The Expected Financial Crash Is Finally Here
When two experienced economy and finance analysts, who both correctly predicted the derivative crisis of 2008, again warn of an imminent crash one better listens up.
Today Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism writes about the now Inevitable Financial Crisis:
For months, I have been confident that Europe would suffer a financial crisis and a depression, as in a real economy catastrophe accompanied by a market crash. It might not be that severe and lasting as 1929, but the breadth would mean there would not be 1987 quick bounceback nor a 2008 derivatives crisis concentrated at the heart of the banking system. Even though that looked like financial near-death experience, the same factors that made it more acute in many respects also made it easier for the officialdom to identify and shore up the key institutions that took hits below the water line.The short version of what follows is things are looking even worse now, and on multiple fronts.
...
Below we’ll discuss the rapidly accelerating real economy crisis, which is exacerbated by central bank tightening as pretty much the only line of defense against inflation that is almost entirely the result of a multi-fronted supply shock.1 Needless to say, the Fed raising interest rates (which Bernanke recognized as necessary in 2014 to tame bubbly asset prices but then lost his nerve) does nothing to get more chips from China or magically cure Covid-afflicted staffers so they can show up at work. But it will whack all sorts of speculators and financial firms who have wrong-footed their interest rate positions.And it also seemed apparent that the US would be pulled into the maelstrom, perhaps not as far, but contagion, supply chain dependencies, and the importance of Europe as a customer would assure the US would suffer too.
The second warning comes from 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini:
- There are signs a debt crisis is forming and the economy is headed for a hard landing, Nouriel Roubini says.
- Roubini predicted a deep recession and a 40% fall in the stock market by the end of the year.
- He has warned that a wide range of shocks will have dire effects on global economies.
There are signs that a debt crisis has already started taking shape, and a hard landing of the economy before the end of the year is now the baseline scenario, according to top economist Nouriel Roubini.
Roubini, who has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his pessimistic views on markets and the economy, has warned of a looming debt and inflationary crisis for about a year. Previously, he predicted it would lead to a Frankenstein-style recession by the end of 2022, mixing the worst aspects of 1970s stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis.
And the signs of that financial meltdown are finally emerging, Roubini said, who referred to a hard landing as the baseline scenario in an op-ed for Project Syndicate on Monday.
"Signs of strain in debt markets are mounting … the crisis is here," Roubini said, referring to recent moves by central bankers to stem market volatility.
Roubini's Project Syndicate headline is the message: The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here.
His argument which I highlighted is nearly similar to the one Yves makes:
NEW YORK – For a year now, I have argued that the increase in inflation would be persistent, that its causes include not only bad policies but also negative supply shocks, and that central banks’ attempt to fight it would cause a hard economic landing. When the recession comes, I warned, it will be severe and protracted, with widespread financial distress and debt crises. Notwithstanding their hawkish talk, central bankers, caught in a debt trap, may still wimp out and settle for above-target inflation. Any portfolio of risky equities and less risky fixed-income bonds will lose money on the bonds, owing to higher inflation and inflation expectations.
...
Everyone now recognizes that these persistent negative supply shocks have contributed to inflation, and the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve have begun to acknowledge that a soft landing will be exceedingly difficult to pull off. Fed Chair Jerome Powell now speaks of a “softish landing” with at least “some pain.” Meanwhile, a hard-landing scenario is becoming the consensus among market analysts, economists, and investors.
It is much harder to achieve a soft landing under conditions of stagflationary negative supply shocks than it is when the economy is overheating because of excessive demand.
The central banks have misdiagnosed the reason for the currently high inflation rates. They were caused not only by too much stimulus provided by governments and the central banks but to a large part by the lack of supplies which is to the consequence of the pandemic and the 'western' sanctions following the war in Ukraine. By increasing interest rates the central banks fought against the wrong enemy. They made things worse:
Are we already in a recession? Not yet, but the US did report negative growth in the first half of the year, and most forward-looking indicators of economic activity in advanced economies point to a sharp slowdown that will grow even worse with monetary-policy tightening. A hard landing by year’s end should be regarded as the baseline scenario.
While many other analysts now agree, they seem to think that the coming recession will be short and shallow, whereas I have cautioned against such relative optimism, stressing the risk of a severe and protracted stagflationary debt crisis. And now, the latest distress in financial markets – including bond and credit markets – has reinforced my view that central banks’ efforts to bring inflation back down to target will cause both an economic and a financial crash.
...
Moreover, there are early signs that the Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative supply shocks. In addition to the disruptions mentioned above, these shocks could include societal aging in many key economies (a problem made worse by immigration restrictions); Sino-American decoupling; a “geopolitical depression” and breakdown of multilateralism; new variants of COVID-19 and new outbreaks, such as monkeypox; the increasingly damaging consequences of climate change; cyberwarfare; and fiscal policies to boost wages and workers’ power.
...
US and global equities have not yet fully priced in even a mild and short hard landing. Equities will fall by about 30% in a mild recession, and by 40% or more in the severe stagflationary debt crisis that I have predicted for the global economy. Signs of strain in debt markets are mounting: sovereign spreads and long-term bond rates are rising, and high-yield spreads are increasing sharply; leveraged-loan and collateralized-loan-obligation markets are shutting down; highly indebted firms, shadow banks, households, governments, and countries are entering debt distress. The crisis is here.
There is little one can do to protect oneself from the consequences of this crisis. Try to stay on the safe side. Have as little debt as possible. If you have debt it will likely be much better to have it at a fixed interest rate. Don't bet on the value of any assets you might have.
This storm will be rough and the consequences will be severe.
Posted by b on October 3, 2022 at 18:01 UTC | Permalink
next page »Looks like the wrong turns of Western neoliberal economics are finally going to make itself felt. It's almost certain that no debts will be written down or restructured in any way. Hopefully the SCO countries go the way of industrial capitalism evolving into socialism instead of financialization
https://michael-hudson.com/2022/07/from-junk-economics-to-a-false-view-of-history-where-western-civilization-took-a-wrong-turn/
Posted by: leaf | Oct 3 2022 18:11 utc | 2
It would be real nice if these doom and gloomers provided knowledge on how people under western overlords or anyone for that matter could do w their investments to ease this.
Thanks B
Posted by: Tannenhouser | Oct 3 2022 18:17 utc | 3
And CHINA nor RUSSIA will be there to offer a helping hand.
Posted by: Lord Ashvile | Oct 3 2022 18:18 utc | 4
Putin dunnit.
Good one b. I had been looking at this stuff in the last few days and put a comment in the open thread on it. 2008 was just entree. This will be the main course.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 18:21 utc | 5
TANNENHOUSER
I agree I wish we could get Hudson to talk to us about what we should do. We have just hit retirement and Have put stuff in the market and I am wondering if I should get out off the market keep bonds or what?
Posted by: SUSAN | Oct 3 2022 18:27 utc | 6
Tannenhouser | Oct 3 2022 18:17 utc | 3 "how people under western overlords or anyone for that matter could do w their investments to ease this"
AS b said get out of debt and buy some gold. I have been telling friends and family that for the last two years. They all think I am nuts.
Physical gold is an insurance rather than investment. It is a low volume commodity that can be used as currency right through history and at least into the foreseeable future.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 18:27 utc | 7
@Tannenhouser | Oct 3 2022 18:17 utc | 3
Invest in real assets rather than chattel.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 18:28 utc | 8
Yep, I don't see anybody lifting a finger to stop it.
I wonder if it will affect the election.
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 3 2022 18:29 utc | 9
No energy.
No economy.
Add green energy dogma to mix.
I'm reading that Credit Suisse is entering Lehmann territory.
Given it global pillar bank status and 1.6 trillion in managed assets v Lehmanns at the approx
Plus whatever is going on with Deutsch bank for the last number of years.
Europe is fucked.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 3 2022 18:31 utc | 10
well I'm doing well on debt at least. don't know about investing, whether gold or land. I'm just sitting tight, as we collectively slouch toward Bethlehem.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 3 2022 18:37 utc | 13
"Immigration restrictions?" I haven't noticed any. Quite the opposite, actually.
Posted by: George Jenatsch | Oct 3 2022 18:37 utc | 14
"For months, I have been confident that Europe would suffer a financial crisis and a depression, as in a real economy catastrophe accompanied by a market crash. It might not be that severe and lasting as 1929,"
It will be worse. Todays governments are larger, more intrusive, and more indebted. Then there is the derivative problem.
Posted by: Drapetomaniac | Oct 3 2022 18:46 utc | 15
Then there is the derivative problem.
Posted by: Drapetomaniac | Oct 3 2022 18:46 utc | 15
Yeah that might be a bit difficult to work out.
Posted by: jpc | Oct 3 2022 18:50 utc | 16
It will be worse. Todays governments are larger, more intrusive, and more indebted. Then there is the derivative problem.
Posted by: Drapetomaniac | Oct 3 2022 18:46 utc | 15
---
The bigger problem yet is that people believe unproductive "capital" has value, while in fact it is a liability.
Correcting that false belief will be a very painful lesson. Failing the lesson isn't optional.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 18:53 utc | 17
Thanks for the posting b
The Dow 30 market is up over 800 points as I type this textual white noise in.
One might ask, where are the fundamentals?
How can one have fundamentals with fiat money?
This financial crash is not going to be like others because the punch bowl is at stake here.....public/private finance is the civilization war being fought as I have been saying forever....
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 3 2022 18:55 utc | 18
ABDC's are the future. Asset back digital currency. Check out Kinesis. Shameless plug:
Posted by: Lozion | Oct 3 2022 18:58 utc | 19
For a terrifying exercise -
Model the impact of a normalized 5% 10 year on the Federal Budget. Then realize State and local are in worse shape than the Feds. It’s worse than you imagine.
Get out while you still can. Time to vote with your feet
Posted by: Exile | Oct 3 2022 19:01 utc | 20
SUSAN @6--
The markets will fall, so sell now to save your equity. If you can find a way, buy Russian and Chinese bonds, they will become the new store-of-value. I'd also suggest short selling the major market indices like the S&P 500. On silver and gold, make sure you get physical not paper. Learn how to properly can perishables for storage.
pretzelattack | Oct 3 2022 18:37 utc | 13
Land is good because that means you don't have to camp under a bridge. Some sort of salable commodity is handy to buy food and stuff either directly or swapping for a wheelbarrow load of faith based currency which can be used to purchase whatever goods you need. Farm land as an investment might be good if the US doesn't go under and the US chemical corps will be snapping it up... but I think this will be like a tsunami that starts in Europe and travels to and over the US very fast.
Food growing land is the thing of the future though. Residential land? if in the US, the rate at which bridges are falling down, a lot of people will be looking for alternative accommodation.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:04 utc | 22
While the owners of the financial institutions that caused the crisis in the first place have some wine, eat some caviar, and try to calculate the number of unemployed they can expect to use as conscripts (like they have done every other time)...
@Lozion | Oct 3 2022 18:58 utc | 19
LOL! Price a simple anvil.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 19:07 utc | 24
It appears the Trolls do not have permission or notes to comment on financial matters.
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Oct 3 2022 19:11 utc | 25
This will be considerably uglier than the last depression. Back then people still had a clue on how to survive with gardening, cooking, canning, hunting, fishing, and sewing skills. Almost all still had wood or coal burning stoves. They also lived in communities of extended families, which does help in creating a micro supply chain of helping hands and necessities. Payment of government debt will pretty much limit the bankers response. Of course we could go the route of a debt jubilee. Would the funny money bankers allow it? Or are they just the giddy architects of financial collapse for the great banker reset?
Sooner or later the grids will be going down, so good luck to all. My best advice is get yourself the access to clean water, buy warm clothing, and get a coal/wood stove if you can.
Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Oct 3 2022 19:14 utc | 26
My $0.02 on investing in these times is to de-dollarize
This means to invest in things that have intrinsic value and are negotiable. Cash is not good because it has no intrinsic value. Property is good as long as one owns it outright or is assured payment making ability through this mess.
The arguments about holding paper or physical precious metals are controversial. Physical is best but purity and protection are issues while paper is only as good as what is left of the underlying system when the bottom falls out.
Food is a good hedge up to a point but then rotation, storage and protection again is an issue.
This transition that humanity is going through does not have to be traumatic but the losers will do everything to make it so as they go down.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 3 2022 19:19 utc | 27
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:04 utc | 23
Yup, owning farmable/gardenable land and growing organic food is definitely the key to survival. Gold, shitcoins, et al. cannot be eaten or bargain with when the real shit hits the fan.
But go it now!
Posted by: Sam Smith | Oct 3 2022 19:20 utc | 28
Probably a good time to put some scratch into an S&P index-tracking mutual fund or ETF. "When there's blood on the streets" and all that. I personally doubt the bottom is in, but even if takes a few years to recover, if someone can afford to hold until then it would be a good return. Growing food and canning is fun (to me at least) but I think the local grocery store will still be open this time next year...
Posted by: Yenwoda | Oct 3 2022 19:20 utc | 29
I lost a lot of $$ trying to short this market.
I'd get a profit, which the next counter-trend rally turned into a major loss.
I expect strength through the end of this week, based upon normal month end money flows.
Big problem with shorting this market is the FED.... until recently Powell's statements were bookish, so the pundits could cherry pick from his remarks and prove their bullish case. That supported the summer rally.
In August at Jackson Hole, Powell finally cut his 30 min speech to 8 cogent, to the point minutes and the market got the message, selling off a significant counter trend rally.
Today, the FED is having a "secret" un-scheduled meeting. The market interprets this as the FED caving in. The FED has a serious public relations problem.
Had the FED announced this emergency meeting as pondering whether to raise interest rates NOW.. or wait until the regular meeting on 2 Nov... with their bias toward another significant rate increase NOW... matters and speculation would be settled.
Credit Suisse blowing up is probably what this emergency meeting is about, and they are probably trying to figure out how to deflate the derivatives baloon without throwing main st down the toilet, just before the election.
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Oct 3 2022 19:21 utc | 30
One thing that is overlooked is the Return of the Dragon dollars. China and other countries have started reducing their dollar reserves; these dollars are coming home, and boost the inflation. The symptom is the export of hitherto less traded items out of the US. Those who are dumping the dollars back in the US will want to buy something, anything, with those dollars, because tomorrow those dollars will lose value even more. Therefore buy and take away whatever you could out of the US, before it declares bankruptcy, I mean, refuses to redeem its T bonds.
Posted by: Old Brown Fool | Oct 3 2022 19:23 utc | 31
In Europe at least, if the Banks are compromised or go Bankrupt, then ALL your assets held by them can (and probably will) be seized. You are an unsecured creditor. ie. You have "lent" (given?) your money and assets to the Bank, and you will be last in line to get anything back. A pittance. These laws have already been set up for some time by Brussels and I think in nearly all EU countries.
So the answer to Tannenhouser @3 and SUSAN @ 6 is, don't trust Banks. There are more than just the two "too big to fail" Banks that could cause problems. (At least six) The biggest one is that the REAL state of affairs within the Banks are not known and nasty surprises can be expected -
Personally I would suggest spreading any "investment" or commodity bought, and keeping them accessible across several sources/mattresses.
Why Gold? Try silver (undervalued), Platinum, Palladium or a rare earth if you have enough money. Even then it may be too late, as Banks delay letting non-initiated people get their hands on real solid assets.
But the biggest problem with what sounds like a "good idea" is to find someone who can "buy" it/them later. You need a good meal? Will you sell a massive bit of Gold for it?
*****
True history.
For a long time I travelled with a very small bloc of gold, hidden in an artists' colour paint tube. (White) At the time these were made of lead so x-rays could not see inside. You open it from the bottom and leave some paint still inside. Squeeze it and it still has paint coming out.
Finally We tried to sell it in Ethiopia to extend our holiday. No buyers (with reason, too dangerous at the time). BUT on leaving, my wife was searched thoroughly to find the gold. The Jeweller obviously had notified the Police. They didn't find anything, but she HAD kept the colour tube with her makeup, instead of letting me carry it with my other tubes of paint.
Lesson learnt. We finally sold the gold in Hong Kong where it was legal.
***
Blackrock (The worlds biggest investment fund) has been seen "talking" to Zelensky in Ukraine very recently. Since Zelensky is in the process of selling the country to Oligarchs, I wonder if he also gets his ten percent?
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 19:24 utc | 32
Remember that Jerome Powell said that the raising of interest rates was also to stop the rise of wages due to covid which was cutting into profits for the ownership class:
"So in principle, it seems as though, by moderating demand, we could see vacancies come down, and as a result—and they could come down fairly significantly and I think put supply and demand at least closer together than they are, and that that would give us a chance to have lower—to get inflation—to get wages down and then get inflation down without having to slow the economy and have a recession and have unemployment rise materially. So there’s a path to that."
Posted by: Kali El | Oct 3 2022 19:27 utc | 33
“I wonder if it will affect the election.”
I wonder if the election will affect anything.
Posted by: Kevin | Oct 3 2022 19:32 utc | 34
"The central banks have misdiagnosed the reason for the currently high inflation rates. They were caused not only by too much stimulus provided by governments and the central banks but to a large part by the lack of supplies which is to the consequence of the pandemic and the 'western' sanctions following the war in Ukraine."
Not exactly. On the contrary, the pandemic depressed demand and delayed the negative supply shock, which was already in the making. The inflation rate, which was already on the rise in 2021, was caused by the lack of supply and that lack of supply is a structural problem of the capitalist, globalist economic system. Globalization resulted in very long, i.e. world-size, supply chains, which strained the transportation capacity of the whole world, and which relied on cheap transportation costs. As transportation capacity got under stress, and trasportation costs (wages, fuel etc.) began to rise, the system started to crumble. This war is just more stress for the system, but, don't be fooled, I am quite sure that the Russians invaded Ukraine, because they knew that the commodity market, which is the strong point of Russia, was structurally in big troubles and so their economic position, that is their negotiation power, was stronger than ever.
Posted by: SG | Oct 3 2022 19:38 utc | 35
No NATO-trolls?
Thats possibly because theres no good way to polish the current economic turd nor roll it in glitter, and ''it's Putin what dunnit''! Has been so ridiculously overused that people would be sick of hearing it even if it WAS true...
Over here Liz Truss just greenlit a mini-budget so gratuitously bad, that even the pro-Tory media were obliged to commit truth in a tepid way.
Posted by: Urban Fox | Oct 3 2022 19:41 utc | 36
Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 19:24 utc | 33
You have certainly had some interesting times. Here in Australia you can buy minted gold down to half ounce ingots all with the mint stamp for purity and I think weight. My thought is that carrying that mint stamp makes them better currency. I don't know if other precious metals can be bought like that. If not they would have to be assayed for purity when trying to sell them.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:46 utc | 37
Posted by: Old Brown Fool | Oct 3 2022 19:23 utc | 32
Your post is intriguing and I fully agree with it fundamentally. But do you have examples of the "hitherto less traded items" exported out of the US? I'm curious about that.
Posted by: Unnamed | Oct 3 2022 19:53 utc | 38
"The bigger problem yet is that people believe unproductive "capital" has value, while in fact it is a liability."
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 18:53 utc | 17
Hello too scents
I assume that with "unproductive capital" you mean money on bank accounts? And if so why do think it is a liability?
As I understand the term "liability" it is a payment obligation that I, as a debtor, have to a creditor and I don't understand how that should be the case with money on a bank account. But then there is the problem the word "liability" can be translated into different German meanings and maybe I get yours wrong?
Posted by: SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 19:54 utc | 39
The "Expected Financial Crash being finally here" needs to be defined.
A load of old waffle about previous financial crises, and quoting people who have been predict immanent doom about every six months means nothing.
Bankers, financiers, oligarchs, super-national corporations, politicians, academics, pundits and the media have managed kick the can down the road for 40+ years and will go on doing so to retain their privileged positions and lifestyle. To tell people to get out of debt is idiotic, in fact it would be just as well to tell people to borrow as much as possible an then declare bankruptcy.
If this global Ponzi is going down, the rule of law goes with it, along with civil obedience. Otherwise the zombie economic system will go on limping along as it has for the last 3 years.
There is no way all the big cities and conurbations will survive unless our masters and the elite, keep some semblance of control. When it finally blows, it ain't going to be pretty, anything else is gravy (for most).
Posted by: ft | Oct 3 2022 19:56 utc | 40
Old and Grumpy | Oct 3 2022 19:14 utc | 27
That is how a lot of Russians were able to survive the nineties. Not so much the Urban and apartment areas, but you look at every rural town and village in Russia Ukraine ect and they have about an acre backyard for a vege plot.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:57 utc | 41
. . . . and everybody lived happily never-after.
Acquiring Russia's natural resources is their only hope of surviving this clusterfuck. That's Plan A, B, C and D.
Everyone's got a plan until they receive a visit from Mr Kinzhal & Friends.
Posted by: WTFUD | Oct 3 2022 19:58 utc | 42
But Liman!!!
NATZOSTAN IS WINNING!!!
(Sorry. Couldn't resist.)
Posted by: dfg | Oct 3 2022 19:58 utc | 43
the elites, some of whom have come out publicly as the WEF have planned part of this. With the blowing up of Nordstream I and II, Germany will be deindustrialized. Before German industry and labor were thinking time to open Nordsteam II. Much of other industry in Europe will also be affected. While politicians that worked for the general good always had a hard time to get their projects done, the present politicians with the WEF behind them have had little trouble getting their lockdowns and mandates implemented worldwide. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand all have governments of WEF young leaders. German minister Baarbock openly stated that it doesn't matter what German voters think. The great Reset wants Central Bank digital currency instituted. However Tom Luongo claims that the large powerful US banks like JP Morgan know that they will lose their power if that happens. So Fed chairman Powell is raising interest rates that will bring the money from financially crashed Europe to the US. This will puff up the US dollar for quite a while. European banks are in terrible shape. There will be spillover effects to the US. As South Park eloquently presented, "And it's gone"
Posted by: gepay | Oct 3 2022 19:59 utc | 44
Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:46 utc | 38
I believe stamping is normal. On silver at least, but with both Gold and silver it is the surface quality of the final object which also must be taken into account.
In Oz I would have suggested buying opals, but again you would have to have some knowledge, Double and Triples, matrix. Bof, I don't really think I would have ended up in Coober Pedey, but it could have been fun.
Coral? Pearls? Nearly everything has been taken over by experts (from China or Japan).
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:04 utc | 45
"With the blowing up of Nordstream I and II, Germany will be deindustrialized."
Posted by: gepay | Oct 3 2022 19:59 utc | 45
Apparently one line of NordStream 2 is still operational...
"Single line of Nord Stream 2 can still export gas, analysts say"
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/single-line-nord-stream-2-can-still-export-gas-analysts-say-2022-09-28/
Posted by: SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 20:04 utc | 46
The Fed missed the yellow flashing lights in 2008 and hit the accelerator. Missed the off ramp in 2014. Then absurd amounts of stimulus in 2020-21 for Covid-19. Three strikes rule anyone?
All that new money created as debt, exponentially increasing into a demographic decline.
Unproductive debt is GDP borrowed from the future and must be reconciled at some point. Sustained inflation is one way, meaning on average everyone must get poorer.
Sell, sell, sell... say some. Sell for what, exactly? A bunch of devaluing zeros and ones in a bank ledger that can be frozen, bailed-in or expropriated at any time.
Once basic food and shelter are taken care of, assets that perform well vs other assets are the best bet. Forget about the nominal currency value, it means nothing.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Oct 3 2022 20:04 utc | 47
Well, after a hiatus from this site...
The answer to the question of "What should I do to mitigate the impending storm?" has been with us for as long as we've existed. Food. Shelter. Water. Everything I do has to map to one of those three things. Will it "save" me (or anyone else)? (Spoiler alert: we don't get out of this alive.) No, but it's the closest to ensuring a prolonged survival (unless one doesn't want to face the the ugliness that's coming our way, and I wouldn't disagree, forget it and go out as quickly as one can).
Having "physical" only works if there is someone else who actually has something that you NEED (based on Food, Shelter and Water). Witness folks in Europe who are scrambling to find firewood. Don't ASSUME that for a high-enough price-offering you'll be able to land what you need.
I'm in agreement with psychohistorian in thinking that this isn't just some sort of "correction" such that we'll rebound and continue playing the same game. This is the end of the Super Cycle. I've been highly doubtful of any ability to identify a usable system that does NOT require growth; but, that's exactly the only way out (shy of mass die-off and a re-rack of the same-ol-same, complete with the wealthy few and its slaves, which is really NOT a "usable system").
Troubling is that people are already sensing things are messed up and they are acting messed up. When the train-wreck is clearly in sight there's going to be a lot of messed up thinking being put into physical actions: the overlords have done an excellent job getting peoples' sights set on being divisive, they read the "book" [most everyone else, as history tells us, just never seems to figure this out].
Posted by: Seer | Oct 3 2022 20:09 utc | 48
SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 20:04 utc | 47
The NS2/B pipeline may still be usable but it probably only has the capacity to keep the German population warm. There will be very little left over for industry. It would also be a blow to Poland if they thought that they had Germany over a barrel re using the Yamal pipeline.
Interestingly, were gas to be supplied as per the NS2 contract it would be at prices similar to this time last year and Hungary's current price, which be a huge reduction in Russia's profit compared to its recent spot market sales.
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 3 2022 20:13 utc | 49
I am not fully clear about the advice to ´ Have as little debt as possible.´. Would inflation not wipe out or at least reduce the value of this debt over the next few years? And if you are lucky enough to own some assets, wouldn’t you be safer having some debt facing these assets, so that you can net losses on said assets (due to your bank going down and a haircut being enforced), with any debt you may have to the same institution ?
Posted by: Marc | Oct 3 2022 20:14 utc | 50
Real assets are a good idea. You can notice that the price of "stuff" is declining. We have the interest rate shock coming from central bank rates, but mostly from the fact that a debt bubble is formed and currently deflating. Money gets tight, rates go up. Generally speaking housing markets were already saturated with 0-rates or negative rates for many years. Since it lasted for that long, now when you get a sustainable rise of 1-2% it can crush many loan holders.
We also have the real economic crises, electricity prices are sustainably up from 2019-2020 averages 3-4x further dumping on real estates, especially houses. The big ensuing problem is household real income rates have declined more than in the last 60 years. That'll dent aggregate demand, leading to all sorts of financial implosions.
I would be weary of central banks continuing to hike rates as currently expected though, if you look at yield curves, they are inverted a.k.a do not confirm the growth story. Central banks also look at the yield curve to get "market confirmations". Also inflation seems to have somewhat peaked for now.
The "light" at the end of the tunnel, in Europe at least, is that heavy energy intensive industrial users will disappear completely, leading to energy prices normalizing again. But that might not be very helpful in the context of mass unemployment and poverty.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 20:17 utc | 51
@SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 19:54 utc | 40
Unproductive capital are things that do not increase industrial production. Like a Peloton exercise bike. Or PTON debt or shares in the company.
Unproductive capital is an undereducated population, a clear cut hillside, an exhausted fishery or an un-reclaimed mine.
It is also investments made in fashion, cosmetics and other trivia were the investment does not result in a net improvement in measurable industrial production.
The monetary base has real inputs.
A liability accumulates whenever a possession's carrying costs exceeds its earnings.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:17 utc | 52
One thing always overlooked when discussing the causes of inflation is the concentration of market power in fewer and fewer corporations. Beef, pork, chicken, gasoline, etc. are down to a few, colluding, companies. That might be the quiet part of supply chain disruptions, but isn't trivial. When the antitrust laws are being enforced, you'll see the consumer prices fall.
That means destroying demand is just elitist piling on. In theory it can act as extortion against the suppliers, but in the end austerity is just class warfare.
Posted by: jhill | Oct 3 2022 20:23 utc | 53
Recession? Retirement? Hahahaha, Shirley, you jest. If you don't already have skills to survive, you're fucked. Does anyone know where I can get two good mules and a wagon? Asking for a friend.
Posted by: Immaculate deception | Oct 3 2022 20:24 utc | 54
Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:04 utc | 46
I dug up some opal once. The stuff sells on the Asian market.Back opal not the Lighting ridge black potch backing but more like the boulder opal ironstone backing. One large piece had some real fire even in dim light. lot of fiery colours as it was tilted. I didn't have the internet back then so couldn't look up stones and compare it to get an idea of value. Sars was on and the Asian market had dropped right off. Me being dumb me sold the stones for fuck all. Looked up similar stones some years later and kicked myself.
First hole I dug the first twenty foot with crowbar and shovel. Set up a windlass and my youngest daughter would wind the buckets up. Hard work with a crowbar so I bought a jackhammer and went down to 42ft in that first hole. Next hole I went down about eight foot and hit a patch. It wasn't an opal mining area but I had been looking at that spot for years before digging a hole. Odd little hill and just the faintest traces of potch at the base of the hill.
For those that don't know, potch is like glass, opal that hasn't formed in the correct way for colours of the rainbow to flash.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 20:25 utc | 55
@JohninMK | Oct 3 2022 20:13 utc | 50
Interestingly, were gas to be supplied as per the NS2 contract it would be at prices similar to this time last year and Hungary's current price, which be a huge reduction in Russia's profit compared to its recent spot market sales.Nevertheless, it would be a decisive blow to the Empire. Go for it.
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 3 2022 20:27 utc | 56
A modern German drama in five acts:
Act One: Freezing Production - It is becoming prohibitively expensive to produce in Germany.
Act Two: The Price Trap - No one buys at the high prices German products now cost.
Act Three: The Consumer Crisis - Needing to pay high energy prices German consumers buy less of everything else.
Act Four: The Wave of Bankruptcies.
Act Five: The Final Act on the Labor Market.
Posted by: Ted | Oct 3 2022 20:27 utc | 57
"Also inflation seems to have somewhat peaked for now."
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 3 2022 20:17 utc | 52
That's true for some countries/areas... but for others...
Country 8/2022 9/2022
Austria 9.3 10.5
Germany 7.9 10.0
Euro Area 10.0 9.1
But a lot of data from September is still missing.
Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
Posted by: SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 20:28 utc | 58
@59
Euro Area should be 9.1 (August) and 10.0 (Sept.)
Posted by: SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 20:31 utc | 59
Seer | Oct 3 2022 20:09 utc | 49
"Food. Shelter. Water".
... and energy, which is what the existential crisis is also all about.
**
Although I agree in general about "I've been highly doubtful of any ability to identify a usable system that does NOT require growth", could there be a possibility with a new revaluation of "Quality". The Empires of Egypt and China of ages passed did have wars and other means of "growth" but did they last so long because the emphasis was on the Quality of realizations?
Admittedly their societies could be considered "static" to our eyes, and missing many of the possible advantages of "civilisation". Most peons would not have needed "civilization", but could have led reasonably happy and productive lives within a strict social structure. Would today's population agree to some individuals having "divine" rights that others do not?
Unfortunately this centralized "divine" leadership, is one that the WEF might think it deserves.
*****
So I have cut my own argument from underneath my feet. zut.
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:31 utc | 60
Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 19:24 utc | 33You have certainly had some interesting times. Here in Australia you can buy minted gold down to half ounce ingots all with the mint stamp for purity and I think weight. My thought is that carrying that mint stamp makes them better currency. I don't know if other precious metals can be bought like that. If not they would have to be assayed for purity when trying to sell them.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 19:46 utc | 38
In the US at least, there was a time (specifically, prior to 1965) when dimes and quarters were 90% silver. So if one's country's coinage was once predominantly silver and one were to acquire such coins, a potential buyer might accept them more readily than forms of silver that bear no outward indication of purity.
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 3 2022 20:36 utc | 61
Marc | Oct 3 2022 20:14 utc | 51
Debt - interest on interest without income.... Your equity loses value and you creditor sells the equity but price it brings does not cover the debts. I have been telling my son this for last couple of years telling him to get out of debt and keep what he has got as the ending is inevitable.
He doesn't even return my calls now so I guess he learns the hard way. He has worked hard and built up assets that for the last few years are worth far more than his debt. He will likely lose all he has worked the last twenty years for.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 20:37 utc | 62
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:17 utc | 53
Thank you for the explanation, appreciated.
Posted by: SwissGuy | Oct 3 2022 20:38 utc | 63
"Immigration restrictions?" I haven't noticed any. Quite the opposite, actually.
Posted by: George Jenatsch | Oct 3 2022 18:37 utc | 14
Maybe he's thinking about Japan. I'm not sure raising immigration when indigenous birth rates are depressed does the indigines any favours though.
The NS2/B pipeline may still be usable but it probably only has the capacity to keep the German population warm. There will be very little left over for industry. It would also be a blow to Poland if they thought that they had Germany over a barrel re using the Yamal pipeline.
Interestingly, were gas to be supplied as per the NS2 contract it would be at prices similar to this time last year and Hungary's current price, which be a huge reduction in Russia's profit compared to its recent spot market sales.
Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 3 2022 20:13 utc | 50
If Germany and Russia can get even one NS2 pipe flowing, they'll have solved the difficult political problem. The remaining problem is the relatively trivial technical issue of urgent repairs to the pipe, but like most things that can be solved with money.
Posted by: ZX | Oct 3 2022 20:39 utc | 64
how can one convert land and real estate into gold.. by swap?
where is the swap market and how brokers it.
Posted by: snake | Oct 3 2022 20:40 utc | 65
Since most barflies are occupied here and at the Ukraine thread, most will not have read Crooke's latest or my thought based upon its information that the pipelines need to be closed and EU made to suffer as intended by Biden and Company.
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 3 2022 20:36 utc | 62
I probably should have mentioned that the US coins in question bear the year they were minted and have an edge that clearly is not a "sandwich" of metals (in contrast to US dimes and quarters minted after 1964).
Posted by: David Levin | Oct 3 2022 20:44 utc | 67
Thanks for the warnings, b. Not to nit pick. But there are a few small things I wonder about.
When writing about the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Yves Smith actually wrote that nothing in the USA can compare to the disparities between the have and have-nots in the UK. I would suggest that this is not the viewpoint of someone with objectivity.
If it’s over for the American economy, then why all the bother with the Trump clan? Why did the FBI bother to raid Mar-a-Lago? And even more so, why is the State of New York pressing legal charges to prevent the Trumps from owning a business there?
I hate to bring up COVID, but — in countries such as my own, there were definitely efforts to prevent a dramatic loss of the population, which would have led to some loss of nation-statehood. The province of Quebec was extremely protective of its citizens. As was Cuba and Mexico among others.
Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 3 2022 20:45 utc | 68
@unimperator | Oct 3 2022 20:17 utc | 52
The way things are supposed to work, the more input intensive (energy, materials, education, etc) production is the greater multiplier effect it has on the economy.
The evolution of plowshares for example.
At question is, beyond a certain threshold what benefit is productivity to society?
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:46 utc | 69
What makes anyone think Powell will do what Bernanke and Yellen couldn't?
Had Yellen stopped one 1/4 pt rate rise earlier and stood pat, she may have succeeded in avoiding the reversal that followed. She went one step too far and failed (upward to Sec Treasury).
Powell has leaped ahead like a boiling frog. He will hit the wall soon.
Dow up 700 pts today. Exxon up 5%.
Still a bear market til it isn't.
Violent upswings are typical. Option volatility surges each month and is
Leveled off before surging again.
Lots or real estate pain to come too.
Posted by: 44Cadillac | Oct 3 2022 20:46 utc | 70
Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 20:25 utc | 56
42 feet? You must have been stark raving mad. (lol).
Bought a bit in Cairns once upon a time. Like everything else - it would have been better to buy a better piece but I didn't have the cash.
****
Thinking about assets to have, almost anything that is "desired" in Asia (China) would be a good place to start for "investments", and it is surprising what they do like. I've met people who collected Butterflies, Orchids and sea shells professionally for the "Asian" market. No inflation there, but scarcity of source material was the cause of rising prices. Once it becomes "known" as a cash earner the destruction is almost built in.
***
PS: 8 feet sounds better, and the pleasure of finding a good piece stays on as a happy memory.
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:52 utc | 71
@Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 20:25 utc | 56
@Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:52 utc | 72
---
Dynamite?
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:55 utc | 72
Re: gold/silver buying
Numerous precious metal (pm) bloggers and video bloggers have put it this way wrt gold/silver and which one to buy: gold is a timeless hedge and can be kept/passed down from generation to generation.
Buying silver is for a currency crisis where other countries but not the U.S. seem to be engulfed in currently.
This will also impact the U.S., but for now the dollar is still the only game in town. But that can change and it will likely hinge on the what China and Russia do and if they can escape the empire's wrath and the new multipolar paradigm emerges.
Silver is the most undervalued commodity on the market today, mostly through hardcore suppression by the Fed and the paper silver trading game which is complete bullshit. You couple this with bitcoin which I believe is being utilized to keep dupes away from precious metals by keeping supply up and you have a recipe for silver outperforming all other commodities in the not so distant future.
Interesting fact re: silver: JP Morgan is the largest owner of physical silver in the banking sector. Some banks will emerge from this smelling like roses, but it will be up to governments to once and for all to reign in speculation and restore a sustainable financial sector.
Iow, silver is more of a wildcard but is still the lynchpin of the western financial sector. If silver goes parabolic, this means that the towel has been thrown in the ring and the collapse is on.
If you can, take cash to your local coin shop and get to know them. Cash purchases mean your ownership is harder to trace when the gov't reinstitutes confiscation.
Gold is really the ultimate store of wealth, but silver has the most upside. Trade silver for gold when the ratio settles much lower than what it is currently at 1:80.
I will make this comment again and there is no jesting in it: I will rejoice when my parents' pensions and 401ks have run completely dry. It seems as though this has proven to be the only thing to redpill the normies. The elites think it will be their great reset...but it must be ours.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Oct 3 2022 21:00 utc | 73
Bruised Northerner | Oct 3 2022 20:45 utc | 69
"When writing about the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Yves Smith actually wrote that nothing in the USA can compare to the disparities between the have and have-nots in the UK. I would suggest that this is not the viewpoint of someone with objectivity."
To be considered part of the "rich" by the rich is to have over 100 million pounds. (Actually this figure dates to several years ago, it may be more now).
There is a vast social class system that was rigidly enforced. AT least, this was the situation some years ago. Anyone in the UK agree that this is still the case?
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:01 utc | 74
Dynamite?
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:55 utc | 73
It blows the shit out of the fruits of your labor. No one pays good money for sand.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 21:06 utc | 75
too scents | Oct 3 2022 20:55 utc | 73
"Dynamite?"
Powdered opals, but it might be a way to use up unspent artillery shells "for a good cause"....
***
PS, I suppose you could compress the opals or turn them into a sort of face powder?
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:10 utc | 76
I agree with the basic premise.
And Yves seems to base his opinions on sound fundamentals.
Serious finance professionals have been ignoring Roubini for going on 15 years. Broken clock and never (in my opinion) had anything new or interesting to add.
What it all boils down to is this.
Anyone who has kept an eye on money supply knew this was coming years ago.
The recent tightening act in the US won't last, we are about to switch back to QE. Biden will fire Powell if necessary.
Fed, ECB and BOJ are all in full Weimar Zimbabwe mode, there is no escape.
Posted by: Battenmountain | Oct 3 2022 21:12 utc | 77
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 20:31 utc | 61
... and energy, which is what the existential crisis is also all about.
"Energy" can be placed under the larger category of "Food." And, in a way, "Shelter" also has an energy component in that it can help limit the amount of energy a person loses to ambient temperatures.
As much as I rely/lean on fossil fuels I KNOW that I do not NEED to have them. I have two feet (attached to functioning legs!) to get me around. I have two hands (attached to functioning arms) to allow me to perform activities (I'd prefer not to have to do it, but if necessary I can manually cut and chop my firewood [my body is currently having an argument with my head over this!]).
But, that brings up a very salient point (of course!): Conservation of Energy! (energy cannot be created or destroyed, but there's still the importance/meaning in "work smarter" [don't waste energy that you used to perform activities- seek a gain on EROEI).
Posted by: Seer | Oct 3 2022 21:12 utc | 78
In addition to the disruptions mentioned above, these shocks could include societal aging in many key economies (a problem made worse by immigration restrictions
High immigration cuts off family formation by immediately flooding a place with lots of new adults who need to be housed. Immigration suppresses the birth rate in a place with the added burden of it being unsustainable by trying to manipulate the 'working age population' as if those people won't also retire. The baby boom was a boom, you can't escape the bust. But the freed carrying capacity will lead to renewed birth rates and a healthier more sustainable population pyramid.
Societies age and when enough carrying capacity is freed up by demographic transition you get a higher birth rate. The particular problem is the massive baby boom after the second world war was combined with longer life spans and uncontrolled population growth made worse by immigration.
Only a total idiot would think you could somehow trick nature by importing people to stop you having the 'burden' for 12-15 years of a high proportion of retirees (A level of which Japan has had without any breakdown or collapse of society) without thinking about what happens when those new people retire. It's the logic of a pyramid scheme.
The vast vast majority of immigrants do not add more wealth than they take, the vast majority don't add any wealth at all, they are a net drain on per capita GDP they simply redirect already existing capital in the society towards themselves and employers. Very few help to bring any new investment from abroad.
Posted by: Altai | Oct 3 2022 21:13 utc | 79
I called the 2008 collapse and I called the central bank f-up this time too. The problem this time is there is no safe harbour.
Posted by: Figleaf23 | Oct 3 2022 21:15 utc | 80
I remember hearing years ago that Deutsche Bank was a time bomb, wonder what shape the disaster will take when it finally blows.
Posted by: Tonplerch | Oct 3 2022 21:17 utc | 81
@Stonebird. Great anecdote and I think you should explore the link I provided earlier. Kinesis cracked it in terms of putting precious metals back in our daily lives via blockchain (for its ledger), debit card (for its ease of use), incentivized through yields (putting in effect Gresham's Law -wink to psychohistorian). Also, Indonesia is about to launch a private/public partnership to give the underbanked the chance to buy gold and use it as a mechanism to pay bills, save for the Hajj, remittances, etc. via a Kinesis white label. More here: https://kinesis.money/projects-indonesia/
Its a precedent and as enormous potential..
Posted by: Lozion | Oct 3 2022 21:25 utc | 82
Art. Actual stuff which is rare and as such will always increase in value.
Stuff like vintage cars.
Actual rare stuff.
Gold and most ‘precious’ commodities are constantly dug up , trawled from the deep sea and eventually mined in near space.
But Van Gogh’s Sunflowers will always hold its ‘real’ value.
But most people will never be able to afford anything valuable, it’s already bought up.
The London Art market has been super busy through Covid and still is.
No one really knows who owns what or where it even is!
Nft’s? Not proven. Cryptos? Even less proven - they are ultimately only useful as a currency not a investment. But that isn’t proved either.
Bricks and mortar? If you ever bought a property you will know the seller never gets what they best expect; the buyer determines the value. As in any auction or daily market stall
It’s only worth what anyone is prepared and capable of paying at THE time of sale.
There used to be the quaint old thing called guaranteed pensions. Only available to a chosen few now. The high priests.
That may offer the only real option if the private annuity rates return to some semblance of their 80’s -90’s levels ~ 5-7% FIXED and you have a sufficient cash pot to buy one to make a reasonable annual pension and hope that the inflation disappears in a few years.
The reason the US markets have increased and not fallen or stagnated across the globe is because the elites have decided to rally around the dying Dollar. By destroying their own currencies. Just as Putin said in his speech last week. They are not interested in their ‘Peoples’ just their fellow elite imperialists as per centuries.
I went to 50% cash last year, and threw out the anchor on my cash burn waiting for the coming armeggedon hoping to have enough of a pension pot left to partake in long term decent annuity. 20 years should be enough.
Good luck you all. Listen to what b says. And other voices on here.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 3 2022 21:25 utc | 83
Tannenhouser | Oct 3 2022 18:17 utc | 3
SUSAN | Oct 3 2022 18:27 utc | 6
………doom and gloomers ….pls provide knowledge on how people under western overlords or anyone for that matter could do w their investments….
Hah!! That would be “giving financial or investment advice”, which is forbidden.
Only “authorised” and “accredited” can give financial advice.
And those “authorised” and “accredited” are through their “training” then know they must “advise” you to do what everyone else is doing…. Buying property… shares, etc etc… ie/ surrendering your money to the system.
Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 21:25 utc | 84
Yves Smith and Nouriel Roubini are card toting WEF Klaus Schwab wannabe woketards that have been pumping Carbon taxes, credits and all other stupid schemes for years. They both live in New York and are part of the liberal Democrat machine intent on beating Russia into submission and stealing her lands and her resources. The fact that they are crying is a good thing.
While her analysis is correct, she still can't bring herself to understand that her years of green/liberal advocacy and propaganda are the real reason shit is hitting the fan and not the fault of Russia not bending over and taking it from NATO.
Trust me, people like these two are the carbon we need to reduce...
Posted by: Mario F | Oct 3 2022 21:26 utc | 85
*has.
Here is simple video introduction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c87_Jfo7NE
Posted by: Lozion | Oct 3 2022 21:27 utc | 86
so what does the "increase" in SNAP benefits mean again? (SNAP=welfare for the poor and lazy in the US, "food stamps". weight shifts at the top of the pyramid scheme...and someone else at the base gets crushed).
anyway, i can't follow all this high finance but i'm pretty sure that the real problem with Liz Truss is not financial but that she was not supposed to reveal the location of monster island.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Oct 3 2022 21:29 utc | 87
Seer | Oct 3 2022 21:12 utc | 79
Ahh but....
What about built-in obsolescence? Age is a period where some activity is good, but where even if the spirit is willing, the body may not be capable.
To a large degree I agree with you that it all comes down to assuring the basics, but doesn't the "basic" also include an element of social interaction? Man, or woman (or thingies), is not an island unto him-her-itself?
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:30 utc | 88
There is a vast social class system that was rigidly enforced. AT least, this was the situation some years ago. Anyone in the UK agree that this is still the case?
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:01 utc | 75
Not really.
The class thing in the UK has pretty much degenerated into the same shape as many other Western countries: the enlightened goodthinkers who run things versus the subhuman deplorables who need to be endlessly browbeaten about Current Thing. The kind of people who are bluechecked on Twitter, read the Guardian, have pronouns on their email signature, fret about "decolonising" or "decarbonising" things and so on ad wankium versus Sun readers who still like tits, football, cars, dogs, pints and other such normal things.
But you can be banished to the lower class for having the wrong opinions even if you're a Lord or an eminent scientist, while being working class and, frankly, a bit thick isn't a barrier to being a Shadow Cabinet minister (the actual Cabinet only includes posh thickos) and therefore the Ruling Class, albeit a junior member of the Ruling Class, whose upper reaches are naturally populated by billionaires.
Sure, there are still eccentric toffs, peevish middle class swingers and so on, and one hopes there are still doughty, social climbing Hyacinth Buckets blooming in the suburbs, but none of that matters from the point of view of what happens in our society. It's a binary split between the globalists and the normies, and unfortunately the globalists are in charge of basically every institution.
Posted by: ZX | Oct 3 2022 21:33 utc | 89
on the total cost for Germany so far:
i would estimate - just a ball park number - that the war did cost Germany about 2 trillion EUR so far.
main contributions:
- 15% reduction of EUR exchange rate. with about 10 trillion of German assets this amounts to about 1.5 trillion EUR
- EUR 300 billion of extra cost on government side
- 8% reduction of GDP expected for the upcoming winter gives another EUR 200 billion.
2 trillion, as said, is just a ball park number.
nevertheless, congratulations to the team in charge!
Posted by: Sternberg | Oct 3 2022 21:34 utc | 90
Lozion | Oct 3 2022 21:25 utc | 83
I think it was Dubai that had a gold ATM, where you could simply buy some from a machine. Solves problems.
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:38 utc | 91
Just like to say that out and out racists , anti immigrant posters here are beginning to line up in my scope.
But to end on a bright note, this is not a ‘unexpected’ crises but manufactured so that the ancients can move on to the next despoilment of Humanity.
Or as the Great Gill Scot- Heron had it FIFTY years ago (just some selected words)
#…
But, oh yeah, I remember
In this year that we have now declared
The year from Shogun to Ray-Gun
I remember what I said about Ray-Gun...meant it
Acted like an actor... Hollyweird
Acted like a liberal
Acted like General Franco when he acted like Governor of California
Then he acted like a Republican
Then he acted like somebody was going to vote for him for President
And now we act like 26% of the registered voters is actually a mandate
We're all actors in this I suppose
#…
What has happened is that in the last 20 years
America has changed from a producer to a consumer
And all consumers know that when the producer names the tune...
The consumer has got to dance
That's the way it is. We used to be a producer – very inflexible at that
And now we are consumers and, finding it difficult to understand
Natural resources and minerals will change your world
The Arabs used to be in the 3rd World
They have bought the 2nd World and put a firm down payment on the 1st one
Controlling your resources will control your world
This country has been surprised by the way the world looks now
They don't know if they want to be Matt Dillon or Bob Dylan
They don't know if they want to be diplomats ...
Or continue the same policy of nuclear nightmare diplomacy
John Foster Dulles ain't nothing but the name of an airport now
#…
So much for the good news...
As Wall Street goes, so goes the Nation
And here's a look at the closing numbers ...
Racism's up, Human Rights are down
Peace is shaky, War items are hot
The House claims all ties
Jobs are down, money is scarce
And common sense is at an all-time low with heavy trading
Movies were looking better than ever
And now no one is looking because
We're starring in a "B" movie
#…
https://genius.com/Gil-scott-heron-b-movie-lyrics
Yup they are all lyrics to that song.
Posted by: DunGroanin | Oct 3 2022 21:38 utc | 92
"By Benjamin Fulford .
Worldwide shoot-to-kill orders have been issued against all Khazarian Mafia members until they surrender unconditionally, according to an agreement made between MI6, the CIA, Mossad, the Russian FSB and other military/intelligence agencies worldwide. This is legal because the KM are actively trying to kill 90% of humanity. If they surrender, they will face Nuremberg-style war crimes tribunals. If they don’t, they face death."
Posted by: Gary Cooper | Oct 3 2022 21:42 utc | 93
The most severe consequences will be in the 3rd world, for want of food & fuel, millions, if not hundreds of millions will perish.
Posted by: Webej | Oct 3 2022 21:44 utc | 94
Seer | Oct 3 2022 21:12 utc | 79
energy, horsepower as a measurement took us into the industrial age. life expectancy without horses? for most very low. very hard life. without horses we go back to third world and less with times of famine and no medical stuff apart from some weeds. running down a piece of meat with a sharp stick or growing a few veg dependent on rain after digging up some ground with a stick would be a bit rough for most.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 3 2022 21:46 utc | 95
Tannenhouser | Oct 3 2022 18:17 utc | 3
SUSAN | Oct 3 2022 18:27 utc | 6
Further to my comment @. , even someone as spectacularly dressed as Kim Kardashian cannot be allowed to give “unauthorised” investment “advice”:
SEC Charges Kim Kardashian for Unlawfully Touting Crypto Security
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced charges against Kim Kardashian for touting on social media a crypto asset security offered and sold by EthereumMax without disclosing the payment she received for the promotion.
Kardashian agreed to settle the charges, pay $1.26 million in penalties, disgorgement, and interest, and cooperate with the Commission’s ongoing investigation.
The SEC’s order finds that Kardashian failed to disclose that she was paid $250,000 to publish a post on her Instagram account about EMAX tokens, the crypto asset security being offered by EthereumMax.
Kardashian’s post contained a link to the EthereumMax website, which provided instructions for potential investors to purchase EMAX tokens.
"This case is a reminder that, when celebrities or influencers endorse investment opportunities, including crypto asset securities, it doesn’t mean that those investment products are right for all investors," said SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
"We encourage investors to consider an investment’s potential risks and opportunities in light of their own financial goals."
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-183
Posted by: Melaleuca | Oct 3 2022 21:50 utc | 96
SwissGuy @47: "Apparently one line of NordStream 2 is still operational..."
And the other line was blown up twice. What more proof is needed that the Empire of Lies & Incompetence did it? Deluded retards put the second demolition charge on the wrong line.
Cue the imperial fanbois like trollwoda: "No! We meant to do that `cuz... reasons!"
Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 3 2022 21:51 utc | 97
Tannehous; don't buy gold, that is gambling, so is crypto; buy dividend paying stocks, Exxon, McDonalds, firms that actually manufacture things, that actually earn profits, not Tesla, nothing speculative; all that non-sense is getting wiped out. Don't even bother much with considering nominal values; like gold, or idiotic Apple; no dividends means you're just gambling. Dividends pay if nominal stock value is going up or down, often. Cash checks, don't gamble. Lot of people who are true believers in the benefits of Snake Oil, Karlofi
Posted by: scottindallas | Oct 3 2022 21:55 utc | 98
@ Posted by: Altai | Oct 3 2022 21:13 utc | 80
Immigration.
Origin of economic migrant problem, is stealing of 3rd World wealth by English pirate nation even today.
London and England lives off stolen money being brought by oligarchs from those countries which England has plotted to destabilize in last 30 years on a daily basis.
Those oligarchs are encouraged to come to England to deposit their stolen money in british bank. A real pig Pirate state.
Brits steal their resources, leaving an empty shell in the end.
That impoverishes those victim countries whose oligarchs have brought money to English pirates.
If elites of 3rd World refuse to bring money to UK then they face Maidan and colour revolutions staged by british and american spy agencies. So they have to comply.
Fact is that 60 percent of english economy is money and drug laundering established by the english govt since '80s. That is the reason refugees are created.. in victim countries whose creamy layer has been siphoned off to England pirate island.
(In 90s Russia was looted by England to tune of trillion of dollars so Russian poverty rate jumped from 1.5 % in S. U. time to 50 % in 90s) while London and British economy grows with only two recession in last 25 years.
To the Englishmen, Well you plunder their land and resources, help to keep dictators in powers, create Taliban and ISIS to further your geopolitical agendas then what do you expect.?
kick England out of Europe completely. Do not encourage parasites in Europe.
American diplomat-scholar George Kennan once wrote about the oil reserves in Persian Gulf — they are “our resources”, he wrote, integral to America’s prosperity and, therefore, the US should take control of them. (Which it did, of course.)
Second, the England and usa spent decades contributing to regime change and destabilization in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa and South East Asia . We can’t help set someone’s house on fire and then blame them for fleeing."
the Cayman Islands, Panama, Liberia and all the places that began to be set up by the mining companies, the oil companies and those that were set up beginning in the 1960s, essentially, by the CIA to finance the Vietnam War by making America, like England, the home for criminal capital and flight capital.
BTW - Immigrating to country X does not mean that you approve/like/are inspired by country X or its native people, this is especially true when country X is the one which destroyed your own country of origin.
Immigration is an extremely stressful exercise, even when done in very comfortable conditions, and even more so when done under adverse ones.
Posted by: Sam | Oct 3 2022 21:56 utc | 99
Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 3 2022 21:30 utc | 89
To a large degree I agree with you that it all comes down to assuring the basics, but doesn't the "basic" also include an element of social interaction? Man, or woman (or thingies), is not an island unto him-her-itself?
I'll answer this in a rather odd way (because I think oddly!)... I always eat before my dog. I tell my dog that if I don't eat then neither will it. The reality is is that "self" does matter: I am a "unit", but I try to keep a check on the "ego" thing. I am most assuredly thankful for good people (like many here): that I have the best partner there is (my dog comes second!) -my wife (two-time cancer survivor; I've got a pretty good grasp on what matters in life).
And to leave with one of the most important things I've learned in my life: "Time" is the only thing that one cannot get more of; use it wisely.
Posted by: Seer | Oct 3 2022 21:57 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
The cherry on top is Elon Musk's binding offer to buy Twitter for $44B that he doesn't have.
Posted by: too scents | Oct 3 2022 18:07 utc | 1