Ukraine Open Thread 2022-165
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Posted by b on October 3, 2022 at 12:16 UTC | Permalink
next page »I always thought the joy of fighting on the Central European Plain was extended supply lines and elasticated advances stretched until rebound retreats..........
If territory is secondary and incinerating the enemy is the main objective the more you draw out the foe from entrenched positions the better.........
Then again US satellites and SIGINT planes do focus efforts and presumably will become targets.
Telegram and YT are simply inadequate means to reveal strategy or progress - not one of them predicted the destruction of Nordstream
Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 12:22 utc | 2
How to be of Help
Like many of your class and kind, the Germans are seeking relief from the results of their sanctions by spending the winter in Turkey, whether supporters of the régime or not, friendly to RF or the others
Why should not the MoA moaning minnies here do the same – the neutral atmosphere will prove friendly for less frantic thoughts, location not far from the action will be stimulating, the many opportunities not only to learn of the reality and practice of fractal neutrality, but also to fraternise with or at least learn from the many Russians wintering in the country
Just like Casablanca ! Bring out the Ricks and Ilsas in you ! Your Country needs you!
Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 3 2022 12:30 utc | 3
Ukraine now has the initiative all along the 1,000 km front, and it chooses when and where the battles are fought.
It is not clear that Russia can hold the oblasts it has captured, and I don't think it has the entirety of any of them, outside Crimea.
Posted by: bob sykes | Oct 3 2022 12:34 utc | 4
When the traitor to humanity, Stalin, joined with the Nazis through the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, and split up Poland, commencing WW2, none would have imagined anyone thinking to rehabilitate his image. Yet Putin did. Putin labors to make Stalin less abhorrent, less a failure to Russia and the planet. Now the delusion, that Ukraine is ruled by Nazis, the "West" being Satanist Nazis, that Russian imperialism is better than Western imperialism, comes across as madness in real time. Poor funny old world. Delusion reigns supreme in each empire, while real politic proceeds apace. Such a sad waste, and so terrible that Russia and China have fallen into the maw. Poor world, ridden by stupid masters.
Posted by: ahole | Oct 3 2022 13:02 utc | 5
Despite the pro Russian pundits declaring the Kherson counteroffensive dead/halted/stopped several times, Ukraine is again on the move there taking a large amount of territory in a day. In an area that must be re-supplied by helicopter or ferry. The poor people of that area that voted to join Russia may be awaiting a horrible fate.
"Ukraine now has the initiative all along the 1,000 km front, and it chooses when and where the battles are fought."
Yes, there appears to have been a big turn in the war. Despite constant talk that "Ukraine is taking heavy losses as they advance" by the pro Russia pundits, Ukraine still moves forward. Wagner is the only group moving forward on the other side and it is very slowly in only one region.
The Russian air force seems just about as neutered as the Ukrainian.
Posted by: Simon | Oct 3 2022 13:02 utc | 6
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/10/turkish-shipyard-launches-hetman-ivan-mazepa/
Turkish Shipyard Launches Ukraine’s 1st MILGEM Corvette
The corvettes will be equipped with Harpoon anti-ship missiles as their primary strike system. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister stated that the country was considering the indigenous Neptune anti-ship missile, as well as the Harpoon, Atmaca, and Naval Strike Missile. Still, the Harpoon was an unexpected choice. It should be noted that the mockup presented by the company to the first lady is fitted with Aselsan-made Gokdeniz CIWS, while previous statements were suggesting Rheinmetall Oerlikon’s Millennium 35 mm CIWS for the corvette.
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 13:05 utc | 7
From what i understand, the UAF & Friends used a considerable amount of soldiers and equipment to attack Lyman for 2 weeks. 6000 vs 500 Cossacks and many failed assaults. In the end RF forces simply withdrew. I noticed that the LOC is much more "smooth" and likely easier to fortify. I've noticed across the net that all the US-UKraine trolls are hopping with glee and high-fiving while hurling insults at anyone that disagrees. But just how much of a victory is this? The RF is about add a considerable amount of men and materials to the war. They are already aware that they are fighting the USA and NATO so there are no surprises there. It would seem that most of the population knows this and is ready for it, despite the of fleeing "conscripts". The idea of "fast-tracking" Ukraine into NATO despite it not meeting the criteria seems crazy and dangerous, but then NATO is already embroiled so what would change? Off with the gloves and abandon the pretense that you are helping protect a nation being victimized by "unprovoked aggression" and let'er rip? Where are all these weapons coming from? Given the rapidly shrinking industrial base, the reliance on Russian and Chinese parts and materials I just don't see it. Also: if the USA and the Attack-Poodles go all in, I would expect a reaction from China as well as other allied nations. I wonder how many artillery shells China could make in a month at full production? How are the EU nations going muster the troopies when the population is taking to the streets. In a way it seems like a well engineered FusterCluck.
Posted by: Chevrus | Oct 3 2022 13:06 utc | 8
CHEERS and a STANDING OVATION at the Russian Parliament as it ratifies the agreements on Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson blabla...Intel Slava just reports.
Guys must have developed some kind of bunker reality there. Is the spirit of comrade Leonid Brezhnev with them?
Posted by: Josef Schweik | Oct 3 2022 13:07 utc | 9
How is it that as soon as I post even after some days - a whole new thread suddenly starts 😉
Ah well, I’ll just post this but the rest is in previous thread
‘It was curious that the MoA site became unavailable when it published Putins speech and the tweet was copied across various other sites.
Read or watch that speech in full if anyone hasn’t got round to it and believes it is now to far ago to be relevant.
Various other curiosities echo on MoA and other sites.
Such as when b or indeed Putin ponders why did Lenin inexplicably ‘gift’ certain regions to the Ukraine in 1922??
And why again in 1952 was The Crimea equally transitioned????
To a state that never existed ?
It smacks of some kind of ‘Contractual Obligation or Payment in Kind’ does it not? ‘
On the actual action on the ground - I am sticking to the great Rope-A-Dope tactic as Ali pummelled his hapless over powered opponent whilst deflecting his lumbering hits by FALLING BACK whilst hooking ( as in fish) the dumb kitchen ware salesman forward.
It really is a shame that many of us armchair warriors actually fail to know the real history and have ludicrous faith in our fictional entertainment media to gain our knowledge of Life about.
It is not great knowing thousands are dying or wounded daily. Even if they are on the wrong side.
It’s their Masters who need to be named and reviled.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 3 2022 13:09 utc | 10
Its crystal clear to me that if Putin had destroyed Ukraine with 500K troops in Feb as we all agree he could have, it would be forever condemned by much of the Slavic community. The meme of Slavic unity is very strong. The Ukrainian brothers would have risen if given the chance. IMO Putin had to give them that chance in order to ensure his countries support for what actually has to happen. Genius.
Posted by: Ralph Conner | Oct 3 2022 13:11 utc | 11
In case you missed it....
UPDATE 01
"The Ukrainian forces entered a fire pocket and are being actively eliminated by our troops. They managed to advance to a distance of 1.5-2 km and this was done so that [Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky could joyfully announce new successes, but he is silent about the fact that he has sent his fighters to their deaths," the LPR people’s militia officer said. "They [the Ukrainian troops] are now being pounded by the firepower of our forces and the forces of the Russian Federation from three directions, namely, from the north, the east and the south and all those who entered the [administrative] territory of the Lugansk People’s Republic are being persistently destroyed," he added.
UPDATE 02
Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov reported on October 1 that the allied forces had pulled out of Krasny Liman in the Donetsk People’s Republic. He specified that the troops had withdrawn "to more advantageous frontiers." In the direction of the settlement of Krasny Liman, the allied forces killed over 200 Ukrainian troops but the enemy brought in reserves and continued its advance, having a considerable preponderance of forces and weapons, the spokesman said.
UPDATE 03
Ukraine’s armed forces are suffering serious losses on the Kherson direction, a deputy head of the Kherson Region’s military-civilian administration said on Monday. "Frankly speaking, the losses are heavy and these are somebody’s children, somebody’s husbands and sons," Kirill Stremousov told Channel One.
UPDATE 04
Allied forces have been successful in clashes with the Ukrainian army in the vicinity of the towns of UGLEDAR, MARYINKA and ARTYOMOVSK (called Bakhmut by the Kiev regime) as well as the PESKI settlement, DPR leader Denis Pushilin said on Monday.
Posted by: Lord Ashvile | Oct 3 2022 13:16 utc | 12
Posted by: flaunting | Oct 3 2022 13:09 utc | 10
Iran is opposed to nuclear weapons on religious grounds. I do not believe they will build a nuke so long as they follow Shia authorities on the matter.
Iranian deterrence derives from its extremely capable conventional missile systems. Any attack on Iran from the US/Israel nexus would immediately result in the bombardment of US bases across the Mideast as well as Tel Aviv. The damage to US troops and machinery and Israeli government centers would be enormous.
The only way the US/Israel could attack Iran would be via the use of a nuclear first strike. I do not believe the US would approve of this action for several reasons.
Hence I envision the US/Israel strategy to be continued use of economic and proxy warfare against Iranian interests in Syria and Iraq.
I agree with your other point. I do not know why Russia has not "encouraged" certain entities to attack US bases in Syria and Iraq more regularly. The US is especially exposed in Syria. It has no legal basis for being there. It is opposed by other major parties in war, and US populace is not going to accept American casualities for the sake of controlling Syrian oil. Russia via proxies could very well force the US evacuation from Syria in just a couple months. Russia has not done so, I believe, because it does not want to escalate with the US at the current time.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 3 2022 13:17 utc | 13
@10 flaunting
Iran is currently experiencing serious unrest - I take it we fully support the right of oppressed people to protest against a repressive theocracy? In any event, Iran has its own internal issues and Russia/Ukraine are likely to be way down the list of things to deal with.
Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 3 2022 13:18 utc | 14
The fog of war in Donbass is particularly dense at present time.
Lots of reports of Ukrainian advances.
Some reports that such advances are in fact defeats.
Lots of debate on pro-Russian telegram channels about current state of Ukrainian advance in Kharkiv and Kherson.
Lots of debate on whether this is all part of some Russian strategy or is rather a function of the incompetence and backbiting of Russian command.
One thing remains true, though: the more towns and cities Ukrainian takes in Donbass, the more innocent Russian civilians are going to suffer the wrath of the ultra-nationalists.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 3 2022 13:23 utc | 15
These threads are now like walking through a swarm of ankle-biting mosquitos.
Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 3 2022 13:27 utc | 16
This is a good, well-balanced write up on developments in theater over the past few days:
Posted by: WJ | Oct 3 2022 13:35 utc | 17
Germany appears firmly in America's orbit now.
But given the strong circumstantial case for the US as the party responsible for the pipeline destruction and the strong chance that Germany's economy will collapse as a result, perhaps Germans will come to see the sabotage as a replay of the Versailles treaty, the punitive terms of which gave rise to Hitler.
Posted by: John Kirsch | Oct 3 2022 13:35 utc | 18
via UK press
Commander of the Western Military District, Alexander Zhuravlev, 56, has also been ousted in revenge for Ukraine's successful counter-offensive.
He has been replaced by hardliner Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov in Putin's latest musical chairs among his leading commanders, according to international intelligence community InformNapalm.
Going to make a difference? Sadly yet another convoy of peoples trying to leave Liman have been shelled by Ukr...c 80 dead. Not doing well for the "reputation" of the treat ordered by Russ leaders of LNR and DPR forces
Posted by: Jo | Oct 3 2022 13:38 utc | 19
Its crystal clear to me that if Putin had destroyed Ukraine with 500K troops in Feb as we all agree he could have, it would be forever condemned by much of the Slavic community. The meme of Slavic unity is very strong. The Ukrainian brothers would have risen if given the chance. IMO Putin had to give them that chance in order to ensure his countries support for what actually has to happen. Genius.
Posted by: Ralph Conner | Oct 3 2022 13:11 utc | 12
Now, that was funny.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 3 2022 13:42 utc | 20
The longer this goes on, the more parallels with the US Civil War seem to appear:
1) This is a brother v. brother, continental-sized fight that neither side can back away from
2) Ukraine (the South) feels it is superior in fighting ability and will win on the battlefield.
3) Russia (the North) is taking much longer to win than a mere economic/population comparison would seem to justify and withdraws armies seemingly on the verge of victory after taking light casualties.
4) Foreign intervention is limited to some weapons, volunteers and money
5) Ukraine is winning tactical victories while its economy continues to be slowly strangled
6) Ukraine and Russia will eventually have to reconcile and create an economic if not political union.
7) What might emerge would be a major world power.
Posted by: Tom | Oct 3 2022 13:42 utc | 21
Germany appears firmly in America's orbit now.
But given the strong circumstantial case for the US as the party responsible for the pipeline destruction and the strong chance that Germany's economy will collapse as a result, perhaps Germans will come to see the sabotage as a replay of the Versailles treaty, the punitive terms of which gave rise to Hitler.
Posted by: John Kirsch | Oct 3 2022 13:35 utc | 19
————
Interesting thought.
It could also go in the opposite direction if this time the German populace sees US policies for what they truly are and decides to take up with Russia as a better friend.
Posted by: financial matters | Oct 3 2022 13:50 utc | 22
Posted by: Tom | Oct 3 2022 13:42 utc | 22
4) Foreign intervention is limited to some weapons, volunteers and money.
This is not a realistic summary of the aid supplied by US/NATO to Ukraine.
---tens of billions of dollars in support of Ukrainian government and military
---live, real-time intelligence of all Russian troop movements
---US led command centers that "advise" on targeting and strategy
---in-theatre advising "teams" that travel with US/NATO supplied HIMARS
---NATO-trained mercenary "volunteers" serving as shock troops in all major Ukrainian offensives
Without the US/NATO involving themselves this war would be already over in March, when Russia and Ukraine had agreed upon the basic provisions of a peace agreement.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 3 2022 13:55 utc | 23
More reports on Russian telegram channels about Ukrainian advances in Kherson region. Things are looking very bad. The whole SMO approach has been self-defeating, and the mobilization looks more and more like too little too late. God help Russia!
Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 3 2022 13:59 utc | 24
If I was a thinking German, I'd blow up the pipeline from Norway to Poland. So as not to live on charity from the hyena of Europe.
Lots of oil in Romania. Just saying.
Posted by: Philip H Gattey | Oct 3 2022 14:00 utc | 25
@ WJ 16
Trying to second-guess the thoughts of the Neo-cons is Fool's gold. The purpose of Terror is not to terrorise enemies, but to terrorise civilians. Stealing is so much easier when the house is empty. I saw actors in full Daesh costume travelling by passenger flight to pose in Mosul. The tattoos are only there to scare people, Pure psyops.
Second , Israel's best friend is Iran. Who finished Kurdish independence? Iran. Who is fighting for Britain in Libya,? Iran. Who is fighting Saudi Arabia in Yemen? Iran.
Posted by: Giyane | Oct 3 2022 14:04 utc | 26
At the risk of being labeled a "concern troll", MoA’s deprecation of the moment, as a long-time Russophile and observer of Russia, it should be clear to any realistic observer that from the events of the last few days, Russia is currently loosing the war in the Ukraine. Only the imminent “rasputitsa" mud season is likely to save Russia from major setbacks on the Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk fronts. By its end in early/mid-November when the ground freezes, Russia might have enough of the newly-mobalized prior-service troops refresher-trained and integrated into existing subunits, or organized and equipped in new units, to hold back the huge numbers of NATO-equipped/organized/lead units the Ukraine is capable of throwing against it. Let’s hope it’s not too late. Otherwise, the incorporation of the Donbas and Kherson and Zaporozhia oblasts into Russia might be at most an interesting historical curiosity someday.
Posted by: Seward | Oct 3 2022 14:04 utc | 27
If Ukraine was doing so well on the battlefield it wouldn’t be necessary to flood each thread with astroturfers. If Ukraine is doing so well why has NATO washed its hands of Ukraine’s NATO application. Sure NATO will fight to the last Ukrainian but they’ll be damned if they let the suckers into the club.
The state Duma ratified the agreements on the entry of the republics into Russia and tomorrow the same vote will take place in the Federal council.
Once that takes place it a whole new ball game. Given the mass of armour and combat ready troops that have been called up the SMO is being upgraded to a full scale assault.
As Martyanov says don’t be lost in the minutiae.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 3 2022 14:13 utc | 28
Only fools will attack headlong, while the opponent retreats. Usually, the retreating opponent would entice the enemy into a trap. The Americans and their vassals (Ukraine here) are known to be utter fools.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 3 2022 14:14 utc | 29
When the traitor to humanity, Stalin, joined with the Nazis through the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact, and split up Poland, commencing WW2, ....
Posted by: ahole | Oct 3 2022 13:02 utc | 5
Poor world, ridden by stupid ASSHOLE.
Posted by: (4*3)Monkeys | Oct 3 2022 14:18 utc | 30
In local MSM I read that Kadyrov says nuclear stuff should be deployed. (Probably because
of the perceived huge loss of Liman I guess).
Is there a reference or source that that is really the case?
(I also read on johnhelmer.org that a false-flag of such a kind might be staged,
what makes more sense to me if Kadyrov never said so)
Posted by: Dirk | Oct 3 2022 14:19 utc | 31
I note that in my 75 years the Mighty US Military has won two engagements, a glorious victory over the Dope dealers of Panama and
mopping the floor with 34 student radicals and a Cuban construction crew in Grenada.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Oct 3 2022 14:19 utc | 32
I wonder how those American weapons will work in the cold. I do know that they do exercises in Norway and the like but their focus for many years now has been on hot, sandy places and tropical jungle. I’d expect the weapons to be designed for that. And it’s pretty chilly here today.
Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Oct 3 2022 14:22 utc | 33
@Dirk #32, Kadyrov wrote it on his telegram:
more drastic measures should be taken, up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons
Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 14:35 utc | 34
Russia will always have an adversary to deal with in Ukraine or elsewhere as long as the USA is funneling support against the Russian Bear. The USA will never back down because its money is at stake. Russia is seriously challenging the world reserve currency status of the United States Dollar (USD). If the USA does not take down Russia, then the value of the USD will quickly erode.
The head of the NATO snake will have to be cut off for Russia to find a solution.
Russia has the means of doing just that with its advanced nuclear arsenal.
The question is when? That is a spiritual question unless one is part of the actual decision making. Very few are in that category. And those few would not dare to violate their silence to the world.
From a spiritual perspective, the only insight outside of a direct answer from God, there is Daniel 7:5.
This verse indicates that the bear will have 3 ribs in its mouth between its teeth before it arises and devours much flesh. I think the 3 ribs could be Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk.
If correct about who the 3 ribs are, then watch for a soon destruction of the USA soon after Donetsk is taken.
Posted by: young | Oct 3 2022 14:35 utc | 35
There could be method to what the Russians are doing by retreating.
1. They seem to be inflicting heavier casualties on the Ukrainians than they are suffering themselves reducing the size of the Ukrainian forces although it should be remembered that UK is delivering 10,000 well trained Ukrainian troops each month.
2. The Russians are concentrating their forces. Ukraine is doing well because it's attacking weekly defended portions of the Russian line. Once Russian troops are concentrated enough, Ukrainians will lose that advantage, and meanwhile Ukrainian forces are becoming more spread out themselves and more susceptible to a Russian Counteroffensive.
I hope Moscow has thrown all the SMO rules of engagement in the bin and is giving its generals the freedom to do what is necessary within the rules of war to achieve victory.
Posted by: Ghost Ship | Oct 3 2022 14:36 utc | 36
Now Russia "loses" at least that's what the reports say???
Thesis : Putin is doing this on purpose, decrees losing ?
Thesis: The purpose is fulfilled, the West (Europe) Germany is destroying itself or is there!
Thesis : That was the reason in agreement with Putin .... give them a reason to destroy themselves !! ( ? )
Possibly the plan?
Europe DE-Industrializing ?? But so that you do NOT notice it yourself !!!
Governments CANNOT be blamed!
Is Putin possibly involved in the plan of the powerful?
As I said thesis! But one thing is certain, no general can be so UN-capable!
Posted by: Mo3 | Oct 3 2022 14:40 utc | 37
An example of the fathead thicko stupidity of some. A whole lot of Amerikans are buying up weeks on hundreds of airbnb sites across the Ukraine, and leaving 5-star "reviews" saying things like "I have no intention of visiting your beautiful country but just wanted to help you during this brutal Russian invasion..." [rtc rtc]
It is even more fatwit stupid than that: I happen to know a few airbnb operators (several in Odessa, one in Rovno, a couple in Kiev, one in Kharkov) and all of the ones I know, who are recipients of this Amerikan solidaritaire largesse, are (or have been) Russia-leaning and anti-regime. (I have accrued these contacts through years of teaching.)
Airbnb is probably turning a blind eye to what must be some sort of breach of their terms, and perhaps even encouraging this. Btw, abnb have disappeared all of their hundreds of sites across the RF and Belarus.
Posted by: petra | Oct 3 2022 14:41 utc | 38
I confess to being a little rattled by the lack of apparent reaction by Russia to the latest battlefield circumstances, from here in TN, so I have to believe there is a psychological component to this. Tomorrow I believe all formalities will be complete so this has to be on the minds of Ukrainians.
If I were them I'd be nervous about what may happen next.
Posted by: chunga | Oct 3 2022 14:42 utc | 39
petra | Oct 3 2022 14:41 utc | 39
Brilliant report- beats wintering in Turkey
Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 3 2022 14:44 utc | 40
In case you missed it.... (bis)
"The front was under "pressure" since the collapse of the VSU "offensive" on Kherson and all that was in a view of ongoing preparation and then commencement of referenda--this is so obvious that only Ukie IPSO trolls deny it. Same as the case with Liman which was under the orders to be captured BEFORE referenda--these are all well-known, confirmed facts.
But for people who move "arrows" on the maps (not operational ones--most of them never saw what real operational map is) continue to ignore the fact that the VSU throws everything it got precisely because the country just lost a huge chunk of its territory and [b]85-90% of its GDP [/b]. Well, that's strategy--meaning achieving political aims of war--but operationally, Russian forces are on the defensive precisely because of a desperate attempts of Kiev regime to gain any kind of "success", even tactical one, to extend the credit line with NATO.
Period, nothing more, nothing else. They continue to throw personnel into the grinder. This WILL continue for a while, because the only thing VSU can do is to throw wave after wave, because they do have numerical superiority."
Andreï Martyanov on his site.
Wishful thinking or cold cerebral analysis of the situation? Time will tell.
Posted by: Nanker | Oct 3 2022 14:47 utc | 41
Ghost Ship | Oct 3 2022 14:36 utc | 37
There has been very big build up of Russian forces in three areas. Tomorrow the final documents are signed to make the territories officially part of Russia. As one analyst I read said - the movements this time will be army groups not BTG's.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 14:48 utc | 42
Looks like the gas equation has changed yet again as the B-String of NS2 remains serviceable. Yes, it will be emptied of gas then examined; yet, because it's possible to perform that, it's likely able to resume operations, which will again put pressure on EU politicos to bow to their constituents demands it be opened. The flipside is citizens will again be able to mount pressure since gas can again be delivered.
However, "Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Saturday that the gas routes can be repaired, but the process will be costly and time-consuming. According to him, Moscow’s first step will be to find the culprit behind the attack."
It should also be noted the constitutional procedures for the addition of the new territories are almost complete, and beginning Tuesday an attack on them will be an attack on Russia. Plus, only nine NATOstans want to add Ukraine, a defeat for the Empire.
In response to
"
These threads are now like walking through a swarm of ankle-biting mosquitos.
Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 3 2022 13:27 utc | 17
"
LOL!!! I agree. Some of these folks are getting paid for the textual white noise biting you on the ankles. Given the fog of war it is very hard to distinguish between the good and bad mosquitos so I just look for familiar monikers...Have one on me!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 3 2022 14:52 utc | 44
US general Petraeus is turning hyper berserk with these threats about nuclear weapons. Russia should tell him that in case of any Nato backed nuclear attack in Ukraine it would be regarded as nuclear attack against Russia. Since that's what it effectively is. Or an eye-for-an-eye, you pollute our land, we pollute yours somewhere.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 14:56 utc | 45
If they can get to that reservoir, they will flood a large area and cut off most of Kherson region. Russian troops and civilians will get massacred. The Ukrainian government has said that everyone that has voted will go 10 years in prison. They will of course later offer amnesty for future obedience.
It is clear to me that Russia will lose Kherson, Zaporizhia and western Luhansk shortly.
It seems to me that the situation has diametrically changed from early summer. The influx of ukrainian NATO trained fighters with modern gear made a tremendous difference. From ukrainian soldiers fleeing Lyshiansks to people fleeing Ukrainian hordes blood thirsty for revenge in 2 months!
The people of those regions are looking at a century of enslavement and degradation.
Russia is re-training and equipping in turn. Will it be enough to retake what they will lose in the coming week or two? Will it matter after Nato & ukraine establishes draconian social control and the pogroms have already been made?
There is no game changer, no new reinforcements, no deux-ex-machina, no wunderwaffe. Why did Russia show such disregard for human life, such a travesty… Goading those people to vote themselves into oblivion and serfdom. Giving celebrations while the revanchist hordes bomb fleeing civilians.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 3 2022 14:57 utc | 46
As Martyanov says don’t be lost in the minutiae.
Posted by: Down South | Oct 3 2022 14:13 utc | 29
Anybody still listening that drunk western agent, deserves what they get.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 3 2022 15:02 utc | 47
Karl L a few days ago in Germany:
"We are at war with Putin"
----
Kaaaaaaaaaarl words can kill people >.<
Posted by: Macpott | Oct 3 2022 15:05 utc | 48
LOL!!! I agree. Some of these folks are getting paid for the textual white noise biting you on the ankles. Given the fog of war it is very hard to distinguish between the good and bad mosquitos so I just look for familiar monikers...Have one on me!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 3 2022 14:52 utc | 45
If your website is indicative of your grasp on reality, well, let's just say, enjoy your echo chamber.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 3 2022 15:05 utc | 49
You doomers would make good ww1 generals. You think holding onto territory no matter the cost is a good idea.
Posted by: Anon8888 | Oct 3 2022 15:09 utc | 50
"...It should also be noted the constitutional procedures for the addition of the new territories are almost complete, and beginning Tuesday an attack on them will be an attack on Russia..."
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 3 2022 14:51 utc | 44
Thank you, karlof1. I am happy to report that scrolling to regulars works! Also, it is not hard to make references as I've done above. I'm not answering any who don't do this - if I can do it, anyone can.
Posted by: juliania | Oct 3 2022 15:11 utc | 51
Anybody still listening that drunk western agent, deserves what they get.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 3 2022 15:02 utc | 48
He might not be an agent (why would they pay him), I think he is a genuine article. The problem is, there are many like him in the Russian armed forces. Full with soviet grandeur and butthurt, waiting for revanche. It is them that created this mess, goading hundreds of thousands of people to devastation and serfdom with their hubris.
Unimaginable failure. This will stifle anti imperialist movements for half a century.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 3 2022 15:12 utc | 52
Anybody still listening that drunk western agent, deserves what they get.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 3 2022 15:02 utc | 48
Until very recently he was ridiculing the idea that mobilisation by the Russians was needed.
Posted by: evilsooty999 | Oct 3 2022 15:15 utc | 53
Can anyone please answer?
Two things I do not understand.
(1) Why were there no man-portable anti-tank systems (MANPADs/ MPADs) on the weak Kharkhiv front lines? The rumors of up to 400 main battle tanks amassed in Kharkhiv were very widespread. I would think that, given the known weakness of the front, the least commanding officers could have done was to fortify the positions with just 200 MPAD operators. The arithmetic is simple: if there were 40 possible attack directions, five operators per entry point. I understand that Russians do have a stock of anti-tank missiles, is that right?
(2) Why is the Russian Air Force reacting so feebly to the shelling equipment (MLRS, Guided or Precision Missiles)? I can think of a array of high-flying aircraft operating at a safe distance from Ukrainian missiles (their anti-aircraft systems) that could silence any target in less than 2 minutes. This works under the assumptions (1) that the Su-35 can fly below the sound barrier at 16,000 m for two hours; (2) that 100km from active front is ample distance (I am thinking that in the event of a major missile attack, the aircraft stands a good chance to outmaneuver a missile). It would require at least two Su-35s per active front flying subsonic and armed with smart missiles. Assuming six active fronts this makes it 36/ 72 aircraft devoted to the purpose in the summer time, less in the winter. For effectiveness, each missile the aircraft carry could have been assigned a default target.
Which of my assumptions are incorrect? What loss of aircraft has the Russian AF suffered?
Thanks beforehand for any answers,
Regards
@vec
Posted by: @vec | Oct 3 2022 15:18 utc | 54
The Ukr army advancing forces are getting massacred in the 'abandoned' areas. What the use of a headlong attack without air cover? The steppe is going to be a muddy hole within days. The US/UK are pushing the Ukr fools to sacrifice themselves, so that at least one man from an Ukrainian family would be dead to keep up the Russo-hate.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 3 2022 15:19 utc | 55
Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 3 2022 14:51 utc | 44
"B-String of NS2 remains serviceable."
I sed so on this blog a few days ago. The lines surely have cathodic protection, so there is a time window of protection until the cathodes are consumed by the seawater.
And the operator has equipment/contractors for replacing sections of pipe [https://www.wermac.org/nordstream/nordstream_part9.html]. The only question is how sanctions may hamstring subcontractors. I am also sure that NS1 can be repaired.
The more difficult task will be preventing US/UK/Poland from repating their mafia-like criminal act.
Posted by: tunabe | Oct 3 2022 15:20 utc | 56
The Great Reset crowd want a destroyed world in which to create their dystopian nightmare of transhumanism control....a nuclear war will reduce the population dramatically and destroy the nation state concept...plus wipe out pesky populations that formed the concept of individual liberty etc....the globalists are trying to incite a nuclear response from Russia so they can come out of their massive bunkers and take over. Russia is slowly and methodically securing it's border lands with minimal losses in civilian and combat troops and every day closer to winter the Western economy teeters on collapse. Not be word being released by the Western media is credible as unbiased truth
Posted by: Joe | Oct 3 2022 15:28 utc | 57
EU announced that they'll train 15k nazis.
Nazis shot 2 himars in Donetsk today. One intercepted, one seems to have hit its target, Green Plaza shopping center.
The General Staff is again a failure. Where is Marty from America to kiss their little butts a bit.
Posted by: rk | Oct 3 2022 15:30 utc | 58
“I confess to being a little rattled by the lack of apparent reaction by Russia to the latest battlefield circumstances, from here in TN, so I have to believe there is a psychological component to this. Tomorrow I believe all formalities will be complete so this has to be on the minds of Ukrainians.
“If I were them I'd be nervous about what may happen next.”
Ukraine knows what’s next. They don’t care, because it’s their best hope of involving the entire world in what they’ve called a likely, “limited” nuclear war. Well, they are likely to get their nuclear war. How limited it is, for them or anyone else, we’ll probably find out.
I’ll happily eat crow if I’m wrong, but Putin has unmistakably warned that he is preparing to use nuclear weaponry to defend the new territories of Russia. He has put no conditions on their use, other than continued offensives by Ukraine, which expects to be struck and doesn’t seem to care.
Certainly the most dangerous time since the Cuban missile crisis, whether or not people notice or empty supermarkets. You would expect them not to notice, since they’ve been so comfortable or oblivious about everything so far.
Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 15:31 utc | 59
TomUK
You are being misled by a U.S. sponsored astroturf campaign. Try not to be a tool of western interventionism.
Posted by: nwwoods | Oct 3 2022 15:32 utc | 60
Something people should be thinking about is that the Ukrainians might be using their sequence of attacks to knock down the Russians' WILL to resist too, and not merely their ability to fight. After seven months of war, AFU knows how the Russian Army thinks. So, if there is any military that knows how to collapse the current Russian Army's will to fight by multiple defeats inflicted quickly.That military belongs to Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1576920243854667777?s=21
The Russian military is in a world of hurt on multiple fronts of the battlefield. There is an increasing possibility that they could lose their will to resist.
Few nations have as deep a sense of their own history as the Russians. Indeed, it was on the basis of a tendentious tract about the historic 'unity' of Russians and Ukrainians that President Putin justified his invasion of an independent neighbouring state.But another word, also with great resonance in Russian history, now hangs over the Kremlin's flailing military campaign. And that word is: Mutiny.
Remarkably, it was raised on Moscow's main TV channel last week by the woman described as Putin's propagandist-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, during the nightly discussion programme on the state of the 'special military operation'.
The striking-looking Simonyan is the head of RT, the Kremlin's English-language broadcasting network (now banned in the UK); but here she was speaking to a Russian audience. She was raging about the incompetence with which Putin's 'partial mobilisation', announced on September 21, was being carried out, and the gross inadequacy of the provisions being supplied to the hundreds of thousands being called up to fight: 'Students, people with serious illnesses, single mothers, people as old as 62 . . . and being handed rotten things, no helmets or body armour.' Like the invasion of Ukraine, the 1905 Russo-Japanese war saw the much larger country suffer from a series of blunders based on an exaggerated sense of its own military capability — and, to some astonishment, the Japanese won.
The morale and will to fight is paramount in a military. This is being steadily eroded by the Ukrainian military with their superior operational design.
Posted by: Peter Besscom | Oct 3 2022 15:33 utc | 61
"It is clear to me that Russia will lose Kherson, Zaporizhia and western Luhansk shortly."
It is clear to you. And who are you to offer such pearls of wisdom? Since you appeared on this site as a troll just a few weeks ago, it tells me lot about your intelligence services ability. Too bad you are using so much space and waste our time, but that is OK, words are cheap.
Really, who do you think you are? Some self assessment would be usefull, for you to better understand yourself and for us to see what we are dealing with.
Posted by: zidar | Oct 3 2022 15:38 utc | 62
People, i find it odd that when 3 from 4 pipelines are bombed, both a Nato member opposed to NS2 or Russia would deliberately opt to make the only one left standing the NS2 line B:
https://www.rt.com/business/563967-russia-gazprom-nord-stream-revival/
Perhaps one of the explosive devices failed to fire, in which case one may expect evidence of its retrieval at some point.
Perhaps someone at the Pentagon finally read their copy of Sun Tsu and now believes in Golden Bridges after all.
Perhaps whoever did it was so confident that NS2 will never open, that leaving it there gave them further opportunity to impose their will on Germany and prevent them to fast track its approval... Yeah, it's bollocks i know.
More likely, they left it deliberately intact, so that when blaming Russia they could use it as further 'evidence' of Putin's cynical 3D chess move, implying that Russia wanted to open NS2 at all costs and destroyed all other 3 pipes to achieve this. This sounds like robbing Peter's peanuts to pay Paul in gold, but would be exactly the shallow, arrogant and patronising logic the Neocons would justify to themselves as credible to the public.
While docile, brainwashed Westerners and casual observers may buy it, it does seem utterly ridiculous the Russians would do that.
The whole incident is very odd indeed in its entirety, from its perpetration to the reactions in the media and across the world. This whodunnit is more and more reminiscent of one of my favourite scenes from The Princess Bride:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMz7JBRbmNo
All being said, even a skeptic like me must now account for a few more % points from of nearly Zero that it was still some weird desperate 9D chess move of sorts not by Nato... Why? The latest developments on the front, some of the mobilisation allegations and the clumsy nature of the annexations have bred some cynicism about how in control of the whole situation Russia really is.
Posted by: Et Tu | Oct 3 2022 15:44 utc | 63
These threads where everyone just argues about up-to-the-minute but unreliable telegram updates are wild. Let me ask you if you believe everything you read on western social media or assume that much of it is manipulated either intentionally or unintentionally? Social media is always an echo chamber, and in this case rumors bounce around and get amplified. Look at how many telegram posts from fairly significant channels report something by reposting from another channel without openly doing so (the little repost indicator at the top) but then the repost is referencing the channel doing the repost. It's a mess and the breaking info is almost always coming from militia sources with all the complications there, like some resentment at being told what to do by the AFR and belief that if Russia had just given them what they needed, then or now, the whole thing would be over. (Whether that's true or not is immaterial)
Martynov (sp) may be a pompous ass, but one of his criticisms dead on. For the most part all the war porn and battle updates are extremely micro scale events, and the problem with the maps everyone publishes that don't have any scale is serious. Dima does this too, zooming way into the maps and making the issues look like they're happening at large scale and then when he tries to move the map there's a furious zooming out and scrolling. These are primarily small villages and relatively small force movements in both directions (often exaggerated, see above) that get blown out of proportion. Does Russia have issues? Yes. At the very least at the tactical level there are issues which can probably be attributed to A. common military incompetence, B. common military slowness, C. problems with an ununified command structure, D. different priorities related to that command structure and the patchwork of militias, PMCs, etc. and E. that war is messy.
Posted by: Lex | Oct 3 2022 15:44 utc | 64
@ line islands #60
I really hope we'll see something in between what they're doing now and nukes. Something more robust and definitive but shy of nuclear weapons, because it seems to me that genie will be hard to get back in the bottle.
Posted by: chunga | Oct 3 2022 15:45 utc | 65
Wargonzo reports that Moldova and Romania are preparing to attack Transnistria.
This inside info they claim to have is supported by a new prank by Vovan and Lexus on Maya Sandu which will be published soon. For now only a preview is available.
Check their telegram channels, it's all there
Posted by: rk | Oct 3 2022 15:49 utc | 66
Fruit flies and time stops
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
They can only wish they were mosquitos.
· · ·
The fog of war is eminently clear to see but some think this means one can see through it rather than see the fog itself.
Yep, sure, that fits. Scroll XD
· · ·
The Russian "nuclear stuff" has been deployed since forever (always ready to fire, like everyone else) but in addition the missile forces have been on the highest possible level of active operational readiness since February (no additional response time, everyone is already behaving as if the launch orders and/or incoming attacks will arrive immediately).
However in order not to be a complete idiot one should have some awareness (however light) that this is certain to include much more than "Satans lurking in the forests". Unfortunately there are plenty of idiots; people don't want to think or talk about it, and western puppets (aka "leaders") can't even understand any of it.
Then the US tries to copy the warnings they're being given and pretend that they're the ones who are in a position to make them against others. Pure distilled denial.
That's some low level 4-year old's failed lies right there.
And they make Biden parrot it.
That's abuse.
He's still supposed to have human rights despite being POTUS.
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 3 2022 15:53 utc | 67
@ Petri Krohn | Oct 1 2022 18:35 utc | 104
Thanks for that idea...
Just a technical question.
How long to repare a blown underwater pipeline ?
How long to repare/rebuild a "self blown" LNG Terminal?
But The Song Remains The Same
Is NATO,"Hoist with his own petard"?
AfD, Alice Weidel call for a serious investigation and prosecution of the perpetrators.
But above all the repair and commissioning of Nord Stream 2, which does not require such a long procedure.
https://youtu.be/yZifG9_gTpU
So "Open NS2!" could still be a "Berlin Calling"
The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin
Engines stop running but I have no fear
'Cause London is drowning and I live by theriverNordStream
Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 3 2022 15:54 utc | 68
The most ridiculous and hypocritical aspect of Martyanov and his ilk is their stubborn refusal to analyse and assess the reason of major tactical-operational defeats like the ones in Izyum, Balakleya, Lyman.
On the one hand those pompous asses haughtily declare that it is impossible to judge and assess with any certainty what is going on, as we don't have the same info as the general staff.
on the other, martyanov is happily quoting every second post analysts like Larry from sonar21.com, or Douglas MacGregor, who engage in precisely the type of analysis Martyanov declares as useless. It seems that when this analysis is biased in favor of the Russians, it's somehow acceptable to do it.
That's quite a weasely, double-faced attitude. If Martyanov was consequent, he would not repost ANYTHING. But, like a coward, he hides behind the opinions of others and when things go south declares with satisfaction that he will not analyse or evaluate anything. apparently old Soviet movies are a more pressing matter than the question of whether Ukraine will not push forward up to the borders of Russia proper.
Clowns.
Posted by: Micron | Oct 3 2022 15:55 utc | 69
Et Tu | Oct 3 2022 15:44 utc | 64
What at the moment appears the different nature of the various damaged sections makes it unlikely to be explosives placed by a submersible. There was air exercises over the Baltic sea beginning on the 26th. I assume air exercises over the sea would involve some anti submarine warfare.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 15:55 utc | 70
I confess to being a little rattled by the lack of apparent reaction by Russia to the latest battlefield circumstances, from here in TN, so I have to believe there is a psychological component to this. Tomorrow I believe all formalities will be complete so this has to be on the minds of Ukrainians.
If I were them I'd be nervous about what may happen next.
Posted by: chunga | Oct 3 2022 14:42 utc | 40
From my perch north of you, it seems to me the nervous ones ought to be the 4 areas that have been "brought back home," so to speak.
I've also been a bit unnerved by the casual response to moving backwards (intentional or not) so I'm also hoping it's just part of some Grand Plan.
Posted by: Michigan Dude | Oct 3 2022 15:57 utc | 71
Posted by: Lex | Oct 3 2022 15:44 utc | 65
All the propaganda from the west relating to Ukraine originates only from a few sources. First one is the "official UAF defense channel" which seems to be run by secondary school aged teenagers maybe on-the-job training or some other cognitively retarded people based on the content they spew. Then the whole MSM eco chamber grabs and spreads their stuff. Probably Zelensky's "team" tells them what kind of stories should be written. Then it spread in social media eco chamber etc. Then it all disintegrates into 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc. hand rumors.
The secondary source are think tanks operating from Brussels or London usually run by political scientists, or russophobes by design.
The number of outlets is irrelevant when determining if something is true or not. But the number of outlets may make something seem "more true" for docile people who have had their brain numbed over years by purely living in the brain dead media environment.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 16:00 utc | 72
west is continuing its politics of slowly boiling humiliation of russia. the newest order from america's mafia bosses are summons of russian ambassadors in nato countries to respective foreign affairs departments and gave them slap in the face because of referendums.
Posted by: denazi | Oct 3 2022 16:02 utc | 73
tunabe @57--
Thanks for your reply. Yes, the RT article confirms speculations, so the issue devolves to other questions. The most pertinent IMO was raised by Putin in his Mobilization Speech and the following Q&A involving Lavrov:
"Question: Is it possible to further find a common language with racists?
"Sergey Lavrov: I think not. President of Russia Vladimir Putin said today in a generalized form what we have been warning about for many years and urged us to come to our senses.
"Vladimir Putin said "masks have been dropped". I believe that racism has not disappeared, as we now understand. If earlier we thought that this was latent racism, now it is clear that this is the most direct, frank, rude.
"We will develop in such a way as not to depend on any racists, but to depend on ourselves and those people around the world who rely on us."
For many years, Russia turned its back to rabid Russophobia but then the Outlaw US Empire revamped Hitler's Plan Ost as its Russia policy goal--Putin's statements about the Empire's aims to destroy Russia are 100% fact which forms the Existential nature of the current struggle. That European Russophobes are groomed to behave in that manner proves the Empire's determination for its policy to succeed even at the expense of ordinary Europeans and Ukrainians--they clearly don't matter just as any civilian in any of the Empire's war zones has never mattered. Yes, Putin and Russia generally tried to have it both ways by aiding ordinary citizens while trying to restrain their politicos only to see those politicos attack their own people just as the Empire does non-combatants. We also just witnessed what happened politically as the number of people protesting dropped like a rock after the pipeline terrorism. But that dynamic just changed with the announcement that B String is viable.
The situation is complicated by the contracts as Germany is obliged to pay Russia for gas whether it's delivered or not, which also means that Russia must supply it if possible. So, what to do with racist Northern Europeans who don't give a damn about their citizens? We know that the Empire can't provide enough gas at appropriate prices to keep Europe's industry alive; for that to happen, Russian gas is required. The EU overall and its individual nations all face a dire economic crisis of which there're several facets that relate to energy and Ukraine. IMO, it's critical that citizens escalate pressure on their politicos as they have common cause with industrialists who really need to people's support to overcome the Neoliberal Parasites that have gained control of too many European nations AND the EU.
To drive the issue, Russia must mount a very potent offensive in Ukraine so Zelensky howls for more support from an almost bankrupt EU/NATO. (Recall how the Lend/Lease system works--Ukraine gets lent arms while EU leases them.) And at the same time, Europeans must pour out into the streets in protest. IMO, both events need to occur to push the political crisis.
Signal to noise ratio on this thread is particularly low.
Particularly interesting is the low to zero credibility commentary by new people who are idiots. I really like how villages that were taken months ago were non-events, but now they are "game changing".
Until I see credible numbers of Russian, Chechen, LDPR, Rosguardia and/or Wagner losses - the squirming of dots on a map is irrelevant.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 3 2022 16:03 utc | 75
Well said Lex ( Oct 3 2022 15:44 utc | 65 ).
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Oct 3 2022 16:04 utc | 76
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 3 2022 14:52 utc | 45
Never thought to look before, your site is great, congrats!
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 16:05 utc | 77
Last report Gazprom: 03.10.22
Strand B v Nordsontream II still seems to be operational and was probably overlooked by the saboteurs !!!
.
Is now emptied and checked for operational readiness with pressure tests.
Posted by: Mo3 | Oct 3 2022 16:08 utc | 78
VPN issues or link to YT?
3rd test...
@ Petri Krohn | Oct 1 2022 18:35 utc | 104
Thanks for that idea...blowin' an LNG Terminal
Just a technical question.
How long to repare a blown underwater pipeline ?
How long to repare/rebuild a "unfortunately self blown up" LNG Terminal?
But Tit for Tat...How long without polical ( and a German one) Antwort...
Could NATO been "Hoist with his own petard"?
AfD, Alice Weidel call for a serious investigation and prosecution of the perpetrators.
But above all the repair and commissioning of Nord Stream 2, which does not require such a long procedure.
Search this 6mn video on YT
yZifG9_gTpU
So "Open NS2" could still be a "Berlin Calling"
The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin
Engines stop running but I have no fear
'Cause London is drowning and I live by theriverNordStream
Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 3 2022 16:09 utc | 79
From Slavyangrad.....
On 1 October 2022, the AFU command deployed up to 50 vehicles for an attack on Davydov Brod.
The infantry participated in the battle with pickups as well as tanks and armoured personnel carriers.
The reconnaissance units of the Southern Military District, together with the soldiers from the Far East, spotted the enemy in advance. The forward units of the 234th and 76th Airborne Regiments destroyed the advancing formations and shelled them with artillery and army aviation fire.
The surviving enemy infantry scattered into the surrounding forests.
Synopsis at 19:00, 3rd October 2022
At the Dutchani-Nova Kamianka line there is an attack by about 3 battalions of the AFU (a tank battalion and two motorized infantry battalions).
The number of destroyed enemy equipment is counted in dozens.
Paratroopers confidently destroy the enemy.
Apparently, the Ukies tactics spawned counter tactics...
And....
The rains came.....
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 3 2022 16:11 utc | 81
@young 36
There are over 15,000 known strategic nuclear devices on this planet. There are stockpiles of components, some in countries maintaining a break-out capability, that could be assembled into another 50,000 or so devices in days or weeks.
We have known since at least 2014 that use of more than 100 medium scale weapons on cities would inject sufficient soot into the stratosphere to cause a global"nuclear winter" and inhibit photosynthesis for about 10 years (refer Mills, Michael J., Owen B. Toon, Julia Lee‐Taylor, and Alan Robock. "Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict." Earth's Future 2, no. 4 (2014): 161-176. Accessed https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000205 2020-10-18). This combination of dark and cold will eliminate most extant species of plants and animals, terrestrial and marine, and there are no grounds to think that humans would be an exception.
The level of death and resulting drop in oxygen levels are likely to result in the release of anaerobic life forms from TT he oce as n floor, which would drive methane and hydrogen sulfide levels upward, contributing to try the extinction event snd transition of the atmosphere and waters of the earth into an environment inimical to current life. So unless you hate humans and the biosphere, hoping for a nuclear war is probably a mistake.
The bible is a poorly edited mess of syncretic accretions of poorly written bronze age writings about mythical god thingies. It has no relevance or predictive value in the modern world, and believing, in the face of the evidence, that it has, is prima facie evidence of psychosis, the inability to distinguish between the imaginary and more than imaginary.
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 3 2022 16:12 utc | 82
The Italian newspaper La Repubblica rings the alarm bells.
“Putin appears to be on the verge of a new challenge to the West... The alarm stems from a NATO intelligence report released to Allied high commands in recent days. The report concerns the movements of the nuclear submarine "Belgorod" ... There are fears that its mission is to test for the first time in history the ultra-silent and super-powerful torpedo-drone "Poseidon", which is often called the "weapon of the Apocalypse".
"Poseidon is capable of generating a radioactive tsunami near the coast, being released from a distance of 10 thousand kilometers (a quarter of the globe). And an infected wave is capable of demolishing such megacities as New York or Los Angeles. "Poseidon" is approaching the target at a kilometer depth at a speed of 200 km/h. There is no way to stop this underwater torpedo drone. A warhead on it with a capacity of up to 100 megatons. The explosion of this thermonuclear torpedo off the coast of Britain will raise a giant wave up to 500 meters high. Such a water squall also carries an extreme dose of radiation. Passing over the British Isles, it will turn what may be left of them into a radioactive desert. And how is the prospect?"
This Poseidon can swim underwater 500m depth and can go on for more than 3 months, as it has a nuclear engine, it can go on and on, not just 10000kms, and after launching the missile, it can dive down to 1000m. This is what we informed of by social networks, newspapers, but no one really knows how much it can do.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 3 2022 16:13 utc | 83
A few relevant Tg links:
1- Beyond Ukrop/US propaganda regarding "wunder-eyes in the sky". What is true (and not) regarding the superior use of intel by the US and its proxies and its impact on nazis counter-battery work. https://t.me/rybar/39679
2- Killing the messenger: the attempts (by political vested interests) to suppress the patriotic role of military correspondents. https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/18483
3- When it becomes obvious to the russian population that RF were badly failing in terms of intel and communications, this reminds everyone that the best of the soviet military heritage was (and is) dilapidated,such as RVVKUS, whose iconic building was sold by the Kremlin and its wunder-generals to a "businessman in 2022. (No it was not the fault of the pizza guy or the drunk guy or banderists) The formidable (Soviet AND Russian) industrial, human capabilities were destroyed but now even the physical memory of it. As if the financialized, consumer societies of the "partners" were a model.
https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/42952
Despite the sabotage of military institutions by the Atlanticists in and around the Kremlin, Russian military and society will prevail:
https://t.me/sskarnaukhov/29616
4- 1.5 million military uniforms "disappeared" from russian stocks under the "leadership" of the top guy appointed by Putin to manage logistics (sic), Dmitry Bulgakov, who had 14 years to do sabotage (from 2008 to 2022). Echoes of arab neocolonized "elites".
https://t.me/colonel_cassad/106593
Of course it is trivial compared to US MIC levels of corruption and failures (not to mention the ukrop regimes). But US oligarchy and murikans' fake generals have (for now) the printing press and are forcing the ROW to pay for their inefficient junk hardware and their brazen theft.
5) Still, modern Russian society being what it is, will prevail against NATO terror, and despite their internal traitors in Moscow or Occupied Palestine. Thanks God for the ordinary, pragmatic and proud russian people.
With such men on the front and such amazing women in the rear, Russia will always succeed in protecting its borders: https://t.me/sskarnaukhov/29613
Posted by: Kareem | Oct 3 2022 16:15 utc | 84
@ahole 5
Trying to determine if you are a gullible fool, who might learn better, a liar with sn agenda who can't, or a troll to be ignored. Do you really imagine that Stalin was "a traitor to humanity"? If so, upon what grounds?
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 3 2022 16:16 utc | 85
@Mo3 #79,
What a turn of events! So actually, the NATO sabotage of those pipes did not remove the chance for Nord Stream gas to be turned back on, but simply acted as a warning that pipelines to Europe are vulnerable to attack & those countries should be worried about doing anything against the interests of a hostile power with the capability (now demonstrated) to do so. It looks like that NATO sabotage actually served Russia's interests!
Unless... nah. Let's not overthink this one. NATO probably forgot about that pipe.
Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 16:21 utc | 88
Southern Ontario-its lowest area—on the Ottawa River—is only 150 feet (45 metres) above sea level.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 3 2022 16:24 utc | 89
“I really hope we'll see something in between what they're doing now and nukes. Something more robust and definitive but shy of nuclear weapons, because it seems to me that genie will be hard to get back in the bottle.“
I hope so too and doubt it. Putin has said the threat to Russia from the West is existential, and he, and the entire leadership, is promising to use nuclear weapons to defend new Russian territory on what he calls the Truman precedent.
If Russian forces are seriously mauled in the east, Russia will face the prospect of a NATO-controlled army barreling into Russia just a short drive from Moscow and the Caucasus, with its economy under virtual blockade, and high risks of civil breakdown and government collapse. The Kazakhstan operation, to Putin, showed what the West is capable of, in terms of stirring up mere anarchy. The threat is existential for him. Publicly enumerated Russian nuclear policy calls for a first strike if any conventional attack poses an existential threat to the Russian state.
The West isn’t understanding Putin because he’s speaking in a language of Cold War nuclear calculus that, in the West, has gone the way of Sanskrit. The West simply believes that the Russian Federation, unlike the Soviet Union, is not entitled to nuclear deterrence, whether or not it has 6,000 warheads. Which is insane, obviously.
The loss of a fine feeling for nuclear calculus and of sensitivity to the balance of terror is why Westerners, even friends of Russia, did not understand the import and incredible ominousness of Putin’s last speech.
I would brace for impact.
Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 16:24 utc | 90
Possible sitrep info, Ukrainian forces, including international mercenaries of which you can see waving their countries flags in the link, have suffered heavy losses to reach this position.
"As of October 3, no advance of the Ukrainian military towards Kremennaya was reported. The AFU are currently reinforcing their positions in Krasny Liman and the village of Torskoe located nearby. Ukrainian artillery is shelling the Russian military positions on the western outskirts of Kremennaya, preparing for the upcoming offensive operations. The village of Rubezhnoye located on the north-western outskirts of the Severodonetsk-Lisichansk agglomeration is also heavily shelled by Ukrainian forces.
North of Krasny Liman, the assault groups of the AFU are already attacking the road from their military positions in Terny. The Ukrainian military attempt to take control of the villages of Krasnopopovka and Peschanoe located on a hill from where they could establish a fire control on the highway. In the case of the Ukrainian success, the AFU could cut the road and surround the town of Kremennaya from the north.
The town of Svatovo is also an important target for the Ukrainian military. Amid the threat of Ukrainian offensive from the southern direction, the AFU continue their advance in the area of the Oskol water reservoir, located west of Svatovo. The offensive operations are also expected from the northern directions, where the AFU are reinforcing their positions in the Kupyansk region.
On October 3, the AFU claimed control of the villages of Borovaya and Shyikovka located on the left bank of the Oskol water reservoir. The Russian military is withdrawing forces in the area in an attempt to strengthen their defense in the Rayhorodok-Svatovo region."
Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 3 2022 16:26 utc | 91
And at the same time, Europeans must pour out into the streets in protest. IMO, both events need to occur to push the political crisis.Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 3 2022 16:03 utc | 74
Absolutely right.
Even a military victory of Russia in Ukraine is not a long term solution.
Multipolarity needs Europeans to the streets. But who is calling for that?
Our "left" is just organising march in order to obtain wage increase or social benefits... No strike to stop pumping weaponary to the front...
The Anti imperialist fight called by Poutin seem to be only received in Europe by "far right populist" nationalists. Take a look on #80.
Yes, and a few of us still faithful to the convictions acquired in January and September 1973.
Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 3 2022 16:28 utc | 92
Posted by: zidar | Oct 3 2022 15:38 utc | 63
Nobody is paying me to hang here.
But you have some points. I am frustrated after emotionally investing myself at Russias side for these 6 months. And I am venting it here on an anonymous forum to make myself feel better. It is not good and I should not have done it.
It maybe also says something about my level of dedication and character, screaming bloody murder after a setback or loss.
The thing is, if the Russians arent able to defend those territories, why did they entrap the people to vote in referenda and suffer punishment for it? Its evil.
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 3 2022 16:29 utc | 93
line islands | Oct 3 2022 16:24 utc | 91
Best to read Russia's military doctrine. US wants nothing to do with direct conflict with Russia. As you will see in the coming weeks Russia does not require nukes to dispose of a few shinhead football hooligan gangs.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 16:29 utc | 94
..but simply acted as a warning that pipelines to Europe are vulnerable to attack..
Yenwoda @ 89
The land-based Yamal gas pipeline is still full of gas, has about 5 atm pressure in it. If it gets blown up, cities will be blown off. It is running across Poland and part of Germany.
Posted by: Paulg | Oct 3 2022 16:30 utc | 95
The NATO troll factories have entirely taken over this thread. It's clearly a big offensive to destroy the last vestiges of reason and rationality, and to gaslight us into believing that miniature advances are really big successes. When the Russians advanced that much, the trolls denied any advance had taken place, but now it's a great victory when it's the Ukies doing it.
Posted by: laguerre | Oct 3 2022 16:32 utc | 97
Kherson situation update from RT :
Kiev’s counter attacks on Kherson have failed – top official
https://www.rt.com/russia/563979-kiev-kherson-attack-repelled/
Posted by: YIU | Oct 3 2022 16:33 utc | 98
@alek_a #94
It is your own fault that you got addicted to war porn.
Neither Russia's political and military leadership nor anyone else get anything from your desire to vicariously live off people dying, nor am I the least bit sympathetic that your choosing of the "winning side" is no longer giving you the thrills it once did.
Make no mistake: this is the real world.
Shit happens.
Nothing to to heaven or hell in a straight line.
Either learn to understand what is really going on or find another hobby.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 3 2022 16:34 utc | 99
"Nobody is paying me to hang here."
Posted by: alek_a | Oct 3 2022 16:29 utc | 94
All trolls say that.
Posted by: laguerre | Oct 3 2022 16:34 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
Rybar:
The Battle for Kherson: the situation at the Berislavsky site
as of 15.00 on October 3, 2022
Ukrainian formations resumed an active offensive on the village of Dudchany along the right bank of the Dnieper. If successful, the APU will be able to continue moving to the Chalk or try to reach the flank of the Russian Armed Forces on the Krivoy Rog section.
By this hour, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of 128 ogshbr, 17 otbr and 60 opbr managed to gain a foothold at the Lubomirovka — Belyaevka — Novoaleksandrovka line and equip advanced control points.
▪ After the arrival of additional reserves in the area of Novoaleksandrovka, the AFU units began storming Russian positions in the Dudchan area.
At the same time, the APU plans to launch an offensive on Novodmitrovka from the vicinity of Arkhangelsk and Novovoskresenskoye from Belyaevka.
▪ Russian artillery, MLRS and aviation are firing at the advancing enemy.
Posted by: marko | Oct 3 2022 12:16 utc | 1