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October 1, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-162
Comments
psychohistorian @196
I’ve noticed that many of the “fresh” trolls appear more comfortable with short-form trolling, so doubtless their regular haunt is Twitter. For SOCOM to repurpose Twitter trolls for longer form trolling suggests that the Empire is having recruitment difficulties even for their troll armies.
That’s a good thing.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 20:16 utc | 201
Because they are encircled – how are you supposed to get out of a circle? The russians are as encircled as the Azov fighters were in the Azovstal plant. We all know how that went for the azov fighters…
Now the russians have came into the same trap. Amazing incompetence.
Yesterday Donbass leader warned that Ukraine have very effective offensive against Liman but still Russia did nothing as usual! Humilation is not enough to describe this f-up invasion.
The Ukies hoped that the MOD would take forces from it’s attacks elsewhere to stop them taking Lyman. That didn’t happen.
Instead the attack against Bakhmut continues, Siversk, Kraznoyorsk, Slavyansk, Kharkhov, Kiev’s garrisons have been put into the fray where they can be destroyed in the open.
What will the EU do this winter??? Without energies????
What if the Russians destroy the sub sea pipelines in the Gulf and North Sea???
Will the USA declare war???? Will the UK declare war???
Read my post, it’s the very first one….
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 1 2022 20:19 utc | 202
Looks like all the Ukraine trolls, apologists and fanbois are out in force. Just like after the Kharkov withdrawal.The sky was falling, the ends was near, Ukraine was going to take back the oblasts, blah blah blah….Then the Russians played their trump card- annexation of the 4 regions. This was not done in the spur of the moment nor in desperation as some suggest. Their was a lot of planning that went into the referendums.These areas will be part of Russia next week, no matter how much the west squawks. When that happens, Russia will be able send in their regular army. They will not wait for the 300k being mobilized to complete their training. Those mobilized reserves will be used to back-fill the army. The world changed last week, and for Ukraine, not for the better. Ukraine gambled the farm and lost. Those areas are never going back to Ukraine, just as Crimea isn’t. Zelensky says they will get them back as well as Crimea. He should stick to playing the piano with his.. Some people don’t understand- these areas are now part of Russia and Russia will do WHATEVER is needed to secure them. For Ukraine, the war is lost, they just won’t admit it. Instead they are running around begging for money and weapons as if it would make a difference… Tom UK should change his name to Tom Ukraine and Yenwoda should be UKRcodawoda. :>)
Posted by: ctiger | Oct 1 2022 20:25 utc | 203
@ psychohistorian | Oct 1 2022 19:56 utc | 196
@ William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 19:47 utc | 193
Well, they need something to do. Yes?
They can’t arrest Hunter Biden.
They can’t secure the border.
They can’t prosecute banksters.
They can’t prosecute Bill Gates or Fauci.
They can’t audit the electronic voting records that decide elections.
They can’t clean the water or air.
They can’t bring the jobs back.
They can’t stop the surging looting, carjackings, and murders.
They can’t stop the growing tent cities.
They can’t stop the devaluation of the euro or pound.
They can’t stop the WEF control over their country.
They can’t stop the forever war destroying the future for their children.
Complaining about other countries and governments helps them cope and maybe earn a paycheck.
Posted by: dfg | Oct 1 2022 20:26 utc | 204
This thread is hilarious. Western economy are on the verge of collapse Europe and England first and Russia just took back a large part of Ukraine and everyone here is bat shit crazy over some shithole small town in Ukraine that has no impact on the overall war.
Oh yeah, all Russians will have heat, food, money, and electricity this winter. England,EU, and Ukraine not so much
Posted by: Sid Farkus | Oct 1 2022 20:26 utc | 205
a country that got its ass stomped in Afghanistan will not defeat anyone. the US will escalate its ruthlessness. there’s nothing else they can do. My Nazi government will attempt to coerce as many senior citizens and disabled Forrest Gumps and immiserated youth into war by starving and freezing them to death, a gov’t that views Hurricane Ian as a business opportunity.
the ongoing escalation by NATO might rather be viewed as a sign of desperation and an effort to externalize the forces leading to inevitable social collapse. what does the West have to offer except gloating over its victims? little children fighting over bathroom access?
but don’t you worry. there will no end of the Oprah Winfreys proclaiming, “you get a nation. and you get a nation. and you get a nation,” to the clapping and yelping of retarded seal pups, who think nationalism defeats internationalism.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 1 2022 20:30 utc | 206
hmm is the troll shift over yet? never seen so many before.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 1 2022 20:32 utc | 207
@Posted by: Sid Farkus | Oct 1 2022 20:26 utc | 206
Next winter Russians will have jobs and a functioning economy plus heat, food and electricity, the financial destruction of Europe and the deindustrialization of Germany will be well under way by then.
Here in Canada I look on in amazement at the ability of the European elites to sacrifice their own economies and people. We are buttressed by our oil, gas, uranium and food surpluses as well as a whole bunch of useful minerals up north. We will get side-swiped by the European mess, and an ongoing real estate crash, but nowhere near what will be happening in Europe. I can see a new wave of European skilled-labour and energy-dependent industries emigrating to North America as well as a China which still has access to Russian cheap energy.
the funny thing about Putin is that all the horrors he details of the West were true 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, 20 years ago, 25 years ago, 30 years ago, etc.
maybe russians have realized the west aren’t reliable business partners and so now that they aren’t going to do business together, it’s suddenly “safe” to list crimes of the West, while seeking contracts and alliances with business partners of the West who went along w/all those crimes. like Saudi Arabia, Israel, etc., etc.
“put not your trust in princes” some Jew said once or twice. words of wisdom, words of wisdom.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 1 2022 20:40 utc | 209
It is not trolling to point out the depressing news that Russia continues to retreat rather than to advance. Why does Ukraine still have a functioning power grid?
Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 1 2022 20:40 utc | 210
morongobill | Oct 1 2022 14:30 utc | 60 – Thanks for the link to the Tom Luongo’s blog post. This (to me) clears up some confusion I had with what appeared to be a much too convenient, almost comic-book like psychopathic villian re: U.S. neocons and their apparent unwitting victim: Germany. Luongo points out regarding U.S. as the perpetrator,
“…The argument is based on this idea that the US is now a rogue state fully controlled by neocons who see their opportunity to get their geopolitcial two-fer, going to war with Russia while also regaining dominance over a vassal Europe…”
The ‘vassal Europe’ part has always been difficult to swallow (and I’m sure it pisses off Europeans to no end). Again, Luango on point:
“….To still think that Europe is a victim of US colonial ambitions betrays a naivete that borders on pathology.”
[embarassed] OK, I’m certainly guilty. So what’s really at play here? [bold from Luongo’s Twitter thread, italics are comments he added in his blog, bonus: my snarky comments.
3. Davos is obsessed with preserving the EU and transferring that power to the UN for global government through the end of commercial banking and total surveillance.
This is incontrovertibly true. Their pushing hard for CBDCs to replace the current monetary system.
4. Getting the neocons to over-react to the current state of play in Ukraine by blowing up two vital pipelines to Europe is child’s play. You are goading them to do what they want to do anyway.
Screw Germany and Russia simultaneously. [Ed: Bingo!]
Again, think Pit Bull and squealing bunny rabbit.
5. But the real win for them isn’t giving Germany no way to back down wrt Russia. It is to get Germany to see themselves as a victim of US colonialism. [Ed: They’re not??]
Cue the RAND report. And the protests over energy costs in Germany over the weekend.
This leads to a critical mass of people seeing the US as the world’s leading cancer, deflecting from the real perps. [Ed: Well, we must be at least in the world’s top 10 cancers!]
Given the state of the commentariat today, mission mostly accomplished. With the Fed pushing interest rates to the moon this will be even easier for people to believe.
Holy hell, he’s right. Keep in mind that Americans are by-and-large oblivious to this. They will honestly be shocked, confused and terribly upset in a couple of months to find that Germans (and Europeans in general) absolutely despise us for being their economic wrecking ball. US: “Huh? What did WE do? We’re the good guys here! Russia, Russia, RUSSIA!” And my lightbulb-above-the-head moment:
7. In the short run, the neocons think they’ve won a big victory. In the long run, it seals Europe’s fate by crashing their markets so they can blame Russia and the US for their bankruptcy while defaulting and consolidating power in Brussels. [Ed: Hell yeah… It’s all becoming clear to me now]
Blowing up NS1 and NS2 is a brilliant tactical move, it takes options from Putin and leaves him with more military than economic options. Why does anyone think the EU and Davos don’t benefit from this since this is what they actually wanted, prolonged war with Russia. [Ed: I never understood Europe’s desire for prolonging an unwinnable war. EU/Davos/WEF? Of course!] Or am I misreading EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell and NATO Sec. General Jens Stoltenberg? Curious.
In the long run this is a terrible strategic move because it now puts everyone’s infrastructure on the table. Everything is fair game now. [Ed: if the intent is to destroy/replace Europe’s economy and finances, why not?]
…
10. Europe’s only solution, said many times by Soros, is to default by issuing perpetual debt, consols, and rolling up all the political power in Europe to the EU Commission and the ECB.
To do that you NEED a collapse of the German middle class. [Ed: It worked in the U.S.]
With the ECB losing to the Fed over keeping rates low and going for MMT, 80% of the ECB’s balance sheet is at risk. The EU cannot function with a bankrupt ECB. The eurozone ceases to exist. President Lagarde is now losing control over internal bond spreads now that the BoE intervened.
11. But you also need a scapegoat to focus German anger on otherwise you lose them. So, bring in the hyper-aggressive Yanks and the hated Russians. Perfect patsies for this operation. [Ed: Agree (sigh…)]
Turn Western Europe as anti-American as Eastern Europe is anti-Russian.
The neocons have walked willingly into this trap. Russia was given the option surrender or fight. They chose to fight.
And the final connection that befuddled me until now:
21. This now opens up the possibility of the East Med Pipeline from Israel to Greece, which “Biden” took off the table earlier this year. Why? Davos wants us off oil and gas.
Meaning, why did “Biden” pull the funding plug off of East Med? Because Davos told him no new pipelines into Europe. Davos also hates Israel, being a US/UK satellite. Realize that once you see the enmity between the Continent of European Colonial Powers and the UK/US and the former Warsaw Pact countries, you can’t unsee it. But, please continue to think it’s all just “one big club… and we ain’t in it.”
I could never figure out Biden’s real motivation to yank East Med Pipeline funding. Luongo has convinced me of the all-powerful invisible Davos hand that whacked Biden on the side of his head. It would take that kind of power to prevent the US from just handing Israel $100’s of billion USD or so for their long dreamed-of pipeline to Europe. We’re usually generous like that when it comes to Israel.
Summary: “You will own nothing, eat bugs and be happy. Europe: You’re first. Blame America and Russia [cue evil laugh]”
Not going well for Russia on the ground at this time. Hopefully it is a case of 2 steps forward, 1 step back.
Posted by: Thim | Oct 1 2022 20:43 utc | 212
Not going well for Russia on the ground at this time. Hopefully it is a case of 2 steps forward, 1 step back.
Posted by: Thim | Oct 1 2022 20:43 utc | 213
Hope springs eternal. But so far the Russian government talks a lot about what it will do, while actually doing very little. Case in point, the constant talk about responding to attacks upon Russian soil. What actually happens when Ukraine bombs Russian territory? Nothing.
Posted by: theomimesis | Oct 1 2022 20:50 utc | 213
dfg @205
So… trolling paid for with tax dollars is kinda like public works, only we don’t get cool hiking trails, train stations, libraries, and post offices out of it? Something like a degenerate 21st century version of the WPA?
That is a nice positive way of looking at the trolling, I guess.
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 20:57 utc | 214
As an American I am neither surprised nor outraged that people assume the US had something to do with the pipelines.
It’s totally on-brand for this country. It is so utterly plausible I’m actually surprised that people are discounting the idea.
Even if the US had nothing to do with it, it doesn’t matter because people will believe it anyway and so this will cause optics/political issues for the US.
Though this might not cause any concern for the so-called elites as they probably think they are insulated from any serious consequences. Because what the little people think or do means nothing at all to them.
Posted by: Ocean Jasper | Oct 1 2022 20:58 utc | 215
Lyman a victory? Who really knows. What is clear both Ukie supporters and Vlad supporters believe what they want to believe. Fact is no one will win this war. A war is “ won” when one side surrenders unconditionally. Measured by stated objectives, it is unlikely the Ukies will expel the Russians. Vlad however, has only to demilitarize the Ukies and find a way to keep them from joining NATO.
As neither side will ever surrender unconditionally, no one will actually win. When this conflict comes an end, both sides will however declare some sort of victory, however, it is clear this Conflict will morph into a Ukie War I, then a Ukie war II, maybe III?
Vlad is much, much closer to realizing his stated objectives than the Ukies. Vlad will keep the ethnic Russian provinces at all costs, and the Ukies will just have to accept it. Until unconditional surrender occurs by either party, which will not happen, the world will have to live with another eternal hot spot, much like the ME.
Posted by: Greybeard | Oct 1 2022 21:08 utc | 216
There is a new book available by Benjamin Abelow “How the West brought War to Ukraine”, very reasonable 0,99€ for 75 pages as Kindle ebook and pretty much up-to-date (well, the missing pipelines are missing). As far as I can see an appropriate roundup with all the necessary footnotes (helpful for discussions with all our MSM-stamped colleagues and neighbours.
Posted by: Udkanten | Oct 1 2022 21:12 utc | 217
It must be a slow day in hell.
Our troll army and the cohorts of the delusional appear to be out in full force today.
Last week I had to respond to a delusional friend who can be relied upon to spam me with the OMM talking points, and our trolls here being really slow (in more senses than one). So I have seen most of the nonsense being dumped here before. My answer to him might be useful to somebody.
“…Reality is that a tiny allied force of perhaps 200,000 (personnel from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Chechnya and Russia) with only the Russians being particularly well equipped, has inflicted acknowledged losses of over 100,000 on a NATO equivalent force of between 500 and 600 thousand, wiped out the military stockpiles not only of the Ukraine, but of NATO, and has captured and is holding about a third of Ukraine.
By adding Russian troops relieved from other posts by the mobilization, along with current equipment, Russia will be better positioned to limit Ukrainian incursions into already demilitarized areas and perform their important denazification and demilitarization missions without the concern of leaving previously liberated areas undefended against reincursion.
Liman had a population of 25,000. Smaller than many villages in the USA. Thanks to flight and evacuation it now has a population of around a tenth of that. While important to the Ukrainians because it’s small garrison suggested that it could be overrun, I have no idea why you should imagine it is important to the allies. While undoubtedly grateful for their effort’s disproportionate impact on the Ukrainian forces, the Russians have almost certainly ordered the garrison to withdraw (and perhaps evacuate remaining civilians who want to leave) if threatened with being overrun, after which any surviving Ukrainians can occupy the ruins – and Kiev can claim an enormous victory. It certainly not the first time, and probably will not be the last…”
PS The ascension of the liberated regions of Ukraine will only occur with ratification by the Duma, so it will only be after that, of the Ukraine has not already surrendered or at least withdrawn, that Russia will deploy additional resources to the Ukraine. Until then it is likely that the Allies will simply continue to assist the Ukrainians in demilitarizing themselves through attrition by artillery.
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 1 2022 21:12 utc | 218
MoA has been unavailable to me on the West Coast US for the past 6+ hours….other barflys experience?
When does the false flag nuke event happen that Reuters is advertising?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 0:41 utc | 219
Posted by: Sid Farkus | Oct 1 2022 20:26 utc | 206
“everyone here is bat shit crazy over some shithole small town in Ukraine that has no impact on the overall war”
Since the annexation isn’t that town part of Russia itself?
“Oh yeah, all Russians will have heat, food, money, and electricity this winter. England,EU, and Ukraine not so much”
You don’t think the EU, UK, US et al anticipated the energy crisis that would occur from their actions?
Posted by: evilsooty999 | Oct 2 2022 0:42 utc | 220
MoA has been unavailable to me on the West Coast US for the past 6+ hours….other barflys experience?
When does the false flag nuke event happen that Reuters is advertising?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 0:42 utc | 221
MoA has been unavailable to me on the West Coast US for the past 6+ hours….other barflys experience?
When does the false flag nuke event happen that Reuters is advertising?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 0:42 utc | 222
Sorry for the duplicate but it said the posting failed and then became unavailable again
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 1:11 utc | 223
@psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 0:42 utc | 223,
MoA was unavailable for me for some time but I am not sure how long it lasts though.
Posted by: LuRenJia | Oct 2 2022 1:12 utc | 224
MoA was down for me as well, and looking at the sites that check if a site is down confirmed that it wasn’t just me.
Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 2 2022 1:14 utc | 225
I wonder if when the Russian leadership gamed this SMO, did they anticipate the US
launching an all out economic attack against Germany and the EU, or were they as surprised as most here?
Posted by: morongobill | Oct 2 2022 1:15 utc | 226
Posted by: Unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:53 utc | 170
Thanks for your insights.
What I notice here is that regardless of what happened here Russia gains more than it loses.
Personally I don’t think they did it. This just hastens their shift to the global south.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 2 2022 1:20 utc | 227
I’m having problems with the site.
Saw both comments and aoprove.
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 2 2022 1:23 utc | 228
Udkanten @ 218
Abelow clearly and concisely presents his arguments and evidence. I bought the hardcopy of the book after hearing him on the Useful Idiots podcast. I like how he stresses the role of broken treaties and US missile ‘defense’ as part of the escalation and provocation of the US and NATO.
Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 2 2022 1:24 utc | 229
Udkanten @ 218
Abelow clearly and concisely presents his arguments and evidence. I bought the hardcopy of the book after hearing him on the Useful Idiots podcast. I like how he stresses the role of broken treaties and US missile ‘defense’ as part of the escalation and provocation of the US and NATO.
Posted by: Objective Observer | Oct 2 2022 1:24 utc | 230
fwiw I cycled through europe africa, asia vpn’s and none of them could gain access to MoA until a little while ago. I guess judging by the usual cloudflare bullshit, that some ‘west’ security service launched another dos attack. I trust that posters will show some regard for the fact that it is currently the wee hours in Germany & respect b’s dedication to the blog.
As for Liman/Lyman the proverbial blind freddy can see that the Russian army is making some important strategic errors – possibly borne outta a shortage of boots to cover everywhere, but since freddy can also see that use of the full spectrum of nato’s ‘spy in the sky’ rig would inevitably come into play, meaning that gaps in defence can be rapidly identified and attacked by the ukies plus mercs, really this is entirely the fault of Russia’s military chiefs.
If the Russian government are fair dinkum about this they need to at least double their troop numbers along the line of conflict immediately, otherwise Liman/Lyman will repeat & repeat. Wake teh fuck up Moscow! The sooner they do that the quicker these incursions cease & the less humans will be butchered by steel meeting flesh.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 2 2022 1:30 utc | 231
fwiw I cycled through europe africa, asia vpn’s and none of them could gain access to MoA until a little while ago. I guess judging by the usual cloudflare bullshit, that some ‘west’ security service launched another dos attack. I trust that posters will show some regard for the fact that it is currently the wee hours in Germany & respect b’s dedication to the blog.
As for Liman/Lyman the proverbial blind freddy can see that the Russian army is making some important strategic errors – possibly borne outta a shortage of boots to cover everywhere, but since freddy can also see that use of the full spectrum of nato’s ‘spy in the sky’ rig would inevitably come into play, meaning that gaps in defence can be rapidly identified and attacked by the ukies plus mercs, really this is entirely the fault of Russia’s military chiefs.
If the Russian government are fair dinkum about this they need to at least double their troop numbers along the line of conflict immediately, otherwise Liman/Lyman will repeat & repeat. Wake teh fuck up Moscow! The sooner they do that the quicker these incursions cease & the less humans will be butchered by steel meeting flesh.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 2 2022 1:31 utc | 232
By aristodemos
Some poster who goes by the monicker S. who passes himself off as a disgruntled Russian appears by way of his using a very American and typically Jewish New Yorker bit of slang, to be nothing other than a true intel agency troll. Initially, over a number of postings, he appeared to be that which he pretends. Like Zelensky, he is evidently a well-trained actor.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 2 2022 1:34 utc | 233
By aristodemos
Some poster who goes by the monicker S. who passes himself off as a disgruntled Russian appears by way of his using a very American and typically Jewish New Yorker bit of slang, to be nothing other than a true intel agency troll. Initially, over a number of postings, he appeared to be that which he pretends. Like Zelensky, he is evidently a well-trained actor.
Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 2 2022 1:36 utc | 234
Getting lots of “Error 503 Service Unavailable” for this site today.
Posted by: farm ecologist | Oct 2 2022 1:40 utc | 235
PavewaylV@212:
Thank you for your analysis of Luongo’s article. I think this was one of your best.
All the best sir.
Posted by: morongobill | Oct 2 2022 2:06 utc | 236
The wheels are coming off this “Special Operation” big time. Problem isn’t Russian military per se, but the evident incompetence of Putin, who may well be some sort of CIA plant designed to do more damage, than good, to Russia. Alas, it’s becoming more and more evident by the day that he’s hardly more competent than Saddam Hussein, if apparently less blood thirsty. Therefore I cannot bring myself to trust in the success of the Russian “Special Operation” in Ukraine any longer.
Posted by: Severus | Oct 2 2022 7:27 utc | 237
The wheels are coming off this “Special Operation” big time. Problem isn’t Russian military per se, but the evident incompetence of Putin, who may well be some sort of CIA plant designed to do more damage, than good, to Russia. Alas, it’s becoming more and more evident by the day that he’s hardly more competent than Saddam Hussein, if apparently less blood thirsty. Therefore I cannot bring myself to trust in the success of the Russian “Special Operation” in Ukraine any longer.
Posted by: Severus | Oct 2 2022 7:27 utc | 238
The wheels are coming off this “Special Operation” big time. Problem isn’t Russian military per se, but the evident incompetence of Putin, who may well be some sort of CIA plant designed to do more damage, than good, to Russia. Alas, it’s becoming more and more evident by the day that he’s hardly more competent than Saddam Hussein, if apparently less blood thirsty. Therefore I cannot bring myself to trust in the success of the Russian “Special Operation” in Ukraine any longer.
Posted by: Nicodemus | Oct 2 2022 7:29 utc | 239
The wheels are coming off this “Special Operation” big time. Problem isn’t Russian military per se, but the evident incompetence of Putin, who may well be some sort of CIA plant designed to do more damage, than good, to Russia. Alas, it’s becoming more and more evident by the day that he’s hardly more competent than Saddam Hussein, if apparently less blood thirsty. Therefore I cannot bring myself to trust in the success of the Russian “Special Operation” in Ukraine any longer.
Posted by: Nicodemus | Oct 2 2022 7:30 utc | 240
“Ukrainian troops shelled the DPR 66 times over the past 24 hours, as a result of which seven civilians were killed and nine more people were injured. Schools and social infrastructure were destroyed, and residential buildings were damaged in the Kherson Region”
And for context: the President signs the documents in 24h since referendum. At the same time the General Staff retreats troops, doesn’t send any reinforcements anywhere and the Council delays the vote for a week.
Posted by: rk | Oct 2 2022 7:43 utc | 241
rk
On top of that Ukraine attacaked Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Liman, Zaporozhye yesterday/today and as usual, Russia did not respond and have hardly advanced anywhere past 3 months!
Sure Russia is fighting Nato armed ukrainians but this is just pathetic and dangerous. I do not understand what the problem is and I dont understand how Russia would be able to protect 4 new regions when they cannot even defend Crimea properly or even cities in Russia that have been struck throughout the war!
In the end it might be Ukraine that take the war to Russia.
Posted by: Zanon | Oct 2 2022 7:54 utc | 242
There was no definitive encirclement of Lyman. According to estimates, 500 militias held off 6000-9000 UAF troops for several weeks. Russians had sent some reinforcements west of Torskoe, north, norteast of Lyman and east. They decided to abandon Lyman and managed to withdrew from the whole cauldron to Torskoe. UAF took once again heavy losses trying to encircle it which they could not eventually manage. They used human wave tactics and got mowed down. Now the situation/front has/will be reset back to the area of Torskoe-Kreminna. The war depends on force ratios, destroying equipment and manpower.
Admittedly the optics look bad in context of referendums and “losing territory”, but eventually, optics or territory don’t determine wars. Territory can be afforded to be given, but imo it should be considered to evacuate population much further away from potential battlefields.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 2 2022 8:03 utc | 243
At last the site is back. Some subsidiary pages eg the ‘links’ page could be accessed but the main page was down. I hope ‘b’ cleans up the posts as many sèem to be duplicated. When on target, you always get a lot of flak.
Posted by: Kaiama | Oct 2 2022 8:05 utc | 244
@ William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 20:57 utc | 215
Ha! My post was more to shame these ideological or financial slaves posting here to think about the pathetic system they’re working to sustain. To remind them that everything around them is falling apart while they fight to continue these forever wars for a few pieces of copper.
I understand the need to eat and most decent job opportunities are working for the imperial project, one way or another. If any of these sorry serfs really are paid, I hope they nevertheless learn another trade so that one day they can help family, friends, and neighbors in some meaningful way.
Posted by: dfg | Oct 2 2022 8:05 utc | 245
Kaiama | Oct 2 2022 8:05 utc | 244
So I wasn’t the only one experiencing this. Everything alright B?
Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Oct 2 2022 8:19 utc | 246
I was unable to connect to MoA via my French provider for about two hours earlier this morning.
Posted by: Gene Poole | Oct 2 2022 8:25 utc | 247
Interesting perspective from Larry Johnson
Let me note some concerns regarding the military operations of Ukraine and Russia. First, Ukraine’s assault on the Russian position in Liman was carried out without any significant close air support. Ditto for Russia–i.e., no apparent close air support to fend off the attacking Ukrainians. Ukraine has an excuse–it no longer has a functioning air force. Russia does not. It has a surfeit of available air frames that could carry out that mission. Why are they holding back?
The second issue is the quality of battlefield intelligence and Russia’s ability to act on it. Let me present the options for your consideration and discussion:
Option 1–Russian intelligence knew the size of the Ukrainian force attacking Liman and the Russian Commanding General ignored the intelligence and did not call for sufficient reinforcements.
Option 2–Russian intelligence knew the size of the Ukrainian force attacking Liman and the Russian Commanding General believed he could hold them off.
Option 3–Russian intelligence DID NOT know the size of the Ukrainian force and the defenders were caught by surprise and unable to reinforce until it was too late.
Option 4–Russian intelligence knew the size of the Ukrainian force attacking Liman but Russia did not have the ability to resupply and reinforce the defenders.
Option 5–The Russians know Ukraine’s intention and allowed Liman to fall–effecting a tactical withdrawl–in preparation for a counter strike that will destroy the Ukrainian force who believes they have the Russians on the run.
If Russia was experiencing this kind of setback across the 1000 kilometer front then alarm bells should be clanging in Moscow. But that is not the case. This is one small geographic area and the Russians inflicted massive casualties on the Ukrainian attackers. Events during the next week will inform us whether this is an aberration for Russia’s Ukraine plan.
https://sonar21.com/if-pr-counted-then-russia-and-putin-are-toast/
Posted by: Down South | Oct 2 2022 8:32 utc | 248
Given the overwhelming superiority of Western intelligence assets and its readiness to prosecute this conflict one has to wonder what it knows about Russian capabilities that is not known to the public.
Seems like early Western reporting was much more accurate than otherwise credited.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Oct 2 2022 8:36 utc | 249
Given the overwhelming superiority of Western intelligence assets and its readiness to prosecute this conflict one has to wonder what it knows about Russian capabilities that is not known to the public.
Seems like early Western reporting was much more accurate than otherwise credited.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Posted by: Johnycomelately | Oct 2 2022 8:37 utc | 250
Industrial warfare is a contest of military resources.
Decisive ‘wonder weapons’ are rare, usually the outcome is decided by a combination of which side can field the most resources, use them most efficiently and has the political will to apply them effectively.
In that sense the loss of Liman is insignificant, much more important are 1) the mobilization of 300.000 additional troops and 2) the annexation of Donbass territories – which commits the Russian government to defend them with all available means, including further mobilization an potentially even nuclear weapons.
Honestly, I don’t believe any of the MoD numbers regarding enemy losses. History shows armies are notoriously bad at headcounts, even if they try to be truthful.
And the story how 500 Russians held off 6000-9000 Ukrainians for several weeks is pure military incompetence – what about the 50.000 troops participating in the Far East exercises a few weeks ago?
Observations indicate the currently allocated Russian resources in Ukraine are stretched too much to accomplish their objectives. In other words, mobilization is late.
But not too late, Ukraine won’t be able to force a decision before Russian reinforcements come pouring in. I suspect both additional regular troops and mobilized reserves.
And if military commanders are being replaced, that’s a good thing. It will improve the overall competence level of the command.
Posted by: Taiphon | Oct 2 2022 8:59 utc | 251
Telegram channel Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny on Kadyrov’s accusations against Lapin (October 1, 2022):
‼️🇷🇺 Statement by the fighters of the “O” group: regarding Ramzan Kadyrov accusing the commander of the Central Military District Aleksandr Lapin of the retreat from Liman, in the interest of justice, it is necessary to refute untruths:
All the conclusions of the emotional text of the head of Chechnya are based on incorrect information: General Lapin DID NOT COMMAND THE DEFENSE OF LIMAN and did not SIT OUT IN THE REAR.
▪️It is extremely wrong to blame the retreat from the Kharkov direction on the general who did not lead the defense of that sector, but was thrown at it WITH A SMALL PART OF HIS TROOPS as reinforcements in the last attempt to correct the most difficult situation at the front.
▪️Aleksandr Lapin never sat in the rear. This can be confirmed by everyone who has ever encountered him. Be it Syria, be it the Ukraine, where almost every fighter of the “O” group knows this. This is probably the only group commander who has been in the battle formations of his troops since the beginning of the operation. Therefore, the statement that Lapin was holed up in Lugansk is not true.
▪️Of course, it is necessary to look for the guilty, but blaming everything on the commander whose area of responsibility was a completely different sector of the front is a gross mistake, from which in the end it will not be possible to draw the right conclusions.
Fighters of the “Otvazhnye” group
Posted by: S | Oct 2 2022 16:48 utc | 252
Russian Telegram channel Svideteli Bayraktara on Kadyrov’s accusations against Lapin (October 1, 2022):
About Lapin
I know comrade General from Syria. In 2017, his people arrested me in the desert, I spent 4 hours in the caring hands of guys from the Central Military District.
We have been working with Otvazhnye [“O” group — S] since June. We lived on the front line and saw everything with our own eyes. Lisichansk fell thanks to the efforts of the Central Military District. Initially, it was planned to storm Lisichansk directly, like Severodonetsk. General Lapin insisted on a systematic encirclement.
After the loss of Volcheyarovka, the Ukrainians began to withdraw their forces from Lisichansk. Then the men from the REAR! district closed the encirclement in the Belogorovka area and for another 2 days kept finishing off the AFU soldiers who were leaving to join their own. Thanks to this maneuver, street fighting in Lisichansk was avoided.
There may be claims against Lapin, but he certainly cannot be reproached for cowardice. Aleksandr Pavlovich always led the troops, in the immediate vicinity of the line of contact. He arrived in Belogorovka by a car with a driver and a security guard! That’s all! At the same time, he drove past a flaming MTLB, which was blown up by Ukrainian saboteurs. A day later, our headquarters were dismantled by a Ukrainian tank.
When the enemy began to cross the Oskol in small groups, General Lapin led a special forces detachment to catch the sabotage groups. So the problem is not in the cowardice and incompetence of an individual general. The problem is in communication and control systems. And I’m afraid even Lapin’s strength was not enough here, even though he tried to rectify the situation.
Aleksandr Kharchenko
Addendum (October 1, 2022):
Following up on the previous post. Lapin asked to start mobilization in JUNE! Even then there weren’t enough people. Some battalions had 30 people left, but those guys kept advancing and winning contrary to military science.
In any case, public spats during a war is disastrous stuff. We need to concentrate. There are many trials ahead, and it will be a shame if Lapin is made a scapegoat for the miscalculations of a wide circle of officials.
Aleksandr Kharchenko
Posted by: S | Oct 2 2022 17:11 utc | 253
Re. Luongo
morongobill | Oct 1 2022 14:30 utc | 60
Posted by: PavwayIV | Oct 1 2022 20:41 utc | 212
There is at least one hole in Luongo’s analysis. In point 14, he suggests that “By the end of the decade Europe wants to be free of Russian energy, transitioned to a hydrogen/nuclear economy with digital money…”
Why on earth would the Germans contribute to the building of the massive pipeline if they were planning to transition off Russian energy asap? The americans repeatedly badgered and discouraged them from building/using NS2, but I am not aware of any such protests from the EU.
For Luongo’s argument to be feasible, must one accept that the EU idly sat by and waited for the pipeline to be built just so that it could be destroyed? And what about all of the attendant environmental damage? How does that square with the goal of transitioning to a cleaner hydrogen/nuclear economy?
I find it hard to believe that the EU/EWF could have planned this episode that far ahead, and still think it was the yanks just throwing their weight around. Here is a link to a video that I posted earlier in the thread that posted earlier in the thread that considers such an outlook: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4XbaVSx4Fw
Posted by: farm ecologist | Oct 2 2022 18:00 utc | 254
@67 aristodemos
No one is getting paid, mate. It’s called having a different opinion.
The situation on the ground is what it is. Telling it as such isn’t gloating. Pretending up is down, or black is white is just being dishonest. Russian forces abandoned Lyman. How many remain trapped is unknown. How well the retreat from Lyman went is unknown. What you take from all this is up to you.
Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 14:57 utc | 74
Exactly right. There are a lot of folks here who would prefer an echo chamber.
Posted by: Muthaucker | Oct 2 2022 19:56 utc | 256
@morongobill | Oct 2 2022 1:15 utc | 227
>>I wonder if when the Russian leadership gamed this SMO, did they anticipate the US
>>launching an all out economic attack against Germany and the EU, or were they as surprised as most here?
Clearly, the Kremlin is still coming to terms with the events of the past month, so I think we can safely dismiss the notion that they have foreseen it all, like some Emperor Palpatine. If Mr. Martyanov tries to convince us otherwise, well, that’s just his spiel. All of which would just mean that they are human, as long as they can react adequately to the events unfolding around them. With the partial mobilization, in all fairness I think that glass is half full. But in this Izyum-Lyman section of the front, they seem to have problems with their command, in a way that’s been allowed to fester for a full month already.
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@rk | Oct 2 2022 7:43 utc | 241
>>doesn’t send any reinforcements anywhere
Bizarre, right? After the fall of Balacleya, I’d assumed that the Russian command had been caught sleeping. But now we’re four weeks further, and instead of sleep we seem to be dealing with a coma.
>>and the Council delays the vote for a week.
I honestly think they’re unsure what to do. Putin is no Warrior King (mind you, that’s largely a good thing for Russia). Clearly, he wanted to fight a little as possible with a minimal intervention force, to then make some deal with Europe after those ingrates had felt the effect of their own sanctions. As far as the Kremlin is concerned, time is always on Russia’s side. Others need to remind them that they’re not the only ones making plans, nor are their own plans necessarily the smartest. Now it looks as if Russia will have to fight for real; not all of its elites may be prepared for that.
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Oct 2 2022 21:02 utc | 257
farm ecologist | Oct 2 2022 18:00 utc | 255
“Why on earth would the Germans contribute to the building of the massive pipeline if they were planning to transition off Russian energy asap?”
Do you mean the German people contribution directly or global for-profit corporations contributing 15 billion euros?
You have Gazprom – a Russian multinational, Royal Dutch Shell – a British multinational, OMV – an Austrian multinational, Engie – a French multinational and finally E.ON – a German-based Electric utility. For financing, now-bankrupt German Uniper (E.ON fossil fuel spinoff) and BASF subsidiary Wintershall (German multinational) joined in. These corporations did not buy the ‘transition off of Russian energy ASAP’ narrative because they knew it was 1) impractical (no alternatives), 2) unprofitable and 3) impossible to implement in the short-term (years). They were willing to gamble that the European energy markets – not the US/NATO/WEF-sycophant EU politicians – would ultimately prevail.
The EU politicians didn’t rabidly object (back in the day) because they feared exactly what is happening now: no practical or better alternative, at least one that wouldn’t have the people rioting in the streets calling for their heads (like they are now or soon will be). EU politicians objected meekly to please the US neocons, but were quite satisfied to kick the ‘green’ can down the road. Sort of let the pipeline happen anyway and object to it later if it ever came to that. I don’t think they expected the tsunami of Russia-hate from the US after the start of the SMO, but they’re all clearly on board nowadays to never use NS2. Until the riots this winter – then they’ll consider that they’ve chosen unwisely.
“I find it hard to believe that the EU/EWF could have planned this episode that far ahead…”
The EC/EU didn’t plan this at all. The Global Deep State didn’t plan it either – they simply reacted to events to further their agenda. EC/EU economies (and governments) will be destroyed and thrown aside. The Deep State is not just a US thing – it’s transnational and it’s not a single entity. WEF-types are part of it, but it’s a leaderless club of clubs that all adhere to the WEF-type anti-human ideology. To them, people are at best a cancer on this planet and at the very least possessions of a state. They must be managed and surveilled 24×7 by an enlightened, ultra-wealthy and ultra-powerful elite. Those elites mostly act through individual governments, but have absolutely no loyalty to ANY state, creed or currency. States, like people, are there to be used when needed, or disposed of when unneeded. Nothing more. The EC and all EU member states were useful at one time, but will be replaced with something more to the WEF cabal’s liking (after the riots). Same with the US. And we will all beg for their ‘solution’.
In Lyman, the Russian army ran away, but the Donbas militia stood and fought. After a few days, fighting all by themselves, they were overwhelmed. It’s presented as the Donbas sorta not obeying orders to retreat in some vague way. Foolish concern for the Donbas civilians left behind to be tormented and so on.
Maybe there’s another explanation why the Russian army ran away.
Wagner fights, Donbas fights, and the Chechens fight, (although they’ve been used up.) Like The Ukraine, all willing to fight and die.
Where has the Russian army itself been willing to fight and die? Did I miss it? 150,000 isn’t it? Where are they?
Posted by: Know Yourself | Oct 3 2022 0:44 utc | 259