It’s hunting season in Kherson

Posted by: yogz | Nov 9 2022 15:53 utc | 3

This might be the first war in history that a country lost because it was trying to be too nice to the other side.

Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Nov 9 2022 16:01 utc | 5

I would probably lean towards maskirovka. Kherson has formally joined Russia and losing the capital of the oblast would probably be disastrous politically even if it would make military matters easier. Of course I don’t think the immense pressure to give a decisive battle before withdrawal like Barclay de Tolly did at Smolensk and Kutuzov at Borodino and then abandoning Moscow is there for Surovikin. I think it’s likely for him to be able to organize things to fend off everything as the mobilized reinforcements get ready and then a winter offensive once the ground freezes.

Posted by: leaf | Nov 9 2022 16:02 utc | 7

Seems this is fallout from the Republican disaster yesterday… Putin was waiting for a sea change, but instead got Sullivan’s ultimatums. See McGregors comments with Napolitano about red lines.
If cold weather had cooperated, we might have actually seen the Russian counterattack. Now we have to wait and see what happens. Certainly, Russian Army is still a really big question mark, unlike RF drone warfare, missile & MLRS use…

Posted by: Simplicius | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 9

Q of the day: Is the Russian ‘retreat’ from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

LOL great, now even the blog owner is still in the denial stage.
Denial as a Defense Mechanism

Denial is a type of defense mechanism that involves ignoring the reality of a situation to avoid anxiety. Defense mechanisms are strategies that people use to cope with distressing feelings. In the case of denial, it can involve not acknowledging reality or denying the consequences of that reality.

https://www.verywellmind.com/denial-as-a-defense-mechanism-5114461
You know sometimes you must admit to yourself that you were wrong about things and not making up conspiracy theories or hidden agendas or allged “traps” by Russia.
There are no traps, there are no agenda, Russia simply sucks at waging this war, why, one can argue about.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 11

Wow, they are even evacuating Kherson city?
That is worse than what I posted a few hours ago in the previous thread (a few posters there were insulting me for “trolling” – simply for reporting that the RF were going to retreat to the city itself – LOL!)
This war has revealed the weakness of the RF armed forces, and Putins flawed strategy. Neoliberalism leads to corruption and disintegration of all state institutions – this includes the armed forces. Putin is simply a spurned neoliberal who continued the neoliberal gangster capitalism of the Yeltsin era, reigning in the worst excesses and patching over the worst holes with oil money.
A facade of strength but when you push on the door – the whole rotten edifice falls in.
Someone like Lukashenko, Xi, or Stalin is required.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 13

Devil’s work question. How is the Neo-Nazi slaughter of innocent civilians and the Russian massive counter-slaughter of ordinary Ukrainian conscripts going today?
TASS, Nov. 9th

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 16:15 utc | 15

Saint Jimmy @ 16
There was always the hope, and there are no coincidences.
The Russian Army is like the F35. These are the real “404” in Ukraine IMHO, and each of these fat ladies will still likely sing.
After the Kherson retreat, NATO will likely press even more – I hope Putin and Shoigu understand this…

Posted by: Simplicius | Nov 9 2022 16:18 utc | 17

The removal of troops around the Dnieper river appears to be more of a cautionary manoeuvre than anything else, and here’s the explanation.
“If the Kiev regime resorts to a larger water discharge from reservoirs or a more powerful rocket attack on the Kakhovka dam, this will create a flow of water flooding vast areas and causing civilian casualties. A further threat for civilians and of a complete isolation of our group of forces on the right bank of the Dnieper will emerge. Under these conditions, it is expedient to organize the defense along the barrier frontier of the Dnieper River,” the commander said.”
Maybe Russian intelligence got wind of the possibility, of the Ukrainian forces attacking the dam.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 9 2022 16:21 utc | 19

Saint Jimmy No 9:
One of the reasons I despise Martyanov more than any of the other obese obtuse blowhard blogger armchair generals is that he is so invested in the idea that he’s better than everyone else that he won’t allow even the slightest bit of dissent. The man is an idiot.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:25 utc | 21

I suspect this “long war” strategy has actually caused more casualties for both sides than a short, quick “blitz” type war. A few months ago, I tried to argue that point to “smoothie” and mentioned that the Russian flanks were too light and got banned. I’m about done with this crap – both sides. You’d have to shoot me before I would ever support nato or ukraine.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 9 2022 16:06 utc | 9

The only stable peace is rolling up the whole Ukronazi scum all the way to the Polish border.
What we have right now is this perverse situation in which while the US would never fight Russia directly it can now do it through Ukraine, and Russia can’t strike back at the key force multipliers without that being an open attack against NATO.
So it is an unequal and asymmetric fight.
Although there is a lot more that could have been done. See this comment:

This war has revealed the weakness of the RF armed forces, and Putins flawed strategy
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 14

Flawed strategy, sure.
But the Russians have not used their forces to anywhere close to their full extent. How many times have we seen the Ukies amassing troops out there in the open, and they just don’t get hit. Instead we see one retreat without a fight after another. Where are the thermobarics to clear out troop and armor concentration, aside from the short-range TOS-1A? Why are Zelensky, Zaluzhny, etc. still alive when they could have been Kalibr-ated a long time ago? Etc.
Anyway, back to the strategic situation. As long as there is an Ukraine it will be used as a battering ram against Russia and it will only get worse from here on. Long-rage missile attacks deep inside Russia, constant terrorist acts, eventually nukes will be stationed right at the border, wherever the border is.
The only way this ends peacefully is if there is no more Ukraine, we establish a new Iron Curtain at the Polish border, and then mutual nuclear deterrence hopefully works as prescribed once again. Although the questions of Finland and the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania will remain to be solved. But for that to even be an option, we have to end the current unequal fight rules of engagement.
And right now we have the following options:
1) The people in the Kremlin are indeed some combination of idiots and cucks
2) There is some long-term convoluted strategy we are not privy to
3) Actual treason is happening
We are all hoping for 2), but with each successive pullback it starts more and more difficult to believe in it…
Worse, if Ukraine had been decisively crushed quickly, there would not have been the current escalation. We are getting closer and closer to an open conflict, and then the choices are either to fight or the tuck your tail between your legs and surrender. And right now things are leaning towards the latter option…

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 16:31 utc | 23

March: Blog owner states Ukrainian resistance is nearly over.
Every retreat since then: This is a tactical retreat and part of the plan.
What is REALLY obvious to anyone not a cult member: Putin thought the War would be over in 2 months. It didn’t and he has absolutely no idea how to end it. He can’t win it on the battlefield. I am not sure he can actually lose it, either. Logically the smart thing is to retreat to a defensible line and hope the European will cracks from high energy prices this winter. But the Democratic performance yesterday means the US will continue to fund this war – and they can do this forever. His best bet is still a European revolt that leads to demands for peace – but that is unlikely and in a year the Europeans will have diversified their energy industry.
The real question – and what point do the retreats start to cost Putin politically in a serious way.

Posted by: No War | Nov 9 2022 16:34 utc | 25

Arse Bongle
So Kherson have fallen.
Where are you now huh? Hiding of course. Under a different moniker perhaps. What did I tell you back in october when you spammed the whole blog with “Kherson will not fall1”, calling me and everyone a troll for forseeing that development? Well who was right huh? Weasel.

Zanon said on oct 19: I will get back to you when Kherson have fallen so prepare a justification for that in the meantime, I do not think Sun Tzu can help you that time though.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/ukraine-drones-turn-off-electricity.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e3fec4200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e3fec4200c
Lets hear your justification now friggin troll nutter.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 27

By the facts.
1. From a military point of view, this is the most serious purely military defeat of the Russian Federation since 1991. In our case, this is already the 3rd serious military defeat after Balakleya and Krasny Liman. There are a number of issues related to the safety of the Kakhovskaya HPP after the withdrawal, the future of the Antonovsky Bridge and the North Crimean Canal, the evacuation of military equipment to the left bank, etc. etc.
2. The described reasons for the withdrawal of troops to the left bank are the result of problems that have taken place since the beginning of summer and, for various reasons, have not been eliminated. They stem from the failure to capture Nikolaev at the very beginning of the SMO, when the city was in a semi-encirclement, but due to various mistakes it was never taken.
3. Now the stake is obviously being placed on increasing the total strength of the grouping and releasing part of the forces operating on the right bank in the interests of offensive operations, which can be expected in late November-early December. If any operational successes are achieved there, of course, they will justify the withdrawal from Kherson. But it is worth remembering that not only we “release” troops from the right bank, but also the enemy.
4. It is obvious that the surrender of the regional center of the Russian Federation will have tangible consequences for the public consciousness and the enemy will certainly use it. In the absence of foreseeable success with the occupation of large settlements and advancement during the winter offensive, a series of military failures will accumulate much more serious internal discontent than sanctions.
5. Of course, there is also a version about some kind of agreement with the Americans “ala Minsk-3”, but so far there are no concrete actions on the part of the United States that would indicate this. So far, there are much more prerequisites for the continuation of intense hostilities.
6. Any offensive actions in the direction of Odessa and Nikolaev in the foreseeable future can be forgotten at this stage.
7. The SMO obviously continues, there is no refusal from the stated goals of the SMO. Looking forward to the winter season.
All in all, a gloomy day. It has to be experienced. The scar on the heart will remain.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19385

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 16:43 utc | 29

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 16:15 utc | 17
RF has been evacuating for 3 weeks? The artillery attack on the dam slipped my mind, because I haven’t read MoA for a while, and MSM neither noted nor bragged about damage. So. That threat alone, unlike a negotiated-settlement-that-will-never-happen calls for offensive maneuvering. Note: geography does not lie; left bank supply corridor was never defensible or superior position.

In addition, this will release a part of forces and capabilities that will be involved in active operations, including for offensives in other directions in the zone of the operation,” the general reported. (TASS)

smells like RF a setting trap for medium range target practice. It really does. They way AFU runs through inventory, I’d be surprised, if NATO can keep them in stock until New Years.
And even then, remember, children: US, UK, and shure as sh!t UA do. not. do. international law, law of war, or humanitarian law. If their lips are moving, they are lying.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 16:44 utc | 31

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 16:31 utc | 31
“Russia can’t strike back at the key force multipliers without that being an open attack against NATO.”
Russia failed to adhere to its initial “red line” no interference warning from the beginning, and then it was all over. Remember the early Kinzhal strike against the mercenary base in western Ukraine? That was supposed to deter NATO from involving itself in the western part of the country, and it failed.
Russia should have taken out rail lines, electric grids, etc. particularly in the west FROM THE BEGINNING. They should have stated that the use of US surveillance drones made the US a party to the war, and then should have taken out a drone. They did not effectively convey that they were serious about their warnings, and for this reason the US simply ignored them.

Posted by: WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:45 utc | 33

The order has been given. It is difficult to supply the right-bank grouping, we are withdrawing troops to the prepared defense lines.
Question to the political forces that hastily pushed through the referendums, published the theses “Russia is here forever”, talked about what had not yet been done.
There is a war going on, and professional soldiers should lead the fighting. Information front too.
As a result, it turned out that the military was preparing the withdrawal of troops, and politicians of various sizes who did not have the right to make a decision charged their propaganda resources with majestic theses of a capricious nature.
From this, the bitterness of the population became even stronger. From the discrepancy between reality and the expected.
Comrade Surovikin’s speech itself seemed exhaustive, clear and intelligible to us. In the familiar environment of military reports, he felt confident, and not as then in front of the teleprompter.
We must let the military do their job, helping where possible.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19391

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 16:47 utc | 35

Nato has bolstered UAF with 100k’s ’deactivated’ mercs and UAF mobilization could amount to 500-1000k conscripts. It takes a while to destroy that kind of force, even years. Just need to make sure to maintain superiority of artillery, drone warfare, air defense and solid lines to repel attacks, as so far. Patience.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 16:50 utc | 37

I love how all the arm chair generals, with no information about what the actual situation is on the ground, can come to the conclusion that “Russia is losing” or “Putin miscalculated” or that the “Russian army is a paper tiger.” If you’re not a troll, then settle down. (If you are a troll, GTFO.) The Russians know what they are doing…they could have taken Ukraine in two weeks if they wanted to indiscriminately kill everyone and destroy everything, but that is not the point of this military operation. And they are not going to blow their wad and go on a continuous offensive just to please the ignorant. They are taking their time, which is having the ideal combined effects of demilitarizing Ukraine and destroying the economies of their enemies. Remember that they are saving their best troops and weapons for the eventuality that they will have to fight NATO. So unless there is an immediate threat to the statehood of Russia, you will not see shock and awe. They are not fighting this war to impress you.

Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 39

@St Jimmy 34:
One of my two Disqus identities was blocked by him for disputing his contention that just because Russia can build icebreakers it can build aircraft carriers. The other was blocked for claiming – correctly – that there would be no Kharkov pincer counterattack and the proof was that if you rush forces by road from Moscow as an emergency measure that means you’re just trying to hold the line, and any counterattack is out of the question.
Anyone who is automatically against dissent is an idiot. He keeps boasting about his 3 books. Well, I wrote 5 – so far – and so what? How is writing three books an argument in favour of his argument, any more than my 5 are an argument in favour of mine? Going by that Stephen King should be an infallible authority in everything.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:53 utc | 41

Tbx

But the Russians have not used their forces to anywhere close to their full extent. How many times have we seen the Ukies amassing troops out there in the open, and they just don’t get hit. Instead we see one retreat without a fight after another. Where are the thermobarics to clear out troop and armor concentration, aside from the short-range TOS-1A? Why are Zelensky, Zaluzhny, etc. still alive when they could have been Kalibr-ated a long time ago? Etc.

+1.
Seems like Russia is either lost on missiles and fighter jets or incompetent to use them properly. Without the use of these weapons Russia is, obviously for everyone to see now, nothing.
Where Is Russia’s Air Force? Shouldn’t it be Dominating?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geSvbR9io3c
Why Russia is INCAPABLE of Air Superiority in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpzUCSdxi7k

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:55 utc | 43

General Seroviken will probably look into some of these little problems when he gets back from vacation.

Posted by: Chazz | Nov 9 2022 16:59 utc | 45

Ru command can easily arrange some nasty surprises to over cocky UAF advances yet. Nothing is written in stone, certainly not ”public announcements” like this.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 47

What is tragic is that this will embolden EU and US, Nato militarly, it proved their strategy with sanctions and military support worked.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 49

leaf @ 7

I think it’s likely for him to be able to organize things to fend off everything as the mobilized reinforcements get ready and then a winter offensive once the ground freezes.

I’m sure the Russians have well prepared military plans for the future but they had well laid plans for the start, then solid plans for the initial pull back, then the summer offensive, and the Karkov back and forth, then Izium, then…then…then, plans, plans, plans.
So far well laid plans haven’t panned out as west is the one that seems to have time on their side, time to pile in troops and weapons. Those saying Russia instead has time on its side maybe the west doesn’t give a flying f*ck if their economies go to hell as long as it wins this outright. USA, at least, has decided to ride out an EU depression for a geopolitical wet dream decades in the making.
If Kherson retreat isn’t a behind the scenes agreement btwn NATO and RF with Russia “going first” doing their part withdrawing to behind the Dnieper any winter offensive will be Russia’s last chance to get it right. Surovikin inherited the extended lines and lack of troops problem of the original SMO failure and was forced into retrenchment so all the shit suddenly appears to fall on his bald pate, it’s correct to reserve judgement on him for now.
At the very start of this war Putin should have asked himself what would Stalin now do, Lavrov what would Molotov do, Shoigu what would Zhukov do, Surovikin what would Konev do. Instead the thinking was what would Rumsfeld do, etc.
If a NATO had hazarded a move like this when the Soviet WW2 generation was still in power NATO HQ in France or later Brussels would have been tactically nuked on Feb 24 and war would have been avoided and ended there.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 51

Losing Kherson is a massive blow – My great uncle (grandpa’s brother) lived there – It seems to me that the RU army is unwilling to fight.
If you annex a territory you have a duty to defend it – what if Stalingrad (where my great uncle fought) had been so meekly surrendered?
Napoleon said that the Morale is three times to the physical – It seems that the RU army has no morale or backbone at all – this is a disgrace

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 9 2022 17:02 utc | 53

@Victor Scarpia
Just commenting on the situation as I have observed it since the beginning. Capturing a bridgehead on the west bank was brilliant. Not having sufficient forces to capitalize on it was stupid. So was losing the initiative this summer, it means the RF did not plan this well and I think Putin tried to freeze the conflict but failed. Also the retreat from Kharkov, how is it that the RF is so easily defeated when they could outflank the AFU formations from Belgorod?
There are two possibilities:
1) Russia’s goal is to drag this out as long as possible
2) The RF leadership is really that incompetent in which case it’s time for a Tsar to take the helm

Posted by: me | Nov 9 2022 17:04 utc | 55

Retreating from Kherson is strategically sound, but probably a bad decision in the end.
This is similar to Chiang Kai-shek’s decision to order the retreat from Shanghai to the much more defensible “Chinese Hindenburg Line”, leaving the civilians who cannot evacuate at the mercy (or rather the lack thereof) of the Japanese. This damaged morale so much that the same troops who held Shanghai for months couldn’t hold the new defensive line for more than two weeks, resulting in the infamous Rape of Nanking.

Posted by: Sid Victor Cattoni | Nov 9 2022 17:09 utc | 57

@68;
You made a spelling error – it’s not “Tsar”, it’s “Chairman”.
As in, “Chairman of the Council of People’s Commissars of the Soviet Union”.
No-one voted for the Soviet Union to dissolve itself. It was the first and worst “color revolution”.
The Yeltsinist regime is illegitimate.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 17:11 utc | 59

Perhaps relevant is the report that the Ukrainians doubt that the Russians really will abandon Kherson:
https://topwar.ru/204799-ukrainskoe-komandovanie-ne-verit-v-plany-rossii-ostavit-herson-tam-do-50-tysjach-rossijskih-voennyh.html .
The Ukrainians say there are Russian 50,000 troops were. Perhaps it really is Russian maskirovka. Let’s hope so.

Posted by: Sewad | Nov 9 2022 17:14 utc | 61

Adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s office,Mykhailo Podolyak : Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. Ukraine🇺🇦 is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19395

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 17:16 utc | 63

I think the Russians could be abandoning Kherson to give Ukraine a “victory” as part of peace negotiations.

Posted by: Clark | Nov 9 2022 17:18 utc | 65

The continuing (self) defeat of Russia goes on, unsurprisingly. After all the Putin era was the continuation of Eltsin: decommunization and demiturization through integration to globalized capital (mostly as a natural ressources exporter) and the oil+gas+raw rent went into new billionaires pockets (some of them zionists around Bibi Netanyahu, a giod friend of VVP). Salaries of specialists vital for national interests were gutted, top generals were chosen for their servility to.the Kremlin.
Of course the political consequences of this abject debacle of the current ultracapitalist order could be severe, But VVP succeeded in creating a total vaccuum (except the atlanticists LGBTQ liberals that served as a repulsive) : the communists are mostly opportunists and a caricature of the worse of the late soviet decay. The rightwing nationalists are also weak.
But russian civil society discovered its dynamism, strengh, innovation capacity. And most want a real, modern, social and patriotic Russian State.That is not something Moscow/London/Tel Aviv elites can tolerate for long. Better capitulation and rear demoralization (sorry “negotiation with the trusted oartners”).
A few links regarding Ukraine and Russian military:
“There are many examples in history when the seizure of any territory made further resistance to the army and even the existence of the state useless” https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/16898
The similarities with 1915 Tsarist Russia: failure to act in 2014 and 2022. https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/615
Russian banks: enemies of denazification. https://t.me/readovkanews/44510
The disaster of Russian military comm: basket case of the capitalist neoliberal war on the state’s ability to defend the nation, leaving it to citizens charity. Note that it has disastrous effects on infantry and friendly fire by artillery and infantry, loss of moral etc. https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7649
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7643
Axiological war and its cultural front: https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/16841
“Patriotism” of the current elites: worse than the decaying Romanov Era… https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/11748
Vital role of efficient comms and UAVs in modern warfare. https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/11734

Posted by: Kareem | Nov 9 2022 17:20 utc | 67

“Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River, including the regional capital of Kherson. The Defense Ministry explained that it wants to avoid unnecessary losses among its forces and spare the lives of civilians.” (RT this morning).
A lot of naysayers and trolls on this site, and RT, are sure that Russia has just given up the ghost and are running with their tail between their legs. Russia has just mobilized 300 thousand troops, and that with the 200 thousand already in the field, and the 85 thousand volunteers, over a half a million military troops are waiting for the right weather conditions to commence an offensive that may well put an end the Zelensky regime for good. So far, the weather has not dropped below 37 degrees F. It may well be mid to late December before the weather conditions are right for the offensive.
In the meantime, the Nazi forces would like nothing better than to pick off Russian troops one or two at a time like sitting ducks, while Russian forces have their backs against the Dnipro River. So far, the Russian forces have repelled every Nazis offensive launched against Kherson, sometimes at a high cost in lives and materials, but this sacrifice was to allow the evacuation of the 150,000 plus civilians living on the right bank of the Dnipro River, because we all know what Nazis do to pro-Russian civilians every chance the get; they are vicious beast fit only to be destroyed.
And yes, the Nazis will enter Kherson from the west and hoist their flags and declare victory, while the Western media will be all over the right bank of Kherson reporting mass graves and “Russian atrocities.” The naysayers will ask why Putin ran away, while the trolls will cackle and crow, but all that will soon end. From the left bank of the river, the Ukraine Nazis will become the sitting ducks to be taken out one and two at a time, and when the snow starts to fall and the sky turns a steely gray and the ground turns to icy cement, then naysayers and trolls will know that all your lies and bullshit has come to nothing.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 17:23 utc | 69

@31;
Simple, the reason for this “restraint” is that Russia does not have the capability to do so.
Troop concentrations move around, and the reconnaissance and command decision making abilities of the RF are totally inadequate to do this and they do not have even air superiority.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 34

Empirically false though.
During the Kharkov fiasco there were multiple situations in which random bloggers were screaming “there is a Ukie force concentration at such and such location, it needs to be destroyed”. Often it would be something quite static and localized, such as a railway junction. Again, bloggers on the internet, without the Russian intelligence resources. Not only that, but there were explicit reports about actual local commanders begging for missile strikes. Meaning that the positions were very well pinpointed and all that was necessary was for the Iskander to arrive there.
But it never did.
And it wasn’t for lack of missiles, because at the same time that was happening, heavy missiles were hitting repairs shops in Zaporozhie, Krivoy Rog, etc.
The way the whole “SMO” has been handled is completely incomprehensible.
And don’t get me started on “red lines”.
At the very least a couple RQ4 drones should have found their way to the bottom of the Black Sea.
Kherson is hard to resupply right now, but why the Ukrainians are allowed to amass such forces that it needs to be abandoned without a fight is completely inexcusable.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:29 utc | 71

President Navalny will have iPhones 14 in hands of Russian consumers and IMF austerity for all by January unless President Xi can pre-empt the color revolution. Maybe Vlad will screech some Fox News talking points one final time about bathrooms before the CIA goons throw him in the Moskva.

Posted by: linbiao | Nov 9 2022 17:33 utc | 73

@62
Almost 2500 years ago Sunzi wrote that no nation ever benefits from a long war.
Dragging it out is not just idiotic, it is ultimately suicidal.
Everything points to Possibility Two.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 17:34 utc | 75

The righteous talk about “When Ukrainian territories become a part of Russia, then you better watch what out” needs to be updated.
(As well, the claim of retreat due to possible flooding sounds like the same excuse “Mrs. Hen Goes to Market” never made it there: “The dam might break!” That was her last excuse.)

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 17:38 utc | 77

In the US Civil War, WW1, WW2, the winning side fell far behind in the first year or two, in WW2 UK went two years before a victory and Russia had German troops right outside Moscow. Napoleon took Moscow, granted after the Russians burnt it down. I agree with those saying Russia can’t loose, and in the end it has nukes, the question is how Russia will come out of it. As it wants, safe and strong with NATO behind 1991 borders and in control of it politics and markets, or with NATO right up against its borders holding a gun to its head and constantly forcing vassal terms on it, or something in between a precarious demilitarized zone across Ukraine with NATO arms stacked high in Poland, Romania and the Baltics.
How many dead Russians are each of those options worth?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:40 utc | 79

Kiril Stremousov, the outspoken Deputy Head of Kherson, has been killed in a car accident. Just a coincidence or something else?

Posted by: cirsium | Nov 9 2022 17:42 utc | 81

sln2002, right bank means the right side of the river downstream. Geographically, it’s the “north western” side.

Posted by: Verdant | Nov 9 2022 17:46 utc | 83

I rather like this move. It’s all Kutusov. Territory doesn’t count, armies do. I expect the Yanks, and the Brits and the Ukis will be beside themselves with delight and will want to press on to Moscow. While the Russians will simply concentrate on freeing the remainder of the Donbas- like they said they wanted to do at the start. How will it pan out? Dunno. They reckon that there has never been a successful river defence in a war. But that cuts both ways here.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 9 2022 17:49 utc | 85

“Almost 2500 years ago Sunzi [sic] wrote that no nation ever benefits from a long war.”
“Dragging it out is not just idiotic, it is ultimately suicidal.
Everything points to Possibility Two.”
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 17:34 utc | 85
_____
Agreed, but perhaps you could define “long war” for us. Is it 8 months? Or is it 20 years, as in US’ defeat by goat-herders in Afghanistan (another headstone in that graveyard of empires, eh?)? Or going-on 20 years in Iraq? Or is it 10 years in Syria? Has the US left Libya already? Hoping for perspective from an expert strategerist.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 17:51 utc | 87

I think the Russian withdrawal will be presented as a victory for “the west”. I think the wihdrawal saves lives, but politically it is a big mistake. Why bother holding a referendum in Kherson oblast in order to abandonit. Next week the Ukes will go on safari again and another does of MSM ware crimes will hit our screens.

Posted by: Kaiama | Nov 9 2022 17:53 utc | 89

Seems like Russia is either lost on missiles and fighter jets or incompetent to use them properly. Without the use of these weapons Russia is, obviously for everyone to see now, nothing.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:55 utc | 50

Obviously the inability to suppress air defense is a big problem, but I have also not seen the long-range MLRS in use.
The KAB-500KR has a range of >15 km, which is not enough to get out of the AD range.
But it isn’t their sole such weapon.
On paper the Russians have the Tornado-S which is longer range than the HIMARS and also has thermobaric rockets (9M55S).
There are also 700-kg warhead versions of the Iskander.
That is nowhere to be seen in the SMO…

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:55 utc | 91

My prediction a long time ago was that the best RF strategy was to cut off and absorb into RF everything east of the Dneipr and leave Naziland for the EU to pay for. Dneipr is a big river that can be defended – natural border.
Odessa, Mykolayiv and Kherson are west of the Dneipr unfortunately, so their fate is sealed.
Looks like I was correct.
Posters who were recently talking about how “Russia must take Odessa and go to the Polish border” – delusional.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 45

What you are describing doesn’t solve anything.
This war is about Ukraine with its historical importance for Russia, and it is about the Nazi problem.
But all of that is secondary to the major motivation, which is that nuclear deterrence is about to be broken.
With nukes in Kharkov. Chernigov and Sumy the US has a decapitating first strike capability.
It will have it with nukes in Kiev or Kremenchuk too just as well.
If this was primarily about those first two things, the war would have started much earlier. It only started in February because Ukraine started talking about nukes and making actual moves in that direction.
With current delivery systems the river just isn’t a useful border from a geostrategic perspective, it is still too close.
And yes, Finland will have to be dealt with too if the US tries to put nukes there. How is that going to happen given the current cuckish behavior I have no idea…

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:57 utc | 93

Russia failed to adhere to its initial “red line” no interference warning from the beginning, and then it was all over. Remember the early Kinzhal strike against the mercenary base in western Ukraine? That was supposed to deter NATO from involving itself in the western part of the country, and it failed.
Russia should have taken out rail lines, electric grids, etc. particularly in the west FROM THE BEGINNING. They should have stated that the use of US surveillance drones made the US a party to the war, and then should have taken out a drone. They did not effectively convey that they were serious about their warnings, and for this reason the US simply ignored them.
Posted by: WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:45 utc | 38

I remember that strike very well.
But after that various CIA and NATO centers have been operating with impunity and few, if any, were ever hit.
And yes, AWACS planes should have been downed.
So we go back to my three listed possibilities above.
Which one is it?

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:59 utc | 95

@ TBx (31)
I believe we can safely go with Option 2. “There is some long-term convoluted strategy we are not privy to”
I can tell you the long-term strategy because the broad strokes are obvious. No one in Moscow wants to talk about the price paid because the pro-Western troll army would go all emotional about the very real pain, and try to get Russia to commit suicide. That’s what the 5th column in Russia is paid to do.
As TBx wrote, the whole Ukraine project needs to be rolled up to the Polish border, but even that is not enough to achieve the goals laid out by the Kremlin in December 2021. The two bigger goals are (1) ridding the Ukraine of Nazis, and (2) rolling NATO back out of Eastern Europe. That’s a very tall order, a big price tag.
Clearly this takes lots of time to deliver. I prioritize the required steps roughly in this chronological order.
1. Russia is getting NATO arsenals exhausted in the Ukraine, thus reducing the NATO threat for a couple of years. At the same time, Russia is mobilizing and adapting to new realities.
2. The Ukrainians themselves have to become convinced that Nazism is very bad for them. Washington has been supporting Ukraine’s Nazis since the week before WW2 ended in Europe. The CIA has planted Nazism deeply in Ukrainian soil, and it requires a lot of suffering for Ukrainians to realize the madness of Nazism. Very sad but there’s no way around this.
3. General Winter has yet to deploy his divisions. Since the EU seems to have stored enough gas to get through the winter of 2022-2023, the real damage will come in 2023-2024 when Europe will only have a fraction of the gas they need. General Winter will wake up a lot of the slumbering dolts all over Europe. The General’s divisions are flanked by EU citizens who are getting exposed to outright fascist repression, which can’t be hidden when, in the next year or so, it becomes thousands of dissidents in prisons. The evil nature of the EU project is slowly being exposed to larger groups of people, and the already-awake will start to plan to take power in whatever way they can. It’s very early days, but the demise of the EU and the American puppets is almost a foregone conclusion, simply because the Empire offers a very bleak future to Europe.
4. The part of the world that is not under the Empire’s thumb is learning to adapt to life as sovereign nations with their own economic agendas. They will grow their economies to huge sizes (e.g. India’s will double in what, 5 years?) and if a corrupt ruling elite refuse to do so, as in today’s Pakistan, the eventually the people will sweep them out of power.
5. As the last and final step, the American people will awaken to the realization that they, too, don’t benefit from the Empire and the unipolar world. That takes a lot of time, but it has already started. Yesterday I happened to get into a conversation with three strangers in their 60’s and we were all on the same page. One of them seems to know more than me on some topics. That surprised me. This awakening will pick up speed with the decline of the US dollar as an instrument of forced economic contributions from the nations still in the dollar domain. It will take years, and one of the early requirements here in the US, is to create organizations which are build for the long term, rather than always chasing the mirage of elections two years from now. That will come, but in its own time.
So you have to understand as many people have noted, “This is not about the Ukraine.” The world is facing years of protracted struggle. Even when Russia gets what it wants in the Ukraine, the Empire will remain in attack mode until it no longer can. The Empire will try to rebuild a high-volume military economy in North America, but I think that’s already a lost cause and will only hasten the demise of America’s economy. It isn’t doable technically or economically, and the American people won’t support it.
For the US, a hard landing versus a soft landing will depend on the American people waking up in time and pursuing realistic goals efficiently. That may or may not happen, but in the immortal words of the mortal George Bush, Jr., “This sucker is going down.” Eventually.
So yeah, you could call it a convoluted strategy, but really it’s more a matter of determination to survive, and the strategy will adapt and overcome future realities.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 9 2022 18:04 utc | 97

Tbx
Adding to that, also Sweden – that is about like Finland to join Nato as well – seems to be wishing to get nukes.
New Swedish PM Says Open to Nukes Under NATO
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/02/sweden-nukes-under-nato/
So yes Russia have put itself in a quite strategically bad position with this war to say the least.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 18:07 utc | 99