An interesting article out this week was “The Secret ‘American Army” an expose on the effective nationalist group, THE OATH KEEPERS and their founder Stewart Rhodes who is on trial in DC. The trail, as the article exposes is rigged in many ways. The article further shows why the US Govt is scared of The Oath Keepers. This secret army has already defeated the Gov’t twice…without firing a shot.
https://watchingromeburn.uk/news/the-secret-american-army-2/

Posted by: Don Stevens | Oct 27 2022 19:21 utc | 4

More German economy fun:
430 year old German bakery closing – pleiteticker.de via Google Translate

The Sinzinger bakery from Otterskirchen near Passau in Lower Bavaria survived the Thirty Years’ War, Napoleon and two world wars – but not the current energy crisis. In 1591 the company received its bakery rights. Now the 430-year-old family bakery has to close all nine branches by February 2023. The reason is the increased energy prices.
“With all the rising energy prices and raw material costs, we can’t just continue the business,” said master baker Klaus Wagner to the world . The current challenges were no longer up to the task. Now 70 employees are facing unemployment – in addition to the main business, the company also operated branches in Windorf, Hidring, Künzing, Hengersberg, Ruhstorf, Passau, Grafenau and Schönberg. The baked goods were also brought to old people’s homes and butchers in the region with five delivery vans.
As late as June of this year, they were desperately looking for new employees – and even donated bread to the Ukraine.

Pleiteticker.de appears to be aggregating stories of economic downfall in Germany…

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 27 2022 19:51 utc | 6

@c1ue, #8:

Pleiteticker.de appears to be aggregating stories of economic downfall in Germany…

That’s a good thing. Let a hundred Pleiteticker.de bloom; let them bloom a decade. There will thus be hope that Europe will wake to Satan’s plot in play with NATO and Democracy and Freedom. It will bring peace and senses to all humanity.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 27 2022 20:03 utc | 8

Posted by: james | Oct 27 2022 19:29 utc | 5
Ian Davis’s Multipolar World Order (I’ve read all four parts) is such a mess in every respect that it is simply – really bad. It shows total misunderstanding of the current processes in the world while coming to far reaching conclusions. The research is based on a selection of not relevant sources and jumbles together things that are misunderstood to create a lot of confusion. It is contradictory and in some parts lacks logic. It’s not the first research Davis has done that has the same flaws. In essence he is saying – they are all the same. Well, we are witnessing on a daily basis that they are not all the same, and how not the same they are. I will add two recent pieces that you can compare to Davis’s.

Posted by: JB | Oct 27 2022 20:22 utc | 10

oilprice.com’s gasoline average just ticked above $3/gallon
Does it mean we’re going to retest the $5/gallon US national average from earlier this year? Note this index hit $4/gallon then…
There continues to be no upswing of capital investment from the industry; unless Biden plans to fully empty the SPR – it seems unlikely that anything short of the onset of a major recession is going to resolve the ongoing demand/supply imbalance.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 27 2022 21:50 utc | 12

@ JB | Oct 27 2022 20:22 utc | 12 / and 13
thanks jb… i appreciate your feedback and i enjoyed the 2 articles you linked to… i liked the quote on the top of the first one – “The rulers of the United States and Europe want to start a war with Russia before their own people start a war at home.”
the 2nd article is a bit more hard hitting and focused on the financial dimension of all this, which i continue to believe is most central to it all..
and i see europe has decided to use the money it has stolen from russia to pay for ukraines reconstruction – or that is what they are saying… funny enough, i happened to be thinking of paul robinsons website which has mostly gone silent – irrussianality… turns out paul has an article up from 3 days ago where he is writing for a canuck publication… some might want to read it as it is relevant to all of this here…
Financial war and its discontents
By confiscating frozen Russian funds and giving them to Ukraine, the West could be shooting itself in the foot

finally… it seems that typepad is still very messed up.. my post on the open ukee thread never went thru… hopefully this one does..

Posted by: james | Oct 27 2022 22:39 utc | 14

i want to post this example used to support a definition of plutocracy because i think few people really understand what the city of London is, why its so powerful and how its evil is likely to be the design basis of the great reset.
“A formal example of a plutocracy, … is the City of London.[10] The City (also called the Square Mile of ancient London, corresponding to the modern financial district, an area of about 2.5 km2) has a unique electoral system for its local administration, separate from the rest of London. More than two-thirds of voters are not residents, but rather representatives of businesses and other bodies that occupy premises in the City, with votes distributed according to their numbers of employees. The principal justification for this arrangement is that most of the services provided by the City of London Corporation are used by the businesses in the City. Around 450,000 non-residents constitute the city’s day-time population, far outnumbering the City’s 7,000 residents.[11]”
quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutocracy

Posted by: snake | Oct 28 2022 0:02 utc | 16

I’ll stop there, and invite any interested parties to respond.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Oct 27 2022 20:05 utc | 11
You make things seem so complicated.. All that is necessary is to outlaw government creating monopoly powers and transferring them to private owners. Copyright, patents, utility franchises, government contracts and partnerships are monopoly powers and allowing incorporation of NGOs and other tax benefit and government like entities.
2. make harms caused by mis-statement of, or omission of, fact in media that reaches an audience a tort and turn the tort lawyers lose.. it took tort law to deny the Tabacco industry..
3. eliminate the ability of any government office or official to keep secret his or her activities while in government no matter the excuse.
nothing else is needed.

Posted by: snake | Oct 28 2022 0:50 utc | 18

Jeffery Sachs speaks and gets shot down.
“Sach’s argues that what matters is a country’s unique governance culture: classifying countries in political systems (“liberal democracy or not”) is oversimplifying.
He doesn’t hold back when describing the US governance culture: “A semi-democratic white-dominated hierarchical racist society that aims to preserve privilege by the elites [and founded as] a slave-owning genocidal country”. Ouch!
That’s why he argues that “the biggest mistake of president Biden was to say ‘the greatest struggle of the world is between democracies and autocracies’.”
He adds: “The real struggle of the world is to live together and overcome our common crises” under thunderous applause.
He says “the solution in [this world] is to speak with each other more […] Our political elites in the US do not speak with Chinese political elites except to point fingers or to yell at them. […] If we would seat down to speak with each other, we’d actually get somewhere.”
Last but not least, he destroys the myth that “democracies” are more peaceful: “the most violent country in the world in the 19th century was the most democratic, Britain. The most violent country in the world since 1950 is the US”.
And he gets shockingly shut down by the host.
Here is the full video from the Athens Democracy Forum. (Use the toggle on the red line to skip to Jeffrey Sachs, who starts at 15 minutes).”
https://johnmenadue.com/extraordinary-intervention-by-jeffrey-sachs-at-the-athens-democracy-forum/

Posted by: daffyDuct | Oct 28 2022 1:46 utc | 20

Vintage Red posting, resurfacing from Lurkerheim…
A couple of discussions ago a John Helmer/Dances with Bears post was mentioned, The US Signals Readiness to Launch Nuclear Strike Against Russia, which received almost no notice amid all the “dirty bomb” discussion. Below are excerpts from Helmer’s post:
***
“Does the United States have the ability to instantly, within a few minutes, launch a disarming and unreciprocated nuclear strike on Russia? For decades, it was assumed that no, any US attack would cause an immediate similar response from the Russian armed forces. But now there is reason to believe that Washington has come to a different conclusion – and brazenly demonstrates it….
“This vulnerability can be exploited by delivering a so–called обезглавливающий удар (for Americans, the term is decapitation strike). A strike aimed at destroying the leadership…. In addition to the decapitating blow, there is such a thing as a disarming blow (удар обезоруживающий — counterforce strike). Its goal is to attack the nuclear arsenal of the victim country in such a way that the enemy, even with a workable leadership, simply does not have time to launch its missiles in response. To do this, the time for which the blow is struck should be less than the enemy needs to make a decision and pass the order to the launchers….
“The most common way to ensure a retaliatory strike is strategic submarines…. [but] Russian strategic submarines are few in number today compared to the Soviet times. Together with the qualitative superiority of the US Navy, this creates an environment where the Americans can destroy our submarines immediately before the attack begins. This, alas, is a fact known to specialists. At the same time, 44% of all strategic nuclear warheads in Russia are placed on submarines. And almost all of them are in two (!) fleet bases vulnerable to the first strike. The Russian strategic aviation has never learned to fight like the American one, and it is not a means of guaranteed retaliation.
“The combination of these factors creates a technical opportunity for the United States to launch a successful disarming nuclear strike against Russia without receiving a significant blow in response. At the same time, the intensity of anti-Russian propaganda is such that the western man in the street will not have to justify anything — from that perspective everything is already prepared.
“…. this [the sudden appearance of the SSBN West Virginia in the Arabian Sea, within range of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces in Omsk and Orenberg] is a demonstration that technically the United States can strike such a blow if it sees fit. And they’re not bluffing…. the risks of loss of surprise are very high. But their chances of success are not zero. With the visit of West Virginia to our ‘soft underbelly’, the Americans clearly show how far they are willing to go if they deem it necessary. The Americans are sending an extremely clear signal – for them, nuclear war is no longer unthinkable, and not impossible.”
***
As many note the immediate battlefield is the Ukraine but the war is between the RF and the combined US/NATO/West. Helmer writes above of qualitative and quantitative disparities between US and RF naval and strategic bomber forces—given that in the Ukraine theater we’ve mostly seen RF vs. US/NATO land weaponry, I’m interested in hearing MoA perspectives on what Helmer raises here.
Elsewhere in his post Helmer mentions that launching the sub-based ICBMs on a ‘flat’ trajectory allows them to strike their targets far more quickly (key to the counterforce strike goal) at a potential cost in accuracy if I read him rightly. I myself am not ballistics-savvy enough to comment on this but would very much like to hear from some of our esteemed barflies who are, as Helmer touches on the challenges of doing this only briefly. I have a hard time believing this vulnerability wouldn’t have already been noted and addressed by RF defense planners—is this such a new capability (or desperation strategy) by the US that they haven’t taken it into account until now?
The Neocon goal in the Ukraine was to regime change Russia, divide and colonize its territory and destroy Russia as a civilization. As they are failing in their goal via the Ukraine they might well choose an alternative, more strategic route to destroying Russia before going on to China. A strategic alternative that with dozens of ICBMs involved even if ‘successful’ might still destroy the habitability of the Earth.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2022 2:12 utc | 22

China is clamping down hard on VPNs now, post the 5 year congress. Express are doing what they can but it’s cat and mouse. It’s still just about possible to download a column before it’s shut off again. Then a wait of several hours for a brief window of time in which to comment.
B, please consider sending out your pieces by email as Dreizin does, as I fear we will be totally cut off soon.

Posted by: Walt | Oct 28 2022 3:51 utc | 24

Vintage Red again, ps to my above @Oct 28 2022 2:12 utc | 24
I know different barflies feel differently about him but Martyanov seems to feel the threat outlined by Helmer is unfounded in his most recent youtube post. But a simple blanket rejection, not speaking to specifics.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2022 4:11 utc | 26

Midterms are coming up. My prediction here: https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/midterms-a-bloodletting? Yes, the Republicans are going to take the House. But will that change anything?

Posted by: julianmacfarlane | Oct 28 2022 4:56 utc | 28

@Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2022 4:11 utc | 28
Russia has the mobile road-based nuclear missiles that are dispersed, the Topol-M (single warhead) and YARS (4 warheads). Operational range 11,000 km, which means they can cover the continental US. Then, even if just one missile launching submarine survives the US is also toast (or a few silos, hypersonic nuclear armed missiles, the nuclear torpedo etc.). Scientists have estimated that if as little as 50-100 nuclear warheads hit cities a nuclear winter will be triggered and all life on Earth (well at least all the “higher” life forms like humans) will cease to exist.
I agree with Martyanov, only Dr Strangelove would play with these odds.

Posted by: Roger | Oct 28 2022 5:54 utc | 30

On a positive note about something lighter.
Saw Robert Plant last night in concert.
Outstanding!

Posted by: jpc | Oct 28 2022 6:26 utc | 32

@jpc | Oct 28 2022 6:26 utc | 34

On a positive note about something lighter.
Saw Robert Plant last night in concert.
Outstanding!

Oh.. that’s an old favourite! LedZep will always have a special place with me. Btw., here’s a new favourite, Anoana by Heilung.
We do need good music to get through these very dark times.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 28 2022 10:20 utc | 34

@ Vintage Red
So, the US Navy takes out all of Russia’s patrolling SSBN’s, which Russia doesn’t notice and doesn’t respond to, and then launches a decapitation strike against Russia. Seems a bit of a stretch to me.
Posted by: Voice of Reason | Oct 28 2022 4:08 utc | 27
Out of 14 US SSBNs only about 4 are at sea at any moment.
US SSBNs cannot launch their multiheaded ICBMs from harbours, while Russians one can.
Every time one US SSBN leaves its pier it is shadowed by at least one Russian nuclear attack submarine (possibly more than one, not mentionning Chinese on North Korean ones, and or silent diesel electric ones).
They are as much as possible preys rather than predators.
In case of nuclear crisis, a noticeable proportion of them would be first off casualties. Same applies to Brits and French.
Additionally a lot of detection systems have been scattered over seas and oceans over decades…
Plus Poseidon might be fired at entire zones known for usual hiding of submarine foes.

Posted by: Greg Galloway | Oct 28 2022 10:40 utc | 36

The above is in response to Norwegian
We do need good music to get through these very dark times.
Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 28 2022 10:20 utc | 36

Posted by: jpc | Oct 28 2022 12:04 utc | 38

So… Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken arrived in Ottawa (“Looking forward to welcoming you to Canada, Tony” tweets FM Melanie Joly breathlessly.) This visit was not at all what I was expecting and it’s led me to wonder of a Biden-Blinken conflict, with the former sending the latter to Ottawa for some… gentle correction. Blinken’s in Montréal today. While Biden is in New York.
First – it’s Blinken’s first visit cross-border, politics, the subjects visit the monarch, in his/her/their castle, and not the other way around, yes? So visits are rare and should always be suspected of having another agenda.
I thought this is the visit where Blinken will cheerily pin whatever is about to rain down on Haiti on Canada’s leadership (that’s worth a visit to a vassal), but the Canadian establishment seemed to sidestep that one (which is really extraordinary, that must have been approved by Biden). Canada is sending a delegation to make inquiries, investigate, get the facts on the ground. La Presse is in Haiti, by the way, strong ties between the two Francophone regions.
Then, they made this visit, with proud Ukrainian descendant, Freeland to Café Ukraine in Ottawa. My first reaction was disbelief, who is funding this place (while others struggle to stay in business), but it became obvious to me, anyway, that this gathering place for new Ukrainian arrivals is run by intelligence agencies. Probably including Slavic speaking ones (Biden’s fingerprints, and Britain’s, would have to be all over that one.)

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 28 2022 12:14 utc | 40

Just to continue to spin off my @ 42
I think this piece from the New York Post is important
NYC tears down artsy $25K dining shed at Pinky’s Space, angering owners who said they had ‘zero warning’
https://nypost.com/2022/10/27/nyc-tore-down-25k-dining-shed-at-pinkys-space/
La Presse talks Blinken in Montréal
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-10-28/le-secretaire-d-etat-americain-en-visite-a-montreal.php
National defence reporter, David Pugliese notes a general to general confab yesterday, US and Canada
https://twitter.com/davidpugliese/status/1585799676598833152

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 28 2022 12:39 utc | 42

Where exactly was that dirty bomb supposed to go off anyway? In Ukraine, right? But you don’t suppose. … that it might have been elsewhere??

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Oct 28 2022 12:45 utc | 44

EIA reports US has only 25 days of diesel supplies left

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that, as of Oct. 14, the U.S. had only 25 days of reserve diesel supply, a low not seen since 2008.

To be clear: this doesn’t mean that there will be no diesel by the end of November. But it does mean that the reason diesel prices are high because there just isn’t much of it around, in historic terms.

Posted by: c1ue | Oct 28 2022 14:01 utc | 46

@ Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 12:45 utc | 45 who wrote
”
Your solutions are all top-down, and require massive political power shifts, which will be vigorously opposed by the existing socio-political order, and therefor will not happen until and unless there’s a revolution.
Please rebut that statement, or acknowledge that your proscriptions are impossible and amount to nothing but wishful thinking.
”
I am going to call the conflict between the West and China/Russia a revolution so you can understand about where that vigorous opposition we are seeing leads to. It is not wishful thinking .
All that said, I have been working/talking the bottom up local control stuff you talk about for 50+ years and keep beating my head against the implications of global private finance that infest/corrupt all economic interchange with their profit meme.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 28 2022 15:11 utc | 48

@Greg Galloway | Oct 28 2022 10:40 utc | 38
“Out of 14 US SSBNs only about 4 are at sea at any moment.
US SSBNs cannot launch their multiheaded ICBMs from harbours, while Russians one can.
Every time one US SSBN leaves its pier it is shadowed by at least one Russian nuclear attack submarine (possibly more than one, not mentionning Chinese on North Korean ones, and or silent diesel electric ones).
They are as much as possible preys rather than predators.”
***
Thank you, and very interesting that Russian SSBNs can launch in harbour while US ones can’t—do we know how many SSBNs Russia has? Martyanov in his latest video (4:30-7:00) seems to indicate that all SSBNs (US and Russian) are on patrol/ready to launch pretty much all the time and have no need to threaten readiness to strike in the way Helmer implies. Though Martyanov too is debunking Helmer, is he entirely off/out of date on this ‘SSBN tooth-to-tail’ ratio?
***
“Plus Poseidon might be fired at entire zones known for usual hiding of submarine foes.”
I can only imagine there will be immense coastal collateral damage were they used so. I’m sure less than that that would be done by the nukes carried by the neutralized subs but a more horrible calculus is hard to imagine.
@c1ue | Oct 28 2022 13:59 utc | 47
“44% of 6000 warheads is still a lot of warheads.”
Whatever would transpire with the climate, approximately 2700 nukes is way more than needed to ruin the biosphere for a long, long time. The worrisome thing is, having mentioned above knowing how US nuclear planners think from my youth, to them it’s not unthinkable. I have utmost confidence in Russia’s and China’s patience, intent and skill in threading the needle of dethroning US hegemony without provoking nuclear war, but little to no confidence in the US needle holding still to be threaded.

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2022 15:31 utc | 50

yalensis has a very interesting couple of articles about NGOs operating in Kyrgyzstan that some here would find very interesting….
https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/

Posted by: james | Oct 28 2022 15:55 utc | 52

The west has a disease , hypocrisy is very common, they complain about Iran helping Russia while all of them helping Ukraine , waisting tax dollars of American citizen whom needs it more than anybody else .
They occupy Syria and Iraq and they complain about Russia invading Ukraine which is always is Russian territory.
They steel oil and wheat from Syria bread basket illegally,
They help and arm Israel and defend the horrible crime Israeli commit against the Palestinian and they fuss around how come Iran is standing up to them .
What kind of law they are obeying by ?
They all are war criminals and deserve to prosecuted for all crime they committed , but the UN is their friend and body they can manipulate easily .
The new world order members should hit them so seriously that hurt them so well , that way may and just may be they will wake up and smell the roses but I am not so optimistic.

Posted by: Bobby | Oct 28 2022 16:09 utc | 54

The Heritage Foundation’s annual assessment of the Outlaw US Empire’s military is now available. The report’s Conclusion is where the ratings of the branches are provided along with the Foundation’s overall assessment:

In the aggregate, the United States’ military posture is rated “weak.” The 2023 Index concludes that the current U.S. military force is at significant risk of not being able to meet the demands of a single major regional conflict while also attending to various presence and engagement activities. It most likely would not be able to do more and is certainly ill-equipped to handle two nearly simultaneous MRCs—a situation that is made more difficult by the generally weak condition of key military allies. The downgrading of the Air Force from “weak” to “very weak,” downgrading of the Navy from “marginal” to “weak,” and a Space Force score of “weak” have led to the first downgrade of the overall score since the inception of the Index.
In general, the military services have continued to prioritize readiness and have seen improvement over the past few years, but modernization programs continue to suffer as the failure of resources to keep pace with inflation leads to cancelations, truncation, or delay. The services have normalized the reduction in size and number of military units, and the forces remain well below the level they need to meet the two-MRC benchmark.
Mounting U.S. federal debt and creeping inflation will pressure defense accounts further at a time when competitor countries like China and Russia are redoubling their efforts to expand and improve their military forces. If it continues on this trajectory, the U.S. risks falling very short in its ability to secure its core national interests.[Initial Bolded Emphasis Original; Italicized Emphasis Mine]

The question raised by my emphasis is, Why does a weak military “risk” the USA’s “ability to secure its core national interests”? Does the US National Interest still require the Plundering of other nations thus requiring a strong military? Given the fantastic amounts of money wasted on a mediocre at best military, shouldn’t that entire idea be rethought in light of the USA’s genuine interests, not those of Neoliberal Parasites and Neocon Imperialists? IMO, millions of Americans would agree with me here, and billions globally. Why not scrap most of the “weak” Navy instead of wasting further billions to try and raise it to strong? Just what part of the national interest is served by the Navy? The Air Force is rated “Very Weak” because its multimillion dollar planes don’t function.
I highly suggest barflies residing within the Outlaw US Empire share this report and my or your own questions with one and all. Afterall, what nation is going to invade North America? I don’t see any such threat. What national interest is satisfied though the projection of power? Isn’t it well past time that the utter futility in trying to be an Empire that controls the world is finally realized through an honest appraisal of the global situation? Or are those who people the government, think tanks and academia too immature to engage in such critical thinking and are only capable of finding ways to remain King of the Hill when that’s actually self-defeating?

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 28 2022 16:38 utc | 56

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 28 2022 15:42 utc | 53
“Humanity is maturing spelling the end of the Age of Empires, with the resistance and revolt provoking the chaos associated with paradigm changes.”
Two quotes come to my mind:
The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.
—Antonio Gramsci
and
Another world is not only possible, but she is on her way. On a quiet day I can hear her breathing.
—Arundhati Roy
Thank you for all you contribute here!
*
Posted by: juliania | Oct 28 2022 15:56 utc | 55
Thank you—Real Life ™ has me lurking most of the time nowadays but despite all trolls and tribulations I do follow here, and always am glad for the hope and humanity you bring to the bar!

Posted by: Vintage Red | Oct 28 2022 16:51 utc | 58

The new world order members should hit them so seriously that hurt them so well , that way may and just may be they will wake up and smell the roses but I am not so optimistic.
Posted by: Bobby | Oct 28 2022 16:09 utc | 56
Read the above posts more carefully, Bobby. Threading the needle is the only way. It takes patience but also a firm assessment of the real situation, which both Russia and China have the power to do at present – they have been doing it all along. They assume there will at some point be a rational assessment from whatever is left of western cogniscence. (Not sure if that is a word but it fits my point.) They know that cogniscence is woefully lacking but fortunately there are people with spirit in the west who take strength from the few who have risked their lives trying to bring that cogniscence to be. Their sacrifices remain in our memories which cannot be erased and only grow stronger as our heroes are attacked. It is that which we have to do, remember those who may have fallen but are not ever forgotten, beginning with Rachel Corrie.
The truth should be our weapon; nothing else. We are the stuff, the material of the future, so let the threading of the needle continue.

Posted by: juliania | Oct 28 2022 17:02 utc | 60

@50 Psychohistorian
Psychohistorian said:
I am going to call the conflict between the West and China/Russia a revolution so you can understand about where that vigorous opposition we are seeing leads to. It is not wishful thinking .
Tom replies:
The Russia/China .vs. West conflict is predator oligopolist gang A .vs. Rest Of World (some of those countries, incl. China and Russia are dominated or heavily influenced by oligopolists). Both China and Russia are hybrid economies, and make use of capitalism, and permit profit motive within their economies.
Where’s the revolution? It’s a turf battle over resources and markets. Like nearly all wars.
Psychohistorian said: …I have been working/talking the bottom up local control stuff you talk about for 50+ years and keep beating my head against the implications of global private finance that infest/corrupt all economic interchange with their profit meme.
Tom replies: OK, that much I understand and accept. So why is it when I advocate for local/household level ownership and operation of production, that’s not acceptable to you? No snark; I’m confused. Seems like you should approve of that idea.
I hope you’ll keep this dialog going, Psychohistorian. If you’ve truly put in 50 yrs on this, then I want to learn as much as possible from you. I’ve only put in … 20+ years to date. You could save me – and others like me – a lot of effort and head-wall banging.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 17:18 utc | 62

Interesting On the subject of global warming/climate change. A clue-free person(s), attempted to reinforce ignorance concerning models in general(sic). Or little knowledge can lead one up the wrong garden path!
How reliable are climate models?
Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean.
Climate Myth: Models are unreliable
“[Models] are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. But there is no reason to believe that the same fudge factors would give the right behaviour in a world with different chemistry, for example in a world with increased CO2 in the atmosphere.” (Freeman Dyson)
Basically :-
Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun. This is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can’t tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day – that’s weather forecasting. Climate trends are weather, averaged out over time – usually 30 years. Trends are important because they eliminate – or “smooth out” – single events that may be extreme, but quite rare.
Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future.
So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model. All other known forcings are adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional, as yet unknown forcings.
Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also been proved to make accurate predictions. For example, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully predicted the climatic response after the eruption. Models also correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.
Here, the models have understated the problem. In reality, observed sea level is tracking at the upper range of the model projections. There are other examples of models being too conservative, rather than alarmist as some portray them. All models have limits – uncertainties – for they are modelling complex systems. However, all models improve over time, and with increasing sources of real-world information such as satellites, the output of climate models can be constantly refined to increase their power and usefulness.
Climate models have already predicted many of the phenomena for which we now have empirical evidence. Climate models form a reliable guide to potential climate change.
Mainstream climate models have also accurately projected global surface temperature changes. Climate contrarians have not.
A study in 2019 led by Zeke Hausfather evaluated 17 global surface temperature projections from climate models in studies published between 1970 and 2007. The authors found “14 out of the 17 model projections indistinguishable from what actually occurred.”
In fact, the science on the subject of Global Warming/Climate Change is quite clear.
Denial is not a river in Egypt……

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Oct 28 2022 17:34 utc | 64

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Posted by: LP | Oct 28 2022 17:50 utc | 66

@JC | Oct 28 2022 17:06 utc | 62

The Firings Begin: Twitter…… Escorted Out Parag Agrawal, Twitter’s chief executive, Vijaya Gadde, the top legal and policy executive, (or censorship czar)

It is the Assad curse.
https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1586044655954558976

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 28 2022 18:10 utc | 68

commit – confirm… used the wrong word… confirm form resubmission is the message i am getting when i hit refresh… i think it is typepad problems which i the format moa uses…

Posted by: james | Oct 28 2022 19:15 utc | 70

@Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 19:24 utc | 71
On finance … you may wish to peruse this recent Bloomberg article ==> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/xi-s-6-trillion-rout-shows-china-markets-serve-the-party-first
That $6T sloshing back into Western markets neatly explains their stupendous recent strength in spite of horrendous macro fundamentals.
An interesting allocation indeed. Like spawning salmon swimming home to die.

Posted by: too scents | Oct 28 2022 19:33 utc | 72

In this urban environment I now live in, people mow lawns and grow ornamentals – pretty flowers, trees that produce nothing. I grow a veggie garden at the back – can’t do much this year – and fruit tees plus veggies at the front. I have no interest in bullshit. But my garden at the front is always raided by the fuckwits that grow flowers. In the so called west, we live in a civilization of blond bimbos. Exceptionally shallow people. They wave a rainbow flag and shout climate change. The men cut off their dick and balls to be women and the women cut off their tits to be men. The kids are sent to gender clinics. This is all considered normal. What the fuck is this world we are living in.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 28 2022 20:06 utc | 74

Norwegian | Oct 28 2022 18:10 utc | 68
The Assad curse. The problems when politicians tackle leaders.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 28 2022 20:22 utc | 76

Australia’s official propaganda channel. How shallow does your ind have to be to be taken in by this shit. The majority believe it. All about me believe it. Like the Ukrainians, these idiots will also be fed into the grinder by their bettors.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 28 2022 20:58 utc | 78

@ Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 20:28 utc | 77 who wrote
”
In China – which is a _very_ different culture than the U.S. – they’ve got a seniors-based management meritocracy that’s still enormously political running it. They appear to be more competent and more ethical than the U.S.’ gov’t is.
How do we get something like that? And even China’s gov’t has regular bouts of corruption, right?
”
By what factor do the masses outnumber the oligarchs? It is that multiplier that leads me to think that the masses have the upper hand if they can learn how to operate that Visible hand instead of believing the the Invisible one.
It is work to have good government but we are witnessing what bad government does for us so it becomes a question of how much are you willing to invest in a good social order? I don’t think our species is inherently lazy so it seems more a matter of direction and initial inertia to get moving in a better direction
Yes, there will be corruption and Jack Ma types but they help us keep focused on what is important because they challenge those things we value higher.
I think society does itself a disservice by not trying to exist other than under the jackboot of our current elite.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 28 2022 22:02 utc | 80

@b
When I load the site or reload the site, I get the following images (link expires in 7 days). The message varies, and sometimes it talks about trolls and malware. While the same applies to typepad itself, it does look unpleasant.

Posted by: Johan Meyer (2) | Oct 28 2022 22:26 utc | 82

@80 Psychohistorian, who said:
It is work to have good government but we are witnessing what bad government does for us so it becomes a question of how much are you willing to invest in a good social order? I don’t think our species is inherently lazy so it seems more a matter of direction and initial inertia to get moving in a better direction
Tom replies: Yes, it’s work to have good government. Look at how we struggle here at MoA to develop an accurate situation analysis. It’s hours a day. Few households can get that done, PH. So we (currently) have to delegate that work. There’s really no choice, that’s why the republic and representational gov’t is designed the way it is.
And that’s why the Chinese model of the Village Elders who’ve earned their chops over a lifetime of service seems attractive. The Chinese little people have delegated the function of gov’t to a competent proxy.
Here in the U.S…..well, not so much.
Let’s agree that there’s waaay more little people than oligarchs. But oligarchs have time and money and excellent education and patience and focus and multi-generational perseverance…and they’re often sociopathic. They’re not lumbered down with ethics the way we little people are. We’re really down in a hole, PH.
So, to equalize the game, the U.S. little people have to either:
a. Find a reliable group to delegate the thinking and navigation and resource allocation to, or
b. Figure out a way to do the thinking and navigation and resource allocation themselves
or, of course, some hybrid/blend of the two ends of that continuum.
That’s a very important fork in the road, and I’d like to hear your response to that logic.
If you’re on-board with that logic, then the next questions are:
1. which path or path-blend do we choose from a) or b) above?… and then
2. where do we want to end up? … and then
3. how do we go from where we are to where we want to be?

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 23:25 utc | 84

@85, aye, myself & me, who said:
If american’s want change they’ll have to revolt
Tom replies:
While we’d all love the results of a successful, well-directed revolt, the reality _appears_ to be that:
a. Pathways to revolt are very well-guarded, and
b. We don’t know what to revolt _to_, and
c. We (U.S. little people) don’t – broadly speaking – have the means, the temperament, the discipline, and the motivation to revolt, and
d. Revolts generally get co-opted by … yet another set of oligarchs-in-waiting, and
e. Revolts often make things very much worse for a while. See Russia. That was an excruciating revolt. Putin himself, on many an occasion, has advised for incrementalism, and he knows of what he speaks.
Please rebut.
And also, thanks for the correction re: “we have a republic”. Nicely done.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 23:57 utc | 86

@ Tom Pfotzer | Oct 28 2022 23:25 utc | 84 who asks what the path forward is…..all of the above
Work with others to identify what sort of mixed economy is desired
Work with others to determine what sort of bottom up plan, execute, evaluate processes work, pilot various and evolve on ongoing basis
During the efforts of the above, leadership should emerge naturally and the way that leadership is identified, vetted and supported needs to become a serious replacement for the Hollywood glamor/propaganda show currently…..and this assumes that we are far enough down the road where all the new leadership is not killed by the oligarchs.
And, above all of the above is the need to educate the public about the anthropological context of our current social order and the need/possibilities for growth/change

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 29 2022 1:11 utc | 88

ZH has a posting up with the title

China Rebuffing US Requests To Resume Military Dialogue Until “Red Lines” Respected

and ends with

Russian President Putin in a major Thursday speech called Taiwan “part of China”…

At least they are slowly educating the public about the relationship between China and Russia that us barflys keep noting the results of.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 29 2022 1:22 utc | 90

@psychohistorian | Oct 29 2022 1:22 utc | 90
The relation between China and Taiwan could not be more clear.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_2758

The United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 (also known as the Resolution on Admitting Peking) was passed in response to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1668 that required any change in China’s representation in the UN be determined by a two-thirds vote referring to Article 18 of the UN Charter. The resolution, passed on 25 October 1971, recognized the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as “the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations” and removed “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the United Nations.
…
On 23 July 2007, Secretary-General of the UN Ban Ki-moon rejected Taiwan’s membership bid to “join the UN under the name of Taiwan”, citing Resolution 2758 as acknowledging that Taiwan is part of China …

Posted by: too scents | Oct 29 2022 2:40 utc | 92

@too scents yes, good find. Everyone (and nation) has basically agreed since WW2 that Taiwan is part of the nation of China. The KMT also said so and still say so. They just send another confirmation memo to Xi for the 20th CPC Congress. Biden himself and all the other US Presidents have said so regularly and persistently. Funny that. No one in their right mind should believe a single word uttered by a US President without hard core supporting evidence it was true.
Something else happened 50 years ago in 1971 ….
Lewis Powell, a guy who was not a particularly amazing or charismatic distinguished supreme court justice but who was just a big-time lawyer fellow, was Commissioned by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (an Institution) to write a 40-some page Pro-Business Pro-Corporation Pro-Free Enterprise Memo.
It’s quite telling how in a little under 20 years so much was achieved (Reagan/Bush had come to power) and by 50 years later today all of it has been achieved ‘par excellence’! – the game has been changed entirely. How prescient (and astute) was he and his fellow travelers? Milton Friedman was a definite asset / actor as were many others.
So how come he was so successful in not only spreading his ideas but actually changing things in reality over time?
Here read if you’ve never done so: Powell Memorandum: Attack On American Free Enterprise System
https://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/powellmemo/
I’ll give Powell one thing, he is far more lucid, clear, specific and concise (and I’d suggest ‘compelling’ despite how ‘dry’ it is) than Putin or Xi, Modi and Hugo Chávez or the rest have ever been.

Posted by: SeanAU | Oct 29 2022 3:15 utc | 94

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-consortium-imposing-the-growing
A long article by Greenwald covering a lot of familiar ground.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Oct 29 2022 3:22 utc | 96

Argh, Those insufferable ‘gardeners’ !
Pompass anglo interviewing
interrogating NZ FM …
‘Why dont you join the family to frame those chinaman barbarians?’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBH5zqoKl-c

Posted by: denk | Oct 29 2022 4:14 utc | 98

A commentator demanded…
‘How is it that they are allowed to get away with this …’ ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3OY_oM5ziI&t=160s

Posted by: denk | Oct 29 2022 4:39 utc | 100