Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 02, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-164

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on October 2, 2022 at 12:19 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@SeanAU #200,

no mention of the sudden increase in shelling by Ukrainian military (as reported by the OSCE) into the Donbass civilian populations in those 7-10 days before the SMO was decided???

OSCE never reported that. They reported explosions, most of which occurred in separatist-controlled territory. B took OSCE's map of explosions, made the elementary error of assuming they all represented incoming fire, and made the claim that you repeat above. However, the type of most of the explosions was not determined and of the ones that were, most were *outgoing*, not incoming fire.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 2:39 utc | 201

Oblomovka daydream #108

WOW. Thank you. If that was Putins intended reference, then he is a worthy leader indeed.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 3 2022 2:40 utc | 202

I heard that the ukraine lost a shit load of tanks in kerson today in another failed attack. Its a turkey shoot guys!

Posted by: Dan 'Iron' Rockson | Oct 3 2022 1:48 utc | 186

And yet, as various Russian telegram channels have reported, Russian forces had to abandon many settlements in the gray zone. Constant retreat on all fronts is hardly a winning strategy.

Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 3 2022 2:58 utc | 203

Whether one likes Mr Martyanov's style or not, he is undeniably correct in that the small backward and forward daily movements in war are irrelevant to the overall strategic movements. Which is why listening to MSM quoting trolls is a waste of time, as opposed to a well argued counter narrative that ignites objective thought. We all know Russia is reinforcing, and that the SMO restrictions will end, perhaps we should just sit back and observe what happens next, if that is a fizzer then it might be time to reevaluate, it would seem though things will more likely start to again go badly for Ukraine.

Posted by: Organic | Oct 3 2022 2:58 utc | 204

SeanAU | Oct 3 2022 1:56 utc | 191
Sean #NATO twitter @NATO *is* at war with Russia.
Take a break from here and scroll the @NATO twitter.
Every nation (maybe not Turkey) is sending money, men and machines.

Re your roll call..
Is Russia at war with Turkey?
Hmmm. It’s working with Turkey as a negotiation representative.
With Hungary?
Hungary is getting real grief from EU for its recalcitrance.
With the Czech Republic?
Yes.
Greece?
Yes. The US are adding a base there right now… trampling a Turkey-Greece treaty
With Iceland, ?
Yes
North Macedonia, ?
Yes
Italy, ?
Yes
Portugal ?
Yes
Slovenia?
Yes.
You: “No, I do not think it is at war with these nations or their people.”
M: Not the people. One of the “why now” reasons for the US to destroy NS1+2 was the growing groundswell protests by the literally unwashed Germans to open NS2. The people don’t want war. Most don’t even want Ukrainian flags in their social media anymore.
>… Scroll the @NATO twitter. Not a day passes that the alliance does not activate one or more of its puppies to yap at Russia.
Yes. It’s war.
And it’s spreading…. South Korea just submitted and is sending weapons to Ukraine (via a cutout).
Why has Australia previously sent weapons? To Ukraine? Nowhere near us. And they’d have us send more…. But we’re being held in reserve for China v Taiwan.
Take a good look at what’s happening with bases in Western Australia…and with Edith Cowan University.
Shutdown….. Aussies couldn’t access WA, but international flights from the US could… because of the flow back and forward to the bases..

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 3:00 utc | 205

Belgorod Today (telegram channel) is reporting that the regional military commissar Valery Gritsai was removed from his post. A number of publicly published facts, including about the relationship with opponents, according to our interlocutor, were confirmed. Mr. Gritsai may face serious and severe criminal punishment.


Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 3 2022 3:10 utc | 206

Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 3:00 utc | 208 "Aussies couldn’t access WA, but international flights from the US could… because of the flow back and forward to the bases.."

That says it all. I think I put in a comment on one of the previous threads that due to the exchange rate, Australia is wide open to being looted by the US. US is causing a food shortage in the world. As Putin said, the grain being shipped out of Ukraine was American grain because they owned the farmlands. I expect the same to occur here.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 3:19 utc | 207

David Levin | Oct 3 2022 1:46 utc | 185

Yep. Movies based on true events I tend to remember no matter what country they originated from.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 3:34 utc | 208

Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 3:19 utc | 210
You know the Aussie Central Bank went belly up the night before the Dead Queen public holiday.
Watcher and I picked up on the Reuters release at 6pm the Wednesday before everyone pissed off for a long-long weekend. With the AFL that weekend also….
I’ve not seen another pixel about this “sorry, we’re broke” announcement.
I’m not a finance guy… but something about bonds taken out to pay for the 2year stay home convid …..
Anyway the Reserve has no reserves, it says…. But not to worry…we’ll just print more….is exactly what they said.
I’m not a finance guy, but I’m sure that’s not the best solution.

Also… Seems trebley suspicious as the European winter no gas no electricity catastrophe was likely to pass us by… being as we’d have summer, and gas and coal and hydro and some food self sufficiency.
But with the Reserve bank now all broke…. we can get hoovered into the mess along with the rest….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 3:34 utc | 209

So I suppose German CDU speaker Friedrich Merz DID correctly predict the date of which an event everyone would remember that began WW3, but failed to anticipate the delayed reaction of Russia?

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-september-24-disaster-theory-403065152476

It was thoroughly discussed here and has now undeniably come to fruition.

Germany obviously knew, foreknowledge clear to absolutely everyone with eyes now, and was anticipating a far more dramatic response from the RFU. The fact that RFU did NOT respond immediately as the .gov and thinktanks anticipated goes a long way.. The west has clearly planned for and failed to determine a Russian response. The fact that they distributed this info clear down to the deepstate level of MSM indicates they failed to correctly (using AI too no doubt) to foresee whatever is coming next after blatant US infrastructure terrorism. Scary times.

Posted by: NJH | Oct 3 2022 3:42 utc | 210

Turk 152 | Oct 3 2022 2:21 utc | 194

Erdogan is very much a savvy player on this multiplayer chessboard. It reminds me of an ending shootout in a Clint Eastwood film where each of the three are looking at the other two trying to decide who those other two are going to shoot at. Erdo is walking the razors edge and doing it well. If we were to say there are three players, it would be US, Russia and Turkey.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 3:45 utc | 211

@Peter AU1, genuine belly laugh at you thinking "Man On Fire" is based on a true story. Great Denzel flick though and Tony Scott's best by far.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 3:46 utc | 212

Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 3:34 utc | 212

I hadn't picked up on that but I wrote a few things in comments to myself on my vk account about and hour back. I had spent a few hours going through the social media accounts of full time speculation gamblers. The crisis with British pension funds is only the tip of the iceberg. Others are close to the same. Investment banks, a number are on the edge of the cliff.

Western economy is based on faith. When that goes which it will, the whole rotten edifice will crumble. Escobar often writes of derivatives. When faith goes this time, 2008 will look like a light smack on the hand. A kiddies party. Pensions, superannuation, stocks, banks all gone. Western economy on QE life support since 2008 with structural problems unaddressed....The US controlled west is in the perfect storm of its own making.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 4:06 utc | 213

Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 3:46 utc | 215

I shouldn't reply to paid trolls but it appears your paymasters feel the need to refute my comments.

The trolls, hand wringers and good time girls are making hay in this short period the nazi sun appears to shine. Enjoy while you can.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 4:14 utc | 214

A short break in the Russian clouds as the storm is gathering and the Nazi's think their summer will last forever...minds destroyed by pharmaceutical chemical courage and US bullshit.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 4:20 utc | 215

@ Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 2:39 utc | 204

Dear Know Nothing-Say Anything Yenwoda the resident disruptive Troll and forum Flamer,

I'm sure you don't care about being labelled as the Lying bullshitter that you are.

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 40/2022 - 21 February 2022
https://www.osce.org/files/2022-02-20-21%20Daily%20Report_ENG.pdf?itok=82567

I certainly do not care what you believe, say, or care about ' Yenwoda' (sic). I and many others can read and think for themselves well enough to complete ignore and dismiss out of hand your ignorant lies and many manipulations of the truth.

But it is pleasurable to rub salt into the exposure of your dishonesty and incompetence.
https://www.osce.org/gsearch?qr=2022%20february%20donbass%20shelling%20
https://www.osce.org/gsearch?qr=2022%20february%20ceasefire%20violations

EXAMPLE of factual evidence from the OSCE reports include
..... from 00:01 on 27 July 2020 until the end of the reporting period, the SMM has recorded at least 114,999 ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions (including 33,785 explosions, 26,077 projectiles in flight, 487 muzzle flashes, 516 illumination flares, and at least 54,134 bursts and shots)

and

Mykolaivka (government-controlled, 40km S of Donetsk) Explosion Outgoing Mortar

OMG, who knew?

Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1999-15054-002

Commonly known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 3 2022 4:32 utc | 216

Peter AU1 @ 154

You have radios with a range of 150 MHZ to 512 MHZ with 25KHZ separation it is nearly impossible to jam all those frequencies at one time. You can also choose frequencies up over 900MHZ for these types of communications.

There are too many communications options to have command lose control. Signal units are integral to the command structure.

Squads and dismounted infantry could be cut off. Using those cheap Baofeng radios could lead to numerous problems. The size and battery life is excellent but the protection against jamming and eavesdropping is poor.

If command is losing control like that them I would think things would be much worse. I am not working from actual knowledge of Russia communications structures. Things has to make some sense. If the Russians are that stupid they deserve to get their asses kicked.

As usual, we a groping about in a dark room with no electricity.

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 3 2022 4:36 utc | 217

@SeanAU just put my name + OSCE in the search bar for this site. We've been over it in depth (and you're out of yours).

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 4:41 utc | 218

Information warfare and paid trolls on blogs like this. There is a quote, I forget its exact wording but to win an air war, Russia puts its tanks on the enemies airstrips. What we are seeing is western hot air in the information sphere vs Russian firepower. I suspect that what is to come whill have not only the chemically couraged ukroids, but also the morally and ethically challenged pay per post trolls trying to hide in childish hide holes.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 4:48 utc | 219

The US Army has also had trouble conscripting recruits, falling below standards in quantity and quality. Here are some recent recruits.
Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 3 2022 1:48 utc | 187

Damn, those are some "exceptional" recruits! I wonder if the Army has to pay more for the extra chromosomes that they have?
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 3 2022 1:54 utc | 190

My heart goes out to them. I used to teach these guys decades back. The military was a step out of the quagmire of poverty and McJobs that awaited them. The academic component was a way to increase ones station in Life. Understand, that these people are not the enemy of humanity. They seek what most of us seek. We are all part of the same logos. It is prudent to temper ones words with kindness, or walk for a time in their moccasins.

Posted by: AParadiseLost | Oct 3 2022 5:03 utc | 220

A few years ago there was a study made of US Army general officers during WWII. Conclusion was the high command ( Marshall etc ) ruthlessly fired even semi-competent Generals.

If someone recalls the name or can link would be a help.

Thanks fellow barflies

Posted by: Exile | Oct 3 2022 5:17 utc | 221

Circumspect [220]

No idea who might be using Baofeng but they are known to be inherently unstable

Apparently Harris communications systems are often captured from Ukie forces which suggests they lacked field communications systems. As for Russian forces I should think they have encrypted systems to integrate artillery computers with observers and forward units

Since Russians withdrew in an orderly manner from Liman I suspect communications difficulties relate to human rather than electronic systems

Then again only a limited number of people know the true picture and there are simply not enough Americans involved to ensure Hollywood production values and instant victories

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 5:27 utc | 222

circumspect | Oct 3 2022 4:36 utc | 220

Only need to jam the frequency operating. High speed scanner finds the frequency and whack. Russian jammers are set up to jam frequency switching communications amongst other things. Coms change frequency jammer changes frequency.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 5:41 utc | 223

SeanAU | Oct 3 2022 5:42 utc | 227 "It could not be any clearer could it? NATO and EU officials have repeated this rhetoric often"

What do you mean by this? By your username I have assumed you are an Irishman in Australia. Skimming through that post, you seem to have a belief in the truthfulness of western utterances. I tend to look at actions to determine how truthful or otherwise a state or schoolyard bully gang is.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 6:02 utc | 224

I thought this kind of rhetoric was not permitted on this board.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Oct 2 2022 17:12 utc | 15

It's been popping up rather often in the past two weeks, including from posters who have a certain standing, such as aristodemos. I tried to point out to him that posting "((()))" crap is a familiar technique used to discredit sites that someone perceives as a threat.

Posted by: Gene Poole | Oct 3 2022 6:21 utc | 225

I've read you're posts Sean and trying to place you. I assume you're Aussie, you are not a troll and don't seem to be a hand wringer or good time girl. Total mistrust of authority, no matter where it is? I'm not sure about that either. You don't push any ideology. At the moment I am leaning towards simple mistrust of all authority.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 6:22 utc | 226


Lots of schizoids screaming about jews in the comments today, did the jews conspire to piss in your cheerios again?

Posted by: Domerts | Oct 2 2022 19:48 utc | 89

Lots of jews screaming in the comments today, did a goy somewhere in the world manage to give birth to an unvaccinated child?

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 3 2022 6:30 utc | 227

You just have to think about it for 10 minutes to realize there isn’t necessarily gonna be a “tactical” or “low-yield” nuclear strike in Ukraine. If and when Russia strikes, it could just as easily be a full-scale barrage across all of Ukraine to paralyze the military and government, so frontline forces can be mopped up.

I don’t believe Putin has ever mentioned tactical nuclear weapons. In for a penny, in for a pound, is the way these things go.

We’re getting nearer.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 6:31 utc | 228

To-SeanAU | Oct 3 2022 5:42 utc | 227 – and all the rest of you westies who obsess moan and complain about the little far off country villages swinging one way or 'nother

The major part of the war is taking place in the RoW – as President Putin has told you – the construction of a new world order

Here’s another example from Africa

Do not be so woke all of you – but rather wake up ! You too can do something in your own countries, and se relieve you of your moans (maybe there's even a pun in there) surely you have US Embassies? or are you so integrated into the Empire that none are needed

News from the Real World

After Mali – Burkina Faso ?

The Malians kicked out the French ‘security’ forces for ineptitude and for killing the wrong people, then welcomed the Russians : their neighbours in Burkina Faso look to do the same

The French Embassy and Cultural Centre have been attacked by protesters seeking to expel the French expeditionary force

The French long backed and still protect the ex President Blaise Compaoré, a ‘vendu’ who sold out his country to the EUUS - overthown by a mass popular rising, and later condemned for having organised the murder of Thomas Sankara, a national hero, a Marxist who initiated Cuban style reforms, and revered througout Africa

The French press point to RF manipulations of public opinion, who need no outside encouragement to throw them out, even if they do like to fly the RF flag

Posted by: Gerrard White | Oct 3 2022 6:38 utc | 229

Awefully quiet today - normally we have updates by this time of day.

Something is brewing, I can feel it in my bones

Posted by: Frenziedfrog | Oct 3 2022 6:55 utc | 230

If the UAF is able to eliminate or badly compromise the RF position on the Kherson bridgehead then that would be a serious reverse - far more damaging to Russian war aims than any of the ground lost around Kharkov. However earlier attacks in Kherson by the UAF were badly handled, penetrating an observation screen before running into fire traps and RF forces in prepared positions. The latest attacks, despite much PR, appear to have recaptured a few villages in the North - at an unknown cost. It is not yet a serious offensive, though if it becomes one and does make serious advances, then the capabilities of the RF need to be called into question. This is one piece of ground they need to hold.

In my view the advances around Kharkov and Lyman are explicable by numbers. What is inexplicable is that Russia should find itself outnumbered. Pro-western sources explain this as Ukrainian super men and better training etc. Personally I doubt that and the lack of numbers meant RF forces were forced to retreat. That will change in the near future, though the mud season will soon start and give both sides some opportunity to rest and re-fit.

However despite panic amongst pro-Russian bloggers, I don't necessarily see that from the Russian government. Time is on their side now. However the UAF is a large and experienced force and is not going to go away without a fight.

Posted by: marcjf | Oct 3 2022 6:59 utc | 231

@ZX #145

Have you ever seen Russia on a map? It's friggin huge

Have you ever heard about Mercator projection?

I assume Russia acquired and then maintained control over that breathtakingly large swathe of planet Earth using entirely peaceful and honest means though.

You should read history of Russia.

Posted by: Kamil | Oct 3 2022 6:59 utc | 232

re: 121, Radek Kowalczyk.

If you click this person’s personal link you’ll land at its Facebook page, where it’s posing in aviators at a concentration camp, what may be Auschwitz. It’s one of the many pieces of human refuse set for some big Russian surprises. I’m eager, but also patient.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 7:04 utc | 233

123, not 121, sorry.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 7:05 utc | 234

Erdogan


has some issues, but he is sharp as a tack, a real politician. I think Putin finds him useful from time to time, and he gets away with a lot because of that.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 3 2022 2:30 utc | 201


Erdogan is a turk politician.
But his military is a NATO's one.

Ready to drag Turkey into a war with Russia ( SU24 2015: https://www.voltairenet.org/article189723.html)
Ready to try even to kill him (2016 Turkish "coup d'état" attempt)


Matthew 7:13-14

13 “Enter by the narrow gate. For the gate is wide and the way is easy[a] that leads to destruction, and those who enter by it are many. 14 For the gate is narrow and the way is hard that leads to life, and those who find it are few.

Posted by: La Bastille | Oct 3 2022 7:09 utc | 235

Turkey-
Not many people (me included) realise that a treaty made in 1923 for a hundred years runs out next Year. At which date Turkey will no longer have the borders it has today. Odd thing are supposed to revert to a 1923 scenario. (British troops and odd enclaves in Istanbul etc.)

Probably the biggest will be the Greece/Cyprus questions, and "command" of gas pipelines, built or planned.
****

Ukraine attacks in Donbass.
The USUkies seem to be using a one-two strategy to oblige the Russians to send their forces in as a defensive measure. ie. So that forces so committed will not be able to be used in an offensive. (One-two. Kherson then Liman then Kherson again and again).

Some T80+ tank groups have been seen training in Crimea.

Waaaiiiit for it....
***

Todays news will possibly be a new "Lehman" moment, when Credit Suisse and Deutsch Bank go belly up. The FT did not even have a "world style" front page this morning. It would explain the panic in Asia to get money out of reserves into safer places (Are there any?).

Note that the Lehman and Bear Sterns collapse were organised by the Fed and the major Banks together at that time (According to some), where short selling and naked short selling combined to cause the collapse of the shares, over a two day period. Bear Sterns was the target, Lehman did not listen to "advice" and was caught out. With the demise of the BS ALL 6 major Bank came under J control as BS was the last major one in non J hands. (Could have been 5 major banks)

A Banking crisis in Europe is just what the "doctor" ordered next, for the destruction of the EU, and full control over it.
****

Zelensky signing the demand for accession to NATO must have been done in a studio. There was a clean empty street behind him. Nothing moved - not even the green curtain, and the two supporters were there to catch him if he fell down. How are you going to eliminate the "Ghost of Kiev Chicken" if you don't know where he is strutting?

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 7:17 utc | 236

What is inexplicable is that Russia should find itself outnumbered.
Posted by: marcjf | Oct 3 2022 6:59 utc | 237

Not only that, but they haven't attacked, or very very rarely, the transport routes, the train power grid, telecom relays and so on. I'm convinced their General Staff has a very large percentage of morons and ass kissers that will gladly kill thousands of their own soldiers and civilians to keep their jobs. They're all like the general from Crimea who kept missiles next to airplanes. after 8 months of idiots in action I'm starting to doubt Moskva was attacked, who knows what idiot as commander they had.

Also today one woman was killed in Belgorod region after a new attack in the middle of a village. If they can't protect their own borders, anyone thinking they can protect Donbass must be high or friend with the retarded generals.

Posted by: rk | Oct 3 2022 7:25 utc | 237

🇲🇩 Sandu is preparing military mobilization in Moldova

According to Gonzo, the curators have already pressured Sand to work out the issue of a large-scale military mobilization in Moldova - in order to open an additional front for Russia together with Romanian troops. The option of sending the mobilized Moldovans to fight in the interests of the Ukrainian state in Mykolaiv and other hot areas is not excluded.

https://t.me/loordofwar/49932

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 7:27 utc | 238

You just have to think about it for 10 minutes to realize there isn’t necessarily gonna be a “tactical” or “low-yield” nuclear strike in Ukraine. ....
...
Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 6:31 utc | 234

Agreed that the situation is highly charged, NATO-backed advances in Ukraine are at the very least politically significant (UA gloating, RF internal friction) and possibly militarily significant if RF can’t turn it around. Add in the outright NATO attack on Nord Stream (possibly its destruction) and NATO’s near-constant droning about nukes, what’s next?

Does RF take all of this in its stride, as it has with Moskva, prisoner torture videos, HIMARS political assassinations, or is Nord Stream a step too far. If RF decides that Nord Stream can’t go without a specific response and USS Kearsarge is still considered the most likely platform for the sabotage attack, that ship, plus whatever escorts, is currently heading out into the Atlantic.

https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/USS-Kearsarge-(LHD-3)/CURRENT-POSITION/1/368702000

RF has lots of options to attack and destroy Kearsarge, some nuclear. In open sea and with the appropriate choice of warhead, there would probably be very little fallout, certainly nothing like even a low yield detonation within Ukraine.

I think we should cast the net a little wider when considering what nuclear options might be on the table.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 7:27 utc | 239

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 7:27 utc | 245

According to the latest John Helmer article, the Russian officials are expecting US government to paralyze their own electric grid before the november election. They won't do anything, officially just waiting for an investigation. The MSM has hyped up that Russia will attack US infrastructure, in recent weeks.

http://johnhelmer.net/the-october-surprise-ask-not-what-the-kremlin-will-do-but-what-the-us-will-do-next/

We now have multiple false flags brewing, Zaporizhe shelling, dirty bomb somewhere in eastern Ukraine, and fake attacks on US electricity grids. Potential attacks on LNG tankers. Sooner or later one of these events will result in unintended consequences.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 7:33 utc | 240

Sooner or later one of these events will result in unintended consequences.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 7:33 utc | 246

I think nothing is going to happen. Russia lacks the will to fight back. So many people in Putin's environment lived like kings, traveling to European destinations... They cannot give up their dream: to be loved by the West.

Posted by: marko | Oct 3 2022 7:56 utc | 241

According to the latest John Helmer article, the Russian officials are expecting US government to paralyze their own electric grid before the november election. ...
...
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 7:33 utc | 246

Interesting, thank you, Perhaps USS Kearsarge is a lure, the right ship, in the right place, at the right time, a conspicuous pirouette of a helicopter and then it’s out to sea, where RF could easily reduce it to droplets.

I guess that allies are just suckers to the US, whereas allies matter to RF, so Kearsarge is probably safe, even if RF knows for a fact that it is the culprit.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 8:29 utc | 242

For the fact remains: NATO has not declared war on Russia, and nor have any of the nations I listed. Russia has not declared war on NATO, nor upon any of those nations of "the collective west" or the ones I listed.

SeanAU

US has not declared war on any nation since 1942 when it declared war on Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria

Britain has not declared war on any country since 1939

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 8:31 utc | 243

Note that the Lehman and Bear Sterns collapse were organised by the Fed and the major Banks together at that time (According to some), where short selling and naked short selling combined to cause the collapse of the shares, over a two day period. Bear Sterns was the target, Lehman did not listen to "advice" and was caught out. With the demise of the BS ALL 6 major Bank came under J control as BS was the last major one in non J hands. (Could have been 5 major banks)

Not clear you know your trading houses.
Bear was run by Al Greenberg and was punished by Goldman for its refusal to join bailout of LTCM. Lehmann went because its collateral was frozen by JP Morgan.

Lehmann went bust because Hank Paulson as Treasury Secretary and ex-Goldman was ignorant of English Bankruptcy Law. ALL trading for Lehmann on Derivatives ran over London but Lehman swept its UK cash balances to get ready for a Chapter 11 filing in NYC over the weekend. The idiots did not know on Monday morning when trading opened in London - Sunday night in fact for Asia - there was no liquidity inside Lehmann in London and the bank was forced to file bankruptcy in London which has no Chapter 11

Posted by: Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 8:41 utc | 244

Thanks to all who introduced (and reintroduced) me to some very fine paintings yesterday. I had turned Peasant Woman Lifting Potatoes into Peasent Women lifting . . .. Likely with an assist from the Women Eating Potatoes and the Gleaners. But it all leads to another thought about our HabekBaerbock-gifted futures. Ably assisted by every other party - who virtually all seem to have donned “green” clothes. It’s about the fertiliser shortage caused by the energy shortage and the ban on the Beleorussian stuff. How long before we see European laws mandating that we visit fields to deliver our nutrient pulses direct to the landscape? No doubt our betters will be able to outsource their contributions to night-soil collectors and deliverers.

Posted by: Guy L’Estrange | Oct 3 2022 8:43 utc | 245

186

The US Army has also had trouble conscripting recruits, falling below standards in quantity and quality. Here are some recent recruits.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 3 2022 1:48 utc | 187

That looks more like the short bus crowd dressing up for Halloween.

If that's a real pic of recruits, we really are screwed.

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Oct 3 2022 9:03 utc | 246

@ Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 8:41 utc | 250

Fascinating. Wasn’t aware of those details.

How have you accumulated so much knowledge on so many different subjects? Are you retired for more than a decade?

@ SeanAU

You contribute interesting POVs to the bar. But, about your emphatic blurb about who’s “not” at war, remember to “watch what they do, not what they say”. (Ergo, Paul’s reply to you.). We must apply that to everything.

Posted by: dfg | Oct 3 2022 9:08 utc | 247

russia is done. you can't win anything, let alone war, with such inferiority complex...less talk, more walk, but this message is lost in russia. russia still thinks like milosevic, truth will prevail and everything will be okay and west is going to love us again...you can't win mafia war with the truth...no one cares about it...might make respect. russia has two choices: takes the gloves off or kiss the mafia don ring...there are no third magical choice.

Posted by: denazi | Oct 3 2022 9:10 utc | 248

Various comments above

Orlov is wrong and dangerously wrong about Fukushima. The danger very much continues with the Ukrainian nuclear plants. Orlov does at least note the cesium 137 plume over the northern hemisphere that ensued from Fukushima. Then comes up with the whopper that this could only have come from a bomb. Neglecting that blown reactors and spent fuel pools are the biggest dirty bombs and just dwarf what would come from a weapon. An atomic weapon can be created with 3 kilos of fissionable. Reactors have tons. Throw in the pool and we are talking hundreds of tons. Five orders of magnitude greater than that weapon. If you have no comprehension of orders of magnitude sit down and shut up.

Everyone knows about Zaporhyze and some might even remember Chernobyl. What is Nazi West Ukraine has three more major nuclear installations. Youzhnoukrainsk might imaginably come under RF control together with Odessa. Rivne and Khmelnitsky are only secured if the entirety of Ukraine becomes Russian. Everyone wants RF to get busy and blow infrastructure. If grid power goes away those reactors become accidents waiting to happen. They have to be kept cool through inevitable shutdowns and that means grid power. In best of times reactors do get shut down from time to time. Generators are for very short term emergencies and do you really believe the diesel did not go into a T-64? RF has not destroyed grid power because they are perhaps thinking a couple steps ahead of armchair generals.

For that matter all of Europe's nuclear relies on Russian technical services and Russian personnel. Erect a new Iron Curtain and Euro nukes need to shut down. And grid power needs to stay up.

Reactors blowing from consequences of war/consequences of breakdown and chaos are more fraught with danger than nuclear war itself. We have 400 chances to get it wrong. That the population is universally oblivious almost guarantees SHTF.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 3 2022 9:17 utc | 249

Out of interest, has anyone seen any news reports that indicated what mode of transport Christine Lambrecht used for her impromptu visit to Odessa on Saturday?

In the spirit of Axis powers regularly announcing their intention to do something that they’ve already done, I’m wondering if Ms Lambrecht actually accompanied the shipment of IRIS-T air defense systems she announced would be shipped in the future, with her as willing human shield for an arms shipment!

Perhaps her known movements can rule thus out ... or perhaps not =)

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 9:17 utc | 250

Posted by: AParadiseLost | Oct 3 2022 5:03 utc | 223

A great comment, thank you.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 9:24 utc | 251

Paul Greenwood | Oct 3 2022 8:41 utc | 250

I'll buy the version for Lehman. Interesting. I was following Bear Sterns at the time with it's subsequent sale "?" to Barclays, as this was the narrative going around. ie the seizure of it's real assets by a grouping of the major US Banks and the Fed. Reducing their number by one. They had already reduced the Swiss section of financial investment houses (UBS).

Lehman got caught out - OK. I wondered how they got on the wrong side.

The "version" I heard was related by Matt Taibbi, and only covered part of the affair, and involved a bit of conspiracy theory ie. that the Fed and the other Banks all met without the BS a few days earlier. They ganged up on it.

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 9:42 utc | 252

European center for medium range weather forecasts (ECMWF) predicts relatively cold and low-wind winter, at least initial winter according to Financial Times.

If rest of thermal plants in Ukraine end up destroyed, and nuclear power plants offline, and EU keeps their grid connections with Ukraine it will finish off EU economy and the eurozone even faster over winter.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 10:06 utc | 253

Intel Republic is reporting that Ukrainian forces have entered Lugansk Republic. That said, Russia should be destroying Ukraine's infrastructure to prevent supplies from reaching the Ukro-nazis on the frontline, but for some reason Russia's leaders have decided not to attack Nazi infrastructure or perhaps Russia simply lacks the capability to destroy it.

Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 3 2022 10:13 utc | 254

From Bloomberg:

A corporate treasurer or finance minister looking to issue new notes now would likely have to pay interest that’s about 156 basis points higher on average than the coupons on existing securities, after that gap surged to a record in recent days. That all adds up to about $1.01 trillion in additional costs if all those securities were refinanced, according to calculations using a Bloomberg index tracking some $65 trillion of government and corporate debt across currencies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/a-1-trillion-burden-looms-for-world-borrowers-refinancing-debt

"We're still dancing" -- Charles "Chuck" Prince.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 10:20 utc | 255

Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 3 2022 10:13 utc | 260

Disabling those power plants will go a long way defeating EU's ability to wage economic war and also indirectly reduce its ability to provide any kind of support, be it training, fuel or supplies to Ukraine, imo.

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 10:27 utc | 256

russia is done. you can't win anything, let alone war, with such inferiority complex...less talk, more walk, but this message is lost in russia. russia still thinks like milosevic, truth will prevail and everything will be okay and west is going to love us again...you can't win mafia war with the truth...no one cares about it...might make respect. russia has two choices: takes the gloves off or kiss the mafia don ring...there are no third magical choice.

Posted by: denazi | Oct 3 2022 9:10 utc | 254

If you really care and are not a CONCERN TROLL, you might look at Scott Ritters OP-ED piece in RT yesterday: "NATO In the Horns of a Dilemma..."
The legal process to bring the four Oblasts into Russia is still in process, and the new Russian military arrangements are in flux. Most NATO countries want nothing to do with a direct attack against Russian territories (disputed or otherwise) and they told Zelensky to get fu*ked when he demanded that NATO let him in. So, while you can kiss the Mafia Don's ring, Putin, "by undertaking the referendums, has changed the game altogether. Stay tuned NATO lovers.


Posted by: Guernica | Oct 3 2022 10:30 utc | 257

#255 is in wrong thread. Whatever.

Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 3 2022 10:33 utc | 258

For some reason, people seem to believe the real world is being played like a video or computer game. If there is an attack, just get troops over there or bomb them to hell. Like everything is in place and being moved with a few mouse clicks. On a 1,000 km front line. Aye right.

The Ardennen counter attack in 1944 lasted for about a month, before the then-allies got their act together and the Germans ran out of fuel, equipment and people. Back then like now, it was a tactical error on the allied forces side, yet, as it is now, you can`t man a frontline that long constantly and everywhere. Yet, while the then-allies were routed along the way, the allies in Ukraine retreated to more defensible positions. In essence though, Ukraine troops regained land that was more or less a buffer zone or a few per cent of the previously liberated territories. And while this happened, the Ukrainian attackers suffer losses along the way, as can be verified from various sources.

There is no reason to believe that once the allies have repositioned themselves and those troops that have been assigned to the front after the mobilization have arrived, there will be anything but a reversal of recent events. It remains to be seen whether after Friday`s announcements, the face of war will change - due to the fact that Ukraine is about to - if they not already have - attack/-ed Russian territory.

As before Russia will do it as she sees fit. She might seem to stumble (not least if you believe the fiend analysis from the West), it might not always work, but in the end, as before, Russia will win the day.

NB: I am truly stunned with what sort of heinous stuff this yenwoda troll gets away with.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Oct 3 2022 10:37 utc | 259

I notice that the Kherson offensive (actually one out of three) that is nearest Zaporizhia, has run into the arms of mother nature. Rain stopped "play".

The USUkies did advance 20 kilometres, and were helped (at first) by rain stopping the Russian aircraft using full power.

BUT.
Now they are stuck on the roads as the fields are too muddy for heavy vehicles.
***

So the form of warfare has changed yet again.
To follow.

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 10:46 utc | 260


However, the type of most of the explosions was not determined and of the ones that were, most were *outgoing*, not incoming fire.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 2:39 utc | 204

Yes, yes. And mines exploding under the feet of Donbass children are in fact propulsive explosions that hurl projectiles straight into the barrels of Ukrainian artillery and mlrs. Poor innocent artillery and mlrs. (the jew cries as he strikes you)

Besides, based on who controls the media and "science", even if you shoot a person through the heart, as long as it's the correct attacker and correct victim, the causality will never be "determined" and will always "require more investigation" that will never be done. (pro hint: if you go and do that investigation, you'll get the next bullet).

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 3 2022 10:49 utc | 261

@266 CM of Berlin

Russia can’t even decide what some of the borders will be in these annexed territories let alone defend them, and Ukrainian forces are there anyway and currently advancing judging by Russian Telegram reports and even Russian State TV.

You’re right, this is isn’t a video game and Russian forces are outnumbered and outgunned in Ukraine, and Russia, right now, is not in a position either with manpower or equipment to do anything about it.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 3 2022 10:50 utc | 262

“RF has lots of options to attack and destroy Kearsarge, some nuclear. In open sea and with the appropriate choice of warhead, there would probably be very little fallout, certainly nothing like even a low yield detonation within Ukraine.”

Good analysis, thanks. I disagree with the gist here. Pinprick attacks won’t cut it. With nuclear weapons, the rule is go big home or go home. If you’re going to use them, you’d better accomplish the goal. To my mind, that’ll mean paralyzing Ukraine and destroying its state when it gets too close to total victory.

Putin’s warning couldn’t have been clearer. He cited the Truman precedent, something no one’s ever done.

It’s the most heated nuclear rhetoric in postwar history, and it’s only because people have forgotten the nuclear terror of the Cold War that it seems to go right over their heads, so to speak.

Many people doubted Putin would order Russian troops into Ukraine, but I didn’t, and the warnings were all there. Many people now doubt he’ll use nuclear weapons. I don’t, and I think the speech and the annexations telegraphed his intent so no one’s too taken aback when it happens.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 10:51 utc | 263

I’d feel even worse about Russia using nuclear weapons than I already do if Ukraine’s intelligence chief hadn’t said a few days ago that it’s “very likely” without seeming much troubled. An article in the Washington Examiner quoted “European diplomats” saying Ukraine will retaliate to a nuclear attack by invading Russia through the borders, and the New York Times quoted the usual anonymous officials saying the U.S.’s likely response will be to sever Russia from the world economy (how?) and send Ukraine more-powerful weapons.

Ukraine accepts the risk and is actually courting it. They’ve been warned. It’s on them.

It’s probably gonna happen.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 10:57 utc | 264

Balakleya, Izium, Krupyansk, Liman, Zolotoy-Balka, Dudchany: I smell rats...
No air support, no reinforcements ...
Is there a backroom deal?
Russia has 50,000 to 80,000 paras that could be here in hours and as needed called DNR militia.
WTF?

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Oct 3 2022 11:10 utc | 265

Ukraine’s mistake isn’t thinking that a nuclear attack is “very likely” but that “tactical nuclear weapons” along the frontlines are the likeliest outcome. To my mind, western Ukraine will be hit with hydrogen warheads to irradiate and paralyze the rear. I imagine these will be somewhat high altitude and targeted at command and control centers. I doubt bombs will be dropped too close to the frontlines, actually — you need gobs of specialized equipment to keep your own troops from slowly liquefying in the fallout.

Extremely low-yields will probably target the middle.

There are two enormous questions for Russian planners that stand out to me. 1) Target cities? It’s hard to imagine they do, but, from the planning standpoint, it reduces follow-on risks and ensures a conclusion. 2) What to do about the dozen+ nuclear reactors? I imagine they may have to be targeted themselves with extremely high-yield weapons or they’ll melt down without cooling power. Only a specialist would know the answer, and, if the answer is to target them, then you circle back, as Americans say, to question 1). Hitting cities starts to look like a must, and then you may as well go all in. This is the logic of nuclear terror, and this is why no matter how big the computers we invented were to try to make them bespoke and scalable, the models always ran away from us.

No doubt Putin knows this. Nevertheless, he has issued his warning, and Ukraine has accepted it — actually sees a launch as almost inevitable — and presses on.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 11:20 utc | 266

Re. Lyman, there were some reinforcements sent in the cauldron. Apparently they managed to cause a lot of losses to Ukraine forces trying to advance on those flanks of the cauldron. It did keep the cauldron borders open so that the Lyman garrison could withdraw.

There was another case today where Ukraine had bombed a civilian convoy (80 dead) leaving after the Lyman garrison to the east. They called this convoy Russian military convoy, although there is not a single piece of evidence of that.

Additionally, if it's true that the rear is getting build up with relatively strong reinforcements, then there's no problems giving up some land. Enemy attack gradually wears down over multiple (even light) layers of defense, then counter-attack with fresh forces inflicting more damage to tired enemy. That's how wars often work.

Part 1 👉 t.me/Slavyangrad/11701

Most concerningly for the Ukraine fans, they are ignoring a very important aspect of the final hours of the defense of Liman.

Yes, the AFU, with 6000+ troops, succeeded in placing the ~500 remaining defenders of Liman in an operational encirclement. But the few Russian regulars who came to the rescue did so with impressive ferocity. All combined arms elements were brought to bear.

For just enough time to effect the withdrawal of the Liman garrison, the Russians kicked ass and took names – massed artillery and close air support raging overhead. Then they skedaddled down the road to Kremennaya, content to continue on the defensive … for the time being.

For the time being because, as I noted near the end of my Friday morning blog post, massive Russian reinforcements have been flooding into Novorossiya for many weeks, and this buildup has risen in an urgent crescendo in just the past week.

The #SlavaUkraina crowd is convinced the Russians are an incompetent and beaten force. The numerous Russian doomers are convinced the Russian commanders are clueless, as they rabidly seek scapegoats and sacrificial lambs.

Neither camp appears to appreciate the hard reality that it is routinely necessary to sacrifice valiant fighters in service to a larger plan. Throughout military history, commanders have consigned good men to death now in order to preserve even more good men tomorrow.

The Russians are preparing “something big”. Whether it begins to manifest tomorrow, two weeks from now, or is even delayed until early 2023, something big is being prepared -- war not with battalion tactical groups, but with army corps. Big arrows on the map.

The Ukrainians have, mostly for reasons of political expediency, opted to roll the dice in a courageous but inevitably futile last-gasp counterattack before this Russian buildup is ready to launch.

It will come up snake eyes.

Ukraine cannot and will not win this war.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/11702

Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 11:26 utc | 267

'The work of Russian artillery on the advancing enemy armored vehicles in the Kherson direction was caught on video'

https://en.topwar.ru/202701-rabota-rossijskoj-artillerii-po-nastupajuschej-bronetehnike-protivnika-na-hersonskom-napravlenii-popala-na-video.html

It seems the Ukrainian initiative, though well and competently prepared and implemented, will not accomplish much.

Posted by: Nobody | Oct 3 2022 11:45 utc | 268


Russia can’t even decide what some of the borders will be in these annexed territories let alone defend them, and Ukrainian forces are there anyway and currently advancing judging by Russian Telegram reports and even Russian State TV.

You’re right, this is isn’t a video game and Russian forces are outnumbered and outgunned in Ukraine, and Russia, right now, is not in a position either with manpower or equipment to do anything about it.
Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 3 2022 10:50 utc | 270

They are outnumbered (and sure not out-gunned) on one stretch of the frontier. It is another aspect of propaganda that a victory or success in one spot is extrapolated to the rest of the conflict. Which is, obviously, rubbish. Best example is - actually - that Ardennen counter attack of 1944, or indeed the retreat from Kiev earlier this year. We knew what happened afterwards. Only time will tell what happens, but it would be reasonable enough to life in the here and now and leave the speculation for the media and propaganda gurus - and maybe have a look at previous events in this or other wars.

Posted by: CM of Berlin | Oct 3 2022 12:03 utc | 269

I mean you can't be supportive of the way Israel treats the Palestinians can you? Now where are the Jews working for Palestinian rights?

I'm just asking, not trying to take sides in this. I liked "Exodus" and "Mila 18"

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Oct 2 2022 19:53 utc | 92

Lookup Norman Finkelstein, he lost tenure in the process of telling the truth about Israel.

Posted by: RB | Oct 3 2022 12:03 utc | 270

@278 CM of Berlin

I’ve lost count of the number of times an Ukrainian offensive is linked immediately to the Ardenne offensive of 1944. It’s almost an automatic defensive reaction to reassure people that everything will turn out okay.

But I am happy to wait and see if my reading of the conflict situation in Ukraine is close to the reality or not. After all, what I say on here, or elsewhere, will not make a blind bit of difference either way.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 3 2022 12:25 utc | 271

It was curious that the MoA site became unavailable when it published Putins speech and the tweet was copied across various other sites.

Read or watch that speech in full if anyone hasn’t got round to it and believes it is now to far ago to be relevant.

Various other curiosities echo on MoA and other sites.

Such as when b or indeed Putin ponders why did Lenin inexplicably ‘gift’ certain regions to the Ukraine in 1922??
And why again in 1952 was The Crimea equally transitioned????

To a state that never existed ?

It smacks of some kind of ‘Contractual Obligation or Payment in Kind’ does it not?

If that is a acceptable possibility then who exactly could the contracting parties be and what exactly did they transact? And why is it a secret 🤫.

The answers I believe, as I continue to say, lay in the History of Money, the creation of the Westphalian Nation States their subjugation to Private National Banks and the ability to set them at war against each other making money from both sides and most of all from the the ‘enrolled’ population of different Peoples, to deprive the said populations of the wealth they create and hoist upon them the shackle chains ⛓ of endless Taxation and sacrifice to pay the National Debts to the various Private National Banks that mutually masturbate each other’s cash cows.

Any Peoples who refuse to join that game through the centuries have been invaded and destroyed. Leave by the ancient slave owning, running, stealing , robbing, murdering , demented financial instruments Unipolar World collapsing around our own ears - much as Samson brought down the palace.

The multipolar arrived not with a whimper or a big bang but mass wailing and gnashing of the Ancients Money, Private Banks, their secret contracts and Laws made by them for all others except themselves.

I look forward to the history books detailing these dynasties and their fortunes and how they were completely dismantled between 2020 and 2023 in their hubris. As that Ill gotten wealth was completely removed from their great and ancient enterprises and all their lineages changed their names and shunned ever being associated with such Monsters of Humanity.

Rock on Multipolarity and the end of slavery and exploitation of the many by the very very few dinosaurs.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 3 2022 12:26 utc | 272

Latest MOD report:
Missile attacks launched at manpower and military equipment concentration areas of 14th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Kupyansk, Dvurechnaya and Kurilovka (Kharkov region) at Kupyansk direction have resulted in the elimination of over 140 servicemen and 19 units of special military equipment.

◽️ Over the past 72 hours, the enemy has lost more than 500 servicemen and about 60 units of military equipment at Kupyansk direction.

💥 Massive fire attack has been launched at enemy reserve forces and units from 66th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU near Slavyansk at Krasny Liman direction.

◽️ The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 100 servicemen, 6 units of armoured equipment and 2 Grad MLRS combat vehicles.

◽️ Over the past 72 hours, the units from 66th and 93rd mechanised brigades of the AFU have lost more than 900 servicemen at the abovementioned direction.

💥 Missile attack launched at the manpower and military equipment concentration areas of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU near Kalinovka at Artyomovsk direction has resulted in the elimination of over 260 militants and 14 units of military equipment.

Allied forces have repelled enemy's attempts to launch an offensive near Pervomayskoye at Donetsk direction.

◽️ The preventive operation has resulted in the elimination of over 100 Ukrainian servicemen from 21st Battalion of 56th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU.

Russian troops continued repelling enemy's offensive at Nikolayev-Krivoy Rog direction.

◽️ All the attacks of the AFU at Nikolayev and Andreyevka tactical directions have been successfully repelled.

💥 Attack launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at the units from 24th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Davydov Brod (Kherson region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 60 militants and 7 units of military equipment.

Superior enemy tank units succeeded in wedging into the depth of our defence towards Zolotaya Balka and Aleksandrovka.

◽️ Russian forces took a previously prepared line of defence and continue launching massive fire attacks.

◽️ Ukrainian militants have lost a total of over 130 personnel and 23 units of military equipment at the abovementioned area.

💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 47 artillery units at their firing positions, as well as 146 manpower and military equipment concentration areas.

◽️ 5 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Kramatorsk, Artyomovsk, Opytnoye, Yampol (Donetsk People's Republic) and Dobryanka (Kherson region).

💥 Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed 1 radar of Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile system near Nikiforovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

◽️ 3 Ukrainian Grad MLRS rocket batteries have been neutralised near Tsvetkovoye, Svyatopetrovka and Yablokovo (Zaporozhye region).

💥 Air defence facilities have shot down 3 unmanned aerial vehicles near Valeryanovka (Donetsk People's Republic), Kupyansk (Kharkov region) and Borozenskoye (Kherson region).

◽️ Moreover, 15 projectiles launched by U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS have been destroyed in air near Novaya Kakhovka, Vesyoloye and Novaya Zburyevka (Kherson region).

The above indicates that Ukie forces lost > 2,000 KIA > 100 tanks during last 3 days. Lyman battle lasted 3 weeks.

This specifically means that Ukies are burning up their reserves in these battles.

Today I got info that the fall rains started. Ground in Kherson front now too soft for armoured operations. This permitted Allies decimation of Ukie attacking force, because it was constrained to paved roads of which there are few, and Allied air and artillery concentrated on these concentrated forces.

Also, there are reports the Ukies are pulling out of Bakhmut.. Likely Sieversk will follow..

INDY

Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 3 2022 12:28 utc | 273

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 10:51 utc | 271
Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 10:57 utc | 273

I take your point. The pieces put together like that, it does look a lot bigger and worse. Zaluzhny has also made worrying comments about nuclear weapons, no doubt following a western script.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 11:20 utc | 275

Re Ukrainian NPPs, see [oldhippie | Oct 3 2022 9:17 utc | 255], they need external power to cool them during shutdown, on-site generators likely won’t cover the whole shutdown so external grid power is needed to avert meltdown.

I don’t know about RF hitting cities, AFAIK their doctrine is to hit military force / infrastructure, plus the NPP risk if grids are hit. NATO bases / assets would be legitimate targets in this view.

This gets back to what seemed plausible from the outset: EU-limited nukes could be to US advantage: EU Japanification with a Russia-did-it chaser. European leaders have never demonstrated an awareness of this fact.

NATO bristling over mooted RF nuclear escalation could be (i) preparatory narrative in advance of their own false flags, (ii) messaging in advance their own conventional escalations that they know should trigger a nuclear response from RF, (iii) a general strategy of psychotic intimidation against NATO citizens, (iiii) a mixture of these, or something else!

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 3 2022 12:30 utc | 274

General strikes (the real deal, like the Wobblies tried) would bring the war machine to its knees. So would armed resistance to conscription. Although anarchist-communists in Russia are fighting and their actions are underpublicized, there is yet no organic connection between Russian workers as a class and any revolutionary organizations in the country. But war situations are volatile, as previous revolutions can demonstrate.

Posted by: fnord | Oct 2 2022 21:53 utc | 127

Is there any sign of any of this happening Stateside? That's where it needs to happen. I know, I know. It's football season...

Posted by: Gene Poole | Oct 3 2022 12:31 utc | 275

Posted by: Tedder | Oct 2 2022 18:04 utc | 42
There is no way that White Christians [mentioned by flaunting | Oct 2 2022 16:59 utc | 8] will turn on Israel?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Oct 2 2022 17:12 utc | 15
I thought this kind of rhetoric was not permitted on this board. <= Why should a discussion of any kind of power, including Jewish power, be Off limits .. massive Zionist and Jewish efforts are part of the history of the area since nearly the beginning of time. Such a discussion seems very
appropriate when discussing Russia or the Baltic areas ?

Is "Manufacturing denial" a social disease?
https://www.unz.com/article/igor-shafarevich-and-the-jews/
Reputation destruction, over those who express their ideas and reveal their findings.. suggest you have not read this Russian story

https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/embattled-in-war-russias-media-looks-for-someone-to-blame-and-finds-jews/
or this history of global intrigue stretching from Russia to the USA..
https://ia801500.us.archive.org/3/items/deanna-spingola-the-ruling-elite-the-zionist-seizure-of-world-power/Deanna_Spingola_The_Ruling_Elite_The_Zionist_Seizure_of_World_Power.pdf

Posted by: ron | Oct 3 2022 2:22 utc | 195 responds to the post of @Inkan1969 what's the problem with talking about jewish power??? even talking about unfounded jewish power???

<= When involvement by any power is questioned with reference to the SMO in Ukraine, it should be evaluated, don't you think?

Posted by: flaunting | Oct 3 2022 10:37 utc | 265
Because it can't be talked about in polite society, Jewish power is an elusive concept.

<=Jewish power is a globally connected, locally manned, network of submissive contributing persons some very wealthy, some very talented, some politically connected, some bankers, some lawyers, some poor as hell, but all of whom are subscribers to the central "Jews own the world" myth.
Like the Internet the Network Power comes not from a single node, but from the millions of interconnected local globally distributed parts; so the power the network delivers timely to the place of its immediate need or focus cannot be defeated, inhibited or rendered non functional at its place of focus or in One place, or by one event, or in one nation or in one continent because its function that produces its global power is derived from millions of connected refocusable local parts.
Its parts connect and disconnect at their local sources just like a web client connects/disconnects its connection to a server over the Internet.


Posted by: GoFast | Oct 2 2022 19:00 utc | 63
I am against the war but there don't seem to be any anti-war organizations anymore. <= its against the law imposed by those who own the nation state to be anti war.. anti war has been suppressed by the prison that contains all humanity
<=the nation state system.. there are no external checks and bounds on its authority or its use of its power to suppress ideas and objections or to impose narrative propaganda and political control.

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 7:17 utc | 242
A Banking crisis in Europe is just what the "doctor" ordered next, for the destruction of the EU, and full control over it.
<=Do you think Russia and China are going to become the bankers of the world after this war in Ukraine?

Posted by: snake | Oct 3 2022 12:35 utc | 276

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 3 2022 1:48 utc | 187

Re: the photo of new American “Army” recruits:

Get out the participation trophies.

Posted by: Zed | Oct 3 2022 12:36 utc | 277

There is no way tactical nukes are on the table right now. Not by Russia, and not in a false flag sense.. there are radioactive signatures for all countries' weapons and it would be possible to determine the source.

Russia has many devastating conventional escalations possible to it.. knock out TPPs and electrical substations, target communications infrastructure, target command centers in e.g. Kiev, bomb bridges, completely turn off gas through Ukraine, systematically targeting gasoline/diesel infrastructure.. the list is nearly endless. Russia demonstrated/warned it in practice partially with the brief 'de-energisation' a month or so earlier. At this stage, I too am wondering why some have not been done; I can buy the hearts and minds argument but patience with that strategy must be wearing thin.

Posted by: dask | Oct 3 2022 12:39 utc | 278

The Nord pipelines were full of gas/methane and not moving on either end, just sitting there with hydrate slurry (plugs) forming in the pipelines, for hydrate plugs to form they need: pressure, temperature and HO2,.....

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

Posted by: Hannibal | Oct 3 2022 14:10 utc | 279

I'm getting a bit anxious waiting for Russia to get out of low gear. I wonder if the delay is because Russia knows America will set off a false flag dirty bomb in Ukraine and blames it on Russia?

Posted by: Paul Melonas | Oct 3 2022 14:16 utc | 280

To my mind, western Ukraine will be hit with hydrogen warheads to irradiate and paralyze the rear.

Posted by: line islands | Oct 3 2022 11:20 utc | 275

Yeah, but you're just one more USA-brainwashed satanist. You don't even have a mind.

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 3 2022 14:17 utc | 281

"...the Outlaw US Empire no longer has any militarily valuable European allies as it essentially killed NATO when it blew up the gas pipelines, although it retains cannon fodder with the Baltics and Poland once Ukraine is used up."

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 2 2022 23:38 utc | 155

Thank you, karlof1, and all the regulars, spotted in between posts I don't consider useful here. I will say my own list isn't set in stone, but I notice that birds of a feather do flock together, so when I have time I have taken to noting authorship to speed through a defunct thread that obviously b feels needed replacing. Apologies to newbies; if you post something interesting, regulars will notice and call attention. When they have the time to do so.

Posted by: juliania | Oct 3 2022 14:59 utc | 282

@old hippie #255
"An atomic weapon can be created with 3 kilos of fissionable. Reactors have tons."

Problem with your argument is that it is necessary to achieve a fast implosion to get those three kilos of highly enriched plutonium to produce a multistep chain reaction. This doesnt happen at a meltdown and further the reactors dont use such highly enriched fuel.
However if a small nuclear weapon of maybe mush less than 1kt is made to detonate under a reactor it gets more 'interesting'. In that case the intense neutron and gamma flux going through the fuel from below would produce an intense heat within the core and it would probably blow apart as in something reminding of a nuclear explosion.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Oct 3 2022 15:06 utc | 283

This Yenwoda troll is such a creep. Would that all those trolls went to the Donbass and dared to repeat their disgusting propaganda, I guess even the oldest grandmothers would tear them to pieces...Minimizing and questioning the suffering of the population there while trying to sound honest and objective: well, how despicable can you be?

Posted by: anthony | Oct 3 2022 15:06 utc | 284

@Jellyfish #152, it's grimly funny to think that if Russia uses a battlefield nuke in Ukraine, half the people here will cheer and the other half will denounce it as a false flag

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 2 2022 23:09 utc | 153

You are both idiots. Russia will not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine unless NATO openly enters the war and endangers RF integrity.
False flag is rather unlikely since it would be easy to determine the source.

Posted by: RB | Oct 3 2022 16:15 utc | 285

Posted by: Peter Besscom | Oct 3 2022 0:14 utc | 158

I wonder if you have some thoughts about what the victorious Soviet Republic of Ukraine will do with the people in the recovered territories. Kill half and hope that the other half run away? Clearly Ukraine wants the territory but not the people. Then what? Settle the area with Germans? There was a plan like this in the past. Mixing German blood with Ukrainian Bandera blood will produce a superior race. Tell us about your vision of Bandera victory.

Posted by: RB | Oct 3 2022 16:34 utc | 286

@SeanAU just put my name + OSCE in the search bar for this site. We've been over it in depth (and you're out of yours).

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 4:41 utc | 221

Who is ‘we’? Royal we? I don’t remember anybody discussing anything with you on this topic. You say that even though most explosions happened on the ‘rebel’ side they were not incoming. The rebels shelled themselves. Yeah, right.

Posted by: RB | Oct 3 2022 18:08 utc | 287

why would having debt be bad? If money devalues fast it could be good. If you are unable to pay the debt it would be bad. I don't see which way it goes

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Oct 3 2022 19:16 utc | 288

The situation on Europe's Western front in 1939/40 was called the "phony war". Future scholars possibly will call the Russian campaign in Ukraine an even phonier one. IMHO, even if the Kremlin now eventually declares total war on Kyiv (in legal and physical terms) the milk is spilled.
Can anyone imagine the US would have allowed leaders like Milošević in 1999 or Hussein in 2003 to reguarly greet some fancy international guests like Chávez or Castro, while tanks and further goodies from Russian, North Korean, or other stockpiles roll in on a daily basis in support against the Empire? Would even some blinded guy like Stalin have continued to provide the Axis well into 1942 or 1943 with electricity and resources? Certainly not. But modern Russia deems it fit to let Zelenskiy and his flunkies have their daily discussion round, chit-chatting with Ursula "Shotgun Uschi" von der Leyen, other Western pothouse politicians, and B-Listers. Seven months into the war and Kyiv's still illuminated, stores well-filled, the show goes on and the internet as well.
To me, today's Russian army resembles some modern kind of Rome's imperial legions – let the people's militias and Wagner boys do the drudgery as did the Syrian archers, Gallic horsemen, and other auxilaries some 2000 years ago, but keep the legionaries out for as long as possible. The Kremlin wanted to fight the conflict localised and low-cost, as he did all the eight long years after Maidan. In fact, it never wanted to deal with Donbass at all, as Zhuchkovsky shows in "85 Days in Slavyansk". Yes, two interventions before February 24, Ilovaisk and Debaltseve, but each time swiftly back behind the border. Don't bother us too much with the people there. Let us talk. Make some deal. An insufficent strategy if you have to encounter another empire, especially the Empire of Lies. Now, it is to be seen if Putin and his fellas are truly able to adopt like some Caesar or Vespasian did, or if they completely turn into some Varus or Crassus, misapprehending the situation evolving right before their eyes.

Posted by: Seneschal | Oct 4 2022 1:58 utc | 289

The way the Russians have conducted operations in Ukraine is inexplicable. Why the hell Russia does not destroy western armor , heavy weaponry and munitions before it gets to the front lines? Armored vehicles and heavy weapons from the west , are openly rolling down the highways and railway lines , going cross country in large caravans , all the way to the front ! Seriously , WTF is going on here ? Keep this up and there will not be a Donbas or Luhansk militia-man left alive in a few months . Mobilization , recruiting and training , only now ? It's been seven months , what have they been doing ? What the hell were they thinking ? Ineptitude, at the top may end up costing Russia this war . Shoigu , for one , ought to be shit canned and replaced. No way Putin / the Russians should be in this boat .

Posted by: Buford T Justice | Oct 4 2022 4:10 utc | 290

theomimesis | Oct 2 2022 20:09 utc | 104

The RF is scattering the Ukr forces at Kherson like a strong wind scatters dry leaves...

Posted by: donten | Oct 4 2022 4:33 utc | 291

Breaking news from the Bakhmut and Seversk fronts: Ukrainian forces suddenly launched a massive counter-offensive along the entire eastern front.

Ukrainian attacks are reported all the way north from Spirne, Berestove, Bilohorivka to the Bakhmut front: Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Vesela Dolyna, Zaitseve, NE of Odradivka, Mykolaivka Druha and Kurdyumivka. This invalidates the previously reported dubious capture of Opytne by Russian forces.

For the time being, initial reports indicate that the Russian lines had held. Further confirmation as to whether the lines ACTUALLY hold can only be noted in the next morning's reports.
.
https://defensepoliticsasia.com/eastern-front-ukraine-launched-massive-counter-offensive-across-entire-bakhmut-siversk-fronts/

Posted by: Mo3 | Oct 4 2022 10:56 utc | 292

A few years ago there was a study made of US Army general officers during WWII. Conclusion was the high command ( Marshall etc ) ruthlessly fired even semi-competent Generals.

If someone recalls the name or can link would be a help.

Thanks fellow barflies

Posted by: Exile | Oct 3 2022 5:17 utc | 221

I don't know whether this is the study you refer to, but the book Marshall and His Generals seems likely to address the subject of interest.

Posted by: David Levin | Oct 4 2022 12:41 utc | 293

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