deadliest ‘modern’ battle (French lost 30,000, the Russians 44,000) till the WW1. It was vicious affair Napoleon had to commit his reserve cavalry. The battle was a draw , basically, but the Russians did retreat so you can say it was a French victory , really a Pyric victory.
Only a few hundred Russians were taken as prisoners.
At the end of the day Nappy now held the lines that the Russians has defended from before him , but he was amazed when they stopped at a ridgeline immediately to the rear and prepared themselves for more fighting. The sun was setting so Napoleon decided to stand pat.
Napoleon wrote later in his memoirs, “The most terrible of my battles was the one before Moscow. The French showed themselves worthy of victory , but the Russians showed themselves worthy of being invincible”

Posted by: canuck | Nov 10 2022 14:13 utc | 464

@ bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 513
____
Superb comment as usual, Bevin, a satellite-view context of the global conflict. It’s as much, or more, a financial war as it is a kinetic military one. The Outlaw US Empire’s illegal sanctions and sabotage of its’ vassal allies’ economies are becoming a vicious boomerang. Russia is playing a long game. In my mind, the orderly withdrawal from Kherson is the equivalent of moving one piece backward on the board.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 10 2022 14:29 utc | 465

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 2:35 utc | 348
RF intervened primarily to stop the killing and cultural destruction of Russian speaking population in the East of Ukraine. So no, the Azov types and the rest of Ukrainian population are not innocent, even if brainwashed.

Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 14:38 utc | 466

RB | Nov 10 2022 14:38 utc | 527
Maybe have another go at what I said back in #348
I know why the RF intervened in 2014 and 2022.
Before the 2014 coup and what transpired the neo-nazis like Azov were nobodies and powerless minority extremists of minimal import – that any functioning govt and society could have managed. Eg Golden Dawn in Greece. But Ukraine primarily thanks to the Americans was dysfunctional, impoverished and the most corrupt nation in Europe (it is said.)
Underhanded American intervention in Ukraine in 2014 and for two decades before that is the driving issue creating social unrest, violence and brainwashing.
All the Ukrainian people are the victims here, in the west and the east. The Americans are the all powerful disruptive and criminally inclined perpetrators. Without the USA no one would have heard or cared less about Azov and Right Sector neo-nazi groups;
There would never been a coup, because no one would have been black mailing or threatening consecutive Ukrainian governments to do the bidding of the US and Nato using the promised riches of EU entry carrots.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 15:06 utc | 467

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 4:29 utc | 407
Business Insider? You might as well cite the Military Industrial Complex Weekly.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 4:40 utc | 403
Bacon is a troll and a jerk.

Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 15:26 utc | 468

Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 11:13 utc | 513

You are over analyzing things. When increases in population, innovation and productivity are no longer sufficient to grow the economy, destruction and rebuild are all that is left.
It was a good 75 years for most of us.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 10 2022 16:58 utc | 469

Opport Knocks@530
Schumpeter perhaps?
This isn’t the first ‘back to basics’ call from a neo-liberal on this thread but it looks as if it will be the last.
What is it about taking the economy out of the invisible hands of Providence and employing it as a set of tools for the benefit of humanity and the rehabilitation of the environment that is so difficult to grasp?

Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 17:12 utc | 470

As to Don Keytale. We know this nasty piece of work of old. I had thought that he was dead. All that has changed is that he no longer has incredibly improbable Agatha Christie/kabuki explanations for political developments.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 17:16 utc | 471

Don Keytale @514–
In no way did I disappear. I do have other responsibilities in my life that outrank commenting on MoA. And those of us who’ve been here for years know exactly who you are despite your childish attempt to cloak yourself. And that’s all the effort I’ll devote to you, for you are more than worthless–just another piece of Clinton.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 10 2022 17:17 utc | 472

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 15:06 utc | 526
Ok. I agree with most of what you said. Yes, the US arranged for the coup. It was, however, based on the Bandera ideology. If it was not there it wouldn’t happened. Most western based Ukrainians bought into it. Who is fighting on the Ukrainian side?

Posted by: RB | Nov 10 2022 18:31 utc | 473

The Russians have evacuated the remains of Prince Potemkin – just like the Nazis removed the remains of General Hindenburg from East Prussia in 1944.

Posted by: paul | Nov 10 2022 19:37 utc | 474

During WW2, over 1943/4, the Germans fortified the Dnieper and formed a defensive line there. They hoped to halt the Russian advance on the Dnieper. But Russian forces just poured across it. It was no obstacle to them at all.

Posted by: paul | Nov 10 2022 19:53 utc | 475

What is it about taking the economy out of the invisible hands of Providence and employing it as a set of tools for the benefit of humanity and the rehabilitation of the environment that is so difficult to grasp?
Posted by: bevin | Nov 10 2022 17:12 utc | 529

The economy was never in the “invisible hands of Providence”, it remains the product of billions of individual and collective decisions made every day. Marshalling the individuals to support a “master planned” collective is the essence of fascism, or at least a road to serfdom for the majority.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 4:35 utc | 476

The most extraordinary story about Russian lack of resources is due to lack of foresight the contracts of tens of thousands of soldiers had been set up for voluntary reenlistment and everyone had made plans for other stuff in the meantime, so when the contracts expired and the army had to let them go. I don’t really have confirmation about it, just that some people who I take seriously believe it.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Nov 11 2022 13:39 utc | 477

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (12 November 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 In Kupyansk direction, 2 enemy battalion tactical groups made attempts to attack Russian units towards Vladimirovka and Kuzemovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽️ Comprehensive firepower operation has resulted in halting and driving the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) back to their initial positions.
◽️ Moreover, 1 company tactical group of the AFU has been neutralised near Peschanoye (Kharkov region).
The enemy has lost a total of over 160 personnel, 6 tanks, and 9 armoured fighting vehicles in the abovementioned direction.
💥 In Krasny Liman direction, intensive action of Russian forces has resulted in the prevention of attacks intended to be launched by 4 company tactical groups of the AFU towards Svatovo, Ploshchanka, Makeyevka and Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◽️ Attacks launched by Russian artillery and Army Aviation have resulted in the elimination of over 190 Ukrainian personnel, 1 tank, 6 armoured fighting vehicles, and 5 motor vehicles.
💥 In South Donetsk direction, foreign mercenaries attempted to halt the advance of Russian forces by counterattacks towards Stepnoye, Vladimirovka and Pavlovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ Operation of artillery and Army Aviation has resulted in the elimination of over 85 militants, 7 armoured fighting vehicles, and 2 pickups.
💥 Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised 4 AFU command posts near Gavrilovka, Aleksandrovka (Kherson region), Zhovtnevoye (Nikolayev region) and Cherneshchina (Kharkov region), as well as 58 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 236 areas.
◽️ 2 U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-50 and AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed near Lozovaya (Kharkov region) and Zelyonaya Dolina (Donetsk People’s Republic).
◽️ 1 ordnance depot of 44th Artillery Brigade of the AFU has been destroyed near Varvarovka (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ 1 armament and hardware depot has been destroyed near Peschanoye (Kharkov region).
💥 Within the counterbattery warfare, 1 battery of U.S.-manufactured M-777 artillery systems has been neutralised near Kruglyakovka (Kharkov region).
✈️ Fighter Aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Yasnaya Polyana (Zaporozhye region).
💥 Air defence facilities have shot down 6 unmanned aerial vehicles near Novaya Tarasovka (Kharkov region), Petrovskoye, Kirillovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chistopolye (Zaporozhye region).
◽️ Moreover, 3 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha multiple-launch rocket systems have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka, Novaya Mayachka (Kherson region) and Volnovakha (Donetsk People’s Republic).
📊 In total, 333 airplanes and 175 helicopters, 2,492 unmanned aerial vehicles, 388 air defence missile systems, 6,550 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 886 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,574 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 7,187 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Summary | Nov 12 2022 12:15 utc | 478

The story I liked about the taking of Kherson was one I heard on the BBC, twice since yesterday, with suitable sound effects. Whereby the inhabitants of Kherson gathered round a large campfire clapping and dancing to welcome the Ukrainians (the BBC have a very smooth narrative, never falters for a moment). So, I asked myself, how many people can you fit around a single campfire, without people getting cold? A thousand or perhaps two at most. Of course the BBC never mentioned the numbers involved.

Posted by: laguerre | Nov 12 2022 12:32 utc | 479

“road to serfdom for the majority”
The road to serfdom is for the rulers to NOT be thoroughly and immediately accountable to the ruled. When you have a class system, that is. “Inequality before the law.” Of course the law has been corrupted now, so you are on your own here. Good luck.
Nothing is more destructive to public morality for some, than the thought that you will be able to get away with it.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 12 2022 12:36 utc | 480

It seems at this point that Russia misjudged the difficulty of this war with this adversary as proxy for US. Also seems their war machine is somewhat less than was advertised – referring to rotation of generals. However the assessment remains that they have lots of margine for error.
Russia has consistently downplayed the damage it has taken (militarily) and all nations lie about economic conditions – like women about age.
Overall, my impression is that Russia has managed (just) to weather the economic blows received from west and has managed to reflect much of that energy back on the west. So Russia is regaining footing while west continues to punch itself in the nuts.
The situation is increasingly dire for the west and that is dangerous for Russia – Putin in particular. The only way I see west coming out on top is taking-out Putin one way or another. It is said Putin is smart. If so he would realize that the way to ensure his own security and that of his nation would be to have prepare a secure and reliable line and means of succession. Ideally the next in line would be a figure which the west would not relish.

Posted by: jared | Nov 12 2022 15:42 utc | 481

Oops.
Meant to observe that appears that Russia is down but recovering, europe is down and accelerating downward and US is about even but in danger of sudden and rapid decline.
This must have Blinkens attention if not Bidens – US in a corner.

Posted by: jared | Nov 12 2022 15:46 utc | 482

That which does not destroy us…

Posted by: jared | Nov 12 2022 15:48 utc | 483

Does anyone out there study language? Noam Chomsky: The three views of language which shape instruction in reading and writing are the prescriptive, psycholinguistic, and sociolinguistic. Psycholinguistics is the study of the mental aspects of language and speech. It is primarily concerned with the ways in which language is represented and processed in the brain.
In military matters it’s interesting how words are used in a pejorative way. Opposing governments are “regimes,” and for opposing countries the opponents are personalized like ‘Saddam” and ‘Putin,’ for example. Opposing invasions by US fighters there have been “insurgents” and opposing Russian forces they are “Nazis,” and not “freedom fighters” which are American and Russian invaders. And so on.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 12 2022 15:55 utc | 484