This morning at 4:20 local time the Russian fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol was attacked by nine unmanned aerial vehicles and seven autonomous maritime drones. Earlier a maritime drone that had run aground in Crimea and had been found and pictured.

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During today's attack a large U.S. drone had flown circles south of Crimea. It likely relayed data from and to the drones.

The maritime drones are British and Russia alleges that British specialists had trained the Ukrainian navy in using them. It also says that British soldiers were involved in the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline.

The Ukrainians published two videos shot by the maritime drones while attacking. One of the video shows extensive gun fire impacts near the drone from a Russian helicopter that is attacking it.

The Russians say that all the aerial drones and 4 of 7 maritime drones were defeated before they could caused damage. They also say that one mine seeking ship was damaged in the harbor. It is possible that the damage is greater than Russia admits.

As a consequence of the attack Russia declared that the deal which allowed for grain exports from Odessa has been suspended. That deal had already been in danger as the 'west' had not fulfilled its part of the deal which would have allowed for the export for Russian fertilizer to third parties.

I find it likely that Russia will take additional measures to punish the Ukrainian navy for the brazen attack. Additional attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure is another possibility.

Meanwhile all recent attempts by the Ukrainian army to penetrate the Russian held lines have failed. It is notable that these are now much smaller in size with just a battalion or in some cases just two companies in the lead.

It is now definitely mud season in Ukraine during which it is impossible to cross most farmland even on feet. This will hinder the attacking forces on both sides until winter sets in.

[Note: While the Typepad frontend now seems to again work, the backend, through which I edit, post and moderate, is still extremely slow – that is when it works at all.

I am therefore now sure I will be able to post later today as I had planned.

-b.]

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Only for news & views directly related to the Ukraine conflict.

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The current open thread for other issues is here.

After a recent system move Typepad, the hosting system this blog is running on, continues to have problems.

When you post a comment and get an Error 503 consider that your comment has in fact been posted. Wait a moment and reload the page to see if it is there. Do not post the same comment again or it will show up as a double (triple) post.

There are also some back-end problems that make it difficult for me to post and administer the blog.

There will be an additional maintenance period on Saturday to clean up the mess:

Typepad will be conducting further maintenance this coming weekend to address lingering issues as part of the continued migration to the new data center. During a window from 9:30 pm U.S. Eastern Time on Saturday, October 29 (01:30 UTC on Sunday, October 30) to 9:30 am U.S. Eastern Time on Sunday, October 30 (13:30 UTC on Sunday, October 30), there may be periods where Typepad blogs are down.

News & views not related to the war in Ukraine …

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Progressives urge Biden to push harder for Ukraine peace talks – 10/24/22 3:47 PM ET – The Hill

Thirty progressive House lawmakers wrote a letter to President Biden on Monday urging him to consider directly engaging with Russia and to become more assertive in negotiating a cease-fire in Ukraine.
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All 30 signatories have voted for more than $50 billion in various forms of assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion and in the letter expressed no regrets for doing so, tying the aid to Ukrainian military successes.
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“We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine and its decision to make additional illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory,” they wrote. “However, if there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.”

Progressive Caucus tries to clarify call for Biden to find diplomatic solution to Ukraine – 10/24/22 8:43 PM ET – The Hill

Cont. reading: The ‘Progressives’ In Congress Are Useless Wimps

Back in April it was widely reported that the U.S. government is intentionally lying about the war in Ukraine:

In a break with the past, U.S. is using intel to fight an info war with Russia, even when the intel isn't rock solid – April 6, 2020 – NBC News

It was an attention-grabbing assertion that made headlines around the world: U.S. officials said they had indications suggesting Russia might be preparing to use chemical agents in Ukraine.

President Joe Biden later said it publicly. But three U.S. officials told NBC News this week there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine. They said the U.S. released the information to deter Russia from using the banned munitions.

It’s one of a string of examples of the Biden administration’s breaking with recent precedent by deploying declassified intelligence as part of an information war against Russia. The administration has done so even when the intelligence wasn’t rock solid, officials said, to keep Russian President Vladimir Putin off balance. Coordinated by the White House National Security Council, the unprecedented intelligence releases have been so frequent and voluminous, officials said, that intelligence agencies had to devote more staff members to work on the declassification process, scrubbing the information so it wouldn’t betray sources and methods.

Despite knowledge that the U.S. government officials are lying to them 'journalists' at major U.S. media continue to report their 'not rock solid' claims as facts.

The New York Times reports on the northern Kherson region, where new Russia troops deployments prevent a long planned Ukrainian attack:

“They are not preparing to exit now,” Gen. Kyrylo O. Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, said in an interview with a Ukrainian news outlet, Ukrainska Pravda, that was published on Monday. “They are preparing to defend.”
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“They are creating the illusion that everything has gone,” General Budanov said. “At the same time, on the contrary, they are bringing in new military units there and preparing the streets of the city for defense.”

The loss of Kherson would be a severe military and symbolic blow for Mr. Putin, who has rejected requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the city.

A look at the map will immediately throw the last assertion into doubt.

Cont. reading: Media Continue To Push ‘U.S. Officials Said’ Claims Even When Those Are Obvious Lies

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Last week the Saudis publicly snubbed the Biden administration. Several outlet picked up on that.

• MBS head to head with Biden, US officials not invited to Davos – Oct 17, 2022 – Al Mayadeen
• US Officials Not Invited To Saudi Investment Forum: Organiser – Oct 17, 2022 – Barrons / AFP
• Saudi Arabia snubs US officials ahead of 'Davos in the Desert' – Oct 17, 2022 – Middle East Eye
• US officials not invited to Saudi's 'Davos in the Desert': organiser – Oct 18, 2022 – The New Arab
• US officials not invited to Saudi investment conference, says organiser – Oct 18, 2022 – Middle East Monitor

From the last one:

The CEO of the Future Investment Initiative (FII), the organiser of the "Davos of the Desert" Saudi investment conference said on Monday that US government officials will not be invited to attend the event at the end of this month. The reason, added Richard Attias, is so that the event does not turn into a "political platform".

The decision not to invite US officials, unlike previous years, comes amid rising tension between Washington and Riyadh over the recent decision by the Saudi-led OPEC+ group to reduce oil output by 2 million barrels per day, starting in November.
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"We are not inviting too many politicians," explained Attias, "because I realised that when you have political leaders on stage, the attention of the media, let's be very frank, is diverted to the political agenda, and we don't want the FII to become a political platform."

However, in an earlier press conference, the initiative's CEO said that at least "12 ministers of economy and finance" will attend this year's programme, with the possibility of inviting heads of state. "We will know in a few days who are the heads of state who are 100 per cent sure to attend."

The snub is significant. While lots of top U.S. bankers will take part the Biden administration will be given no chance to influence the Saudi investment plans.

However, the Biden's administration main propaganda outlet, the New York Times, won't have any of that. It depicts the Saudi snub as one done by the uninvited the Biden administration. It is also lying about the Biden administration's response:

U.S. Executives Are Flocking to Saudi Davos in the Desert – Oct 24, 2022 – New York Times
Some top American business leaders area headed to the Saudi business conference. But Biden administration officials, angry over the kingdom’s stance on oil production and ties with Russia, are staying away.

Cont. reading: Some Media Won’t Tell You When The Saudis Snub Biden

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Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

• Oct 17 – Three Good Pieces On The War In Ukraine
• Oct 18 – Ukraine – Drones Turn Off Electricity
  Related:
  – Suitcase With No Handle – Dreizin Report

  – Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine – New Yorker
  – To Defend Ukraine, It Is Time to Strike Iran – 1945
  – U.S. Sees Opportunity for Ukraine to Capitalize on Russian Weakness – NYT

  – Russian strikes cause blackouts in much of Ukraine, more flee Kherson – Reuters
  – ‘Total darkness and cold are coming’: Massive strikes hit Ukraine electrical grid – Washington Post
  – EXCLUSIVE At least half of Ukraine's thermal power capacity hit by Russian strikes – minister – Reuters

• Oct 19 – Blinken Falsely Blames China For U.S. Hostility Directed At It
  Related:
  – Biden’s China policy traces Cold War mental map – Asia Times
  – Beware a new generation of ‘Washington Warriors’ bent on deterring China – SCMP
  – Unlocked: Who Started the China War? Nasty Old Xi? Or Mean Old America? – Peter Lee

  – Fighting a Chip War on the Cheap – Compact Magazine
  – Biden Just Clobbered China’s Chip Industry – New York Times
  – GT Voice: Nightmare for US chip firms just beginning after latest ban – Global Times

• Oct 20 – Biden Manipulates Oil Price To Buy More Votes
  Related:
  – As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out – Economist
  – Russia Poised to Largely Skirt New G7 Oil Price Cap – Reuters
  – Making OPEC+ Subject to US Antitrust Law Will Backfire – Bloomberg
  – Who Blew Up Nord Stream Pipelines? | A Mystery! (video) – Matt Orfalea
  – Oil sanctions are only hurting us and helping Putin — there’s a better way – NY Post

• Oct 20 – The Lettuce Has Won. Liz Truss Resigned.
  Related:
  – The Party is Over – Craig Murray
  – Leader: The rout of the libertarians – New Statesman
  – The Brexit effect: how leaving the EU hit the UK (video) – FT
  – Britain Is a Global Laughingstock, and It’s Not Just Liz Truss’s Fault – Oborne / NYT
  – PETER HITCHENS: If Liz Truss was the answer, whatever was the question? – Daily Mail

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-180

Typepad, the service provider for this blog, is undergoing maintenance as they move their service from one data center to another one.

This is likely to lead to some outages of this and other blogs.

I am sorry for the inconvenience.

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In the race towards the use-by date the lettuce persevered.

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Liz Truss has resigned:

Liz Truss has resigned as prime minister and will step down after a week-long emergency contest to find her successor, she has announced outside Downing Street.
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The final straw for many Tory MPs appeared to be the chaotic scenes on Wednesday, in which a vote on a Labour motion over fracking led to mayhem in the voting lobbies, with shouting and jostling. Afterwards, a dozen or more Conservative MPs who rebelled did not even know whether they still had the whip.

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On July 7, when Boris Johnson stepped down, I wrote:

Cont. reading: The Lettuce Has Won. Liz Truss Resigned.

The Biden administration continues to bribe mid term voters with cheap gas prices by releasing even more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Remarks by President Biden on Actions to Strengthen Energy Security and Lower Costs – Oct 19, 2022 – White House

Earlier this year, because of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of oil and gas increased dramatically, and I acted decisively at the time.
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That’s why I have been doing everything in my power to reduce gas prices since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine caused these price hikes — these prices to spike and rattled international oil markets. (Clears throat.) Excuse me.
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Today I’m announcing three critical steps that my administration will take to reduce gas prices at the pump. First, the Department of Energy will release another 15 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending our previously announced release through the month of December.

On February 24 2022, the day Russia entered the war in Ukraine, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $92.81/bl.

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On October 19, 2022, the day of Biden's recent SPR release announcement, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $85.55/bl.

Cont. reading: Biden Manipulates Oil Price To Buy More Votes

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On Monday U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken made a curious remark:

China plans to seize Taiwan on ‘much faster timeline,’ Blinken says

Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused China of speeding up plans to seize Taiwan as Chinese President Xi Jinping looks set to secure a precedent-breaking third term at a Chinese Communist Party congress this week.

“There has been a change in the approach from Beijing toward Taiwan in recent years,” Blinken told an event at Stanford University on Monday. This includes “a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” he said. Blinken did not provide details about the claim of a shorter timeline and said China may be willing to use coercive means, a prospect that is “creating tremendous tensions.”

The Washington Post writer who formulated the above seems to be astonished that Blinken said such: "Blinken did not provide details about the claim of a shorter timeline …"

So am I. There is no evidence for Blinken's claim. President Xi has recently touched on Taiwan is his opening speech to the 20th National Congress of Communist Party of China. But the first part of his remark was purely factual:

"In the face of serious provocations from separatist activities by Taiwan independence forces and interference in Taiwan affairs by external forces, we have resolutely waged a major struggle against separatism and interference, demonstrating our strong determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and oppose Taiwan independence."

The more important second part about reunification was boilerplate and did not differ from previous formulations:

Cont. reading: Blinken Falsely Blames China For U.S. Hostility Directed At It

In early September Gallup did a survey in Ukraine:

More than six months into a war that many around the world (including Russia) thought Ukraine would lose quickly, most Ukrainians are resolved to keep fighting.

A clear majority — 70% of all Ukrainians interviewed in early September — say their country should continue fighting until it wins the war with Russia. Just over one in four (26%) favor negotiating to end it as soon as possible.

That 70% poll number is likely the high point as it came at a time that promised Ukrainian successes.

The situation for Ukraine has since gotten worse. Much worse.

Since mid September the Ukrainian counter offensive east of Kharkov has come to a halt. Despite serious Ukrainian losses the counter offensive in the southern Kherson direction has likewise not moved a lot. Both of these front lines are now stable. On the Donbas front the central Ukrainian position in Bakhmut (Artyomovsk in Russian) is in danger of being overrun.

Russia has mobilized some 220,000 reservists and some 70,000 volunteers. These are now in training and by next month most of them will be able to join the fight. The weather in recent weeks has become more rainy. Tanks and trucks can no longer move over open fields without risking to get stuck. In late November/December frost will set in. The ground will freeze and Russia will be able to launch large attacks.

Russia has also changed the war's rhythm. While it had so far refrained from hitting civilian infrastructure, aside from electrical transformer stations serving the railroad network, it has now launched attacks on thermal power stations and Ukraine's 330 kilovolt long range electrical distribution network.

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Cont. reading: Ukraine – Drones Turn Off Electricity