Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 08, 2022

Ukraine SitRep - Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides

Updated w/r to Starlink below (Oct 9 4:00 utc):

Yesterday saw two significant developments or incidents with regard to the conflict in Ukraine.

The Kerch bridges which connect Crimea with Russia, one for cars and one for trains, were sabotaged. At least one of the two road spans has fallen down while tanker rail cars on the parallel train bridge caught fire.


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CCTV footage shows that a truck exploded while passing the bridge. Here is a video of the damage. One of the two road spans seems to be intact.

As the pillars of the bridge seem unaffected a repair of the broken road span is possible but will take some time. The more sturdy railway bridge may have some superficial fire damage but Russia is one of the few countries that has designated railroad troops specialized in and equipped for railway repairs. The railway traffic is likely to be back within a few day or weeks.

This is a severe handicap for Russian logistics to the frontlines in south Ukraine but not a catastrophe as alternative rail and road routes, as well as ferries, are available. Military logistics is designed to work even under significant constrains. It will find ways to work around the problem.

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Meanwhile the Ukrainian side of the conflict experiences a communication failure that is likely way more consequential.

Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️@AdamKinzinger - 16:26 UTC · Oct 7, 2022

Evidently the Starlink system is down over the front lines of Ukraine. @elonmusk should make a statement about this, or, this should be investigated. This is a national security issue.

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Tore @potifar66 - 21:55 UTC · Oct 7, 2022

Some of the outages led to a “catastrophic” loss of communication in recent weeks, said one senior Ukrainian government official with direct knowledge of the issue.

ft.com: Ukrainian forces report Starlink outages during push against Russia
Some of Elon Musk’s SpaceX devices stopped working when Ukrainian soldiers liberated territory, Kyiv officials say

Update (Oct 9 4:00 utc):

The Financial Times piece, which I can not access, leaves open the possibility that Starlink had willfully disabled the functioning of its system in previously Russian held areas. Via Business Insider:

Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, told FT the issue could be caused by SpaceX representatives working to make sure Russian soldiers couldn't use the technology, as the liberation of some of the areas had not been made public yet at the time of the connectivity issues.

End-Update.

The Russian army is leading globally in its abilities to wage electronic warfare. It can disable ground based radio traffic on any frequency. It has now found ways to also disable ground to satellite connections as used by the Starlink constellation.

At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian military was supplied with thousands of Starlink ground terminals that can connect to the swarms of small Starlink satellites, which were financed by the Pentagon, but managed by Elon Musk's companies. They allowed for communication between Ukrainian ground units as well as for general command and control of larger operations. Without Starlink the Ukrainian command will depend on cable based field telephone, runners and couriers. All of which are extremely vulnerable in an artillery rich environment.

Since 2001 Russia developed the Tirada 2 electromagnetic system which can disable ground to satellite traffic in specific areas.

Russian military in the near future can get into service systems that can disable enemy communication satellites, an informed Interfax interlocutor in the military-industrial complex said 05 January 2018. “One of the projects is Tirada 2. Development work was started back in 2001,” he said. According to him, this complex will be able to disable communication satellites from the ground. “He acts by electronic suppression. This is a multi-million dollar project,” he said. The fact that the Russian Federation is working on the creation of weapons to suppress satellites was announced on November 30 last year by Oleg Achasov, deputy head of the Federal State Budgetary Institution “46 Central Scientific Research Institute”.
...
In November 2018, the FSB called the “threat to national security” a project to cover the globe with high-speed satellite Internet.

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In 2019 an OSCE observer drone took pictures of a Tirada complex in the Donbas region.


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The disablement of the Starlink communication traffic was only a question of time. The traffic had to be analyzed to identify the frequencies and algorithms used by the transmitter and receiver. Software had to be written to implement a matching radio jamming pattern. The hardware of the Tirada system was likely already sufficient to emit the appropriate patterns on the identified frequencies.

As this system has now been proven to be effective in the field it will likely be made available on a wider scale. Russian electronic warfare equipment can already disable all ground radio traffic in specific areas. Soon all frontline communications of the Ukrainian forces will be disabled.

This is catastrophic for Ukrainian operations. Forward observers will no longer be able to correct artillery missions. Platoons and companies at the front will have no way to call for support. Higher command will have no way to coordinate larger operations in real time.

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One Dr. Jay Tharappel has found language likely to comfort the woke U.S. and Ukrainian leaders and functionaries who are concerned about the four Oblast that have joined the Russian Federation.


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"These four provinces are Russian, but they were assigned 'Ukrainian' at birth. Recently the have come out as trans. They are border-fluid regions and their sovereignty is non-binary. They are Russians trapped in a 'Ukrainian' body, and have made their decision to transition. Their pronouns are now DPR/LPR. We Indians as allies support this transition and condemn the transphobic attitudes of westerners."

Something tells me that soon more 'Ukrainian' oblasts will come out and recognize their real being.

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Boris Rozhin, aka Colonel Cassad, reported on Telegraph (machine translation):

Today there was a sortie of foreign mercenaries in the Zaporozhye direction, which included, among other things, American special forces soldiers. They were so self-confident that they decided to carry out reconnaissance in battle with this stellar squadron. However, they did not take into account the presence of our units in this zone, which are able to maintain secrecy on the air, and suffered losses. However, some of these bastards still managed to escape. The presented photos are screenshots of the video from the go-pro camera of one of the dead mercenaries, who literally lost his head. I'll probably post the video tomorrow.

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I have no way to verify those claims but a recent Intercept report stated that there are significant U.S. forces on the ground in Ukraine:

One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency “never completely left.”

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February, several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said. The finding indicates that the president has quietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administration’s decision to conduct a broad program of clandestine operations inside the country.

These will not be the only U.S. casualties in Ukraine. When more such reports come out the issue is likely to explode in Biden's face.

Posted by b on October 8, 2022 at 7:58 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Very fast post. See some Russian Telegram sites calling for revenge, hard to imagine Putin not reacting. Will Kersh end up being the bridge too far for Ukraine.

Posted by: Organic | Oct 8 2022 8:06 utc | 1

Kremlin planners are opening their envelopes labeled "Kerch Bridge Sabotage".

Could be a rough week for infrastructure in Ukraine.

On StarLink jamming ... one the signature is known the beacon is a homing signal.

The 20th National Congress starts in a week. Now they have more to talk about.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 8 2022 8:10 utc | 2

Of 25 most frequently active opinion makers on Flemish and Dutch international relations generally, and the Ukraine crisis specifically, the most candid one, an Antwerp University professor, has communicated complot theories rather that facts that are supported by sources. I wrote a piece on the issue, see

https://geopolitiekincontext.wordpress.com/2022/10/07/opiniemakers-over-de-oekraine-crisis-en-de-realiteit-over-de-hybride-oorlog-tegen-rusland/

The professor suggests that the Russians destroyed their own pipelines, reports that "a nuclear train" was spotted on its way to the Ukrainian border, and that the Russians make nuclear threats by dispatching their Belgorod attack submarine. Most importantly, the professor accuses the Russians of making nuclear threats now that they are "cornered in the war", an accusation he does not substantiate by the Russian nuclear doctrine that precludes any first use.

In the current affairs programme 'Terzake' on Flemish public television channel VRT yesterday, the presenter was visibly concerned about a pan-European nuclear war. It apparently did not occur to her that all these messages are pure American and British propaganda. Academic opinion makers, who undoubtedly know the truth but who also propagate the mainstream narrative, bear great responsibility.

The first commenter compared the professor's media performance with the shame Germans felt of their parents' and grandparents' turning a blind eye to the Nazi persecution. "They would have admired them, had they been braver"...

Posted by: Paul-Robert | Oct 8 2022 8:11 utc | 3

The road bridge is evidently modular. All they have to do is hoist a new module into place. Such an attack was hardly unexpected, and I expect they have spare modules ready to go.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 8 2022 8:12 utc | 4

pleasantly surprised as I'd never thought I'd see /pol/ referenced here of all places...
wonder what /chug/ will make of thus

Posted by: leaf | Oct 8 2022 8:14 utc | 5

great, fast reporting. I think that initial reports indicate that it was a suicide truck bomb.
one aspect of Putin's reticence has been the desire to keep the global south in particular on board. they will now surely agree that this provocation justifies a response especially if possible Islamic extremists are involved.
due to domestic political pressure Putin has no choice to act on this especially so soon after the attacks on NS1 and NS2

Posted by: Simon | Oct 8 2022 8:17 utc | 6

The revenge thing, the blood feud, among a couple of other older civx, is a great Anglo-Saxon thing ... introduced originally for them, I think, in Beowulf.

Thank you B

It's not about Ukraine ... it's about NATO

on a whole 'nother level it's about decency, dignity and honor vs. barbarism. Blood thirsty savagery. Don't expect Russia to go there, and if you force them to, all will regret the ensuring Ragnarok ... how else do I say it. Was it Mark Twain, B, who said, "Never argue with stupid, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience?

We, none of us, can afford to lose our heads now. We, none of us, can allow ourselves to be taken by hysteria. Fear is okay. We can turn that into courage. We must have dignity. we can and will win this, for all of us. If you stand up straight, your heart is in front of your head. Let it guide you. Follow your heart and don't believe the lies.

Posted by: Jimmy Flies By | Oct 8 2022 8:22 utc | 7

What was used to hit the bridge?
Where was it fired from?
Are there American fingerprints on this strike?

Posted by: Ozcol | Oct 8 2022 8:24 utc | 8

The bridge construction looks fairly modular so I would be surprised if there aren't already spare/unused spans from the original construction.
Still this is a very dangerous game Ukraine is now playing. These last three major terrorist incidents (Dugina, NS 1/2 and now this) are not exactly paralyzing but are clearly provocations. The Russians will be well aware they are being goaded into further public actions. But I can't see much of the retaliation necessarily being all that public

I can't wait for Musks reply to AdamKinzinger, hopefully he points out his rooting of a Chinese spy.

Posted by: MrV | Oct 8 2022 8:25 utc | 9

Thank you for the very fast follow up with essential update. The most significant aspect of this is not the damage, but the response and the consequences for the maniacs.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:25 utc | 10

The Kerch bridge attack is politically useful as it will rally even more the Russians around Putin. It is clear the threat to Crimea, and Russia, is existential.

Difficult to accuse the Ukies of terrorism, as it's clearly a dual use infrastructure. One can only say well done. It's incredible the surveillance and security of the bridge was not more stringent, filtering the traffic at both ends. Strelkov predicted the bridge attack, and I was also convinced it was only a matter of time. Only good news is that it was a classic truck bomb ; a missile or drone attack would have been way more worrying.

Regarding the communication issue, it's good news but I wouldn't be categorical as to the future. Ukies and NATO may find ways around it. The big question is how much Ukie operation depend on available high-speed Internet. It's perhaps not coincidental that the Ukie offensives are slowing down - although it may be due to more mundane operational reasons (pausing).

Next four weeks will tell us. Either new offensives are started with the same success, and the Ukies conquer all the right bank of the Dniepr, or they're bogged down, in which case Russian prospects would be relatively good with the onset of winter.

I am rather skeptical against theories predicting a miraculous, massive Russian assault or attack. This is all well and good but realistically I would be content if the front lines stabilized, while Europeans start to freeze. This would already be a small success.

Posted by: Micron | Oct 8 2022 8:29 utc | 11

@Ozcol | Oct 8 2022 8:24 utc | 8

What was used to hit the bridge?

Suicide truck with explosives

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:29 utc | 12

Thanks for this post

I mean especially for this '"These four provinces are Russian, but they were assigned 'Ukrainian' at birth, non binary sovereignty, border fluid .....

To see this written down is a revelation - the truth can no better be expressed - who'd have thought that the ynaks were making up language to describe the war when they all they thought to talk about was their children

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 8 2022 8:31 utc | 13

Looks like it's time to repost this old classic:

LINK TO CIA WEBSITE - REPORT RESISTANCE FACTORS IN UKRAINE

65 years of conscious planning by the US.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 8:32 utc | 14

@Micron | Oct 8 2022 8:29 utc | 11

The Kerch bridge attack is politically useful as it will rally even more the Russians around Putin. It is clear the threat to Crimea, and Russia, is existential.
So you are trying to say the response will be what the US has been wanting. It will fail.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:33 utc | 15

Yes i know the facts and the real power of russia but yet these latest events make me nervous and it is more and more difficult to be patient.

Posted by: Vesa | Oct 8 2022 8:34 utc | 16

Wyatt R. often has a wry sense of humor, check out his remark about the terrorist attack against the Kerch bridge


Wyatt Reed @wyattreed13
https://twitter.com/wyattreed13/status/1578654957321957376

The Kiev regime has already claimed credit for this terrorist attack but the Western press wants you to think the bridge in Crimea just spontaneously combusted of its own volition.

from the NY Times: Breaking News: A fire erupted on the sole bridge linking Crimea to Russia, imperiling a primary supply route for Russian troops in Ukraine.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 8 2022 8:36 utc | 17

@9 MrV

Still this is a very dangerous game Ukraine is now playing.

So what is Russia going to to do? Invade Ukraine with 200k troops and annex territory?

Ukraine is at war with Russia. Destroying and degrading your opponents military assets, supply lines and critical infrastructure is pretty much the definition of war.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 8:39 utc | 18

Zelensky's office claim to be responsible for a terrorist act.

https://t.me/grahamwphillips/569
A series of statements from the Ukrainian side, and Zelensky's office, clearly indicate they are claiming credit for today's explosion on the Crimean Bridge.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:49 utc | 19

re Ozcol | Oct 8 2022 8:24 utc | 8
"Are there American fingerprints on this strike?"


Is the pope a catholic?
Does the bear shit in the woods?


Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 8 2022 8:50 utc | 20

I'll eat a shoe in front of everyone if this was a truck bomb, I really, really doubt Ukrainians and western mercenaries are successfully recruiting suicide bombers middle east style. This was a strike by either a very advanced missile or drone guided by UK/USA surveillance planes, very much like the Moskva. Like the Moskva the West's message is clear you're pwnd, totally exposed, in the Black Sea, quit while can.

RF MoD can't admit publicly that the world's most defended bridge with Russia's most advanced anti-missile system failed so easily on the first try. Bridge was built fast of ticky-tacky which I guess is a good thing as it can be repaired quickly, but now that the psychological barrier is broken and the NATO gauntlet thrown they can just keep hitting it over and over, the Kerch bridge is finished just like the Antonivskyi Bridge. The Soviets would have dug a tunnel, with modern boring machines it probably would have taken the same amount of time. Alas, the Soviets aren't around.

Seems the plan is to cut RF forces in half btwn the Dniper and Melitopol. Not starting to look far fetched anymore. Seems Paul Craig's Roberts alarmist warnings to RF back in February were correct.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 8 2022 8:53 utc | 21

It really looks like the end is near for Ukraine (Note: I added the [unless] part)

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/11219
⚡️Zelensky's Presidential advisor Arestovich has just threatened NATO with the scenario of 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers defecting to Russia [unless] the west continues paying Zelensky billions of dollars!


Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:54 utc | 22

This was to be expected, isn't this the whole point of the Land Bridge to Crimea?

Posted by: Julian | Oct 8 2022 8:55 utc | 23

It is long past time for Russia to quit playing games. Time to knock all Ukrainian infrastructure out of commission everywhere. This asymmetric fighting with Russia tying it's own hands behind its back while the entire west goes all-in with every war crime in the book does not work.

I believe Russia has been stalling until winter, under the mistaken belief that it would break European resolve. That will not likely happen, though. Europeans are a fanatic people, who will gladly sacrifice their own material interests for misguided abstract moral imperatives.

Posted by: FVK | Oct 8 2022 8:56 utc | 24

@LightYearsFromHome | Oct 8 2022 8:53 utc | 21

I think you need to prepare your meal.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:58 utc | 25

@Tom 18
Well given there were at least three main opportunities to resolve the East/West political divide in Ukraine with some sort of amicable agreement. In the early days this didn't require the Russians at all.
(Once in 2014 when Yanukovych agreed to early elections/unity government, and then later with the Minsk I and II agreements)

I think the future of Ukraine is realistically going to be a state of permanent wreckage.
GDP down ~40% and surviving on handouts from Western government that themselves have to print the money to do so.
How long can this be sustained?
Whether it can commit the odd act against Russia is beside the point.

Posted by: MrV | Oct 8 2022 8:58 utc | 26

Tom UK @ 18

Didn't Russia already start it's SMO with over 100,000 troops and gain control of large swathes of land?

Why do you act as if they aren't capable of bringing in more troops and taking more land?

Do you really think Russia can't up the intensity of its operation?

Hasn't Russia been systematically demilitarizing Ukraine for months and the only thing keeping it's military afloat is billions of dollars of support from EU/UK/US?

What's your point?

LightYearsFromHome @ 21

Looks like a truck exploding but I can't slow the video down enough to tell.
VIDEO OF EXPLOSION

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:00 utc | 27

Having seemingly escaped so far, logically military command sites in Kiev may now be targets, especially any with NATO advisors or CIA operatives, the SBU HQ springs to mind. But this may put at risk Russian agents. So the response chosen will be interesting, as will the timing.

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 8 2022 9:02 utc | 28

michaelj72 @ 29

It will certainly make Medvedev look like a blowhard if Russia does nothing in response, but I don't think Russia cares about Medvedev's individual reputation and will respond as it deems necessary.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:07 utc | 29

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 8 2022 8:53 utc | 21


I'll eat a shoe in front of everyone if this was a truck bomb,

We'll know soon if there are more of these within the next few weeks. If not, better add Tabasco ...


I really, really doubt Ukrainians and western mercenaries are successfully recruiting suicide bombers middle east style.

Isis recruits have been known to be fighting in Ukraine.

Always remember Al Qaida was a CIA nurtured outfit ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 8 2022 9:07 utc | 30

In this conflict, Russia is a rational actor, while Ukraine and the combined West is an irrational actor.
One irrational, suicidal actor can always bring more damage.

The problem with Russia is underestimating the enemy. Th Russian ruling elite cannot still believe and is not aware that The West is ready for ANYTHING. There are limits, there is no moral. The West is fanatical and mad.

Posted by: marko | Oct 8 2022 9:10 utc | 31

Interesting that the complaints about Starlink's performance only surfaced after Musk enraged Kiev with his Twitter poll.

Posted by: Pheasant | Oct 8 2022 9:11 utc | 32

@27 Objective Observer

People saying that ‘Ukraine is playing a dangerous game’ as if things could get much worse are missing the point. Ukraine is fighting a war for its very existence and has been fighting this war since 24 Feb, so from their perspective they have much to gain and nothing to lose by striking at targets whenever they can.

Russia hasn’t demilitarised anything, that much is patently obvious, and if you think they have then I have a bridge in Crimea to sell you. Well, I did until this morning.


Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 9:13 utc | 33

Arch Bungle @ 30

Al Qaeda literally translates as "the database" which was the CIA list of Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:15 utc | 34

Mercs and military advisers in, Starlink out. Leading from behind, so much harder.

Posted by: js | Oct 8 2022 9:15 utc | 35

There seems to be no dispute over who is responsible (but there could be "sponsors" I guess):

https://t.me/intelslava/38600

🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️The Security Service of Ukraine is behind the blowing up of the Crimean bridge, Ukrayinska Pravda reports, citing a law enforcement source.

PS: A post is stuck in the future again: (michaelj72 | Oct 8 2022 14:00 utc ) It will remain so for several hours unless deleted.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 9:15 utc | 36

I don't see what the fuss is all about?
Special operation to re-route traffic in the occupied territories has surely beenn planned for mmonths.

I don't know what is the point. But I haven't been to elite russian military academies or
fought in chechnya. Not even a lifelong military man. But Ptin will know what to do, that should be obvious by now.

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 8 2022 9:18 utc | 37

Posted by: MrV | Oct 8 2022 8:25 utc | 9
Re: Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 8 2022 8:36 utc | 17
Re: Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:49 utc | 19

It is NOT a "terrorist" attack.

They have been invaded. Responding and attacking your opponent's infrastructure is obviously what happens in a war. That's why it's called a War!

All is fair in Love & War.

Posted by: Julian | Oct 8 2022 9:19 utc | 38

I think Russia's response to the bridge will be just more determination to conclusively win the war.
Provocations are ment to provoke a reaction. Make the provoked act in ways he wouldn't have done otherwise.
Probably everybody knows the classic example from WOII. When Germany was bombing British airfields, and other air defense related infrastructure. The Brits carried out a provocative bombing raid of Berlin City. This provoked the Germans to shift part of their bombers from targeting military air defense related targets to targeting residential areas in cities.
Which took off some of the pressure on the air defense assets giving them just enough breathing room to maintain enough effectiveness to defend the UK. Had the Germans not done that they might have succeeded in destroying the British air defenses.

Posted by: GoverntheMente | Oct 8 2022 9:22 utc | 39

Tom UK @ 33

Patently obvious that the Ukrainian army has not been getting tons of equipment destroyed for months?

Whenever someone uses 'patently obvious' in an argument, you can almost always be assured that it is not.

Patently absurd.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:23 utc | 40

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:15 utc | 34

So it is said ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 8 2022 9:25 utc | 41

Perhaps this was the ‘ False flag ‘ designed to get Moscow to react by using tactical Nuclear weapons? If so it was extremely crude. Typical bonehead western thinking.
I have no doubt Moscow was well aware that there would be a concerted effort on the Kerch Staight Bridge.
These actions are those of desperation from the west.
In the U.S.A. bridges fall down on a regular basis so in itself the collapse of the bridge isn’t a disaster. More of an inconvenience, especially as most of the heavy military traffic is supplied by rail.
It will be interesting to see Russia’s response. I have no idea what it will be however unlike the west, I suspect it will be subtle but very painful.

Posted by: Beibdnn. | Oct 8 2022 9:26 utc | 42

It was either that truck or a boat that was passing under the bridge at the same time. Curious and really bad, it seems someone dropped the ball to detect it.

Posted by: Krištof | Oct 8 2022 9:31 utc | 43

@Beibdnn. | Oct 8 2022 9:26 utc | 42

It is not a false flag since Ukraine is claiming responsibility for the attack. It is however a clear provocation, possibly with the intention to cause the reaction you mention.

These actions are those of desperation from the west.

Indeed, that I what I read from the whole incident.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 9:31 utc | 44

@Beibdnn. | Oct 8 2022 9:26 utc | 42

It is not a false flag since Ukraine is claiming responsibility for the attack. It is however a clear provocation, possibly with the intention to cause the reaction you mention.

These actions are those of desperation from the west.

Indeed, that I what I read from the whole incident.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 9:31 utc | 45

Arch Bungle @ 41

Fair enough...sourced but not definitely proven.

SOURCE

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:31 utc | 46

This is interesting as well.


"In the Zaporozhie region, the Ukrainian military command is reinforcing positions apparently preparing for large-scaled offensive. The attacks are expected to come in the directions Melitopol and Berdyansk. Offensive operations could be carried out in the area of the Zaporozhie NPP as well. The Ukrainian maneuvres could be also aimed at distraction of the Russian military from other regions."

I also recall a Russian fighter jet buzzing a US warship a few years back using electronic jamming equipment that caused the US warships electronics to fail.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 8 2022 9:32 utc | 47

Ukraine calling the bluff of Russia almost every day now:

In july: Russia's Medvedev: Attack on Crimea will ignite 'Judgement Day' response
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/medvedev-wests-refusal-recognise-crimea-russian-is-threat-2022-07-17/

Well Medvedev where are the response?

Just a matter of time before Ukraine invade Russia itself and topple Putin if this is terrible defense Russia is only able to put up with.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 8 2022 9:32 utc | 48

Tom @33

Ukraine as existed with the Lenin + Khrushchev borders is already gone, and really as a result of the illegitimate way power was transferred in 2014. The sooner Kiev recognizes this the better for its own future as a nation and its people.
The Zelensky idea of retaking Crimea by force is to use your phraseology 'patently obvious' nonsense.

Posted by: MrV | Oct 8 2022 9:34 utc | 49

RWA tweets:

Unconfirmed, but reportedly this is the same truck; passed a checkpoint; they looked inside, but didn't find anything. A few minutes later it blew up while driving

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1578678909566332928

Posted by: too scents | Oct 8 2022 9:38 utc | 50

Zanon @ 48

A truck bombing of a bridge as precursor to the toppling of the current Russian government and the occupation of Moscow by the Ukrainian military?

Another absurdity.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:48 utc | 51

The Estonian Foreign Minister welcomed the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge.

https://t.me/sputnik/14889
"Estonia, of course, welcomes this and congratulates the Ukrainian special forces units, which are probably behind this operation," the minister said.

This is not just between Ukraine & Russia, as we all know.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 9:48 utc | 52

@39 slightly off topic but what you wrote about WWII is pretty nonsense, look on the timeline and when the germans lost the battle over britain and when UK started carpet bombing german cities.
Putin doesn't need any provocations to escalate more, it was a dumb and unnecessary action from Zelensky, because the ordinary people in Ukraine will suffer

Posted by: disorder | Oct 8 2022 9:48 utc | 53

Please note that it took the "Ukrainians" (and their sponsors) half a year to do this when it could have been truly useful for them back in March.

They would have done this earlier if they could but they couldn't. This tells us all something very clear, definitive, and factual about their collective lack of capabilities.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 8 2022 9:49 utc | 54

Fortunately Illinois Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger isn't running for re-election in Nov. 2022, will be gone for good in late Jan. 2023 (in part due to redistricting by Democrats). Adam's tweet above indicates he's upset about Starlink, says it's national security issue. Whatever, Kinzinger is a Deep State warmonger as bad as McCain, loves Mideast terrorists. I hope Starlink goes out of business permanently. Billionaires seem to like partnering with the Pentagon.

Posted by: susan mullen | Oct 8 2022 9:50 utc | 55

No need to quote little Medvedev. He is acting, playing bad cop role, to release the anger of Russians who see the full scale of incompetence in their government and general staff. But he is as impotent as Shoigu and the rest of the generals.
You can also imagine now how many traitors are in FSB. The don't search for explosives in cars and trains on a bridge they know is on a very public hit list for months? A few days ago there was a single drone attack at a military airfield near Moscow, yesterday a large fuel storage in Donetsk was hit by himars, Belgorod by artillery.

Posted by: rk | Oct 8 2022 9:53 utc | 56

Objective Observer

Yes the attack of this bridge just points to another terrible defense of Russia meaning if Ukraine can penetrate and get away with this, they can get away with anything. Past 6 months Ukraine have managed more offensives than Russia both in Ukraine and in Russia, obviously can take it to Moscow if Russia is this bad.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 8 2022 10:03 utc | 57

Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 8:29 utc | 12

"Suicide truck with explosives"

Suicide, well I thought so from watching the short video. Did they employ a specialist from al-Nusra for that or was it carried out by a Ukroid?
As for the explosives, it looked to me like a lot of fuel was ignited too? Much more than the truck would have in its tank...

---

The Starlink stuff... Alright, so the Russians managed to do that. But what are they going to USE it FOR, this temporary battlefield advantage? I'm afraid they won't use it for anything, but will doze right off again.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Oct 8 2022 10:05 utc | 58

@Scotch Bingeington | Oct 8 2022 10:05 utc | 58

As for the explosives, it looked to me like a lot of fuel was ignited too? Much more than the truck would have in its tank...
It was timed to explode when the fuel train passed the same spot next to it. The idea was obviously to take out both bridges, but failed to do so,

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 10:11 utc | 59


Tom K, @33, You say, "Ukraine is fighting a war for its very existence and has been fighting this war since 24 Feb." Ukraine ceased to "exist" 30 years ago in 1991 when it agreed to accept endless billions of US taxpayer "help." When you accept US "help," including running your "elections," or violently overthrowing your elected government, your country ceases to exist, will be plundered to its last penny, will cause innocent citizens more misery than they ever imagined. US taxpayers, tens of millions of whom live in poverty, pay for all of this, are obviously slaves to the US military dictatorship bleeding us to death, allowing us zero "sovereignty" and "territorial integrity." Ukraine has no "homeland," it's a place to bleed US taxpayers. If you want to get mad about something, get mad at the criminal US.

Posted by: susan mullen | Oct 8 2022 10:11 utc | 60

I copied these lines from Colonelcassad's Telegram. I think the questions raised are pertinent:

“1. The fact is that at the entrance to the Crimean bridge there are stationary inspection and inspection radio systems ST-6035 of the Departmental Security Department of the Ministry of Transport Russia, which shines through all vehicles.

2. The complex is equipped with devices that detect drugs, explosives and chemicals even 60 days after the last contact with them. The capabilities of the complex allow you to see the density of the metal, its infrared spectrum and many other parameters.”

In this regard, according to the interlocutor of RT, there are questions about the shift on duty, which missed the truck and the operation of the equipment."

Posted by: Steve | Oct 8 2022 10:11 utc | 61

@40 Objective Observer

You said ‘demilitarised’ not ‘…getting tons of equipment destroyed’.

Ukraine, like Russia, has lost tons of equipment in seven months of conflict, but Ukraine has not been demilitarised. Ukrainian forces are now larger, better equipped and probably better trained than they were seven months ago. Remilitarised would be a better description.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:14 utc | 62

I rather doubt it was a suicide bomb. The driver may have died, but if he did, it is unlikely to have been voluntary. If I were a jihadi, I'd have trouble believing that dying on behalf of hyper-christian UkroNazis would get me welcomed by the 72 virgins in Paradise, because that is what they believe. It's completely the wrong doctrine. doesn't work at all. There may be some jihadis fighting for Ukraine, but that would be as mercenaries, to make a living, not a dying.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 8 2022 10:15 utc | 63

@laguerre | Oct 8 2022 10:15 utc | 63

I rather doubt it was a suicide bomb. The driver may have died, but if he did, it is unlikely to have been voluntary.
Valid argument, you may be right.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 10:18 utc | 64

Tom UK @ 62

That is what I said. Demilitarized means military equipment being destroyed. Billions of $ from West means remilitarization.

Why did I even post a response to you? Poor judgment on my part. Will not happen again.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 10:19 utc | 65

The location chosen for the site of the damage is interesting. It is close to land at the Russian end. Why there? Explosives delivered by land, maybe hard access to float a repair section in?

Whilst there are now photos of a truck that didn't make it across, from the clean breaks and two different sites on the downed carriageway, with a standing section between them, it looks likely that demolition charges were used.

Given that there are now other westward land routes via Mariupol into Crimea this is probably more an inconvenience rather than a disaster. The ferry is back in operation and the Russians conveniently moved those extra 6 big landing craft into the Black Sea were they to be needed.

From a source on Crimea this morning there has been zero impact on the locals the so far, no price rises etc. Russian news has not reported what is on Telegram yet.

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 8 2022 10:19 utc | 66

@60 susan mullen

In 1991, the people of Ukraine voted for independence. All regions voted for independence, including Crimea. No region voted to be part of Russia.

The End.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:20 utc | 67

Ukrainian forces are now larger, better equipped and probably better trained than they were seven months ago.
Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:14 utc | 62

---

The cancer growing in Ukraine is wholly foreign.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 8 2022 10:20 utc | 68

The other question in my mind is: how much is the Kerch bridge really used? The photos don't show a lot of vehicles on the bridge, and it is really a long way round to get anywhere you want to go. It's a necessary stand-by, but the isthmus gives much better access, as long as it is in Russian hands, evidently.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 8 2022 10:23 utc | 69

laguerre @ 63, Norwegian @ 64

Wouldn't have to be a jihadi. Just someone willing to die for a cause. Think kamikaze pilots. Think Buddhist monk in Vietnam. Doesn't rule out an involuntary sacrifice by an unknowing trucker, though

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 10:24 utc | 70

What is this? US sabotage to be blamed on Russia?

https://t.me/intelslava/38601
Germany's infrastructure continues to be beaten: this morning, long-distance rail traffic in northern Germany was completely suspended. Two communication cables (GSM-R) were cut in two different places.

According to Spiegel, security agencies are talking about the first signs of possible sabotage.


Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 10:25 utc | 71

@68 too scents

The cancer growing in Ukraine is wholly foreign.

No, what Russia has nurtured and grown is Ukrainian nationalism. Russia has created an enemy on its borders through stupidity, incompetence and a blinkered view of history.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:27 utc | 72

Objective Observer@ 29

It will certainly make Medvedev look like a blowhard if Russia does nothing in response, but I don't think Russia cares about Medvedev's individual reputation and will respond as it deems necessary.

At the start I got caught up in Medvedev’s swagger and thought soon we’d see him riding atop a tank like Patton all the way to Berlin, now Medvedev’s starting to remind me of Bagdad Bob, hate to say it. Does modern Russia have any connections to 1709, 1812, 1941, seems impossible that 30ys of McDonalds and Ikea have wiped out a 1000 ys of competence and fortitude.

Arch Bungle @ 30

Isis recruits have been known to be fighting in Ukraine. Always remember Al Qaida was a CIA nurtured outfit
.
And the rewards? 72 blond slavic porn stars and a vibrating bed?

marko @ 31

The problem with Russia is underestimating the enemy.

Apparently we all are. Seems The Plan form the beginning, at least Plan B if the sanctions failed, was to go all in militarily AFU and NATO, incremental for public consumption but relentless and uncompromising all the way to Crimea. That’s why the Baltics and Poles are so barking rabid. They smell blood and they’ve been promised by the real power, USA and UK, that a defeated Russia will be cut up and fed to them in large meaty chunks, resources and land.

After a Russian defeat NATO power will be entirely shifted eastwards toward China, Poland and Ukraine will become the economic and political anchors of this restructuring, the industry and wealth of a duplicitous Germany will be given to Poland and the political center expressed by an always annoying and recalcitrant France will be transferred to Ukraine. The Baltics yappers will reap the prosperity of the post-WW2 Italian Miracle as they fatten up on the RF spoils. Russia and its people will be turned into the Nigeria of Eurasia.

That does explain the maddening dog pack fox hunt barking from slavic vassals.

Grim thoughts on the roller coaster today.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 8 2022 10:30 utc | 73

@Norwegian | Oct 8 2022 10:25 utc | 71

No, Germans are surely on the same page. The Greens that is. Their task was clear years ago, to destroy the economy. They will do it themselves to blame Russia or China or Martians. No one can verify anything, then can turn a switch and say Putin disabled the power plant using his evil mental powers.

Posted by: rk | Oct 8 2022 10:30 utc | 74

Re US special forces in Ukraine:’ When more such reports come out the issue is likely to explode in Biden's face.’
Question is, ‘will the reports come out before the Mid-term elections?’ Now only 31 days away.

Posted by: Extra | Oct 8 2022 10:31 utc | 75

The Crimean Bridge, which is more than a bridge,it was a symbol of Russia’s ability to overcome problems quickly and completely. Now this strike is being seen as another Ukie victory all over the world. Also doing it on Putin’s birthday is extra humiliation added. No doubt, this another RU fail is horrible in public opinion worldwide. And this time unlike with the Moskva cruiser there is full video evidence available on the internet world-wide.Every Russian,pro-Russian,and especially every anti-Russian site is showing the pictures and videos of the explosion and the bridge burning in the night sky. It’s devastating PR for Russia and great PR for UA. And it counts.

Posted by: Josef Schweik | Oct 8 2022 10:32 utc | 76

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:27 utc | 72

I'll get my hands dirty handling a turd like you, in March 1991 80% of Ukrainians voted to stay in the USSR.

https://www.politforums.net/ukraine/1647602849.html?ysclid=l8zrx4l9jk559451631

UK, the cancer of the world, no wonder it forms part of your moniker, he who laughs last... that stinky island will have its day of reckoning, the world knows who you are, and the score is being kept. I'm flushing now, I don't think I'll see you later.

Posted by: Paco | Oct 8 2022 10:35 utc | 77

@69 laguerre

It is unwise to lose a key military supply line during a war, and especially unwise to have such loss broadcast for the world to see.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:36 utc | 78

Al Qaeda literally translates as "the database" which was the CIA list of Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 9:15 utc | 34

WHAT??

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 8 2022 10:37 utc | 79

Russia's "response" should be to continue winning.

After, as before, they should especially target the foreign forces that cynically exploit Ukraine.

Posted by: dfg | Oct 8 2022 10:37 utc | 80

@Paco | Oct 8 2022 10:35 utc | 77

tomuk is a troll but apparently the blog owner likes to have his comments. He quickly banned pro-Russian users though. Honeypot?

Posted by: rk | Oct 8 2022 10:38 utc | 81

I think Moscow has a problem with the "spectacle" side of this war as the real action seems to be going on behind the scenes on the satellite and comms front and of course taking precaitions against a nuke attck.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 8 2022 10:40 utc | 82

@77 Paco

And in December 1991, Ukrainians voted for independence. At that point the USSR pretty much ceased to exist.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 8 2022 10:42 utc | 83

Test

Posted by: b | Oct 8 2022 10:44 utc | 84

test 2

Posted by: b | Oct 8 2022 10:46 utc | 85

Putin's dilly-dallying is costing lives and the RF.
PaulCraigRobert was right all along.

Posted by: Hannibal | Oct 8 2022 10:46 utc | 86

Josef Schweik @ 76

This was the failure of one inspector who barely took the time to look in the truck. Also indicates a failure to have a better system of inspections. I suspect that once the bridge is repaired eastbound traffic will be more thoroughly checked.


Paco @ 77

You might also remember that Crimes voted to be independent and that it was annexed by Ukraine. Of course, it's ok for Ukraine to annex Crimea. Furthermore, there are reputable polls pre2014 that clearly show that Crimeans favored Russia and saw themselves as Russian at the same time they wanted to be independent. That changed in 2014 when they voted to become part of Russia.

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 10:47 utc | 87

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army.
either they roll back there engagement massively until Jan. or they get what they feared.

Posted by: Kerwas | Oct 8 2022 10:48 utc | 88

Thanks for the detailed reports, b. I noticed that one of the Twitter accounts you linked to, Rob Lee @RALee85, posted that photo with the comment that “But you would expect to see more damage to the road if it was a large truck bomb. The breaks in the road look too clear. Not sure this is true. I'll wait for experts to chime in.” “*too clean” in Tweet #2

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578628068675321856

German rail infrastructure was also hit, I discovered in a reply Tweet on one of those posts.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1578685708759228416

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 8 2022 11:00 utc | 89

Tharappel's infantile anti-transgender distraction regarding the secession of the oblasts to the Russian Federation, ranks in absurdity and irrelevance with his brilliant prediction of Chinese emigration from PRC to Africa. Are more clowns really needed at this time?

Posted by: Paul McGrory | Oct 8 2022 11:02 utc | 90

I don't usually ascribe any unfortunate events which happen to the Russian operation as "fuckups" like everyone else does - but this one is, even if the bridge will be repaired in a short time. That bridge was supposed to be heavily defended against air, ground, water or underwater attack. This should not have happened. Someone's head is going to roll.

OTOH, there is no such thing as "security". Things are "secure" only until someone else doesn't want them to be. Obviously someone figured out the weak link in the bridge's security.

I do agree that Russia needs to punish Ukraine for this one severely. Drop a few dozen Iskanders on Kiev.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 8 2022 11:04 utc | 91

... Doesn't rule out an involuntary sacrifice by an unknowing trucker, though

Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 8 2022 10:24 utc | 70

Could have been a remote detonation with the truck driver unaware of the explosives stowed in the vehicle. Assuming the tanker-train was intentionally targeted, this would have required a real-time view of the train and truck from the outside and within radio trigger range. Somewhere close by with a telescope and radio transmitter would do, or following at a safe enough distance. Ukies are crackpots, though, so “do this or we’ll rape whole family to death” is also an option.

Another thing that supports the idea that the train was also a target is the fact that the post-explosion vapour and smoke cloud seems to contain a huge rain of slowly falling incandescent clumps, suggesting that the truck was also packed with incendiary material (white phosphorus, magnesium flares etc), to ignite the tanker-train after the explosion had ruptured one or more fuel tanks.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 8 2022 11:04 utc | 92

@Tom UK

That referendum was a farce, to validate something that had already happened. Without any legal mandate.

Yeltsin had already (illegally) pulled Russia out of the USSR after a backroom deal with the then leaders of Ukraine, Belarus & Kazakhstan.

Beyond that the Sovok authorities of the UssR used administrative resources to get the ''right'' answer. Also things have rather changed in 30 odd years no?

Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 8 2022 11:06 utc | 93

It seems trolls like Tom UKR would dearly love to goad Russia into a nuclear response - I imagine them to proudly tell their children "look at those mushroom clouds my little ones, your father Tom did his tiny bit to make this possible...". A happy prosperous family for ever and ever!
But it's not only common decency they lack, but ability to think logically as well. "Russia releasing the Nazi's is horrible" - so they were Nazi's then? So Western Europe will now openly go for hero worship of Nazi's? Then another troll tells us there aren't any Nazi's in Ukraine - so what exactly was wrong with the POW exchange? They constantly contradict themselves. Another thing I imagine: two operatives at Langley , the one telling the other "hey man, , this story is so messed-up, I'm lost in the script and this Mali place, is that in Ukraine or in Syria, google it will you?".
In the end the Russian narrative will prevail and the much-hyped Western propaganda will be seen for what it is, because the sheer stupidity of the last will not survive the continuation of history.

Posted by: Anthony | Oct 8 2022 11:08 utc | 94

To @69 laguerre
...It is unwise to lose a key military supply line during a war...No, RU did not lost any key military supply line. The physical damage of the bridge, both the bridge road and specifically railroad in fact is rather small. And the bridge construction is modular. However, in terms of PR and NATO psyop against RU this is a serious blow.

Posted by: Josef Schweik | Oct 8 2022 11:10 utc | 95

B

You hit the jackpot this time, the moaning minnies are have the best birthdays!

Your crowd of border fluid non binary commentators has her/it/a moment - greedy fingers covered in chocolate...

Meanwhile: Back in the real world -'Putin and his CIS colleagues discuss preparations for Russia-Central Asia summit'

"""The topic for discussion is preparations for next week's first-ever summit in the Russia-Central Asia format in Astana," Putin said. He drew attention to the fact that "this forum is held in the year of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and all five Central Asian states."

As it was previously reported, the CIS summits, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) and the meeting of heads of state in the Russia-Central Asia format will be held in the capital of Kazakhstan, which is chairing the CIS in 2022, on October 12-14.

"We do have a lot of issues, we have gathered together, we have already begun to discuss some of them, they are all of significant interest to us in the economy, in the social sphere and in the international legal aspect. I am confident that we will have a fruitful meeting today," Putin told his colleagues. He thanked the CIS leaders for "responding to the invitation and coming to St. Petersburg".""

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 8 2022 11:10 utc | 96

The Russians talk a lot but I see no evidence that they have the guts to win this fight. They are like Baghdad Bob, talking about what they will or will not do while being humiliated on the battlefield. This is a far cry from the mighty Russian army I was always told about. What will Ukraine do next, attack Moscow? I guess there would be no response either. This overly conservative approach by Putin will destroy his country.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Oct 8 2022 11:11 utc | 97

@Objective Observer #34
> Al Qaeda literally translates as "the database" which was
> the CIA list of Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan.

Bullshit. In Arabic Al Qaeda means, the base, or, the foundation. A variation would be, Al Qawa-id, i.e. founding principles. Maequad, Place to sit, etc.

Posted by: juha | Oct 8 2022 11:12 utc | 98

Tom UK

It is obvious to anyone that Ukraine is a different country since 2014, therefore it is meaningless to talk about earlier referendums.
73% of Ukrainians voted for peace with Russia in 2019. They soon discovered that the votes meant nothing because they'd lost their sovereignty in 2014.

Posted by: Glasshopper | Oct 8 2022 11:13 utc | 99

Curious Passerby

What will Ukraine do next, attack Moscow

Exactly, Ukraine getting away with these attacks just emolden them to escalate. Yes attacks in Moscow will occur! aAsassinations of russian military/politicians will occur, it is just a matter of time.
Ukraine is playing with Russia right now, incredibly embarrassing that this world power is this bad and unprepared, Putin might end up like Hitler in his bunker if he keeps sleeping on this humiliated development.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 8 2022 11:14 utc | 100

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