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October 06, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-167

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on October 6, 2022 at 14:21 UTC | Permalink

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I posted this at the end of the other thread but I think it gives an interesting explanation for the sudden USF advances.

From Slavyangrad

Interesting piece by voenkorkotenok
It is no secret that the enemy is using AI and neural networks. The computer processes information and "highlights" troop concentrations via mobile signals, messengers, and phones - where vulnerable positions are. The AI identifies weak and strong positions, where to attack, and where it is better not to move. When all the moves have been calculated, all that remains is to make a decision.
An example - the Ukrainian generals did not accept the plan for a counter-offensive at Kharkov, they were against it. The handlers insisted on the plan, the Americans pushed it through. Contrary to the opinion of the AFU command, an order was given to attack Balakleya-Yuzum, etc. The Ukrainian army was unsure of this operation, it went on strike, it was a forced order. But the result worked, marched like a tank through the mud.

Ukraine uses western interactive maps where everything is completely marked - tank columns, the concentration of equipment, etc. Any chief of staff - brigade, regiment etc. - to exclude "friendly fire" makes online corrections and they do not have difficulties with passing as we do (but it does not always work)...

On AI, we are only under development for the military department. On interactive maps (not monitors for conference calls), there might be something somewhere, but we don't see it, we don't hear it at the operational level.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:24 utc | 1

I still think Russia will win. Come hell or high water. Z

Posted by: g wiltek | Oct 6 2022 14:25 utc | 2

Kiev's economy will contract by 35% in 2022, compared with a 4.5% fall in Russian GDP according to the World Bank.
Driving a few borrowed tanks across an empty field or two may change the colors on the map and make for good PR, but I don't see how it helps Ukraine's long-term economic and therefore military viability.
Parallel to the US Civil War, Russia is choking the enemy's economy and waiting for the right moment to strike. They just need a Grant to get the job done this winter.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 6 2022 14:33 utc | 3

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:24 utc | 1

"Interesting", yes. If there ever was a 100% proof CIA bullshit narrative, it is that the Ukraine "wins" because of superior Western technology.

The secret Google super AI. They bought a Chinese Go master to advertise it. There is no bottom floor for how much the CIA narratives suck today.

Posted by: veto | Oct 6 2022 14:34 utc | 4

Interesting analysis from Larry Johnson

The following video shows you the “success” of the Ukrainian offensive. Pay close attention to the number of large cities they are capturing.

Cities? Nope. None. Rolling across wide open plains represents a feel good moment, but this territory is not defensible once Russia decides to counter attack because Ukraine does not have the air power and artillery fires to withstand a concentrated attack. Russia, however, has the air capability, tanks, artillery and rockets to sustain an attack once they decide to move.

It appears to me that Russia is baiting Ukraine to take territory and then face the task of trying to take a city Russia holds, such as Kherson. If Ukaine wishes to oust Russia from Kherson it will have to mass forces necessary to conduct the block to block fighting that Russia did when it captured Mariupol. Remember that?

Even if this is not a Russian plan (i.e., baiting the Ukrainians) the outcome will be the same. Ukraine will have to conduct a frontal assault on the city of Kherson and, in order to do this, will have to mass troops and equipment that will be easy targets for Russian artillery, missiles and bombs. Ukraine has no military power to counter what Russia can unleash. So, if your panties are in a knot over “Russia losing territory”, I suggest you take a nap on the fainting couch and calm down.

Russia, for its part, is in the process of incorporating the Donetsk and Luhansk militias into Russia command structure. Why? This is essential in order to conduct coordinated maneuver warfare, which is what Russia is expected to unleash once its forces are properly manned and in position.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:37 utc | 5

The US is there to play with their toys, not to fight.

Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Oct 6 2022 14:42 utc | 6

Again, scanning over Rybar's latest, what is going on? RF destroys ' 5 tanks', 2 tanks, 5 trucks, and so on.

This starts to look perfunctory, like Ukr. is 'phoning it in'. How can anyone take a counter offensive seriously when it involves such minimal attack forces?

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 6 2022 14:46 utc | 7

A convergence of the geo-political, the battle front, and the Bible scriptures is occurring regarding the Russian Bear.

Soon the bear will arise and devour much flesh according to Daniel 7:5. The devouring of much flesh is not the Ukrainian army even though Russia has destroyed many Ukrainian troops. Most likely they will continue to do just that in the coming weeks and months.

The devouring of much flesh by the Russian Bear occurs after it is found with 3 ribs in its mouth (Daniel 7:5). These 3 ribs may be Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.

Soon Donetsk will fall to the Russians. Whenever, Russia has Donetsk in its mouth between its teeth, the Russian Bear may arise and devour much flesh. Most likely the devouring of much flesh will include the total destruction of the USA.

When Donetsk falls to the Russians, immediately get out of the USA. Go on a long vacation outside of the USA or any of its territories. Stay away from any NATO military installation.

Posted by: young | Oct 6 2022 14:51 utc | 8

I posted this at the end of the other thread but I think it gives an interesting explanation for the sudden USF advances.

An example - the Ukrainian generals did not accept the plan for a counter-offensive at Kharkov, they were against it. The handlers insisted on the plan, the Americans pushed it through. Contrary to the opinion of the AFU command, an order was given to attack Balakleya-Yuzum, etc. The Ukrainian army was unsure of this operation, it went on strike, it was a forced order. But the result worked, marched like a tank through the mud.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:24 utc | 1

If true, UA generals were probably against it because they expected a counter attack. Which indeed would have been devastating.

But it never came, instead there was a retreat and they moved into empty terrain largely unopposed.

So it's not clear how much the "AI" actually helped other than identifying where the thinned out defenses were. But do you really need AI for that?.

The main decisive factor remains that there are apparently large Russian troop and equipment concentrations in Belgorod, Crimea and along the Azov Sea coast that are just sitting there waiting for god knows what and doing nothing while the front was collapsing.

What exactly the plan is here I have absolutely no idea, but there better be one...

P.S. I call BS on "AI" making the decisions in this case -- you generally need vast amount of data to train algorithms, but this is the first large-scale war in 80 years. How exactly were these NNs trained?

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 6 2022 14:54 utc | 9

Posted by: Tom | Oct 6 2022 14:33 utc | 3

There were news that Kiev regime has devoted very little / no financial resources to any other than military purposes. Doubt they will survive this winter at all.

What is more unbelievable is that they are still exporting electricity into EU, Zelensky just threatened to cut it all off soon. It might become vice-versa especially if their electricity generation become legitimate targets. EU might actually transfer electricity the other way, which will accelerate its own collapse instead and hinder any kind of support. All this will be occurring.

If Russians manage to JUST somewhat hold status quo / repel assaults, they will easily win this whole thing in both economic war against EU and military fields.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2022 14:55 utc | 10

US-supplied HARM anti-radiation missile fired by Ukrainian forces shot down over Donetsk, Donetsk Republic, West Russia.
5 missiles from US-supplied HIMARS rocket launcher systems fired at Antonovsky bridge, air
defenses successfully shoot down warheads.
Ukrainian forces shell Russian village of Gordeevka, Kursk region, resulting in several homes damaged.

EU Parliament passes resolution calling on European countries to greatly increase their military aid for Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 14:56 utc | 11

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 6 2022 14:46 utc | 7

They have the nazi battalions in the rear making sure that no one retreats, only advances. The fodder isn't probably told anything, just that you must attack this route in this direction. There were earlier reports that Kraken had welded tank hatches shut for their crews (don't know if true, might be, japs did it for kamikaze pilots) and they seem to periodically send small DRG groups in exactly the same spots even if the first one fails. The idea is just probably to try and overwhelm defenders regardless of losses.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2022 15:03 utc | 12

Not sure how AI magically creates total battlefield coverage. Mapping enemy locations comes from observation- be it visual, radar, satellite, field reports, etc.
AI could be used for superior mapping if all battlefield data were continuously and reliably transmitted to and collected by an AI system...

But to make the jump to crediting AI with UA's recent 'successes' is to assume that they've access to better battlefield intel than the Russians. Considering Russian success in counter EM measures, including communications disruptions and destruction of most, if not all, Ukrainian radar observation capabilities, -I've no doubt that they are well aware of NATO satellite capabilities and are actively countering those as well, short of S-500ing them out of the sky- I find it a bit of a stretch.

Also, as I understand it, it was no secret that the Allied defense lines were thin at each UA counter-attack point, nor were the offensives any surprise. Does the AI get credit for Ukraine publicly advertising its counter-offensive plans, too?

I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just looking to bounce some ideas and learn when I'm horribly wrong.

Posted by: Flyrelly | Oct 6 2022 15:03 utc | 13

Posted by: Tom | Oct 6 2022 14:33 utc | 3

There were news that Kiev regime has devoted very little / no financial resources to any other than military purposes. Doubt they will survive this winter at all.

What is more unbelievable is that they are still exporting electricity into EU, Zelensky just threatened to cut it all off soon. It might become vice-versa especially if their electricity generation become legitimate targets. EU might actually transfer electricity the other way, which will accelerate its own collapse instead and hinder any kind of support. All this will be occurring.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2022 14:55 utc | 10

Three weeks ago the Russian's took out the Kharkov TPP, the one nearby Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, and if I recall correctly another one in Krivoy Rog.

UA rebalanced the grid, but those TPPs are out of commission for good. And of course they lost the ZNPP too.

What is saving them is the fact that deindustrialization plus depopulation in the last 30 years meant that demand for electricity fell in fall, and that several additional millions left the country in the last 7-8 months too, further reducing it.

But the ZNPP alone provided 20% of electricity and now another 10% or so are gone with the TPP strikes.

With just a handful other strikes everything will collapse -- the grid won't be able to rebalance and there isn't going to be enough electricity generation to satisfy demand in wintertime, imports will be needed. Where are they going to come from?

Perhaps that will eventually happen.

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 6 2022 15:03 utc | 14

The problem with Larry Johnson's analysis is that the US doesn't do house-to-house fighting to weed out only the fighters.
The US destroys and flattens entire cities and leaves the bodies, civilian or soldier, there to rot (i.e. Mosul).
Putin has mentioned Mosul in the past, and he mentioned Dresden, Hiroshima, et al, in last week's speech. I don't think that Russia would bait the US to destroy a city.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 6 2022 15:06 utc | 15

A CIA nonsense story from the Intercept but with some interesting details:

The CIA Thought Putin Would Quickly Conquer Ukraine. Why Did They Get It So Wrong?
High-tech surveillance may have blinded the U.S. to how corruption has weakened the Russian military.

The CIA assumed that Russia would want to conquer Ukraine. That wasn't and isn't the plan.

Here are the interesting details the Intercept buried:

When it became clear that the agency’s predictions of a rapid Russian victory had been wrong, the Biden administration sent the clandestine assets that had been pulled out of Ukraine back into the country, the military and intelligence officials said. One U.S. official insisted that the CIA only conducted a partial withdrawal of its assets when the war began, and that the agency “never completely left.”

Yet clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when U.S. intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army. There is a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February, several current and former intelligence officials told The Intercept.

Secret U.S. operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a presidential covert action finding, current and former officials said. The finding indicates that the president has quietly notified certain congressional leaders about the administration’s decision to conduct a broad program of clandestine operations inside the country. One former special forces officer said that Biden amended a preexisting finding, originally approved during the Obama administration, that was designed to counter malign foreign influence activities.

So Biden is using a 'Russiagate' finding about some memes on Facebook that allegedly came from Russia to wage a war.

Posted by: b | Oct 6 2022 15:10 utc | 16

The US excels at video games, including war games.

I would assume that knowing who your troops are is enough to give an advantage. Anyone who isn't identified on your neural link would be the enemy.

Didn't the Russians complain that the attackers used Z and V on their tanks and confused them into not attacking them? And now we hear that a million Russian uniforms were stolen? This sounds like a problem to me.

Having real time info on friend would let you know who foe is, and if the Ukie/NATO troops have that they have an advantage.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 6 2022 15:11 utc | 17

AI is superior at finding optimal solutions. In warfare this could be finding the most optimal points of attack. This is done by AI computing billions of calculations per minute.

Think of it as a game of chess. A simple AI system is already capable of defeating Grand Master just by calculating millions of possible moves in the future and choosing the optimal one.

A military grade AI most likely will be superior to a whole army of battle analysts. And yes an AI is only as good as the quality and number of data inputs (intelligence, radar/satellite imagery, etc)

I remember Putin once said in the future wars will be fought by AI and the country that masters this first will reign supreme.

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 6 2022 15:13 utc | 18

That Slavyangrad story about AI is very retarded. Ukr had many friendly fire events, constantly and with heavy losses. Latest big one was 1-2 weeks ago.
In addition to that, most of their targeting is done by traitors in Donbass. They can't see well with satellites for some unknown reason. If they don't have a person on the field to correct fire they shoot idiotic, including from himars, even on stationary targets like buildings.

Some of these so called "Russian" channels are probably nato or simply the opposition politicians.

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 15:14 utc | 19

Russia is ready to stop the special military operation to protect Donbass on its own terms. At the same time, the territories that have become part of the Russian Federation can no longer be the subject of negotiations with Ukraine, said Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Federation Council, on October 6.

Certainly, the subject of negotiations cannot be the entry into the Russian Federation of four new subjects, this is out of the question. This is already part of our Russia. But we are ready to stop further hostilities, but on the terms that Russia will offer.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 6 2022 15:17 utc | 20

@ young | Oct 6 2022 14:51 utc | 8 who wrote
Most likely the devouring of much flesh will include the total destruction of the USA.

Another faith breather in the bar, beware!

I was just explaining on another thread how this civilization war is not an extension of politics between sovereign nations because those in the West are not sovereign and that includes the USA.

The point I want to make here is that the civilization war we are experiencing is not between sovereign nation's political superstructure but between a somewhat group of sovereign nation's political superstructure (China/Russia axis) and the God of Mammon political superstructure which is not that of a nation, but of a cult of humans with supra-national powers based on ownership/control of global finance.

Bulling, as we are seeing in the West, is a potential presage to raw, animalistic violence by the cult of anti-humanistic losers.

I hope it doesn't happen but this is not a normal "war" and it is going to extend far beyond Ukraine

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 6 2022 15:17 utc | 21

The term AI is a marketing/investment tool. It's all machine-learning. Doesn't mean it's not processing/analyzing tons of data points and providing 'solutions' to 'problems', but it doesn't have a thought in its virtual head.

Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 6 2022 15:20 utc | 22

Zely just demanded from the "West" pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Russia

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 15:24 utc | 23

The AI theory is pretty flawed.

The russians definately knew about the gathering of troops prior to the attack in kharkov. No AI was necessary to see, what 20 TG channels saw. And even without AI russia had more than enough time to react.

Another thought experiment (i already posted it but would like to discuss it): assuming the russians as well as the US used sophisticated AI systems, do you think the two AIs would give the same answer to an identical question?

Posted by: Orgel | Oct 6 2022 15:27 utc | 24

@gottlieb | Oct 6 2022 15:20 utc | 22

The term AI is a marketing/investment tool. It's all machine-learning. Doesn't mean it's not processing/analyzing tons of data points and providing 'solutions' to 'problems', but it doesn't have a thought in its virtual head.
Yes, "AI" is a term designed to bamboozle those who don't know, i.e. 99%. There is no intelligence there.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 6 2022 15:33 utc | 25

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:37 utc | 5

Thinks for linking to that article. It states the hopelessness of the Ukrainian position and an embedded Berletic video hammers home the supply problem. Martyanov also arriving at the same conclusion. TTG on Colonel Lang's site setting out the opposing case:-

TTG's article being important because that is the take I see almost exclusively in the UK press, often in UK blogs, and from time to time in releases from the UK MOD.

So those are the opposing takes. I don't see how the Johnson take can be disputed; but however the fighting goes it must end soon. "b"s last article deals with the sanctions war and with the disastrous results of that war for us in Europe. Far worse off are the various peoples of the Ukraine, no matter their loyalties, who have for eight years found themselves caught up in a conflict few of them looked for and that most, I believe, would simply like to see stopped.

Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 6 2022 15:41 utc | 26

@All comments about "AI".

State of the art "AI" is nothing more than glorified statistics.
You put some data in a series of matrix operations ("neural networks") that have no basis in science (unless you count a high schooler's understanding of how neurons work) and calculate the probability against a known output.

That's it. It's useful for predicting if an picture is of a cat or not, getting it right 4 out of 5 pictures and little else.

We can derive the efficacy of this "AI" that's claimed to have been implemented on the Ukrainian battlefield by pointing out the fact that it's "decisions" lost 190k Ukraine soldiers, all of original Ukraine military, depleted half of NATO ground force weapons against <10k Russian losses, losing 15% of Ukrainian territory for two "victories" in Kharkov and Lyman.

Sounds about right.

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Oct 6 2022 15:42 utc | 27

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 6 2022 15:17 utc | 21
this civilization war is not an extension of politics between sovereign nations. The civilization war we are experiencing is not between sovereign nation's political superstructure but between a somewhat group of sovereign nation's political superstructure ..and the God of Mammon political super-structure which is not that of a nation, but of a cult
of humans with supra-national powers based on ownership/control of global finance. Bulling, as we are seeing in the West, is a potential presage to raw, animalistic violence by the cult of anti-humanistic losers. ..this is not a normal "war" and it is going to extend far beyond Ukraine

I agree I was going to post the following on the last thread, its time ran out so I will post it here.. the culprit you are looking for IMO is the owners of the digital platform. read on. .

Posted by: Scorpion | Oct 6 2022 10:02 utc | 240
US policy has been so conspicuously self-destructive that it’s hard not to wonder whether it might be intentional.
The nation poised to gain the most from self-defeating US policies is China.
Are the Zio-cons scheming to destroy the US and then dominate the New World Order that arises from its ashes?
from the
"Does the Empire harbor a secret death wish?"

<=I posted this hypothesis in April I think, it was taken down. :
the reason for Ukraine attracting Russia into war, is to set up the conditions needed to move all remaining important industry in the USA governed America to the Far East. and to split the USA into 6 or more nation states that can be pitted against each other in a continuum of the divide and conquer strategy.

Interesting that one of the four NordStream II lines is still in tack.. and Germany will not use it..
Germany is on the hit list to be divided.. into multiple tiny states. the great reset was the switch to the digital platform because it runs on top of the Internet.. <=the Internet is accessible by, and funded by, the public parts of the nation state governments, but the digital parts: smart devices and the software that make communication over the Internet possible are owned by private privatized everything mafia via the devise of copyright and patent laws and treaties.. These electronic devices and software are copyrighted, patented, and coordinated by consortium after consortium of standardization and are 100% owned by the very people who have set up these wars against humanity, Kennedy assassination, 911, Iraq, Afghanistan,Syria, Yemen and the Ukraine.
Its command center seems currently to be in Poland but it is highly decentralized and divided between the different oligarchs that own the corporations that own the patents and copyrights. Germany would be in the best position economically, if it were to be absorbed into Russia IMO, because Germany would be able to get the cheapest source of energy and become the industrial leader of the world having not only access to native Germany technology, but also to Russian, Chinese and Iranian technology and a market the USA and Britain will not be invited into for some time to come.
I offer this to explain the western cartel of nation states fears, but as powerful as they are, they don't have control over what is going to happen.. they are basically helpless because of privatization to stop this divide and decentralization of governments and leveling in size and capacity of nation state power that is happening. DAVOS and WEF here we come.

Posted by: snake | Oct 6 2022 15:43 utc | 28

The Russians are minimizing their exposure to limit their casualties, waiting for the right moment to pounce on the continuously smaller opposition. Straightening out the front, making it easier to defend but sacrificing the people in liberated villages and towns.

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2022 20:34 utc | 26

That theory doesn't really square with what is happening as we see repeatedly the same thing happening:

1. Ukies begin gathering forces in some location. This is so obvious that dozens of TG channels are talking about it for days.

2. Ukies proceed to assemble an attacking fist. There is no reaction even though a few Iskanders would vaporize them while they are concentrated and quickly end the whole exercise.

3. Ukies then attack exactly where they were expected to attack.

4. RU retreats without a fight.

5. The civilians who didn't manage to evacuate and who were promised protection "forever", are then slaughtered by Nazi death squads.

Meanwhile, as all this is happening, RU is blowing up repair shops deep in the UA rear, even though those repair shops aren't even valuable targets anymore as all the equipment now is Western and is flowing without any interference from Poland and Romania.

Absolutely none of this makes any sense.

Again, all the missiles wasted on repair shops and other meaningless targets could have stopped the attacks before they even started. And yet no attempt was made to stop them. And then Russian civilians paid the ultimate price for it.

You can claim this is some ultragenius multidimensional chess move all you want, that latter part alone makes this completely unacceptable.

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 6 2022 15:43 utc | 29

Ukrainian forces strike Energodar coastline with over 20 strikes from M777, hitting city’s industrial zone and near power plant.
That "now is Russia" story is only for twitter warrior Medvedev posts, it seems

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 15:49 utc | 30

AI is not that useful for a constantly changing battle field or where there are no rules. If I want to identify plants, bad fruit or skin cancer, I can train the AI to identify images. None of these things (plants, fruits) are trying to hide themselves, nor mess with me. If they were constantly changing or interfering with the observer, it wouldn't work at all.

I think what would work is to to collect signals (cell phones, thermal images from satellites or drones, visual images, coordinates and photos from field agents, and superimpose them into a composite map. Then, autistic like people with massive attention spans could pore over them and identify targets and patterns of movement or potential problems. Then strategists looking at the larger plan (who would be considering world war III, response to a nuclear attack, war in Syria, recruiting other countries to your side of the new multipolar order, Russia's place as a leader of one faction of the new world order) would adapt their plans. I expect that this is what Russia does to the best of their ability.

I could see tradeoffs like -- blow up the grid or bridge to impede a military movement, vs, having to rebuild the things later.

Posted by: PP | Oct 6 2022 15:50 utc | 31

Has anyone posted this yet? A really shrewd assessment of the state of the hostilities by Bhadrakumar, who really knows the politics involved. The EU is kaput. That alone is an immense boost for multipolarity. And while Europe descends into economic chaos, its people may reflect that, right now the USA is selling them LNG at 5 times what it costs in America and at prices degrees of magnitude greater than the Gazprom guaranteed prices it rejected about 18 months ago.

"..Certainly, the induction of 300,000 troops with previous military experience will impact the overall military balance to Russia’s advantage. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that another 70,000 men have also volunteered, which will put the total strength of the additional forces at around 370,000.

"Now, that is a huge increase. To get a sense of proportions, at the peak of the Vietnam War, the US deployment stood at around half a million troops. For the first time, Russia will have vast numerical superiority over Ukrainian forces. Therefore, it is entirely conceivable that the old pattern of “grinding” the Ukrainian forces may change and the objective will be to end the war quickly and decisively.

"The US decision to set up a command centre outside Ukraine (in Germany) seems to anticipate Russian attacks on command centres in Kiev and elsewhere with much bigger use of airpower, as in Syria. In fact, the new commander of the Western Military District Lt. Gen. Roman Berdnikov previously led the Russian intervention in Syria....

"..What all this means is that the three main power centers within the Eurozone and Britain are finding it hard to escape the old, dying industrial world of the 20th century and this is not the best of time to take on the half-million strong Russian allied forces in Ukraine, the Biden Administration’s bravado notwithstanding.

"Do not lend credence to the inaugural summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Prague on Wednesday bringing together the leaders of 27 EU member states and up to 17 non-EU countries – namely, the UK, Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Israel.

"The plain truth is that the European integration project is over and done with. Any attempt to impose it will produce severe backlash..."

Posted by: bevin | Oct 6 2022 15:58 utc | 32

reply to 29

You need to cite sources for your assertions. Predictable offensives are costly, even with a weak RF response. And no repair in UKR? Where is proof of this? Armor takes time and energy to move into repair facilities. I note Ukr is still using old Soviet gear, as with aircraft and T-64 tanks - as well as pickup trucks typical of half suicidal Somalis.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 6 2022 15:59 utc | 33

Seems to we're seeing an exercise in "who commits forces last" in an effort to get an intelligence jump on the other side.

The Israelis tried for years to get Russian air defences to go active and the Russian never took the bait. Now we see wild weasle raids using HARM missile and HIMARS being used to gather intel, test and map Russian air defences and EW capabilities.

I get the feeling that the Russians are watching and listening as to how Ukraine army 2.0 fights.

The Russians keep their true capabilities close to their chest. I wouldn't be surprised if phantom armies and other surprises start showing up on NATO maps prior to any winter offensive by the Russians.

The question is how much does Russia want to show to NATO because this is just the undercard ... the main event is with NATO proper

Posted by: Dave_k | Oct 6 2022 16:01 utc | 34

@3 Such an important statement deserves a link...

Posted by: dh | Oct 6 2022 16:02 utc | 35

@35 Meant for #23 ...sorry.

Posted by: dh | Oct 6 2022 16:06 utc | 36

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 6 2022 15:13 utc | 18

AI is superior at finding optimal solutions. In warfare this could be finding the most optimal points of attack. This is done by AI computing billions of calculations per minute.

This is nonsense.

These systems need to be trained on thousands of data sets to get any value out of them. With years of case based hardware and software evolution to shape the system to desired results.

Brute force computing yields nothing if it's garbage in.

And how many data sets do the Americans have to feed their buggy ML clusters? Every battle is a unique snowflake.

If they're using a.i for this it's as good as a magic eight ball.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 6 2022 16:06 utc | 37

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:24 utc | 1

On AI, we are only under development for the military department.

Can their a.i minimise casualties?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 6 2022 16:08 utc | 38

Indeed, what is the criterion of "winning" this war? I think the Russian strategy takes into account the fact or at least probability that the West is hellbent on nuking the whole country and then the entire planet.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 6 2022 16:15 utc | 39


Typepad shows a bug once again where a single post is pinned to the bottom of the thread.

This post always appears below all others in this thread:

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2022 20:34 utc | 40D

Posted by: jonku | Oct 6 2022 16:23 utc | 40

On a meta level, PCR actually mentioning ziocons by name is a big step.

So many complain about Euro leaders not acting in their constituents best interest. But what about regular Americans who have subject to the zog their entire lifetimes?

As others have noted, this conflict is about global control of humanity. They key is the nexus of $usd, mic & energy now being contested in Ukraine.

As such Ukraine is just a geographic placeholder but one important enough to determine whether a global zog will prevail.

Posted by: B9k9 | Oct 6 2022 16:24 utc | 41

Russia is now hitting the supply line to the"captured territory" of Lyman. Hard. If you look at a map that one road leading to the "successfully captured " Lyman is another Duck shooting invitation. But hey, you cannot expect a "military expert" to look at a map. Or know "captured territory" has to be supplied.

Waiting for the hysterical "analysts" claiming Lyman was the end of Russia for good and ever to say "it was just another Trap the Ukies happily walked into".

Not holding my breath.

Posted by: Franz Beckenbauer | Oct 6 2022 16:29 utc | 42

Gonna call BS on the AI bit as well... Battlefield awareness is all about detection. Recon, surveillance, observation. These things can be done with various instruments, satellites, UAVs binoculars, the human eye etc. Sure observational data can be fed in Hal The SuperComputer, but do you really need an "AI" to tell you to attack the weakest point on the line? It aint fuggin rocket surgery.

Posted by: Chevrus | Oct 6 2022 16:31 utc | 43

A repost from RT/Unz Review: "The permanent US national security state has been absolutely corrupted by absolute power. When the Cold War ended and the US emerged as a unipolar hegemon, the managers of empire started to believe “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality.” That’s hubris at best, psychosis at worst. They started to think they could get away with just about anything. …
But US policy has been so conspicuously self-destructive that it’s hard not to wonder whether it might be intentional. Could some hostile power have taken over the American brain and driven the nation to self-destruction, the way toxoplasmosis parasites take over the brains of mice and make them fall in love with cats?...
If there is a toxoplasmosis type parasite steering Uncle Sam’s brain, it would be the Zionist neocons. These people are drunk on Leo Strauss’s self-styled philosophy of evil. The whole notion of diplomacy and negotiation is foreign to them. They never met an act of extreme imperial chutzpah they didn’t like. From 9/11 and the wars it was designed to spark, to the 2014 de facto declaration of war on Russia through the coup in Kiev, to the recent blundering attempt to take Nordstream permanently off-line, the neocons keep doing insane things ostensibly designed to strengthen the US empire, but covertly undermining it."

Posted by: cerena | Oct 6 2022 16:32 utc | 44

People seem to be misundertandimg the term AI. AI is not a supercomputer that will fight the war for you. This is not hollywood. Its a cluster of processors that are trained with millions(billions) of data points over time. A data point could be anything. Temperature, season, location, air pressure, etc. Its already been proven to obtain optimal solutions at record times. This is already a fact.

Its just a matter of time this technology gets employed on the battlefield (unless it already has).

The people that say there is not enough war data points to feed this technology must have missed the last conflicts in Lybia, Syria, Afghanistan, etc.

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 6 2022 16:44 utc | 45

According to the Meme Scream Media, Russian losses are irreversible and Putin will use nukes any day now. Hysteria, it's what's for dinner.

Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 6 2022 16:46 utc | 46

An AI system is only as good as the training data that was used. It excels at classifying, but can't explain the results. The systems that beat chess and Go champions were trained using thousands of games, first historical, then played against human players, then against itself. Google uses uploaded pictures of known things to train their image search. For this to be a wonder-weapon on the battlefield, two things would have to exist: a set of training data and reliable real-time intelligence. There is no magic, it is just a distilled-down version of the training data.
The other thing is that there isn't anything that prevents the Russians from working on this too. Computationally, training is much, much harder than running a classifier once it is trained. You don't need much either way - some decent high end video cards suffice. The hardest part is putting together the data set for training.

Posted by: ian | Oct 6 2022 16:49 utc | 47

wagelaborer @17--

The Outlaw US Empire has no assets in Ukraine or nearby capable of flattening a city. If it were to try say a missile swarm attack, the places where those missiles were based would be destroyed and most if not all would be intercepted by Russia's AD. The same result would occur if B-52s or some other platforms were used. NATO is outgunned since the outset mainly because of the No Fly Zone and outstanding and very dense AD, which will likely become even denser. Plus, NATO's AF is no match for Russia's, and the Outlaw US Empire doesn't want to have its equipment shown as massively deficient, so it won't commit it, F-35 specifically.

What will Russia do next is THE question. Cannae comes to mind given the state of the battlefield. I'm also awaiting the entry of Belarusian forces into the play now that the incorporation legalities are over and Belarus can fulfill its Union State duties. Overall, I see Russia continuing to goad NATO into supplying Ukies with ever more weapons and ammo that acts to demilitarize its European members and cause further financial hardship given the Lend-Lease mechanics and self-imposed energy embargo.

As for the Ukie convoy sitting on the highway, what would happen if a hypersonic coming in at ground level smashed headlong into the convoy at Mach 6 or so--how far down the convoy would that one missile's kinetic impact go? 500-750 meters? Say 4-6 such missiles impacted the convoy at one-kilometer intervals leaving the mop-up to artillery....

The Energy Front--As I provided yesterday, Germany's main electricity exporter said it won't be exporting soon, and that will unbalance the entire European grid. Ukraine was exporting electricity but that will soon end. And when the electricity dies, how long will fuels for generators last since they compete with vehicle consumption? And if no electric locomotives, those diesel-electrics need diesel to move. So, NATO steals fuel supplies from its national inventories leaving less for civilian and industrial use NATO-wide, thus creating even more hardship for its citizens. Plus, Germany will certainly refuse to allow gas deliveries through NS2, which ought to rekindle demonstrations.

IMO, we can see the outlines of Russia's likely strategy, the broad strokes. The specifics will be known soon enough, and we can cease our speculations. Globally, the energy, food and trade/financial flows will continue to dominate, energy being key.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 6 2022 16:51 utc | 48

Mercouris is coming to the same conclusion as I have gathered from Rybar: Ukr offensives have slowed down, little is going on. More importantly, he hears reports that Ukr. is now doing the same thing as Russia did - pulling forces away from front lines and thereby leaving large areas poorly defended. Odessa in particular is interesting. An offensive that lacks mass armor isn't going to be much of an offensive. It will be just another passing observation on Rybar news.

Posted by: Eighthman | Oct 6 2022 16:53 utc | 49

@37, @ 42 your commens are nonsense,first AI is not machine learning, righ.Nevertherless the quote from from Slavyangrad leads to a wrong discussion, Slavyangrad is a clueless pro russian propaganda troll.
i think he wanted to say that NATO/US using extensively software for modeling different scenarios and their outcome on the battlefield, and ofc you can calculate and find the best point for an attack with given data , like number of vehicles, type of vehicles, fire range, moving range etc.

Posted by: public disorder | Oct 6 2022 16:58 utc | 50

I offer this to explain the western cartel of nation states fears, but as powerful as they are, they don't have control over what is going to happen.. they are basically helpless because of privatization to stop this divide and decentralization of governments and leveling in size and capacity of nation state power that is happening. DAVOS and WEF here we come.
Posted by: snake | Oct 6 2022 15:43 utc | 28

Interesting, interesting...

When all is said and done mayhap the Titan classes can battle it out amongst themselves leaving us ordinary folk alone. Though if history is any guide we will be countless ants trodden under the feet of such battling leviathans who care not for any death or mayhem left in the wake of their passage. I pray the now dominant powers are not willing to recklessly cast away billions of lives in the belief that their corruptly run perpetual growth kleptocracies are unsustainable. They are correct of course but the solution is not population but corruption control.

Posted by: Scorpion | Oct 6 2022 16:59 utc | 51

Next Odessa... I don't think it is Russia's interests to do so. It is the Portland or San Francisco of Ukraine and would cause more 5th Column headaches than it is worth.

As a gesture of kindness to a future more co-operative Kyiv government they could leave them that one port for trade.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 6 2022 17:02 utc | 52

Mercouris also said the Ukies are concentrating their troops and operations in the east to keep the Ruskies so busy thay don't take Odessa.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 6 2022 17:05 utc | 53

Maria Zakharova again gives the UNSG a black eye over his Ukraine position:

Question: On September 29, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres went on record with a very tough statement describing the referendums in Donbass and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions as an “annexation.” Has he offered any additional public explanations after that?

Maria Zakharova: First of all, a Secretary-General can have no independent “position,” especially on territorial issues. Under the UN Charter, this office implies the performance of functions of the top UN administrative official. This has been clearly indicated in the comments of the Russian Permanent Mission to the United Nations and by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

During his briefing on October 5, Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric, a person who speaks on behalf of Mr Guterres, seemed to be trying to find an excuse. But, in truth, we heard nothing new or reassuring. The Secretariat has once again reaffirmed its biased and unprincipled approach to the Ukrainian issue. We are sure that this situation must be changed. It is not to the advantage of the UN Secretariat or its head.

To believe the UN official, Mr Guterres made his September 29 statements based on the General Assembly’s decisions. Obviously, he meant Resolution 68/262, which was put to the vote in March 2014 and the subsequent anti-Russia decisions approved by the 11th special session of the UN General Assembly, which were also supported by far from all member states of the United Nations.

Paradoxically, the Secretariat representatives, while belabouring the General Assembly’s non-consensus decisions, forget about the documents that were unanimously approved by the UN Security Council. One such document was Security Council Resolution 2202 approving the Package of Measures for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. For seven years, Kiev openly violated its provisions. Specifically, both Petr Poroshenko and Vladimir Zelensky had no scruples about saying in public that it was null and void. We waited in vain for a denunciatory response from the UN Secretariat, something that prompts the conclusion that the UN Secretariat is highly selective about implementing the member states’ decisions.

The Secretariat representatives “forget” an important point, while speaking about the need to preserve Ukraine’ territorial integrity and basing themselves on some provisions of the UN Charter and the 1970 Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation among States in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations. The latter document states clearly that the above principle is only applicable to states “possessed of a government representing the whole people belonging to the territory without distinction as to race, creed or colour.” It is obvious that the Kiev authorities do not answer the description. Moreover, “Every State has the duty to refrain from any forcible action which deprives peoples referred to above in the elaboration of the present principle of their right to self-determination and freedom and independence.” I think there is no need to remind everyone of the seven-year-long shelling of Donbass.

On the whole, there are no “turning points” in the Secretariat’s rhetoric. The only thing they proved able to do was to polish slightly the Russophobic statements by the most rabid supporters of the Kiev regime.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 6 2022 17:06 utc | 54

Posted by: Dave_k | Oct 6 2022 16:01 er | 34

Thanks. Your whole comment is illuminating. Why, indeed, would one reveal all one’s capabilities to forces which are already hostile and may be about to become overt belligerents?

Posted by: Cortes | Oct 6 2022 17:09 utc | 55

Well, I guess this is Ukraine related. But funny.

Hurricane-Ravaged Florida Town Raises Ukraine Flag So Congress Will Send Aid

Which raises a question. Zelensky himself has demanded that essentially countries sacrifice the well being of populations for the sake of the Ukraine. Pundits are predicting push back by various populations over the hardships they must suffer for the good of the Ukraine. In Europe people may protest and gripe, but I don't see the leadership of those countries backing down in ruining the prosperity of their populations for the sake of Ukraine. The governments of course will resort to mass violence against their populations to control dissent.

Also what is the posture of the illegal and legal Muslim migrants toward the war?

Posted by: Erelis | Oct 6 2022 17:09 utc | 56

Posted by: Down South | Oct 6 2022 14:24 utc | 1

Sorry, I will believe that only after hard proof, such as technical details about the AI.

I don't think an AI can be trained to lead a real war. What training data would you use?

Posted by: Helmuth von Moltke | Oct 6 2022 17:10 utc | 57

The only thing Russia is doing now, is playing with her pray like a cat with a mouse. The result is the same but the feline gets her joy.
Putin just messed up the oil market, sending EU another killer blow.
Do you really think he has troubles in Ukraine with some farmers in sneakers?

Posted by: Poison Frogs | Oct 6 2022 17:21 utc | 58

The western "leaders" should listen to people like Valentina Matvienko, the speaker of the Federation Council. She is much more than Pelosi, or Harris of the US.

She said today that the territories that have become part of the Russian Federation can no longer be the subject of negotiations with Ukraine, and that Russia is ready to stop the special military operation (only) on its own terms.

Putin won't say directly, but she can. She was once the Governor of St. Petersburg, where Putin also comes from. By the way, she was born in the former Ukrainian SSR, but she is a Russian. She must be so dangerous, Obama had put her on his sanctions. And then Canada and the EU had also put her on sanctions. The big boys are afraid of a slight woman.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 6 2022 17:22 utc | 59

@ Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2022 20:34 utc | 58

Odessa was a Russian town to begin with.

//Elle a été fondée en 1794 ex nihilo comme ville nouvelle par l'impératrice russe Catherine II et Armand-Emmanuel du Plessis de Richelieu.//

Posted by: Poison Frogs | Oct 6 2022 17:26 utc | 60

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 6 2022 17:02 utc | 51

The job won't be done until Odessa and all of the Black Sea coast is taken. Odessa is a Russian city and the people burnt alive in the Trade Union House is the crime that forfeited any right Ukraine might have had on a multicultural but mainly Russian city. Besides, the whole project is the old Polish dream of "from sea to sea" now renamed as the Three Seas Initiative, a cunning new name to separate forever Germany and Russia. Poland was named the hyena of Europe by someone that new about hyenas being a big one himself, it has been and still is the anglo saxon's Trojan horse whose main purpose is to destroy the EU from within.

Posted by: Paco | Oct 6 2022 17:27 utc | 61

Polish President announced that Poland wants to take part in the US nuclear sharing program.
Let's see how dumbo Shoigu likes that move while he fakes some more "operation" in Ukr.
It's not the first time Pooland asked for US nukes but this time is perfect time.
Same day with Zely's demand that nato nukes Russia in a pre-emptive strike. A coincidence?

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 17:29 utc | 62

I've found MoA to be a very valuable resource on the conflict in Ukraine. There is wheat and chaff, but it's not difficult to do the winnowing. Particularly helpful to me are posts with reliable information (not just opinion or speculation) and links to informed commentary.

I've stayed (lurked?) in the background as a passive beneficiary because I don't have the competence to add anything personally. However, I hope to jump into the fray (or fog) from time to time when I come across an article or interview I think fellow barflies (of the non-chaff variety) might find of interest.

Here are two such links:

1. Col. Douglas Macgregor is in the line of George Kennan and John Mearsheimer and provides very incisive commentary on the latest events in Ukraine. He is interviewed by Dimitri Simes, who is Russian-born and has been involved in US foreign policy for decades. His questions are as interesting as Macgregor's answers. Of particular interest (at least to me): Macgregor's reasoning as to why he strongly believes there will be no use of nuclear weapons, even tactical.


2. George Friedman is someone I've found to have very insightful analysis of geo-politics and I've followed him for a couple of years. I disagree with him here, as, sometimes, elsewhere, but I think he is worth reading. I don't like trolls, but I think it's a virtue to be open-minded to opposing views when they are intelligent and civil.

Posted by: SFBlackrobe | Oct 6 2022 17:30 utc | 63

Zakharova gave her weekly briefing today and said the following about Ukraine. All emphasis mine:

Yesterday, on October 5 of this year, the President of Russia signed the laws approved by the Federal Assembly on the ratification of treaties on the admission to the Russian Federation of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and on the formation of four new subjects within the Russian Federation. The relevant federal constitutional laws were also signed and entered into force.

Despite all the attempts of Kiev and Western countries, most of the world's population understands the validity of our actions and the etymology of the crisis.

Unfortunately, part of the territories reunited with Russia remain under the control of the Kiev regime, which continues to persecute the local population on the grounds of language, political beliefs and nationality. Ukrainian militants do not stop barbaric shelling of peaceful cities and villages of the liberated regions. Just look at the constant remote mining of the center of Donetsk and its suburbs with banned anti-personnel mines "Petal", which we talked about a lot. Neo-Nazis openly take revenge on civilians for making a conscious choice in favor of who they want to be with.

However, any attempts to break the will of these people are doomed to failure. The liberation of these territories will continue. They restore the destroyed infrastructure, establish a peaceful life.

Against this background, Western countries do not stop pumping Ukraine with strike weapons and equipment, and are training its militants at NATO bases in Europe. The United States and great Britain are especially zealous in this.

The British have recently trained several thousand Ukrainian militants. Military instructors from Canada, Poland, New Zealand and other Western countries were involved in their training. They also trained militants who carried out an anti-constitutional coup on the Maidan by force, which began to mature in 2013 and was implemented in 2014, then they handed over trained extremists (i.e., people who change power by force, threatening civilians) as "civil society", "peaceful protesters", "wanting to reunite themselves" (as they said) with a certain Western civilization, and at the same time trained to conduct hostilities in the city. At the same bases, militants and extremists are now preparing, who for many years have been killing their fellow citizens, whom they consider to be residents of their country, however, "second-class".

From the United States almost every week there are reports of new tranches of military assistance to Kiev. We remember the statement of the American political establishment that the main goal of Ukraine is to kill as many Russians as possible. We remember and know how this ideology of murder is broadcast by Ukrainian ambassadors around the world. We will never forget that.

Recently, it was announced that a batch of MLRS "Highmars" is being prepared in the United States. To the existing 16 installations, the Americans are ready to add another 4, as well as ammunition for them for a total of $ 625 million. What is the strength of hatred for us on the part of this "wing" in the political leadership of the United States, that despite the colossal internal problems, recession, inflation, unemployment, it is impossible even by mobilizing its media to create a feeling not only of success, but of the imaginary well-being of its own population. Despite this, every week more and more money is poured to the Kiev regime, so that only the fighting does not stop, so that even more people die. They want to "flood" the region with blood with this very American money, printed and unsecured. Let me remind you that in the United States, the national debt recently exceeded $ 31 trillion. Can you imagine what's going on?

Over the next year, Kiev is expected to receive another 18 multiple launch rocket systems. It is with the consent of the Pentagon that Bandera's men conduct targeted fire on the civilian population and infrastructure. The Americans openly admit that in almost real time they transmit satellite and other intelligence data to the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, participate in the planning of combat operations. Isn't that complicity? This is a real hybrid war. Even private American and European companies are involved in the processing of satellite information in the interests of Kiev. On the conscience of the West (if they have one at all) are hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded civilians.

The European Union is also trying to keep up with the United States and Great Britain, which is now discussing the creation of a mission to provide military assistance to Ukraine. If such a mission is formed, it will lead to an increase in the qualitative involvement of the EU and consolidate it in the status of a party to the conflict.

Such open and large-scale support of the West, provided to the Kiev regime, prolongs the hostilities and pushes Kiev to new crimes. In the Ukrainian segment of the Internet, there have already been calls to detonate a "dirty" bomb in Moscow. This is not news. We have heard it from Ukrainian politicians that we need to drop a nuclear bomb, and to deal with Russia, Ukraine needs to become a nuclear power. That just we weren't told. True, this is not heard in civil society and the media of Western countries. They're focused on something else. In Ukrainian-language resources, instructions for collecting such a bomb are even demonstrated.

They may not try. Everyone has long understood what methods are used by the Kiev regime. They are equated with extremist, terrorist. These are murders and acts of terror carried out against people whom they have recently called their own citizens, while calling them "individuals", "second-class citizens", and against citizens of other countries, not only our country. Over the years, many people from other countries have died in Donbass.

We have taken note of President Zelenskyy's recent executive order approving the decision of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine on the impossibility of negotiating with the President of Russia. We have heard many statements by the Ukrainian leadership on this matter. Now it was decided to fix it at the legislative level.

Let me remind you that Kiev first asked us for peace talks at the end of February this year, then interrupted them, leaving our proposals of April 15 this year unanswered. It's a classic. It was the same with the Minsk agreements. At first, they pretended that they wanted to conclude them. Then they pretended to conclude, then they pretended to execute. Then they said outright that they didn't intend to do it. For eight years, the international community has been misled, pumping its own country with weapons in order to carry out a "breakthrough" of force at some point.

Even then it was obvious that this was done at the behest of the West, which does not want a cessation of hostilities and intends to continue them (as they say among themselves – "to the last Ukrainian"). Experts call it a "proxy war" between Washington, London and Brussels and Russia, which is being waged by Ukrainians. It's actually a hybrid war. The goal of the West is to strike at our country from all sides. For a long time they tried to do this in economic, humanitarian and political terms. Now they have gotten to the point of using weapons invested in the hands of Ukrainian citizens and mercenaries from all over the world. This is stated publicly.

These plans are not destined to come true. We will continue to defend the Motherland and its citizens and eliminate emerging threats to our security. Let's not back down from that goal.

The bolded text reflects Russian POV, which is likely held by the vast majority of Russians, the next to last paragraph especially. The reminder midway about the public statements by the Outlaw US Empire of its goal to kill as many Russians as possible followed by the aim to "flood the region with blood" using worthless dollars as its tool is a hybrid truth-propaganda point aimed at the domestic audience.

Is rhetoric being used to prep Russians for direct war with the Anglos? Looks like it to me, although it's been ongoing for months. IMO, it's clear Zelensky's been given his orders to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian as his diktat is essentially for no quarter.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 6 2022 17:39 utc | 64

So I’m reading the article that b posted @ 16. I started today hot tempered and so my view on what I read is likely skewed - but.

This statement is really shocking: “A CIA spokesperson declined to comment about whether there is a presidential covert action finding for operations in Ukraine” - a Biden family war that creates a Cuban missile crisis level of danger? Is that nonsense or an interesting detail?

Second, when reading about the missed calls by the US intelligence, “U.S. intelligence missed the impact of corrupt insider dealing and deceit among Putin loyalists in Moscow’s defense establishment, which has left the Russian army a brittle and hollow shell,” and the repeated mention of dysfunction and lies in the Russian military, I am left with the (perhaps false) impression that US intelligence expected some US-aligned part of the Russian military to sweep to victory over Ukraine. Except the corruption from Putin loyalists prevented that. Thus all the moaning and groaning. I’d be interested to hear if anyone else reads that the same way? Maybe I’m wildly misinterpreting what it’s saying.

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 6 2022 17:39 utc | 65

karlofi @63
You might be interested in the link I posted at the non Ukraine thread @16 (or close).
Thanks for your stream of info. skol

Posted by: bevin | Oct 6 2022 17:45 utc | 66

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Oct 6 2022 20:34 utc | 63

How did this posted manage to alter the Date/Time stamp so it is always at the bottom?
Or is it another TypePad software bug?

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 6 2022 17:46 utc | 67

Reuters is continuing its reporting on Russia bombing an entire apartment block. Its initial reporting said one person was killed and now they are reporting that 3 are the whole apartment block.

Wonder who was living in the rest of the apartment block?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 6 2022 17:48 utc | 68


Along comes SF BlackRobe and dumps a load of garbage at the bar. "Wheat and chaffe," indeed. Fail

Posted by: LastLaugh | Oct 6 2022 17:53 utc | 69

Posted by: young | Oct 6 2022 14:51 utc | 8

The problem with this passage of Daniel is trying to work out which species of bear is being referred to: brown, grizzly, panda or koala? And didn't Nostradamus say something like:
There once was a prophet named Daniel
Who wrote the prophecy manual
Though he observed very well
He was unable to fortell
Being bit on the ass by his mate's cocker spaniel

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 6 2022 18:05 utc | 70

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 6 2022 15:11 utc

If we still have to wait till the main body of fighters can see a Z or V ,then the Russians are in trouble. That is why we have scouts way ahead of the main fighters…

One million Russian uniforms stolen? Maybe corruption and the money to buy those uniforms in the first place was pocketed by some connected oligarch with military pals in High Places. The US recently caught a Malaysian kingpin who had quite a bevy of well -plumed Admirals in his pay.

Posted by: Brother Ma | Oct 6 2022 18:06 utc | 71

Is rhetoric being used to prep Russians for direct war with the Anglos? Looks like it to me,
@karlof1 | Oct 6 2022 17:39 utc | 63

Absolutely nothing prevents them from finishing the war in a week. Simply hit the power grid, transport systems, all fuel storage areas and the leadership, the nato proxies and as many barracks as possible. Instead, they've been protecting the nazis, never targeting important things or only a few, rarely. I hope it's by design but I can't see how it'll work for them if the result is that US puts nukes in Pooland and nazis continue to shell ZNPP and all regions more than before.

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 18:08 utc | 72

I must say the mood seems very confident this afternoon, where are all the trolls?

Wish I was so cheerful, ukes still seem to be attacking and the Guardian is upbeat, always a bad sign. It would be nice to see this tide turning.

I still can't but agree with people like Strelkov that in practice, Russia's patience, the wait in vain for Minsk2 to be implemented (while NATO armed and trained Ukr), has ended with more Russian and Ukrainian deaths than would have occurred had Russia gone over the borders in 2014. Nothing like hindsight I guess.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Oct 6 2022 18:12 utc | 73

The Constitution with the liberated territories within the Russian Federation has been published today. You can see the new four territories in pages 22 and 23 of the Constitution.

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 6 2022 18:13 utc | 74

Posted by: SFBlackrobe | Oct 6 2022 17:30 utc | 62

Great interview with MacGregor. Dimitri is refreshingly old school insightful with clear geopolitical chops.

Posted by: Scorpion | Oct 6 2022 18:14 utc | 75

Looks like Luka has more brains than dumbos from General Staff.

Poland has long agreed with United States on deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland, we potentially face an attack with tactical nuclear weapons and measures must be taken - Lukashenko.

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 18:16 utc | 76

But seriously...

Some here have pointed out the fallacy of AI, and that is at some point a military or political decision has to be made and authorised. The idea that technology can somehow make the decision for us is a Faustian delusion but one that fascinates the luminaries at DARPA and elsewhere. All AI can do, and will ever do, is offer a latter-day oracular service in the assistance of decision-making. Like data crunching of any kind one must eventually interpret the results, and this cannot be substituted by software because interpretation is the addition of value and meaning for the purposes of meaningful action. My data cruncher can tell me that 56% of people prefer peanut butter to strawberry jam but it cannot tell me either what that means or what I ought to do with that information. At some point, rightly or wrongly, it is I who must act—and this is both a symbolic and political move which computers cannot make since they are not intentional 'others' but simply celibate machines.

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 6 2022 18:20 utc | 77

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 6 2022 15:17 utc | 20

I said this would happen. Gloves are off my ass! It was all about giving Russia a face-saving climb-down. Except that the Ukranian state will remain as a mortal threat.

56D chess at its best. That's what happens when you trust the plan, guys!

Posted by: Herr Ringbone | Oct 6 2022 18:24 utc | 78

Posted by: Tbx | Oct 6 2022 15:03 utc | 14

Your point about the grids is well made. It is death by 1000 cuts for the Ukies. Putin has calculated that the UA can march all the way to Moscow if it wants, but the logistical situation is catastrophic and will roll up the UA with minimal casualties for the RF. Knock out a few more power stations, exhaust their men and materiel, let the EU's appetite for assistance vanish in local political crisis and finally wait for the winter to finish them off. Then push over the creaking edifice and walk in, save the day with magnanimous gestures of aid and support.

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 6 2022 18:28 utc | 79

Zelensky has asked Nato to carry out preemptive nuclear strikes on Russia, he is losing it...

There is a post on Telegram, according to which Nato and Ukraine are preparing are preparing a nuclear false-flag operation in southern Ukraine:

Let Google do the translating.

The source of the information says that Ukraine wanted tactical nukes for that purpose, but Nato prefers dirty bombs using radioactive stuff, probably from Chernobyl.
They will use Malka or Pion launchers because Russia has those as well, so they can more easily blame it on Russia.

There are other interesting posts on that Telegram channel, like this one speaking about Russian pranksters having interviewed the former Ukrainian ombudswoman, who was fired because of the backlash of her fabricated accusations against Russians. The pranksters pretended to be American diplomats and got her to admit stuff...

Or this one showing Ukrainians admitting to killing innocent civilians including women and children:

Posted by: Nico | Oct 6 2022 18:29 utc | 80

@ SFBlackrobe | Oct 6 2022 17:30 utc | 62

Great interview with MacGregor. Dimitri is refreshingly old school insightful with clear geopolitical chops.

@ Scorpion | Oct 6 2022 18:14 utc | 74

Yes, a very many interesting points made there.
Exactly this – two old schools and a Cold War souls.

Also I liked the col. MacGregor's negation on nuclear confrontation between Ukr and RF.
Too close to Russia and some 'Slavic brothers' arguments were thrown around, but I missed the good arguments and overall picture on how this War is going to end.

I am positive that at some point Ukr will surrender at least to all of Russian demands, if not in Kiev's main square. That all only on a local level. But ona global level - nobody knows.

What I would love to hear from someone here at the bar is why Chinese troops (officers) do not use this Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to gain combat experience?
Would that make NATO a bit more angry?

Posted by: whirlX | Oct 6 2022 18:39 utc | 81

Based on all the activity on Telegram, I am pretty sure that something really big will happen within a week.

Washington is in trouble because of OPEC's aggressive output reduction of 2m barrels per day, twice as much as the Americans feared.

I think OPEC has understood that if they allowed the price cap once, OPEC would be next after Russia.

Posted by: Nico | Oct 6 2022 18:39 utc | 82

@ SFBlackrobe | Oct 6 2022 17:30 utc | 62

Might not watch because I've drank too much "Ukraine" as it is. But, IMO, that's quality content. Appreciate you posting it here.

Posted by: dfg | Oct 6 2022 18:41 utc | 83

>> according to which Nato and Ukraine are
>> preparing are preparing a nuclear false-flag
>> operation in southern Ukraine:

Was it buried somewhere? If it was buried and Russia knows or suspects where it is, it would make sense for them to withdraw troops to safer areas.

Any chance that might explain giving up territory?

Posted by: dfg | Oct 6 2022 18:44 utc | 84

Posted by: wagelaborer | Oct 6 2022 15:11 utc | 17

The US sucks at war games. That's why "we" have to cheat to win.

Funny thing is that they justify it by saying that the object of war gaming is to lose, i.e., initially presuming your opponent does not make any mistakes or lose any significant forces and learning from your mistakes. In reality it's just another way that the MIC "justifies" its ever growing budget. Wait, we lost 18 of 21 scenarios? NEED MOAR SHIPSPLANESTANKSSPYSATELLITES!!!

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 6 2022 18:47 utc | 85

From the guy who will probably get the next Nobel Peace Prize, Zelensky, is asking for a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" to tell "the Russians so they know what it would be like if they use nuclear weapons".

From the Russian side ;
"All countries of the world should pay attention to Zelensky's statement about a preventive strike against Russia,the United States, Great Britain and EU countries should pay special attention to Zelensky's statement on preventive strikes against Russia"-Dmitry Peskov

Zelensky has flipped his lid, or he is shit scared. The one thing to watch out for is if there are ALREADY US nukes in Ukraine (Tactical ones).

However, the build-up by Russia is continuing, and apparently there are even newly constucted items among the vehicles that have been seen moving towards the front.

The situation in Ukraine is bad but will become disastrous. No heating, electricity, gas. (Those places that have been hit have not necessarily been repaired.)

As usual the Ukie side has "12'000 men and tanks" going to make an attack". (Kherson area). Should they send in the AI robots that are giving them orders first?

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 6 2022 18:47 utc | 86

why Chinese troops (officers) do not use this Ukrainian conflict as an opportunity to gain combat experience?
whirlX | Oct 6 2022 18:39 utc | 80

Today commander of US Pacific Fleet said they'll break any blockade set by China for Taiwan. They'll get action at home soon

Posted by: rk | Oct 6 2022 18:53 utc | 87

«"An example - the Ukrainian generals did not accept the plan for a counter-offensive at Kharkov, they were against it. The handlers insisted on the plan"
If true, UA generals were probably against it because they expected a counter attack.»

From my armchair this looks inaccurate: the attack was designed to be against an essentially undefended area.

If the story is true the most likely reason is that the attack was militarily pointless, just a vulnerable and costly lunge forward with no contact with the enemy.

In open plains warfare (where there are few critical terrain features that are worth fighting over) sometimes in the past many centuries opposing armies spent weeks or months trying to find each other while going around the place.

I think that *both* sides are overextended over a giant frontline, and what matters in the end is their logistics, and General Winter has always help the russian armies.

Posted by: Blissex | Oct 6 2022 18:54 utc | 88

This is Game Over for Zelensky.

Posted by: mk | Oct 6 2022 18:55 utc | 89

With Putin having announced that all the Russian soldiers whose contracts expired would be taken off the battle field and returned back to the homeland, the question arises about proportion of the experienced fighters that are left to conduct military operations.

If this reduction resulted in the impossibility of defending captured territory without suffering massive losses, the happenings in the Kharkiv region and the losses eastward become understandable. As well, with the Ukrainians' primary goal of regaining Kherson and pushing the Russian army off the west bank of the Dnieper, the abandonment of seemingly-important cities and regions in order to move troops to the defence of Kherson again is understandable.

With the time that has been available to the Russian forces, one can assume that their amplfied fortifications of the Kherson region, as well as well as the augmented number of troops that have become available, are such that the Ukrainians will be facing a formidable foe in trying to achieve its aims.

So, one must bide one's time until the training of the new troops is complete to witness the next phase.

Posted by: chet380 | Oct 6 2022 18:56 utc | 90

I make no pretence to any sort of expertise but I can't help think of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a sort of Samsonian jujitsu move against Germany and the wider EU. To wit, a potential Kamikaze move to get back at Germany for its perfidy and hypocrisy in light of the fact that Russia (under Gorbachev) played a fundamental role in the reunification of Germany, i.e. in its literal integrity, from which stems the combined politico-economic might of the whole, and which in turn accounts for whatever exponential instrumentalization the EU itself might serve on the wider global stage.

But not only did Gorbachev's magnanimous condescension make this possible, the heretofore equanimity, amity, and complacency of Russia has sustained it through its generous administration of relatively cheap energy. Yet how does Germany repay this debt to Russia? By at best passively conniving with the US and NATO against the politico-economic integrity of the Russian Federation in turn, an event that eventually led to the 2014 Maiden coup by the US.

The latter, btw, *the* hegemon par excellence, would have preferred that Germany never reintegrated and that the EU never formed, and that having formed, it had never achieved a competitive status against its own definitionally unipolar American interests. Such competitiveness being at least coequally produced of Pax Americana and USSR's/Russian facile acquiescence to German reunification and following that Russia's role as the essential (energetic) motor behind the miraculous motor of Europe: the competitiveness of German industrial might as such.

Russia recoiled at Germany's perfidy and connivance against its own geopolitical integrity and status, a matter that could no longer be tolerated, and one that became insupportable when Germany appeared to side with the US in prioritizing Ukraine over its objective vitally important relationship with Russia. Russia was able to retain Crimea, but Germany was complicit in the piling of sanctions atop of sanctions against Russia, of the piling of lies and conspiracies atop of lies and conspiracies against Russia. The use of Nordstream 2, a double lock and guard in the securitization and protection of Germany's crown jewels (the continuing viability of its industrial potential and might) as an obscene and grossly hypocritical cudgel against Russia was the last straw!

Germany would even pretend to reduce Russia to beggary. So under the feint and pretext of imperial revanchism Russia has invaded Ukraine, and in lukewarm fashion operated to achieve certain superficial gains with an unusually circumscribed force (some indeed call the operation a failure). Yet as an attack against Germany, and thereby against the "pacifically" imperial might of the EU, whose heart and brain Germany is, it has been brutal indeed, promises to exponentially be even crueler with each passing day of Russian delay and dalliance in Ukraine.

Surely the EU will never recover from this self-immolation to its own reputation and prestige as an autonomous third imperial power or pole on the world stage. Russia neither could nor wished to harm the US, nor was it in any form literally complicit with the former in the sundering of the source of German might: the east, not the West. But the effect could hardly have been any worse for Germany and the EU if it had (or if it had used an atomic weapon against the latter). The US will come out on top, Russian standing on the world stage and internally is sacrificed and harmed, but Germany, and by extension the EU (and especially the prestige of the Westernmost traditional powers within in it) has literally run out of steam and stands as if millimeters before a cliff, if indeed it has not already fallen into the abyss.

Posted by: Menelaus | Oct 6 2022 18:56 utc | 91

People's Artist of Russia and leader of the Lyube group Nikolai Rastorguev commented on the EU sanctions imposed against him.

“It is a great honor that my services to the Motherland were recognized at such a high level. The mood did not change, on the contrary, everyone began to congratulate me,” he said.

EU doesn't appear like singers

Posted by: Paulg | Oct 6 2022 18:59 utc | 92

Posted by: veto | Oct 6 2022 14:34 utc | 4

Yeah, most of the pro-Ukraine propaganda is just miltech nerds jerking off about hardware. St.Javelin, HIMARS, starlink, google AI, it never ends with these empty headed dopes.

Posted by: Molok | Oct 6 2022 19:00 utc | 93

now since I said it like heidegger last time now like scarlet


those guys gave us everything we needed!

Posted by: Macpott | Oct 6 2022 19:01 utc | 94

*IF* -- odds unknown -- the klepto west blames Russia for a nuke (especially if it's used to nuke Russian forces), what are the odds then that:

- Russia nukes the decision centers: Brussels, London, and DC?

- The military men in the klepto west MIC refuse world-ending retaliatory orders and implement a coup to save their people from the psychos running the show?

Is that too much to pray for?

Posted by: dfg | Oct 6 2022 19:01 utc | 95

Is there any convincing way to debunk a claim that the nord stream bombing is Putin's false flag intended to turn Europe against USA?

Posted by: FieryButMostPeaceful | Oct 6 2022 16:09 utc | 7

You can deduce NATO culpability from either of the following:

1. The area of attack has been absolutely under NATO control all along,. There is almost no Russian attack opportunity at those locations and almost 100% chance of getting caught!

2. (My favourite) The area is under 100% NATO control yet no underwater photographic or video evidence has been published that shows the damage to the pipes .... think about that for a second.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 6 2022 19:02 utc | 96


Me, I automatically derate all news issued by country 404 as 98% fictional propaganda! The remaining 2% is sewer food.

USSAs AI "Skynet/WOPR" is not omnipotent.

The cloudy autumn days have returned to country 404. with the rains. Another season of deep boggy mud has returned. One cannot ignore the basic laws of physics either!

Lack of winter/rain gear will be the complete death of any army in the open field. One where all transport is merely mobile target practice. When the day temperatures drop well below zero. The end result is predictable.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 6 2022 19:03 utc | 97

Stonebird | Oct 6 2022 18:47 utc | 85 "Zelensky has flipped his lid, or he is shit scared. The one thing to watch out for is if there are ALREADY US nukes in Ukraine (Tactical ones)."
Putin and Clausewitz
There is an eerie calm radiating from the Kremlin. Mobilization is underway - 200,000 men are currently undergoing refresher training at ranges around Russia. Trainloads of military equipment continue to flood across the Kerch bridge, but Ukraine’s offensive plods on with no Russian reinforcements to be seen at the front. The disconnect between the Kremlin’s stoicism and the deterioration of the front are striking. Perhaps Putin and the entire Russian general staff really are criminally incompetent - perhaps the Russian reserves really are nothing but a bunch of drunks. Perhaps there is no plan.

Or perhaps, Russia’s sons will answer the call of the motherland again, as they did in 1709, in 1812, and in 1941.

As the wolves once more prowl at the door, the old bear rises again to fight.

Green t-shirt has banked everything on pysops. Reading the Ukie channels the current win ground regardless of losses is to give substance to the massive pysops operation targeting ethnic groups in Russia. Russia is Russia and they have their issues but they will get their shit sorted as they have done throughout history. Zed knows he is toast if the psyops doesn't work.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 6 2022 19:05 utc | 98

Zelensky called for Nato first strike nuke Russia. Yeah, just confirms the thesis about Ukraine winning magnificently.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 6 2022 19:08 utc | 99

Very interesting comments and discussion about ML / AI.

Remember the 1983 movie "WarGames"? Multiply that ancient tech "game playing" scenario by about infinity to understand what might be possible today. The Internet itself started as ARPANET, a project funded by DARPA in 1969. What is DARPA? "Research and Development Agency of the Dept of Defense responsible for the development of emerging technologies for use by the military". Emerging tech. In 196-freaking-9. Now?

The US Military certainly has tech capabilities far in advance of commercial applications. Former brother-in-law worked for Lockheed in the 80s and he still can't discuss what he was working on. I had a friend many years ago whose son was a math prodigy. When he was 16, three-letter agency "Men in Black" paid him a visit and made them a "Work For Us" offer they couldn't refuse. They find and hijack the best talent.

Data Points? Trillions of them available. US Satellites and even Musk's Starlink units are blanketing the skies above Ukraine. Signals? Everywhere. Radio, cell phone, smart watch, truck and tank engine signatures, probably even heartbeat and blood pressure of EVERY individual soldier.

The battlefield in Ukraine is the US military's wildest tech dream come true...a chance to field test "emerging tech" none of us have yet heard about. If a SciFi writer can dream it, the military has probably already built it. What about "smart bullets" each with a chip, that can home in on body heat, and even self-correct its course? Just speculation...but...

I suggest NOT discounting the impact of US military's "emerging tech" in this war. Might be one reason Russia has pulled back and is preparing for a much bigger effort. Scott Ritter was mocked by some experts when he said US/NATO smart weapons were a game-changer. He was right. The game changed. Can Russia adapt and respond?

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Oct 6 2022 19:10 utc | 100

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