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Three Good Pieces On The War In Ukraine
I am busy with renovation work but here are three good pieces about the war in Ukraine:
> Plainly put, the Europeans have been nicely played by the Americans. India should take note of the US’ sense of entitlement. Basically, the Biden administration created a contrived energy crisis whose real aim is war profiteering.
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India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. <
> Increasingly, European publics are likely to blame the United States for policies that fuel inflation and bring on economic recession, especially as their currencies weaken against the dollar. The U.S. sanctions on Russia will be seen by many as self-serving attempts to dominate Western Europe.
A new iron curtain is now being imposed on Russia — this time by Western policy — even as the United States announces more measures to confront and “contain” an assertive China. This will result, inevitably, in more cooperation between Russia and China. Also, the increasing use of economic sanctions to achieve political purposes will encounter push-back with a greater volume of international trade conducted in national currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
As Europe is weakened and more countries suffer from U.S. sanctions, coalitions to resist U.S. dominance will flourish. Geopolitical competition will take precedence over action to deal with common problems, even as international conflict intensifies them.
What all the parties to the conflict in Ukraine seem to have forgotten is that the future of mankind will not be determined by where international borders are drawn — these have never been static in history and doubtless will continue to change from time to time. The future of mankind will be determined by whether nations learn to settle their differences peacefully. <
> What makes the "I stand with Ukraine" version of the Twitter mob unique is that it brings together two forces that used to be sworn enemies of one another—the woke Left and the neoconservative Right. It turns out they share many of the same loathsome ideological and personality traits, and have a similar "slash and burn" approach to political engagement. It's a new political marriage.
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This shift is disorienting, but on a purely tactical level, it makes a certain amount of sense. Neocons invented the cancellation game before there was even a Twitter board on which to play it. Neocons arrogantly dismiss the other side's point of view as argued in bad faith and not worth considering, and label anyone who dares question the cause as a heretic or traitor.
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Warping the debate in this way allows delusional and contradictory thinking to go unchallenged. Thus, we get the argument that Putin is a madman who will kill indiscriminately to achieve his aims—but he is also somehow definitely bluffing about using nuclear weapons. And he's only using that bluff because he's losing the war—but if he's not stopped in Ukraine, he will go on to conquer the rest of Europe. Putin's regime must fall because he has killed or jailed all the liberal reformers and yoked himself to a hardline Far Right, but somehow he will be replaced by a liberal reformer when his regime collapses.
It's nonsensical, and a real debate would expose some of the delusions in this thinking. But we aren't allowed to have one.
As long as this woke-neocon alliance is allowed to set the terms of the debate, we will continue to see a one-way ratchet toward greater and more dangerous escalation of this conflict. <
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-176
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Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-175
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-174
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Behind The Iranian Riots
Over the last weeks there were some riots in Iran. At first there were protest about the falsely reported death of a young women, Mahsa Amini, who had suddenly collapsed (video) while waiting in a police station. She died a few days later. Mahsa Amini had previously had brain surgery and her collapse and death were related to that, not to police action.
The protests by mostly women, and supported by a well known U.S. government employee, were soon taken over by separatist groups who turned them into riots. This especially in the northwestern Kurdish border region and the southeastern Baloch region. These groups are know to have foreign support. Police stations were attacked, cars were set on fire and night riots set off. In total some 24 policemen and some 100 protesters died.
It is not the first time that such riots are happening in Iran. The 2007 riots were launched after peaceful protests against a petrol price increase and the 2017 riots after peaceful protests over general economic hardship. Each time the protests were taken over by foreign directed groups and ended in serious riots that caused some death. After a month or two the situations calmed down.
Something similar is happening now.
As usual the riots have 'western' media support, most notoriously from the New York Times. Here is a fine example:
‘It Was a Massacre’: How Security Forces Cracked Down in Southeastern Iran
A New York Times analysis of witness testimony and videos reveals a bloody scene that unfolded last month in Zahedan during Friday Prayer, with mats as stretchers and bodies piled in cars.
Cont. reading: Behind The Iranian Riots
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-173
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The current open thread for other issues is here.
Líz Truss Continues To Be The Bad Prime Minister Everyone Had Expected Her To Be
In late September I stated that Liz Truss is the bad prime minister everyone expected her to be. The chaos her chancellor's mini budget caused continues to endanger pension funds. To recap:
As soon as the deceased queen was buried Truss went to work. Chancellor Kwarteng announced a 'mini-budget' that will lower taxes for people with high incomes while increasing the deficit to cover the promised energy cost subsidies:
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As soon as the 'mini budget' was announced the British pound sterling tanked. This not only against the overvalued U.S. dollar but also compared to the rather weak Euro.
Interest rates on British government bonds (Gilts) increased sharply.
After two days the British central bank, the Bank of England, had to intervene to prevent a Lehman like crisis that would have killed many British pension funds. The bank, which had just increased its interest rate to tighten money supply, reverted to quantitative easing by buying gilts in the open market. This will further increase the already runaway inflation.
On October 3 Truss had to trash her plans to lower taxes for rich individuals:
In a major U-turn, Prime Minister Liz Truss said Monday that the proposal to scrap the 45 percent rate for people earning more than 150,000 pounds ($168,000) had become a “distraction.”
Reacting to the news of the reversal, the pound rebounded Monday morning against the U.S. dollar, returning to where it was before the government’s tax-and-borrowing plan sent it plunging.
But Britain will still have a major budget deficit and gilts soon started to fall again. Three days ago the Bank of England again stepped in to save the nearly bankrupt pension funds.
Some saner members of the conservative party were finally preparing to oust her:
Cont. reading: Líz Truss Continues To Be The Bad Prime Minister Everyone Had Expected Her To Be
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-172
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The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-171
News & views not related to the Ukraine conflict …
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-170
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Misguided Foreign Policies Against Russia And Others Damage The U.S. And Its ‘Allies’
Political corruption, a lack of knowledge, and irrational foreign policies have brought the U.S. to a point where it is losing its primacy in the world.
In response to the 2014 U.S. coup in Kiev the Russian Federation supported ethnic Russian rebels in the Donbas region to resist that anti-Russian progroms with which the Nazi-controlled Kiev regime threatened them. This blocked U.S. plans to move Ukraine into NATO and to station U.S. missiles directly at the Russian border.
In 2016 the Democrats sought revenge by pushing fake claims of Russian interference in U.S. elections. To justify her loss in the presidential election Hillary Clinton created 'Russiagate', the false claim the Trump was somehow directed by Russia. She was supported by high ranking officials throughout the deep state and especially within the FBI. In hindsight their behavior was beyond belief:
An FBI supervisor repeatedly testified Tuesday that agents did not corroborate an explosive allegation from a former British spy of a “well-developed conspiracy” between the Kremlin and Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign before citing the claim as a reason to initiate surveillance of a former Trump campaign official.
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The FBI used the unconfirmed report, Auten testified, to seek court approval of a secret surveillance warrant to monitor Carter Page, a Trump campaign adviser, and then successfully got that warrant reauthorized on three occasions, based in part on the same, uncorroborated claim.
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Auten told the jury that shortly after receiving the first batch of Steele documents in the fall of 2016, a group of FBI officials met with Steele and offered him “anywhere up to $1 million” for information that would corroborate the claims in his reports. But Steele never did provide corroboration, Auten said in response to Durham.
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Steele had been hired to produce reports by research firm Fusion GPS, which had been retained by a law firm that represented Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton, and the Democratic National Committee.
'Russiagate' created a feverish anti-Russian atmosphere especially within the Democrats and their followers.
Adding to this was a serious ignorance of Russia economic and technological capabilities. U.S. politicians rely on biased media which created a false picture of Russia. I did my best to debunk that as often as I could:
Cont. reading: Misguided Foreign Policies Against Russia And Others Damage The U.S. And Its ‘Allies’
Ukraine – War Propaganda And News Items
Today Russia's missile and drone onslaught on Ukrainian infrastructure continues. I yesterday posted 25 headlines which over the last 7 month predicted that Russia would soon 'run out of missiles'.
For laughs: The 'coping' mechanism after yesterday's 200+ missile and drones is the very same I had debunked:
Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch – 14:48 UTC · Oct 10, 2022
As horrible as today was for Ukraine today, the sliver of good news here is that Russia likely can’t sustain this rate of missile launches. It’s very telling that they have not had this rate of long range fires since the start of the war.
The NY Times is lying:
With Civilian Attacks, Putin Gives Hard-Liners What They Wanted
'Civilian attacks' when, as the NYT itself reports, only 14 persons were killed and less than 100 wounded yesterday during 200+ missile and drone strikes:
The attacks killed at least 14 and wounded scores of others, while countless more in cities across Ukraine were terrified by dozens of incoming missiles explicitly targeting civilian infrastructure.
How many of those were killed by Ukrainian air defense misses is not known. It is sad that people get killed in a war but sometimes unavoidable.
The Ukraine military has killed way more civilians by its artillery strikes on Donetsk city. In 2003 U.S. 'shock and awe' in Baghdad killed at least 10,000 people. Israel kills hundreds of civilians during each of its frequent onslaughts on Gaza. Russia is obviously avoiding to kill civilians but still gets accused of doing it.
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Who is really killing Ukrainian civilians?
Cont. reading: Ukraine – War Propaganda And News Items
Russia, Having ‘Run Out Of Missiles’, Launches Barrage On Ukraine
Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.
After allegedly having 'run out of missiles' and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a 'barrage of missile strikes'.
But first came the propaganda blubber:
- 320 missiles in a day: Russia targets short-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine; what is the result? – WION – Mar 2, 2022
- Russia running short on guided missiles, firing indiscriminately – Ukraine – Jerusalem Post – March 17, 2022
- Russia Running Out of Precision Munitions in Ukraine War Pentagon Official – US News – Mar 24, 2022
- Russia running short of precision missiles, say western officials – Financial Times – Apr 29, 2022
- SCORCHED EARTH Now humiliated Putin is running out of MISSILES in desperate bid to defeat Ukraine, UK armed forces chief tells TalkTV – Sun – May 5, 2022
- Putin ‘running out of missiles’ amid claims quarter of Russian Army now lost – City A.M. – May 6, 2022
- Is Russia running out of missiles? US, Russia send mixed messages – Jerusalem Post – May 16, 2022
- Explainer: Is Russia Running Low on Missiles? – Moscow Times – May 17, 2022
- Has Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Missiles? – SOFREP – May 23, 2022
- Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons – UK Defense Journal – Jun 11, 2022
- Russia fires five-and-a-half ton Cold War-era missiles designed to destroy aircraft carriers at Ukrainian forces in the Donbas after running out of precision rockets, MoD says – Daily Mail – Jun 12, 2022
- Vladimir Putin running short of missiles as Russian forces turn to old weaponry stock – Mirror – Jul 8, 2022
- Putin left scratching head as Russia RUNS OUT of missiles to make ground attacks – Express – Jul 23, 2022
- Will Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Munitions? – National Interest – Aug 11, 2022
- Russia Has Run Out of Long-Range Missiles to Terrorize Ukraine – !945 – Aug 20, 2022
- No more than 45% missiles that Russia had before the war remain Chief Directorate of Intelligence – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 27, 2022
- Russia 'running out of Iskander and Kalibr missiles’ – The New Voice of Ukraine / Yahoo – Aug 27, 2022
- Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Russia Is Running Low On Missiles – The Drive – Aug 27, 2022
- Russian Federation will run out of shells, artillery and armoured vehicles by year end – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 31, 2022
- Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report – Newsweek – Aug 31, 2022
- Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine – Defense Post – Sep 1, 2022
- Alexander Kovalenko: when Russia will critically run out of missiles – Odessa Journal – Sep 2, 2022
- Russia Resorting to Out of Date Missiles as Weapon Stocks Run Low: Ukraine – Newsweek – Sep 4, 2022
- Ukraine believes Russia has less than 50 hypersonic missiles left because it can't get the chips needed to make more: report – Business Insider – Sep 6, 2022
- Out Of Missiles! Russia Is Left With ‘Limited Stock’ Of Hypersonic Weapons Due To Microchip Shortage – Ukraine – Eurasian Times – Sep 7, 2022
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Then a warning:
Cont. reading: Russia, Having ‘Run Out Of Missiles’, Launches Barrage On Ukraine
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-169
Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.
Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-168
Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:
sarah @sahouraxo – 16:38 UTC · Oct 8, 2022
NATO media before and after 2022
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Mark Ames @MarkAmesExiled – 13:23 UTC · Oct 8, 2022
Interesting that just a few days ago, US intel leaked to @nytimes that Ukraine responsible for assassination of Dugina & that US opposed it & had no knowledge of it. Almost as if Langley sought to indemnify US from the next operation on Crimean bridge.
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-168
Ukraine SitRep – Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides
Updated w/r to Starlink below (Oct 9 4:00 utc):
Yesterday saw two significant developments or incidents with regard to the conflict in Ukraine.
The Kerch bridges which connect Crimea with Russia, one for cars and one for trains, were sabotaged. At least one of the two road spans has fallen down while tanker rail cars on the parallel train bridge caught fire.
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CCTV footage shows that a truck exploded while passing the bridge. Here is a video of the damage. One of the two road spans seems to be intact.
As the pillars of the bridge seem unaffected a repair of the broken road span is possible but will take some time. The more sturdy railway bridge may have some superficial fire damage but Russia is one of the few countries that has designated railroad troops specialized in and equipped for railway repairs. The railway traffic is likely to be back within a few day or weeks.
This is a severe handicap for Russian logistics to the frontlines in south Ukraine but not a catastrophe as alternative rail and road routes, as well as ferries, are available. Military logistics is designed to work even under significant constrains. It will find ways to work around the problem.
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Meanwhile the Ukrainian side of the conflict experiences a communication failure that is likely way more consequential.
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep – Recent Incidents Of Concern For All Sides
Biden’s Fearmongers About A Russian Nuclear Threat That No One Has Made
The Biden administration is spewing ridiculous fear mongering propaganda:
Kaitlan Collins @kaitlancollins – 0:35 UTC · Oct 7, 2022
Wow. Biden at a Dem fundraiser tonight: “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.” He says Putin is “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical,” nuclear or biological weapons because his military is underperforming.
Biden continued with the blunt warnings: “I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.” (These 👀 quotes from pooler @tparti)
Biden going MUCH further than his officials have, from the National Security Council to the Pentagon. They have said they take Russia's threats seriously, but haven't seen any changes in its nuclear posture. Biden invokes Armageddon and says Putin should be taken seriously.
A copy of the pool report can be seen here. It quotes Biden as saying: "[Putin] is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is you might say is significantly underperforming."
Fact is that Putin has not talked about the "potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons." Not. At. All.
On September 21 Putin announced a partial mobilization of reservists. In his TV speech he mentioned nuclear weapons only with regards to 'Western' threats of using them:
Cont. reading: Biden’s Fearmongers About A Russian Nuclear Threat That No One Has Made
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-167
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Please stick to the topic.
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (NOT Ukraine) Thread 2022-166
News & views NOT related to the Ukraine conflict …
EU Pushes For More Sanctions Which Will Come Back To Bite It
On February 22, two days before Russian troops entered the Ukraine, the U.S. and the EU put reams of sanctions onto Russia. They also confiscated some $300 billion of Russia's reserves that were invested in the 'west'. The sanctions had been negotiated between the EU and the U.S. and prepared for over several months.
The idea was to bankrupt Russia within a few weeks. The deluded people behind those sanctions had no idea how big and sanctions proved Russia's economy really is. The sanctions failed to influence Russia in any way but their consequences led to a shortfall of energy in Europe and increased the already high inflation rates. Inflation in Russia is sinking and its general economic numbers are good. The now higher energy prices generate sufficient additional income to completely finance its war efforts.
A sane actor would conclude that the sanctions were a mistake and that lifting them would help Europe more than it would help Russia. But no, the U.S. and European pseudo elites are no longer able to act in a sane manner. They are instead doubling down with the most crazy sanction scheme one has ever heard of:
Cont. reading: EU Pushes For More Sanctions Which Will Come Back To Bite It
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