Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 27, 2022
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-209

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

> Last summer in the Donbas region, the Ukrainians were firing 6,000 to 7,000 artillery rounds each day, a senior NATO official said. The Russians were firing 40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day.

By comparison, the United States produces only 15,000 rounds each month.

The shortage in 155-mm artillery shells “is probably the big one that has the planners most concerned,” Mr. Cancian said.

“If you want to increase production capability of 155 shells,” he said, “it’s going to be probably four to five years before you start seeing them come out the other end.” <


Other issues:

Energy as a weapon:

Late:

Russia:

Spies:

Renewables:

China:

Woke:

  • French man wins right to not be ‘fun’ at workWashington Post
    The man, referred to in court documents as Mr. T, was fired from Cubik Partners in 2015 after refusing to take part in seminars and weekend social events that his lawyers argued, according to court documents, included “excessive alcoholism” and “promiscuity.”

Use as open (not Ukraine) thread …

Comments

… its ideas conformed by Confucian tradition and all ethical standards, would rather sacrifice profits to preserve lives.
Posted by: bevin | Nov 30 2022 3:38 utc | 292
iirc last nite on tv news report, fairly credible via Chinese source, said China has over 40 million elderly people above 80 years of age, and only about 40% of them have had two vaccine shots … and those being Chinese made (sinopharm?) which are not, maybe not, as effective as western jabs results/protection in the elderly.
Therefore the Chinese leadership held great/reasonable fears that were the current less “harmful”variants get out of control in China this could lead to literally millions of deaths
…. now that was the report as best I can recall. What was being said sounded genuine and sincere. (but that is not me saying it)

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 6:03 utc | 301

Outraged | Nov 30 2022 4:31 utc | 298
China has brought ~800Million citizens out of generational entrenched poverty from 2010-2020(IIRC).
Without health insurance, pensions, freedom of speech, movement or thought.
Thanks but no thanks.

Posted by: Antonym | Nov 30 2022 6:10 utc | 302

301 meaning:
I do not know what the whole truth is in China regarding covid19 status and actions or protests nor govt decision making processes … anecdotal report only fwiw.
Please do not shoot the messenger.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 6:12 utc | 303

Please do not shoot the messenger yet again. I’m already full of holes.

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 6:13 utc | 304

O o …
“Like Putin himself, like China’s leaders, every nation had already tied itself to the US/Western ways for decades to centuries. China literally loves Walmart, Apple, Ebay, Amazon and Tesla.”—Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 0:16 utc | 275
How ’bout: No. & No. In any event, to my knowledge, they have not tied themselves to your ways for a second.

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 30 2022 6:13 utc | 305

@ Antonym | Nov 30 2022 6:10 utc | 302
So, you assert supposedly & falsely, much like the US of A ?
A USA with Militarized Police Forces, virtually zero workers rights, a rigged judicial system feeding a privatized prison system fronting slavery for profit, a staggering rate of Murder & death by firearm, & the largest cause of personal bankruptcies being unaffordable debt due loans taken out to support non-discretionary medical services ? And again even people on $100,000+ salaries live out of cars or tents ? Let alone those who subsist meal to meal on the grace of charities works … hm ?
No. Do you have anything to offer other than regurgitating pathetic propaganda tropes ?

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 6:26 utc | 306

Scorpion #290

It’s not so much mass formation as mass groupthink. Not quite the same thing though some of the elements of mass formation – a general background of all-pervasive anxiety etc. – were definitely part of the general picture.

Thank you. I see that mass propagandising is one of the guide elements and it is supported by mass punishment with mass ridicule with mass shunning as other elements of the wave guide. The signal points in one direction and strays will be excommunicated, cast out, sacked, denied access and so on. Social media has created a cell of isolation and raucus noise and many cower in fear and are obedient. Sad.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 30 2022 6:39 utc | 307

Peter AU1 #215
Napoleon’s ‘Grande Armée’ camped in Moscow for a bit. With winter coming on he got cold feet and decided that was not the place to be.
Not sure if you are just exercising laconic wit but agreed with all you said there except the Russians led by Alexander set fire to Moscow and burned the little prick out. With any luck the little ‘nappy’ from Delaware, emperor Biden will face the same relentless pursuit.
From encyclopedia brittanica:-

Napoleon and his Grand Army of 600,000 men invaded Russia on June 24, 1812. The conflict that ensued was justly called the Patriotic War by the Russians; in it, the strong resistance and outstanding endurance of an entire people were displayed. The war transformed Alexander, suffusing him with energy and determination. The French advanced as rapidly as the Russians retreated, drawing them away from their bases. Napoleon thought that, once Moscow was taken, the tsar would capitulate. But after the bloody Battle of Borodino, Napoleon entered a largely deserted Moscow, which was soon nearly destroyed by fire. The conqueror had to camp in a ruined city where he could not remain, and Alexander did not sue for peace. The tsar, meanwhile, under pressure of public opinion, had named Kutuzov, whom he detested, supreme commander. The old warrior, through brilliant strategy and with the aid of heroic partisans, pursued the enemy and drove him from the country. The retreat from Russia, combined with Napoleon’s reverses in Spain, precipitated his downfall.
Alexander had declared, “Napoleon or I: from now on we cannot reign together!” He said that the burning of Moscow had “illuminated his soul.” He called Europe to arms, to rescue the people who had been enslaved by Napoleon’s conquests. His enthusiasm, perseverance, and steadfast determination to triumph aroused the king of Prussia and the emperor of Austria, and the enheartened allies were victorious at Leipzig in October 1813. This “Battle of Nations” could have been decisive, but Alexander wanted no peace until he reached Paris. He entered Paris triumphantly in March 1814. Napoleon abdicated, and the tsar reluctantly accepted the restoration of the Bourbons, for whom he had little esteem, and imposed a constitutional charter on the new ruler, Louis XVIII. Alexander showed his generosity toward France, alleviating its condition as a defeated country and protesting that he had made war on Napoleon and not on the French people.

Stay well digger.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 30 2022 7:07 utc | 308

China literally loves Walmart, Apple, Ebay, Amazon and Tesla.”—Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 0:16 utc | 275
How ’bout: No. & No. In any event, to my knowledge, they have not tied themselves to your ways for a second.
Posted by: Laurence | Nov 30 2022 6:13 utc | 305
I see a lot about China today written by commenters who clearly know nothing about it. As usual. Speaking from Shenzhen:
The biggest, busiest store near here is the Walmart on Nanhai Dadao.
The Apple store, always busy, used to be run by Bob, an American friend, is over on Shennan Dadao, opposite Window of the World.
Tesla cars are very popular:
Oct 9 (Reuters) – Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) delivered 83,135 China-made electric vehicles (EVs) in September, smashing its monthly record, according to a report released on Sunday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The number marks an 8% increase from August and set a record for Tesla’s Shanghai factory since production began in December 2019, topping the prior deliveries high of 78,906 in June, as the U.S. car maker continues to invest in production in China.
Amazon’s remaining businesses in China include cross-border e-commerce, advertising and cloud services. It shut down its China online store in 2019. Reuters.
Oh. No ebay, it seems.
And that’s not to mention McDonalds, KFC, and Starbucks to which I am just going to for a refreshing mid afternoon cool mango drink.

Posted by: Walt | Nov 30 2022 7:09 utc | 309

Outraged | Nov 30 2022 5:51 utc | 300
I see why you directed me here.
The Chinese regime are inscrutable. They despite all their flaws all believe they are doing the best for the Chinese people and the Chinese people on the whole do as well. Why would they think otherwise when they have seen their nation transform into a futuristic wonderland.
The CPC expertly exploit this success in their propaganda and it works. The CPC use propaganda domestically due to the inherent weakness in the system and the constant attempts by the Empire to subvert the country.The fact is their system dragged 600 million Chinese out of poverty in 12 years a feat never achieved in history of civilization and probably never will again.
The thing about the Chinese though is that when it comes to International diplomacy they do not lie. They are trust worthy partners.
All we hear re China is propaganda from the Empire. It should be a given here that the Empire is a fascist state in that the government is controlled by the MIC. Very different from the German government of the 1930s and 40s, they were socialist.
If you know that the Empire lies, steals, writes its own rules based order and has killed hundreds of millions of innocent lives since inception in 1776 how could one possibly view the Chinese in a negative light ? Cognitive dissonance should be avoided as it causes psychological stress.
I shall read this thread now.

Posted by: Klaatu | Nov 30 2022 7:17 utc | 310

Posted by: Walt | Nov 30 2022 7:09 utc | 309
Tx for that eyewitness report. But is it universal? Is it really love? And is it really Sean’s place to state their sentiments?
As for Sean’s previous sentence, it’s a great big zero.

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 30 2022 8:03 utc | 311

uncle tungsten | Nov 30 2022 7:07 utc | 308
My understanding is the Russians pulled a scorched earth retreat. I memory is not the best but I think the Russians set Moscow on fire before they left. Both armies took big losses at Borodino though the Russians had to pull out and retreat when their defenses were broken. Napolean had to bring the Russians to battle again to destroy their army but could not do so.
Reaching Moscow, Napoleon sends a message to Alexander asking/demanding capitulation. Weeks go by and winter’s coming on, there’s no food in Moscow and not a peep not a boo from the Russians. Napoleon got a bit figity over the sound of silence. If he stayed in Moscow he was facing a Russian winter with no food and the Russian army, although they had taken losses were still undefeated.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 8:26 utc | 312

@ Walt | Nov 30 2022 7:09 utc | 309
Thx walt, neat response. What I meant by ebay (and amazon) is that they are really good sales outlets for Chinese commerce/suppliers enterprises globally. So they ‘ love ’em’ .

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 8:44 utc | 313

@ Laurence | Nov 30 2022 8:03 utc | 311
Would suggest Walt may be casually overstating the significance of limited foreign consumer business concessions, somewhat.
A tiny minority spending part of your new found prosperity on foreign trinkets or novelty & exotic food items to be in the ‘chique’ crowd is hardly representative.
Perhaps Walt may wish to enlighten on the Chinese civilization & culture primary value of & practices re family, core, inner, outer, extended, even to ‘bonded’ business partners considered extended outer family.
Western ‘Legal’ contracts & practices are secondary to above bonds & cultural obligations.
Perhaps China’s interstate roadside diners/rest-stops, where everyone eats communally of traditional Chinese dishes, with chopsticks.
The largest annual migration of human beings on Terra, as millions & upon millions travel on leave to be home, for Chinese new Year, throughout China & as expats fly home from around the world, in the height of Winter snow storms, by high speed trains, planes, cars, buses, holiday with family … then travel back again to the their workplaces.
That the Chinese remember & are thoroughly educated in the more than two centuries of war, rapine, mass murder & casualized slaughter & unaccountable murders prior to 1911 revolution by the G7 Imperialists. Especially the Opium wars, unequal treaties, repeated imposed Versailles scale reparations & indemnities. The Extra-territorial concessions, foreign legations & imposed treaty ports.
The US got in the game of slaughter, rapine, etc, during the Boxer Rebellion.
The G7 & US funded & backed the various Warlords, & continued their intrigues even after the Japanese entered the picture in 1931, up until the Japs showed ’em the barrel & bayonet in Dec’41.
US armed, funded & supported the KMT through 1949, evacuated the remnants to Taiwan. Maintained a ~10,000 KMT terrorist army across the border in Myanmar(Burma), until ’72. Became the core of the Golden Triangle.
Fought the US/UN in the Korean War to defeat in only 100 days & then ultimately sustained ‘ceasefire'(No Armistice, no Peace Treaty), which the Chinese proudly called the ‘Resisting American aggression & Assisting Korea War’. Two of the three highest earning box office hits are epic war movies of the crushing defeat & retreat of US/UN forces around the Chongjin Lake(Chosen Reservoir), all the way back to the 38th Parallel.
Yep, of ~1.4Bn Chinese with deep traditions, culture & continuous civilization going back millennia … a couple Starbucks & isolated city quarantined consumer concessions, will sway them much like the Beatles & Levi’s Jeans did Russians to embrace Empire. Not.
Chinese companies make up 56% of the EV battery market, China’s BYD Co. is no2 behind Tesla re EV sales, yet, when, not if, China shutters Tesla’s Chinese plants ? Wouldn’t want to be holding Tesla stock …
2c is up.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 8:53 utc | 314

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 8:26 utc | 312
Indeed. Could not quarter in Moscow as not only were dwellings set fire, many, wooden, had been dismantled beforehand. All stores withdrawn, what was left was soiled/spoiled or poisoned. Limited safe potable water.
The death of the Grand Armee’ was the retreat back the way they came, with un-replenished, ever dwindling supplies, & no forage or living off the land or from the populace by looting(Napoleonic era logistics) across the scorched earth wasteland they had come, under relentless partisan & Cossack attacks & raids.
To detach from the main column in a foraging party was a form of suicide …

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 9:09 utc | 315

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 8:53 utc | 314
You seriously underestimate the impact of the west in China. For example.
https://stories.starbucks.com/press/2022/starbucks-opens-its-6000th-store-in-china/
As of September 2021, KFC has over 8,100 outlets over 1,600 cities across China. According to research by Millward Brown, KFC was the most powerful foreign .. Wikipedia.
May 12, 2021 … As of 2020, there are around 3,300 McDonald’s restaurants in China, 150 thousand employees. By 2017 McDonald’s had served over 1,3 billion …Wikipedia
Perhaps just as significant is the degree to which signage is displayed in Hanzi and in English. How many Chinese signs do you see in the USA or Europe?

Posted by: Walt | Nov 30 2022 9:17 utc | 316

John Mearsheimer:
And the fact that people are trying to sort of smear me because I talked to Viktor Orbán is hardly surprising in the context that we now operated, because people are really not that interested these days and talking about facts and logic. What they prefer to do is to smear people who they disagree with.

Now ain’t that the truth!
Really good interview today. John Mearsheimer: The West is playing Russian roulette.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBiV1h7Dm5E

“And my opinion is there’s no deal to be worked out. And both sides are going to fight this one out.” and ” We’re screwed.” and “There’s a non-trivial chance that nuclear weapons will be used here. ”

Suggests there very little likelihood for a negotiated diplomatic settlement in Ukraine. Increasing escalation by both sides seems most likely but still the future is quite unknowable. In that anything might happen.

” And the the two outcomes that we have to worry greatly about are one where the Russians use nuclear weapons. And two, where the United States comes into the fight, or the West comes into the fight, because then you have a great power war. The United States and Russia are actually fighting each other, and is Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence in the United States told the Senate this past spring, the most likely scenario for the Russians to use nuclear weapons is if NATO comes into the fight. So this is very dangerous.”

Posted by: SeanAU | Nov 30 2022 10:02 utc | 317

@ Walt | Nov 30 2022 9:17 utc | 316
Lived, worked, traveled extensively, throughout southern & south-east China periodically over two years, including business deals re design/manufacturing/export FOB, admittedly more than a decade ago. Under different life circumstances, opportunities, would have happily resided, if possible, in Shanghai. C’est la vie …
Didn’t realize there is a correlation between quantity of foreign take-away comfort food outlets & substantive US political/cultural/societal leverageable(sic) influence operations within China. Is there an authoritative study on this topic somewhere ?
Perhaps you may wish to address the other matters raised re relations with Empire going back centuries let alone since 2001, than numbers of Take-Away outlets in a population of ~1.4Bn ? Cheers.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 10:25 utc | 318

@ Walt | Nov 30 2022 9:17 utc | 316
Again, you seriously underestimated the impact of Sean’s previous sentences on the character of Sean’s concluding sentence: Idiotic and ahistorical conceits predicating a gross generalization.

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 30 2022 10:35 utc | 319

Outraged | Nov 30 2022 9:09 utc | 315
The retreat, the Cossacks very much fits with my understanding. Fast forward to the great patriotic war. The battle of Kursk. The decision to set up very deep defensive lines, destroy the attacking Germans then launch an offensive the moment the German offensive was defeated. Much debate about offensive or defensive but defensive it was.
Russians have military strategy in their genes. Darwin’s survival of the fittest.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 10:45 utc | 320

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 10:45 utc | 320
Very much so.
Clearly re Kursk & all the Strategic & Operational Maskirovka run directly out of Stavka in the 6 months leading up to Kursk was to assist & confirm what zee Germans wished to believe (confirmation bias) … that they could pull off yet another huge encirclement of a patently obvious & supposedly vulnerable exposed salient.
The Russian mastery was enticing them onto chosen prepared dangerous ground, with the full intention of bleeding them white, prior to then triggering their own pre-planned major offensive.
IMV zee Germans never stood a chance after Stalingrad, it was only a matter of time, the 3rd Reich was finished. Yet the Russians so deeply understood the Nazis thinking, desires, mindset, they led them by the nose to their doom at Kursk, & subsequently ultimately annihilated Army Group Center as a consequence … from then on it was simply counting down …
Not sure if we’ve discussed it before, yet highly recommend DR Lester Grau (former US Army Col) Senior Analyst for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, works. Published over 200 articles, books, studies, especially on the Russian Military, worked side-by-side with Russian scholars/researchers, access to archives, can read/write/speak Russian. Downloadable PDFs at FMSO, um, books are/were available at archive.org.
Translated works too, such as ‘When the Bear went over the Mountain'(Afghanistan ’79-’89).

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 11:27 utc | 321

@Outraged | 306
Nowhere did I write support for the Anglo MICIMATT. I see the CCP+ Putin more as its balancing –necessary opposite.
There are hundreds of other nations on Earth benefitting from these two slugging it out non-nuclearly. Even the normal populations of the US an PRC will benefit from diminished power of their own national overlords.

Posted by: Antonym | Nov 30 2022 11:50 utc | 322

Outraged | Nov 30 2022 11:27 utc | 321
I haven’t read DR Lester Grau so I’m likely a bit of a neanderthal but what has stood out for me in the last few yews is that the blitzkrieg was a new form of warfare nobody knew how to counter. It rolled over Europe in a matter of days and weeks. Operation Barbarossa, lots of stuff on Stalin’s purges but that was no different then Europe. Stalin the Georgian for whatever he was said not one step back and he never left Moscow. The blitzkrieg was stopped at Leningrad Stalingrad and Moscow. Through attrition they learned counter tactics. Heads rolled if commanders failed, often literally. Very much a meritocracy. Russian military of today was born in very harsh times.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 12:19 utc | 323

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s47elUKUZdk
Jimmy Dore explains in 10 minutes how Empires collapse by showing a series of alternating news talking heads viz on one hand increasing homelessness in US and on the other hand various billion dollar plus aid packages to Ukraine (most of which ends up in the pockets of US MIC corporations and their minions in DC whom we call Senators and such) . He also breaks down who the homeless are, ie 25% drug addicts, 25% disabled, 40% with jobs, 10% mentally impaired. Oh, and 70% overall increase since covid. And 70,000 in LA (?) area alone. Good piece.
One related question I have is about China’s seemingly much more effective but also far more draconian response: after these extended lock downs are there not massive small business failures as happened in US with less draconian approaches? If not, how come?
There are indeed differences between the two systems some of which have to do with traditional Chinese family culture etc but much having to do with organizational choices made recently.
Also, do they have homelessness in China? Are there tens of millions of them? Somehow I doubt it. If it is true that half the population has been lifted out of poverty since 2010, were most of the poor already housed? They don’t have cardboard shack favelas in China do they?
We get such minimalist information it’s hard to know what’s going on there. Like my question about the effect of the lock downs on small business operators and their families. I have been assuming there aren’t many such failures. If the US did the same thing the private sector would almost disappear overnight and homeless go to 50% of the population which is why it’s not an option there.
It would be so great if there were better reporting – on all sides.
(Greatly appreciate many of the comments here by those with knowledge from living in China.)

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 13:04 utc | 324

@ Peter AU1 | Nov 30 2022 12:19 utc | 323
You sell yourself short, mate.
Yes, indeed, very much a meritocracy. Russian military of today was born in very harsh times.
Darwinism of the battlefield. Hard lessons learnt well, never forgotten.
Nazi blitzkrieg was unsustainable due to too high, unsupportable/irreplaceable casualty rates of necessarily highly trained/experienced & specialist combined arms troops. Was not scalable doctrine nor strategy beyond small western European conflicts. German never had the industrial/economic/resource capacity to take on Russia. Let alone sufficient manpower. Common view ?
IMHO zee Germans best chance was to invade Spain post conquest of France & immediately seize Gibraltar, close the straits. Turn Med into an Italian Lake, cripple British ability to sustain a useful naval force in Med, do Rommel Africa Korps campaign, no 2nd El Alamein, close Suez, seize ME oilfields, prep re southern Russia front, demand Brits surrender. No Lend-lease for Russia via Persian Gulf/Iran. Warn off US. Recruit amongst conquered Europe, go for Russia on two fronts, E & Sth. Pure fictional fantasy, damned good thing the Nazi’s f*cked up, excellent tacticians/planners, lousy strategists.
@ Antonym | Nov 30 2022 11:50 utc | 322
CPC.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 13:33 utc | 325

@ Antonym | Nov 30 2022 11:50 utc | 322
CPC.
Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 13:33 utc | 325
Yes!
Like Brian Berletic (I think him) says, you can almost tell Western talking points are
on the way when CCP and Putin are talked about.
It’s the Communist Party of China, and it’s Russia, not Putin.

Posted by: waynorinorway | Nov 30 2022 13:54 utc | 326

This piece demonstrates how, contrary to many geopolitical talking points these days, we are already a one world civilization (with various national characteristics!).

While sperm count data for North America, Europe, and Oceania had already been subjected to rigorous analysis and discussion, the same was not true for data from Latin America, Asia and Africa.
The researchers have been able to show, for the first time, that men in Latin America, Asia, and Africa are also suffering from exactly the same “significant decline” in total sperm counts (TSC) and sperm concentration (SC) as their counterparts in the West. What’s more, the researchers have also shown that the decline in TSC and SC has been accelerating globally since 2000.
“Overall, we’re seeing a significant worldwide decline in sperm counts of over 50 percent in the past 46 years, a decline that has accelerated in recent years,” said Prof. Levine in a media release to accompany the study.
“Our findings serve as a canary in a coal mine. We have a serious problem on our hands that, if not mitigated, could threaten mankind’s survival. We urgently call for global action to promote healthier environments for all species and reduce exposures and behaviors that threaten our reproductive health,” Levine adds.
Professor Shanna Swan, one of the co-authors of the research, has made headlines in the last year with her new book Count Down, in which she predicts an imminent “spermageddon” scenario, wherein by 2050, almost zer0-level sperm counts will lead to existential issues for humankind. The median man could have a sperm count of zero, meaning that one half of all men will produce no sperm at all, and the other half will produce so few as to be functionally infertile.
Although the study does not specifically investigate the causes of this decline in sperm counts outside the Western world, the authors are in no doubt that “lifestyle choices and chemicals in the environment” are playing an important role. These are precisely the causes Professor Swan identifies in her new book.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2022/11/29/spermageddon-humanity-may-be-functionality-infertile-by-2050-new-study-warns/
==================================
Earlier research in Western nations had already been showing alarming drops in sperm count however such studies had not been done in Asia, for example. Now they have and they show essentially the same results.
Not only is this alarming in itself – far more important an issue than climate change for example – but also it demonstrates how the entire world is essentially a unified civilization at this point. I do not mean to suggest that there are not valid reasons for any current struggles, but I do think the differences between various cultures – though important and definitely worth preserving and honoring – are not as structurally important as often portrayed.
China, for example, has very different history and culture compared to Europe, however much that is going on there is essentially identical to all prior post industrial revolution developments. China, as the latest big entrant, is of course building the most modern version, but it’s essentially the same thing: massive urban, technology-driven materialist progress. In his recent speeches, Xi often emphasizes modernization as a key driving principle. Am not saying this is bad – though it is materialism-driven, clearly – but it’s nothing new or different.
Moreover, as the global sperm count problem shows, we are all in this together. This is a world-wide problem because, like it or not, we are now in an essentially one world civilization paradigm.
Multipolarity sounds about right to me. But it will still be in a ‘one world’ or ‘global’ context so there will always be the risk of over-centralization which always leads to bad ends no matter what ideology or nation or race or consortium or soviet or whatever is at the helm.

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 14:18 utc | 327

Outraged@325 elaborates a fantasy war for the Nazis, which may be merely self-entertainment with a puzzle or deeply heartfelt wishes. But whichever the conclusion the Nazis really were lousy strategists is only as strong as the premises and logic of the scenario. Hitler very much wanted to seize Gibraltar and strongly pressured Franco to join the war. Unsurprisingly in my view, having won one war and having much internal violence and repression still to commit, Franco was no interested in gambling his victory on behalf of a mere ideological confrere, especially one that was more ostentatiously “modern” than Roman Catholic.
To continue, the notion that Rommel could have taken Egypt if supported is very plausible indeed. But the facts of geography suggests very much that Rommel going from Egypt to Iran isn’t so obvious. Yes, Alexander did it, but, hey, Alexander, right? His successors couldn’t hold his empire together. The Persians did it but over the years they didn’t find it so easy even to keep Egypt in line, much less win at Marathon and Salamis and Plataea. The Romans never found it so simple to expand it. Bonaparte couldn’t. In WWI, Allenby did manage to get to…Jerusalem. The English didn’t do so much better in invading north through the imaginary soft underbelly of Europe, neither in Italy nor Germany. The Germans also tried to get Turkey to join in, which would have been more likely to have genuinely helped. They wouldn’t.
The real blunting of the first great German offensive against the USSR was defeated by fall 1941. After that point, the superior numbers and industrial base and resource base left the Germans facing ultimate defeat, which ultimately came. Lend-Lease did not play the decisive role in defeating Germany and I think at this point we should conclude no one is genuinely arguing in good faith otherwise. So far as “demanding” the Brits surrender is concerned, it takes two to make peace. The English, despite the powerful sympathies with fascism at the top, weren’t. It was a multipolar world back then, which means the Great Powers (the multiples poles in multipolarity) were always struggling with each other. That’s what multipolarity really is, not the silly catchphrase so popular in some quarters. The invasion of England could have driven the English to concede, but that too was beyond German powers.
My suggestion is that the great failure of German strategists (there was no uniquely Nazi foreign policy or military doctrine, aside from wasting resources on mass murder) was then and still is shared with very many people, especially political conservatives: The belief that Communism didn’t work. They thought the Soviets were ideological fanatics undermining civilization itself with their crazy ideas and couldn’t run a modern society, much less fight. The modern belief that the Red Army was really the Tsar’s army in humiliating disguise, and that what won the war, which seems to be what the current leadership of the Russian armed forces believe is false. They are the enemies of the Red Army and claims to the heritage of the Red Army is like a man wearing stolen medals. The notioin the Russian people *despite* the incubus of Communism defeated the Germans also seems to be widespread. It is no better founded. There is no such thing as a collective soul nor is spirit a cause. Social phenomena resembling these metaphysical idealizations, real things like social cohesion and morale are not independent causes. And they are real precisely because they arise from the experience of very material lives of many people, not because of golden words working on individual minds.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Nov 30 2022 14:23 utc | 328

@ steven t johnson | Nov 30 2022 14:23 utc | 328
Pure fictional fantasy, damned good thing the Nazi’s f*cked up, excellent tacticians/planners, lousy strategists.
Limited comprehension skills or intentionally obtuse ? Re-read the above. NSDAP, Nazi’s, Neo-Nazi’s, OUN-Banderite-Nazi’s are IMV abhorrent, inhuman scum. Clear ?
Da Fuehrer tried to convince Franco, but was all into his Ideology bullshit & couldn’t resolve turning on the fellow fascist he helped put in power. Admiral Canaris & his Dept heads & senior staff/officers(were ultimately hung by meat-hooks, filmed for AH’s private saloon viewing pleasure) running Abwehr, secretly informed Franco of AH’s plans ans instructed him precisely what to demand, of which it would be impossible for AH to provide nor accept.
With Gibraltar captured, the British Navy would not have been able to sustain it’s Med fleet. No severing of Afrika Korps logistics. The pathetic in-situ Brits coup’ed Iraq to seize the oil wells, Rommel’s unopposed AK couldn’t ? Hah.
Turkeys neutrality calculus changes dramatically re its interests re the Med becoming an Italian Lake & the Royal Navy withdrawing or being sunk. Italian Navy able to unite with Kriegsmarine re UK invasion, same with Italian AirForce,. UK imports cut by 50% before the real U-Boat campaign starts, confined to the atlantic. OP Sealion becomes eminently viable as UK disarmed & weakened stands alone.
No US landings in Nth Africa, No Op Torch, No Sicily or Anzio/Italian campaigns. No D-Day, no bombing campaigns on Germany, no second front, more German forces deployed to E front, post UK invasion/surrender.
Gibraltar was the ‘Jesus Nut’.
Praise be Dog, Admiral Canaris & associates as Head of German Military Intelligence spent the majority of the War undermining the Nazi’s every move, especially, crucially, Gibraltar. And were willing to pay the ultimate price.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 15:39 utc | 329

Outraged @300–
An excellent reminder, but the timeline really needs to be extended further back to Southern Expansionism, the quest for Texas and then Polk’s contrived war with Mexico to steal fully half its lands which happened to contain trillions of dollars in resources. He doesn’t reveal the gory, but Bernard De Voto’s trilogy about the birth and early “Course” of the Outlaw US Empire remains an excellent work that too few have read. Additional gems are to be mined from Hudson’s America’s Protectionist Takeoff, 1815-1914, particularly the initial universities, their sponsors, ideologies and influence on policy. Few today know that the founding Charters of Virginia and Pennsylvania ceded them all land between the Atlantic and Pacific, thus revealing the English Crown’s plans for North America–All was to be England’s. Jefferson and others merely adopted their parents’s ambitions, although King George III wasn’t as genocidally minded as Jefferson and crew.
The US Civil & Indian Wars revealed much about the nature of how Others would be treated. The directors of the Spaghetti Westerns tried to connect the lust for Plunder with its associated violence and ruthlessness. The RoW often understood while the American mind never seemed to make the connections. And to really understand the why one must dig into English history beginning with Enclosure and how the masses were viewed by Royalty from roughly 1450 onwards, particularly Bacon’s promotion of genocide (published in a book!) to be waged against Englanders, Scots, Welsh, and Irish. Little wonder that soon afterwards the English Civil War commenced.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 30 2022 17:35 utc | 330

Outraged @329–
It’s interesting when people who think they know so much reveal just how little they know.
/////
Escobar’s on a roll, “The Global South births a new game-changing payment system”, and alerts us to the critical meetings occurring in December.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 30 2022 17:55 utc | 331

Looks like he’s been reading you, karlov1!

Slowly but surely, what is emerging is the Big Picture of an irretrievably fractured world featuring a dual trade/circulation system: one will be revolving around the remnants of the dollar system, the other is being built centered on the association of BRICS, EAEU, and SCO.
Pushing further on down the road, the recent pathetic metaphor coined by a tawdry Eurocrat boss: the “jungle” is breaking away from the “garden” with a vengeance. May the fracture persist, as a new international payment system – and then a new currency – will aim to halt for good the western-centric Age of Plunder.

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 30 2022 18:17 utc | 332

@ karlof1 | Nov 30 2022 17:35 utc | 330
All very true, concur previous actions policies, carrying on the crowns former objectives & always the rapine of the ‘currently’, at the moment, nominated/targeted ‘Other’.
Yet the Spanish-American, Phillipine-American War is the pivot point from informal to publicly declared & accepted formalization of a codified foreign policy of, Imperialism.
Was the moment when ‘Foreign’ expansionism & exceptionalism justifying Imperialism & rapine of the ‘Others’ for profit & Hegemony was openly & officially declared, strenuously debated & fought against for years, yet ultimately accepted, & became policy of the State. Along with a concerted public/social effort rally the general citizenry, the Sons & Daughters of American Revolution, to uphold the ‘public’ objectives, principles & tenets of the Revolution & War of Independence to Foreign policy also. Alas, sadly we know the result.
Same timeline we Joined the G7 Imperialists re the Boxer Rebellion, and what followed on from that re China & Asia …
@ Impostor | Nov 30 2022 17:55 utc | 331
Obvious pathetic impostor. Yawn.

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 30 2022 23:57 utc | 333