Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

 

 

Comments

Fellow Barflies ;
Recall that the Ukrainian Civil War is but a sideshow in this long Global War we have entered.

Posted by: Exile | Nov 9 2022 18:14 utc | 101

I have always maintained that the Russians are all bark and no bite. The fact is, since September they have not won a single battle. Areas that they fought for months to gain were taken back in hours. I have been hearing many bloggers saying that Ukraine has lost its fighting ability, it is running out of artillery etc. That was plain foolishness. This is the biggest blow the Russians will ever face, this is going to lead to the Russians facing serious problems in Crimea as Ukraine will now dam the canals again. This is embarassing, Zelenksky is making Putin look foolish. Why did they bother to anex a region that they could not hold and how will this affect the people of Kherson and the other annexed regions. Are they going to withdraw too? This was all a grand waste of time and waste of lives.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Nov 9 2022 18:18 utc | 102

During WWII, before modern technology, the Russians fielded superb meteorologists. They could read snow, ice, mud, melting phases, wind patterns et al..

Posted by: Carmen Grayson | Nov 9 2022 18:18 utc | 103

🇷🇺 Kadyrov – about leaving Kherson:
Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were actually surrounded. After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.
Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly – he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.
The fact that Kherson is a difficult combat territory was known to everyone from the very first days of the special operation. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.
Therefore, I think that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism.

The only strategic value of Kherson is jumping off point towards Krivoi Rog and Odessa. Which are clearly out of the cards until Ugledar, Zaporizhe, Lugansk, Donetsk and surroundings are cleared up. Russia in this sense lost nothing except maybe in the western MSM delusions. They can continue killing UAF and Zato mercs in Donbass in overwhelming numbers, where they have rubble for roads, railways and electricity connections.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 18:19 utc | 104

What if Russia made a deal with Poland on the sly…
Let Poland have whichever Western Ukraine oblasts wanted (referenda) to join Poland, in exchange of :
Poland either leaving NATO, or at least agreeing not to put nukes on the newly-taken oblasts ?

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:20 utc | 105

🇺🇦 Ukrainian operational headquarters “South” believes that the retreat of the RF Armed Forces from Kherson may be part of an information-psychological operation to mislead the Armed Forces of Ukraine – speaker of the Operational Command “South” Natalya Gumenyuk

https://t.me/intelslava/40819

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 18:23 utc | 106

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 18:23 utc | 118
So the Ukrainians are too terrified to enter Kherson.
That is indeed an effective psyop.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 9 2022 18:26 utc | 107

I have been consistent in my comments and views expressed here and elsewhere that a RF withdrawal from Kherson would rank as a major political and strategic defeat. It might amount to a good tactical move – another wily retreat (?) but allows the UAF to defend a river bank and deploy forces elsewhere. Like most here I have been extremely skeptical about the consistent messages in the western MSM that Russia cannot fight and its forces are being defeated. Well, if it cannot hold this piece of real estate, then they have a point. This was always key ground and to abandon it seemingly without a fight looks much like the actions of a defeated army.
There is no doubt a lot we don’t know and this might be misinformation or even maskirovka. But on the face of it – right now – it would represent the worst Russian defeat so far. I find it hard to believe that Russia could not maintain a garrison on the West Bank supported by forces on the east bank, its air force with supply via helicopter and boats. Unless it is severely overstretched.
It may be that the shiny new 300,000 man army will swing into action soon. However their morale will not be raised by the latest of a series of retreats – planned or forced.

Posted by: marcjf | Nov 9 2022 18:27 utc | 108

Tbx @ 104

What you are describing doesn’t solve anything

Yes, Russia will either live like a sovereign state or with a first strike nuclear gun to its head as a bowed vassal state. At this point, where we are today, only by pushing the west back to 1991 borders can Russia exist as sovereign. Maybe with Poland and Romania fully in NATO but no nukes there or Finland. The Padishah Emperor has promised to make Finland a melting arctic super-power after Russia is carved up or bowed, it tugs the leash, growls and salivates.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 18:28 utc | 109

Something has not smelled right since the start of the whole ‘SMO’ ‘this is false opposition’ came to mind and has stuck ever since then. Russia has fought a half-assed war and now the Emperor has no clothes. You don’t win a football game by losing territory, nor do you win a war that way. I highly doubt that Ukraine will bleed out, NATO will keep pumping in manpower from all over their territories. It sucks but the current reality is that we have been had.

Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 18:29 utc | 110

It might soon be a really good time for a few more “border adjustments”.
Russia could help Belarus take the Baltics.

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:31 utc | 111

I fully agree with some posters about Martyanov: narcisisstic fraud, reminds me of a guy banging his hand on a table in a bar loudest- that being his “argumentation”. Faker (Saker) has become comic relief. He is in thick of events publishing musical commentary. His new “thing” is disappearing for few days “offline” before every Russian debacle (first Kupyansk/Izum and now Kherson) with long lamentations about Florida hurricanes 🙂 (where he lives).

Posted by: IGOR VUKSANOVIĆ | Nov 9 2022 18:32 utc | 112

@Arch Bungle & Down South, re: Kherson psyop
Russia’s next move should be to waft across the Dniepr, the aroma of hot freshly-baked bread.

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:36 utc | 113

So we all agree this retreat adds up?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 18:36 utc | 114

… Its all about missiles, arty, drones now. And of course manpower.
Aircraft carriers and jetfighters belong in museums. Or will soon.
Posted by: Comandante | Nov 9 2022 16:58 utc | 51

Agreed but I think the current state of affairs is slightly beyond that position already and will be well ahead of it in the near future. Specifically, drones beat most things now and will eclipse even more in the future.
A few hundred grams of drone-delivered explosives can immobilise or even wreck a big artillery piece or MBT, a radar station or air defense installation, a fuel / ammo dump, a strategic nuclear bomber, almost anything, all that’s needed is a cheap drone with the autopilot to successfully carry out the attack.
Missiles / MLRS / MANPADS are just specialised drones from previous decades, occupying niches where the sensors and flight control logic were feasible given available technology.
How much does manpower count against cheap, mass produced, anti personnel drones – basically flying, homing anti personnel mines?
It’s a grim exercise but try to work out the least amount of explosive, where you’d have to place it, and how you could get it there in order to win an entire war.
Any reasonable solution doesn’t look like the current Ukraine conflict at all.

Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 9 2022 18:37 utc | 115

Scott Ritter recently said that Russia had not suspended their mobilization and he expected a much larger number than 300,000 new troops, but I read that Putin has said the mobilization is over, done, period. Anyone have any idea why Putin wouldn’t continue mobilizing and get ahead of the curve by adding about 1,000,000 troops so he could hold the land they have and advance on Odessa and Kiev? Something doesn’t seem to add up here. Ideas anyone?
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 16:24 utc | 23
Well, do you think Putin should keep some troops at home in case Russia is attacked? Russia has forces committed in other places like Syria. Right now, the forces sitting idle or on the frontlines in a holding action amount to over 500,000, and as soon as the weather turns these forces will be let loose on the Kiev Nazis in an offensive to end the Ukraine portion of this conflict (the US and NATO is another issue to be determined). Zelensky knows this, and that is why he is trying to destroy the dam and the ZNPP without regard to the civilian populations living nearby.
The US and NATO also know that the lights are about to go out in Kiev this winter, and that is why Jake Sullivan is talking to “some Russians” (?) to warn them that the US and NATO will enter the conflict directly if the MoD escalates the war, destroys the AFU and the Ukraine decisions makers, and destroys the infrastructure. The Collective West knows that the infrastructure in Western Ukraine and Kiev will be rubble after the Great Russian Offensive. All of this will be done when the conditions are right for Russia and not when the naysayers and the crybabies want it (even the one that claim to support Russia’s right enjoy secure borders).

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:41 utc | 116

@ Down South 55
You are correct.
“Characteristics of an Active Defense:
Places the enemy under constant fires;
Creates unfavorable conditions for the enemy to conduct battle;
Conducts extensive maneuver of forces and systems in the conduct of fires and assaults;
Conducts defensive counterattacks.
Achieving an active defense
The Active Defense is achieved by:
Careful organization of the means of nuclear and conventional fires to destroy the enemy and the skillful
implementation of this during combat;
Timely maneuver of forces and systems, fires and obstacles against a threatened axis;
Jamming of enemy C2 systems, weapons and aircraft.
The maneuver of forces and systems involved in the transfer of reinforcements and their deployment on a new axis of advance, line or area is carried out to create a more advantageous grouping of forces to fulfill a military mission. The maneuver of forces and systems in the defense may be carried out along the front line of the defenses, from the rear to the front or from the front to the rear, and included units and subunits of all branches.”
The Russian Way of War: Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernization of the Russian Ground Forces, page 62
Grau, Bartles, Foreign Military Studies Office, 2016

Posted by: ltexpat | Nov 9 2022 18:42 utc | 117

“Remember that they are saving their best troops and weapons for the eventuality that they will have to fight NATO. So unless there is an immediate threat to the statehood of Russia, you will not see shock and awe. They are not fighting this war to impress you.”
Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 46
Best post of the week!

Posted by: RDF2 | Nov 9 2022 18:44 utc | 118

It sucks but the current reality is that we have been had.
Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 18:29 utc | 122
Actually, I think you have been had by watching too much western MSM.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:46 utc | 119

Aircraft carriers and jetfighters belong in museums. Or will soon.
Posted by: Comandante | Nov 9 2022 16:58 utc | 51

Thanks for your post Comandante, but unfortunately I cannot agree with this assessment.
Preferred weapon systems are inextricably tied to foreign policy objectives that underlie respective economic needs. This is one of the main reasons why the US will continue to maintain operational formations such as carrier strike groups for the foreseeable future. Fossils like the Washington’s Gunboat policy simply cannot do without it, and it is more than unlikely that every resource-rich country in the world will have hypersonic weapons.
Btw, that was also one of the main reasons why the USSR voluntarily refrained from developing stealth technologies during the 1960s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyotr_Ufimtsev
Seen from a pure military point of view, something like that is only suitable for offensive purposes, and was therefore considered politically useless by the Soviet leadership.

Posted by: Nobody | Nov 9 2022 18:54 utc | 120

My initial thoughts have proven correct then.
The purpose of taking Kherson was to use it as a bargaining chip. The backroom negotiations are already taking place. Russia will withdraw from Kherson (and possibly Zaparozhe) in return for recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk as “Russian”.
That is the deal!

Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 18:55 utc | 121

Russia should have withdrawn from the other side of the Dnieper River as soon as it was clear the HIMARS were going to destroy all the bridges. The bridges being taken out were pooh poohed by many – ferries, pontoon bridges, helicopters – but that proves to be wishful thinking.
Now Ukraine may be able to hit that Crimean bridge with their HIMARS.

Posted by: Simon | Nov 9 2022 18:59 utc | 122

Lets hear your justification now friggin troll nutter.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 31
I refer you to item #78 you friggin troll nutter.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 19:00 utc | 123

Dima of Military Summary thinks Jake Sullivan persuaded the Ukies to allow the evacuation process, possibly with a view to freezing the conflict.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:00 utc | 124

The problems with this war for Russia is not new, it has been visibile already back when the war started:

What is surprising is that Putin and his military command appear not to have fully grasped the extent to which NATO had armed and trained Ukraine’s military.

Moreover, it is apparent that Russia — after having failed to pressure the West — did not have a clear strategic plan. What, exactly, is Putin trying to achieve? The military operation — at least in its initial stages — has been a disaster. It seems to consist of a series of reactions improvised in response to unexpected difficulties. The loss of seven generals in the opening weeks of the war is evidence of a staggering level of incompetence

Written back in april, it is like nothing has changed https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/04/02/lett-a02.html

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 19:02 utc | 125

I read that the Ukrainians think the withdrawal is a trap. Could be. I remember seeing videos of 18 large Russian missile launchers heading west about 6 weeks ago. If the Ukes sent 40,000 troops and equipment to Kherson, they would have to eat a lot of long range missiles from those launchers and from the ships in the Black and Caspian seas. Plus air launched missiles. I took another look at the map of the Kherson area. Doesn’t look like a real good place for defense. Resupply would be a problem. Too many rivers and bad terrain. It appears this battle will be fought with artillery and missiles. Since Russia has the most of both, it looks good for the Russians. Not so good for the Ukrainian military. Take a deep breath and relax everybody.

Posted by: Leroy | Nov 9 2022 19:05 utc | 126

This is depressing news. I am interested in all viewpoints except the ones that tie it to US elections.
Our elections are a farce and have nothing to do with US foreign policy. That is run by the Deep State.
So just stop with any bullshit about US election results having something to do with Russian battle tactics.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 9 2022 19:06 utc | 127

If Sullivan is really involved here, it amounts to a conceding defeat on the Ukie/Western side. Let them have their PR victory but the fact is that the Ukie side was going to get crushed.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:08 utc | 128

Hermius

he purpose of taking Kherson was to use it as a bargaining chip.

LOL have you already forgot Kherson/Russia had a referendum and they voted to join Russia like 1 month ago? Are the people there just pawns for Russia to be played with? Russia now have to give back Kherson to Ukraine, that is they have to give back a part of Russian land to Ukraine in a war they started! It cannot be more humilating than this.
Why should Ukraine agree to have talks with Russia? Ukraine will of course become more embolden after this easy win and why shouldnt they if it is this easy to beat Russia.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 19:09 utc | 129

After seeing people cope for months about how Putin is secretly a genius and how the latest stupid decision is a part of his master plan I really don’t believe this is some kind of maskirovka or whatever. The only side benefiting from this war at all are the warmongering think-tanks, fossil fuel companies, the military-industrial complex, American imperialism and NATO strategists. Thanks to Russia NATO has proven it’s “usefulness” to her European client states and the US can now expect near total monopoly over the energy market of western europe in the future. I can guarantee you that champagne bottles were opened by overpaid cold war era remnant trans-atlantic diplomats when the war broke out. This conflict is more proof that the collapse of the Soviet Union has been the biggest tragedy in recent history.

Posted by: FullTimeTankie | Nov 9 2022 19:12 utc | 130

There were some pics a few weeks ago of a punch of prefab concrete pillboxes lined up across a street in Kherson posted in a couple of telegrams, cant find it now. I think the pic was from the same day Russian flags came down from a few admin buildings. Maybe Russian MOD asked them to be taken down? Anybody able to find that pic? Found a video of a truck convoy carrying them into Kherson, but no dice on the deployed pillbox pic.

Posted by: Colonel Applewhite | Nov 9 2022 19:13 utc | 131

The retreat is real. As I have noted here numerous times, the Dnieper River is a logical boundary between Ukraine and Novorossia, as much as possible.
Between hostile countries, boundaries that traverse fields and forests are problematic, in that saboteurs can cross undetected easily.
“All the way to Odessa” was a nice slogan, but not gonna happen.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 19:16 utc | 132

This evacuation of Kherson is a curious maneuver, but I can’t help but see it against the over-arching backdrop of the 300,000 additional Russian troops while, at the same time, Ukraine is getting less and less in way of military supplies from the West.
At some point, it all comes down to how much power one side can bring to bear in this war and that definitely favors Russia. I’m not seeing any maneuvers by Ukraine that would negate Russia’s advantage.
At this point, I’ll take Russia’s explanation at face value.

Posted by: Woogs | Nov 9 2022 19:16 utc | 133

The purpose of taking Kherson was to use it as a bargaining chip. The backroom negotiations are already taking place. Russia will withdraw from Kherson (and possibly Zaparozhe) in return for recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk as “Russian”.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 18:55 utc | 133
They have to change constitution first. Russia can’t lose land according to the current one.
Not impossible if Shoigu becomes president.

Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 19:18 utc | 134

Actually, I think you have been had by watching too much western MSM.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:46 utc | 131
There’s a lot of that going around at MoA–BOMB THE “UKIES” BACK TO THE STONE AGE LIKE A REAL RAMBO.
.
.
.
Then wut?
.
.
ALL THE WAY TO WARSAW!!!

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:22 utc | 135

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 45
But, but, Gonzolo can see from his window that the Russians are winning!!

Posted by: vato | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 136

Dima of Military Summary thinks Jake Sullivan persuaded the Ukies to allow the evacuation process, possibly with a view to freezing the conflict.
Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:00 utc | 137
Freezing the conflict with parts of Russia occupied? How does that work?
Also Shtolty already is very pleased by the retreat and demanded from Ukr “to liberate more territory”

Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 137

“There is no doubt a lot we don’t know and this might be misinformation or even maskirovka.”
Posted by: marcjf | Nov 9 2022 18:27 utc | 120

______
Yup, a lot we don’t know, but it’s enough for armchair strategists here, paid or not, to define retreat as defeat.
This reminds me of coyote pack hunting tactics my wife and witnessed on a twilight walk with our two small dogs, both on long retractable leashes. A shuffling sound ahead (we couldn’t see) caught the dogs’ attention. One went straight for it, but it shifted beyond leash range. The other, a Lhasa, was off to the side of a small rise and started yapping frantically, then we heard scrambling and huffing sounds, pulled our dogs in and saw the coyotes, who then took off along with the “disabled” bait just ahead of us. Wily hunters, coyotes, had to settle for rabbit or raodrunner that night. Other neighbors had reported losing their pets to coyotes, so we keep our dogs leashed on trails, especially after dark. The Kherson retreat may well be maskirovka.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 19:24 utc | 138

More on the impotence/unwillingness to act properly:
https://t.me/rybar/41021

On the supply of engineering equipment from North Macedonia to Ukraine
Our sources report that on November 7, a train with engineering equipment left Skopje in North Macedonia in the direction of Ukraine through Greece.
The footage shows over a dozen different types of vehicles, including T-55 armored recovery vehicles, M35 trucks, Land Rover Defender armored vehicles, ambulances, bulldozers and cranes.
The personnel of the Ukrainian army is placed in the second-class carriages, which received engineering weapons before being sent.
Initially, the delivery was supposed to arrive in Ukraine in August, but due to unnamed problems, the transfer was delayed. On November 9, the railway train passed the border checkpoint in the city of Ruse in Bulgaria and headed to the Odessa region through the Romanian territory.

That train should be blown up. Sure, it might be hard when it’s in motion, but it will have to eventually stop in Odessa, and it will not be unloaded in seconds, it will sit there for sufficiently long to allow for a missile attack on the depot.
But we only ever saw one or two such trains meet that fate…

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 19:25 utc | 139

Posted by: vato | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 151
oh. right. How are the wife and kids?

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:27 utc | 140

RUSSIAN RETREAT FROM KHERSON
Pepe Escobar is in mourning.. probably on his second bottle of Merlot by now…
https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/5523
Ukrainian Skepticism – Are they trolling the 5D Chess Russian cheer squad? Who would evacuate 150,000 civilians and publicly announce the news of a huge strategic defeat? it’s not April fools, fool!
https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1590379076464041984
Regardless, today 2 major bits of news, that much to my displeasure, will likely mean the prolonging of this war:
-Dems outperform expectations, no Republican wipeout in congress and house.
-Russia announces second massive defeat, if Kharkov seemed bad, this is terrible.
The best chance to stop weapons and support for Ukraine now is not the Russian army or the morons making decisions in Moscow, but the coming winter and the economic downturn in Europe and USA. One will be over in 3 months, the other, will likely last much longer, just like the war now.
Final thought: Aside from a shortage of manpower, Russia is pulling out of Kherson because of its inability to supply its troops across the Dniepr after losing 2 major bridges. One wonders, when speaking of ‘tough decisions’ why the Russian military did not show the same willingness Ukraine did by blowing up its own bridges. Instead it watched on for 8 months as men and equipment were allowed to cross the Dniepr to kill their men and stop their advance on BRIDGES(!!) it left standing.

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 9 2022 19:29 utc | 141

1. Concern about logistics and supply if the conflict stretched for a month or more + uncertainty about preservation of the pontoon bridges.
2.Possible intelligence to the effect that if the Ukrainian losses in the assault were unsustainable, the dam would be breached and the flooding would leave some Russian defence areas impossible to supply and to defend.
A question — does the Dnieper River freeze in the Kherson area?

Posted by: chet380 | Nov 9 2022 19:30 utc | 142

While everyone is staring at Kherson, more important developments.
DNR battalion “Kaskad” video from ugledar zone
Very little resistance from defenders , no artillery backup either . Totally destroyed , they seems to be out of ammo and men both
Safe to say any Ukrop stayed there is dead or captured
Even Zely mentioned Donbass is critical and heavy situation ,but forgot to mention he loosing way more than the russians
Majority of ukrop force are not mechanized sitting in trenches to be mopped up ,just like the previous video . They need to focus on them and defend against the better ones which is exactly what they are doing

https://t.me/missilesnukes/6621
Also…
Some reports are suggesting that the attack at Snigiryovka is the beginning of the “long-awaited” Ukrainian offensive on Kherson. I do not believe so.
Once again, we have Ukrainians attempting to mobilized something—anything—on the day of the American elections, as instructed. However, the Ukrainian army does not appear to be in the position to conduct serious operations at the moment.
They are digging in along the Kupyansk/Svatovo/Kremennay line and are being pushed back in the Ugledar area, near Belogorovkas (upper and lower, in LPR and DPR), and in the Bakhmut clash.
Accordingly, as before, I believe this to be reconnaissance-in-force, but only time will tell.

https://t.me/Zornkrieger/21126
So stale mate in Kherson but situation lives on in other places. Now the question I presented is earlier, what effect will have UAF moving troops to other areas from Kherson. Also Russia can move to other places from Dnieper front. The momentum and shape of UAF seems to be bad already for UAF in Kupyansk and Kreminna. Most likely it was bad in Nikolaev/Krivoi rog, too, but they can get a “free ride” here, unless Russian army can arrange for some “surprises” on the way.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 19:34 utc | 143

In Ukraine, they do not believe that Russian troops are leaving Kherson.
The “do not believe” marathon continues on the Ukrainian side:
“Some people think that they are very cunning… But we are one step ahead,” writes Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. “It’s a staged show.” The Ukrainian command commented on Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson.
The statements of the Russian command about the withdrawal from Kherson can be a “staged show”, and it’s too early to talk about the capture of Kherson, said Natalya Gumenyuk, spokesman for the Operational Command “South”.
Gumenyuk called the announcement of the withdrawal of troops from Kherson an attempt by the Russian leadership to “save face” and noted that this was not the first time this had happened. “What is now being announced [about the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson] is an attempt to create a certain impression that the lives of soldiers will be saved, that the civilian population will be saved – and another demonization of the armed forces of Ukraine,” Gumenyuk said.
According to her, a real military operation requires a regime of information silence, and “a staged show with the announcement of such serious and difficult decisions is a long-understood method of justifying oneself.”
At the same time, as Gumenyuk notes, the defense lines near Kherson have been created, and regular Russian troops are on the ground and are ready to defend.
The statement of the Russian command, according to Gumenyuk, may be “an element of an information-psychological operation in order to create an erroneous impression of true intentions.”

https://t.me/geromanat/3122

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 19:34 utc | 144

I’m surprised no one is discussing the success Russia is having in Bakmut and taking the entire Donetsk airport.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:37 utc | 145

FILE IN: Mental disorder is a communicable disease
Russian MoD Announces Troop Withdrawal From Parts of Kherson Region to Left Bank of Dnepr River (RT)
“Moscow was unable to supply the tens of thousands of soldiers in the city, forcing them to retreat and cross to the east bank of the Dnipier River” (The Hill)
“Shoigu has apparently ordered Russian forces to leave the western bank of the Dnipro River” (France 24)
“take up defensive lines on the opposite bank of the River Dnipro” (also France 24)

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:37 utc | 146

People respect strength not weakness. Russia’s projection of weakness will only embolden Ukraine and the west to further apply the pressure. This foolishness about waiting for the ground to freeze is just that, foolishness. Ukraine is not waiting for the ground to freeze. They are fighting and taking territory under all conditions. By the time the ground freezes or if it freezes Russia would have lost a lot more territory as they retreat. A defeat for Russia means serious problems for Putin as ordinary Russians will once again face embarrassment. The bear has no teeth.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Nov 9 2022 19:40 utc | 147

❗️Scott Ritter, a military analyst and former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, tells Sputnik why the Russian MoD’s decision to withdraw from parts of the Kherson region to the left bank of the Dnepr River was right.
💬 “This is a decision that seemed to focus on preserving the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers over holding on to territory which has no intrinsic value in the short term. I think it was a just decision, one that was made based upon purely military objectives.”

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19408

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 148

So Putin evacuated Kherson, and then made a gift of it to Kiev. It becomes increasingly obvious that Putin is either an idiot (not likely) or he is fulfilling his early training as a WEF young leader. The whole shemozzle since the great Feb 24 march on Kiev (and subsequent retreat) to the delayed and frankly silly, ineffective bombing of Kiev, then the nonsensical “waiting for the ground to freeze,” and now the clever abandon-Kherson strategy reeks of FAKE opposition. As an American, I am way too familiar with the FAKE opposition dance since we go through it constantly with our fake democrat-republican “rivalry.” Clearly the WEF was always the puppet-master in this blood sacrifice, and the goal is something about destroying Western currency as prelude to introducing a global digital currency (which will operate as brownie points).

Posted by: RJ | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 149

Didn’t Putin say, some time before all the stallings and setbacks: “This year, the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts will join the Russian Federation.”? Not sure if it was before of after he talked about Alexander the Great and his conquests…
Theres is only a month and a half left now.
Phony war anyway IMHO, Russian stalled because these areas of Ukraine are the “most heavily fortified in the world” I heard. As if thermobaric ordnance, which Russia has and uses elsewhere, couldn’t be used against these and wipe out personnel from these in a matter of days instead of spending weeks/months to do the same without…
This plus trumpetting an anti-nazi crusade at the beginning to finally end up freeing all the captured nazis and not say another word about their trials supposed to take place…

Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 150

The Russians had two options with respect to Kherson, put enough troops in there for an offensive that takes the south (i.e. Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa) or get behind the Dniepr. The former option would have removed Ukraine from the Black Sea and threatened the rear of the Ukrainian south-eastern front, especially if combined with a thrust up the eastern side of the Dniepr, but Russia added extra forces far too late for this.
So now the latter option has been chosen, after months of trying the non-option of defending the area and trying to advance with too few troops, just as the 300,000+ extra troops are arriving. Also very bad optics as this area has only recently been defined as Russian territory. Is it a trap, I don’t know but the whole strategy in this area for the past few months seems very dysfunctional. Will Russia be expending troops to take the area back later? Hopefully, we will soon see some actual creative moves from Russia rather than just the incredibly slow head-on assault on the eight years worth of fortifications in the Donbass. Anything else would show a misunderstanding of the true nature of the conflict, as Ukraine will always act as a threat to Russia and Belarus.
As I have stated often, Russia does have to take into account its image in the rest of the world to maintain the RoW support, but they also actually have to start operating to win. Perhaps the Russians consider that they can wait for winter and a lack of electricity etc. to break Ukraine/the West but it would probably take another year plus for this to be true. Perhaps Russia is getting behind a barrier that can be defended by less troops to allow the concentration on a major thrust somewhere else?
I am now officially in the “put up or shut up” camp with respect to Russia’s actions.

Posted by: Roger | Nov 9 2022 19:44 utc | 151

Michael Hudson explains the Ukraine situation.
Hudson explains how the USA could continue financing the US military and how the IMF and World Bank are extensions of the US military used to prevent other nations from being able to grow their own food (and how US sanctions on Russia turned Russia into a food exporting nation) or finance projects that solely benefited American corporations. The current sanctions on Russia have completely backfired.
It hardly matters if Russia is retreating from Kherson, the USA has lost its global hegemony. The USA cannot win.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:46 utc | 152

The withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper, as I’ve already said and assume to be correct was for security reasons.
This article points out that, and suggests that it was the right thing to do regardless of Western/Ukrainian propaganda.
Russia will need its soldiers for this long-drawn-out conflict which is already in its ninth month, so why risk the lives of your troops and the civilians at the hands of a blown dam when there’s no real need to. There will be more ebb and flows in this conflict before it’s over, knowing when to push forward or pull back will be vital in the coming months to the outcome of this conflict, and every single one will be used in the propaganda war, but it’s on the battlefield that wars are won, and you need your troops to be fit and healthy to do so.
https://ria.ru/20221109/kherson-1830355862.html

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 9 2022 19:47 utc | 153

Yes, you can have a frozen conflict with whole or part of your territory occupied (in this case Russian territory in Kherson). Like East Timor, the whole of which was occupied by Indonesia. Or Donetsk and Lugansk, from the Ukie point of view. Anyway, this is speculation based on the assumption that this is a deal brokered by Sullivan (as Dima believes). Just throwing it out there to answer b’s question.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:49 utc | 154

@ 163 Saint Jimmy
Depends on which military analysts you listen to.
Consider that much of the AFU is deployed to Kherson. That the Ukraine rail system is mostly out and dependent on Diesel Locomotives. That some analysts have declared that Bakmut is the key to breaking through the AFU front.
Seems to me that since a assault cannot happen for several more weeks because of the mud, that keeping the AFU guessing about where that assault is going to come from is a good move.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:51 utc | 155

There’s no way to view the evacuation from Kherson as anything other than as a military disaster for Russia. Ukraine has made it clear that they still hope to conqueror all of the liberated territory, including Crimea. Capturing Kherson makes that dream a possibility, which will only embolden the neocon warmongers in the US who aren’t paying any sort of price for this war, since there is open conflict between Russia and NATO now, NATO can funnel long range armaments into Ukraine to keep the pressure on Russia to target the land bridge and other supply routes to say nothing of interrupting water supplies to Crimea all over again.
That having been said, the war isn’t over and both sides have already said that the conflict will continue, Russia says it will use the troops it evacuated in Kherson to strengthen its’ advance in Donetsk and Russia still has a freshly mobilized 370,000-ish troops that it hasn’t demobilized, yet). I suspect we’ll see Russia do it’s best to try and freeze the conflict in south of Ukraine and instead focus on a winter campaign to fully liberate the Donetsk Oblisk. After that, in April or May, we might see Russia try to attack from the North down through Belarus again or just abandon the West of Ukraine entirely and focus on just controlling the east. However, NATO isnt stupid and will keep hammering Crimea to try to get a breakthrough.
bottom line this looks like a new Syrian mess that will last another 2-3 years of grinding warfare, there’s no way the Russian, Ukrainian or Western governments can make a peace plan or even an armistice, this is a war political annihilation. Russia and the US look like they can weather this low-level warfare, but the EU and Ukraine are going to be utterly destroyed economically by this.

Posted by: Kadath | Nov 9 2022 19:54 utc | 156

This thread confirms my approach to comments at MOA concerning the SMO (or Peace Enforcement as one Russian website referred to it) and it is – if the comment is critcal of Russia, Putin etc, I don’t bother reading it any further. (I might check the author isn’t Peter_au, grumpy with a sore head, because if it is I will read it then as he always writes something worthwhile!)
The negative comments usually prove to be just the dribblings of a troll, peace of shit, whatever, like Zanon, Biswa Purka etc (worth less than what they are paid). There is a handful of other names on this thread I will add to my ignore list.

Posted by: tucenz | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 157

Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 167
I meant to say Peter the Great not Alexander the Great, obviously, duh…

Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 158

This is my take on the pullout. According the the Ukraine channels a deal has been made between US and Russia. The basics of the deal I believe is that US wants to wind down the Ukraine war so it can concentrate on China and Russia from the time Sutovikin was appointed views the Dnieper as the best long term defensive position.
Sullivan – Patrushev Deal Minsk./Istanbul/Riyadh-3
https://vk.com/@739151204-sullivan-patrushev-deal-minskistanbulriyadh-3

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 9 2022 20:00 utc | 159

Sorry this retreat doesnt make any sense unless our entire assessement of the situation is wrong.
If the russians possess all the military equipment and one of the largest armies in the world a river cant be a problem to supply the troops on the other side. No artillery or any other weapon system 30 or 50 km away can hinder 2 minute flyover by helicopters or hit a moving target such as boats. If they cant do that you have no reason to be afraid of the russian military.
So you are calling up 300.000 men for 6 or 12 month but shortly before they are ready to rumble you reatreat from the most valuable position. Doesnt make sence.
Our enemy is supposedly short of men, weaponry and ammunition. So you retreat behind a massive natural barrier which allows your opponent to defend its position easily and free up thousands of men and tanks and artillery to be transferred to the battlefield where you supposedly plan an offensive.
In order to allow more men to be deployed into a specific area you hold elections to make it part of your country. So a month later you leave the area.
So, you destroy all minor attempts by 100 or so men who try to crack the defence line but when the enemy is able to amass a 1000 men you always retreat because you wanna spare manpower.
According to our assessment the enemy is desperately foolishly attacking in order to win media-victories. But whenever it seems that they are loosing morale and are on their last legs you gift them a victory by retreating.
Odessa is the final destination, so we say. Please explain this move then.
So russia is superior and can send a 100 rockets if necessary from siberia to hit any target. Additionaly they could send hundreds of cheap drones. Enough to destroy each and every house in a town or settlement in front of you before the arrival of your first soldier. So please explain why you wouldnt be able to move forward espescialy if all soil outside from street is unpassable due to mud.
So putin and the russians concluded month sgo that the west is agreement incapable. So if sullivan offered a new deal “cherson for x” the ruusians would willingly take it.
So weapon drliveries from the west are in decline but to keep it afloat we give them big victories so that the entire west does not start to doubt their involvement.
So you try to convince the whole world that there is no need to be afraid of the old empire anymore. Yet you surrender an important city without any need.
This stuff doesnt add up and i dont believe in a 4d chess move anymore. Something about our assessment is wrong. Very wrong.

Posted by: Orgel | Nov 9 2022 20:04 utc | 160

What next – a retreat from the rest of Kherson in order to save lives? And then – further retreats? Scorched earth is a valid tactic – but only up to a point. This won’t mean the downfall of Putin …but it’s a political blow. Some kind of boost is needed for the Russians somewhere with something.

Posted by: steve brown | Nov 9 2022 20:08 utc | 161

Tbx @ 101

This isn’t on Surovikin. He inherited this mess and now has to sort it out.

Correct. Hopefully the Kherson retreat is the end of the original SMO failure and now starts Surovikin’s war. Note not phase two but a start from scratch.
You can see that he’s retreated everywhere he’s weak, Izium, Kharkov, Kherson, pushed hard on the minimum, Donbas and destroying Ukraine’s logistics. What comes next politically who knows, militarily RF will consolidate and proceed advancing from an all new plan where this time their man power can match their objective.
It took Lincoln several Generals before he found one who could win the war. From reading seems the magic quality is not just a capacity to calculate several battles ahead consolidate and move on, but an ability to see all the way ahead out to end of the war, clearly from the get go, with an almost shamanic certainty, compared to say Napoleon who for sure saw his victory but was deluded by arrogance. What’s needed is an artist general vs a craftsman. Does Surovikin know where he’s going? When you see photos of Zhukov and Konev around a map you can feel righteous confidence, you can see they know the road all the way to Berlin.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:10 utc | 162

Re: 179, Saint Jimmy
Good. Well deserved.
Yes, the EU and Ukraine certainly do deserve it given how stupid they have behaved over the past 8 years, however the US taxpayers are going to be on the hook for it. the EU is going from a major economic partner, bankrolling lot of US actions (most of which were foolish or stupid, but still they paid a major portion of it). now the EU is going to be another blackhole for the US economy to bail out on a daily basis. Things are going to get very tough for people in the west now

Posted by: Kadath | Nov 9 2022 20:11 utc | 163

Really Ed,
I know you must love CNN but I’m not American thank God. Pleased tell me were I am mistaken? The ecacuation of Kherson is a military disaster, and probably something to do with an agreement in the works with the U.S. who knows, but hoping that Russia will take out the NWO is fantasy at best.
>>It sucks but the current reality is that we have been had<<. Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 18:29 utc | 122 Actually, I think you have been had by watching too much western MSM. Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:46 utc | 131

Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 20:11 utc | 164

This was not a popular comment at the time, but then truth is more important than popularity.
Russia’s days in Kherson are numbered. It turned out to be ‘a bridge too far.’ All the bridges have been destroyed and can’t be rebuilt. Ferry service is sketchy and vulnerable, and so Russian forces lack proper logistical connections. Gasoline, water, food, ammunition, repair parts, they are absent and military forces can’t function. They will die as a force.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 7 2022 2:39 utc | 99

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 9 2022 20:13 utc | 165

tucenz | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 176
“if the comment is critcal of Russia, Putin etc, I don’t bother reading it any further.”
Thanks for summing up perfectly the know-nothing, unquestioning, unfalsifiable, goalpost-moving, cult-follower vegetable mindset of the celebrity-worshipping Putin Yes-men. You’re the perfect mirror image of the empire-propagandized Stand-With-Ukraine dregs.
BTW according to what I read your kind doesn’t exist in Russia itself, where the people broadly support Putin but don’t worship him and still engage in plenty of healthy questioning and criticism.
I wager this questioning will increase exponentially after this debacle.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 9 2022 20:16 utc | 166

Zanon – 12. O for such certainty! Your dripping condescension is not really as bad as denial (which B isn’t engaged in btw….you misread that in your glee at today’s news) but it reveals what a NATO simp you are. Which is far worse. Your type was all moist when Liman was captured under similar circumstances – and look how that turned the war in favour of Kiev – – o wait.
So I’d dry up if I were you and try to be more analytical in your judgements, stop trying to score cheap points and turn up when things are quiet or when the situation for ‘your side’ isn’t going well (most of the time infact) instead of lobbing trollisms when you think your side is winning.

Posted by: steve brown | Nov 9 2022 20:16 utc | 167

Orgel @ 180

This stuff doesnt add up and i dont believe in a 4d chess move anymore. Something about our assessment is wrong. Very wrong.

It doesn’t add up because the SMO is a clusterfuck. Clusterfucks never add up. It doesn’t mean this war is over, the British had two years of failures in WW2 before turning it around and then to be honest the Russians and Americans turned it around for them.
What all this means is that this is now a big war, in Europe, btwn Russia and the USA. Do you want to name it WW3 yet? Is there an official somewhere with a starting gun or who blows a trumpet and sounds the start?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 168

@Ed Nelson 128
I read the following at: https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/334541-russian-and-us-military-reserves
Russia’s trained reserve numbers 2 million people who have served as conscripts in the Russian Armed Forces for one year within the past five. Add to that the 350,000 personnel in the National Guard service and a further 20 million in a different military reserve category (those who served more than five years ago).
If this is correct, Putin very well could continue mobilizing at Scott Ritter suggested, and fielding an army of 1,000,000 seems doable. Yes, there might be internal complaints but Putin enjoys high approval and would just need to persuade Russians that the country is facing an existential threat, which it is. If Kiev survives with Zelensky and ultra nationalists in charge, the problem of troops and missiles close to Moscow and St Petersburg will be almost as bad as having them located in the Donbas.
What do you say to this?

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 169

So guys, what will happen first?
The clever battle of the bulge style Kharkov counter attack
The clever battle of the bulge style Izyum counter attack
The clever battle of the bulge style Krasny Liman counter attack
The clever battle of the bulge style Kherson counter attack
The “alternative” blogs stop comparing every Russian retreat to clever battle of the bulge style counter attack setups
The genius military blogs stop constantly comparing the Ukraine war to past wars Russia won as the defending force even though they are the attacking force in this one
The taking off of gloves after the referenda incorporate the new territories into the RF proper, since Putin is “a stickler for legalities”
The trial of captured Azov nazis
The UAF running out of fuel, lubricants, ammo, men, weapons and underwear
Me being called a troll for venting my frustration at the facile self delusion of blog readers so desperate to believe there exists an ideological force of good on the global political stage that they will place an intensely emotional, quasi-religious belief into an overtly capitalist, overtly zionist, reactionary religion pushing, populist politician who voted for the Iran arms embargo and repeatedly and consistently voted for the starvation blockade against Yemen at the UNSC, and who prides himself on being a well liked personal friend of the crucifier of children in Saudi Arabia?
Asking so I can schedule a day off from work for my PePe “smartypants” Escobar approved DragonBearTM multipolar world order founding day parade

Posted by: ForgotMyOriginalNick | Nov 9 2022 20:22 utc | 170

Saint Jimmy @ 189

It is already tough to very tough for most Americans. I’m 65. I’ve had a good life. Maybe collapse will bring real changes for the better because the US is morally, financially, intellectually, and culturally bankrupt.

I hear yah, but it’ll be a long hard road down and a long hard road up.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:24 utc | 171

So to sum up the russian idiocy in Kherson, it would be:
1 Take Kherson in march
2 Ignore massing of ukrainian for 8 months
3 Not securing the Kherson border…but still proclaim a referendum and make Kherson join Russia
4 Suddenly realize that they are unable to protect Kherson and begin an evacuation of civilians
5 Suddenly realizing there are tens of thousands of ukrainian troops massed on the Kherson border that threat russian soldiers
6 Retreat
And yeah Russia not only lost it’s own proper territory, morale but they lost thousands of russian men that were killed like cannon fodder for nothing.
What is even Russia’s goal by now? If they cannot even hold annexed regions, where the pro-russians are living, what are they then suppose to achive with this invasion?

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 172

Something about this pull out of Kherson doesn’t sit right. Why would you advertise it and risk a Dunkirk type evacuation situation? Not sure how many bridges across the river are left but they are probably within artillery range and certainly within HIMARS range. To state the obvious, bridges are natural choke points… Even the Ukrainian military seems skeptical per previous posts. So we will see what happens next.
If the
On another note, the weatherchannel long range forecast is for 10 days of freezing or below night temps starting on Nov 14th. This should put a severe strain on the grid as well as the populace. Not sure if there will be more strikes on the grid before then but wouldn’t surprise me. The cold weather may bring about another wave of people leaving Ukraine and accelerate the economic collapse of Ukraine (and the EU).

Posted by: ctiger | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 173

I must say the last few months have been pretty discouraging for those of us who would rather see a multipolar world than the triumph of GAE (Global American Empire).
The US State Department won’t rest until either they’re stopped or until every primary school has Drag Queen Story Hour and every daughter an Onlyfans account. If Russia fails and GAE triumphs, the whole world may fall into a new Dark Age, made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of (literally) perverted science.
Therefore the Russian danger is our danger, just as the cause of any DPR or LPR member fighting for hearth and home is the cause of free men and free peoples in every quarter of the globe.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 9 2022 20:26 utc | 174

Financial Times: Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike
Launching such a weapon over Ukraine would be lethal to Kyiv’s information warfare systems
https://www.ft.com/content/d6ecbf62-f26d-401f-936b-e5bd85f25c06

Posted by: Tom | Nov 9 2022 20:28 utc | 175

Bit of a frenzy today in the primate section. The trolls are throwing their shit like monkeys from a cage. I got my rubber apron, now where did I put that covid face shield?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:28 utc | 176

@OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 191
fielding an army of 1,000,000 seems doable. . .What do you say to this?
I say that a reader with military experience would never claim that numbers of untrained poorly led unmotivated conscripts would constitute a threat to an opposing force which is trained,equipped and motivated.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 9 2022 20:30 utc | 177

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 194
You seem awfully invested emotionally, and possibly professionally in this “mission” of yours. I like how you’ve gone out of your way in previous posts to say that this *isn’t* your profession, but with the volume of pablum you’re repeating ad nauseum here today, I’m starting to think that wasn’t true.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 9 2022 20:32 utc | 178

I think everyone is coming to the understanding that ww3 is government vs society. Controllers vs the controlled. Putin is acting to destroy Russia as zelensky is acting to destroy ukraine. Putin and his associates stole the foreign reserves and the endless slaughter is on purpose to destroy societys resistance to ever greater control on ever greater scale. If it doesn’t make sense just remember death is the point to make way for control. It’s essential Russias nukes and space capabilities are eliminated for this plan. Russia will nuke itself by the end. Putin has already hinted at it.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:39 utc | 179

Obviously the Kherson deputy that was killed today in a car “accident” was assassinated. As usual Russia is 1 step behind of everything.
Video of the car, or what is left of it (and this was a military shielded vehicle):
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/31485

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:41 utc | 180

Putin enjoys high approval and would just need to persuade Russians that the country is facing an existential threat, which it is.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 191
The “existential threat” can’t be true if you look at how little they care about it. They don’t have enough troops, not even after mobilization, they don’t strike important targets. Shoigu is killing soldiers for no reason, just to retreat later.
If Putin wanted to persuade anyone he managed the opposite, no one thinks it’s important anymore. Losing territory is not going to have zero effects on approval rates. Retreat more and Biden will get his regime change wish.

Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 20:43 utc | 181

Thats what I mean by government. The controllers. A rose by any other name and all that.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:45 utc | 182

The Ukraine is very marginal to Russia’s current interests. Leaving aside the status of the Donbas oblasts which have rejoined Russia and Crimea, where the process began in 2014, Russia needs only to defend its borders, and Belarus’s from NATO aggression. Those aren’t small jobs, given the nature of the fascist regime in Kiev and its teenage advisors in Canada, the UK and Washington, but the nuclear deterrent and small numbers of garrison troops ought to take care of that.
Russia’s real challenge is in Central Asia where, egged on by wahhabis, Turks and the imperialists, several crucial states, Kazakhstan, Tukmenistan, Kyrghistan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan require constant monitoring.
In this task, however, Russia is supported by China-which faces similar problems and has been doing so for almost three millenia- and Iran.
The task is simply to impress the danger and ultimate futility of playing the imperialist game upon political adventurers in the region.
Apart from that all that Russia, and China, simply have to wait. In the west the fruit is ripening . It will soon be ready to fall.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 9 2022 20:47 utc | 183

Ukrainians seem to be more cautious about calling this withdrawal a victory than many “experts” on this blog. And Ukies should know better. One thing I know for sure is that anyone who thinks that the decision to withdraw the troops is made today needs some rudimentary lessons in military strategy.
So if this decision is not made today, why is the announcement made today when the full attention of the NATO-dom is on the US midterm election? Perhaps to blunt the celebratory PR a bit. Maybe. But I don’t think so.
In the interim, I will take the advise of Andrei (the Saker) and wait 48 hours to see how this develops. Both “the Saker” and Andrei Martyanov are army veterans and while they might not be always right, they often brought informed commentaries to the discussion.

Posted by: Steve | Nov 9 2022 20:55 utc | 184

Tom_Q_Collins

“Shooting the messenger” is a metaphoric phrase used to describe the act of blaming the bearer of bad news

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_the_messenger
I warned for this Kherson retreat 1 month back. I was right all along while people like you was still in denial and called people like me troll, do not be mad at me for just telling you how it is. Grow up and face the reality of the war instead of being an entitled snowflake.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:55 utc | 185

Shoigu is killing soldiers for no reason, just to retreat later.

Shoigu is killing soldiers for no reason, just to retreat later.

The reason is that russias rulers sold their country for the foreign reserves. They’re killing their people so Russia can be dismantled and its nukes and space program destroyed.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:57 utc | 186

@ YetAnotherAnon 193
Read the Michael Hudson article I posted earlier.
This older video with Richard Wolff backs Hudson up.
The USA has deindustrialize and destroyed the German economy. It will not win against the combined strength of Russia, China and the BRICS/SCO/OPEC+.
The consequences for Americans will be horrible, but that’s what it takes for a revolution against Fascism.

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 21:05 utc | 187

– When you pin your hopes on the success of Republican thugs taking both houses of Democratic thugs to prevent Western guns from ending up on the front because you’re incompetent to do it yourself;
– When you hope the winter will be harsh to freeze your enemies that you can’t destroy, but you’re not even able to increase the damage on the electrical grid that supplies their heaters, nor cut the gas traffic to fill their depots just because you don’t have the balls to say “Enough!”;
Well, you are already morally defeated regardless of how much weaponry you have…and can only pray that General Winter is not as incompetent as those of Stavka.

Posted by: Alex, the Medium | Nov 9 2022 21:14 utc | 189

Whether the withdrawal across the Dnieper River in Kherson is a force-saving measure or a maskovoka ruse, the challenge now added to taking Nikolaev and Odessa sometime in the future is that RF will have to conduct a wide river crossing. … Doing this under fire is not optimum.

Posted by: Mummer | Nov 9 2022 21:18 utc | 190

@207 bevin – I fully agree about Central Asia. I ran across this article yesterday.
Turkmenistan: Washington plays footsie

Turkmenistan’s new leader receives an American official while his father visits Putin.

Good cop, bad cop or trying to maintain a multi-vector foreign policy and walk the tightrope like Nazarbayev did?
Everyone seems to be finding fault with the decision making of the RF regarding Kherson. I’m glad I don’t have to make decisions like that, and I still maintain the belief that they know what they are doing. I doubt they ever thought this was going to be a quick, made for television military spectacle. That’s what people in the west expect, though.

Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 9 2022 21:18 utc | 191

@194 Zanon
Exactly. If they cannot hold the newly acquired territory of the Russian speaking Ukranians, then what is the point of the SMO?
They might as well evacuate all Russian speaking Ukranians back into Russia proper, incl. those in Crimea, and just withdraw to the Russian borders proper.
But they could have done that without the SMO and all the diplomatic, economic and legal problems it brought about. Really bad leadership.

Posted by: zeun | Nov 9 2022 21:22 utc | 192

I cannot help noticing how this blog has recently become ever more putrid with trolls.
Perhaps some or all of them are NAFO reprobates?

Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 9 2022 21:28 utc | 193

A Canadian “hero” dies in Ukraine…

Premier Scott Moe shared his condolences in an emailed statement to CBC News, calling Hildebrand a “true Saskatchewan hero.”
“His death, coming just a few days before Remembrance Day, is a stark reminder of the enormous cost paid by those who bravely step forward to defend our freedoms,” he wrote.
“We must ensure his death is not in vain. Canada must do everything it can to ensure Ukraine defeats Russia and rises again as a free, independent, prosperous nation.”

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/man-killed-defending-ukrainian-city-from-russian-forces-1.6644569
So he died defending our freedoms… really meaning the freedom of Ukrainians and foreign war tourists to shoot at Russian speaking Ukrainians with impunity for the past 8 years.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 21:28 utc | 194

I wonder if the Russians have suddenly decided that the West has become agreement-capable?
I wonder if the Russians have decided not to use their freshly mobilized troops? Maybe they will all just be sent home?
The Russians knew they were going to reposition their forces weeks ago because that is when they started evacuating the civilians, so did they just deliver all of those pillboxes as gifts for the Nazis?
Have any of the principal goals of the Russians’ operation been achieved yet? Demilitarization? Denazification? Pushing NATO back? Has something changed such that these are no longer seen as imperatives for Russia?
If the Nazis are on the verge of victory and the Russians ready to throw in the towel, then why have the NATOady trolls been reinforced? Even trollwoda is back. (Remember that paid trolls are only necessary for reinforcing false narratives since the truth tends to reinforce itself).
Have the Russians gone stupid and they no longer realize what the Empire has in store for them if they cannot even secure the Ukraine?
No, the Russians are just regrouping/reorganizing their forces for a new phase of the operation. This so obvious that even the strategists for the Empire have seen through it and that is why the trolls are back in force. It is impossible right now to say when the Russians will pull the trigger on this new phase but it will probably be by the end of the month or early December.

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 195

@191 OdessaConnected
Getting tired of all this Russian bluster, all this Russian artillery, their large force numbers, their large air force, their large tank force, Terminators etc. Yet all they continually do is retreat.
The reason being that initially this Soviet style warfare worked in their favour, and it also coincided with the high-water mark of territorial gains. But now the superior NATO artillery is coming into play. NATO does not need the numbers of the Russian artillery b/c they have a completey different style. It’s one-shot-one-hit and scoot. If you look at the vids of Russian artillery, they are firing all over the place, and per chance hit objects. The fields look like a moon landscape. That type of warfare is outdated. And it is starting to catch up with them. I suspect that NATO artillery is obliterating the Russians b/c every NATO round is a direct hit. But they are hiding it from us.

Posted by: grits | Nov 9 2022 21:31 utc | 196

Well, I was wrong and I admit it when I am wrong.
I believed Russia would not abandon Kherson, not for any of the reasons most believed, but because being west of the Dnieper gives them an advantage should the Ukrainians retreating from Donbass set up a defensive line on the Dnieper. If that happened, the Russians could move north and outflank the Ukrainian defensive line.
Apparently not. Apparently the mere threat of the dam being blown has made the Russians pull out. I believe this is a mistake, will be perceived as a mistake, and will put Shoigu in the crosshairs of Russian public opinion. Probably to no avail, as his position is probably good with Putin. Nonetheless, Ukraine and the West will promote this to the high heavens. Even Martyanov admits “the optics are bad”.
The problem is not Western public opinion, which doesn’t matter per se. What matters is that every Russian set-back, no matter how small, keeps the war going that much longer. Maybe not THAT much longer, but longer in any event. In other words, it doesn’t help. Sure, the Russian will come back, take Kherson and much more right to the Polish border – but with every cautious decision made, it will take longer and in the end will cost more Russian lives than being bolder would have spared.
Bottom line: I consider this a dumb move and it will bite the Russians much harder than Kharkiv did. The Russians had better get that “winter offensive” moving within the next four weeks and it better be a damn good one, or I wash my hands of them.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:32 utc | 197

So much nonsense.
Is Russia more secure now than when it started the war? Before this war NATO was falling apart. There were obvious internal contradictions.
Now we have the Green Party IN GOVERNMENT in Germany supporting NATO. Finland will be a NATO member with a nuclear tripwire close to Moscow. To say that Russia is more secure is batsh*t crazy.

Posted by: No War | Nov 9 2022 21:35 utc | 198

@180 Orgel
Good post. I have also changed my mind after this. I am beginning to think that Russia is militarily weak, and their warfare capabilities lag those of NATO. They are hurting, which is why they retreat.
From now on I will consider them weak unless proven wrong.

Posted by: grits | Nov 9 2022 21:35 utc | 199

@William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 221
Good point on the pillboxes + more.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2022 21:38 utc | 200