Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Please stick to the topic. Contribute facts. Do not attack other commentators.

Zelensky's lies about the Ukrainian missile strike in Poland have damaged his credibility.

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We can hope that the media will now be more careful when they report of all the other lies Zelensky and his team are uttering on a daily base.

News & views not related the war in Ukraine …

A factual assessment:

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical – 19:41 UTC · Nov 15, 2022

The missile(s) that impacted Polish territory near the Ukrainian border very much looks like a 5V55K from the S-300.

The 5V55K is an old Soviet produced missile (1978/82) for the S-300 air defense system that the Ukraine is using against Russian cruise missiles. Its nominal range in air defense mode is 75 kilometer. If it fails to hit its target the debris is likely to fall at somewhat around that range. Przewodow in Poland (50.47099 lat, 23.93432 lon) where the missile landed, is some 70 kilometer northward of Lviv in Ukraine.

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But World War III mongers don't care about facts:

Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba – 21:35 UTC · Nov 15, 2022
Ukraine government official

Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish theory. Which is not true. No one should buy Russian propaganda or amplify its messages. This lesson should have been long learnt since the downing of #MH17.

"Russia promotes a conspiracy theory …"

Biden: 'Unlikely' missile that hit Poland fired from Russia – AP – 23:44 UTC  Nov 15, 2022 

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AP) — President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland's investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.

It is good that no one of importance fell for this stunt.

UK media though …

Cont. reading: Another Ukrainian Missile Stunt

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How fake news is made.

James Melville @JamesMelville – 19:10 UTC · Nov 14, 2022
Iran 🇮🇷

The Iranian parliament has voted overwhelmingly to execute 15,000 protesters – and all because they dared to protest for the rights and freedoms of women not to wear a headscarf.

Absolutely despicable.

newsweek.com
Nearly 15,000 Iranians have been arrested in connection with the protests, which were spurred by the death of Mahsa Amini in September.

The above was retweeted more than 3,300 times. It is fake news. But you only learn that when you go back to the sources.

The Newsweek report linked in the tweet, though full of lies, does not say that the Iranian parliament "voted overwhelmingly to execute 15,000 protesters".

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But it comes near to that:

Cont. reading: On Iran – Fakenews From Newsweek

Earlier today the Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on U.S.-Russian negotiations in Turkey (machine translation):

As it became known to "Kommersant", today, November 14, negotiations between the Russian and American delegations are taking place in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin flew to Ankara from the Russian side.

This meeting has not been publicly announced before. The source has so far declined to provide details of the talks.

Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that he could neither confirm nor deny the information about the talks in Ankara.

The last time the Russian and American delegations met in Geneva was on January 10 for talks on security guarantees. The lack of practical results of the January negotiation process is often seen as a diplomatic prerequisite for the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine.

The U.S. counterpart of Sergei Naryshkin is CIA director Bill Burns.

The negotiations have long been requested by Russia:

In the last month, the volley of calls for negotiation from Putin has intensified. On September 30, Putin called on Kiev “to return back to the negotiating table.” On October 11, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said  Russia "was willing to engage with the United States or with Turkey on ways to end the war." Two days later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is “open to negotiations to achieve our objectives." On October 26, Putin sent a message to Zelensky through President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embalo of Guinea Bissau, saying that “He wishes and thinks that a direct dialogue should happen between your two countries.” On October 30, Lavrov said that Russia is “ready to listen to our Western colleagues if they make another request to organize a conversation" as long as Russia’s security needs were considered. And on November 1, Putin said that “necessary conditions” could arise that would be a catalyst to talks.

On the U.S. side only one voice had recently publicly urged to start negotiations:

Cont. reading: U.S.-Russian Intelligence Chiefs Discuss Ukraine

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

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Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Nov 7   – Ukraine – U.S. Deceives Allies To Keep Them In Line
• Nov 10 – The Pullout From Kherson
• Nov 11 – Si tacuisses, …
  Related:
  – Getting Closer – Wolfgang Streeck / NLR
  – Russia’s Kherson withdrawal is tactical – Indian Punchline
  – Boiling the Frog and US Mission Creep in Ukraine – Mark Sleboda
  – Surovikin’s Difficult Choice – Russia Abandons Kherson – Big Serge
  – De-Conflicting With the West: Will the Valdai Blueprint Work? – Alastair Crooke / SCF
  – US will build small modular nuclear reactor in Ukraine – Military Monitoring
  – Ukraine hopes to raise enough money to build 100 of these unmanned surface vessels to counter Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. – The Drive

• Nov 8 – 'Putin's Chef' Ridicules U.S. News Outlets – Adds 'Election Interference' Comedy Sketch
  Related:
  – How sarcastic remarks became basis for resurrecting ‘Russiagate’ – Aletho News
  – Rewiring Eurasia: Mr. Patrushev Goes to Tehran – Pepe Escobar / UNZ
  – US threatens traditional Russian values – Putin – RT

• Nov 9 – Midterms Roundup
  Related:
  – U.S. intelligence report says key gulf ally meddled in American politics – Washington Post
  – ‘They completely f–ked up’: How the GOP lost its grip on the Senate majority – Politico
  – Why Democrats Don't Win The Way They Should – Black Agenda Report

• Nov 12 – Prosecution Futures – The Downfall Of FTX And Everything Crypto
  Related:
  – FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried says the crypto exchange gave cash to all of its Ukrainian users (Feb 2022) – Market Insider
  – Ukraine Partners With FTX, Everstake to Launch New Crypto Donation Website (Mar 2022) – CoinDesk
  – FTX Appears to Be a Political Ponzi Scheme Running Dollars to Politicians and Through Ukraine – Gateway Pundit
  – FTX Spent Hundreds of Millions of Dollars on Sports Marketing on Road to Bankruptcy – Decrypt
  – Crypto Confidence Soars After CEO Defrauds Customers Just Like Real Bank – The Onion

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-197

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

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I have been in awe this week about the stupidity of the people who had invested in the crypto-'exchange' FTX. I am likewise in awe that anyone would have 'parked' their 'money' in an account of that unregulated entity. How stupid can one be?

Crypto 'currencies' have no real purpose. They ain't money. Their value solely depends on the trust people have in them. When the trust vanishes their values go to zero. That is what happened to FTX and the FTT 'currency' the company had issued:

The 30-year-old had set up Bahamas-based FTX in 2019 and led it to become one of the largest exchanges, accumulating a near $17 billion fortune.

News of the liquidity crunch at FTX – valued in January at $32 billion with investors including SoftBank and BlackRock – sent reverberations through the crypto world.

The price of major coins plummeted, with bitcoin slumping to its lowest in almost two years, heaping further pain on a sector whose value has fallen about two-thirds this year as central banks tightened credit.

When Softbank's Vision Fund invests into something it is a sure sign that its value will soon sink.

There was a lot of criminality involved here. FTX lent its customers' 'money' to Bankman-Fried’s trading firm, Alameda Research, which had invested it in a number of other loss making crypto schemes. The likewise shady crypto 'exchange' Binance had owned a big share of FTX's 'currency'. Last Sunday it announced that had sold all of it. That was the squeeze that toppled its main competitor. The whole scheme came down. The trust was gone. People pulled their 'money' from the FTX 'exchange' accounts. The company no longer had access to enough money to pay out what it owned. Yesterday it went into bankruptcy.

Some of the money that FTX allegedly gave to Alameda Research had vanished on its way:

Cont. reading: Prosecution Futures – The Downfall Of FTX And Everything Crypto

Russian retreat from Kherson city sets stage for more hard combat
Washington Post – Nov 10, 2022

U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the western bank of the river and that it would take time for them to withdraw. But he, too, saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said.

“This won’t take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.”

The Ministry of Defense reported on the completion of the withdrawal of troops from Kherson
Kommersant (machine translation) – Nov 11, 2022

The Ministry of Defense reported that at 5:00 Moscow time, the transfer of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper was completed. As the agency clarifies, not a single piece of military equipment and weapons was left on the right bank.

The department reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried at night to disrupt the transportation of civilians and the transfer of troops to the left bank of the Dnieper. River crossings were hit five times by HIMARS rockets.

“All Russian military personnel crossed over, no losses of personnel, weapons, equipment and materiel of the Russian group were allowed,” the Ministry of Defense said.

The Russian command decided to remove its troops in the Kherson region from the right bank of the Dnieper.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not look happy when he gave the order. He knows that another such setback will cost him his job.

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This move looks bad.

That alone will have consequences. The Ukrainians, the Biden administration and the European supporter of Ukraine will be emboldened by this. The support in Russia for the war will shrink. Some people in Russia will start to call for President Putin's head. There is no danger though that they will get it.

This move is operationally sound.

From the military point of view there is little chance to withstand a serious attack in the region as the resupply across the Dnieper river is very difficult and can not be guaranteed. Moreover the possible breach of the Dnieper river dams would make any resupply impossible for at least a week or even longer. That would be enough time for the Ukrainians to slaughter whatever number of Russian troops were left behind.

Strategically the move is bad.

It closes for now the possibility of moving into Nikolaev (Mykolaiv) and further towards Odessa. This could have and should have been done earlier.  But the Russian commanded did not commit sufficient forces for that fight. There were also sound reason for not doing that. Now it is too late to criticize those decisions.

It is quite possible that, behind the scene, a deal has been made over this. If one was made we are unlikely to learn of it anytime soon.

The priorities now should be to get the soldiers and equipment out of the area. It will require intense air defense coverage to prevent the close down of ferry points by Ukrainian artillery. There is no reason to make it easy for the Ukraine to regain the area. Until the evacuation is done any significant Ukrainian move into the area should be responded to with effective artillery fire.

Soon the Ukrainian army will start to move troops prepared for an attack in Kherson to other front lines. Russia must likewise move its troops to reinforce its positions elsewhere.

Morale requires that the next Russian move has to be big push with strategic significance. The concept of deep battle and deep operations should be reapplied. Historically it has nearly always worked to Russia's advantage.

But the big push does not need to be solely militarily. A further significant damage of Ukraine's economy via its electricity network is an additional option. To severely interdict its supply lines from the west is another one.

We need to look at the big picture.

The world is moving away from a unilateral 'western' led model towards a new multilateral future. By waging war in Ukraine Russia initiated and accelerated this historic change. In sight of that the pullback from Kherson is just a minor tactical loss. It can and likely will be rectified by moves happening elsewhere.

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Q of the day: Is the Russian 'retreat' from the Kherson region maskirovka or real?

News & views not related to the Ukraine conflict …

The midterm election did not come with the red wave some had expected. The reasons for that are manifold.

That the Trump brand has lost some of its shine is one. Trump has always been bad at picking people. In the case of this election he supported some particular bad candidates. They obviously did not perform as he had hoped for.

Biden is not liked much. But he is – in general – also not disliked much. He has managed to bribe the voters first through the large spending programs he had moved through Congress and then through the huge releases from the strategic petroleum reserve. The prices fell at the pump and that typically counts for a lot.

Abortion seems to have played a role and Democrats said they would do something about that. But the Supreme Court judgment pushed the issue back to the states. I doubt that the Democrats will do anything about that. They have no incentive and no means to change that ruling.

So the Democrats may keep the Senate though barely. The Republicans will likely take the House but also with only a thin majority. That means that U.S. policies, internally but especially on foreign issues, will not change one bit.

As the saying goes: 'If elections would change anything they would not be allowed.'

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

A number of news outlets are spreading this nonsense:

Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin admits interfering in US elections — and promises to do it again – Nov 7, 2022 – NYPost

Russian oligarch and Kremlin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin said Monday that he had interfered in US elections in the past — and intends to keep it up.

Prigozhin, the money-man behind Moscow’s brutal Wagner Group paramilitaries, made the admission in a statement released by his business, the Concord catering firm.

“We have interfered [in US elections], we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,” read the statement posted to Russian social media platform VKontakte.

“During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once,” the statement added, without further explanation.

The post, made one day before mid-term elections in the US, was in response to questions put to Prigozhin from Russian news outlets.

Prigozhin — colloquially known as “Putin’s Chef” due to his catering firm’s Kremlin contracts — is also thought to be the financier behind Russian internet troll farms.

The White House even remarked on it:

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday that the oligarch’s comments “do not tell us anything new or surprising.

“It’s well known and well documented in the public domain that entities associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin have sought to influence elections around the world, including in the United States,” she said.

“Yevgeny is a known bad actor who has been sanctioned by the United States, the United Kingdom and also the European Union,” she added.

“We also know that part of Russia’s efforts include promoting narratives aimed at undermining democracy and sowing division and discord — it’s not surprising that Russia would be highlighting their attempted efforts and fabricating a story about their successes on the eve of an election,” Jean-Pierre said.

This is of course great nonsense. Prigozhin remarks did not admit anything but were pure sarcasm.

Cont. reading: ‘Putin’s Chef’ Ridicules U.S. News Outlets – Adds ‘Election Interference’ Comedy Sketch

The Biden administration launched a make-believe campaign that is supposed to calm those European 'allies' who press for peace talks over  Ukraine.

But, as the Washington Post provides, the alleged Biden push towards negotiations is a sham:

The Biden administration is privately encouraging Ukraine’s leaders to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia and drop their public refusal to engage in peace talks unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The request by American officials is not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, these people said. Rather, they called it a calculated attempt to ensure the government in Kyiv maintains the support of other nations facing constituencies wary of fueling a war for many years to come.
…
While U.S. officials share their Ukrainian counterparts’ assessment that Putin, for now, isn’t serious about negotiations, they acknowledge that President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ban on talks with him has generated concern in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, where the war’s disruptive effects on the availability and cost of food and fuel are felt most sharply.

If Zelensky will now start to offer talks we know that it will not be serious but just for show.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has just visited Kiev. He is likely the one who has put up this scheme. It would be consistent with another recent story planted in the Wall Street Journal about talks between Sullivan and some Russians:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – U.S. Deceives Allies To Keep Them In Line

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Nov 1 – Down Time
  Related:
  – Concerning recent Typepad issues – Everything Typepad

• Nov 1 – Some Ukraine Items …
• Nov 4 – War In Ukraine – U.S. Creeping Towards Ever Deeper Involvement
  Related:
  – Kyiv Planning for Total Evacuation if It Loses Electricity – NY Times
  – Deconstructing Western Delusions on Ukraine and Russia – Larry Johnson
  – U.S. privately asks Ukraine to show it’s open to negotiate with Russia – Washington Post
  – The proxy war between the U.S. and Russia is devastating Ukraine, ironically in the name of saving Ukraine – Common Dreams

• Nov 2 – Biden Administration Again Plants False Nuclear Scare Stories
• Nov 3 – Another Day, Another False Scare Story
  Related:
  – Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says – USnews / Reuters
  – SCOTT RITTER: A ‘Dangerous, Bloody & Dirty Game’ – Consortium News
  – A Biden-Putin meeting in Bali cannot be ruled out – Indian Punchline

• Nov 5 – The Twitter Massacre

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-191