Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 1, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-162

Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Comments

Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 1 2022 15:50 utc | 101
I’m not saying it’s true. I’m saying it’s motive.
Why stop there? Here’s a list of state and state-like actors with more motive than Russia.
(I’ve even calculated the level of motive for you)

Ranking perpetrators in order of likely-hood:
1. USA: 100%
2. Poland: 75%
3. israel (60%)
4. Ukraine (54%)
5. UK (54%)
6. Iran (12%)
7. China (10%)
8. Russia (10%)
9. India (7%)

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 15:54 utc | 101

I can see zero strategic or even tactical value in this town right now or in the foreseeable future.
Posted by: c1ue | Oct 1 2022 15:45 utc | 98
Agree. I wonder what the mountain of bullshit about this little town is really about.
The Russians seem to like letting the NotZees do the attacking. No surprise really.
All the talk about “maskirova”, and in the event everything the Russians do is taken at face value. Hmm.
The Ukrainians seem far too predictable to me.
OTOH, I have no idea what is going to happen next.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102

Oh man, Kadyrov criticizing a commander being far away from his troops 🙂
Comedy gold of the highest order. Next he probably criticizes somebody for using a gun instead of tik tok 😉

Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 103

And from Russell Tg, a veteran with direct access to Donbass mil sources:
https://t.me/TXDPR/2374
“Krasny Liman has fallen. Some idiots and liars say and believe there was “an orderly retreat”. Bullshit. The nazis blew the last bridge out of town and so any of our soldiers and civilians who are still left in Krasney Liman will have to walk out, there is no way to go by vehicle now. And I must make a small correction – they will first have to SWIM across the river, and THEN walk, down “The Road of Life”, which is now, being under ukrop observation and “fire control” (i.e., “constant shelling”), more aptly called “The Road of Death”. Idiots who think this is a “minor setback” are just that, idiots, on the level of the “Q” dipshits in the uSA who make posts about Trump coming back to take the Presidency or Obama and the Clintons already being in Gitmo. Idiots.
The loss of Krasney Liman is a failure with strategic ramifications”

Posted by: Kareem | Oct 1 2022 16:00 utc | 104

Yeah, but what does Russell know compared to couch potatoes commenting from 1000 km away *sarcasm* ?
I agree with him. This is a failure which brings to light a quite worrying level of rot. The situation is really dire.
As to the dimwits saying “it’s an unimportant village”. For six weeks now we see the following cycle happening :
– Urrapatriots declare solemnly that town A is a strategic stronghold for the RAF
– Ukraine threatens town A. Urrapatriots confidently declare they will suffer a crushing defeat, said town being impenetrably fortified
– Ukraine encircles town A. Urrapatriots say : “Ha ! Reinforcements are on the way ! Ukronazis are walking into a trap !”
– A brief moment of respite ensues. For a moment, situation seems stabilized.
– Next morning, we learn that town A has fallen and wake up with a video of Ukronazis raising the flag over the town hall.
– Urrapatriots : “It’s all part of the plan ! It was a masterfully executed retreat ! Town A had actually no value after all, haha, it was just a joke. In reality it’s town B which is the *really* strategic point !”
And then Ukronazis start to threaten town B..

Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:07 utc | 105

It seems that, once again, the limitations of the Kremlin’s “slower is better” strategy stand exposed. Russia basically sat out the summer months, achieving little of substance after Severodonetsk/Lysichansk were liberated. The whole plan of depriving the AFU of fuel resources seems to have been quietly abandoned, to name just one issue. We were told not to worry, time is on Russia’s side, time is on Russia’s side: come winter, the Eurolemmings would start to feel the consequences of their own sanctions and some kind of deal would be made, after which happier times would slowly blossom. Well, that whole plan is out of the window now that Russia’s leverage is gone.
Isn’t Paul Craig Roberts starting to look better with things going this way? He has consistently warned that this slowly-softly approach, “don’t escalate, ignore the provocations” gives the enemy all the time he needs to escalate and provoke at his leisure. Sounds pretty close to what we are seeing.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Oct 1 2022 16:07 utc | 106

I’m going to wait for more news, the trolls are getting highly excited by the alleged fall of Lyman, but then they are highly excited by Zelensky photo ops in Vogue.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 1 2022 16:11 utc | 107

In a rare show of unity, colonel Cassad, Kotenok, Sasha Kots, Strelkov all agree : this is a disaster. I have rarely seen Sasha Kots so subdued. Add in Kadyrov with in my view a very well-formulated critique, Russell Texas, the Wagner command…
All the guys who are relatively close to the front and have contacts are quite down. Only dumb couch potatoes writing from western Europe or the US continue deluding themselves. Can’t you see that you are hurting Russia by doing this ? You are only supporting the managerial parasites and yes men which are infesting the Russian state apparatus. These are the ones who continue trying the same old “all is well.. Don’t worry… Trust the plan…”
Well I DO worry because I DO care about Russia. And everything tells me that the situation is extremely grave. It’s not so much a matter of losing soldiers or material ; it’s the the demoralising effect of watching the RAF being pushed back town after town, while a bunch of incompetent generals clink glasses and take selfies in the Georgievsky hall. I swear it must be hard to be a patriotic Russian right now, and I fear they may be tempted to vote with their feet.
One thing for sure ; if I was a Russian eligible for mobilization, I wouldn’t trust the Russian command one bit after this splendid show of incompetence.

Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:19 utc | 108

Lol the denial is still strong
Izyum was a “trap” by the russians according to some idiots here,
Liman is not “important” according to the same dimwits, not to mention the denial past days that there was no encirclement at all!
What are you going to say next? “Donetsk is not that important”?
Wake the hell up! How many times do one have to warn you guys?
Read Kadryov’s post about this mess @ https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/ukraine-open-thread-2022-162.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a2eed8122f200d#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a2eed8122f200d

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:23 utc | 109

Kadyrov is a reckless lunatic for urging the use of nukes. We can all agree on that, right?

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:24 utc | 110

@Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102
First, that town is (almost) in Russia now.
Second, even Kadyrov very much disagrees with the strategy used for that area, like 99% of everyone else.
If you like to listen to Marty from America you’ll get a delusional perspective that doesn’t match the real life at all. That is, the number of idiots in General Staff is unusually high.

Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 111

@alek_a #96:

I agree with everything except the nukes. If you need to use that, you have already lost.

I also don’t see how low-yield nukes can help, except as a last warning before using strategic ones, but it’s no longer unthinkable. You see, for some Russian generals and admirals⁠—and I’m being generous when I use the qualifier “some”⁠—it’s better to burn the entire humanity to the ground than to admit to Russian citizens and, first and foremost, to themselves that their main focus over the past 30 years has been building their stupid McMansions in Moscow Oblast, buying Toyota Land Cruisers for their daughters, and so on, while dismissing their critics⁠—real patriots⁠—as “incompetent amateurs” and “panic-mongers”.
I hope China is taking notes and will perform a comprehensive audit of its military’s true war fighting capability by conducting large-scale, extremely realistic Red Army–Blue Army exercises, to ensure they don’t suffer similar humiliation if and when the time comes to assert China’s sovereign rights over Taiwan.

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112

Follow this link and have the contents translated into English : https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/12148
At the same time both shameful and rage inducing. Russia isn’t holding those four oblasts. Not if this how their army is performing.

Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 16:28 utc | 113

aristodemos@1124 CST
Appears that in this second section of MoA that the second wave of trolls are now in full-spate following their last chance victory in a minor theatre of war before the floodgates are jammed shut by a fully manned Russian offensive. The Ukies will fall along with the falling of the leaves as October heralds the end of their incursions into the RF.
It is mordantly amusing to watch the antics of certain trolls who insist that they are not posting here for blood-money on behalf of the Bank$ter dominated Evil Empire of Lies, braggadocio and basic bullshit.

Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 16:28 utc | 114

well, the lunatics are those who have provoked this war depite knowing their adversary has nukes

Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 16:33 utc | 115

Mar 14, 2022: Vice President Harris calls U.S. commitment to NATO ‘ironclad’
but now
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan says Ukrainian efforts to join NATO should be taken up “at a different time,” throwing cold water on the country’s desire to join the international alliance
and
no more immediate US military support for Ukraine

Unlike Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term.
Capabilities include:
18 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and associated ammunition;
150 Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
150 Tactical Vehicles to tow weapons;
40 trucks and 80 trailers to transport heavy equipment; . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2022 16:34 utc | 116

To assume every troll is paid is to vastly underestimate the power of relentless propaganda over the course of a century. Many have their brain wash on the rinse and repeat cycle into perpetuity.

Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 1 2022 16:36 utc | 117

“Kadyrov is a reckless lunatic for urging the use of nukes. We can all agree on that, right?
Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:24 utc | 110”
I would say yes, also because I don’t really see the military value of using tactical nukes for instance (notwithstanding the fact I was always assured by seeminly knowledgeable experts that Russian military doctrine didn’t consider nukes for use at tactical level.)
Even using a few of them would do what ? Slow down the Ukies for a few weeks ? It won’t be a magical game-changer, maybe at most it could earn a few weeks of respite. But it won’t magically teleport the Russian forces to Kiev or Odessa. So what’s the point ?
This is assuming the Russians have the means to deliver the nukes at the right place, something I’m not sure of. Russian aviation is in shambles, and artillery doesn’t look much better.

Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:37 utc | 118

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112
Funny, I just had the same thought. Chinese leaders must be looking with worry at the hubris in the RF army upper cadres and wondering how much of that applies to them as well.
I just hope there is time for reform using these hard-learned lessons. Adapt or die is the theme now for Russian leadership. Do they have the capacity to adapt to unfavorable circumstances? Of will Putin go the way of Saddam and Gadaffi (the wet dream of many Westerners)?

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 16:38 utc | 119

@Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102
First, that town is (almost) in Russia now.
Second, even Kadyrov very much disagrees with the strategy used for that area, like 99% of everyone else.
If you like to listen to Marty from America you’ll get a delusional perspective that doesn’t match the real life at all. That is, the number of idiots in General Staff is unusually high.
Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 111
I know where it is. If the Ukrainians want to attack “pre-war Russia”, I say go for it.
I can’t say I follow either Kadryov or Martyanov, though they are interesting at times.
Militaries are in general not bastions of intellect. One likes at least to see a sober attitude, but sometimes you can’t get even that.

Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 16:39 utc | 120

@murgen23 #10
“Russian haven’t seen the finest NATO.”
The Afghanis have. So has ISIS. They’ve been taking out “state of the art” German Leopard 2As with relative ease.
I also think the Ukrainians have been given a tiny taste of what the RAF have in their arsenals too. Now that these four regions are now considered part of Russia, then Russia can then justify itself the right to move in heavier assets and manage things directly, instead of using proxy forces themselves.

Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 16:43 utc | 121

Meloni’s first test, a squeeze from Putin:
https://www.rt.com/business/563857-italy-gazprom-supply-halt/
Berlusconi and Salvini to the rescue?
Does Putin want more of their men in the new cabinet, and less NATO stooges from Meloni’s party before turning the taps back on? FM and Defence minister less willing to sell weapons to Ukraine?

Posted by: Et Tu | Oct 1 2022 16:47 utc | 122

@S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112

I also don’t see how low-yield nukes can help, except as a last warning before using strategic ones, but it’s no longer unthinkable. You see, for some NATO generals and admirals⁠—and I’m being generous when I use the qualifier “some”⁠—it’s better to burn the entire humanity to the ground than to admit to American citizens and, first and foremost, to themselves that their main focus over the past 30 years has been building their stupid McMansions around Washington, buying Lexus sedans for their daughters, and so on, while dismissing their critics⁠—real patriots⁠—as “incompetent amateurs” and “panic-mongers”.

Fixed for accuracy.

Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 16:49 utc | 123

P Walker

I also think the Ukrainians have been given a tiny taste of what the RAF have in their arsenals too. Now that these four regions are now considered part of Russia, then Russia can then justify itself the right to move in heavier assets and manage things directly, instead of using proxy forces themselves.

Lol have you missed when Ukraine bombed cities in Russia or Crimea? What was the response by Russia? No response at all!
Just yesterday Russia said this
Kremlin: An attack on annexed territory will be an attack on Russia
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/09/30/Kremlin-An-attack-on-annexed-territory-will-be-an-attack-on-Russia
Well today Ukraine have taken Liman, they have bombed Donetsk but Russia did nothing as usual.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:50 utc | 124

“Well today Ukraine have taken Liman, they have bombed Donetsk but Russia did nothing as usual. ”
you seem to belong to the instant gratification generation, this is not a video game

Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 16:53 utc | 125

Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:50 utc | 123
The territory isn’t legally Russia until the expansion documents are ratified by the Russian court on Oct. 5.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 16:56 utc | 126

@Micron #118,
I’m generally not a nuclear alarmist but I can see one set of assumptions that would make their use “rational” for Russia. I would like to stress that I do not hold these assumptions or think that Russia does, but I consider it plausible that Russian leadership could, at some point, arrive here:
– Ukrainian leadership would prefer to cede territory to end the war, but cannot due to public opinion. Getting nuked on the battlefield would give them cover to do so
– The western response would be limited to retaliatory conventional missile strikes and sanctions
– The war is existential and must be won
– The cost to Russia of winning the war is less than the cost of absorbing the west’s retaliation even if it includes taking out the Black Sea fleet and ports

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:56 utc | 127

>Well today Ukraine have taken Liman, they have bombed Donetsk but Russia did >nothing as usual.
>Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:50 utc | 123
They cannot do much. The Russian society is mentally not ready for sacrifices.
May it will be.
What is good, what I do not see in the West is critic.
Russia is learning. Very slowly, but it is learning.
What Russia is also missing is a new ideology.
You cannot be a consumer, eager to visit shopping malls and fight NATO.

Posted by: marko | Oct 1 2022 17:03 utc | 128

Lyman is taken, the door to the rest of Donetsk is wide open! What is the matter with Russia? I am seriously beginning to suspect that Putin doesn’t want to win this war. But rather is waging it so it serves as cover for an otherwise hidden economic crisis affecting the West (of which Russia remains a crypto part). These endless crises beginning with 2008 have absurdly accelerated and are piling upon each other. The destruction of much the economies of the Eurozone (witness Truss’s kamikaze actions), suggest that indeed a global reset is taking place under the guise and shadow of an absurd serious of “coincidental” crises and events.

Posted by: MallardB | Oct 1 2022 17:08 utc | 129

Pretzelattack @107
Those trolls are still all ga-ga since watching the video of Z. playing piano with his wounded-weenie Dick-Tater.

Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 17:12 utc | 130

A call for peace.
“The 66 nations that called for peace in Ukraine make up more than a third of the countries in the world, and they represent most of the Earth’s population, including India,China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil and Mexico.
While NATO and E.U. countries have rejected peace negotiations, and U.S. and U.K. leaders have actively undermined them, five European countries — Hungary, Malta, Portugal, San Marino and the Vatican — joined the calls for peace at the General Assembly. ”
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/29/66-nations-at-un-say-end-war-in-ukraine/
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/29/66-nations-at-un-say-end-war-in-ukraine/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 1 2022 17:16 utc | 131

“Another such victory over the Romans, and we are undone” Pyrrhus

Posted by: Exile | Oct 1 2022 17:18 utc | 132

Trolls everywhere today. No actual information, just quasi-hysterical opinions about the importance of equipment or how vital an abandoned Russian position is. It reminds me of the endless debates about whether Mohammad Ali could beat Joe diMaggio. The probability is that Kiev is adapting as tactical information arrives from NATO, using less lethally self-destructive tactics of engagement like night-fighting, continuing to terrorise civilians wherever possible, and throwing every resource into PR victories before winter. Russia has made rational but uninspiring decisions which reflect their manpower limitations. However the larger battle is for international credibility and unless the benefits of mobilisation arrive promptly it will degrade confidence in Putin’s leadership. If Putin can fix his manpower issue, there is no doubt that Russian forces will outfight what’s left of Kiev’s troops. The real tragedy is that the more Kiev ‘wins’, the more bodies it piles on the fields. Until then, we can only pray that Europe suddenly produces a few genuine statesmen like De Gaulle. The existing ones are poshlost.

Posted by: tPaine | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 133

Joe Biden in my opinion saying look we know you know we blew up your pipelines with aid of other Nato terrorists, but hey you’d better not attack any Nato member or else, but if you want to you can do something really, really nasty to Ukraine as it isn’t a Nato member.
“US President Joe Biden appears to back off the defense of Ukraine, and draws red line at NATO’s border, saying that the United States and NATO would defend “every inch” of its territory if attacked by Russia. Ukraine is not part of NATO.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 1 2022 14:43 utc | 66

The language does sound forced, conspicuous even. It might be a hint to RF to take its frustrations out on Ukraine but I’ve been thinking about USS Kearsarge lately. Perhaps the language is distinguishing between land & sea, rather than NATO & Ukraine.
AFAIK, Kearsarge is still the single most likely culprit for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. It’s currently heading out into the Atlantic:
https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/vessels/USS-Kearsarge-(LHD-3)/CURRENT-POSITION/1/368702000
It’s at least conceivable that RF might not want let the sabotage, possibly the destruction, of a geostrategic economic asset go without a specific answer but it has so far avoided that sort of escalation.

Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 134

“Another such victory over the Romans, and we are undone”
not as long as the empire of evil (usa) finds others willing to sacrifice their population to fight the empire’s wars, it’s the strategy the criminal british empire has employed so successfully

Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 17:21 utc | 135

It’s pretty clear the USA now views NATO as past it’s prime. Likely just maintaining the charade to not spook out Europeans.
Why do I say this? For starters, this is what the Americans do. Speaking as a Canadian, I can tell you firsthand to never trust the Americans with anything. You can’t even trust a Presidential signature on a treaty, as Trump proved with the JCPOA and Biden’s half-assed attempt to reobtain it.
America has no allies, just vassal states they bully less.
And right now, instead of fighting to reindustrialize by bringing production back from China, they’re forcing European industry out of Europe and into the USA. Reminds me of what Bannon’s original plan with Trump, as laid out by Professor Mark Blythe. But this plan is even more ruthless than the Trump one, and not just because of sending Ukrainians into a meatgrinder.
Without an industrialized Germany, is there any point for NATO anymore? Even with Finland and Sweden joining ultimately means nothing if Germany is kaput.
Putin wanted to demilitarize and denazi Ukraine. They’re well on the way on that.
But I’m not sure even he expected how Ukraine was utterly willing to DEPOPULATE itself. Ukraine’s demographics are going to make Japan look like they’re on a rocket into space. Ukraine is toast, and baffling how willing Europe was to roast themselves to death along with them.
All to protect a corrupt group of oligarchs and their neo-Nazi goons in a non-EU country.
Shows there is no intelligent life on earth, particularly in Western Europe and North America.
/rant

Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:28 utc | 136

@130 republicofscotland
Ukrainian terms for peace negotiations are the withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory and the removal of Putin. Ukrainian territory is defined by the Kiev Govt, as including the four disputed regions and Crimea.
If Russia agrees to these terms then Ukraine will negotiate.
See, how easy it is to call for peace? All Putin has to do is agree and it’s happy days all round. And, no this isn’t going to happen either, but the only ones doing the fighting are Ukraine and Russia, so 66 countries can call for whatever they want. Unless Ukraine and Russia agree, it ain’t happening.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 17:30 utc | 137

One the one hand we have the strong speech by Putin. On the other hands Ukrainian advances – even at enormous costs – at the battlefield. Seems Russia is not quite ready to take on NATO and its proxy forces. Many young people do not seem to really be willing to make sacrifices for the Russian state as it is at present.
No wonder. Russia is still a capitalist state, with huge inequalities in wealth and power. Even Gazprom has still a large amount of private shareholders, now getting rich because of the EU economic suicide sanctions.
To really involve all of the people against the fight for the live of the Russian speaking people of the Ukraine and to defeat NATO and their nazi puppets in Kiev a social revolution in Russia itself will be needed, putting real power in the hands of the people, like when the bolsheviks led the revolution of 1917. This is the total opposite of the pipe dreams of imperialism that hope for an oligarchic coup, deposing Putin and delivering Russia to the west to be divided and plundered.
A fight for socialism in Russia can turn the war for national liberation and unification, into a war for social liberation as well, that could also appeal to the workers and people in general of not only the Ukrainr, but also the west.

Posted by: Ronald Portier | Oct 1 2022 17:31 utc | 138

they’re forcing European industry out of Europe and into the USA.
@P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:28 utc | 135
You know China is a bigger market than the USA, right?

Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 17:32 utc | 139

I am promoting myself to Field Marshall and taking command immediately. Out of my way! And then I woke up. I would need to see casualty rates for the Ukes involved in the Lyman attack, in order to decide who had the best strategy. If the Russians are temporarily withdrawing in order to massacre the Ukes, then it’s a sensible temporary withdrawal. If not, then it’s a screw up. What’s the timeline on those 300,000 troops called up?

Posted by: Leroy | Oct 1 2022 17:34 utc | 140

Interesting analysis from Alexander Mercouris
https://youtu.be/uzybH0RI80Q
On Lyman he believes it’s a small place of little strategic importance but of huge value propaganda Ukraine maintain the narrative of Ukrainian advance before the rains start and Russian re-inforcements arrive i.e. it’s a propaganda win for Ukraine but does nothing to alter the strategic situation in the Donbass
Furthermore there is videos of mass movement of Russian weapons going towards the front.
From IntelSlava

🇷🇺 On the way to Russian Kherson, at least 17 Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical missile systems were spotted, footage of which scattered across the Web.

https://t.me/intelslava/38243

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 17:35 utc | 141

This offensive is proving much more resilient than initially predicted. What is going on? Russia is not supposed to lose towns. They did not resource the SMO properly in the first place. They need to fix this now before people get annoyed at this miscalculation.

Posted by: Kaiama | Oct 1 2022 17:37 utc | 142

salvo

you seem to belong to the instant gratification generation, this is not a video game

Jesus, wake up for crying out loud. When did Russia respond to multiple attacks in Russia? When did they respond to Izyum? When did they respond to Crimea?
Get in your head that there is never a response by Russia, for what I do not know, I would be on incompetence.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 17:37 utc | 143

Posted by: tPaine | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 132
Yes, there is nothing overly strategic about this town but it lays bare a weakness of Russia at the moment.
If the Kremlin is serious about challenging the West in the ways Putin articulated in his speech the other day, they need to: a) stop making celebrations, receptions and other events b) make a plan on how to address the underlying fundamental problems in their armed forces. Which is something that I believe sits squarely in their society. There are, in my view, issues with populism, nationalistic symbolism and religion that are counterproductive, generating a false sense of confidence. I cant articulate it well yet.
The Ukrainians went this summer with a purge in the security apparatus. Coincidentally that was the moment they started winning. Maybe there is a clue for the RF what to do.
And no, sending the new recruits in battle will not help because the underlying weakness (hubris + motivation) will not be solved.
Gaddafi also held anti-west speeches (albeit not that well) but we know what happened to him.

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 17:38 utc | 144

To assume every troll is paid is to vastly underestimate the power of relentless propaganda over the course of a century. Many have their brain wash on the rinse and repeat cycle into perpetuity.
Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 1 2022 16:36 utc | 117
……………………………………………………………………
I agree. There are huge swathes of people for whom joining a real cult requires too much effort, but they find they can get 90% of the gratification derived from sacrificing the “burden” of critical thinking by simply attaching themself to an authority they encountered online. Sometimes that authority has their talking points originating from an outfit like the one of a David Brock, other times the talking points filter down from someone on a government payroll. There’s a lot of intersection between the two, and it’s both horrifying and amusing to see pundits work at keeping up to date with them, to stay “on the beam” as they used to say in the days of radio advertising.
Listening to you I get the music
Gazing at you I get the heat
Following you I climb the mountain
I get excitement at your feet
Right behind you I see the millions
On you I see the glory
From you I get opinions
From you I get the story
But anyway, God might indeed seem to fight on the side with the mightiest artillery, and the losses of Ukraine’s best troops in the latest offenses are critical ones. It’s those troops that enable Ukraine to play on the offense and not just the defense, and they are getting used up at an unsustainable rate, a rate that is horrific even.
On top of that Ukraine has lost so many armored vehicles to Russian artillery, aircraft, and missiles, that NATO countries are now faced with having to decide whether or not to make a controversial decision to strip their essential reserves of top tier armor in order to give Ukraine the bare minimum to make more credible offensive operations.
Autumn is at hand and foliage coverage is rapidly disappearing. The Russian forces large numbers of drones, satellites, and aircraft will now be able to more readily pinpoint all of Ukraine’s equipment, and troop concentrations. Shipments of more equipment that get begrudgingly sent to Ukraine will soon begin to have to travel through mud or snow to make it to the front lines. Imo it grows more likely that the last sections of track leading to those front lines will soon be getting destroyed at will by Russia, should Ukraine try to use them.
This is the real end game Ukraine and Russia will be entering. The losses of Ukrainian hardware that have steadily been incurred since the beginning of the SMO have nowhere near been replaced, and Ukraine is even dipping into equipment it had reserved for the defenses of essential locations like Odessa. Those who’ve read some of the history of America’s Civil War will recognize a similarity to the desperation that the South had as their resources dried up.
But imo the most critical losses are Ukraine’s recent losses of its best troops, committed to win PR victories that Zelenskyy saw as worth the cost. Well, NATO membership is off the table since that decision was made, and shipments to Ukraine are going to consist more and more of thoughts and prayers, and warm words of firm commitment, rather than the main battle tanks that they desperately need, in addition to supplies of basically everything else imaginable.
Though I suspect that there’s an element within Washington that sees a benefit to shipping long range missiles Zelenskyy to attack Russia with. The resulting chaos could be to their benefit financially and politically, especially if they bet accordingly ahead of time, and wised up their friends as well.
This same element might also see a benefit to be had if Russia responded by taking out Western staffed locations in Kiev. This is apocalyptic thinking though, and since plenty of very powerful people in Washington and Europe could imagine how much they’d lose by it, they would hopefully nip in the bud the idea of making a shipment of a lot of such long range missiles, or at a minimum they’d insist on keeping them under American control, for use only as a threat against Russian escalation, and missile attacks on Kiev.

Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 145

@Tom UK
The emptiness of your omnipresent views makes me sick.
Learn this, you BBC-raised turd : winning a battle is not winning a war, winning two battles neither. So stop wanking to the fake idea that NATO is turning Ukros into the big fellas of the yard. It’s an illusion, a fantasy you’re just fancying.
De quoi l’OTAN est-elle le nom ? What NATO stands for ? Mainly the facade name for the US Army presence all over the world, only capable to communicate with you Brit Royals asslickers, anyway the rest of us don’t speak their cottonmouth language. And what’s their faits d’armes : a list of failures as long as my arm, incapable as they are of victory even against slingshots… Korea, Vietnam, Irak, Somalia, Afghanistan, Venezuela, even a tiny modestly developed country such as Cuba goes up against them…
So, you tiny Tom-thumb dream about them defeating Russia ? If your donkey-like obstinacy was not so pathetic, if your own country was not so much of a scoundrel bunch, it might make me smile.
It’s about time we send the Yankee home with their shitty food, their shitty cultural values. (We’ll just keep some of their musics, authors and a few movies, thank you)
I’m French by the way and my government is just a little less dumb as yours.

Posted by: xiao pignouf | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 146

https://tomluongo.me/2022/09/29/the-curious-whodunit-of-nordstreams-1-and-2/
Posted by: morongobill | Oct 1 2022 14:30 utc | 60
Thanks for posting this, some of which I agree with, but some of which fries my brain. Despite what Putin says, I believe the Pipelines are repairable, if both Russia and Germany wants them to be repaired. Otherwise its open war on all of humanity, where any infrastructure of any country is a potential target.
Basically World War III and we are all Dead.
Extract:
“In the short run, the neocons think they’ve won a big victory. In the long run, it seals Europe’s fate by crashing their markets so they can blame Russia and the US for their bankruptcy while defaulting and consolidating power in Brussels.
Blowing up NS1 and NS2 is a brilliant tactical move, it takes options from Putin and leaves him with more military than economic options. Why does anyone think the EU and Davos don’t benefit from this since this is what they actually wanted, prolonged war with Russia. Or am I misreading EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell and NATO Sec. General Jens Stoltenberg? Curious.
In the long run this is a terrible strategic move because it now puts everyone’s infrastructure on the table. Everything is fair game now.
France is happy to see this happen b/c bringing Germany down elevates them. Blackmailing the Italians is next on the flowchart… has to happen while Italy is in a gas deficit, i.e. Libya offline. France has been instrumental in cutting off Italy’s gas supply from N. Africa. There is no love loss between Italy and France. And EU sanctions keep Italy in gas deficit. With hostilities in Libya ending, gas will flow. So, destabilizing Italy’s financial markets now is paramount… or did no one see the blowout in BTP yields this week?
The Neocons are Straussian in their thinking. Better to burn down everything rather than lose. I don’t agree with all of this article, but the basics are sound.
Theirry Meyssan — voltairenet.org/article217976.…
In short, the Neocons are not the only Straussians at this gaming table. Davos’ whole strategy is predicated on tearing down the old system, liquidating as many liabilities as possible (people, systems, debt, etc.) and then offering a new replacement at the depth of everyone’s despair.
Europe’s only solution, said many times by Soros, is to default by issuing perpetual debt, consols, and rolling up all the political power in Europe to the EU Commission and the ECB.
To do that you NEED a collapse of the German middle class.
With the ECB losing to the Fed over keeping rates low and going for MMT, 80% of the ECB’s balance sheet is at risk. The EU cannot function with a bankrupt ECB. The eurozone ceases to exist. President Lagarde is now losing control over internal bond spreads now that the BoE intervened.”

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 147

Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 17:12 utc | 129
i think they hired more of them to go along with the Ukranian offensive. I think it is a measure of the effectiveness of this blog, that there are so many. I’m going to wait for b and others I trust to weigh in on this.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 1 2022 17:42 utc | 148

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 15:45 utc | 92
After the referendum, we can say that Ukraine controls more Russian land than Russia controls Ukrainian land. Russia controls no territories in Ukraine, whereas Ukraine is making inroads in territories now claimed to be Russian land.
I think this is part of the frustration of those criticizing the ineptitude of the Russian defenses at Liman. If you are going to make a big deal about these territories now being part of Russia after the referendum, then you had better be immediately prepared to expel the Ukrainians from these territories, else it makes all the pronouncements and hoopla surrounding the referendums seem empty.
I think this is part of Kadyrov’s and Micron’s and others’ frustrations. The fact is, the Russian military is not a perfect organization. Just like in the US military, yes-men rather than actual leaders are likely to be promoted due to the highly bureaucratic, and hence political, nature of the army.
The relatively decentralized command structure of Russian forces below Shoigu combined with the problem noted above means that things like Liman are likely to happen.

Posted by: WJ | Oct 1 2022 17:45 utc | 149

Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 17:32 utc | 138

You know China is a bigger market than the USA, right?

But the target audience in Europe is still ideologically trapped inside Atlanticist thought and the idea of stepping out of it fills them with doubt and dread. Safer not to rock the boat.
America loves the sanctions weapon, and while that has been declining, it’s strong enough to keep a good number of smaller actors in lockstep. Also there is some form of vendor lock in when it comes to Europe as America is still a sizeable market that is becoming more free of Chinese competitors and/or the need to find local Chinese partners? So why go to China?
“No one every got fired by buying from IBM” was a mantra in the computer era I was from. Even thought just about anything else out there was better than IBM produced, IBM still had ways of making lives of people miserable, like calling the managers of purchasing agents and filling their bosses with so much FUD, contracts were shifted back to IBM.
This is how America always worked: brute force. Why do you think they fetishize guns? Because at the core Americans are about abusive power while pretending they’re about “the art of the deal.”

Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 150

I am going to guess that NATO is using and focusing all available precision guided artillery munitions they are giving the Ukrainians coupled with excellent satellite imagery and it is throwing Russian lines into chaos.
With Russian advantage in artillery and aviation I am amazed at how easily the Ukrainians can build pontoon bridges and cross rivers in multiple places apparently little molested.
Being far away it appears the Russians are in total chaos in that area.

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 1 2022 17:54 utc | 151

@P Walker #122:

Fixed for accuracy.

Not at all. NATO technical intelligence—electronic, radar, satellite, cyber (social networks, messengers, email)—performs great. NATO communications perform great. NATO logistics perform well. NATO operational command performs well, quickly adapting to the situation. Neither of those things can be said about Russia’s MoD (except for electronic/radar intelligence, which seem to work well). That means that U.S. generals have done their job and earned their McMansions, while Russian generals haven’t. The proof is in the pudding.

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 17:56 utc | 152

@P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 149
Repost about BASF’s new investments in China.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/putins-remarks-on-europe.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e20d51200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e20d51200c

Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 18:07 utc | 153

Logistically, in the current econonmic climate especially, even the full mobilization of all combined NATO members would still have difficulty matching the industrial munitions output and certainly the energy output necessary to win total war in Europe.
Who dares disagree?

Posted by: Tgl | Oct 1 2022 18:07 utc | 154

They’re literally laughing at the Russian Armed forces and taunting them over the number they killed or captured :
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1576248108690079745

Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 18:09 utc | 155

“Not at all. NATO technical intelligence—electronic, radar, satellite, cyber (social networks, messengers, email)—performs great. NATO communications perform great. NATO logistics perform well. NATO operational command performs well, quickly adapting to the situation. Neither of those things can be said about Russia’s MoD (except for electronic/radar intelligence, which seem to work well). That means that U.S. generals have done their job and earned their McMansions, while Russian generals haven’t. The proof is in the pudding.”
you do really need to fetishize nato, of course nato has the biggest *****

Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 18:14 utc | 156

Source: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27452.5/4656028/
The Ministry of Defense announced the withdrawal from Krasny Liman to more advantageous positions
The change of lines was undertaken “in connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement of the allied forces”
Many experts now look at Zelensky as a victim. The artist seemed to have just sat down with a pack of business cards in a railway compartment and decided to play cards for money on a drunken bench. Only now, near Liman, the Kyiv authorities have merged several trump cards – part of their reserves.
Even Generalissimo Alexander Suvorov told the soldiers: “Going forward, know how to turn back.” The Russian commander took care of his military personnel. But Zelensky certainly didn’t read The Science of Winning.
So, according to today’s report of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the armed formations of Ukraine continue to lose hundreds of personnel. Igor Konashenkov, official representative of the Ministry of Defense, spoke about this at the last briefing .
Here is his review in all directions: “At the positions of the 14th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, over 50 militants and 12 units of special military equipment were eliminated by missile strike. More than 200 soldiers, five tanks and nine infantry fighting vehicles were destroyed at the positions of Ukrainian military personnel in the Krasnolimansky direction in a day. More than 270, five tanks, six infantry fighting vehicles, 23 armored fighting vehicles and 11 vehicles were killed in Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog. More than 100 nationalists of the 110th brigade, two tanks and six vehicles were destroyed in the Novopol area. In Zaporozhye, up to 60 servicemen and 10 units of military equipment, as well as two American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, were destroyed.
Again, we are talking about 700 killed servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But this does not stop the Kyiv authorities, does not make them think. They introduce new reserves into the battle and continue the offensive in these directions. Most stubbornly in the Krasny Liman area.
“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, the allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines,” Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.
According to the Ministry of Defense, air strikes, missile forces and artillery in Ukraine hit: the launcher of the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system, the MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force, 6 command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout Ukraine, 4 warehouses with weapons, 68 artillery units, live force and military equipment in 153 districts.
During the day, air defense forces shot down 14 drones, 7 shells of American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, 2 HARM anti-radar missiles, manufactured by the United States, and a Tochka-U tactical missile.

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 157

The head of the German Defense Ministry arrived on an unannounced visit to Odessa and promised Kiev to deliver IRIS-T air defense systems in the coming days

Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 18:18 utc | 158

Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 149
“No one every got fired by buying from IBM”
When Margaret Thatcher shutdown all the wealth creating industries of the North of England about 1980, and my little bit of it working for International Computers Limited, I moved from Manchester to London, when I was about 28 years old.
I worked on various kit, but I couldn’t believe how primative IBM stuff was
Us British, were 10 years ahead of them.
Eventually IBM and DEC caught up, by stealing most of our ICL stuff
At the time I was working with this bloke, though I can’t say I remember him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway_Berners-Lee
Tim’s Dad.
Still they slag us British off.
Germany and Japan, weren’t even in the game.
They nicked our stuff too
Most of it came from Manchester University
Tony

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 18:21 utc | 159

I think there is one simple insight that today brought.
Russia cant take Ukraine on with their professional army. Not without recklessly leaving other areas unmanned and not after NATO intervened. They are simply not big enough. With hindsight, that is not a strange assertion is it? Russia vs the West, it was never in the bag. Incompetence, hubris, morale etc. does not matter that much in the big picture, it is there also on the other side.
Now, they shall be going in with regulars a few months from now. That is a completely different set of circumstances. Parents getting their children send back in coffins. Not easy to hold on for a long period.
We shall see. For now, they may lose more territory but later regain it. At what cost though?

Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 18:25 utc | 160

@Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 158
700 is nothing. A single salvo of TOS can do more than that but none were used, apparently. They’ve lost a region that is in Russia now. And all that ignoring the daily attacks on civilian areas in Donetsk, Energodar and so on which fail to be prevented. I guess “fake it till you make it” isn’t working for them.

Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 18:36 utc | 161

Again, we are talking about 700 killed servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But this does not stop the Kyiv authorities, does not make them think. They introduce new reserves into the battle and continue the offensive in these directions. Most stubbornly in the Krasny Liman area.
Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 158
But how can we be sure Russian estimates are accurate? There is lack of proof for these large numbers – no pictures or videos of even 1/10 of that amount.

Posted by: MimiMo | Oct 1 2022 18:37 utc | 162

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:24 utc | 110″
I would say yes, […]
Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:37 utc | 119

Bloody hell, they’re talking to each other! It’s like that Journey to the Microcosm youtube channel where they collect pond scum onto a microscope slide and see the tiny microbes interact and even evolve together 😀

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 18:38 utc | 163

During military history Russian army even when winning has almost always suffered haevier losses than enemy. For instance in Winter War (1939-40) with most realistic numbers 26,000 Finns deceased whole according database studied by Pavel Petrov Soviet military lost 167,976 soldiers deceased.
So winning with huge marginal (of personal losses lower than those of enemy) has never Russian tradition. Russia has just sacrificied much more cannon fodder than enemy. Who the heck is really now thinking that Russian forces (+ Allied) has lost just 10% of men compared to Ukrainian forces? Russia is loosing ground just because its army has been unable to inflict higher enough losses to Ukraine. Forget the RF MoD claims of over 62,000 deceased UAF soldiers. It never really happened. There is no logic on it. Where are those almost 300,000 wounded Ukie soldiers? Only in RF MoD fantasies.

Posted by: Matias | Oct 1 2022 18:42 utc | 164

@163 MimiMo
The Russian figures on Ukrainian losses are not accurate. They are fantasy. Fiction. Not dissimilar to the US and their body counts in Vietnam.
The Russian Ministry of Defence account of the battle is more fiction than fact. The only things that are accurate are location names, and even then I would check them out first.

Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 18:48 utc | 165

“But how can we be sure Russian estimates are accurate? There is lack of proof for these large numbers – no pictures or videos of even 1/10 of that amount. ”
I’m not sure about the numbers given by the russians, but it is plausible imho that being constantly targeted by superior artillery causes huge losses esp if one is on the offensive. Even the pro-ukrainian western media (such as NYT), not known for being objective, admit that the ukrainians suffer huge, “massive” losses. Of course, if you believe that the russian military is crap as some here do then those numbers may seem implausible

Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 18:48 utc | 166

@Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 158
700 is nothing. A single salvo of TOS can do more than that but none were used, apparently. They’ve lost a region that is in Russia now. And all that ignoring the daily attacks on civilian areas in Donetsk, Energodar and so on which fail to be prevented. I guess “fake it till you make it” isn’t working for them.
Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 18:36 utc | 162
Yes, Russia talks big but doesn’t back up its fighters on the ground. They are hardly supplying the Donbass fighters, while Ukrainian forces are getting heavy support from U.S./NATO countries (and some non-NATO countries too). The Donbass fighters have to beg for money and supplies and it is private organizations collecting gear and even clothes for them. It seems that they and the Russian forces in Ukraine have been hung out to dry in many areas – lack of supplies, reinforcements, and better tactics.

Posted by: MiniMo | Oct 1 2022 18:51 utc | 167

How is it so difficult to understand that 7-8 waves of mobilisation have given Ukraine nummerical superiority? Combine that with what? 80-100 billion Dollars worth of equipment and NATO intelligence and you get results. War is a numbers game. Ukraine knew where Russian forces were thinned out and struck there. For Ukraine, 1k-5k losses dont matter, they have enough mobilized.
What the Russian army or the politicians failed to do, was to either give up on the Ukraine war earlier or mobilize. They knew NATO was pumping up Ukraine with military equipment, they knew NATO was giving intelligence and they knew Ukraine had nummerical superiority. And still, they kept their template of slowly grinding down forces that had no value for Ukraine, while Ukraine build their strike groups. That fault is with the Russian military and/or political leadership.
Those failures have been fixed with the mobilisation, but it takes time for the results to come in. Ukraine is using this window for territorial gains. But that doesnt matter in the grand picture. Western ppl who comment here and side with Ukraine get satisfaction out of it and disregard what will happen in a couple of weeks. This denial was happening to Russians before mobilisation, its now just reversed happening to Ukraine’s supporters.

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 18:52 utc | 168

Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 1 2022 15:50 utc | 101
It became clear to a few people early on that every one of the expected suspects, which includes Russia, had an interest in this ‘play’.
(Important to note ‘play’ (not ‘event’), when you try to analyze these matters, and not confuse the play with events that are part of elements of the play. Spin, or narrative, is the other component.)
The play here is somebody did something very nasty that with some minor hyperbole can affect every human on this planet (because of the green house gas “leak”). So whoever gets stuck with the donkey’s tail will suffer damage of some sort.
(Another important matter to keep in mind is that just like you can, after the fact, try and connect dots and reach some relevant analysis, the perpetrators of conspiracies also can project ahead and in today’s world almost know exactly what sort of response can be elicited.)
In case of this event, whoever did this thing, MUST have known that there would be numerous candidates each with plausible deniability. Every single one. Whoever did this, KNEW (past tense) this.
So analysis to uncover that focuses on “who benefits” is not gonna work. That is part of the brilliance of this attack. When Bliken said “it is in no one’s interest”, of course, since he is a professional liar (like all his peers) we should flip that to what just was outlined above. Anyone could have done this. We ALL had an interest.
An alternative question is required, besides “who benefits?”. The question is,
“Who benefits IFF the results of the investigation can be effectively discounted?”
Only ONE actor benefits in that scenario.
Whoever did this KNEW investigation would be minimally controlled if not done by NATO.
Whoever did this KNEW that EVERYONE would assume that no matter what the actual facts are NATO/US would say Russia. EVEN IF in fact Russia did it.
So, who benefits if “global south” & “dissident Westerners” & “nervous Western capitalists” disbelieves the NATO conclusions?
That ONE beneficiary is the Russian Federation. __This is conclusive__.
Truth and nothing but the truth, IFF you believe in ‘What’s right’ …

Posted by: Unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:53 utc | 169

@163 MimiMo
The Russian figures on Ukrainian losses are not accurate. They are fantasy. Fiction. Not dissimilar to the US and their body counts in Vietnam.
The Russian Ministry of Defence account of the battle is more fiction than fact. The only things that are accurate are location names, and even then I would check them out first.
Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 18:48 utc | 166
Do you think there is some formula for Russian claims? Like if on a day they say 300 total died, that the real number is 1/2, 1/3, etc. of that? I mean, do you think when they claim almost 700 that more were killed than when they claim around 300?
Do you have any idea they aren’t arming the Donbass fighters better? Is it the lack of support of the majority of Russians why Russia is not putting as much resources into this fight as it needs?

Posted by: MiniMo | Oct 1 2022 18:57 utc | 170

How many NATO soldiers are in the fighting now ?

Posted by: Exile | Oct 1 2022 18:58 utc | 171

p.s.
If US didn’t do this, it is in US’s best interest to insure key nations can monitor and possibly participate in the investigation. This is the ONLY WAY US can make sure it doesn’t get the tail, if it is in a karmic boy that cried wolf sort of way actually innocent.

Posted by: unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:58 utc | 172

Haha Ukraine just struck Crimea again!
Photos, image
https://t.me/rybar/39624
https://t.me/rybar/39627
I understand why russian conscripts are running away since their is no security at all for them in this war, not even in Crimea!
Seriously, this incompetence!?

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 18:59 utc | 173

All these fuckers, creamed us off. Nortel took the remnants of my ICL Pension scheme, and cos I have an unusual name, found my address in London.
The administrators of Nortel a Canadian Company, sent me several letters, and offered me a buyout from what was left.
You can have £45 or £2 a month.
I replied Thanks, I will take the £2 a month
Seriously impressed that they traced me.
Tony

Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 19:00 utc | 174

One Russian soldier (on average) has never been equal to 2 western. In fact it has been the opposite. Ukrainian army is another story but it’s hardly possible that Russian soldier is better than 1 to 1. Now when there are much more Ukies in large frontline zone and high class western intelligence material backing they don’t have huge problems to slowly grind low motivated Russian soldiers. In modern warfare there are mostly 5-15 soldiers per km2. We are far from old time 200-500 per km2. That’s why personal losses have not been as high as high claims of both sides are suggesting.
Clearly we are witnessing now one of the biggest humiliation of Russian army during their military history. Consequences will be immense. Even globally.

Posted by: Tramonte | Oct 1 2022 19:01 utc | 175

Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog on supply problems (September 28, 2022):

The behavior of the people is very inspiring and the blockheadedness of the Ministry of Defense is very disappointing. Everyone already knows that there are supply problems. The Ministry of Defense stubbornly pretends that nothing special is happening. Not a single liberal discredits the course of the SMO as much as our generals, who believe that they are in some kind of military sect, in which voicing problems is taboo and betrayal.
“Your fly is open, zip it.”
“Firstly, it is not open, and secondly, I will not zip it.”

Tell us already that in the course of the SMO shortcomings and omissions in the rear support of the troops have been revealed. Proceedings are being held, shortcomings are being eliminated, but for now, dear citizens⁠—sell, rent, donate us quadcopters, thermal imagers, night-vision goggles. Help with sleeping bags, polyurethane foam mats and tactical backpacks. Bring tourniquets and bandages. Donate folding cots. We will be grateful, and after the SMO we will not forget to award everyone with at least a certificate of appreciation.
You will be bombarded with all these items. But no, they are pretending with a straight face that everything is fine. And in the end, it seems that everyone knows that you have problems, except for yourself. Can you stop making yourself look like idiots? In short, Ministry of Defense, zip your fly, fucker, and be more flexible already. Remember that the army and the people are one. When carrying out mobilization you can’t do without the people, but to ask them for a sleeping bag—no, no, otherwise they will start asking questions where the money went. Stop fearing for your skins [careers — S], start fearing for the soldiers already.

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:05 utc | 176

One Russian soldier (on average) has never been equal to 2 western. In fact it has been the opposite. Ukrainian army is another story but it’s hardly possible that Russian soldier is better than 1 to 1. Now when there are much more Ukies in large frontline zone and high class western intelligence material backing they don’t have huge problems to slowly grind low motivated Russian soldiers. In modern warfare there are mostly 5-15 soldiers per km2. We are far from old time 200-500 per km2. That’s why personal losses have not been as high as high claims of both sides are suggesting.
Clearly we are witnessing now one of the biggest humiliation of Russian army during their military history. Consequences will be immense. Even globally.
Posted by: Tramonte | Oct 1 2022 19:01 utc | 176
This is a prime example of a Western living out is racial superiority. What gives a Western human superiority over a Russian human? Both are humans. Its the same mindset the Wehrmacht had at the beginning of Operation Barbarossa: Those Eurasian subhumans are worth nothing, we aryans will teach them a lesson. And it ended in Berlin. Bernhard, please delete those Nazi comments and ban the racists. Thx!

Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 19:07 utc | 177

is liman still in russia? or crimea? i think putin better organize some new music party and great military games. western leaders are walking around in odessa and promise shiny new weapons. how on earth 40.000 ukros walking around freely? and the ROW support is on the thin line already…i know i know, slow is better, winter is coming, it’s part of the 5D chess, blah, blah, blah…in tommorow’s news: russia is retreat from moscow in better fortified position in orderly manner…

Posted by: denazi | Oct 1 2022 19:13 utc | 178

@ Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 19:07 utc | 178
the west excels at racism and seem incapable of recognizing when they are engaged in it.. its a byproduct of the culture they live in where they are told it is acceptable to trash others they don’t know or understand…

Posted by: james | Oct 1 2022 19:16 utc | 179

Lordy, the shills are out in force today. What’s being covered up?

Posted by: Meh | Oct 1 2022 19:16 utc | 180

Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog writes (September 30, 2022):

I no longer believe in blockheadedness and stupidity of the Ministry of Defense. It is impossible to screw things up so much. This is deliberate betrayal and sabotage.

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:23 utc | 181

Source: https://www.vesti.ru/article/2969316
01 October 2022 22:01
Prigozhin supported Kadyrov’s position on Krasny Liman
Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin supported the position of the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, around the situation in Krasny Liman.
On the page of the Concord company owned by him on the VKontakte social network, a post was published in which the words of the businessman are given. Prigozhin notes that Kadyrov’s expressive statement is, of course, not in his style, but he agrees with this. The businessman also offered to send “all these thugs” with machine guns and barefoot to the front.
Earlier, the head of Chechnya commented on the situation around Krasny Liman. Kadyrov said that the responsibility for the withdrawal of allied troops rested with the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin.
——
Interesting, that Colonel-General Alexander Lapin receives so much FLAK from Russian media..

Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 19:24 utc | 182

@ Tramonte | Oct 1 2022 19:01 utc | 176
Ukies in large frontline zone and high class western intelligence material backing they don’t have huge problems . . .
Yes, the US experience in its forever wars has been that soldiers fighting in their country’s defense have been a huge challenge against the efforts of US puppet armies and against US military forces as well. So the US hasn’t won a war on fifty years.
“One day while I was in a bunker in Vietnam, a sniper round went over my head. The person who fired that weapon was not a terrorist, a rebel, an extremist, or a so-called insurgent. The Vietnamese individual who tried to kill me was a citizen of Vietnam, who did not want me in his country. This truth escapes millions.” –Mike Hastie, U.S. Army Medic, Vietnam 1970-71

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2022 19:24 utc | 183

Russian leadership is pretty pathetic. We all knew in this blog of simple joes for WEEKS that Lyman was about to fall. So it might have made more sense to do an orderly evacuation.
Why wait until last minute when its known with 99% certainty that you cannot hold this position? Why get your people captured/killed and your equipment taken??
Makes absolutely zero sense. This is very worrying as it seems Putin and his advisors are living in another reality.
Seems Russia was not ready at all for this conflict.

Posted by: Comandante | Oct 1 2022 19:25 utc | 184

Whatever you promoters of western propaganda want for us to think, fine! But when Biden gies through the Western talking points, it all sounds like let’s go all out into the Chaos! And you propagandists as well, who live in a dream reality, which you take it after a life time of study we will swallow. What is that chaos? Who can say yet?

Posted by: Geoff | Oct 1 2022 19:29 utc | 185

After the referendum, we can say that Ukraine controls more Russian land than Russia controls Ukrainian land.
Posted by: WJ | Oct 1 2022 17:45 utc | 150

Fabulous logic. Brilliant.
Let’s look at more imaginary examples:
– Country R takes over ALL of country U, but one man still remains in his house armed with a stick; “Country U controls more of country R’s land than R controls U’s land”.
– A criminal is convicted and put in jail, his money (in millions) and possessions are seized to be sold and given to his victims, but one penny remains in his pocket as he sits in jail: “He has more of the government’s money and property than the government has his”.

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 19:29 utc | 186

Latest from Andrei Martyanov
https://youtu.be/8z8GTnhhtPk

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 19:31 utc | 187

Posted by: Ronald Portier | Oct 1 2022 17:31 utc | 139
Hello CIA! already plotting a new color revolution?

Posted by: Lemming | Oct 1 2022 19:33 utc | 188

@Oblamovka daydream #183, it’s a little weird isn’t it? Lapin took control of that front very recently and it clearly was in rough shape before he got there. In general I get the impression that Russia’s lines are just too thin especially after reinforcing Kherson, so maybe defending Lyman was possible but only at the cost of making a critical weakness elsewhere. And I think their rear areas are *very* lightly defended after seeing what happened in Kharkiv where one breakthrough let AFU run riot through a huge territory. Russia is desperate to not see that happen in Luhansk so whatever depth their defense has will be preserved at least until mobiks can get parked in the trenches.
But I think one of Kadyrov’s lines gets at why he is such a target – the mention of nepotism. Lapin was photographed decorating his son after Russia withdrew from the north. Lapin’s son commanded an elite tank company that performed particularly poorly and reportedly lost half of its tanks. Anyway it seems like a significant development that Kadyrov, Prigozhin and others (some former general now in the Duma) are making public this kind of extremely pointed and personal criticism.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 19:36 utc | 189

It is reported that only 500 Lugansk Cossacks and Cuban Cossacks (volunteers from Russia) were defending Lyman / Krasny Liman for around 2 weeks.
Russian Armed Forces 20th Guards Combined Arms Army were providing long range artillery support without any frontline presence, according to Russian reports over the weeks.
Ukrainian forces attacking the settlement were numbering 6 to 9 thousand troops.
Lyman / Krasny Lyman has received a disproportionate amount of attention. We have never focused on this settlement, not in May, not in September. We never reported on it in depth. In our opinion, there’s one far more important battle taking place, and that is the battle for Bakhmut.
Lyman is another Snake Island. At the moment, it is the only place where the Ukrainian armed forces offensive succeeded: so it is being reported on extensively. The offensive has failed everywhere else along the entire frontline; especially in Kherson. This can always change, but factually, the only party at the moment capturing strategically important territory is the Russian side in the southern direction, specifically in Bakhmut.
That is not to minimize the tactics employed by the Ukrainians, they displayed an excellent strategy around Lyman / Krasny Lyman and there was little the small number of militia fighters could do to counter it; they just focused their tactics on the wrong place. Holding Lyman will not give the Ukrainian Armed Forces any strategic advantage. In fact, it’s highly likely that Lyman is in range of Russian artillery crews who will almost certainly level it with the ground.
For now, we’ll leave Lyman / Krasny Lyman alone and report on the situation in a few days — if there are any changes.
t.me/asbattlefield

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/11391

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 19:44 utc | 190

Reuters is setting up the false flag nuke event
Russia abandons Ukrainian bastion, Putin ally suggests nuclear response
It is Kadyrov, Head of the Chechen Republic, who they are claiming is the Putin “ally” with the suggestion…..with friends like this, who needs enemies….sigh

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 1 2022 19:46 utc | 191

Meh @181: “Lordy, the shills are out in force today. What’s being covered up?”
The captagon Nazi zombies bum rushed into an industrial shredder and overloaded it with their corpses. This allowed the Nazis zombies who overflowed from the grinder to capture a cow barn. The Empire of Lies & Delusions needs to make the most of it so they are pulling in even the second string trolls (the ones who can barely form coherent sentences). They are also refreshed from a couple days off (US military propaganda headquarters in Tampa, Florida, was closed for a couple days due to hurricane) so they are making up time now.
There are more paid trolls than legitimate posters in this thread so clearly our host has drawn the ire of imperial flunkies. They wouldn’t be wasting monies they could pocket through graft on nickel-post trolls if they didn’t feel they had to.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 19:47 utc | 192

Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog on the latest developments (October 1, 2022):

Now it has started: “Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin is to blame for everything.” “No, he’s not. He visits the front line.” And all this is discussed in Telegram. You know why? Because the Ministry of Defense does not tell us who is to blame. Perhaps, Lapin is not to blame. Then who is to blame? No one. At the Ministry of Defense, everything’s fine. Ukronazis are being destroyed, the enemy is losing military equipment, missiles are striking warehouses. Everything’s fine there. How can one search for anyone to blame when everything is going swimmingly?
— What’s with our losses? Why did we leave the city?
— Oh, comrade General, is it worth talking about such trifles? Listen to this instead: 15 units of military equipment and up to 200 servicemen have been destroyed…
— Good!
— You bet! We continue to strike military targets of the enemy. From the air and with missiles. Here’s a video: a BTR has been hit.
— Wonderful!
— So, since this is so… may I have a medal?
— Sure thing. Prepare a recommendation. And continue to rout the enemy in the same way.
— We’re happy to work hard. Tomorrow we will paint an even more impressive picture of victories!
— And, by the way, what are they writing about our achievements in those… erm… telegrams?
— Is it even worth reading them? What do they know about military strategy? But, in general, everyone is very happy. They are praising your military genius.
— Well, that’s all righty! Good job! Keep working at the same pace.

Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:48 utc | 193

Down South

“It is reported that only 500 Lugansk Cossacks and Cuban Cossacks (volunteers from Russia) were defending Lyman / Krasny Liman for around 2 weeks.”

That is disgusting, so Liman was only held with volunteers! Shameful behavior by Russia, they have missiles they can use every day but they send volunteers! to defend against Nato armed ukrainian forces.
Shoigu needs to go, before Ukraine take the war towards Moscow sooner or later if this failure keeps on coming on the battlefield.

Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 19:50 utc | 194

@ William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 19:47 utc | 193 with the view of the MoA bar….grin
I agree. These newbie barflys are something to watch. They have spent no time as lurkers here and don’t have a clue about us regulars but just bust in piss on the floor and leave…..some return and think they are “becoming regulars” with the edgy spiel.
And they think they are being effective…..grin

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 1 2022 19:56 utc | 195

That ONE beneficiary is the Russian Federation. __This is conclusive__.
Posted by: Unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:53 utc | 170

See, people like you, who think in 100% logical constructions, are usually wrong about everything. I went to university (computer science and math) with people like you. It’s a bloodbath. Autistic doesn’t begin to describe it.
You’re saying that if the gas pipe sabotage somehow ends up benefiting Russia, then by logical deduction, Russia is likely the one that sabotaged the gas pipe.
But by the same reasoning, if the good people of the world eventually win this war (and become “the ONE beneficiaries” of the outcome), then logically it must have been the good people who started the war in the first place. “This is __conclusive__”.
Your logic is complete drivel.
If someone assaults me in a dark alley, and I break his face and walk away safely, and thus end up being the “ONE beneficiary”, it doesn’t mean I set up the attack.

Truth and nothing but the truth, IFF

Don’t show off with stupid notation that 99% of people don’t need to know.

Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 20:02 utc | 196

General Gurulev offers a counterpoint to Kadyrov on the Liman fiasco (from the Slavyangrad telegram channel):
“General Gurulev on Liman:
Liman is abandoned.
I cannot explain this surrender from a military point of view. This is probably a milestone not only military, but also political, especially now.
This was not a short-lived battle, not only the forces of the LDNR were defending there, the unit of the 20th combined arms army and the 144th division, which worked there in full growth, was worthy of the defense. I have no complaints about the guys, they specifically fought.
It is not clear to me why for all the time they did not correctly assess the situation, did not strengthen the grouping. Yes, guys are heroes, but there is an elementary calculation of forces and means that no one has done correctly.
I fully agree with Ramzan Akhmatovich Kadyrov in this part.
The problem is not that the commander of the grouping of the Central Military District misjudged the situation. The problem is the general lies, the report of a good situation. This system goes from top to bottom.
We did not know the number of forces and means that were advancing on Liman? If they didn’t know, then where was intelligence? The 144th division worked perfectly there, army aviation worked perfectly, artillery did not stop working at all.
The whole problem is not on the ground, but on Frunzenskaya Embankment, where they still do not understand, do not own the situation. We need our own Kvashnin, who gave commands, wrote a directive, went to the trench to see the soldier to see how his task was being carried out. That is why we successfully completed the Second Chechen campaign.
Until something completely different appears in the General Staff, nothing will change. Everything else is a consequence of the policy pursued from there.”
This sounds more reasonable than pinning the entire blame on a single comander, who has several operational victoires to his name, at that.
Unfortunately, while they differ on the specifics of who is to blame and to what extent, all high level Russian military souces that have given statements (whether state affiliated like Kadyrov and Gurulev, or from the “private sector” like Prighozin and Strelkov) that I’m aware of point to systematic rot, incompetence, and nepotism. Those problems arent easily fixable, certainly not by throwing more machines or more meat to the frontlines.
Or maybe the solution is as simple as sending our resident Very Stable Geniuses like aristodemos, Billy Gruff et al. to explain to these highly decorated and experienced military men with proven track records of courage that they are really
a) Actually just concern trolls
b) Actually just Five Eyes/Mossad/CIA/NED/Keynesian/Rothshild/Rockefeller/MI56789/Generic Outlaw Empire operatives (paid, of course. In $BloOD MoOneyY$, no less)
c) Actually just idiots

Posted by: ForgotMyOriginalNick | Oct 1 2022 20:04 utc | 197

We are all just spectators to this war. I’ve heard numbers from 500 to 5000 for the number of LPR/DPR/Russians defending Lyman and numbers from 6000 – 20000 for the Ukrainians attacking.
The LPR/DPR/Russians now appear to have abandoned the town – or I should say the ruins of what once was a town.
Some say that Lyman was a key – somehow. yet while it was in Russian hands it did not seem to be a key to anything and with it in Ukrainian hands I’m not sure it will be a key to anything.
The Optics are certainly bad for Russia. Backing up looks bad. Even if it’s smart, being forced to back up makes one wonder why you put yourself in a position to have to back up in the first place. Backing up, makes soldiers wonder if you know what you are doing, if you are worthy to be commanding them.
It’s hard not to suspect there is a lot of rot in the Russian military – too many years of basically being a garrison force. This is a great opportunity for a house cleaning. Does the Putin government have that capability ?
Bottom line seems to be: Russia was defeated and had to backup. Defenders withdrew in good order and their defense inflicted significant losses on Ukraine. The fight continues. Ukraine continues to attack. With what purpose is unclear.

Posted by: Dan Farrand | Oct 1 2022 20:07 utc | 198

The entire thread is almost unreadable due to the usual suspects. Most of the lies and now, secondary followers are all falling over themselves trying to convince themselves, that somehow, thousands of dead Ukies equals a great moral victory. This particular thread is only for the DS posters today.

Posted by: Arcticman | Oct 1 2022 20:11 utc | 199

See, people like you, who think in 100% logical constructions, are usually wrong about everything.

You’re saying that if the gas pipe sabotage somehow ends up benefiting Russia, then by logical deduction, Russia is likely the one that sabotaged the gas pipe.
Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 20:02 utc | 197
Your method of ‘not 100%’ logical constructions is a novel idea. Write a book about it and your academic credentials there.
“You’re saying that if the gas pipe sabotage somehow ends up benefiting Russia, then by logical deduction, Russia is likely the one that sabotaged the gas pipe.”
No, that is not what I said. That’s the result of your novel take on solving puzzles.
I said, whoever would undertake such a completely irresponsible action would ONLY do so if they could get away with it. IFF.
“International community” impunity of USA is not the entire picture. US can easily dismiss public opinion in EU. But it can not afford to lose the capitalist class in EU. Nor would it like it if China and India (who very recently publicly signaled some “concerns and interests”, per Putin himself) along with the rest of ruling classes in “Global South” thinks US -irrational-. Because that was a completely irresponsible act.
To repeat: whoever did this, did so with the certainty that no one can ever pin on it! Otherwise, no one would do it, even though, they ALL have “plausible deniability” and “interest”.
This is a Judo move. This is Putin. It is actually the one time that he has lived up to his reputation.
To US: US must insure that China, India, South America, Brazil, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, or people they trust are with the investigation team every step of the way. If Russia doesn’t make unreasonable demands, let them on the team too!
And just pray and hope (which I think -may- not get answered) that Russia has used the mines that YOU had earlier planted when considering blowing it up! That would be the supreme Judo kick.

Posted by: unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 20:16 utc | 200