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November 09, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-195

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

 

 

Posted by b on November 9, 2022 at 15:36 UTC | Permalink

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Russians report attack repelled with several hundred Ukrainian casualties (all three prongs).

Posted by: Josh | Nov 9 2022 15:44 utc | 1

that has been the question of the month, or past 2 months, lol.......... this whole thing in kherson is getting pretty anti-climatic..

Posted by: james | Nov 9 2022 15:50 utc | 2

It's hunting season in Kherson

Posted by: yogz | Nov 9 2022 15:53 utc | 3

With Kherson abandoned Russia will basically have a turkey shoot on the Ukranians trying to raise flags there.

I wouldnt call it a trap. But a few days/weeks of turkey shooting.

Posted by: Comandante | Nov 9 2022 15:53 utc | 4

This might be the first war in history that a country lost because it was trying to be too nice to the other side.

Posted by: Donbass Lives Matter | Nov 9 2022 16:01 utc | 5

@PP 237 last thread:

Yeah, everyone who isn't one of the deluded Putin cult is a "troll".

Especially when they're right.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:02 utc | 6

I would probably lean towards maskirovka. Kherson has formally joined Russia and losing the capital of the oblast would probably be disastrous politically even if it would make military matters easier. Of course I don't think the immense pressure to give a decisive battle before withdrawal like Barclay de Tolly did at Smolensk and Kutuzov at Borodino and then abandoning Moscow is there for Surovikin. I think it's likely for him to be able to organize things to fend off everything as the mobilized reinforcements get ready and then a winter offensive once the ground freezes.

Posted by: leaf | Nov 9 2022 16:02 utc | 7

It's odd. Very early 03:00 ET, RT had a brief dispatch from some Kherson admin boasting--and this was memorable--RF "handed" AFU "their ass". This file is now scrubbed. I'm inclined to think that retreat is strategic, mostly because the complicated Alex M. "pity victory" rationale behind Secret Sullivan Peace talk just is not plausible. Uncle Volody is crazy as a june bug, and US is all bluff, all day.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 16:03 utc | 8

Seems this is fallout from the Republican disaster yesterday... Putin was waiting for a sea change, but instead got Sullivan's ultimatums. See McGregors comments with Napolitano about red lines.

If cold weather had cooperated, we might have actually seen the Russian counterattack. Now we have to wait and see what happens. Certainly, Russian Army is still a really big question mark, unlike RF drone warfare, missile & MLRS use...

Posted by: Simplicius | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 9

It is both maskirovka and real. Pull back to protect your fighters (real) and evacuate the town so that you can blast away without collateral damage. Depending on how things play out, then reassess.

If the Ukranians were to surge into an abandoned urban area, they would be sitting ducks, glowing in thermal imagery, ripe for attack by lawn mowers. You could also sacrifice the area to thermobarics, killing all life there.

I have no doubt that a lot of thought goes into planning operations like this, and there is constant re-evaluation - not just at the micro level (one city), but the broader war too.

Posted by: PP | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 10

Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

LOL great, now even the blog owner is still in the denial stage.

Denial as a Defense Mechanism

Denial is a type of defense mechanism that involves ignoring the reality of a situation to avoid anxiety. Defense mechanisms are strategies that people use to cope with distressing feelings. In the case of denial, it can involve not acknowledging reality or denying the consequences of that reality.

https://www.verywellmind.com/denial-as-a-defense-mechanism-5114461

You know sometimes you must admit to yourself that you were wrong about things and not making up conspiracy theories or hidden agendas or allged "traps" by Russia.
There are no traps, there are no agenda, Russia simply sucks at waging this war, why, one can argue about.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 11

It is definitely real and had just been officially announced. Damaged bridges, which were barely sufficient to start with, upcoming frieze-up on Dniepr, combined with the fact that in most years Dniepr does not actually forms ice thick enough for vehicle movement, and the remaining problem with the lack of manpower, until all the mobilized personnel are trained and formed into units are likely causes. This decision was hinted all the way back in mid-October.

It is a significant military defeat for Russia, however you look at it, but it was mostly pre-determined by declaring mobilization only in late September, instead of May, which left the Russian troops badly outnumbered. To a much lesser extent by HIMARS attacks on the bridges.

Posted by: Stanislav | Nov 9 2022 16:09 utc | 12

Wow, they are even evacuating Kherson city?

That is worse than what I posted a few hours ago in the previous thread (a few posters there were insulting me for "trolling" - simply for reporting that the RF were going to retreat to the city itself - LOL!)

This war has revealed the weakness of the RF armed forces, and Putins flawed strategy. Neoliberalism leads to corruption and disintegration of all state institutions - this includes the armed forces. Putin is simply a spurned neoliberal who continued the neoliberal gangster capitalism of the Yeltsin era, reigning in the worst excesses and patching over the worst holes with oil money.

A facade of strength but when you push on the door - the whole rotten edifice falls in.

Someone like Lukashenko, Xi, or Stalin is required.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 13

Lol again! I posted my take on other thread just before this got put up!
Great minds …lol. So pardon the repeat:

Rope-a-dope coming to its end.

Final round and a bit of a dance a wiggle a pivot and deadly blows - only a towel thrown in from their corner will stop the complete annihilation of the starving cold Ukrops now.

Ukrops have no choice but to be sucked into the vacuum.

What a bag! What a giant Santa’s sack!! What a great Xmas Mother of All Cauldrons.

Big arrows ready to bloom through the blizzards.

What ever god belief they have will be tested to destruction The dumbest of dumb ubermensch and their global robber barons. Who really need to personally suffer by the proscription of their old Wealth and removal of their legacy’s and progeny from the affairs of Humanity once and for all. .

Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 14

Devil's work question. How is the Neo-Nazi slaughter of innocent civilians and the Russian massive counter-slaughter of ordinary Ukrainian conscripts going today?

TASS, Nov. 9th

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 16:15 utc | 15

The owner of PMC "Wagner" Prigozhin, who previously criticized the command of the Russian army for retreating from Liman, today supported the decision to leave Kherson.

“The decision to withdraw troops from the right bank of the Dnieper is not an easy one, but it speaks of the readiness of the command to take responsibility for the lives of soldiers. The withdrawal of troops with minimal losses is Surovikin’s achievement, which does not do honor to Russian weapons, but emphasizes the personal qualities of the commander, who acted like a man who is not afraid of responsibility, ”said Prigozhin.

However, with the troops gone, the risk of collateral damage also goes down. Fire away.

From Telegram/SlavaZ

Posted by: PP | Nov 9 2022 16:18 utc | 16

Saint Jimmy @ 16

There was always the hope, and there are no coincidences.
The Russian Army is like the F35. These are the real "404" in Ukraine IMHO, and each of these fat ladies will still likely sing.

After the Kherson retreat, NATO will likely press even more - I hope Putin and Shoigu understand this...

Posted by: Simplicius | Nov 9 2022 16:18 utc | 17

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 14

I think this is true.

Posted by: WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:19 utc | 18

The removal of troops around the Dnieper river appears to be more of a cautionary manoeuvre than anything else, and here's the explanation.

"If the Kiev regime resorts to a larger water discharge from reservoirs or a more powerful rocket attack on the Kakhovka dam, this will create a flow of water flooding vast areas and causing civilian casualties. A further threat for civilians and of a complete isolation of our group of forces on the right bank of the Dnieper will emerge. Under these conditions, it is expedient to organize the defense along the barrier frontier of the Dnieper River," the commander said."

Maybe Russian intelligence got wind of the possibility, of the Ukrainian forces attacking the dam.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 9 2022 16:21 utc | 19

If the withdrawal from Kherson city and the right bank is indeed simply a military tactic, it doesn't seem to take into account the huge PR victory for Ukraine. Such a PR victory will lead to more and more Western funding for Ukraine. Anyone know why Russia would choose this option rather than sending another 100,000 or more troops to defend Kherson then move on to Mykolaiv?

Scott Ritter recently said that Russia had not suspended their mobilization and he expected a much larger number than 300,000 new troops, but I read that Putin has said the mobilization is over, done, period. Anyone have any idea why Putin wouldn't continue mobilizing and get ahead of the curve by adding about 1,000,000 troops so he could hold the land they have and advance on Odessa and Kiev? Something doesn't seem to add up here. Ideas anyone?

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 9 2022 16:24 utc | 20

Saint Jimmy No 9:

One of the reasons I despise Martyanov more than any of the other obese obtuse blowhard blogger armchair generals is that he is so invested in the idea that he's better than everyone else that he won't allow even the slightest bit of dissent. The man is an idiot.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:25 utc | 21

@Odessa Connected 27:

As a despised "troll" on this site, I can tell you that the only thing I have ever relied on Putin to do is throw the LDNR under the bus. This whole war was basically an attempt to compel the Ukranazi coup regime to be kind enough to take back the LDNR under the terms of Minsk II. I am still convinced that the referenda that acceded Kherson and Zaporozhye oblasts to Russia were in spite of Putin, and meant to prevent Russia from doing a Kharkov on them.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:30 utc | 22

I suspect this "long war" strategy has actually caused more casualties for both sides than a short, quick "blitz" type war. A few months ago, I tried to argue that point to "smoothie" and mentioned that the Russian flanks were too light and got banned. I'm about done with this crap - both sides. You'd have to shoot me before I would ever support nato or ukraine.

Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 9 2022 16:06 utc | 9

The only stable peace is rolling up the whole Ukronazi scum all the way to the Polish border.

What we have right now is this perverse situation in which while the US would never fight Russia directly it can now do it through Ukraine, and Russia can't strike back at the key force multipliers without that being an open attack against NATO.

So it is an unequal and asymmetric fight.

Although there is a lot more that could have been done. See this comment:

This war has revealed the weakness of the RF armed forces, and Putins flawed strategy

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:10 utc | 14

Flawed strategy, sure.

But the Russians have not used their forces to anywhere close to their full extent. How many times have we seen the Ukies amassing troops out there in the open, and they just don't get hit. Instead we see one retreat without a fight after another. Where are the thermobarics to clear out troop and armor concentration, aside from the short-range TOS-1A? Why are Zelensky, Zaluzhny, etc. still alive when they could have been Kalibr-ated a long time ago? Etc.

Anyway, back to the strategic situation. As long as there is an Ukraine it will be used as a battering ram against Russia and it will only get worse from here on. Long-rage missile attacks deep inside Russia, constant terrorist acts, eventually nukes will be stationed right at the border, wherever the border is.

The only way this ends peacefully is if there is no more Ukraine, we establish a new Iron Curtain at the Polish border, and then mutual nuclear deterrence hopefully works as prescribed once again. Although the questions of Finland and the Aegis Ashore installations in Poland and Romania will remain to be solved. But for that to even be an option, we have to end the current unequal fight rules of engagement.

And right now we have the following options:

1) The people in the Kremlin are indeed some combination of idiots and cucks
2) There is some long-term convoluted strategy we are not privy to
3) Actual treason is happening

We are all hoping for 2), but with each successive pullback it starts more and more difficult to believe in it...

Worse, if Ukraine had been decisively crushed quickly, there would not have been the current escalation. We are getting closer and closer to an open conflict, and then the choices are either to fight or the tuck your tail between your legs and surrender. And right now things are leaning towards the latter option...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 16:31 utc | 23

@22;

Sailing Yacht A, launched in 2015, designed by Philippe Starck (exteriors and interiors) and built by Nobiskrug in Kiel, Germany for the Russian billionaire Andrey Melnichenko, displaces about 12,000 tonnes.

The yacht was seized by the Italian authorities on 12 March 2022 in the port of Trieste, due to the EU's sanctions imposed on a number of Russian businessmen as a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The cruiser Moskva, with a crew of 510, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet and the most powerful warship in the region also happened to displace 12,000 tonnes.

Sunk by cheap Ukrainian missiles, or maybe an accident due to poor maintenance and training.

Both ships built from the labor power of Russian / Soviet workers.

Chairman Xi - head of the Chinese Communist Party - a few months ago celebrated the launching of the first indigenous aircraft carrier of the PLN - 80,000 tonnes.

I believe the PLN already has the largest navy in the world by tonnage.

Capitalism makes a nation weak - Communism makes it strong. Shame on Gorbachev and Yeltsin, but also on Putin for his "moderation" - really, weakness.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:33 utc | 24

March: Blog owner states Ukrainian resistance is nearly over.
Every retreat since then: This is a tactical retreat and part of the plan.

What is REALLY obvious to anyone not a cult member: Putin thought the War would be over in 2 months. It didn't and he has absolutely no idea how to end it. He can't win it on the battlefield. I am not sure he can actually lose it, either. Logically the smart thing is to retreat to a defensible line and hope the European will cracks from high energy prices this winter. But the Democratic performance yesterday means the US will continue to fund this war - and they can do this forever. His best bet is still a European revolt that leads to demands for peace - but that is unlikely and in a year the Europeans will have diversified their energy industry.

The real question - and what point do the retreats start to cost Putin politically in a serious way.

Posted by: No War | Nov 9 2022 16:34 utc | 25

He can't win it on the battlefield.

Posted by: No War | Nov 9 2022 16:34 utc | 33

He certainly can, but is not willing to.

Why did the strikes against infrastructure stop?

Sure, there are rolling blackouts, but it is not enough .

Railways are still not disabled to prevent logistics.

The diesel locomotives are probably enough for the military. So why were the railways depots not hit with missiles?

Just one of many, many things that could have been done but are not.

And this isn't for lack of technical capability.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 16:39 utc | 26

Arse Bongle

So Kherson have fallen.
Where are you now huh? Hiding of course. Under a different moniker perhaps. What did I tell you back in october when you spammed the whole blog with "Kherson will not fall1", calling me and everyone a troll for forseeing that development? Well who was right huh? Weasel.

Zanon said on oct 19: I will get back to you when Kherson have fallen so prepare a justification for that in the meantime, I do not think Sun Tzu can help you that time though.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/ukraine-drones-turn-off-electricity.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e3fec4200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e3fec4200c

Lets hear your justification now friggin troll nutter.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 27

@31;

Simple, the reason for this "restraint" is that Russia does not have the capability to do so.

Troop concentrations move around, and the reconnaissance and command decision making abilities of the RF are totally inadequate to do this and they do not have even air superiority.

NATO has something like 300 satellites monitoring the entire area compared to about 5 for RF.

They can't sent bombers to carpet bomb large troop concentrations because the bombers would be shot down, and/or the Ukrainians would disperse first having had advance NATO warning.

Because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO had a 25 year head start on the RF forces.

Russia has an advantage in hypersonic missiles, but these are basically expensive conventional missiles useful for conventional attacks against NATO infrastructure in the event of all-out war.

In Ukraine they are too expensive to use often. Cheaper PGMs and air dominance is required here. Which as said is lacking.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 28

By the facts.

1. From a military point of view, this is the most serious purely military defeat of the Russian Federation since 1991. In our case, this is already the 3rd serious military defeat after Balakleya and Krasny Liman. There are a number of issues related to the safety of the Kakhovskaya HPP after the withdrawal, the future of the Antonovsky Bridge and the North Crimean Canal, the evacuation of military equipment to the left bank, etc. etc.

2. The described reasons for the withdrawal of troops to the left bank are the result of problems that have taken place since the beginning of summer and, for various reasons, have not been eliminated. They stem from the failure to capture Nikolaev at the very beginning of the SMO, when the city was in a semi-encirclement, but due to various mistakes it was never taken.

3. Now the stake is obviously being placed on increasing the total strength of the grouping and releasing part of the forces operating on the right bank in the interests of offensive operations, which can be expected in late November-early December. If any operational successes are achieved there, of course, they will justify the withdrawal from Kherson. But it is worth remembering that not only we "release" troops from the right bank, but also the enemy.

4. It is obvious that the surrender of the regional center of the Russian Federation will have tangible consequences for the public consciousness and the enemy will certainly use it. In the absence of foreseeable success with the occupation of large settlements and advancement during the winter offensive, a series of military failures will accumulate much more serious internal discontent than sanctions.

5. Of course, there is also a version about some kind of agreement with the Americans "ala Minsk-3", but so far there are no concrete actions on the part of the United States that would indicate this. So far, there are much more prerequisites for the continuation of intense hostilities.

6. Any offensive actions in the direction of Odessa and Nikolaev in the foreseeable future can be forgotten at this stage.

7. The SMO obviously continues, there is no refusal from the stated goals of the SMO. Looking forward to the winter season.

All in all, a gloomy day. It has to be experienced. The scar on the heart will remain.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19385

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 16:43 utc | 29

@No War 33

I agree with every word you said, but to add:

Literally anyone with any knowledge of Ukranazistan could have told by April - when Elensky turned down negotiations- that the attempt to compel Ukranazistan to a settlement had failed. That's apart from the many, many of us (including myself), who had been warning for years that Ukraine was becoming nazified as fast as its military was getting NATOcised. So Putin actually knows less than a random man in India who only has friends in both St Petersburg and Kiev. Amazing.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:43 utc | 30

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 16:15 utc | 17

RF has been evacuating for 3 weeks? The artillery attack on the dam slipped my mind, because I haven't read MoA for a while, and MSM neither noted nor bragged about damage. So. That threat alone, unlike a negotiated-settlement-that-will-never-happen calls for offensive maneuvering. Note: geography does not lie; left bank supply corridor was never defensible or superior position.

In addition, this will release a part of forces and capabilities that will be involved in active operations, including for offensives in other directions in the zone of the operation," the general reported. (TASS)
smells like RF a setting trap for medium range target practice. It really does. They way AFU runs through inventory, I'd be surprised, if NATO can keep them in stock until New Years.

And even then, remember, children: US, UK, and shure as sh!t UA do. not. do. international law, law of war, or humanitarian law. If their lips are moving, they are lying.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 16:44 utc | 31

I think everybody is "blowing smoke", as they say.

We will have to wait to see what it means.

The election is now over, however it comes out, so we may see more dramatic changes in the narrative, as Winter is still coming.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 9 2022 16:44 utc | 32

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 16:31 utc | 31


"Russia can't strike back at the key force multipliers without that being an open attack against NATO."

Russia failed to adhere to its initial "red line" no interference warning from the beginning, and then it was all over. Remember the early Kinzhal strike against the mercenary base in western Ukraine? That was supposed to deter NATO from involving itself in the western part of the country, and it failed.

Russia should have taken out rail lines, electric grids, etc. particularly in the west FROM THE BEGINNING. They should have stated that the use of US surveillance drones made the US a party to the war, and then should have taken out a drone. They did not effectively convey that they were serious about their warnings, and for this reason the US simply ignored them.

Posted by: WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:45 utc | 33

I fully agree with Mr. Prigozhin's opinion on Surovikin's decision. Yevgeny Viktorovich very accurately noted that Surovikin saved a thousand soldiers who were in actual encirclement.

After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made a difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers.

Kherson is a very difficult area without the possibility of a stable regular supply of ammunition and the formation of a strong, reliable rear. Why was this not done from the first days of the special operation? This is another question. But in this difficult situation, the general acted wisely and far-sightedly - he evacuated the civilian population and ordered a regrouping.

So there is no need to talk about the "surrender" of Kherson. "Surrender" together with the fighters. And Surovikin protects the soldier and takes a more advantageous strategic position - convenient, safe.

Everyone knew from the very first days of the special operation that Kherson was a difficult combat territory. The soldiers of my units also reported that it was very difficult to fight in this area. Yes, it can be kept, it is possible to organize at least some supply of ammunition, but the cost will be numerous human lives. And this forecast does not suit us.

Therefore, I believe that Surovikin acted like a real military general, not afraid of criticism.
He is responsible for the people. He sees better.

Thank you, Sergey Vladimirovich, for taking care of the guys! And we will not stop hitting the enemy and we will not get tired.

-Kadyrov


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19390

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 16:46 utc | 34

The order has been given. It is difficult to supply the right-bank grouping, we are withdrawing troops to the prepared defense lines.

Question to the political forces that hastily pushed through the referendums, published the theses "Russia is here forever", talked about what had not yet been done.

There is a war going on, and professional soldiers should lead the fighting. Information front too.

As a result, it turned out that the military was preparing the withdrawal of troops, and politicians of various sizes who did not have the right to make a decision charged their propaganda resources with majestic theses of a capricious nature.

From this, the bitterness of the population became even stronger. From the discrepancy between reality and the expected.

Comrade Surovikin's speech itself seemed exhaustive, clear and intelligible to us. In the familiar environment of military reports, he felt confident, and not as then in front of the teleprompter.

We must let the military do their job, helping where possible.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19391

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 16:47 utc | 35

It's a trap.

As I've been repeating on these forums for some time now.

It will be sprung when the AFU has committed enough forces to Kherson.

Grozny all over again ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 9 2022 16:49 utc | 36

Nato has bolstered UAF with 100k’s ’deactivated’ mercs and UAF mobilization could amount to 500-1000k conscripts. It takes a while to destroy that kind of force, even years. Just need to make sure to maintain superiority of artillery, drone warfare, air defense and solid lines to repel attacks, as so far. Patience.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 16:50 utc | 37

@34;

It is a dispiriting indication of the parlous state of Western discourse that people latch on to almost anyone who will consistently say something different to the mainstream propaganda line.

Even obvious narcissistic frauds like Martynov.

There appears to be almost no-one with any expertise out there writing for a general online audience. Guess they are busy with real jobs.

Thus total grifters and morons fill the voids. "I WANT TO BELIEVE"

My prediction a long time ago was that the best RF strategy was to cut off and absorb into RF everything east of the Dneipr and leave Naziland for the EU to pay for. Dneipr is a big river that can be defended - natural border.

Odessa, Mykolayiv and Kherson are west of the Dneipr unfortunately, so their fate is sealed.

Looks like I was correct.

Posters who were recently talking about how "Russia must take Odessa and go to the Polish border" - delusional.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 38

I love how all the arm chair generals, with no information about what the actual situation is on the ground, can come to the conclusion that "Russia is losing" or "Putin miscalculated" or that the "Russian army is a paper tiger." If you're not a troll, then settle down. (If you are a troll, GTFO.) The Russians know what they are doing...they could have taken Ukraine in two weeks if they wanted to indiscriminately kill everyone and destroy everything, but that is not the point of this military operation. And they are not going to blow their wad and go on a continuous offensive just to please the ignorant. They are taking their time, which is having the ideal combined effects of demilitarizing Ukraine and destroying the economies of their enemies. Remember that they are saving their best troops and weapons for the eventuality that they will have to fight NATO. So unless there is an immediate threat to the statehood of Russia, you will not see shock and awe. They are not fighting this war to impress you.

Posted by: Victor Scarpia | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 39

So it appears that the conquest of Odessa is reported sine die.
This decision might be right from purely operational sense, nevertheless the opinion of various internet agencies, but will also give a morale boost to the Banderists.
In any case, we cant judge Surovikin's actions, not knowing 90% of whats really going on.

Posted by: Aaron Hilel | Nov 9 2022 16:52 utc | 40

@St Jimmy 34:

One of my two Disqus identities was blocked by him for disputing his contention that just because Russia can build icebreakers it can build aircraft carriers. The other was blocked for claiming - correctly - that there would be no Kharkov pincer counterattack and the proof was that if you rush forces by road from Moscow as an emergency measure that means you're just trying to hold the line, and any counterattack is out of the question.

Anyone who is automatically against dissent is an idiot. He keeps boasting about his 3 books. Well, I wrote 5 - so far - and so what? How is writing three books an argument in favour of his argument, any more than my 5 are an argument in favour of mine? Going by that Stephen King should be an infallible authority in everything.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:53 utc | 41

I place my bets on 'maskirovka'. It's rather weird that the evacuation of Kherson has been announced and ongoing for weeks while the actual front line was quite stable. Then there were the Russian announcements that the AFU will attack. It's almost as if the AFU was being called out by Surovikin and the likes. Inaction would have shown AFU weakness while in fact reacting is likely walking into an ambush. My assumption is that the AFU will be allowed to approach Kherson city but at a very high cost and then the winter offensive will be kicked off.

Posted by: xor | Nov 9 2022 16:54 utc | 42

Tbx

But the Russians have not used their forces to anywhere close to their full extent. How many times have we seen the Ukies amassing troops out there in the open, and they just don't get hit. Instead we see one retreat without a fight after another. Where are the thermobarics to clear out troop and armor concentration, aside from the short-range TOS-1A? Why are Zelensky, Zaluzhny, etc. still alive when they could have been Kalibr-ated a long time ago? Etc.

+1.

Seems like Russia is either lost on missiles and fighter jets or incompetent to use them properly. Without the use of these weapons Russia is, obviously for everyone to see now, nothing.

Where Is Russia's Air Force? Shouldn't it be Dominating?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geSvbR9io3c

Why Russia is INCAPABLE of Air Superiority in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpzUCSdxi7k

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:55 utc | 43

Air supwriority is a thing of the past. With advances in AA and missile technology. Thats why US is afraid to even attack Venezuela.

Its all about missiles, arty, drones now. And of course manpower.

Aircraft carriers and jetfighters belong in museums. Or will soon.

Posted by: Comandante | Nov 9 2022 16:58 utc | 44

General Seroviken will probably look into some of these little problems when he gets back from vacation.

Posted by: Chazz | Nov 9 2022 16:59 utc | 45

[posted in the open thread by mistake]

I surmise this thread is in response to the announcement (which I just saw on BBC news) that General Suvorikin, the Commander of the SMO, has ordered all Russian troops withdrawn rom Kherson, on the grounds they can no longer be supplied:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63573387 .

Can anyone confirm this independently ? If it's true, General Suvorivkin should be dismissed (maybe shot; smacks of treason). The situation n Kherson is no worse than Stalingrad in November 1941 with the Volga starting to freeze, which the Dniepr isn't yet. Also with an excellent prospect for an enveloping Russian flanking attack across the Kakhovka dam, where the Russians control both banks for some distance. BBC says on air that the Defence Minister (Shogun) gave the order. If so, he should go also. Someone, Putin himself, perhaps, needs to forcefully inform the military in Kherson that "there is no land east of the Dniepr."

Posted by: Seward | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 46

Ru command can easily arrange some nasty surprises to over cocky UAF advances yet. Nothing is written in stone, certainly not ”public announcements” like this.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 47

My understanding of Russian mobile defence is don’t waste many lives defending an indefensible position. Rather inflict as much casualties on the enemy trying to take that position and retreat to a more defendable position.

Then inflict as many casualties as you can on the enemy occupying that position until they are forced to retreat.

I don’t know what the strategy behind the retreat is but Surovikin made clear the positions they were abounding were undefendable.

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 48

What is tragic is that this will embolden EU and US, Nato militarly, it proved their strategy with sanctions and military support worked.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 49

I heard Dima on MilitarySummary going on about new diplomatic moves and Kherson and I just thought, not in 1000 years. Yeah, BigSerge had a nice article about the underinfantried BTG's, makes sense, Ritter was saying same, in the end RF had huge advantage in KIA, WIA with baling wire and duct tape and a shit load of artilery. Just think what they can do now. I follow Berletic, "The Cold Equations" (old scifi short story) will hold for not only artillery but also for small arms ammo. They are just running out, logistics, logistics, logistics. Artillery fire is still over 7:1 for Russia. The Geran, $100,000 to knock out a $10,000 Geran. RF keeps degrading the electrical system to what appears to be a pre-determined number that will not cause mass civilian casualties, but seriously, seriously degrade logistics. (Note they do not destroy that many of the 750 KV substations).

Posted by: paxmark1 | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 50

leaf @ 7

I think it's likely for him to be able to organize things to fend off everything as the mobilized reinforcements get ready and then a winter offensive once the ground freezes.

I'm sure the Russians have well prepared military plans for the future but they had well laid plans for the start, then solid plans for the initial pull back, then the summer offensive, and the Karkov back and forth, then Izium, then...then...then, plans, plans, plans.

So far well laid plans haven't panned out as west is the one that seems to have time on their side, time to pile in troops and weapons. Those saying Russia instead has time on its side maybe the west doesn't give a flying f*ck if their economies go to hell as long as it wins this outright. USA, at least, has decided to ride out an EU depression for a geopolitical wet dream decades in the making.

If Kherson retreat isn't a behind the scenes agreement btwn NATO and RF with Russia "going first" doing their part withdrawing to behind the Dnieper any winter offensive will be Russia's last chance to get it right. Surovikin inherited the extended lines and lack of troops problem of the original SMO failure and was forced into retrenchment so all the shit suddenly appears to fall on his bald pate, it's correct to reserve judgement on him for now.

At the very start of this war Putin should have asked himself what would Stalin now do, Lavrov what would Molotov do, Shoigu what would Zhukov do, Surovikin what would Konev do. Instead the thinking was what would Rumsfeld do, etc.

If a NATO had hazarded a move like this when the Soviet WW2 generation was still in power NATO HQ in France or later Brussels would have been tactically nuked on Feb 24 and war would have been avoided and ended there.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:01 utc | 51

…..were abandoning..

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 17:02 utc | 52

Losing Kherson is a massive blow - My great uncle (grandpa's brother) lived there - It seems to me that the RU army is unwilling to fight.

If you annex a territory you have a duty to defend it - what if Stalingrad (where my great uncle fought) had been so meekly surrendered?

Napoleon said that the Morale is three times to the physical - It seems that the RU army has no morale or backbone at all - this is a disgrace

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 9 2022 17:02 utc | 53

@54;

The thing that sticks out in my mind is a post whereby he painstakingly refuted an argument made by someone by disingenuously proving a completely unrelated point.

He was accurate enough in what he said (or just went to Wikipedia) - but it was such an obvious non-sequitur. I hate people who are disingenuous.

Anyone who listens to him is an idiot looking for mental comfort, i.e. exactly the same as your average "man on the street" in the EU listening to NATO propaganda.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 17:03 utc | 54

@Victor Scarpia

Just commenting on the situation as I have observed it since the beginning. Capturing a bridgehead on the west bank was brilliant. Not having sufficient forces to capitalize on it was stupid. So was losing the initiative this summer, it means the RF did not plan this well and I think Putin tried to freeze the conflict but failed. Also the retreat from Kharkov, how is it that the RF is so easily defeated when they could outflank the AFU formations from Belgorod?

There are two possibilities:
1) Russia's goal is to drag this out as long as possible
2) The RF leadership is really that incompetent in which case it's time for a Tsar to take the helm

Posted by: me | Nov 9 2022 17:04 utc | 55

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 9 2022 17:02 utc | 66


Napoleon said that the Morale is three times to the physical - It seems that the RU army has no morale or backbone at all - this is a disgrace

Napoleon was defeated by the Russians.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 9 2022 17:06 utc | 56

Retreating from Kherson is strategically sound, but probably a bad decision in the end.

This is similar to Chiang Kai-shek's decision to order the retreat from Shanghai to the much more defensible "Chinese Hindenburg Line", leaving the civilians who cannot evacuate at the mercy (or rather the lack thereof) of the Japanese. This damaged morale so much that the same troops who held Shanghai for months couldn't hold the new defensive line for more than two weeks, resulting in the infamous Rape of Nanking.

Posted by: Sid Victor Cattoni | Nov 9 2022 17:09 utc | 57

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 16:25 utc | 28

I fully agree. Almost everyone is an idiot according to him, for example 99% of all TG channels. I can't understand how a guy that has made so many erroneous statements all the time still can have that kind of attitude.

Posted by: Rageman | Nov 9 2022 17:09 utc | 58

@68;

You made a spelling error - it's not "Tsar", it's "Chairman".

As in, "Chairman of the Council of People's Commissars of the Soviet Union".

No-one voted for the Soviet Union to dissolve itself. It was the first and worst "color revolution".

The Yeltsinist regime is illegitimate.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 17:11 utc | 59

@72;

Easy to understand how when you realise that he is a classic Narcissist (Grandiose / Cerebral variant).

Remember, he sells books online, thus the aura of his personal "brand" is key. Repetition is the key to success.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 17:14 utc | 60

Perhaps relevant is the report that the Ukrainians doubt that the Russians really will abandon Kherson:

https://topwar.ru/204799-ukrainskoe-komandovanie-ne-verit-v-plany-rossii-ostavit-herson-tam-do-50-tysjach-rossijskih-voennyh.html .

The Ukrainians say there are Russian 50,000 troops were. Perhaps it really is Russian maskirovka. Let's hope so.

Posted by: Sewad | Nov 9 2022 17:14 utc | 61

I'm waiting for the Ukrainians to actually occupy Kherson City before I believe anything has changed. If Russia is really leaving, Ukraine should be there soon.

We'll see.

Posted by: GoFast | Nov 9 2022 17:15 utc | 62

Adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President's office,Mykhailo Podolyak : Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight. A part of the ru-group is preserved in the city, and additional reserves are charged to the region. Ukraine🇺🇦 is liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19395

Posted by: Down South | Nov 9 2022 17:16 utc | 63

Sewad

LOL Russia just announced the retreat like 2 hours ago. It takes time to securely transfer 50k of soldiers from an area to another.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:17 utc | 64

I think the Russians could be abandoning Kherson to give Ukraine a “victory” as part of peace negotiations.

Posted by: Clark | Nov 9 2022 17:18 utc | 65

Posted by: Clark | Nov 9 2022 17:18 utc | 79

Except that wont be enough.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Nov 9 2022 17:19 utc | 66

The continuing (self) defeat of Russia goes on, unsurprisingly. After all the Putin era was the continuation of Eltsin: decommunization and demiturization through integration to globalized capital (mostly as a natural ressources exporter) and the oil+gas+raw rent went into new billionaires pockets (some of them zionists around Bibi Netanyahu, a giod friend of VVP). Salaries of specialists vital for national interests were gutted, top generals were chosen for their servility to.the Kremlin.

Of course the political consequences of this abject debacle of the current ultracapitalist order could be severe, But VVP succeeded in creating a total vaccuum (except the atlanticists LGBTQ liberals that served as a repulsive) : the communists are mostly opportunists and a caricature of the worse of the late soviet decay. The rightwing nationalists are also weak.
But russian civil society discovered its dynamism, strengh, innovation capacity. And most want a real, modern, social and patriotic Russian State.That is not something Moscow/London/Tel Aviv elites can tolerate for long. Better capitulation and rear demoralization (sorry "negotiation with the trusted oartners").

A few links regarding Ukraine and Russian military:

"There are many examples in history when the seizure of any territory made further resistance to the army and even the existence of the state useless" https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/16898

The similarities with 1915 Tsarist Russia: failure to act in 2014 and 2022. https://t.me/roy_tv_mk/615

Russian banks: enemies of denazification. https://t.me/readovkanews/44510

The disaster of Russian military comm: basket case of the capitalist neoliberal war on the state's ability to defend the nation, leaving it to citizens charity. Note that it has disastrous effects on infantry and friendly fire by artillery and infantry, loss of moral etc. https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7649
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/7643

Axiological war and its cultural front: https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/16841

"Patriotism" of the current elites: worse than the decaying Romanov Era... https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/11748

Vital role of efficient comms and UAVs in modern warfare. https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/11734

Posted by: Kareem | Nov 9 2022 17:20 utc | 67

The electric grid is interesting, appears RF took it to 40% then stopped. The e-grid is like the internet a web, very resilient, you can punch a bunch of holes in it, knock out nodes, and it’ll function ok. But there will be that one point when one more hole causes the web to collapse with just some threads remaining, in this case isolated neighborhoods or towns on local power, rest is dark with no possibility or re-connection. The Russians who built the Ukrainian grid know exactly how to tackle this, where the straw that breaks the camels back is.

It’s very possible Putin gave an ultimatum to NATO, one more strike and Ukraine goes dark permanently with millions of refugees heading to Europe, lets talk. It’s also possible NATO said hmm, pull behind the Dnieper, which is best for you anyway, and maybe we can make a deal. We will see, and yes any agreement is a perfidious trap by the west.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:20 utc | 68

“Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River, including the regional capital of Kherson. The Defense Ministry explained that it wants to avoid unnecessary losses among its forces and spare the lives of civilians.” (RT this morning).
A lot of naysayers and trolls on this site, and RT, are sure that Russia has just given up the ghost and are running with their tail between their legs. Russia has just mobilized 300 thousand troops, and that with the 200 thousand already in the field, and the 85 thousand volunteers, over a half a million military troops are waiting for the right weather conditions to commence an offensive that may well put an end the Zelensky regime for good. So far, the weather has not dropped below 37 degrees F. It may well be mid to late December before the weather conditions are right for the offensive.
In the meantime, the Nazi forces would like nothing better than to pick off Russian troops one or two at a time like sitting ducks, while Russian forces have their backs against the Dnipro River. So far, the Russian forces have repelled every Nazis offensive launched against Kherson, sometimes at a high cost in lives and materials, but this sacrifice was to allow the evacuation of the 150,000 plus civilians living on the right bank of the Dnipro River, because we all know what Nazis do to pro-Russian civilians every chance the get; they are vicious beast fit only to be destroyed.
And yes, the Nazis will enter Kherson from the west and hoist their flags and declare victory, while the Western media will be all over the right bank of Kherson reporting mass graves and “Russian atrocities.” The naysayers will ask why Putin ran away, while the trolls will cackle and crow, but all that will soon end. From the left bank of the river, the Ukraine Nazis will become the sitting ducks to be taken out one and two at a time, and when the snow starts to fall and the sky turns a steely gray and the ground turns to icy cement, then naysayers and trolls will know that all your lies and bullshit has come to nothing.

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 9 2022 17:23 utc | 69

The withdrawal from Kherson City makes sense. Soon, the entire electrical network in Ukraine will be collapsed, and cold weather and no electricity or gas will force tens of millions of Ukrainians to evacuate to both the EU and Russia. This will be such a catastrophe for Ukraine that Kherson and Kharkov will be forgotten, and without a functioning central government, Russia will take back Kherson, Kharkov and as much of Ukraine as they want without much of a fight.

When Ukrainian soldiers are cold, hungry and out of fuel and ammunition, it's over. Maybe Putin would rather not kill more Ukrainian soldiers, but defeat them by turning off the heat and electricity and destroying diesel supplies.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Nov 9 2022 17:24 utc | 70

@31;

Simple, the reason for this "restraint" is that Russia does not have the capability to do so.

Troop concentrations move around, and the reconnaissance and command decision making abilities of the RF are totally inadequate to do this and they do not have even air superiority.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:41 utc | 34

Empirically false though.

During the Kharkov fiasco there were multiple situations in which random bloggers were screaming "there is a Ukie force concentration at such and such location, it needs to be destroyed". Often it would be something quite static and localized, such as a railway junction. Again, bloggers on the internet, without the Russian intelligence resources. Not only that, but there were explicit reports about actual local commanders begging for missile strikes. Meaning that the positions were very well pinpointed and all that was necessary was for the Iskander to arrive there.

But it never did.

And it wasn't for lack of missiles, because at the same time that was happening, heavy missiles were hitting repairs shops in Zaporozhie, Krivoy Rog, etc.

The way the whole "SMO" has been handled is completely incomprehensible.

And don't get me started on "red lines".

At the very least a couple RQ4 drones should have found their way to the bottom of the Black Sea.

Kherson is hard to resupply right now, but why the Ukrainians are allowed to amass such forces that it needs to be abandoned without a fight is completely inexcusable.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:29 utc | 71

Posted by: Sid Victor Cattoni | Nov 9 2022 17:09 utc | 71

There are a lot of factors at play. The front setting in the middle of the Dnieper increases the perception that this will become a long term industrial war. On shorter term, river front enables concentration of air defense on the river bank and supply lines intact.

Consequentially, Zaporizhe will become much more important front now for full control of whole south Ukraine, including Black Sea coast.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 9 2022 17:33 utc | 72

President Navalny will have iPhones 14 in hands of Russian consumers and IMF austerity for all by January unless President Xi can pre-empt the color revolution. Maybe Vlad will screech some Fox News talking points one final time about bathrooms before the CIA goons throw him in the Moskva.

Posted by: linbiao | Nov 9 2022 17:33 utc | 73

ALRIGHT.

Straighten me out: "left":west (How I read it, backing Moldova), "right":east. Which is it? Neither, but N, S?

France24 is blabbing about RF retreat from the "west bank".

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 17:33 utc | 74

@62

Almost 2500 years ago Sunzi wrote that no nation ever benefits from a long war.

Dragging it out is not just idiotic, it is ultimately suicidal.

Everything points to Possibility Two.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 17:34 utc | 75

Victor Scarpia | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 49
____

Well said, Victor. It's stunning how many Lazy-Boy generals have suddenly appeared here, feigning concern or openly gleeful. A lot of paychecks to be collected.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 17:35 utc | 76

The righteous talk about "When Ukrainian territories become a part of Russia, then you better watch what out" needs to be updated.

(As well, the claim of retreat due to possible flooding sounds like the same excuse "Mrs. Hen Goes to Market" never made it there: "The dam might break!" That was her last excuse.)

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 9 2022 17:38 utc | 77

@LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:20 utc | 78

It’s very possible Putin gave an ultimatum to NATO, one more strike and Ukraine goes dark permanently with millions of refugees heading to Europe, lets talk. It’s also possible NATO said hmm, pull behind the Dnieper, which is best for you anyway, and maybe we can make a deal. We will see, and yes any agreement is a perfidious trap by the west.
That is a theory. I had a similar idea. I have no way of knowing whether it would be true.

Something is not what it seems though.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2022 17:39 utc | 78

In the US Civil War, WW1, WW2, the winning side fell far behind in the first year or two, in WW2 UK went two years before a victory and Russia had German troops right outside Moscow. Napoleon took Moscow, granted after the Russians burnt it down. I agree with those saying Russia can't loose, and in the end it has nukes, the question is how Russia will come out of it. As it wants, safe and strong with NATO behind 1991 borders and in control of it politics and markets, or with NATO right up against its borders holding a gun to its head and constantly forcing vassal terms on it, or something in between a precarious demilitarized zone across Ukraine with NATO arms stacked high in Poland, Romania and the Baltics.

How many dead Russians are each of those options worth?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 17:40 utc | 79

What is the "analysis" that Martyanov, the stupi...ooops! stupendous obese former cabotage sailor, makes of this new resounding Russian success?
We need to know if we keep chanting the mantra about that 538-dimensional chess player who can't make an "O" out of a glass or if we can stop right now.

Posted by: Alex, the Medium | Nov 9 2022 17:40 utc | 80

Kiril Stremousov, the outspoken Deputy Head of Kherson, has been killed in a car accident. Just a coincidence or something else?

Posted by: cirsium | Nov 9 2022 17:42 utc | 81

@sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 17:33 utc | 84

It is odd terminology, I agree. But my conclusion is that it is from a perspective of looking downstream. So the right bank is on the west in this case.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 9 2022 17:45 utc | 82

sln2002, right bank means the right side of the river downstream. Geographically, it's the "north western" side.

Posted by: Verdant | Nov 9 2022 17:46 utc | 83

Posted by: Clark | Nov 9 2022 17:18 utc | 73

mad dogs do not negotiate.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 9 2022 17:48 utc | 84

I rather like this move. It’s all Kutusov. Territory doesn’t count, armies do. I expect the Yanks, and the Brits and the Ukis will be beside themselves with delight and will want to press on to Moscow. While the Russians will simply concentrate on freeing the remainder of the Donbas- like they said they wanted to do at the start. How will it pan out? Dunno. They reckon that there has never been a successful river defence in a war. But that cuts both ways here.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 9 2022 17:49 utc | 85

Breaking EU/NATO Censorship: alternate sources

https://twitter.com/HTracker10/status/1586023398081118209/photo/1

Posted by: Oui | Nov 9 2022 17:50 utc | 86

"Almost 2500 years ago Sunzi [sic] wrote that no nation ever benefits from a long war."

"Dragging it out is not just idiotic, it is ultimately suicidal.

Everything points to Possibility Two."

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Nov 9 2022 17:34 utc | 85
_____

Agreed, but perhaps you could define "long war" for us. Is it 8 months? Or is it 20 years, as in US' defeat by goat-herders in Afghanistan (another headstone in that graveyard of empires, eh?)? Or going-on 20 years in Iraq? Or is it 10 years in Syria? Has the US left Libya already? Hoping for perspective from an expert strategerist.

Posted by: Doug Hillman | Nov 9 2022 17:51 utc | 87

This move just shows that Russia is very serious about preparing a massive winter offensive. The troops in Kherson could have been supplied and held on but they could not participate in offensive operations elsewhere. Now, they will be ready to do so.
Remember, the focus for Russia is to de-militarize Ukraine, not to grab any specific piece of territory (that comes later).
BigSerge pointed out 4 possible lines of attack for the winter, one of which was out of Kherson. Now there are 3, (Donbass, Zaparozhia and Kharkiv). This move to pull out of Kherson increases the chance of success for all three of these which will likely be pursued simultaneously.
Once the winter offensive is over, Ukraine will be finished as a military power. Then Russia can cross the Dnieper at will and retake Kherson.
See you in the spring...

Posted by: Tom | Nov 9 2022 17:51 utc | 88

I think the Russian withdrawal will be presented as a victory for "the west". I think the wihdrawal saves lives, but politically it is a big mistake. Why bother holding a referendum in Kherson oblast in order to abandonit. Next week the Ukes will go on safari again and another does of MSM ware crimes will hit our screens.

Posted by: Kaiama | Nov 9 2022 17:53 utc | 89

Can anyone confirm this independently ? If it's true, General Suvorivkin should be dismissed (maybe shot; smacks of treason). The situation n Kherson is no worse than Stalingrad in November 1941 with the Volga starting to freeze, which the Dniepr isn't yet. Also with an excellent prospect for an enveloping Russian flanking attack across the Kakhovka dam, where the Russians control both banks for some distance. BBC says on air that the Defence Minister (Shogun) gave the order. If so, he should go also. Someone, Putin himself, perhaps, needs to forcefully inform the military in Kherson that "there is no land east of the Dniepr."

Posted by: Seward | Nov 9 2022 17:00 utc | 53

This isn't on Surovikin.

He inherited this mess and now has to sort it out.

The root of the problem is that insufficient forces were invested in the capture of Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog early in the SMO.

Had that been done, the river would have been out of artillery range.

Then the error is compounded by the refusal to enforce red lines and stop the delivery of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.

The result is that the Ukies have been doing daily HIMARS hits at the only two bridges across the river since August, making supply very difficult.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:55 utc | 90

Seems like Russia is either lost on missiles and fighter jets or incompetent to use them properly. Without the use of these weapons Russia is, obviously for everyone to see now, nothing.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 16:55 utc | 50

Obviously the inability to suppress air defense is a big problem, but I have also not seen the long-range MLRS in use.

The KAB-500KR has a range of >15 km, which is not enough to get out of the AD range.

But it isn't their sole such weapon.

On paper the Russians have the Tornado-S which is longer range than the HIMARS and also has thermobaric rockets (9M55S).

There are also 700-kg warhead versions of the Iskander.

That is nowhere to be seen in the SMO...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:55 utc | 91

I’m not knowledgeable militarily, but as I get older, less and less I deny my intuition, which in this case signals a trap by Russia.

Evacuate the civilians, UA soldiers rush in, but have no (or less) human shields. Russia drops flamethrowers on them.

Posted by: Featherless | Nov 9 2022 17:56 utc | 92

My prediction a long time ago was that the best RF strategy was to cut off and absorb into RF everything east of the Dneipr and leave Naziland for the EU to pay for. Dneipr is a big river that can be defended - natural border.

Odessa, Mykolayiv and Kherson are west of the Dneipr unfortunately, so their fate is sealed.

Looks like I was correct.

Posters who were recently talking about how "Russia must take Odessa and go to the Polish border" - delusional.

Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 9 2022 16:51 utc | 45

What you are describing doesn't solve anything.

This war is about Ukraine with its historical importance for Russia, and it is about the Nazi problem.

But all of that is secondary to the major motivation, which is that nuclear deterrence is about to be broken.

With nukes in Kharkov. Chernigov and Sumy the US has a decapitating first strike capability.

It will have it with nukes in Kiev or Kremenchuk too just as well.

If this was primarily about those first two things, the war would have started much earlier. It only started in February because Ukraine started talking about nukes and making actual moves in that direction.

With current delivery systems the river just isn't a useful border from a geostrategic perspective, it is still too close.

And yes, Finland will have to be dealt with too if the US tries to put nukes there. How is that going to happen given the current cuckish behavior I have no idea...

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:57 utc | 93

Cirsium

Kiril Stremousov, the outspoken Deputy Head of Kherson, has been killed in a car accident. Just a coincidence or something else?

Most likely an assassination, here is a photo of the scene/car he was travelling in, looks like an explosion.
https://t.me/intelslava/40813

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 17:57 utc | 94

Russia failed to adhere to its initial "red line" no interference warning from the beginning, and then it was all over. Remember the early Kinzhal strike against the mercenary base in western Ukraine? That was supposed to deter NATO from involving itself in the western part of the country, and it failed.

Russia should have taken out rail lines, electric grids, etc. particularly in the west FROM THE BEGINNING. They should have stated that the use of US surveillance drones made the US a party to the war, and then should have taken out a drone. They did not effectively convey that they were serious about their warnings, and for this reason the US simply ignored them.

Posted by: WJ | Nov 9 2022 16:45 utc | 38

I remember that strike very well.

But after that various CIA and NATO centers have been operating with impunity and few, if any, were ever hit.

And yes, AWACS planes should have been downed.

So we go back to my three listed possibilities above.

Which one is it?

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 9 2022 17:59 utc | 95

The SMO is not about occupying territory. It's about ridding Ukr of Nazis. Evacuating Kherson makes sense right now.

"Lost" territory can be re-taken when the time is right.
Lost lives cannot be resuscitated.

The 300,000 call ups has been completed. However, from what I've read, Russia continues to take new enlistments & could have a million man army within months.

Posted by: Mary | Nov 9 2022 18:03 utc | 96

@ TBx (31)

I believe we can safely go with Option 2. "There is some long-term convoluted strategy we are not privy to"

I can tell you the long-term strategy because the broad strokes are obvious. No one in Moscow wants to talk about the price paid because the pro-Western troll army would go all emotional about the very real pain, and try to get Russia to commit suicide. That's what the 5th column in Russia is paid to do.

As TBx wrote, the whole Ukraine project needs to be rolled up to the Polish border, but even that is not enough to achieve the goals laid out by the Kremlin in December 2021. The two bigger goals are (1) ridding the Ukraine of Nazis, and (2) rolling NATO back out of Eastern Europe. That's a very tall order, a big price tag.

Clearly this takes lots of time to deliver. I prioritize the required steps roughly in this chronological order.

1. Russia is getting NATO arsenals exhausted in the Ukraine, thus reducing the NATO threat for a couple of years. At the same time, Russia is mobilizing and adapting to new realities.

2. The Ukrainians themselves have to become convinced that Nazism is very bad for them. Washington has been supporting Ukraine's Nazis since the week before WW2 ended in Europe. The CIA has planted Nazism deeply in Ukrainian soil, and it requires a lot of suffering for Ukrainians to realize the madness of Nazism. Very sad but there's no way around this.

3. General Winter has yet to deploy his divisions. Since the EU seems to have stored enough gas to get through the winter of 2022-2023, the real damage will come in 2023-2024 when Europe will only have a fraction of the gas they need. General Winter will wake up a lot of the slumbering dolts all over Europe. The General's divisions are flanked by EU citizens who are getting exposed to outright fascist repression, which can't be hidden when, in the next year or so, it becomes thousands of dissidents in prisons. The evil nature of the EU project is slowly being exposed to larger groups of people, and the already-awake will start to plan to take power in whatever way they can. It's very early days, but the demise of the EU and the American puppets is almost a foregone conclusion, simply because the Empire offers a very bleak future to Europe.

4. The part of the world that is not under the Empire's thumb is learning to adapt to life as sovereign nations with their own economic agendas. They will grow their economies to huge sizes (e.g. India's will double in what, 5 years?) and if a corrupt ruling elite refuse to do so, as in today's Pakistan, the eventually the people will sweep them out of power.

5. As the last and final step, the American people will awaken to the realization that they, too, don't benefit from the Empire and the unipolar world. That takes a lot of time, but it has already started. Yesterday I happened to get into a conversation with three strangers in their 60's and we were all on the same page. One of them seems to know more than me on some topics. That surprised me. This awakening will pick up speed with the decline of the US dollar as an instrument of forced economic contributions from the nations still in the dollar domain. It will take years, and one of the early requirements here in the US, is to create organizations which are build for the long term, rather than always chasing the mirage of elections two years from now. That will come, but in its own time.

So you have to understand as many people have noted, "This is not about the Ukraine." The world is facing years of protracted struggle. Even when Russia gets what it wants in the Ukraine, the Empire will remain in attack mode until it no longer can. The Empire will try to rebuild a high-volume military economy in North America, but I think that's already a lost cause and will only hasten the demise of America's economy. It isn't doable technically or economically, and the American people won't support it.

For the US, a hard landing versus a soft landing will depend on the American people waking up in time and pursuing realistic goals efficiently. That may or may not happen, but in the immortal words of the mortal George Bush, Jr., "This sucker is going down." Eventually.

So yeah, you could call it a convoluted strategy, but really it's more a matter of determination to survive, and the strategy will adapt and overcome future realities.

Posted by: JessDTruth | Nov 9 2022 18:04 utc | 97


1) There are no surprises. Satellite Recon has changed the conduct of war, probably forever.

2) The Russians have said, for weeks, maybe months, there was an enormous Ukraine troop buildup in the south. They did not match it. They have consistently retreated when they had no advantage.

3) No electricity means no water and no transport. This is something that apparently is orchestrated to be easily forgotten. Satellite Recon enables destruction of power transmission, and then destruction of subsequent attempts to repair it. In the blink of an eye, this has become forgotten. This is laying siege to an entire country, not a city.

4) The only likely end to this war is a Ukrainian military coup. No one can believe anything promised or document signed by the current players. Senior Ukraine military trained in their university days alongside the guys who are not senior Russian military. They were classmates. They can trust each other in working out the details of what will be media described as WITHDRAWL, but will actually be surrender, as US and EU personnel are killed or deported.

Posted by: I Know Things | Nov 9 2022 18:05 utc | 98

Tbx

Adding to that, also Sweden - that is about like Finland to join Nato as well - seems to be wishing to get nukes.

New Swedish PM Says Open to Nukes Under NATO
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/11/02/sweden-nukes-under-nato/

So yes Russia have put itself in a quite strategically bad position with this war to say the least.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 9 2022 18:07 utc | 99

Biswapriya Purkayast @ 85

@62 Everything points to Possibility Two.

 After nine months watching this war in detail, in fact watching all this pan out since 1991, I agree with you. More than anything the Russians caught on too late to ready the force that was need to handle NATO advancement. If they are the same people they were the last 1000 years they will destroy NATO, the Soviets going into WW2 were massively worse off than the RF today, in every way possible, they were literally half starved going into the war. The west always underestimates the Russians, this time in history the question is will the Russians underestimate themselves?

Aslangeo @ 60

Napoleon said that the Morale is three times to the physical - It seems that the RU army has no morale or backbone at all - this is a disgrace

Your are through and through an idiot. It's not about moral, that's clear as day. It's about a massive preparatory failure on the part of the leadership military and political. NATO's been encroaching for a long time, Ukraine is huge, you need minimum a million man army, a fighting army prepared and ready to roll, to either advance or defend such territory. Apparently the USA after 70 years of failed wars finally learned something, and the western star-struck Russians forgot everything.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 9 2022 18:13 utc | 100

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