Ukraine - No Way To Peace Without Further War
A week ago I welcomed the talks between CIA director Bill Burns and the director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin but was skeptical of any outcome:
There will be no ceasefire now but the talks are good anyway. Both sides should do there best to keep them going.Russia has asked for a lot: a pullback of NATO to its 1997 position, four parts of Ukraine to become parts of Russia, a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. The U.S. is certainly not willing to commit to those steps - at least not yet.
It will need time and many more talks for the U.S. to come to its senses and to make the necessary concessions to end the conflict.
It will also require the defeat of the Ukrainian military, and anyone who joins it, on the battle field. Russia can do that if it concentrates on that effort.
Since then Russia released another salvo of missiles on the electricity network of Ukraine. This confirmed that the talks were not moving in a positive direction.
Now Yves Smith and Gilbert Doctorow name additional handicaps to the necessary compromises that could end the war.
Smith starts be examining the recent utterances from the U.S. side. There is no sign in them that anyone within the Biden administration is seeking some way towards peace. General Milley, who went public with talk suggestion after he had lost the internal discussion, was in fact whistled back:
Some of the close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been talking up the prospects of peace talks. As we’ll discuss shortly, your humble blogger thinks this view is not currently well aligned with reality. Yes, things look to have thawed to the point that the US has backed off of worst-than-the-darkest-days-of-cold-war non-communication with Russia. But while thawing from close to absolute zero to a mere deep freeze is technically warming, it’s still awfully frigid. The two sides have zero bargaining overlap in their positions, which means no basis for discussions.
Another problem with talks is that there is no one to talk to. The Ukrainian comedian Zelensky is not in a position where he can give up and stay alive:
And one of the biggest impediments to any settlement, other than Russia eventually dictating terms, is the leader the collective West has put on a pedestal: Zelensky, with the additional baggage of his Banderite inner circle.
Smith affirmatively quotes the former Russian president Medvedev who had explained the issue:
Vice Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, in a recent Telegram comment summarized in TASS, correctly depicted how Zelensky is boxed in:
Nevertheless, “Zelensky does not want any negotiations for quite obvious selfish reasons. Moreover, they [negotiations] are very dangerous for him,” Medvedev continued.
“After all, unless he acknowledges the realities of Ukraine’s break-up, it makes no sense to sit down at the [negotiating] table. Once he admits it, he will be bumped off by his own nationalists who are connected with the army top brass, and of whom he is scared out of his wits,” Medvedev said, describing the situation by the chess term ‘Zugzwang’ (in which each move of a player will worsen his/her position).
This scenario also underscores the mess the West is in if it were actually to get serious about wanting to negotiate (per above, my read on the rash of news is they amount to a combination of optics management plus some personal jockeying; there’s no sign Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, or Austin have changed position), they can’t maneuver around the neo-Nazi infestation the US bred. Zelensky will have to resist any peace overtures. If he were killed, the neo-Nazis would blame it on Russia and use it as a pretext for even more radical positions. After all, how much would it cost the US to provide intel and other support for terrorism?
Over the last months Russia had made a number of statements that could be seen as requests for talks:
In the last month, the volley of calls for negotiation from Putin has intensified. On September 30, Putin called on Kiev “to return back to the negotiating table.” On October 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia "was willing to engage with the United States or with Turkey on ways to end the war." Two days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is “open to negotiations to achieve our objectives." On October 26, Putin sent a message to Zelensky through President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embalo of Guinea Bissau, saying that “He wishes and thinks that a direct dialogue should happen between your two countries.” On October 30, Lavrov said that Russia is “ready to listen to our Western colleagues if they make another request to organize a conversation" as long as Russia’s security needs were considered. And on November 1, Putin said that “necessary conditions” could arise that would be a catalyst to talks.
The phase of Russia seeking negotiations now seems to be over.
Gilbert Doctorow finds that Russia's society has moved on and that prominent politicians are following its lead:
The fact is that Russian society from top to bottom is very unhappy with the present state of the war – but their discontent is with what they see as the pusillanimity of their own government in not responding more resolutely to Ukrainian provocations in the form of continuing artillery strikes on the Kursk and Belgorod regions from the Kharkov oblast just across the border or through atrocities such as the just released video of the cold-blooded murder of Russian prisoners of war by gleeful Ukrainian soldiers. The withdrawal from the city of Kherson inflamed the passions of the Russian public who demand better explanations in their parliament and on their television than they have received so far.
The pressure on Mr. Putin is from his own patriotic supporters, and an untimely truce for negotiations right now could lead to civil disorder in Russia. This is not idle speculation: it was perfectly clear from the latest edition of yesterday’s talk show Sunday Evening with Vladimir Solovyov in which a deputy speaker of the Duma from the ruling party United Russia and a Duma committee chairman from the Communists took an active part, meaning that the nation’s elites are moving with the popular current against Defense Minister Shoigu if not against those still higher in the Kremlin.
As Yves Smith closes:
So I don’t see any alternative other than for Russia to continue on its current path of prostrating Ukraine. And I’m sure the Russians had worked that out a while back and see nothing that suggests it would make sense to change course.
I agree.
The senseless war will for now continue.
Meanwhile it is freezing here in north Germany which will likely have a very expensive winter.
Britain continues to buy Russian oil from third parties while the EU will receive its Russian gas through Azerbaijan. The prices per unit will be much higher than any direct imports from Russia would be. The price differences will enrich a number of middleman at the cost of British and European consumers.
One wonders how long European politicians will be able to justify that charade.
Posted by b on November 21, 2022 at 17:19 UTC | Permalink
next page »Given that the only path of renewal in this current historically downward (financialised) phase of capitalism is to subject Eurasia to balkanised exploitation—New World 2.0—Russia is in the biggest fight of its life. It can only end one of two ways. There's no negotiating your way out of history.
Posted by: Patroklos | Nov 21 2022 17:31 utc | 2
European politicians will justify anything they want as long as they want.
They support the Current Thing and the welfare of every respectable citizen is dependent on enthusiasm for supporting the Current Thing as well.
It's not like there are any Communist Parties proposing a different economic and social system with any type of independent media or public intellectuals. Brains are so rotted in Europe from screen abuse that even zombies wouldn't eat them.
As Borrell said, the war will be decided on the battlefield so Russia / Putin had better make that decision clear.
Interesting that 9 months on no-one actually knows what the objectives of the war are from the Russian side. Sorry, "SMO"
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 17:34 utc | 3
I suspect that the talks were just an attempt to delay a Russian winter offensive and give the UAF and NATO a breathing space to collect and produce more weapons; there was a lot of talk about a freeze. I doubt that Russia will fall for this obvious trick, but there is more to this than we mere mortals are allowed to see.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 17:39 utc | 4
Patroklos is correct. I would add that given the lack of trust toward the Collective West given their reneging on Minsk 2014, War is only option. Candidly, the best thing would be to follow the advice of the former Foreign Minister of Romania and partion the country once known as Ukraine.
https://en.rua.gr/2022/09/19/ex-minister-of-romania-called-for-the-partition-of-ukraine/
One universal trait of politicians is they can't admit error. This war on Russia was a mistake. Putin likely must succeed or die trying. What will follow will be must more hostile to the Collective West.
And it will be a cold winter in Europe.
Posted by: Beltway Bandit | Nov 21 2022 17:41 utc | 5
Perhaps an Ukrainian "Night of the long knives" against the Banderites.
After all US and UK have a lot of experience of running death squads but I'm not sure how far US DoD and UK MoD is infected with Banderites.
UK MoD is supplying refillable lighters to Ukrainian soldier engraved with the message: “Glory to Ukraine, Glory to the heroes.”. Nazis!
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Nov 21 2022 17:43 utc | 6
Interesting that 9 months on no-one actually knows what the objectives of the war are from the Russian side. Sorry, "SMO"
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 17:34 utc | 3
Please go back to Feb. 2022 and read Putin's speech about the SMO before making ridiculous statements. Also, you might try reading Putin's famous 2008 Bucharest speech as well.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 17:49 utc | 7
The way I see it is Russia has shown a lot of restraint. A reluctance to unleash it's military to annihilate Ukraine, like it's almost being dragged into doing this. Looking back on it no one will be able to seriously say Ukraine/NATO/DC/UK weren't given opportunities to stop what they were doing.
They are demonstrating a stark contrast to US "shock and awe" methods because no one wants a carbon copy of the US. This is being rejected by the world at large.
Posted by: chunga | Nov 21 2022 17:50 utc | 8
I think Garland Nixon put it brilliantly, after Michael Hudson wrote about it back in February: sacrificing Europe's economy and industrial capacity to give US a boost in the competition against China is the MAIN objective of all this process from US side.
Only after this objective has been thoroughly attained will there be openings for genuine negotiations - by then fully armed nazis will be blackmailing politicians all around Europe to avoid them (or pushing their own people into power)!
I'm just trying to figure out where I could run to with my wife and kids
Posted by: maciel | Nov 21 2022 17:50 utc | 9
Russia gets blamed for having poor propaganda and public relations. Most of that is true. I think Putin in playing it smart here though. He isn't playing to Western audiences. He is playing to Asia, Africa, and South America. He gets to come across as the reasonable one. I want to negotiate but they want war. This keeps his native population anxious for more aggressive action and he comes across as the adult at the table to the non Western world. I think this is on purpose. My understanding is Ukraine has lost far more troops and equipment than Russia has. There seems to be a belief this is a sign of weakness on Russia's part as they grind on in the Donbas while losing ground at Kherson and around Kharkiv but from a military standpoint Russia could continue at this pace for years. Can Ukraine and NATO really sustain these types of loses. The US would have to return to some type of military economy to do that. Russia seems to have prepared for this.
Posted by: goldhoarder | Nov 21 2022 17:50 utc | 10
"People with advantages are loathe to believe that they just happen to be people with avantages. The come readily to define themselves as inherently worthy of what they possess; they come to believe themselves 'naturally' elite; and, in fact to imagine their possessions and their privileges as natural extensions of their own elite selves."
C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite
Only the little people must suffer, because they are not worthy...
Posted by: donten | Nov 21 2022 17:55 utc | 11
I think it is getting obvious that even the US is starting to realize this isn't going to go the way they planned, no matter what they send to Ukraine. The US/NATO are losing patience with Zelensky and know they will eventually have to throw him under the bus. Zelensky knows it too, and may be looking for an exit strategy that involves a "visit" to some EU country where he can ask for asylum.
Posted by: John R Moffett | Nov 21 2022 17:55 utc | 12
A lot occurred intermediately after the last talk between US Russia security council chiefs. US is still making optical noises but that's about it. They must have studied Michael Jackson's moon walk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mn7RjsvRNMQ
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 21 2022 17:57 utc | 13
@7;
I am to "go back and read" some speech in order to understand what the war aims are?
"Denazification" and "Demilitarisation" are so vague as to be useless.
Does Russia mean to take more territory. Or not. Do they want have surrender terms. Anything. Nope, just buzzwords and the promise of some never-ending conflict because Putin wants to keep everyone guessing. Asinine
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 18:04 utc | 14
Mummer | Nov 21 2022 17:25 utc | 1
“Hey Peter, I can see my house from here.” - Jesus
Posted by: Hmpf | Nov 21 2022 18:08 utc | 15
If this war was purely a military conflict, peace might be able to be negotiated. But the fact that the west's ultimate goal is to plunder Russia (continuing what they did in the 1990's before Vladimir Putin) means that the octopus of international finance and corporate greed will not be satisfied with anything short of Russia's complete capitulation and balkanization. To these western looters, the loss of life in Ukraine is immaterial, the needs of their own people is immaterial, anyone's desire for peace is immaterial, the amount of money spent on Ukraine is immaterial. There are trillions at stake as well as world hegemony. Until the cost of continuing exceeds potential gains, I do not believe that any country will be ready to seek peace.
Posted by: Belle | Nov 21 2022 18:09 utc | 16
Posted by: goldhoarder | Nov 21 2022 17:50 utc | 10
"Can Ukraine and NATO really sustain these types of loses. The US would have to return to some type of military economy to do that. Russia seems to have prepared for this."
Really hard to say about US. Don't know about Ukraine, often people defend their freedom for quite a long time.
But the europeans, they have experience of long wars. Thirty years war isn't even that long by european standards. I'm betting Russians are ready to give up when there are no leaders left who miss the Soviet Union. Quite a long way to go, but especially EU countries that have border with Russia will do it, because there is NO choice.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 18:11 utc | 17
>>>>>: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 18:04 utc | 14
"Denazification" and "Demilitarisation" are so vague as to be useless.
Only because you want them to be.
Denazification is eradication of all Banderites from Ukrainian military and regime. Canada and US should accept them as refugees as they did after WW2 and after the CIA-sponsored insurrectionists withdrew from Ukraine after 300,000 people died.
Demilitarisation is liquidating Ukraine's ability and/or wish to wage war, similar to the Morgenthau Plan of WW2.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Nov 21 2022 18:13 utc | 18
"One wonders how long European politicians will be able to justify that charade."
Well, that's an easy one: they will stop when they hang from lampposts.
EU plebs should better understand it quickly, and act accordingly before the winter is over: European peoples have to terminate their governments, and possibly the bulk of their political lasse, and terminate them with extreme prejudice. But then, they're mostly a bunch of traitorous parasites to begin with.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Nov 21 2022 18:15 utc | 19
" ..Interesting that 9 months on no-one actually knows what the objectives of the war are from the Russian side. Sorry, "SMO"" moaobserver@3
The objectives have been spelled out often enough. Essentially they amount to Minsk plus denazification and demilitarisation. This means no NATO and lots of plebiscites. And plebiscites will likely mean significantly more places voting to join Russia (or just leave Ukraine) than we have seen so far.
NATO's mistake was to open a can of worms by ludicrously asserting that Ukraine was a nation like any other and that the tiny minority of fascist nationalists who got power through the coup constituted a natural ruling caste. We have seen lots of theatricality- Churchillian speeches and well produced parades but the reality has been that the Ukrainian people have been excluded from any public political discourse. And had to be in order for the current order in Kiev to exist.
There is a reason why there are no opposition parties, no Unions, no protests.. And it is not because the people are united behind Zelensky and that Russians are really held to be alien, dangerous and objects if hatred.
What this means is that when the people do come on the stage they are going to be very angry with both their government and NATO.
All Russia has to do, politically, is to insist on the people of Ukraine being properly consulted and for the death squads and gestapo to be reined in.
Militarily their task is, and long has been, more complex: it is to defeat Ukraine and NATO without causing too much damage or hurting too many Ukrainians. That is hard to do. It is something that the US has never attempted. But then imagine what a plebiscite in Afghanistan or Iraq would tell us about public attitudes towards the Empire. Russia is going to stick Kosovo deep down Washington's craw: "You believe regions have the right to secede, do you? Well, so do the Russians, Hungarians, Slovaks and Poles in Ukraine."
Whether Putin or Lavrov have deliberately brought about the current situation is difficult to determine. But it is also irrelevant. The situation is what it is: Ukraine is defeated. It can only survive if NATO commits unlimited money, materiel and manpower to its defence. And that is not going to happen.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 18:16 utc | 20
“Interesting that 9 months on no-one actually knows what the objectives of the war are from the Russian side.” - Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 17:34 utc | 3Every regular and many casual MoA readers actually know Russia’s war objectives. From day one of the special military operation, they’ve been explicitly stated by Russian government officials, repeated, explained, and analyzed by b and many commentators, here and elsewhere. https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=what+are+russia%27s+smo+objectives
Posted by: DocHollywood | Nov 21 2022 18:17 utc | 21
@ b who wrote
"
Another problem with talks is that there is no one to talk to.
"
I don't quite take it the same as b but look at it from a more cultural anthropological perspective.
About the no one to talk to:
How about talking to King Chuck regarding colonialism,
How about talking to Pope Frank about hypocritical religion,
How about talking to those that own the BIS, City of London Corp, US Fed regional banks, etc. regarding public/private finance, and
How about talking to humanity about barbaristic patriarchy which is at the root of all of the above.
The Dawn of Everything by Graeber/Wengrow show us that our species has overcome barbaristic patriarchy before and lived in multi-polar peace for centuries in various parts of our world.
In spite of shortsighted barflys like moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 18:04 utc | 14 and others, humanity is in a civilization war about public/private finance at the core of the social contract. Russia is playing bad cop, with Ukraine the current focus, to the bullies and China is playing good cop.
Not to put too fine a point on it but humanity is on the cusp of moving out of the barbaristic patriarchy of the past 2K+ years and into more humanistic forms of social arrangements.....it is called evolution....change is the only constant.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 21 2022 18:21 utc | 22
We are now told that Germany has put Patriot air defense missile systems on the Polish/Ukrainian border. To shoot down Russian missiles? Or shoot down intentionally wayward Ukrainian missiles? This doesn't look good. I think we're looking at a wider war now. It had to happen.
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 21 2022 18:22 utc | 23
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 18:04 utc | 14
Disingenuousness is never a very attractive look, especially with such clear cut objectives
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Nov 21 2022 18:24 utc | 24
you may not be able to talk to Z, but if you pay him he will be happy to pretend to play the piano with his d..., and you can even name the tune. that's what NATO did.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 18:27 utc | 25
Posted by: maciel | Nov 21 2022 17:50 utc | 9
i don't think there is a place to run to. maybe i'm too pessimistic.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 18:29 utc | 26
The western axis will never talk until it is time to surrender.
If Russia doesn't continue to get rid of the axis powers in their neighborhood, this ugly religion of war will go on. Only the west wants war and has demonstrated that for centuries. The world is relying on Russia to free them. Quite cowardly waiting I would add. They are taking down the bully by themselves.
Russia is in no financial distress. The axis nations however have eaten themselves. They have arranged to give their friends all the treasure kept in security for their people. Every western nation has eliminated democracy or republican forms of government and gone straight to fascism/communism. Russia just awaits the collapse that will cause the new depression. It won't take long because all the wealth is illusional. Paper one's and zero's, all counterfeit.
Be patient. The collapse will continue no matter what anyone does. Russia will continue to protect itself. It has known what it is up against for a very long time. All its allies all over this planet know as well.
Posted by: Tard | Nov 21 2022 18:31 utc | 27
"One wonders how long European politicians will be able to justify that charade."
The question shoud be how long the European masses would continue to suffer in silence before they can't take it any more? This is an interesting time.
Posted by: Steve | Nov 21 2022 18:36 utc | 29
Posted by: Steve | Nov 21 2022 18:36 utc | 29
indeed, I just wish I was 500 years in the future reading about it.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 21 2022 18:39 utc | 30
I don't quite take it the same as b but look at it from a more cultural anthropological perspective.
About the no one to talk to:
How about talking to King Chuck regarding colonialism,
How about talking to Pope Frank about hypocritical religion,
How about talking to those that own the BIS, City of London Corp, US Fed regional banks, etc. regarding public/private finance, and
How about talking to humanity about barbaristic patriarchy which is at the root of all of the above.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 21 2022 18:21 utc
But b is right, you can't "talk" to these people/organizations. They simply ignore anything not in their agenda and talk about anything BUT.
Again, our Rothschild-class cutouts, Trudeau, Freeland and Singh, provide a prime demonstration of that methodology at work.
All that Trudy had to do was walk out the front doors of the Parliament Building and sit down and TALK to the protesters. To this day, he refuses.
I fully expect he and the Cabinet will claim "Parliamentary Privilege" and refuse to answer any substantive question. And if any "answers" are forthcoming, the will be political and bureaucratic gibberish. Despite the damning evidence already presented to the Commission.
This phenomena can be clearly seen in any ZATO political and bureaucratic system, when questioned, they blatantly ignore or change the subject. And the media, police and courts refuse to do their jobs and bell the cat.
Russia faces the same "agreement impossible" nonsense from all US/ZATO/EU Rothschild-class cutouts involved in the Uki-Nazi debacle.
Posted by: Old canadian | Nov 21 2022 18:47 utc | 31
Five to one, b..., one in five,no one there gets out alive!!
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Nov 21 2022 18:52 utc | 32
«sacrificing Europe's economy and industrial capacity to give US a boost in the competition against China is the MAIN objective»
It is clearly not the main objective, it is a "nice to have" secondary effect.
The main objective is transparently (because the Rassian Federation is a rather secondary threat for the USA ruling class) to surround China putting CIA/DOD bases and biolabs on the northern and western chinese borders to fund train and arm a lot of "freedom fighters" inside China, which can happen only if there is a regime change in Moscow. The steps are simple, it is standard "domino theory":
* First 10-15 years to do regime change in Ukraine and the USA appointed Poroshenko president of Ukraine.
* Then 8 years to setup CIA/DOD biolabs and bases inside Ukraine to train, fund and arm "freedom fighters" on the southern border of the RF.
* Then a longish war "to the last ukrainian" to weaken the RF military and create many ukrainian martyrs.
* Then several years of "mujahideen" banderista guerrillas inside occupied areas of Ukraine and Belarus and RF.
* Then regime change in Moscow (and consequently in Almaty) and the USA will appoint Navalny as president of the Muscovy Republic.
* Then CIA/DOD biolabs and bases inside the Siberian Confederation and the Kazakh Kingdom to train, fund and arm "freedom fighters" on the northern and western borders of China.
* Then regime change in Bejing and China splits in various states as in the past.
https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html>
«The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials [...] “The United States is training an insurgency,” said a former CIA official, adding that the program has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians.” [...] the CIA and other U.S. agencies could support a Ukrainian insurgency, should Russia launch a large-scale incursion. [...] “We’ve been training these guys now for eight years [...]”. [...] If the Russians launch a new invasion, “there’s going to be people who make their life miserable,” said the former senior intelligence official [...] “All that stuff that happened to us in Afghanistan,” said the former senior intelligence official, “they can expect to see that in spades with these guys.”»
https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/events/decolonizing-russia
https://sdp.pl/conference-free-nations-of-russia-forum/
«On May 8, the Foksal Press Center will host an international conference „Free Nations of Russia Forum”. We invited not only important Russian politicians, who emigrated and believe that there will come a day, when Putin’s regime will fall and Russia will break with its imperial tradition, but also politicians and experts from the U.S., Poland, Ukraine and Belarus. The forum will also be attended by representatives of nations enslaved by Russian imperialism.»
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40396396
"Opening and dividing China", The World Today, May 1992:
«Needless to say, not all these regions are like to have the same views on foreign policy questions. Coastal regions would be less willing to see relations with the United States deteriorate, or take a hard line with Hong Kong or Taiwan.»
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 18:53 utc | 33
In Russia the two most hated internal enemies are "the fifth columnists", the usual NATO "liberal" imperialists (Iran and western-central asia have the same internal enemies). In Russia as in most Arab countries those are deeply embedded in most of the economy, political and PR tools.
Close second in the "despisometer" is the sixth column, the "Urrrraaaa patriots": those repetiters of the soundbites that "everything is fine", "the cunning plans" etc. When they began to loose momentum, Ukronazis NATO agents pushed the same BS in the informational battlespace in russian language. It was and is crucial for the enemy to slowdown the rising of the popular russian angry bear, never disturb an enemy whose leadership is making mistakes and betrayals.
"It was Medvedchuk who convinced Putin of the need for the Minsks and deliberately played for time in this manner, allowing the UGIL to build echeloned fortifications, increase the power of the army, cultivate Russophobia and Nazi elements (which he himself sponsored) in order to prepare the so-called "Ukraine", or rather, the West with his hands " Ukraine" to war with Russia."
https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/8216
"As long as we have such deputies and TV presenters together with the editorial group of the TV channel, there will be no nationalization. And there will be no production as long as it is economically feasible to buy everything abroad, even in China, even in Iran. The market decides everything.
But there will be yachts, golden parachutes, grain deals.
We remind you that these people are called upon to ensure internal stability through the information field."
https://t.me/dva_majors/5758
Comparing the leadership of Putin and Stalin when confronted with deadly enemies, using the archives of the Kremlin.
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/577
Posted by: Kareem | Nov 21 2022 19:02 utc | 34
Sonja Van den Ende on the Kherson withdrawal:
"The Western media have widely celebrated the retreat of Russian forces from the city of Kherson, presenting the Ukrainians as liberators of the city and the Russian retreat as an example of the weakness of the Russian army and its impending collapse.
"However, the same media have a track record of biased and misleading coverage of the Ukraine war that leads one to question its veracity in all aspects of its reporting.
"With regards to Kherson, the media has failed to acknowledge that the Russian retreat was a calculated one designed in part to save the Nova Kakhovka dam, which the Ukrainians had threatened to blow up in an act of state terrorism...."
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 19:03 utc | 35
The question shoud be how long the European masses would continue to suffer in silence before they can't take it any more? This is an interesting time.
Posted by: Steve | Nov 21 2022 18:36 utc | 29
Very long time for West Europeans, short time for East Europeans. The difference in wealth is huge, West can lose a lot before they even notice, East have almost zero left to lose. Soon the large protests in Moldova will spread to Bulgaria and Romania. Exactly when it happens depends on the energy prices, salary and pension cuts because in East the energy prices started to jump since around March 2022. they were already at about 2-3x compared to 2021 long before rich West had a 20-30% increase.
Posted by: rk | Nov 21 2022 19:03 utc | 36
It is essential to realize that Russia is rebuilding war-damaged cities such as Mariupol which slows down the killing part of the war effort. The following video of the reconstruction of Mariupol may help to lighten the hearts of many at this forum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea1qF4OK364&t=10s
Posted by: Krollchem | Nov 21 2022 19:04 utc | 37
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 18:16 utc | 20
«What this means is that when the people do come on the stage they are going to be very angry with both their government and NATO.»
A large number of ukranian think like that, and indeed several millions escaped for safety to the Russian Federation rather than Poland or Germany, but many have been indoctrinated, as Poroshenko claimed in a really important interview:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-s-ex-president-petro-poroshenko-the-army-is-like-my-child-1.4885308
"The idea of Nato was “not very popular in Ukraine” to start, Poroshenko says, with just 16 per cent of Ukrainians supporting integration to Nato in 2013 right before he was elected president – but by the time he finished his term, 61 per cent did."
In general, except for the expatriate fascist communities, most of the ex-COMECON populations were skeptical of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and would have liked to be mostly independent and keep close relationships with the Russian Federation.
For example there never was a referendum in East Germany because the USA ruling elites were afraid that the east germans would reject joining the FRG and NATO, and would have preferred to be independent and neutral like prosperous Austria. There was never an unification process, with a treaty confirmed by a referendum. The east german state was not merged with the west german state, it was simply abolished and east Germany was in effect invaded (without resistance) and annexed by the FRG and NATO. Quite a big difference for example from the declaration of independence of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in 1990, 1994 and again in 2014, and the request to become a member of the Russian Federation.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 19:06 utc | 38
@moaobserver
Apparently, "moaobserver" feels Russia is obligated to show its hand at the card table. What a clown. If only you'd stick to observing ...
Posted by: LastLaugh | Nov 21 2022 19:06 utc | 39
"..Don't know about Ukraine, often people defend their freedom for quite a long time..."
Membrum Virile@17
Can you really argue that 'the people of Ukraine" are "defending their freedom"?
They have repeatedly voted against the policies that the government is pursuing.
They are banned from publicly dissenting from the regime. There are no political parties. The country is ruled by Nazi controlled police forces, nazi militias and death squads. Nor are the conscripts, kept in line by nazis, offered any choice. And you call this freedom?
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 19:10 utc | 40
Speaking of Rothschilds, today's Washington Post has an obituary for 91-year-old Evelyn de Rothschild, who died Nov.7. No cause of death given.
No military record. Attended Cambridge but got no degree. "Mr. Rothschild played polo, dated an abundant assortment of women and raced horses."
Posted by: Lysias | Nov 21 2022 19:11 utc | 41
We are now told that Germany has put Patriot air defense missile systems on the Polish/Ukrainian border. To shoot down Russian missiles?
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 21 2022 18:22 utc | 23
Many have said Ukr will turn into a much worse Syria and it surely looks like it now. Poland can shoot Russian missiles over Ukr space claiming they were going close to border. But Patriot is a stupid old system, even cheap drones can bypass it, they can't change anything with them and they don't have enough of them to prevent any attacks on Ukr.
What is funny is that nato parliamentary assembly recommended members to declare Russia a "terrorist state".
Posted by: rk | Nov 21 2022 19:14 utc | 42
It's interesting that Gilbert Doctorow believes Russians are unhappy with their own government because of what they sense as pusillanimity in the conduct of SMO. In reading Chinese language blogs, this emerges as the sentiments of most Chinese commenters as well. Perhaps the Russian leadership, Putin in particular, are sincere in considering Ukrainians as de facto Russians and wouldn't want to make life way too harsh for their fellow "countrymen".
Posted by: Oriental Voice | Nov 21 2022 19:15 utc | 43
The Baltic states are driven by the same Nazi elements that drive Ukraine. Czechs and Poles simply hate Russians. All of them see the US a protector vs Russia (and vs the EU/Germany). If the US was to conclude a deal with Russia, cutting Ukraine into pieces, it would hurt the ability to use these states any longer as a Trojan horse in EU and NATO politics. So I cant even see much wiggle room for the US, unless the US wants to abandon Eastern Europe entirely.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 21 2022 19:16 utc | 44
Peace is by definition a two sided affair, in this case it's one sided, whether the USA wants to or not, that's all she wrote.
Here's my guess to upcoming events: I don't think there will be a big arrow RF winter offensive. I think Russia will concentrate on completing the Donbas operation, and I think if that isn't completed by the end of January there will be firing squads for military leaders. Just kidding, but if Russia doesn't control the Donbas by then they should just admit defeat. Ukraine is using this difficulty to pin Russian forces there and away from Zaporizhzhia.
The army in Belarus is pinned there by the a sagacious, treacherous Pentagon, if they move south Russia risks loosing Belarus. The large Russian force there is to guarantee no compromised and bought Belarus commander attempts a coup against Lukashenko or surrenders if attacked from Poland, so they can't be used elsewhere.
For the rest Russia will be all on the defensive protecting the land bridge to Crimea and that is what the mobilization was for, that and finishing the Donbas. The big arrow movements will all be from Ukraine with feints at Belgorod and Kursk while trying to push a giant salient to Melitopol. If it happens Ukraine needs to split RF forces east of the Dnieper to take pressure off that Melitopol salient's flanks, so, no relenting in the Donbas no matter the cost and they might seriously try to establish a bridgehead at the Kinburn Spit, pulling RF forces away from the middle and the exposed salient. The Kinburn Spit seems suicidal, supposedly they've tried twice now, they really need that bridgehead, and the Pentagon is going full Zhukov, keep throwing men in till you win.
The Russians seem worryingly on the defensive with kilometers of trenches and tank barricades along Belgorod and Kursk and now all along the north of Crimea from what I read on TG. They just keep digging and working before the ground freezes. Maybe just smart belt and suspenders if worst case happens but it sure doesn't look like any winter offensive other than to keep on keeping on in the Donbas and hold the land bridge. No idea what spring is supposed to bring, that is what changes the Russians expect to see. Final exhaustion of Ukraine after the failed Melitopol drive?
Should be make or break for one side or the other by Spring. Maybe the Russians will surprise us all, but they aren't the type.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 19:16 utc | 45
Robert Parry predicted it well in Consortium News in 2015:
"The mess that Nuland made."
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/07/13/the-mess-that-nuland-made/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 21 2022 19:17 utc | 46
Curious the reports that peace talks would be seen as negative by the Russian polity. The Outlaw US Empire's goal was the destabilization and thus ousting of Putin and Russia's government; so, given the takes by b's sources, the Empire ought to do exactly that--propose peace talks regardless of Zelensky.
There's also another possibility: the Outlaw US Empire has absolutely no control over its Neo-Nazi spawn and is quite fearful of what would happen to all its in-country personnel if it tried to throw Zelensky under the bus.
Something else for barflies to ponder: If the reports by b's sources are correct, then Russia has a far stronger democracy than any Western nation for Russia's leaders are listening/bowing to the demands of their polity, not ignoring them and doing what they want. Indicative of that is what's being portrayed as today's major event on Putin's agenda: Launch of a breeding center for turkey reproduction in the Tyumen region, over 2000K to Moscow's East. From Putin's opening remarks, one might get the impression that the event is very political:
"President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues, hello to everyone.
"It is no secret that today the entire country is dealing with the issues that we consider an absolute priority. I mean the whole country. I will not go into detail about what’s happening in general at this point but now we are at an event we have planned, where we deal and will be dealing only with sectoral issues. At the same time, these issues are crucial for the economy in general, for enhancing our sovereignty in vital areas like the agro-industrial complex."
But the next sentence gives it away and rivals The Onion:
"Today, the first turkey breeding centre is being launched in the Tyumen Region."
Perhaps RT should publish an op/ed saying turkey talk outranks peace talks.
The (Russian) channel blackcolonel2020 is interesting. Most recent post:
(Translated)
Judging by the regular menacing statements of the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, ex-President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, in connection with the situation in Ukraine, it seems that he has begun an election campaign for the 2024 presidential election of the Russian Federation. Or rather early presidential elections. Seeing the failure of V. Putin in Ukraine and his inability to adequately respond to what is happening, he realized that "Akela missed" and perhaps his time had come.
Let me remind you that in August 2008 it was Russian President Dmitry Medvedev who took responsibility for the decision to send troops to Georgia. At that time, as Prime Minister of the Russian Federation V. Putin, before that, he urgently fled from Moscow to the opening of the Olympics in Beijing in order to avoid responsibility for making very difficult decisions in that crisis situation.
And the most interesting thing is that, according to Dmitry Medvedev, in an interview shortly after the victory in Georgia, he, as the president of the Russian Federation, could not contact his prime minister in Beijing for a day, since all Putin's phones, including government communications, were turned off. And then for the first time there was a public conflict between Medvedev and Putin, because Putin denied this shameful fact. But the fact that Putin returned to Russia only when the situation stabilized and our troops entered Tskhinval is a reliable fact.
And he, having flown from Beijing to Vladikavkaz, defiantly did not meet with the command of the military operation in Georgia, but only held a meeting with the administration of North Ossetia regarding assistance to refugees.
So we are stocking up on popcorn and perhaps in the near future we will observe a fight between two bulldogs under the carpet. As it is described in the famous metaphor: “The fight of bulldogs under the carpet - you can’t see anything, only from time to time a bulldog bitten to death falls out”.
Posted by: Moaoabserver | Nov 21 2022 19:18 utc | 48
Really hard to say about US. Don't know about Ukraine, often people defend their freedom for quite a long time.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 18:11 utc | 17
Problem solved. Neither the US or Ukraine are fighting for their freedom, only Russia and the former East Ukrainian people are.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 19:19 utc | 49
Mummer | Nov 21 2022 18:34 utc | 28
Originally known as yazata from the Zoroastrianism tradition, they were supposed to have been created by Ahura Mazdā to help him maintain the flow of the world order and quell the forces of Ahriman and his demons. Believed to have been based on even older ancient Iranian deities reduced to auxiliary status. Adapted by the Jews after the Achaemenid conquest. Another exotic import from the east. Really big with the Qumran crowd before the first revolt.
Posted by: Hmpf | Nov 21 2022 19:19 utc | 50
LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 19:16 utc | 45
"Ukrainian units deployed to the contact line in Zaporozhye region, West Russia near the cities of Orekhov and Gulyaipole are conducting combat coordination before advancing South to Melitopol or Berdyansk - Zaporozhye Administration official Rogov."
Looks like general Baldie still has no soldiers and probably will order a new retreat soon. Where are the 300k? If they can't find a few soldiers to simply hold positions, how can it be an offensive?
Posted by: rk | Nov 21 2022 19:23 utc | 51
Hmpf | Nov 21 2022 19:19 utc | 49
Your typical liberal pop-culture opinion is the 'university special', I'm sure. ... I always wonder why liberals are so anxious about this topic. It seems as though there is some sense of insecurity and fear here.
We will be victorious:
https://cne.news/artikel/1852-russian-orthodox-church-holds-prayer-service-for-victory-russia
Posted by: Mummer | Nov 21 2022 19:26 utc | 52
Putin wants to keep everyone guessing. Asinine
@14
Could be you are just senile, and everything just goes over your head.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 19:29 utc | 53
@39 LastLaugh
You’re a funny guy.
All allied soldiers knew what they were fighting for in WW2 - the total defeat and unconditional surrender of the Nazi regime.
The Ukrainians know what they are fighting for. - to expel the invaders from their land and exterminate all pro-Russian collaborators.
As for Russian, how about another quote from that Russian channel?
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/574
“But the execution of our servicemen clearly showed the inferiority of the ideology of the special military operation, but in fact the "strange war" that is being waged in Ukraine. When our belligerent army observes “agreements” almost every day, constant calls for negotiations with the enemy. And not only calls, but actually ongoing negotiations behind the back of the army. When, for the sake of some incomprehensible goals, our army is fighting with its hands tied, because from somewhere above there are prohibitions to fight in full force.
When for the sake of someone's commercial and political interests vast territories are surrendered to the enemy, for which hundreds and thousands of our servicemen died in battles.
When there are regular exchanges of prisoners, and the bloody murderers from Azov are exchanged in the first place, although before that there were loud threats that they would all be tried for war crimes.
When for a godfather or a relative of an influential person they can sacrifice hundreds of our servicemen who remain to rot in Ukrainian captivity.
And now a simple soldier who finds himself in a difficult situation, faced with a choice to die in battle or surrender, chooses the second. In the hope that after some time it will be exchanged sooner or later.
He does not want to die for Abramovich and Co., he does not want to die for the NVO, in which the goals of the operation change regularly and treacherous "agreements" are being implemented before his eyes.
The bosses hang noodles on his ears that on the other side of the front, the same representative of the triune Russian people is fighting against him, who can in no way be an enemy and who should be treated almost like a brother. As long as all this continues, we will suffer defeats and pay for them with the lives of thousands of our soldiers.
And in conclusion, I will give excerpts from the texts of the military oaths of the Soviet army and the Russian army, directly related to the question of life or death in the war. But the military oath is an oath that is given on allegiance to the Fatherland.
Here is an excerpt from the text of the Soviet oath: “... I am always ready, by order of the Soviet Government, to defend my Motherland - the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and, as a soldier of the Armed Forces, I swear to defend it courageously , skillfully, with dignity and honor, not sparing his blood and life itself to achieve complete victory over enemies.
And here is the full text of the oath of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: “I, (last name, first name, patronymic), solemnly swear allegiance to my Fatherland - the Russian Federation. I swear to sacredly observe the Constitution of the Russian Federation, to strictly comply with the requirements of military regulations, orders of commanders and superiors. I swear to fulfill my military duty with dignity, to courageously defend the freedom, independence and constitutional order of Russia, the people and the Fatherland. Feel the difference.”
…
Does this sound like a winning army to you? It does not to me. It gives me strong Vietnam resonances.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 19:37 utc | 54
In reply to a comment on the previous post, as I think it is relevant here:
Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Nov 21 2022 10:15 utc | 216
«If I am right then Russia will steamroll its way through Ukraine with little meaningful resistance.»
Armies collapse when their reason to fight ends, which includes when their logistics disappear, in which case they dissolve or become mercenary.
Most people (including perhaps even the "Stavka" :->) misunderstand the fundamental nature of the "Special Military Operation" and then of the recently started "War for the defense of the Russian Federation": one the two SMO aims was in essence a *siege* of Ukraine, a partial siege of course because it was only on the east side, leaving the west side able to resupply.
But even as a partial siege, it had and has the same objective as any siege: to slowly exhaust the logistics of the area under siege leading to their dissolving/surrender. So no “steamrolling”, as in "Operation Desert Storm", more like the 1990s siege of Yugoslavia.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 19:38 utc | 55
thank you, b, thank you posters for your interesting takes---i wonder though why we continue to circle pondering & wondering when the empire will begin to engage in meaningful talks...bt when has it? were there discussions prior to the infamous vietnam, afghanistan? withdrawal? korea, yes, bt imo the empire was in a state of metamorphosis, city of london configuring its marriage to wall street & the beltway. iraq, they are still hanging on in the most odious way, syria. it seems the goto is the old sneaking out the bathroom window. no nasty written cree no guarantees perhaps dirty laundry & a mess of unpaid bills & o/c the place is totally absolutely looted, wasted & wrecked. that seems our empire's method of proceeding.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Nov 21 2022 19:41 utc | 56
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 19:10 utc | 40
Banning dissent with the government is an often used policy during wartime. In some form probably used in all european countries during WWII. Not in the US, because it wasn't fighting for it's survival. Likewise, that is what conscription is during wartime, a means to secure the independence of the country.
Political parties existed before war. Banning them surely is a mistake, but should be lifted as conditions ease.
Most of the Nazis, ie. Azov-regiment, were already killed in Mariupol. They certainly can't be controlling anything more than some small part of the military, if that.
So yes, fightning to be able to let themselves, Ukrainians control their country, not the invaders.
Goog enough definition of freedom for me.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 19:19 utc | 48
US is of course playing their usual imperialistic games. But in this war, so are Russians.
Only ones fighting for their right to determine their right to rule their own country are indeed Ukrainians.
ALL of them, resisting the invaders.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 19:44 utc | 57
Seeing footage of the Kherson "victory parade" for Ukraine says to me that the Ukrainians are still hopelessly delusional. It was a solid turnout for sure.
Russia can not win the propaganda war, because the west has already made Putin into both Stalin and Hitler.
It will go on in a manner of attrition until its breaking point. What that point is, we can only hazard a guess.
The west is hopelessly asleep. And it seems that only great calamity outside of direct revelation from God can wake us up.
Are you starting to see yet that the liveral west, both its democracy and its capitalism is hopelessly inadequate when fielding the problem of two unstoppable forces colliding? History is therefore not finished. The rain of awesome destruction from this explosion will not be topped in our lifetime and probably not for generations to come. Hegel called it "the slaughter-bench of history "
I am glad it is happening because I am too fatigued from living such a disgusting lie. Only the pursuit of truth makes life worthwhile.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Nov 21 2022 19:46 utc | 58
@56
Think you left someone out - the residents of Crimea, DPR, and LPR, who see the Western Ukrainians as invaders?
You did say ALL Ukrainians… right?
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 19:47 utc | 59
The aim of NATO's war on Russia is not victory, but to weaken Russia by fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Therefore, no peace is possible until Russia has defeated the last Ukrainian.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Nov 21 2022 19:49 utc | 60
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 19:47 utc | 58
I most certainly did write that. And I didn't leave anybody out. Russians are the invaders. And that sentiment is shared throughout Ukraine.
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 19:52 utc | 61
Western presstitutes like to frame the Russian requests for negotiations as weakness or "Russia is losing!", but as someone who has been in street fights before, and in particular ones where the other guy has a gang egging him on, it is not uncommon or lacking in manhood to ask your opponent if he has had enough after you've knocked him down a few times and he is staggering about in a daze. It is those kind of fights where the other guy's gang helps him back to his feet and pushes him back into the fight, which is precisely the situation with the Ukraine, where asking your opponent if they still want to continue is most important.
Russia asking for negotiations is not a sign of weakness, but rather a sign of the truly humanitarian nature of Russia's operation in the Ukraine. The sooner the Ukraine agrees to the very simple and reasonable demands that Russia has made the sooner the pain stops for the Ukraine. There is nothing manly about needlessly inflicting pain on others, and Russia is willing to stop as soon as the threats from NATO and the Nazis have been addressed.
Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 21 2022 19:53 utc | 62
@60;
Good to know you are a facile little fascist.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 19:54 utc | 63
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 18:53 utc | 33
Your analysis is basically correct and comes from a faction within the Deep State in the USA. Their rationale is that there are two possibilities for the future of the world: 1) a world dominated by the USA Empire; and 2) a world dominated by the Chinese state. The line, repeated over and over again as a holy mantra is that "it had better be us." This comes from my inside knowledge of the US Empire and the culture of the foreign policy elite at least up to a few decades ago. However, at this time this notion is being gradually discredited and the main actors in Washington are shifting their POV. They still support the Imperial agenda of total domination of the globe as a kind of vague organizing goal but they are less committed to that cause than they were in 2014. Turning US foreign policy around is very hard because of inertia. There is too much money in the pipeline benefiting too many oligarchs. The trick now is to keep them going but making the old policies more or less as bribes to those oligarchs while cultivating new oligarchs.
In short we will see dramatic changes in the direction of US foreign policy (doesnt' matter which political party is in charge since the US is no longer a functioning democracy) in the next few years away from the "full-spectrum dominance" nonsense into a more "realist" position of attempting to shore up US dominance in the finance world. This latter course is clear in the continuing sanctions regime. We see precisely what I described--a black market in energy where Euro-chumps pay premium prices for Russian energy in the mistake assumption that Americans care about Europeans because of cultural similarities. USA oligarchs don't care about European culture anymore and are perfectly happy to see Germany/France/Italy descend into genteel poverty. The European people, because of their belief in the honesty and wisdom of "the authorities" punters who are pulling the wool over their own eyes. I think the US is quite content to focus on their relationship with China, Japan, the Koreas, Indonesia, Malasia, Vietnam, Phillipines, Thailand and Singapore as well as the poorer areas of the world. Europeans no longer count because their culture is, as it has been for a long time, beginning to rot. Some parts may survive with proper leadership like Hungary and perhaps Italy with Meloni.
Posted by: Chris Cosmos | Nov 21 2022 19:56 utc | 64
@bevin
Agree with all your posts here, especially your point about the suppression of real Ukrainian popular opinion. It is a 'nation' whose state consists of a series of mafia neo-nazi fiefdoms propped up by corrupt Western intelligence and whose GDP derives chiefly from selling its population down the river (sex trade, marriage scams, money laundering, ponzi schemes, drug and gun running, selling off land to US agri-business, energy skimming, etc). The idea that such a place could represent democracy and freedom is a joke of such poor taste that all the efforts of the mendacious western MSM are barely able to stop the rest of the world from retching. The people of Ukraine deserve better, which is why Putin is their best friend. He is cleaning the Augean stables. Finally.
Posted by: Patroklos | Nov 21 2022 19:58 utc | 65
Leroy @ 23
We are now told that Germany has put Patriot air defense missile systems on the Polish/Ukrainian border. To shoot down Russian missiles? Or shoot down intentionally wayward Ukrainian missiles?
The Patriot is a dingus, maybe the Germans want to see exactly how much they’ve been ripped off seeing they will soon be forced to buy and even bigger butt load of them over the next 20 years.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 20:01 utc | 66
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 19:52 utc | 60
«Russians are the invaders. And that sentiment is shared throughout Ukraine.»
Are the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zhaporizia and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea part of the Ukraine? :-)
As to who invaded whom:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas
«3,393 civilians killed (349 in 2016–2021)
13,100–13,300 killed; 29,500–33,500 wounded overall
414,798 Ukrainians internally displaced; 925,500 fled abroad»
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbas
«On 18 January 2018, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to regain control over separatist-held areas. The bill was adopted with support from 280 lawmakers in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada [...] The law on the reintegration of Donbas labeled the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as "temporarily-occupied territories", while Russia was labeled as an "aggressor". The legislation granted President Poroshenko "the right to use military force inside the country, without consent from the Ukrainian parliament", which would include the reclaiming of Donbas. The bill supports a ban on trade and a transport blockade of the east that has been in place since 2017.»
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/05/10/ukra-m10.html
«10 May 2014
With the open support of Washington and its European allies, the regime installed by Washington and Berlin in last February’s fascist-led putsch is now extending its reign of terror against all popular resistance in Ukraine. That is the significance of the events in the major eastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol yesterday. After tanks, armoured personnel carriers and heavily armed troops were unleashed on unarmed civilians in the city, the Kiev regime claimed to have killed some 20 people. The Obama administration immediately blamed the violent repression on “pro-Russian separatists.”
>The violence bore all the hallmarks of a calculated provocation on the 69th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Red Army. [...] These admirers of Hitler and his Ukrainian collaborators are now serving, with Washington’s full support, as the regime’s shock troops against popular opposition centred in the industrialised east of the country as well as in Russian-speaking centres such as Odessa in the south. The same forces have been given free rein to attack anyone in the west of the country who dares to oppose the fascistic government in Kiev. Outraged accounts from residents of Mariupol, verified by journalists on the ground, make it clear that many of those targeted by the Ukrainian National Guard and associated fascist elements on Friday had been participating in a Victory Day rally commemorating the anniversary.»
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 20:02 utc | 67
@62; Good observation. I feel we saw some of this gradual change in direction in the recent Xi-Biden meeting.
Wouldn’t put much stock in Meloni though.
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 20:02 utc | 68
Therefore, no peace is possible until Russia has defeated the last Ukrainian.
Petri Krohn | Nov 21 2022 19:49 utc | 59
Considering the high numbers of mercenaries fighting these days, the last Ukrainian is not important. In some areas only foreigners fight now. Some people ran to natoland, more of them ran to Russia and if the power outages remain, even more people will run. Zely already is the president of nothing and will go to party with Bojo sooner or later.
Posted by: rk | Nov 21 2022 20:05 utc | 69
Looks to me like another false flag is being set up by the following Reuters posting title
Russia's 'General Armageddon' under pressure to deliver on battlefield after retreat
The article goes on to report that the General is brutal and will be forced to act brutally to prove something....not sure what....what a shit show fed by this propaganda
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 21 2022 20:08 utc | 70
psychohistorian @ 22
Not to put too fine a point on it but humanity is on the cusp of moving out of the barbaristic patriarchy of the past 2K+ years and into more humanistic forms of social arrangements…
...or die trying.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 21 2022 20:08 utc | 71
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 18:53 utc | 33
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 19:06 utc | 38
+1 to both posts and I’ll add:
THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE MUST DIE, By Anne Applebaum
Posted by: Zet | Nov 21 2022 20:25 utc | 72
@ karlof1 | Nov 21 2022 19:18 utc | 46
@ b
'...the first turkey breeding centre is being launched..'
Maybe we should try to understand a responsibility of RF political top in curbing "spoilt brat's" NATO/EU behaviour.
Diplomacy of the high level is pretty much dead on the West ever since Obama's first term.
It started to deteriorate further, with Obama's second term when Kerry and alike were taking over being totally unskilled and undereducated to understand RF's issues. The whole decency and politeness is dead for some time within the West.
That is why RF calls for negotiations of any sort, but not hoping for anything there. There is none at home and they know it.
It is somehow collated to an old tradition parallel to a typical modus of CCCP Army in Afghanistan – on every photograph or a video CCCP military officers and soldiers are smiling and waving.
That was really a great PR move to display them as being always friendly.
Such analogy is as in calls for talks. Never say, 'I do not want.'
As for Putin being somewhat painfully autistic at some legal points, he really has a good sense for balancing straight talk and talking between the lines.
At some point, this turkey breeding centre is more important for Russia than some diplomatic attempts to talk Ukraine and the West to a peace agreement. It probably is a subtle message, but nobody is listening anyway.
On the other significant things to address, I think RF's top is rather busy with curbing a wave of Russian nationalism and aggression that comes with it and criticisms about some peculiar ways SMO is conducted. Good thing is that they talk about that, their problems, emerging shortcomings, disappointments, and wishes.
While NATO/West are still convinced that they do the right thing and do not even try to correct their collision course. Under the surface of their "unity and determination", everything is rotten there.
That arrogant attitude leads towards the very big price to pay, now and in the future.
RF is even continuously pointing that out, while meanwhile ..turkeys...
Posted by: whirlX | Nov 21 2022 20:26 utc | 73
Pretty discouraging but also the general pattern: the war moves away from achieving objectives and more about having no attractive option, little room to maneuver and waiting for something better.
And just like Russia can afford to temporarily give up Kherson in view of the bigger picture, the US can afford to ruin all of Ukraine - and in a way Europe, and it still does not mean Russia wins. Russia may dominate on the battlefield and may achieve large victories in the winter but it is not over until the other side says it is.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Nov 21 2022 20:27 utc | 74
there is no peace without the discussion that economic development takes priority. It is time for everyone to deal with the truth that the dynamic of this war is the hopeless collapse of the trans Atlantic system; it is bankrupt both financially and morally. Time for a new global paradigm dedicated to the progress and sanctity of human life.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 20:02 utc | 65
"Are the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zhaporizia and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea part of the Ukraine? :-)"
Yes. You can ask the Chinese, for example, if you don't believe me ;)
Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 20:29 utc | 76
@53
https://t.me/blackcolonel2020/574 “But the execution of our servicemen clearly showed the inferiority of the ideology of the special military operation, but in fact the "strange war" that is being waged in Ukraine. When our belligerent army observes “agreements” almost every day, constant calls for negotiations with the enemy. And not only calls, but actually ongoing negotiations behind the back of the army. When, for the sake of some incomprehensible goals, our army is fighting with its hands tied, because from somewhere above there are prohibitions to fight in full force.
The site that you present to us is nothing but an anti-Putin, neo-liberal, pro-NATO website on Telegram. It is one of many that I am sure receives funding from the Dark Side to spread lies and cause chaos., and while it does not reflect the majority views of the Russian people, it does say a lot about those who would present such political pornography as facts or proof of anything.
Furthermore, blaming the murder of unarmed Russian POWs, shot in the back of the head while lying face down on the ground, on Putin and "the inferiority" of the SMO is your lowest of lows. The blame is obviously the inferiority of the Nazi ideology and coward puppet that is now the tip of the US Proxy penis that encourages this behavior.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 20:33 utc | 77
Only ones fighting for their right to determine their right to rule their own country are indeed Ukrainians. ALL of them, resisting the invaders.Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 19:44 utc | 56
----------
Think you left someone out - the residents of Crimea, DPR, and LPR, who see the Western Ukrainians as invaders?You did say ALL Ukrainians… right?
Posted by: Moaobserver | Nov 21 2022 19:47 utc | 58
When using the phrase "Ukrainians", it is important to state whether you are referring to "Ukrainian citizens" or "ethno-cultural Ukrainians".
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 21 2022 20:38 utc | 78
For the bar's consideration:
Still trying to make sense of the awkward handling of 1) Polish missile strike, 2) repeated shelling of Zaporizhzhia NPP.
(My) base assumption is that the US totally controls Zelensky, and anything the AFU does is either by US/NATO direct command or with US/NATO consent. Any time Zelensky or the AFU doesn't stay in their lane, western intelligence/military knows about it almost at once. Zelensky knows that, knows where his financial lifeline and arms supplies come from... thus, behaves unquestioningly. Some might argue that Zelensky has some autonomy from his US/NATO overlords so the rest of my argument will not apply.
Now suppose AZOV/ADIAR and the rest of the ultra-nationalist militias were never really absorbed by the Ukraine military (AFU, interior ministry Stazi, National Guards, etc.), Suppose they are still acting largely on their own impetus for their own reasons with their own oligarch financing. They were and remain only nominally under control of Zelensky and the military chain of command, but act on their own whenever they want.
After all, who's going to stop them? They essentially are in league with the SBU Gestapo, so no problems there. Zelensky as CIC? Hardly, they only seem to tolerate him as a somewhat-reliable arms supplier. AFU? Guards? Isn't AZOV/ADIAR the punisher battalions in the rear that shoot deserting AFU/Gurads?
Now consider how AZOV/ADIAR can act with impunity towards *their* rabid, psychopathic ultra-nationalist ends.
Russians took Zaporizhzhia? Shell it to punish (or irradiate) them. But [insert any logic against shelling ZNPP here]? Sorry, but AZOV/ADIAR is willing to take that risk... because it will kill Russians or prevent them from ever using ZNPP. Maybe the Russians will leave (or honor a 'Safety Zone') and AZOV/ADIAR can take it over and threaten Armageddon. Or build a few dirty bombs - whatever.
In any case, AZOV/ADIAR going rogue and shelling ZNPP explains Zelensky's crazy denials - he doesn't know because the 'real' AFU is NOT under orders to shell the plant and/or they are reluctant to report back to Zelensky that it's really AZOV/ADIAR gone rogue. Maybe AZOV/ADIAR is forcing small AFU units to shell the plant under threat of execution, and AZOV/ADIAR will come back and kill them all if they squeal. So all the AFU chain of command above them knows is that they didn't do anything or know anything about ZNPP shelling.
US/NATO getting cold feet in Ukraine? AZOV/ADIAR solution: launch an S-300 (or 'something') into Poland to turn up the heat. Does AZOV/ADIAR have S-300s or something? Doesn't matter. A little group of them show up to an AFU installation and 'encourage' the crews to light a few off towards Poland. And if the crews say anything, well... AZOV/ADIAR knows where their families live. This explains Zelensky's initial confusion/denial that Ukraine fired anything into Poland. Zelensky could find out the unit that fired it from debris (presuming S-300) so he insists on sending a Ukraine team to look at it. He'll never admit it was a Ukraine S-300, but he needs to know for himself if it was one of his.
Now keep in mind that the US had an AWACS right on the border all day and knows precisely where the missile was launched from. Poland quickly kicked out the firemen and had it's spooks sifting through the soil collecting fragments - they have to know by now exactly what it was and have all the serial numbers, etc. If US/NATO and Poland already know it was a Ukraine missile but not fired under the orders Zelensky or the AFU, then they have a bit of a dilemma. I'll call it the head-chopper dilemma for reasons below.
Now if AZOV/ADIAR have gone rogue on their own genocidal frenzy and Zelensky can't control them, then what does the US do? It can't use the SBU Gestapo to purge the ultra-nationalists because the SBU is compromised, too. Neither Zelensky nor his military commanders can do anything because they would get whacked... or worse. The US can't send in JSOC kill teams because the Nazis are everywhere, including Kiev, and there's hundreds of leaders. 'Regular' Ukrainians seem tolerant of AZOV/ADIAR because they're useful and effective. If the US decapitated the Nazi leadership, a lot of Ukrainians would be seriously pissed off.
In the mean time, AZOV/ADIAR knows they're untouchable and will continue to wage war on *their* terms against Russia. There will be no negotiations with AZOV/ADIAR - there's nothing to negotiate. Their 'terms' are exactly what Zelensky has parroted: all Russian troops leave Ukraine, all land returned to Ukraine. Until then, shelling a NPP, fomenting NATO entry into the war or just torturing and executing Russian POWs (and 'disloyal' Ukrainians) provides plenty of entertainment. There is no one 'leader' that they all follow, and nobody to negotiate with. They're driven by ideology alone.
Which brings me back to the US head-chopper dilemma from Syria. What do you do when your efforts to hide radical head-chopper jihadis fail? Once too many YouTube videos come out of 'FSA' moderate head-choppers doing what they like to do - chop heads - then the whole public support thing falls apart. There's no way to fund 'just' the FSA good guys to fight Assad. You pull the plug on the whole project, lick your wounds and take over some oil fields and granaries to punish Assad.
See why the US might be obsessed with hiding the most serious AZOV/ADIAR provocations/war crimes? If the US admits that Zelensky has no control over them, then the US taxpayers are going to get plenty pissed off that we're funding terrorists (directly or indirectly) that are trying to provoke WWIII or irradiate Europe. I would think the Europeans would be plenty worried about this too, but they seem to have a high tolerance for suicidal insanity committed by their leaders. I assume many have caught on by now but are in the same position as I am: what do you do when your own government has gone rogue?
Worse of all, if this has happened (AZOV/ADIAR effectively gone rogue) but the US is afraid to admit it or do anything about it, then you have the Head-chopper Paradox: what do you do when you depended on them for earlier political/military gains, and you still desperately want to 'win' (Depose Assad, Chase Russia out of Ukraine) but now they've become inconvenient and insolent? Head-choppers gonna head-chop.
Now, you're desperate to 1) hide this fact from the American/European public at all costs, and 2) somehow distance yourself from responsibility for their war crimes that you enabled, Walking away isn't an option like it was in Syria. These guys are a serious problem, shelling ZNPP and lobbing rockets into Poland is only the beginning. They'll do more and have to be stopped. But you're arming them to the teeth even better than you're arming the AFU (because AZOV/ADIAR takes what they want first, including financial aid). You can't send NATO in to 'defend' Zelensky and the AFU from the head-choppers that put them in power. You know how sensitive westerners are to the sight of their own dead soldiers.
The 'solution' to the Head-chopper Dilemma in Syria was to walk away and let Russia clean up our mess. I don't think that's going to work in Ukraine. It's clear that US/NATO are terrified and paralyzed - sending more arms and money is just going to make the problem worse.
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 21 2022 18:22 utc | 23
The problem is that it makes almost no military sense to deploy Patriot there in response to what everyone now accepts was a Hail Mary pass by Ukraine to get NATO directly involved.
Perhaps it’s just optics from a German / Polish standpoint, local population sees that defensive action has been taken. On the other hand it could be interpreted as an escalation, in theory that installation could now be used to provide cover for an air or ground incursion into Ukraine.
On negotiations, Ukraine’s “nationalists” are CIA assets, they are classic paramilitary enforcer goons with a Ukrainian nazi tint. If they are jamming up Zelensky it’s because that is current US policy. Any piece of US officialdom claiming negotiations are up to Zelensky is a fool or a knave.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 21 2022 20:43 utc | 80
A couple notes. The public here in US is 100% convinced that Ukraine is winning and Russia is helpless. The troll brigade on this blog thinks about the situation more than the public and gets specific. They are definitely less deluded than is the population. The public is far more optimistic about a glorious victory.
The Euro and Pound Sterling are well up off their lows. Bond rates are down, for US and any country in EU. Happy days are here again. No one takes any of this seriously except those of us who are focussed on it. Nuclear war is on the horizon for any paying attention, to any who are not fixated on Ukraine it is a very minor issue.
Blinken and Sullivan and Milley and all their colleagues are surrounded by flunkies who read NYT and WP and believe it is gospel. No sign there are experts or technical advisors giving straight information. To the extent there ever were any such advisors they were all purged long ago.
Ukraine is fighting with children and old men and any civilian vehicle that still rolls. The mercs and the Polish Army have to see the writing on the wall. Russia did not do even this small mobilization to have them all do garrison duty and keep the paperwork in order. In a couple weeks Russia will advance and take what they want. Not much will stop them. It will be a complete 'who coulda known' and that will include 99.9% of SES grade bureaucrats in Washington.
Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 21 2022 20:45 utc | 81
Speaking of Rothschilds, today's Washington Post has an obituary for 91-year-old Evelyn de Rothschild, who died Nov.7. No cause of death given.Posted by: Lysias | Nov 21 2022 19:11 utc | 41
It was a stroke. Like David Rockefeller, he was the last patriarch/scion of the family dynasty. What is left are spoiled trust fund babies. Hopefully those obsessed with them will move on.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 21 2022 20:45 utc | 82
Mummer @ 1
I think you've got the wrong quote (or, if you will, attribution).
When all is said and done, the one sole condition that makes spiritual happiness and preserves it is the absence of doubt. - Mark Twain
After all is said and done, more is said than done. - Aesop
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 21 2022 20:46 utc | 83
«comes from a faction within the Deep State in the USA. Their rationale is that there are two possibilities for the future of the world: 1) a world dominated by the USA Empire; and 2) a world dominated by the Chinese state. The line, repeated over and over again as a holy mantra is that "it had better be us."»
I have a similar yet fundamentally different view of the USA ruling elite view of China post-Trump:
* Before 1991 there there two "world systems" (spheres of influence in old terminology): USA dominated the "first world" and had the "second world" was well "contained" behind the "iron curtain", and the main threat was the USSR, which dominated the "second world", with China as a rather secondary threat, and the "third world" was mostly under USA domination.
* Between 1991 and 2013 the USA regarded themselves as the sole "hyperpower", dominating a single world system, with the RF as a "a gnat on the butt of an elephant" and the PRC as a vassal state to which outsource the manufacture of flip-flops and t-shirts, so the USA ruling elite wanted a "flat world" system whose sea routes would be entirely controlled by the USA Navy.
* Starting in 2014 and in particular after 2016 the USA ruling elites have realized that if there is a single world system it ends up dominated by the largest economy in it, and that the PRC might become that largest economy and thus become the dominant power in the "flat world".
* To prevent that the USA ruling elites seem to have decide to recreate a situation like that before 1991, by splitting the "flat world" again into a "first world" and a "second world", to "contain" the PRC (and rather secondarily the RF) behind a new "bamboo curtain", to prevent it from taking over the "first world", and to do the split as early as possible, to that the PRC's "second world" would comprise as few countries as possible.
* In the new "second world" the weak partner is now the RF, and just as Nixon managed to detach the PRC from the "second world" in 1972 (and after that the PRC allowed the DOD/CIA to setup a few bases on the southern border of the USSR), the current USA ruling elites hope that with regime change in Moscow they can detach the RF from the PRC, and get some DOD/CIA bases on the northern and western borders of the PRC from which to destabilize the PRC with the usual techniques.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 20:46 utc | 84
Here's another excellent weather site for monitoring what's happening in Europe. Note it currently shows Donetsk at 11.5c and Rostov on Don 13.6c, while on the other side of the frontal boundary sits Kiev at @1c. A five minute close study of the sat pic shows these series of fronts are first impacting Iberia before sweeping into mostly Southern Europe with rather mild temps.
The implications for offensive operations are clear--ground will remain soft and boggy for at least another month, perhaps more, thus channelizing heavy vehicles to the few good roads. Infantry will find it slow going too as it tries to slog through churned up muck cultivated by the shelling. IMO, the possibility of the ground never freezing hard must be faced by military planners the further South/closer to Black Sea one goes. Currently at 5.5c, Odessa is balmy and is forecast to remain above 0c through late December.
So, Russia has several choices: continue what it's doing; decrease what it's doing; begin an offensive move somewhere along the FEBA aimed at some worthy objective(s). I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see the first option continue for another month.
«USA dominated the "first world" [...] by splitting the "flat world" again into a "first world" and a "second world", to "contain" the PRC (and rather secondarily the RF) behind a new "bamboo curtain»
To explain this, consider two terms used in business magazines:
* The old term, "offshoring", mainly to the PRC, was used in the 1991-2014 period, of Tom Friedman's "the world is flat" era.
* The new term is "friendshoring", and means trading only outside the new "second world". Which was what happened in 1945 to 1991, when USA businesses offshore to low-wage (then and soon again) western european countries like the UK or Italy or Germany a lot of jobs, certainly not to the USSR and PRC.
Nowadays "friendshoring" includes cheaper countries than the european ones, like Mexico, India+Pakistan+Bangladesh, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and in part Brazil, but for some higher-end goods and services the USA will resume offshoring to some european countries, nowadays mostly eastern european ones.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 20:56 utc | 86
Russia should fly a few decoy missles by the polish border, see if they can get a few patriots to launch into ukraine. Make them jumpy.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Nov 21 2022 21:02 utc | 87
«When using the phrase "Ukrainians", it is important to state whether you are referring to "Ukrainian citizens" or "ethno-cultural Ukrainians".»
That is important but I feel that “ethno-cultural Ukrainians” is both imprecise and malicious propaganda, because there are three main types of ukrainian citizens from an "ethno-cultural" point of view:
* Ukrainian citizens who are ethno-culturally great-russian (muscovytes, "moskals", "kastaps"), even if bilingual, mostly speak russian are and are orthodox, and mostly are in the east and south (Novorossya).
* Ukrainian citizens who are ethno-culturally malo-russian, often of Cossack descent, mostly in central Ukraine on the western bank of the Dnieper. These are quite close to the great-russians in ethno-cultural terms, about as much as the white-russians of Belarus are (and perhaps closer to the great-russians ethno-culturally than the people in many parts of the Russian Federation, even Russia itself), and usually are russian-speaking and orthodox. These are the "original" inhabitans of the "original" Ukraine, which was centered around Dnipro (Malorossya).
* Ukrainian citizens who are ethno-culturally "ruthenian", who live in what was the Kingdon of Ruthenia once upon a time, and who are not that close culturally or ethnically to the great russians (in particular they consider the great-russians and the white-russians as slav-tatar half breeds), and speak ruthenian, an east slavic language that is not quite similar to russian, and has been influenced by polish (another east slavic language), and are usually catholic uniates, and live in what used to be southern Poland (now part of western Ukraine, Galicia and Volynhia) and eastern Poland (now part of western Belarus).
Note there is a fourth component of smaller minorities, hungarian, rusyn, slovak, romanian, gagauz, greek, italian, ...
The latter group are the fanatic fascist nationalists of Bandera and Petliura and Dontsov, I would not call them “ethno-cultural Ukrainians” also because historically they were not part of Ukraine until 1940.
But as part of malicious propaganda they took over the name "ukrainian" to make-believe that Ruthenia and its language are the "real Ukraine", and to ethnically and culturally cleanse all the other minorities, including the central-Ukraine malorussian minority, which has been forcibly ruthenized since 2014.
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 21:15 utc | 88
"So yes, fighting to be able to let themselves, Ukrainians control their country, not the invaders. Good enough definition of freedom for me..... Only ones fighting for their right to determine their right to rule their own country are indeed Ukrainians.
ALL of them, resisting the invaders." Posted by: Membrum Virile | Nov 21 2022 19:44 utc | 56
Membrum Virile, do you apply the same logic to the Russian speaking to of the former Eastern Ukraine, who were attacked, murdered, raped, for eight years after an illegal government come to power through a US sponsored coup?
Do you even know that the conflict started in February 2014, and not February 2022?
Would the US be fighting for its "freedom" if it prevented Mexico from allowing China from placing long and short-range nuclear missiles on its Southern Border? Would you support that should it happen?
Can a criminal Nazi government which seized power through a coup organized by a foreign power lead a struggle for "freedom" against its own people.
Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 21 2022 21:16 utc | 89
PavewayIV @77--
I posed a similar thought recently but not nearly as detailed. IMO, you're likely correct which means NATO forces in country are effectively hostages.
I love how you lazy fat fucking armchair generals criticize sports.
You were soldiers. Wow good on yeh.
It is probably the most true expression of humanity we have left.
Posted by: Battenmountain | Nov 21 2022 21:20 utc | 91
@77 paveway IV
Thx for the assessment.
Here in the states, if you know Hollywood cinema over the last 40 years, you have probably heard of the game "Six degrees of Kevin Bacon." The goal of the game is to start with an actor or actress or director, etc., and connect that that person to a film with Kevin Bacon in six turns or "degrees." Back when Hollywood would have to turn out a few good films a year because artistry was still, at that time, somewhat profitable, it was a fun game to play with a fellow cinephile.
I just had that thought because here in Ukraine, as you have pointed out, there are many "teams" that are really only loosely-confederated, while the whole facade of the war is for ostensibly for "democracy" (which many Russians translate as "forced anal-sex").
I imagine you can break down the head-choppers into even more teams: ISIS, Al-Nusra, FSA, Kurds, Muslim Brotherhood, House of Saud, etc., etc..
Well here in Ukraine you can play "Six degrees of Golem-Bacon" where the U.S. is acting at the behest of the neocons, who are at the behest of its Jewish shadow-banking. Zelensky is playing both sides against the middle for his own skin, getting his orders from both the Pentagon and CIA/Mossad. Then there is the Banderites who are Nazi-wannabe, Indo-European satanic-nationalists, then there are the common Ukrainian who knows that the Soviets did something bad to them in the past and presume the Russians to now occupy this position in their struggle.
It's just a godawful mess and you have pieced it together in such a way that the conclusion you draw is the most rational one: it is not Russia that is caught in a quagmire. It is clearly the Pentagon who most obviously will take the brunt of the criticism for its opaque mission-directives to the general public, even when there are probably-most-likely nationalists in the mire who were never onboard with this shit in the first place.
So kudos for trying to connect the dots in this wild game of "six degrees of Golem-bacon."
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Nov 21 2022 21:21 utc | 92
Just as Russia is about to take Odessa, the war will go into another prolonged phase as Poland with a few others might invade parts of Western Ukraine. Not sure what Russia will do. Maybe say have at it and deal with the Nazis who hate your guts. Other alternative is for some NATO country to directly attack Russia or false flag. Just pure speculation. Maybe Estonia will fire on some Russian vessels.
Regardless, the war will continue and expand. However, not sure for all their chest pounding and bravado will Germany, France, Nordics, Spain get involved. They will not have the guts nor the armaments and munitions nor the manpower.
But the war will continue as the West and allies are driven by ethnic and religious hatred of the Russians at this point. The West has become invested in what has become a fanatical hatred of Russia and they will like the German Nazis of the 1940s will not let it go.
Posted by: Erelis | Nov 21 2022 21:23 utc | 93
@NemesisCalling | Nov 21 2022 19:46 utc | 57
I am glad it is happening because I am too fatigued from living such a disgusting lie. Only the pursuit of truth makes life worthwhile.Well said. Truth is the most important thing.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 21 2022 21:24 utc | 94
B.,
I think You, Yves, and Medvedev are correct. The war cannot end as long as Zelensky stays in office. So, a pre-condition for peace is the removal of the current leadership. Perhaps only a military junta could manage to negotiate, or perhaps such a leadership would unleash a civil war in the parts of Ukraine not under Russian control. In either case the outlook for Ukraine is grim and neither East or West will want to inherit what is left.
Posted by: Mark Rothschild | Nov 21 2022 21:26 utc | 95
"We are now told that Germany has put Patriot air defense missile systems on the Polish/Ukrainian border. To shoot down Russian missiles? Or shoot down intentionally wayward Ukrainian missiles?"
Posted by: Leroy | Nov 21 2022 18:22 utc | 23
There is a NATO base in Ukraine not far from the border. When it was hit by a barrage of missiles early in the war, there were hundreds of casualties. Foreign troops. Later that day the Pentagon announced 4 soldiers died in a helicopter crash in Poland.
You can bet NATO has returned to that base or is returning. The Patriot missiles are to protect them.
Posted by: First Time Poster | Nov 21 2022 21:28 utc | 96
@ PavewayIV | Nov 21 2022 20:38 utc | 77 with the rogue azov scenario
I agree that there maybe rogue groups at the bottom of our social but their perfidy pales in comparison to the crimes against humanity from those at the top of our "social order"....and I hope they don't catch up, don't get me wrong.
We sit/stand and armchair general the world outside our own when maybe our time would be better spent tending to our home and community. Best to you, yours and the MoA community
Posted by: psychohistorian | Nov 21 2022 21:29 utc | 97
Posted by: Battenmountain | Nov 21 2022 21:20 utc | 89
What in God's name are you talking about w/ sports? Whom here has mentioned any sports?
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Nov 21 2022 21:30 utc | 98
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 21 2022 20:43 utc | 78
«Any piece of US officialdom claiming negotiations are up to Zelensky is a fool or a knave.»
I guess knaves mostly, and some fools. The USA ruling elites and the government experts are first-rate ruthless thinkers and doers, they are not fools or deluded. Even if their front-persons, the PR glad-handlers they "sponsor", the politicians and their appointees, are more like _elensky, hired performers; as Frank Zappa said, USA politics is the entertainment division of the military-industrial complex (or more precisely of Wall Street and the Business Roundtable), political scientists call them euphemistically "consensus aggregators".
Posted by: bevin | Nov 21 2022 18:16 utc | 20
«The situation is what it is: Ukraine is defeated. It can only survive if NATO commits unlimited money, materiel and manpower to its defence. And that is not going to happen.»
I reckon that is indeed not going to happen because the very smart and ruthless thinkers and doers in the USA ruling class want Ukraine to be defeated even if slowly, the calculation seems to be:
* The goal is regime change, Navalny appointed by the Pentagon as president of the Muscovy Republic.
* The Russian Federation and Putin are likely to survive a (quick) military defeat, after all Hussein was still in power after Gulf War 1.
* The Russian Federation and Putin are less much less likely to survive 5-10 years of constant terror attacks by vengeful bandera-guerrillas throughout Ukraine and the Russian Federation, trained, funded and armed in DOD/CIA bases in Romania, Poland, Finland, the baltic statelets.
https://news.yahoo.com/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html>
«The CIA is overseeing a secret intensive training program in the U.S. for elite Ukrainian special operations forces and other intelligence personnel, according to five former intelligence and national security officials familiar with the initiative. The program, which started in 2015, is based at an undisclosed facility in the Southern U.S., according to some of those officials [...] “The United States is training an insurgency,” said a former CIA official, adding that the program has taught the Ukrainians how “to kill Russians.” [...] the CIA and other U.S. agencies could support a Ukrainian insurgency, should Russia launch a large-scale incursion. [...] “We’ve been training these guys now for eight years [...]”. [...] If the Russians launch a new invasion, “there’s going to be people who make their life miserable,” said the former senior intelligence official [...] “All that stuff that happened to us in Afghanistan,” said the former senior intelligence official, “they can expect to see that in spades with these guys.”»
Posted by: Blissex | Nov 21 2022 21:45 utc | 99
@PavewayIV | Nov 21 2022 20:38 utc | 77
This sounds entirely plausible.
Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 21 2022 21:48 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
"When it is all said and done, there is always more said than done." --- Mark Twain
Posted by: Mummer | Nov 21 2022 17:25 utc | 1