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Si tacuisses, …
Russian retreat from Kherson city sets stage for more hard combat
Washington Post – Nov 10, 2022
U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the western bank of the river and that it would take time for them to withdraw. But he, too, saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said.
“This won’t take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.”
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The Ministry of Defense reported on the completion of the withdrawal of troops from Kherson
Kommersant (machine translation) – Nov 11, 2022
The Ministry of Defense reported that at 5:00 Moscow time, the transfer of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper was completed. As the agency clarifies, not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank.
The department reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried at night to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. River crossings were hit five times by HIMARS rockets.
“All Russian military personnel crossed over, no losses of personnel, weapons, equipment and materiel of the Russian group were allowed,” the Ministry of Defense said.
Another day, more dead fascists….
🇷🇺Summary of the Ministry of Defense of Russia on the situation in the zone of the special operation:
◽️In the Kherson direction today at 5 o’clock in the morning Moscow time, the transfer of units of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper River was completed. Not a single unit of military equipment and weapons on the right bank was left. All Russian servicemen crossed to the left bank of the Dnieper. Losses of personnel, weapons, military equipment and materiel of the Russian group of troops were not allowed.
◽️During the night, the enemy tried to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. On the crossings of the Dnieper River during the night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were struck 5 blows from the HIMARS MLRS.
💥Russian air defenses shot down 28 rockets. Another five rockets were successfully deflected from their targets by electronic warfare.
💥The fire of Russian artillery, air strikes and the use of mine-explosive obstacles, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were stopped at a distance of 30-40 kilometers from the area of crossings over the Dnieper River.
💥Loitering ammunition “Lancet” and the fire of multiple launch rocket systems destroyed three American towed howitzers M777, two infantry fighting vehicles and three enemy pickups during the day.
💥In addition, more than twenty Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, two self-propelled guns and three armored personnel carriers exploded on minefields.
▪️ In the Kupyansk direction,3 company tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made unsuccessful attempts to launch an offensive from the areas of Yagodne, Kislovka and Volodymyrivka, Kharkiv region. The enemy was stopped and pushed back to their original positions. Morethan 120 Ukrainian militants, 2 tanks, 3 BMPs, 2 armored personnel carriers and 5 vehicles were destroyed.
▪️ In the Krasnolimansky direction, the active actions of the units of the Russian troops and the preemptive fire of artillery thwarted the attack of two companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reinforced by Polish mercenaries, in the direction of the villages of Chervonopopovka and Ploschanka of the LPR.
▪️Enemy losses amounted to up to 90 Ukrainian militants and mercenaries killed and wounded, 1 AFV.
▪️ In the South-Donetsk direction,attempts by motorized infantry companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counterattack in the direction of the village of Sladkoe of the DPR were stopped.
💥 Artillery and army aviation destroyedmore than 65 Ukrainian militants, 1 tank and 4 armored personnel carriers.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery during the day hitninepoints of control of the Armed Forces of Ukrainein the areas of Novaya Kamenka, Pravdino, Kherson region, Novopetrovka, Ternivnye Pody of the Mykolaiv region, Ivanovka, Krakhmalne of the Kharkiv region, Bakhmutske, Kleshcheyevka, and Novoselka of the DPR, as well as 52 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 176 districts.
💥In the area of the city of Nikolaev, anammunition depot of the28th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed.
💥During the counter-battery struggle, aplatoon of American towed howitzers M777in the area of Zolochiv, Kharkiv region, was suppressed. In addition, in the area of the village of Nevskoye LPR, a platoon of Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers “Acacia” was suppressed.
💥 Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forcesin the area of the village of Mirovka, Zaporozhye region, shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Air Force.
💥Air defense means shot downseven unmanned aerial vehicles during the day in the areas of the settlements of Golikovo, Krasnorechenske, Krivosheyevka of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Makarovka, Nikolske and Kirillovka of the DPR.
💥In addition, 32 shells of the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system were destroyed in the airin the areas of the settlements of Novaya Kakhovka, Korsunka and Antonovka of the Kherson region, as well as five American HARM anti-radar missiles in the areas of the settlements of Irmino of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Yenakiieve of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Korsunka and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson region.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 333 aircraft, 174 helicopters, 2486 unmanned aerial vehicles, 388 anti-aircraft missile systems, 6511 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 885 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3569 field artillery pieces and mortars, as well as 7166 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
t.me/rusvesnasu
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 11 2022 12:35 utc | 57
My assumption and understanding is that the core problem is that inadequate precautions were made to secure Kherson area before Surovikin took over, and that it is not possible to rectify that situation yet. With sufficient forces and firepower, they should be able to return securely.
The problems were:
First, they didn’t take Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog because of insufficient forces deployed in those directions and some errors made there in the early days. That would have secured the river crossings by taking them out of artillery range.
Second, Ukraine’s own MRLS systems had been largely destroyed and they had no PGMs for those anyway, but then the HIMARS were sent, and this was one of the specific purposes. And the Russians didn’t do enough to stop those deliveries.
And here we are.
However:
My prediction is that Russia will aim to try and keep them out and/or annihilate any that try, until the ground is frozen solid and all the preparations are ready for the next phase. Then they will cross the Dnieper in 3 or more locations, not just Kherson, simultaneously and in huge numbers, and make a massive blitz over a large area, forcing the way to Nikolaiev and eventually Odessa.
[…]
As Putin said: “We haven’t really started yet”.
Posted by: BM | Nov 11 2022 12:04 utc | 41
I am going into armchair general mode with this, but people need to look at the map carefully. From Nikolaev to Odessa it is not an open field. Far from it, it is a series of 4-5 long estuaries, each wider than the Dnieper at Kherson, that are difficult to cross. So going along the coast wasn’t really viable, plus you need to protect the flank, which is very long and exposed towards core Banderistan.
They would have to make a push for Pervomaisk (which they did in the first days, but it failed), connect with Transnistria and establish a stable defense line there, isolate Odessa that way, and only then siege it. And it can’t really be fought over because it is an open-air museum, it has to be preserved from physical destruction. The whole situation is one giant hostage operation — NATO plus the Ukronazis holding Ukrainian citizens, especially the Russian portion, hostage, and thus preventing the Russians from waging real war — but nowhere is this more symbolically concentrated in one place than it is in Odessa.
Still, even if you have taken Odessa and Nikolaev, there is that large exposed flank to the north, towards core Banderistan, and this is not stable, it would have to be secured somehow.
It may in fact be easier to cut Ukraine in half west of Kiev and get to Odessa that way. There is basically nothing there but open fields, no fortifications, no large cities other than Zhytomyr and Vynnytsia, which aren’t really that big to begin with, and can be bypassed. As I have noted many times, there is no stable peace that does not involve the reincorporation of the whole of Ukraine back into Russia and then doing both denazification and de-Ukrainization from within the borders of the RF. Russians have to reach the NATO border and raise the new Iron Curtain, so that we get out of this twisted perverse situation in which NATO is fighting from behind the back of the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t strike back for fear of bringing the end of the world. Otherwise there will be perpetual war and nuclear blackmail from NATO and Russia is finished.
If that is obvious to us armchair observers here, it has to be understood in the Kremlin too.
So maybe there is indeed a plan to take Odessa eventually from the North as part of some grand operation.
The problem is that the current 300,000 mobilized are not sufficient for that. You need WWII-level forces for such big arrows moves. And you need real testicular fortitude, which so far there is no evidence for the presence of.
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 12:43 utc | 63
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