Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?
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November 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. The current open thread for other issues is here. Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?
Comments
Fellow Barflies ; Posted by: Exile | Nov 9 2022 18:14 utc | 101 I have always maintained that the Russians are all bark and no bite. The fact is, since September they have not won a single battle. Areas that they fought for months to gain were taken back in hours. I have been hearing many bloggers saying that Ukraine has lost its fighting ability, it is running out of artillery etc. That was plain foolishness. This is the biggest blow the Russians will ever face, this is going to lead to the Russians facing serious problems in Crimea as Ukraine will now dam the canals again. This is embarassing, Zelenksky is making Putin look foolish. Why did they bother to anex a region that they could not hold and how will this affect the people of Kherson and the other annexed regions. Are they going to withdraw too? This was all a grand waste of time and waste of lives. Posted by: Curious Passerby | Nov 9 2022 18:18 utc | 102 During WWII, before modern technology, the Russians fielded superb meteorologists. They could read snow, ice, mud, melting phases, wind patterns et al.. Posted by: Carmen Grayson | Nov 9 2022 18:18 utc | 103 🇷🇺 Kadyrov – about leaving Kherson: Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 18:19 utc | 104 What if Russia made a deal with Poland on the sly… Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:20 utc | 105
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 18:23 utc | 106 Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 18:23 utc | 118 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 9 2022 18:26 utc | 107 I have been consistent in my comments and views expressed here and elsewhere that a RF withdrawal from Kherson would rank as a major political and strategic defeat. It might amount to a good tactical move – another wily retreat (?) but allows the UAF to defend a river bank and deploy forces elsewhere. Like most here I have been extremely skeptical about the consistent messages in the western MSM that Russia cannot fight and its forces are being defeated. Well, if it cannot hold this piece of real estate, then they have a point. This was always key ground and to abandon it seemingly without a fight looks much like the actions of a defeated army. Posted by: marcjf | Nov 9 2022 18:27 utc | 108 Tbx @ 104
Yes, Russia will either live like a sovereign state or with a first strike nuclear gun to its head as a bowed vassal state. At this point, where we are today, only by pushing the west back to 1991 borders can Russia exist as sovereign. Maybe with Poland and Romania fully in NATO but no nukes there or Finland. The Padishah Emperor has promised to make Finland a melting arctic super-power after Russia is carved up or bowed, it tugs the leash, growls and salivates. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 18:28 utc | 109 Something has not smelled right since the start of the whole ‘SMO’ ‘this is false opposition’ came to mind and has stuck ever since then. Russia has fought a half-assed war and now the Emperor has no clothes. You don’t win a football game by losing territory, nor do you win a war that way. I highly doubt that Ukraine will bleed out, NATO will keep pumping in manpower from all over their territories. It sucks but the current reality is that we have been had. Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 18:29 utc | 110 It might soon be a really good time for a few more “border adjustments”. Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:31 utc | 111 I fully agree with some posters about Martyanov: narcisisstic fraud, reminds me of a guy banging his hand on a table in a bar loudest- that being his “argumentation”. Faker (Saker) has become comic relief. He is in thick of events publishing musical commentary. His new “thing” is disappearing for few days “offline” before every Russian debacle (first Kupyansk/Izum and now Kherson) with long lamentations about Florida hurricanes 🙂 (where he lives). Posted by: IGOR VUKSANOVIĆ | Nov 9 2022 18:32 utc | 112 @Arch Bungle & Down South, re: Kherson psyop Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 18:36 utc | 113 … Its all about missiles, arty, drones now. And of course manpower. Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 9 2022 18:37 utc | 115 Scott Ritter recently said that Russia had not suspended their mobilization and he expected a much larger number than 300,000 new troops, but I read that Putin has said the mobilization is over, done, period. Anyone have any idea why Putin wouldn’t continue mobilizing and get ahead of the curve by adding about 1,000,000 troops so he could hold the land they have and advance on Odessa and Kiev? Something doesn’t seem to add up here. Ideas anyone? Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:41 utc | 116 @ Down South 55 Posted by: ltexpat | Nov 9 2022 18:42 utc | 117 “Remember that they are saving their best troops and weapons for the eventuality that they will have to fight NATO. So unless there is an immediate threat to the statehood of Russia, you will not see shock and awe. They are not fighting this war to impress you.” Posted by: RDF2 | Nov 9 2022 18:44 utc | 118 It sucks but the current reality is that we have been had. Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 18:46 utc | 119 Aircraft carriers and jetfighters belong in museums. Or will soon. Posted by: Nobody | Nov 9 2022 18:54 utc | 120 My initial thoughts have proven correct then. Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 9 2022 18:55 utc | 121 Russia should have withdrawn from the other side of the Dnieper River as soon as it was clear the HIMARS were going to destroy all the bridges. The bridges being taken out were pooh poohed by many – ferries, pontoon bridges, helicopters – but that proves to be wishful thinking. Posted by: Simon | Nov 9 2022 18:59 utc | 122 Lets hear your justification now friggin troll nutter. Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 19:00 utc | 123 Dima of Military Summary thinks Jake Sullivan persuaded the Ukies to allow the evacuation process, possibly with a view to freezing the conflict. Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:00 utc | 124 The problems with this war for Russia is not new, it has been visibile already back when the war started:
Written back in april, it is like nothing has changed https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/04/02/lett-a02.html Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 19:02 utc | 125 I read that the Ukrainians think the withdrawal is a trap. Could be. I remember seeing videos of 18 large Russian missile launchers heading west about 6 weeks ago. If the Ukes sent 40,000 troops and equipment to Kherson, they would have to eat a lot of long range missiles from those launchers and from the ships in the Black and Caspian seas. Plus air launched missiles. I took another look at the map of the Kherson area. Doesn’t look like a real good place for defense. Resupply would be a problem. Too many rivers and bad terrain. It appears this battle will be fought with artillery and missiles. Since Russia has the most of both, it looks good for the Russians. Not so good for the Ukrainian military. Take a deep breath and relax everybody. Posted by: Leroy | Nov 9 2022 19:05 utc | 126 This is depressing news. I am interested in all viewpoints except the ones that tie it to US elections. Posted by: wagelaborer | Nov 9 2022 19:06 utc | 127 If Sullivan is really involved here, it amounts to a conceding defeat on the Ukie/Western side. Let them have their PR victory but the fact is that the Ukie side was going to get crushed. Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:08 utc | 128 Hermius
LOL have you already forgot Kherson/Russia had a referendum and they voted to join Russia like 1 month ago? Are the people there just pawns for Russia to be played with? Russia now have to give back Kherson to Ukraine, that is they have to give back a part of Russian land to Ukraine in a war they started! It cannot be more humilating than this. Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 19:09 utc | 129 After seeing people cope for months about how Putin is secretly a genius and how the latest stupid decision is a part of his master plan I really don’t believe this is some kind of maskirovka or whatever. The only side benefiting from this war at all are the warmongering think-tanks, fossil fuel companies, the military-industrial complex, American imperialism and NATO strategists. Thanks to Russia NATO has proven it’s “usefulness” to her European client states and the US can now expect near total monopoly over the energy market of western europe in the future. I can guarantee you that champagne bottles were opened by overpaid cold war era remnant trans-atlantic diplomats when the war broke out. This conflict is more proof that the collapse of the Soviet Union has been the biggest tragedy in recent history. Posted by: FullTimeTankie | Nov 9 2022 19:12 utc | 130 There were some pics a few weeks ago of a punch of prefab concrete pillboxes lined up across a street in Kherson posted in a couple of telegrams, cant find it now. I think the pic was from the same day Russian flags came down from a few admin buildings. Maybe Russian MOD asked them to be taken down? Anybody able to find that pic? Found a video of a truck convoy carrying them into Kherson, but no dice on the deployed pillbox pic. Posted by: Colonel Applewhite | Nov 9 2022 19:13 utc | 131 The retreat is real. As I have noted here numerous times, the Dnieper River is a logical boundary between Ukraine and Novorossia, as much as possible. Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 19:16 utc | 132 This evacuation of Kherson is a curious maneuver, but I can’t help but see it against the over-arching backdrop of the 300,000 additional Russian troops while, at the same time, Ukraine is getting less and less in way of military supplies from the West. Posted by: Woogs | Nov 9 2022 19:16 utc | 133 The purpose of taking Kherson was to use it as a bargaining chip. The backroom negotiations are already taking place. Russia will withdraw from Kherson (and possibly Zaparozhe) in return for recognition of Lugansk and Donetsk as “Russian”. Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 19:18 utc | 134 Actually, I think you have been had by watching too much western MSM. Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:22 utc | 135 Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 45 Posted by: vato | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 136 Dima of Military Summary thinks Jake Sullivan persuaded the Ukies to allow the evacuation process, possibly with a view to freezing the conflict. Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 137 “There is no doubt a lot we don’t know and this might be misinformation or even maskirovka.” Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 19:24 utc | 138 More on the impotence/unwillingness to act properly:
That train should be blown up. Sure, it might be hard when it’s in motion, but it will have to eventually stop in Odessa, and it will not be unloaded in seconds, it will sit there for sufficiently long to allow for a missile attack on the depot. Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 19:25 utc | 139 Posted by: vato | Nov 9 2022 19:23 utc | 151 Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:27 utc | 140 RUSSIAN RETREAT FROM KHERSON Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 9 2022 19:29 utc | 141 1. Concern about logistics and supply if the conflict stretched for a month or more + uncertainty about preservation of the pontoon bridges. Posted by: chet380 | Nov 9 2022 19:30 utc | 142 While everyone is staring at Kherson, more important developments. Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 19:34 utc | 143
Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 19:34 utc | 144 I’m surprised no one is discussing the success Russia is having in Bakmut and taking the entire Donetsk airport. Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:37 utc | 145 FILE IN: Mental disorder is a communicable disease Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 19:37 utc | 146 People respect strength not weakness. Russia’s projection of weakness will only embolden Ukraine and the west to further apply the pressure. This foolishness about waiting for the ground to freeze is just that, foolishness. Ukraine is not waiting for the ground to freeze. They are fighting and taking territory under all conditions. By the time the ground freezes or if it freezes Russia would have lost a lot more territory as they retreat. A defeat for Russia means serious problems for Putin as ordinary Russians will once again face embarrassment. The bear has no teeth. Posted by: Curious Passerby | Nov 9 2022 19:40 utc | 147
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19408 Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 148 So Putin evacuated Kherson, and then made a gift of it to Kiev. It becomes increasingly obvious that Putin is either an idiot (not likely) or he is fulfilling his early training as a WEF young leader. The whole shemozzle since the great Feb 24 march on Kiev (and subsequent retreat) to the delayed and frankly silly, ineffective bombing of Kiev, then the nonsensical “waiting for the ground to freeze,” and now the clever abandon-Kherson strategy reeks of FAKE opposition. As an American, I am way too familiar with the FAKE opposition dance since we go through it constantly with our fake democrat-republican “rivalry.” Clearly the WEF was always the puppet-master in this blood sacrifice, and the goal is something about destroying Western currency as prelude to introducing a global digital currency (which will operate as brownie points). Posted by: RJ | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 149 Didn’t Putin say, some time before all the stallings and setbacks: “This year, the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts will join the Russian Federation.”? Not sure if it was before of after he talked about Alexander the Great and his conquests… Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 150 The Russians had two options with respect to Kherson, put enough troops in there for an offensive that takes the south (i.e. Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and Odessa) or get behind the Dniepr. The former option would have removed Ukraine from the Black Sea and threatened the rear of the Ukrainian south-eastern front, especially if combined with a thrust up the eastern side of the Dniepr, but Russia added extra forces far too late for this. Michael Hudson explains the Ukraine situation. Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:46 utc | 152 The withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper, as I’ve already said and assume to be correct was for security reasons. Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 9 2022 19:47 utc | 153 Yes, you can have a frozen conflict with whole or part of your territory occupied (in this case Russian territory in Kherson). Like East Timor, the whole of which was occupied by Indonesia. Or Donetsk and Lugansk, from the Ukie point of view. Anyway, this is speculation based on the assumption that this is a deal brokered by Sullivan (as Dima believes). Just throwing it out there to answer b’s question. Posted by: Jonathan W | Nov 9 2022 19:49 utc | 154 @ 163 Saint Jimmy Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 19:51 utc | 155 There’s no way to view the evacuation from Kherson as anything other than as a military disaster for Russia. Ukraine has made it clear that they still hope to conqueror all of the liberated territory, including Crimea. Capturing Kherson makes that dream a possibility, which will only embolden the neocon warmongers in the US who aren’t paying any sort of price for this war, since there is open conflict between Russia and NATO now, NATO can funnel long range armaments into Ukraine to keep the pressure on Russia to target the land bridge and other supply routes to say nothing of interrupting water supplies to Crimea all over again. Posted by: Kadath | Nov 9 2022 19:54 utc | 156 This thread confirms my approach to comments at MOA concerning the SMO (or Peace Enforcement as one Russian website referred to it) and it is – if the comment is critcal of Russia, Putin etc, I don’t bother reading it any further. (I might check the author isn’t Peter_au, grumpy with a sore head, because if it is I will read it then as he always writes something worthwhile!) Posted by: tucenz | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 157 Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:43 utc | 167 Posted by: Mushroom | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 158 This is my take on the pullout. According the the Ukraine channels a deal has been made between US and Russia. The basics of the deal I believe is that US wants to wind down the Ukraine war so it can concentrate on China and Russia from the time Sutovikin was appointed views the Dnieper as the best long term defensive position. Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 9 2022 20:00 utc | 159 Sorry this retreat doesnt make any sense unless our entire assessement of the situation is wrong. Posted by: Orgel | Nov 9 2022 20:04 utc | 160 What next – a retreat from the rest of Kherson in order to save lives? And then – further retreats? Scorched earth is a valid tactic – but only up to a point. This won’t mean the downfall of Putin …but it’s a political blow. Some kind of boost is needed for the Russians somewhere with something. Posted by: steve brown | Nov 9 2022 20:08 utc | 161 Tbx @ 101
Correct. Hopefully the Kherson retreat is the end of the original SMO failure and now starts Surovikin’s war. Note not phase two but a start from scratch. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:10 utc | 162 Re: 179, Saint Jimmy Posted by: Kadath | Nov 9 2022 20:11 utc | 163 Really Ed, Posted by: Greg | Nov 9 2022 20:11 utc | 164 This was not a popular comment at the time, but then truth is more important than popularity. Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 9 2022 20:13 utc | 165 tucenz | Nov 9 2022 19:57 utc | 176 Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 9 2022 20:16 utc | 166 Zanon – 12. O for such certainty! Your dripping condescension is not really as bad as denial (which B isn’t engaged in btw….you misread that in your glee at today’s news) but it reveals what a NATO simp you are. Which is far worse. Your type was all moist when Liman was captured under similar circumstances – and look how that turned the war in favour of Kiev – – o wait. Posted by: steve brown | Nov 9 2022 20:16 utc | 167 Orgel @ 180
It doesn’t add up because the SMO is a clusterfuck. Clusterfucks never add up. It doesn’t mean this war is over, the British had two years of failures in WW2 before turning it around and then to be honest the Russians and Americans turned it around for them. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 168 @Ed Nelson 128 Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 169 So guys, what will happen first? Posted by: ForgotMyOriginalNick | Nov 9 2022 20:22 utc | 170 Saint Jimmy @ 189
I hear yah, but it’ll be a long hard road down and a long hard road up. Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:24 utc | 171 So to sum up the russian idiocy in Kherson, it would be: Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 172 Something about this pull out of Kherson doesn’t sit right. Why would you advertise it and risk a Dunkirk type evacuation situation? Not sure how many bridges across the river are left but they are probably within artillery range and certainly within HIMARS range. To state the obvious, bridges are natural choke points… Even the Ukrainian military seems skeptical per previous posts. So we will see what happens next. Posted by: ctiger | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 173 I must say the last few months have been pretty discouraging for those of us who would rather see a multipolar world than the triumph of GAE (Global American Empire). Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Nov 9 2022 20:26 utc | 174 Financial Times: Putin’s nuclear threats may hint at an electromagnetic pulse strike Posted by: Tom | Nov 9 2022 20:28 utc | 175 Bit of a frenzy today in the primate section. The trolls are throwing their shit like monkeys from a cage. I got my rubber apron, now where did I put that covid face shield? Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 20:28 utc | 176 @OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 20:19 utc | 191 Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 9 2022 20:30 utc | 177 Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:25 utc | 194 Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 9 2022 20:32 utc | 178 I think everyone is coming to the understanding that ww3 is government vs society. Controllers vs the controlled. Putin is acting to destroy Russia as zelensky is acting to destroy ukraine. Putin and his associates stole the foreign reserves and the endless slaughter is on purpose to destroy societys resistance to ever greater control on ever greater scale. If it doesn’t make sense just remember death is the point to make way for control. It’s essential Russias nukes and space capabilities are eliminated for this plan. Russia will nuke itself by the end. Putin has already hinted at it. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:39 utc | 179 Obviously the Kherson deputy that was killed today in a car “accident” was assassinated. As usual Russia is 1 step behind of everything. Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:41 utc | 180 Putin enjoys high approval and would just need to persuade Russians that the country is facing an existential threat, which it is. Posted by: rk | Nov 9 2022 20:43 utc | 181 Thats what I mean by government. The controllers. A rose by any other name and all that. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:45 utc | 182 The Ukraine is very marginal to Russia’s current interests. Leaving aside the status of the Donbas oblasts which have rejoined Russia and Crimea, where the process began in 2014, Russia needs only to defend its borders, and Belarus’s from NATO aggression. Those aren’t small jobs, given the nature of the fascist regime in Kiev and its teenage advisors in Canada, the UK and Washington, but the nuclear deterrent and small numbers of garrison troops ought to take care of that. Posted by: bevin | Nov 9 2022 20:47 utc | 183 Ukrainians seem to be more cautious about calling this withdrawal a victory than many “experts” on this blog. And Ukies should know better. One thing I know for sure is that anyone who thinks that the decision to withdraw the troops is made today needs some rudimentary lessons in military strategy. Posted by: Steve | Nov 9 2022 20:55 utc | 184 Tom_Q_Collins
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_the_messenger Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 20:55 utc | 185 Shoigu is killing soldiers for no reason, just to retreat later.
The reason is that russias rulers sold their country for the foreign reserves. They’re killing their people so Russia can be dismantled and its nukes and space program destroyed. Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 9 2022 20:57 utc | 186 @ YetAnotherAnon 193 Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 21:05 utc | 187 Brian Berletic does a much better analysis of the Russian moves than anyone else here has. Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Nov 9 2022 21:08 utc | 188 – When you pin your hopes on the success of Republican thugs taking both houses of Democratic thugs to prevent Western guns from ending up on the front because you’re incompetent to do it yourself; Posted by: Alex, the Medium | Nov 9 2022 21:14 utc | 189 Whether the withdrawal across the Dnieper River in Kherson is a force-saving measure or a maskovoka ruse, the challenge now added to taking Nikolaev and Odessa sometime in the future is that RF will have to conduct a wide river crossing. … Doing this under fire is not optimum. Posted by: Mummer | Nov 9 2022 21:18 utc | 190 @207 bevin – I fully agree about Central Asia. I ran across this article yesterday.
Good cop, bad cop or trying to maintain a multi-vector foreign policy and walk the tightrope like Nazarbayev did? Posted by: lex talionis | Nov 9 2022 21:18 utc | 191 @194 Zanon Posted by: zeun | Nov 9 2022 21:22 utc | 192 I cannot help noticing how this blog has recently become ever more putrid with trolls. Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 9 2022 21:28 utc | 193 A Canadian “hero” dies in Ukraine…
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/man-killed-defending-ukrainian-city-from-russian-forces-1.6644569 Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 9 2022 21:28 utc | 194 I wonder if the Russians have suddenly decided that the West has become agreement-capable? Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 195 @191 OdessaConnected Posted by: grits | Nov 9 2022 21:31 utc | 196 Well, I was wrong and I admit it when I am wrong. Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 9 2022 21:32 utc | 197 So much nonsense. Posted by: No War | Nov 9 2022 21:35 utc | 198 @180 Orgel Posted by: grits | Nov 9 2022 21:35 utc | 199 @William Gruff | Nov 9 2022 21:29 utc | 221 Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2022 21:38 utc | 200 |
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