Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?
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November 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195
Comments
Flashback: 24 Oct 2018, 22:45: https://tass.com/defense/1027736
“Thirteen drones moved according to common combat battle deployment, operated by a single crew. During all this time the American Poseidon-8 reconnaissance plane patrolled the Mediterranean Sea area for eight hours,”
“When these 13 drones faced our electronic warfare screen, they moved away to some distance, received the corresponding orders and began to be operated out of space and receiving help in finding the so-called holes through which they started penetrating. Then they were destroyed,”
Those who have eyes to see let them see. Ho-hummmm …
Posted by: Laurence | Nov 9 2022 21:39 utc | 201
Posters who were recently talking about how “Russia must take Odessa and go to the Polish border” – delusional.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 45
Patience. It is a difficult thing to learn for some.
Posted by: AParadiseLost | Nov 9 2022 21:40 utc | 202
Zanon – 12.”So I’d dry up [and put down the bong] if I were you and try to be more analytical in your judgements, stop trying to score cheap points and turn up when things are quiet or when the situation for ‘your side’ isn’t going well (most of the time infact) instead of lobbing trollisms when you think your side is winning.”
Posted by: steve brown | Nov 9 2022 20:16 utc | 188
______
Well put.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 21:49 utc | 203
“To say that Russia is more secure is batsh*t crazy.”
Precisely, which is why there is no way this move by the Russians signals a change in the Ukraine’s fortunes. This is like sitting on the beach and seeing the sea suddenly disappear into the distance, leaving fish flopping on what was the seafloor. This is where the smart people start running for the hills.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:50 utc | 204
the trolls are back in force.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 221
—
Yeah, but least they changed their style tactics in order to stay relevant and remain entertaining. Nothing is worse than a bore/boor, especially a troll.
Stage 1 almost always utilizes techniques geared toeards antagonizing and baiting their intended targets in an effort to capture, divert and annoy certain less experienced commenters.
Stage 2 is a classic zone flooding tactic used in both every major sport and on line forums. It attempts to overwelhm defenders and/or divert attention away from discussions at hand by simulating active conversation.
Stage 3 is what we’re seeing now; a higher, more sophisticated version of concern trolling. Here we take our same small group and/or sock puppet master, but instead of zone flooding, they utilize a analysis/concern script that attempts to raise questions and cause doubts.
Stage 3 actually mimicks real discussions, but they always give the game away by the sudden appearance if new commenter handles.
If they had the patience, they would first invest sufficient time and energy in developing reputable screen personalities that weee already engaged in discussions, but taking neither consistent pro or con positions.
Regardless, it definitely provides a bit of entertainment for the more discerning audience members, for which I applaud their efforts.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 9 2022 21:55 utc | 205
Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:32 utc | 223
Most have had the belief Russia intended an offensive to take Kherson at some point. I have always believed Russia would clear the Donbas then set up a line of control which it would stay on for years if necessary. Behind the Dnieper is a much better location for that long term LOC.
The faction in the US wanting to put the Ukraine war on hold has grown stronger in recent weeks. I suspect Sullivan and his Russian counterpart have concluded some form of agreement that has been negotiated for several weeks. Kherson bridgehead which Russia did not want for a long term LOC for Donbas. I think Ukraine will be seeing reduced supplies of military equipment giving Russia an easier run to take Donbas.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 9 2022 21:56 utc | 206
@RSH;
Best get the soap ready.
There will shortly be a peace deal cementing the new status quo.
Kherson returning to Kiev regime was one of the conditions.
“Grits” is imo correct. The technological advantages of NATO are immense.
But then, patience is not my strong point..
Posted by: Moaoberver | Nov 9 2022 21:56 utc | 207
[102]
There are also 700-kg warhead versions of the Iskander.
That is nowhere to be seen in the SMO…
——-
Plenty of Iskander’s have been used. I don’t know what warhead was used though.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 9 2022 21:58 utc | 208
Posted by: Seward | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 53
The people you named are all “Servants of the Oligarchs” …
What is needed is the comeback of Joseph Vissarionovitch, Serguei Petrovitch, Konstantin Konstantinovitch, Vassili Ivanovitch and Nikolai Fyodorovich.
They are all alive in the midst of the people.
They must rise up and take power now!
Enough lies, enough treason.
Народ, вставай!
Встава́й, страна́ огро́мная,
Встава́й на сме́ртный бой
С фаши́стской си́лой тёмною,
С прокля́тою ордо́й.
Пусть я́рость благоро́дная
Вскипа́ет, как волна́!
Идёт война́ наро́дная,
Свяще́нная война́!
Дади́м отпо́р души́телям
Всех пла́менных идей,
Наси́льникам, граби́телям,
Мучи́телям люде́й!
Припе́в
Не сме́ют кры́лья чёрные
Над Ро́диной лета́ть,
Поля́ её просто́рные
Не сме́ет враг топта́ть!
Припе́в
Гнило́й фаши́стской не́чисти
Заго́ним пу́лю в лоб,
Отре́бью челове́чества
Сколо́тим кре́пкий гроб!
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 9 2022 21:58 utc | 209
@207 bevin
“The Ukraine is very marginal to Russia’s current interests. Leaving aside the status of the Donbas oblasts which have rejoined Russia and Crimea, where the process began in 2014, Russia needs only to defend its borders, and Belarus’s from NATO aggression.”
I agree and that is why the launching of the SMO has been a mystery to me. NATO at Russia’s doorstep (forgetting the 3 Baltic Chihuahuas are already there) is not ideal, but did Russia seriously believe that Ukraine would be used as a springboard to invade Russia? Hypersonics there would be an issue, but if a lunatic in NATO wishes to do that, they could use the Baltics instead. What is even more perplexing is making this decision in light of Russia largely winning in Syria and implementing large LNG projects near the Arctic that would further enhance their economic position.
Putin (not to personalize this, and I know he is not omnipotent) potentially threw all of that away for what potential benefit? Would Ukraine have launched an offensive regardless? If so, let them and Russia would benefit from the fortifications they surely built in the Donbass. This would have also immensely complicated the West’s narrative / propaganda war.
The SMO felt like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted by: schmoe | Nov 9 2022 21:58 utc | 210
Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 21:08 utc | 213
He talks about possible future events where Shoigu takes advantage of situation and attacks or does something. But so far all retreats were permanent, no strategy behind. After weeks or months many are killed holding positions and then someone orders retreat. So X deaths are totally acceptable, but X+1 is the trigger for run like Americans from Afghanistan.
Let’s see who is right. I think the new general is simply the next stupid after previous stupids. He’ll sit over the river and do nothing, waiting for agreements at political level so that no one sees how dumb he is. Even night strikes are rare now. Iran doesn’t send drones anymore?
Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 21:59 utc | 211
One more thought:
War is about making the enemy do what you want, and not the enemy making you do what he wants.
In this instance, it is indisputably true that the Ukrainians have made the Russians do what Ukraine wants.
While it is true that retreating can spare your troops and equipment, while enabling you to inflict horrible losses on the enemy, a retreat is still a retreat and results in you doing what the enemy wants you to do, even if they don’t get much benefit from it.
Seizing Kherson won’t really benefit Ukraine that much, because the Russians can always retake it – when they have the means and the will to do so. But retreating was still a mistake because Russia had other options and chose not to implement them once the dam threat was realized. That is the mistake Russia made and there is simply no other way to view it.
As we in IT like to say, “If you can’t afford to do it right, you can’t afford to do it over.” Now Russia has to take Kherson all over again. It would have been better to prevent Ukraine from threatening the dam. It should have been part of the Russian operational plan to deal with that or similar threats. They didn’t. That, too, was a mistake.
Again, I think Russia will recover from this, and easily. But I call a mistake a mistake as I see it.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:59 utc | 212
Another horrible embarrassment for the anti-western war blogger community (Bernhard, Larry, Andrei, The Saker, The Duran, Gonzalo Lira, etc.) who didn’t see this coming and have been denying it until it happened, just like the retreats from Kiew, Kharkov and Liman. For 6 months you people have been telling us how Ukraine will collapse any minute now. That the attempt on Kiew was a brilliant feint. That Ukraine will never take Kherson.
I‘m hoping for some sober analysis of how you got it so wrong. Some important questions: Why isn‘t Russia using its air force more, e.g. to intercept weapons shipments from the west? Why did they advance into territories they couldn‘t hold? Why didn’t they mobilise sooner? How does Ukraine still have armor and men ready to die, despite wasting it like they have unlimited supply?
Posted by: Stalker | Nov 9 2022 21:59 utc | 213
One of the reasons I despise Martyanov more than any of the other obese obtuse blowhard blogger armchair generals is that he is so invested in the idea that he’s better than everyone else that he won’t allow even the slightest bit of dissent. The man is an idiot.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:25 utc | 24
“Any person capable of angering you becomes your master; he can anger you only when you permit yourself to be disturbed by him.”
Epictetus
Thanks for the Morning chuckle (philosophically speaking). Martinayov is always a good read.(to one with an open mind)
Posted by: AParadiseLost | Nov 9 2022 22:00 utc | 214
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 9 2022 21:58 utc | 239
LOL, that’s maybe one of the funniest comments I’ve ever seen here. No offense, Jimmy, but as many others have stated this isn’t a war fought for your (or anyone else here’s) entertainment. Russia isn’t taking into consideration the opinions or desire for instant gratification among Western armchair or keyboard generals and color commentators. They are doing what they feel is necessary given the situation on the ground.
Re: Kherson, they began evacuating civilians, when, a month ago? Do you or anyone else here know anything specific about the conditions there right now, other than what’s reported in the MSM or occasional (alleged) dispatches from the front lines via Telegram or TikTok? It seems straight forward enough, IMO.
I mean, seriously. I get your frustration with the seeming slow pace and seeming losses conceded by the Russians, but have some patience and don’t put so much emotion into something that none of us have any power whatsoever to know enough information about, much less to control.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 9 2022 22:11 utc | 215
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_DeH3-H4SQ
This was alluded to 3 weeks ago by General Sergey Surovikin and for the purpose of weathering Ukraine’s all-or-nothing offensive while preserving Russian manpower and equipment.
While Russian forces have successfully defended the city until now, even the slightest possibility of Ukrainian forces overwhelming Russian troops on the wrong side of the river would result in a defeat of historic proportions. Russia has now eliminated that possibility.
Meanwhile, Russian forces continue dismantling Ukraine’s national power grid, its air defense network, and what remains of its overstretched forces.
Ukraine fights for today’s headlines, Russia is fighting to win the long war.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Nov 9 2022 22:12 utc | 216
Posted by: Stalker | Nov 9 2022 21:59 utc | 244
Provide evidence that anyone with credible knowledge of the situation on the ground said Ukraine would collapse any moment now. I’m especially curious to see your cites where b (Bernhard) said this. It looks a lot like a straw man from here. The 300K troops called up haven’t even made it to the battlefield yet. If anything Russia is being too gentle, but even that opinion may be misguided because there are likely some negotiations going on behind the scenes by this point. Winter is coming and it’s the EU and Ukraine who are going to be doing the suffering.
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 9 2022 22:15 utc | 217
@244;
Good questions.
Again, the lack of clearheaded objective analysis anywhere is noticeable by its absence.
Pro western commentators make good points on occasion but it’s a lot of crap to wade through.
@243,
Because as Kissinger noted, Putins weakness is a sentimental belief in the “Russky mir”.
He totally lacks a scientific, Marxist understanding of the world, so believed in obvious nonsense, like expecting that half of Ukraine would meet the army with flowers, and that his oligarch friends were really misunderstood patriots who would never lie to him.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 22:16 utc | 218
It’s a Big defeat for Russia
Soon Ukrainians will have New troops trained equipped and supplied by NATO.
By March 2023 Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts will be Ukrainians. Maybe during this Time the Russians will have advanced of 100 meters in Bakhmut
Posted by: Abeille Flandres | Nov 9 2022 22:16 utc | 219
I lurk in the background and enjoy reading the lively conversations that are had…. Why are so many thinking this means Russia is beaten?
I’m not a military strategist but since Ukraine has their entire armies, stretched to the limit, trying to defend Kherson and Karkov districts would this not be the time to run 200,000 of the new troops to surround Kiev? Shut off all the power, water, communal heating, communications, fuel and food…. Kiev will fall or the Ukranians will have to pull all their forces to defend/liberate Kiev and leave the South open to Transnistria and the Karkov open to be taken…. The Russians activated 318,000 reserves, 70,000 volunteers, 50,000 army on maneuvers in the East, even Khaderov said he had another 70,000 that wanted a piece of this….
Russia is going to win this thing, provided that we don’t go Nuclear, even if NATO intervenes… Russia has not even activated their top of the line kit yet, I suspect not to give NATO a sneak peek….
Posted by: Mud Guru | Nov 9 2022 22:16 utc | 220
chet358 150
apparently not strong enough for transport…groups soldiers etc
Posted by: Jo | Nov 9 2022 22:19 utc | 221
What is tragic is that this will embolden EU and US, Nato militarly, it proved their strategy with sanctions and military support worked.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 56
Interesting point. An emboldened EU/US/Nato that fills in the vacuum area left by a retreating Foe. Red flags immediately go up for a novice, like myself. All too many tales of maneuver warfare where the adversary are positioned by guile. Much akin to chess if one has ever played.
So now the EU/US/Nato, with their might, press up against the retreating Rus?? I suspect the neck hairs on any animal would be standing, something is not right.
Posted by: AParadiseLost | Nov 9 2022 22:21 utc | 222
William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 221
_____
Thanks for your must-read comment.
Many here (including paid trolls and likely displaced Twitters) seem to share a myopic view of Kherson real estate itself as a pivotal fulcrum. Maybe it is; I don’t know the territory. I trust that Russian planners do. Crucial context here is the certainty that Russia knows, unequivocally, that ZATO is out to destroy it, break it up, loot it and move on to China. China knows this too; Taiwan machinations are utterly transparent. So how does occupying a specific piece of ground at all costs (call it “Kolbasa Hill”), including many peoples’ lives, factor in to Russia’s overarching strategy of sovereignty, restitution of international law, and a new multi-polar world? Again, I dont know, but I suppose Putin and Surovikin know a skosh more more than me (and new strategists flocking here). Can anyone seriously imagine Russia making any sort of deal with Jake Sullivan? Por favor! (See also Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:41 utc | 128; Saint Jimmy | Nov 9 2022 19:05 utc | 139)
Also, ISTM, the Kherson retreat was quite orderly with the pre-evacuation of 150,000 civilians, then followed with the withdrawal of armed forces — hardly an emergency retreat. Surovikin seems to be moving a lot of chess pieces around (w 300k in the wings), maybe sacrificing certain positions with an eye toward greater goals. Unfortunately he hasn’t yet answered my calls offering critical advice.
There seems to be much wailing and gnashing of teeth here, under sacloth and ashes. Some may be sincerly worried or defeatists, but others are curiously echoing the Empire’s lies about Russia’s failure and imminent defeat. Oh, ye of little faith, take heart. Trolls take off.
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 22:26 utc | 223
@Saint Jimmy;
It seems China carries the hope of mankind now.
As for Russia trends are ambiguous.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 22:26 utc | 224
All the videos of Ukrainian convoys trying to advance, shows them moving single file along tree lines on hard packed dirt roads. Apparently pretty common in Ukraine farmland. Then comes the Russian artillery. The Ukes try to maneuver but can’t. Disaster. As a former tanker I know how soft that farmland can be. My tank (M60A1) got stuck in Germany once. The right side of my tank was stuck all the way to the top of the right track. We had to get pulled out. And even that wasn’t easy. Imagine doing that while someone is trying to kill you. I know Ukraine has already taken horrible casualties in previous attempts on the Kherson area. Russia is casualty averse. They’ll sit back and drop artillery and missiles and drones for ever, if need be. Looks like a plan.
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 9 2022 22:28 utc | 225
The Russians had better get that “winter offensive” moving within the next four weeks and it better be a damn good one, or I wash my hands of them.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:32 utc | 223
A good hand washing is recommended during cold and flu season. The only “offensive” this winter will be how much EU citizens are offended by their government. See you in the spring.
Meanwhile watch the reruns of “As Ukraine Burns”.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 22:29 utc | 226
chet358 15/0 winter the Dnipro freezes over, usually after a 20-day spell of subzero temperature. The average freezing and thawing dates for Kyiv are 17 December and 24 March; for Cherkasy, 23 December and 22 March; for Zaporizhia, 5 January and 9 March; for Kherson, 3 January and 3 March. The ice regime is not stable: sometimes the Dnipro freezes for short intervals, and sometimes it does not freeze at all. Ice jams and floods resulting from them are rare because the freezing moves southward and the thawing northward
Posted by: Jo | Nov 9 2022 22:31 utc | 227
@ Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:57 utc | 105
There are no scorch-marks or fragmentation/shrapnel-wounds.
Posted by: John Kennard | Nov 9 2022 22:32 utc | 228
This message is respectfully directed to the owner or host of this website. I and,I might also assume many others, visit here to peruse your writer’s insights for further knowledge and understanding of the ongoing conflict.
My request is technical in nature to see if you could place the authors name at the top of each posting.
The reason I ask for this simple modification of the format is because as I’ve grown a regular reader, I’ve also learned who are and who are not those of which I am most interested in. Having the posters name on top will let readers such as myself know quickly those posters that I am interested and those which I may want to scroll further past.
Very respectfully
Posted by: Pongobabyboy | Nov 9 2022 22:32 utc | 229
@Featherless.
A surprise invasion of the Baltics from Belarus is an interesting proposal. NATO would be forced to mobilize to push Russia out, though. They would not confine their offensive actions to the Baltics but would be striking Russian forces all over Europe from Crimea to Kaliningrad.
@Tommy
The same problem as above. EMP attacks are overrated. The U.S. tested a nuclear bomb in outer space as an EMP weapon, and the most notable effects were on satellites. But, knocking out NATO satellites means fighting NATO directly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime#Aftereffects
Russian forces are in a tough spot. Their best move is probably to sit tight and stay on the defensive through the winter. Let the Ukrainians go on the offensive and take disproportionate losses. Meanwhile, degrade Ukraine’s infrastructure to create refugees and put pressure on Europe politically. At some point, Europe may collapse politically. At some point, Ukraine may run out of HIMARS at which point Russia could go back to its reliance on mass artillery. Or maybe some third thing will happen, like China invades Taiwan and U.S. has to send their HIMARS to Taiwan.
Posted by: GoFast | Nov 9 2022 22:43 utc | 230
I have read through all the comments and no one here connects the RA strategy to history lessons from WW2. An obvious lesson is the Battle of Stalingrad – the Germans had superior forces yet their determination to capture a large urban area was their downfall.
The German supply lines were stretched to their limit – no different than the US/NATO merc army of 2022. The Russians will simply not repeat Stalingrad with their backs against the Volga. The RA goal is to set a trap just like with the Germans in the winter of 1943 – allow the mercs to concentrate their forces and weaken their supply lines – then a massive counter attack either at Kherson or somewhere along the front. Suddenly the mercs are out flanked and trapped within urban areas with no means of resupply or retreat in the middle of winter.
Posted by: DannyO | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 231
The retreat will be bungled many Russian troops will be captured and paraded around. Putin is staking them out there to die and provoke internal unrest in Russia that will be exploited to break it apart. Putin is not trying to win because he is in on the scam against both Ukrainians and Russians. Once those countries are disabled the same us vs them scam will pit other semi independent countries against each other.
So the retreat is real but get ready for some very disappointing execution by the Russian command.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 232
It’s 2025 the russian army just withdrew from Rostov on Don and Belgorod but it was a strategic genius move to avoid losses. Proghozin the new leader of the russian federation decided to call up 50000 new hepatitis ridden prisoners to defend the motherland. Meanwhile, in the United States president Hershell Walker and his evangelical christian vice-president decided to allocate 300 million dollars to anti-abortion and immigration resource centers and 30 billions annually to Israel. He also got a fresh new boost from a gerrymandered GOP congress who just voted the largest defence budget in history at well over 1,8 trillion dollars. In his state of the union address Walker vowed to take moscow and that the buildup of a million capmerica kamikaze drones would overwhelm what little remained of Russian air defence systems…
Posted by: Boss Tweet | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 233
russia’s use of mobile artillery…what does the us call it…joint ops/combined arms? …russia uses mobile artillery in combination with overhead assets, glonass, drones, flir…russia’s rampant and relentless use of suicide drones has completely caught zato off guard and flipped the table…all of this is very positive for russian forces…but also at high price in blood and treasure fighting globo homo, the rest of us should honor the russian sacrifice in our own way.
Posted by: memo | Nov 9 2022 22:48 utc | 234
If Russia and US signed a deal, Russia knows the US won’t honour it, and are planning a contingency, and will let the US show itself on the world stage, once again, as agreement incapable, and will clobber the US with the contingency..
Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 22:52 utc | 235
THE DEAL:
1. Kherson and Zaparozhe will return to Kiev
2. In return, Kiev will recognise Lugansk and Donetsk as part of Russia
Conclusion: Russian success
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 22:54 utc | 236
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 265
To execute such a withdrawal, sequential defensive lines are needed. The one in the rear must always support the withdrawal from the one in front of it.
Naturally there is less time and effort to dig in so they are always less prepared and efficient compared to defense planned to be fixed and more or less permanent.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 22:55 utc | 237
Now, now, the general did say that some very hard decisions might have to be made around Kherson. I remember it distinctly.
I think some things from the Syrian model have been present here in Ukraine too from the beginning, since there too preservation of civilians and infrastructure are and have been a priority, and back and forth fighting has been common. Holding ground is not the objective.
I think it is clear that the Russians are not in a hurry to get this one over with either. And they are slinging plenty of bullshit too, I would say.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 9 2022 22:56 utc | 238
“Putin and his associates stole the foreign reserves, and the endless slaughter is on purpose to destroy society’s resistance to ever greater control on ever greater scale. If it doesn’t make sense just remember death is the point to make way for control. It’s essential Russia’s nukes and space capabilities are eliminated for this plan. Russia will nuke itself by the end. Putin has already hinted at it.”
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:39 utc | 202
My dear man (or woman) please get help soon. If you are already taking meds, stop it now and see a doctor immediately.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 22:58 utc | 239
Given the skeptical Ukrainian reaction, this is clearly not what they expected either.
Posted by: Farquad | Nov 9 2022 23:06 utc | 240
Posted by: Pongobabyboy | Nov 9 2022 22:32 utc | 262
Very respectfully,
From MAIN find the last post to the thread you are interested in on
the right side
Click on the NAME of the person who posted it.
That takes you to the last post in the thread, from here read the thread backwards. It can be very entertaining at times.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Nov 9 2022 23:08 utc | 241
THE DEAL:
1. Kherson and Zaparozhe will return to Kiev
2. In return, Kiev will recognise Lugansk and Donetsk as part of Russia
Conclusion: Russian success
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 22:54 utc | 271
Not really, Russia has already incorporated Kherson into the Russian federation, so he just says FU you’re on your own. Also, how does this “DEAL” that you dream about prevent harassment and terrorist attacks on the two Donbass Oblasts. Winter and summer are Russia’s best opportunities to wage an offensive war, I don’t think they are going to blow it on a phony “DEAL” that neither Ukraine or the US/NATO will honor. This is just a stalling exercise to get the MoD to miss their window of opportunity.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 23:08 utc | 242
@bar: re MARTYANOV. Imbibers here don’t gib a fuck about that bloviating boor.
He’s already had way too much of a mention in this thread. Forget him and move on.
oh. And I have Lira by name and nature as next on my bingo card for grifting irrelevancies to be unmasked as the opportunistic parasite that he is.
Spend your time and your dime with Brian Berletic at New Atlas and Mike at iEarlgrey – who has got up from behind the keyboard to take a buhanka of aid to Donbas.
Foolhardy. Yes. But he’s not making any claims about knowing anything… his “schtick” is that he *personally* wanted to do what he could – little as that is. One buhanka of blankets is not going to save the world. But it might assist a dozen Donbas people in a small way. And that’s something. Maybe focus on someone who is worthy of your attention.
Now:
WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:45 utc | 38
Russia failed to adhere to its initial “red line” no interference warning from the beginning, and then it was all over. Remember the early Kinzhal strike against the mercenary base in western Ukraine? That was supposed to deter NATO from involving itself in the western part of the country, and it failed.
Russia should have taken out rail lines, electric grids, etc. particularly in the west FROM THE BEGINNING. They should have stated that the use of US surveillance drones made the US a party to the war, and then should have taken out a drone. They did not effectively convey that they were serious about their warnings, and for this reason the US simply ignored them
Agree 100%
Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 17:23 utc | 78
I hope you are correct.
Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:29 utc | 81
“…The way the whole “SMO” has been handled is completely incomprehensible.
…And don’t get me started on “red lines”.
Yep.
> Ukrainian President’s office,Mykhailo Podolyak:
“……Ukraine is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.”
seems like the real military guys in the pentagon have ousted Team Tictok, who were fighting for clicks and likes on reddit.
By not fighting the SMO in a way recognisable to U$A … shock and awe and indiscriminate wanton destruction of the entirety of Ukraine within weeks…. Russia is now thought weak…. Like the YouTube of the old lion…The hyenas are laughing and circling … but for Russia, there is not a young member of the pride to arrive over the hill to join the fight….
People say Russia should have fought for the Donbas republics in 2014. And back when I used bother to reply, I’d say: Russia was in no position to do so.
In Feb 2022 Russia decided the build up of NATO on its borders was an existential threat… and acted.
But. Russia made a fundamental error in not pounding western Ukraine..Lvov every time the himars hit Donetsk city. Lvov and the railway from there to Kiev should by now be obliterated. Reducing Lvov so that “no two bricks sat on top of each other” as per LeMay in North Korea……both Poland and the Rest of The West would well understand that kind of kinetic “negotiation”, and this waste of young men’s lives would already be an entry in the history books.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 9 2022 23:10 utc | 243
It’s really looking like Putin made a backroom deal with the USA. If so, he is a disgusting traitor and he needs to hang for it.
Posted by: FVK | Nov 9 2022 23:21 utc | 244
It’s like double down on ‘Bizarro world’ in this thread today.
Posted by: Forest | Nov 9 2022 23:24 utc | 245
RSH@223. what causes you to suppose the war in ukraine was intended to be short? if it is a war with the empire of lies chaos & evil, why would it serve russia to make short work of claiming ukraine, fully or partially? many of said the empire of lies is wanting to cool ukraine so it can dolly back & focus on china…israel wants to engage or own syria & iran. i suspect it serves the axis of resistance to drag the confrontation out, time to position well, develop weapons still on the horizon, stalk up on everything all the while depleting the empire of evil, lies & chaos’ reserves, both militarily & financially.
peterAU1@236, thank you for your posts, & your telegram site. stay well, you are needed & a light.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Nov 9 2022 23:26 utc | 246
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 23:08 utc | 277
Of course, I see what you’re saying
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 23:31 utc | 248
My dear man (or woman) please get help soon. If you are already taking meds, stop it now and see a doctor immediately.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 22:58 utc | 274
My sympathies are actually with the Russians, but looking at facts I think a harsh assessment is necessary. Remember the whole thing started with Biden proclaiming Russia would invade before it did, and then amazingly they did. Poorly and without nearly enough force, and its been a long downhill slide from one perplexing decision after another, and untimely at that. British tabloids actually printed the battle plans ahead of time, almost like it was a foregone conclusion, like Russia’s foreign policy was being dictated to them.
like the whole thing could’ve been avoided in 2014 when ukraine lost almost the whole coast, with Odessa on the edge as well as the eastern republics already fully liberated begging for inclusion into Russia. But nope, a full 8 years for Ukraine to get ready then he does it? Baffling until you consider that hes betraying Russia, and has been for a while.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 23:33 utc | 249
Please note:
Unlike the ukranians, Russia does not treat its soldiers as meat for a grinder.
Hence, the new mobilised troops will be safe knowing they are NOT meat for a grinder like the ukranians. Russia will retreat rather than waste precious lives.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 23:34 utc | 250
The lack of forward motion for Russia in Ukraine might be because the diplomatic progress of the new multipolar world is
experiencing teething problems.
I cannot see any cultural bonds between Russia and China or Russia and India. But SMO is primarily an assertion of Russian cultural identity over European Nazism.
Hindu Nationalism and Chinese Communusm are quasi fascist and they may feel some sympathy towards the Nazi mindset.
How does Russia make an alliance with countries like these? Surely the great but much oppressed European Left, South and North American Lefts are the natural allies of Putin? Russia’s naturalfriends have been hunted to extinction by ALT Right politics of USUKIS?
Daily reports of a Russian meatgrinder may put off the Western Liberal Left , while simultaneously scaring China and India.
Russia , as ever , has been deliberately isolated and ostracised by mad, Alt right,resetting Western US Stooges.
This is the Great Game, to deprive weeping
Lefties of political unity, by attacking Russia. The nutters OF USUKIS are certainly evil enough to destroy the vestiges of the socialism that Thatcher once called dead.
Posted by: Giyane | Nov 9 2022 23:34 utc | 251
Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 22:26 utc | 255
Thank you, Doug, that was very well put. The MoA isn’t taking my call either, but the one thing that we can all be sure of is that the Russian MoA isn’t running away. You don’t need mobilization to do that. The Nazi led government of Kiev is dangerous and desperate. RT has recently updated their story about the Kherson pull back to the left bank of the Dnieper River, and I think it confirms my opinion that this is not a retreat but a tactical holding operation to save lives. The Crybabies and the Trolls be dammed.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 23:34 utc | 252
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 23:34 utc | 285
If they manage to inflict some decent losses during the planned retreat and maintain small attrition rate for themselves, combined with continuous stream of more mobilized coming in the rear, this creates a set of excellent conditions for continuing the operation. UAF may get over confident and over extend.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 23:41 utc | 253
@Don Bacon 200
You wrote:
“I say that a reader with military experience would never claim that numbers of untrained poorly led unmotivated conscripts would constitute a threat to an opposing force which is trained,equipped and motivated.”
So you seem to be saying that the 300,000 reservists that Russia just called up are untrained and no threat to the Ukrainian forces?
The Russian reservists were previously trained for a year, and now that they’ve been called up, they’ve been given additional training. As I pointed out in a prior post, they have a lot more reserves who could be called up and given additional training, then deployed.
Using your reasoning, the U.S. forces, which received far less training, would have had no chance against the professional German army in WWII, but as we know, that didn’t turn out to be true.
Are you basically saying Russia has no chance of winning because their leaders and soldiers are no good?
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 23:41 utc | 254
Time to reread what general Surovikin just “announced” on October 18, as now we know what he meant with a difficult decision.
Actually, he doesn’t say much. Just:
Defence, defence, defence, grinding Ukraine soldiers down. If that is the strategy, well, he keeps true to it. Not very spectacular, or actually, quite spectacular, not giving much to international opinion and also back home. Obviously he has the backing of his superiors. Maybe that is why they changed the horse mid term.
So nothing said of a big winter offensive.
For Ukraine, it is similar to Napoleon in Moscow. Like now what?! What can they do with Kerson. Not much, it is empty, or, it will be empty. And they still have to get it. Again, for what now? Not counting on a trap, of course. Now what else can the Ukraine army do to retake the rest? I think not much. If Surovikin is right, that they have a 7-8 to 1 kill rate, and let’s say Russia now has soon a 500’000 man army there, Ukraine would need 3.5 million soldiers to even out. So the defensive strategy makes sense.
Mr. Hack saying Russia is doing what the enemy wanted them to do, I am not sure that is true or even important. If the Russians were cornered for the sake of this city, they can rebuild it. In this case, they offered the residents a new home anywhere in Russia they choose. So doesn’t it mean that they basically gave up on the city? Mind you, they have a long history of relocating people. And rebuilding. Grosny, now Mariopol, just two recent examples.
So if the enemy wanted them to stay in the trap, wasn’t it the right thing to get out and take a position of their choosing? So Russia is digging in now, and waiting for the enemy to come. Now will Ukraine do what their enemy wants them to do? Which side would you take? I think Russia improved their position. And now what can Ukraine do? I think now Russia can decide, to wait or strike when and where they want. Even if they wait, now kinda Russia has the initiative. Even if Russia doesn’t attack. Because Ukraine is condemned to do something.
Posted by: C | Nov 9 2022 23:47 utc | 255
This certainly doesn’t look good. The Ukies are attacking even after maybe 100,000 dead, virtually all their heavy equipment destroyed, no air cover, economy ruined. The initiative has been surrendered to Washington and its vassals, who spend every waking hour trying to dream up more fake atrocities, more hoaxes, more terrorism. Russia really needs to stop f*****g around – if it just values the lives of its people at all.
Posted by: Paul | Nov 9 2022 23:49 utc | 256
“The general who thoroughly understands the advantages that accompany variation of tactics knows how to handle his troops”.
Sun Tzu
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 23:59 utc | 257
The simplest answer is the most likely. Russia has no offensive planned and is settling in for the winter, south of the Russian Dnieper.
Posted by: Kirk | Nov 10 2022 0:00 utc | 258
@ OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 23:41 utc | 289
Again, readers who lack military experience don’t have a clue about what it takes to arm, train and deploy a military force with combat units enjoying full logistical support and capable of success. So they make stuff up, like: “The Russian reservists were previously trained for a year” and “the mere threat of the dam being blown has made the Russians pull out” etc. (But we won’t call them trolls.)
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 0:06 utc | 259
This has morphed into Russia fighting a proxy war with NATO while unable to hit back at NATO proper. It is not a winnable situation for Russia.
I think Russia is looking for ways to end this conflict. It has no reason to exist for them any longer as it is guaranteed that they will live isolated from the West and with NATO at their doorstep. Why waste any more lives? Better to negotiate and achieve some results for the better of all, like nuclear inspections and anti missile treaties, than to use lives for goals that are not attainable.
The relative measurement of the forces and capabilities between Russia and NATO is already done. They know where they stand, I think there is somewhat more respect for Russias strength now in the West than before. Of course it came at a great cost in lives and image but it is now done. Each party knows what their strengths and weaknesses are, what to work on and what not. They can now focus on how to pare each other and there seems to be flexibility in NATO about territory like Crimea.
I would take this opportunity to put an end or at least freeze the conflict but with some strategic agreements on the table re nuclear forces, missiles, submarines etc. Let cooler heads prevail.
Posted by: alek_a | Nov 10 2022 0:07 utc | 260
@Zanon 194
Add it to the list of
1. Denazification: while the nazi regime has been completely untouched, week not one nazi official eliminated. From Elensky to a city mayor, not one has been destroyed. Instead Russia has been “willing to negotiate” since March.
2. Demilitarisation. What demilitarisation? The nazi regime is awash with weapons and despite all the talk of how the west is running out of weapons to send there is no sign of the tap being turned off.
3. Neutrality. That’s the funniest because Ukranazistan is now more preempt controlled by NATO than at any time ever.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 0:12 utc | 261
As others have commented that, whilst Zelensky jumped on it, many in the Ukrainian Military are regarding this announcement with caution, definitely having a good look in the mouth of this gift horse. In particular, they will be concerned that up to today Russia has resisted fiercely any attack and now they are expected to believe that these forces will suddenly withdraw.
At this time of year the only practical way to move is down the roads, due to mud and minefields, All of which will be preset on one side into Russian artillery and drone system computers based on the east side of the Dneiper, whilst on the other, Ukrainian artillery covering the same areas all the way to the west bank of the river. In a way this potentially turns the whole area into a kind of no-mans land, with light recce forces and UAVs roaming over it.
The timing is interesting, as it seems likely that the Russians could have continued as they are for a while yet but instead they have knowingly handed Zelensky on a plate the victory of forcing them back east of the Dneiper which he can take as a big positive to the G20 in 10 days.
As Russia has already announced that they are getting out, which the World will believe, there is even the strong possibility that the Ukrainians will not actually need to risk lives and equipment to, at least prior to that meeting, fully capture the area.
The next week or so will show but it does look possible that Kherson, maybe by agreement actual or tacit, will now become a relative ‘backwater’ until the Spring, with both sides moving forces east to the Donbas.
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 10 2022 0:13 utc | 262
The retreat was planned long time ago, I don’t understand why many are so confused or disappointed about this, probably the know USA will use nukes in Kherson or similar, remember that Nato was hacked and the total Nato Ukraine’s battle plans was achieved, if you know you are going to get hit in the face, you take a step back, except for the strategy of Ukraine. My assessment is Kharkov offensiv and also against the Polish border, then Kiev have to give up and hand over Odessa and everything east of Dnieper. It’s a brilliant move, don’t fear, Russia has it in the bag, this is to avoid something that we peasants know nothing about.
Posted by: gimmeabreak | Nov 10 2022 0:15 utc | 263
@alek_a 295:
This has been a proxy war of NATO versus Russia since the Maidan coup.
Then Russia could have won in two days by airlifting two divisions into Kiev, smashing the nazi regime, and withdrawing after putting a friendly government in power. This is what do many of us has been eagerly expecting and waiting for. And when it didn’t we had also predicted precisely this outcome.
So either Putin knows nothing about weekdays going on next door or else he’s incompetent.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 0:17 utc | 264
alek_a @ 295
“This has morphed into Russia fighting a proxy war with NATO while unable to hit back at NATO proper. It is not a winnable situation for Russia.”
Russia has plenty of ways of hitting back at NATO proper, but is seemingly lacking the courage to do so. For one, they could start announcing official NATO casualties in their daily briefings–it doesn’t even need to be true. They could also start by striking the embassy of a NATO country in Kiev. Neither action would set off WW3.
More broadly, perhaps the Russians should reconsider their idea that it is their responsibility, and only their responsibility, to deescalate with NATO. Perhaps Russia should escalate and NATO, for once, should be the one to deescalate?
Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Nov 10 2022 0:18 utc | 265
alek_a | Nov 10 2022 0:07 utc | 295
Wishful thinking on your part. Both Russia and the United States can tolerate the status quo for another decade at least. China for twice as long. Europe, not so much. Ukraine for another year or so, then maybe the Poles can be front and center.
Posted by: Gugg | Nov 10 2022 0:21 utc | 267
If Ukraine takes Kherson doesn’t it mean it has invaded Russia proper ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 10 2022 0:23 utc | 268
Ha ha, that obese fraud is taking the opportunity of Kherson to not just call us all “ipso trolls” but to…push his book.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/11/about-kherson.html?m=1
It’s hilarious that people actually take this character seriously about anything. He’s like an astrologer telling you that the bad times will pass, just buy this lucky charm.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 0:24 utc | 269
So he died defending our freedoms… really meaning the freedom of Ukrainians and foreign war tourists to shoot at Russian speaking Ukrainians with impunity for the past 8 years.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 21:28 utc | 220
No it’s about Premier Scott’s fredoom, in his views we have liberty, which is not freedom, and is “citizens” which means corporate slave, this has gotten a new meaning now when bigpharma will own the jabbed as corporate property, as it seems the new race Homo Borg Genesis, don’t have human rights,as its a hybrid, that is not human anymore.
Posted by: gimmeabreak | Nov 10 2022 0:25 utc | 270
@303 “If Ukraine takes Kherson doesn’t it mean it has invaded Russia proper ?”
Yep. Somehow the West seems to think that the Russians will just… I dunno…. give up.
Not going to happen. Putin has no authority to make it happen.
The Russians are withdrawing from Kherson, and then they’ll come back and take it again.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 10 2022 0:27 utc | 271
Donbass Lives Matter | Nov 10 2022 0:18 utc | 300
You are very correct. The war in Ukraine is an insignificant blip, as important to the overall scheme of things as the Saar offensive was to the seecond world war. The only pressure for settlement is coming from Europe. Both Russia and the U.S. can go on like this for years, certainly for longer than it took to fight the second world war.
Posted by: Gugg | Nov 10 2022 0:29 utc | 272
“[T]he whole thing could’ve been avoided in 2014 when Ukraine lost almost the whole coast, with Odessa on the edge as well as the eastern republics already fully liberated begging for inclusion into Russia. But nope, a full 8 years for Ukraine to get ready then he does it? Baffling until you consider that his betraying Russia and has been for a while.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 23:33 utc | 284
Hold on Cowboy, you missed a few steps and misrepresented a lot of important facts.
(1). After Kiev facist regime (appointed by the US) militarily attacked the people of the Donbass region killing many thousands, told them they must stop reading and speaking Russian, and stop worshiping in their Russian Orthodox Churches. Both the DPR and LPR voted to declare themselves independent of the Kiev dictatorship and form a militia to resist the Nazis.
(2.) Russia, Germany, France, (the Trilateral Group representing OSCE) and Ukraine met in Belarus and produced the Minsk Protocols that would give the Eastern Oblast (with majority Russian speaking citizens) a certain amount of anatomy. The majority of the DPR and the LPR agreed, but Ukraine, France, and Germany drug the whole affair out for eight years while the US and NATO began training the AFU for a war with the Donbass.
(3) This AFU attack on the LPR and DPR was about to happen in the days leading up to February 24, 2022. During those previous eight years, Russia was also preparing for the NATO / Russia conflict that they were pretty sure was coming: In 2014 Russia was not prepared for a confrontation with the US and NATO, but in February of 2022 they had no choice.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 0:29 utc | 273
@306
“The Russians are withdrawing from Kherson, and then they’ll come back and take it again.”
Your username is the perfect sarcastic response to this sentence.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 0:29 utc | 274
Please note:
Since the 2014 illegal coup in Kiev, Ukrane has degenerated into a ruined state, dependent on a continuous stream of western financial aid. This is the fault of its leadership, not its people. The leaders, from Poroshenko to the fruit and nut cake Zelensky, have deceived the people of ukrane.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 10 2022 0:31 utc | 275
Big mistake. Can’t put lipstick on this pig.
The US spent $4 trillion in Afghanistan and 4$ trillion in Iraq. Once we put in $50 billion to kick Ukraine off I knew we would be in for a long war because this is not just about Ukraine and Russia, it is about a multipolar world which Russia is championing all by itself at the moment. As long as the US can connive someone into bloodying Russia’s nose, we (with the bankers insistence) will gladly put up the money to stop this insolent attempt to have a multipolar world. Maybe it takes $10 trillion this time. But so what? This mistake just provides an even bigger excuse to open the money spigot.
Now if the other players in this multipolar endeavor really mean it, they may have to step up and support Russia. The western bankers have fought these kinds of battles for 400 years and they are not going to give up without a fight. So China, India, are you going to help Russia militarily? Iran seems to be doing its part. But what about you guys? Are you serious about a multipolar world or not? For whatever reason, Russia is struggling on its own.
Posted by: davidgmillsatty | Nov 10 2022 0:33 utc | 276
” The SMO felt like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Posted by: schmoe | Nov 9 2022 21:58 utc | 241 ”
” When Germany attacked France, Heinz Guderian made blitzkrieg come true. By disobeying orders and relentlessly driving his men and tanks as far as they could go, he wrecked havoc, far beyond the expected front line. His disregard for orders amid the fog of war, meant that the Jews in the Nazi high command were not immediately able to intervene, to prevent Guderian’s quick and stunning victory.
Guderian advanced an astonishing 250 miles across enemy terrain in only eleven days. Then, on May 24, 1940, with his Panzer forces at Gravelines, only ten miles from Dunkirk, Hitler himself, ordered that the tanks were to halt. Guderian’s forces were within hours of capturing more than 200,000 soldiers of the British Expeditionary Force, along with some 100,000 French soldiers. The order was received with disbelief. General von Kleist, stated that on receiving the order, “I decided to ignore it, and to push on across the canal. But then came a more emphatic order that I was to withdraw behind the canal. My tanks were kept halted there for three days.”
By having Hitler order Guderian’s tank divisions to sit on their hands while Dunkirk was evacuated, the PTB were able to prevent the complete and utter destruction of the trapped French and British armies, thus keeping alive the possibility of a two-front war. However, although the Hitler was able to rescue some 335,000 men, all their tanks and equipment were lost.
When outraged German generals demanded to know why they were being prevented from forcing the complete surrender of the defeated armies, the Hitler prattled on about his admiration for the British Empire and its importance as an essential element of world stability. Hitler did not explain why it was so important to let the hundreds of thousands of troops escape immediately, rather than say, to capture them, and later release them after having extracting various concessions. Indeed, how could he? This incident alone, should have given Hitler away as the enemy, however, the Germans, naive to such monumental deception, kept obeying orders, and in the end, it was only thought that Hitler was insane. ”
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 10 2022 0:39 utc | 277
(But we won’t call them trolls.)
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 10 2022 0:06 utc | 294
OK! What do you call them? Do you think that it all over for Russia? They should (or even could) turn their tail and run like rabbits. Perhaps I misunderstood your concern, but if I were Putin, I wouldn’t want to be responsible for the Russian loss of life so far in the so-called SMO, without putting up a damn good fight first. He might as well blow his brains out unless he makes a very God damn good deal with the US and Zelensky. What are the chances?
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 0:53 utc | 278
It maybe that for tactical and strategic reasons, Russia wants to stretch this out.
They get to fine tune the SW for the S400 system for the Hymars and Acram systems and observe the performance of NATO counter battery systems as well as various vehicles….all the while bleeding NATO dry.
Just speculating.
In the mean time, Ukraine and Europe will still be freezing in the dark.
Thoughts?
john
Posted by: jserink | Nov 10 2022 0:53 utc | 279
Right or left bank? The reports always say that the Russian army is retreating to the left bank. If I look at a map, Kherson is on the left bank (west of the river) and the area of retreat of the Russian army is on the east. So on the right side. So what does right bank and left bank refer to? To the map view or the view from Moscow?
Posted by: Uwe | Nov 10 2022 0:57 utc | 280
“His disregard for orders amid the fog of war, meant that the Jews in the Nazi high command were not immediately able to intervene, to prevent Guderian’s quick and stunning victory.”
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 10 2022 0:39 utc | 312
Comic book history, where do you learn this kind of junk? Really, Jews in the Nazi high command?
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 1:01 utc | 281
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 10 2022 0:39 utc | 312
If I am not mistaken, later on, Hitler ordered a pause in the Russian offensive which was the cause of the German debacle and defeat on that front. It gave Russia time to ship scores of conscripts from eastern republics using Lend-Lease wilisses (jeeps) and prevented the German from reaching and taking Moscow before the terrible winter.
Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 10 2022 1:04 utc | 282
If there is any truth, that the dam could be destroyed, in turn flooding Kherson, trapping Russian troops and killing civilian then any occupying force from the other side faces ….hmm……the same issue. Perhaps now would be a good time for Canada to send the Ukrainians it’s North Atlantic Dorey Fleet.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 10 2022 1:13 utc | 283
THIS SITE APPEARS TO BE FUCKED UP.
IT IS JUST BLOCKING COMMENTS AND WIPING THEM OUT FOR NO REASON.
IT IS A COMPLETE WASTE OF TIME TRYING TO POST HERE
Posted by: paul | Nov 10 2022 1:13 utc | 284
My understanding is Putin left himself wriggle room with the legislation (or decree or whatever it’s called) concerning Kherson region (and I believe Zaporozhye region) joining the Russian Federation. Unlike Donetsk and Lugansk which had their boundaries specified as that of the oblasts, the boundaries of Kherson and Zaporozhye were not specified. It was ridiculous but even at the time obvious why it was done that way. Russia was keeping it’s options open.
Posted by: Mike314159 | Nov 10 2022 1:17 utc | 285
Hi Ed thanks for the reply.
your points are all correct, but further down the timeline from when Maidan happened to when a cease fire and the considerably shrunken borders of the LPR and DPR were frozen. The DPR has slavianks and kramatorsk for instance at the beginning, and I bet some people would’ve given their left nut to start the war from there. Russia didnt belatedly intervene until the whole thing was about to collapse and a cease fire was implemented, then the minsk accords happened. Initially though the DPR and LPR had much more territory at the start of the rebellion and Odessa was primed for a Russian intervention, which of course didnt happen, golden opportunities squandered. At most you could say it was from an excess of caution, but given the wars progression increasingly looks like they were sold out until domestic political pressure produced the barest of Russian interventions.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Nov 10 2022 1:22 utc | 286
Comic book history, where do you learn this kind of junk? Really, Jews in the Nazi high command?
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 1:01 utc | 316
It wouldn’t surprise me considering what I learned about Hitler reading his widely acclaimed biography by British historian John Toland.
Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 10 2022 1:24 utc | 287
Comic book history, where do you learn this kind of junk? Really, Jews in the Nazi high command?
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 1:01 utc | 316
It wouldn’t surprise me considering what I learned about Hitler reading his widely acclaimed biography by British historian John Toland.
Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 10 2022 1:24 utc | 322
Actually Hitler was responsible for keeping Gueridan(sp?) away from the British expeditionary force at dunkirk. They were completely helpless Hitler let them escape to pave a peace deal, was his reasoning, but really you gonna trust Hitler?
Also he insisted on delaying Barbarossa until he had expelled the British from greece and Crete, despite his generals advice. And someone decided not to give them war weather gear. After all occupying the country can be done from indoors right? lol. Really when did everyone get so gullible and naive? Oh yeah and Yugoslavia as well. Yup sound strategy.
You could go on with getting a massive army trapped in North africa later. They could’ve really been used at Stalingrad.
Kherson, it has been said, is the new Stalingrad. Ponder this carefully.
Posted by: neofeudalfuture | Nov 10 2022 1:34 utc | 288
The dangers of losing escalation dominance
- To win, Russia needs to have escalation dominance.
- Russia does not have escalation dominance, if she is not prepared to escalate when needed.
Withdrawing from Kherson city will not bring about peace. The West will see any conciliatory action by Russia as a sign of weakness and an invitation to escalate.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 10 2022 1:34 utc | 289
Well my sources in the FSB and MoD are telling me, under condition of anonymity, that there is a major counter-attack about to be launched culminating in the total defeat of Ukraine.
Yes that’s right. Putin is implementing a cunning military strategy based on the already successful Kharkiv and Kherson tactics, wherein all Russian and Allied forces will retreat back to the February 2022 Russian Borders.
Putin will then simply declare the SMO a complete success and the defeat of the Kiev regime as another great Russian Victory over the Nazis.
Unless Biden and Nato immediately agree then Putin will threaten them with a Special Military Operation in Ukriane.
Nato will run back to Brussels with their tails between their legs. You know it makes sense.
Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 10 2022 1:39 utc | 290
Posted by: emersonreturn | Nov 9 2022 23:26 utc | 281
“RSH@223. what causes you to suppose the war in ukraine was intended to be short?”
I don’t. I said they need to get on with it. Not the same thing. But the goal of this war is to take Ukraine and put Russian strategic weapons in western Ukraine opposite the NATO Aegis Ashore installations in Poland. In other words, to achieve at least partially the security goals laid out in the December, 2021 treaty proposals. Russia said then that if the West didn’t agree to them, Russia would reproduce the “five-to-ten-minute threat” that those installations posed. That is what Ukraine is really all about, as is the placement of strategic weapons in Belarus, already announced.
So Russia needs to get on with it. This doesn’t have to take two years. If it wasn’t for those eastern fortifications built over eight years and a resulting 1,200km front line, this war would be over by now. Those lines are cracking now, that front needs to be finished off, which is why 300,000 reservists are being called up.
So get the hell on with it. Pulling back from Kherson over a flood threat is excessive caution and a fucking mistake. Either deal with the dam threat or admit you can’t. “Dealing” with it by retreating may be a cheap “victory” but if it makes you have to retake Kherson all over again later, it’s a fucking mistake.
There should have been a contingency plan for this long ago – and retreat should not have been it.
I would be happy to go to Moscow and advise Shoigu on what are realistic risks. There will be a fee involved for my services. 🙂
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 10 2022 1:41 utc | 291
I’m surprised the unusual timing of the following events is hardly discussed, and yes, I’m one that believes Moscow originally intended to take Kiev in a rapid decapitation attack, but then something happened.
Russian spearhead to capture Kiev begins Feb 24. By 5 March, a large Russian convoy, reportedly 64 kilometers (40 mi) long, is ready to pounce on Kiev. . Russian forces continued to advance on Kyiv from the northwest, capturing Bucha, Hostomel, and Vorzel by by March 5. The same day the Israeli PM makes the unprecedented rapid visit to Moscow for talks with Putin in regards to ” stopping the bloodshed “. We all know Israelis only care about themselves so this was a highly unusual trip and meeting. By march 11 the huge attack convoy had dispersed and all Russian troops left the Kiev area. On March 16 Ukrainian forces began their miraculous counter-offensive to repel Russian forces.
Coincidence or Cohencidence ?
Posted by: Deplorable Commissar | Nov 10 2022 1:50 utc | 293
William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 221
Gruffman, I hope you are correct.
William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:50 utc | 233
Again. I hope you are correct.
DannyO | Nov 9 2022 22:44 utc | 264
I hope you are correct
Pongobabyboy | Nov 9 2022 22:32 utc | 262
Monikers first; “pearls” second.
Oh how we have begged, pleaded, tantrumed over years.
The bar owner does not do requests….
Uwe | Nov 10 2022 0:57 utc | 315
Tis said “war is how U$ learns geography. Better to think of the “moscow” side of river, and the LvovRamsteinBrusselsLondon side.
Ed Nelson | Nov 10 2022 1:01 utc | 316
“……Really, Jews in the Nazi high command?”
Ed, you have a whole huge rabbit-hole of hidden history to explore.
Note. Posters still now arrive here scornful that the Jew Zelensky and his Jewish patrons and jewish ministry can knowingly and wilfully support RightSector and Azov and the Stepan Bandera thugs. But the informed know the facts as they are.
Germany was eviscerated in the 1919 Treaty of Versailles. And yet, 20 years later is a military powerhouse….. how? Who funded?
Many times barflies post sources that explain this. I discovered Anthony Sutton many years prior. Even if you eventually decide to reject the evidence presented…at least you’ll be better informed about that which never appears in the history books… a ‘history” written | fabricated by the “victors” of WW2.
You see for yourself the misinformation and outright fabrication happening right now re events in Ukraine… and that’s with the internet available to “fact” check the western msm narrative. The “history” of WW2 has similarly been fabricated and obfuscated…. With 70++ years of repetition of the prescribed “truth” and elimination of the actual “truth”.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Nov 10 2022 1:53 utc | 294
Saint Jimmy | Nov 10 2022 1:54 utc | 331
The purpose was self-evident. It kept Kiev from sending more troops to Mauripol and the Azov for reasonable fear of attack on the capital. Very common military tactic.
Posted by: Ian | Nov 10 2022 1:58 utc | 295
Sun Tzu said:
The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 10 2022 1:59 utc | 296
Yes, if it was a “feint” then why withdraw? Keeping the troops there would compel the nazis to defend Kiev at the cost of the Donbass and Southern fronts.
And taking Kiev is off extreme military importance apart from the political and psychological imperative of capturing the enfant capital. Kiev is a transport hub. Take it, and the nazis can no longer hold Kherson or the Lugansk front.
But of course if you ask these logical questions you’re a “troll” according to the Putin worshippers here.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 2:01 utc | 297
@DannyO 264
Did you miss the part where in WWII the USSR was actually trying to defeat the enemy by all means possible?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 10 2022 2:06 utc | 298
Bottom line: I consider this a dumb move and it will bite the Russians much harder than Kharkiv did. The Russians had better get that “winter offensive” moving within the next four weeks and it better be a damn good one, or I wash my hands of them.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:32 utc | 223
I agree it is a dumb move, and as much as it pains me to say this, I doubt that there is a “winter offensive” coming.
Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 10 2022 2:07 utc | 299
…which is why there is no way this move by the Russians signals a change in the Ukraine’s fortunes. This is like sitting on the beach and seeing the sea suddenly disappear into the distance, leaving fish flopping on what was the seafloor. This is where the smart people start running for the hills.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:50 utc | 233
Thanks, Mr. Gruff. I need read no further.
Posted by: juliania | Nov 10 2022 2:11 utc | 300