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October 14, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-173
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🇧🇾🇷🇺 Gomel, Republic of Belarus.
Local TG channels report that troops are beginning to arrive in the city en masse, incl the Russian grouping of forces.
it would seem that the upcoming events before the end of the month are already obvious, I note that this is not the whole surprise. A little later I will publish information on the “second act”.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2022 16:07 utc | 301
Fellow Preppers,
Note my list basically only needs to have imported items. I live in a dairy farming community in a picturesque and lush mountain valley. Excess of food and firewood and water. Village Militia was established 250 years ago and roughly 2/3s the menfolk are active members.
What the rest of you describe as hard core prepping reminds me of my Mormon neighbors during my 1960s childhood. 1 year food and water stored in their suburban garages top to bottom should the famine ever return. The Mormons are the real preppers. We are all amatuers
Posted by: Exile | Oct 15 2022 16:26 utc | 302
I report on Kherson:
At the end of the day, the enemy failed to break through the defense in the direction of Dudchany – Mylovoye.
The enemy got into a fire bag, approximately two battalions with tank support were scattered during the active work of artillery and aviation.
About 15 tanks and 20 other armored personnel carriers were destroyed, the loss of personnel is being clarified.
Excellent coordinated work of infantry, artillery and units of the SPN of the Russian Federation
https://t.me/azmilitary11/25369
Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2022 16:27 utc | 303
🇺🇦🇧🇾🇷🇺 The Russian Army, with the support of Belarus, can take Kiev – Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The implementation of this plan, according to Navaev, may take 2-3 months.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2022 16:29 utc | 304
NATOs conventional missile arm is capable of wiping out the whole SMO.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 15 2022 16:03 utc | 298
How many plants you grow at home?
Posted by: rk | Oct 15 2022 16:42 utc | 305
I watched Brian Berletic (the New Atlas)’s recent video on Musk being placed on the Ukrainian “kill list.” He debunked a western media “fact checker” on many points, including the claim that the site is an independent NGO with no proven connection to the Ukrainian govt.
I attempted to post a comment with additional argument and evidence in support of Berletic, and against the “fact checker.”
To my shock, my comnent was immediately removed (like in seconds… which I discovered when I tried to edit it to add another link. When I tried to repost the comment, I was not able to do so. Is this a common occurance? How is it done? What “community guideline” could I have violated. My censored comment is below the line. If anyone is able to copy and post it, and it remains up, please let me know. Perhaps it was all just an innocent technical glitch. I tried to pass the info on to Brian by other means, but he does not make his contact info available.
———————-
Just to add: the government of Ukraine has refused to condemn the list or renounce it.
(And given that its funding source and staff are secret, how can Newsweek claim to know the Ukrainian govt is not behind it????)
For example:
The Committee for the Protection of Journalists has repeateded asked the Ukrainian govt to denounce the list and it has repeatedly refused.
https://cpj.org/2016/05/cpj-urges-ukrainian-president-petro-poroshenko-to-/
And here is the UK govt in 2016 complaining about the list and asking the Ukrainian govt to take responsibility (again refused):
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-ambassadors-statement-regarding-journalists-personal-data-on-myrotvorets-website
Please note that both sources take for granted that the Ukrainian govt is responsible.
Posted by: GuardYourHumanity | Oct 15 2022 16:45 utc | 306
@ Down South
thanks for all your posts… i appreciate it..
Posted by: james | Oct 15 2022 16:48 utc | 307
Interesting times.
The latest MOD report shows the effect of RF missiles killing the grid electric grid in country 404. has virtually crippled the entire eastern offense. Thus on October 15th, 2022 the great 404 offense died with a whimper.
With six weeks of Autumn weather left, The winters in country 404 are notoriously very cold and very harsh. By January 2023 even brass monkeys are reluctant to travel outdoors.
As we know propaganda is not a substitute for hot food. All smartphones die when your cell tower loses battery reserve power. Whatever food stocks are available within 404 for civilian daily rations. I would guess by now a minimum of 50% to 80% of the stock has already been stolen from the warehouses. Just like Cecil Rhodes did in Mafeking in 1899.
There is something people ignore. Every user of “Starlink” auto GPS locates! Identical to every mobile cell phone user in the world. Blame it on Kevin Mitnik! Think about it! The user is lighting up a big sign “Here I am” to the nearest smart programmable HARM weapon flying overhead. A self-identifying “Me FOE Shoot Me” target.
In other news between seven to ten divisions of Russian Federation troops are arriving in Belorussia. Supposedly for war games? Perhaps the Polish Generals will be seeking a change of underwear soon.
Truth is stranger than fiction – Mark Twain
Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 15 2022 16:48 utc | 308
Franconia@340
The total numbers of UkiePukie troops on the Kherson front is not nearly as important as their quality. From all accounts, the 2-24 AFU has been systematically decimated. Perhaps one of ten have survived, did not experience significant wounds and are not suffering from intense levels of PTSD.
The 30-60,000 figures strike me as being rather inflated. What the forces they can assemble on that front will mostly be dragooned conscripts, along with moderate stiffenings of tattered veterans and some number of temporarily detached NATOstani troops, most of whom are Polaks.
Then there’s the minor issue of equipment. Much the same case as their dearth of combat-hardened veteran soldiers; the Ukies have taken one helluva battering on their tanks and other armored vehicles. Currently, their original armor is mostly rusting where they got smashed. So the NATOstanis sent in virtually all of their Soviet-era equipment as replacements. Now, a significant proportion of those elements are also wrecked. The West has been a bit niggardly about shipping in any quantity of current models, particularly tanks.
Should it be true that the Pukes are mounting an all-out offensive…in the Kherson or elsewhere…such an assault, over open steppe country and the probability of muddy conditions, will also militate against the likelihood of a Ukie success.
General Winter is looming over the horizon. Economically, the Ukes are a basket-case. A solid third of their electrical network has been compromised…as Russia was still wearing one glove during their missile onslaught. Same with the railroad system. Wars are won on the basis of logistics, perhaps combined with will. Will the ballyhooed assault sputter and halt? Magic thinking will only get you so far. The window of opportunity acceleratedly diminishes on a daily basis.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 16:51 utc | 309
Down South@243
Critical takeaway: Russia enjoys near total air supremacy. If carefully utilized, Russian aerial forces can devastate both armor and infantry. They can also degrade supportive artillery concentrations.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 16:55 utc | 310
Posted by: james | Oct 15 2022 16:48 utc | 308
No problem. All good.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 15 2022 16:56 utc | 311
Grunzt@ 255
Chances are you are quite well aware that Deutschland has been an occupied country since 5-8-45. No peace treaty has ever been signed. Thus Berlin sports only a puppet regime. “Alles Im Ordnung ist”, Nicht wahr?
Here in the belly of the beast, the U$$A government will impose martial law or something such, if only their computers tell them that those hundreds of millions of privately owned firearms may not pose a significant problem. Rural America is rapidly awakening and does possess fair measures of common sense. So the elites will likely need to employ the old frog-boiling strategy…gradually accelerating crackdowns. Here in “flyover country”, even railroads and interstate highways could become vulnerable if those enemies of humanity move too fast and too hard.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 17:06 utc | 312
DownSouth@305
From previous postings, I gathered that the bulk of the Ukie tanks were modified T-64’s. Those machines, even if remodeled to some current level, are virtually collector’s items…vintage+. What this tells me is that this offensive is scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to armor. Desperate times engender desperate measures.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 17:29 utc | 313
@ aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 16:51 utc | 311
>> UkiePukie troops
C’mon. Let’s not insult these victims.
Posted by: dfg | Oct 15 2022 18:52 utc | 314
aristodemos 117
All those Talmudists, particularly the ones who tend towards the status of predatory parasites, do need their own Reservation some damned place.
They have it, granted to them by none other that Iosif Visarionovich Dzhugashvili himself, The Autonomous Oblast of Birobidzhan . Kind of cold though, the talmudists preferred kicking out the rightful owners of Palestine instead of befriending good ol’ Derzu Uzala and some tigers in that sparsely populated neighborhood.
Posted by: Paco | Oct 15 2022 18:55 utc | 315
aristodemos | Oct 15 2022 17:06 utc | 314
inauthentic and formuluaic
Posted by: KC | Oct 15 2022 19:00 utc | 316
Arch Bungle’s Defencenews PL report fits in with the orders by UA for South Korean “stingers” and “leopards” reported earlier this week by Sputniknews.
Plenty of pie in the sky… manufacture and delivery will take time and I have some doubts about whether the contracts will be completed or paid for. It seems futile and underwhelming.
Maybe it’s only for show.
· · ·
Any UA nuclear false flag has become less likely while a UK nuclear “accident” has become a lot more likely. UK is far enough from the front not to risk a plethora of (non-nuclear unless “the west” messes up) unintended consequences. Scotland is the easiest but south England is the most useful and effective. The aim isn’t chaos and panic but to regain authority/”control” (they have next to none outside of the MSM) and giving themselves carte blanche, first and foremost in the UK, France, Germany, and Spain but also in western Europe in general.
However if that really is what the plan is (or was) then it seems the cat is out of the bag. Right or wrong something with heft is moving behind the scenes and creating a lot of consternation. In no way can it be Truss, Starmer, or all the concerns from every politician about saving and kowtowing to “the markets”; all that stuff is too petty and nonsensical —excuses and “explanations”.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 15 2022 19:30 utc | 317
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 15 2022 19:30 utc | 319
Sunny
Why must you repeat this same old stuff?
Sunny
Many of us have had quite enough
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 15 2022 19:38 utc | 318
Posted by: guest from franconia | Oct 15 2022 12:14 utc | 240
Respect to the Ukrainians how they always manage to bring such strong troops to the front without the Russian being able to do much about it.
Given that it’s their country and they’re already in it you’d expect at least that much.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 15 2022 12:34 utc | 245
I think the key part was “to the front”. Given that we repeatedly see talk of Russian air supremacy or “near” air supremacy, troop formations of tens of thousands of soldiers amassing on one front and then moving across farmland, seems to contradict that.
Posted by: Simon | Oct 15 2022 21:39 utc | 319
Same for “air superiority” which seems to imply you could destroy massive troop formations from the air. If it doesn’t, what does “air superiority” bring?
Posted by: Simon | Oct 15 2022 22:43 utc | 320
kc@318
Were you gazing fondly into a mirror when you posted this afflatus.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 16 2022 0:07 utc | 321
dog@316
These victims were insulted first upon being dragooned in as conscript cannon fodder. In an instance today, while happily munching on a watermelon, a high Ukie official was describing combat events. No couth. No evident feeling for those victims when he was safe in Kiev.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 16 2022 0:11 utc | 322
re: Giyane | Oct 15 2022 13:12 utc | 252
you wrote, “There is zero possibility that anybody in charge if anything will use anything but a small tactical nuke.”
So what exactly do you think would happen if a “small tactical nuke” is detonated on the battlefield in Ukraine? That will be it, that there will be no nuclear or massive conventional response aimed at the “decision making centers” of the responsible party? The side hit by the nuke will sue for peace?
Russia has no need to use nukes against Ukraine, because as Scott Ritter pointed out, Ukraine does not pose an existential threat to Russia — but NATO does. Ukraine does not have nukes (yet), but NATO is about to start practicing nuclear strikes against Russia. I am hoping that this will not be Abler Archer 2022, but have no confidence in the crazed ideologue neocons running US foreign policy.
A false flag nuclear detonation will put us on the road to Armageddon. Should the crazies in the US attempt this in order to blame the “desperate” Russians (and provide an excuse to get NATO into the war), the propagandized Western public may fall for the lie, but the Russians will know the score.
Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 16 2022 4:24 utc | 323
Posted by: Simon | Oct 15 2022 21:39 utc | 321
I think the key part was “to the front”.
What front? There is vague line of conflict right in the midst of a good chunk of Ukraine.
That suggests to me the Russians are able to bring the fight well into Ukrainian territory.
This war is not being fought in Russia proper, recently annexed territory notwithstanding.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 16 2022 6:43 utc | 324
I attempted to post a comment with additional argument and evidence in support of Berletic, and against the “fact checker.”
To my shock, my comment was immediately removed (like in seconds… which I discovered when I tried to edit it to add another link. When I tried to repost the comment, I was not able to do so. Is this a common occurrence? How is it done? What “community guideline” could I have violated. My censored comment is below the line. If anyone is able to copy and post it, and it remains up, please let me know. Perhaps it was all just an innocent technical glitch. I tried to pass the info on to Brian by other means, but he does not make his contact info available.
YouTube uses software to delete comments. The current policy does not allow the person whose comment was deleted to again post a comment for that video. I have stopped posting links in YouTube comments since at least part of the time a link seems to be grounds for a comment to be deleted (in addition to words or phrases that they are excluding).
Posted by: Simon | Oct 16 2022 8:49 utc | 325
Russ Bentley just was in a video with photos of nuclear components removed from an intended false fla5.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=910&v=zqeCoNnQ8PQ&feature=emb_title
interview video and photos
Posted by: NJH | Oct 16 2022 8:50 utc | 326
preemptively nuking all known enemies. The most dangerous first.
All foreign countries with US labs, the US, the Brits, the French, the Germans, the Georgians etc etc.
There shall not be a World without Russia.
Posted by: CarlD | Oct 15 2022 14:59 utc | 280
Can someone tell us what type of trolling this is? The poster should be preemptively barred. Also someone is posting anti-Semitic comments under Aristodemos’s name.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Oct 16 2022 16:07 utc | 327
What front? There is vague line of conflict right in the midst of a good chunk of Ukraine.
That suggests to me the Russians are able to bring the fight well into Ukrainian territory.
This war is not being fought in Russia proper, recently annexed territory notwithstanding.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 16 2022 6:43 utc | 326
Russia has advanced into Ukraine, but that doesn’t change the issue raised, which was Ukraine being able to do these large troop accumulations and then attack (counter-offensive). The Ukraine anti-aircraft defense still gives themselves significant cover from the Russian Air Force.Pundits and commenters state that the Russian Air Force has “air superiority” or “near air superiority”. But it seems overstated.
Although the reports the other day talked about drones takin g out 3 SAMs in the northern Kherson area and that then allowed Russian aircraft to hit the Ukrainans hard, forcing a retreat.
Posted by: Simon | Oct 16 2022 20:23 utc | 328