@all
The provider on who’s servers this blog runs had a several hours outage today.
I do not know what happened but I am sure it wasn’t an attack of any kind.
b.

Posted by: b | Oct 2 2022 16:40 utc | 3

@ b #3 about the outage
I am on the West Coast US and typepad sites were not available for almost 24 hours. I ended up having the typepad site up and kept klicking on their HelpCenter link that was getting the same error I was getting trying to get to MoA pages.
I would like to read more about this “not an attack” after the dust settles a bit.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2022 16:51 utc | 5

(Haven’t seen it posted yet here, if so my apologies)
Moscow designated UN Secretary-General Guterres as “an instrument of propaganda and pressure on Member States” per representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova
Translated with https://translate.yandex.com
We drew attention to a series of biased evaluative statements by the UN Secretary General A.Guterres on September 29 regarding the will of the population of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, as well as the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. In particular, the Secretary General noted that “the decision on the annexation of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions will not have legal force and deserves condemnation.”
We remind you that Article 97 of the UN Charter assigns to the Secretary-General the role of the “chief administrative Officer of the Organization”. The relevant functions do not give the Managing Director of the UN Secretariat the right to make biased political statements on behalf of the entire Organization. Nor is such a person authorized to interpret the norms of the Charter and documents of the General Assembly, including the 1970 Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation between States in Accordance with the UN Charter.
We would like to emphasize that Article 100 of the UN Charter requires the staff of the UN Secretariat to observe the principle of impartiality, including the need to “refrain from any actions that could affect their position as international officials responsible only to the Organization.” In fact, the exact opposite is happening.
In this case, A. Guterres, obviously, not only exceeded his authority, but actually solidified with the collective West, again resorting to a selective approach in the interpretation of the unfolding events.
…
Forgetting about the unanimous decisions of the UN Security Council, the Secretary-General acts without hesitation on the basis of politicized and non-consensual decisions of the General Assembly, gives illegal instructions to his subordinates on this shaky basis. At the same time, they ignore our exhaustive explanations that the steps taken by Russia are carried out in strict accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
Against this background, we are outraged by the silence on the part of A. Guterres of the ongoing illegal US military invasion of Syria, which is accompanied by the occupation of part of its territory and the plundering of the natural resources of this country. Not a word of condemnation was said by the Secretary-General in connection with shameful colonial and neocolonial practices, including the situation around the island of Mayotte and the Malvinas Islands, which remain under the colonial rule of France and Great Britain, respectively. The leadership of the UN Secretariat remained silent even when the collective West was “manually” implementing a plan to grant Kosovo “independence” after its illegal military invasion of Yugoslavia in violation of the UN Charter. Then even a referendum was not needed: Western countries considered that a declaration of independence adopted unilaterally by a local government body with a clear excess of its powers would be quite enough. We remind you that in written explanations sent to the International Court of Justice, many of our Western colleagues stated that “international law does not prohibit the proclamation of independence.”
In this context, the UN Secretary General’s direct attacks on the fundamental right of the peoples of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to self–determination is another example of blatant double standards.
We consider it unacceptable that the UN Secretary-General has turned into an instrument of propaganda and pressure on Member States at a time when he should be guided by the UN Charter in its entirety.

Posted by: xor | Oct 2 2022 17:08 utc | 7

From Zuerst! Deutsches Nachrichtenmagazin

Habeck practices “stop thief”: “The German economy is threatened with permanent damage”
What the Green Economics and Climate Protection Minister is ignoring: above all, his own climate and sanctions policy has made a significant contribution to the explosion in energy prices and the looming energy crisis. It is not for nothing that Habeck has recently been confronted with calls for his resignation from outraged citizens. (rk)

Read the full article:
https://zuerst.de/2022/10/02/habeck-praktiziert-haltet-den-dieb-der-deutschen-wirtschaft-drohen-dauerschaeden/

Posted by: António Ferrão | Oct 2 2022 17:09 utc | 9

Many thanks to b for his courage and brilliant analysis, for providing this great website, and for being a true voice in the wilderness. The destruction of the Nordstream pipelines is truly an evil and despicable act, which reveals the depths of the savagery of the neocons and neoliberal ruling Washington. I fear that worse will follow.

Posted by: Perimetr | Oct 2 2022 17:24 utc | 11

Rumors of a Lehman style bank collapse are circulating. Credit Suisse has been named.
There are some serious rumors doing the rounds about a major bank failure
Is this another hectare of rumors in the vast plantation? Sort of like the coup against Chinese President Xi Jinping rumor? I get a sense that the capital markets will slowly unravel over the next few years.

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 2 2022 17:27 utc | 13

Diolch byth! Newyddion da. Glad to see ‘The MOON’ back – Cyfarchion Greetings from ‘near Cardiff’ Wales.

Posted by: Geraint ap Iorwerth | Oct 2 2022 17:36 utc | 15

Brazil
Many predict Lula will not get the 50% needed to clinch victory today.

Posted by: migueljose | Oct 2 2022 17:40 utc | 17

? @ 14
So while Bernard did a fine job of laying out all of the circumstantial ‘facts’ of this case, he didn’t make a conclusion either. He’ll leave that job to his partner in Anti-US Empire leftism Escobar and the imaginations of so many rightfully disillusioned with the US.
Many sit in prison based on circumstantial evidence. These guys love a US that does not exist anymore and even existed only in part in times past. I think Russia would be smart to stand down on this issue. Let the bullshit play out and see where it goes, then act accordingly.
Lets see what is left on the seafloor. All the classic bullshit and cover ups will be tossed about. I can here the next line, Russia pigged the line with explosive charges.

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 2 2022 17:47 utc | 19

A report from Peter Hartley of Rice University on the 2021 Texas Freeze grid failure.
Note Rice University and the Baker Institute are one of the epicenters of Climate Doom, so this cannot be called a “fossil fueled” report.
ERCOT Froze in February 2021 – What Happened? Why Did It Happen? Can it Happen Again?

[Summary]
• wind generators,
• thermal generators,
• natural gas suppliers,
• Texas opposition to inter-connections,
• ERCOT management, and
• ERCOT market rules.
“Each of these could fairly share some blame, but none was solely responsible.”
…
A total of 263 power plants within ERCOT experienced at least partial outages at some point between February 10 and 21, with 95 plants, accounting for 14.6 GW, experiencing a 100% shutdown. The peak capacity unavailability was over 40 GW on February 15-16. Natural gas and wind each accounted for about 41% of the peak unavailable capacity, while coal, solar and nuclear accounted for the remaining 14%, 3% and 2%, respectively. Excluding existing outages, ERCOT listed weather (53%), equipment issues (14%) and fuel limitations (12%) as the top three causes of the derated capacity. (pp. 9-10)
[Note that the above is stated 41% of capacity was unavailable for EACH of wind and natural gas. So wind failures were absolutely a major factor]
…
All types of generation were compromised. For wind and solar, 139 and 23 units, respectively, experienced outages or derates during the freeze. Eight coal-fired power plants experienced derates or outages, losing a total of 5.6 GW. The partial outage at the South Texas nuclear power plant was caused
by low steam generator levels from the loss of two feedwater pumps. One hydro plant and 9 battery storage facilities also experienced derates, although the lost capacity from these plants was minimal relative to the magnitude of overall outages. (p. 10)
…
According to the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report for
ERCOT published December 16, 2020, solar resources are rated at 80% of nameplate capacity during the summer, but only 7% during the winter. Wind resources in the Texas panhandle, the coast and other locations are rated at 29%, 61% and 19%, respectively, during the summer, and 32%, 43% and 19%, respectively, during the winter. The seasonal deratings, applied to assess “likely” resource availability, are based on the typical solar irradiance and wind velocities in each season and location. (pp. 10-11)
[Note here the winter/summer “Expected” production from wind and solar. This is why 100% alternative energy electricity production is IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT CHEAP MASS STORAGE.]
…
Natural gas capacity suffered the most outages and derates during the freeze, yet generated significantly more power than is typically seen during February…. The pattern prior to February 8 and after February 19 typifies February in ERCOT. Despite the outages …, roughly twice as much gas was used to generate electricity during the days running up to and during the winter freeze. Unfortunately, the grid needed more. This highlights the importance of “resilience” in energy systems, or the ability to respond when needed at all times and under all circumstances. (p. 11)
[Or in other words, natural gas plants did fail but overall, natural gas generated electricity was MORE than normal. Combine with the above wind shortfall, however, the grid was doomed]
…
From 2011–2021, responsive reserve capacity increased from 1062 MWs to 1570 MWs, that is, from 2.4% to 2.6% of forecasted peak load. The events of February 2021 suggest that this needs to be increased, and its operational capability warranted. According to ERCOT’s capacity, demand and reserves reports, the winter reserve margin was 72% of expected load in the winter of 2011, but had fallen to 43.2% for the winter of 2021. Some have called for adding a capacity market in ERCOT to improve reliability. However, a brief examination of historical electric disturbance events across the entire United States does not reveal that capacity markets are positively correlated to reliability. We suggest that this should be carefully examined before dramatically changing market structure in ERCOT. (pp. 19-20)
[As I have alluded to before: the massive increase in solar PV and wind was accompanied by taking down large capacity of fossil fuels. The 72% to 43.2% reserve capacity decrease (a 40% fall) is 100% due to that]
…
All this stated, the reason for wind’s underperformance during the winter storm, as opposed to other times of year, was only important for grid stability because other resources were also not available. It is well known by grid operators and power market participants that wind varies frequently, so planning should ensure the availability of other flexible resources that can respond quickly and reliably to maintain supply when wind is unavailable. As the fraction of supply coming from non-dispatchable resources increases, the social value of reliability, the value of lost load and demand flexibility become more important issues that must be addressed and internalized by market participants, regulators and ultimately consumers. A resilient, reliable electricity system requires resources to be appropriately priced to ensure adequate levels of investment in all types of capacity. None of this means that we should not invest in wind. It does raise questions, however, about what drives investment in various forms of generation capacity (i.e.- subsidies, mandates, commercial returns, environmental preference, etc.) and whether capital is being appropriately directed, but that is beyond the scope of this paper (p. 25)
[Note this statement is accurate: it isn’t that there is NO role for wind. The issue is what that role should be – how large, how much subsidies, how focus on wind (and solar PV) detracts from focus on other generation, reserve, stability and other forms of grid requirements.]
…
… a careful analysis of reserve margins as intermittent capacity expands is warranted. Currently Texas is #1 in the nation in terms of existing wind capacity. It is also #1 in terms of planned capacity additions for wind and solar, and #2 in the nation for planned battery capacity additions. However, there is little-to-no planned capacity addition for other forms of dispatchable generation. This could become an issue for reliability. For example, wind generation in Texas is at seasonal maximum in the fall, while demand is a maximum in the summer. Battery installations currently planned are short duration and will convey significant benefits for frequency management. However, during events such as the winter freeze of February 2021, or even more regular occurrences of meeting peak summer demands when the wind is not available, other types of backup capacity are needed. If the load growth in ERCOT over the last 20 years continues, as is projected, resource inadequacy could become a more frequent issue. Hence, factors such as the social value of reliability, the value of lost load and increased demand management need to be more actively discussed and integrated in market rule-makings so that they can be appropriately priced to ensure adequate levels of different types of investment. (p. 26)
[As I have repeatedly noted: Texas is actually the largest alternative energy/solar PV/wind electricity generation – as percentage of overall electricity generation- in the entire United States.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 2 2022 17:58 utc | 21

Hundreds of thousands of Europeans dying due to their energy crisis this winter?
Notable mostly because it is appearing on TheHill.com
Europeans Risk Death By Cold For Green Folly And We Could Be Next

Germany, for example, spent $150 billion on renewable energy sources in their own version of the Green New Deal, only to find itself with some of the highest energy prices in the world and wind power production plummeting by a quarter in early 2021. By rushing a transition away from nuclear power and fossil fuels, former Chancellor Angela Merkel and her successor, Olaf Scholz, made the country nearly dependent on a hostile Russia for years.
At the same time, Germany’s decision to dismantle its nuclear power plants after Japan’s 2011 Fukushima disaster led to not only a reliance on Russian fossil fuels but also extensive (often Russian) coal burning and an increase of carbon emissions. The nation is now attempting to backtrack on its earlier decision and keep its nuclear plants on while reopening coal plants.
…
Slavish commitment to green politics, coupled with foolish idealism, will cost lives this winter. Britain alone suffers more than 28,000 excess winter deaths a year. About 200,000 such deaths occur in all of Europe each year, with mortality increasing by 1.5 percent for every 1-degree Celsius decrease. A bitterly cold winter and a sharp decline of constant heating could potentially trigger a six-figure increase in excess deaths continent-wide. In particular, areas with a high urban population (less able to provide wood as a backup heating source) or especially high dependence on Russian heating oil — such as France, Britain, or Germany — will be at much higher risk.

Pray for a mild/warm winter… for the next several years…

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 2 2022 18:10 utc | 23

@c1ue | Oct 2 2022 18:10 utc | 23

Germany’s decision to dismantle its nuclear power plants after Japan’s 2011 Fukushima disaster

I have often wondered if that disaster was all natural and if so, why was Germany so terrified by that it decided to dismantle its nuclear power plants?

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 18:16 utc | 25

@António Ferrão | Oct 2 2022 17:09 utc | 9
The irony or should I say cynical twist is that it will be the German Green’s policies that will require reopening the dertiest coal and brown coal plants as well as the nuclear plants. Essentially the ones voted in to “save” and improve the climate and environment will be the ones increasing climate chaos.

Posted by: xor | Oct 2 2022 18:28 utc | 27

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 2 2022 17:47 utc | 19
re…Lets see what is left on the seafloor. All the classic bullshit and cover ups will be tossed about. I can here [sic] the next line, Russia pigged the line with explosive charges. …
You speak the simple truth. That is acute analysis with huge insight.
To witness a ruptured pipe is nearly unthinkable. The actual sight will scream sabotage because the piping cannot, by itself, blow-out [or blow-in]. There must be external source of energy for that to occur, applied deliberately in the case of multiple + simultaneous + different locations + different build-constructions.
I worked for years at large NuclearGeneratorStation amidst hi-pressure steam pipes; up-close and uncomfortable [electrical support during bi-annual fuel-rod exchange].

Posted by: chu teh | Oct 2 2022 18:35 utc | 29

RUSSIA BLEW UP AMERICA’S PIPELINE!
In less than a week Western narrative management has turned the obvious fact that Americans destroyed Russia’s pipeline into “Russia destroyed America’s pipeline”.

Russians push baseless theory blaming US for burst pipeline – The Washington Post (AP, archive)
The Kremlin and Russian state media are aggressively pushing a baseless conspiracy theory blaming the United States for damage to natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in what analysts said Friday is another effort to split the U.S. and its European allies.
The Russian position is also reverberating on social media forums popular with American conservatives and far-right groups.
NATO leaders believe the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines between Russia and Germany is the result of sabotage. NATO has refrained from identifying a suspect pending an investigation into the damage.
Russia began blaming the U.S. quickly after the damage was reported Monday night. On Friday, speaking at a ceremony to annex four Ukrainian regions, Russian President Vladimir Putin said “Anglo-Saxons” in the West were behind the “terror attacks” but did not specify any nations.
***
Seen in that context, the conspiracy theory alleging U.S. responsibility for the pipeline damage is consistent, the researchers concluded.
“The central theme is that this is a “false-flag” operation, an American plot designed to convince Europe that it was a Russian attack intended to signal the vulnerability of Europe’s energy supplies,” the researchers wrote.

All prima facie evidence says that Americans blew up the Nord Stream pipelines. They had the motive, the means, the publicly stated intention, and were last seen fleeing from the crime scene. Diverting from where the prima facie evidence leads needs a strong logical argument. Usually such dissent takes the form of a conspiracy theory – unknown people secretly planned and executed something we know nothing of.
The Western claim that Russia destroyed their own pipeline is by definition a conspiracy theory. It alleges that Russia executed a false-flag attack on their own pipeline, in order to accuse Americans of it’s destruction. Previously the media has considered all claims of false-flag attacks as fake news. What changed now?
***
Two sources on Western narrative control, the first from Telegram:

“Pentagon says US was absolutely not involved in Nord Stream pipeline gas leak incident.”
Now, with this denial as a source, the fact checkers can leap into action and pump out articles declaring it a stone-cold fact.
Then the social media and tech giant censorship algorithms kick in and start censoring everyone claiming otherwise, based on the fact checkers, while hyping up news companies publishing wild, warmongering speculation.
It is an efficient narrative control process involving hundreds of thousands of people working with unlimited budgets; it is the most effective propaganda machine ever created.
https://t.me/mediatricks/2407

The second source is about a German document leak:

Document leak: How the federal government is working on a “narrative synchronization” on the Ukraine war
An internal document from the federal government was sent exclusively to the NachDenkSeiten. We were able to verify the paper and we also know the identity of the whistleblower. The document gives an illuminating insight into the extent of the horizontal and vertical structures of, there is no other way to put it, federal German state propaganda, in particular with regard to the official involvement of the media (e.g. Spiegel and Stern), western social media corporations, educational institutions and the so-called “fact checkers”. Even elementary school children are being targeted. All of this results in the concerted attempt by the federal government to bring information into line with one another. By Florian Warweg.

In the document, Russian “disinformation” is understood to mean everything that corresponds to a reproduction of the official Russian position.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 2 2022 18:55 utc | 31

@UncleTom | Oct 2 2022 19:01 utc | 32
Go to RT
business/563912-nord-stream-pipes-restored/
Nord Stream pipelines can be restored – Moscow

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 19:06 utc | 33

b,
Minor error in your weekly review. The (incredibly surprising) article calling out American stupidity on Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan is at The Nation not Salon, which actually makes it even more stunning.
Also glad to see you weren’t subject to a DDOS attack last night. I asked the question on your most recent Twitter post (at the time) but it was probably after midnight in Germany.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 2 2022 19:10 utc | 35

The Baker Institute is heavily funded by fossil fuel interests and provides convenient cover to them. Rice is a tiny university in urban Houston. Enrollment cannot possibly be above 10,000 undergrad and post-grad combined. I went there on a music scholarship in the 90s before switching to engineering. The MOB is the best college marching band in the USA. In any case, their declaration of going “carbon neutral” is virtually meaningless due to the small size.
https://www.desmog.com/2016/01/10/rice-university-s-baker-institute-and-academic-cover-it-provides-fossil-fuel-interests/

If, as it declares, the institute is led by data-driven empirical analyses and disinterested perspectives, why are so many of its energy conclusions tilted in favor of fossil fuels?
One possible explanation may be traced right to the head of the pyramid. In his storied diplomatic career, director Djerejian had long stints in the Middle East, where he gained deep insight into the geopolitics of oil. His 2006 book, Danger and Opportunity, a professional autobiography about his many years in the Foreign Service, devotes an entire chapter to questions of energy. In these pages, Djerejian takes the growing global demand for oil as a given.
He argues, “[M]aintaining the free flow of oil to world markets” is a critical national concern to the United States as well as a “global one.” Furthermore, since privately held American corporations are “more efficient and productive” than a potential government run energy company, the government should, amongst others, focus on promoting business-friendly “bilateral and multilateral trade and investment treaties such as WTO, NAFTA, and the Energy Charter.”
It is, in essence, a familiar mantra of neoliberal capitalism, applied to the fossil fuel industry, where the state is expected to work in the service of increasing corporate oil and gas profits.
While the last page and a half of the chapter is dedicated to climate change, it reads more like lip service than a serious attempt to boldly face the role of the industry in perpetuating climate chaos. Djerejian vaguely calls here for “promoting alternative energy sources and new conservation technologies” as a “top national priority,” while “hydrocarbons, including oil and gas, will remain the backbone of global energy consumption for at least several decades to come.”
But Djerejian conveniently left out of the book some important personal facts. At the time of its publication – and, in effect, through nearly his entire tenure as head of the Baker Institute – he has served as Director on the Boards of major fossil fuel corporations.

The whole article goes into much further detail.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 2 2022 19:19 utc | 37

The English did the pipeline job, Biden is just their stupid Irish patsy. “I may be Irish but I am not stupid”—–Joe Biden. sure Joe whatever you say.

Posted by: Robert Browning | Oct 2 2022 19:24 utc | 39

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 19:28 utc | 40
If you can highlight anything that the author I cited gets wrong, by all means have at it. I’m very familiar with the neocon think tank that masquerades as “The Baker Institute” as well as Rice University and the real power brokers who fund and direct it.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 2 2022 19:30 utc | 41

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 19:28 utc | 40
P.S. I’m as much a hater of Bell-end-crap as most here are, but that isn’t to say they haven’t gotten a few things right over the years. It’s their major pro-NATO attention grabbing hot garbage and neolib/neocon slant that has soiled their reputation.
I’m unaware of any examples of desmog getting something *THAT* big *THAT* wrong. Or just a veiled smear?

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Oct 2 2022 19:33 utc | 43

@Seneschal | Oct 2 2022 19:32 utc | 42

In short, I think Merkel did not want to alienate the environmental-sensitive wing of the ruling class and besides neutralise the Greens, which had risen sharply in the polls after Fukushima.

Thank you for a well formulated glimpse into “the German mind”, I really appreciated it. It seems to me, however, the greens neutralised Merkel.
I still wonder about what happened in Japan. I guess I will always do.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 19:40 utc | 45

@Norwegian #25
Fukushima is natural in the sense that the causal event was a tsunami, but it is also true both that those plants had been kept running way past their original life spans and that these were pretty much literally first generation nuclear plants.
But it was enough to give the Green propagandists the excuse – all over the world – to shut down nuclear power plants.
That’s why the last 3 nuclear power plants in Germany are still not obviously going to be kept on despite an enormous energy crisis.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 2 2022 19:47 utc | 47

Yes, very happy MoA is accessible again after 24+ hours of what was a global outage given messages from other barflies sent to me at VK.
Alastair Crooke again asks the pertinent question with his al-Mayadeen article, “Will Biden know when to stop?”. From the middle:

That is to say that since the go-slow nature of the Russian offensive was intended essentially to minimize the impact on civilian lives and infrastructure — and also to give the parties plenty of time in order to reach the conclusion that negotiations were required before events turned existential, for one side or the other.
Unfortunately, the propaganda flooding the media has been so successful – touching on neuralgic and deeply layered currents of Russophobia – that western leaders have become hostage to this contrived ‘staging’ of a ‘panicked, faltering and weak Russia’.
Thus, against such an adverse backdrop, the Kremlin finally opted to incorporate culturally-Russian parts of Ukraine into Russia.
It is a gamble. The force of logic here is clear: The conflict then would either have to cease, as Russia commits to defending those annexed territories as ‘Mother Russia’ — a game-changing shift that implies irresistible force mounted against Kiev, were it to further assault these territories. Or alternatively, the West must escalate further.

I agree with Crooke’s formulation and believe the Russians also expect the latter to occur and are getting ready. His SCF essay has yet to be published. I do expect it to expand on the above theme. And it appears that some missed what he wrote last week about Russia being in the vanguard.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 2 2022 19:55 utc | 49

@c1ue | Oct 2 2022 19:47 utc | 47
Yes I obviously know the that the causal event was a tsunami. I also know the cause of the tsunami is said to be an earthquake or a sudden shift between tectonic plates. That may be so, but I do wonder. What a coincidence it damaged a primary source of energy for Japan and even Germany, countries that are not allowed to compete with the US. Given what has recently happened with NS1&2 I still wonder, but what do I know.
For sure the Green propagandists used it as you say.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2022 19:56 utc | 51

@45/Norwegian.
What happened in Japan WAS NOT natural. Read Dmitry Orlov.

Posted by: Aleji | Oct 2 2022 20:06 utc | 53

UncleTom @ 36
Pipeline and Hazardous Materials
Safety Administration
Although the root cause of the failure has yet to be confirmed, preliminary evidence suggests that an isolated pressure safety valve created an over pressure situation in 300 feet of vacuum insulated piping. The 300 feet of pipe was subjected to an over pressure situation which burst the pipe and allowed LNG and methane to be released into the facility. The sudden release of LNG and methane from the piping caused a subsequent explosion and fire that damaged piping and components in the plant. At PHMSA’s direction, Freeport engaged a third-party consultant, IFO Group, to conduct a root cause failure analysis (RCFA) of the explosion and subsequent fire and release of LNG
PRV released gas which ignited to create a fireball. The PRV may have been the wrong one for the task and released inadvertently or the line over pressured and the PRV did its job. I have seen similar situations.
Root cause investigations of this type here in the US are fairly decent. In this cause, I am certain the truth will be known. I do not recall a similar situation with an underwater pipeline rupturing. I have seen underground pipelines rupture due to earth movement.
With the EU involved under current conditions I do not know if the truth will be ever be know. I do not know how things operate in the EU but I have worked in plants with multiple fatalities in the US and make a point of reading the root cause investigations.
I have seen some good investigations set the blame in the correct places. It is a learning experience for all to avoid such incidents

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 2 2022 20:40 utc | 55

@ c1ue
The issue with the nuclear plants in Germany is far from over. Their Chancellor of the Exchequer, some neoliberal dude with just as much economic expertise as our all-beloved Liz Truss, demanded yesterday to keep the plants going and two further ones, shut down the years before, to be switched on. I think it will depend on the mood on the German streets.
@ Norwegian
Well, interestingly, the Greens and Merkel always got on well together. At least today’s Greens, which should not be mixed up with the original version, this anti-militarist, anti-US, anti-capitalist guys of the early 1980s. After German reunification they (were) changed to the opposite, the only “green” attitude remaining a superficial and neoliberal understanding of environmental and energy policies. Fundamental opposition before 1989, they will now join any type of coalition as long as they get some well-paid posts and the Ministry for the Environment. Merkel even wanted to form a coalition with them and the (neo-)liberals from the FDP party in 2017, but the latter backed off, so she continued with the New Labour-type social democrats. So, in the end, if Merkel and the Greens had been together, they probably had finished off Germany a while earlier…
@ all
Anyone some news on Armenia here? The big Azeri offensive on Syunik to catch this Zangezur corridor has not materialised so far. Anything to be expected in the coming week(s) or will this speculated diplomatic solution come around?

Posted by: Seneschal | Oct 2 2022 21:13 utc | 57

So b, food for thought re: future DDOS attacks, DNS deletion, etc
Perhaps consider going to a static IP address for the site in order to thwart removal of DNS entries, or worse. Your server(s) would still work, but no one can access, whereas with a static IP (bookmarked by all, of course), would get around such nonsense, and keep everyone well fed, at least intellectually… 🙂
As I said, food for thought… in the mean-time, stay strong all – onward & upward…

Posted by: ianMoone | Oct 2 2022 21:30 utc | 59

Tom_Q_Collins
It is best to ignore norwegian’s lame pro hyrocabon propagandising his ridiculous attempts to tar Desmog by comparing it to bellingcat a state security services funded lie machine prove exactly how he has allowed his prejudices to inhibit any rationality he may have had.
c1ue a paid propgandist for the fossil fuel industry has been rabbiting on about the Texas freeze incessantly since it occured. The fact that this happened in the spiritual home of amerika’s hydrocarbon industry Texas is never mentioned. Nor is the possibility that the state deliberately & in time honoured fashion, set the alternative energy industry up to fail in the home of hydrocarbons. Laughably he uses the name of John Kerry a significant figure in the Obama govt’s theatre of pretense, which merely strengthens the argument that he is promoting a deliberate set up by amerika’s energy corporations.
Frankly I dunno why c1ue persists, most have long ago learned to scoot past his lengthy cut n pastas which are doubtlessly carefully selected from the hundreds of thousands of journal publications the hydrocarbon industry funds his access to, maybe that is all they pay, his tech journal access he comes across as thick enough to fall for such a ploy – in the hope that if he submits to their selfishness & disdain sufficiently he will be rewarded. c1ue then spends the next 6 days poring through these articles before dumping a selection of only those which may further his deceit in this blog.. The exact same offence he accused VK of.
The one simple point which c1ue can never refute, no matter how much gobbledegook of others that he inflicts upon us is explained simply. What does anyone think would happen when humans burn at least half the energy gathered from the sun by this planet through photosynthesis over hundreds of millions of years, within the space of a single century?
It is ludicrous to claim that doing something so stupid and obvious would not heat up this planet when we are effectively releasing a coupla hundred million years worth of sun’s energy so gathered within such a short space of time. I know many will sigh at such a seemingly clumsy method of explaining an issue that is traditionally been buried in a welter of argument & counter-argument awash with technical jargon, especially those amerikans claiming to be ‘engineers’ who have been led up the garden path for generations by popular mechanics tosh, but fascination with getting lost in the figures rather than looking out the window is what drove the amerikan empire into the ground so fast.
Neoliberal governments set about grooming those worried about global warming by promising to fix the problem then deliberately sabotaging such fixes to advance the interests of the energy corporations back in the 1990s. All these deniers do is further that work with their continual debates over side issues which never get to the meat of an issue that is plain as the daylight released by their insistence on continued hydrocarbon burning.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Oct 2 2022 22:17 utc | 61

What is the rules-based international order?
Wikipedia has a good article on the topic, except that it is under a different title. According to Wikipedia, the liberal international order is “a particular international order centered on cooperation between liberal democratic states and U.S.-led multilateral institutions.”

In international relations, the liberal international order describes a set of global, rule-based, structured relationships based on political liberalism, economic liberalism and liberal internationalism since the late 1940s. More specifically, it entails international cooperation through multilateral institutions (like the United Nations, World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund) and is constituted by human equality (freedom, rule of law and human rights), open markets, security cooperation, promotion of liberal democracy, and monetary cooperation. The order was established in the aftermath of World War II, led in large part by the United States.

Note, that the definition sets it apart from international law. The modern formulation of international law was created in the UN after WW II by the Soviet Union and the Western allies. Liberal international order became the dominant world order only during the “Unipolar Moment” in the 1990s.
The liberal international order promotes a fake version of human rights. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is a compromise between Western Capitalist and Soviet Socialist thinking. The collection of “rights” is a hodgepodge of everything the Nazis hated and violated. About one third of the rights listed are labor and collective rights.
Individual and collective rights are often mutually exclusive and can never be fulfilled at same time, except maybe in the most affluent societies. This has allowed Human Rights Watch to create a fabricated hoax version of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Their argument is that as individual and collective rights negate each other, one of them must be null and void. They elected to abolish collective rights and created a collection of individual and corporate rights, which they fraudulently call “Human Rights”.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Oct 2 2022 22:27 utc | 63

Debsisdead @61 wrote: “What does anyone think would happen when humans burn at least half the energy gathered from the sun by this planet through photosynthesis”
Up until you wrote the above sentence everything you said was brilliant and spot on but then with that one sentence your rant decoupled from facts. (assuming I correctly understood the sentence)
Let’s stick to facts. Every year plants on Earth convert ten times more of the sun’s energy into useful hydrocarbons than humans have ever burned in one year and plants have been doing at least that much for billions of years. And plants only utilize something like 10% of the sun’s energy that bumps into the Earth.
In other words, fossil fuels only represent an insignificantly tiny fraction of the energy that has been coming from coming from the sun for billions of years. Your point is correct that it took a long time to store that energy and we are consuming it at a moronically rapid rate. You are also correct6 to call c1ue stupid for refusing to look att other means of harvesting the sun’s energy.
Your point that wasting the tiny fraction of the sun’s energy that has been able to be stored as C1ue constantly advocates for is indeed moronic. If you would have just written “c1ue is a moron” and could have been done with it…

Posted by: jinn | Oct 2 2022 23:09 utc | 65

The Curious Whodunit of Nordstreams 1 and 2 – Written by Tom Luongo
shared here by: ? | Oct 2 2022 17:30 utc | 14
I have a dream: Where people would not write crap like this by Luongo and other people would not read it or share it.
In modern usage, sophism, sophist, and sophistry are used disparagingly. A sophism, or sophistry is a fallacious argument, especially one used deliberately to deceive. A sophist is a person who reasons with clever but fallacious and deceptive arguments.
Thousands will swallow this level of attention-seeking stupid anyway and then keep on wondering: “Gosh, how did we end up here in Lala Land?”

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 2 2022 23:25 utc | 67

Posted by: Aleji | Oct 2 2022 20:06 utc | 53

Do you have a link for Orlov article on Fukushima?
Thanks
Posted by: K | Oct 2 2022 22:50 utc | 64

An internet search I did just now included among its results an analysis (not by Orlov) of the Fukushima incident here.

Posted by: David Levin | Oct 2 2022 23:42 utc | 69

Meanwhile through the smoke and haze we see that Brazil is having a momentous Presidential election as “Arch enemies vie for Brazil’s top job.” While I’m pleased Bolsonaro was unable to destabilize BRICS during his illegitimate time as president, I’m saddened that BRICS wasn’t able to progress as far–and Brazil lost much–because Lula was sidelined. IMO, Brazil lost ten years of development. Lula seems on the cusp of winning. With luck, he’ll further change South America’s orientation and finally shred what’s wrongly called the Monroe Doctrine.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 2 2022 23:59 utc | 71

The problem for Nord Stream is not as if they are repairable which they are if commenced immediately – the problem is the political ideological climate and sanctions. The damage is in neither German or Russian territorial or economic zone waters rather it is in the economic zone of Sweden and Denmark. Then there are the US sanctions on NS2. Amazing coincidence US has a base – official or unofficial – on the island near where the bombings occurred.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 0:03 utc | 73

The US did the NS pipelines. And the US wants to tell you it did it…without *telling* you….
https://twitter.com/DeptofDefense/status/1575893273390071808
Department of Defense @DeptofDefense
United States government organization The flag 🇺🇸flies everywhere. @USNavy. sailors assigned to various Naval Special Warfare commands operate a diver propulsion device during high-altitude dive training in northern California.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 0:22 utc | 75

Erlindur | Oct 2 2022 23:47 utc | 70
How did Russia gain access to NATO controlled maritime territory?
The US through its toys out of the pram in a tantrum when Russia.. a Pacific Ocean nation sent vessels into the Pacific Ocean “ offshore” from Hawaii when the US wanted to conduct some military exercises…..
“Offshore” “near” Hawaii was 300 nautical miles…. But still too close for US comfort…
How was Russia able to send any assets at all.. let alone those capable of blowing up the pipeline, into a location totally controlled by the US navy + its NATO puppies?

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 0:32 utc | 77

Sending explosives down the pipe is probably doable. It would be probably also quite easy to recognise the difference, that’s probably why this theory isn’t pushed that hard.

Posted by: Proteiros | Oct 3 2022 0:39 utc | 79

Peter AU1 @73–
IMO, the Nord Stream pipelines are dead and will not be resurrected other than for scrap. The Russians learned a lot from NS2 as they had to design all the systems themselves thanks to sanctions and that greatly helped the overall economy. In essence, that was priceless. The trans-Ukrainian pipes remain and can be captured, that is if Russia still sees Europe as an energy customer. Protecting South Stream is now paramount. This answer by Lavrov to media provides the grounds for my reasoning:
“Question: Is it possible to further find a common language with racists?
“Sergey Lavrov: I think not. President of Russia Vladimir Putin said today in a generalized form what we have been warning about for many years and urged us to come to our senses.
“Vladimir Putin said “masks have been dropped”. I believe that racism has not disappeared, as we now understand. If earlier we thought that this was latent racism, now it is clear that this is the most direct, frank, rude.
“We will develop in such a way as not to depend on any racists, but to depend on ourselves and those people around the world who rely on us.”
Russophobia in Europe will have to die before Russia offers its people help, and it will make that be known in a more overt manner. Yes, relations will continue with the few European nations that have proven to be friends throughout all this, but the rest will get the cold shoulder for a long time. Macron was already fretting about that very possibility.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 3 2022 0:47 utc | 81

@Et tu
An example of the OSINT in the public domain.
Some threads back you expressed some dubiousness that this sort of information would be available…. But it is.
And tweets like this are why the US is referring to the sabotage of the NS1+2 pipelines as “mysterious leaks” to “European energy security” (refusing to mention the pipeline is majorly owned by Russia/ Gazprom )
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1574342968055578625?cxt=HHwWgoCy2dKlmNkrAAAA
September 26:
-USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint JAKE11
-Royal Norwegian Air Force Falcon 20ECM RAVEN77 Electronic-warfare aircraft
-Swedish Air Force GIV Korpen SVF623
-USAF E8C Joint STARS REDEYE6
-USAF KC135R 59-1520
https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1574312192035414017?cxt=HHwWgoCzvZ-mitkrAAAA
September 26:
Today and tomorrow, Allied and Partner airforces conduct training drills in the Baltic Sea region. Exercise Ramstein Alloy focuses on #NATO’s defend and deter concept.
More info: https://bit.ly/3BLkBjF
Question from Twitter: ^^ Was this around the time off the shockwaves that caused NORD stream leaks ???
Manu Gómez @GDarkconrad
September 28 2:31am
US Navy Sikorsky SH-60 Seahawk 168145 active over the Baltic Sea.
https://twitter.com/GDarkconrad/status/1574798792569851905

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 0:56 utc | 83

Good one Norwegian! Fukushima was something “more than natural”. nice.
on the actual good news front:
“Margaritaville” still stands. Put Jimmy Buffett in charge of Florida’s building codes (but not music). He’s doing a better job than Desantis’ cronies. I bet all of Jimmy’s party boats are still afloat, too.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 3 2022 1:11 utc | 85

I woke up this a.m. here on the west coast and did my quick check of the day’s propaganda at the NYT, curious how the nightmare in Florida will be spinned.
what a surprise. such good news coming out of Ukraine. 6 articles worth of good news leading the day. I hope Florida can eat that news and wipe its bum with it. how much of a waiting list is it for a non-mold-infested FEMA trailer?
like “support” during the coronavirus, like the tens of billions in military “support” dumped on Ukraine, how much of the “recovery” money for Florida will disappear in the bottomless black hole of corruption that is the US economy?
you know, because they “care”.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 3 2022 1:21 utc | 87

posted by: fanto | Oct 3 2022 1:15 utc | 86
Yes, it was on purpose, first thought as a comment about the Polish politician’s tweet mentioned by Melaleuca. I was thinking about it for some time, so I guess I was waiting for an excuse.
Online written words clearly don’t have such permanence, even with archives they can get submerged in search engines and became irrelevant. This isn’t really something that new, we have unmanageable quantities of conserved documents from times before the internet and pretty randomly picked fragments from older times.
The second part seems a bit more forced, but spinning is clearly on the rise, which isn’t only verbal, but has a verbal feel.
Online writing has a more colloquial nature, it is often more transient or more persistent than wanted, still conserves a similar “prove” authority as physical documents.

Posted by: Proteiros | Oct 3 2022 1:47 utc | 89

And when I say: How did Russia access NATO controlled maritime and airspace… I mean…. How?
Here’s NATO conducting surveillance in the Baltic airspace, directly over the pipeline September 16
September 16:
“For the first time, @Team_Luftwaffe & @EjercitoAir have collectively executed #NATO’s enhanced Air Policing together to safeguard Baltic airspace..More info: https://bit.ly/3Bm459m
September 27: Spain: “Good night, NATO allies! #GoodNight #NATO allies
https://twitter.com/NATO/status/1570420509568892928
[Why wish #NATO allies a “good” night, that particular night???]
And…. When Russia did fly in international airspace, near the Baltics….
NATO scrambled jets.. https://twitter.com/ItalianAirForce/status/1572994566709542912
Sept 23: Aeronautica Militare. @ItalianAirForce Two other #Scramble for #Eurofighter of the TFA “White Eagle” in #Poland to intercept Russian jets flying over the Baltic Sea area.
This week only #ItalianAirForce fighters have carried out seven immediate take-off. #NATO #AirPolicing
Oh. The “good night NATO allies got a retweet from RachelLoraine in South Carolina. With a Tom Cruise Maverick gif.
https://twitter.com/SweetLorriane1/status/1574747482361413634
South Carolina… Who in US intell was watching???
RachelLorraine was more than a bit perturbed by Radeksik tweet
“Thank You America”
Say whaaaa?? No wayyyyyyy https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915
(Deleted tweet. )
https://twitter.com/SweetLorriane1/status/1574815866918666240?cxt=HHwWgICw5f2r79orAAAA

Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 2:01 utc | 91

We might consider the MoA outage on Saturday 1 October as a warning.
B, please tell us what provisions you might have envisaged for us to continue to share, discuss and inform ourselves in case the powers that be do shut MoA down.
Some poster already suggested to move your ISP provider to Iceland.

Posted by: Clover | Oct 3 2022 2:09 utc | 93

@oldhippie | Oct 2 2022 23:15 utc | 66

Do you think large scale tsunamis can be arranged by any but Nature?

I don’t know for sure, but I know what is being claimed by those who have a tendency to project
Russia’s New Nuclear Weapon Can Create Tsunamis (What Can Be Done?)

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 3 2022 5:43 utc | 95

“Sham referenda” is the new talking point and it is fun to observe how difficult it has been to translate into some languages. Whether the independence and annexation of the “four regions” gets recognized or not obscures the fact that no other country than Turkey has recognized Northern Cyprus and, as we know, Turkey is a Nato country.

Posted by: Jonathan W | Oct 3 2022 5:57 utc | 97

https://www.dn.se/sverige/svenska-marinen-hade-fartyg-pa-plats-fore-explosionerna/
swedish surveillance ship tracked for days all over the explosion points a few days before . but saw nothing heard nothing says nothing. lolz

Posted by: hankster | Oct 3 2022 6:54 utc | 99