Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 9, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-169

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Comments

From Slavyangrad

By Zastavny
The appointment of General Surovikin as commander of the SMO somehow failed to capture the essence of the event, which was nothing less than the de facto removal of the Chief of the General Staff. At least, he was removed from command of the special operation. Sladkov wondered why there was no post of commander of special operations before, it was so simple – the special operations were commanded by the Chief Operative Directorate of the General Staff, directly controlled by N.G.Sh. i.e. Gerasimov.
And what does it mean to transfer command of the SMO to a specific person, General Surovikin? It means that the General Staff is either completely removed from command of the airborne forces, including in the person of General Gerasimov, or now the General Staff is completely controlled by General Surovikin (this is more probable).
In both situations, Chief of Staff Gerasimov is being “moved” away from direct control of Russia’s most important military campaign for a very long time. In essence, it could be called a soft suspension.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/12872

About Surovikin.
Surovikin is in charge not of the Air Force, but of the Aerospace Forces. That is, not aviation, but interspecific (this is important!)
A fundamentally new, strategic type of troops. Surovikin has a scientific degree – and his articles, which in a small number have been made available to the public – are about INTER-SPECIES interaction. That is, how to link different types of troops into a single whole and achieve a synergistic effect.
It was under him that 95% of the territory of Syria was recaptured
He built a fire system in such a way that he beat them on the way. Others didn’t succeed.
He is one of the best military leaders in Russia. Or maybe even the best. The only thing that can be said for sure is that he always tries to protect his soldiers
The soldiers love him precisely for this: his orders are reasonable, he does not throw them into a meat grinder.
It was Surovikin who managed to pass troops through the desert in Syria under American satellites unnoticed and go to the rear of the Americans.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/12880

Posted by: Down South | Oct 9 2022 13:04 utc | 1

Just a thought about the methods used to attack the bridge… some have suggested placed charges based on the ‘clean cut’ sections of roadway.. a possibility… however, I would suggest that can be considered unlikely, as why would the saboteurs only target one directional span. If they could place charges successfully on one span, surely they could have placed charges on both spans, the rail spans or the pylons, and made sure of the objective (ie doing maximum damage and putting all crossings out of action)?

Posted by: DDK | Oct 9 2022 13:11 utc | 2

The escalation continues. Meanwhile, Russia is building its troops. Whenever Russia mobilizes those troops, they will make quick gains. Most likely the main offensive will be in the Donetsk area. While Russia recently gave up territory in the Kherson and Kharkov areas, it made some gains in the Donetsk area. Gains in the Bahkmut area are of strategic importance.
Whenever, the Russians start to take Donetsk and it looks like all of Donetsk will be taken by Russia, this will mark a defining point where the West will either capitulate or escalate more. I think they will escalate more.
Continual escalation is exactly why this conflict will eventually become nuclear. And that will not be nukes in Ukraine. It will nukes in mainland USA and any NATO country that attempts to retaliate from Russian’s first strike upon the USA.
I see the taking of Donetsk as a key marker that will indicate soon nuclear attack upon the USA.

Posted by: young | Oct 9 2022 13:24 utc | 3

Apologies if this has already been posted, but this is an important read:
Politics by Other Means – Bigserge substack

This is a strange spectacle. Putin is plodding his way through the boring legalities of annexation, seemingly deaf to the chorus which is shouting at him that his war is on the verge of total failure. The implacable calm radiating – at least publicly – from the Kremlin seems at odds with events at the front.
So, what really is going on here? Is Putin truly so detached from events on the ground that he is unaware that his army is being defeated? Is he planning to use nuclear weapons in a fit of rage? Or could this be, as Clausewitz says, the mere continuation of politics by other means?

Of all the phantasmagorical claims that have been made about the Russo-Ukrainian War, few are as difficult to believe as the claim that Russia intended to conquer Ukraine with fewer than 200,000 men. Indeed, a central truth of the war that observers simply must come to grasps with is the fact that the Russian army has been badly outnumbered from day one, despite Russia having an enormous demographic advantage over Ukraine itself. On paper, Russia has committed an expeditionary force of less than 200,000 men, though of course that full amount has not been on the frontline in active combat lately.
The light force deployment is related to Russia’s rather unique service model, which has combined “contract soldiers” – the professional core of the army – with a reservist pool that is generated with an annual conscription wave. Russia consequentially has a two-tiered military model, with a world class professional ready force and a large pool of reserve cadres that can be dipped into, augmented with auxiliary forces like BARS (volunteers), Chechens, and LNR-DNR militia.

Putin lacks a coercive organ as powerful as the Communist Party, which had both astonishing material power and a compelling ideology which promised to bring about an accelerated path to non-capitalist modernity. Indeed, no country today has a political apparatus like that splendid communist machine, save perhaps China and North Korea. So, in the absence of a direct lever to create political – and hence military – mobilization, Russia must find an alternative route to creating a political consensus to wage a higher form of war.
This has now been accomplished, courtesy of western Russophobia and Ukraine’s penchant for violence. A subtle, but profound transformation of the Russian socio-political body is underway.
Creating Consensus
Putin and those around him conceived of the Russo-Ukrainian War in existential terms from the very beginning. It is unlikely, however, that most Russians understood this. Instead, they likely viewed the war the same way Americans viewed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan – as justified military enterprises that were nevertheless merely a technocratic task for the professional military; hardly a matter of life and death for the nation. I highly doubt that any American ever believed that the fate of the nation hinged on the war in Afghanistan (Americans have not fought an existential war since 1865), and judging by the recruitment crisis plaguing the American military, it does not seem like anyone perceives a genuine foreign existential threat.
What has happened in the months since February 24 is rather remarkable. The existential war for the Russian nation has been incarnated and made real for Russian citizens. Sanctions and anti-Russian propaganda – demonizing the entire nation as “orcs” – has rallied even initially skeptical Russians behind the war, and Putin’s approval rating has soared. A core western assumption, that Russians would turn on the government, has reversed.

Simultaneously, Putin has moved towards – and ultimately achieved – his project of formal annexation of Ukraine’s old eastern rim. This has also legally transformed the war into an existential struggle. Further Ukrainian advances in the east are now, in the eyes of the Russian state, an assault on sovereign Russian territory and an attempt to destroy the integrity of the Russian state. Recent polling shows that a supermajority of Russians support defending these new territories at any cost.
All domains now align. Putin and company conceived of this war from the beginning as an existential struggle for Russia, to eject an anti-Russian puppet state from its doorstep and defeat a hostile incursion into Russian civilizational space. Public opinion is now increasingly in agreement with this (surveys show that Russian distrust of NATO and “western values” have skyrocketed), and the legal framework post-annexation recognizes this as well. The ideological, political, and legal domains [In Russia] are now united in the view that Russia is fighting for its very existence in Ukraine.

Putin, very simply, could not have conducted a large scale mobilization at the onset of the war. He possessed neither a coercive mechanism nor the manifest threat to generate mass political support. Few Russians would have believed that there was some existential threat lurking in the shadow – they needed to be shown, and the west has not disappointed. Likewise, few Russians would likely have supported the obliteration of Ukrainian infrastructure and urban utilities in the opening days of the war. But now, the only vocal criticism of Putin within Russia is on the side of further escalation. The problem with Putin, from the Russian perspective, is that he has not gone far enough. In other words – mass politics have already moved ahead of the government, making mobilization and escalation politically trivial. Above all, we must remember that Clausewitz’s maxim remains true. The military situation is merely a subset of the political situation, and military mobilization is also political mobilization – a manifestation of society’s political participation in the state.

There are really only two ways to interpret what is happening. One is the western spin: the Russian army is defeated and depleted and is being driven from the field. Putin is deranged, his commanders are incompetent, and Russia’s only card left to play is to throw drunk, untrained conscripts into the meat grinder.
The other is the interpretation that I have advocated, that Russia is massing for a winter escalation and offensive, and is currently engaged in a calculated trade wherein they give up space in exchange for time and Ukrainian casualties.

Russia will likely continue to pull back over the coming weeks, withdrawing units intact under their artillery and air umbrella, grinding down Ukrainian heavy equipment stocks and wearing away their manpower. Meanwhile, new equipment continues to congregate in Belgorod, Zaporizhia, and Crimea. My expectation remains the same: episodic Russian withdrawal until the front stabilizes roughly at the end of October, followed by an operational pause until the ground freezes, followed by escalation and a winter offensive by Russia once they have finished amassing sufficient units.
There is an eerie calm radiating from the Kremlin. Mobilization is underway – 200,000 men are currently undergoing refresher training at ranges around Russia. Trainloads of military equipment continue to flood across the Kerch bridge, but Ukraine’s offensive plods on with no Russian reinforcements to be seen at the front. The disconnect between the Kremlin’s stoicism and the deterioration of the front are striking. Perhaps Putin and the entire Russian general staff really are criminally incompetent – perhaps the Russian reserves really are nothing but a bunch of drunks. Perhaps there is no plan.
Or perhaps, Russia’s sons will answer the call of the motherland again, as they did in 1709, in 1812, and in 1941.
As the wolves once more prowl at the door, the old bear rises again to fight.

As I have noted repeatedly: Ukrainian “victories” which do not involve the capture or destruction of significant Russian military assets is Twitter war.
The reality of Russian/LDPR/Rosguardia forces being outnumbered in Ukraine cannot be denied; one of the easiest ways for a qualitatively outmatched but quantitatively superior force to fight against a foe is simple to always minimize combat but overlap the front so as to threaten logistics and cut off detachments for storming. Whether this was the Ukrainian General Staff’s strategy – posterity will determine but that this is happening now is abundantly clear.
The fact that no such cutoffs have occurred is a strong indicator. The well-documented logistics buildups in Crimea, Belgorod, Belarus and other places is also a strong indicator.
Let the idiots, concern trolls and war pornsters do their thing while the real soldiers and military/political leaders do theirs.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 9 2022 13:26 utc | 4

Heaven, is rhat real?
https://twitter.com/jimmy19443312/status/1578483397558554624?s=46&t=_pNXlFbhH_6c-zRn4rtSoA

Posted by: njet | Oct 9 2022 13:26 utc | 5

@DDK #2
Anyone suggesting shaped charges are idiots. Shaped charges would take down the pillars – that is what would prevent rapid re-building of fallen spans. Spans falling down would also cut off the entire bridge – not just one side/one section.
It is 100% clear that the attack was span-surface – the video is quite clear. And while spans do require time to rebuild, they do not require anywhere approaching the time as fundamental support structure.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 9 2022 13:28 utc | 6

They are still strategising how to take control of ZapNPP…
https://twitter.com/rafaelmgrossi
Rafael MarianoGrossi. Director General of the @IAEAorg
International Atomic Energy Agency
1/ Oct8: The resumption of direct shelling, hitting #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant’s sole source of external power, is tremendously irresponsible. #ZNPP must be protected. I will soon travel to Russia & again to Ukraine to agree on a protection zone. This is an imperative.
2/ International Atomic Energy Agency. @iaeaorg·. Oct 8
Ukraine’s #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant must be urgently protected, IAEA Director General @rafaelmgrossi says after plant loses all external power due to shelling.
3/Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. @DrTedros
Oct 9: Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant situation in #Ukraine is deeply concerning. Safety & health of populations must be safeguarded.
Agreement on a nuclear safety & security protection zone is an absolute & urgent imperative, as @iaeaorg & @rafaelmgrossi say. Russia must end the war.
4/ @rafaelmgrossi. Oct 6. On our way to Kyiv for important meetings. The need for a Nuclear Safety and Security Protection Zone (NSSPZ) around #Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is now more urgent than ever.
5/ Oct7: Excellent meeting w/ @ZelenskyyUa. on the current situation.
I reiterated @IAEAorg will continue to be guided by int’l law & we made progress towards a nuclear safety & security protection zone at #Zaporizhzhya NPP. I’ll return to Kyiv soon to continue this important exchange.
How many think the Kerch Bridge was supposed to be taken out so they could attack Zaporizhzhya????
Grossi popped up that ex’s day squawking alarm at a power cut at the plant.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 9 2022 13:29 utc | 7

The “week in Review” needs to acknowledge Ambassador Elon Musk’s idea about establishing a special administrative zone for Taiwan.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 13:31 utc | 8

Posted by: njet | Oct 9 2022 13:26 utc | 5
Kadyrov said there are 70,000 Chechens on standby should they be needed.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 9 2022 13:33 utc | 9

@too scents | Oct 9 2022 13:31 utc | 8
Nutz … wrong thread … oh well.
Adding … the bridge saboteurs 40t truck bomb sure was a damp squib.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 13:36 utc | 10

“Meanwhile, Russia is building its troops. Whenever Russia mobilizes those troops, they will make quick gains”
No.

Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 9 2022 13:37 utc | 11

Posted by: young | Oct 9 2022 13:24 utc | 3
I’m not sure Donbass territory by itself means anything for Nato. The electricity system of Ukraine might be a far more bigger deal, especially the rest of thermal power generation and potential inability to maintain nuclear power in the electric grid. It seems to be a slow boiling of the frog.
One DPR official said that there are 5000 Polish mercenaries on that front. That’s big. Most of these are Polish soldiers in the activated-deactivated-activated counting towards their service time, and probably applies to rest of nationalities too. The ones in the front can get paid $40k/month, there are also quoted several thousand $ / day. Maybe the latter goes to “specialists” operating certain weapon types like HIMARS.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 13:39 utc | 12

The moral justification for the war from Russia’s perspective is a holy war against Satanism. The slogan was delivered at the Red Square rally. https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1576126809993011205
Satanism should be better spelled out or else people will dismiss it. The cultural theorist Jung-Freud of Unz Review gave a lot of food for thought with his or her essay on building a unique Russian identity and maintaining the conviction to finish the war. https://www.unz.com/jfreud/can-russia-survive-the-neo-barbarian-onslaught-of-the-west-under-the-control-of-satanic-jewish-supremacism-what-must-russia-do-to-revive-the-culture-and-push-back-against-globo-homo-lunacy/
According to Jung Freud, it starts with being honest about Jewish power. “The current US and EU animus against Russia was cooked up mostly by Jews.”
“The US is run by Jews who oppress whites by invoking black holiness, and if anything, blacks happily collude with the Jewish Empire for money and prizes (just like white cucks and Hindus do). So, if China and Russia really want to counter Jewish Power that controls the US, they are better off with PLM or Palestinian Lives Matter.”

Posted by: flaunting2 | Oct 9 2022 13:45 utc | 13

If I was doing the Russian planning it would include a stunning surprise timed for the US Elections. As others have pointed out the
current Ukie “victories” will lose their luster by then.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Oct 9 2022 14:00 utc | 14

“Meanwhile, Russia is building its troops. Whenever Russia mobilizes those troops, they will make quick gains”
No.
Posted by: Fnord73 | Oct 9 2022 13:37 utc | 11
What a hoot! it’s just like the old days, when hasbarabots hung around 24 hours a day to deny any criticism of Israel. Now it’s NATObots but they’re doing the same thing, only in far greater numbers. Israel only paid for one to hang around, but now it’s half the commenters. Still the US has a lot of money to throw around and waste.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 14:04 utc | 15

@c1ue | Oct 9 2022 13:28 utc | 6

It is 100% clear that the attack was span-surface – the video is quite clear.

I agree.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 14:07 utc | 16

@Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 14:07 utc | 17
Pictures of the span underside. Should be very easily repaired.
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1578867525462667265

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 14:10 utc | 17

Posted by: nrg-2u | Oct 9 2022 13:46 utc | 14

… five weeks from now?

1. In about four weeks the bulk of the newly mobilised Russian forces will be trained in the process of mass deployment to the front lines. These will be the reserves who’ve gone on refresher training. This will drive a rapid retreat of the AFU forces in the direction of Odessa.
2. Within five weeks the AFU forces currently on the frontlines of Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Karkhov will be decimated and driven back to defend Odessa. The offensive on Odessa will be in the early stages of initiation.
3. The EU will be experiencing extreme energy shortages for industry, increased mass protests due to rising energy costs and consequently increased political fractures among the states of the EU. Dozens of European manufacturing companies either declare bankruptcy, rescue sale or provide profit warnings.
4 Hungary and Serbia forced to toe the EU line on Russia under threat of complete gas cutoff, condemning Russia under EU duress.
5. Massive Ukrainian refugee influx into Europe, consequently spike in violent incidents between European citizens and refugees.
6. Collapse of the current UK government as Liz Truss and her sidekick Kwarteng are booted out of government as sacrificial lambs. New British puppets no better than the last are installed as the new sacrificial lambs.
7. War crimes charges brought against General Sergei Surovikhin at the International Court in the Hague due to the mass slaughter of AFU and NATO soldiers and claims of atrocities against Ukrainian civilians.
That, and much more …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 14:11 utc | 18

Still the US has a lot of money to throw around and waste.
Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 14:04 utc | 16
Yes…the high number of pro NATO, previously unheard of, posts in the past two or three weeks is noticeable.. Like a lot of the “counter offensive” as suggested by many observers, the key aim is to amplify and expand criticism of the Russian military and political leadership.. Shifting opinion in a forum is not the point, the point is to spread alarm and despondency amongst the thousands of Russian speaking ‘visitors’ to this site..
That’s why there’s a plethora of these types of posters recently.. That’s why the Western media are quoting voices on obscure Russian telegram channels critical of the military and political leadership of Russia, the illusory, empty steppe gaining UKR counter offensive is at least 50% psy op, hence ‘stunts’ like the truck bomb, again primarily about headlines and morale sapping, but of insignificance militarily. I’d suggest bearing this in mind when reading these critical, scornful, or ‘concerned’ posts.. They are psy op operatives.

Posted by: Gabriel in Ireland | Oct 9 2022 14:22 utc | 19

-in five weeks…
Ukraine will likely besiege Kherson after pushing Russia out of other areas west of the Dniepr. Russians will continue talking about doffing their gloves, raising eyebrows, and waiting on the 5th wave of conscripts.

Posted by: James Grip | Oct 9 2022 14:26 utc | 20

This is how “civilised”, “fair-minded” British journos can be: sicko Guardian journo celebrating three civilian deaths

Posted by: lulu | Oct 9 2022 14:26 utc | 21

The most significant bit of news this week came out of OPEC Plus because the most formidable weapon in the US arsenal is the dollar. For now.

Posted by: chunga | Oct 9 2022 14:44 utc | 22

US does not have a lot of money to throw around, US has a lot of FIAT money to throw around.
US is a debt deadbeat, freeloading the world by money printing. Just by raising interests to fight Biden money printing inflation, US Fed has been accused recently by the Wall Street “Investors” type of “enslaving tens of millions of workers to lower paying jobs due to the upcoming recession”. https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/10/02/you-werent-supposed-to-see-that/
All these Ukrainian optics were dictated/directed by the US Empire to divert people’s attention. US/NATO/Ukraine are desperately losing, and just thrashing about cluelessly.
Wait till the winter comes, the best season for Russian army in Ukraine.

Posted by: KitaySupporter | Oct 9 2022 14:51 utc | 23

@2 DDK
Bridge is under camera surveillance 24/7 from all possible angles. Check out the vids from the guards room.
So it either was a missile or a bomb in the truck, car is too small.
If it was a missile, they would have hit the fuel waggons at the apex of the brdige, where the steel arch is, to cause max damage.
So it was the truck. They could only come from the Russian side, since the Crimea side has a x-ray machine, and they would have picked up the explosives.
And once the cargo got dropped off, they had only one pass, since otherwise after drop off it’s contents would have become known and this mode of sabotage would have been prevented by FSB.
Their timing was obviously off, since they wanted to hit the fuel-wagons at the apex of the bridge, over the steel arch section, where it would have caused max damage and severed all links (rail, road, comms, gas, marine). So they probs realised this and took what they could get. With only half-assed results.

Posted by: tunabe | Oct 9 2022 14:58 utc | 24

Maybe naive on my part, but what if Russia is keeping an eye on the results of the midterm elections before striking back?
Neocons have total control of the western political narrative at the moment. They seem to be itching for a direct conflict and to date Russia has denied them their Pearl Harbor/Jan 6 moment.
Lots of “commentators” are screaming how russia is doing nothing (as if Putin cares about western timetables).
If so, we might see the winter offensive starting off in November (or maybe January when the lame duck session is past)

Posted by: Meh | Oct 9 2022 14:59 utc | 25

I don’t agree that the US has a lot of money to throw around actually. They have lots of “money” but as VVP pointed out you can’t eat it or use that for fuel. Money is just a token – a store of value. But the USD (and the GBP and the Euro) is no longer that. Who really has any faith in any of them anymore? The whole thing works until it doesn’t and we seem to be very close to that now.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Oct 9 2022 15:02 utc | 26

Saw an article this morning claiming that Germany only has about 2 days supply of ammo left for conventional war. Gave too much away.

Posted by: Leroy | Oct 9 2022 15:02 utc | 27

They keep trying to get Russia to overplay its hand with this bridge attack and the pipelines. Expecting a huge response and screaming about the use of nukes. Russia and Opec turn around and raise the price of oil. Europeans are starting to protest against Russian sanctions because they refuse to starve and freeze for their idiot leaders. Russia just needs to reverse a few ukranian successes and keep playing the slow game. You ruin the west financially and you’ve won. The war is just to keep people’s attention of the collapse of the western monetary system.

Posted by: Watzov | Oct 9 2022 15:12 utc | 28

The US spends the most but gets the least for it of anyone.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Oct 9 2022 15:20 utc | 29

The third rate presstitute media hack stenographers at the British Daily Mail are getting so rabid and deranged that they will soon have to rebrand their organ as the Daily Terrorist.

Posted by: Paul | Oct 9 2022 15:21 utc | 30

I don’t agree that the US has a lot of money to throw around actually.
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Oct 9 2022 15:02 utc | 27
They have enough, far more than anyone else, and then milk the European allies if need be. Unimportant whether it’s ‘fiat’ money or not. They are able to create it and spend it, a tax on the hard work the US commenters here do.

Posted by: laguerre | Oct 9 2022 15:29 utc | 31

Continual escalation is exactly why this conflict will eventually become nuclear. And that will not be nukes in Ukraine. It will nukes in mainland USA and any NATO country that attempts to retaliate from Russian’s first strike upon the USA.
I see the taking of Donetsk as a key marker that will indicate soon nuclear attack upon the USA.
Posted by: young | Oct 9 2022 13:24 utc | 3
Nonsense. Theres not gonna be a “first strike” on USA.

Posted by: HERMIUS | Oct 9 2022 15:29 utc | 32

c1ue @4 – Yes, your post foretells the near future. Putin and his core group have gamed this well.

Posted by: Paul Spencer | Oct 9 2022 15:33 utc | 33

VIDEO FROM TODAY REPORTEDLY SHOWS WAGNER FORCES ENTERING BAKHMUT
https://www.bitchute.com/video/jvuV9YmAWz5m/

Posted by: YIU | Oct 9 2022 15:40 utc | 34

Bolton calls for the assassination of Putin:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1578601485432418304
Now there’s a man who could do with one of Putin’s famous polonium mojitos …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 15:41 utc | 35

About the bridge explosion and the hysteria in the internet and MSM:
I’m far from being an expert in bombs, but I’m tired of reading dozens of theories from experts wannabe.
That it was a missile or two, that explosives were planted under the bridge, that a water drone was used, etc.
I remind all of you about explosions at Oklahoma and Buenos Aires in 194 and 1995, made with vehicles loaded with about 2 Tons 0f fertilizers made with fast oxidizer ammonium nitrite, and an arrangement to make the vehicle work as a shallow load (partly directional). The energy released was about 4.2 GigaJoules/Ton. Consider that 1 KTon tactical nuke has 1,000 times more energy.
Clearly, from Maxar picture, it can be seen that MOST of the energy was directer toward the other bridge, at the
exact moment that a train loaded with fuel was passing (6 AM). Also, from the video at the moment of the explosion, it can be seen HOW huge amount of water was falling from the left to the right of the road. This is
perfectly compatible with the section of the bridge falling and hitting the water below.
My conclusion was: 1) The bomb was in the truck, disguised as a cargo for civilian uses; 2) It was detonated by
the driver, which was a radical person (probably a dissident with religious belief in self-immolation); 3) It can be seen how the driver was adiusting the speed (less than 50 Km/Hr), to match the position of the train at the EXACT HOUR (6 AM); 4) It was a terrorist act, which makes me fear of what could happen in the future, unless
extraordinary measures of security be adopted. It can happen again, anywhere in any country at the region.
Probably the driver was an ISIS asset living there, groomed by foreign intelligence agencies. And only a few
countries have the capability to design such terrorist act, which takes a lot of intelligence gathering, logistic
and a dense network of “operatives”.
This is my humble opinion. Russia never saw this “low tech” action coming, in the age of satellites and missiles.
The “west” is itching for escalation, and Russia (Putin) has shown a lot of restraint and patience to NOT GET OUT of the goals of the SVO and declare war. Also, it’s complicated to retaliate proportionally without being accused
of war crimes by the “west” and of civilian suffering.
For me, the only option is: eliminate all the sources, storage and logistics to manage FUEL. Not electricity, just fuel for civilian and military uses (and every single refinery, half-owned by russian oligarchs).

Posted by: Ryck | Oct 9 2022 15:46 utc | 36

Arch @ 36
The war criminal Bolton says Putin is a legitimate military target and should know he’s on the USA hit list. As the ‘west’ is in a desperate crisis situation, I’d advise Putin not to go to G20.

Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 9 2022 15:47 utc | 37

The Russians have their own time table and I prefer for them to manage their own business. They have done well enough with the resources at hand. Taking and controlling territory is not as important as coming back to fight another day.
Z does not care about his troop losses, which are hard to replace. He seems to have an infinite supply of weapons, not all of which is reaching the front. The successful jamming of all Ukie comma is a great move.
If it were not for Blinken’s war, Zelensky’s war would have been over a while ago.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 9 2022 15:50 utc | 38

Intel Slava Z has this on their Telegram channel. Who knows.
“Explosions are heard in Kiev.
In many regions of Ukraine, air-raid signals are being sounded.”

Posted by: chunga | Oct 9 2022 15:52 utc | 39

tunabe @ 25

So it either was a missile or a bomb in the truck, car is too small. If it was a missile, they would have hit the fuel waggons at the apex of the brdige, where the steel arch is, to cause max damage.

Unless the optically guided missile in the last seconds mistook the big white truck for the big white train car. I know I mentioned this yesterday but if we’re going to speculate might as well cover all the bases. If it was a missile we will never know just like the Moskva, it was just too big a fuck up to admit. And, if it was a missile, expect more just like the the Antonovsky bridge till it’s knocked out.
People keep saying west is desperate, desperate to hurry up not to give up, to get it all back on schedule which was supposed to be collapse and regime change and all over in a few months. But they had a Plan B and they’ve been applying it coolly, methodically, and incrementally. I said a while back the Izium surge was their move to normalize NATO ‘irregulars’ as the real fighting force in UKR.
They are testing RFs real red lines the ones NATO can’t handle, the nuclear ones or more likely conventional hypersonics on NATO targets. When they pass one they escalate. The bridge will from now on be under relentless attack, if not then MoD got on the phone with DoD and told them they have one hour to evacuate some NATO base somewhere, or maybe better NATO HQ in Brussels. Someone asked where the barflies think things will be in three months, I don’t think the Kerch bridge will still be standing unless RF scares the shit out of NATO in some way.
BTW Brian Berletic on his telegram notes that on the instantly available UKR commemorative postage stamp there are two explosions on the bridge, maybe the other one failed? That would also suggest a missile as it would be near impossible to sync truck bombs.

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Oct 9 2022 15:54 utc | 40

Posted by: Ryck | Oct 9 2022 15:46 utc | 37
This analysis seems very reasonable and one that I share as well, except that it’s uncertain that the driver was an ISIS asset or an asset of the lingering Islamist terrorist groups of Chechnya, Dagestan or Ingushetia.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 15:55 utc | 41

thread:

Zhorin posted video of executed civilians with hands tied behind their back being dumped into a mass grave in Kharkov.
Him and his unit have been killing anyone with a pro Russian for some time now. Once he shared photos of what they had done to party of life members.

https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1579074363370110976

Posted by: too scents | Oct 9 2022 16:03 utc | 42

Posted by: Meh | Oct 9 2022 14:59 utc | 26
“Maybe naive on my part, but what if Russia is keeping an eye on the results of the midterm elections before striking back?”
I don’t think Russia cares much about who wins the phony election. There’s really only one party in the US, but to give the illusion of choice, this party is divided in two. The policy of these two wings so closely mirror each other that it matters not which one is actually in (so called) control.

Posted by: Peter Hegger | Oct 9 2022 16:04 utc | 43

Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 9 2022 15:47 utc | 38

, I’d advise Putin not to go to G20.

Knowing Putin, he’d do exactly that …

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:06 utc | 44

Another failure by Russia….

Ukraine behind Crimean Bridge blast – US media
The attack was masterminded by Kiev’s intelligence services, two major outlets claim

https://swentr.site/russia/564343-ukraine-behind-crimean-bridge-explosion/
Russia are not even able to spy on the ukraininan intelligence to find out about their plans!
Why have Russia not liquidated the entire ukrainian intelligence already??

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:08 utc | 45

gottlieb | 9 oktober 2022 15:47 utc | 38
Yes, considering that Fidel Castro was the victim of attempted murder hundreds of times by CIA, you really wish that Putin will be vigilant!

Posted by: Northern Eve | Oct 9 2022 16:11 utc | 46

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:08 utc | 46
The bridge has been repaired already. Traffic is normalizing.
Looks like your precious Kiev ‘intelligence’ fired a blank.
All that clever planning and coordination – for what ?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:12 utc | 47

Sometimes stuff gets past the censors. A very short YT clip of Sky news interviewing a worn out Ukrainian female nurse. She says that at first she treated professional soldiers and now she is treating untrained soldiers who do not know what they are doing. Seems to be recent.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/W4fVSggqL7A

Posted by: Erelis | Oct 9 2022 16:13 utc | 48

Pakistan, Ukraine, And The Race For Third-Party Ammunition

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 9 2022 16:17 utc | 49

Only a fool would think burning diesel would damage the railway bridge, to many believe the false explanation of the 911 bombing, you just cannot destroy steel with diesel fire

Posted by: gimmeabreak | Oct 9 2022 16:21 utc | 50

This analysis seems very reasonable and one that I share as well, except that it’s uncertain that the driver was an ISIS asset or an asset of the lingering Islamist terrorist groups of Chechnya, Dagestan or Ingushetia.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 15:55 utc | 42
I’m new here (2nd. post) and don’t know the rules for not being “offensive” to anyone’s religion. I’ll only add that dissident chechens found shelter in Kiev and that they are hated by chechens who sided with Russia. I don’t want to add anything else on this topic of religion, which I don’t understand (I’m catholic).
On other aspects of the SVO, which I follow daily through different channels (“western” MSM, Telegram and others), I think that the greatest failure of russian military since April is the lack of will to create a special unit devoted EXCLUSIVELY to track, mark and destroy ANY SINGLE PIECE of the Ukraine’s warfare devoted
to the shelling of civilian areas and depots (HiMars, M777 and other systems) PLUS the erradication of ANY single subsystem devoted to long range AA: radars and launchers for S-300, Buk, etc.
It should be a SEPARATE UNIT, capable of long-range stealth operation in ALL Ukraine, which should be fed with
the latest and most exact data gathered by radars, drones and satellites (less than 10 minutes delay). All these subsystems are camouflaged and many are hidden in bunkers on the field (you make one bunker in two weeks).
Unless effective and lethal countermeasures be permanently adopted, there NEVER will be a peaceful life in the
new territories. It has to be done in parallel with current war efforts by Russia, which seems to be lacking real-time ELINT and SIGINT fed to “war computers” (that integrate everything from far away).

Posted by: Ryck | Oct 9 2022 16:24 utc | 51

from a humble mostly lurker appreciation for good commentary. and i’m happy putin hasn’t taken the bait, my 2 cents

Posted by: line islands | Oct 9 2022 16:25 utc | 52

Putin was the best thing to happen to USNato and Ukronazis.
While Putins dismantling company SMO ltd is busy with scrapping ukronatonazi equipment and buildings the Ukronatos seizing territory, destroying russian infrastructure and killing pro Russian civilians.
Good strategy for winning the hearts and minds of pro Russian citizens in Ukraine. Meanwhile few pro russian citizens have been rewarded for their loyalty to Russia (see intelslava)
https://t.me/intelslava/38659
GRAPHIC
Ukrainian neo-Nazi Zhorin from Azov showed footage of the massacre of the civilian population of Kupyansk
These civilians are pro Russians and they were killed for just that reason.

Posted by: gonzo | Oct 9 2022 16:25 utc | 53

Arch Bungle
LOL it could have gone the exact opposite way, that both lane of brdiges were destroyed – next time they might succeed, what are you to say then? “Oh that bridge is not that important anyway.”?

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:28 utc | 54

Regarding the truck/not truck debate.
I’d possibly hold off judgement until Pepe Escobar publishes (from his telegram):
re: Crimea Bridge terror. Needs some extra corroboration. Will include it in my column – which was nearly finished, hopefully out tomorrow.
Just a taste:
What you see – an ISIS-style truck bombing – is not what you get.

Posted by: RJ | Oct 9 2022 16:36 utc | 55

too scents @ 43
The video is now heavily pixelated andTwitter has a warning. They do allow it.
For those who missed the fun what is shown is three civilian “collaborators” being rolled down an embankment and into a pit. One appears to still be alive. There is a sexual angle as well that I would rather not describe.
Babi Yar re-enactment. All loyal “We Stand With Ukraine” fools are complicit. Your masters and owners take pleasure from this.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 9 2022 16:36 utc | 56

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:28 utc | 55

LOL it could have gone the exact opposite way, that both lane of brdiges were destroyed

No it couldn’t.
That it got that far was a miracle at all.
It was a moonshot.
The fact is, Putin was almost a decade ahead of these guys in the modular, replaceable design of the bridge.
The Kerch bridge is essentially a concrete pontoon bridge. Modular. Highly repairable at short notice.
They can try as many times as they like, it’s just going to end up with modular sections getting replaced within a day or a few days.
Impressive.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:37 utc | 57

Photos from under the bridge, the road section that is partially collapsed, appeared today and there is no burn or anything visible. At least from that angle it seems nothing exploded under it.

Posted by: rk | Oct 9 2022 16:39 utc | 58

The margin of safety of the Crimean bridge is very high – its supports must withstand an earthquake (or a phenomenon that can be triggered by an underwater explosion) of 9 points. This unique structure has increased seismic and impact resistance.
The project of the Crimean bridge provided for the installation of two separate sliding lashes supported by a single monolithic 12-pile structure, but also separately. If one whip is suddenly blown up, the second remains intact. The pile monolith, probably, can only be taken by a nuclear explosion.
The truck explosion broke two sections of the roadbed between the columns, which slid off in a way. But the main structure is intact. The Ukies has nothing that can destroy this bridge, so it is just PR by Zelly and the cohorts. How many weeks the Ukies had throwing super-duper Himars at Antonovski bridge near Kherson? With only few holes in the roadbed.
I still have strong feeling that this was an accident, not a terrorist act.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 16:40 utc | 59

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 16:40 utc | 60

How many weeks the Ukies had throwing super-duper Himars at Antonovski bridge near Kherson? With only few holes in the roadbed.
I still have strong feeling that this was an accident, not a terrorist act.

Too many coincidences.
We’ll know once the FSB unwinds the network around the truck driver and anyone who touched it.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:43 utc | 60

Arch Bungle
Yeah “miracle” like the
2 month and running counter offensive that Russia have not been able to stop,
miracle like Moskow ship sinking,
miracle like Dugina killing,
miracle like multiple attacks on Crimea,
Miracle of not being able to protect the nuclear plant,
miracle of releasing Azov leaders,
miracle that Ukraine win the infowar,
I wonder if you would call all those incidents a “miracle” if it was Ukraine that faced those deafeats. Of course not because you are in denial.

The fact is, Putin was almost a decade ahead of these guys in the modular, replaceable design of the bridge.

Your fixation and glorification of Putin is just perverse. Seek help. Please do not engage with me anymore thanks!

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:45 utc | 61

gimmyabreak at 51.
Steel loses its strength progressively above about 200°C. That is its yeild strength and elastic constants.
A highly stressed member relies on the high yield (Yp) strength of steel. If this Yp is reduced by being heated it causes structural failure.
In the case of 911 the vertical steel stanchions failed in (Euler) buckling, dropping onto the floor below, causing a domino failure.
911 was not an inside job, the engineer who planned it knew his subject (NB, columns also concrete clad to give fire resistance of 1 hour to building code).
I can’t make this explanation any simpler, Google may help.
Oldengineer

Posted by: Oldengineer | Oct 9 2022 16:46 utc | 62

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:45 utc | 62

. Please do not engage with me anymore thanks!

Aha! You yield! I declare victory.
I’ve out-trolled the troll!

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:49 utc | 63

Why have Russia not liquidated the entire ukrainian intelligence already??
Because an attack on Langley and Vauxhall Cross would be an impetuous escalation that would create more problems for Russia than it solves.

Posted by: Dave_k | Oct 9 2022 16:49 utc | 64

Wel, well … the fact that it didn’t happen … tells that this may have been desperate improvisation attempt by Ukrainians.
Wake up call for the Russians for sure though, as they are continuing their nonchalant approach to this war.
Just two of my cents.

Posted by: Lungarchina | Oct 9 2022 16:50 utc | 65

You ve to give Putin credit that he rightly anticipated the Ukronato attack against Donezk and Luhansk.
What followed was not a cold and calculated response by Putin but a response driven by liberal humanitarian compassion for the enemies civilians who hate Russia and Russians even more after 8 months of SMO : “Jesus Putin reached out his hand and touched the Clown”
Extract from the SMO-Bible (military guidelines)
Sermon on the Mount Kreml:
– Matthew Vlad 5:39
Turn the Other Cheek
“but I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also”
– Matthew Vlad 5:44
Love for Enemies
“But I tell you, love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you”

Posted by: gonzo | Oct 9 2022 16:50 utc | 66

From Tass, a Ministry of Defense report for 9 October. It seems more brief than the summaries I’m accustomed to seeing posted at MoA, but at least it’s something (for those of us who cannot view online video of the MoD daily briefings).
A general comment about the Tass articles I’ve seen: they seem to liberally employ a format akin to

According to [spokesperson], X.
“X plus epsilon,” said [spokesperson].

I guess the writers are pressed for time. Or perhaps they’re bots?!

Posted by: David Levin | Oct 9 2022 16:51 utc | 67

We’ll know once the FSB unwinds the network around the truck driver and anyone who touched it.
Arch Bungle @ 61
Sure, we’ll have to wait for that. Only, Ukies can’t destroy that bridge. Maybe the US can, but they’d need to use a nuclear explosion at the base of the columns and destroying few bases won’t be enough. But the US won’t use nukes, for they are simply cowards, good enough to fight sandal-clad goat herders.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 16:57 utc | 68

Info for now;

Due to the fact that railway traffic on the bridge was almost completely resumed on the very first day after the emergency, and automobile traffic was partially resumed along the remaining intact part of the bridge, and with the help of ferries, there was no serious impact on either the supply of the peninsula or the delivery of fuel, ammunition and reinforcements to the troops did not happen. As a result, restrictions on the supply of fuel to Crimean motorists and guests of the peninsula, as well as essential products on the territory of this subject of the Russian Federation, which were supposed in the first hours, were not introduced.

And,

Moscow will take strong measures in response to the attempt to undermine the Crimean bridge. But there is no need to hurry in this matter. It is important to check everything to the smallest detail. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief will make the appropriate decisions…” Lieutenant General Andrey Gurulev, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 17:06 utc | 69

Re: Crimea bridge
PLEASE! Stop making any issue about the “clean cut” on the downed section of the bridge. Not only does anyone who uses that “clean cut” to imply something expose themselves as idiots who know nothing about engineering, they expose themselves as clueless idiots who have never even taken a casual look at typical bridge construction.
All bridges have mechanisms to cope with expansion and contraction of the roadbed due to thermal cycles. In beam style bridges (of which large portions of the Kerch Strait Bridge is) these mechanisms are particularly obvious in the form of expansion joints that exist between sections of the bridge. These expansion joints are almost always located directly over the piers that support the bridge, since the piers have bearings on top that support each end of each beam segment. The bearings allow each bridge segment to move independently so that they can expand and contract along with the ambient temperature and not buckle the beams. The expansion joints allow this movement to occur without disturbing the road surface.
This “clean cut” that people are talking about in the imagery of the terrorist attack site is nothing more than an expansion joint in the bridge between a segment of the bridge that was displaced from its bearings and a segment that remained in place.
Really folks, every one of you making hay about the “clean cut” on the bridge needs to go out and spend about ten or fifteen minutes examining a nearby highway overpass. Damn, some of you even live under bridges and you never bothered to look up at how the damn thing was put together? What dull and incurious bastards you are.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:08 utc | 70

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 17:06 utc | 69

… But there is no need to hurry in this matter. It is important to check everything to the smallest detail. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief will make the appropriate decisions…” Lieutenant General Andrey Gurulev, a member of the State Duma Defense Committee.

I doubt there has ever been a state in history having this much destructive capacity yet choosing to exert this much restraint.
This is a new paradigm.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 17:10 utc | 71

Will there be retaliatory strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure facilities? This cannot be ruled out.
What kind of objects can these be? Military experts speak, first of all, of several railway stations on the Ukrainian-Polish border, through which trains with Western weapons pass. On a number of bridges in the Kyiv, Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions. And also, about power plants that feed a number of cities where military equipment is being restored.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 17:10 utc | 72

Why Russia does not use its very powerful conventional bombs like
“Father of all bombs”?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_of_All_Bombs

Posted by: marko | Oct 9 2022 17:11 utc | 73

Because an attack on Langley and Vauxhall Cross would be an impetuous escalation that would create more problems for Russia than it solves.
Posted by: Dave_k | Oct 9 2022 16:49 utc | 64
Before going there they could still remove the puppets in Ukr and the mercenaries. But no, nazis must be left untouched, Kiev and Lvov protected and nazi supporters warm and happy to party. You do know there are 5k Polish mercenaries near ZNPP? It’s news on TASS today.
I think in less than 2 weeks we’ll see if this new general is from the same school of dumb like the others. Sure, maybe they’re good but blocked by politicians to do their job, we don’t know. Either way, they’re paralyzed, taking hits all day long.
I see Medvedev disappeared after the bridge terrorism. Now everyone knows he’s just a talking head, what he says means nothing.

Posted by: rk | Oct 9 2022 17:12 utc | 74

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:08 utc | 70

What dull and incurious bastards you are.

This is a microaggression.
I feel discriminated against.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 17:15 utc | 75

@ William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:08 utc | 70
>> go out and spend about ten or fifteen minutes examining a nearby highway overpass.
And when DHS asks me what I’m doing, what should I say??

Posted by: dfg | Oct 9 2022 17:22 utc | 76

dfg @76: “And when DHS asks me what I’m doing, what should I say??”
Try “I’m planning my attack on the Crimean bridge!” Maybe they’d give you some pointers.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:24 utc | 77

Wiki – remind you of any tribe that has been deeply ingraining these qualities…. for centuries and centuries? Teaching dual-citizenship, dual-morality and ultimate superiority, very, very explicitly. Shall we call Biden et al what they are? Clinical psychopaths, and their puppets.
“Psychopathy, sometimes considered synonymous with sociopathy, is characterized by persistent antisocial behavior, impaired empathy and remorse, and bold, disinhibited, and egotistical traits.”

Posted by: Nancy | Oct 9 2022 17:26 utc | 78

@ Arch Bungle | Oct 9 2022 16:49 utc | 63
LOL
Nice job, Bungle.

Posted by: dfg | Oct 9 2022 17:27 utc | 79

The russian ruling class in and around the Kremlin probably forgot to mention that for them, the SMO is not against the “respected partners” but against the donbass militia and more broadly against any trace of communist heritage. He, indeed, should drink that tea with the tiny sultan and the coke actor of Bandarestan. Russian People and its army are not at fault. Decades of Gorbachev, then Eltsin and now a billionaire class of binationals, making sure that Russia was not prepared for the full-spectrum war against the empire of chaos. May some in the military save the nation.
The fundamentalists libertarian capitalists around Putin and Medvedev, “trained” by the US kleptocratic elite academia, systematically sabotaged the three pillars of the state: public education, public health and the military. Yes some investment in physical infrastructure (the shiny stuff that allows big contracts and managers stuffing their pockets) But salaries of healers, teachers and warriors were kept at disastrous level. No significant investment was made in public infrastructure (housing, public transportation beyond Moscow). VVP reign saw even a competition with the “partners” on the topic of deindustrialization. This is what is saving the pathetic Kremlin, thank God for the stupid euro UK and US thugs. Some in Beijing and Tehran were politely warning Moscow…
So many will die because of those stupid money eaters.
https://t.me/strelkovii/3458
Meanwhile Russia, Belgorod and Kursk regions are under increasing attacks including vital infrastructure. https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/43140

Posted by: Kareem | Oct 9 2022 17:28 utc | 80

The New Atlas (Land Destroyer) makes the same point that the Ukraine military is being destroyed in exchange for mostly empty territory. This Winter, Russia will have a much larger army in the field and its military will then take back the land against a depleted Ukrainian force.
Was is hell.

Posted by: Krollchem | Oct 9 2022 17:31 utc | 81

reply to 62
Ridicule me as you wish but I continue to see this whole SMO affair as spooky, weird, unlike anything I’ve witnessed in my lifetime.
Think about it as a matter of design at its beginning. Does Putin say, “OK, we will invade Ukraine, confront NATO, risk nuclear end of civilization, and engage in a global economic war…..and win”. Seriously? It looks insane.
I can only compare this with Hitler or Napolean as to wild boldness ( no, I’m not equating Russia with Hitler, just the crazy gamble of it all). And I have no analogy for Putin’s ceaseless patience towards a goal – except maybe Lee Kuan Yew and that wasn’t war.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 17:37 utc | 82

Arch Bungle @75
I am confident that a Millennial would take being called “dull and incurious” as a compliment. They spend hours in front of mirrors practicing being as vacant and slack-faced as possible, so calling them “dull and incurious” gives them feelings of authenticity and accomplishment.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:39 utc | 83

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 16:08 utc | 46
There’s no difference between “Ukraine” and “CIA” or “US media”. “Ukraine” is an extension of “CIA” through actions and “US MSM” is an information outlet. So in essence CIA enabled to Ukraine do something to the bridge and are announcing it through the US MSM.
Would you like to nuke Washington to solve it? I don’t think so, but maybe a bridge-for-a-bridge would be in place.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 9 2022 17:44 utc | 84

Eighthman @82
You fully deserve any ridicule directed your way.
You’ve been trolling the fora here for some days now and you still do not realize that the Russians believe they are under attack? You have not yet absorbed the reality that the Russian belief that are under attack is based upon decades of fact?
Are you really too stupid to understand Russia’s motivations here or are you paid not to understand?

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 9 2022 17:48 utc | 85

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 17:37 utc | 82
I doubt the original plan and the present plan look much alike:
What rational planner could’ve anticipated the EU mass-suicide?

Posted by: John Kennard | Oct 9 2022 17:48 utc | 86

Putin – This is a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the critical civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation. Authors, performers and customers of the Crimean bridge bombing – Special Services of Ukraine
Bastrykin – FSB officers managed to identify suspects in the organization of the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. Citizens of Russia and foreign countries helped the Ukrainian special services in the preparation of the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge. The case of the explosion on the Crimean Bridge was brought under the article “terrorism”

Posted by: rk | Oct 9 2022 17:51 utc | 87

My analysis of the bridge explosion is:
-the source of the explosion was the truck which must have carried a bomb other than its fuel tank;
-it detonated successfully at the selected point on the bridge;
-the location of detonation was where the segments begin to incline upward;
-this point was chosen because it was where explosive force would push a segment off the pilings instead of pushing straight downward on a level segment;
-the train fire was an unexpected side effect.

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 9 2022 17:52 utc | 88

Here is an excellent video of the Kerch crossing during construction.
You can see, especially from about 5.30 mins onwards that the roadway approach viaduct spans are supported on two reinforced concrete pillars with a crosshead at their tops which in turn supports six bearings, three for each carriageway, therefore there are three longitudinal steel beams for each cway, spanning between the piers.
Looking down at 3:56 mins you can see that there is no longitudinal break between the carriageways. It seems to be one deck for both carriageways. At 3:56 also you can see that in fact there are no transverse expansion joints at all at most piers. The road deck is continuous between joints which occur every N piers (not sure about N, maybe 8 ?).
Hope this helps.
https://youtu.be/FjwDEVynbis?list=PLMTAUcHYogKl3QX-QWlzTKRHr2K7xG7Sh

Posted by: Lapin | Oct 9 2022 17:54 utc | 89

Gerasimov was due to retire prior start of the SMO. Time now to revisit the original plan.
We’ll know more tom or Tuesday about appointments and maybe change of status of the SMO..

Posted by: Lozion | Oct 9 2022 17:59 utc | 90

reply to 85
I have no idea what you’re talking about. You make no sense. I recognize the acknowledged threat to Russia and have written at length about it. Perhaps ‘truly stupid’ needs to be spoken to your mirror.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 18:00 utc | 91

Another view; N=5
https://youtu.be/rB7uyz5j1YI?list=PLMTAUcHYogKl3QX-QWlzTKRHr2K7xG7Sh

Posted by: Lapin | Oct 9 2022 18:06 utc | 92

Well look at this news, this if for all the morons being in denial by claiming Russia can protect their border just fine:
Number of Ukraine’s attacks at Russian bordering regions grows significantly — FSB

According to the FSB, “over the past week, more than 100 shelling attacks of 32 settlements in the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions were recorded with the use of multiple launch rocket systems, cannon artillery, mortars and unmanned aerial vehicles”

https://tass.com/russia/1520047
What are you going to say now? That FSB are “trolls”?

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 9 2022 18:07 utc | 93

@Lapin | Oct 9 2022 17:54 utc | 89
Super video, beautiful bridge! Thanks for posting that.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 9 2022 18:09 utc | 94

https://www.riotimesonline.com
/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/
german-government-furious-as-friendly-countries-charge-astronomical-prices-for-gas/
Germany has become extremely reliant on liquified natural gas from the United States to keep its industrial sector and economy afloat, and since the Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage, Germany has become even more dependent.
The pipeline explosion changed the entire geopolitical position of Germany, as it cut off any hope Germany had of restarting relations with Russia and regaining access to cheap gas supplies, which have served as the bedrock of the country’s industrial sector.
Given the circumstances, Germany is growing angry over the “sky-high” gas prices it has to pay from so-called “friendly countries.”

Nobody likes getting ripped off, but getting ripped off they are. All because their government is controlled by Blinken.

Posted by: Chaka Khagan | Oct 9 2022 18:09 utc | 95

Lapin @ 89, 92
Thank you for the YT links!

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 18:15 utc | 96

reply to 86
Oh, I wholeheartedly agree! There were rumors that Lavrov and Putin were shocked by EU’s eager, zealous suicide.
But you see THAT only makes the whole thing more weird. Who could ever have imagined such bizarre behavior especially by Germany? Or that Russia could do such effective workarounds on a global scale? The Neo Cons didn’t foresee this.
If you witnessed someone hit their number on roulette several times in short order, you’d be shocked but Russia has done it so far. God? Aliens? OverSoul? I’m stunned.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 9 2022 18:15 utc | 97

Observation & Suggestion:
It is one thing to point out/report actual events and contextualize them. Much of what is posted by contributors other than our host, even as “reports”, are clearly made up propaganda and most of us have no difficulty identifying such. Endless prognostications about things that are partially known and based mostly on projections is nothing more than talking to hear one’s self talk, as far as I can tell. For What? Future bragging rights?
An awful lot of what is being “passed around” is reminiscent of seriously childish spectators attending a primary grade or early secondary school sport competition. A lot of figurative chest beating, baiting, insulting, taunting, gloating etc.
The nature of Good and Evil seems would be a bit beyond all that for most of us; and anyone here extolling the deeds of the Zelinsky Regime, whether from UK or US or EU or NATO point of view are no better than collaborators with the deep evil of NAZISM and supporters of the Genocide being openly practiced once again in our sphere.
BTW – The Russian do not just “feel” or “believe” they are under attack. They do, and everyone here should, recognize THAT as the reality which it is; and what it is, exactly, that is attacking.
There are clearly a number of posters who have zero words of substance to add to the content presented by the Bar host. If regular sincere posters would refrain from responding to them, the meaningful throughput here might just improve dramatically.

Posted by: DoesItReallyMatter | Oct 9 2022 18:18 utc | 98

Former White House national security adviser John Bolton calls for Putin to be assassinated.
So Bolton is just a private citizen now, and is calling for the assassination of a country’s leader.
Is that not a crime?
Some people may call for his assassination!

Posted by: Matt | Oct 9 2022 18:22 utc | 99

Those people glad to see destruction of such monumental structure must be scumbags! I cannot find a word for that, they are absolutely reprehensible persons!

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 9 2022 18:27 utc | 100