Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 08, 2022

Ukraine SitRep - Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides

Updated w/r to Starlink below (Oct 9 4:00 utc):

Yesterday saw two significant developments or incidents with regard to the conflict in Ukraine.

The Kerch bridges which connect Crimea with Russia, one for cars and one for trains, were sabotaged. At least one of the two road spans has fallen down while tanker rail cars on the parallel train bridge caught fire.


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CCTV footage shows that a truck exploded while passing the bridge. Here is a video of the damage. One of the two road spans seems to be intact.

As the pillars of the bridge seem unaffected a repair of the broken road span is possible but will take some time. The more sturdy railway bridge may have some superficial fire damage but Russia is one of the few countries that has designated railroad troops specialized in and equipped for railway repairs. The railway traffic is likely to be back within a few day or weeks.

This is a severe handicap for Russian logistics to the frontlines in south Ukraine but not a catastrophe as alternative rail and road routes, as well as ferries, are available. Military logistics is designed to work even under significant constrains. It will find ways to work around the problem.

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Meanwhile the Ukrainian side of the conflict experiences a communication failure that is likely way more consequential.

Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️@AdamKinzinger - 16:26 UTC · Oct 7, 2022

Evidently the Starlink system is down over the front lines of Ukraine. @elonmusk should make a statement about this, or, this should be investigated. This is a national security issue.

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Tore @potifar66 - 21:55 UTC · Oct 7, 2022

Some of the outages led to a “catastrophic” loss of communication in recent weeks, said one senior Ukrainian government official with direct knowledge of the issue.

ft.com: Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia
Some of Elon Musk’s SpaceX devices stopped working when Ukrainian soldiers liberated territory, Kyiv officials say

Update (Oct 9 4:00 utc):

The Financial Times piece, which I can not access, leaves open the possibility that Starlink had willfully disabled the functioning of its system in previously Russian held areas. Via Business Insider:

Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, told FT the issue could be caused by SpaceX representatives working to make sure Russian soldiers couldn't use the technology, as the liberation of some of the areas had not been made public yet at the time of the connectivity issues.

End-Update.

The Russian army is leading globally in its abilities to wage electronic warfare. It can disable ground based radio traffic on any frequency. It has now found ways to also disable ground to satellite connections as used by the Starlink constellation.

At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian military was supplied with thousands of Starlink ground terminals that can connect to the swarms of small Starlink satellites, which were financed by the Pentagon, but managed by Elon Musk's companies. They allowed for communication between Ukrainian ground units as well as for general command and control of larger operations. Without Starlink the Ukrainian command will depend on cable based field telephone, runners and couriers. All of which are extremely vulnerable in an artillery rich environment.

Since 2001 Russia developed the Tirada 2 electromagnetic system which can disable ground to satellite traffic in specific areas.

Russian military in the near future can get into service systems that can disable enemy communication satellites, an informed Interfax interlocutor in the military-industrial complex said 05 January 2018. “One of the projects is Tirada 2. Development work was started back in 2001,” he said. According to him, this complex will be able to disable communication satellites from the ground. “He acts by electronic suppression. This is a multi-million dollar project,” he said. The fact that the Russian Federation is working on the creation of weapons to suppress satellites was announced on November 30 last year by Oleg Achasov, deputy head of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “46 Central Scientific Research Institute”.
...
In November 2018, the FSB called the “threat to national security” a project to cover the globe with high-speed satellite Internet.

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In 2019 an OSCE observer drone took pictures of a Tirada complex in the Donbas region.


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The disablement of the Starlink communication traffic was only a question of time. The traffic had to be analyzed to identify the frequencies and algorithms used by the transmitter and receiver. Software had to be written to implement a matching radio jamming pattern. The hardware of the Tirada system was likely already sufficient to emit the appropriate patterns on the identified frequencies.

As this system has now been proven to be effective in the field it will likely be made available on a wider scale. Russian electronic warfare equipment can already disable all ground radio traffic in specific areas. Soon all frontline communications of the Ukrainian forces will be disabled.

This is catastrophic for Ukrainian operations. Forward observers will no longer be able to correct artillery missions. Platoons and companies at the front will have no way to call for support. Higher command will have no way to coordinate larger operations in real time.

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One Dr. Jay Tharappel has found language likely to comfort the woke U.S. and Ukrainian leaders and functionaries who are concerned about the four Oblast that have joined the Russian Federation.


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"These four provinces are Russian, but they were assigned 'Ukrainian' at birth. Recently the have come out as trans. They are border-fluid regions and their sovereignty is non-binary. They are Russians trapped in a 'Ukrainian' body, and have made their decision to transition. Their pronouns are now DPR/LPR. We Indians as allies support this transition and condemn the transphobic attitudes of westerners."

Something tells me that soon more 'Ukrainian' oblasts will come out and recognize their real being.

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Boris Rozhin, aka Colonel Cassad, reported on Telegraph (machine translation):

Today there was a sortie of foreign mercenaries in the Zaporozhye direction, which included, among other things, American special forces soldiers. They were so self-confident that they decided to carry out reconnaissance in battle with this stellar squadron. However, they did not take into account the presence of our units in this zone, which are able to maintain secrecy on the air, and suffered losses. However, some of these bastards still managed to escape. The presented photos are screenshots of the video from the go-pro camera of one of the dead mercenaries, who literally lost his head. I'll probably post the video tomorrow.

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I have no way to verify those claims but a recent Intercept report stated that there are significant U.S. forces on the ground in Ukraine:

One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency “never completely left.”

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February, several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said. The finding indicates that the president has quietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administration’s decision to conduct a broad program of clandestine operations inside the country.

These will not be the only U.S. casualties in Ukraine. When more such reports come out the issue is likely to explode in Biden's face.

Posted by b on October 8, 2022 at 7:58 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page | next page »

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 2:45 utc | 499

Surely the bridge is a dual-use structure and as such is a perfectly legitimate military target.

That is not the question I asked. Let me try again:

Are the Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian infrastructure justified under your moral framework?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 2:49 utc | 501

@werefox #493:

> And what about the two cars that were next to him? Collateral damage?

Apparently one of those carried the actual ED. This is how the truck passed the checkpoint, it simply had no explosives on board. Only a few tons of saltpeter.

Can you please give a source for this?

Posted by: S | Oct 9 2022 2:50 utc | 502

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 2:45 utc | 499

Surely the bridge is a dual-use structure

Another thing: This "dual use" nonsense also needs to stop.

It's a form of sophistry used to justify mass murder.

Everything can be construed as "dual use" in the end.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 2:54 utc | 503

The picture looks like photoshop.

Posted by: Smith | Oct 9 2022 2:57 utc | 504

Oh, and one more thing.

The Soviet Empire was probably the only empire in history that functioned in reverse.

Usually the center sucks resources in from the periphery.

It was the exact opposite with the Soviets, both within the USSR, where the peripheral republics, and especially the currently most rabidly anti-communist ones (the Baltics and Ukraine) were the most privileged, and within the broader sphere.

The peripheral republics were better supplied, received much of the hi-tech industry, had better standards of living, etc. compared to the Russian core.

And the satellites received oil, gas and other natural resources from the USSR for very cheap, often even for free, and standards of living there were again a lot better than those in the USSR itself.

I don't have to go into a direct comparison with Western practices.

It is also worth reminding that on multiple occasions countries actually wanted to join the USSR.

Tuva, which had never been a part of the Russian empire, did join in the 1940s, and is now a RF republic.

Less known is that Mongolia also begged to join the USSR something like half a dozen times, but was always refused. The other case I am aware of is Bulgaria, who asked twice, the Soviets refused in that case too.

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 9 2022 2:57 utc | 505

And wow, B is linking 4chan post.
4chan is merging to reality now.

Posted by: Smith | Oct 9 2022 2:58 utc | 506

Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 9 2022 2:45 utc | 497

What the attack on the bridge tells us is that Ukraine now has capabilities it apparently did not have in March.

Wrong.

It tells you nothing about *their* 'capabilities'.

It tells you *someone* was able to execute a single action once.

It states nothing about whether this is a new capability.

It states nothing about whose hypothetical capability it is.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 3:01 utc | 507

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 7:58 utc | 510

You cannot on the one hand argue that it is licit for Russia to take out Ukrainian infrastructure but on the other hand that it is illicit for Ukraine to take out Russian infrastructure.

I never have made that argument.

The standard applies to both sides equally.

Russia is as guilty of war crimes as Ukraine.

The axe of moral truth cuts both ways.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 3:04 utc | 508

Posted by: ForgotMyOriginalNick | Oct 8 2022 12:30 utc | 133

Your heuristic is an excellent one, but almost none of the commenters here apply it, unfortunately.

We can expect the Russian response to be a couple of cutting remarks in one of Maria's pressers and perhaps some whining at the UN.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Oct 9 2022 3:07 utc | 509

@ OohCanada | Oct 9 2022 2:08 utc | 488

the freeland interview with soros you reference.. i hadn't seen it before... thanks.. it is fairly fresh - aug 31st and not the whole interview... 1 minute splice...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpvPRyhKjV4

"...a dual-use structure and as such is a perfectly legitimate military target." you mean like kiev parliament buildings where zelensky is stationed from time to time?

Posted by: james | Oct 9 2022 3:08 utc | 510

bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

WJ | Oct 9 2022 7:58 utc | 513

time code is fucked up here b....

Posted by: james | Oct 9 2022 3:09 utc | 511

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 3:04 utc | 510

I agree with you about the moral axe cutting both ways.
I disagree about dual-use structure. I think in certain cases this is very real and can justify military strikes against such targets. This of course doesn’t mean the principle can’t be abused.

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 3:13 utc | 512

Regarding possible US Special Forces loses in Ukraine, while it has been Defense Department policy to release information on US military "casualties" i.e. deaths in foreign lands as "news releases", it seems that Special Forces deaths do not qualify for such recognition.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 9 2022 3:14 utc | 513

I think my earlier post keeps reposting. I am not doing it. Apologies for the annoyance.

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 3:15 utc | 514

This whole discussion about what can be bombed and what can't is ridiculous. In war, as practiced especially by the US, anything goes. . .Turn a city and all its inhabitants to dust? Shock & Awe? Not a problem.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 9 2022 3:19 utc | 515

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 0:23 utc | 461

Very well said. And for these Baltic peoples as well as the Poles, the chickens are coming home to roost. 20%+ inflation is only a taste of what's coming for them.

Posted by: Unnamed | Oct 9 2022 3:23 utc | 516

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 3:13 utc | 514

I disagree about dual-use structure. ... This of course doesn’t mean the principle can’t be abused.

It will always be abused.

In the extremes of war, even the most egregious violation of the principle can be justified:

Bombed a nursery full of babies? Well, you've just destroyed an enemy combatant training ground - they would have all ended up as recruits anyway.

That is the ugliness of War: War inevitably erases all morality.

Nobody gets out of war with clean hands. It's about survival, not piety.

The one who comes out alive gets to revise the morality text books.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 3:25 utc | 517

@WJ #516:

I think my earlier post keeps reposting. I am not doing it. Apologies for the annoyance.

The comment you posted at 2:58 UTC has been erroneously assigned a timestamp of 7:58 UTC due to ongoing problems at Typepad, the blogging platform used by MoA. The comment will continue to display at the bottom of the thread for the next 4.5 hours.

Posted by: S | Oct 9 2022 3:30 utc | 518

@ WJ | Oct 9 2022 3:15 utc | 516

it is some quirk of this typepad platform that has been happening at moa lately.... it has the wrong time stamp, so it sits at the bottom until the clock strikes 7: 59 utc...

Posted by: james | Oct 9 2022 3:30 utc | 519

@512 Talking of Freeland what happened to the 'Lima Group'? I thought they were supposed to reorganize S. America, get rid of Maduro and install Guaido. Maybe Venezuelan oil got more attractive.

Posted by: dh | Oct 9 2022 3:34 utc | 520

People seem to think this is a war between Russia and Ukraine when it is really a war between the west and the rest, with "Ukraine" the western proxy and Russia the frontline. I'd like to think that the non western nations are united, but will be content with them being partners with the veto option. Most importantly, these nations do not wish to be- or remain, losers. A lot is a stake.
The west is running out of ammo, and I'm going to guess that munitions and ordnance production is not particularly streamlined. Switching to the terrorist modus is cost effective, and now that people's minds have either been numbed or colonised (big thanks here to Cass Sunstein) the terrorist acts will be whoopied or rationalised as "all's fair in love and war". In other words, the west has made a bonfire of international laws. But to wage war on such a massive scale- even when proxified- requires political cohesiveness. The western thinktanks have selected "values" as the unifier but,
perforce, they are better than God and must be deified, so no heresy allowed, or else!
And so into the bonfire go our values.
President Putin has begun to to realise, with reluctance, the utter bankruptcy (figuratively, literally, and make that a double!) of the west. It's not fun here any more, and your very own "community" is always shrinking. Atomisation on a grand scale.
Lots of comments, lots of concern and conniption and propaganda trolling.
But I believe President Putin knows that the Angels are on side. It's not even a case of "versus". This is a war about goodness prevailing.
The bridge is repairable, even though the railway gauge is a Russian measurement, not compatible with other European railways. It's all in the planning. Putin's the man.
Here is an excellent and thoughtful piece, though written before the bridge sabotage, that may assuage nerves. It is about the Clausewitz approach to war.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means

Posted by: Australian lady | Oct 9 2022 3:42 utc | 521

Posted by: RationalPeacekeeper | Oct 8 2022 16:28 utc | 259

Yes, Ritter was right all along. Remember the roasting we all gave him here? Current comments show that few of us have learned anything since.

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Oct 9 2022 3:53 utc | 522

@ Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 2:49 utc | 503

That's why I have some issues taking the Russian threats of a powerful response if Russian territory was to be attacked at face value. Russia has/is attacking targets all over Ukrainian territory but I they strike back that would be unacceptable.
Smells of double standards and sounds more like a threat the west would make.
But like I said, IMO the best response Russia can give is to win the war. No be manipulated into actions one wouldn't have done othewise.

Posted by: GoverntheMente | Oct 9 2022 4:18 utc | 523

@S #504

The usual - anonymous expert on a Russian news channel.

Posted by: werefox | Oct 9 2022 4:32 utc | 524

I wish Russia would flatten some NATO bases in Ukraine, and also in Syria and Iraq.

IMO Russia should concentrate at least as much on these as on Uke forces.

Posted by: Featherless | Oct 9 2022 4:53 utc | 525


Given the yellow peril hysteria that already exist, I can only imagine the absolute pandemonium in NATOland if China militarizes any assistance in Ukraine. Those voices castigating China for not jumping into the fray are subversive agents masquerading as anti-imperialists. The neoliberal cabal's wet dream in Washington is to have a Chinaman stain his hand with the blood of a blond blue-eyed whitey. For better or worse, China's policy has been one of non-interference. It has maintained a good relationship with the Zelensky regime despite being firmly in Russia's camp. Note, in the recent UN Human Rights Council vote to reject a US-led proposal to debate the Xinjiang issue, Ukraine abstained to the fury of the Biden's White House.

Posted by: Jun | Oct 9 2022 4:57 utc | 526

The Crimean Bridge is one of a few logistic bottlenecks supplying fuel, ammo and other supplies to regions further west. Any NATO/Ukrainian military planner worth their salt is going to strategize targeting these bottlenecks. Russian military leadership has to know this and plan accordingly and generally have done a decent job, but not great job. Think they messed up a bit letting a truck bomb get through while a fuel train was on the bridge. In the future maybe close the bridge to traffic when vital war supplies are going through.

Posted by: Haassaan | Oct 9 2022 5:01 utc | 527

@ dh | Oct 9 2022 3:34 utc | 523

well crystia is falling down on the job, lol... she is our very own liz truss, although she is probably better with russian names and places, lol..

Posted by: james | Oct 9 2022 5:26 utc | 528

S @ 492:

Source is Athens News at en.rua.gr. I also saw a translation of a tweet by Semyon Pegov at The New Kremlin Stooge where he refers to Biji al Kamurji as being the driver.

You are correct in saying the current owner (on paper) is Samir Yusupov / Yusubov.

Posted by: Jen | Oct 9 2022 5:41 utc | 529

Australian Lady @ 524.

Thank you. Informative yes.

Posted by: timbo | Oct 9 2022 6:05 utc | 530

re Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 3:04 utc | 510
"Russia is as guilty of war crimes as Ukraine."

weird, so I guess it was Russia that has been daily, for the last 8 1/2 years and more, shelling civilian cities and towns in the Ukraine, and killing thousands of civilians, and injuring many tens of thousands more, then....

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 9 2022 6:05 utc | 531

Posted by: Australian lady | Oct 9 2022 3:42 utc | 524

Excellent comment, agree completely.

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 9 2022 6:10 utc | 532

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 9 2022 6:05 utc | 534

... weird, so I guess it was Russia that has been daily, for the last 8 1/2 years and more

Do you know the score on both sides?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 6:36 utc | 533

The anti Russian trolls are out in force, today! Any little 'victory' to celebrate.
Posted by: CN Creat | Oct 8 2022 17:31 utc | 291

So yesterday was another day of their brutal humilization. The spectacularly quick repair of this bridge is a huge PR triumph of Russia in this case. To minimize this media effect one needs brute force censorshop in all Western media. Sorry guys, employed there, you have no sunday today. Urgent overtime work to be done immediately.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Oct 9 2022 6:38 utc | 534

Seen the bridge deck structure from below. Light weight steel design, highly modular. These bridge segments were designed to be quickly removed and have new prefabricated segments put into place.

Rail side is far heavier but note platform areas around each concrete pier. These must have been designed for easy replacement as well. Crane out the old and insert the new. Tighten the bolts, done.

This event will have been forgotten about in 2 weeks.

Posted by: Badrabbit | Oct 9 2022 6:40 utc | 535

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 0:23 utc | 461

Great post.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 9 2022 6:55 utc | 536

Posted by: Badrabbit | Oct 9 2022 6:40 utc | 538

This event will have been forgotten about in 2 weeks.

Bingo. As will NATO's grand "propaganda victory" ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 6:57 utc | 537

Has anyone been reading the news recently?

You're all stuck on the flaming bridge - meanwhile the world moves on

USEU threats unable to shift OPEC+ decision to cut production sends westies into panick button mode

This has been been « Taken » as a sure sign of sure shift esp with regards to UAE and SA that such are aligning with SCO/BRICS (i.e. Russia) and ‘against’ the ‘west’ – White House quoted undergoing ‘spasms’ to do with gender or other rule based fluidities

And renders even more futile the various price caps bla bla recently employed oil gas whathave you

The article modestly understates ‘One might argue that this tectonic change in geopolitics is more important for the future of the world than the war in Ukraine, although these are certainly not isolated from each other.’

One by one….I’ll not overload you with more news of parallel shifts in Africa, on the grounds that one good piece of news a day keeps the doctors away

Wrench yourselves away from the terrorfixé you have so generously felt about that act of terrorism, cool your feet in the geoplitical gulf stream of the rising multi world order, bathe your souls in the conviction that after all you hearts are in the right place

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Bidens-Options-To-Counter-OPEC-Are-Limited.html

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 9 2022 7:37 utc | 538

Posted by: gobacktoomsk | Oct 8 2022 23:38 utc | 450

Emotional much?

As I said before, Russia chose this path so that the West’s elite issues with racism, supremacism and exceptionalism come to the fore for all to see. Your post is a case in point.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 9 2022 7:48 utc | 539

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 9 2022 7:28 utc | 541

... which neatly draws attention away from the real explanation and culprits.

Really? You need more detail to conclude what would be blindingly obvious whether it was a truck, drone, underwater dwarf sub with sea-to-air torpedo?

NATO, via one of their myriad proxies did it, doesn't matter how it was done.

Exactly like NS1/NS2 - doesn't matter how it was done, it's a reality now.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 7:49 utc | 540

LOL EVERY single day the failure of Russia is evident!

Today Ukraine have massed troops outside of Donbass. How is that possible friggin 8 months into the war?!! Donbas border that should have been secured 8 months ago is wide open!

Kiev amasses troops on Donbass border – official
Ukraine has sent a lot of manpower and hardware to the area, the LPR’s head representative in Moscow has warned

https://swentr.site/russia/564289-ukraine-lugansk-troops-miroshnik/

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 7:52 utc | 541

@Norwegian ###, Toivos #384, Objective Observer #436, S#448, Technophobe #474,

[Sorry for my poor technical Englisch when notAECMA Simplified English]

Pics of the structure from bottom on topwar.ru
No trace of explosion under the structure, but a nice black trace on the upper part of the car tracks still in place (Maxtar pics), consistent with fertilizer, low breakage and strong blast effect.

The piers are made of heavy reinforced concrete, the car decks are "light" metallic structures.
The concrete structures are therefore probably intact and have not been subjected to a temperature rise such that the internal metal reinforcement could expand (need several hundred degrees in the heart of solid reinforced concrete)
The metal decks are light enough to be moved by explosion(thanks S #492: 10 tons of " fertilizer" could help "blowin'everything", remember Toulouse AZF or Beyrouth), without breaking (they are placed on bearings and joints, already explained by a ).
Replacing such a metallic structure needs hours or days, not months. And is not very expensive.

https://en.topwar.ru/203056-opublikovany-kadry-s-posledstvijami-udara-po-krymskomu-mostu.html

Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 9 2022 7:52 utc | 542

@Norwegian ###, Toivos #384, Objective Observer #436, S#448, Technophobe #474,

[Sorry for my poor technical Englisch when notAECMA Simplified English]

Pics of the structure from bottom on topwar.ru
No trace of explosion under the structure, but a nice black trace on the upper part of the car tracks still in place (Maxtar pics), consistent with fertilizer, low breakage and strong blast effect.

The piers are made of heavy reinforced concrete, the car decks are "light" metallic structures.
The concrete structures are therefore probably intact and have not been subjected to a temperature rise such that the internal metal reinforcement could expand (need several hundred degrees in the heart of solid reinforced concrete)
The metal decks are light enough to be moved by explosion(thanks S #492: 10 tons of " fertilizer" could help "blowin'everything", remember Toulouse AZF or Beyrouth), without breaking (they are placed on bearings and joints, already explained by a ).
Replacing such a metallic structure needs hours or days, not months. And is not very expensive.

Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 9 2022 7:54 utc | 543

Can we be certain that the explosives were in the truck? Some sites are claiming the bridge was hit from below, possible drone strike.

Posted by: Jack | Oct 9 2022 7:56 utc | 544

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 2:49 utc | 503

Military strikes against dual-use infrastructure are licit in certain conditions. If the Kerch bridge were only being used for civilian transportation, then Ukraine should not have targeted it. But then neither should have Russia taken out a civilian dam, even though doing so directly served a military aim. You cannot on the one hand argue that it is licit for Russia to take out Ukrainian infrastructure but on the other hand that it is illicit for Ukraine to take out Russian infrastructure.

Posted by: WJ | Oct 9 2022 7:58 utc | 545

@ WJ, 548:

You might have a point here, but it is not relevant: It can be seen as a special ops attack on vital dual use infrastructure in Russia proper.

Which would probably result in taking out all or most vital dual use infrastructure in Ukraine...

Posted by: Rootman | Oct 9 2022 8:04 utc | 546

Like I mentioned before, this truck explosion most probably is an accident. It could be a mechanically bad truck. Lot of goods could blow up, not only ammunition or bombs. Also, no western MSM calls this as an attack, but an explosion without using the word accident. As usual, the "west" is quite happy if something goes wrong with Russia, anything, even a forest fire.

One thing that taught me this SMO in Ukraine not to read the western MSM, even on sports news.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 8:07 utc | 547

Thankfully, at this time of crisis, we have a cool clever man in the White House. Someone who is at the top of their game mentally. The world needs such a leader right now.

Posted by: Jack | Oct 9 2022 8:13 utc | 548

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 8 2022 13:58 utc | 186
There are two possible motives for blowing up the Kerch Bridge:
Military: Nato plans a land attack in Zaporozhye to sever the land connection between Russian mainland and Kherson and Crimea. For maximum effect, the bridge must be disabled at the same time.

False-flag: Prepare the Western public for a nuclear false flag attack in Ukraine. #RussiaIsLosing is trending on Twitter. Putin must be mad and looking for revenge. What will he do? Nuke Ukraine?


Petri, I'd add a third possible motive, and that is to divert attention from the fact and implications of the pipeline explosions.

The West sees two vital battlegrounds, and neither are military or in Ukraine. The first is public opinion in Germany - where personal and national self interest is so strongly aligned with Russia. This self interest must be overcome. The second battleground is public opinion in Russia. Destabilising Russia and thus undermining Putin is the gameplan. Pursuing the plan requires tight control of domestic Western media (achieved) and use of a controlled regime in Ukraine prepared to mindlessly sacrifice lives.

Do the Russians realise the above, and can they counter? That is what we cannot know, but will find out.

Finally, for those who push for Russia to take down the Ukraine electricity grid, remember that Ukraine still controls a number of NPPs, and we now know that NPPs need access to external grid power for continuing cooling even after shutdown.

Posted by: Ross | Oct 9 2022 8:18 utc | 549

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 7:52 utc | 545

... How is that possible friggin 8 months into the war?!!

After 8 months of war all NATO, it's NAZI and islamic terrorist minions can achieve on Russian territory is take out a single segment of a McBridge.

How is that possible?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 9:10 utc | 550

@Paulg | Oct 8 2022 21:14 utc | 407

Everyone assumes that the truck explosion is an attack, but no one had claimed that or proved that, so what if it is an accident?
What if the Ukrainian Post Office created a stamp celebrating the attack almost instantly after it happened? What a coincidence!

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 9:42 utc | 551

Article from John Helmer

- http://johnhelmer.net/russian-army-fires-old-sparky-us-loses-the-electric-war-in-the-ukraine/

About Ukrainian electricity situation - revenge is a dish best served cold, very cold and dark - severe energy problems for the Ukrops in the coming winter

- possibility of a humanitarian catastrophe with the Kiev regime focussing power cuts on the Russian speaking east and south, with the Nationalist West being protected

Posted by: Aslangeo | Oct 9 2022 9:52 utc | 552

55th artillery brigade barracks demolished in Zaporizhe. That will probably put some kind of dent for planned offensive operations.

https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1579040483455963136

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 9:53 utc | 553

I'm still fascinated by Trevor Cadieu. A general so senior that he was about to be named as the new head of the Canadian armed forces but then it came up that he might have raped a fellow cadet at officer school in 1992 so his appointment went on hold and he then resigned from the military and showed up in Ukraine as a 'volunteer'. The woman making the case against him was outraged and wondered how a senior public figure was able to leave the country when there was a major public rape case against him. Did the Canadian authorities give him a deal, we'll let you leave and wait for this to blow over if you go to Ukraine to oversee the Canadian spec forces?

When the case against him progressed he eventually said he would leave Ukraine and return to face the charges. Rumours in Russia say he was apprehended at Azovstal. He hasn't been seen or heard from in months. Did he die? Was he captured? At the same time he was allegedly captured so was Gen Roger Coultier, head of Allied Land Forces South-Eastern Europe, which since 2012 has ominously just been named Allied Land Command, at the time. Now Coultier has had a picture released and subsequently 'retired' at 57 just days ago, the man who replaced him, Darryl A. Williams, is 61. (Why a guy like Coultier would resign at a time when his job gained so much importance and prestige I don't know, it's not like he wasn't ardently anti-Russian, the escalation of the conflict would sit fine with him) No public press conference or anything. You'd think they'd only be too happy to refute Russian 'misinformation'. Given the Russian desire to keep this as low intensity as possible it's reasonable that if both were captured the Russians would keep quiet about it so as not to escalate the situation.

Unlike Cadieu having officially 'resigned' before showing up in Ukraine, Coultier would have been a serving general in the US army at the time.

Posted by: Altai | Oct 9 2022 10:06 utc | 554

@La Bastille | Oct 9 2022 7:52 utc | 546

Thank you, it makes sense.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:22 utc | 555

It is very funny to see people thinking this is a 1942 situation. Ukraine never invaded Russia, there is nowhere near the same rage among normal people as that wich Hitler correctly got. To die for the Luhansk mafya is far less glorious.

Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 9 2022 10:23 utc | 556

@Altai | Oct 9 2022 10:06 utc | 557

Lots of questions there, I agree. It stinks.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:27 utc | 557

The basic error of Russia is failing to escalate and fearing about the reaction of the West.
What the West respects is brutal force.
Only that.
Otherwise, not fearing of Russia, they are going to escalate.

Posted by: marko | Oct 9 2022 10:35 utc | 558

Train from Ukraine to "NATO"
https://t.me/inessas1992/2541

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:35 utc | 559

@marko | Oct 9 2022 10:35 utc | 561

What the West respects is brutal force.
At this point, what "the West" thinks is irrelevant.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:37 utc | 560

Really? You need more detail to conclude what would be blindingly obvious whether it was a truck, drone, underwater dwarf sub with sea-to-air torpedo?

NATO, via one of their myriad proxies did it, doesn't matter how it was done.

Exactly like NS1/NS2 - doesn't matter how it was done, it's a reality now.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 7:49 utc | 544

Here’s a link with an overhead satellite image of the damaged section. It’s lower resolution than optimal but I would say it’s obvious that a large truck bomb on top of the road deck would produce more overtly mechanical damage to the road surface that is mere metres from the presumed origin of the explosion. It is pretty clear that there is blast damage to the side railings and that the deck has been physically displaced from the support columns but, beyond that, only scorch and soot deposition. This is evidence in favour of an explosion beneath the road deck, not on top of it:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/9/crimea-bridge-resumes-traffic-after-blast

From the comments of this very thread ......

Here’s a video of the road deck in daylight. A large explosion has occurred, if it occurred on top of the road deck, there is remarkably little debris or physical impact damage, with a radial pattern, emanating from the approximate origin of the explosion. Granted that this video doesn’t get right up to the area of greatest damage, but still:

https://t.me/denatofication/3667

Here’s that Ukrainian explosive boat-drone found on the Crimean coast on September 22nd:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/09/22/mystery-vessel-may-be-new-ukrainian-attack-drone

Here’s a video (h/t Stonebird) showing the arrival of a boat or semi-submersible, or whatever you prefer, either packed with explosives (cheap, easy, reliable, low tech, more likely) or carrying an exotic sea-to-air weapon to hit bridge that’s immediately overhead (expensive, complex. high tech, less likely). In any case, something on or in the water, not on the road deck:

https://twitter.com/Circonscripti18/status/1578715083068575745

[Down South | Oct 8 2022 17:15 utc | 283] posted links to the Slavyangrad video analysis.This channel won’t open in my browser but the text is the interpretation that I adopt, please read the next of Down South’s comment and try the links:

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/12776
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/12773

It’s one thing to call for supporting evidence but if you haven’t read the comments of the corresponding thread your request is vapid as are the others who keep pushing the truck theory without even acknowledging the far better evidenced explanation.

It’s laughable that you think the method doesn’t matter, especially in a forum whose purpose is to understand these events, when the far more likely truth has already been stated in the open, and different explanations implicate different casts of characters.

Congratulating on supporting the official versions of events over the one with better evidential support. The UK’s underwater sabotage instructors will be very pleased with your efforts =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 9 2022 10:52 utc | 561

Regarding the bridge, of course it looks like a demolition - a large truck of explosives blew up on it - it was a demolition. From the vid my guess is the bomb had shrapnel and incendiary components as well; blow up the bridge, poke holes in the tanker cars, keep everything fiery long enough for leaking fuel to catch.

Regarding why two spans fell; sometimes what happens to one affects the adjacent. For example, a massive explosion folding a span downward, shorten in span, and thereby pull away or spring a supporting upright so another attached span detaches and fall.

Here is an example of a multi-span brige failure. This brige works in compression so every arch works in series from embankment / buttress to embankment / butress. When one arch goes down, all go down. The spans on the Kerch bridge are mostly independent but I expect if a pier suddenly moves 6' or 18" away from an intact span while it is being pulled by a collapsing span, then the intact span can detach and fall; even if the pier snaps back to its prior alignment.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Whatcouldgowrong/comments/xo77n8/wcgw_backhoe_loader_plunged_into_river_while/

BTW, those who create bioweapon labs and locate them as if they were misssile bases surrounding an enemy, probably don't have many limits they respect. Bioweapons tuned to mostly affect a particular population or ethnicity suggests bioweapons tuned to mostly not-affect a particular ethnicity. Can a group release a weapon against a world of innocents but expect the weapon to miss them?

Also, those who blow up infrastructure such as pipelines and bridges seem to have little respect for how hard it is to create those resources that make life better.They seem to be enemies of civilization and goodness.


Posted by: JEN | Oct 9 2022 10:52 utc | 562

Something "bad" happens for Russia and the comment section exceeds the usual 250-300 reply mark, littered with "Lord Hoho"-type trolls and the usual suspects. Interestingly enough, these selected incidents get as much troll-coverage on here as they e.g. get in the German media. Big, big Russian failures, paint the picture of dysfunctional Russian army structures, capabilities and leadership, you name it. And forgetting all the utter failures of the Ukraine, US and NATO forces along the way.

Laughing about the sinking of a 40-year old cruiser? How about looking closer to home and check out the loss of a barely 20-year old 1.2bn dollar carrier-like assault-ship, not at high-seas but in San Diego harbour? Set ablaze by one (as in: ONE) disgruntled Navy Seal and fully incompetent training and fire-fighting. This takes some beating.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/30/navy-sailor-acquitted-fire-warship-bonhomme-richard

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Oct 9 2022 10:58 utc | 563

Aslangeo | Oct 9 2022 9:52 utc | 555

Great link from Helmer, much more significant than all the flybynight pinpricks that everyone here is still crying about

Thanks

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 9 2022 11:00 utc | 564

Posted by: Aslangeo | Oct 9 2022 9:52 utc | 555

Reading the grid maps of the Ukraine, the source says “it is obvious that the real vulnerability, in my estimation, lies in the approximately 88 substations for 330 kV distribution and 33 substations for 220 kV distribution. Note the nodes or junctions. Those are substations connecting the distribution lines which crisscross the Ukraine. These substations contain large power transformers, switchgear, DCS equipment [Distributed Control System] and other power quality and control equipment, spares etc. Widespread coordinated strikes on these substations will quickly overwhelm the Ukrainian ability to effect repairs and re-balance the loads on the generation stations. This will create a cascade effect whereby overloaded power plants, and distribution gear will ‘trip out’ over wide swathes of the country – if the protection between the Ukrainian and EU grids does not operate in time, or there is wild voltage/frequency oscillations there could be large interruptions in the EU countries being fed from Ukrainian sources.”

It seems the issue is whether to prioritize electricity generation itself or the substations interconnecting different voltage systems. Either way will probably be effective, but the EU will probably pay even higher price from the former option. Of course it's always possible that the EU will disconnect/protect itself from events in the Ukrainian grid, therefore dumping it completely.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 11:03 utc | 565

At this point, what "the West" thinks is irrelevant.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:37 utc | 563

---

Repairing the bridge in record time will leave a deeper impression than hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

So, to paraphrase a well-known WWII slogan - Keep calm and fix the bridge!

Posted by: Nobody | Oct 9 2022 11:06 utc | 566

At this point, what "the West" thinks is irrelevant.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:37 utc | 563

---

Repairing the bridge in record time will leave a deeper impression than hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

So, to paraphrase a well-known WWII slogan - Keep calm and fix the bridge!

Posted by: Nobody | Oct 9 2022 11:06 utc | 567

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 9 2022 2:48 utc | 501

Western Christianity seems to be uniquely totalizing and the people professing it prone to genocidal warfare.

Compared to what? The Mongols, the Romans, the Ottoman Empire, the USSR and its various crazy tribute acts such as North Korea? The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere? Tribal warfare in Africa? Those nice people, the Aztecs?

It's simply nonsense to claim European Christianity is uniquely totalising or violent. It's neither, and for most of European history the continent faced a grim struggle for survival against enslavement and domination at the hands of its natural competitors in the Near East and North Africa.

It wasn't the West that liquidated vast numbers of Russians in Stalin's purges and gulags, and it wasn't the West that caused Mao's famines and brutal repressions.

Which is probably precisely why they ended up taking over the whole world while others didn't.

Vastly superior technologies allowed the West to dominate, but I think a lot of the historical grievances are down to the other dirty little secret of colonialism: most of the subject nations were mostly happy to cooperate for a long period of time. It couldn't have worked any other way.

Even in shaking off the West's "rules based" (lol) order, the East isn't looking to shake off Western technologies or Western ideas about how to run an advanced economy, or Western rhetoric about multiculturalism, human rights and sovereignty. Unlike in the Cold War, there's no real ideological conflict over how things should be run on a fundamental level. It's a conflict over who gets to be in charge.

Posted by: ZX | Oct 9 2022 11:08 utc | 568

Arch Bungle

Yeah just add the assainsations, bombings inside Russia, the continous ukrainian succesfull offensive, the siking of Moscow ship, the release of Azov and tons of other scandals by Russia.

Seriously this is major military power and they fail like a failed state military rag tag army.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 11:12 utc | 569

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 11:12 utc | 572

Yeah just add the assainsations, bombings inside Russia


One (1) young lady, is the sum of your "bombings and assassinations? This is all the mighty NATO could achieve in 8 months?
One decrepit old soviet era deathtrap is the best NA/TO/ZI could do?


, the continous ukrainian succesfull offensive

Successful? They're so successful they STILL haven't taken back the four regions annexed by Russia.
All volume, no music. Always "on the offensive" but never actually victorious, is it?

You're really scraping the bottom of the barrel there, Z-anon ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 11:25 utc | 570

ZX | Oct 9 2022 11:08 utc | 571

« Vastly superior technologies allowed the West to dominate, but I think a lot of the historical grievances are down to the other dirty little secret of colonialism: most of the subject nations were mostly happy to cooperate for a long period of time. It couldn't have worked any other way. »

You disregard the reality of colonialism – the idea that ‘subject nations’ are happy to ‘co operate’ in their enslavement is a peculiar idea, as is the updated version that westies are delighted to be degraded by their consumerism and associated obesity and bad health

Colonialism was maintainted the old fashioned way, with overwhelming violence against those who had few means of resistance

Even today – read about recent events in Mali and Burkina Faso

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 9 2022 11:30 utc | 571

How's the Kerch bridge? Liquidated?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 9 2022 11:36 utc | 572

Arch Bungle

No, I am talking about the constant bombing, shelling inside of Russia by ukrainian forces and/or succesful attacks inside Crimea.
If Russia cant even defend the very border of Russia proper you can guess yourself that they wont have any chance against ukrainian forces as have been proven over and over again. And I will point that out for you Bagdad Bob snowflakes and trolls claiming everything goes fine for Russia.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 11:36 utc | 573

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 9 2022 13:36 utc | 574

I agree. It is very difficult to see how Russia can actually lose (in a conventional war). They may not win either, could be a stalemate. But actually lose, that seems to me impossible. But that is what is being proclaimed in the propaganda.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 11:41 utc | 574

At first, we had a lot of "politely concerned" trolls. When it became clear nobody fell for them, we got the "Russia is so weak, it can't retaliate" kind of trolls. The simplest trolls, possibly the ones paid the least, are the downright insulting ones, who use the coarsest language ( a bunch of them lives in the Southfront comment section but now and then they try it in other blogs).
Meanwhile, Russia methodically and quietly keeps dismantling the remaining Ukrainian forces, their little NATO helpers and the whole of Western economy. How big must the catastrophe become before we call it WO III? So are you proud, evil little trolls, if you helped achieve war for a handful of dollars? You are microscopic versions of the big earners, the ones who manipulate our Western politicians, deriding any morals, utterly without conscience - they, however, won't read this blog. But you, little trolls, if people die on the battlefield (or in their houses, because of antother HIMARS shot at Donetsk), or suffer from cold and hunger this winter, are you gloating and cheering?

Posted by: Anthony | Oct 9 2022 11:43 utc | 575

Ah, we've got Debs being stuck to the bottom and constantly being re-time stamped, and renumbered.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 11:43 utc | 576

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 11:41 utc | 577

The problem right now seems that they get a lot of good hits on concentrated Ukraine columns but they rarely press the final attack to finish them off. I think this is understandable given the defensive posture and aim being to repel attacks. There are not enough buildup to push offensives, which would most definitely destroy a much higher proportion of attacks, this may be the thing, come next spring.

Meanwhile Zelensky is operating on a time table and evidently has instructed to make advances regardless of losses.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 11:51 utc | 577

We can expect the Russian response to be a couple of cutting remarks in one of Maria's pressers and perhaps some whining at the UN.

It appears that the Allied response was taking Bakhmut, in it's entirety.

It also appears that loss of real-time Starlink comms, together with real-time knowledge of all units, friend/foe, on the battlefield, hampered Ukie capabilities to the point they are being routed wherever they attack.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 9 2022 11:51 utc | 578

Posted by: Anthony | Oct 9 2022 11:43 utc | 578

Nobody can blame them for not trying. First, the Western scandal papers started explaining why Russia is losing, then came the Kerch Bridge explosion and, indeed, then #RussiaIsLosing started trending.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 9 2022 11:51 utc | 579

Anthony

Russia have lost more tanks already than US in war in Iraq.
Russia have lost more people already than the US did in Iraq.

And note that Russia have not even fought 1 year yet. US fought 10 years in Iraq.

THis is nothing but a terrible failure for Russia pointing that out does not make one a troll but someone that lives in the real world and not a slowflake world where hard facts area denied.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 11:52 utc | 580

"The basic error of Russia is failing to escalate"
Correct.
"and fearing about the reaction of the West"
Imho what Putin feared was the possibility that the Ukrainian man on the street would start to hate Russia if RF hit their country too hard. After all Putin said in his Feb. 24 speech that they were brothers.

"What the West respects is brutal force"
No they're far beyond (or below) that. They're high on hubris which is the intellectual equivalent of cocaine for peons like Elenski.
Our Western "elites" can't see the possibility of being defeated cause they simply can't imagine it.

Posted by: Nanker | Oct 9 2022 11:56 utc | 581

JEN @ Oct 9 2022 10:52 utc | 565

Thanks for the tech analysis. It makes sense. However, I disagree with your closing statement :

...
Also, those who blow up infrastructure such as pipelines and bridges seem to have little respect for how hard it is to create those resources that make life better.They seem to be enemies of civilization and goodness.

I'm pretty sure the targeted resources are specifically selected according to the cost of construction and replacement and the amount of harm caused by their loss. The Baltic Sea pipelines are just the most recent example from a long list: power plant in Venezuela, research centres and power grids in Iran, fuel depots in Lebanon, and so on. I also expect more of these actions to occur in the future, and also closer to home.

Posted by: robin | Oct 9 2022 12:02 utc | 582

The Russian Armed Forces carried out an airstrike on the temporary deployment of foreign mercenaries on the island of Khortytsia, as well as the Bars special forces brigade in the Zaporozhye region, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.

In addition, a warehouse with more than 200 missiles for HIMARS and Hurricanes in the Mykolaiv region was destroyed, it belonged to the 61st Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry reports.
https://t.me/IntelRepublic/6557

In other news, there were reported to be 5000 Polish mercenaries in DPR front.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 12:02 utc | 583

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 10:37 utc | 563

...At this point, what "the West" thinks is irrelevant.

This conflict is the result of a calculated, conscious decision by the West and would be over in a few weeks should there be a shift in political will. What the West thinks is completely relevant.

Posted by: robin | Oct 9 2022 12:05 utc | 584

[I've only read the 200 first comments, will try to read the rest later]

"Possible preposterous preparations"
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾

Petri Krohn wrote:

"There are two possible motives for blowing up the Kerch Bridge:

Military: Nato plans a land attack in Zaporozhye to sever the land connection between Russian mainland and Kherson and Crimea. For maximum effect, the bridge must be disabled at the same time.

False-flag: Prepare the Western public for a nuclear false flag attack in Ukraine. #RussiaIsLosing is trending on Twitter. Putin must be mad and looking for revenge. What will he do? Nuke Ukraine?"

Interesting observations and somewhat plausible from the of strange and insane "western" point of view of the US/NATO etc.

Considering such possibilities it's worth repeating and emphasizing that despite the dramatic footage this was a small. futile, short term, late, and essentially meaningless attack (add any diminutives I forgot).

Others have suggested such things as non-Ukrainian demonstrations of hidden capabilities or more advanced and complex sabotage operations.

They can be right but again there is a very large disconnect between any such and the minimal outcome outside of MSM "exx-plooooo-sion!" front pages (highly comical if not for a war taking place).

Because the more effort or hidden capabilities were used/demonstrated and revealed the worse it gets for "the west" considering what a waste the effort would be for such little reward.

When the PR/propaganda consist of making things up 100% there is no reason for anything to happen to enable such fantasies, and certainly not wasting and/or revealing "hidden powers". If such a thing happened it would be close to a case of spying on "the west" to the benefit of Russia.

Russia doesn't need to do anything but probably wants to again in some form warn the US/EU/NATO against them playing a fictitious war with themselves (and without Russia) on the front pages, because at any time Russia has the ability to intervene and crush whatever narrative is being built, physically if necessary.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 9 2022 12:08 utc | 585

I am not so sure it was the truck. To me it looks as if something struck behind the truck. But that is only from looking at the video. But if it was, it could be a missile.

Posted by: G wiltek | Oct 9 2022 12:13 utc | 586

[Fast "random" reply]

To robin (Oct 9 2022 12:05 utc | 587 ):
you will be correct at the point anything such happens and or becomes likely; it hasn't been for a long time now and unless there are revolutions and/or coups in "the west" this doesn't look like it will change.

I think that's the missing part between the differing point of view between Norwegian and you. Most/many here (me included) have no faith left in whatever-powers-may-be in "the west" and thus we "jump" straight to Norwegian's point of view.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 9 2022 12:15 utc | 587

@583
As if the USA ever gave correct numbers about their losses. In both Iraq wars American losses were hidden systematically; listening to CNN you would have thought there were none at all. And do you care to list the numbers of jets and helicopters the USA lost in Vietnam? And what numbers of "Russian losses" are you going to use? The ones given by The Gost of Kiev fabricators? All of this has nothing to do with cold hard facts. It's just troll talk. Russia mourns every one of its killed soldiers, nothing "snowflake" about that. You trolls on the other hand probably never saw a mutilated body up close, yet you keep pushing for more death and destruction. Now run to your bosses and ask for another assignment, maybe one up to your level.

Posted by: anthony | Oct 9 2022 12:21 utc | 588

What the West thinks is completely relevant.
Posted by: robin | Oct 9 2022 12:05 utc | 587

---

The drama is guiding the actors, not vice-versa. The West isn't thinking, it is reacting to Capital's fear of debt default.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 12:24 utc | 589

John Helmer analyzes the Ukrainian Utility Situation going into winter...
http://johnhelmer.net/russian-army-fires-old-sparky-us-loses-the-electric-war-in-the-ukraine/#more-68992

Reading the grid maps of the Ukraine, the source says “it is obvious that the real vulnerability, in my estimation, lies in the approximately 88 substations for 330 kV distribution and 33 substations for 220 kV distribution. Note the nodes or junctions. Those are substations connecting the distribution lines which crisscross the Ukraine. These substations contain large power transformers, switchgear, DCS equipment [Distributed Control System] and other power quality and control equipment, spares etc. Widespread coordinated strikes on these substations will quickly overwhelm the Ukrainian ability to effect repairs and re-balance the loads on the generation stations. This will create a cascade effect whereby overloaded power plants, and distribution gear will ‘trip out’ over wide swathes of the country

So let’s imagine this. Winter arrives. The power is cut in Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, Pavlovsk, Nikolaev etc. and due to the unavailability of spares, repair crews, respite from attack, or all three, the outlook for the power outage is indefinite. What do people do? They migrate to where there is power, running water, heat etc… For millions this means west. So off they go. And when enough of them get there, bam! the power goes off there too

Shutting off the power in the rump Ukrainian state will do just that to the Ukrainians. If they then start to flee for refuge to Poland and Germany, this will be a disaster unparalleled in recent European history. Just the attendant collapse in telecommunications will make the place a madhouse. You can well imagine the rest. Already there are queues for water in Nikolaev, and who knows where else. How does queueing for water, if there is any, in temperatures of minus-20C to minus-40C sound? This won’t be like the blackouts from US sanctions and attacks in Cuba or Venezuela – there they didn’t have to worry about freezing to death, the pipes bursting, or irreparable damage being done to billions of dollars’ worth of pumping, electrical, and other equipment due to freezing.”

“How many people realize that a sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) circuit breaker, commonly used in electrical substations, requires an electric heating blanket to be functional in sub-zero weather? Most westerners don’t. They are common in high voltage substations which ultimately feed the grid lines with power. In the Ukrainian case, I suspect there is a mixture of those and older style oil circuit breakers (OCB), along with oil-filled large power transformers (LPT), which are essential to electrical distribution. And guess where most of the oil comes from to fill these devices?”

I am of the opinion that the STAVKA is being re-organized to pursue major combined arms operations for the purpose of decimating Ukie war fighting abilities to nil. From the above,it appears to me that Kharkov, Kiev, Denipr, and other Ukrainian cities will empty out, with the population migrating toward the EU, the country side, or Russia. Following that, remaining garrisons will be left to freeze in the ruins.

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 9 2022 12:24 utc | 590

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 11:36 utc | 576

No, I am talking about the constant bombing, shelling inside of Russia by ukrainian forces

You said 8 months. These regions have barely been part of Russia for a week. Lie harder.

and/or succesful attacks inside Crimea.

How successful? What did they achieve? It's been ages since we've heard of new ones.

If Russia cant even defend the very border of Russia proper

Russia has successfully defended the border of Russia proper. What are you talking about?

as have been proven over and over again.

It has not even been proven once.

And I will point that out for you Bagdad Bob snowflake.

You realise you resemble old Bob more than anyone on this forum ?
Crowing daily about a dying, corrupt gangster state of a regime'.

Zelensky is Winning!
Zelensky is Winning!

Zelensky's entire regime' runs on Russian gas ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 12:34 utc | 591

Anthony

I use the numbers Russia themselves use, that number is already bigger thant he american deaths in Iraq.
Good that your bring up Vietnam, this war risk becoming a Vietnam war for Russia.

You are a snowflake because you live in denial- the real world scares you so make up fairytale stories to live by, but the russians that lost their sons, fathers, uncles etc in this stupid war by Russia live in reality and wont accept that hard fact lightly.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 12:34 utc | 592

There was absolutely no reason for an undersea drone ? to make it under the bridge. We know from only a few years ago that Ukrainian ships tried to force the passage into the Azov Sea and we were told Russia stopped it. They also said they guarded against even divers coming in through that entrance from that moment on.

Where is the security footage of the undersea part of that bridge? I noticed only a sea wave come through under the piers of the bridge -at the instant just before the explosion -so I am not sure there even was an undersea drone at all.

Many people including myself saw a flash above, and to the right of the train wagons, well before the major explosion and flash, and this also means that no undersea drone was necessary at all ie initial flash was potentially an incendiary airburst from a airdrone /missile. Question is, if it was , why wasn’t it picked up ? We are told that the bridge is bristling with Anti - Air defences . Would Russia even tell us at this stage that a missile or drone evaded its air radars in the vicinity of this Kerch Bridge? I think not, for “security war -winning “ reasons.

You don’t have a train with fuel wagons , on a bridge , with a truck of fertiliser going past just out of luck , with the truck appearing whole and unexploded after the first flash!

Someone organised a detonator, fuel and explosive to meet all at one time at this one place and it worked. Not only that ,all these three things meeting at one time could just be “plausible deniability” for real demolition explosives placed on the piers of the roadway.

In any case, who cares how it happened , as what we do know is that it did happen, and it took a lot of planning (for redundancy /plausible deniability) and it was sabotage. Pure and simple.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Oct 9 2022 12:35 utc | 593

Arch Bungle

You said 8 months. These regions have barely been part of Russia for a week. Lie harder.
LOL! Ukraine have bombed Russia since spring.

Large fires break out at Russian oil depots
This article is more than 5 months old
Russian state media reports fires at civilian and military depots in Bryansk, which are potentially an act of sabotage by Kyiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/large-fires-break-out-russian-oil-depots-bryansk-near-ukraine-border

How successful? What did they achieve? It's been ages since we've heard of new ones.
LOL Ukraine managed to bomb fighter jets multiple times in Crimea during the summer.
Russia has successfully defended the border of Russia proper. What are you talking about?
LOL they are constantly shelled. Ever heard the attack on Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod? Obviously not.

Friggin slowfake gtfo.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 12:40 utc | 594

From the photo, it looks like Putin has found his off ramp...

Posted by: Noam A. Larkey | Oct 9 2022 12:41 utc | 595

What if the Ukrainian Post Office created a stamp celebrating the attack almost instantly after it happened? What a coincidence!

Norwegian @ 554

Zelly is good at PR, being a TV clown, so why not issue a postage stamp, and claim перемога!

If it was an Ukr attack, there would've been a retaliation, but not in anger. Also, what the use of damaging one road part of the bridge? Even, if it was an 'attack' Ukr (US/UK) couldn't get that done correctly. By the way, the roadbed had fallen down, not blown up, which would've damaged the columns of the railway bridge. Cisterns got burned, but not the railway.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 12:44 utc | 596

Someone organised a detonator, fuel and explosive to meet all at one time at this one place and it worked.
Posted by: Brother Ma | Oct 9 2022 12:35 utc | 596

---

Not so much. Discount low quality ANFO made a weak IED and failed the mission.

The simplest explanation of events is the correct one. Even then stuff goes wrong.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 12:47 utc | 597

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 12:40 utc | 597

That's all? And how many helicopters did they lose in a pinprick strike on a backwater border town?

Wake up Baghdad Bob.

When was the last time they hit anything in Russia Proper?

In the meantime, Russia has been bombing anything important in Ukraine at their leisure.

Anything still standing is by Putin's permission.

LOL Ukraine managed to bomb fighter jets multiple times in Crimea during the summer

A couple of old training jets? And then what - what military advantage did they get?

Have you noticed that major attacks on Crimea have almost stopped?

Russia has successfully defended the border of Russia proper. What are you talking about?

LOL they are constantly shelled. Ever heard the attack on Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod? Obviously not.

When last have these minor little border towns been shelled? What strategic advantage have the NAZIs in Kiev achieved?

On their other hand, when Putin decides to blow something up in Kiev, a few hundred NAZIs and their expensive toys go *poof*.

Try harder, Kiev Bob. We're all laughing at you here.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 12:47 utc | 598

reply to 593

Can someone explain why Russia seems to pull its punches? I know there can be unseen external politics to consider (Africa, etc. look on) but the matter is not clear. In particular, they could wipe out rail and electric distribution in a wide band facing battle lines.

The idea of emptying cities in winter makes sense, along with crushing EU with refugees but will they actually do it? I wonder what other factors are at work in this conflict that we haven't perceived.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 12:54 utc | 599

Supposing there are two sides to this conflict, which side is acting hysterically?

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 9 2022 12:58 utc | 600

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