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November 11, 2022
Si tacuisses, …

Russian retreat from Kherson city sets stage for more hard combat
Washington Post – Nov 10, 2022

U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the western bank of the river and that it would take time for them to withdraw. But he, too, saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said.

“This won’t take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.”

—

The Ministry of Defense reported on the completion of the withdrawal of troops from Kherson
Kommersant (machine translation) – Nov 11, 2022

The Ministry of Defense reported that at 5:00 Moscow time, the transfer of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper was completed. As the agency clarifies, not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank.

The department reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried at night to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. River crossings were hit five times by HIMARS rockets.

“All Russian military personnel crossed over, no losses of personnel, weapons, equipment and materiel of the Russian group were allowed,” the Ministry of Defense said.

Posted by b on November 11, 2022 at 10:29 UTC | Permalink
Comments

Re: Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 21

I think a big part of the US Russia deal is that US want to redirect weapons flow from Ukraine to Taiwan. I think it was Ukraine channels said November 1 is the cutoff date. Plenty of smoke covering the deal to try and keep the Europeans in the fight.
Time now for Rand Corp’s 2015 paper “War with China – Thinking through the unthinkable”.

Interesting.
If Russia cuts a deal with the US that allows the US to ramp up supplies to Taiwan to antagonise China – how exactly would the Chinese regard such a Russian action?
I’d suspect the Chinese would not be best pleased.
I’d suspect the Chinese would rightly be asking the Russians – why haven’t you defeated and destroyed Ukraine and why are you cutting deals with the USA to undermine OUR security?
And – if you needed our help to defeat Ukraine (backed by NATO) – why didn’t you ask for it instead of pretending you didn’t need it?
In other words – I doubt that be much pleased about any of what you’re suggesting.

Posted by: Julian | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 101

The more I think about what may have caused the Russian retreat from Kherson & north Dnieper river, the more I believe this can’t be a sole Russian decision due to strategy/logistics/whatever.
It just don’t make sense with, maybe difficult, but enough supplies for Kherson troops (remember for example the Deir-Ez-Zor siege in Syria in comparison, the SAA forces managed to keep the city for 3 years in a much worse position), and the apparent stalemate with heavy Ukrainian losses according to the on-the-ground sources. Yes, the famous dam may be sabotaged at any moment. But Ukraine had that opportunity for months, and it didn’t. And it’s been reported Russian army and the land itself was better prepared for that now. And that salient had its strategic importance, as a distraction for the Ukrainian forces.
I think the recent NATO buildup across Russian border and USA nuclear bombers/submarines activity are somehow related. This may be the result of an ultimatum from USA/NATO: either you agree to a ceasefire, or we start a full-scale war against you, and nuclear bomb Moscow & St. Petersburg. And Russia, given that battle is not (yet) existential, just gave up in exchange for a future “Minsk III” that gives it a bit of relief regarding NATO expansion & maybe an embargo lift. This would give Russia time to fix the SMO mistakes and truly build up its forces for the next hotspot.
We’re missing a lot of information regarding everything. So the text above is only a guess. But it’s the most logical analysis for me at the moment.

Posted by: Igor | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 102

You know the way some folk blame Gorbachev and Yeltsin for destroying Russia? I sometimes think they destroyed the USA even more. Russia has pretty well recovered. But by depriving the USA of an enemy they seem to have driven it into insanity. A divided insanity.
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Nov 11 2022 14:40 utc | 107

Russia hasn’t really recovered.
It lost most of its defensible borders and is now extremely vulnerable to attacks, as we are currently seeing. And it lost half of its population and its industrial base, then underwent its own process of deindustrialization — although perhaps not as extreme as some other places, it still means that the total real power of the state, once accounting for the territorial losses, shrunk by 60-70% or more.
And this is why we have a war — the USSR would never, ever have been attacked by the US like that. Deterrence worked.
Yeah, the US was left without an enemy and went suicidal because of that. But that also had the effect of making it possible for it try to fight Russia, even if it’s through a proxy for now.
We were effectively on the path towards WW3 from the moment the USSR fell apart. Few realized it at the time but in retrospect it is quite clear.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 14:48 utc | 103

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 11 2022 12:29 utc | 53
Lol! Brilliant! And, true …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 14:50 utc | 104

I think the recent NATO buildup across Russian border and USA nuclear bombers/submarines activity are somehow related. This may be the result of an ultimatum from USA/NATO: either you agree to a ceasefire, or we start a full-scale war against you, and nuclear bomb Moscow & St. Petersburg. And Russia, given that battle is not (yet) existential, just gave up in exchange for a future “Minsk III” that gives it a bit of relief regarding NATO expansion & maybe an embargo lift. This would give Russia time to fix the SMO mistakes and truly build up its forces for the next hotspot.
We’re missing a lot of information regarding everything. So the text above is only a guess. But it’s the most logical analysis for me at the moment.
Posted by: Igor | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 110

That is what I have been thinking about too.
The problem is the bluff has to be called at some point or Crimea and Kaliningrad are next, and then it will only continue from there.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 14:51 utc | 105

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 14:38 utc | 106
UK will give them a lot of small boats and they are making their own. Without controlling Kherson, it’s pretty much guaranteed UAF will attempt to make landings at Kinburn spit, and the other pensisula SW of it and other areas west of Kherson, on the south bank of Dnieper.
On the other hand, if UAF deploys a lot to other areas, they won’t be strong enough to attempt to make frontal river attack at the west end of Dnieper.
All bets are on that the next big thing will be Zaporizhe. The British “planners” controlling UAF still want to make a push from Zaporizhe towards Melitopol, to cut the land bridge. The original British idea is that they would have Kherson and make pincer movement from Zaporizhe, which eventually leads to Crimea. UAF will redeploy a lot more to Zaporizhe.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 14:51 utc | 106

Fact is we just don’t know the full picture,it doesn’t sound good for the Russians we shall wait and see,although some have made good points about the power of the Russian armed forces,for whatever reason all the airports where Nato weapons are being flown into are still standing,same with the rail system and the Ukrainian/Noto command centers.

Posted by: Englishman | Nov 11 2022 14:52 utc | 107

Based on all the available evidence here is the most probable scenario :
Posted by: Micron | Nov 11 2022 14:30 utc | 102
ALL the available evidence? Whoa dude. You forgot a few:
– that it’s Ukraine that’s force conscripting everyone down to pregnant girls now, not Russia,
– Russia’s >80 000 volunteers,
– the fact that no matter what the Nato jews do, they can’t get Russia to show any of its modern weapons, just like in Syria,
– that it’s only Russia’s reluctance and kindness that stops it flattening Ukraine’s infrastructure and cities,
– the billions of weekly blood money transfusion from the west, through Ukraine, to the western oligarchs, not to mention the free flow of military grade weaponry to criminals in Europe, and the non-stop fresh organ refrigerator flights from Ukraine to Israel.
As for your “as if repeating an unproven claim 1000 times will make it true somehow,” like Shakespeare said, the lady doth project too much.

Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 14:53 utc | 108

Have you ever considered the possibility that Russian troops may blow up Nova Kakhovka Dam instead? After all, that was one of the Russian military concerns which precipitated this withdrawal.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Nov 11 2022 13:34 utc | 79

The dam feeds the canal (Pivnichno-Kryms’kyi Channel) which supplies Crimea with much of its water. Which is why the eastern 2/3 of the Kherson Oblast was of such strategic importance to the Russians. Ukraine had cut off the flow of water tears ago.
Russia is not going to blow up the dam. Ukraine plus allies may blow up the dam and claim Russians did it. Zelensky said as much yesterday.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 14:53 utc | 109

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 14:53 utc | 118
If UAF makes some offer tempting enough, like crossing with say 10k troops, it might be worth to blow the dam to sweep them all into the sea. Infrastructure can be built back later, men cannot, so easily.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 14:57 utc | 110

Russia must again attack the energy infrastructure in Ukraine.
That is the only way to victory.
Otherwise Russia shall be defeated soon.

Posted by: marnix | Nov 11 2022 14:57 utc | 111

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/11/10/will-a-russian-kherson-exit-create-the-right-facts-on-the-ground/
As usual, so many here don’t see the possible big picture. Milley talks diplomacy. Hungary talks ceasefire. These are (finally) cracks in the ice.
How does Russia manage a Ukraine that won’t ( and politically can’t) negotiate? They quietly adjust borders for a future ceasefire that has some chance of being stable – as with Kherson and the Zap nuke plant. The goal is to avoid being drained as the West wishes. Donbass will be tougher to adjust that way.
Once the best contact lines are set, there will likely be more calls for ceasefire. This way Ukraine remains defiant and refuses to accept the borders but must stop fighting. How did the Korean War end? Likewise North and South Vietnam. To a degree, East and West Germany, too. It seems to be the American way.
Leverage against Ukraine will exist because they need to rebuild infrastructure – esp. electricity.
The big obstacle is that Russia must move on Donbass. Pavlovka is a start. Overall, Russia for the win.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 11 2022 15:00 utc | 112

Guy L’Strange @107
Well said that man !
This war started by the west, un-provoked to steal resources, remove competition and gain world dominance.
Its going no where, the west cant possable win.
The flaw now is clear to see.
If you start off on a grandiose adventure at least plan what a sucssefull outcome looks like.
So what is this plan from the west…
Complete capitulation of the Russian Federation ?
Never going to happen.
At what cost to the west (financial and human)
Its all just western cloud cookoo land, Hollywood fantasie.
UK US need to just pack up and go home.
End of…

Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 11 2022 15:01 utc | 113

The NATO trolls here as usual, are talking through their hats; this is not a military defeat for Russia, but there are politically negative effects. As I mentioned on the last thread (comment 692), the way to understand this withdrawal is to compare it with the German withdrawal to the Hindenburg Line (Siegfriedstellung) in February-March 1917. It’s really very close in causes, consequences, and effects. There’s a lengthy Wiki article on the Hindenburg Line, which explains most of it.

Posted by: laguerre | Nov 11 2022 15:02 utc | 114

Tbx | Nov 11 2022 14:37 utc | 105
Yes, general Baldie seems to have a fixation on what he calls defense, but with zero attacks. Just sit and watch, if there’s a small attack (50-80 soldiers) he fights, otherwise he orders retreat with losses. Put blame on previous generals and move all efforts out of his office to political side.
If you exclude those days where he attacked parts of the power grid with drones (even that was politically forced by Ukr attacks, not the result of a plan), there are much less strikes. Maybe it is and it’s not reported, but it seems the operation is on pause with the exception of some isolated groups like Kaskad, I don’t remember their name exactly. The big question now is if they’re going to run from Zap.

Posted by: rk | Nov 11 2022 15:02 utc | 115

@73
You confuse Kherson with Kherson city. The left bank of the river is still Kherson.

Posted by: Pancho Plail | Nov 11 2022 15:10 utc | 116

As we suspected the Western and Ukrainian media are making a lot of noise via propaganda on this, they have to for they haven’t had much to shout about since the conflict began, and a change of position isn’t retreat, if it is a safer position for your forces that the one you left.
Before the move by the RF, we thought Ukrainian force would blow the dam with missiles, now the Western media are claiming that the RF might blow the dam with missiles. It was important that the RF evacuated the civilians from Kherson for we know that the Ukrainian forces have committed terrible warcrimes against civilians in this conflict.
Options open to the RF with Kherson in mind, well prolonged shelling from the safer position of Kherson is always an option, paying special attention to cutting off supply routes using air superiority.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Nov 11 2022 15:10 utc | 117

Is not Kherson downstream of a large dam. I would think a breach of that dam would have a negative effect on the troops stationed in Kherson.

Posted by: Aux1Aux2 | Nov 11 2022 15:11 utc | 118

The degradation of the economic power of the NATO countries is an indispensable part of the planning of the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation. Just my opinion which may be totally wrong 🙂
Posted by: Sanjin | Nov 11 2022 13:12 utc | 72
I think it’s not just an ‘indispensable part’ but more like the over-riding dynamic of which the Ukraine kinetics are an indispensable part. And if this indeed is a war of attrition, that attrition is not so much in terms of pieces and troops in the field, but national and international economic and political conditions.
It is fairly obvious to all that the Russian state is pretty healthy and united with positive outlooks for the future whereas many Western nations are in very different condition, with internal discord, doubt, economic weakness and fundamental malaise all round. If you had to bet on which team would win a war of attrition it’s a no-brainer.
That being the case, RF has time on her side. The longer this goes on with world supply chains being disrupted (principally by Chinese lock-downs and the recent sanctions) the weaker the Western side will become. Presumably Russia and China will take hits as well, although the last figures I seem to recall viz China were that they were still growing, just less than desired, but in that axis they are all restructuring many of their manufacturing and other industries to use the sanctions as a way to strengthen their own resilience and build new trading partnerships. Seems to have been going extremely well since March, no?
Now: is the West doing the same? Are their alliance flourishing, is their industrial base expanding? Seems like the opposite.
So the main arena of attrition is not on Ukraine territory, although all the weapons being chewed up there is certainly part of it, reducing the West’s immediate supply (though I suspect both sides are withholding their best stuff).
Withdrawing from Kherson probably has no relevance one way or another in terms of the wider arena of attrition. If as some say that is a threat to Crimean water supply, I guess that’s pretty serious, but if so RF will repel borders. Indeed, it remains to be seen if Ukraine even wants to go into Kherson because of terrible butcher’s bill. How long can they keep doing that? I suspect they are almost played out and are good for only desperation moves – like trying to drown tens of thousands or blow up nuclear plants.
But like you will say ‘just my opinion, might be totally wrong! :)’

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 15:13 utc | 119

Hungary warns about EU role in Ukraine

“The voice of those who want peace is much quieter than the voice of those who just increase tensions,” Orban said of Western policy on Ukraine.
“We in the EU are on a spiral of escalation. We first delivered non-lethal military aid, then we started sending lethal weapons, now we are training the Ukrainian troops in European territory. In the next few days we will decide whether to bankroll the Ukrainian economy,” he explained.

https://swentr.site/news/566335-orban-eu-escalation-spiral/
Time for some soros/neoliberal/faux-leftists here to stop smearing Orban.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 15:15 utc | 120

i almost wish MOA could trade some of its NATO trolls to Caitlin Johnstone for some of the get rich quick on the internet bots. it would at least make for a change of pace

Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 11 2022 15:16 utc | 121

Everyone seems to have forgotten the large accumulation of forces north west of Kharkiv. They are there for a reason and are well placed for an offensive along the east bank of the Dnieper once the bridges have been blown by a few Kinzal strikes, or even high level conventional bombing from some of Russia’s strategic bombers. Do you think there is a high concentration of
AA defence in northern Ukraine?

Posted by: Pancho Plail | Nov 11 2022 15:16 utc | 122

Igor | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 110
I think you’re right about being able to hold the Kherson bridgehead even if the dam was blown. The flooding would only last a few days to a week at most, depending on how much damage was done to the dam. I believe US is about to pull its support for Ukraine specially in terms of weapons supplies. There had been articles in US media in the preceding weeks about sending the limited US weapon supply to Taiwan. I think the deal involves Russia giving up the bridgehead which gives the west a propaganda win, then the US cutting weapons supplies which will be redirected to Taiwan and then standing back while Russia clears the Donbas.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 15:17 utc | 123

Posted by: Micron | Nov 11 2022 14:30 utc | 102
Posted by: Otto von Weiss | Nov 11 2022 15:05 utc | 126
One sock puppet hand talking to the other …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 15:11 utc | 131
Yep. Like I said, the intelligence of a certain group of people is far overrated.
Otto = just as “german” as Klaus Schwab
von = the only truthful part, after all they believe they’re superior to us goyim
Weiss = as “white” as any khazar

Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 15:18 utc | 124

Russia and their allies (who?) have nor the time nor economy on their side. US,EU can support Ukraine with high tech weapon and cash for decades if they want, Russia seems already depleted on both and thus fail and fail again. You can tell yourself differently but reality dont care about your denialist feelings.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 13:04 utc | 70
The DPR. LPR, and Russia are the allies in this conflict, which also included the Wagner PMC. Much of the dying in the field are most likely not Russian troops, but those of the LPR, DPR and Wagner.
The US, EU and their hangers-on can hardly sustain themselves, and that includes their military. You’d know that, if you’d listened to the saner voices out there, or indeed read what the US 7 NATO military people actually tell their politicians. The latter offer(-ed) old and redundant Soviet time armory to Ukraine, and a few bits and pieces of more up to date stuff (like M117s … ), plus some HIMARS or PHz 2000s, yet in small numbers and ever increasing supply shortages. The frontline is in the East of Ukraine and all of Ukraine is under firing range of allied missiles. On the other side, Russia has a free supply of anything they want … and if that cannot be sustained, troops will retreat. As happened in Kherson.
Russia is hardly depleeted in anything, and sure not in military personnel or weaponry. In case you forgot it: it is some 25 % of the Russian army involved in this conflict, i.e. the western sector, and most of that is not even participating in the war, as its job is to secure / defend the whole western line of Russia’s defenses.
I find it rather strange that someone thinks Russia, who has all it needs for decades to come, is within months of defeat. For any of these mental cases, a quick look at the map is required, just to grasp again what sort of country Russia actualy is.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 11 2022 15:18 utc | 125

The bottom line of Kherson is. It was a “nice to have” but redundant bridgehead for Russians, but the fact is, in Kherson and surrounding country, within the expanded bridgehead which supplying can be compared to sucking air through a straw – they were just defending. UAF were hellbent since late August to throw everything on Kherson because the BRITISH advisors wanted it.
There was no chance of attacking in Kherson bridgehead so it was redundant. Now the British advisors want Zaporizhe. There is no similar supply bottlenecks (few bridge chokepoints) so it should not have similar problems as Kherson, if Russians redeploy sufficiently from Kherson to beat off ukie attacks.
Simultaneous advance from Pavlovka and Ugledar west, will flank Zaporizhe from 3 sides (south, east and southwest), while removing UAF grouping from SW of Donetsk.

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 15:20 utc | 126

RUSSIA BADLY NEEDS CHINA TO TAKE TAIWAN NOW ASAP!
Posted by: PAPAPA | Nov 11 2022 14:12 utc | 95
Don’t worry, PAPAPA! Wars of attrition take time and patience. Once we see the other sides running out of EXCESSIVE USE OF CAPITAL LETTERS then we’ll know things are getting closer to the end. UNTIL THEN WE JUST HAVE TO HOLD ON!!!!!!!

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 15:21 utc | 127

Once the best contact lines are set, there will likely be more calls for ceasefire. This way Ukraine remains defiant and refuses to accept the borders but must stop fighting. How did the Korean War end? Likewise North and South Vietnam. To a degree, East and West Germany, too. It seems to be the American way.
Leverage against Ukraine will exist because they need to rebuild infrastructure – esp. electricity.
The big obstacle is that Russia must move on Donbass. Pavlovka is a start. Overall, Russia for the win.
Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 11 2022 15:00 utc | 121

This is delusional.
The war started because of the loss of strategic buffer between NATO and Russia, which very soon would have meant the US having a decapitating first strike capability by locating nukes in Kharkov, Sumy and Chernigov.
And because in Ukraine you had ethnically Russian people being turned into militantly Russophobic Nazis. After all the millions of victims in WW2…
Current line of contact, or even current LOC + Donbass in full, doesn’t solve any of those problems for Russia and is thus a major defeat.

Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 15:23 utc | 128

The withdrawal from Kherson city is a political defeat for Putin personally, because a couple of weeks earlier, he allowed accession of Kherson into Russia. Already at that point, the military must have told him what is now happening. I cant see the reasoning to move on anyway. Militarily, the withdrawal was sound, if you cannot use the position to move on Nikolaev and Odessa. Then the bridgehead is useless. I read tons of ppl in the comments who only see the political blunder and the loss of territory as a sign that the Russian are beaten militarily. What are the supporting facts for that? Anybody who makes these claims should come with evidence.
Economically, it doesnt matter that Russia is way bigger than Ukraine, because Ukraine is being supported by NATO no matter the costs, at least it seems. But Ukraine needs its male population to staff the equipment. And in this regard, Ukraine simply cant compete with Russia. The fact alone that Ukraine has had 8 waves of mobilization, Russia just one should tell you something about the current state of the war. If the current war goes on on its trajectory, all Ukrainian males will be dead and many more Russian males as well, but enough Russian males will still be there to take Kiev. At that point, NATO has to feed its own soldiers into the meat grinder, because there wont be enough Ukrainians left. And at that point, it will either be a direct war NATO vs. Russia, or a Russian victory. That is the trajectory of this war.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 15:24 utc | 129

reply to 102
You state so much that is distorted or false it’s difficult to correct it all.
Ukraine is generally incapable of any meaningful offensives. This is easily seen by the daily reports of various probes that waste troops and armor. They simply can’t sustain a reasonable punch through. It’s immoral to witness this pointless loss of life daily.
Second, the composition of their forces is defensive at best. Note the half century T-64’s and the use of pickup trucks, reported destroyed daily. They are stuck with not enough ammo and too many different kinds/sizes for the NATO gifts.
Ukraine was 4th worst on earth for population loss before the war. About a third are pensioners ( Russia isn’t greatly better but is bigger). Now, they threaten EU with millions of refugees – more. They have lost already and all the more so if Europe abandons them ( note how humanitarian concern about Libya evaporated after they killed Khadaffi).
Russia successfully mobilized overall ( 300K approx). Ukraine has to troll for another 100K to fill depleted ranks.
Russia has fuel, heat, food, electricity and working rail in relative abundance. Ukraine doesn’t by their own admissions.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 11 2022 15:26 utc | 130

Julian | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 108

I’d suspect the Chinese would not be best pleased.

These are sub-matters. It’s hard to imagine anything derailing the overall agreement among the ‘global south’ nations including Russia & China to break away from the US & its vassals and to forge their own way. They won’t start disputes between themselves to jeopardize that.

Posted by: johnR | Nov 11 2022 15:26 utc | 131

A few reflections about the melancholy debacle at Kherson, for whatever they’re worth:
(1) I finally found Pepe Escorer’s report of a possible deal between the US and Russia to withdraw from Kherson in exchange for an armistice (which it is at best). Escobar sees great thing for Russia afterwards with the onset of “General Winter” and (by implication) the Russian mobilization: https://www.unz.com/pescobar/sun-tzu-walks-into-a-kherson-bar/ .
(2) Searching for Escobar I came across this more pessimistic analysis in Asia Times, which strikes me as more likely, at least in the short term. (In the long term we’ll all be dead.)
https://asiatimes.com/2022/11/kherson-retreat-a-decisive-russian-defeat/
(3) I couldn’t find any confirmation anywhere, US, Russian Ukrainian, that a deal had indeed been made. So I wonder if this might have been like the bait-and-switch in April, reported by Putin himself, where the Russians and Ukrainians had agreed in Turkey to an armistice n the south (as I understand it), in return for the Russians removing their troops around Kiev, Chernobyl, and Sumy. After which the Ukrainians backed out. One might see Jacob Jeremiah Sullivan’s fine hand in this; involved both times. The current saying is that the US is agreement incapable (nedgovorsposobny); but I think a better term is perfidious: we have no trouble making agreements we don’t intend to keep.
(4) Tass/English reports today that the Kherson withdrawal was approved by Shoigu at the request of General Sorovikin. The Wikipedia article on Surovikin indicates that he has ben under criminal investigation several times in his military career, plus rejection as head of the Military Police because of his questionable record: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Surovikin . While not necessarily disqualifying in a successful general, it could suggest he’s willing and able to cut corners when necessary for his own benefit. My initial reaction to the withdrawal, and that of other observers, was that there was treason there somewhere.
(5) I’ve been re-reading Konstatin Simonov’s great novel “The Living and the Dead” about Barbarossa (recommended by Putin himself) — in English; my Russian isn’t that good. I’ve just come to the point where the protagonist Svintsov, wounded in the hospital, hears Stalin’s famous July 3rd speech beginning “My friends.” Svintsov reflects about Stalin afterward (published in 1975):
“He was loved many ways: with devotion and with reservations, with admiration and with apprehension. Sometimes he was not loved at all. But no one doubted his courage and iron will. And at this moment, these two qualities seemed the most essential in a man who was the leader of a country at war.”
— Putin is no Stalin.

Posted by: Seward | Nov 11 2022 15:32 utc | 132

Talking about protracted wars of attrition.
EU: shut down their blackrock-owned fertiliser production already long before Ukraine, have all the legal and law enforcement machinery carefully in place to starve everyone to death in a matter of days
US: Gates and Monsanto buy all the land, hundreds of food production facilities and storage warehouses just magically burn, tech companies categorise gardeners and food canners as terrorists
Netherlands: intends to seize and close farms by the hundreds each year
Latvia (or Lithuania): the first thing they did when “covid” started was to hurriedly tape off the gardening and seed sections of all stores (and only those sections), even to the vaccinated
Russia: gives you land for free if you want to use it to grow food

Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 15:32 utc | 133

reply to 129
You really didn’t answer the points I made.
Their hatred of Russia means little if they lack the strength to cross rivers and attack fortifications in offensives. As for nuclear weapons in Ukraine, we’ll see. The US has shown some restraint in this mess. Russia arranges, Ukraine gets stuck with it.
Creating partitioned nations ( as the US does), encourages weapon sales. North and South Ukraine would have plenty of precedent.

Posted by: Eighthman | Nov 11 2022 15:36 utc | 134

Dima at the Military Summary channel cites Russian reports (at 56”) that HIMARS are under Western control and have been disabled (whether the Ukies like it or not) , allowing the Russians to retreat unmolested from Kherson, avoiding a slaughter.
https://rumble.com/v1tcpas-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-10.11.2022.html
This follows other rumors/ reports that a Grand Agreement is being negotiated between Russia and the US to resolve the Ukrainian War. For the moment events seem to bolster this narrative. If so, it’s amazing and bizarre, and filled with many gaps. Did the Kremlin really threaten to go nuclear if no deal was reached, totally without the Ukrainians? Who knows?

Posted by: posa | Nov 11 2022 15:36 utc | 135

CM of Berlin
If Ukraine were so weak as you imagine, how come then Russia is the one retreating, for months? When was the last russian offensive? Like mid summer, like 4 months back! Compare that with Ukraine that have carried out an offensive for about as much time. How come if they are so allegedly weak?
So how come Ukraine, as you claim are so weak are still able to win on the battlfield? Obviously Ukraine is not weak nor depleted in money nor weapons. Have you missed that west keep giving, for free, weapons and cash to Ukraine right at this moment?
EU/US/Nato produce more weapons than Russia, EU,/US/NATO produce more money than Russia. Obviously Russia cannot withstand such an enemy in the long run – it is a matter of fact.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 15:38 utc | 136

Posted by: posa | Nov 11 2022 15:36 utc | 136
Idk of Himars launchers, but it was stated in reports and MOD that ukies tried attacking the bridge and pontoon bridges on 5 different occasion – boatloads of himars were shot down. There was someone at some point doubting ability to hit himars, so here’s one video of shooting them down. They don’t release very often apparently, but they are piece of cake to hit for these air defense systems.
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/12469

Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 15:42 utc | 137

For 9 months already the Russians haven’t managed to advance more than a few kilometers in the Donbass. It’s pitiful. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are mounting large operational moves and retaking the whole Kherson area, as well as huge swathes in the North.
Lies, so many lies and fairytales. Fairytales and hearsay about “huge Ukrainian losses”. Nobody has any clue about it, it’s just hearsay based on anonymous TG posts but the whole pro-Russian camp swallows it and spews it forth, as if repeating an unproven claim 1000 times will make it true somehow.
Posted by: Micron | Nov 11 2022 14:30 utc | 101
Well said. I stopped voicing this sort of slant a while back because it gets many of the senior barflies knickers twisted and no point repeating.
But the seeming fact is that the western elites are talking their own polities down, the reset narrative is officially out there and it involves managed collapse. This means that in this war of attrition, both sides want the West to flounder.
If both sides want the same thing, how is it a conflict? That’s why I suspect much of this war is kabuki as your comment reflects. I don’t know and also don’t care if am wrong. But it’s a bit like the moon landing discussion: no matter what you believe you have to admit that you can’t definitively prove anything one way or another. Have 200,000 Ukies fallen in the field as some say? Or 35,000? Fewer? There is no definitive way of knowing.
Partisans on each side believe their side’s official statements regarding them as truth. I doubt either side is telling too much truth. Which again means we don’t really know what’s going on.
Maybe the conflict on the ground is more or less as reported with horrific losses on one or both sides. But that doesn’t change the broader context wherein both sides want the same outcome: decline and collapse of the West followed by fundamental regime change – more than mere regime change actually but entirely new polity based on entirely different principles which do not include common law based on mutual consent, sovereignty of the individual, right to privacy, habeas corpus and so on. THis is potentially the biggest civilizational shake-up since …. what, the fall of Rome maybe?
Since the very first week I’ve felt this has a phony war feeling to it and still do. But I can look at things from many different viewpoints so sometimes have this ‘both sides want the same thing’ lens and other times I try to understand what the West or RF is shooting for. If you do adopt the ‘both sides’ view, though, sometimes what’s going on makes a little more sense than if you are decidedly pro RF as so many here are.
In any case, imagining that your team is never going to make mistakes or have setbacks is another form or fantasy land too. At some point the dust will settle (2023, 2031??) and then we’ll get a clearer picture. Maybe. Until then: fog of war!

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 15:43 utc | 138

If UAF makes some offer tempting enough, like crossing with say 10k troops, it might be worth to blow the dam to sweep them all into the sea. Infrastructure can be built back later, men cannot, so easily.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 14:57 utc | 110

The dam and the bridge at Kakhovka are 2 separate structures, so the bridge traffic could be stopped while keeping the dam intact. If you are thinking of amphibious crossings, 10k is not possible unless the Russians allow it. Recall they could not get a couple of hundred across at Zaporizhia.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 15:46 utc | 139

[53] It is an understandable mistake. Guys like Milley are always looking at what the USA can do, and assumes that nobody does it better.
Milley looks pretty foolish.
But the Russians started pulling troops & equipment out before the public announcement. There were a few videos on Twitter at the time that showed minor movements back across the river. Looks like nobody put it together. However, didn’t the US/NATO intelligence community notice it? Seems like a big, big oversight. Kind of like that build up of the Ukrainians up north that moved the Russians back.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 11 2022 15:51 utc | 140

So how come Ukraine, as you claim are so weak are still able to win on the battlfield?
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 15:38 utc | 137
Ukraine winning? By what metric? Territory? Making Russian forces incapable of combat? You as a very dumb person person look at the territory alone. But territory does not win wars, making the opponent incapable of fighting the war is. Ukraine hasnt defeated Russia militarily. Infact, Ukraine is defeating itself militarily by voluntarily reducing its combat capabilities with attack after attack. Each loss of life makes the Ukrainian army less and less effective. In essence, Ukraine is trading its male population for territory. Russia is doing that as well, but on a lower scale and has a way bigger male population pool to draw from.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 15:51 utc | 141

According to Intel Slava 30000 Russian soldiers were evacuated across the Dnieper, with 5000 pieces of equipment. That’s a lot. Either it means the Russians really were afraid of a massive flood in case the dam was busted, or they have other plans we know nothing about. Meanwhile progress in the Avdiivka direction, which the Micron=Zanon bunch blissfully ignore.
In the end, Ukraine will remain in ruins. And that’s classical USA strategy: either there was a Ukraine harbouring nuclear missiles (with guaranteed destruction in case of a big war) or there would be an Ukraine that Russia had to destroy, as happens now. Being a USA ally is a death sentence. Whatever way this conflict goes, Ukraine will remain in tatters and Western europe will taste poverty. Belgium and Italy had a taste of USA (by CIA) policies in the 1980’s already with lots of terrorist attacks to force the population into obedience. Few people got that lesson. And people still don’t get the real meaning of every arms shipment to Ukraine (and it’s not just the financial gain of the arms producers).
But perhaps the Ukrainian soil is so fertile because of all the blood that has been shed on it through the ages, just like the fish hauls were very good in WOII (all those drowned sailors…) and maybe some investors à la Bill Gates even take that into account. Ethically, the USA really is a hopeless mess. One needs not be religious in order to understand that is why it will fail.

Posted by: anthony | Nov 11 2022 15:52 utc | 142

@ Igor | Nov 11 2022 14:44 utc | 102 quote
“We’re missing a lot of information regarding everything.”
but this doesn’t stop folks from speculating and pontificating up the yin yang… the moa comment section is like the comedy channel at this point…
moa commentators..others don’t get the picture but you do?? lolol… keep it coming… i’m with gruff.. time for a break at moa..

Posted by: james | Nov 11 2022 15:58 utc | 143

When the Russians took Kherson, did it not occur to them to move forward far enough to construct defensive fortifications to prevent Ukraine from getting close enough to destroy Kherson with HIMARS weapons? Or did they just think — let’s sit around here in the city and wait until the shells start falling on our heads, then we can retreat?
Does it take a lot of military experience to understand that once you capture a city you need to be able to protect it, meaning not only the structures but the civilians and your military personnel? Seriously, folks, something isn’t adding up here.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 11 2022 15:58 utc | 144

these brilliant military commanders at moa are killing me, lolol…

Posted by: james | Nov 11 2022 16:03 utc | 145

[147] “When the Russians took Kherson, did it not occur to them to move forward far enough”
The Russians did try to move forward enough to do what you suggested but were stopped and then pushed back a bit. Things pretty much stayed the same until now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mykolaiv

Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 11 2022 16:09 utc | 146

a balanced summary from Yves Smith of naked capitalism
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/11/russia-slips-out-of-kherson-under-cover-of-midterms.html
references most of the commentators
“In other words, the fog of war is pea-soupier than usual! Presumably more will be revealed in the next week or so, particularly regarding Ukraine’s response”

Posted by: Aslangeo | Nov 11 2022 16:11 utc | 147

Troop advance int the oppositw direction completed. Mission accomplished. Purple Hearts to everyone involved.

Posted by: Comandante | Nov 11 2022 16:15 utc | 148

Posted by: Seward | Nov 11 2022 15:32 utc | 132
Thxs for incisive, nuanced post.
My first-thought reaction to the news is that this is a Tsun Tzu move: ‘when weak appear strong, when strong appear weak.’
Russia is supposedly finishing up with getting an additional 300,000 troops ready for bear, a far greater number than the 200,000 she started with last February. And she still has most of the original 200,000. In short, Russia is becoming much, much stronger daily having only recently absorbed about 15% of Ukraine into her nation, an historic development achieved with relatively little bloodshed – though residents of Donbass might disagree.
And yet at this point, shortly before the ground freezes making manoeuver warfare possible again, she suddenly looks extremely weak, almost rolling over and leaving Crimea, her jewel in the Black Sea and her most important naval military port in the South, vulnerable to attack and her people’s water supply in jeopardy.
I dunno, but ….

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 16:18 utc | 149

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 15:51 utc | 143
I must thank you, Mr. Hartmann for all your posts on this thread. Putin’s keynote address at Valdai emphasized the two words “common sense” in opposition to ‘nonsense’, and he answered the first question to him later that his sympathies naturally align with those of the common people, as this was his own early upbringing. Russia as a country experienced firsthand what leaving governance to the oligarchical clique accomplishes — near total destruction of sovereignty. That is in every Russian adult’s common memory; it was not that long ago.
Oligarchs have no charisma; all they have is greed.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 11 2022 16:19 utc | 150

@Bill Smith 149
Yes, they made a half-hearted effort to take Mykolaiv but I’m talking about the open flatlands, the Steppe. And to take Mykolaiv, why on earth would the Russians think they could hold vast territory and advance at the same time, i.e., why was there no mobilization following well-known rules for the numbers needed to hold territory while also advancing? Something isn’t adding up here. They aren’t idiots, so they had to know they didn’t have the necessary manpower, so why go take Kherson in the first place if they weren’t prepared to hold it and be able to advance? Why would any soldiers even need to be in Kherson if they advanced beyond Kherson?

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 11 2022 16:19 utc | 151

Scott Ritter:
”This artillery war was being conducted on terms which expressly favored the Ukrainians. [- -]
But when the Ukrainians can operate their artillery in a manner which allows them to interdict Russian logistics, making it difficult to resupply Russian artillery units or provide effective operational and intelligence support (i.e., interdiction of Russian command and control), the artillery duel becomes one-sided, and it is the Russian troops who pay the price. By pulling Russian forces out of the west bank of the Dnieper, the Russian command was eliminating the artillery advantage that Ukraine had accrued.
With Russian forces dug in on the east bank of the Dnieper, Russian artillery would be able to be employed in a fashion which maximized its qualitative and quantitative advantages. In short, any Ukrainian forces seeking to approach the Dnieper River would be targeted by massed fires, breaking up their advance. Likewise, Ukrainian artillery would find itself in an untenable position, unable to concentrate their fires or be employed in a tactically sound manner for fear of being detected and destroyed by Russian counterbattery fires. [- -]
The fundamental question facing Russian leadership was this: what price was Russia willing to pay to hold on to the west bank of the Dnieper River? No Russian leader was willing to sacrifice up to 3,000 troops to sustain a frontline which gave Ukraine all the advantages. General Surovikin recommended the adjustment, and General Sergei Shoigu, the Russian Minister of Defense, agreed.
Russian mothers, wives, and children should applaud this decision, as should anyone who holds the life of a Russian soldier in high regard.”
https://www.scottritterextra.com/p/on-kherson

Posted by: mikaelvuo | Nov 11 2022 16:19 utc | 152

I get the feeling this move may will be for a domestic audience, who do not wish to see Russian deaths. At this stage Putin is probably concerned with making himself look like the guy who protects Russian soliders lives at all costs, and thereby shoring up his own position.
I do not believe the average Russian cares enough bout Ukraine to make the ultimate sacrifice (by the average Russian I do not mean anyone who volunteered for mobilsation)

Posted by: Night Tripper | Nov 11 2022 16:20 utc | 153

Does it take a lot of military experience to understand that once you capture a city you need to be able to protect it, meaning not only the structures but the civilians and your military personnel? Seriously, folks, something isn’t adding up here.
Posted by: OdessaConnected | Nov 11 2022 15:58 utc | 147

They “captured” (meaning they took over in one week) Kherson because it was mostly undefended. They have quite reasonably decided that to fortify it was not worth the cost.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 16:21 utc | 154

@ anthony
I think your observations are very good. Pretty much factual statements.
Putin is trying to put an end to US (and its super friend, the cancer state) terrorist foreign policies (well, now domestic as well). I can only hope Russia will prevail.

Posted by: windwaves | Nov 11 2022 16:21 utc | 155

The US admin, most recently dementiaBiden himself, continue to say that they will not allow the US to be drawn directly into the war.
This is a huge red flag.
Historically, the more they say something the more they mean the opposite.
As simple as that.

Posted by: windwaves | Nov 11 2022 16:25 utc | 156

@ by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 15:21 utc | 127
Thanks for the laugh…

Posted by: suzan | Nov 11 2022 16:29 utc | 157

If you need a break, check out the huge flood of videos from locals celebrating the liberation of Kherson. Guaranteed to warm even the crankiest of hearts!
Posted by: Yenwoda | Nov 11 2022 16:14 utc | 151

Because the ethic Russians have all left to get their newly rebuilt homes and jobs in Mariupol, the ones abandoned by the ethnic Ukrainians. The division of the country along ethno-cultural lines is happening. It is what the Banderas wanted, right?
And the US/EU “invested” (aka flushed) $100 billion in new debt to make it happen. No worries, the debt will never be repaid.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 16:31 utc | 158

It makes sense the Kherson retreat was orderly, the Russians are experts at running away by now. Maybe they’ll get tired and establish a good defensive line at the Urals. I hear that will set up a feint for Belarus to simultaneously take the Baltics and Poland.
At least we’ll get a few more weeks of laughs from incompetent liberal-on-liberal violence before Vladdy eats it.

Posted by: linbiao | Nov 11 2022 16:37 utc | 159

If you need a break, check out the huge flood of videos from locals celebrating the liberation of Kherson. Guaranteed to warm even the crankiest of hearts!
Posted by: Yenwoda | Nov 11 2022 16:14 utc | 151

Kherson has no electricity, and all communication towers are knocked down.
Who knows where that “flood of videos” is coming from.
Definitely not from place which does not have functioning cell network and reliable internet provider.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 11 2022 16:47 utc | 160

@ james | Nov 11 2022 15:58 utc | 146
I actually agree with you, some posters here seem to be too confident in their analysis, probably without having more knowledge of the actual situation than you or me. I clearly stated my opinion is just that, and it’s probably flawed due to things I missed or I don’t even know yet. But, isn’t the actual purpose of the comments section to share available facts, and thoughts about them, with other commentators?
For example, about the Kherson retreat, it’s also possible that it’s just a tactical withdrawal, and will be followed by a renewed Russian offensive on northern or eastern Ukraine.
It’s even possible that the logistics/supply/troop issue sayings by some people here are true, and Russian army simply doesn’t have enough force to push deeper. I personally doesn’t believe that, but who knows.
Or there may be unknown movements behind the scenes that is leading to this right now.
Time will tell. What we know now for sure is Russian army is almost fully retreated from eastern Dnieper area without losses, and there’s a renewed push for diplomacy by all parties. From that, we can only guess.
As I stated in a different thread days ago, I’ve reading this site and its forums for some time. There were also comment spikes when Russians retreated from Kharkov and when Kerch bridge was attacked, for some days. After that, things returned to normal. I guess the same will happen now. I see “b” is deleting a lot of comments, there are probably some people trying to push certain narratives right now.

Posted by: Igor | Nov 11 2022 16:47 utc | 161

@james | Nov 11 2022 16:03 utc | 148
Indeed.
For the record, re these vacuous trolls, this is not a ‘defeat’ nor a ‘surrender’. BS. It is a TACTICAL WITHDRAWAL, in order to serve higher, overriding, military operational & strategic imperatives, while in contact with the enemy, who has localized numerical superiority.
This is the most difficult and demanding operation any command and ground troops ever face. And by all accounts executed pretty much flawlessly while further attriting the now hodgepodge UAF who have been so serially gutted since Feb24, I expect finding trained & competent Junior officers & NCOs still alive or NOT seriously WIA who were serving on Feb24, as difficult as hens teeth.
Milley … two weeks to complete ? Ha.
Daily UAF losses for months now of ‘Technicals’, armed Pickups, and for weeks now simply ‘commercial vehicles’, instead of formerly IFVs & APCs …
Empires Ukie-Facist-merc proxies are demonstrating so much ‘winning’ flinging thier bodies daily at artillery splinters month after month … sure.
For example, UAF is entirely dependent on DONATED artillery shells, in a minimum of nine+ calibers for daily fires. The MIM23 Hawk AD systems currently being ‘donated’ date from 1959 and were finally retired and stored as war reserves by the Marines in 2002. Literally, expensive junk.
The UAF military collapse when it comes will be rapid and catastrophic.
That is unless US/NATO directly intervenes at some point prior, which is what the other ~90% of RF forces are held on alert for, in reserve, along with Belarus forces. The 1st Guards Tank Army, and the rest, must be itching to roll …
Peace

Posted by: Outraged | Nov 11 2022 16:47 utc | 162

Arne Hartmann

Ukraine winning? By what metric? Territory?

Yes Ukraine is winning on any metric you want to chose from.
Morale, territory, better weapons, better intelligence, more support, free money from the west etc.

Ukraine hasnt defeated Russia militarily. Infact, Ukraine is defeating itself militarily by voluntarily reducing its combat capabilities with attack after attack. Each loss of life makes the Ukrainian army less and less effective. In essence, Ukraine is trading its male population for territory. Russia is doing that as well, but on a lower scale and has a way bigger male population pool to draw from.

Ukraine has retaking area after area, the morale is greater than ever. That would be considered a success if it was Russia that did that, that is what denialism leads to: twisting to your reality.
Russia have lost thousands, you think russians being used as cannon fooder is justified? Twisted!

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 16:49 utc | 163

9 months since invasion and not even Donbas is secured and people here fooling themselves that Kherson bigger and even further away can somehow be secured permanently? Delusional!
“Kiev’s forces shell Donetsk 3 times in 30 minutes from NATO-standard weapons, says DPR ”
https://tass.com/politics/1535463
“Ukrainian shelling damages school building in DPR settlement
It is reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired two HIMARS rockets at Rozovka on Friday”
https://tass.com/politics/1535491
“DPR’s biggest mining and processing plant comes under shelling by Ukrainian troops ”
https://tass.com/emergencies/1535469
And now, Ukraine have massed over 5k soldiers in Zaporoszhye!
“Ukraine ups number of foreign mercenaries in Zaporozhye Region — authorities ”
https://tass.com/politics/1535465
If Russia had any working intelligence they would have of course taken care of each of these massing troops/arms, but as usual: 1 step behind.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 16:57 utc | 164

And it took all of 2 months for those oversized novelty checks, signed to so much fanfare, to bounce: which international partners will trust Russia in the future if Russia won’t even defend what it calls its own territory?
Posted by: Yenwoda | Nov 11 2022 16:36 utc | 166

Yes. Vučić hinted exactly that from Paris yesterday. Created quite a buzz in Russian blogosphere.
They know. Well, so be it.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 11 2022 16:57 utc | 165

And it looks like that big nuclear power plant is still connected to the ‘Ukrainian’ grid!
Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 11 2022 12:00 utc | 33
nope. Still running on diesel to keep the pools cool.

Posted by: sln2002 | Nov 11 2022 16:59 utc | 166

Zanon, we are on to you. Full time job troll.

Posted by: Jzo | Nov 11 2022 17:01 utc | 167

PREDICTION : The Ukraine occupied city of Kherson will witness mass war crimes committed by Ukraine forces, just like Bucha, just like Donbas for the past 8 years.
The worst thing is, all this will be blamed on Russia and credulous idiots in the west will believe it, just like Bucha, just like nordstream, just like Iraq WMD, just like Iraqi pulling out incubator babies.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 10:59 utc | 7
^^^ Excellent, prescient comment. The 24-365-all-hype-all-the-time propaganda machine has been so highly refined since 1991 that it believes it defines reality. It’s enough of a reality distortion field that almost everyone in the West believes what it wants.

Posted by: D | Nov 11 2022 17:01 utc | 168

Arne Hartmann
Ukraine winning? By what metric? Territory?
Yes Ukraine is winning on any metric you want to chose from. Morale, territory, better weapons, better intelligence, more support, free money from the west etc.
Ukraine hasnt defeated Russia militarily. Infact, Ukraine is defeating itself militarily by voluntarily reducing its combat capabilities with attack after attack. Each loss of life makes the Ukrainian army less and less effective. In essence, Ukraine is trading its male population for territory. Russia is doing that as well, but on a lower scale and has a way bigger male population pool to draw from.
Ukraine has retaking area after area, the morale is greater than ever. That would be considered a success if it was Russia that did that, that is what denialism leads to: twisting to your reality. Russia have lost thousands, you think russians being used as cannon fooder is justified? Twisted!
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 16:49 utc | 172
You are a prime example of what I called earlier a person who is making claims without supporting evidence. In your world, these claims are enough to be seen as true and factual statements by others, while in fact they are just claims. You dont even include my main point of combat capabilities of each side.
You are troll. Since trolls are toxic and try to derail a conversation to a point that others leave the conversation and then stopp reading MoA, Bernhard should IP ban you and others who make the same one-liner claims, unsupported by facts. Otherwise, he will have less and less ppl reading his pieces or commenting on his threads in good faith, since only trolls will be left.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 17:04 utc | 169

I agree with those saying that there is something fishy about the Kherson withdrawal.
If the Russians were planning this for weeks and Ukraine kept saying “it’s a trap” then their intelligence was terrible (and given U.S. support, this is unlikely) or they were lying. Other people on MoA have talked of possible secret deals, but wars don’t work like that.
I’m inclined to think Ukraine knew Russia was withdrawing and just plain let them, to spare their own troops. I think both sides are getting ground down and losing the will to fight.

Posted by: GoFast | Nov 11 2022 17:07 utc | 170

Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 15:13 utc | 119
karlof1 wrote an articl ot his website a few days ago with extensive quote from Putin. What really struck me is the emphasis on Russia continuing to prosper even under these conditions. Infrastructure development, social safety net and everything else a prosperous nation requires are constantly progressing.
There are many complaints the SMO was poorly managed, but I think Russia new from the start this would be very long and budgeted accordingly. The Ukroids penchant for suicide would be difficult to determine before hand and the amount of US, EU assistance when the tyres met the road had to be played by ear. Russia’s economy can sustain the SMO forever if need be without the Russian people have to go through economic hardship.
As for poor planning at the start, Russia has destroyed the original Ukraine army two times over now. Nearly double the number of armoured vehicles Ukraine started with have been destroyed, nearly double the number of aircraft Ukraine started with have been destroyed.
Now Europe and UK have been bled dry – economically and weapons supply. US worried about its dwindling supply of weapons…. all in eight months or so and on a budget that doesn’t break the Russian bank.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 17:08 utc | 171

he will have less and less ppl reading his pieces or commenting on his threads in good faith, since only trolls will be left.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 17:04 utc | 180
Not if the last 700+ comment thread is anything to go by.
It’s a good thing b allows these trolling comments. It prevents the blog becoming an echo chamber and provides entertainment.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 17:10 utc | 172

81 not trolling.
My laugh for the day

Posted by: Susan | Nov 11 2022 17:13 utc | 173

You can tell the Americans here by their focus on short term results. If determining the outcome takes longer than a professional sports playoff series, they cannot comprehend it.
The extent to which their warfare/welfare state depends on the USD as the dominant world reserve currency is also not understood.

To each his sufferings: all are men,
Condemn’d alike to groan—
The tender for another’s pain,
Th’ unfeeling for his own.
Yet, ah! why should they know their fate,
Since sorrow never comes too late,
And happiness too swiftly flies?
Thought would destroy their Paradise.
No more;—where ignorance is bliss,
‘Tis folly to be wise.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 17:14 utc | 174

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 17:10 utc | 185
The comment section shouldnt be an echo chamber. But if you take a certain position, no matter which one, you should support it with a reasoning that others can chew on. One-liners like “HAHA, Russia is losing, because Ukraine is winning” is destructive trolling.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 17:15 utc | 175

windwaves @ 160

Putin is trying to put an end to US (and its super friend, the cancer state) terrorist foreign policies (well, now domestic as well). I can only hope Russia will prevail.

Russia is trying to survive without disrupting its society too much and knock the USA down a notch achieving some sort of parity and a quid pro quo, as is China. No one in the RoW is looking to throw the world into chaos. Anything beyond that is a fantasy, worse self destructive. Russia and China are sane, they are not taking on the west because they sense weakness and are implementing big plans to “break it”, the west is attacking them because it senses its own weakness, the RoW is reacting best it can trying to carefully usher in a new stable paradigm that benefits them more. There’s no place for triumphalism.
The empire’s in decline because capitalism is in decline, it’s a slow historic process occurring over centuries, the decline seemingly is spiraling faster and faster down the abyss because of the misdirected transition to neoliberalism, ie unbridled, structural criminality, which didn’t usher in the anticipated golden age of hyper free market capitalism but turned out to be its coup de grace, destroying centuries old commons and creating a maelstrom of crapification throughout every aspect of life in previously stable western societies. The goose likely could have laid golden eggs for an other century or two but the two dimensional criminals minds running our world decided to strangle it and throw it in the cook pot.
Marx foresaw all this and whether one likes it or not it’s actually written in stone. You don’t have to accept Marx, you can try and work around it, with varying degrees of success but you’d be a fool to just ignore him.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 11 2022 17:16 utc | 176

hopehely | Nov 11 2022 16:47 utc | 169
Only Ukraine government ‘journalists allowed in the Kherson bridge head. Production of victory videos and planning began some days ago. Actors in Ukraine white helmet productions. Some residents did refuse to be evacuated so extermination squads will be going through the bridgehead area looking for ‘collaborators’. Videos of Russian war crimes against civilians will start to emerge in the coming days.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 17:17 utc | 177

Arne Hartmann

You are a prime example of what I called earlier a person who is making claims without supporting evidence.

What claim do you need evidence for? Considering you believe russian retrating is a good winning strategy I doubt any source/fact could change your mind though.

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 17:21 utc | 178

Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 11 2022 17:06 utc | 181
I’m dreading the day when I begin hearing about the shelling of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces.
Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 11 2022 17:08 utc | 184
I’m wondering where the next Russian withdrawal will take place,
Do all you trolls (Zelensky-anon, rk, Marko,done bacon etc …) cut and paste variations from the same shared notepad or do you come up with this repetitive drivel all by yourselves?
Do you realize how obvious you clowns and your lies look?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 17:22 utc | 179

sln2002 | Nov 11 2022 16:59 utc | 175
I had read Russia was keeping one reactor running to power the cooling pumps for the other reactors.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 17:22 utc | 180

Peter AU1 @ 191

Videos of Russian war crimes against civilians will start to emerge in the coming days.

Kherson was taken over without a fight, the Russians were welcomed in, and it has been peaceful until these last months of Ukrainian attacks – but expect plenty of mass graves to turn up.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 11 2022 17:22 utc | 181

Ukraine is building a wall on the border with Belarus…
https://t.me/intelslava/40906
Is the US indirectly funding it, or did they get Mexico agree to pay for it. Pure comedy gold.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 17:22 utc | 182

I’m wondering where the next Russian withdrawal will take place, because I’m sure that an argument can be made to retreat in some other region to more “defensible lines.”
Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 11 2022 17:08 utc | 184

No need to wonder, just wait for announcements from Russian general staff. They are in charge. They make decisions and give orders to troops where to move and what to do.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 11 2022 17:23 utc | 183

GoFast | Nov 11 2022 17:07 utc | 182 “Other people on MoA have talked of possible secret deals, but wars don’t work like that.”
Ever heard of Syria? When the US comes up against a power like Russia, that is exactly how wars work.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 17:26 utc | 184

It’s a good thing b allows these trolling comments. It prevents the blog becoming an echo chamber and provides entertainment.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 17:10 utc | 185
—
To paraphrase Jim Jefferies paraphrasing Descartes.
The only sure thing is I think therefore I am. Everything else is open to interpretation. There is this possibility that we are all discussing on a blog called Moon of Alabama. But there is also a certain chance that each of us is in a white box yelling at a padded wall.
Who knows for sure?

Posted by: Nobody | Nov 11 2022 17:28 utc | 185

If Ukraine were so weak as you imagine, how come then Russia is the one retreating, for months? When was the last russian offensive? Like mid summer, like 4 months back! Compare that with Ukraine that have carried out an offensive for about as much time. How come if they are so allegedly weak?
So how come Ukraine, as you claim are so weak are still able to win on the battlfield? Obviously Ukraine is not weak nor depleted in money nor weapons. Have you missed that west keep giving, for free, weapons and cash to Ukraine right at this moment?
EU/US/Nato produce more weapons than Russia, EU,/US/NATO produce more money than Russia. Obviously Russia cannot withstand such an enemy in the long run – it is a matter of fact.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 15:38 utc | 137
Thing is, no-one is imagining things but the likes of you. Every meaningless territory gained, HIMARS missile not shot down, is an embarassement for Russia, in your eyes. But you simply fail to see – not to speak of acknowledge – the big picture.
The west doesn’t give Ukraine everything they want, and certainly not for free. And it can’t do so for much longer -as I said – since according to western military folk, the western arsenals are not only running empty, but the manufacturers can’t keep up in filling them up for the respective countries own needs. Likewise, that free money to Ukraine is not coming from somewhere, but is straining the EU and various countries to the point of breaking, unless they want to print it for free and thus ruin their own economies even more, who are already creaking. I actually do wonder where you actually come from and live to give us this nonsense about free money and weapons? Surely not from Europe.
BTW, the allied forces do not “retreat for months”. Next you’ll tell us that after the Donbass, they’ll go straight for Moscow, right?

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 11 2022 17:28 utc | 186

No amphibious assault can happen without large numbers of boats accompanied by air support. Military boats are denied access under the Montreaux Convention. Surely the folks at Slavyangrad know this.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 14:38 utc | 99
I hope you are correct about the Montreaux Convention, but exactly who will prevent the UK or the US from entering the Black Sea if they insist on coming through?

Posted by: Ed Nelson | Nov 11 2022 17:28 utc | 187

Arch Bungle @ 194

Do you realize how obvious you clowns and your lies look?

Given the $7.25/hr, lack of benefits and all that, anglo psyops could do much better outsourcing the trolling to South Korea or India, they’d save money and get much better quality. The schools are better in those countries, work standards are higher, and workers still have self respect. We on the forum would have a better time of it too dueling with non-idiot trolls.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 11 2022 17:28 utc | 188

I just wonder where the next Russian retreat will take place.
Posted by: theomimesis | Nov 11 2022 17:18 utc | 192

1. Look under your bed…
2. Then do an anti-virus scan on your computer (not Kaspersky)…
3. Check local real estate sales/rentals to see if any moved into the ‘hood.
All clear? While you were doing 2 and 3 they might have done 1, better look again.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 17:29 utc | 189

To your point, why then take it in the first place?
Posted by: PAPAPA | Nov 11 2022 17:01 utc | 176
It occurred to me this morning that it was to hold the plebiscite to make it part of Mother Russia again. This current movement of forces to more defensible locations is by no means a surrender of the legal status of the territory. Any forces trying to take and hold Kherson are now invading Russia and will at some point suffer the consequences.

Posted by: Scorpion | Nov 11 2022 17:32 utc | 190

It’s a good thing b allows these trolling comments. It prevents the blog becoming an echo chamber and provides entertainment.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 17:10 utc | 185T

I don’t see anything wrong with Zanon comments. They are on topic.
He sides with xoxolz? So what.

Posted by: hopehely | Nov 11 2022 17:33 utc | 191

One-liners like “HAHA, Russia is losing, because Ukraine is winning” is destructive trolling.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 17:15 utc | 188
If wit were sh1t they wouldn’t cover sixpence.
Hopefully the quality of the trolling will improve.

Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 17:41 utc | 192

Here we go again
Assassination attempt on pro-russian minister. This time in Zaprozohye

The Investigative Committee is investigating an attempt on the life of the Deputy Minister for Culture and Sports of the Zaporozhye region Boyko

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-11-11-the-investigative-committee-is-investigating-an-attempt-on-the-life-of-the-deputy-minister-for-culture-and-sports-of-the-zaporozhye-region-boyko.SyQMoojoBs.html
How come we never see assaissinations of ukrainian leaders? Because Russia is afraid of waging a war they started.
And once again, Russia moves in, let the people there believe they belong to Russia proper, only to move out:
“Civilians in Kherson facing threat of death, torture from Ukrainian army, politician warns ”
https://tass.com/politics/1535489

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 17:41 utc | 193

“Now Europe and UK have been bled dry – economically and weapons supply…” Peter AU1@183
One of the costliest items in the support budget is that of training the troops. This is especially the case where it involves transporting them to NATO countries to be trained by specialists. The SAS and Royal Marines, for example will train them at their HQs in England.
It maybe in fact that travel abroad, the special treatment they get from foreigners and the sense of self importance and inclusion in the Imperial alliance that this gives them is reflected in generally improved morale in the Ukrainian forces. It is ‘soft power’ in a most invidious form.
But it is costly in ways that are of no benefit to the Ukrainians- it contrasts with the growing austerity in NATO countries where war budgets cut into social programmes, are blamed for inflation and, together with the presence of millions of refugees add to the causes of discontent. And the growth of questioning about the war.
And the longer it lasts the worse things get.
It is one of life’s little ironies that this succession of wars-all aimed at preventing multipolarity- since 2001 have directly associated refugee crises with war. This makes it difficult for the warmongering right to simultaneously carp about immigration and cause waves of civilians seeking refuge.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 11 2022 17:42 utc | 194

[156] “Yes, they made a half-hearted effort to take Mykolaiv”
My guess is that Russian Battle Plan A was made with one overriding assumption. That overall, Ukraine would not be willing to fight if they (the Russians) could blitz their way into Kyiv and a few of the other major population centers. The Russians got into Kyiv, to right outside the Zoo, but the advance elements where not strong enough and got destroyed or chased out. The same happened, as you pretty much say, in Mykolaiv.
After that the Russians where forced to moved to Plan B. “Officially” this happened with the withdrawal in the north from Kyiv and somewhat around Kharkov. Plan B likely just meant the two new republics (DNR and LNK). Along the way it became the 4 oblasts they annexed.
My opinion is that neither Plan A or Plan B assumed the level of support the west has given Ukraine. Now the Russians are on Plan C with likely means to outwait the west’s support and Ukraine’s ability to repair its infrastructure.

Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 11 2022 17:44 utc | 195

Ed Nelson@203
Turkish Army shore batteries. Ask an Aussie whether that would work. Or a New Zealander.

Posted by: bevin | Nov 11 2022 17:45 utc | 196

When Russia withdrew from around Kieve, the mayor of a small town was advised to evacuate. He refused and he and his family were found/photographed in a well by Ukraine propaganda.
Something I have noticed with this war in Ukraine. Many, especially the older people refuse to leave their homes. They go down into the basements and wait for the war to pass over them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 17:45 utc | 197

Lots of talk here both pro RF and pro UKR citing numbers of all sorts as if they’d gone out and counted the troops and tanks themselves. All these numbers come out of defense ministries on both sides and get run through the echo chamber of the msm and social media which through the same magic applied to advertising endows these numbers with, ta-da – credibility.
When in history has any military given out correct numbers regarding troop sizes! Too many people on all sides here are eternally gullible or still have things learn.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Nov 11 2022 17:45 utc | 198

Peter AU1@183
bevin | Nov 11 2022 17:42 utc | 211
—
Timely reading: “How to Pay for the War, Keynes” ==> https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/pay-war-6021

Posted by: too scents | Nov 11 2022 17:46 utc | 199

Shushan takes you down,
To a place by the river,
You can see boats go by,
You ca—
… Well, who couldn’t see that coming.

Posted by: Laurence | Nov 11 2022 17:51 utc | 200

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