Si tacuisses, ...
Russian retreat from Kherson city sets stage for more hard combat
Washington Post - Nov 10, 2022
U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the western bank of the river and that it would take time for them to withdraw. But he, too, saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said.“This won’t take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.”
The Ministry of Defense reported on the completion of the withdrawal of troops from Kherson
Kommersant (machine translation) - Nov 11, 2022
The Ministry of Defense reported that at 5:00 Moscow time, the transfer of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper was completed. As the agency clarifies, not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank.The department reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried at night to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. River crossings were hit five times by HIMARS rockets.
“All Russian military personnel crossed over, no losses of personnel, weapons, equipment and materiel of the Russian group were allowed,” the Ministry of Defense said.
Posted by b on November 11, 2022 at 10:29 UTC | Permalink
next page »Interesting Twitter thread on the difference between media claims and reality in Pavlovka:
https://twitter.com/failure1991/status/1590858186034380800
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 11 2022 10:41 utc | 2
Who to believe? If true , and all Russians are south of the Dneiper river, it is a story to rival Xenophon’s Fighting Retreat in the Anabasis.
I still say it was a mistaken unneeded move, though.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 11 2022 10:41 utc | 3
All these surprises are no surprise.
Igor Rasterayev - Russkaya doroga (2010) (... Remember our strange tactical method: When we are retreating - it means we're advancing...)
Posted by: tRI | Nov 11 2022 10:50 utc | 4
this prompt and orderly withdrawal suggest it's been planned since days and maybe weeks. It also show how different the Russian approach of war is from our own perception.
Posted by: W | Nov 11 2022 10:53 utc | 5
Withdrawing from the right bank and Kherson in good order whilst General Mud (and mines) hamper the AFU advance, and just before the first blast of General Winter, is good military strategy and outstanding logistical execution.
Ukrainian military command will now be having a big headache, wondering where those RF forces will now be redeployed.
Along with General Winter, the AFU now have to deal with General Uncertainty.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 10:54 utc | 6
PREDICTION : The Ukraine occupied city of Kherson will witness mass war crimes committed by Ukraine forces, just like Bucha, just like Donbas for the past 8 years.
The people in city of Kherson, who I'm sure a significant number remain, voted to be part of Russia. Imagine the wrath shown on them, especially given the fact that Kyiv threatened 15 years sentence to whoever participated in the referendums.
The worst thing is, all this will be blamed on Russia and credulous idiots in the west will believe it, just like Bucha, just like nordstream, just like Iraq WMD, just like Iraqi pulling out incubator babies.
There may be viral videos of Ukraine soldiers performing the war crimes. Anyone one pointing out the Ukraine/Nation insignia will be labeled "Kremlin troll", the insignia excused as "Russian false flag" and then banned, canceled complete with frozen bank accounts.
I wonder if there is a way to get the word out and beat these satanic anti-christ minions who come up with these schemes to the punch before this happens to prime the audience against this propaganda
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 10:59 utc | 7
Antonovsky bridge was destroyed.
Location 📍: Kherson
#VID
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19692
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:02 utc | 8
Well, that’s just some peachy news that.
What will be the next part of Russian territory that the Russian armed forces withdraw from to avoid casualties?!?
ZNPP?!?
Posted by: Julian | Nov 11 2022 11:05 utc | 9
Statement from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
"Kherson region is part of Russia, this status is fixed, and there can be no changes to it."
This is a warning that reprisals against civilians still in Kherson will be regarded as crimes against Russian citizens. We can only hope the AFU and Kiev regime take heed.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 11:07 utc | 10
Re: Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 10:59 utc | 7
The way to prevent that is to defeat the enemy rather than follow a strategy of withdrawal after withdrawal.
Of the Russians are destroying bridges over the river to Kherson (as the Russians have claimed!!) - that hardly indicates any plan whatsoever for the Russians to retake Kherson!
Posted by: Julian | Nov 11 2022 11:08 utc | 11
It looks like the Russians did a good job of getting their troop across the river. Though there were videos of artillery strikes on the crossing points during the night. So it is hard to imagine that they didn't take loses but it could have been much, much worse.
It will be interesting to see how much equipment they left behind. Already videos are emerging of piles of ammunition and vehicles that were not destroyed. It will take some time to figure out how extensive that is.
A victory for Ukraine but not as much of one as it might have been if they had managed to really damage the Russian withdrawal.
I think a sign of how good the Ukraine army has become will be how soon we see videos of them using long range fires on across the river to strike the Russian troops and equipment that just retreated. If it takes more than a day or two that would be another sign of an opportunity lost.
Posted by: Bill Smith | Nov 11 2022 11:08 utc | 12
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 10:59 utc | 7
What are any civilians still doing in Kherson?
They had ample warning and assistance from the Russian Army.
Any remaining must be expecting empathy from the AFU.
They deserve any they get.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 11:12 utc | 13
After the capture of Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin to prepare for the battle of Crimea - @voenkorKotenokThe withdrawal of troops from the right bank of the Dnieper to the left is a difficult but necessary decision, that poses completely different tasks for the Russian army.
The decision to abandon Kherson by Russian troops did not come as a surprise. This step had been predicted by military experts. Even the date of the start of the withdrawal was known - November 10 but the RF Armed Forces command announced the operation a little in advance, which was a tactical move.
Preparations for the abandonment of Kherson had been underway since late October; our military and volunteers were conducting a mass evacuation of the population. People were asked to leave not only Kherson but also dozens of other settlements. From a moral point of view, it is difficult to assess this decision by our military leadership . In fact, it is a scar on the heart.
In the current configuration of combat operations, our command has made a clear bet on defense. A huge bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper held the danger for our troops - now the military initiative belongs to the enemy. Anyone who asserts the contrary, will err against the truth.
The withdrawal of our troops from the right bank of the Dnieper to the left bank can last from several days to a week. Kherson itself is now in a "suspended" status, the enemy has not entered there yet, and our troops have prepared for active defense. In the near future, the Russian troops should be ready for new activations of the enemy in other parts of the front.
Many experts now forecast a relative lull at the fronts due to the onset of winter and the sharp deterioration of weather conditions. Nevertheless, the situation for our troops remains very worrying. We are releasing forces engaged in the Kherson direction, but no less, and perhaps even greater forces are being released by the AFU.
Soon the enemy will be able to release up to ten brigades whose personnel have significant combat experience. These forces will certainly be re-equipped, and will receive new weapons from the West. The enemy will try to redeploy these units to other parts of the front: to the south-east of Kharkiv Region, to Donbass, and to the Zaporizhzhia direction.At the moment, the AFU has technical superiority over our troops in certain parts of the front, as Ukrainian units are being actively "pumped up" with Western equipment and weapons.
As for the return of the right bank of the Kherson region under the control of the RF Armed Forces, I think our command has no such task in the near future. Of course, everything will depend on further developments in the theatre of military operations. Nevertheless, the issue of the liberation of such important cities as Odessa and Mykolaiv is also postponed indefinitely. After the abandonment of Kherson, this looks like a very difficult task to achieve.
The withdrawal of our troops and the build-up of combat initiative on the part of the AFU may pose a threat of transferring hostilities to the Crimean region as well. This is evidenced by the enemy's preparations for fighting in the Crimea in the spring and summer of 2023. Ukraine is now actively increasing the production of small vessels (from boats and other things ) capable of transporting paratroopers. According to my information, all remaining shipbuilding facilities in Kiev are now at full capacity.
All this suggests that Kiev is planning a large-scale amphibious operation in Crimea in the future. Ukrainian Marines have been completely withdrawn from the frontlines and are actively training under British instructors. Apparently, Crimea will face a new onslaught next year. Kiev, led by the West, is preparing a combined operation to try to seize the peninsula.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19658
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:14 utc | 14
The way to prevent that is to defeat the enemy rather than follow a strategy of withdrawal after withdrawal.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 11 2022 11:08 utc | 12
Unfortunately, time machines have not been invented. The Russian forces have left. But the prediction of Ukrainian war crimes in Kherson hasn't happened yet.
Throughout the conflict Ukrainian forces and Zelensky relied on the giant western propaganda machine to cover for them.
May be this time if word got out, if a critical mass of people are primed for Ukrainian war crimes on Kherson civilians and have it blamed on Russia, they may have second thoughts, anxious about getting caught pants down and might dissuade them.
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 11:17 utc | 15
Well, if Russia now begins to finish the degradation of Ukraine's energy grid, especially in the East, and where Ukrainian forces get marshaled, it will be harder to call that a petulant move, driven by an earlier incompetent performance on the battlefield.
That perception might matter to the non-aligned nations, and those nations that quietly favor Russia. It's best for Russia that the end to the war with Ukraine looks to inevitably be one that will favor them. A few months of Ukraine's forces fighting while the lights go out behind them, and they get ground down in the snow and freezing temperatures by Russia's advantages in armor, aviation, artillery, and missiles, as their economy crumbles while foreign bailouts dwindle, that will do a lot to firm up support for Russia.
Those nations that don't have a view of the world that's based on the reporting of Western media will see the coalition forces attacking Russia for what they are, a representation of what's in store for everyone who'd dare oppose Western globalism.
Russia holding out gives them the breathing room and leverage needed to more freely expand their economies with less fear of foreign intervention.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Nov 11 2022 11:18 utc | 16
... There may be viral videos of Ukraine soldiers performing the war crimes. ...
Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Nov 11 2022 10:59 utc | 7
Zelensky’s heroic reprisal squads will be able to upload their snuff videos via Starlink to their monetised Twitter accounts.
Veneer fascists don’t miss a trick, not even vertical integration.
Posted by: anon2020 | Nov 11 2022 11:18 utc | 17
Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 10:54 utc | 6
"Ukrainian military command will now be having a big headache, wondering where those RF forces will now be redeployed.
Along with General Winter, the AFU now have to deal with General Uncertainty."
I expect the opposite. The NATO-reinforced AFU is riding high with the vim of a strategic victory, Kiev and the empire must be feeling confident of ultimate total victory, they've held the initiative since mid-summer while the Russians lapsed into Sitzkrieg mode, so I expect they're thinking of their next offensive actions. It's the Russians who have long been accepting the passive, reactive role.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 11:22 utc | 18
Indeed. I suspect the Ukrainian offensives will come faster and harder than expected.
The report from VK sounds pessimistic to me.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 11 2022 11:27 utc | 19
https://listverse.com/2021/12/14/top-10-scandals-with-british-intelligence/
and just remember, they were marginalized by the even less competent CIA. the only thing these scandal plagued and incompetent agencies are good at is bribing people. and now they pretend they are informing us about conditions in Russia.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 20
The art of the deal?
@AZgeopolitics
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that he does not see options for Ukraine's accession to NATO in the short term
And I guess the timing of this is just a coincidence.
https://www.ft.com/content/c0b815f3-fd3e-4807-8de7-6b5f72ea8ae5
The US has warned European countries that a conflict over Taiwan would trigger a huge global economic shock, in an effort to step up contingency planning amid rising concern about military action in the Indo-Pacific.The state department has shared research with partners and allies that estimates that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would spark $2.5tn in annual economic losses, according to six people familiar with the material, which was commissioned from the research firm Rhodium Group.
I think a big part of the US Russia deal is that US want to redirect weapons flow from Ukraine to Taiwan. I think it was Ukraine channels said November 1 is the cutoff date. Plenty of smoke covering the deal to try and keep the Europeans in the fight.
Time now for Rand Corp's 2015 paper "War with China - Thinking through the unthinkable".
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 21
If only you kept silent. Odd title for someone in “journalism”.
Posted by: Si tacuisses | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 22
Indeed. I suspect the Ukrainian offensives will come faster and harder than expected.
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 11 2022 11:27 utc | 23
The trolls are replying to thin air now. Try to keep your sock accounts more coordinated, will you?
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 11:36 utc | 23
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 11 2022 10:41 utc | 2
Good threat on Pavlovka. It's plausible that the ukie brigade assigned to held Ugledar and Pavlovka has cracked, major contributing factor has been pinpoint strikes to destroy howitzers in Ugledar heights. This will enable to put an end to UAF grouping SW of Donetsk, and push westward towards Zaporizhe, flanking it from 3 sides and secure Mariupol, Melitopol, Berislav and the Crimean land bridge for good.
The really large question is what will RU and UAF redeployments look like from the western end of Dnieper. Technically UAF can redeploy to these areas somewhat quicker with interior lines. Expect more UAF to pop up in outskirts of Pavlovka and Zaporizhe, but so will more Russians.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 11:43 utc | 24
This was a tremendous Russian victory, just like the Big Bug Out from Dunkirk.
I wonder why Marshal Zhukov didn't adopt this strategy in WW2. He should have just abandoned Moscow, Leningrad, Sevastopol and Stalingrad and withdrawn the Red Army to Vladivostok. Think of the casualties he would have saved!
I don't know why he didn't adopt this novel strategy. Probably just a lack of imagination on his part.
Posted by: paul | Nov 11 2022 11:44 utc | 25
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 11:43 utc | 28
threat... thread
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 11:44 utc | 26
Ukrainian flags have begun to be hung in Kherson. The Ukrainian armed forces have now entered Chernobayevka and the western districts of Kherson.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19703
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:44 utc | 27
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 11:22 utc | 21
Well if as you say Kiev and Washington are deciding strategy on the basis of coke induced euphoria and good feels, I expect they'll be handed their asses in a freezer bag soon enough.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 11:46 utc | 28
Posted by: Si tacuisses | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 26
You'd like him to be silent. So that all that remains is endless clamour of the BBC ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 11:46 utc | 29
We now have more confirmation that US 3 and 4 star generals are crowded with very subpar, below mediocre generals.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 11:48 utc | 30
Who's on Left? to para-phrase Abbot and Costello.
There is a very inconsistent range of terminology to describe the withdrawal.
East/West Bank & Right /Left of the river are most commonly used but neither describes the maneuver with any clarity.
The Dneiper makes almost a 90' turn just before it reaches Kherson and at that point the direction of withdrawal is almost North to South.
East and West seems to refer to an ideological divide.
Right and left of What?
Posted by: intp1 | Nov 11 2022 11:52 utc | 31
Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 11:46 utc | 32
"Well if as you say Kiev and Washington are deciding strategy on the basis of coke induced euphoria and good feels, I expect they'll be handed their asses in a freezer bag soon enough."
However they decide it, it was good enough to drive the Russians out of strategically critical Russian territory and bring a big advance in NATO's invasion of Russia.
Maybe the Russians are deciding strategy based on vodka and timid defeatism.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 11:58 utc | 32
And it looks like that big nuclear power plant is still connected to the 'Ukrainian' grid!
Looks like a reasonably clean withdrawal from low, flat, marshy, delta land which is difficult to defend at best of times and impossible without reliable support lines.
All quiet on the west side of the river and looks like not too many casualties.
At times, warring sides reach quiet deals on the Q T which suits both.
When the power plant was connected --- something did not fit .... Deal?
Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 11 2022 12:00 utc | 33
Posted by: intp1 | Nov 11 2022 11:52 utc | 36
Stop being such an idiot. Right and left are always in relation to the flow of the river; and whatever small "north" or "south" sections are at a bend are still connected to the larger west and east banks of the entire river.
Ah, but it's pointless explaining something so complicated to people who use chill names like "The Bay area" or "Westside" to refer exclusively to america...
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 12:03 utc | 34
The Ukrainians would have to cross 50km of open and flat fields to get to Kherson, during which they'll be sitting ducks. My prediction is that Russia will aim to try and keep them out and/or annihilate any that try, until the ground is frozen solid and all the preparations are ready for the next phase. Then they will cross the Dnieper in 3 or more locations, not just Kherson, simultaneously and in huge numbers, and make a massive blitz over a large area, forcing the way to Nikolaiev and eventually Odessa.
They may make an initial emphasis on moving the Ukrainian forces out of shooting range of the dam.
My assumption and understanding is that the core problem is that inadequate precautions were made to secure Kherson area before Surovikin took over, and that it is not possible to rectify that situation yet. With sufficient forces and firepower, they should be able to return securely.
As Putin said: "We haven't really started yet".
Posted by: BM | Nov 11 2022 12:04 utc | 35
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 11:58 utc | 37
It would have been strategically critical if the RF had the manpower to use it as a springboard towards Odessa. But everyone knew they didn't, so it was just a risky and redundant bridgehead.
As for the the AFU now being able to advance a few km to the cul-de-sac of the Dneipr being "a major advance for NATO's invasion of Russia"; Lol.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 12:07 utc | 36
Re the repositioning of Ukraine and Russian forces. So many fools saying this frees up Ukraine forces to attack elsewhere. The repositioned Russian forces now have secure logistics so it is Russia that is better off and Ukraine worse off by the repositioning.
Also, only very light forces will be required to hold the Dnieper LOC freeing up experienced Russian combat troops to go to Donbas. Freeing all of Donbas is the stated objective of this phase of the SMO.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 12:07 utc | 37
Ppl think that the Wehrmacht was on the brink of defeating the Red Army in December 1941, while in fact the Wehrmacht was a spent force at the time of reaching Moscow. It was exhausted and heavily reduced in combat capabilities by then. The unit of my grandfather, the 489. Infantry Regiment, was tasked with holding a large sector at Zvenigorod, around 40 Km from Moscow. The Red Army broke through their lines in early december, simply because the regiment didnt have enough soldiers to guard the sector.
Being on the offensive means you are losing way more soldiers then the other side. I cant see how the Ukrainian side will keep its brigades effective in the long run. At some point, there wont be enough men, holes will open up and at that time it will go the other way, to the west. Maybe that point comes at 200k dead, maybe at 500k dead, maybe even after 1 mio dead. Ukraine cant sustain losing men over and over again, while Russia can readily replensih everything.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 12:10 utc | 38
Posted by: John Q. Publicke | Nov 11 2022 7:17 utc | 694
Additionally they lead Russia supporters to a dead end by covering the whole mess with false hopes and excuses.
Stalin was some bank robber before becoming Stalin. May be its what's needed instead of a lawyer turned cop.
Posted by: Greg Galloway | Nov 11 2022 12:11 utc | 39
@14 Arch Bungle
No idea about empathy, but there are plenty of videos doing the rounds of Ukrainian forces getting hugged by citizens.
Which isn’t entirely surprising given they are Ukrainian citizens living in a Ukrainian city. Holding a referendum at gunpoint doesn’t change that.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:15 utc | 40
The fat Irish prick may have won the battle but he hasn't won the war.
Posted by: Robert Browning | Nov 11 2022 12:17 utc | 41
Doesn't it strike anyone that this might just be a bit of encouragement to the US and its allies to keep pouring resources into Ukraine until they are completely disarmed, exhausted and bankrupt?
Russia doesn't want to conquer territory and then have to police it while the west organises endless gorilla attacks. Better to keep on keeping on until the west has a complete change of governments who will be trustworthy, and sign binding treaties to prevent this ever happening again.
Posted by: Stevelancs | Nov 11 2022 12:17 utc | 42
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:15 utc | 48
Does that include the tens of thousands who left with the Russians Army for Crimea?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 12:18 utc | 43
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 12:10 utc | 45
I think the Polish mercenaries are increasingly carrying the burden of the war. That and the UAF mobilization, there may be up to 100k mercenaries and 700-1000k ukies in service.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 12:18 utc | 44
The withdrawal of our troops and the build-up of combat initiative on the part of the AFU may pose a threat of transferring hostilities to the Crimean region as well. This is evidenced by the enemy's preparations for fighting in the Crimea in the spring and summer of 2023. Ukraine is now actively increasing the production of small vessels (from boats and other things ) capable of transporting paratroopers. According to my information, all remaining shipbuilding facilities in Kiev are now at full capacity.All this suggests that Kiev is planning a large-scale amphibious operation in Crimea in the future. Ukrainian Marines have been completely withdrawn from the frontlines and are actively training under British instructors. Apparently, Crimea will face a new onslaught next year. Kiev, led by the West, is preparing a combined operation to try to seize the peninsula.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19658
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:14 utc | 15
Why have those shipbuilding facilities not been blown up yet? It's not as if they are hidden...
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 12:19 utc | 45
No doubt the momentum has shifted to Ukraine/NATO's favor. The Russians are basically playing defense with slight advances by the Wagner group. I don't see much evidence that this is a strategy for winning as the Ukrainians are more than willing and capable to keep sending men and equipment into the grinder for several more years. The Russians are going to have to show that they want this more than the Ukrainians (both sides show strong support for their sides) and are willing to take the losses necessary to win and win decisively or they should start negotiating for terms.
Posted by: Douglas | Nov 11 2022 12:21 utc | 46
Now that the Russians have acknowledged the Dnieper as a boundary and have blown both the bridges that Ukraine tried to destroy for months, how long before the remainder of the bridges across the Dnieper get the same treatment and the Kiev troops in the East find out for themselves what it is like to have no supply lines.
Posted by: Pancho Plail | Nov 11 2022 12:21 utc | 47
Posted by: intp1 | Nov 11 2022 11:52 utc | 36
The Right Bank is ALWAYS the bank on the right of the down -flowing stream or river towards the sea , and the Left bank is the Bank to the left of the stream or river flowing toward the sea. Doesn’t matter how many turns or meanders a river makes.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 11 2022 12:07 utc | 44
Many have said that Ukies can and do already hit the bridges of the escaping Russians so I doubt the Russians will have safer logistics. By escaping to the Left Bank ,the Russians have also left the Crimean Canal open to Ukrainian Fire-control. If things don’t change, I expect the canal to be cut , and Crimea to turn into a dustbowl as it was previous to the 2015 Liberation by Russia.
Posted by: BM | Nov 11 2022 12:04 utc | 41
If Russia cant protect the bridges over the Dneiper now ,it will be harder to do so later. The Dneiper down here freezes infrequently , and much later than up North so it seems it will be a barrier to a Russian counteroffensive as well.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Nov 11 2022 12:22 utc | 48
"Re the repositioning of Ukraine and Russian forces. So many fools saying this frees up Ukraine forces to attack elsewhere. The repositioned Russian forces now have secure logistics so it is Russia that is better off and Ukraine worse off by the repositioning."
Tell me again how a Himarsbase in Kherson able to strike Crimea secures logistics for the russians?
Posted by: Fnord73 | Nov 11 2022 12:25 utc | 49
@45 Arne Hartmann
… while Russia can readily replensih everything.
Clearly Russia cannot, neither in manpower or hardware. If it could they wouldn’t be shipping in Iranian drones, North Korean shells and/or clothing. Nor are Russians going to accept a high rate of casualties over an ill-judged war in another country.
Why would ordinary Russian citizens accept deaths of their own solely for the sake of one man’s vanity? Nor are they interested in ‘challenging Western hegemony and the overthrow of the US dollar’ if it involves them standing knee deep in mud and getting shelled into the next life.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:26 utc | 50
Douglas
Indeed, the war by Russia seems to be done half-heartedly with Wagner and forced conscripts from Donbass/Luhansk, those conscripts are of course no problem for Nato trained ukrainian soldiers. Terrible outcome for Russia of course.
Weirdly in Syria Russia have no problem using their fighter jets pounding terror-groups, but in Ukraine they are not using any such powerful weapon and thus fail time and time again by using cannon fodder soldiers into the battlfield.
Russian warplanes hit targets in northwest Syria
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/10/russian-warplanes-hit-targets-northwest-syria
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 12:27 utc | 51
On the topic of diplomacy, Russia studies, and Odessa, an excellent discussion between S. Ritter and R. McGovern:
Mid-Terms 2022 | Ukraine fears election impact | Surovikin's Kherson plan
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=zzOwNdaedvM
Posted by: Browser | Nov 11 2022 12:27 utc | 52
It is an understandable mistake. Guys like Milley are always looking at what the USA can do, and assumes that nobody does it better.
It took Milley's clown car two weeks to evacuate from Kabul.
QED: it'll take the Russians at least that long, if not much longer.
Underling: "Err, it's done, sir"
Milley: "What's done?"
Underling: "The Russian evacuation from Kherson".
Milley: "When?"
Underling: "They started when you got up to speak, and they completed it when you said 'Good evening, everyone' "
Milley: "I? What? How?"
Underling: "We still don't know, sir. The consensus is that the Russian General Staff knows what it is doing".
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 11 2022 12:29 utc | 53
“Posted by: Si tacuisses | Nov 11 2022 11:34 utc | 26
You'd like him to be silent. So that all that remains is endless clamour of the BBC ...
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 11:46 utc | 33”
Definitely want this website to remain open. My favorite bar. Pretty sure you don’t know the history I have with it. Although under a different screen name I’ve been banned everywhere from using.
Posted by: Phi | Nov 11 2022 12:31 utc | 54
Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 12:07 utc | 42
"It would have been strategically critical if the RF had the manpower to use it as a springboard towards Odessa. But everyone knew they didn't, so it was just a risky and redundant bridgehead."
It is strategically critical whether or not the Russians at the moment had the manpower to first hold it and then attack from it. And if they lacked this manpower they needed to reinforce it, not retreat.
But I don't see how it was that every day the Russian war department press releases were describing the same shooting gallery in the Kherson region with every Ukrainian attack repulsed with heavy losses, and yet the position was untenable and had to be abandoned, and yet NOW the Ukrainians are entering the REAL trap. Why would they be more vulnerable sheltering in the city, no doubt with lots of civilian shields, than out on the steppe where they were until yesterday?
None of that latter part rings true. I haven't seen any convincing argument for why the retreat was necessary. (That's assuming the basic veracity of the Russians' own reports and all the hype about Russian military capabilities, even though they evidently squandered their initial air supremacy by giving NATO all the time in the world to arm the AFU with effective anti-aircraft weapons.)
I impute it to nervous failure at the top, if not worse.
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 12:32 utc | 55
@51 and 52
Russian troops invaded and occupied a Ukrainian city and then held a ‘referendum’. Any vote under foreign military occupation is literally ‘at gunpoint’.
I imagine some citizens sympathetic to Russia did indeed flee with Russian troops, especially if they collaborated, and good luck to them. They made a choice and they stand by it. Those that identify themselves as Ukrainian will be the ones that stay and welcome the Ukrainian forces.
Neither of these points are controversial to any fair minded observer.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:34 utc | 56
Another day, more dead fascists....
🇷🇺Summary of the Ministry of Defense of Russia on the situation in the zone of the special operation:
◽️In the Kherson direction today at 5 o'clock in the morning Moscow time, the transfer of units of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper River was completed. Not a single unit of military equipment and weapons on the right bank was left. All Russian servicemen crossed to the left bank of the Dnieper. Losses of personnel, weapons, military equipment and materiel of the Russian group of troops were not allowed.
◽️During the night, the enemy tried to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. On the crossings of the Dnieper River during the night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were struck 5 blows from the HIMARS MLRS.
💥Russian air defenses shot down 28 rockets. Another five rockets were successfully deflected from their targets by electronic warfare.
💥The fire of Russian artillery, air strikes and the use of mine-explosive obstacles, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were stopped at a distance of 30-40 kilometers from the area of crossings over the Dnieper River.
💥Loitering ammunition "Lancet" and the fire of multiple launch rocket systems destroyed three American towed howitzers M777, two infantry fighting vehicles and three enemy pickups during the day.
💥In addition, more than twenty Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, two self-propelled guns and three armored personnel carriers exploded on minefields.
▪️ In the Kupyansk direction,3 company tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made unsuccessful attempts to launch an offensive from the areas of Yagodne, Kislovka and Volodymyrivka, Kharkiv region. The enemy was stopped and pushed back to their original positions. Morethan 120 Ukrainian militants, 2 tanks, 3 BMPs, 2 armored personnel carriers and 5 vehicles were destroyed.
▪️ In the Krasnolimansky direction, the active actions of the units of the Russian troops and the preemptive fire of artillery thwarted the attack of two companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, reinforced by Polish mercenaries, in the direction of the villages of Chervonopopovka and Ploschanka of the LPR.
▪️Enemy losses amounted to up to 90 Ukrainian militants and mercenaries killed and wounded, 1 AFV.
▪️ In the South-Donetsk direction,attempts by motorized infantry companies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to counterattack in the direction of the village of Sladkoe of the DPR were stopped.
💥 Artillery and army aviation destroyedmore than 65 Ukrainian militants, 1 tank and 4 armored personnel carriers.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery during the day hitninepoints of control of the Armed Forces of Ukrainein the areas of Novaya Kamenka, Pravdino, Kherson region, Novopetrovka, Ternivnye Pody of the Mykolaiv region, Ivanovka, Krakhmalne of the Kharkiv region, Bakhmutske, Kleshcheyevka, and Novoselka of the DPR, as well as 52 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 176 districts.
💥In the area of the city of Nikolaev, anammunition depot of the28th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed.
💥During the counter-battery struggle, aplatoon of American towed howitzers M777in the area of Zolochiv, Kharkiv region, was suppressed. In addition, in the area of the village of Nevskoye LPR, a platoon of Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers "Acacia" was suppressed.
💥 Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forcesin the area of the village of Mirovka, Zaporozhye region, shot down a Mi-8 helicopter of the Air Force.
💥Air defense means shot downseven unmanned aerial vehicles during the day in the areas of the settlements of Golikovo, Krasnorechenske, Krivosheyevka of the Lugansk People's Republic, Makarovka, Nikolske and Kirillovka of the DPR.
💥In addition, 32 shells of the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system were destroyed in the airin the areas of the settlements of Novaya Kakhovka, Korsunka and Antonovka of the Kherson region, as well as five American HARM anti-radar missiles in the areas of the settlements of Irmino of the Lugansk People's Republic, Yenakiieve of the Donetsk People's Republic, Korsunka and Nova Kakhovka of the Kherson region.
📊 In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 333 aircraft, 174 helicopters, 2486 unmanned aerial vehicles, 388 anti-aircraft missile systems, 6511 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 885 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3569 field artillery pieces and mortars, as well as 7166 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.
t.me/rusvesnasu
Posted by: Saint Jimmy | Nov 11 2022 12:35 utc | 57
Ukraine won't survive 24h without shipping everything from USA and vassals. Everything. That is the deal - they would exchange the 16-70 year old males and now females too in exchange for EU/USA funding 100 % of the budget in tune of $100 billion plus all the cost of weapons, even electric generators etc.
Economically Russia did win. However, the problem is Nato will still creep into Ukraine and install their air defense and nukes.
This is an industrial war. Tens of thousands of drones must be produced to destroy tens of thousands Nato howitzers, APCs, tanks, air defense systems etc. That's how it just is.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 12:37 utc | 58
@61 Zanon
Hardly weird. In Ukraine, which is peer v peer conflict, the opposing side have the ability to defend against, and destroy, Russian planes. Hence, they aren’t used that much.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:38 utc | 59
@9 Julian: "What will be the next part of Russian territory that the Russian armed forces withdraw from to avoid casualties?!?"
Hard to tell. But the Russians are funny that way: they'll withdraw if there is no strategic imperative to stay. And then they come back.
Napoleon slogged his way to Moscow in 1812, and found that the Russian army had just up and left.
Mind you, in 1814 Alexander was marching up the Champs_Elysees at the head of his army. Napoleon was nowhere to be seen, which I suppose is fair enough.
But only one got the last laugh.
By all accounts Alexander had a fine ol' time in Paris: he always liked the city, though he didn't think much of the rudeness of the French. Still, the Champagne was excellent, and the dancing was divine.
"ZNPP?!?"
Very possibly. Don't forget that it is far, far more important to the Ukrainians than to the Russians. Indeed, vital to Ukrainian electricity needs.
So, yeah, I could imagine the Russians deciding that fighting over that Nuclear Power Plant involves a catastrophic risk that they don't need, so let the coke-fueled crazy midget have it.
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 11 2022 12:41 utc | 60
The British are busy again re. Crimea - they have never forgiven that Irishman Peter Lacy for grabbing it for the Russian Empire in late 18th century.
Partisans on the way to Crimea ....
Leaked documents: British spies constructing secret terror army in Ukraine - The Grayzone
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/11/03/british-spies-terror-army-ukraine/
Posted by: Don Firineach | Nov 11 2022 12:41 utc | 61
Posted by: moaobserver | Nov 11 2022 10:41 utc | 2
Great thread. Thank you. I now for first time begin to understand why RF hasn't been able to stop the shelling in Donetsk.
My assumption and understanding is that the core problem is that inadequate precautions were made to secure Kherson area before Surovikin took over, and that it is not possible to rectify that situation yet. With sufficient forces and firepower, they should be able to return securely.
The problems were:
First, they didn't take Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog because of insufficient forces deployed in those directions and some errors made there in the early days. That would have secured the river crossings by taking them out of artillery range.
Second, Ukraine's own MRLS systems had been largely destroyed and they had no PGMs for those anyway, but then the HIMARS were sent, and this was one of the specific purposes. And the Russians didn't do enough to stop those deliveries.
And here we are.
However:
My prediction is that Russia will aim to try and keep them out and/or annihilate any that try, until the ground is frozen solid and all the preparations are ready for the next phase. Then they will cross the Dnieper in 3 or more locations, not just Kherson, simultaneously and in huge numbers, and make a massive blitz over a large area, forcing the way to Nikolaiev and eventually Odessa.[...]
As Putin said: "We haven't really started yet".
Posted by: BM | Nov 11 2022 12:04 utc | 41
I am going into armchair general mode with this, but people need to look at the map carefully. From Nikolaev to Odessa it is not an open field. Far from it, it is a series of 4-5 long estuaries, each wider than the Dnieper at Kherson, that are difficult to cross. So going along the coast wasn't really viable, plus you need to protect the flank, which is very long and exposed towards core Banderistan.
They would have to make a push for Pervomaisk (which they did in the first days, but it failed), connect with Transnistria and establish a stable defense line there, isolate Odessa that way, and only then siege it. And it can't really be fought over because it is an open-air museum, it has to be preserved from physical destruction. The whole situation is one giant hostage operation -- NATO plus the Ukronazis holding Ukrainian citizens, especially the Russian portion, hostage, and thus preventing the Russians from waging real war -- but nowhere is this more symbolically concentrated in one place than it is in Odessa.
Still, even if you have taken Odessa and Nikolaev, there is that large exposed flank to the north, towards core Banderistan, and this is not stable, it would have to be secured somehow.
It may in fact be easier to cut Ukraine in half west of Kiev and get to Odessa that way. There is basically nothing there but open fields, no fortifications, no large cities other than Zhytomyr and Vynnytsia, which aren't really that big to begin with, and can be bypassed. As I have noted many times, there is no stable peace that does not involve the reincorporation of the whole of Ukraine back into Russia and then doing both denazification and de-Ukrainization from within the borders of the RF. Russians have to reach the NATO border and raise the new Iron Curtain, so that we get out of this twisted perverse situation in which NATO is fighting from behind the back of the Ukrainians and the Russians can't strike back for fear of bringing the end of the world. Otherwise there will be perpetual war and nuclear blackmail from NATO and Russia is finished.
If that is obvious to us armchair observers here, it has to be understood in the Kremlin too.
So maybe there is indeed a plan to take Odessa eventually from the North as part of some grand operation.
The problem is that the current 300,000 mobilized are not sufficient for that. You need WWII-level forces for such big arrows moves. And you need real testicular fortitude, which so far there is no evidence for the presence of.
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 12:43 utc | 63
@61 Zanon "Weirdly in Syria Russia have no problem using their fighter jets pounding terror-groups, but in Ukraine they are not using any such powerful weapon and thus fail time and time again by using cannon fodder soldiers into the battlfield."
By your own admission one is a collection of "terror-groups", the other is an enemy army that has had eight years of supply and training from NATO.
Why is it "weird" that one of these things is not like the other?
Posted by: Yeah, Right | Nov 11 2022 12:45 utc | 64
Ukraine is hanging on a thread supplied by the west. West is finding difficult with each passing day to maintain support and economic growth. By playing a long game, Russia is creating a war fatigue. West has already destroyed its economy in an effort to destroy Russia. By challenging China, they are just edging towards losing all the influence they have in the world.
Regarding Kherson, Russia withdrew all the pro-Russian civilians as well as their military,equipment in good order. With the coming winter, those civilians will be comfortable living in other parts whereas the same cannot be said about Ukraine. This can potentially create a refugee crisis turning Europe into a chaotic place at the time of declining economy.
We need to wait for ground to harden to see what will be the next move of Russia.
Posted by: Ankit Khandelwal | Nov 11 2022 12:53 utc | 65
The problem is that the current 300,000 mobilized are not sufficient for that. You need WWII-level forces for such big arrows moves. And you need real testicular fortitude, which so far there is no evidence for the presence of.
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 12:43 utc | 76
Thanks. Great armchair Generalship.
Another element: attrition both of NATO and Ukraine. They are going to have increasingly softer internals making their testicular fortitude go wobbly. Odessa may well be taken at the end by plebiscite after Ukraine has fallen completely.
The Poles will get Galicia; Z has already as good as announced it. Which implies he knows Ukraine will fall. Which begs the question: so why are they all still fighting?
Strange conflict...
@61 Zanon
Hardly weird. In Ukraine, which is peer v peer conflict, the opposing side have the ability to defend against, and destroy, Russian planes. Hence, they aren’t used that much.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:38 utc | 71
That ... and why use precious airplanes when you can send in cheap drones to eradicate targets just as well?! But zanon won't listen anyway.
As for Kherson city, much of this war has been about preserving life, be it civilian or pro-Russian/Russian soldiers' lives. Likewise, that bridgehead was of - by comaprison - low importance to the allied troops and getting the river inbetween them and any approaching UkroNato forces, will stop their advance too.
We have yet to see the deployment of large quantities of the new conscripts or them Chechen volunteers either, or any more advanced Russian weaponry.
What is often neglected by the likes of rk or zanon in their harping about this or that Russian "failure" is that Russia and the allies have time on their side. And they hardly care whether the West or some local trolls deem this or that retreat or loss of people a "humiliation" or whatnot. It's not some game of football ... and even if, the season's long and the winner is proclaimed at the end.
Posted by: CM of Berlin | Nov 11 2022 12:59 utc | 67
Military summary channel and other sources indicate that RU forces maintain a large West Bank presence North of Kherson. It does not seem that the situation is as simple as a complete RU withdrawal from the Dneiper West Bank.
Posted by: Ralph Conner | Nov 11 2022 13:00 utc | 68
Nine months in and Donesk city still being shelled by the Ukies,...really?
Putin's slow moving limited military operation is/was a huge blunder and a failure, you don't invade a country with limited resources and manpower. Stupid move.
Posted by: Hannibal | Nov 11 2022 13:01 utc | 69
Tom UK |
Of course not, it is is because of the fighter jets, missiles etc that Russia is stronger than Ukraine, but Russia never use its power and thus fail time and time again.
Cm of Berlin
Russia and their allies (who?) have nor the time nor economy on their side. US,EU can support Ukraine with high tech weapon and cash for decades if they want, Russia seems already depleted on both and thus fail and fail again. You can tell yourself differently but reality dont care about your denialist feelings.
Posted by: Zanon | Nov 11 2022 13:04 utc | 70
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:26 utc | 60
Of course Russia can replenish everything, lost material and soldiers. Look at the male population of Ukraine and Russia to see the discrepancy in escalation dominance. Russia has mobilized 300k men in one wave, Ukraine had 8+ waves. Where should the next Ukrainian waves come from? The refugees that went to the EU? Do you think they come back to be used as cannon fodder? Russia can do wave after wave after, while Ukraine is already at its limits.
War is a game of math. You allocate ressources to sectors that will be able to achieve the given task, that is being done by the General staffers. What will the Ukrainian staffers do, when they simply dont have enough ressources to allocate? They will stop giving attack orders to save capabilities. At that point, they will regret to have wasted so many dead soldiers in attack after attack. Winning a war is about beating the army, territory comes with that or with a peace treaty. Territory in itself doesnt win anything.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 13:09 utc | 71
Kherson is not private property that Putin or anyone else can negotiate for sale, exchange, etc. Russia is fighting NATO, which is using the Ukrainian army to tie down significant Russian forces in the east of the country while NATO plans to enter the western part with its own forces. The Russians made a great move and adjusted/shortened the length of the front according to their human available forces, while 300,000 mobilized easily counterbalances the nato adventurers. Kherson is a dead end for the Ukrainian army. Now there will probably be a regrouping of forces and thus a greater concentration of forces on a shorter front, which will result in greater losses. Especially on the Ukrainian side. Another thing is that the Ukrainian army will be located on the territory of the Russian Federation and if Russia wants to test new weapons on its own territory, who cares. They have the right to that. Third, all military decisions of the Russian army should be seen in the context of the current military conflict with NATO. NATO countries have several times the economic base of Russia despite the current crisis. The degradation of the economic power of the NATO countries is an indispensable part of the planning of the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation. Just my opinion which may be totally wrong :-)
Posted by: Sanjin | Nov 11 2022 13:12 utc | 72
More than 800 comments just because Russia makes a tactical move; it sends lots of trolls in hysterics...makes one sigh in relief that there weren't any blogs in WOII...And why depict Shoigu as a schoolboy that needs to come home with better marks? Russia is indeed fighting NATO now, that's the pig that doesn't need any lipstick on it. The hypocrisy of the West is just staggering - and that of its trolls here as well...
Posted by: anthony | Nov 11 2022 13:14 utc | 73
They write to us:
"The plan of the West" to fight to the last Ukrainian "is being fulfilled
A summons came to a pregnant girl from Odessa.
Probably Zelensky shared nonsense with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and they decided that in the field 2 people are better than one."
https://t.me/ukraina_ru/115281
Ukraine sending military summons to pregnant girls. You understand now, there is no future.
Posted by: unimperator | Nov 11 2022 13:19 utc | 74
Posted by: anthony | Nov 11 2022 13:14 utc | 73
Russia is fighting NATO equipment staffed by Ukrainians who will keep dying until there is no Ukrainian left.
Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Nov 11 2022 13:21 utc | 75
Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Nov 11 2022 12:32 utc | 67
It diesn't matter how good the LOC troops were at repulsing AFU attacks. The loss of the Antonevsky bridge was inevitable, and the risk of catastrophe if the dam was blown was high.
Reinforcing the bridgehead would only have been useful if enough troops we're being amassed to use it to drive towards Odessa. In which case the attack on the dam would have gone from high risk to certainty. Tactical withdrawal was the correct move, well timed, and well executed.
Posted by: Gt Stroller | Nov 11 2022 13:26 utc | 76
I havent quite understood why the 101st airborne are introduced...
what possible purpose will they have.
does it indicate an airiel movement to secure airfields....
Odessa, asa port is now a beached whale...basically useless.
USA/NATO warships cannot use the dardenelles and would be sitting ducks in the black sea.
US aircraft carriers can only operate from the adriatic...
what am i missing.
Posted by: harryash | Nov 11 2022 13:29 utc | 77
The decision had most probably been made earlier and most of the troops had already been withdrawn when the video was released. It takes days, but the Stavka isn't only made up of complete idiots, specially now with Surovikin.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Nov 11 2022 13:29 utc | 78
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:14 utc | 14
Ya, sure. Dream on.
Have you ever considered the possibility that Russian troops may blow up Nova Kakhovka Dam instead? After all, that was one of the Russian military concerns which precipitated this withdrawal.
Posted by: KitaySupporter | Nov 11 2022 13:34 utc | 79
Or as some other wittery goes :
‘ Best to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and be proven one! ‘
—————-
Many posters here still can’t get their heads around basic geographic labels and realities.
Durn fooles 😂
A ‘Left’ bank can be the West or East, North or South banks!
As can the ‘Right’ bank.
It’s all about the FLOW. Just get it ffs, you morons.
———————
Rope-a-dope is over - an overwhelming points victory, numbers of punches landed are wholly one sided, numbers of casualties clearly show it. Amounts of non-collateral on either sides clearly show it. Remaining air superiority clearly shows it.
Unconditional surrender is the only way for the Nazi owners and masters.
The G20 will eclipse the defunct G7 as its centre of gravity moves towards the inevitable.
If the ukrop crazies are forced to carry on receiving such blows they will not come out of the ‘ring’ alive. Maybe that is what their masters want - no pesky evidence left.
Rope-A-Pope is going to surrender formally, finally after millenia.
Africa/South America/South East Asia are fully going to drop out of the Ancients murderous thieving enslaving hands hidden behind so much religious cover - their Jesuit stormtroopers, fascists, Nazis, masons and other masks - dropped and destroyed .
Ah, a braver new world than THEIR planned dystopia arises - what a time to be alive as the epochal changes happen (as per Xi)
As winter starts the spring is already lining up. Good day honest barflies, have a fine weekend.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Nov 11 2022 13:41 utc | 80
Ok. Not trolling. It looks like overall, NATO has been proven right & more reliable, and Russia just plain incompetent– probably because it's government is in the hands of kleptocratic oligarchs (the new czars), for whom the Russian people mean nothing (contrast with China). The question is, Will NATO again be proved right regarding Crimea and its eventual recovery by Ukraine, or is that literally a bridge too far, even for NATO?
Posted by: Ludovic | Nov 11 2022 13:42 utc | 81
Posted by: Ludovic | Nov 11 2022 13:42 utc | 81
"Ok. Not trolling. "
Yeah right.
"It looks like overall, NATO has been proven right"
To be "right", they have to be right about *something*.
What is the "something" NATO was "right" about?
"& more reliable,"
What were they more reliable about?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 11 2022 13:51 utc | 82
if one uses the weather asa military barometer and the fact that the ground becomes rock-hard first along the Dnieper from kiev in the north...and one commentator stated that the ground rarely freezes severely in kherson....then it becomes naturally apparent to encircle kiev and slowly move downriver.
Assuming that the river will be the new russian border....then the occupation of kiev will basically capitulate the war.....this in tandem with Dniepro (the chabad lubavitich centre)...I consider kharkiv irrelevant.
Is my thinking delusional....
Posted by: harryash | Nov 11 2022 13:52 utc | 83
The main objectives of the Russian military operation were the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. Another objective was to push NATO's military infrastructure away from Russia's borders. After almost nine months of military operations, the Russian military has failed to achieve any of the stated objectives. Russia clearly cannot impose her will on Ukraine and the West by force of arms. Therefore it is quite obvious that Russia has already lost the war. No other interpretation makes sense.
Posted by: Jay | Nov 11 2022 13:54 utc | 84
@73 you dencounce others concerning trolls , i call you a Putin cheer boy. it's just Kremlin propaganda to call this withdrawal a tactical retreat, tell me why put Russia so much effforts including a refendreum to integrate Kherson ? To make it all pointless in the end? wow what a tactical move.
maybe it's up to you to understand that the withdrawals from Kharkow oblast and Kherson are nothig but defeats
Posted by: publicdisorder | Nov 11 2022 13:54 utc | 85
The Ukrainians would have to cross 50km of open and flat fields to get to Kherson, during which they'll be sitting ducks. My prediction is that Russia will aim to try and keep them out and/or annihilate
Posted by: BM | Nov 11 2022 12:04 utc | 35
They already are Kherson, taking selfies and photos with some locals.
Also clown Medvedev appeared today. He said "concept of territorial sovereignty has not disappeared". Bla bla
Posted by: rk | Nov 11 2022 13:56 utc | 86
Left vs Right Bank
I never knew there was a convention to label sides of a river in this manner.
It looks like the convention is to face where the river is flowing to make that determination. Makes sense even though looking at a map, I could see this confusing people.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Nov 11 2022 13:57 utc | 87
Clearly Russia cannot, neither in manpower or hardware. If it could they wouldn’t be shipping in Iranian drones, North Korean shells and/or clothing.Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:26 utc | 50
You're saying that Russia must stop exports from friendly countries just to satisfy some unspecified, nebulous criteria of domestic production that you, not Russia itself, have set? Idiot. You people are way overrated in terms of intelligence. How's the weather today in Tel Aviv?
Why would ordinary Russian citizens accept deaths of their own solely for the sake of one man’s vanity?
Funny, no one in Russia thinks that way.
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 13:57 utc | 88
Excellent work by Surovikin. He has shown he is in complete control and that he values his troops.
This portends for future operations.
Good Leadership is vital.
Posted by: HERMIUS | Nov 11 2022 13:58 utc | 89
I havent quite understood why the 101st airborne are introduced...
Posted by: harryash | Nov 11 2022 13:29 utc | 77
They were announced many months ago, spread in multiple countries to "defend nato borders". Some here and on other sites twisted the story of their arrival, making it some sort of sudden decision. It's US and France's interest to send soldiers to slave countries because that's how they make money. The host pays for everything, it's not a gift. France is also building a new base in Romania.
Posted by: rk | Nov 11 2022 14:01 utc | 90
'The west generally speaking started off enthusiastically supporting Zelensky, blindly following pre-arranged M S M propaganda (flags and collections)
Fast forward to present time.
The very people the west public supported where are they now ?
Hundred thousand dead used as cannon fodder by the British and American warmongers.
Millions fled the country as refugees
(Mainly the wealthy or connected)
My point is the world sees this, its reality,
Zelensky power is fast evaporating,
Few now will want to stand with him.
A toxic brand.
To many bodies buried.
His disproportionate power was on loan.
An illusion.
Posted by: Mark2 | Nov 11 2022 14:04 utc | 91
Any vote under foreign military occupation is literally ‘at gunpoint’.
Posted by: Tom UK | Nov 11 2022 12:34 utc | 56
Interesting argument. That goes for every country in the world then, except Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. I'm sure Sweden, for example, has 10x more armed foreign fighters than it has police or military, and those police and military don't serve the Swedish either.
And what about votes in places where every single parliament member, election candidate, bureaucrat, minister and government leader is at gunpoint from US+israhell? Better than the Donbass referendums?
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 14:09 utc | 92
Therefore it is quite obvious that Russia has already lost the war. No other interpretation makes sense.
Posted by: Jay | Nov 11 2022 13:54 utc | 84
Yeah, you already said that three days after the special operation started in February. Now quit hooting and whining.
Posted by: Jusses | Nov 11 2022 14:27 utc | 93
This entire SMO up to now still looks like a reconnaissance in force to me, feeling out the enemy and shaping of the battlespace, as they say, and I agree if it is not settled soon, the real war starts early next spring.
This move here in Kherson looks like preparation for that.
Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 11 2022 14:29 utc | 94
The Russians tied up half of the Ukrainian army then destroyed the counter attack with a dam breach. Then destoyed them again, then left. They added many Ukrainian soldiers to the Russian army and gained a lot of women and children to the population
I have no doubt they won that round.
It could be a long long war, neither side is short on weapons. The Russians must have captured huge stockpiles when the war started.
Did the entire Kherson army join them? Something fishy happened.
Posted by: OhhCanada | Nov 11 2022 14:29 utc | 95
This situation is beyond ridiculous. We have entered the age of illusion.
The Russian army has definitively become a laughing stock. Overpowered,outmanned, outthought. For 6 months we haven't seen even the premises of a coherent offensive plan.
All we see are braindead, stupid attempts to attack strongholds directly, without any meaningful results. So that every day you can see another bombastic message on Intelslava, "Russian army destroys Ukrainian militants near Ugledar, or Maryinka, or Artemovsk..."
For 9 months already the Russians haven't managed to advance more than a few kilometers in the Donbass. It's pitiful. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are mounting large operational moves and retaking the whole Kherson area, as well as huge swathes in the North.
Lies, so many lies and fairytales. Fairytales and hearsay about "huge Ukrainian losses". Nobody has any clue about it, it's just hearsay based on anonymous TG posts but the whole pro-Russian camp swallows it and spews it forth, as if repeating an unproven claim 1000 times will make it true somehow.
Based on all the available evidence here is the most probable scenario :
- The Ukrainians have had overall moderate losses which have absolutely not dented their offensive capability, as well as their defensive capability, as evidenced by the fact they are able to defend their ring of fortresses in the East at ease, while chasing the Russians out of the Dniepr west bank.
- The Ukrainians, thanks to Nato, have a massive advantage in precision artillery, as well as anti-aircraft missiles. They are able to neuter the Russian air force without breaking a sweat.
- The Ukrainians, aided by NATO, are probably able to continue this fight for years.
- The Russian army, on the other hand, has been eviscerated and has no meaningful reserves, as evidenced by the fact they have to mobilize 35 to 50-years old, rely on PMC, and do a ridiculous hiring tour in prisons just to somehow plug the gaps in the front line.
-The Russian matériel supply is drying up. All they had was a big mass of old rusty tanks, sprinkled with a handful of more modern ones, and most of them has been destroyed or has broken up. The Russian military industry, at least the part that isn't a massive boondoggle, is more akin to a few artisanal repair shops than a real military-industrial complex. They know how to produce a few interesting toys, but nowhere near the volume that would be necessary for a modern war.
As such, we can confidently predict that as time goes by, the Russian army stocks will dwindle, rendering the Russians more and more desperate. We can see signs of it already ; between the Russian ambassador whining about the big bad Americans, to Maria Zakharova blabbering about negociations. They sound like poor whining little boys. "Boohoo the Americans are naughty ! They are supplying the Ukrainians with weapons ! That's not fair ! Could we negotiate please ? Please ? " What a weak ass bunch. They just didn't have the stomach for the fight, and Putin is living in his own bubble.
Posted by: Micron | Nov 11 2022 14:30 utc | 96
Re: Posted by: Micron | Nov 11 2022 14:30 utc | 102
The last meaningful Russian advance was over 4 months ago in early July - Severodonetsk & Lysychansk.
Just a fact.
Nothing but retreating since then.
Posted by: Julian | Nov 11 2022 14:36 utc | 97
if one uses the weather asa military barometer and the fact that the ground becomes rock-hard first along the Dnieper from kiev in the north...and one commentator stated that the ground rarely freezes severely in kherson....then it becomes naturally apparent to encircle kiev and slowly move downriver. Assuming that the river will be the new russian border....then the occupation of kiev will basically capitulate the war.....this in tandem with Dniepro (the chabad lubavitich centre)...I consider kharkiv irrelevant.Is my thinking delusional....
Posted by: harryash | Nov 11 2022 13:52 utc | 83
I have hard time seeing how a win can be secured through a pure east-to-west push.
And the river isn't a stable border -- Kiev spans it, though the governmental buildings are on the right/west bank, as do Kremenchuk, Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye further downstream. Even if we imagine the Russians somehow getting their act together and taking everything east of the river, that's just not a stable situation.
But again, given the unwillingness to fight seriously demonstrated so far, it is pure fantasy to expect either that or a north-to-south push from Belarus right now...
The current 300K mobilized are simply not enough for a proper big-arrow offensive. If the rumors are true and they really mobilized a million, then yeah, that might work. But 300K? Not enough.
Posted by: Tbx | Nov 11 2022 14:37 utc | 98
All this suggests that Kiev is planning a large-scale amphibious operation in Crimea in the future. Ukrainian Marines have been completely withdrawn from the frontlines and are actively training under British instructors. Apparently, Crimea will face a new onslaught next year. Kiev, led by the West, is preparing a combined operation to try to seize the peninsula.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/19658
Posted by: Down South | Nov 11 2022 11:14 utc | 14
No amphibious assault can happen without large numbers of boats accompanied by air support. Military boats are denied access under the Montreaux Convention. Surely the folks at Slavyangrad know this.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Nov 11 2022 14:38 utc | 99
You know the way some folk blame Gorbachev and Yeltsin for destroying Russia? I sometimes think they destroyed the USA even more. Russia has pretty well recovered. But by depriving the USA of an enemy they seem to have driven it into insanity. A divided insanity. Some there seem to have realized that and are trying to recreate an enemy. To unite the country. UFOs and aliens would work as well as Russia/China. But I think it's too late. The boys sipping pumpkin spice lattes are hardly going to join the MAGA lot and the body-positive gang are hardly going to vote for Margory Taylor Green. I think of it as Gorby's revenge. Like Montezuma's revenge - only more debilitating nationally. Just compare Truman through Reagan to Clinton through Biden. It's not just presidents but even more so the folk that they surround themselves with. Like General Mark Milley
Posted by: Guy L'Estrange | Nov 11 2022 14:40 utc | 100
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Surovikin has pulled off a successful tactical surprise. Withdrawals are difficult and dangerous.
Posted by: Theophilus | Nov 11 2022 10:33 utc | 1