Arrnon no. 1
The daily mail is a useless, tabloid pos.

Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Oct 20 2022 13:54 utc | 4

Posted by: Jax | Oct 20 2022 13:47 utc | 3
I should add: The Ukies/NATO will obviously know the Russians are hurriedly emptying the reservoir. This means if the Ukies do attempt a major strike on the dam, they’ll need to do it in the next few days while the water level would still cause catastrophic flooding. Now or never as it were as the window is closing.

Posted by: Jax | Oct 20 2022 14:03 utc | 6

Shouldn’t this thread be tagged, “2022-178”?

Posted by: David Levin | Oct 20 2022 14:09 utc | 8

Posted by: Jax | Oct 20 2022 14:03 utc | 6

From Tass, Nothing critical to happen even if Kakhovka dam is hit — local official. Subtitled, Kirill Stremousov explained that even if water started pouring in, there were canals capable of diverting the flow.

Posted by: David Levin | Oct 20 2022 14:18 utc | 10

DownSouth@7
Logical Russian moves to counter the underwater drones would be to mount sensors for a kilometer or so upriver from the dam. Sensors would detect drones by sonar plus magnetic resonance. Both the sensors and tethered mines would be stationary in the moving water in a manner similar to drones. If properly deployed, such a simple system could be sufficient to sink the drones.

Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 20 2022 14:33 utc | 12

I meant “rapidly emptying the *reservoir* ”

Posted by: Jax | Oct 20 2022 14:39 utc | 14

@9
“Gas prices come tumbling down, at current levels 4x higher than 2020.”
Looks like Germany will only have to amputate one leg instead of two.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 20 2022 14:43 utc | 16

The statement by Surovikin, the Commander-in-Chief of Operations, which emphasizes negative information about the special military operation, is highly unusual, British Intelligence believes.
Well, the British Intelligence, the British government still lives in the Soviet times, that’s why lettuces can survive more than the British prime minister.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 20 2022 14:54 utc | 18

fromTurcopolier
Ukraine update: Evacuation of Kherson underway as Russia prepares to lose a regional capital

Over the last three days, what started as a trickle of Telegram statements hinting at Russian units being reassigned out of the Kherson area has turned into a flood of evacuation orders instructing people to leave the city immediately. On Wednesday morning, Russian soldiers, local officials, and civilians were all visible along the west bank of the wide Dnipro River, waiting for barges and ferries that will take them away to the east.
Some Russian spokesmen, like Kirill Stremousov, who serves as the head of Russia’s occupation government in Kherson, are stating that “the battle of Kherson is about to begin.” Others, like the commander of the Russian army group “South,” Gen. Sergei Surovikin, seemed to be sending every possible signal that Russia is preparing to withdraw from the entire area. Overnight, Vladimir Putin formally declared martial law in all four of the oblasts now claimed by Russia. Something is definitely changing. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 20 2022 15:04 utc | 20

Post 21
Ooops sorry, wrong thread

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 20 2022 15:06 utc | 22

‼️ 🇧🇾 🇺🇦 The risk of a re-offensive of the Russian army to Belarus is growing, – the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The target this time may not be Kiev. “This time, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the west of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border in order to cut the main logistical arteries for the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from partner countries.”
At the airfields of the Republic of Belarus there are MiG-31 aircraft, which can be armed with cruise missiles of the “Dagger” type.

https://t.me/azmilitary11/26112

Posted by: Down South | Oct 20 2022 15:22 utc | 24

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 20 2022 15:06 utc | 21
I’m beginning to think that Ben Wallace is himself a prank by Vovan & Lexus.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 20 2022 15:46 utc | 26

Ben Wallace is going to be the next Prime minister.
What if UK attacks Russian forces?
What would USA do in that case?
UK is also a nuclear power.

Posted by: marko | Oct 20 2022 15:56 utc | 28

What is a difference between loitering munition and suicide drone?

Posted by: marko | Oct 20 2022 16:01 utc | 30

As many expected, the Russian position will be reversed by Western information sovereignty:
“Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state that deliberately targets civilians.”
The so called ISW (understanding war/ Institute for the Study of War) is generally the fourth “objective source” next to the regime in Kyiv, the British military secret service and the Pentagon, to which the German media refer when describing the conflict in order to steer the minds of their readers.

Posted by: Konrad | Oct 20 2022 16:03 utc | 32

Don Bacon

Russia Abandons Kherson as Putin’s Army Flees Back Across Dnieper

LOL what did I say! Russia is defeated plain and simple.
When does this circus end for Russia? How will they get out? What are they trying to achive with this idiotic strategy? Obviously russians cannot fight, they are not trained for this and regular russians do not want this fight which I fully understand since there is no goal, no strategy and no defense for the their lives on the battlefield.
As I said before, Russia’s goal should have been secure Donbas. That should have been the only goal in this war, instead they are running around like hens, doing nothing of substance. Disgraceful!

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 20 2022 16:14 utc | 34

I haven’t known any modern military in the last 50 years to care enough about civilians to expend so much effort in saving their lives.
This evacuation if Kherson is a moral victory of the Russian State over the entire Western world.
If there is a God, his blessing hangs over Vladimir Putin today.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 16:14 utc | 36

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 20 2022 16:05 utc | 33
Saw no evidence in that article about Russian army leaving. Only civs leaving (those who want) under relocation program. The army is digging in, and the risk from the hydro reservoir is diminishing and after a few days, gone completely.
OK – jokes aside
What we have seen so far in Kherson were 2 attacks in the northern sector with around two mech inf battalions (reduced though) – and 1 reduced tank battalion.
(not even 2 companies)
So it was still a probing attack.
I expect much more to come in the coming days.
We also saw the usual artillery duels in all sectors and some DRGs trying to infiltrate.
The purpose of all this was to learn about the latest defensive configuration of the RF forces.
But we also saw RF forces digging in – and that means they await a strong assault.
Plus: reinforcements still pulling in from Crimea.
I guess RF will wait for the assault – even pull back here and there – till AFU is exhausted – and then we will see a strong counter.
The evacuation of civilians will give RF the freedom of movement and so they can dig in in settlements and urban areas.
The empty area will also allow to shift more forces to the front and Station them there for reserve capabilities.
Banning civilians into the battle zone means also that Ukrainian saboteurs can’t infiltrate or spy anymore there.
Also, French news channel reported Ukrainian bombings of the city and hospitals, at which point they cut off their own reporter.
https://t.me/EurasianChoice/21041

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 20 2022 16:23 utc | 38

The fury over presumed “Iranian drones” is based on interpretation of language in a clause of the 2015 UN JCPOA deal. Even though the Americans repudiated the deal several years ago, the Iranians are now being condemned for violating an interpretation of a clause as determined by U.S. allies. Whether the drones are indeed of Iranian origin remains ambiguous.
Note also that coverage of the Ukraine hostilities as reported on the Turcoplier site is largely informed by Ukraine and UK military briefings, which have often been wildly incorrect since the beginning of the war.

Posted by: jayc | Oct 20 2022 16:28 utc | 40

“If FUKUS interferes, then Ramstein and Fairford air bases”
I’d imagine GCHQ and the American NSA offshoot at Menwith Hill might be in the picture too. Sure wish I could find some potassium iodide or iodate pills in the UK.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 20 2022 16:43 utc | 42

DownSouth@24…Kiev build up, it’s a ruse. R&B are building up a rapid reaction force to secure Kaliningrad.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 20 2022 16:48 utc | 44

@unimperator | Oct 20 2022 16:23 utc | 38
Saw no evidence in that article about Russian army leaving.
Then you have faulty vision at my 27.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 20 2022 16:52 utc | 46

@ unimperator | Oct 20 2022 21:06 utc | 47
My guess if Ukraine detonates their dirty bomb in Nikolaev
You blog guesses, I blog facts.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 20 2022 16:55 utc | 48

According to TASS, Kakhovka was attacked today 5 times using himars, tochka and harm missiles. The text has no info about their success or failure or about any retaliation.
According to Benny Wallace, Shoigu and Gerasimov were spanked for an incident a month ago over Black Sea, when a UK spy plane, apparently leaving from Romania, was “peacefully” flying when a Su27 shot a missile “near” it. That is what they said, “near”. Benny claims Shoigu said it was a mistake, but Shoigu won’t speak to anyone, so it’s not confirmed yet but Benny felt like sharing.

Posted by: rk | Oct 20 2022 16:58 utc | 50

Does anyone have any clue why Ben Wallace needed to take an urgebt personal trip to the US? Seems odd and unnecessary.

Posted by: V86 | Oct 20 2022 17:03 utc | 52

Posted by: rk | Oct 20 2022 16:58 utc | 50
Benny got pranked into disclosing British state secrets by Lexus and Vovin. Nothing that joker utters has any credibility.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:10 utc | 54

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 20 2022 16:55 utc | 48

You blog guesses, I blog facts.

You blog random made up stuff pasted off twatter about Russians stealing truckfuls of appliances.
As if you’d gone in and done the investigation yourself.
These are your ‘Facts’.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:13 utc | 56

Posted by: rk | Oct 20 2022 17:13 utc | 57
Now the question is how he still has a job.
I suppose a society that can put Truss or Bojo in power will feel right at home with a clown like Wallace at the head of their army.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:20 utc | 58

@52;
Sweaty Ben is being sent to Washington to discuss his new orders.
His underling (James Heappey) said in a Tuesday interview on Sky News that:
“My boss, Ben Wallace, is in Washington this morning having the sort of conversations that… beyond belief really the fact we are a time when these sort of conversations are necessary.”
According to them:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-mysterious-ben-wallace-trip-to-washington-amid-fears-of-russian-escalation-12723942
“But the foreign secretary, speaking to Sky News on Wednesday morning, called Mr Wallace’s trip a “normal and regular part of what is frankly a very abnormal and perverse situation” and suggested it was in response to Russia’s increased targeting of civilian infrastructure.
“There’s urgency because civilians are being targeted in a new way and so we have to respond to that, and our response has to be done at pace,” said Mr Cleverly.
“There are conversations which frankly you don’t want to have over the telephone.”
…
Because these creatures are sociopaths engaged in projecting, this means that they are planning to target civilians in a new way. Could be the blowing the reservoir idea.

Posted by: moaobserver | Oct 20 2022 17:22 utc | 60

Why the Russian forces have allowed certain electric trains to keep on working.
http://johnhelmer.org/what-next-in-the-electric-war-for-ukraine-how-marshal-kutuzovs-golden-bridge-for-napoleons-retreat-is-working-today/#more-59362

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 20 2022 17:29 utc | 62

Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:26 utc | 61
“What is your central thesis?”
That if in fact the Russian military were to retreat back across the river it would be a major strategic defeat, no matter how much Yes-man “sentiment” calls it a mystical victory.
So far it doesn’t look like this is on the verge of happening:
https://southfront.org/overview-of-military-situation-in-kherson-on-october-20-ukrainian-offensive-keeps-bloody-stalling-video/
but it’s disgusting to see the Yes-men already preparing to justify and cheer for such a defeat if it were to happen.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Oct 20 2022 17:39 utc | 64

Behold the end results of American ‘victory’ over Iraq:

Iraq’s Foreign Ministry renewed its support for OPEC + and Saudi Arabia on 18 October, rejecting any policy of threat or pressure after the coalition decided to reduce oil production by two million barrels per day (bpd), escalating tensions between Riyadh and Washington.
The tensions heightened after Saudi Arabia rejected Washington’s urgent appeal to postpone a significant oil production cut for another month, according to US and Saudi sources who spoke to Wall Street Journal.
However, the Iraqi ministry said, “we are following the reactions to the OPEC + group’s resolution to reduce oil production and the interactions that the decision reflected.”

https://thecradle.co/Article/News/17086

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:44 utc | 66

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Oct 20 2022 17:39 utc | 64

but it’s disgusting to see the Yes-men already preparing to justify and cheer for such a defeat if it were to happen.

I’m not sure if the problem is with your reading comprehension or your general reasoning ability.
The course and outcome of the battle is something I did not comment on.
The observation I made was not a cheer for anything martial.
It was an observation of the moral basis of Putin’s treatment of civilians and value for human life.
The moral lense used to make this observation was a tradition Western one.
You seem to be surprised or unfamiliar with this moral lense …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:49 utc | 68

𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲’𝘀 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗱𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Europe is paying an incredible price for the energy crisis.
EU countries’ trade 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘀 hit a historic anti-record of an incredible €58 billion (trade with countries outside the EU) in August 2022, compared to the €15-20 billion 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗹𝘂𝘀 generated in 2019-2020.
For the first 8 months of 2022, the foreign trade deficit was €304 billion, compared to a surplus of €98 billion in 2021, a surplus of €118-120 billion in 2019-2020 over the same time period. Prior to that, the record deficit for the first 8 months was in 2008 at 91.4 billion euros.
So going from a surplus of 120 billion to a deficit of 300 billion is 420 billion and that’s in just 8 months! Considering the trends, the foreign trade deficit of the EU countries may reach 500 billion euro in 2022.
Among large European countries, the most critical situation is in France (€18 billion deficit) and Italy (€10 billion prohibitive deficit against the €5-6 billion surplus which was considered a norm). Germany’s trade balance is going to zero.
Virtually the entire deficit is due to energy. How much is the energy crisis costing Europe? The estimate of the trade balance speaks of 700-800 billion euros a year!
Added to this are the direct costs due to the destabilization of industry (forced restrictions on gas and electricity consumption and rising energy prices).
The scale of deindustrialization has yet to be assessed – these processes are manifesting themselves with a delay, but given the experience of the 70s, at least 𝟭𝟬-𝟭𝟱% of industries will be destroyed.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/15602

Posted by: Down South | Oct 20 2022 17:59 utc | 70

If the Dam is destroyed and Kherson and a lot of smaller towns and villages are flooded in a manner of minutes – how many (hundred thousands) of civilians would die? How many Russian soldiers?
It is hard to imagine that Russia would consider as anything but the launch of a weapon of mass destruction against its territory.
And react accordingly. With full support, one would imagine, of all parts of the world that are not NATO. Possibly even including some or most NATO-countries.

Posted by: Marvon | Oct 20 2022 18:09 utc | 72

The position of the RF west of the river is very difficult and costly to hold at the moment.
Evacuation to the other, far better defensible, side and waiting until they get a foothold on the west side there or elsewhere is the smartest move.
At least that is what I think with the available information.
They can retake all territory of the new regions one by one after the situation with troops stabilizes.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 20 2022 18:18 utc | 74

I hate to say it, but i feel a US/NATO false flag is being planned, to be blamed on Russia and used as an excuse to rally the American public up for direct involvement in the war. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of an attack on a US city within the next 3-months. Even more likely if the Russians are clearly winning on the battlefield.

Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 20 2022 18:29 utc | 76

Arch Bungle | Oct 20 2022 17:49 utc | 68
“It was an observation of the moral basis of Putin’s treatment of civilians and value for human life…
You seem to be surprised or unfamiliar with this moral lense …”
Given previous Russian withdrawals leaving friendly civilians to the tender treatments of the Ukronazis, and the cavalier handwaving about such withdrawals among the internet Yes-men (I especially noted how you all said the spaces east of Kharkov were just empty steppes to be retaken later, at the exact moment we were seeing abandoned then murdered civilians being dumped in pits), it would seem that such real (as opposed to virtue-signaling) concern for civilians is new and late-coming. So I do agree it’s an improvement that they’re taking real action to get the civilians out of the way at Kherson, though I don’t hyperventilate about it the way you do. That’s what they should have been doing all along.
At any rate, I’ve spent my adult life in part reading many hundreds of history books about war, and one axiom I’ve derived is that if there’s going to be a real fight at all, then the best way to minimize civilian deaths is to get the war finished as fast as possible. So I always regarded as dubious the “SMO” calculus of longest-drawn-out and the-longer-the-better being consistent with the goal of minimizing civilian casualties. I suppose it was worth trying to see if the Ukrainians really would greet the Russians as liberators and overthrow the Kiev regime, but once it became clear that wasn’t going to happen, it also became clear that the most merciful action was the fastest, most decisive war action. That was many months ago.
Yet here you are still saying it’s most merciful to let them freeze and starve all winter. That’s a “sentiment” for the civilians I don’t understand.
It doesn’t bother me. I’ve said from the start Kiev and Lvov should be leveled, and no one there deserves any better. So if they insist I also would let them freeze and starve. They chose this route against humanity and Christ.
I understand well that this is a strategic war of clashing Verdun notions, each side thinking it’s drawing the other into suicidal attrition, whether in terms of military hardware or economic sustenance and stability or anything else.
Well, if it is true that the big picture is a world-historical economic war which through attrition will drive the US empire and the globalist whore riding it to suicide, that’ll be a worthy end. But spare us the efflorescent notion that it’s best for the civilians most directly impacted. Such “sentiments” can only encourage the strategic lukewarmness which has been all too evident throughout this war and to this day, as we see how the Russian political leadership still makes noises about wanting a Minsk III, as if the first two weren’t enough failure and humiliation for them. But Minsk III wouldn’t just be stupidity, it would be treason.

Posted by: Flying Dutchman | Oct 20 2022 18:44 utc | 78

‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️ Zelensky announces bombing of Kakhovskaya HPP dam and flooding of Kherson region: Kiev starts preparing info-field, blaming Russia
“We have information that Russian terrorists have mined the dam and units of the Kakhovskaya HPP. This is one of the major energy facilities. The dam of this hydropower plant holds about 18m cu.m. of water. If Russian terrorists blow up this dam, about 80 settlements will be flooded, including Kherson.
❗️We are witnessing a standard move – to accuse the enemy in advance and then write off their crime on it.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/15616

Posted by: Down South | Oct 20 2022 19:04 utc | 80

This is so funny. WH said Iran is now part of conflict in Ukr because they send weapons to Russia.
50bn more for zely announced to be approved soon

Posted by: rk | Oct 20 2022 19:14 utc | 82

Given this Kherson counteroffensive has had almost as much media coverage as Kim Kardashian’s butt for months, and Russia understands defense in depth going back to Kursk and far before, what are the odds this becomes a slaughter or is a diversion for something else?
In military history, has anyone ever announced their specific intent so much for such a long period of time?

Posted by: CJLegalBeagle | Oct 20 2022 19:22 utc | 84

Alexander Rubinstein’s latest report:
How the pro-Ukraine NAFO troll operation crowd-funds war criminals

The Grayzone has closely reviewed NAFO’s Discord server and gained access to channels accessible only to verified members. As the second part of this two part investigation will show, the server is a cesspool of hatred, with fellas delighting in videos of wounded and dying Russians and cracking gay jokes at their expense. Prominent journalists can also be found in the chats colluding with NAFO leaders on how to spin their coverage of the troll farm and cultivate support from DC power-brokers.
[more]

Posted by: Aleph_Null | Oct 20 2022 19:30 utc | 86

I don’t think underwater drones can hold enough explosives. The British attacked German dams in WWII with special bombs weighing 4 tons (3 tons of explosives). As with warships, the Germans had pre-tensioned torpedo nets. In only one case was a successful drop sufficient to break the wall of the respective dam.
The explosive power of the mines could also be very tight. For example, the large Soviet KB mine has an explosive charge of 240 kg TNT equivalent.

Posted by: may be | Oct 20 2022 19:34 utc | 88

The Yes-men here seems to forgot that “evacuating civilians” were done in Kharkov too.
“People evacuated to LPR, Russia from Kharkov Region due to shelling by Ukraine — official”
https://tass.com/world/1505439
“Videos posted to social media showed long lines of cars piled up at the Russian border after occupying authorities called for a civilian evacuation.”
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/10/1122201033/ukraine-russia-troop-pullback-kharkiv
Couple of days later Kharkov had fallen…
Now Russia do the same mistake again in Kherson.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 20 2022 19:42 utc | 90

The Ukrainian National Guard has formed 130 mobile fire groups to combat drones, said Colonel Mykola Urszalovych from the planning department in the management of the National Guard.

MSM reports.
They have been buying slingshots.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 20 2022 20:01 utc | 92

Paulg@92…sounds like the Ukraine just recieved their first delivery of German made Clown Cars….so, just how many Ukies can fit in one VW Beatle, apparently 130.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Oct 20 2022 20:11 utc | 94

Does anybody have the accurate amount in $billions the US sent to Ukraine from Feb 20th to Oct 20th?
I can’t find the correct figures anywhere, the announcements are scattered all over the place but never a succinct consolidated report.
That may even be deliberate since it looks like the US sent somewhere between $80 to $100 billion in that time period. May be the deep state and the military industrial complex doesn’t want people to realize the country with the THIRD largest military budget (Ukraine) supplied in part with US weapons is struggling and even failing to retake 4 territories from Russia.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Oct 20 2022 20:15 utc | 96

The Russian have apparently dug or built three lines of defense around Kherson. Clearly they are going to plant lettuces in the trenches. Nobody with a sane mind would attack such a terrifying defense – Equally unfortunately there do not seem to be many sane minds on the Ukie side. So it is more “statistically probable that the Ukies will attack massively – if they are going to – in the next few days. The Russians forces are building up their numbers discretely, but it is deliberately not mentioned where.
****
John Helmers take on the electricity problem could be correct. Cutting the Lviv/Kiev command and supply structure off from the battlefront(s). Zelensky is probably in Poland or Miami.
****
The Russian and the Belarussins are both working hard on underground nuclear shelters. The Russian now have surgeries/operating units incorporated in big shelters, and the Belarussian schoolchildren are ALSO helping to prepare their own shelters.
*
Personally, I don’t have anywhere to run to, so I hope whoever it is, misses.
***
There is a second possible target for a “nuclear” False flag, which would be a blow to the Russians as well, that is the Zaphorizhia Nuclear Plant itself. Although solidly built by the Soviets, the stocks of used fuel and rods are not so well protected, and therefore vulnerable.
IF the US and NATO have realised they are losing, some sort of permanant dirty radiation barrier, cutting the Oblasts from Crimea and Odessa, could seem a prospect in a long war time frame. (Like a couple of thousand years?).

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 20 2022 20:27 utc | 98

People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones, Kiev sits behind a dam as well.

Posted by: Johnycomelately | Oct 20 2022 20:38 utc | 100