Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 24, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-182

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Comments

Why would a dirty bomb necessitate a nuclear escalation? Destroying power plants in Poland giving the Europeans a taste of the war they are willing to fund, exposing article 5, nato, the EU and the US empire as liars and frauds. How many weak impotent bankrupt European vassals states would line up to sacrifice themselves for Ukraint? Making an example of a nato country ends this war, nato and the EU.

Posted by: NewWorldDisorder | Oct 25 2022 4:01 utc | 301

@ PavewayIV | Oct 25 2022 2:53 utc | 291
thanks… understand what you are saying and webb is sort of getting at.. it is a possible way of ending this basically – over some nightmarish thing basically… i can’t see it myself.. i wish i could… i see this as a long agonizing war as opposed to a short one at this point… i might have to revise my viewpoint come spring..
@ Maxx | Oct 25 2022 3:22 utc | 298
people are just offering ideas here and speculating… why the hostile attitude or am i misreading you?

Posted by: james | Oct 25 2022 4:02 utc | 302

Additionally to my comment at 296, small amounts of Polonium 210 are allegedly made in other countries; from the reference at Slate I cited earlier:
“Or the diversion could have come from outside Russia. A number of other countries with nuclear reactors have been suspected of clandestinely producing or buying polonium-210, including Iran (where it was detected by IAEA inspectors in 2000), North Korea (where it was detected by U.S. airborne sampling), Israel (where several scientists died from accidental leaks of it in the 1950s and 1960s), Pakistan, and China. But whatever its source, the polonium diversion has serious implications. The real problem is not its toxicity, since its alpha particles can’t penetrate the surface of the skin and therefore have to be ingested or breathed in to cause any damage. (That can happen if you have polonium-210 on your person or clothes.) The more serious danger is that it could be sold to a country that wanted to set off a nuclear device, clean or dirty.”
I remember from the screaming-headline stories on Litvinenko’s death that traces of Polonium 210 were found all over London – including, among other places, the fax machine at Boris Berzovsky’s place. But neither of the two alleged Russian assassins were ever there. Litvinenko was, but as the above provides, Polonium 210’s alpha particles are weak and cannot penetrate the skin. Presumably that means either way; from the inside as well as the outside. Litvinenko was allegedly poisoned by drinking it, in tea. But now it’s inside Litvinenko, and presumably cannot get out. How did it get on the fax machine at Berzovsky’s place? How did it get all over the car in which Litvinenko was traveling with Scaramella, but where the two alleged assassins had never been? Was Litvinenko licking these things?

Posted by: Mark | Oct 25 2022 4:04 utc | 303

james | Oct 25 2022 4:02 utc | 307
you are misreadig me

Posted by: Maxx | Oct 25 2022 4:18 utc | 304

thanks maxx.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Oct 25 2022 4:33 utc | 305

Posted by: hankster | Oct 24 2022 21:07 utc | 204
.
Link not working to IRIS-T

Posted by: Mo3 | Oct 25 2022 4:37 utc | 306

Elmer Fudd | Oct 25 2022 2:18 utc | 283
The Polonium-210 isotope that so many of Putin’s enemies die from…
Here is where you can buy a lethal dose of Polonium 210 for mere $156.
https://amstat.com/products/anti-static-brush-with-ionizing-cartridge-1.html
Only totally oblivious fools think Po210 is somehow exclusive to Putin or hard to obtain.

Posted by: averros | Oct 25 2022 4:42 utc | 307

Everyday I am hearing about Russian reinforcements and how they are going to change the game. I hear people like Scott Ritter and Douglas McGregor talk about how the Ukranians have been decimated. The fact is since July the Russian have been on the back foot. This complaining about what they believe the Ukranian will do or not do paints a picture of a weak army. The Russian army has been painted as this invincible army that could not be beaten, as it is now the ukranians have them on the ropes. They fight for three months to advance two kilometers and get pushed back in an hour. They have been trying to take Bakhmut for months and cannot take it yet this “decimated” ukraine army has them on the run everywhere. When will the Russians turn up. Where are the reinforcements after the mobilization and what impact are they having? If they abandon Kherson I think that is the end of the road.

Posted by: Curious Passerby | Oct 25 2022 4:49 utc | 308

Stop being manipulated by propaganda.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 24 2022 15:05 utc | 73
I’m certainly no expert, and in addition not smart enough to understand why anyone would push such bulls*hit, but I do know that billions of highly radioactive particles being released into the air has nothing in common with background radiation.

Posted by: Gene Poole | Oct 25 2022 4:50 utc | 309

Curious Passerby | Oct 25 2022 4:49 utc | 313
OK, it’s legitimate to have concern, but consider a couple of things.
What doesn’t lie is when the pro-Ukrainian papers the New York Times and the Washington Post talk to Ukrainian soldiers who are experienced veterans, and they talk of how it’s been hell on earth to fight the Russian/Allied forces.
What also doesn’t lie is when we see video, sometimes from the Ukrainian military themself, of the AFU now using the oldest variants of Soviet era armored vehicles, the newest stuff is almost never seen anymore, though the burned out remains of their destroyed equipment are often seen.
What doesn’t lie is Zelenskyy begging for aid while he speaks of blackouts, and his face and voice show the ravages from his desperate use of lots of cocaine. Or maybe he just looks and sounds more and more like a coke addict due to stress and use of stimulants. Either way, he looks bad, and that look doesn’t lie.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 25 2022 5:17 utc | 310

@PavewayIV | thx very much for the George webb tip. Thoroughly enjoyable distraction. Will keep my eyes open to see what comes next.

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 25 2022 5:22 utc | 311

Below is the title of a recent Reuters posting
Russia brings Ukraine ‘dirty bomb’ warning to U.N. as it evacuates Kherson
That ought to complicate matters for the dirty bomb folk I would think.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 25 2022 5:55 utc | 312

marcjf @99
I think you are close to the truth.One thing that goes unmentioned is the sudden flight to Washington by the UK Defense Minister Wallace right after his call from Shoigu because what he had to say was to sensitive for communications. I believe Shoigu revealed they have voice intercepts of the UK plotting to create a dirty bomb with Ukraine (probably on the Ukraine end). Revealing that they have been intercepting high level communications is not something done lightly which is further evidence this is a real thing and a very imminent threat.
I also believe the rational actors are the various defense ministers, secretaries, etc. of nuclear armed militaries hence the phone calls to all of them. The political side is not so rational so I can easily imagine in the UK that MI-6 might be doing something that the military had no knowledge of and the same true for the CIA and the Pentagon. In the latter case we have the addition of highly irrational ideologues over at the State Department, many of who are either former Ukrainians or descended from Banderists that emigrated to the West.
Te reaction is as predicted but very clearly what Russia has done is to call those in a position to act to thwart this plot and to control the nazi terrorists in Ukraine. If they carry it out of blow off the control efforts then I expect some actions to take place inside Ukraine perhaps forcible removal or assassination of the plotters. Would also expect a Spetznatz operation to try and obtain the weapon. The problem is that the town of Yellow waters is chock-filled with nuclear material and there is somewhere on the order of 50,000 cubic meters of nuclear waste stored there. This is in addition to what is at Chernobyl and the 3 nuclear power plants still in the control of Ukraine. There could also be a major Russian military assault north to Kravy Rij to take control of the entire area where the waste is stored. I fear the timing is wrong for this though and that it is much more imminent a threat hence why Russia is making all the calls.
Going back to the what-if’s it boggles the imagination what all could happen in response.
As for the 101st Airborne being in Romania. This is a single Brigade Combat Team that arrived in May as part of the permanent basing of the US forces (NATO) in Romania and they followed the previous deployment of the 82nd Airborne Division. It is a planned and normal rotation. Why suddenly in October it is released as a serious deployment is yet another provocation in the MSM which Russia has obviously ignored. They are no real threat and incapable of any actual military actions in Ukraine. They are 100% reliant on aviation (they are air mobile not airborne anymore) which requires 100% control of the air. Russia has that area locked up well so not an actual threat.
We still haven’t seen any of the real EW weapons used yet in Ukraine. Plus an incursion into Ukraine would result in hypersonics taking out all the runways of US/NATO bases in Europe, shooting down of all AWACS, and also all US/UK military satellites. Russia has these capabilities. There are 18 LNG tankers sitting off the coast of Spain waiting to discharge their gas so are completely full and nice big juicy targets for Russian submarines. Lot’s of things can happen should any NATO forces actually go into Ukraine. Russia will not respond with nuclear as they simply don’t need to. The one hyper-sonic missile against Lyviv showed what even one can do alone and it shocked everyone.

Posted by: Old Microbiologist | Oct 25 2022 5:56 utc | 313

It,s time the UK, American politicians and their public felt the reality of war in their own countrys on their own soil effecting their own family.
Only then will they lose their sence of infalibilty and stop this unprovoked hostility toward Russia.
Until then this is just western Russian roulette.

Posted by: Mark2 | Oct 25 2022 6:09 utc | 314

I tend to think Gonzalo Lira has made a decent case that the US/UK dirty bomb/intervention plan is thus:
1) Currently 100,000 US troops are deployed to Europe in toto, with at least 4-5,000 101st Airborne Division within a few hundred kilometers of Odessa.
2) Nikalaev is being evacuated of civilians – not any other big city near the Russian lines, and on a direct route between Kherson and Odessa.
3) Set off a dirty bomb in Nicolaev.
4) Send the 101st in reinforce the Ukrainian forces in and around Odessa as a “peace-keeping, de-escalation, de-confliction” or whatever other BS excuse the US uses.
5) Twist Turkey’s arm to allow US reinforcing warships into the Black Sea. (This one I have some doubts about that Erdogan can be convinced to do this, especially since he is reportedly allowing Russian submarines to enter the Black Sea via the Dardanelles – but we’ll see.)
6) The radioactive area around Nicolaev inhibits any Russian push toward Odessa.
7) Romanian and Polish troops then enter Ukraine from the West in cooperation with Ukraine forces to seize western Ukraine and reinforce Odessa.
Now, before the howls start, obviously this plan has massive flaws in it. Some of them are:
1) Turkey may not cooperate in allowing NATO ships in – unless Erdogan can be convinced to go along with NATO.
2) Even if US warships are allowed by Turkey in the Black Sea, Russia won’t allow them and they have the means to sink any such ship, both missiles and submarines.
3) How is the 101st going to get to Odessa without being detected – even before takeoff – and having their helicopters (or transport aircraft) shot down by the Russians?
4) How is the US going to reinforce the forces in Odessa and keep them supplied against Russian air power without attacking Russian AD directly inside Ukraine and in the Black Sea?
5) If the US is unable to reinforce Odessa, how do they keep control once the Russian start whatever counter-offensive they develop to counter these moves?
6) Once Russia makes a counter-move, what does the US and NATO do? (Always ask the next question.)
There are obviously an absurd amount of unanswered questions in this scenario. Nonetheless the confluence of the presence of the 101st (regardless of whether they are as part of “normal rotation”, which is irrelevant – they’re there, which is all that matters), the evacuation of Nicolaev which is not on Russia’s radar as yet, and the possibility of the US seizing Odessa precisely to prevent Russia from land-locking Ukraine makes for a decent case.
The point is, it’s a stupid plan – which is exactly what the US and the neocons are known for, or haven’t you been paying attention for the last thirty years?
I’m inclined to think that Gonzalo is right in this case, and that Russia does have the goods on this dirty bomb plan. It’s either that or it’s one big Russian propaganda ploy, which I find doubtful because I can’t see the point of it if no dirty bomb ends up being exploded. Would Shoigu call his counterparts just to make a prediction that turns out false and is forgotten in the next week or two, like all the other “false flag” rumors we’ve seen repeatedly over the last ten months, since before the war started? What would be the point? We know Russia isn’t going to set off a dirty bomb or any other kind of nuke.
The other possibility is that the whole thing is a big CIA-MI6 propaganda ploy to paint the Russians as paranoid by allowing them to get bogus intel about a dirty bomb, raise a stink, accuse the Russians of planning it themselves, then it’s forgotten in two weeks when it doesn’t happen. Wouldn’t put it past the US and UK to do this, but again, this ends up being a meaningless ploy – which is also something the US, neocons and Ukraine are known for.
The idea is that this is all for the US mid-terms. But that applies both ways – if it’s a fake or if it’s real. If it’s a fake, it won’t help Biden. If it’s real, however, it becomes the “October surprise” everyone has been talking about. The Democrats may or may not get a poll bump if Biden can pull this off in the next two weeks. So if no bomb goes off in the next two weeks, we can assume the whole thing was another stupid propaganda and political ploy.
But what if a bomb does go off as a Biden-CIA-neocon-MI-6 “Hail Mary”? Something to think about. As Gonzalo says after every video, “Know what’s going on.”
2022.10.24 The Americans Are Evil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meBMKIe5d0M
2022.10.24 Why I Think This Is An American Plan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw84nOmGLcw

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 6:12 utc | 315

@ Old Microbiologist | Oct 25 2022 5:56 utc | 318 with the scenario about the goings on…thanks
It may fit well with my Reuters posting title about Russia taking the issue to the UN in some form…might be quite interesting UN meeting if what you are speculating is true…..the futures markets look a bit spooked tonight but it is the season….grin
I guess I also think the Russia is sharing what they know with their strategic partners fairly real time so many nations are in the know about the perfidy being attempted here by dying empire….everybody has skin in this game.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 25 2022 6:18 utc | 316

Marko @223….fuck off.
What a sad sack of shit you ar we.

Posted by: Sisofia | Oct 25 2022 6:37 utc | 317

… They either have to swallow it and just let the house of card collapse, and accept Russia will just demolish all their equipment with cheap drones pretty much invisible to radars. Or they will go “all in” to avoid the potentially bad effects of admitting defeat. That is why it’s so dangerous.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 24 2022 19:45 utc | 181

I am inclined to think that this dirty bomb plot is at least believably real and that it has been concocted and conducted precisely for RF to learn of its existence. As you imply, RF adoption of Geran enables them to quickly and cheaply demolish any static target in Ukraine, total UA collapse during the midterms is a distinct possibility.
I think this dirty bomb plot is plausible real, perhaps even an operational reality (it’s laughably simple from a practical standpoint, no harder than making a bomb to spread dog shit), but primarily an attempt to get RF on the back foot and regain control of the conflict tempo, which Geran has handed to to RF a plate. It might even be an attempt to force a ceasefire before RF gets any closer to Odessa.
Dirty bombs are easy to build and technically unstoppable, the only defense is the knowledge on the part of perpetrators and sponsors of the death-squad retribution that awaits them, that their own hair and teeth will be induced to fall out, followed by their eyes.
Punitive retribution is the only justice Empire understands.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2022 6:39 utc | 318

DaVinci | Oct 24 2022 19:20 utc | 172
“………will Sunak REALLY be PM or kept out of the loop in defence matters.”
Ben Wallace is remaining in the Defence post precisely so he can continue to control UK (->US IS) Ukraine war.
Wallace didn’t want the PM post…. Defence is the real power.
ranger | Oct 24 2022 19:24 utc | 174
When you hear the planes… consult Flightrader24 and maybe you can where they are headed…. Military is often, of course, “dark”, but it is surprising what OSINT is available.
unimperator | Oct 24 2022 19:45 utc | 181
“………There’s really no reason to assume they would perform any better, against Russian long range AD and AWACS and effective antitank weapons like Kornets…
Here’s a Finnish shiny new toy, looking a bit shabby….
(Sorry. Can’t re find the Finnish vid… instead..here’s Macedonian and Slovenian tanks. )
https://mobile.twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1583737300801835008?cxt=HHwWgMCi_eOryPorAAAA
Ed Nelson | Oct 24 2022 21:11 utc | 208
“……the point of a dirty bomb is to blame it on Russia,
[yep]
“Ukraine wants to bring in NATO and, if possible, US military forces to save it …
[yep]
…”The US and the EU also know this is going to happen and the dirty bomb is just an invitation, i.e. an excuse for any outside armed forces to enter the conflict directly and save Ukraine’s butt.
[yep]
Which is why placement of an array of chess pieces ~ such as the 101st in Romania ~ should be seen as part of a bigger game plan….. not just “Muh 101st can’t do shit”………
Go onto the @NATO and affiliated sites and see what “interoperability” drills have been conducted…..all year…(and last) ……
Orgel | Oct 24 2022 23:09 utc | 246
“……… doesn’t matter … how a dirty bomb is built and if its ingredients can be linked to Russia. We are well beyond these considerations. If the public believes in russians who attack their own……(gas pipeline)..nuclear powerplant (iconic bridges) dams ….. [the public will easily believe Russia “did it” with a newk]
Yep….
Skiffer | Oct 24 2022 23:29 utc | 249
They need a pretext to get NATO involved. Ukraine has failed.
The west fought Russia “to the last Ukrainian”.
NATO has declared Russia cannot be allowed to win. Therefore NATO now has to step in…
karlof1 | Oct 25 2022 0:51 utc | 270
“………Pentagon stopped Obama in Syria …and that they’ll need to stop Biden too.”
Obama then purged those guys from the military ….. there’s almost no one of that caliber and intellect and fortitude to thwart Biden….
Lex | Oct 25 2022 2:29 utc | 285
NATO entering the war would be a way to activate air assets and stand off missiles….. they don’t need a million men marching.
An aerial war is what NATO wants to fight…
And why it is confounded in Ukraine to date…. The premise is always that the US NATO own the skies….. and despite months of encountering Russian AD they just can’t let go of their belief in their air supremacy …..
Old Microbiologist | Oct 25 2022 5:56 utc | 318
“101st…..is just a rotation.”
But this is a designated “combat mission”….
I don’t think the 86th were tasked with entering Ukraine and fight Russians?
(“If necessary”)????
@US military barflies…. Would appreciate a definition of the difference when something is just a standard “overseas placement”… like to Germany and Romania (pick any one of 800+ options), …. and a designated “combat mission”.
Up until now, the US rhetoric has been to “partner” with NATO…. “Deter” Russia.
Now the rhetoric is to enter Ukraine and fight Russians?
And you’re saying….. “nah…it’s nothing”????
Interested in understanding why what seems a major escalation in rhetoric is so easily dismissed???

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 6:45 utc | 319

US aircraft carrier in Mediterranean
2022-10-25
https://min.news/en/military/0446156bd2aed591bdddaa7ae083b937.html
“The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict that has lasted for more than a month has brought serious challenges to the U.S. Navy, not only disrupting the orderly deployment of the U.S. Navy’s large surface ships, but also possibly constraining the U.S. military’s ability to deploy in other waters.
However, despite this, the weight of the US aircraft carrier battle group is still very heavy, and nearly a hundred fighters can be dispatched at one time, which constitutes an overwhelming advantage over the Russian army.
“………Analysts pointed out that the main purpose of the US deployment of aircraft carrier formations in the Mediterranean Sea is to contain Russia in the direction of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea and monitor the movements of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The U.S. military currently has about 40 ships of various types deployed in the Mediterranean Sea, which can support a medium-to-large-scale “assault operation” capability, and can dispatch hundreds of fighter jets at one time to launch violent air strikes on the Russian army on the Ukrainian battlefield.
In view of the Russian Black Sea The fleet’s equipment level is low, and the Russian military’s military strength in the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea is simply insufficient to form an effective deterrent.
The Russian side is at a disadvantage in confrontation at sea.
This is the main reason why the US military dispatches aircraft carriers in the Eastern Mediterranean.””
Noting that the rhetoric here^ is now about direct confrontation with Russia in Ukraine.
This ^ is a definite escalation from the rhetoric from Dec+Feb >>~ October.
Until now rhetoric has been about “assisting” Ukraine and “defending NATO” and “sending messages” “showing force” to “deter” Russia….
I’m finding it extremely confounding that US (military) barflies aren’t noting this…. ……Seems significant to me….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 7:00 utc | 320

🇬🇧🇺🇦 Ukrainians are afraid of the transfer of new Arash-2 UAVs to Russia
Oleksandr Musiyenko is a Ukrainian head of the military research center.
In an interview with TSN, he suggested that Iran could transfer Arash-2 drones to Russia, capable of hitting not only stationary targets, like the Shahed-136, but also air defense systems.
▪️Arash-2 UAVs have a declared range of up to 2000 km.
▪️Cruising speed – up to 100km/h.
Arash-2 can be equipped with optical and thermal imaging scanners to capture various types of targets.
This allows him to change direction several times before hitting the target. One of its main tasks is to suppress air defense systems.
Since they are so confident in the supply, let them come up with new witty names for our funds.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16533

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:01 utc | 321

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is transferring to the Svatovo-Kremennaya sector a reinforcement and a reserve of a group of mercenaries (Poles, Romanians, Britons) to replenish the regular units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that were defeated there. It is too early to say that they are preparing a “fist” for an offensive there.
Most likely, they are trying to neutralize the risks of weakening in that area of ​​​​the front, in order to avoid our counter-attacks.
Judging by the intelligence and information of the prisoners, the dill are preparing to winter. Overgrown with warm clothes and heaters.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16538

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:03 utc | 322

The storming of Bakhmut continues.
Units continue to target the enemy to the south and east of the town.
In addition, the area of the industrial zone, where the militants have entrenched, is being worked on. The video shows the arrivals and the aftermath of the air raids on the asphalt plant, from where the Ukrainians are trying to dislodge the Wagner units from their occupied positions on the territory of the asphalt plant.
Along with this, the Orchestra’s stormtroopers are moving forward, including from the southeastern part of the Bakhmut area.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16541

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦👻 Ukrainian Fake News Refuted – Asphalt Plant at #Bakhmut⚡️
I have been asked about the Khohols’ grunt, saying that they knocked the Wagners out of the asphalt plant near #Artemovsk (#Bakhmut) – good riddance. I thought it was just nonsense myself, but the Khokhols carried out a whole information operation. A friend involved in OSINT told me the following:
“The AFU posted a video of the SINIAT plant and pretended as if they had taken it from the Wagners, although the Wagners were not there. And then other Khokhols confused SINIAT and the asphalt plant, and started celebrating that they had knocked the Wagners out of the asphalt plant and pushed them away from Artomovsk.”
On the map the blue circled SINIAT, the red the asphalt plant.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16537

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:06 utc | 323

Perhaps am full of hopium; but perhaps with the excepted changes in the midterms and with sunak as the PM with no ukraine baggage associated with him this could be the collective west deciding to end the hot war in the ukraine; at least for awhile as some people think there are know negotiations beginning to occur as per military summary latest video. the true ukraine losses are coming out and they are extreme .
https://rumble.com/v1plhot-rishi-sunaks-turn-as-prime-minister.html
https://rumble.com/v1pmj8h-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-24.10.2022.html
i believe gonzalo thinks different with his last 3 videos.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa6Kdqw2zP6r0QnIxCAsUvw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw84nOmGLcw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meBMKIe5d0M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdqR-XMvbS4
my spider sense tells me the next month this situation will either go kinetic red hot with direct NATO – RUSSIAN confrontation after a major NATO nuclear false flag to start it off or cool right off with a cease fire agreement akin to the 1953 one between north and south korea that has lasted to this day. the hopium in me hopes for a cease fire with the sanctions lifted and a repair of nordstream.
———————————————————————-
https://vk.com/wall-109305109_67461?lang=en
More than 300,000 dead – OSINT investigators called real irretrievable losses during the SVO in the Ukrainian army.
The irretrievable losses of the APU as of October 20, 2022 amounted to 402,000 people, of which 387,000 were killed. Losses among mercenaries and volunteers from Poland, the Baltic States, Romania amounted to 54,000 of them killed 31,240 people. These are the OSINT data, calculated using the reports of funeral agencies, extracts from morgues, as well as the results of the analysis of radio, cellular and satellite exchange of forces of the Armed Forces.
The media also reported that the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers of Ukraine allegedly prepared more than 320,000 appeals “about the fate of missing fighters”, but the SBU banned them from filing for national security purposes – however, these widespread data have no documentary evidence. Their source is the statements of a number of members of the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, made orally and in social networks.
At the same time, these statistics can be compared with the estimates of losses made by the Western military.
In particular, the former deputy head of the US European Command, Stephen Twitty, said in an interview with Linke Zeitung that ” 200,000 fighters somehow mysteriously disappeared from the Armed Forces, and no one will say where they are today ” . “Ukraine’s armed forces … lost tens and tens of thousands killed and wounded, the Ukrainians paid a terrible price,” said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
“Ukraine loses 6,000 soldiers every month, which is 12 times more than America lost in Vietnam,” said retired colonel and veteran ex-senator Richard Black. However, during the discussion of his statement, experts came to a more significant figure of 15,000 to 20,000 killed AFU soldiers per month.
Estimates of the losses of the armed formations of Ukraine, made by the Russian side – a little less. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had “more than 100,000 casualties, with 61,207 dead and 49,368 wounded.” OSINT investigators also assessed the Russian losses as comparable to one of the phases of the Chechen campaigns of the 1990s and 1990s. Statistical specialists, however, tend to consider the irretrievable losses of Ukraine “close to 300,000 people”.
Losses of volunteer formations at this point, however, it is impossible to accurately assess, experts say.
See original
——————-
https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2022/10/23/osint-investigators-name-real-losses-of-ukraines-army
Spread the Word
OSINT (open-source intelligence) investigators have named real irretrievable losses of Ukraine’s army. As of 20 October 2022, according to OSINT, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost 402,000 people, of whom 387,000 were killed.
Losses among mercenaries and volunteers from Poland, the Baltics and Romania totaled 54,000, with 31,240 killed.
These are OSINT figures calculated using funeral agency summaries, morgue extracts and analysis of radio, cellular and satellite exchanges of AFU forces. @RTRDonetsk
The German publication ZEITUNG.DE citing American military experts, including retired representatives of the US Army command, says that the number of deaths among the Armed Forces of Ukraine is over 200 thousand people, or 15-20 thousand monthly. #Ukraine
——————————–
https://seemorerocks.is/ukrainian-battle-losses-revealed/
The overall pattern is unmistakable, whatever the NATO spin barrage. Ukrainian losses are becoming exponential – as many as 1,500 killed or wounded each day, everyday. If there are 50,000 Ukrainians in the several Donbass cauldrons, they will be gone by the end of June. Ukraine must have lost as many as 20,000 soldiers in and around Mariupol …
——————————-
We should keep in mind during ww1 on the 1st day of the battle of the somme with far less sophisticated weapons the brits&French had 59,070 casulties of which 19,240 brits were KIA and the defending germans 10,200 casulties. I suspect this 6 to 1 casulty ratio is probably close to the actual casulty ratio between the ukrainian army plus mercs to the russian army plus donbass militia, checkens and wagner guys since the conflict began.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1022431/casualty-statistics-first-day-battle-somme-1916/
cheers ralph
PS. my prayer is let some peace prevail so millions do not freeze or starve to death in the world this winter which includes north america.

Posted by: ralph | Oct 25 2022 7:06 utc | 324

Ukrainian TG-channel “Legitimny” writes:
“While everyone is busy with the topic of a nuclear dirty bomb, we will warn the society that it is no longer possible to cancel what officials want to hide from society, constantly shifting emphasis.
Rising unemployment.
There are no real jobs right now. The real unemployment rate is 70%, but according to government statistics, it is only 30%. They probably consider all those mobilized to be employed as well.
About what it says. The economy of Ukraine began to die already from the inside. There is no money circulation (as in the human body of blood circulation) – this leads to economic slow death.
Therefore, the puppet of the Office of the President, Prime Minister Shmygal, is blackmailing the West that if he does not give money, then pensioners and state employees of Ukraine will be left without maintenance.
Yes, he is right, but as usual, they are shifting their responsibility for what is happening, either to their enemies, the Russians, or to the Europeans, who are gradually starting to freeze from financing this “feast on blood”.
Conclusion: everything flies in a full pipe. The country will feel the real consequences only in 4-6 months, they cannot even be stopped. Even if the military case freezes, the fall will be strong. It’s just that with the ongoing war, we will constantly update the bottom, and the rate of 100 hryvnia for $ 1 will no longer be so fantastic.
Take care of yourself and get ready not only for this difficult winter, but also for the difficult hungry and cold 2023-2024. After a war, hunger always comes.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16552

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:07 utc | 325

🇺🇲🇺🇦 United States is considering sending Ukraine an anti-aircraft missile system HAWK.-Reuters

https://t.me/intelslava/39966

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:09 utc | 326

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 7:00 utc | 325
I suspect you are right, but I am hoping you are wrong.

Posted by: watcher | Oct 25 2022 7:14 utc | 327

@ Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 6:45 utc | 324
Up until now, the US rhetoric has been to “partner” with NATO…. “Deter” Russia.
Now the rhetoric is to enter Ukraine and fight Russians?
And you’re saying….. “nah…it’s nothing”????
Interested in understanding why what seems a major escalation in rhetoric is so easily dismissed???

That is a good point, but I doubt that it’ll change anything on the battlefield. Rhetoric is harmless, and NATO is allowed to do its ‘haka’.
I do not get why would anyone on the RF side would be afraid of some 5000 101 Airborne super-duper soldiers?
They are there, all right, doing some field exercises, learning from observing RF armed forces tactics and performance. Protecting Romania and NATO’s borders. All well.
I do not see that as an escalation at all.
Where escalation is happening at the moment is in SIGINFO world, as it seems secure NATO lines and comms are compromised and that uncovers the internal clash of spy vs. military vs. civilian on the NATO side.
Confusion is very possible in complex workings of such big organization and many back-forth channels, also influenced by many conflicting interests.
I am sure that they now project a panic mode and are not in sync – as in planning, prioritising, executing and overall performing in unison.
Shoigu was right to phone all the ‘strategic partners’ to let them know that they know what is happening. And that is might be seen as an escalation, too.
Militarily, escalation will be only brought up by RF pending on their goals that actually nobody really knows, but only assumes.
Will they go to take Odessa? Nobody knows.
Will they go to surround Kiev? Nobody knows.
What is the plan between Belarus and RF? Are they going to pour down to isolate West from East in Ukraine? Nobody knows.
So it all comes to the same assumption – will it further escalate?
We do not know, but assume it is possible.
And there will be no nukes.

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 25 2022 7:34 utc | 328

Incompetence by Russia keeps on…
No protection in LPR
“Ukrainian military fires eight HIMARS rockets at LPR territory in past day”
https://tass.com/defense/1526949
No protection in Donetsk
“Ukraine fires eight shells, including from Grad MLRS, at Donetsk in nine minites”
https://tass.com/defense/1526961
7 explosions in Melitopol
“Massive explosions heard in Melitopol — administration”
https://tass.com/emergencies/1526937

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 25 2022 7:49 utc | 329

Kiev regime does not hesitate to kill children and old people and destroy civilian infrastructure, and Russia’s answer to this is weak, if their shells are striking our regions then their cities should be wiped out – Ramzan Kadyrov.
Kuleba spoke with Blinky and the conclusion was they are working to stop Russia’s nuclear blackmail
Car bomb today at Zaporozhye TV building, 5 wounded.

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 7:50 utc | 330

Here’s another fun idea for everyone to think about…
What if Ukraine is building a dirty bomb with the intent of blowing up the dam in Kherson region and flood the region with radioactive water?
How they get the bomb there and whether it is powerful enough to breach the dam is of course problematic, but who knows what the plan might be?
It’s what I would do if I were Ukraine. Why blow up Nicolaev on the way to Odessa when you can irradiate Kherson and force the Russians to retreat to Crimea? All the while blaming Russia for the bomb and as a cherry on top claim the Russians were incompetent and blew themselves up? After all, the Western media has been claiming this for months, that the Russians are incompetent, dumb, etc.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 7:54 utc | 331

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 7:03 utc | 327
One thing I wonder about mercenaries – do they know/are they told that they are not “reinforcements” but actually “replacements” and the next front wave of attack? My guess people are after the easy money and don’t want to die – they aren’t being told what happened to predecessors. Each to their own.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 7:59 utc | 332

Misc reports via TG-
For the second time, the Indian Foreign Ministry strongly advises its citizens who are in Ukraine to leave the country as soon as possible – The Indian Foreign Ministry recommends that Indians in Ukraine leave for neighboring countries as soon as possible, the Economic Times newspaper reports.
A terrorist attack done by Dawlat al-Ukraini took place near the building of the Zaporozhye regional TV company “Atv” in Melitopol.According to preliminary information,a car bomb exploded. The building is badly damaged.5 people were injured.The TV and radio company was chosen for a reason: Ukrainian saboteurs of Dawlat al-Ukraini are purposefully trying to intimidate media employees and create chaos in the territories controlled by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
A member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation said that the explosion near the ZaTV office occurred at the moment when the journalists were going to work. According to him, the studio suffered significant damage.
NATO announced the transfer of additional contingents of American, Spanish and French troops to Romanian territory to strengthen the eastern flank.
Large AFU forces have been moving across the Oskol River from Izyum to Rubtsy. Probably for the first time in the war the bulk of the troops are represented by Poles and Polish equipment. You can’t hear the Ukrainian language behind the Polish speech. Pshek is moving towards Borovaya and Krasny Liman. Kiev could be preparing an attack on Svatovo, throwing an untouchable reserve into battle.
Russia requested a discussion in the UN Security Council on October 25 about the situation with the impending provocation of Kiev using a “dirty nuclear bomb”.

Some passing wisdoms of Caitlin Johnstone
Friendly reminder that saying a nation’s economic model is a failure because your nation was able to use economic warfare to impoverish that nation is like saying your personal philosophy is better than your neighbor’s because you beat him unconscious in his driveway.
If discussing facts and criticizing the foreign aggressions of the most powerful government in the world is taboo, you might be ruled by tyrants and surrounded by their brainwashed human livestock.
It’s absolutely insane how literally ANY criticism of the indisputable well-documented western provocations in Ukraine gets shouted down and raged at. You’re only allowed to say this war is completely unprovoked and began solely because Vladimir Putin is evil and hates freedom.
Criticizing the extensively documented western aggressions that led to this war is not the same as saying the invasion is good or that Vladimir Putin is a wonderful person. If this isn’t obvious to you, it’s because US propaganda has turned your brain into soup. Hope that helps
https://nitter.net/caitoz

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 25 2022 8:03 utc | 333

Here’s another fun idea: Ukraine already got a truck bomb onto the Kerch bridge. What if they manage to do it again with a dirty bomb? Or by some other delivery meachanism?
Irradiating the bridge – even just a portion of it which is what a truck bomb would do, depending on the winds – would screw that up nicely, interrupting Russian logistics, forcing Russia to resort to the ferries and complicating Crimea logistics for Crimean residents.
Needless to say, it would be a massive propaganda victory for Ukraine. And if the Western media spun it as Russia incompetently transporting a nuclear weapon to Ukraine, well, what can one say? More idiotic claims have been made in this war.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:04 utc | 334

whirlX | Oct 25 2022 7:34 utc | 333
Thanks for your reply…
I’m not as sanguine as some here❗️
—————
The rationale for the dirty bomb…. The US intends to escalate…..
David Petraeus just stated a “multinational force” led by the US may intervene in Ukraine…..
Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus
Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’
The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.
He told ABC News: “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.”
Asked if the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine would bring America and Nato into the war, Petraeus said that it would not be a situation triggering the alliance’s Article 5, which calls for a collective defense. That is because Ukraine is not part of Nato – nonetheless, a “US and Nato response” would be in order, Petraeus said.
David Petraeus: US May Lead Multinational Force Against Russia in Ukraine
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/10/david-petraeus-us-may-lead-multinational-force-russia-ukraine/
in an interview with L’Express from France, David Petraeus stated a “multinational force” led by the US may intervene in Ukraine.
“We are talking about the intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance in the event of an attack on one of the NATO members. But it is necessary to consider the option of using not NATO forces in Ukraine, but multinational forces that have nothing to do with NATO,” Petraeus said.
Gateway Pundit quotes RT:
“…… Washington might form a new coalition of the willing in such a scenario and use it instead of NATO, Petraeus, who also briefly served as the CIA director, believes.
“Russia could take some actions in Ukraine that would be “so shocking and so horrific” that it would prompt a response from the US and other nations, he said, adding that they “might react in one way or another, but as a multinational force led by the US and not as a NATO force.”

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 8:07 utc | 335

The Ukraine dilemma would depend on what Rishi Sunak would say or not say about Ukraine at about 11:30 today, UK time. If he says that the economic problem in the UK is all Putin’s fault, as did Boris the clown and Liz the dumb, then nothing practically had changed. Otherwise, the country’s policy will be more inward directed. Let’s see, if Ben Wallace stays as the defense minister. If not, the foreign policy is changed. Then, Rishi won’t have the Zelensky curse.
Right now, budget food prices in the UK had gone up by more than 17%, making the general public poorer.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 8:16 utc | 336

unimperator | Oct 25 2022 7:59 utc | 337
I think most of them don’t know. Some are nazis from other countries, lots of videos for that. Some are terrorists collected from Syria and other places. And regular soldiers from natoland, more or less for the money.
The population has no idea about their losses either. Since they weren’t affected by anything, until recently, they had zero contact with any war. Party all day long. Even now their problems with power are too few to change anything. Baldie guy stopped too soon. And he isn’t taking advantage of the situation in any way, just sit and do nothing. And after that disaster first interview about difficult decisions he probably will be changed very soon.
All tv stations, the internet they see, shows great successes. All Western leaders telling them they’re winning, free money and weapons forever. Official number is 9k dead and I bet most of them believe it. I’ve seen a bit of protest about missing people in nazi wives community. It’s so funny

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 8:17 utc | 337

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:04 utc | 339
The bridge is a confined, controlled area of known material composition.
It can be effectively scrubbed with available decontamination technology.
Dirty bombs are really only effective when the environment acts to amplify the effect.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 25 2022 8:19 utc | 338

Ok, gonna call it here. Nothing re. Nato participation happens, SMO will continue like this for 4-6 months, Nato will send a few old junk Leopard tanks, some F-15 / F-16s, Russia builds more forts and more or less holds out.
The Ukraine economy crashes and 5 million people will rush to Germany after lucrative factory jobs caused by the new economic boom.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 8:23 utc | 339

Melaleuca @ 325

Until now rhetoric has been about “assisting” Ukraine and “defending NATO” and “sending messages” “showing force” to “deter” Russia… I’m finding it extremely confounding that US (military) barflies aren’t noting this…. ……Seems significant to me

Not just this Mediterranean forces wording but all the current statements coming out of DoD regarding forces in EU are all about “deterring” Russia. This isn’t used as in Cold War “deterring” that is maintaining the status quo, but is now hot war “deterring” that is “roll back” as in Korea and Vietnam – only it’s not war by proxies now it’s direct, USA vs Russia. We are a missive or two away from “deterring” being changed to “fighting”.
Add the miles of trenches and dragon’s teeth place around Belgorod and Kursk and it’s hard not to see the early stages of positioning in a WW3 that has already started.
Might as well add in that what Melaleuca noticed in the DoD phrasing w/ regard to Russia is mirrored with China, it’s not deter as in Cold war deter but deter as a synonym for fight.
It’s about getting the masses to accept the concept first, then coming clear with the wording. Then making it fact.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 25 2022 8:24 utc | 340

Listening to Mercouris’ video today.
He bends over backwards assuming that the Western militaries found out that Ukraine was planning a dirty bomb, and thus Ben Wallace went to the US, and then everyone called everyone and he assumes they then all called Ukraine to tell Ukraine not to do it.
He overlooks the part of the Russian MoD report which said that Russia had intel that Ukraine was in contact with the UK for assistance in constructing the dirty bomb.
Let’s consider the Ben Wallace visit to Washington. Supposedly Wallace explained his personal visit as due to the idea that the communications between Washington and the UK were being “compromised” and that the purpose of his visit was to alert the Pentagon about Ukraine’s dirty bomb. He does wonder why Wallace would admit such an intelligence breach, which leads me to consider the following.
There’s another alternative explanation which is more sinister. It is that the UK was assisting Ukraine in constructing a dirty bomb, that the Russians picked up on this either from a mole in Ukraine or a mole in the British MoD, and then the UK discovered the plan was blown, and thus Wallace rushes to Washington to warn the neocons that the plan has been exposed.
After Shoigu calls the four Defense Ministries to complain about the Ukraine plan, the ministries get together and deny the whole thing, thus distancing themselves from the event if an when it happens.
I think assuming everyone called Ukraine and begged them not to do it is naive in the extreme on Mercouris’ part. But he tends to be a “softy” and frequently finds it hard to believe that people are as big asshats as they actually are – even the neocons.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:28 utc | 341

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 7:59 utc | 337
They are lied to like everyone else. There have been several posts on TG from Western mercenaries who escaped from Ukraine as what they were told was happening and was actually happening were two completely different things and they decided to speak up about it to warn others.
Also, I think there is a fanatical/hatred component from Eastern European mercenaries (Georgia/Poland etc.) who don’t care about the overall geopolitical consequences of the Ukraine conflict but are just there to kill as many Russians as they can before they die.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 8:30 utc | 342

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 25 2022 8:19 utc | 343
Yes, but how long will that take? It also depends on where the radioactive material drifts to – it won’t likely be confined to the bridge depending on the environmental conditions and how the bomb is delivered.
And it also doesn’t preclude the propaganda victory for Ukraine, even if they deny they did it.
So it doesn’t help to diminish the effect when we don’t know the consequences of what effect does occur, both environmentally, militarily and politically.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:31 utc | 343

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 8:07 utc | 340
I think that Petraeus is clearly indicating what at least one faction of the military is thinking. Mind you he is thinking Iraq, which sort of worked to ruin Iraq but not long term so well. Obviously it will be impossible to get all of NATO into the fight – Neither Turkey nor Hungary would be in it and I would think Bulgaria and Moldova would be thinking hard.
The problem is that the idea would be to avoid directly hitting Russia, so any retaliation would be on Ukrainian soil. I very much doubt Russia would go along with this and it seems to me Russia has today been signalling that UK is in its firing line, given their evidence of the attack of the bridge involving UK. indeed if Russia has actual evidence of this that would stand up in a court, then it is arguable that Russia could attack the UK, without triggering a NATO response.

Posted by: watcher | Oct 25 2022 8:33 utc | 344

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:28 utc | 346
One has to wonder the possibility that the IRA would get a dirty bomb? Or perhaps the Mexican Drug cartels. There’s no difference at all.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 8:34 utc | 345

… FACT – Ukraine is an active warzone. Any military forces that enter are subject to attack by the opposing force. If U.S. troops enter they will be attacked, unless they are fighting under Russian command. …
The clownworld is alive and well here at MoA.
Posted by: Maxx | Oct 25 2022 3:22 utc | 298

You mean like US forces in Syria that oversee the continued theft of Syrian oil and wheat? Can you think of any reason why RF, even under those circumstances, demurred from a direct confrontation with US forces? Go on. give it a try, clownface. When you’ve done, you might have an idea of how the 101st. could be used as a token double-dare-you blocking force or to menace Transnistria.
All the rest I don’t know one way or the other but you sure-as-shit don’t know either.
Thanks to PavewayIV for valued contributions.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2022 8:34 utc | 346

Posted by: watcher | Oct 25 2022 8:33 utc | 349
Luckily for us, Petraeus is a nobody and represents nothing except his own fried brain, nowadays.But clearly there is a risk. The US plan is to destroy Russia and thereafter China.
My bet is not on Ukraine, but Transnistria. If you look at what’s going on in Moldova – pretty big riots against Maia Sandu and cost of living crisis. Maia Sandu is putting rioters in jail and weeding out any thought resistance. They were already talking about “mobilization in Moldova” if / when the Russians advance closer to Odessa. There were some who think Moldova will get swallowed up by Romania.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 8:42 utc | 347

🇷🇺🇺🇦❄️ The onset of winter will change the course of Russia’s SMO in Ukraine
The Wall Street Journal is sounding the alarm – they talked to the Ukrainian military, who said that in winter their troops could become more vulnerable:
“On the battlefield, the commander of one of the Ukrainian units in the east of the country said that in winter it would be much more difficult for his soldiers to hide. In the snow, Ukrainian vehicle tracks would be visible to Russian drones and could be used to pinpoint the exact location of the soldiers. In addition, if the soldiers light a fire to keep warm, they will also be noticed.”
Mykola Beleskov, a consultant with the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine, also confirmed that hiding in winter would be much more difficult:
“We cannot fight the way we used to, in spring and summer. Moreover, Ukraine will need additional fuel to keep Ukrainian equipment from breaking down.”

https://t.me/intelslava/39974

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 8:49 utc | 348

German President Steinmeier is in Kiev.

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 8:52 utc | 349

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 6:12 utc | 320
Excellent post. However, I disagree with this:
“So if no bomb goes off in the next two weeks, we can assume the whole thing was another stupid propaganda and political ploy.”
No, I don’t think we can assume that. Imo, if no bomb goes off in the next two weeks it’s simply because Ukraine/West decided not to deploy it for one reason or another. One such reason could be the calls made by Russia to the various foreign ministries warning them of the severe consequences should it be deployed. Lack of bomb deployment doesn’t equate to lack of bomb (or lack of plot to build one),

Posted by: Jax | Oct 25 2022 8:53 utc | 350

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 8:49 utc | 353
Correct – drone guided artillery, drone and air strikes become much more effective. The terrain suddenly turns more “target rich”.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 25 2022 8:54 utc | 351

The West wants to provide assistance to Ukraine for decades, we are talking about the Marshall plan of the XXI century – Scholz
There would be consequences for Russia if it uses a so-called “dirty bomb” or any other nuclear weapon – Ned Price

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 8:55 utc | 352

watcher | Oct 25 2022 8:33 utc | 349
if Russia has actual evidence of this that would stand up in a court, then it is arguable that Russia could attack the UK, without triggering a NATO response.
Agree.
Only…..parts of NATO (and Eu) are salivating at the idea of “boys, we going in yeeeeeehaaaaa!”.
So, they’d ignore Article 5 if it suited….. or … there’s now…and some are even attempting to conflate Article5 with Ukraine, which of course isn’t NATO,
As I replied to karlof1 above, the sober Pentagon military minds got purged after they thwarted Obama in Syria….. a few were still around to caution Trump not to escalate with Iran, after he assassinated Soleimani….
Petraeus is of course speaking for the CIA, and they’ve been dicking around in Ukraine for a half century now… Some of these guys have been wanting a Mano a Mano with Russia since they were spermatozoa in their grandfather’s sac. it’s literally their DNA.
I see that the language changed very recently… about the time talk picked up about a dirty bomb….. and the Petraeus interview shows they are connecte

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 8:57 utc | 353

@ PavewayIV | Oct 25 2022 2:53 utc | 291
thanks… understand what you are saying and webb is sort of getting at.. it is a possible way of ending this basically – over some nightmarish thing basically… i can’t see it myself.. i wish i could… i see this as a long agonizing war as opposed to a short one at this point… i might have to revise my viewpoint come spring..
@ Maxx | Oct 25 2022 3:22 utc | 298
people are just offering ideas here and speculating… why the hostile attitude or am i misreading you?
Posted by: james | Oct 25 2022 4:02 utc | 307
Of course you are misreading him james. I am surprised, I thought you are a reasonable guy. He is disagreeing in a very polite way. I guess people are losing it due to the uncertainty of the situation.

Posted by: RB | Oct 25 2022 9:10 utc | 354

@Mark | Oct 25 2022 4:04 utc | 308

I remember from the screaming-headline stories on Litvinenko’s death that traces of Polonium 210 were found all over London – including, among other places, the fax machine at Boris Berzovsky’s place. But neither of the two alleged Russian assassins were ever there. Litvinenko was, but as the above provides, Polonium 210’s alpha particles are weak and cannot penetrate the skin. Presumably that means either way; from the inside as well as the outside. Litvinenko was allegedly poisoned by drinking it, in tea. But now it’s inside Litvinenko, and presumably cannot get out. How did it get on the fax machine at Berzovsky’s place? How did it get all over the car in which Litvinenko was traveling with Scaramella, but where the two alleged assassins had never been? Was Litvinenko licking these things?

The polonium came from the “Polonium Letter from Hell”, that Scaramella gave to Litvinenko in a London restaurant.
The use of polonium in the assassination does not prove a state actor was involved. The same amount of polonium was found in any film laboratory in the alpha particle sources used for removing static charge from film.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 25 2022 9:13 utc | 355

Liz Truss in her parting speech in front of 10, Downing Street did mention Ukraine and Putin’s “aggression.” And, hoped that Rishi would do so. Well?

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 9:20 utc | 356

8 months of winning: Ukrainian military is shelling Donetsk and multiple other settlements since early morning and hasn’t stopped yet. 155mm and 152mm shells.

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 9:32 utc | 357

By continuing destruction of energy facilities Russia can defeat Ukraine and the collective West very soon.
But Russia is afraid to do that.

Posted by: marko | Oct 25 2022 9:33 utc | 358

Those arguing about the lethality of a ‘dirty bomb’ are missing the point. The yield, or radiological potency of the device is irrelevant. The danger is that it points to Russia … a country with 1500 nuclear weapons aimed at us. Russia’s road mobile ICBM’s have left their bases and are roaming the countryside … this is the first time they’ve ever done this where it wasn’t a planned exercise.
There is no such thing as a limited nuclear war. The idea that one side fires off a couple of nukes in retaliation or as an indication of something is ridiculous. You have to launch an all out nuclear strike or nothing because a limited strike opens you up to a massive retaliation where you lose all your missiles. The only possible way to ‘win’ a nuclear war is with a massive sucker punch and hope your missile defence and attack subs can tale care of the SLBM’s.

Posted by: Dave_k | Oct 25 2022 9:34 utc | 359

“General Michael ‘Erik’ Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, conducted a visit aboard the USS West Virginia [top], a U.S. Navy Ohio-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine at an undisclosed location at sea in international waters in the Arabian Sea” 19/10/22
This was a widely overlooked event. John Helmer speculates how the ‘dirty bomb’ allegations and subsequent flurry of military to military calls and activity may be related to it, speculating on some of the more worrying implications of what potentially is being discussed behind the scenes.
http://johnhelmer.org/the-us-signals-readiness-to-launch-nuclear-strike-against-russia/

Posted by: Et Tu | Oct 25 2022 9:36 utc | 360

… I think assuming everyone called Ukraine and begged them not to do it is naive in the extreme on Mercouris’ part. But he tends to be a “softy” and frequently finds it hard to believe that people are as big asshats as they actually are – even the neocons.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 8:28 utc | 346

Interesting points, thank you. Agreed that it’s almost a given that Ukraine would have to have someone’s approval for anything as provocative as dirty bomb, it’s not credible to suppose otherwise without specific evidence. Those rotten skanks always know which side of their bread the butter is on.
Wallace’s visit does beg a believable explanation … the idea that their off-books scheme was blown and he couldn’t use official channels to strategise with neocon mutants is plausible.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 25 2022 9:44 utc | 361

What those foreign ministers don’t say openly is what Shoigu had exactly told them or threatened them with.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 9:49 utc | 362

rk @357

The West wants to provide assistance to Ukraine for decades, we are talking about the Marshall plan of the XXI century – Scholz

The Marshall Plan was in a planned Keynesian high growth full employment postwar economy where the USA invested its money in order to recycle the surplus while preventing the repeat of post WW1 errors and the spread of Communism in the western EU. Win-win at the time.
Now try a Marshall Plan in a neoliberal economy structured on high unemployment, built in austerity, financialized asset inflation rather than real economic growth, off-shored production of the real economy, and petro-dollar recycling of ‘other people’s’ surpluses. Either the plan is to finally abandon neo-liberaism (yeh, right!) or these idiots actually believe their own bullshit and Scholz has his head so far up his ass he can see daylight.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 25 2022 10:08 utc | 363

What those foreign ministers don’t say openly is what Shoigu had exactly told them or threatened them with.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 9:49 utc | 368
I do not see them being afraid.
They all pledge to support Ukraine endlessly.
On the contrary. Russia is afraid.

Posted by: marko | Oct 25 2022 10:10 utc | 364

The goal of the European Union is not to freeze, but to confiscate Russian assets in Europe, but for this it is necessary to prepare a legal framework – Ursula

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 10:17 utc | 365

anon2020 @ 367

Agreed that it’s almost a given that Ukraine would have to have someone’s approval for anything as provocative as dirty bomb, it’s not credible to suppose otherwise without specific evidence. Those rotten skanks always know which side of their bread the butter is on.

In this case the use of a dirty bomb is specifically strategic rather than tactical. Like hell Ukraine would be allowed, or allow itself, a strategic move w/o orders from on high, not even UK but USA. Sure, maybe, deviant services in UKR and UK trying to force the hand of the emperor but that’s fantasy, the dirty tricks are played among themselves, otherwise the vassals live in abject fear and admiration of the emperor.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 25 2022 10:20 utc | 366

The European Union will provide Ukraine with 1 billion euros and 400 electric generators for the urgent restoration of energy supply – Ursula
I offer to donate my bicycle dynamo. As long as you don’t stop, there is light!

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 10:24 utc | 367

Federal President Steinmaier from Germany in Kyiv.
And strangely, NO drone attacks.
Should someone say that there was no agreement between Berlin and the Kremlin.
2 times postponed the visit for security reasons….. now you have probably phoned ???

Posted by: Mo3 | Oct 25 2022 10:25 utc | 368

The Ukraine dilemma would depend on what Rishi Sunak would say or not say about Ukraine
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 8:16 utc | 341
What do you think? In March he said this:
“I urge asset owners and managers to think very carefully about any investment that could somehow support Putin and his regime. Diplomatically, politically, economically, and also militarily, this barbaric adventure of Vladimir Putin must end in failure”

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 10:29 utc | 369

Posted by: marko | Oct 25 2022 10:10 utc | 370
Let’s see if the dirty bomb is actually deployed, shall we? If it is, you will be correct to say they weren’t afraid of Russian threats of retaliation. If, on the other hand, they don’t deploy it, then there were indeed afraid of Russian retaliation and you will be proven wrong. In that case, The West were afraid.

Posted by: Jax | Oct 25 2022 10:31 utc | 370

Peskov: “The head of the US Defense Ministry, Lloyd Austin, showed a frivolous and impermissible approach, rejecting Russia’s warnings about the possible use of a “dirty bomb” by Kiev”

Posted by: rk | Oct 25 2022 10:37 utc | 371

The retaliation, if happens, will be in one or all of those countries, and not in the Ukraine. So, the collective (official) response to the MSM press by those ‘foreign’ ministers.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 10:38 utc | 372

Forward Operating Base Poland.
7-8 plane loads of troops flew in since Saturday…
According to Monkeywerx OSINT
Jump to 29mins45secs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76AryZfvxIY
Comments:
>I’m outside Louisville KY…we have had more crazy stuff in the sky the last couple weeks than I’ve ever seen before. It was so obvious that even “normies” looked confused.
> was with 10th MD when I served in the Army. I was a member of the 4th brigade that was actually stationed in Fort Polk, LA (we joked and called it 10th Swamp Division) .. It has since been de-commissioned, back in 2014 I believe.. But I will say this – if they’re moving 10th MD troops around, they’re getting ready for something.
> my boss said that he saw trains running armor east this weekend at Perry la-compton thats upper north west of Lawrence KS. If we moving armor we are getting set for war. Saw it back in the 90s and 2001
> Lots of fighters up around Jax Fl. Don’t ever see that many, just an observation.
> Saturday night about 6 of Cargoaire airlines 747 8 , took off from different locations , Eastern half of US and were all in a line going to Luxembourg
> am in Central Arkansas. Usually C130 fly two to three at a time. Today was five running routes at a time
> Yes the frequency has increased 3-4 times a day in my area as well instead of twice a day in north central.
> live in Az in the west valley close to the US 60. Ive been seeing a lot of military vehicles being shipped. Yesterday and today I saw 2 large military vehicles being hauled on the back of semis. Anyone else seeing this, Any ideal where they are headed?
> I see them traveling on US 60 that heads towards Las Vegas. They are very large military vehicles unlike any that I have seen before.
And many many more.
So… It’s all just “business as usual “ ?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 10:44 utc | 373

Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmygal said that “the effectiveness of the German IRIS-T air defense system in intercepting missiles is 90%”
Take that as confirmation the system sucks.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 25 2022 10:49 utc | 374

A two-fer | two front war is always the best option…..right?
Japan Undertakes Biggest Military Buildup Since WWII; ‘Landmark’ Moment in Pacific History Underway
Amid fear of what China might do in the coming years, Japan is reaching out to turn a former enemy into an ally while increasing its military spending.
On Saturday, World War II foes Australia and Japan signed a security agreement to share intelligence and assist each other.
The deal was inked by Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Anthony Albanese in the western Australian city of Perth, according to the Voice of America.
“This landmark declaration sends a strong signal to the region of our strategic alignment,” Albanese said, according to VOA.
Ken Kotani of Nihon University, an expert in the history of Japanese intelligence, called the deal “an epoch-making event,” VOA reported.
Bryce Wakefield, director of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, told VOA the Japan-Australia agreement is a sign that Japan wants and needs allies.
While Australia and Japan have forged strong economic ties in the decades since World War II, the document signed Saturday takes the country’s relations to a new level.
[[so… that’s why Kishida flew to Perth… ]]

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 25 2022 10:52 utc | 375

Looks like Britain finally has a grown-up as its prime minister!
The first ever real speech after taking power as the PM. He spoke about the major problems touching his country, how to solve them, but not about Ukraine, or Zelly or Putin’s fault.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 11:00 utc | 376

Melaleuca @ 381
Japan’s General Koji Yamasaki was also in Ottawa recently, meeting with Chief of Defence Staff, General Eyre.
https://twitter.com/CDS_Canada_CEMD/status/1583534070599860225
“We used this visit to discuss shared concerns on global and regional security issues, and opportunities to work together more.” says Eyre

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 25 2022 11:01 utc | 377

Or, about continuing supporting the Ukraine dilemma. Let’s see if Ben Wallace is kicked out.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 11:05 utc | 378

🇬🇧🇷🇺Rishi Sunak played a leading role in the”sanctions offensive” against Russia
As the finance minister, he urged British companies to leave Moscow. Russian assets in London also became the targets of his sanctions.
“I urge asset owners and managers to think very carefully about any investment that could somehow support Putin and his regime. Diplomatically, politically, economically, and also militarily, this barbaric adventure of Vladimir Putin must end in failure,” Sunak said in March 2022.
Sunak is smarter than Liz Truss, and this is dangerous for the settlement of this conflict.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16581

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 11:14 utc | 379

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in #Starobelsk Direction until 12:00 on 25 Oct 2022⚡️
#Kupyansk Sector:
▪️There are no significant changes on the frontline. The command of the 14th Mechanized Brigade has rotated personnel. Formations of the Brigade are now preparing for an offensive against the positions of the Russian Forces in the direction of #Kislovka.
#Svatovo Sector:
▪️The AFU with a combined battalion and tactical group attempted an attack on the Russian positions near #Kuzemovka from the direction of #Peschanoye. Russian Forces repulsed the attack and destroyed one tank and three APCs.
#Lyman Sector:
▪️Assault groups of the 66th Mechanized AFU Brigade, supported by artillery, attacked the strongholds of Russian Forces near #Nevskoye.
During the fighting, the command of the Ukrainian unit moved a reserve of tanks to break through the Russian defences. However, the attack was repulsed and the forces of the 66th Mechanized Brigade retreated to their initial positions. As a result, the Russian Forces destroyed three tanks, two BMPs, one APC and three pickups of the AFU.
▪️ The Russian Forces’ barrel and rocket artillery shell the AFU’s forward positions in the #Borovaya area. For this reason, some of the personnel of the 64th Battalion of the 103rd Brigade of the AFU Territorial Defence have been withdrawn to the reserve lines.
▪️A unit of the AFU´s 71st Jager Brigade was deployed to reinforce the defence along the #Zherebets River and to carry out an assault on the #Raygorodka – #Kovalevka line.
▪️ In the vicinity of #Lyman and #Zarechnoye, the formation of a combined assault group of troops continues. A tank company was moved to the area of the settlements.
#Lysychansk Sector:
▪️After several unsuccessful attempts to storm the Russian positions in the direction of #Belogorovka, the AFU command is redeploying its units. Minefields were laid near #Serebryanka.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/16583

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 11:18 utc | 380

The US likely is mobilizing forces and NATO is being reenforced in Romania, but the fact remains that the west likely does not have an avenue to effectively apply that force. The mystique of the US military is a lot bigger than its might. The army is currently trying to pivot to fighting this kind of war but is still a long way from it. No doubt that the US or some portions of NATO directly entering the Ukraine conflict will cause great damage to Russian forces. But the damage is two way and there’s not any evidence that the US can take damage or sustain a conflict. Sure, 90 planes on an aircraft career but one can’t assume all 90 make it back to the carrier.
The US directly entering Ukraine is always a possibility, but it would be a terrible idea from the US perspective unless it can be sure that it would win decisively and quickly.

Posted by: Lex | Oct 25 2022 11:20 utc | 381

🇪🇺💰🇷🇺🇺🇦The goal of the Eu is not to freeze, but to confiscate Russian assets in Europe,we have a task force called “Capture and Freeze”.-von der Leyen-unelected corruptocract,autocrat and cleptoman(The “EU garden” do what it does best for centuries…Rob everyone…This is just more evidence to that…As infinite evidences before were seen,this is just one more…)

https://t.me/azmilitary11/26688

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 11:22 utc | 382

Et Tu | Oct 25 2022 9:36 utc | 366
Thank you, this is some high stakes gamesmanship going on. The Americans are psychopathic crazies. (nothing new there – I hope Russia doesn’t blink )

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 25 2022 11:24 utc | 383

Posted by: Jax | Oct 25 2022 8:53 utc | 355
“Lack of bomb deployment doesn’t equate to lack of bomb (or lack of plot to build one)”
Technically correct. But the point of the exercise is to detonate it. If this ends up like all the other alleged “false flags” Russia has warned about for the last eight months (and before), then it might as well not exist. If one of the goals of the exercise is to give the Democrats a poll bump, it needs to come now. If the goal is more to justify a NATO intervention, then it doesn’t matter when it comes as long as it results in that happening. But it will likely be too late if it comes after the Russian winter offensive. Once Russia has committed its full force of however many hundred thousand new troops, it will be far more difficult for the US to intervene according to the hypothesized plan.
So if it doesn’t happen in the next 2-8 weeks, say, we can assume the plan never existed. I don’t believe the US and UK would plan such an operation and then cancel it just because Russia blew the whistle on it. Serious people don’t do that. The only reason a plan like this would be canceled if 1) it’s become physically impossible for some reason, or 2) the instigators have gotten cold feet because of the possible consequences of Russian retaliation against them specifically.
as I said before, even if a dirty bomb is exploded and caused Russian soldier or Russian civilian casualties, I don’t see Russia directly retaliating against either US or NATO forces outside Ukraine (with the possible exception of NATO spy aircraft) or directly attacking US or NATO command and control outside Ukraine. I do see them decapitating the Kiev regime.
The details don’t really matter. What matters is that if the plan is executed, and Russia retaliates, what happens next? As I keep saying, always ask the next question and don’t fixate on one point in the chain of events.
When most people hear of events like these, their first reaction is cognitive dissonance. They are afraid of the consequences of the event, so they decide not to believe the event is possible and reach for all sorts of excuses why it can’t happen or fixate on problematic details of the event. This is not strategically sound thinking.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 11:26 utc | 384

@blues 260
The trouble with this assertion is principally that there are not “large numbers of people dying of radiation poisoning” except in the USA and Marshall islands, where the US detonated test bombs. Even Chernobyl caused a total of 31 recognized deaths and fewer than 150 cases of radiation toxicity related illness.
If you imagine that I am wrong, provide a citation from a recognized, peer reviewed, medical journal. Not half baked assertions of unknown provenance.
As for the claim that the US is shipping and shooting seriously pricey HEU, where a lot of the HEU in the US since the mid 1990s was sold to them by Russia, and this is definitely not going to happen again, there is not the slightest chance. Every gram is tracked by the IAEA and we know this diversion is not happening at any level of significance. We also know that the US government has around a million tonnes of depleted uranium to protect for the next billion years or so If they can dump it elsewhere, particularly in lieu of paying for something else expensive, why wouldn’t they?
@oldhippie 236
I am well aware of that. Depleted uranium’s mass and pyrophoric nature might have lead to it being weaponized even if the US government were not forced to pay to store a mountain of it. However, the level of ionizing U235 in depleted uranium is negligible, some 0.2 to 0.3 per cent by weight, and even if each projectile were fully aerosolized the amount of ionizing radiation experienced in the direct vicinity would likely remain significantly under that experienced by Uranium miners (3 – 20 mSv/a (avg. 4.45 mSv/a) for underground miners, and within the range of 1 – 5 mSv/a (avg. 1.56 mSv/a) for open pit miners. So while U238 bearing compounds are potentially much nastier when internal (because the only way alpha particles can get into the body is if the emitter is internal, and toxicity is more of a concern than radiation), I don’t think that we need be too concerned about depleted uranium unless shot with it, in which case there would likely be more urgent concerns than possibly developing a radiation based illness.

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 25 2022 11:26 utc | 385

Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, South Russia, has been connected to Russia’s gas transportation system – Zaporozhye Administration official Rogov.
Zaporozhye Plant has already been connected to Russian electricity grid.

https://t.me/IntelRepublic/7480

Posted by: Down South | Oct 25 2022 11:31 utc | 386

In March, Sunak was Johnsoniuk’s minister, but now he is the prime minister. If he wants/needs to safeguard the British economy, he has to stop wasting money in non-British areas. Right now, most of the political “experts” of western MSM are running around commenting. Funny hearing them, and not only in English.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 25 2022 11:32 utc | 387

The logical response to the UK’s operation to detonate a nuclear device in or near the conflict zone, is that Russia declares war on the UK.
How could Russia do otherwise?
Under these circumstances the UK would have no friends and would be entirely on its own, no NATO, no Article 5.

Posted by: CitizenSmith | Oct 25 2022 11:39 utc | 388

Prigozhin addressing Washington Post:
You are a publication with colossal experience, more than 140 years, your teachers and people who owned and worked in your publication kept their face and tried to objectively cover various events for a century and a half, so try not look like hysterical women in the kitchen, who collect gossip and speculations and try to create some kind of information field by publishing ridiculous provocative and offensive questions.
I understand that as of today most American journalists, especially those belonging to the Democratic camp, suffer from boorish vulgar populism. However, if each of you does a little bit to restore some element of objectivity to American journalism, you can become a really important tool for solving global problems of the world.
At the moment, you have become a “garbage dump”.
( Ouch! )

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 25 2022 11:42 utc | 389

@Richard Steven Hack 390
“So if it doesn’t happen in the next 2-8 weeks, say, we can assume the plan never existed”
Then how did Russia obtain intercepts of the plan being discussed”?
“if a dirty bomb is exploded and caused Russian soldier or Russian civilian casualties, I don’t see Russia directly retaliating against either US or NATO forces outside Ukraine”
Why not? Russia apparently has The evidence the UK is involved in the plot, and may have evidence implicating the US. Deploying nuclear weapons against Russia would trigger a nuclear response. Why imagine that Russia would not act against the conspirators? What do you think was the purpose of the Russian calls to NATO members of not to warn of this?
It is far too tempting, because it takes no effort, to argue any hypothetical in the absence of evidence, but when the arguments contradict evidence they should be abandoned.

Posted by: Hermit | Oct 25 2022 11:45 utc | 390

Incompetence by Russia keeps on …
Posted by: Zanon | Oct 25 2022 7:49 utc | 334
Try an experiment: grab some friend with a shotgun, get in front of him and once he fires, dodge ALL these many tiny bullets. If some still hits you, you are as incompetent as the Russians.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Oct 25 2022 11:46 utc | 391

German President Steinmeier visited Kiev again – totally by surprise. His visit last week gt cancelled due to security cncerns.
I was totally surprised by how often he visits his Zelensky. Am I the only one who suspects that these flights are used to delievers weapons to the Kiev regime?

Posted by: Martina | Oct 25 2022 11:47 utc | 392

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 11:26 utc | 390
“…if it doesn’t happen in the next 2-8 weeks, say, we can assume the plan never existed.”
Disagree once again. You’re repeating the same flawed assumption.
“The only reason a plan like this would be canceled if 1) it’s become physically impossible for some reason, or 2) the instigators have gotten cold feet because of the possible consequences of Russian retaliation against them specifically.”
Yes. The second reason you cited is exactly the point I made in my previous reply.
I agree with you that the more important question is “What happens next?” if a dirty bomb is detonated. Many here and elsewhere have already speculated US/NATO would use that as the pretext to directly enter the conflict. Lots of existing commentary on that already which I don’t need to repeat.
My view (shared by others) is that the highest chance of a dirty bomb (or other major event) happening is before the US mid-terms on Nov 8. Just 2 weeks today. I will be a lot more relaxed if on Nov 9th nothing has happened.
Cheers.

Posted by: Jax | Oct 25 2022 11:48 utc | 393

Down South @ 329
I remember those Hawk missiles. We had little plastic toy versions when I was a child. They are from 1960. Last US use was with the Marines, who sent them to storage in 2002. A big slow missile that made up for no accuracy by having a large warhead. Ukraine is just a disposal ground. Firing off sixty year old missiles that have been in dead storage for twenty years does not even sound safe.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 25 2022 11:56 utc | 394

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 11:26 utc | 390
One more thing: Yesterday, I shared the following:

Kiev’s provocation using a dirty bomb can be carried out with support of Western countries, Russia will regard the use of a dirty bomb by Kiev as an act of NUCLEAR TERRORISM, calls on West to influence the Kiev regime to ABANDON plans for such a provocation – Russian Permanent Representative to UN Nebenzya in a letter to UN Secretary General.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Moscow has VERIFIED information that Ukraine is preparing a dirty bomb.
“>https://t.me/IntelRepublic/7451

The important part is “Russia will regard the use of a dirty bomb by Kiev as an act of NUCLEAR TERRORISM, calls on West to influence the Kiev regime to ABANDON plans for such a provocation”.
I think it’s safe to say the four foreign ministries would have been advised the same by telephone. Dirty bomb = Nuclear terrorism. The consequences will be clear to all parties.

Posted by: Jax | Oct 25 2022 12:04 utc | 395

Richard Steven Hack
1) Currently 100,000 US troops are deployed to Europe in toto, with at least 4-5,000 101st Airborne Division within a few hundred kilometers of Odessa.
You really think US has 100,000 fighting soldiers in Europe ?????? !!!!!!!!!
Where do they hide them ?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294271/us-troops-europe-country/

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Oct 25 2022 12:08 utc | 396

Lex @ 387

Sure, 90 planes on an aircraft career but one can’t assume all 90 make it back to the carrier.

Or that the carrier will be there.
Col. Douglas Macgregor called them floating coffins. Today the only use for carriers is against poor countries, China and Russia can sink a carrier with one hit in any ocean on the planet. When China landed its little rover on Mars, perfectly and on the first try it was also to give the same message as the US space program in the 1950s-60s. Our missile technology works, works well, is robust, reliable, accurate, and global.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 25 2022 12:10 utc | 397

Hermit @ 391
Yes. Uranium as toxic heavy metal is at least as significant as radiation when used as DU ammunition.
Lifetime exposure limit for radiation work used to be 100mSv. Uranium miners do not do that work for a lifetime. They get compensated. Civilians in areas where DU has been used do not get compensated and may live in the area a lot longer than any miner stays in the mine. The dose that individual civilians may receive will vary wildly. Because many are not sick yet is not a reason to keep spreading poison.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 25 2022 12:11 utc | 398

Richard Steven Hack | Oct 25 2022 11:26 utc | 390
What about Bali? The week after the election will be especially ripe for performative atrocities to improve project continuity. The lame duck sessions of Congress tend to generate particularly unpleasant laws and institutions. Yet more Ukraine appropriations would fit right in there.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Oct 25 2022 12:13 utc | 399

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (25 October 2022)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.
💥 In the Kupyansk direction, an enemy battalion tactical group attacked the positions of the Russian forces on a narrow front towards Kuzemovka (Lugansk People’s Republic).
◻️ The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have been neutralised by Russian artillery fire that drove the enemy back to initial positions.
◻️ Over 30 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, and two pickups have been eliminated.
💥 In the Krasny Liman direction, Russian forces have eliminated over 120 Ukrainian personnel, three tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, one armoured personnel carrier, three pickups and one motor vehicle.
💥 In the Nikolayev–Krivoy Rog direction, two enemy company tactical groups unsuccessfully attacked the positions of the Russian forces towards Ishchenka and Bruskinskoye (Kherson region).
◻️ All the attacks have been repelled.
◻️ Up to 130 Ukrainian personnel, 3 tanks, 9 armoured fighting vehicles and 11 motor vehicles have been eliminated.
💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 4 AFU command posts near Novoye, Dvurechnaya (Kharkov region), Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Olenovka (Nikolayev region).
◻️ The list of the neutralised targets also includes: a heliport near Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), 68 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and military hardware in 182 areas.
◻️ 2 AFU armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Zelyony Gai (Nikolayev region).
💥 Operational-tactical aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 MiG-29 airplane of Ukrainian Air Force near Kaluga (Nikolayev region).
💥 Air defence facilities have destroyed 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Oborotnovka, Kalinovka, Vladimirovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Kolodeznoye (Kharkov region), Sadok, Aleksandrovka, Krinichanka, Kucherskoye (Kherson region) and Energodar (Zaporozhye region).
◻️ Moreover, 7 projectiles launched by HIMARS and Smerch MLRS have been shot down near Klapaya, Otradokamenka, Vesyoloye (Kherson region), Kolomyichikha (Lugansk People’s Republic), as well as three U.S.-manufactured HARM anti-radar missiles near Petrovka (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Antonovka (Kherson region).
📊 In total, 326 airplanes and 162 helicopters, 2,339 unmanned aerial vehicles, 383 air defence missile systems, 6,046 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 874 fighting vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,525 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 6,758 units of special military hardware have been destroyed during the special military operation.

Posted by: Summary | Oct 25 2022 12:15 utc | 400