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Whodunnit? – Facts Related to The Sabotage Attack On The Nord Stream Pipelines
For decades the U.S. opposed European projects to receive energy from Russia. It wants Europe to buy more expensive U.S. oil and gas.
the Lemniscat @theLemniscat – 15:56 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
US plan was always to stop EU buying Russia's gas
2014
Rice:"You want to change the structure of energy dependence. You want to depend more on the North America energy platform … to have pipelines that don't go through Ukraine & Russia"
https://youtube.com/watch?v=aF0uYIjaTNE
Europe's, and especially Germany's industry, depends on cheap energy from Russia. Without it Europe will be de-industrialized and go broke.
The U.S. had threatened to disable the pipelines connecting Europe to Russia.
ABC News @ABC – 9:59pm · 7 Feb 2022
Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."
Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since…the project is in Germany's control?"
Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."
abcn.ws/3B5SScx
Currently the U.S. is winning its war on Europe's, mainly Germany's, industries and people. Yesterday's sabotage attack on the Nord Stream I and II pipelines, which are supposed to bring Russian natural gas to Germany, mean that the the war on Germany has entered its hot phase.
A question remains: Whodunnit?
Russia has no motive to destroy the pipelines it owns. These are valuable, long term assets and the gas that escaped from them yesterday was on its own worth some $600 to $800 million.
A pipeline that could be turned off and on again was a leverage point for Russia that gave it some negotiation power. A destroyed pipeline gives Russia no leverage. This is truly elementary. One can not spin that away.
During the war in Ukraine Russia has not stopped to deliver gas to Europe as contractually agreed. Instead European countries, Poland, Ukraine and Germany have blocked overland and sub sea pipelines that brought gas to Germany.
German people have protested against the U.S. ordered shut down of the Nord Stream II pipeline. (Nord Stream I was recently offline because Siemens was prevented by sanctions from maintaining its compressor turbines.)
RadioGenova @RadioGenova – 18:02 UTC · Sep 26, 2022
Thousands of people in Gera in Germany against Olaf Scholz's policy and the explosion of energy and gas prices. They demand an end to sanctions on Russia and the reopening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Demonstrations also in other German cities but EU media censors them.
Embedded video
A day after the protests the pipelines were sabotaged:
AZ @AZmilitary1 – 12:51 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
HERE IT IS
Footage from the site of a gas leak on the underwater section of the Nord Stream.
The video was published by the Danish military.
Earlier, the Kremlin said that it was most likely about sabotage.
The same opinion was expressed in the German government.
Embedded video
Yesterday's attack on the Nord Stream system is not unprecedented:
professional hog groomer @bidetmarxman – 15:51 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
In 2015, the annual routine underwater survey of the Nord Stream 1 pipelines came across a remote operated vehicle rigged with explosives right next to one of the lines in Swedish waters.
The umbilical cable had been cut. The drone’s national origin was never disclosed. 🧵
In 2015 Pipeline Journal reported:
[T]he Swedish military has successfully cleared a remote operated vehicle (drone) rigged with explosives found near Line 2 of the Nord Stream Natural Gas offshore pipeline system.
The vehicle was discovered during a routine survey operation as part of the annual integrity assessment of the Nord Stream pipeline. Since it was within the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) approximately 120 km away from the island of Gotland, the Swedes called on their armed forces to remove and ultimately disarm the object.
…
The national identity of the drone has not been verified so far, as many countries use Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) of a similar construction, [Jesper Stolpe, Swedish Armed Forces spokesman,] said.
To destroy a sub sea pipeline requires more than a ROV/drone delivered shaped charge.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas – 15:18 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
How strong is a Nord Stream pipe? Quite!
The steel pipe itself has a wall of 4.1 centimeters (1.6 inches), and it's coated with another 6-11 cm of steel-reinforced concrete. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tonnes, which goes to 24-25 tonnes after the concrete is applied.
It wasn't earthquakes that destroyed the pipelines. These were several well targeted and massive explosions:
A Swedish seismologist said on Tuesday he was certain the seismic activity detected at the site of the Nord Stream pipeline gas leaks in the Baltic Sea was caused by explosions and not earthquakes nor landslides.
Bjorn Lund, seismologist at the Swedish National Seismic Network at Uppsala University, said seismic data gathered by him and Nordic colleagues showed that the explosions took place in the water and not in the rock under the seabed.
The targeted explosions were not small:
Dagny Taggart @DagnyTaggart963 – 15:56 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
Swedish seismologists from Lund University noted that "at least 100 kg of TNT (perhaps more) were used to destroy the pipelines."
Here is where the pipelines were hit:
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The Baltic Sea is controlled by NATO. This from June 2022:
"BALTOPS, with the high degree of complexity, tested our collective readiness and adaptability, while also highlighting the strength of our Alliance and resolve in providing a maritime domain with freedom of navigation for all," said Vice Adm. Gene Black, commander, U.S. Sixth Fleet and Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO (STRIKFORNATO).
Led by U.S. Sixth Fleet, BALTOPS 22 was command and controlled by STRIKFORNATO. From the staff’s headquarters in Oeiras, Portugal, Rear Adm. James Morley, STRIKFORNATO deputy commander, was responsible for ensuring participants met all training objectives.
…
[Rear Adm. John Menoni, commander, Expeditionary Strike Group Two,] also noted several instances in which forces stepped beyond know warfare methods to push limits with new technologies at sea and ashore. “Whether it was mine-hunting UUVs, persistent Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance from an observable UAV, or demonstrating the value of the emerging Marine Corps concept of Expeditionary Advance Base Operations (EABO), our men and women continue to develop the tactics, techniques, and procedures that ultimately make meaningful contributions to Maritime Domain Awareness and increase the lethality of our forces.”
At sea, ships fine-tuned tactical maneuvering, anti-submarine warfare, live-fire training, mine countermeasures operations, and replenishments at sea. The Swedish submarine participating in the exercise, the U.K.’s Daring-class air-defense destroyer HMS Defender (D 36), and aircraft from other participating nations trained in anti-submarine warfare. Meanwhile, mine operations served as an ideal area of focus for testing new technology.
Scientists from five nations brought the latest advancements in Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios. The BALTOPS Mine Counter Measure Task Group ventured throughout the Baltic region practicing ordnance location, exploitation, and disarming in critical maritime chokepoints.
While the Baltops 22 maneuver already took place in June and July of this year the U.S. Sixth Fleet left the Baltic Sea only a few days ago (in German, my translation):
Big Fleet Group From U.S. Navy Passes [German island passage] Fehmanbelt
On Wednesday morning the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge, escorted by the Landing Ships USS Arlington and USS Gunston Hall, was en route towards west. Previously, the ships were part of US units that took part in NATO maneuvers and called at numerous ports in Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic States.
The "USS Kearsarge", flagship of the association and largest warship of the US Navy, which was in action in the Baltic Sea in the last 30 years, has 40 helicopters and fighter planes as well as more than 2000 soldiers on board, the escort ships about 1000. For the around 4,000 soldiers are heading back home on the east coast of the US after their six-month deployment.
Parts of the Kearsange operations in the Baltic Sea were dedicated to test special sub sea mine destruction technologies:
A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Public Affairs said June 14.
In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.
Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.
Off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, is where the pipelines were hit. Just days ago the USS Kearsarge was in that area:
AZ @AZmilitary1 – 13:52 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
An expeditionary detachment of US Navy ships led by the universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge days ago was in the Baltic Sea
It was 30 km from the site of the alleged sabotage on the Nord Stream-1 gas pipeline and 50 km from the threads of Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline
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AZ @AZmilitary1 – 14:12 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
On September 2, interesting maneuvers performed by an American helicopter with the call sign FFAB123. Then it was assumed that this board was from the USS Kearsarge air wing, and today more details were looked.
According to the website ads-b.nl , this call sign was used by 6 boards that day, of which we managed to establish the side numbers of three. All of them are Sikorsky MH-60S.
By superimposing the FFAB123 route on the scheme of yesterday's accident, we get a rather interesting result — the helicopter either flew along the Nord Stream-2 highway, or even between the points where the accident occurred.
On Twitter, meanwhile, there were screenshots of other flights of American aviation — the following screenshot was taken on September 13.
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The MH-60S carries big electromagnetic sensors which allows it to detect submarines, mines and – in the shallow waters of the Baltic Sea - sub sea pipelines.
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This overlay picture of two others posted above is especially of interest:
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The U.S. military is not the only force that was near the area of the pipeline damage. Just a 100 kilometer south is the Polish naval base Kolobrzeg (the former German Kolberg) which harbors mine laying ships and the 8th Kołobrzeg Naval Combat Engineer Battalion. Naval combat engineers are experts in blowing up anything that is under water, be it mines or pipelines.
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In 2021, while Nord Stream 2 was still being build, the Polish navy had interfered and endangered the pipe laying vessels in the very same place.
Artifaktus @bzyqer – 7:49 UTC · Sep 28, 2022
Gdy Wy mycie zęby, przebieracie się w piżamy i szykujecie do snu, jeden niestrudzony Polak wyrusza w swoją łodzią w kierunku Bornholmu mając na sercu dobro Polski a może i Niemiec …
Translated from Polish by Google
When you brush your teeth, put on your pajamas and get ready to go to sleep, one tireless Pole sets off in his boat towards Bornholm with the good of Poland and maybe Germany at heart …
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During the recent Ukraine crisis Poland has rejected to receive Russian gas. It closed the Yamal pipeline that transports natural gas from Russia to Germany. Poland continued to consume Russia gas. It received it from Germany which had received it through the Nord Stream I pipeline from Russia.
Poland and Denmark have build a new sub sea pipeline which connects it to the pipeline that brings Norwegian gas to the Netherlands and Europe.
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The pipeline was opened yesterday, the very same day the Nord Stream system was sabotaged.
Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland @PremierRP_en – 11:25 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
🇵🇱🤝🇩🇰 The #BalticPipe is a joint Polish-Danish investment in the energy security of the region.
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Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland @PremierRP_en – 13:43 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
🎥The launching ceremony of the #BalticPipe gas pipeline with participation of PM @MorawieckiM , PM of Denmark Mette Frederiksen & @prezydentpl @AndrzejDuda.
The Baltic Pipe is a strategic infrastructure project aimed at creating a new gas supply corridor on the European market.
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The Baltic Pipe has a capacity of only 10 billion cubic meters per year. The Nord Stream system could carry up to 110 cubic meter per year. All of which is needed to keep Europe's industries running.
For more on Poland's involvement, likely in cooperation with the U.S., read these informed speculations by John Helmer:
The explosions at Bornholm are the new Polish strike for war in Europe against Chancellor Olaf Scholz. So far the Chancellery in Berlin is silent, tellingly.
The Poles should be reminded that other countries also have the capabilities to sabotage sub sea pipelines.
Radosław Sikorski is a former Minister of Defense and Foreign Minister of Poland. He is now a Member of the European Parliament. Yesterday he posted a picture of the gas escaping the damaged Nord Stream pipelines and thanked the U.S. for blowing them up.
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Sikorski is married to the neoconservative writer Anne Appelbaum who is notorious for her anti-Russian and anti-German screeds widely published in U.S. media.
In 2014 during the Maidan coup in Ukraine another notorious neoconservative, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, told the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, who should become the new prime minister of the Ukraine. She famously expressed her opinion about European concerns: "Fuck the EU" Nuland said. She is currently the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.
Over the last decades Germany has financed the Euro zone with up to 1.24 trillion Euros. (See also this thread). This was possible because Germany was exporting lots of industrial products and had a yearly surplus from its trade. With Germany's industry going down because a lack of cheap energy that surplus will vanish. Europe, all of it, will become a poor continent.
Philip Pilkington @philippilk – 21:23 UTC · Sep 27, 2022
9/ The European energy war will likely go down in history, together with the Treaty of Versailles and the trade wars of the 1930s, as one of the biggest economic policy errors in history.
10/ Another thing: when Trump was elected on a platform of milder protectionism, many people rightly pointed to the 1920s and 1930s and warned against these policies. These same people appear to have supported these much more 1920s/30s-like policies this past year. Ironic.
This does not happen by chance or fate. It is part of a long term neoconservative plan for continued U.S. supremacy over the world. The Anglo-American axis is the only party to benefit from the recent events.
The U.S. allegedly warned Germany of sabotage of the Nord Stream system (in German).
This reminds of President Joe Biden's warning of a Russian invasion in Ukraine early this year.
It is easy to predict such events when you are the one who intends to cause them.
The U.S. knew that the Ukraine was going to launch an attack on the Donbas republics. The U.S. knew that Russia would intervene to help its brethren. Russia had said so. The Ukrainian attack started with artillery preparations on February 17. Russia intervened on February 24.
The above is a collection of the currently available facts. You can draw your own conclusions from them.
The analysis below is directed at the “you can’t rule anything out” crowd on this forum.
If we’re going to “not rule anyone out” you might as well go ahead and rule everyone in.
Objective of the analysis:
1. Provide a framework for consistent evaluation of all potential actors. This allows all potential suspects to be evaluated based on the same logical system of reasoning, without bias and provides a starting point for improving the iterative consistency of analysis.
2. Explore a second category off potential perpetrators outside of the immediately obvious ones of the USA, Russia, Germany, Poland: China 2. India 3. israel/Mossad 4. Iran 5. Ukraine 6. The UK (MIx)
3. Inquiry into the nature of “evidence” and how/if truth can be derived from it in order to understand how far any amount of evidence can go in “revealing truth”
Scope of the analysis:
• Causes and effects of the pipeline sabotage at the geopolitical level, excluding the technical nature and execution of the pipeline sabotage itself
• We do not examine the technical execution of the pipeline destruction, but the tactical execution
• Exclude the most obvious state actors (Russia, the USA, Germany, Poland, the EU leadership) and focus on the less obvious, but viable actors
• We exclude Non-State-Actors (The New IRA, Chabad Lubovitch, Freemasons, Japanese Yakuza, Italian Mafia, Illuminati, Black Supremacist Movement, Branch Covidian Sect, Falun Gong etc …)
• Particularly, this analysis operates without access to direct forensic evidence of the act (e.g captured saboteurs, filmed evidence, sabotage instruments with genetic material or traceable serial numbers etc …). The reason for this is that direct forensic is unlikely to ever be found in this scenario. This is in effect an analysis of Circumstantial evidence.
Assumptions:
• NS1, NS2 were sabotaged using destructive, local, explosive force in 3 locations along the pipelines
• The destructive force was not remotely triggered by integrated telemetry systems built into NS1/NS2 (i.e not a self-destruct mechanism installed by the Russians as part of the pipeline infrastructure)
• NS1, NS2 are completely not in use. They are not generating any revenue for Russia or supplying gas to the EU.
Motive Space
Independent of why any party may have enacted the sabotage, what are the complete space of reasons (within sane boundaries) why it may be sabotaged in general?
Why blow up a pipeline?
a) To benefit a competing economic project (e.g the Norway-Poland gas)
b) As an economic attack on a State and it’s people
c) To drive shifts to new economic policy (e.g, force independence from Russian gas supplies)
d) As a false flag by a third party to trigger war between competing states (e.g, the Lusitania, the Maine, the Gulf of Tonkin etc …)
Parameters of analysis:
What are the dimensions or axes along which we analysis each potential perpetrator?
a) Motive (weight = 20%) :
• “Motive” refers to a single reason which provides a compelling justification for carrying out an act. It is unique in that no other set of potential reasons could provide the same compelling reason for the act.
• Motive may not specifically translate to “benefit” in the economic or military sense but may include things like “retaliation” against states, or obtaining radical leverage over a a power bloc
(NOTE: “motive” is not to confused with mere benefits of doing a thing, which are neither unique, nor generally significantly compelling).
b) Means weight 10%:
• Does the actor have the technological, tactical, strategic and political means to execute the act?
c) Benefit (weight 10%):
• Cui Bono? What is the specific benefit(s) to be gained
• “Benefit” is not “Motive”. Benefit is more general, less unique as a driving force for carrying out the act and would primarily include significant economic and strategic leverage gains.
d) Deterrents (Risks/consequences) weight = 20%:
• Every act comes with risks, some serious enough to. deter the act completely.
e) Past Patterns of Behaviour (“Consistency with Past Actions”) weight = 5%:
• Does the prospective perpetrator have a history of executing similar acts?
• Patterns of historical behaviour on the part of States suggest long term policy which make such acts a standard part of it’s operating philosophy.
f) Implications (weight = 5% max if plausible):
• Whatever the verdict we accept on whether the suspected perpetrator was guilty of the act, implications will arise, and we must be prepared to accept those implications if we’re willing to pass a verdict of “guilty”.
• These implications may be significantly unrealistic to force us to revisit our verdict and assumptions and perhaps even change them …
g) Impunity / Immunity (weight = 20%)
• The “get out of jail free” card
• If a potential perpetrator holds the “impunity” card, i.e it’s highly likely to be able to get away with the act even it it should be found to be the perpetrator, it increases the likelihood that, given the benefits, utility, motive and past patterns of behaviour, the act would have been committed in the knowledge that the consequences would be insignificant.
h) Verdict:
• A determination of “Guilty or not Guilty?” can never be made in the absence of unambiguous forensic evidence. Even strong circumstantial evidence does not provide mathematical truth.
• All that can be done is pass a verdict of “Most likely to be guilty” by adding up the parameters a) to h) and ordering the perpetrators in sequence of likelyhood.
Now, on to our suspects:
1. China
– Motive : 0
• None. There is no single, strongly motivating political, military, strategic leverage that can be gained over Europe, by China in destroying Russian supply lines
– Means : 5
• While China has the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations it lacks the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea.
– Benefit: 5
• Same as India: Long Term gas supply contracts for supplying the EU with gas (of course, resold from Russia …).
– Deterrents: 0
• Loss of revenue due to enhanced EU sanctions as a consequence
• Loss of a geopolitical counter-balance to the USA and India (due to degraded economic trade links)
• Loss of diplomatic trust globally
• China is a culturally and politically conservative society with an aversion to risk
– Past Patterns of Behaviour (“Purity Test”) 0
• Modern China has no record of systematic use of sabotage for geopolitical ends.
– Impunity / Immunity 0
• Neutral: China doesn’t appear to have impunity in the event it is identified as the perpetrator. The EU can retaliate against China to a moderate degree economically but not militarily.
– Implications: 0
• If this act was executed by China it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions
• China is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU or Russia, have demonstrated an inclination to act against both interests
• Countries might have to consider potential Chinese subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purely Chinese economic gain
• The USA would have been justified in it’s singling out of China as a threat to the West, potentially increasing military tensions
– Verdict:
• Extremely unlikely: China has minimal motivation moderate means, no past history of sabotage and faces significant deterrent factors with no impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are implausible.
• score: 10%
2. India
– Motive : 0
• None. There is no single, strongly motivating political, military, strategic leverage that can be gained over Europe, by India in destroying Russian supply lines
– Means : 2
• While India has the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations it lacks the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea.
– Benefit: 5
• Long Term gas supply contracts for supplying the EU with gas (of course, resold from Russia …).
– Deterrents: 0
• Loss of revenue due to enhanced EU sanctions as a consequence
• Loss of a geopolitical counter-balance to the USA and India (due to degraded economic trade links)
• Loss of diplomatic trust globally
• India is a culturally and politically conservative society with an aversion to risk
– Past Patterns of Behaviour: 0
• Modern India has no record of systematic use of sabotage for geopolitical ends.
– Impunity / Immunity: 0
• Neutral: India doesn’t appear to have impunity in the event it is identified as the perpetrator. However, it’s unclear the EU has the means to retaliate against the India due to it’s political support by the USA and need for it’s counterbalance to China.
– Implications: 0
• If this act was executed by India it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions
• China is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU or Russia, have demonstrated an inclination to act against both interests
• Countries might have to consider potential Indian subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purely Indian economic gain
– Verdict:
• Extremely unlikely: India has minimal motivation moderate means, no past history of sabotage and faces significant deterrent factors with no impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are implausible.
score: 7%
3. israel/Mossad
– Motive : 10
• A historical animus against Germany, German interests stemming from the events of WW2 would provide israel with latent motivation for subverting German interests.
• A weakened EU will leave israel with more political power over the EU, thereby increasing the leverage it has over it’s institutions which israel may then use to support it’s objectives in the middle east
– Means : 10
• Israel has the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations and it posesses the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea due to the fact that it holds significant political influence over european governments via it’s intelligence agencies and embedded “influence operators” which have infiltrated european and american institutions.
• While not possessing the tactical and strategic means on its own, it is able to co-opt European and American institutions to act in its favour.
– Benefit: 10
• Economic: Long Term gas supply contracts for supplying the EU with gas (of course, resold from Russia …).
• Geopolitical: EU support in capturing the gas fields of Lebanon and Palestine
– Deterrents: 15
• Temporary degraded diplomatic relations with Germany and Russia
– Past Patterns of Behaviour: 5
• Negative: israel has a long established and well documented record of using sabotage to achieve geopolitical ends on a global scale.
– Impunity / Immunity: 5
• israel is essentially immune to any EU retaliation in consequence
– Implications: 5
• If this act was executed by israel it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions
• israel is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU or Russia, have demonstrated an inclination to act against both interests
• Countries might have to consider potential israeli subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purely israeli economic gain
– Verdict:
• Highly likely: Israel has significant motivation, significant means, a documented past history of sabotage and faces only minor deterrent factors with significant impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are highly plausible.
score: 60%
4. Iran
– Motive : 10
• Iran has a motive to weaken the European economy, weaken Europe geo-politically and may possess an animus against the EU due to decades of European sanctions and support for anti Iranian activities.
• Iran is in direct geopolitical conflict with Europe
– Means : 0
• While Iran has the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations it lacks the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea.
• Effectively, Iran has no means to carry out such an act of sabotage unless we attribute absurdly sophisticated technical capabilities to it.
– Benefit: 2
• Minor possibility of obtaining gas supply contracts to the EU.
• Offset by the presence of many competing suppliers.
• Minor reduction of EU geopolitical power, therefore ability to pressure Iran on the JCPOA and other areas.
– Deterrents: 0
• Risk of immediate military retaliation by the EU and USA
• Immediate nullification of all diplomatic relations with the EU
• Reduction of diplomatic trust globally
• Loss of diplomatic relations with an ally, Russia
• Iran is a culturally and politically conservative society with an aversion to risk
– Past Patterns of Behaviour: 0
• Modern Iran has no record of systematic use of sabotage for geopolitical ends.
– Impunity / Immunity: 0
• No impunity/immunity whatsoever from EU or US retaliation. Retaliation would be likely military in nature.
– Implications: 0
• If this act was executed by iran it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions
• Iran is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU or Russia, have demonstrated an inclination to act against both interests
• Countries might have to consider potential israeli subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purely israeli economic gain
– Verdict:
• Extremely unlikely: Iran has substantial motivation, no means, no past history of sabotage and faces drastic deterrent factors with no impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are implausible.
score: 12%
5. Ukraine
– Motive : 20
• Strong motivation to destroy NS1, NS2 in favour of it’s own pipelines to obtain political, strategic, economic leverage over the EU
• Strong motivation to retaliate against Russian infrastructure as part of military counter srikes
– Means : 7
• Ukraine has neither the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations and it lacks the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea.
• However it has been able to suborn the military and political institutions of the EU and NATO to serve it’s objectives and may have influenced NATO/EU countries to act
• We deem it to have the technical, tactical and strategic means to perpetrate the act.
– Benefit: 10
• Economic: Substantial Long Term gas supply contracts for supplying the EU with gas (of course, resold from Russia …).
• Weakening the EU, perhaps leaving Ukraine as the strongest state in Europe … ?
– Deterrents: 2
• Minor: Temporary degraded diplomatic relations with Germany and Russia
• Ukrainian leadership has a high appetite for risk
– Past Patterns of Behaviour: 5
• Negative: Ukraine has a recently established and well documented record of using sabotage to achieve geopolitical ends on a global scale.
– Impunity / Immunity: 5
• Ukraine is essentially immune to any EU retaliation in consequence
– Implications: 5
• If this act was executed by Ukraine it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions (Plausible)
• Ukraine is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU or Russia, have demonstrated an inclination to act against both interests
• Countries might have to consider potential israeli subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purely israeli economic gain
– Verdict:
• Highly Likely: Ukraine has significant motivation, significant means, a documented past history of sabotage and faces only minor deterrent factors with significant impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are highly plausible.
score: 54%
6. The UK (MIx)
– Motive : 20
• The UK has a stated motive, largely emotional and cultural, to perpetrate acts of destruction against Russian infrastructure.
• The UK has an opportunity to degrade and weaken a historical enemy (Germany) , leaving it as the most powerful state in Europe (we count the UK as essentially “in europe”)
– Means : 10
• Significant: The UK has the technical means for sophisticated sabotage operations and it posesses the tactical and strategic means to operate *effectively* in the Baltic Sea due to the fact that it holds significant political influence over european governments via it’s intelligence agencies and embedded “influence operators” which have infiltrated european and american institutions.
– Benefit: 10
• Significant Economic: Substantial Long Term gas supply contracts for supplying the EU with gas (of course, resold from Russia …).
• Significant: Weakening the EU, perhaps leaving the UK as the strongest state in Europe … ?
– Deterrents: 10
• Minor: Temporary degraded diplomatic relations with Germany
• The UK is a somewhat culturally and politically conservative society with a medium appetite for risk
– Past Patterns of Behaviour: 0
• Neutral: The British use of sabotage in false flags is unclear. (FYI – google is censoring results for research on this …)
– Impunity / Immunity: 2
• The UK doesn’t appear to have impunity in the event it is identified as the perpetrator.
• However, it’s unclear the EU has the means to retaliate against the UK due to it’s political support by the USA.
– Implications: 2
• If this act was executed by the UK it would indicate a level of technological, tactical and strategic sophistication far beyond the capabilities of NATO, the EU and the USA – OR –
• An egregious level of infiltration and co-option of European and American institutions
• UK is no longer a trustworthy economic and political partner for the EU having demonstrated an inclination to act it’s interests
• Countries might have to consider potential UK subversion and sabotage against their infrastructure in future for purelyUK economic gain
– Verdict:
• Highly likely: Israel has significant motivation, significant means, an unclear past history of sabotage but faces only moderate deterrent factors with some impunity from consequences. The implications of it being the actor are highly plausible.
score: 54%
Ranking perpetrators in order of likely-hood:
1. israel (60%)
2. Ukraine (54%)
3. UK (54%)
4. Iran (12%)
5. China (10%)
6. India (7%)
Conclusions
• As we can see israel scores the highest based on this systematic framework of analysis, followed by the UK, India and China scores the least. This corresponds to an intuitive sense of the likelihood these actors perpetrated the act.
• If we were to proceed mechanically according to this framework, israel could very reasonably be presented as a likely perpetrator of the NS1, N2 pipeline sabotage …
• This analysis shows that the space of potential perpetrators can be *reasonably* expanded far beyond the initial, apparent list of likely candidates. The truth is rarely cut and dried …
Finally, even if none of the identified actors are the actual perpetrator, this analysis indicates Germany is surrounded by parties which while ostensibly appear to be allies, have substantial benefits to gain in acting against it’s interests …
Potential next steps in this analysis:
• Perhaps apply this methodology to the USA, Russia, Poland and Germany ?
• Examine the combinations of actors working in concert to execute the act, on the premise that benefits, motivations, utility arises in commonality when more than one actor is involved …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 28 2022 19:00 utc | 174
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