Ukraine Open Thread 2022-193
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Posted by b on November 8, 2022 at 15:05 UTC | Permalink
next page »Point of notification: for all the people who sneer that no one in Russia ever said Russia would conquer Ukraine in under two weeks and it was always just the West. I came across today an old article saying Konstantin Malofeev promised victory in two days.
https://www.dailyjolt.net/russia-will-conquer-ukraine-in-2-days-putin-oligarch-claims/
Yeah, he's just one guy. And I'm not employed full-time doing research on Russia. Take it for what it is. I'll post more as I find it. People who disagree should post evidence that Russian leadership believed the war in Ukraine would be a brutal operation that lasted over six months.
Posted by: GoFast | Nov 8 2022 16:27 utc | 2
There is no doubt Russia could have defeated Ukraine essentially instantly if they had wanted to, obviously they didn't. They still can.
It's no different than the US vs. Canada; the US (even now) could defeat Canada essentially instantly if they want to.
Without using nukes of course.
What caught some people off guard (including me) is that it is the right answer to the wrong question.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 8 2022 16:37 utc | 3
@GoFast they were never going for lightning shock and awe; this wasnt going to be georgia; ukraine has been fighting this war full spectrum, russia has been fighting this war with a limited methodical and incremental siege warfare approach and in doing so, some russian operational and logistical/production vulnerabilities have been exposed.
Will russia's partial mobilization change the battlefield? honestly at this point I have serious doubts, this is starting to look like iraq circa 2004-6 and that is only with very limited supply of arms to the ukies (no fighter planes, no thaad, etc) if you would have told me russia in the first 6 months of this war would have lost a Capital ship in the black sea I would not have believed you. How do you lose the flag ship of your black sea fleet and then not respond by carpet bombing the entire coast west of crimea all the way to odessa? the only reason has to be lack of capability or lack of will or both? extremely embarrassing! this would on the level of the bombing of the un compound in 2003 iraq.
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 16:43 utc | 4
@ GoFast | Nov 8 2022 16:27 utc | 2
don't be stupid... of course anyone can say anything and they did! who the fuck cares?? what a stupid post.. may as well hold posters at moa accountable for what they said - a waste of time.... your post is a waste of time too, but i wasted it, lol...
Posted by: james | Nov 8 2022 16:50 utc | 5
DailyJolt and GoFast, what's next, a caffeine laden canned drink?. Yes, Malofeev the monarch restoring businessman -let's call him the US way, I'm sure you do not call Gates or Bezos oligarchs- did say that in a rhetorical way back in February 2020, two years before the SMO, the main theme of the article was helping LDNR to survive the onslaught and denying that Russia was directly fighting their war. Here you have the original article which I venture you have not read, it will give you the necessary context.
Posted by: Paco | Nov 8 2022 17:00 utc | 6
Getting Closer
WOLFGANG STREECK
bevin posted this on a previous thread... i had to go to the sidecar tab and look for this post, as bevins link didn't work... if my link doesn't work, you can do the same if you are interested...
here is a small segment from the article..
"Frankfurt, Goethe once noted of his hometown, ‘is full of oddities’. The same can be said today of Berlin, and indeed Germany as a whole. Bizarre things are happening, with public consideration of them tightly managed by an alliance of the centrist parties and the media, and supported to an amazing extent by self-imposed censorship in civil society. Before one’s eyes, an apparently democratically governed mid-sized regional power is being turned, and is actively turning itself, into a transatlantic dependency of the Great American War Machines, from NATO to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Pentagon to the NSA, and the CIA to the National Security Council. When on 26 September the two Nord Stream pipelines were hit by a massive underwater attack, the powers that be tried for a few days to convince the German public that the perpetrator could only have been ‘Putin’, intending to demonstrate to the Germans that there would be no return to the good old gas days. It soon became clear, however, that this strained the credulity of even the most credulous of German Untertanen. Why should what is called ‘Putin’ have voluntarily deprived himself of the possibility, small as it might be, of luring Germany back into energy dependency, as soon as the Germans became unable to pay the staggering price of American Liquid Natural Gas? And why would he not have blown up the pipelines in Russian rather than international waters, the latter more heavily policed than any other maritime landscape except, perhaps, the Persian Gulf? Why risk a squadron of Russian shock troops, which would undoubtedly have been sizeable, being caught red-handed, triggering a direct confrontation with several NATO member states under Article 5?
Lacking even a remotely credible ‘narrative’ – the new word in elevated jargon for a story manufactured for a purpose – the matter was effectively dropped, after no more than a week. Two days after the explosion, a lone reporter for a local newspaper based at the entry to the Baltic Sea observed the USS Kearsarge, an ‘amphibious assault ship’ capable of transporting up to 2,000 soldiers, exit the Baltic west-bound, accompanied by two landing boats; a photograph of two of the three mighty ships made its way onto the internet. Nobody in German politics or the national media took any notice, certainly not publicly. By mid-October, Sweden, currently applying for NATO membership, announced that it will keep the results of its investigation of the event to itself; the security rating of its findings was too high ‘to share with other states like Germany’. Shortly thereafter, Denmark also withdrew from the joint investigation.
As for Germany, on 7 October the government had to answer a question from a Die Linke Bundestag member on what it knew of the causes and perpetrators of the pipeline attacks. Beyond stating that it considered them ‘acts of sabotage’, the government claimed to have no information, adding that it would likely not have any in the future either. Moreover, ‘after careful consideration, the Federal Government has come to the conclusion that further information cannot be given for reasons of public interest’ (in German, aus Gründen des Staatswohls, literally: for reasons of the welfare of the state, a concept apparently modelled on another neologism, Tierwohl, animal welfare, which in recent German legalese refers to what breeders of chickens and pigs must allow their animals so that their farming practices can count as ‘sustainable’). This, the answer continues, was because ‘the requested information is subject to the restrictions of the “Third-Party-Rule”, which concerns the internal exchange of information by the intelligence services’ and therefore ‘affects secrecy interests that require protection in such a way that the Staatswohl outweighs the parliamentary right to information, so that the right of MPs to ask questions must exceptionally take second place to the secrecy interest of the Federal Government’. To this writer’s knowledge, there has been no mention whatsoever of this exchange in the Staatswohl-oriented media."
Posted by: james | Nov 8 2022 17:00 utc | 7
from Stripes
A three-star general will lead a new Army headquarters in Germany that will include about 300 U.S. service members responsible for coordinating security assistance for Ukraine, a senior U.S. military official said. . .here
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 8 2022 17:06 utc | 8
russia should be fighting this war like the us zato ukies are fighting it,full spectrum and dirty, complete with killing civillians, civillian infrastructure, assassinations on russian soil(basically in moscow no less), etc.
where is the vaunted cyber force of the russian military? where are the top level assassinations by bomb, crew or poison of top level ukies?
was that all marketing hype of us .gov to justify military budgets and russia played along?
or are those real russian capabilities we havent seen yet? where are they?
a war happened and only half of the russian military showed up to fight seige warfare like its 1949....
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 17:10 utc | 9
re: alleged arms from North Korea
from Army Times
Last week, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby accused North Korea of covertly supplying a “significant number” of the ammunitions to Russia. He said the United States believes North Korea was trying to obscure the transfer route by making it appear the weapons were being sent to countries in the Middle East or North Africa.
“We regard such moves of the U.S. as part of its hostile attempt to tarnish the image of [North Korea] in the international arena,” an unidentified vice director at the ministry’s military foreign affairs office said in a statement carried by state media. “We once again make clear that we have never had ‘arms dealings’ with Russia and that we have no plan to do so in the future,” the vice director said.. . .here
It's simple, just set up a 'middleman' to avoid a direct DPRK-Russia connection.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 8 2022 17:15 utc | 10
Re: the Moskva ship
Can someone please tell me how it got sunk, and how come it didn’t shoot down incoming missiles ?
Wasn’t it equipped for that ? What the hell happened ?
Posted by: Featherless | Nov 8 2022 17:26 utc | 11
Featherless@11
No definitive answer. No one really knows.
Posted by: morongobill | Nov 8 2022 17:39 utc | 12
Here we go again with the ole ‘Russia shoulda, and coulda and woulda’ trope. Thankfully James has already dealt with that so I’ll move on. The PR firms that were hired to bolster the NATO war effort in Ukraine have done a fantastic job keeping hope alive in the minds of all the numptys that support it. I’ve long since given up trying to educate and inform them, and its now just a matter of time before they get let down, distracted and move on to support the next Current Thing. #WeCanDoThis!
What about the poor sods on the ground? Territorial Defense forced prodded into battle of trench warfare. StarLink winking out due to “insufficient funds” via the UK? Muddy banzai charges being turn back by clusters of artillery. Happy Election Day USA. As per the SouthPark episode on representative democracy: you’ve been given the right to choose between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. All kidding aside, things are about to amp up in very real ways across the board. First off, Ukraine is about to become the bronzed albatross chained to the neck of the EU. After greedily slurping up money weapons and “volunteers” it will now bless it sponsors with hundreds of thousands of gracious refugees. All this with a backdrop of post industrial collapse, cold hunger, and a winter of discontent.
Yet the cheerleaders still howl, and the slanderous presstitutes continue their smear campaign. And for what? All of them will be on the receiving end of the glorious 4th Industrial Revolution. When things get increasingly desperate, this attitude will disappear in a poof of smugness. But by all means keep it up, I’m sure there is a payday right over the next hill. Oh to see the expressions on their faces when they realize that nobody is coming to save them. Their handlers left the building weeks ago, made a bee-line for their luxury bunkers, leaving their minions to run the illusion for just a little while longer. Alas, the power goes out, the curtain is torn down and the brick wall in the back of the studios is plain to see.
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 17:43 utc | 13
james@7
Sorry about the link. Sidecar has some good stuff- the Nightwatchman's Bludgeon for example. I find Wolfgang Streeck is always good. He has the EU summed up very well.
I was going to quote that excerpt too. I'm glad you did.
Others: follow James's link. It really is a good article.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 8 2022 17:50 utc | 14
Posted by: jay co | Nov 8 2022 15:28 utc | 1
whenever i see that weaselly little pipsqueak sullivan i feel violent; that such an obvious fucktard loser who clearly got his ass beat down twice a week in high school, is in control of my life and millions of others lives lights a fire up my ass to no end.
You should learn to appreciate... FREEDOM, DEMOCRACY and blah, blah and blah. .. we were taught since childhood in school and at home....
Last weekend ZH posted Chrystia Freeland will lead NATO as Sec General.... finally we will have a hardline and granddaughter of a NAZI leading NATO...
Posted by: JC | Nov 8 2022 17:59 utc | 15
@Bevin & James re: Germany Wake-Up.
At some point there has got to be some sort of critical mass of Germans collectively saying WTF in regard to the US sponsored sabotage of NordStream?
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 18:02 utc | 16
Zelensky extends martial law for another 90 days and ups the general mobilisation. Ukranians will be mobilising themselves over the nearest border... if they can.
https://twitter.com/SprinterMonitor/status/1590039503124955136
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 8 2022 18:05 utc | 17
🏳️🌈🇺🇦🇷🇺❗️NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that the alliance does not seek to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine on Russian terms:“If Ukraine goes along with Russian demands and accepts the fact that Russia has invaded, seized territories, there is a risk of continued attacks ... This will be a disaster for Ukraine, but also a danger for all of us, since this would send a signal that the use of force allows you to achieve political goals to gain control over neighboring countries"
https://t.me/intelslava/40739
Posted by: Down South | Nov 8 2022 18:09 utc | 18
@Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 17:10 utc | 9
This is a global war, not just between the Ukraine and Russia, with the latter having to manage its relationships and image with the rest of the world (RoW) outside Europe that has either refused to sanction it or is tacitly/actively supporting it. The West is pouring on pressure on the RoW to stop supporting Russia, and all they need is some real evidence of Russia carpet bombing towns and killing 1,000's and 1,000's of civilians to turn some of these states around. Even Western public opinion is turning against arming and supporting Ukraine, again such real evidence may help solve that problem for Western elites. That is why Putin is playing within real legal limits (as against the spurious Western "rules based order").
When you are winning the trick is not to do anything stupid, and all the Ukie provocations are being tried to get Putin to do something stupid. Putin is winning, and with 300,000+ extra troops (making 450,000 - 500,000+ in total) and the Ukie electric grid wiped out the next Russian offensive will fundamentally change the facts on the ground. The Ukies are down to perhaps 350,000 troops, many of which are new conscripts with little training and with a huge loss of experienced NCOs - the backbone of any army. Hence the increasing numbers of foreign "mercenaries" to fill the gaps. The Ukie supply depots are being destroyed by the Russians, and their vehicles destroyed on the ground whilst their numbers are being continuously ground down. And Russia has increasing artillery and air supremacy. In addition, more and more Ukie reserves are being sucked into battles around Bakhmut, Kherson etc. in the south - leaving huge little protected gaps in other areas.
If nothing fundamental has changed by February I will also throw my hands up and scream "WTF Russia?" By then Europe may have survived the heating season, but be looking at an horrific cost of probably only partially refilling their storage tanks for winter 2023, and with oil prices even higher if they implement the hair-brained "oil price cap" scheme. Europe and the US will also be in a significant recession (the Uk will be the worst with pro-cyclical tax raises and government austerity). Add in significant Russian gains and the will of the Western elites may be running straight into the reality of their population's resistance.
Patience is a virtue that Russia, China and Iran have and the Western elites do not, and Zelensky cannot afford. A possible Republican "wave" today may also change things more than we currently think, Biden may be gone very quickly together with many of the "Pale of Settlement/Ukraine" descendent nutters. And possibly the AG after the misuse of the legal system in the pat few months.
Criticism of Russian strategies in Ukraine continues to surprise me. The reason is surely obvious why they acted with restraint, many of those living in Ukraine, not just in the Donbas or the south, are either ethnic Russian or have well developed historical associations with Russia. There was no gain to annihilating those who maybe your own kith and kin. Could Russia do what the west typically does when it fights, bomb everything in sight, yes, but they are unlikely to adopt such tactics if they were fellow Americans.
Posted by: Barry Sheridan | Nov 8 2022 18:20 utc | 20
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 18:02 utc | 16
It will soon be a federal crime to deny that it was the Russians who blew up the pipeline.
Posted by: bottle | Nov 8 2022 18:25 utc | 21
People who disagree should post evidence that Russian leadership believed the war in Ukraine would be a brutal operation that lasted over six months.
Posted by: GoFast | Nov 8 2022 16:27 utc | 2
Typical american black and white thinking. Why can't the Russian leadership have thought, we need to do this even though there is no guarantee of the outcome, we don't know how long it takes and what it will cost, and even though no plan survives first contact? Maybe, unlike your fantasies, they planned for any contingency all the way from immediate Kiev surrender to a twenty-year drudge of color revolution attempts and terrorism?
Not everything can be dumbed down into one liner slogans and two-option choices, and outside the USA (= unremarkable satanists of america) no one even tries to do so.
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 8 2022 18:29 utc | 22
jayco | Nov 8 2022 17:10 utc | 9
Russia doesn't care what you think because your values are a mental illness. Fuck back off to your video games, groyper.
Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Nov 8 2022 18:30 utc | 23
@2
Russia said UKRAINE Russia did not say NATO (30+ countries). Russia took Ukraine the first week IMO...
Ask you a question: What would the ukraine have been without nato help..??
Russia is not fighting the Ukrainian army the Ukrainian army ended a long time ago Russia is fighting the wester collective (30+ countries) with mercenaires and some Ukrainian hands...
Posted by: noname | Nov 8 2022 18:34 utc | 25
@ Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 18:02 utc | 16
...some sort of critical mass of Germans collectively saying WTF...
Not happening under those circumstances. Just got back from Germany, talked to a lot of well-educated people. I am sad and feel hopeless for the friends there.
Totally subdued volk, kept in the dark by manipulative media, that resemble of trashy British yellow print (Sun, Telegraph etc.).
There, the critical mass is a long way to be created let alone of any use.
Russia is bad and Putin is bad, and he did it, even if he didn't, he did it - is a general position of more than 80% of the people.
My East German friends are different and can think rather straight and rationale is 'go Russia go', but totally not interested in organizing anything public or doing anything about any 'uprising'.
What I have noticed is that people are laughing less, most seem bitter, in a public transport most of the passengers look worried, and somehow a general atmosphere doesn't feel right.
Nah, forget it Germany is occupied.
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 8 2022 18:35 utc | 26
GoFast@2...the Ukraine was defeated, NATO wasn't, one country took a few weeks, then a coalition of fools piled in with encouragement, at the rate Russia is moving, slowly, it grinds through foreign armour and manpower, such a sweet delicate balance, a sight to behold. The SMO is a precedent, future SMO timelines will be judged against the world's first SMO currently underway.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Nov 8 2022 18:38 utc | 27
[3] "There is no doubt Russia could have defeated Ukraine essentially instantly"
If the translation is right, the advance is 3 cm a day.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1589975597769687042
Perhaps someone else can translate?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 8 2022 18:39 utc | 28
russia should be fighting this war like the us zato ukies are fighting it,full spectrum and dirty, complete with killing civillians,
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 17:10 utc | 9
Russians are not satanists, and many of them have friends or family in Ukraine.
No, Russia is doing fine. Once the US becomes less of a threat, no longer raping, poisoning and torturing entire countries all over the planet, the war tribunals can start. 95% of countries will have claims.
And once the protective "golem" is dead, the den of cockroaches infesting Palestine can be stomped out of existence.
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 8 2022 18:55 utc | 29
@Posted by: whirlX | Nov 8 2022 18:35 utc | 26
Give it a year when they will be facing most probably a much worse winter (El Nino instead of La Nina) with significantly less gas storage (no Russian gas to help fill it up) with significantly higher energy prices and the economy in the shitter while chunks of Ukraine keep disappearing into a Russia which is continuing to grow and enjoying cheap energy (just like China, India, Turkey ...). It only takes a spark for a subjugated people to lose patience and turn on illegitimate rulers.
Otherwise there will just be a long decline of Europe and the UK through the 2030s, a bronze medal for the Russians instead of a gold (Russia-Europe cooperation), or silver (a Europe refusing to be the US's total vassal and generally independent of the US and Russia). That will be very sad for the average European. When I look at my own UK, with austerity about to be loaded onto more than a decade of austerity that stripped the public sector to the bone, with the energy bill subsidies probably disappearing in April, and stealth higher taxes, it will be a mean 2030s to live through. Oh, and of course the ongoing economic shit-show that is Brexit. One hope is that Sunack may use the excuse of austerity to cut back support for Ukie immigrants and the Ukie military.
As I wrote yesterday, there's clearly an attempt to erase NATO's history since 1989, all of which provides the underlying context for today's need to liberate people from NATO's totalitarian grip which is enabled by the EU's existence. Few realize/understand that NATO, EU and other supposedly international institutions are tools of the Outlaw US Empire to attain Global Dominance and hegemony over ALL, as are the philosophy and machinations known as Neoliberalism, which as a process has evolved to where it now is over the past 140 years.
No Western figure acknowledges what's occurred since 1989. Instead, their history begins on 24 February and not a day earlier. There's no attempt whatsoever to rebut Russia's legal grounds for its military technical operation; it's as if Russia's security demands issued last December never happened, nor did NATO at anytime break the four OSCE treaties guaranteeing Indivisible Security--apparently, they never existed either. In many respects, every word emanating from the West is absurd as a make-believe history is being forced upon humanity, yet most of humanity sees it as false, although some officials are still cowed by it and are thus too timid in rebutting it as we see from people in Indonesia as the G20 approaches.
As reported by RT, China has supposedly canceled a recorded message by the European Council President that was to propagandize those attending China's International Import Expo with exactly that type of message casting Russia as aggressor when it's actually the defender. IMO, it's that last very major point that's missed by the vast majority--Russia is the defender of Ukrainians and Russians from the Genocide that was waged on them by NATO. The actual reasons for Russia's intervention in Ukraine as before with Syria are never truthfully offered by any Western politico or media, while every falsehood that can be devised is implemented in defense of the actual aggressor, which is the Outlaw US Empire.
Thus, we can see why the Empire is not only incapable of agreement. To even speak of or acknowledge the truth of events is to confess its guilt in them. Thus Woke, no part of the Truth can be allowed to exist; only the Empire's Narrative is valid. And all that constitutes the vast impasse/chasm that exists between the West and the rest of humanity. The West must continue the BigLie at all costs for it cannot exist without it. IMO, it perplexes Russia, China and other nations as to why the Outlaw US Empire persists in its Lies as they only serve to widen the chasm. I'm reminded of serial prevaricators who will continue to tell their lies even after they land in prison for life--they cannot face the horror of being honest with themselves and pop the imaginary balloon their ego has inflated. In other words as others have noted, they are diseased--sick in the mind--yet their pathology threatens humanity, not just themselves.
It's for the many reasons contained in the above that Putin has pointed out on more than six occasions since 24 February that IMO will cause him to decline to appear in Bali. Those nations Russia is friendly with will know its position on the G20's discussion topics, and Russia will likely be represented by its ambassador to Indonesia. I'd very much like to hear the arguments in the Kremlin over this subject to better hone my understanding of Russia's collective mind. Perhaps a hint will be provided by Zakharova in her weekly briefing. Fundamentally, however, the Truth must be upheld, and the West's Master be held accountable.
@whirlX. Thank you for the update. I’m utterly baffled but then I live in the USA so such willful ignorance is not hard to fathom.
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 19:07 utc | 32
I think it was during his first SMO speech around Feb 24 that Putin addressed the world during one section saying that they have prepared for all eventualities. Quite possibly a settlement could have been reached in Istanbul. If honored by the West (unlikely but possible) that could have been it. Didn't work. Onto the next scenario...
This will continue until either Ukraine operates as an independent polity free from all NATO inputs or Ukraine as such is no more. And even in the latter case that may or may not be the end of it. Most likely the end of the petrodollar is a minimum way point until which point the West will refuse to leverage that power into preventing a Eurasian Civilization birthing.
Until which point the West will refuse to leverage that power into preventing a Eurasian Civilization birthing.
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 8 2022 19:15 utc |
Will refuse to CEASE leveraging...
Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 8 2022 19:17 utc | 34
Ultimately, people vote with their feet.
Examples are legion, ranging from population levels increasing in Texas & Florida, to millions of illegals crossing the southern border, and of course Ukraine refugees in EU.
But the real tell will be from the professional classes, including engineers and technicians following capital investment and infrastructure projects.
If they are prevented or blocked from working in Russia directly, then the obvious hotspots will be pleasant regional satellites.
By this I mean Turkey. If there was ever more of a potentional slam dunk opportunity, it's going to be gangbusters (probably already is from people who have already left thinking theyll just be wintering over) in the nicer coastal zones.
One could follow exchange rates and other econ stats, but the leading edge will be YT, whether it's realtors or more likely, vloggers covering the emerging phenomenon of Germans everywhere in certain places.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 8 2022 19:22 utc | 35
@Roger roger that! (sorry I coudlnt help it) thanks for the explanation, I agree and your points are valid. I guess visavis the G20 russia is also involved with image shaping aka marketing "see we are not like them" and that is all fine and good, but this is war, marketing and image production ultimately mean little in war and are not sustainable in the medium to long term. I also dont really buy the argument that russia didnt want to kill ethnic russians. Ok but they would presumably kill ethnic russians if there was an existential threat to russia? so it is not really about saving ethnic russian lives as it is about red lines. You are telling me that if russia was clearly losing this war they wouldnt kill massive ukies of russian descent? That argument I find not to be credible given elites will elite and save themselves first, if that means killing cousin valery in odessa, so be it.
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 19:23 utc | 36
@ Jusses | Nov 8 2022 18:29 utc | 22
This.
Gostomel was a pretty ballsy what the English call a "chancer":
If the 2014 Regime collapses or flees, well and good.
If neither, deny the airport until withdrawal and wreck on leaving.
Next step.
Posted by: John Kennard | Nov 8 2022 19:25 utc | 37
Why doesn’t RF use napalm? Seems to be perfect for this trench warfare, and fuel unlimited. I don’t see anything prohibiting it’s use…
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 19:33 utc | 38
and with 300,000+ extra troops
Posted by: Roger | Nov 8 2022 18:12 utc | 19
No. Putin said 50k are "working" in Ukr now. Since the beginning of mobilization they clearly said only a part of the mobilized will be sent to Ukr. I highly doubt even the 50k number but we can use that since the source is Putin. If you subtract the total deaths (Russia, including Chechens, Wagner and Donbass militia) you will probably end with max 30-35k for the whole front line. Those people will have a very difficult time keeping positions. And without lots of drones and strikes on supply lines, railways, highways, fuel storage and the power grid (again and better this time) you can forget about reaching Donbass borders next year.
After these months it's clear their entire strategy was based on the enemy surrendering, no second plan. But Ukr/nato didn't surrender and went into suicide mode and terrorism using infinite weapons and money. They can continue to do that for decades using mercenaries, as long as the fake government and everything I've mentioned above remain intact. The EU bases for "training" will actually collect all psychopaths on the planet. After Sweden/Finland join nato the flow of terrorists will greatly increase in Russia.
Posted by: rk | Nov 8 2022 19:37 utc | 39
Our current proxy war against Russia is coming to and end, or at least being put on hold. We have run out of brainwashed Ukroids to throw at the Russians. China was named in Biden's strategic posture review as the target nation of choice. Detente, Minsk three whatever, US wants to shut down its war in Ukraine. A new Ukraine president will be required for 'negotiations' but Zed's death at the hands of the evil Ruskies will have much propaganda value.
This coming war against China will be a major wake up call for the majority of Australians living within the matrix of the narrative though even then many will remain within the matrix. Like goldfish in a bowl.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 8 2022 19:40 utc | 40
Russian military doctrine is written by Sun Trudeau. If you kill your enemy, they win.
Posted by: experienced | Nov 8 2022 19:41 utc | 41
@RicK church brother! preach it!
@Roger pale of sttlement is donzo, europe owns all of it now, russia got the 2nd biggest proven gas/methane reserves in europe in the donbass, 1 trillion cubic meters of natgas (2nd only norway's svalbard in proven gas reserves), they got the coal, they got the shale oil and gas in LNR, they also got all the coastal oil offshore out to 12 miles in the black sea from the russian border to the western border of the crimea. russia got more in value than the west took away with stealing russian dollar reserves $460 billion and half dozen depreciating yachts and over valued villas, how many doelars or ounces of gold is a trillion cubic meters of natgas worth in 2023, 2024, 2025 ....>?
im pretty dumb but if europe thinks a price cap on russian energy is going to work theyre dumber than me! cant russia just not sell to the g7? and tell scholz an macron and whoever is at 10 downing next week to go fuck themselves? and fuck joe biden can fuck himself with pelosi's husband's DILDO HAMMER, bold corn pop brandon can hammer himself or have 'lil jake do it while "Doctor" jill watches.....jack!
ps: some republican critters of congress already are using coded language to say that under a gop house ukraine funding will 100% continue.
after the gop wins the house, they will stop using coded language and youll see kevin mcarthy talk about preserving democracy in europe and countering russian aggression and putler.
what im saying is vote red for sure but dont hold your breath things are gonna change (as we all know and many have said before, but bears repeating, lets just curb our enthusiasm a bit shall we, we are battered children of abusive divorced parents and we really dont know what the fuck is going on)
i would skullfuck nancy pelosi...but only if you paid me $5 bucks...in Shiba crypto
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 19:46 utc | 42
I really dont think that the entire Russian strategy was based on Ukrainian surrender. And no, they were not try to storm Kiev.
Do you really think there was “no backup plan”? It seems to me that there were stated goals and that the RF military did not actually broadcast their entire strategy for all these armchair ninnies to dissect. The SMO much like the the operation in Syria is a study in efficiency. What seems to be lost on the western MSM and the presstitutes is that Russia is doing things by the books. This is in stark contrast to NATO’s butchery in places like Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the like.
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 19:47 utc | 43
@ Posted by: Featherless | Nov 8 2022 17:26 utc | 11
No air defense system has a 100% shoot down rate. "The bomber will always get through." Or at least "a bomber" will.
Posted by: fnord | Nov 8 2022 19:47 utc | 44
Fundamentally, however, the Truth must be upheld, and the West's Master be held accountable.
Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 8 2022 19:00 utc | 31
---
Beautiful writer, yet you're like a guy commisterating over a bad breakup. The fellow youre talking with might imagine it's been a fairly recent event, possibly weeks or even months prior.
But what would his reaction be if it was actually 5, 10+ years earlier? Thats right, he'd sidle off the stool to get away and remind himself to avoid you if he ever came across you again.
Here's a bit of advice, which I'm sure you'll ignore, so it's really for the broader readership: life moves on.
Last century's debate over economic organization was conducted in an era of surplus. That is, a completely indulgent exercise in myopia that failed to consider much more significant global challenges lurking in the shadows ahead.
The current battle isn't just for bragging rights, the empire isnt using every technique and resource at its disposal simply to play king of the hill.
No, this is the real deal where the winner is allowed to drive agenda 2030 according to their terms, one which still only really allows a modicum of current lifestyle options.
The losers aren't just subjugated vassals, but rather the doomed steerage passengers who discovered there weren't any more lifeboats.
Life is interesting if one stays current, understands physics, observes politics, and awaits the coming mad dash for safety.
No one will have the time, patience or luxury of hearing complaints about the bad man out to get them; they know.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 8 2022 19:49 utc | 45
@RicK: Napalm is sticky and nasty…as such it is banned. The nearest equivalent would be the thermobaric munitions, such the TOS-1, which is being used to great effect.
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 19:50 utc | 46
Bottle21: You ARE kidding right?
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 18:31 utc | 24
A law is already on the books that makes it so as soon as it becomes the official position that Russia is the culprit. From then on you cannot question that fact.
Posted by: bottle | Nov 8 2022 19:52 utc | 47
https://www.vesti.ru/article/3032064 The new span of the Kerch bridge, Crimea, has successfully been installed. Cars and buses are already driving over it.
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Nov 8 2022 19:56 utc | 48
I saw a clip earlier on today of Russia using night vision, thermal imaging, technology to target and attack the Ukraine forces as they slept at night.
Their body heat made them identifiable.
Anyone else see it?
If so, was it genuine or was it just a piece of propaganda.
Posted by: Orchard1 | Nov 8 2022 20:11 utc | 49
@sippy the shot glass brother i got a decent joint in my left hand (some kinda og crossx) and a dram of laphroaig 12 in my right hand, surfing the inter-tubes, listening to the police (the band)...basically livin' the dream
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 20:21 utc | 50
@Oblomovka daydream I have no doubt russia will repair kirch bridge asap, slava rossiya!
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 20:23 utc | 51
If so, was it genuine or was it just a piece of propaganda.
Posted by: Orchard1 | Nov 8 2022 20:11 utc | 49
---
Genuine, common with spec ops.
Posted by: Nobody | Nov 8 2022 20:24 utc | 52
Nowdays its all about marketing.
RF performance in Ukraine is one of the most spectacular ANTI marketing i ve ever witnessed.
The future will show what will be the real consequences for Russia.
One can already say that russian military industry will face difficult times.
Hard to imagine that somebody wants to buy russian made weapons in future.
Not to mention relying on russian military support as an ally
Posted by: ratko.mladic | Nov 8 2022 20:24 utc | 53
Down South #18
"“If Ukraine goes along with Russian demands and accepts the fact that Russia has invaded, seized territories, there is a risk of continued attacks ... ".
Is this a further softening of the hard line concerning negotiations? Alexander Mercouris doesn't see an off-ramp; so to what end?
Posted by: Cyclops | Nov 8 2022 20:29 utc | 54
@ karlof1 | Nov 8 2022 19:00 utc | 31
No Western figure acknowledges what's occurred since 1989. Instead, their history begins on 24 February and not a day earlier
This enables Blinken to repeatedly, over and over, refer mistakenly to "Russia’s premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attack on Ukraine." . . .And if Russia's Lavrov has ever responded publicly to these repeated lies it has gone largely unnoticed.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 8 2022 20:35 utc | 55
blinken reminds me of Blix form that tom cruise 80s movie..
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 20:42 utc | 56
B9k9 | Nov 8 2022 19:49 utc | 45
It is about breaking people out of the narrative matrix. Many here though want Russia to be another knee jerk America. They want retribution like feuding hillbillies. Russia is about bringing peace not retribution.As to the timing of Russia's moves to face down the US, that has been fully dependent on the research, development, production and deployment of next gen strategic weapons system that commenced in 2002 when US pulled out of the ABM treaty. Putin does not go in early and try to bluff his way through. When he makes a move there is overwhelming force behind it.
Doing it this way, Russia pays a short term cost in some lives, but over the long term, in hindsight it will be seen that this approach has saved a huge number of lives that would otherwise have been lost.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 8 2022 20:50 utc | 57
reply to 54
I think it is glacial progress. Zelensky obeyed his masters and spoke about negotiation, after absurd demands are met. Slavyangrad claimed his aides are vastly more realistic.
If anyone doubts that EU nations are obsequious vassals, I would point out the complete lack of any call for a ceasefire and armistice by anyone in authority - to save thousands of Ukrainians from pointless slaughter.
When Monty Python did 'the Black Knight', it was hilarious. It isn't funny when applied to the course of a nation and massive destruction is the result. Losing 100K + soldiers and electricity, "tis but a scratch", apparently.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 8 2022 20:52 utc | 58
jayco @ 56
blinken reminds me of Blix form that tom cruise 80s movie..
Reminds me of an agent in the Matrix, as does Sullivan.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 8 2022 20:53 utc | 59
@James
7
Quote "landscape except, perhaps, the Persian Gulf? Why risk a squadron of Russian shock troops, which would undoubtedly have been sizeable, being caught red-handed, triggering a direct confrontation with several NATO member states under Article 5?"
Why are Pro russians so frightened of articke 5 ? Snglos will firecgly attack russian land mass when they ard convinced thst russia is a weakling and has no guts.which russia is showing by her poor performance.
Posted by: Sam | Nov 8 2022 20:53 utc | 60
On this election night I'd like to remind any whippersnappers here that it always gets worse under Republicans. Just because the Democrats are the quintessence of heinousness doesn't mean that the GOP taking power takes us to a lower degree of horror. Buckle up, maybe get in the crash position, the Overton window is about to be pushed off the cliff, God knows what's on the other side.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 8 2022 21:10 utc | 61
Humor in Russia is real news in the west.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-prigozhin-admits-interfering-u-115844580.html
Posted by: jo6pac | Nov 8 2022 21:12 utc | 62
OT but coming to a war theater near you tomorrow.
*
Bitcoin crash.
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1590051425606066183/photo/1
"COINBASE WEBSITE DOWN"
$SHIB $BTC $LTC $XLM $XRP $DOGE #Bitcoin $ETH all down.
*
Japan is dumping all it's US treasury holdings to support the Yen.
"JAPAN'S FOREIGN RESERVES FELL AGAIN IN OCTOBER AS TOKYO BATTLED TO PROP UP THE YEN BY DUMPING ITS HOLDINGS OF THE US DOLLAR"
****
Another open question; is Putin now turning to hardliners in the Russian establishment?
****
The AFU attacks Snihurivka/Snigirevka (Kherson Front)
"The source of the War Gonzo reports this".
Both sides have claimed a large convoy of the other side, were wiped out. (Probably a Grad salvo acc. to the Ukies) Heading south (Attacking Ukies or retreating Russians would both be going in the same oveall direction).
Posted by: Stonebird | Nov 8 2022 21:13 utc | 63
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 8 2022 19:49 utc | 45
“Beautiful writer, yet you're like a guy commisterating over a bad breakup. The fellow youre talking with might imagine it's been a fairly recent event, possibly weeks or even months prior.”
* * *
Apparently, you only found the time and patience to read the first paragraph and the very last sentence of the comments made by Karlof1. You clearly skipped everything else he wrote, and the consequence was the loquacious but entirely irrelevant observation, “life moves on”.
From a very limited “ADS perspective” you seem to hold that might be correct. However, I seriously question whether you even comprehend what he meant when he wrote, “No Western figure acknowledges what's occurred since 1989. Instead, their history begins on 24 February and not a day earlier.” Without that understanding, you have no idea what he’s even talking about.
Accordingly, here’s a bit of advice for you, which I’m sure you’ll ignore: Do your best to understand the past, in order to understand the present. Doing so ensures you that people don’t sidle off the stool next to yours, in order to get away, reminding themselves to avoid you if they ever come across you again.
Your might also look up the word loquacity.
Posted by: GreyRaven | Nov 8 2022 21:16 utc | 64
@GoFast #2
You don’t have anything better to do than scour the internet cherry picking contrarian opinions of random Russian nobodies and then rush over here to log in and trumpet your profound discoveries?
Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 8 2022 21:18 utc | 65
There are some incredibly delusional pro-nazi morons posting here now. aybe they are young and naive. Ukraine is drenched in blood and loses 300 to 500 fighters PER DAY while commanded by NATO and throwing everything they have at a partial Russian effort manned mostly by provincial forces. It's much like Nazi or Japanese claims of victory in 1944. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so damn tragic.
Go Team Go! Right?
Sickening.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 8 2022 21:20 utc | 66
Every time the russians complaining about the strong fortifications of Ukronazis.
After watching many videos from both conflict sides i could not find anything special about Ukis fortifications. Its classic military standard. Miles of ukro trenches ....... perfect coffins.....
I dont know for certain the number of Iraqi casualties in the trenches caused by B-52 raids.
In the Vietnam War, when the BUFF were on target (massed enemy troops, trenches,...) they pulverized their enemies. The old D models carried 108 Mk 82s so a cell of three could rain down a lot of firepower.
Carpet bombing is also a very effective psychological weapon, i remember that once lots of iraqis buried the few others (regulars)started to surrender a lot then followed.
Against the front line dug-in Ukro infantry, the TU 95 with loadouts FAB-250 x 24, FAB-500 x 12 and FAB-1500 x 3. would be much more successful because the Ukros are dug-in close together and are poorly trained reservists.
On the other hand cant remember now that Tu-95 was ever used on combat as bomber (Bear A), the others versions was specialized anti-ship missile carrier / Cruised Missile / EW / Maritime Patrol.
it might be worth trying even u ve thermobarics like ToS
Posted by: ratko.mladic | Nov 8 2022 21:21 utc | 67
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 8 2022 21:10 utc | 61
Both corporate fascist parties are globalist corporate puppets. They are simply owned by different oligarchs.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 8 2022 21:22 utc | 68
LightYearsFromHome, I get it that people think that the Blue Team is going to save them from the Red Team, but history proves that thinking wrong. I have been following elections and politics since the Carter Presidency. Very little changes in terms of foreign or domestic policy between administrations. Clinton continued most of Reagan's bad policies, Bush continued and accelerated most of Clinton's bad policies, Obama continued almost all of Bush's bad policies, Trump continued most of Obama's bad policies, and Biden has continued most of Trump's bad policies. In each case, things got worse over time, not better. In each case we were told that if so-and-so didn't win, we were all doomed.
No, it really doesn't matter who wins the very constrained elections today, we will still be in a proxy war with Russia, and that threatens the whole world. So I am not going to lose sleep tonight over who wins. I am only going to lose sleep over the doomsday clock, which Joe Biden has been really messing with.
Posted by: John R Moffett | Nov 8 2022 21:24 utc | 69
If the translation is right, the advance is 3 cm a day.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 8 2022 18:39 utc | 28
What part of “Demilitarization and denazification” as a clearly defined goal of the Russia SMO did you not understand? Putin never once mentioned territorial acquisition. You are projecting.
Posted by: nwwoods | Nov 8 2022 21:34 utc | 70
I don't know about Russian intelligence and how far they reach, but Iran for sure has extensive intelligence assets in UK. They could start doing all kinds of dirty de-stabilization that UK is doing in Iran. The unlimited and uncontrolled mass migration to the UK pretty much guarantees it.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 8 2022 21:38 utc | 71
Posted by: ratko.mladic | Nov 8 2022 21:21 utc | 67
In the Vietnam War, when the BUFF were on target (massed enemy troops, trenches,...) they pulverized their enemies. The old D models carried 108 Mk 82s so a cell of three could rain down a lot of firepower.
Carpet bombing is also a very effective psychological weapon, i remember that once lots of iraqis buried the few others (regulars)started to surrender a lot then followed.
Those wars turned out so well for the US. Failed strategies and gigantic, immoral wastes of money and lives.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 8 2022 21:39 utc | 72
@Posted by: rk | Nov 8 2022 19:37 utc | 39
What are you talking about? The Russians have raised the extra 300,000+ specifically for operations in Ukraine. Many of those raised may not go to Ukraine, because they will be replacing more experienced military personnel who will be going there instead. The Russian losses are low, as even Western observers have to acknowledge plus there are the LPR/DPR troops. 450,000 - 500,000 is about right, your numbers and your analysis is completely off.
#52 Nobody
If indeed genuine, the report went on to say that these were new weaponry or tactics from the Russian Forces, and, given the colder conditions now coming to the battleground at night, the targets were becoming much more visible with the available technology.
It spoke of AFU casualties of almost 2,000 last night alone.
This, if true, may have been the prompt for Zelensky's mention of ceasefire talks today.
Posted by: Orchard1 | Nov 8 2022 21:40 utc | 74
Posted by: ratko.mladic | Nov 8 2022 21:21 utc | 67
The bombs are there just waiting to be used. Identify coherent lines and run large scale bombing run, parallel over the defensive/front line to maximize hits and damage.
If anyone has watched maps in the Ugledar and Kherson region, you can easily notice that there are fields, between which there are strips of wooden areas. Very often UAF uses these wooden strips as some kind of defensive areas.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 8 2022 21:43 utc | 75
Excellent Christoforou update detailing the big profits that the US will make on LNG in the next 5-10+ years from selling to Europe, which will be paying much higher prices for its gas. US and Canadian domestic consumers will also pay more, but nowhere near what Europeans will be paying, as some more domestic production is siphoned off for exports. Also notes that there may be gas shortages in winter 2023 and maybe later years as well. I look forward to my cheaper vacations in Europe as it slowly de-industrializes and becomes poorer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wFf3vrVwAQ
China, India etc. will be happy to take the cheaper Russian gas and the industrial processes related to them. Also, Saudi Arabia joining BRICS, to add to a growing list of wannabe BRICS countries. Hungary also blocking EU-level machinations to further support Ukraine.
#46
I have seen the use of TOS. Looks more like July 4th fireworks than a destructive weapon. God, looks like you could walk around to avoid the sparks. And no or little fire combustion. Napalm was the shit and everything underneath got burnt to sh*t. Maybe I’m wrong but check Viet Nam film. And no more forest to hide in. Let’s roll!
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 21:58 utc | 77
Posted by: Chevrus | Nov 8 2022 19:50 utc | 46
Napalm may be banned …but so what? “Flower -petal “ mortars are also banned and they were used by the Ukros in Donbas cities to kill children picking them up. Shooting the testes off pows is also banned , but Ukies did it to Russian pows. Cluster ammunition is also banned but Israelis used it in Gaza , and were then ashamed and angry that a South African Jewish judge from the UN called them out on it in the Johnstone Report.
Banning means nothing. I agree with you, it should mean something , but sadly it doesn’t. It is what is done in reality that counts.
All those who responded to me Russian airforce activity? Thank you for doing so and yes many good points raised.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 8 2022 22:06 utc | 78
Seems I remember the MOAB (mother of all bombs) was used by US forces in Iraq. Basically a huge gas tank exploded mid air and lit with a match. Iraqis thought we went nuclear, that’s how big it was. Prolly cost 1000 bucks.
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 22:08 utc | 79
There are enough comments here to make an anthology of the Ukrainian frame of mind.
Posted by: Passerby | Nov 8 2022 22:09 utc | 80
Posted by: Sam | Nov 8 2022 20:53 utc | 60
There is too much made of Article 5 of the Nato charter. It means squat. I have actually read it as have many others. It is considerably weaker than the treaties that were relied on in both the Balkan and The Great War respectively for instance. There is NO LEGAL requirement for any Nato member to help any other in the event of war. All it asks is for a nation to TALK about what it should do to help , if at all, given it is constitutionally legal . A nation could decide to do absolutely nothing at all and be well within its rights.
You can be sure the US will try and badger other Nato members to help in case of war -a coalition of the Nato willing - but the law was written so loosely , I presume to allow the US to weasel out of helping anyone if it is a peer enemy.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 8 2022 22:23 utc | 81
Life is interesting if one stays current, understands physics, observes politics, and awaits the coming mad dash for safety.
Posted by: B9k9 | Nov 8 2022 19:49 utc | 45
You often encourage figuring out how best to play upcoming turbulence. Here's a tip from Zero Hedge. Title:
The Funeral Business Is Booming (And Not Because Of COVID)
"So, we wonder, is that the post-vaxx-new-normal-world-order trade: Short Life Insurers, Long Funeral Service Providers?"
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 8 2022 22:23 utc | 81
Nato article 5: "everyone is free to help the one supposedly under attack, in any way they see fit". That MSM tries to make something else of it is irrelevant - that's how the facts are.
It is similar as the banking system. It works as long as a given amount of critical mass do not withdraw their money from the banks in a panic, at the same time, or the whole "treaty" crashes and burns and becomes an emperor without clothes.
I would say that Nato is dead already due to trying to use the article 5 in Ukraine, which simply demolishes whatever legitimacy and purpose it had earlier. It doesn't mean that Poles will not go into Ukraine, it just means that the rest of the crowd will scatter away under various reasons and excuses.
The primary goal of Ukraine has already been achieved, mass collapse of EU-rope and wealth transfer to USA.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 8 2022 22:43 utc | 83
The new span of the Kerch bridge, Crimea, has successfully been installed. Cars and buses are already driving over it.
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Nov 8 2022 19:56 utc | 48
Yes a new span is in position but needs lowering. No the bridge is not in use. This is due to there being 3 spans needing replacing (the second due on 11/11) plus the other carriageway, that was in use by said cars and buses, is not in use as it is blocked by cranes and other construction traffic. Only the rail lines are in use today.
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 8 2022 22:58 utc | 84
Re: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 8 2022 21:10 utc | 61 - "I'd like to remind any whippersnappers here that it always gets worse under Republicans"
Disagreed. Look at 2016 vs 2020. When DJT was elected, I told horrified, politically-correct, well-adjusted, left-leaning friends (in Mtl, Canada - there's plenty of that kind here) that war in Ukr had been avoided with the electoral defeat of Hillary, and that this was the only real important point for folks outside the USA. Oh surprise, we got the war as soon as the Democrats got back in.
@ various about the slow pace of the operations in Ukr - a couple of speculative points that hopefully might be relevant in addition to the usual arguments about the objectives of the SMO not including territorial gains, the RF's desire to preserve manpower, and the effectivity of a strategy of attrition from letting UAF come to the contact line:
1) if you agree that Russia fights more than just Ukr, i.e. NATO and the USA behind it, then you probably also agree that RF have to consider all of Russia's perimeter as a potential combat zone, with reserves, equipment and logistics ready for all eventualities at the very least all along Russia's Western borders in Europe. I don't know anything about military matters, but in that context I would expect that Russian forces would have more difficulty concentrating forces to achieve victory in Ukr if borders along Poland and Finland for example must be reinforced at the same time.
2) As soon as RF achieves victory in Ukr, then Russia will probably have to face another open front elsewhere since the USA would still want to pin and weaken Russia in a long term conflict as per their stated objectives. Other fronts have been touted, Transnistria, Georgia, other parts of Central Asia... If I try to take a Russian perspective in that context, then I'm happy to continue fighting in Ukr rather than elsewhere with all of the unknowns and drawbacks of handing the initiative back to the USA by closing the Ukr theater. And if I'm happy to fight there, I don't want to win too soon, and I keep in mind that the USA has stated that they expect the window to confront China to close much sooner than expected, possibly as early as mid 2020s.
This is not to say that RF are all powerful and unbeatable, not at all. I'd be surprised if they didn't have big problems also, plenty of them mentioned often, i.e. slow reactivity, over-centralisation of some processes, corruption, lack of resources in some areas (drones at the beginning of the conflict for example), some startling intelligence failures (Helmer had a good one about this not too long ago),...
Posted by: htyul | Nov 8 2022 23:00 utc | 85
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 21:58 utc | 77
You're a moron. THIS is TOS
Don't know what the hell you've been looking at. Do those explosions look like twinkling lights to you?
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 8 2022 23:09 utc | 86
Big Anthill conquered!
The Donetsk airport has been liberated for the 100th time. This time for real! The six o'clock news on Channel One Russia had some story about a geographic feature to the north of the runway of the Donetsk airport. Evidently it is called "Big Anthill". It is a landfill hill just north of the western end of the runway, with a dominating view over the whole airport. Google Maps shows that it is full of Ukrainian trenches.
WarGonzo has two videos of the hoisting of the Sparta Battalion flag on top of the hill.
🇷🇺 The flag of Russian Spartans on the former fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "big anthill" near the Donetsk airport.
Actually the Anthill may have been taken several weeks ago. There are no signs of fresh battles. Two weeks ago Sparta Battalion posted videos of their BMPs driving right past the hill all the way to Vodyane on the northern side of the Donetsk Ring Road.
So why was the hill in the TV news today? My Russian is not good enough to follow what was said on the news. Maybe the hill had been recaptured by the Ukrainians for the 50th time and was again liberated.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 8 2022 23:13 utc | 87
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 21:58 utc | 77
One TOS salvo can suck ones lungs and organs out, in more or less within a 4 square kilometer area. Azovstal was a pretty good example, with all the cracks and crevices in concrete structures, it will still work pretty well.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 8 2022 23:15 utc | 88
Posted by: RicK | Nov 8 2022 22:08 utc | 79
Another moronic statement. Try $170,000 - and the development costs aren't included and range from $16 million to $400 million for 20 bombs.
Here's how much the 'mother of all bombs' the US just dropped on ISIS in Afghanistan actually cost
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-moab-bomb-cost-mother-of-all-bombs-2017-4
If you're completely ignorant, STFU.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 8 2022 23:15 utc | 89
[43] And no, they were not try to storm Kiev.
The Russians got to the zoo inside the city of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497385748680556548
Given that it seems they did try to storm Kyiv.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 8 2022 23:16 utc | 90
I presume to allow the US to weasel out of helping anyone if it is a peer enemy.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 8 2022 22:23 utc | 81
Correct, without that get-out there was no way that Congress was going to accept an agreement that took the US to war without its say so or say no.
Posted by: JohninMK | Nov 8 2022 23:16 utc | 91
[70] "Putin never once mentioned territorial acquisition"
Didn't the Russians just annex four oblasts? Isn't that territorial acquisition? Aren't the Russians trying to projecting their control over the rest the territory they annexed? Or are you talking about another war in a parallel universe?
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 8 2022 23:20 utc | 92
[43] And no, they were not try to storm Kiev.
The Russians got to the zoo inside the city of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497385748680556548
Given that it seems they did try to storm Kyiv.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 8 2022 23:16 utc | 90
If they wanted to storm Kiev, they would have done so.
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 8 2022 23:40 utc | 93
"Didn't the Russians just annex four oblasts?"Nope. Parts of Ukraine decided to become parts of Russia according to UN rules (despite how little the UN general secretary etc. may like it), and more will follow. That's not "annex" which is MSM-speak used in US/NATO/EU propaganda.
And of course there is the additional distinctions between Russia not wanting more territory, and Russia not aiming for more territory, and Russia getting more territory.
So now we all know both this and more :)
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 8 2022 23:54 utc | 94
@john r moffett #69
Thanks for this comment
It is very much the same here in France
Chirac although popular continued most of Mitterrand's bad policies. Then came Sarkozy and he buried what was left of De Gaulle's legacy. He was followed by Hollande who continued the bad policies of his predecessors only making them worse. Now with Macron we have sunk half into the abyss of blind otanism and uninhibited corruption and cronyism. All this happened in bipartisan fashion as a way to fool the people.
Posted by: lahire | Nov 8 2022 23:59 utc | 95
I was shocked today. During my commute I listen to public radio, occasionally yelling often lamenting the sad state of the coverage of all things, particularly the conflict in the Ukraine. Today, election day, there was a story that highlighted the Disdain of the Italian public for Military support of the Ukraine while emphasizing a strong humanitarian sentiment about supporting Ukrainians among Italians. On the same commute an empathetic angle to an introduction to a book about V Putin. The coverage and commentary was noticeably less vitriolic about Russia and more resigned about the situation. Or so it seemed. I do wonder if I will continue to notice a change post election. It will be interesting to see how much lip service the newly in the majority Repubs will give to seeking a resolution to the conflict. Obviously, it will all be for show. The US is a single party political system. That party being the war party.
Posted by: Jimmyjames | Nov 8 2022 23:59 utc | 96
Heh "general secretary" should be "secretary general" ..or should it when acting as a US stooge? :P
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 9 2022 0:05 utc | 97
Ratko (67),
Here are the two major flaws in your arguments: 1) unlike the Iraqis in the desert and even the Vietnamese in the countryside, the Ukrainians are holed up in cities and hiding in forests; bombers are much less effective in these situations (as attested to the fact that Serbia lost almost none of its forested army during the NATO Kosovo bombings but gave in only because its industrial and communications and transportation infrastructu? (You forget the US lost almost 4000 fixed-wing aircraft in Vietnam and had almost 3000 pilots taken prisoner by North Vietnam). To all posters on this site, troll and nontroll alike, let it be said once and for all--RUSSIA IS FIGHTING A WAR OF ATTRITION BY DESIGN and it will take whatever time required to destroy the Ukrainian military COMPLETELY and destroy European unity COMPLETELY. Why bother to even post? Let's all just sit back and let it unfold!
Posted by: FHTEX | Nov 9 2022 0:05 utc | 98
Don Bacon @55--
Lavrov has refuted the many lies so many times he can do it in his sleep.
GreyRaven @64--
Nice to read your writing again. And thanks for your clarifying reply and excellent word choice.
Bill Smith @92--
The OP is correct. There was never any mention of territorial acquisition, but that can't be assumed to mean there wouldn't be any as you have done. What was stated was the Donbas oblasts would be "liberated" to the extent of their boundaries, which at the time did mean the acquisition of territory. The further need to denazify Ukraine has led to the further need to liberate the portions of historical Russia that were ceded to form the Ukraine SSR, which no one in the West at the time objected to, although many Russians did but were ignored as Putin has noted on several occasions. Many have said Ukraine was an "artificial" creation, and that's true to an extent. Russia gave it life and now it's altering its creation, or rather NATO's forcing Russia to do that.
I haven't suggested Caitlin Johnstone in several months, but her effort picked up by SCF is quite worthy so I'm linking her URL not SCF's so all can read "Let’s Be Clear: If WW3 Happens It Will Be The Result Of Choices Made By The US Empire":
"So let’s get real clear about this here and now: if there is a hot war between the US and a major power, it will not be because that war was 'stumbled into'. It will not be like an earthquake or other natural disaster. It will not be something that happens to or is inflicted upon the US empire while it just passively stands there in Bambi-eyed innocence.
"It will be the result of specific choices made by the managers of empire. It will be the result of the US choosing escalation over de-escalation, brinkmanship over detente — not just once but over and over again, while declining off-ramp after off-ramp. It will be the result of real material decisions made by real material people who live in real material houses while collecting real material paychecks to make the choices they are making."
It's an important read; please do so!!
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whenever i see that weaselly little pipsqueak sullivan i feel violent; that such an obvious fucktard loser who clearly got his ass beat down twice a week in high school, is in control of my life and millions of others lives lights a fire up my ass to no end.
its all about marketing, theyre going after Prigozhin almost as hard as putler. When you see ads on tee vee you know theyre desperate to sell you shit, if they were already selling the shit they wouldnt put ad money to try to sell you the said shit. marketing is desperation.
Posted by: jayco | Nov 8 2022 15:28 utc | 1