Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 04, 2022

Ukraine - What Explains The Recent Russian Retreats?

Over the last months Ukraine has launched a counteroffensive against Russian positions in the Kharkov region. The attack against thin Russian forces was quite successful but has cost the Ukrainian army several thousand men and irreplaceable hardware. That does not seem to matter for Kiev.

Several reasons for the success were given. The Russian forces in the area were even smaller than people had thought and the Ukraine was willing to push every reserve it had through the Russian defense lines. The Russian artillery was equally thin and could not use enough area weapons like multiple rocket launcher systems to stop the storming Ukrainian forces.

In consequence the Ukraine took a quite large share of land. Most st of these was thinly inhabited rural areas. Even the city of Lyman which the Russian gave up on had less than 30,000 pre-war inhabitants.

Kharkov region October 4

Kharkov region September 1


But another Ukrainian counteroffensive lets me doubt the explanations given for the area losses near Kharkov.

In the Kherson-Nikopol region the Ukrainians made several attempts to push the Russian forces from the land north of the Dnieper river. All had failed with large losses for the Ukrainian side. But over the last week the Ukrainians tried a new attack along the river and breached through the Russian frontline.

The Russian troops retreated in good order and the Ukrainians pushed further.

Kherson-Nikopol region October 4

Kherson-Nikopol region September 1


Neither the explanation of too few men, nor the explanation of too few MLRS systems or ammunition which may explain the Kharkov success hold up for the Kherson region.

During the summer Russian troops were pulled from the Kharkov region and send to the south to defend the Kherson regions. There are lots of Russian units in the area including many artillery systems. And while the Ukrainians have damaged some bridges that cross the Dnieper the Russian forces have enough ferry equipment to keep up the supplies. Most of the previous Ukrainian attacks were defeated rather easily.

I thus find it hard to explain the current situation.

My current 'feel' is that the Russian forces have orders from high above to conserve forces and to let go of land and retreat when the pressure becomes big enough and severe Russian casualty numbers are likely.

Why were such orders given? What are the plans behind them?

I don't really know.But I am sure will find out when Russia opens the new phase of the war.

The weather has become quite bad in Ukraine with rain making the passing over fields with tanks etc nearly impossible. That is why the attack in the south was pushed along a road. In two month the ground in Ukraine will likely be frozen.

The Russian military leadership seems to believe that the Ukrainian operations will cease soon and that the mobilized reinforcements that are starting to come online will be able to decisively change the picture as soon as the winter comes.

Another potential reason behind the order to conserve forces and to not hold onto territory at any price may be political. The Russian public was starting to get a bit tired of the war but after the losses in the Kharkov region the TV pundits pushed for winning the war. That allowed Russia's president to launch the mobilization of reservists. The further losses since may be designed to allow for more political measures.

The law that will allow for the four regions to return to Russia after a hundred years of being part of Ukraine today passed the upper house of Russia's parliament:

According to the documents, the DPR and the LPR will retain their status as republics after joining Russia and Russian will be their official language. The Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will also join Russia as constituent entities and will continue to be called "regions." The borders of the republics and regions will be the same as those that "existed on the day of their creation and accession into Russia." International accords specify that their borders with other countries will be regarded as Russia’s state borders. At the same time, under the constitutional laws, the DPR and the LPR are joining Russia under the 2014 borders enshrined in their constitutions.

President Putin will now have to sign the new law to enact it. The heads of the DPR and LPR have already signed laws ratifying treaties on joining Russia.

With the laws enacted the Special Military Operation will become a war to prevent attacks on Russian grounds and to retake the parts of Russia that are currently under Ukrainian occupation.

I expect that the gloves which Russia was still wearing during recent operations will come off.

Posted by b on October 4, 2022 at 16:39 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

@ Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 18:34 utc | 72
From a Ukrainian POV, [Russia] should have focused on Kherson, not Kharkov or Liman, territory that Russia can easily take back. But if Russia loses the Dnjepr bridgehead, its over for Russian long term plans of getting the entire South-East Ukraine [including Odessa].

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 19:25 utc | 101

@ Tom UK.

Are you saying the Ukrainians are immune to all these factors? After all their losses are much bigger.

Particularly in light of Ukraine itself having a real population 4-5× smaller than Russia and a moribund economy subsisting on welfare.

It's worth remembering a lot of armies have snatched mid-to-late-war victories even inflicting outright disaters to no great effect.

To put Russia's present position into context. The Chechen wars were an absolute unmitigated clusterfuck of epic proportions and unpopular to boot particularly the first phase. They also took place when the Russian state barely fuctioned and the economy was utterly looted & depressed...Russia won.

Speaking of Chechens in that war they often wisely withdrew troops rather than lose them, in ill-advised battles including giving up fucking Grozney.

Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 4 2022 19:26 utc | 102

I am surprised that no one in this thread has mentioned the "Mongol Strategy". Dima of Military Summary spoke of how the Mongols would retreat before an enemy, allowing them to advance, then destroying them from all sides with horseback archery assaults, wiping the enemy out without ever crossing swords. Russia is doing this right now, but instead of arrows, they use artillery shells, missiles, and air assaults. The Ukrainians have suffered enormous losses of men and equipment; perhaps the NATO well is deep that they draw more from, but time will tell if the well really never runs dry.

Posted by: Tedder | Oct 4 2022 19:27 utc | 103

PS To the dis/misinformation trolls, your bosses will never get their filthy mitts on Russia's abundant resources, EVER.

Posted by: WTFUD | Oct 4 2022 18:15 utc | 64

This is what I don't understand.

Russia prior to 2022 was in an apparently very strong position.

Relations with the inevitable future Superpower to end all superpowers (China! Who else?) were the best ever.

US was having one of its periodic wind down of yet another MIC victory, this time in Afghanistan (heli included!).

France was upset and wondering aloud about NATO.

BRI, BRIC, SCO, and the rest of the alt-alphabet soup organizations were being assembled, growing, and a sound foundation for an alt-order.

Neither US nor UK cut a fine figure on the international stage. Not even on their traditional make believe music/film/fiction. They were reduced to regurgitating comic books!

I wrote on the day of the invasion -- yes, entering into a civil war on behalf of two contending parties in a national civil war is still an "invasion" -- that Putin has fucked Russia and that Xi is not amused.

This, in my opinion, happened because Russia, contrary to all its loud claims to virtue, KNEW that the dethroning of USA by organic processes will inevitably mean CHINA is king. And Putin and friends could not accept that.

This "satanic" order was going to go bye bye on its own. Clock was ticking. Everyone knew this. They, West, do all they can to bait China into a hot war. But China knew that would be stupid, and ultimately counter productive. For everyone.

So Russia, in its ill advised venture into the Ukrainian quagmire, was actually thinking of its own strategic interest viz a vis the rest of the "Global South". A mini-me version (like everything else Russia vs West) of kicking the board.

Can anyone here seriously argue that Russia's adventurism has benefited anyone in the "Global South"?

Can anyone here seriously argue that before the SMO, "they" had greater chance of "getting their hands on Russia's vast resources" than they do now?

The reason Russia is failing is precisely because it lacks the virtues it so loudly proclaims.

Posted by: frankwords | Oct 4 2022 19:27 utc | 104

From RT:

The latest step in the process of accepting the four regions as new parts of Russia was approved in an unanimous vote [by the Federation Council]. The Russian constitution will need to be amended for the accession to be finalized.

Apparently the legal formalities don't end with the Federation Council vote which occurred today. The Russian constitution needs amending (See note [1] below). My first thought was, "WTF! Amending the constitution sounds like a 6 month process (or impossible depending on the country you live in)." It's not clear to me that all amendments require the same process but Wikipedia tells me the 2020 amendments required ratification by 2/3rds of the 85 regional legislatures. That still sounds like a 6 month process but in 2020 the ratifications were done in 2 days. Then 3 days after that the Constitutional Court approved the amendments. So we may be looking at next week before the legal process is complete.

[1] Based on quick Googling, the Russian Constitution exhibits a classic software design error that impedes maintainability. The constitution lists all the regions to which it applies. It's therefore necessary to amend the constitution to include the new regions in the list. I kind of hope there's more to it than that, but it strikes me as stupid enough to be true.

Posted by: Mike314159 | Oct 4 2022 19:28 utc | 105

Excuse my French, but yet more fucking retarded appeals likening the Satanic-west with Nazism.

Can someone please pinpoint to me exactly what makes this global Satanism, "Nazism?"

Whereas Nazism was for clear delineation of national borders, the EU, the U.S. and the liberal west is for a merging of all nations.

Whereas Nazism emphasized the physical individual to contribute to the greater Volk, westernism emphasizes femininism, effiminate men, the blurring of genders, the total acceptance of Jewish authority over our lives: pornography, usury, financial monopoly.

Paperclip did not absorb the remnant Nazi-ideology into the west; it absorbed the brain power of Germany and totally conquered Germany as a region through the merciless bombings of its civilian targets and industry.

Posters like bevin say that western powerbrokers were behind Nazism...this is not true. Only certain brave individuals and entities were anti-war during the run-up to WW2. They were quickly isolated and silenced as the public at large was convinced that Nazism was evil and so a war had to be fought. Industrial titans in Germany did not share the NSDAP's ideology, most certainly, and would only sail during fair-winds...meaning once the world alliance against Nazism was winning, it was clear that was no longer the winning hand, so they bailed. Iow, there is no ideological underpinnings to western industry; on the other hand Nazism was a great movement that bucked the internationalist agenda.

And what is Russia doing right now? Hmmmm...maybe something similar?

Quit conflating Nazism with globalism. It is intellectually retarded to do so. If you refuse to understand ww2, we are doomed.


P.s. months ago, I commented on the likelihood of the rumor that during the initial phases of the SMO, the officer manual issued by the MoD identified the enemy as Satanic world-force.

I was rebuked by a poster who said that I was passing on a BS and unsubstantiated rumor and was just some dumb Christian.

Now that Putin has FINALLY identified the belligerents in this conflict correctly, the warriors of light versus the satanists, I am beginning to think that the officer manual did contain that directive.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 19:30 utc | 106

@ Black Cloud #67

Hopefully we don’t get any more redundant lectures as reminders of the limited nature of the SMO. The SMO is dead, long live — what exactly? Something nasty, brutish and short, I’ll wager. Or at least I think that would be wise from an RF point of view.

Posted by: Zed | Oct 4 2022 19:30 utc | 107

I See the the witdrawamon the northern front as a purely diplomatic move.

Currently the Northern front goes exactly along the border between Luhansk and Kharkov which is the new Ukro-russina border. This can not be an accident. It means that from the russian view no russian troops are deployed on Ukraine soil. My prediction is as follows:

-> Russia will set an ultimatum to Ukraine saying "we have no troops on your land, remove your troops from our land"
-> Ukraine will continue fitting and not withdraw
-> Russia will say to the world "see, they are the ones attacking, not us, we are just defending motherland"

Then they can run over Ukraine and still claim that they did not start the aggression. While in February the world was shocked by the SMO, the opinions outside the western echo chamber have changed largely in favor of russia. Russia will make sure that world opinion stays in their favor before invading the rest of Ukraine.

Posted by: deedl | Oct 4 2022 19:30 utc | 108

This is why Russia is now fighting nato.
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff fully coordinates its work with the Pentagon / CIA/MI-6, which allows us to apply advanced military techniques on the battlefield. Coordination of units takes place in an online format, and mobile groups on pickups allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out flank girths of fortified areas of the Russian army and force the enemy to retreat. We have completely switched to the methods of warfare of NATO countries, using the technology of network-centric combat control systems and horizontal coordination. Our infantry does not need to ask the headquarters for gunners to strike at enemy positions, they are marked online using satellites/drones and visual reconnaissance with clear coordinates, which allows you to strike at the enemy with lightning speed.

The heavy weapons are now virtually all nato, the mercenaries are nato and the satellites are nato. the Ukraine troops are now trained by nato in nato countries.

After the six month contracts expired and many left, Russia pulled remaining troops from the north to reinforce the south but how many are actually left. A Chechen group went to Kherson recently to reinforce that front but as far as I know, their units have little in the way of heavy weapons. I think around the time of the start of the southern offensive there was a train load of artillery videoed at Crimea but that appears to have been the start of the current buildup rather than reinforcements for Kherson.

I had read that the final signing of the documents to incorporate the regions in to the Russian Federation is on the 5th. Some people will choose to stay in there homes even when advised to leave so losing that many villages is not good straight after the referendums.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 19:39 utc | 109

@102 Urban Fox

No, I’m saying Russia is not immune to these factors any more or less than Ukraine. It is a nonsense to suggest that Ukraine is losing troops and equipment at an unsustainable rate, or at some unrealistic ratio compared to Russia forces. If this were true this conflict would have ended months ago.

I mean we have been told that the defending Russian forces were quite sparse and that it was burnt villages and empty country. If defending troops were sparse then inflicting huge casualties seems unlikely. If they were just burnt villages and empty country, then it isn’t saying anything positive about Russian treatment of the local population and their homes.

The narrative is contradictory and largely unbelievable.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 4 2022 19:43 utc | 110

ZH has a posting up (can't link) with the title

Watch: Bloomberg Hosts Scramble As Top UN Adviser Shreds Ukraine Narrative In Live Interview

It is Jeffrey Sachs that is caught live saying the US/etc blew up the pipelines and more and the article includes a bit about the Musk poll about peace negotiation in Ukraine.

Musk tweeted in response to someone

We gave Starlinks to Ukraine & lost $80M+ in doing so, while putting SpaceX & myself at serious risk of Russian cyberattack.

What have you done besides tweet?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 4 2022 19:44 utc | 111

Too few really seem to understand what this conflict is all about.

Rather, they either become consumed by tactical battlefield analyses, or start to fixate on Russia's existention position.

But who here is considering the USA's rationale? As the lion, shark or spider must kill to eat, so too must an empire based on debt money consume all available resources.

And who has the globe's last great stores? What happens to the $USD if we can't access/control them to ensure dollar power lives?

That's why Uke is really the OK corral - were all in. But how do we ensure success? The same way we always have - by establishing the "victims" moral authority to engage in total war.

In this case, total war can be rationalized that a desperate Russia used the first battlefield nuke. Why would they do that? Because they were losing so badly as to be on verge of system wide collapse.

How do we "know" Russia is losing across a collapsing front? Because the massed social media (troll army flooding all platforms) repeats the claim as vurtual shock troops while the broader audience is bombarded by MSM.

Take away? Patreaus, et al are telling anybody paying attention that we will escalate and retaliate with nukes as justification for Russias "first strike".

Wait for it; the nord false flag was just a dry run.

Posted by: B9k9 | Oct 4 2022 19:45 utc | 112

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 19:39 utc | 109

That is what I mean by NATO Wundersystems talk that is suppose to somehow overcome the huge discrepancy in EVERYTHING Russia and Ukraine are able to field. Its the newest item, next week it will be the next great NATO system or weapon. Again, numbers matter and there is simply no way Ukraine can match anything what Russia is able to field.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 19:48 utc | 113

“The reason Russia is failing is precisely because it lacks the virtues it so loudly proclaims.”


Well said. Putin is a petty nationalist. He can say Russia is fighting Western hegemony but he offers no actual liberation to the global south.

In fact he’s going to make it worse for the global south by leading Russia to ruin.

Posted by: linbiao | Oct 4 2022 19:49 utc | 114

Posted by: elkern | Oct 4 2022 17:58 utc | 50

...Simply identifying a tracking a bunch of trucks driving from (old) Russia to Kherson and pinpointing common end-points (where they turn around & go back for more supplies) would identify Russian supply depots - and that's what HIMARS have supposedly been attacking. Blowing up enough supply dumps would reduce the number of shells Russian artillery could lob at Ukrainian ground forces...

This is an interesting analysis and seems pretty obvious once you spell it out.

As for your closing remarks, this got me thinking about the likelihood of an attack on western satellites. Is there room for deterrence here? Are there warning signals that could encourage the West to back down? Unlike nuclear warfare where the red line is objective, space-based assets, by definition, operate in the dark. You cannot point to their use and say, hey now, you've gone too far here, now you must pay the price!

In my opinion, any attack on satellites today, no matter how exhaustive and strategically significant their use, would be perceived no differently than before this war started. What I mean is that the western public would see it as an unprecedented, out-of-the blue, act of aggression and that perception could be managed similarly to how it would have played out 6 months, a year, or five years ago.

Posted by: robin | Oct 4 2022 19:49 utc | 115

Well the way I see it, Russia is not waging a successful military campaign at present. The main reason appears to be an inexplicable shortage of numbers. It maybe that as most pro-western commentators suggest that this is due to structural failures in Russian capabilities and political will. Or it may be Russian miscalculation so far. But it is not 5d chess. I maintain my view that Russia (on the metrics) should not lose this war. But stranger things have often occurred in history.

Posted by: marcjf | Oct 4 2022 19:50 utc | 116

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2022 18:20 utc | 63

Legitimate question: why does Zelensky care about "public opinion" in the west since anyone's opinion doesn't really matter what the so-called government does?

I think your premise about people's opinion not mattering is fundamentally wrong, hence the apparent contradiction.

Posted by: robin | Oct 4 2022 19:51 utc | 117


It’s a global war. The battles in The Ukraine are only one theater. This war will take many many years before it is over.

Posted by: Exile | Oct 4 2022 19:53 utc | 118

@ Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 19:23 utc | 100
Keep in mind that Ukraine needs mechanized troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers, as spearheads to execute offensives.
Not necessarily, they don't.

. . .from Telegram

Zhenya Poddubny says correctly that the Ukrainians Liman and other villages do not take head-on. There are forests and swamps around. They operate in maneuverable groups, up to a platoon, three jeeps, one “Kozak” (something in between our “Typhoon” and “Tiger”). That’s it. And there are many such groups going forward. There is no big collective goal, they do not accumulate in one place. Their comms are reliable (stable closed communication between groups and headquarters, use of large and small UAVs). They inspire fear with their appearance (who knows, maybe it’s a regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine coming towards you).
These groups envelop the villages, block them. The same way the militants in August 1996 took Grozny. They entered the city by “goat paths”, blocked checkpoints in small groups, and that’s it, then the main forces entered, the city of Grozny was taken by militants. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 19:59 utc | 119

"...Can anyone here seriously argue that Russia's adventurism has benefited anyone in the "Global South"?.." frankwords@104

If by 'adventurism' you mean refusing to submit to the Empire and defying its ability to use the international financial system to impose discipline. Then I believe this a benefit to all and the South in particular. Further I believe that we have already seen signs, in Africa, west Asia and Latin America of new attitudes to the IMF, World Bank etc.
What this has put on the table is the usurer's greatest enemy-the threat of repudiation, which signifies the debtor's belief that alternatives do or will exist.
The imperialists are turning resentful dependents- often military regimes imposed by the Empire- into enemies eager to forge alternative alliances.


It is unclear whether you are more angered by the equation of Nazism with satanism (which is to libel the Devil)or the charge that the NSDAP's rise to power was facilitated by the German bourgeoisie, who were, in a sense dependents on Wall Street. US capital was deeply involved in the German economy. Under Hitler that involvement grew.

When it comes to Nazism, one has to take into account your emotional commitment- repeatedly show on this blog's comments- to restoring the reputation of Hitler et al. But you ought to rise above it, reading a few standard works of history would not only be a good idea. It would make your assertions regarding the stupidity of those who disagree with your fascist analysis of the origins of the World War a little less laughable.

Personally I care little but there must be those who are offended by your claim to speak for or from Christianity.

Posted by: bevin | Oct 4 2022 20:00 utc | 120

It's also very interesting that the dark muttering of "the gloves are gonna come off now" is never accompanied by a specific sense of what will change. OK, freshly mobilized reservists who are now elite at standing in formations and maybe got range days in if they were lucky will get thrown into the trenches as gap fillers. Given that the much-vaunted 3rd Army Corps of motivated volunteers haven't made their presence felt, that can't be all, so... what else? What do you actually mean? What are the capabilities and/or weapon systems that the Russians are able to use but have thus far chosen to withhold?

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 4 2022 18:30 utc | 68

How about the following:

1. Zelensky, together with all the political and military leadership, are evaporated with missile strikes

2. The same fate befalls the NATO command and control centers in Kiev, Odessa, and who knows where.

3. Enough substations are blown up to completely cripple the electric grid, paralyzing the railway system too.

Is that not going to have an impact?

It will take about a hundred missiles to do it.

They have fired more than 5,000 so far. Clearly there both the resources and the capability to deliver theme have been and are available.

But it is still not being done for some mysterious reason.

Worse, they are still bombing repair plants even today, while the front is collapsing.

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 4 2022 20:01 utc | 121

Longtime lurker, first time poster ... because I find it's best to STFU and wait until details become clearer before sharing my thoughts. (A lesson many here need to learn, in my opinion.) On a related note, it's easy to see who the trolls are, but I'm taking names nonetheless. Those who have the courage to show themselves when this situation sorts itself out, will certainly be reminded of their (willful?) ignorance, but will have actually earned my respect. I'm willing to bet their ranks will be few to none.

Posted by: LastLaugh | Oct 4 2022 20:01 utc | 122

Why strain troops and resources already in place when heavy reinforcements are soon to arrive? Make winning easy, not hard. I think that is Russia’s plan.

Posted by: Rob | Oct 4 2022 20:03 utc | 123

RE: More NATO weapons coming into the theater, you might tap the brakes on that a bit.

In the U.S. weapons industry, the normal production level for artillery rounds for the 155 millimeter howitzer — a long-range heavy artillery weapon currently used on the battlefields of Ukraine — is about 30,000 rounds per year in peacetime.

The Ukrainian soldiers fighting invading Russian forces go through that amount in roughly two weeks.

That’s according to Dave Des Roches, an associate professor and senior military fellow at the U.S. National Defense University. And he’s worried.

“I’m greatly concerned. Unless we have new production, which takes months to ramp up, we’re not going to have the ability to supply the Ukrainians,” Des Roches told CNBC.

Europe is running low, too. “The military stocks of most [European NATO] member states have been, I wouldn’t say exhausted, but depleted in a high proportion, because we have been providing a lot of capacity to the Ukrainians,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said earlier this month.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg held a special meeting of the alliance’s arms directors on Tuesday to discuss ways to refill member nations’ weapons stockpiles.

Military analysts point to a root issue: Western nations have been producing arms at much smaller volumes during peacetime, with governments opting to slim down very expensive manufacturing and only producing weapons as needed. Some of the weapons that are running low are no longer being produced, and highly skilled labor and experience are required for their production — things that have been in short supply across the U.S. manufacturing sector for years. ARTICLE CONTINUES...

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 4 2022 20:05 utc | 124

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 19:39 utc | 109

So, RF can feel on the knees and thank NATO to show, how war should be conducted!
Because, Russian army has all these technologies, but don't know how to use in real. live circumstances! Were not inwolved for long time...
Jamming is not a problem, problem is to use it in reality.
Not to forget, Norwegian fregate was stranded in own port, when jamming was used just for show....

So, what is going on on the front, is riddle also for me.
I am going out of one conclusion.
All this braktroughs are prepared by western top generals,supported by computer analysis. They have all the data, which RF does not have.
They planned breakthrough, which succeded, but have no plan, how many lives that will cost and how long they can hold positions....
And they don't care! That are ukro lives!
As we stated before, Ukraine is running out of lives...
Should I mention Sun Tzu?
Don't fight battles when your oponent is strong. Fight at the time and place wich you like..

Posted by: preseren3 | Oct 4 2022 20:05 utc | 125

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 19:59 utc | 119

Can you explain to me how three jeeps and one Kozak vehicle can overcome a heavily guarded Russian rear with Russian force parity or even superiority? The main issue is Ukrainian nummerical superiority right now that enables small light groups to operate in the Russian rear and flanks.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 20:05 utc | 126

@ elkern | Oct 4 2022 17:58 utc | 50
...Simply identifying a tracking a bunch of trucks driving from (old) Russia to Kherson
@ robin | Oct 4 2022 19:49 utc | 115
This is an interesting analysis and seems pretty obvious once you spell it out.

It quickly becomes less obvious when one realizes that it's impossible to drive from Russia to Kherson. . .There's a bridgeless river in the way. . .So the trucks line up waiting fror a pontoon boat to carry them, which is quite easy to target.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 20:08 utc | 127

@ Rob | Oct 4 2022 20:03 utc | 123
Why strain troops and resources already in place when heavy reinforcements are soon to arrive?
There can be no reinforcements of Kherson; it is isolated from any ground approach.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 20:11 utc | 128

The plot thickens...
The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage

Posted by: Passerby | Oct 4 2022 20:14 utc | 129

@ Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 19:59 utc | 119
Ukrainian numerical superiority right now that enables small light groups to operate in the Russian rear and flanks.
Exactly, using drones and super-fast commo to call in fires.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 20:14 utc | 130

@120 bevin

I can defend my Christianity with all those thinkers, poets, and Saints who came before me and look to the actions of Russia in the near future to witness the Christian response to Satanism.

You only hide your Jewishness and avoid the question when it comes your way.

There are other posters here no less contemptible than you but at least have the courage to admit they are one.


Re: industry supporting ideology in the west.

They will only do so to the extent that it does not harm them long term. Where Trump, like Hitler, rode a wave of nationalism and was initially supported greatly by industry, the movers and shakers inevitably step in to say you that, "you have gone too far."

What does "going rogue" mean? It means to go too far ahead at too quick a pace.

Hitler went rogue. So did Trump.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 20:18 utc | 131

You only hide your Jewishness and avoid the question when it comes your way.

There are other posters here no less contemptible than you but at least have the courage to admit they are one.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 20:18 utc | 131

What's the plan, little yellow armbands and Stars of David painted on shopfronts? The Nazis and Zionists were close collaborators. Zelensky himself is a Jew who says he wants post-war Ukraine to resemble the Israeli Zionist apartheid state. So what's your point there?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 4 2022 20:21 utc | 132

Nato's Ukraine forces have now gone full net centric as per the quote I posted earlier.
The pentagon is a partner in Musk's starlink. Thousands of tiny satellites and these are used for the netcentric warfare. Sat imaging, drone imaging, signals, all battlefield data fed in. Interactive screen at headquarters that shows targets and concentrations. Ran onto a ukie video on twitter or telegram earlier showing the screen. All vehicles and infantry units must have some form of transponder because their positions can also be seen on the screen in real time.

Musk said he dedicated a large number of these satellites to Ukraine at a cost of $80 million and risking cyber attack.
Shoigu spoke specificity about the satellites in the recent interview. Musk's satellites part owned by the pentagon, once the legal formalities are completed will be part of the equipment used to attack Russia. I don't know if Russia has tech for taking down large numbers of small comm satellites, but if it does I guess it will be open season on Musk's starlink. Cyber attack, Musk's main worry is pobaly a good option.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 20:21 utc | 133

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 19:59 utc | 119

That is evidently one of Ukraines trump cards at the moment. They (CIC Zaluzhny) said foreign mercenaries ride in pickups around/behind/flanking strong points, enabling Ukraine army to stay on the front door. Even small flanking groups may force a general withdrawal, which happened exactly at Lyman.

This is a lot where numerical disadvantage plays a role. Even regular conscripts in smaller groups, can hold the line against these small pickup mercs. Russia imo did correctly NE of Kherson, withdraw to shorten the line, where these small merc groups with pickups aren't that effective.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2022 20:22 utc | 134

The funny part: Back in February/March, if Russia had just secured the 2014 gains they would have gotten them. Now , after they threatened us repeatedly with nuclerar war and holy anti gay satanism crusades, not so much. You have to understand that this whole narrative about the feminine west without fangs or claws was a bullshit mem that your politicians told you. My gay friends can kill very well, thank you.

Russia has blundered into its own propaganda.

Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 4 2022 20:23 utc | 135

Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 4 2022 20:23 utc | 135

You are 180 degrees from the truth and history. It has been the US threatening nukes in nearly every conflict in which "we" have been involved dating back to WWII - ya know, when "we" actually used them. Furthermore, we used depleted uranium in Europe (Yugoslavia). Neither Putin nor Russia have any history of proactively threatening nuclear warfare. You're a sucker for your own propaganda.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 4 2022 20:25 utc | 136

"What more do you need to know?" - Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 4 2022 17:53 utc | 42

What evidence, if any, that you have to support your assertions.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 4 2022 20:26 utc | 137

Don Bacon @ Oct 4 2022 20:08 utc | 127

I was thinking Kherson oblast rather than city. But this brings the question, how near to the front must depots be placed?

Posted by: robin | Oct 4 2022 20:28 utc | 138

More copium & hopium from b.

Then the reality...

Russia's frontline has collapsed in the south of Ukraine with dozens of towns liberated in a matter of hours, according to sources on both sides of the conflict.Kyiv said its troops are 'confidently advancing to the sea' as videos showed the city of Davydiv Brid under their control along with a clutch of smaller settlements in the surrounding countryside. Meanwhile pro-Russian military bloggers said their forces had retreated around 10 miles down the Dnipro River as the entire northern end of their territory west of the river fell into Ukrainian hands.

Yeah, what to do when your side started a war by invading a much smaller neighbor and is now getting its ass kicked on the battlefield??

Posted by: Dan Bartlett | Oct 4 2022 20:29 utc | 139

Again, there are not enough reserves to hold settlements surrounding the city.

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 The AFU plan for the offensive on Svatovo - acc to the Ukr Resident channel


"Zaluzhny is preparing a new offensive, the main goal of which is to surround Svatovo and force Russian troops to retreat. Now reserves are accumulating in Kupyansk and an attack is being prepared on the Svatovo—Kremennaya line from Kupyansk & Liman.
The AFU will continue to use the tactics of small mobile groups, which will have to go to the rear, paving the way for heavy equipment, removing enemy artillery and aircraft from the battle. Taking advantage of the absence of minefields and serious fortification lines, we quickly seized the enemy in a pincer grip. The Rus command cannot saturate the front, & there aren't enough reserves for the defense of settlements, which opens the flanks and allows the APU to easily displace the enemy,"

Now there are artillery battles going on here, the enemy is concentrating forces and sending small groups to probe settlements along the Kremennaya - Svatovo highway.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2022 20:32 utc | 140

@ Fnord73 | Oct 4 2022 20:23 utc | 135 who wrote the words

holy anti gay satanism crusades

I think you and NemesisCalling should get together on the latest MoA Open Thread and entertain us more with your references to mythical stuff in conflict with your "faith".

Why don't you text Pope Frank in the middle of one of his masses and ask him about your holy anti gay satanism crusades

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 4 2022 20:32 utc | 141

@132 tom

What's the plan, Tom? Watch our children be exposed to pornography at younger and younger ages? To be force-vaccinated? To live in a country without borders? To watch the wealth of your country disappear upwards? To watch Christianity being the only religion censored for hate-speech laws? To continue being addicted to goy-slop and other mechanized-food creations? To watch your unemployed children never owning a house in the future? To have your guns taken? To see your daughter grown and in the sex industry or trafficked?

What's the plan?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 20:36 utc | 142

Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 19:48 utc | 113

The first offensive at Kherson coming from the west over the river was a concentration of force and it failed. Concentrations get wiped out by artillery. The northern and now the second southern offensive have used different tactic. Spread out and fast moving, everything working in close coordination. A different form of warfare to what the Ukies had used until these two offensives. With the Russian held territory so lightly manned at the moment it has worked allowing Ukraine to take back large pieces of ground quickly.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 20:36 utc | 143

The procedure for joining the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to Russia is coming to an end. The Federation Council approved the relevant constitutional laws and ratified treaties on the admission of regions into the country today. The next stage is the signature of Vladimir Putin and the introduction of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation on the basis of a decree of the head of state.

The signing is most probably tomorrow, 5th October 2022. Then, all new four subjects would become part of the Russian Federation. They will be the 86th, 87th, 88th and 89th parts of the Russian Federation. SMO was in Ukraine, but not within the Russian Federation. So, something different would happen after the signing ceremony. It could be a war of liberation, or an outright war with Ukraine. If it became a declared war, there can be either winner or a loser, nothing in between. There's no draw in a declared war.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 4 2022 20:37 utc | 144

@141 psycho

Are you willfully ignoring the words of Putin himself in his most important speech ever given that this is a war against Satanism?

Reading your posts over the years, I am convinced that cognitive dissonance is the greatest threat to people in the west. It knows no bounds.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 20:38 utc | 145


You need to get those brain worms cleared out and rediscover dialectical materialism.

Posted by: linbiao | Oct 4 2022 20:40 utc | 146

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 4 2022 20:14 utc | 130

Ok, then you think the coming Russian force parity or even superiority makes no difference, that the Russians will be sitting ducks and wait for an Ukrainian attack prepared by their light and small forces. In reality, lightly armored and small groups wont help a retreating force that cant withstand Russian nummerical parity/superiority and weapon superiority. If you really think that, we will shortly see, if your hypothesis is correct. I see Russian forces with close air support, rocket artillery and nummerical parity or superiority to make a difference. Numbers matter, not some wundersystems. Real life is not a Rambo movie where one super hero mows down an entire army.

From my own grandfather: His war diary gives a prime example of what happened to a nummerical inferior force. My grandfather was around 40 Km away from central Moscow (Zvenigorod) in early December 1941 as part of the 267. Infantry Division. His diminished and exhausted 487. Regiment was tasked with guarding a frontline that was simply to long to withstand any serious assault. When the Red Army exploited that fact and hit his position, they simply retreated. This happened all over the frontline around Moscow and then over and over again, until is division was destroyed during Operation Bagration near Mogilev. He came back to Germany in 1950 after being taken POW.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 20:41 utc | 147

Russia has been under severe economic and financial sanctions for over a decade … US Congress and Biden would never allow gas flowing through Nord Stream 2 … Eastern nations, the Baltics, Poland were permanently agitating in NATO and the EU against Russia … Putin took the gamble by putting pressure on the West by positioning his AF and Belarusian forces along the border would opt for a political resolution of the Donbas. Zelensky was under criticism by domestic politics, off-shore holdings, low popularity ratings and was pressured for a military offensive against Luhansk and Donetsk. Early 2022 Putin had to decide to return forces to its bases or move his military into an offensive.

NATO, UK and Biden would never offer an opening for a diplomatic resolution, there has been no communication between the West and the Kremlin for many years. Russia failed to make a decisive impact in the first six months as NATO was training Ukrainian forces in large numbers equipping them and delivering crucial advanced weaponry. In addition the Pentagon set up logistics and are using their superior military intelligence to observe and learn from Russian battle tactics. Using the Ukraine theater of war as a laboratory setting. Russia is gambling on an early and harsh winter across Europe …

By sabotaging the gas pipelines, there is no off-ramp and the conflict will run its course. The military will continue until there is a clear winner. I fear the worst.

Posted by: Oui | Oct 4 2022 20:41 utc | 148

The UAF seems to be quite confident that they have the winning hand. But do they?

The UAF is achieving these breakthroughs by leaving their fortifications and safe areas and spreading themselves out at the very time that Russia is making these oblasts into Russian territory which changes the rules of engagement for the Russian military, at the exact time that the rains are starting which will limit much of their movement to paved roads which channelizes and makes predictable such movement?

And this is after Russia announced a partial mobilization and there are reports of massive equipment movements going towards the battlezone?

And the Russian military is said to be quite good at both deception and troop movements. So it might not be possible to know just how much and of what type of of troops and material are on the move and where they might end up?

And Russia is known to be able to hit virtually any target they want with as many missiles or rockets they want whenever they want?

And up against all this is the UAF's declining stocks of well-trained troops, armored vehicles,lack of artillery and air power BUT plus their newly-found ability to use well-coordinated elements of highly-mobile light infantry?

In poker if you have the best hand, called "the nuts", do you want your opponent to fold or to continue betting at you?

If you are eyeing the chance to take their entire stack of chips do you want them to be cautious or over-confident?

Posted by: Ocean Jasper | Oct 4 2022 20:45 utc | 149

Posted by: B9k9 | Oct 4 2022 19:45 utc | 112

« Wait for it; the nord false flag was just a dry run. »

Exactly. BINGO.
A last rehearsal after the 911 al-Suqami passport on the streets of New York and Christopher Steel connected Scripal Novichok lark, just testing if the public IQ is still <72. Not to mention the Branch Covidian sensation.

At this point they don't even need to stage a false flag event.
They are massaging us psychologically for an "inevitable" "pre-emptive" nuclear strike by US/NATO.

Posted by: Webej | Oct 4 2022 20:50 utc | 150

Putin wants to position russia as some kind of antithesis of the US world order but I dont think his ideology is really anything more than a reaction to the US project. His project isnt so much an alternative beyond american thinking but rather offering "not-Americanism", in other words. Demanding that nations have more control over their inner affairs is reasonable to a point but it's not much more complicated than pre-superpower politics. Its going to be a long, long time before anyone proposes an alternative ideology/project that goes beyond the concepts America is trying to make omnipresent, assuming it's even possible to conceptualize an alternative to american style behavior at this point.

Posted by: Deran deran | Oct 4 2022 20:54 utc | 151

Posted by: Ocean Jasper | Oct 4 2022 20:45 utc | 149

it feels exactly like that, and the ones who went all in dont want to say that :D

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 4 2022 20:54 utc | 152

@149 Ocean Jasper

The UAF seems to be quite confident that they have the winning hand. But do they?

Given Russian forces are currently outnumbered, outgunned and outflanked then the answer is, yes, they do.

The fact you have to ask the question is evidence that things are not going well for Russia.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 4 2022 20:57 utc | 153

Today for the first time certain Polish MSM was worried that Rzeszów might be a target for Kinzals.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 4 2022 21:04 utc | 154

There is another aspect, easy to notice when, say, comparing Mariupol to Izyum. By retreating quickly rather than fighting, Russia keeps cities and villages intact.
For the ukraine. Or for Russia, if the plan to take them back. Though they might need a different approach than they too with Mariupol.

Posted by: Marvin | Oct 4 2022 21:07 utc | 155

The war maps are not very informative. If you look at Google maps in the area of Dudchany village, you will see that it is next to a two lane paved road called the “T-0403” that proceeds along the west side of the Dnipro reservoir from Dudchany to the northeast. Just after the northern part of Dudchany, there is an offshoot of the reservoir crossed by a bridge. The T-0403 then continues to the southwest. Google streets actually works on the T-0403 and you can see the small size of Dudchany village and the poor condition of the T-0403, and that the offshoot of the reservoir is wide and full of water.

Reports are that the Ukrainian tank column proceeded down the T-0403 paved highway past Dudchany until it got to the bridge, only to discover that the Russians had removed it, leaving no way to cross the water.

It is interesting to look at the satellite version of Google maps and try to figure out what sort of detours the Ukrainian tank column would have to make to get around the water to the south side of Dudchany, and over what kind of roads.

Posted by: nazcalito | Oct 4 2022 21:09 utc | 156

The next stage is the signature of Vladimir Putin and the introduction of amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation on the basis of a decree of the head of state.

So, best wait for that. It might happen tomorrow or the day after. Ukraine will be at war with Russia, or Ukraine will be conducting terrorist attacks on Russian Federation territory. The Russian Federation constitution has a section on that.

Best wait until tomorrow, or the day after.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 4 2022 21:14 utc | 157

Putin's recent address has many parallels with Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation. They both transformed their respective conflicts into a larger moral sphere--Lincoln's from "saving the Union" to "ending slavery" and Putin's from denazification and demilitarization to defense of "Mother Russia". Both leadership statements showed resolve that began to slowly turn back support for the enemy (Britain abandoning the Confederacy, the European public withdrawing support for Ukraine.) Both followed military setbacks--Lincoln's after the bloody draw at Antietam Creek and the Union disaster at Fredericksburg and Russia's retreat from Kharkov and parts of Kherson (although the Kherson "retreat" seems miniscule at this point). Lincoln's proclamation was followed by an increasing mobilization and dominance of Union forces in the war of attrition, culminating in the fall of Vicksburg and the callosal Confederate defeat at Gettysburg six months later. Russia has begun a large mobilization and resupply that, if the other parallels ring true, are likely to do the very same. There is little doubt of the ultimate outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

Posted by: FHTEX | Oct 4 2022 21:14 utc | 158

@25 Stanislav

This is the most persuasive post I've seen today. The SMO has always been undermanned. Perhaps symptomatic of a top heavy Military staffed by comfortable garrison generals. War will change that (one hopes).

All the talk about network centric warfare now permeating the AFU...and...something has changed...HIMARS have made the difference degrading the Russian rear area...

Alexandar Mercouris had some interesting comments about how at the beginning of the war in feb the Russians did a stop loss and extended contracts for 6 months. That extension expired in August and surprise, a lot of, now experienced, soldiers went home. Alexander suggested a number of 50k. Could that be true. If so, it explains how Russian efforts went flat.

No doubt those 50k would be at the top of the recall list....

Ukrainian success in the offensive is explained in the same way as the Russians lack of success in producing large dramatic advances. Ukraine is willing to accept losses of men and equipment, whereas Russia is not.

Attacking and exploiting a penetration to dramatic effect will cost many lives. You sacrifice the first eschelon to close. Ukraine for now is ready and willing to pay the price. I don't believe the idea that Ukraine has unlimited manpower and the west has unlimited equipment to send.

There does seem to be evidence that the Russians have been a bit half hearted and complacent. Ironically, mobilization will play against that as mobilization removes the illusion that time is on Russia's side. The mobilized want to go home. The mobilized want victory and will bitch and complain over every SNAFU. The Russians replaced the senior commander who lost Lyman - by senior I mean the head of the Military District. Replaced with a new, younger guy who made is bones in Syria. That is a good sign. And unlike the American way, the old guy was not promoted.

It is "show me" time for the Russians. Losing in Kherson, means the war is lost. There is simply no way to spin it otherwise. If Russia is driven back across the Dnieper with significant losses it will be a material, political and morale blow that will be hard to recover from. If that happens I dont see how Putin remains in power.

Posted by: Dan Farrand | Oct 4 2022 21:17 utc | 159

I strongly recommend reading Thierry Meyssan's new article. (for other languages see menu on top)

The most important sentence You'll find below the last photograph: "Washington often wins because it sees further ahead than its allies." Please add here: ... sees further ahead than its allies and its enemies.

Or You could add: while Putin is wasting thousands of words and also the blood of so many good (Ukrainian & Russian) guys, Biden only says two sentences and gives order to blow up the pipe. Such are the deeds of a true HEGEMON !!

I understand that Your heart is on the side of Herrmann (Arminius) uprising against the empire. But even if he wins three or four battles (not only that in Teutoburg Forest) against the Roman legions, the Germans had to wait & fight 450 years more to see the Romans defeated . And one thousand years more to climb up to the same imperial level (Karl V.).

In five years Russia will be completely exhausted. And Europe will be layed down in smoking ruins. New York will be hit by nukes (not Russian ones, even if looking so ...). And Americans will fight against Americans. But the SENATORES, the EMPEROR and the PRAETORIANI will firmly stand on their feet. And shake hands with the Chinese ...


Please continue to comment & speculate about the Kremlin and its brilliant MoD ...


Posted by: Gerhard | Oct 4 2022 21:18 utc | 160

Communism will win

Posted by: moaobserver | Oct 4 2022 21:29 utc | 161

Annexation/incorporation - choose as you like - of the new oblasts allows to draw fresh troups from the local population of the "liberated" regions. Let them fight by themselves for their freedom. Imo, this was the main idea behind this move. Don't know if this really works out, but may be.

Is Russia interested in gaining more territory? I don't think so. It is perfectly sufficient to keep the current gains to maintain
the status of tension. Meanwhile the economic disaster will unfold in Europe and leave the US without its NATO allies.
Even a 'cold' peace (that Russia might offer, as soon as the new oblasts are more or less secured) will not stop the economic downfall.

Russia's performance on the battlefield may be pathetic. However, precisely this seduces the West to dig his own grave deeper.
The West is running out of time. And imo escalation does not help to get out of the trap.

Posted by: Linus | Oct 4 2022 21:31 utc | 162

Paulg | Oct 4 2022 21:14 utc | 157

Studying this I suspect that when or before the six month contracts were up, Russia decided to take it to a higher level. There has been attrition both from those who chose not to renew their contracts and casualties but rather than sending in replacements, Russia has been holding them back until they could operate under new rules of engagement. There has been a Russian buildup of forces at Crimea, Rostov and Belgorod. Ukraine is now operating as full nato military, but with the referendums, Biden has to all intents and purposes pulled the plug on Zelensky. Ukraine will now be hit by the full force of the Russian federation rather than an SMO tickle.
Thanks for putting up the details of the final signing.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 21:32 utc | 163


I’m more convinced of that than ever watching this liberal-on-liberal violence in Ukraine.

Posted by: linbiao | Oct 4 2022 21:33 utc | 164

I see that SCF's website's blocked after the crucial Crooke essay was published and I linked to it in several places. Should've kept that page open to further reference it. Oh Well....

Some blockheads up thread posit Russia will never attain its December security demands. I beg to differ since the beef is with the Outlaw US Empire, a political-economic entity that's in the midst of destabilizing into a basket case politically and economically. As I've pointed out, the federal government admits to having a negative equity of $126 Trillion, which is ultimately the source of the dysfunction. As most of the world now understands, the dollar is worthless as a store of value and a snare to hold as debt that's very difficult to escape as planned by IMF, et al. The upshot is the Empire lacks the resources required to defeat Russia and RoW in its attempt to attain Full Spectrum Dominance, just as WW2's Axis Powers lacked the resources required to beat that Era's global allies. Its Geoeconmics coupled to Real Economies, not paper manifestations created by Neoliberal Financialization. The Outlaw US Empire's Real GDP's been declining Depression-like since 2008 and was barely at breakeven during the ten previous years from 1998 and the crash. Hollowed-out as the article cited @124 describes, the main pillar of NATO lacks the facilities to wage any war of duration. Nor does it have weapons that match its adversaries.

Those who contrived the Cold War were certain of their superiority, but they forgot something--the huge fact that their elites were smitten with Pleonexia, which as the Greeks who coined the term warned would blind those afflicted to critical realities that would eventually defeat their efforts and ruin them. (I'm not suggesting Soviet leaders were better for they weren't much different corruption-wise.) Even worse, those currently holding power believe their own delusions regarding reality thus obligating them to operate from false premises at a time when sold facts are required. Of course, those who this commentary's aimed at don't want to entertain any of it and thus ignore what is written regardless its veracity.

Many view Trolls as Mules because while nominally male and female they're actually genderless since they're infertile and share mulish behavior, although very rare instances of reproduction occur allowing Trolls to avoid extinction. As such, Trolls cannot be orcs.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 4 2022 21:34 utc | 165

« Wait for it; the nord false flag was just a dry run. »

Exactly. BINGO.

They are massaging us psychologically for an "inevitable" "pre-emptive" nuclear strike by US/NATO.

Posted by: Webej | Oct 4 2022 20:50 utc | 150


Perhaps the global social conversation should move away from passive topical discussion to more actively sounding a world-wide alarm:


1. The $US dollar system requires constant expanionary growth to survive;

2. Credit expansion demands energy inputs along the entire cycle of production, delivery, use and service;

3. The world's last great stores of critical natural resources reside within the Russias geographic boundaries and remain under Russia's political control;

4. Ukraine is being used as a fulcrum to advance the collapse of the Russian state to facilitate resource expropriation for the West;

5. The USA lacks any feasible way forward to achieving victory in Ukraine by limiting itself to the use of conventional force of arms;

6. US failure in Ukraine will lead to a collapse of dollar dependent Western political and socio-economic institutions, including the MIC, Federal reserve and perhaps itself;

7. Failure vis-a-vis Russia in the Ukraine theater therefore threatens the USA with a direct, critical existentional crisis;

8. US policy and decision makers may have already concluded that a Sampson option via escalation represents the most logical option if the USA as it currently exists were to fail anyway.


It is concluded that global and worldwide political leaders, influential persons and other interested voices should appeal to more rationale minds within the US government to reconsider contemplating this course of action.

Posted by: B9k9 | Oct 4 2022 21:35 utc | 166

Here is a thought.

Perhaps Russia’s military campaign is co-ordinated with the US Election cycle.

Putin is arranging a nice October surprise for Biden.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Oct 4 2022 21:36 utc | 167

Posted by: Linus | Oct 4 2022 21:31 utc | 162

The alternative would most likely have been to give everyone wanting to leave DPR/LPR passports and abandon the place totally. But by now, we would then also have had Ukraine in Nato, joint exercises in Donbass, missiles in Donbass, and them attacking Crimea with the help of Nato. The eventual result would have been the complete same, except nukes would've flied already. We may still end up in the same end result.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2022 21:39 utc | 168

Zoom out a bit and see the opportunity this SMO affords Russia.
A relatively low risk (for RU) test of the armed forces & military industry.
All organisations have dead wood where a mechanism to get them out is required; here is Russia's.
An opportunity for young blood to bubble up, full of ideas & enthusiasm; able to operate computers instinctively and who understand the immense power of networks. An opportunity for the military industry to de-bottleneck processes and production lines; to strip away the unnecessary that clogs the arteries of these industries. An opportunity for new, younger businesses to show their stuff.
Provided the Russian Armed Forces see & use this opportunity; they will come out sharper, stronger, leaner & meaner than before.
Definitely a bulwark for the new Asian century.

Posted by: HossCara | Oct 4 2022 21:40 utc | 169

The gloves may come off because unmotivated Russian soldiers are surrendering with their hands up. Ukraine is winning now big time. The only Russian success is near Bahkmut where a months long siege continues to make small advances.

What the heck? All this optimism and cocksurety from pundits and commenters is not panning out. In retrospect, given their limited troops, the Russians should have just fought in the Donbas. Why are they getting creamed in Kherson northwest of a bridgeless river?

Posted by: Simon | Oct 4 2022 21:41 utc | 170

karlof1 | Oct 4 2022 21:34 utc | 165

Blocked here too.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 4 2022 21:42 utc | 171

Obviously, Russia hasn't the manpower to respond; Russia appears to be preparing the killing fields by coercing the spider out of the web and now that the law is in place hopefully Russia concludes the conflict. Russia may have learned from their Syrian experience when they had the terrorists virtually destroyed and the Russians then pulled out but had to return when the terrorists recovered and then opened the doors for the US to put their bases in Syria. Doubt that Russia will make that mistake again.

Posted by: John Mason | Oct 4 2022 21:42 utc | 172

The only way this ends is through regime change in Russia or in the West.
Which will come first?
I say the West will crack first because Evil

Posted by: Tom | Oct 4 2022 21:44 utc | 173

Posted by: Tom | Oct 4 2022 21:44 utc | 173

I say evil because of crack like hunting :D

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 4 2022 21:46 utc | 174

There are strange light beams tonight over several Russian cities tonight.
Some speculate it is Russian laser weapon that blinds satellites.

Posted by: Nico | Oct 4 2022 21:47 utc | 175


I doubt Putin lasts the winter. Unpopular war, stink of loser on Putin, and no consumer goods means it’s easy to activate the class of people receptive to color revolutions.

But maybe we’ll get lucky and the communists will take over again instead.

Posted by: linbiao | Oct 4 2022 21:55 utc | 176

@ Blissex | Oct 4 2022 18:31 utc | 69


In America, they were culturally depicted in the 1979 Hollywood blockbuster 'The Dearhunter' starring Robert DeNiro and Merril Streep. ... One of my favorite scenes of all time:

This was filmed at Lemko Hall in Cleveland, near the leviathan US Steel Works along the Cuyahoga River. ... These Carpatho-Rusyn (Ruthenian) immigrant folks in America were Russophiles more than Pro-Ukrainian. ... We always saw the Ukrainians as wealthy, self-centered, 'uppity', and rather stingy folks. I don't know if those trait translated in the Carpathians too.

Posted by: Mummer | Oct 4 2022 22:03 utc | 177

What about Ukrainian strategy?

I can't see how Ukraine can sustain its current tempo or win from this position, unless Russia gives up or something.

Ukraine's stated victory conditions are the return of the Donbass and Crimea. We already know that's not going to happen. So the best they can realistically hope for is to minimise the amount of territory they lose permanently to Russia.

Their recent gains are great for morale and propaganda purposes, but they're hollow victories, bought at a high price in Ukrainian blood while the great bulk of Russian forces simply retreat with their manpower and materiel intact. This must be very frustrating for Ukraine and NATO: over 6 months in, the goal of "weakening Russia" doesn't look any closer, while Ukraine and NATO have been badly weakened and are facing troubles that get bigger with every day that passes.

They need to somehow bring Russia to battle and inflict decisive defeats on them to have a chance of winning the war. I don't see them being able to do that successfully, especially with Russian reinforcements on the way.

If we think of this war like a boxing match, Ukraine is throwing a lot of wild punches right now. Most are hitting fresh air, but it looks impressive to spectators who don't know any better. Russia is the cannier boxer, keeping his guard up and using his legs to conserve energy and avoid getting hurt. All signs point to a knockout in the later rounds.

War isn't boxing, but it's more like boxing than it is a game of Capture the Flag. You need to inflict lots of physical damage on your opponent in order to beat him. Even in its greatest successes of the war so far, Ukraine is failing to significantly attrit Russian numbers, while their own troops come home in hundreds - sometimes thousands - of bodybags every day.

It's a desperation play. The tone of the West is sounding pretty desperate too. The MSM won't stop yammering about nukes. That means they're being briefed to yammer about nukes. The reason nuclear weapons are very much on the West's mind is because we've already lost the economic war, and are facing either outright defeat or a frustrating permaconflict we really can't afford. Blowing up pipelines, and terrifying the public with lies about nuclear-crazed Russians, are not smart things to do. They're desperate flailing by a tiring pugilist who's afraid of getting knocked out.

Posted by: ZX | Oct 4 2022 22:04 utc | 178


War is never popular, especially now that people prefer to live on the Internet and not care about anyone else but themselves. But really, once Russian society understands what is going on, they will understand and support Putin. He is way ahead of society, which makes it difficult to convince people. There is also a fifth column in society, that needs to be removed.

Posted by: Nico | Oct 4 2022 22:06 utc | 179

On the 5th of October, actually right now, the four republics/regions will become part of Russia. And then the big cavalary will (or can) ride in. It is just waiting. Then why let any one of your police force die one hour before. Mind you, that is also the moment to play the hand in different possible ways. I am sure there are offers (aka threats) going towards the West. If no negotiations come to fruit, when and how the hammer is going to come down, a little surprise moment should be part of it. Reserves are coming in at a minimum.
But legally, if war is declared, regular army can be applied as well. The russian fighters right now were all sent on contract basis, six months, and we are stretching already into 9 months. So one more day/hour.. p a t i e n c e, guys and girls..
P.S. the recent Russian retreats also saved some Ukrainian lifes, in case further fighting will be pointless, if some common sense prevails against all odds.

Posted by: C | Oct 4 2022 22:07 utc | 180

For those interested in reality as opposed to the hopium of “gloves coming off” as b writes (btw, for how long have the gloves been coming off?). Read below the situation on the ground in Kherson where 25,000 Russian soldiers are essentially trapped and cornered with dwindling supplies of food, fuel and ammo.

In Kherson the russians hold a sizeable bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro river (shaded red), which could only be supplied by two bridges, one just a bit North of Kherson and the other over the dam at Nova Kakhovka (purple pentagons). Since the arrival of M142 HIMARS both crossing have been pounded heavily by Ukrainian forces.

Since August the Antonovsky bridge near Kherson is impassable for vehicles (photo), while the dam at Nova Kakhovka is still passable for trucks, but not heavy vehicles (photo). Over the last month Ukraine has been wearing the russian forces in Kherson down: through artillery fire, constant probing attacks, drone attacks, and by destroying their ammo and supplies. russia brought in pontoons to supply its forces in the South near Kherson (photo), but thanks to HIMARS Ukraine has been hitting and sinking these pontoons.

Now Ukraine went on the offensive in the North and quickly overran the starving, demoralized russian forces there. This is the same map as in tweet 1, but seeing this map makes it easier to understand Ukraine’s initial attacks (blue arrows):
One attack pierced the russian line near the Dnipro, using the 5 km wide river to cover its eastern flank. At the same time Ukrainian troops attacked from their Inhulets bridgehead – thus fixing the russians forces there in place.
Meeting little resistance Ukrainian forces pushed South to Dudchany. This meant that the russian troops still holding the front in the North are now at risk of being encircled. The latest news indicate that these russians are already fleeing from there (red arrows).
Kherson is steppe = a flat landscape with some thin treelines as only cover. There are no natural barriers, which makes it impossible for the russians to set up an improvised defensive line. The russians can’t stop retreating until the next natural barrier: either the Dnipro river or the Inhulets river. Retreating over the Dnipro Nova Kakhovka would make more sense for the russians, as (Photo of the landscape in northern Kherson – ideal armored warfare country) here their trucks and light vehicles can still cross and once on the left bank the russians could set up a defensive line to secure the rear of their forces fighting in Zaporizhzhia.

The other option is to retreat South to the Inhulets river (blue line). Retreating to the Inhulets would be what a complete moron does… so the russians will do it.

Let’s look again at the map with the second phase of the operation in Kherson: the russians retreat either over the Nova Kakhovka dam or over the Inhulets river: if they retreat over the dam they will have to leave all their heavy vehicles behind, if they retreat over the Inhulets they will have to abandon most of their vehicles for lack of fuel.
And if the russians retreat over the Inhulets, the Ukrainians can cross the Dnipro and establish a bridgehead on the left bank, from which they can attack towards Crimea and Melitopol. At Kakhovka they can also cut the water to Crimea.

In short the russians only have bad options (putin the “strategic genius” at it again).

Some russians will flee over the Nova Kakhovka dam, but most will retreat over the Inhulets… and as said that’s the most moronic option, because then the russians there will be boxed in by Ukrainian troops from three sides, with M777 howitzers able to hit almost every spot, and AHS Krab, PzH 2000, Zuzana 2 and CAESAR able to hit every spot. And the only supply line will be pontoons, whose landing spots on both sides of the Dnipro are in Ukrainian artillery range.
Retreating over the Inhulets is retreating into a death trap. Once Ukrainian M777 can hit the pontoons no ammo, no fuel, no food – nothing will reach the 15,000 russians stuck there. It’s starve to death or freeze to death or surrender for them.

And they can’t flee across the Antonovsky bridge as Ukrainian spotters will see them & artillery will shred them. And in fall/winter they can’t swim across the 1 km wide Dnipro river with its freezing water, as that would mean death by hypothermia.

Putin just annexed Kherson, so he refuses to give it up… which means he has doomed all the russian troops there to death.

Posted by: Jim Lacey | Oct 4 2022 22:09 utc | 181

This English Tom uk has face to talk about battles and wars when his country can only plot wars but has no guts to fight on her own?

May 5, 2011
Last year, British forces in Helmand province sent a message to the Taliban that all major operations were carried out by the Americans, so if we, Taliban, did not target them, the British forces would not target the Taliban," Nazir said!

What a coward the English pirate nation is!!

Hitler’s Generals surrounded 300K Brits at Dunkirk, and were ready to finish the job, when Hitler stopped them, saying, 'we are not in the killing business !'
The Brits crow about Dunkirk which was a deliberate gift by hiler to Brutish, as if it was an heroic act when it was a case of coward English fleeing from the enemy after getting permission to flee from same enemy.
Only Hitler's personal command to halt prevented Guderian's tanks and troops turning Dunkirk into an English  bloodbath. And as typical of the English cowards they fled tha battle field as soon as possible-hitler gave them 3 full days !  All because  vile coward liar  Churchill promised something to hitler only token resistance to  his ultimate aim-to destroy russia and (thus from brutish  point of view germans too.).

When someone asked Bismark once what he would do if the British invaded, he said he’d have the border police arrest them (or words to that effect—“ "If the British Army landed in Europe, I'd get the Belgian police to arrest them." ).-that is how low the Germans thought of the English army capability at height of victorian period –and the Germans were right as was shown the cowardice of non fighting coward English troops in both world wars-they instigated others to fight but remained behind in actual fighting till late.
Remember Bismarck said that when the pirate empire called british empire was at height of her pseudo power-in other words Prussians could defeat the English race at the height of their so called power. And rightly so.  english then and now are ready to fight only unarmed civilians.

It is the coward English who plotted Russian invasion by Napoleon the Great.

Considering the extent of the disaster (at battle of Austerlitz and of Ulm before that in 1805 instigated by england with money stolen from India), The Austrian Emperor said


The Emperor forgot to mention that the payment of gold is from the victim or some other people’s wealth especially loot from India.

When it comes to actual war, Anglos are cowards and only attack when they’re sure nothing happens to them. But they are very good at corrupting their opponents from inside, using terrorists, inciting civil wars and so on. No one should underestimate them when it comes to combination of lies, bribes, terrorists and other dirty stuff.

Posted by: sam | Oct 4 2022 22:09 utc | 182

Barflies knew this was coming, "US floats new fears of Russian election interference – media: Federal officials have reportedly warned that Russia aims to 'amplify doubts' about the integrity of the congressional midterms."

There're those unnamed Federal officials again! Russia doesn't need to do anything as BigLie Media will do it all instead as it just proved. Soon, we'll see crap linking Biden's "Enemy Within" speech to unfounded allegations of Russian interference, which of course the Outlaw US Empire never ever does to any nation--but don't look at all those sanctions. FYI, doubts about election integrity are an American Pastime having existed since its inception. Fixed elections are as American as Apple Pie.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 4 2022 22:10 utc | 183

Keep in mind that Ukraine needs mechanized troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers, as spearheads to execute offensives.

Precisely my point....

The Ukies used up their original war wagon stocks.... tanks... APCs.... trucks...

The late summer offensive was only possible with NATO war wagons...

These mostly destroyed in the offensives...


Only a matter of days/weeks... before these run out....

Keep in mind that the HIMARS keep getting destroyed by Loitering UAVs -- Geran -2.. or whatever the Iranians call them..


These can find and destroy the HIMARS during that 2 min window when they are positioned to launch...


Conventional Russian Artillery cannot do...


Which is it??

Rain & Mud...


Ukie soldiers marching to battle...


Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 4 2022 22:15 utc | 184

I don't think that it is hard to understand Putin's mentality. "If you want to be free of Kiev's nazist regime, fight and I will support you". Simple as that. Donbass fought and it got support. Kherson switched sides and got support. Kharkov didn't (just a s Kiev in the start of the war).

Kharkov stood silently, waiting for Russia to liberate it. Same as Odessa. Well, Putin decided to not fight their war. Simple as that. Rise and fight and you get support, sit and wait and you will be Ukrainians (also known as cannon fodder), for the rest of your lives.

What REALLY worries me is the increased propaganda about a possible nuclear attack in the region. I'm really afraid that the US gone desperate and they will try something. Greek TV actually said that Putin will nuclear hit Russian cities near the border to stop the Ukrainian advance. That kind of propaganda scares the hell out of me.

Posted by: Erlindur | Oct 4 2022 22:15 utc | 185

@Jim Lacey

Haha,quoting Thomas Theiner from Southern Tyrol as some kind of authority exposes you to ridicule. You clearly are late to the party, but I remember this Twitter chearleader for Ukraine with his outlandish claims very well from back in 2014. We are back at where we started.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 4 2022 22:18 utc | 186

Having read the whole thread, which seems to grow more rapidly than one can read it, I am missing one consideration:

»» To take back the terrein being sacrificed now will require not only superior numbers, but sacrifice. ««
Offense costs more lives than defense, and that is why progress is so slow in the Donbas.

I don't see any of the people promoting the Mongolian retreat tactics considering the costs of retreat and reconquest.
The new line that has been broken on the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnjepr was there long enough to fortify and was undoubted military significant, but apparently it was not fortified adequately. As in earlier retreats, there was no plan B or plan C with mobile reserves to come to the aid of the cleverly sparsely manned defensive lines to devastate the advancing enemy. Reserves never arrive timely and in strength to turn the tide.

Although I am not privy to the competing considerations of Russia's General Staff, having no solid defense plans in this important sector does not sound like a plan, no matter how you spin it. Konashenkov can drone on all he likes about all the devastation (up to *150 enemy personnel, always setting an upper limit instead of a minimum) that was wrought the day before yesterday while ignoring currently retreating defense lines, one cannot avoid the impression that little headway is being made.

Maybe I'm wrong, and the Ukrainian wave has broken and the surf is about to reach the upper lip of the tide before it washes back, but I'm starting to doubt we're seeing the last cresting momentum.

Posted by: Webej | Oct 4 2022 22:22 utc | 187

If NATO forces are actually in the field, and I'm not doubting they are in special ops sized elements, "contractors" firing HIMARS, field and company level commands, etc, but if truly full NATO or heavily mixed NATO with Ukies units are actively in combat, how long can their casualties be hidden from the various publics? Sooner or later, there are only so many fatal "training accidents", especially with bodies unrecoverable, that can happen.

U.S. military parents are connected, my wife is on multiple "Army mama" sites. If "Billy' dies in that accident, and "Johnny" in that one and "Juan" in yet another, people will start to wonder that the hell is going on? Of course, knowing something is "wrong" with an uptick in "non-combat" deaths and if anybody with a major public microphone can spread the word more than the grunt parents can, is another matter in itself...

Posted by: DakotaRog | Oct 4 2022 22:22 utc | 188

They had the clear initiative.
They were dominating the battlefield and controlled movement and hit major targets as far as Lviv.
What happened?
They ran out of men, materiel, were overstretched (obvious).
All these history majors in this blog cannot do basic math. Clock is ticking. Russia is losing.

Posted by: Battenmountain | Oct 4 2022 22:25 utc | 189

183 Cont'd--

Polls like this recent one by Monmouth citied by RT are useless when it comes to forecasting mid-term elections since they're done on a district by district or state by state basis, not nationally. National sentiment seems to favor gridlocked government, however.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 4 2022 22:28 utc | 190

Barflies knew this was coming, "US floats new fears of Russian election interference – media: Federal officials have reportedly warned that Russia aims to 'amplify doubts' about the integrity of the congressional midterms."

There're those unnamed Federal officials again! Russia doesn't need to do anything as BigLie Media will do it all instead as it just proved. Soon, we'll see crap linking Biden's "Enemy Within" speech to unfounded allegations of Russian interference, which of course the Outlaw US Empire never ever does to any nation--but don't look at all those sanctions. FYI, doubts about election integrity are an American Pastime having existed since its inception. Fixed elections are as American as Apple Pie.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 4 2022 22:10 utc | 183

That just means they're prepping the ground for more Zimbabwe style election fraud. Anybody who causes a fuss will be denounced as a Russian agent. This one isn't really about Russia, except tangentially. It's about an enemy they hate and fear even more than Russia: their own working classes.

What REALLY worries me is the increased propaganda about a possible nuclear attack in the region. I'm really afraid that the US gone desperate and they will try something. Greek TV actually said that Putin will nuclear hit Russian cities near the border to stop the Ukrainian advance. That kind of propaganda scares the hell out of me.

Posted by: Erlindur | Oct 4 2022 22:15 utc | 185

It should, the US government just pulled off the biggest single act of international terrorism in human history, and they did it to their "allies".

There is nothing too evil for these people.

Posted by: ZX | Oct 4 2022 22:30 utc | 191

B's speculation that the retreats were multi-dimensional chess designed to get Russian voters to understand the need for an escalation is worth considering, but like all multi-dimensional chess theories, it violates Occam's Razor.

I find it easier to believe that Russia's peacetime military became soft and complacent as militaries often do, and overconfident that Russia's technical superiority could substitute for boots on the ground (a mistake that the U.S. has also made repeatedly). The Russian deciders failed to have a plan to deal with the contracts that expired in August. That was a major screw-up and I call BS on attempts to explain it away.

In every war, both sides make some mistakes, and contrary to what Martyanov seems to believe, Russians are not a superior race and not above screwing up. To Russia's credit, the referendums and mobilization seem to be a defacto acknowledgement that mistakes were made and changes were needed. I don't doubt that Russia has the resources and the determination to prevail militarily, though it remains to be seen how they will win the peace.

Posted by: Dan Lynch | Oct 4 2022 22:32 utc | 192

@182 sam

That is all very nice and and super interesting, but it has no relevance to the conflict in Ukraine.

A cup of tea and a lie down is my advice.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 4 2022 22:33 utc | 193

Interesting video on TG... the "beam of lights" that were reported in several locations seem to be originating from/near an electrical substation. If you need a lot of juice.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 4 2022 22:33 utc | 194

Suggestion: Maybe it might be a good idea for b to open a thread discussing when an attack can be called NUCLEAR

Posted by: radkomladic | Oct 4 2022 17:29 utc | 24

I second.

Posted by: Forest | Oct 4 2022 22:34 utc | 195

You are on my list, and I inadvertently read your drivel.
BOY, talk about something you know, no prognostications now. I find it funny since you seem to be a UKIE troll. I first had you as GBR but now you seem more SBU...LOL.
Anyhow, I guffawed so hard, my coffee almost came out my nostrils...Erm, mouth. I see now why the regulars recommend writing down the "narrative posters".

Posted by: Arcticman | Oct 4 2022 22:36 utc | 196

The Russian-Ukrainian troops in the recaptured Ukraine areas were abandoned by Moscow on purpose. They have to understand they take orders from Moscow now. It was done to show who is boss.

Posted by: Robert Browning | Oct 4 2022 22:36 utc | 197

b, thanks for this thoughtful (as always) analysis. Thanks also for deleting the comment by that Polack troll purportedly linking to a dog eating a dead Russian. I was going to correct him and point out that it was actually the Hyena of Europe devouring the western part of a dead Ukronazi, but you beat me to it.

Posted by: jmj59 | Oct 4 2022 22:38 utc | 198

The Russians traded land for time when Napoleon invaded and when NATO expanded. When the Germans invaded Land was involuntary traded for time. History tells us that to the Russian General Staff land means nothing. The outcome is what counts. Also remember Cannae.

Posted by: Matt | Oct 4 2022 22:39 utc | 199

NemesisCalling | Oct 4 2022 20:18 utc | 131

Nemesis is here to poison people's minds.
"you hide your Jewishness"
unlike your supposed savior, hanging naked upon a tree.

"Nazis believe in nationalism! it's in the very name! We Nazis believe in national boundaries and nation states! that's why we hates Jews and love Israel so very, very much. We are not "internationalists". We believe in the nation."

a blond haired blue eyed Aryan superrace...led by a brunette Fuhrer...

Nemesis, like every poster here who blabs off about THE JEWS, is here to poison discourse. he hates that his religion and thus identity comes from Jews.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 4 2022 22:40 utc | 200

« previous page | next page »

The comments to this entry are closed.