Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 28, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-186

[Note: While the Typepad frontend now seems to again work, the backend, through which I edit, post and moderate, is still extremely slow - that is when it works at all.

I am therefore now sure I will be able to post later today as I had planned.

-b.]

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on October 28, 2022 at 13:39 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@ 201

Commercial airliners do not carry hundreds of tons of fuel. No airplane does. A military tanker used for mid-air refueling does not meet that mark. Easy to look that one up, suggest you do so.

Every step of your fantasy scenario defies fact and logic. Problem is you uncritically believe what you are told.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 29 2022 15:47 utc | 201

oops... I got that wrong.

The probability of 2 coin flips with heads leading to nuclear war is 75% not 50%

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 29 2022 15:40 utc | 216

... say what

Posted by: Tichy | Oct 29 2022 15:48 utc | 202

Posted by: southfront fan | Oct 29 2022 15:38 utc | 215

Can anyone tell me how true the claim of hundreds of thousands of russians leaving to avoid draft is?
thx”

It’s about as true as ‘Ukraine is winning’.

Posted by: Jax | Oct 29 2022 15:50 utc | 203

@ Posted by: OttoE | Oct 29 2022 14:54 utc | 201

Com'on Otto, pay attention. He is talking about Building 7.

There was no "fire raging in the building", just a few small fires in different locations.
There was no jet fuel in Building 7, as it was not hit by a plane.

Then there is that pesky announcement on live TV that the building had already come down while it was still standing in the background.

Building 7 was controlled demolition, full stop.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 29 2022 15:50 utc | 204

Hot tamales that is a lot of maintenance. I do hope that Bernard is ok, and that we will hear from him soon.

Posted by: Josh | Oct 29 2022 15:55 utc | 205

🇷🇺🇺🇦 After the terrorist attack on the Crimean bridge, Ukraine lost more than a third of its distribution and generating capacities.

After the drone attack on Sevastopol, Russia has every opportunity to completely close the export of any product from Ukraine by sea.

Retribution should be as heavy and painful as possible.


https://t.me/intelslava/40252

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2022 15:57 utc | 206

Ukrainian forces are desperate to capture the ZNPP, according to this they tried to land forces nearby the plant again today,but were foiled. Its claimed employees of the ZNPP are called on the telephone every day and threatened by Kiev.

I think we all know by now why they want to capture the ZNPP.


https://tass.com/russia/1529577

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 29 2022 15:59 utc | 207

I feel for those needy countries that want the grain badly.

The British and Ukraine's cowardly terrorist attack on the grain ships, and their escorts at Sevastopol, has caused Ukraine's opponent (Russia) to pull out of the grain ship deal, which will see many countries in the Third World who desperately need the grain suffer greatly. Mind you only a small percentage of the grain made it to the countries that most needed it, Europe hijacked the lion’s share of it for themselves.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 29 2022 16:01 utc | 208

@AntiSpin | Oct 28 2022 14:30 utc | 4

I believe E Tu and I posted about it. (http://johnhelmer.net/the-us-signals-readiness-to-launch-nuclear-strike-against-russia/)

That said there is a very interesting comment thread here disputing some of the claims:

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/10/the-us-signals-readiness-to-launch-nuclear-strike-against-russia.html

Perhaps bullying Iran as well Russia - the "two-fer"..

Posted by: daffyDuct | Oct 29 2022 16:02 utc | 209

quote from russia mod..

"The preparation of this terrorist act and training of the military personnel of the Ukrainian 73rd Special Center for Maritime Operations had been carried out under the supervision of the British experts, based in the city of Ochakov in Ukraine’s Nikolaev Region,” the ministry said."

i wouldn't want to be sitting in the city of ochakov at the moment, specifically the building where this was happening... better to relocate to a different location... those folks might get novichoked like the skripals in salisbury!

@ Ricardo Ramirez | Oct 29 2022 14:02 utc | 179 - good response to the madness of this thread..

@ morongobill | Oct 29 2022 15:09 utc | 205 - yes, indeed!

@ Bruised Northerner | Oct 29 2022 15:35 utc | 21 - thanks for that info..

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2022 16:04 utc | 210

Looks like British navy personnel were not only involved in the Sevastopol attack, but the NordStream attacks as well.


Experts from the UK Royal Navy, who were preparing military personnel of Ukraine’s 73rd Maritime Special Operations Center for the recent terrorist attack in Sevastopol, were also involved in the Nord Stream gas pipelines sabotage.

"According to the information available to us, representatives of the UK Navy participated in planning, supporting, and executing the terrorist act in the Baltic Sea on September 26 in order to disrupt the Nord Stream and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines," the statement said.

According to the ministry, British experts also prepared Ukrainian military for the terrorist attack in Sevastopol. "The preparation of this terrorist act and the training of military personnel of the Ukrainian 73rd Maritime Special Operations Center were carried out under the guidance of British specialists located in the city of Ochakov, Nikolaev region," the department said."


https://tass.com/russia/1529537

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 29 2022 16:07 utc | 211

@OttoE 201

I wrote in #93: "No high rise building has ever collapsed due to a fire, much less collapse at free fall speed into the building's footprint." Let me correct this by saying no normal fire that is consuming the contents of a high rise building has ever collapsed due to such a fire. You can check it out and you'll see that no fire department ever expects a high rise to collapse, hence they will send personnel to stage either one or two floors below the fire floor, then go to that floor and directly fight the fire. If the fire spreads to another floor, they will go there as well.

No airplane hit WTC building 7, and there was no jet fuel to increase the temperature of the fire up to 1800-2000 degrees fahrenheit such that the metal would be destroyed. A normal fire would not exceed 1100 degrees and this cannot make steel melt or fail. Only three high rise buildings have ever collapsed due to fire -- the twin towers, which had planes hit them and dump jet fuel sufficient to greatly increase the temperature of the fire, and WTC building 7, which had fires break out for unknown reasons but no jet fuel. All three collapsed into their own building footprints.

The elephant in the room is WTC 7, and there has yet to be a reasonable explanation for why this building would collapse as it did simply due to the breakout of fires in the building. What caused those fires? No plane hit them and there was no jet fuel involved. For these reasons, the possibility of detonation charges timed to cause the building to collapse at "free-fall" speed into its own footprint appears to be a very viable explanation.

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Oct 29 2022 16:11 utc | 212

Big protests in Czechia

https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1586048542573039621

Czech protesters call for new government, direct gas talks with Russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-protesters-call-new-government-direct-gas-talks-with-russia-2022-10-28/

Posted by: daffyDuct | Oct 29 2022 16:12 utc | 213

But the utter hypocrisy! The UK proudly states how many weapons they ship to UKR, they loudly insist that Russia should taste defeat, but when confronted with their covert actions it's "no no, that wasn't us, that's fantasy from Russia...".
One of the trolls here is always writing "Russia doesn't dare" - but the lack of honest courage clearly is a problem on the other side...

Posted by: Anthony | Oct 29 2022 16:16 utc | 214

I see that the trolling activity has become a bit more sophisticated.

Base level trolling is one that seeks to elicit responses, regardless of whether the initiating comments have any merit (eg zanon)

However, commenters typically learn to spot such accounts and quickly adapt a non response policy ie "dont feed the trolls", thereby defeating the primary intent to distract and suppress

So then we get stage 2, where either a single person with multiple accounts (sock puppets) or a group of posters coordinate a flood of cross conversations unrelated to thread topics in an effort to pollute and discourage true participation

What I find interesting is this technique was popularized by stormfront years ago, which suggests their fellow nazis are once again rolling it out to test its effectiveness

Posted by: B9k9 | Oct 29 2022 16:21 utc | 215

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2022 16:04 utc | 228

Late start for me - I now come to the top of righthand column to first, after reading b's advisory, and later link into the top of the thread again,so am scrolling backwards. Sobering news, beginning with unimperator at 230. Hang in there, b. We can scroll through unfamiliar territory. Blessings on all. Thanks, james for noting important messages. That is a good practice, leaves us free to find our own as well as bookmarking yours. I'm slow; finally cottoned on to what you have been doing!

And I send my apologies to those posting important links - lately, to go to such leaves me unable to reconnect, so I'll appreciate thumbnail accounts - not going to links embedded at present. Incoming flak; stay safe, all.

Posted by: juliania | Oct 29 2022 16:25 utc | 216

Posted by: Anthony | Oct 29 2022 16:16 utc | 232

Exactly which is why I wouldn’t fear equivalent reprisals if Russia dropped a few Kinzhals or even a Satan in Kiev.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Oct 29 2022 16:26 utc | 217

@OdessaConnected 230

Let Me Google 'high-rise building collapse due to fire' For You. This returns a plethora of links, including videos, of buildings all over the world collapsing "due to a fire" while meeting all the No True Scotsman exclusion criteria subsequently introduced by you.

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 29 2022 16:29 utc | 218

Republicofscotland | Oct 29 2022 16:07 utc | 229

I hope they have proof that can be shown to the public, it would be a nice day.

So far I can't find much about this news reported. Most of US sites are busy with that dude in underwear at pelosi's husband's house. Can't two happy men have fun anymore?

Posted by: rk | Oct 29 2022 16:42 utc | 219

@Thomas Turk #147

My cousin, who commands the Army Corps which will take Odessa in the coming days (note the strict topic adherence), told me the average ultra-octogenarians (I am 97 or 102 not sure), who overwhelmingly populate MoA, should be fearful even of a non-existing virus.

Therefore, along with Zinc and Vitamin D and Bleach (the anime), we should consume generous amounts of Russian Bear urine.
I do that everyday and now I cannot remember my name, but those Big Pharma poisons will never have me!

Posted by: Old Artificer | Oct 29 2022 16:55 utc | 220

...This will allow supply lines to be taken under fire control, which will significantly reduce the threat of shelling of the Donbass by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. ...

Posted by: Down South | Oct 29 2022 15:14 utc | 189

Those supply lines should have been under fire control from drone-corrected missile artillery long ago. Putting RF troops in harms way now to do something that is the job of medium range spotter drones and laser guided rockets. Even the attacks on civilians wasn’t enough to motivate a technical solution.

It doesn’t change my opinion that RF has absolutely distinguished itself by the exemplary conduct of its forces but this is yet another odd fact of the conflict.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 29 2022 16:55 utc | 221

@Southfront Fan 197

In other news there is only one permitted legal border crossing by road from Russia into Georgia. A place called Verkhny Lars border crossing!

Interestingly, that road is currently under reconstruction since September 2021. The border crossing point was massively enlarged to 6.5 times the previous capacity.

Now prior to international travel both the Black Sea coastline in Ukraine, Crimea, and Georgia were the most popular affordable holiday places to go to. After the usual Baltic Sea coastal resorts.

Data from Georgia's National Tourism Agency shows that each Russian tourist last year spent, on average, about $465 during their visit to Georgia -- injecting more than $720 million into the Georgian economy. In 2018 the volume of Russian tourists was 1.8 million and increasing.

Thus we now have the perfect excuse for the usual dumber than a house brick USSA 'z' grade propaganda writers. To say look at all the Russians fleeing the country's military draft. Lets not mention Russia has 24 million basic military reserves including stored military equipment.

Now, substitute pictures of tourists/bad translations/traffic backed up to Lars Border Station. Claim upgrades to the Russian Border Force buildings at Lars as a new recruitment center. Repeat often and sell trash propaganda as a fact to all Western Media(corporate/Murdoch/Five eyes).

The end result is yet another round of flying poop and fake dung!

Who benefits?

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 29 2022 1:29 utc | 37

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 29 2022 17:05 utc | 222

Posted by: Dr W P Cockshott | Oct 29 2022 14:42 utc

Agreed that the probability of getting two heads in two tosses of a fair coin is 1/4, FWIW.

Posted by: spudski | Oct 29 2022 17:40 utc | 223

@Seward 181

Unlikely. The Western intention is to try to keep what remains of the Ukraine simmering as an ongoing embarrassment for Russia, no matter the reality, with the English stoking the fire and stirring the pot and the US being blessed woth a hyperabundance of shit, smearing it everywhere in the hope that some sticks.

Meanwhile CoViD in the USA is an unmentionable ongoing disaster, with more US CoViD related deaths under Biden than there were under Trump.

Total CoViD related deaths: 1,066,351
CoViD Deaths at Jan 20, 2021: 396,837 (under Trump)
CoViD Deaths under Biden Administration
669,414

Impressive what does not make the news.

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 29 2022 17:48 utc | 224

@marko 168

Sensibly so. Russia is fully aware that to the limits of scientific certainty, that war between nuclear equipped states will lead to human extinction, and, as the only adult in the room, seeks to avoid that. The US and UK are working assiduously on the part of at least some of their oligarchs to initiate what is intended as a thermonuclear War of Depopulation, but which will lead to extinction. Let's hope that they fail.

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 29 2022 18:06 utc | 225

@marko 168
Sensibly so. Russia is fully aware that to the limits of scientific certainty, that war between nuclear equipped states will lead to human extinction, and, as the only adult in the room, seeks to avoid that. The US and UK are working assiduously on the part of at least some of their oligarchs to initiate what is intended as a thermonuclear War of Depopulation, but which will lead to extinction. Let's hope that they fail.
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 29 2022 18:06 utc | 225]

Hermit, why the US and UK want nuclear war?
Is that not very irrational?
How the capitalistic forces with rational traditions became so irrational?
How is it possible that there is no peace movement on US and UK universities?

Posted by: marko | Oct 29 2022 18:26 utc | 226

@ juliania | Oct 29 2022 16:25 utc | 216

thanks juliania... it is hard to stay on top of all these threads.. some highlighting is helpful, but still we miss much! when i can, i read all the commentary.. it gives me a wider perspective and i find it very helpful when i do say something or engage with others.. thanks...


i wish typepad timestamps would go back to normal..

Posted by: james | Oct 29 2022 18:34 utc | 227

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Oct 29 2022 14:12 utc | 185

There was a battle at Donetsk airport, yes also in 2014, and yesterday, since the major channels reported it and released the drone video which was in the TG post link.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 29 2022 20:02 utc | 228

@oldhippie | Oct 29 2022 15:47 utc | 201

Guessing you meant #183, not your own 201: I did look it up. Fuel capacity spec of 747 is 185.000 liters. That's around 150 metric tons. I recall one of the 9/11 planes had 90 tons on start. Didn't check that again, though. As I said, the case is clear to me.

I do not "uncritically believe what I'm told". Why do you say that? In the particular case, my judgement is substantiated by 4 decades of professional R&D involving thermodynamics. Which by the way has earned me more than a handful of patents. Sorry for you not understanding my ELI5. I tried; feels good. Fell on barren field; not the first time; can live with that; just learn who to to take serious an who not. You have a chance to post a link to an explanation of what happened according to your opinion. Even better, just explain it yourself. IF you can. (Big "if" intented). I'm willing to learn.

Posted by: OttoE | Oct 29 2022 20:52 utc | 229

@Opport Knocks 194

The probability of two independent events occurring is the product of the probabilities of the two events. So, the probability of a fair coin coming up twice in a row is .5 x .5 = .25. The probability of heads coming up three times in a row is .5 x .5 x .5 = .125. This is Statistics 101. You can Google 'probability of two independent events occurring.' For these 50-50 events, you can use Pascal's triangle to quickly find the probability based on the number of events (or coin flips, etc.).

Posted by: OdessaConnected | Oct 29 2022 21:42 utc | 230

OdessaConnected | Oct 29 2022 16:11 utc | 212

A normal fire would not exceed 1100 degrees and this cannot make steel melt or fail.

The steel did not melt and did not "fail" due to softening (which happens, but the beams were sure load-wise over-dimensioned like bridges etc). But 100°C temperature difference (realistic gradient between inside and outside) over 10 m (say, 3 floors) cause already 9 mm difference in the linear expansion of steel. Expansion MUST go somewhere. (Hence the gaps in (older) railway tracks). Project this warp from the fire zone over 100 m like an "upwards directed beam" (at the floor, the vertical steel beams are fixed), the deviation is already 90 mm. One side. The towers were even higher, temperature gradients also, the fire zone also. The "tulip" I described was more like a "funnel". Wide at the top. The top floors (not anchored!) simply fell down when they slipped off the ledges they rested on. And even anchoring might not have helped. The forces of expansion know no limits. Ice can burst rocks, warping steel bolts, welds and rivets.

Posted by: OttoE | Oct 29 2022 21:57 utc | 231

Chaka Khagan | Oct 29 2022 2:47 utc | 101
“Is that from Moby Dick?”
No. From the source cited in the post.
Jfc.
Melville, The Confidence-Man: His Masquerade
Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 29 2022 3:21 utc | 105

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 30 2022 4:03 utc | 232

Woo Hoo, you're back online.

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 31 2022 8:16 utc | 233

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 31 2022 8:16 utc | 233

Well we Aussies seem to be the only ones here. b doesn't appear to be home yet...

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 31 2022 9:22 utc | 234

The results of Russian missile attacks at 11:00 (Moscow time) on October 31, 2022:

The following regions and cities were hit:
- Kiev
- Dnepropetrovsk
- Vinnitsa
- Zaporozhye
- Poltava
- Kharkov
- Kirovograd
- Lvov

Attacks on important objects:
- CHPP-5 (Kiev)
- CHPP-6 (Kiev)
- Lviv CHPP (Lvov)
- Kremenchug HPP
- DneproGes
- Novodnestrovskaya HPP

(*CHPP- combined heat and power plant. )
(*HPP - Hydroelectric power plant. )

Metros in Kiev and Kharkov have stopped working. There is no electricity.

In many cities of Ukraine there are problems with water supply and electricity. In Kyiv, an energy facility supplying 350,000 apartments was significantly damaged.

-Spetsnaz Archangel.

Also. Multiple videos of Ukrainian air defense missiles missing targets and self-detonating. Police in Kiev reported that the city has suffered casualties and property damage as a result of air defense work.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/17706

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 31 2022 9:23 utc | 235

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 31 2022 8:16 utc | 233

Well we Aussies seem to be the only ones here. b doesn't appear to be home yet...

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 31 2022 9:23 utc | 236

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (31 October 2022)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have continued launching strikes by high-precision long-range air- and sea-based armament at the military control and energy systems of Ukraine.

◽️ The goals of the attacks have been reached. All the assigned targets have been neutralised.

💥 In Kupyansk direction, Russian forces have neutralised 2 company tactical groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as well as 2 groups of foreign mercenaries near Orlyanka (Kharkov region), Nikolayevka and Kuzemovka (Lugansk People's Republic).

◽️ Over 110 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, 1 tank, 3 armoured fighting vehicles, 2 pickups, and 2 motor vehicles have been eliminated.

💥 In Krasny Liman direction, 3 company tactical groups attempted to conduct an offensive towards Makeyevka and Chervonopopovka (Lugansk People's Republic).

◽️ All the attacks have been repelled.

◽️ Russian forces have eliminated over 170 Ukrainian personnel, 3 tanks, 5 armoured fighting vehicles, and 9 motor vehicles.

💥 In Donetsk direction, units of Russian army continued their intensive operation.

◽️ Assault and artillery units of Russian forces have eliminated over 60 Ukrainian personnel, 1 tank, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, and 2 motor vehicles.

💥 In Nikolayev–Krivoy Rog direction, company tactical groups of the AFU made 4 attempts to launch attacks towards Pyatikhatki, Chervony Yar, Ishchenka and Zelyony Gai (Kherson region).

◽️ The enemy has been driven back to initial positions by fire and decisive action of Russian troops.

◽️ Over 70 Ukrainian personnel and mercenaries, 5 armoured fighting vehicles, 7 motor vehicles and 1 German-manufactured Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery system have been eliminated.

💥 Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery have neutralised 8 AFU command posts near Omelnik, Preobrazhenka, Zaliznichnoye, Gulyaipole (Zaporozhye region), Bereznegovatoye, Kaluga, Chervony Yar, Murakhovka (Nikolayev region), as well as 57 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 136 areas.

◽️ 4 ammunition depots have been destroyed near Novaya Kamenka, Novoaleksandrovka (Kherson region), Terny and Kolodezi (Donetsk People's Republic).

💥 Air defence facilities have shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Popasnaya, Novonikanorovka (Lugansk People's Republic), Mechnikovo (Kharkov region), Volnovakha, Kirillovka, Nikolskoye (Donetsk People's Republic) and Kazatskoye (Kherson region).

◽️ Moreover, 4 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS, as well as 7 HARM anti-radiation missiles have been intercepted near Novaya Kakhovka and Antonovka (Kherson region).

📊 In total, 328 airplanes and 167 helicopters, 2,393 unmanned aerial vehicles, 384 air defence missile systems, 6,213 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 879 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,540 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,920 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine #report
@mod_russia_en

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4784

Posted by: Summary | Oct 31 2022 12:57 utc | 237

@ Summary | Oct 31 2022 12:57 utc | 237 with the summary....Thanks

Yes, it is good to be back online

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 31 2022 13:56 utc | 238

A couple days ago, Russia named the British Navy as the saboteur of NS2 without revealing any evidence. In a separate news item, we learned Liz Truss' phone was hacked by Russia.

Now it all comes together. George Galloway on the latest edition of MOATS, drops the bombshell Liz Truss texted, "It's done," to Blinken one minute after NS2 exploded, based on information Russia obtained from her hacked phone using Israeli Pegasus spyware. I'm not able to confirm this from any other source.

Posted by: Jun | Oct 31 2022 14:06 utc | 239

Russia making a fool of themselves once again. The other day they claimed they will not follow the grain deal. So what is the response by Ukraine and other parties:

"Ukrainian grain cleared to ship despite Russian deal suspension
Moscow was “informed” of the decision to grant safe passage to cargo ships via Turkish ports "
https://swentr.site/news/565632-russia-ukraine-grain-deal/

And yeah today Russia bombed electricity and water sites in Ukraine. For exactly what purpose?

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 31 2022 15:28 utc | 240

This is phenomenal news, almost certainly helped by the sra of mud preventing fire and move to limit the impact of anti-battery fire.

"57 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 136 areas"

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 31 2022 15:30 utc | 241

reply to 240

Russia bombed infrastructure because negotiation is refused. Therefore, the only way for them to win the war is by making Ukraine unliveable. At some point, the war becomes impossible because Ukraine lacks manpower, armor, ammo, food, heat, jobs and so on. It's sad but there is no other way. The speculation would be, what breaks first as to ending the war?

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 31 2022 16:33 utc | 242

reply to 240

Russia bombed infrastructure because negotiation is refused. Therefore, the only way for them to win the war is by making Ukraine unliveable. At some point, the war becomes impossible because Ukraine lacks manpower, armor, ammo, food, heat, jobs and so on. It's sad but there is no other way. The speculation would be, what breaks first as to ending the war?

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 31 2022 16:33 utc | 243

reply to 240

Russia bombed infrastructure because negotiation is refused. Therefore, the only way for them to win the war is by making Ukraine unliveable. At some point, the war becomes impossible because Ukraine lacks manpower, armor, ammo, food, heat, jobs and so on. It's sad but there is no other way. The speculation would be, what breaks first as to ending the war?

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 31 2022 16:34 utc | 244

Finally managed to access the site, since 2 days unavailable in south EU, but b. has warned us about it.
Excellent, excellent article by big serge on how the tactical units of RF are organized, plus a thriller about past, first ever recorded battle tactics between Ramses and Hittites, wonderful. Thank you also to all the barflies really contributing, I am learning so much. Thank you B.

Posted by: stranger | Oct 31 2022 18:31 utc | 245

Here is the link on the article, it is really very good, sorry forgot to add:

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/sound-and-fury

Posted by: stranger | Oct 31 2022 18:37 utc | 246

Here is the link on the article, it is really very good, sorry forgot to add:

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/sound-and-fury

Posted by: stranger | Oct 31 2022 18:37 utc | 247

@ Posted by: Tichy | Oct 29 2022 15:48 utc | 202

In reality, the evil empire/world bully boy USSA/NATO always operates on the first-strike doctrine. Since 1945!

Since both China/Russia have hypersonic nukes ready to fly for the return shooting match. Scheduled to fly after confirmation Minuteman 3 upgraded units depart their silos.

It is 100 seconds to midnight. This is far worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis! The odds of the Yankees making the first/final General Ripper mistake is closer than 95%..

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 31 2022 18:50 utc | 248

@ Posted by: Tichy

Actually in the real world. Both NATO and the USSA always operate on the first-strike doctrine. Since 1945!

Since both China and Russia have hypersonic nukes ready to fly for the return shooting match. Scheduled to fly after confirmation Minuteman 3 upgraded units depart their silos.

It is 100 seconds to midnight. This is far worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis! The odds of the Yankees making the first and final General Ripper mistake is closer than 95%..

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 31 2022 18:54 utc | 249

Posted by: Tichy

Actually in the real world. Both NATO and the USSA always operate on the first-strike doctrine. Since 1945!

Since both China and Russia have hypersonic nukes ready to fly for the return shooting match. Scheduled to fly after confirmation Minuteman 3 upgraded units depart their silos.

It is 100 seconds to midnight. This is far worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis! The odds of the Yankees making the first and final General Ripper mistake is closer than 95%..

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 31 2022 18:54 utc | 250

At Posted by Tichy

Actually in the real world. Both NATO and the USSA always operate on the first-strike doctrine. Since 1945!

Since both China and Russia have hypersonic nukes ready to fly for the return shooting match. Scheduled to fly after confirmation Minuteman 3 upgraded units depart their silos.

It is 100 seconds to midnight. This is far worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis! The odds of the Yankees making the first and final General Ripper mistake is closer than 95%.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 31 2022 18:55 utc | 251

Otto E @ 229

The numbering changed. It does that here.

I would call 150 'more than a hundred' rather than 'hundreds'. Semantics.

You are assuming that the heat calories go where your model wants them to go. You don't know where they go. Steel is a good conductor. Steel mostly concrete encased.

Thought experiment. Make the tower one million times smaller. That means 100 times smaller in each of three directions. Still an 11 foot tall scale model that weighs tons. Now how big is the fuel load? How much does your scale model care about that fuel? A hundred tons of fuel sounds enormous. It really isn't.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 31 2022 20:50 utc | 252

31/10 How mortars of the 11th regiment crush the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Avdiivka (near Donetsk) ⚡️

The inclusion of @wargonzo correspondent Ruslan Khakiev - from the position of the mortar crews of the 11th regiment of the NM of the DPR, which help tighten the noose around the throat of the Avdiivka group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

All the details from this direction - in a special report by @wargonzo on Channel One today!

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 31 2022 22:24 utc | 253

Three months after their first broken agreement "the export of Russian farm produce and fertilizers has not been implemented." (TASS, today). Resumption of that part and of the entire grain deal depends on the Kiev regime honoring what it hasjust violently dishonored by a new (same old, same old) agreement. This will work.

Posted by: Elmagnostic | Nov 1 2022 19:20 utc | 254

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