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October 1, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-162
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict. Please stick to the topic. The current open thread for other issues is here.
Comments
Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 1 2022 15:50 utc | 101
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 15:54 utc | 101 I can see zero strategic or even tactical value in this town right now or in the foreseeable future. Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102 Oh man, Kadyrov criticizing a commander being far away from his troops 🙂 Posted by: Membrum Virile | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 103 And from Russell Tg, a veteran with direct access to Donbass mil sources: Posted by: Kareem | Oct 1 2022 16:00 utc | 104 Yeah, but what does Russell know compared to couch potatoes commenting from 1000 km away *sarcasm* ? Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:07 utc | 105 It seems that, once again, the limitations of the Kremlin’s “slower is better” strategy stand exposed. Russia basically sat out the summer months, achieving little of substance after Severodonetsk/Lysichansk were liberated. The whole plan of depriving the AFU of fuel resources seems to have been quietly abandoned, to name just one issue. We were told not to worry, time is on Russia’s side, time is on Russia’s side: come winter, the Eurolemmings would start to feel the consequences of their own sanctions and some kind of deal would be made, after which happier times would slowly blossom. Well, that whole plan is out of the window now that Russia’s leverage is gone. Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Oct 1 2022 16:07 utc | 106 I’m going to wait for more news, the trolls are getting highly excited by the alleged fall of Lyman, but then they are highly excited by Zelensky photo ops in Vogue. Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 1 2022 16:11 utc | 107 In a rare show of unity, colonel Cassad, Kotenok, Sasha Kots, Strelkov all agree : this is a disaster. I have rarely seen Sasha Kots so subdued. Add in Kadyrov with in my view a very well-formulated critique, Russell Texas, the Wagner command… Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:19 utc | 108 Lol the denial is still strong Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:23 utc | 109 Kadyrov is a reckless lunatic for urging the use of nukes. We can all agree on that, right? Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:24 utc | 110 @Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102 Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 111 @alek_a #96:
I also don’t see how low-yield nukes can help, except as a last warning before using strategic ones, but it’s no longer unthinkable. You see, for some Russian generals and admirals—and I’m being generous when I use the qualifier “some”—it’s better to burn the entire humanity to the ground than to admit to Russian citizens and, first and foremost, to themselves that their main focus over the past 30 years has been building their stupid McMansions in Moscow Oblast, buying Toyota Land Cruisers for their daughters, and so on, while dismissing their critics—real patriots—as “incompetent amateurs” and “panic-mongers”. Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112 Follow this link and have the contents translated into English : https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/12148 Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 16:28 utc | 113 aristodemos@1124 CST Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 16:28 utc | 114 well, the lunatics are those who have provoked this war depite knowing their adversary has nukes Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 16:33 utc | 115 Mar 14, 2022: Vice President Harris calls U.S. commitment to NATO ‘ironclad’
Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2022 16:34 utc | 116 To assume every troll is paid is to vastly underestimate the power of relentless propaganda over the course of a century. Many have their brain wash on the rinse and repeat cycle into perpetuity. Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 1 2022 16:36 utc | 117 “Kadyrov is a reckless lunatic for urging the use of nukes. We can all agree on that, right? Posted by: Micron | Oct 1 2022 16:37 utc | 118 Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112 Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 16:38 utc | 119 @Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 15:57 utc | 102 Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 1 2022 16:39 utc | 120 @murgen23 #10 Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 16:43 utc | 121 Meloni’s first test, a squeeze from Putin: Posted by: Et Tu | Oct 1 2022 16:47 utc | 122 @S | Oct 1 2022 16:25 utc | 112
Fixed for accuracy. Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 16:49 utc | 123 P Walker
Lol have you missed when Ukraine bombed cities in Russia or Crimea? What was the response by Russia? No response at all! Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:50 utc | 124 “Well today Ukraine have taken Liman, they have bombed Donetsk but Russia did nothing as usual. ” Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 16:53 utc | 125 Zanon | Oct 1 2022 16:50 utc | 123 Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 16:56 utc | 126 @Micron #118, Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 16:56 utc | 127 >Well today Ukraine have taken Liman, they have bombed Donetsk but Russia did >nothing as usual. Posted by: marko | Oct 1 2022 17:03 utc | 128 Lyman is taken, the door to the rest of Donetsk is wide open! What is the matter with Russia? I am seriously beginning to suspect that Putin doesn’t want to win this war. But rather is waging it so it serves as cover for an otherwise hidden economic crisis affecting the West (of which Russia remains a crypto part). These endless crises beginning with 2008 have absurdly accelerated and are piling upon each other. The destruction of much the economies of the Eurozone (witness Truss’s kamikaze actions), suggest that indeed a global reset is taking place under the guise and shadow of an absurd serious of “coincidental” crises and events. Posted by: MallardB | Oct 1 2022 17:08 utc | 129 Pretzelattack @107 Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 17:12 utc | 130 A call for peace. Posted by: Republicofscotland | Oct 1 2022 17:16 utc | 131 “Another such victory over the Romans, and we are undone” Pyrrhus Posted by: Exile | Oct 1 2022 17:18 utc | 132 Trolls everywhere today. No actual information, just quasi-hysterical opinions about the importance of equipment or how vital an abandoned Russian position is. It reminds me of the endless debates about whether Mohammad Ali could beat Joe diMaggio. The probability is that Kiev is adapting as tactical information arrives from NATO, using less lethally self-destructive tactics of engagement like night-fighting, continuing to terrorise civilians wherever possible, and throwing every resource into PR victories before winter. Russia has made rational but uninspiring decisions which reflect their manpower limitations. However the larger battle is for international credibility and unless the benefits of mobilisation arrive promptly it will degrade confidence in Putin’s leadership. If Putin can fix his manpower issue, there is no doubt that Russian forces will outfight what’s left of Kiev’s troops. The real tragedy is that the more Kiev ‘wins’, the more bodies it piles on the fields. Until then, we can only pray that Europe suddenly produces a few genuine statesmen like De Gaulle. The existing ones are poshlost. Posted by: tPaine | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 133 Joe Biden in my opinion saying look we know you know we blew up your pipelines with aid of other Nato terrorists, but hey you’d better not attack any Nato member or else, but if you want to you can do something really, really nasty to Ukraine as it isn’t a Nato member. Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 134 “Another such victory over the Romans, and we are undone” Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 17:21 utc | 135 It’s pretty clear the USA now views NATO as past it’s prime. Likely just maintaining the charade to not spook out Europeans. Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:28 utc | 136 @130 republicofscotland Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 17:30 utc | 137 One the one hand we have the strong speech by Putin. On the other hands Ukrainian advances – even at enormous costs – at the battlefield. Seems Russia is not quite ready to take on NATO and its proxy forces. Many young people do not seem to really be willing to make sacrifices for the Russian state as it is at present. Posted by: Ronald Portier | Oct 1 2022 17:31 utc | 138 they’re forcing European industry out of Europe and into the USA. Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 17:32 utc | 139 I am promoting myself to Field Marshall and taking command immediately. Out of my way! And then I woke up. I would need to see casualty rates for the Ukes involved in the Lyman attack, in order to decide who had the best strategy. If the Russians are temporarily withdrawing in order to massacre the Ukes, then it’s a sensible temporary withdrawal. If not, then it’s a screw up. What’s the timeline on those 300,000 troops called up? Posted by: Leroy | Oct 1 2022 17:34 utc | 140 Interesting analysis from Alexander Mercouris
Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 17:35 utc | 141 This offensive is proving much more resilient than initially predicted. What is going on? Russia is not supposed to lose towns. They did not resource the SMO properly in the first place. They need to fix this now before people get annoyed at this miscalculation. Posted by: Kaiama | Oct 1 2022 17:37 utc | 142 salvo
Jesus, wake up for crying out loud. When did Russia respond to multiple attacks in Russia? When did they respond to Izyum? When did they respond to Crimea? Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 17:37 utc | 143 Posted by: tPaine | Oct 1 2022 17:19 utc | 132 Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 17:38 utc | 144 To assume every troll is paid is to vastly underestimate the power of relentless propaganda over the course of a century. Many have their brain wash on the rinse and repeat cycle into perpetuity. Posted by: Babel-17 | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 145 @Tom UK Posted by: xiao pignouf | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 146 https://tomluongo.me/2022/09/29/the-curious-whodunit-of-nordstreams-1-and-2/ Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 17:40 utc | 147 Posted by: aristodemos | Oct 1 2022 17:12 utc | 129 Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 1 2022 17:42 utc | 148 Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 15:45 utc | 92 Posted by: WJ | Oct 1 2022 17:45 utc | 149 Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 17:32 utc | 138
But the target audience in Europe is still ideologically trapped inside Atlanticist thought and the idea of stepping out of it fills them with doubt and dread. Safer not to rock the boat. Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 150 I am going to guess that NATO is using and focusing all available precision guided artillery munitions they are giving the Ukrainians coupled with excellent satellite imagery and it is throwing Russian lines into chaos. Posted by: circumspect | Oct 1 2022 17:54 utc | 151 @P Walker #122:
Not at all. NATO technical intelligence—electronic, radar, satellite, cyber (social networks, messengers, email)—performs great. NATO communications perform great. NATO logistics perform well. NATO operational command performs well, quickly adapting to the situation. Neither of those things can be said about Russia’s MoD (except for electronic/radar intelligence, which seem to work well). That means that U.S. generals have done their job and earned their McMansions, while Russian generals haven’t. The proof is in the pudding. Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 17:56 utc | 152 @P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 149 Posted by: too scents | Oct 1 2022 18:07 utc | 153 Logistically, in the current econonmic climate especially, even the full mobilization of all combined NATO members would still have difficulty matching the industrial munitions output and certainly the energy output necessary to win total war in Europe. Posted by: Tgl | Oct 1 2022 18:07 utc | 154 They’re literally laughing at the Russian Armed forces and taunting them over the number they killed or captured : Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 18:09 utc | 155 “Not at all. NATO technical intelligence—electronic, radar, satellite, cyber (social networks, messengers, email)—performs great. NATO communications perform great. NATO logistics perform well. NATO operational command performs well, quickly adapting to the situation. Neither of those things can be said about Russia’s MoD (except for electronic/radar intelligence, which seem to work well). That means that U.S. generals have done their job and earned their McMansions, while Russian generals haven’t. The proof is in the pudding.” Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 18:14 utc | 156 Source: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27452.5/4656028/ Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 157 The head of the German Defense Ministry arrived on an unannounced visit to Odessa and promised Kiev to deliver IRIS-T air defense systems in the coming days Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 18:18 utc | 158 Posted by: P Walker | Oct 1 2022 17:50 utc | 149 Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 18:21 utc | 159 I think there is one simple insight that today brought. Posted by: alek_a | Oct 1 2022 18:25 utc | 160 @Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 158 Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 18:36 utc | 161 Again, we are talking about 700 killed servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But this does not stop the Kyiv authorities, does not make them think. They introduce new reserves into the battle and continue the offensive in these directions. Most stubbornly in the Krasny Liman area. Posted by: MimiMo | Oct 1 2022 18:37 utc | 162
Bloody hell, they’re talking to each other! It’s like that Journey to the Microcosm youtube channel where they collect pond scum onto a microscope slide and see the tiny microbes interact and even evolve together 😀 Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 18:38 utc | 163 During military history Russian army even when winning has almost always suffered haevier losses than enemy. For instance in Winter War (1939-40) with most realistic numbers 26,000 Finns deceased whole according database studied by Pavel Petrov Soviet military lost 167,976 soldiers deceased. Posted by: Matias | Oct 1 2022 18:42 utc | 164 @163 MimiMo Posted by: Tom UK | Oct 1 2022 18:48 utc | 165 “But how can we be sure Russian estimates are accurate? There is lack of proof for these large numbers – no pictures or videos of even 1/10 of that amount. ” Posted by: salvo | Oct 1 2022 18:48 utc | 166 @Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 18:17 utc | 158 Posted by: MiniMo | Oct 1 2022 18:51 utc | 167 How is it so difficult to understand that 7-8 waves of mobilisation have given Ukraine nummerical superiority? Combine that with what? 80-100 billion Dollars worth of equipment and NATO intelligence and you get results. War is a numbers game. Ukraine knew where Russian forces were thinned out and struck there. For Ukraine, 1k-5k losses dont matter, they have enough mobilized. Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 18:52 utc | 168 Posted by: David G Horsman | Oct 1 2022 15:50 utc | 101 Posted by: Unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:53 utc | 169 @163 MimiMo Posted by: MiniMo | Oct 1 2022 18:57 utc | 170 p.s. Posted by: unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 18:58 utc | 172 Haha Ukraine just struck Crimea again! Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 18:59 utc | 173 All these fuckers, creamed us off. Nortel took the remnants of my ICL Pension scheme, and cos I have an unusual name, found my address in London. Posted by: tonyopmoc | Oct 1 2022 19:00 utc | 174 One Russian soldier (on average) has never been equal to 2 western. In fact it has been the opposite. Ukrainian army is another story but it’s hardly possible that Russian soldier is better than 1 to 1. Now when there are much more Ukies in large frontline zone and high class western intelligence material backing they don’t have huge problems to slowly grind low motivated Russian soldiers. In modern warfare there are mostly 5-15 soldiers per km2. We are far from old time 200-500 per km2. That’s why personal losses have not been as high as high claims of both sides are suggesting. Posted by: Tramonte | Oct 1 2022 19:01 utc | 175 Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog on supply problems (September 28, 2022):
Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:05 utc | 176 One Russian soldier (on average) has never been equal to 2 western. In fact it has been the opposite. Ukrainian army is another story but it’s hardly possible that Russian soldier is better than 1 to 1. Now when there are much more Ukies in large frontline zone and high class western intelligence material backing they don’t have huge problems to slowly grind low motivated Russian soldiers. In modern warfare there are mostly 5-15 soldiers per km2. We are far from old time 200-500 per km2. That’s why personal losses have not been as high as high claims of both sides are suggesting. Posted by: Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 19:07 utc | 177 is liman still in russia? or crimea? i think putin better organize some new music party and great military games. western leaders are walking around in odessa and promise shiny new weapons. how on earth 40.000 ukros walking around freely? and the ROW support is on the thin line already…i know i know, slow is better, winter is coming, it’s part of the 5D chess, blah, blah, blah…in tommorow’s news: russia is retreat from moscow in better fortified position in orderly manner… Posted by: denazi | Oct 1 2022 19:13 utc | 178 @ Arne Hartmann | Oct 1 2022 19:07 utc | 178 Posted by: james | Oct 1 2022 19:16 utc | 179 Lordy, the shills are out in force today. What’s being covered up? Posted by: Meh | Oct 1 2022 19:16 utc | 180 Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog writes (September 30, 2022):
Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:23 utc | 181 Source: https://www.vesti.ru/article/2969316 Posted by: Oblomovka daydream | Oct 1 2022 19:24 utc | 182 @ Tramonte | Oct 1 2022 19:01 utc | 176 Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2022 19:24 utc | 183 Russian leadership is pretty pathetic. We all knew in this blog of simple joes for WEEKS that Lyman was about to fall. So it might have made more sense to do an orderly evacuation. Posted by: Comandante | Oct 1 2022 19:25 utc | 184 Whatever you promoters of western propaganda want for us to think, fine! But when Biden gies through the Western talking points, it all sounds like let’s go all out into the Chaos! And you propagandists as well, who live in a dream reality, which you take it after a life time of study we will swallow. What is that chaos? Who can say yet? Posted by: Geoff | Oct 1 2022 19:29 utc | 185
Fabulous logic. Brilliant. Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 19:29 utc | 186 Latest from Andrei Martyanov Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 19:31 utc | 187 Posted by: Ronald Portier | Oct 1 2022 17:31 utc | 139 Posted by: Lemming | Oct 1 2022 19:33 utc | 188 @Oblamovka daydream #183, it’s a little weird isn’t it? Lapin took control of that front very recently and it clearly was in rough shape before he got there. In general I get the impression that Russia’s lines are just too thin especially after reinforcing Kherson, so maybe defending Lyman was possible but only at the cost of making a critical weakness elsewhere. And I think their rear areas are *very* lightly defended after seeing what happened in Kharkiv where one breakthrough let AFU run riot through a huge territory. Russia is desperate to not see that happen in Luhansk so whatever depth their defense has will be preserved at least until mobiks can get parked in the trenches. Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 1 2022 19:36 utc | 189
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/11391 Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2022 19:44 utc | 190 Reuters is setting up the false flag nuke event Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 1 2022 19:46 utc | 191 Meh @181: “Lordy, the shills are out in force today. What’s being covered up?” Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 19:47 utc | 192 Russian Telegram channel Hard Blog on the latest developments (October 1, 2022):
Posted by: S | Oct 1 2022 19:48 utc | 193 Down South
That is disgusting, so Liman was only held with volunteers! Shameful behavior by Russia, they have missiles they can use every day but they send volunteers! to defend against Nato armed ukrainian forces. Posted by: Zanon | Oct 1 2022 19:50 utc | 194 @ William Gruff | Oct 1 2022 19:47 utc | 193 with the view of the MoA bar….grin Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 1 2022 19:56 utc | 195
See, people like you, who think in 100% logical constructions, are usually wrong about everything. I went to university (computer science and math) with people like you. It’s a bloodbath. Autistic doesn’t begin to describe it.
Don’t show off with stupid notation that 99% of people don’t need to know. Posted by: Jusses | Oct 1 2022 20:02 utc | 196 General Gurulev offers a counterpoint to Kadyrov on the Liman fiasco (from the Slavyangrad telegram channel): Posted by: ForgotMyOriginalNick | Oct 1 2022 20:04 utc | 197 We are all just spectators to this war. I’ve heard numbers from 500 to 5000 for the number of LPR/DPR/Russians defending Lyman and numbers from 6000 – 20000 for the Ukrainians attacking. Posted by: Dan Farrand | Oct 1 2022 20:07 utc | 198 The entire thread is almost unreadable due to the usual suspects. Most of the lies and now, secondary followers are all falling over themselves trying to convince themselves, that somehow, thousands of dead Ukies equals a great moral victory. This particular thread is only for the DS posters today. Posted by: Arcticman | Oct 1 2022 20:11 utc | 199 See, people like you, who think in 100% logical constructions, are usually wrong about everything. Posted by: unfortunately | Oct 1 2022 20:16 utc | 200 |
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