I’ve not fully caught up, but I have noticed a distinct pattern. Those who have read Putin’s objectives for SMO and accepts that he might be speaking the truth with them, understand his actions and trnd to believe that he is doing a good job of trying to meet them. Those who follow the MSM view that he is trying to capture Ukraine to become a part of Russia believe that he fails every way that he turns.
Consider that those objectives were Putin’s address to the Russian people, the ones who back his effort, and who supported his call up of the reserves.
Evacuating Kerson greatly reduces the probability of it being washed off of the map. It will become captured by Ukrainian military, but they will abandon it when 300,000 troops enter from the East when the ground is frozen. Will they go to defend Odessa, Kiev, or some other part of Ukraine. Kerson will have been damaged, but probably not destroyed. It’s citizens have had time to hide or ship valuables elsewhere.
I’ve followed this action since before Maidinhead. I haven’t caught Putin in a lie. He typically waits six days before commenting on things. I suspect that he runs everything through staff and department heads to ensure that he speaks only the truth. Contrast that with oBiden.
Putin wants very much to not have to conquer Ukraine. He’s probably enjoying that his military is learning to identify, track, and defeat every NATO weapon. I’m sure that he enjoys driving an economic wedge between the NATO countries.

Posted by: barstool | Nov 10 2022 2:23 utc | 304

Uwe | Nov 10 2022 0:57 utc | 315
When describing the ‘left’ or ‘right’ banks of a river, the basis of reference is in the direction of the flow (not the map orientation). … Therefore if the Dneiper flows in a southernly direction, the ‘left bank’ would be on the east.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 10 2022 2:31 utc | 306

If the retreat from Kherson city is part of Putin’s plan then his plan is nonsensical. Why annex these four Ukrainian oblasts with the specification that their borders are as they have existed in Ukraine up to now, and then not defend them according to those existing borders? Alas, Russia looks weak, i.e., it looks as if it is incapable of defeating Ukraine, and so it has to constantly retreat. This is a losing strategy, and I do not believe that Russia is going to carry out any “winter offensive.”
Russia, in its “Donbas Offensive”, advances millimeters every few days or weeks; while simultaneously abandoning massive square kilometers of territory in a day or two in other regions.

Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 10 2022 2:35 utc | 308

There will be a fee involved for my services. 🙂
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 1:41 utc | 326
Scorpion will pay it.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 2:40 utc | 310

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 0:24 utc | 304
So, what’s in for you on all this? You rejoice about what’s happening in Kherson and for what end? spilling hate against people, calling them obese fraud, mirroring what you so bittering call obtuse blowhard blogger armchair general. Again, what’s in for you on all this if not to congratulate yourself for being right in a single moment when you’ve fail all the others times.
I remember you from Slavyangrad Telegram Channel spreading doom everywhere. I guess some people never change, being a reiteration of their own hatred.

Posted by: Azaghal | Nov 10 2022 2:45 utc | 312

With all that glee, teeth gnashing, and other armchair strategizing going on WRT Kherson… did the attrition rate change?
This is about the only thing the real military cares about. Attrition. Positions are tactical. Logistics is important but only as as far as it affects attrition. In the end, the party which lasts longer wins.
So… RF is against NATO/US. Normally, RF cannot inflict any attrition on NATO without the conflict turning nuclear. Ukraine is an opportunity to damage NATO by attrition without overt aggression. NATO brass is not going to expend resources on a war they think they have no chance of winning. Now, add 2 and 2 and you will understand the reason why it is half-assed SMO, and why none of the strategic assets are expended by RF. And, by the way, Russian attitude is shaped by 22 million lives it lost defending itself from the fascist West not so long ago. Rendering West impotent by draining its military stockpiles at the cost of mere tens of thousands lives looks like a total bargain now.

Posted by: averros | Nov 10 2022 2:49 utc | 314

It doesn’t really matter. This is liking looking at the leaves on a tree and missing the whole forest. Let me repeat what I posted a few days ago:
“I am not certain the goal is quick victory in Ukraine, but the slow grinding down of US hegemony, creating breathing room for the Global South, and space for a multipolar world to emerge. In Putin’s own words this will take 10-20 years. The Beast cannot be slain with a sword; it has to be starved and suffocated. China, Iran, North Korea, the BRICS+, the SCO, BRI all are pieces on this great chessboard.
It may well be that the Russian plan is to turn Ukraine into NATO’s graveyard by pulling them in further and further by their own delusion of “Russia almost defeated”.
Russia is playing the long game. The objective is not to capture territory in Ukraine but to dismantle hegemony.

Posted by: Moses | Nov 10 2022 2:58 utc | 316

I have a concern that I haven’t seen voiced here (apologies if I missed it) . . .
The official narrative in the West has been that “Russia/Putin is desperate, Russia is losing”; try having a conversation here in the US and say that Russia is not losing, you will be immediately scoffed at and called a Putin-lover (I understand you can go to jail in Germany for supporting the Russian invasion). In other words, the majority of people in the West appear to accept this narrative, correct?
And for some time now, we have been regularly hearing that in this desperation, Russia is likely to use a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb. Never mind that Russia has tried get the world to hear its evidence that is is Ukraine/US/NATO that is planning to use a dirty bomb to create a casus belli for the US/NATO to directly intervene with their military forces in Ukraine.
So . . . the Russian retreat from Kherson totally plays into the Western narrative that “Russia/Putin is desperate, Russia is losing the war”
I find this disconcerting . . . why create the perfect circumstance for the maniacs to let loose some horrendous false flag, which will be quite easy to sell to the propagandized Western public?

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 10 2022 3:01 utc | 318

Political legitimacy, and a redrawn border are when Russia forces the West to these conditions at peace talks. Well played, 5D grand chess master!
Posted by: Suresh Kumar | Nov 10 2022 2:45 utc | 353
Umm, about that, even if Russia could take territorial control over all four new Oblasts, and declare a ceasefire after moving the border from where it was to one oblast width to the west changes nothing in regard Nato, the USA or Ukraine itself.
The same “existential” problems Putin had in February remain. Any purported “peace agreement”, just like Minsk 1 & 2, will not be worth the paper they are written on.
Because nothing has changed, and nothing is going to change in the USA’s judgment of Russia – period.
So far Russia is not anywhere close to securing the four new Oblasts after 9 months of military action. It’s lost ~70% of it’s exports, lost $300 billion in Cash, and increased the size of Nato nations significantly including abutting it’s borders, and expanded the size of NATOs Military apparatus and manpower in Europe.
How is this Masterful?
This is what cognitive dissonance looks like and feels like. A Denial of reality. Where several sustained retreats over several months means Victory and Success.
In what Universe is this true?

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 3:09 utc | 320

The objective is not to capture territory in Ukraine but to dismantle hegemony.
Posted by: Moses | Nov 10 2022 2:58 utc | 359
American Empire’s Hegemony will not be found on the fields of Ukraine.
No one is damaging the US inside the borders of Ukraine. It’s the Ukrainians being damaged and killed. Not hegemonic Americans.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 3:15 utc | 322

Posted by: averros | Nov 10 2022 2:49 utc | 356

Now, add 2 and 2 and you will understand the reason why it is half-assed SMO, and why none of the strategic assets are expended by RF

Bingo.
At least one poster on this multi ring circus of a forum led by jokers, clowns and trolls “gets it”.
Now wait a few months for bulk of MoA posters to catch up.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 10 2022 3:20 utc | 324

This is appalling enough to be real.
We’ll see.

Posted by: lahire | Nov 10 2022 3:26 utc | 326

All i know is RF managed to protect LEGIT geopolitical interests (crimea)
with a god like loss of life. This SMO isnt war. Its a hybrid. Time will tell. Oh ya its called disent, at least it used ro ne called that. Now its called atroll

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Nov 10 2022 3:31 utc | 328

This is what cognitive dissonance looks like and feels like. A Denial of reality. Where several sustained retreats over several months means Victory and Success.
In what Universe is this true?
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 3:09 utc | 364
I haven’t seen the Fat Lady. I wager no one has seen her yet…

Posted by: AParadiseLost | Nov 10 2022 3:33 utc | 330

“EU explains catch to $18 billion in Ukraine aid
Kiev will have 35 years to pay the bloc back”
— RT, 9 November 2022
In wheat or corn?
————–
On another topic I’ve read more confused Bidenspeak today than ever–a dubious record.
On both of these topics: Russia clearly faces a perhaps mortal to themselves enemy(swarm). Godspeed.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 10 2022 3:39 utc | 332

#23 OdessaConnected
Anyone have any idea why Putin wouldn’t continue mobilizing and get ahead of the curve by adding about 1,000,000 troops so he could hold the land they have and advance on Odessa and Kiev?
this morning i was reading some famous maskirovka, specifically Operation Uranus, about the million mobilized troops moving by night and disguising themselves by day and thought to myself (and this is before the announcement of kherson withdrawl) i bet Russia has mobilized a LOT more that 300k troops. i read earlier there were a bunch of troops yet to be deployed in Crimea, probably lots hanging out in russia. maybe even a million.
so, to answer your question b, i think in the broader scheme of things, i do think this is part of a larger maskirovka. it’s real in the immediate sense, they’ve evacuated all the civilians but i’m not sure about all the troops, or special forces inside kherson. but think Russia has something up their sleeve. this is why Surovikin was brought in. the plan was likely put in place in september. remember operation uranus was first delayed on nov 8 though planned in september. i think there’s something coming up around the corner.

Posted by: annie | Nov 10 2022 3:41 utc | 334

Bringing this war to an end is a win for everybody. As Russia has said time and again, it had its (pretty) clearly defined objectives for this mission from the onset and by all accounts it has met them, including demilitarization, denazification and the liberation of the Donbass region. Sure, Kherson was a bonus but it was never part of the original package. Conquering as much territory as possible was never part of the deal.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 10 2022 3:43 utc | 336

Perimetr | Nov 10 2022 3:01 utc | 361
You and your wife have decided to have a baby. You take her for her first doctor’s appointment. When you get home you find the police waiting for you. They tell you they received an anonymous tip that you were beating your wife and had to take her to the doctor. You explain to them that your wife is pregnant and that was the purpose of the doctor’s appointment.
Halfway through the pregnency you take your wife to the doctor for another checkup. When you return home you find the sherrif waiting for you. He tells you his office received an anonumous tip that you were beating your wife and had to take her to the doctor. You explain to them that your wife is pregnant and that was the purpose of the doctor’s appointment.
At the end of her pregnancy your wife’s water breaks. You take her to the hospital and your baby is born. Upon returning home a few days later the state police are waiting for you. They tell you they have received an anonymous tip that you were beating your wife and had to take her to the hospital for treatment. You explain to them that your wife was pregnant and that was the purpose of the trip to the hospital was to have your baby delivered.
So, a couple of questions…
1. Do you plan your wife’s health check ups and the birth of your baby according to the anonymous tips or is there some other guiding principle that governs those decisions?
2. What is the ultimate effect of the anonymous tips upon the birth of your child?
Use your brain, not your emotions, and you will have the answers to the questions you posted.

Posted by: Michael S | Nov 10 2022 3:46 utc | 338

i think there’s something coming up around the corner.
Posted by: annie | Nov 10 2022 3:41 utc | 381
They probably hand Mariupol back to Ukraine. Fits the pattern since May 2022.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 3:57 utc | 340

@Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 3:48 utc | 386
You failed to respond to the point I made. Do you have trouble reading? Apparently you do.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 4:02 utc | 342

Plain and simple, Kherson was ‘a bridge too far’ for Russia. All the bridges have been destroyed and can’t be rebuilt. Ferry service is sketchy and vulnerable, and so Russian forces lack proper logistical connections. Gasoline, water, food, ammunition, repair parts, they are absent and military forces can’t function.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 4:07 utc | 344

Elensky:
I had a phone call with @netanyahu. I congratulated him on winning the elections and wished him a successful formation of the new government.
I expressed hope that the level of Interaction will correspond to the security challenges facing our countries.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1589714059502710784
When “antisemitism” is sniffed out and condemned everywhere…except Ukraine, where symbols are unashamedly displayed:
https://twitter.com/JJ56123/status/1588232926633885697

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 4:14 utc | 346

From my experience at the bar (at least 10 years lurking and 6 months posting), there are many well-informed posters with a wide range of knowledge. However, few of us, as far as I have been able to tell, have ever been elected political leaders of nations or are deeply experienced soldiers or military commanders (although some of have talked of minimal military experience – b does have legitimate military experience). So, it is always interesting to hear posters write with such confidence about what is or is not happening – especially when it concerns the inner workings of governmental and military decisions.
Russia was in a very difficult position at February 2022. NATO had expanded right up to its borders and was making objective moves to expand into Ukraine where it would be able to allow the US to begin implementing a wide range of plans to undermine/dissolve the current political structure and absorb the economic base of Russia into the Western system. Russia witnessed how the US/NATO had operated in various other parts of the world, and it knew that the military build up in Ukraine would continue and that an offensive in the Donbass was imminent. Russia was also aware of the growing NATO military presence in Romania and Poland. The US also pulled out of treaties that helped to ensure security in Europe and beyond (Open Skies, INF, ABM). All of these known factor are givens in the equation/proof that Russia was trying to work out.
From 2014 onward, Russia attempted to find compromises in Ukraine and with NATO/US/EU. Minsk 1 and 2 both show that while Russia was not aggressively trying to integrate the Donbass into Russia; both agreements explicitly keep the Donbass in Ukraine. Poroshenko and Zelensky have both stated that the Minsk Agreements only worked to provide time to develop economic and military might to fight Russia. Russia, too, during this time, built up its arsenal. At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, knowing that a military conflict was becoming more probable, Russia tried to negotiate new security arrangements with the US/NATO. These offers were not taken seriously, and no serious negotiations or discussions occurred.
Apparently, Putin once said that his experience growing up taught him that if a fight was inevitable, strike first. So, with the known background, and the increase in shelling and military activity along the line of contact in Eastern Ukraine, apparently as precursors to an imminent Ukrainian offensive in Eastern Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine.
I do not believe that Russia was completely prepared for war. They had not mobilized the populations or prepared the economy for the ensuing difficulties. That said, they had prepared a military force that was capable of action, and it took action. From all known reports, most of the forces were sent to the east and south of Ukraine, with a smaller force sent towards Kiev. While misjudgments and mistakes in planning and execution occurred, it seems unlikely that Russia would have honestly believed that it would be able to defeat the Ukrainian forces near Kiev with the forces it sent. It is more likely that the forces were sent with multiple options available – the availability to fight battles if necessary and the capacity as a feint to pin Ukrainian forces down with the intent of intimidating the Ukrainian government and encouraging negotiations.
Negotiations did ensue with Turkiye mediating, and according to multiple sources, progress was made. In fact, as part of the ongoing negotiations, Russian troops left the Kiev area. Tentative agreements were made. However, multiple sources also now show that B. Johnson went to Ukraine and scuttled the possibility of ending the war in a way that would have allowed Russia to have its interests protected while also securing Ukrainian interests.
Since then, Russia was able to secure its initial territorial gains in most areas, while Ukraine has made some advances and regained some territory. Generally, the maps have stayed the same since March 2022. Ukraine, while losing many soldiers, has been buttressed by enormous amounts of money and equipment, plus soldiers and logistical support, from Western powers. Russia has also mobilized some of its population and has intensified its military production. Escalation is ongoing.
I do not believe that Russia wants to go to all out war or declare war. It does not want to subject its citizens or other citizens to the horrors of war. It has tried to minimize casualties in its own army and that of Ukrainian civilians. It is trying to protect its interests without making moves that will dramatically increase the involvement of NATO military forces. Russia knows that if that occurs, the vicissitudes of fate may blow in ways that are uncontrollable. These may all be mistakes when the final history is written 30 years from now, and many posters at the bar are adamant that view.
What Russia does understand is that the US/NATO only speaks and listens to the language of POWER. It is trying to stand up for itself and protect the current government and national system against forces that have, in essence, done whatever they have deemed appropriate without any real opposition for the last 70 years. These forces have caused the destruction of multiple governments and national systems in multiple continents with the known negative consequences for the citizens of those countries. Russia itself was affected by similar forces, not war, when the USSR dissolved, and its economy was decimated by a Western takeover. It knows that it must stand up and take concrete action. It is, at the same time, attempting to prevent the sort of all-out war that could lead to the deaths of millions in Russia and around the world and that could have a cascade of other consequences. It is willing to take the risk of limited military action with the hope that it will prevent its eventual dismemberment at the hands of the US/EU/NATO; a risk that may prove futile.
Will leaving Kherson or retreating from Kharkiv be the death-knell for Russia? Are these moves harbingers of an ever-weakening Russian government that will soon be devoured from within by forces cultivated by the west, a dissatisfied military, and a disillusioned Russian population? Are Russia military withdrawals simply smart tactical maneuvers that end up protecting Russian soldiers and interests while drawing Ukrainians into difficult positions? Will the winter allow a more comprehensive Russian offensive that destroys more Ukrainian infrastructure and troops while securing more of eastern Ukraine and Odessa? Will a large Russian counteroffensive trigger the advance of US, Romanian, and Polish troops? Is there some sort of back channel diplomacy at work that gives Kherson back to Ukraine while allowing Russian interests and peoples to be protected in the Donbass?
So many questions for barflies to speculate upon…with few of us having any real knowledge about what the Russian leadership is actually thinking or how far the US and its chosen cronies (UK, Poland, Romania, NATO) will go to protect its interests.
As usual, I’ll sit back, sip my drink, listen to the banter (clever and not) and watch the sots stumble around. I’ll suspend my judgment about what is happening until I know more facts. At the same time, I will not be swayed from my belief that the US through its continued eastern expansion of NATO and its unbridled lust for power and wealth, fueled by a hubris matched only by the tragic heroes of Greek drama, is the architect of this madness. I can only hope that somehow, whatever Russia’s action have been and may continue to be, that they compel the US to rethink its foreign policy in Ukraine and beyond and begin to act in a way that creates peace and allows the peoples of the world to exercise true sovereignty. We shall see.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Nov 10 2022 4:18 utc | 348

Russia … had clearly defined objectives for this mission from the onset and by all accounts it has met them, including demilitarization, denazification and the liberation of the Donbass region.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 10 2022 3:43 utc | 383
Patently not true. Not one goal for the SMO has been met. Not even close. Even the LPR and DPR are not safe. They still do not have secure borders. War rages on. While Russian forces keep retreating not advancing since May – 6 months ago.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 4:20 utc | 350

@390 Biswapriya Purkayast
Dude, the Ukrainians are launching an offensive. It is a big offensive.
It is far and away the largest counter-offensive that they have mounted at any time during this war. By a long shot.
Everything the Ukrainians have is being poured into this offensive in an attempt to break the Russian army inside Ukraine. To encircle and destroy major units of the Russian army.
And….. the Russian army steadfastly refuses to allow its army to be crushed. They pulls back in Kharkov, and they are doing it again in Kherson.
This is – very clearly – a deliberate strategy that the Russians are following i.e. they have made the deliberate decision to wait until the Ukrainian offensive exhausts itself.
And after exhaustion sets in?
Well, heck, that’s where you and I differ.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 10 2022 4:27 utc | 352

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Nov 10 2022 4:14 utc | 397
“Now it is Russia’s turn to blow up the Nova Kakhovka Dam to drown Ukrainian troops in the Kherson region.”
Hey, if they did that, I’d applaud the move and it would completely justify the withdrawal (provided they immediately retook all of Kherson.) But I doubt it.
Martyanov just posted another bit of copium, citing some Larry Johnson copium, and then redirected the argument to Iraq vs Ukraine comparisons about the size of the Russian SMO force, which is irrelevant. If the Russians were incapable of preventing Ukraine from blowing the dam, then someone needs to explain how and why that situation arose and why the Russians did not have a counter move.
I can imagine how the Russian public feels today, because I feel the same way. This was just stupid and everyone can see it.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 4:43 utc | 354

It’s an impossible thread to read, so my apologies if this thought is not new, but I saw a comment at Smoothie’s place to the effect that, by withdrawing Russian troops from Kherson, Russia also removes the incentive for Ukraine to blow the dam. If Ukie soldiers move in, there’s even less reason to blow it, and of course absolute reason not to.
I admire the deftness of how Russia has acted here. The new commander, Surovikin, said he would take the hard decisions, and these are the hard ones: to give up ground in order to save thousands of soldiers. And Surovikin actually said that the deployment was already encircled (to his judgment at least), and that’s how he advised Shoigyu, who agreed. If Ukraine had been able to press that advantage that would have been a defeat for Russia. But this general is good.
Kadyrov has already come out publicly and praised the decision, and evidenced great respect for Surovikin in his words. All the soldiers are confirmed in the knowledge that the Russian general staff (RGS) will not throw their lives away needlessly, and only for true advantage for the Motherland. If you can feel the glow from Kadyrov, you know Russian troop morale must be sky-high at this point.
And Russia spent at least a week prior to this announcement moving 110,000 civilians out of the city. If, by leaving themselves, they reduce the threat from a blown dam for those civilians who remained, then it’s an even greater net plus.
Withdrawing from the west bank of the Dnieper river – which is really what this is, and Kherson just happens to be part of what gets left unoccupied for the moment – is on its face, obviously a strengthening of the front line for Russia now. Ukraine and even NATO cannot cross that river alive, and all the while Russia continues to stage in troops and hardware. In terms of battle maneuver, this strikes me as little more than reshaping the field to your greater advantage, which is the whole point of maneuver warfare.
~~
I was reading some classic encircling maneuvers from history yesterday, and it occurs to me how ludicrous it would have been if the commanders conducting those maneuvers had been watched by a crowd of civilians bemoaning the moves as not making sense. Indeed, in some of the battles, the moves didn’t make sense – to the opponent, which was why they worked. Just as well RGS doesn’t read this thread (one hopes).

Posted by: Grieved | Nov 10 2022 4:47 utc | 356

@ LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:28 utc | 199
The trolls are throwing their shit like monkeys from a cage
So you’re in a cage?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 4:55 utc | 358

Zanon
Russia sucks at war?
That’s what Napoleon & Hitler said too & how’d that work out for them Pus Boi?!
And your argument that this isn’t the same Russia is just Goblin NATO wishful thinking! The Russian national DNA has NOT been polluted/diluted with the worthless DNA of the hordes of malignant 2 digit IQ minorities like the US & EU have been!
The US has LOST every conflict since WW2 & there they barely beat the Japs. Without the A bomb US pussys would have settled for peace. Had Patton gone ahead with fighting the Soviet’s the US wouldn’t be where they are today because they would’ve been utterly destroyed!
Napoleon took Moscow, waited for the Czar to surrender & then Moscow burned with no word from the Czar.
Only 2 of every 12 French soldiers made it home.
The best way to predict the future is by examining the past & that yields Russia winning & the US losing!

Posted by: Triple X MagnumMAGA | Nov 10 2022 5:00 utc | 360

I think they are trying to save the dam upriver at Novakakhovka. If the Ukies bust the dam Kherson floods and Crimea looses its fresh water source. If the Nazis are allowed to retake Kherson they really have no reason to bust the dam. It isn’t forever but it may buy some time. There’s no excuse for not having forseen this nevertheless.

Posted by: AllSeeingEye | Nov 10 2022 5:02 utc | 362

Terminators appeared, trucked in and being delivery to Kherson. Their speciality is urban combat. Telegram has the vids if you need to see it. So theres one more odd piece to the puzzle.
The last “retreat” strategic or not delivered absolute carnage on the victors over the last month. Why is it that this move cant be seen in a similar light.

Posted by: Hankster | Nov 10 2022 5:04 utc | 364

Martyanov just posted another bit of copium, …
I do not believe one needs to be a “professional intel analyst” to see that Martyanov’s “strategic differences between US campaign in Iraq in 2003 and SMO” is load of illogical tosh.
The 4 points he listed actually reinforces Joe’s notion that “Russia seems to be continually playing catch-up due to the mistake of going into Ukraine with so few men.
Martyanov adding: “Today’s events are orders of magnitude larger than any Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns, utterly embarrassing for the US, and are about effective survival of human civilization as a concert of nations who respect their own history and national traditions. For that, the combined West must be defeated. The scale of a struggle is titanic and truly global.“
How does Russia approach this epic battle?
By sending in a little over 100,000 force into Ukraine, the most militarized nation in Europe, on a minimalist SMO action that fails to work. That requires a major Mobilization of 300,000 more within 6 months.
Doh! All these “professional intel analysts” Give me a break from all of them!

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 5:15 utc | 366

That Kherson is evacuated means the population of Kherson prefers the Russian army over the Ukrainian army.

Posted by: Passerby | Nov 10 2022 5:18 utc | 368

@ Zanon #194
How do you know how may men the Russians have lost and/or have been used as “cannon fodder”?
Where is Tom_UK, I’d thought he’d be all over this development with gleam in his eye or perhaps he/she/it is now someone else?
I see “uncensored” (and whatever he/she/it was before that name) is now back as “red”. Do you change IP addresses the same as your user names?

Posted by: DakotaRog | Nov 10 2022 5:33 utc | 370

DannyO | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 264
The German supply lines were stretched to their limit – no different than the US/NATO merc army of 2022. The Russians will simply not repeat Stalingrad with their backs against the Volga. The RA goal is to set a trap just like with the Germans in the winter of 1943 – allow the mercs to concentrate their forces and weaken their supply lines – then a massive counter attack either at Kherson or somewhere along the front. Suddenly the mercs are out flanked and trapped within urban areas with no means of resupply or retreat in the middle of winter.
The Soviet ability to spring its trap in November 1942 was predicated on NOT having retreated back across the Volga. But then, Stalin and his generals were committed to victory, something increasingly in doubt where it comes to the current Russian leadership.
At least you admit you DON’T want a repeat of the Stalingrad victory. Most of the Yes-men trolls here are shrieking ever more shrilly that Retreat is Victory.
The simple fact is that Russia could hold Kherson if the leadership had the will. They’d destroy the power grid if they had the will. They’d reimpose air supremacy if they had the will. They’d destroy the command centers and important economic, logistic and cultural structures in Kiev and Lvov if they had the will. They’d still be seeking the proclaimed goals of demilitarization and denazification if they had the will. They’d have enforced the farcical “red line” against NATO intervention if they had the will.
Either out of moral spinelessness or some version of the kayfabe hypothesis they lack the will to do these things.
As for the idea that this is predestined to be a long war, yes it is. But this refers to the greater breadth of WWIII, which already rages at the economic and cultural levels and which is bound to break out into various shooting conflicts on various fronts.
But the Ukraine itself should be just the overture to this. Russia should have secured this front long ago. The peace-at-any-price (and therefore objectively pro-empire) trolls, crypto-pacifists as I called them back in March, simply have extreme agoraphobia, are wetting their pants at the very thought of WWIII and therefore want to turn the telescope backwards and shrink every concept down to the level of this single theater, which they then absurdly claim should go on for years.
Meanwhile the idea bruited earlier in this thread of an Inchon-like surprise offensive from Belarus into the Baltic shitholes sounds better and better the more I think about it. That could indeed turn the Kherson retreat into a brilliant feint. But I won’t hold my breath waiting for such boldness from this leadership. And of course the very thought of this would make the Yes-men tremble in terror. We see how their notion of the retreat is purely fear-based, purely conservative in the most timid sense of the term. They’re already telling themselves there won’t be a Russian winter offensive at all, and therefore there shouldn’t be any such offensive. since they have zero ideas and zero agency but simply sit in pure passivity receiving whatever Putin says and does and cultishly declaring it Good and The Only Thing Possible.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 10 2022 5:50 utc | 372

Surovikin, in his briefing to Shoigu, also mentioned the potential for Ukraine to use unconventional means in Cherson, or whatever that euphemism was. Mercouris supposed in one of his videos that this was in reference to the dirty bomb scare, once that story came up. I’d say it makes sense, in the context of the reluctance shown by Ukraine to capitalize on the Russian withdrawal. If there’s already a plan in motion of deploying a devastating weapon with primarily a media function in Cherson, the presence of Ukrainian troops might not be enough to alter it — or, at the very least, whatever is left of Ukrainian instincts of self preservation, would want to secure some sort of assurances that the plan is being called off. Waltzing in immediately and being “nuked by the Russians in desperation” would make for an even better narrative than “Russians carelessly nuking themselves” or whatever could be spun out of that mess. Maybe it’s far fetched, but it’s worth taking notice of Surovikin deliberately distinguishing between unconventional tactics and the potential flooding and dam related issues in his briefing, and the term is obviously being used in allusion to a known but classified threat, so there certainly appears to be an unknown factor at play that needs to be considered.
Meanwhile, withdrawal from Cherson for the Russians is being framed as supply related, which implies the potential for retaining a light force presence more in line with what airdrops can provide. Systems and units that would quickly degrade in case of a cutoff from supply lines would obviously serve no purpose anyway if such a scenario was realized, and there is reportedly a significant Russian force concentrated in Cherson which many commentators interpreted as prep for an offensive. If that’s is the case and the Russians were expecting to break through Ukrainian defenses in the near future, I’d assume they even have forward deployed heavy systems in the area and their accompanying support units. Those would need to be redeployed asap if the plan changes to a holding action or if the offensive was a faint, even if the Russians continue to hold Cherson.

Posted by: Skiffer | Nov 10 2022 6:13 utc | 374

re: Michael S | Nov 10 2022 3:46 utc | 385
Your tortured analogy sucks and has little to do with what I wrote, or the reality of the situation. Which is that Russia has just handed the US a massive propaganda victory that plays into the “dirty bomb” narrative that has been playing here for some time. Russia clearly believes that there is a dirty bomb in the works. Now they have given the maniacs the perfect excuse to use it.
If propaganda didn’t matter, the rulers wouldn’t waste their time and treasure on it. We have a worst case scenario in Washington, where incompetent ideologues are convinced they are winning the war and are about to double down in that with an invasion of Ukraine.
Jimmy can say “you can tell Americans anything and they will believe it”. Yes, it seems that way these days, but that doesn’t negate what I wrote, it supports it. Else why bother with propaganda at all? Russia has just “proved” that they are losing the war; their actions fit the West’s official narrative.
In his last two interviews, Colonel Macgregor has pointed out that the US has advance forces in Ukraine and a “coalition” of 90,000 troops (40,000 US, 30,000 Poles, and 20,000 Romanians) ready to go into Ukraine. Macgregor thinks Blinken told his counterpart in Russia that the US will intervene if Russia attempts any large offensive.
Clearly the neocons are chafing at the bit to go to war. These fools believe their own propaganda! They think they can make Russia “back down”, and the Kherson retreat won’t do anything to change that.
It’s past time for Russia to shit or get off the pot.

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 10 2022 6:47 utc | 376

Posted by: Grieved | Nov 10 2022 4:47 utc | 412
These points are true only if you assume two things: 1) The Russian have no ability to counter a Ukrainian attack on the dam; and 2) given the length of time they’ve been in Kherson and the Ukrainians have been shelling that dam during most of that time, the Russian couldn’t come up with a better plan than retreating.
Both those points prove this is not a good move. Yes, it does everything you say – but only because the Russians had to do this.
What I’m saying is that this did not need to happen. That’s the point everyone is missing with their copium – including Berletic and Martyanov. The Russians could have prevented this – they didn’t. If they couldn’t, someone needs to explain why.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 7:00 utc | 378

Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 6:09 utc | 434
Yep
Giyane | Nov 10 2022 6:06 utc | 433
Once a colony. Always a colony.
There’s never been true independence, autonomy or sovereignty… the various colony settlements Federated to form a Nation in 1901.
And youths rush 15,000 kms to die for “King and Country” in 1914.
Fast forward to 2022, and nothing has changed in the mindset of obsequiousness and helotry. Hell. We even once again have a King to die for.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 7:13 utc | 380

I’m tired. Marx, Engels, and Lenin were right.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 9 2022 22:24 utc | 254
Nope. They were MUCH worse. Their creed caused over 100 million people murdered. And if you want something better than corporatism (aka state capitalism) read Murray Rothbard.

Posted by: averros | Nov 10 2022 7:15 utc | 382

Looks like this site won’t let quotes show up, even when you follow the instructions right above the post. Okay. Here’s the quote I was thinking of from OdessaConnected:
>If the withdrawal from Kherson city and the right bank is indeed simply a military tactic, it doesn’t seem to take into account the huge PR victory for Ukraine. Such a PR victory will lead to more and more Western funding for Ukraine.

Posted by: Tenet | Nov 10 2022 7:21 utc | 384

Situation near Kherson: The view through the eyes of Ukrainian military analysts
▪️Russian command today withdrew from Kherson a number of units from the 76th Airborne Assault Division, 106th Airborne Division and the 22nd Army Corps (Crimea). The nature of the RF Armed Forces’ actions suggests that a systematic retreat from the Kherson bridgehead is under way, relying on several defensive lines to retreat from line to line while maintaining combat order and control.
▪️The retreat of Russian troops will take a few days but will not be quick – there are several thousand pieces of combat equipment and weapons on the right bank.
▪️ The aim is to keep the troops combat-ready.
▪️This is why the front line has been heavily mined, cover units deployed.
▪️The Russian command intends to preserve the maximum amount of military equipment and prevent the bridgehead from collapsing under the attacks of the Ukrainian armed forces, which would result in heavy losses and loss of combat effectiveness of the best Russian units.
▪️The Russian airborne troops—combat groups of all 4 divisions and all 4 airborne brigades, units of the 22nd Army Corps and the 49th Combined Arms Army—are concentrated on the Kherson bridgehead.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19432

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:24 utc | 386

Having just (not) waded through all the posts, one thing is clear – the Russians have not YET left Kherson, but the population has. By withdrawing from the surrounding countryside, and loudly claiming a “retreat”, Zelensky will now gleefully over-ride his generals and put pressure on the NATO/US for an immediate attack. Against what I assume to be a well hidden defensive line(s).
The Ukrainians cannot cross the river either. Other points of contention will be the Dams, (both sides of the river) and around the NPP.
Meanwhile where will the influx of new Russian troops continue their build-up? This changed situation will provide more time for them to be deployed/up armoured and trained. The time line of mid December (when the cold arrives) is still a likely one for a new push.

Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 10 2022 7:26 utc | 388

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Consequences of the Shelling of the #Vinnitsa 750kV Substation – Analysis of Satellite Imagery by @Rybar, publ. 20:53 on 8 Nov⚡️
💥 Russian forces continue their systematic shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
We have repeatedly provided our analytical notes and observations on the results of the shelling from open sources. However, there is no information on some of the facilities that were likely the target of the Russian strikes. Therefore, we have decided to use images from Maxar. If the enemy uses them to analyse the consequences of the shelling, why can’t we do so?
🔎 The infographic shows an analysis of the Vinnitsa 750kV substation image from 1 November 2022.
▪️ Two impact craters are recorded on the outermost autotransformer with evidence of damage to the current leads to it and, presumably, signs of burning oil around it.
▪️ Another autotransformer damaged. The structure is lined with sandbags.
▪️ All of the most valuable equipment has been surrounded by fire and shatterproof shields, which will definitely reduce the effect of subsequent strikes.
▪️ For reasons unknown to us, one bypass reactor is missing (it used to be in the pictures).
🩸 From what we have seen, we can conclude that the substation has sustained some damage, but its functionality is probably intact. Further strikes are required to disable the remaining 750/330 kV autotransformer group.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19442

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:27 utc | 390

Mistakes happen don’t they.
No prophecies here but striving to sort out things.
This situation calls to mind the Stratagem of the Empty City that was famously used by statesman Zhuge Liang in the battle of Xicheng around 230 A.D.
In that case of old, the stratagem worked well because Zhuge Liang was universally known as being full of tricks, a Chinese Odysseus. The enemy general feared an ambush, refused the bait and retreated. That was his mistake as he was in a position to take the fort easily.
It’s not my understanding that the present case could even remotely be similar.
Mistakes do happen, again and again.
Whose mistake this time remains to be seen.

Posted by: lahire | Nov 10 2022 7:29 utc | 392

⚡️Front summary for the morning of 11/10/2022⚡️
In the direction of Kherson, the decision to withdraw Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper has been made. But that doesn’t mean running away. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are still holding their positions. A strategic withdrawal is a very complex military operation. Moreover, taking into account the terrain on the right bank of the Kherson region. You can’t just leave. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to complicate this maneuver for the Russian army. Another missile strike near Novaya Kakhovka. (Fig. 1)
In the Uludar direction, Russian troops, with the support of artillery, nevertheless entered Pavlovka. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are also hitting the city itself and Nikolsky. (Fig. 2)
On the Donetsk front, the Russian army again attacked on the ground in the Novomikhailovka area in order to reach Konstantinovka and cut off the road to Maryinka from the south. Artillery worked in the very fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this city. The same situation is in Krasnogorovka. This is another fortified area of ​​the Ukrainian army. To the northeast, Russian troops again attacked on the ground in the direction of Pervomaisky. They also conducted assault operations in the Experienced area. Artillery hit Avdiivka. (Fig. 3)
PMC “Wagner” are trying to advance in the city of Bakhmut on the eastern outskirts. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems near Soledar. They are conducting heavy defensive battles near Novobakhmutsky and on the southeastern outskirts of the city. And from the east, their positions were attacked in the Yakovlevka area. There is an important road. (Fig. 4)

https://t.me/geromanat/3143

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:33 utc | 394

From Larry Johnson

I realize this frustrates the dickens out of the global audience who are eager to see a major clash. Some are pulling for Kiev and others are rooting for Moscow. General Surovikin understands that the opinions of the “watchers” is irrelevant.
He will fight at a place and time of his choosing, if he can. What is noteworthy about the Russian withdrawal from Kherson is that it was not done under fire or attack. It was calm and orderly an apparently was pre-planned. Perhaps this explains the rumors that circulated a few weeks back that Russia was going to leave Kherson city.
Bloggers, Telegrammers and commenters do not get to vote for who is the winner in Ukraine. That will be decided by who can put the most combat effective troops on the field, who can feed and supply those troops with the weapons and ammunition they need to fight, and who can destroy the opposing army, economy and political system.
Given the fact the Russia barely has committed any of its main army and advanced weaponry to the battle front while Ukraine scrambles like a beggar in the world market pleading for more money and more vehicles and more tanks, I believe that Russia has the edge. I am not privy to the military plans of the Russian military high command, but the Russian generals do not strike me as men driven by fear and reacting emotionally to tactical shifts on the ground.
They are planners and they keep those plans to themselves. I do not think Russia’s long history of surprising adversaries on the battlefield has come to an end. Anyone want to bet that Russia turned the lights off in Kherson before leaving?

https://sonar21.com/ukraine-is-not-an-episode-of-ukraines-got-talent/

Posted by: Down South | Nov 10 2022 7:36 utc | 396

Stonebird | Nov 10 2022 7:26 utc | 451
Ukraine telegram channels Legitimate and Resident.
https://t.me/s/legitimniy
https://t.me/s/rezident_ua
They have proved the most accurate information source by far as to what is happening in Ukraine.
US have been insisting on a major attack on Kherson for some time. It looks as though US has done a deal with Russia and US has ordered Ukraine to attack as Russia is pulling out purely for the visuals. No more money from EU for Ukraine as they are broke. England’s Indian ruler wont nswer Zelensky’s call plus UK is broke. And US wants to run off and attack China now. They found the bear a bit tough to chew.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 10 2022 7:42 utc | 398

Perimetr | Nov 10 2022 6:47 utc | 438
“……Macgregor thinks Blinken told his counterpart in Russia that the US will intervene if Russia attempts any large offensive”.
The U$ has been slowly boiling the frog installing military capability into NATO and MENA consistently for a year.
The arrival of a second carrier strike group to Europe, possibly into the Med (while an escalation disparaged @bar) is not probably the Russians want to ignore.
{* USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) current position off the coast of Azores.}
Yes yes yes, the Russians can sink both…. but not without both sides then immediately escalating to the Armageddon some Rapturists are salivating for.
FLIGHTRADER OSINT: WHAT’s been in the air across Europe from Spain to Scotland to Iceland and across Poland Romania to the Black Sea in the last 24hrs:
Repeat. This is *recorded/observed” activity in just 24hours.
There’s also likely activity that isn’t captured by OSINT:
-RAF P8 Poseidon ZP807
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint JAKE11
-US Army CL600 ARTEMIS BRIO68
-US Army RC-12X Guardrail YANK01
-US Army RC-12X Guardrail YANK02
-NATO E3A AWACS NATO11
-USAF KC135R 61-0267
-US Navy P8 Poseidon AE6821 heading back to Keflavik after a long mission off the coast of #Kaliningrad.
-USAF E8C Joint STARS PEACH75 inbound Keflavik #Iceland.
#Iceland
-US Navy P8 Poseidon AE6787
-US Navy P8 Poseidon AE6821
(#Norway)
-USAF MC-12W Liberty 09-0686
-SOCOM MC-130J Commando II 08-6205
– Andøya Space AS. Diamond DA62 LN-FTB
#Romania/#Bulgaria
-Turkish Air Force KC-135R TURAF10
-French Air Force KC-135R FAF4091
-Helenic Air Force EMB-145H AEW&C HAF380
#Mediterranean
aircraft LOBO09, Portuguese Air Force 601 Squadron anti-submarine warfare squadron
#Iraq:
-USAF RC135W Rivet Joint SAURN53
-USAF E11A BACN 11-9355
Extraneous:
>U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen en route to Delhi #India.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 7:48 utc | 400