Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 15, 2022
Ukraine SitRep – Hit On Dam Endangers Ukrainian Troops – Russians Defeat More Counterattacks

The BBC continues to misinterpret war news from Ukraine:Ukraine

Ukraine war: Houses flooded after missiles hit major dam

Russian missiles have hit a reservoir dam near the southern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, officials say.

Residents in some areas were told to evacuate, city head Oleksandr Vilkul said, but he added the situation was under control.

Ukraine said the strike was revenge by Russia for its recent counter-attack.

President Volodymyr Zelensky – who was born in the city – described Russia as a "terrorist state" after the attack on the Karachunivske reservoir.

"You are weaklings who fight civilians," Mr Zelensky said in his late night address on Wednesday. "Scoundrels who, having escaped from the battlefield, are trying to do harm from somewhere far away."

This was an apparent reference to Ukraine's recent military successes in a swift counter-offensive in the country's north-eastern Kharkiv region. It has seen Ukraine's army reclaim swathes of occupied territory, forcing Russian troops to retreat.

In his speech, Mr Zelensky said the reservoir had "no military value at all".

Zelenski is an idiot.

The Ingulet river, which the dam restrained, flows mainly north to south through Kryvyi Rih (Russian spelling: Krivoi Rog, Кривой Рог) to then turn southwest before it ends in the Dnieper.


bigger


On its southwest flowing part it demarcated the border between the Ukrainian and Russian held territory. During the Kherson 'counteroffensive' Ukrainian troops had used pontoon bridges to cross the river and to attack on the southern side. The hopeless attack across bare steppe continued throughout the last days despite huge losses on the Ukrainian side.


bigger

The hit on the dam was not in 'revenge' but will raise the Ingulet river and speed it up. It will wash away those pontoon bridges. The Ukrainian troops south of the river will be without resupplies and more easy to defeat. Or so the Russian's hope …

Moon of Alabama @MoonofA – 17:58 UTC · Sep 14, 2022
Replying to @chinahand

The Ingulets river that dam was on has demarcated the border between Russian troops in Kherson and the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian's crossed it for the Kherson 'counterattack' which is still proceeding. With the river now flooding they will be cut off from the northern side.

Here is a larger overview of the area. The Ukrainian position beyond the Ingulet is on the bottom left.


bigger

LiveUAmap puts the dam strike (yellow circled red bomb at the top) at a dam on a smaller reservoir northeast of Kryvyi Rih. After comparing pictures in the BBC report with aerial pictures I believe that dam hit is on the larger reservoir west of Kryvyi Rih. This is also consistent with reports of damages to water supplies in the city. That water comes from the larger reservoir.

This attack had a clear military value. It is not a 'terrorist' act. Water diversions for military purposes are a standard tactic in larger military operations. In April the Ukrainian side flooded large areas north of Kiev to stop Russian troops from moving towards the city. As the New York Times reported at that time:

All around Demydiv, a village north of Kyiv, residents have been grappling with the aftermath of a severe flood, which under ordinary circumstances would have been yet another misfortune for a people under attack by Russia.

This time, though, it was a tactical victory. The Ukrainians flooded the village intentionally, along with a vast expanse of fields and bogs around it, creating a quagmire that thwarted a Russian tank assault on Kyiv and bought the army precious time to prepare defenses.

The residents of Demydiv paid the price in the rivers of dank green floodwater that engulfed many of their homes. And they couldn’t be more pleased.

After their large move into the Kharkov region, from which the Russian's had withdrawn with only minor losses, the Ukrainian military has become a bit cocky. North of Kharkov it attacked Russian villages and positions across the border. Such attacks could help Russia to mobilize more troops. While the Russian military, aside from a big war, is not allowed to use conscripts in military operations abroad it can use those on the Russian side of the border. This significantly increases the pool of soldiers the Russian military can now use to counter Ukrainian moves.

Ukrainian troops also attempted to attack Lyman which is protecting the southern side of the remaining Russian positions in the Kharkov oblast. Professional Russian troops have now been moved there to replace Luhansk Peoples Republic's militia which had held the city. They will remove the Ukrainian troops hiding in the forests north of the Siverski Donets river.


bigger

The Ukrainians also attempted several smaller counterattacks on Russian positions in the Donbas region. All of those failed.

An expected large Ukrainian attack in the south of the Donbas region towards Mariupol has not yet happened but the Ukrainian side has increased its reconnaissance activities in the area east of Zaporizhzhia.

 

Comments

zidar @ 200
Interesting. In US there are definitely earthen dams with spillways and yes they seep. And are dangerous. Especially when neglected. But I will take your word about Soviet engineering and am not surprised to have met a bad source.

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 21:12 utc | 201

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 21:03 utc | 201
I was a big fan of early Dylan, and that kinda died over the years. why wouldn’t Cohen take credit, though?

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 15 2022 21:15 utc | 202

The Day of Serenity
‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾‾
I took me quite a while to get it but now, for me, it’s very simple; the overwhelming odds (1 with a lot of zeroes behind the comma before any other digit crops up) are that the US (and more) will be gone in “the Day of Serenity” before Russia even thinks about declaring war on Ukraine.
Russia’s leadership has by all circumstantial evidence been fully aware for decades, the rest of us/people like me (or at least I in case you’re all geniuses) are simply catching up to the details and finesse in play, the complexity.
The SMO might expand without limits and change in all sorts of ways including beyond Ukraine but regardless there’s just no benefit to launching an actual war on Ukraine.
Russia and friends are doing their best to avoid it all so the real question remains whether or not they are powerful enough to stop the US. So far they actually have been successful and in retrospect doing better than I ever dared hope.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 15 2022 21:21 utc | 203

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 15 2022 20:43 utc | 195
That is a very informative thread. He is a good enough analyst that shards of truth shine through the propaganda that surrounds them. The breakdown of the four distinct groups fighting (LDNR, Wagner, Army, Chechen guard) and their distinct set ups, culture, motivation, etc. was pretty convincing. I suspect that the regular military is a bit more motivated than he presents them (they are just undermanned), but the low status of the LDNR militias as well as their frustration has been confirmed independently several times in videos and such and I think there is something to all this. Much to ponder here.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 15 2022 21:24 utc | 204

Then there is the thesis (thesis is the correct word) that most of Dylan’s early work was written by Cohen. When yo are tired of war news look into that.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 21:03 utc | 201

I was aware and I believe that is what Joni was hinting at. She would be in a position to know. But it cannot be said out loud, because lawsuits and his status as a legend.
It is most obvious from lyrics of the “Blonde on Blonde” album, that Cohen helped out during one of Dylan’s many “dry spells”.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 15 2022 21:51 utc | 205

Yes, that thread paints a half way convincing picture.
Either the RuAF is indeed holding back its combat power for future operations, or…
Too many ghost soldiers, corrupt command corps, Soviet inheritance plundered by oligarchs, arms industry focused only on export not on rebuilding the armed forces ..
It’s possible that Putin was very annoyed having to preemptively attack in February as he knew the armed forces were years away from being prepared for such an operation.
What’s interesting about the propagandists thread is what he doesn’t address.

Posted by: Moaobsevee | Sep 15 2022 21:53 utc | 206

I always thought “Donbas” stood for the “Donets Basin” as well. Where does the double s that some use, ‘Donbass”, come from, the translation out of Russian?

Posted by: DakotaRog | Sep 15 2022 21:56 utc | 207

Scott Ritter send to sum up the change:
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/12/scott-ritter-why-russia-will-still-win-despite-ukraines-gains/

Posted by: David | Sep 15 2022 21:57 utc | 208

Hope b forgives the typo on my username.
I wanted to add, the most important branch of the armed forces for a great power is their strategic nuclear deterrent. This has obviously seen much investment in Russia.
The armed forces in a post Cold War context were seen as for putting out fires along the borders. Not for full scale conventional war against NATO as in Soviet times.
See Lester Graus book on archive.org for an overview.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 15 2022 21:59 utc | 209

Aslangeo | Sep 15 2022 20:54 utc | 199
Thanks for that very good summary.
So it looks as thought Russia is still feeding a considerable amount of energy to Ukraine. … Why don’t they cut them off altogether?
Hydropower and nuclear power won’t run vehicles or military equipment.

Posted by: Mummer | Sep 15 2022 22:01 utc | 210

Because Russia strategic aims, as stated, are the liberation of Donbass and Luhansk regions, and protection of crimea through land bridge.
Just because people here believe Russia is poised to steamroll through all of Ukraine does not make it so, even if they had the ability.
They do not have the manpower to do much more.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 15 2022 22:04 utc | 211

WJ | Sep 15 2022 21:24 utc | 206 – This is not unlike the U.S. military in many of our latest adventures of the last decades.
By many first-person accounts, there is simply an appearance of unified command and control. You really have a mishmash of tribes: regular army units, Rangers, Marine units, SF under military control, SF under Intel control, Blackwater mercs and PMCs under nobody’s control, CIA contractors, civilian ‘security’ contractors under State Department control.
Now toss in the marginal indigenous military (usually a mess) and the NATO Kill Club and now you have all that x 10 with foreign military and intel mixed in.
As far as real intelligence, nobody wants anybody else to know what they know, what they’re up to or where, so you necessarily have a massive overhead intel coordinating web smothering everyone and filtering everything while trying to keep the forces involved from killing each other. For US forces, that generally also means delayed, useless or much filtered crappy intel your particular tribe is deemed worthy of knowing. That intel often enough leads to dead civilians or soldiers. I challenge any enlisted US combat vet in the last five decades to dispute that unfortunate reality.
The Russian military probably functions just fine when used as a unified force against a hated enemy that threatens Russia. In the Ukraine SMO? I have to believe it looks a lot more like what Matveev describes. The only thing mitigating that is that things are probably marginally worse on the US/Ukraine side of the wire.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 15 2022 22:11 utc | 212

Technophobe | Sep 15 2022 20:00 utc | 186
“Why doesn’t Europe and the EU realize that its greatest enemy is the United States and not Russia?”
Klaus Schwab – Young Global Leaders…
EU countries and beyond are infiltrated and the EU itself is as well…
Actually, Technophobe, I get the sense that your question was insincere…

Posted by: DoesItReallyMatter | Sep 15 2022 22:15 utc | 213

aristodemos | Sep 15 2022 14:13 utc | 77
Dividing Korea resulted in “Korean War”. After WW2 VE Day [Victory in Europe’ Truman asked n got permission from Stalin to divide Korea. It was a deliberate set-up by the world-domination clique who knew they could pull it off.
Stalin’s Soviet Union was devastated in 1945 with economy crippled n 22-26,000,000 war deaths [compare USA, with 350,000 war deaths]. Their own recovery, even existence, had to be given 100% attention. Korea was not an immediate threat to them.
The resulting divide of Korea was n still is a USA insult to any talk about democracy…or sovereignty…or independence…or minding one’s business. Oh yeah, not to mention the simultaneous similar division in Vietnam!
Then, later, understand that Eisenhower was forced to end the stalemated “Korean War by truce [not victory] because it interfered with the planned “Vietnam War” when n if the French re-colonization failed…which it did…at Dien Bien Phu. The US knew the French re-colonization might fail n war on 2 fronts was not workable.
All the above happened, n is still happening as consequence from insane persons of unlimited, accumulated wealth and power which, itself, enables the use of overwhelming “technologies” of assassination n similar coercions, such as tortures [that MOA readers have not the capacity to even think about for more than 0.5 seconds.]
Now read this well… Those “technologies” are enabled by human minds that have been weakened by inherent/built-in mental garbage that we all carry that is empowered by too much of the aforesaid “accumulated wealth and power”. The consequence is increasing insanity. It could not have been better planned…how else to explain that, to my knowledge, no “human mind” has demonstrated total resistance to “unlimited wealth and power”.
Each of you, dear MOA reader, has been warned. Yes, I am also in this condition.

Posted by: chu teh | Sep 15 2022 22:30 utc | 214

It is ridiculous feature of propaganda that Russia is somehow not allowed retreats, casualties or even any tactical defeats. Who in a tennis match expects the top seed not to drop a game or even a set against the opponent?
In fact this thinking is not only stupid, it is toxic. The expectation of zero error creates inflexibility and tentativeness, where agility and resilience are called for. Think in terms of tensile strength and the ability to spring back versus rigidity and brittleness.
The big picture doesn’t lie. Ukraine is being pulverised, the Collective West is in turn wringing its hands and wagging its MSM tongue while the MIC impoverishes and hollows out civil society with millions homeless or set to freeze in their homes this winter.
The Empire of Lies is exposed and discredited. Hegemony is gasping its last agony breaths. A multipolar world is already being ushered in every one cares to look.
Who really gives a sh1t about 2000 SQ km of forsaken farmland paid for pointlessly dearly with Ukrainian blood and NATO treasure?

Posted by: Moses22 | Sep 15 2022 22:53 utc | 215

PavewayIV | Sep 15 2022 22:11 utc | 214
Putin’s approval ratings boosted from 60% to 80% with the SMO. Support for the SMO also greatly increased when Ukraine nazi’s posted their torture and murder video’s on social media.
For some months have have believed Russia wants a long war that is mostly limited to the eight year old frontlines. When the majority of Ukraine forces have been chewed up, that frontline may/will move to the border of Donetsk region and sit there.
I think the SMO is being used by Russia to shape the larger geopolitical battlefield and cannot be looked at as a standalone military operation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 15 2022 23:02 utc | 216

Opport Knocks, pretzel attacks,
Joni said everything about Dylan was always fake. Hmmm
Most of what I have is from miles mathis and I will say that his Dylan essays are full of more than the usual quotient of howlers. Almost as if he wanted readers to be cautious. No idea what to make of it. Seemed like he was cribbing most of it. So now Opport Knocks says he hears it, or has heard of it in some other context. Hmmm. Yeah, it does sound strong on Blonde on Blonde. Did you pick up on that by yourself, just from language?
Is it late enough in thread this OT will be OK?

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 23:06 utc | 217

@ PavewayIV | Sep 15 2022 20:43 utc | 195
good link.. thanks for sharing that… of course i am receptive to most of what the dude says, but i also share your position at the end of your post @ 214 which i quote “The only thing mitigating that is that things are probably marginally worse on the US/Ukraine side of the wire.” i would go so far to say it might be significantly more worse as the motive is money on the us/ukraine side.. i think that interferes with greater clarity.. also the idea that throwing money at something is going to help make it better… well, now i am going off on a tangent… thanks for your posts and commentary…
———————–
is this pick on bob dylan day? lol… i don’t really care much for l cohen myself, but since i am into sounds as opposed to words, i am not sold on words… cohen couldn’t make it as a poet, so he got involved in music and was ultimately successful with music.. but so much of what he does is poetry, not music.. the music is mostly lame as i hear it.. now that said – a lot of what dylan did musically was lame too, but some of it really wasn’t.. and i dig the fact he kept on reinventing himself.. for me joni mitchell is much more to my liking.. a real artist in every way of the word… i read dylans book chronicles.. i recommend it…

Posted by: james | Sep 15 2022 23:17 utc | 218

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 23:06 utc | 219
I’d have to go back and review the lyrics, I was more impressed by Blonde on Blonde than any subsequent album, including the much hyped Blood on the Tracks. My disenchantment with Dylan was more on a personal level, like the pointless smears of Phil Ochs, and then the fundamentalist christian tangent, followed by the ardent Zionist tangent, and just the quality of the music and lyrics in general went down. I’ll desist now, like you say, this is pretty far from the topic.
james, who can makes it as a poet these days? imo the poets became lyricists, I think Cohen’s lyrics fit well with his music, or maybe my inner cynic just loves dark depressing lyrics–“everybody knows the dice are loaded…” which aren’t for everybody, and maybe aren’t for people with a healthy attitude to life in general.
ok now I’ll shut up. sorry b.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 15 2022 23:30 utc | 219

@125 It is also an essential matter for the Western World Banksters who control the western governments. No price is too high. They have demanded the US government spend $50 billion on Ukraine which is a dribble piss in the ocean. The US spent 4 trillion on Iraq and Iran each. As long as there is a government to fund to bloody Russia’s nose, the Western Banksters will insist the US spend it.

Posted by: davidgmillsatty | Sep 15 2022 23:36 utc | 220

I am wondering when all the dictator lovers will stop jerking each other off?

Posted by: Muthaucker | Sep 15 2022 23:39 utc | 221

pretzelattack@119:
And just as with a young Elvis Presley on the Ed Sullivan Show, the camera will not pan below stomach level😁👍

Posted by: morongobill | Sep 15 2022 23:45 utc | 222

Why doesn’t the US understand that Europe is its greatest enemy? Who drug the US into both World Wars? Who drug us into NATO? What banking system has been the bane of America since America’s inception and continues to demand we fight these neoloberal wars?

Posted by: davidgmillsatty | Sep 15 2022 23:48 utc | 223

https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/fall-like-a-thunderbolt

There has been much ecstatic jubilation among Ukraine-supporters, and anguished hand-wringing among Russia-supporters, that somehow Russian forces were “surprised” and “humiliated” by the recent Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kharkov.
Let me therefore be perfectly clear: the notion that the Russian high command did not see this coming is, in my confident estimation, utterly absurd.
They observed its preparations over the course of many weeks. They knew much of the NATO-provided equipment shipped into Ukraine since the spring was not being used yet in battle, and had instead been diverted and hoarded to provide the backbone of firepower for an eventual counter-stroke.
They also knew that substantial numbers of the remaining cadre of Ukrainian professional soldiers had been pulled from the front lines to form the core of this attack, and that they were being supplemented by a significant infusion of “foreign volunteers”.
They knew that the cream of the thousands of new Ukrainian conscripts had been sent to Poland and Britain for rapid training according to NATO standards.
They knew NATO commanders had effectively assumed operational command of this force, and were calling the shots as to when and where it would be deployed.
And they certainly knew that, because this force was not present in the Kherson region for the limited counter-attack that took place there earlier in August, that the southern operations were almost certainly a diversion from the primary objective, which would be in the Kharkov region.

Maskirovka…. The linked article the quote comes from is relatively long and worth a read. Sections go into Soviet tactics and strategy used against the Germans. There is more after the section I quoted on the Kharkov ‘defeat’.
That the US pentagon spokesman is so reserved about the great Ukrainian ‘victory’ makes me think this analysis is correct.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 15 2022 23:49 utc | 224

PavewayIV
As for Russia hitting the dam gates, from all the videos I have seen it merely caused the river to run a banker with very minor flooding in low lying areas. Far different to taking out a dam wall in a valley. Virtually zero risk to the civilian population.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:00 utc | 225

@oldhippie and Opport Knocks
This is a Ukraine thread. I wrote something about Dylan and then noticed so am moving it over to the Open Thread.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 16 2022 0:02 utc | 226

james@220:
Knowing that you are a musician, I was hoping you would chime in on Dylan. Personally, I really wonder which girl he was singing about in Positively 4th Street.
Cheers.

Posted by: morongobill | Sep 16 2022 0:06 utc | 227

@ PeterAU1 225
Is Russia reluctant to fight against Nato commanders and Nato professional armues and volunteers?
Biden set up his stand in February that the US and Russia don’t fight, in case of escalation.
Many herecare frustrated by Russian timidity, but timidity about escalation sounds to me a very good idea.
Also I can’t rule out that flushing out Islamist extremism , assembling it and destroying it in one place was not a mutual policy of US and Russia in Syria. Why not jointly Nazism in Ukraine.

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 16 2022 0:12 utc | 228

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 23:06 utc | 219
can’t help myself…must respond…losing control….I think he was singing about Phil Ochs.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 16 2022 0:12 utc | 229

that was supposed to be to morongobill, thats’ what happens when you lose control of yourself

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 16 2022 0:13 utc | 230

Giyane | Sep 16 2022 0:12 utc | 230
I couldn’t realy understand what you are getting at in that post but as far as reluctance to fight nato – Russia is somewhat reluctant to destroy the world, itself included. M.A.D.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:17 utc | 231

I am wondering when all the dictator lovers will stop jerking each other off?
Posted by: Muthaucker | Sep 15 2022 23:39 utc | 223
Perhaps when all the western NATO dictators stop blowing the great dictator in Washington.

Posted by: Guernica | Sep 16 2022 0:19 utc | 232

This is a Ukraine thread. I wrote something about Dylan and then noticed so I am moving it over to the Open Thread.
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 16 2022 0:02 utc | 228
Thank you, though I found it quite interesting. Enjoy!

Posted by: Guernica | Sep 16 2022 0:29 utc | 233

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 15 2022 23:06 utc | 219
Joni said everything about Dylan was always fake. Hmmm
Most of what I have is from miles mathis and I will say that his Dylan essays are full of more than the usual quotient of howlers.

I had never read Miles essay on Dylan before, thanks for that tip. The biggest problem I have with Miles is that his Internet genealogy is as bad as the stuff he debunks.
My Dylan songwriter doubts first surfaced after the bio movies, including “I’m Not There’ (Cate Blanchett stole that movie). He was obviously on serious drugs much of the time after his acoustic/folk phase, and it would have been unlikely he could have written consistently as well as performed during that period.
I first encountered Joni’s comments on YouTube after the Nobel Award, when the hard core fans were effusing at his genius. It was only when I listened to my old vinyl and reread the lyrics that I made the Cohen connection.
I took the admitted blend of fact and fiction (such as Sharon Stone as a young Dylan groupie, etc.) in the most recent Dylan Bio film “Rolling Thunder Review” as an admission that they have been pulling our leg all along.
That is how good psyops work, they build on whatever they know you already believe and then pile on the bullshit.

Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 16 2022 0:29 utc | 234

I clicked on my link from 226 in opera and found it has a sign in blocker. Use reader view.
https://imetatronink.substack.com/p/fall-like-a-thunderbolt
Probably depends on browser but there should be something on the right side of the address bar that looks like an opened book. Hit the link then look for the opened book thingo on the right side of the address bar.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:30 utc | 235

….I think he was singing about Phil Ochs.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 16 2022 0:12 utc | 231
Now that is a name from the past: “Love me, love me, I am a liberal.”

Posted by: Guernica | Sep 16 2022 0:35 utc | 236

I am rather unimpressed with Russian army to date with 50% of Donetsk oblast still occupied by ukronazis.
If I was Denis Pushilin I would strike a deal with North Korean government to send 100K of their crack troops to clear out the ukronazis there.
I return freighters of grain and other goods.

Posted by: Lou Cypher | Sep 16 2022 0:36 utc | 237

@ morongobill | Sep 16 2022 0:06 utc | 229
thanks, but i am pretty green when it comes to knowing about dylan, although i have heard his music and read that autobiography of his… @ 232 pretzelattack knows more it sounds like! dylan was influenced by woody guthrie… i know little things like that but not much really..

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 0:42 utc | 238

As the article I linked is behind a sign in wall I will quote the rest of William Schryver’s maskirovka analysis.

Indeed, as the true nature of the events of the past two weeks comes into clearer focus, it is now possible to see that the Russians acted deliberately to provide the NATO commanders of this reconstituted Ukrainian force with some low-hanging fruit to blood their untested army, and provide it with a victory that would not only bolster its battlefield confidence, but more importantly serve essential political purposes at a time when western public support was flagging to a very discernible degree.
More importantly, from the Russian perspective, providing NATO commanders a temptation they could not resist would draw this fresh army into the open field of battle where it could then be isolated and ultimately destroyed.
Therefore the Russians commenced, several weeks ago, to withdraw all but a token force from the area containing the towns of Balakliya, Kupyansk, and Izyum – thereby presenting an irresistible opportunity for the commanders of this NATO-trained, NATO-equipped, and NATO-led force to demonstrate, as they imagine it, the superiority of western combined-arms warfare.
The subsequent attack achieved seemingly extraordinary success against the relative handful of Donbass militia and Rosgvardia troops left to defend Balakliya and Kupyansk. The Ukrainians and their “foreign volunteer” shock troops advanced mostly unopposed and occupied a fairly significant piece of real estate extending all the way to the Oskil River.
Relatively little soldier against soldier fighting has occurred. In fact, Ukrainian reports euphorically trumpeted the fact that the Ukrainian advance could not even keep up with the speed of the Russian retreat!
The “glorious victory” of this quasi-NATO army has – at least for the time being – launched the western media narrative into an unprecedented spasm of triumphalism.
Delusional reports of hundreds of abandoned tanks, thousands of casualties, and tens of thousands of captured Russian soldiers are circulating widely, willingly believed by those whose biases find them pleasing.
Western think-tank monkeys and retired-generals-for-hire move from one mainstream news studio to the next spouting fantastical nonsense about next liberating the Donbass, then Crimea, followed by deposing Putin and hauling him before a tribunal at The Hague.
And if that were not enough, many have even begun to openly discuss the long-desired western pipe dream of dismantling Russia altogether; cutting it up into a dozen or more smaller republics that will then obediently fall in line with the rest of the “rules-based world order”.
It’s all quite breathtaking to behold.
Few seem to be aware that the triumphant army that marched forth into the power vacuum the Russians created for them have been continually savaged by long-range artillery fire and airstrikes, which have already inflicted nearly 20% casualties upon the relatively exposed force.
Few seem to appreciate that the pace of the initially rapid advance has now effectively ground to a halt, caught between the Oskil River to the east and the Seversky-Donets to the south, and it has proven unable to achieve appreciable success against the concentrations of Russian forces it is now encountering on the other sides of those rivers.
And no one seems to be asking the most pertinent question: What will the Russians do next?
There seems to be a pervasive assumption that this apparent battlefield “victory” has been so humiliatingly complete that the Russians have been ruined; psychologically broken; that they are no longer capable of operations; that they are now a beaten, trembling mob of frightened “orcs” nervously awaiting the next train back to wherever it was they came from.
Those cheering as the victory parade rolls down the streets of Kiev, London, and Washington appear to have forgotten that Russia’s “special military operation” up to this point has employed a minor fraction of its military capability, and that the Russian objective, from the beginning, has not been to conquer territory, per se, but to comprehensively destroy Ukrainian military capabilities.
I think the Ukraine supporters might be engaging in an orgy of premature exultation.
I am persuaded the events of the past few weeks have been largely orchestrated pursuant to Russia’s ultimate objectives.
I am convinced the Russians remain masters of the art of maskirovka, and that the masters of empire in Brussels, London, and Washington – as they always have – continue to underestimate Russian strategic acumen, operational capabilities, and clever resourcefulness.
Even as NATO commanders in Kiev clink champagne flutes filled to the brim with looted Dom Perignon, and congratulate each other on a brilliantly conceived and expertly executed plan, I strongly suspect the other shoe is about to drop – and when it does, I expect it to fall like a thunderbolt on their unjustifiably inflated heads.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:46 utc | 239

One thing about the Russian leadership is they don’t lie. They simply let out just enough truth to lead you in the wrong direction.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:49 utc | 240

Posted by: Moscow Exile | Sep 15 2022 19:21 utc | 179
So, why are you in exile?

Posted by: Guernica | Sep 16 2022 0:54 utc | 241

I bet you Dylanologists know all about ‘Confessions of a Yakuza’, James Damiano and the copied paintings.

Posted by: dh | Sep 16 2022 0:55 utc | 242

I should have bolded these sections of the quote.
“And no one seems to be asking the most pertinent question: What will the Russians do next?”
“I think the Ukraine supporters might be engaging in an orgy of premature exultation.”
“I am convinced the Russians remain masters of the art of maskirovka, and that the masters of empire in Brussels, London, and Washington – as they always have – continue to underestimate Russian strategic acumen, operational capabilities, and clever resourcefulness.”
Paveway – that link you posted earlier – few seem to understand the Russian way of making war. All who have marched on Moscow in the past have paid the price.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 1:06 utc | 243

So the counteroffensive results in the speeding up of the donbass clearance. Good job milley. irreplacable losses for the us puppets and little more ammo or armor left in the depleted reserves to send them. russian operation proceeds to the inevitable conclusion, no need for full mobilisation.

Posted by: Oh | Sep 16 2022 1:06 utc | 244

Posted by: bevin | Sep 15 2022 18:22 utc | 163
. . no propaganda will be able to disguise the fact that fuel is hard to find, that supply chains are breaking up, that funds are being transferred from services to warmongering. And that while wages are stagnant, prices and rents are shooting up. And industrial jobs are disappearing.
All of which is in immediate prospect.

The people of the Soviet Union had a saying: “They pretend to pay us. And we pretend to work.”
The contemporary Western formulation is “They pretend to tell us the truth. And we pretend to believe them.”
Just as it is impossible to put the toothpaste back in the tube, it is impossible to restore credibility to a narcissistic, solipsistic, pathological self-assured “elite” once credibility is lost.
The range of lies are not confined to 404 and the origins of that conflict. Recent research raises significant question about the origins of COVID, there is the present political persecution of Jan 6 demonstrators, members of the Trump administration, and the present state of both the US and global economies.
The results of a recent poll are telling:
Among 15 potential future scenarios involving instability or political violence, the one that most Americans consider likely in the next decade is that the U.S. ceases to be a global superpower (50% say this), followed by a total collapse of the U.S. economy (47%).
SOURCE:
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/09/07/americans-evaluate-dire-political-scenarios-poll
All those who condemn the RF for going slow fail to recognize that Putin benefits because, as the song says: Time is On My Side

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 16 2022 1:18 utc | 245

So apparently the “Russian way of war” is to leave troops and equipment on the battlefield when executing their master strategy.

Posted by: Muthaucker | Sep 16 2022 1:25 utc | 246

@226 & 241 Thanks for that article Peter. (Got sidetracked by Bob Dylan for some reason).
“That the US pentagon spokesman is so reserved about the great Ukrainian ‘victory’ makes me think this analysis is correct.”
That’s right. But I think the Pentagon spokesman knows very well they’ve got their boys into a mess. They just don’t want to talk about it.

Posted by: dh | Sep 16 2022 1:27 utc | 247

In response to PavewayIV at #195
who wrote

I understand why Putin has no desire to fully mobilize and declare war on Ukraine and not sure I would want to see that, but it’s painful watching Russia’s piecemeal SMO army bludgeon it out with the US piecemeal Ukraine proxy army. Seems like a lot of unnecessary blood and death for this to unfold the particular way it has. In any event, the blame is squarely on the bug-eyed homicidal US/UK/NATO leaders from plans hatched years ago.

I agree it is painful to watch but it is the perfect example of the “death by a thousand slices” concept. I know this sounds sick but we should be happy the pressure is moving this situation along without MAD, yet. Will it continue that way all the way to capitulation of the cult at the top of empire? I don’t know. Their is a lot of social inertia in the top/bottom world even though a big chunk of it is ephemeral brainwashing to keep the curtain of control going.
It looks like their are cracks in the financial house of cards and if it falls without having a place to focus clear blame or empire can’t create a war with nations united behind it, then the cult at the top is going to have to admit defeat and I don’t know what that looks like. Part of me says since we all aren’t dead yet that it has been worked out and we are playing out the public face of the process.
I keep thinking it is important to destroy war equipment and zombie warriors that can’t be rehabilitated which seems to be somewhat the focus. Certainly the escape of some of those weapons to the wild poses problems but maybe if the underlying structure of our social systems are addressed, things can mellow out and we would not have as much war machinery to be pointing at “each other”…and maybe we won’t make more….

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 16 2022 1:34 utc | 248

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 0:46 utc | 241
Battle of Kharkov 2022 bears similarities with the Battle of Kursk 1943. The Soviets knew the Wehrmacht was coming and they utilized similar tactics: a thin forward screen to give unwarranted confidence to the leading spearhead resulting in the commitment of follow on forces to exploit the anticipated breakthrough at which point they found themselves in the Soviet kill zone until finally forced into retreat.
SOURCE:
https://archive.org/details/battleforkursk190000unse
A further similarity is found in the fact Hitler ordered Operation Citadel in part due to the need to mollify his minor allies who were growing concerned about the potential for a German victory.

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 16 2022 1:43 utc | 249

The Rand plan for Europe just leaked. America plans to use the war with Russia to disaster capitalism Europe and then vulture the remains.
https://nyadagbladet.se/utrikes/chockerande-dokumentet-sa-planerade-usa-kriget-och-energikrisen-i-europa/
This is the Rand report:
https://nyadagbladet.se/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/rand-corporation-ukraina-energikris.pdf
“Not only will this deliver a crushing blow to the German economy, the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse.”
SPREAD THIS EVERYWHERE AND DON’T STOP
TO THE BARRICADES!

Posted by: Razumov | Sep 16 2022 1:52 utc | 250

More meat grinding–day in and day out. Seems like 500-1,000 Ukie casualties daily, although I think both numbers are too low. That’s demilitarization and denazification –the twin SMO goals. And daily it grinds on. William Gruff made an excellent point about NATO feeding the meat grinder–Russia doesn’t feed it; Russia operates it. Remove the raw material and it grinds to a halt. But NATO doesn’t want to do that. Its goal is to defeat Russia on the battlefield; so, it keeps feeding the grist mill.
NATO began it; Russia will end it. I guarantee NATO won’t like the terms it will be forced to accept.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 16 2022 1:54 utc | 251

Maria with some clear and unambiguous words:
“Supply long range weapons and US becomes a direct belligerent, and we reserve the right to react….”.
U$A:
The United States is still not ready to supply Ukraine with ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometers, CNN reports citing sources.
“To date, the United States is still not ready to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with ATACMS systems, which they (Ukrainians) have been asking for several months,” the publication says.
According to sources, the administration of US President Joe Biden is unlikely to significantly change its approach to the aid package for Kyiv, considering the types of weapons already being delivered “effective.”
Officials do not believe that the situation on the battlefield has changed enough to make significant changes in strategy in the near future, despite Ukrainian requests to the Pentagon for long-range missile systems and tanks.
Seems the the media – traditional and social- is exuberant at the Kharkov “theatre”, but the pentagon knows the score….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 2:00 utc | 252

Old Hippie @ 209
Dylan peaked on his Highway 61 Revisited album, most specifically with Desolation Row, for which lyrical tour de force, he was awarded with the Nobel Prize. As a fellow Northwoods Minnesotans and having spent most evenings in ’65 in Greenwich Village; perhaps I have been granted a few insights.
Specifically, Dylan was born in Duluth and probably suffered his Bris in a building either on or very near Highway 61, which as it transits Duluth is known there as Superior street. One line: “God said to Abraham, Kill me a son. Abe said man, you must be putting me on. God said no, the next time you see me you better run. Abe said where do you want this killing done? God said had it out on Highway 61. If you know the Biblical account Abe’s son was saved in the last few seconds. “God” told him we could need to merely sacrifice Isaac’s foreskin.
Dylan’s account here was all very personal. His own man-root had been severed in the near vicinity of Hwy 61. That act officially made him a Jew. His bond to his mother, just established, was also severed. Trust was gone.
Though middle-period Dylan created other stellar albums such as “Self Portrait”, the feature of which was “Copper Kettle”; Planet Waves; Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid; Nashville Skyline with Johnny Cash; the rebellious Jewish kid from the town which once sported the biggest manmade pit on the planet, the Hull-Rust Mahoning mine in Hibbing; most clearly achieved his apogee with the Highway 61 Album. The deeply personal aspects of that album, particularly Desolation Row, which begins with a 1919 lynching of Black circus folks (“they’re selling postcards of the hanging”) and then hits the absolute peak of generational rebellion against previous generations with this line …”Ezra Pound and T.S. Eliot sitting in the captain’s tower, while calypso singers laughed at them and fishermen held flowers”. In that stanza he demolished the two previously greatest 20th Century American poets and assumed the throne for himself.
Though it’s entirely possible that some of his early retro-rocket stuff was engineered and maybe even partially written by Leonard Cohen; the total breakthrough with the relatively unknown to the masses Highway 61 Revisited album has long been celebrated by fellow poets and musicians as well as an informed intellectual or three as genuinely Dylan and in and of itself a masterpiece in lyrical poetry, carefully and precisely calculated for his own crazy-assed and totally distinctive voice.
Just this morning I tuned into Cohen’s Youtube combination of premiere offerings. He peaked with his timing and switching modes of voicing in “Everybody Knows”.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 2:11 utc | 253

Old Hippie @219
Oops. Been up too late. Couple glitches in previous like the #. Also it should be “fishermen hold flowers” rather than “held”. Also on Cohen instead of “voicing in” it should have been “voicing on”.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 2:16 utc | 254

Giyane | Sep 16 2022 0:12 utc | 230
Islamist extremism is a creature of Empire.
Wahhabism nurtured by the British in “saudi” arabia in the early 1800s and going forward to the 1960s….
Mujahideen, Al-Qaeda, salafists, taliban….. “moderate” rebels …all created by the U$A as a tool for use in Central Asia and Middle East.
The Nazis, both the original and the Ukrainian Banderistas and their alloys of Azov and Right Sector were also funded and fostered by the US.
So. No. Your theory is nonsense.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 2:18 utc | 255

Posted by: joe9211 | Sep 15 2022 14:51 utc | 93
Thanks for you comments Joe, your insight and intellectual analysis raises the debate to a higher level.

Posted by: Organic | Sep 16 2022 2:26 utc | 256

Karl 253
And the beat goes on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bS3O5zg290k
The music of my childhood and youth when I had optimism I always go back to. A sharp contrast to the current geopolitical world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 2:33 utc | 257

Persisting in hijacking a piece with an wildly off-topic thread is also a form of trollery and a very effective one. The commenter who introduced that topic has already pleaded to take the discussion elsewhere. Please respect that plea.

Posted by: petra | Sep 16 2022 2:35 utc | 258

Peter@AU1#241
When it comes to the study of war, the Russians are the masters. They have had to be, what after their incredible struggle in WWII and the Churchill and Truman almost immediately began the “Soviet threat” trope, highlighted by Churchill’s 1946 “Iron Curtain” speech at Westminster College in central Missouri (Truman’s home state).
At that time Russia/USSR was exhausted and having stayed out of 85% of the heaviest fighting and now in the economic catbird seat, the Di$trict of Corruption regime closely cooperated with the agenda of the highest financial elite to keep those WarDefense industries humming, particularly the airfarce with its bomber crazed psychopathic lunatics running the show (“Dr. Strangelove” anyone?
So Russia stuck to its guns in a somewhat figurative manner by emphasizing tactics and strategy at the Frunze Military Academy and other command and control schools. They fully developed the concept of the science and math of war while the greedy WarDefense industry in the U.$. focused on greed and profits, with much pro$titician grifting along the way. That corruptive set of influences has metastasized in recent times and no longer is a closely kept secret. Or as Leonard Cohen famously phrased it: “Everybody Knows”.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 2:37 utc | 259

Mutthacker @248
If you cease to get most of your noose and information from Boobtoob Noose channels and stick to alternative sites, you too will ascend to the status of recognized barfly.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 2:42 utc | 260

Too many commentators here seem to be defaulting to a position of supreme confidence in Russia’s strategy of running its Special Military Opposition.
Weeb Union has today noted that recent movement of Ukrainian troops suggest that Liman is in danger of being encircled.
Several telegram channels from Donbass continue to complain about the proximity of Ukrainian military to populated areas in the region. The shelling there has not been stopped. They also complain that Russia has withdrawn troops that were on the front in the west to the south to shore up defenses in latter region, thereby slowing offensive and leaving the area of withdrawal open to counterattack.
Belgorod is attacked almost daily now it seems.
Ukraine still has plenty of men. Still has fuel. Still has enough mechanized arms to do real damage. And they are getting more men and more arms in the near future from the UK and the US.
I understand that there are those who say the slow grind is intentional. But the fact remains that the longer and slower the grind, the more the operation is open to chance risks, events, flukes, etc. which in a worst case scenario could lead to serious setbacks for Russia—the encirclement of Liman for instance.
Russia attacked power plants for two days in selected regions, and then took out a dam, but appears to have dialed back again its attacks against infrastructure. It still is not conducting concentrated missile strikes against Kiev or Lviv even though doing so would seriously undermine the support structure for the Ukrainian army in the east.
I gather that Russia is playing the waiting game, biding its time until the winter freeze either forces Europe to break with the US or breaks the social compact on the continent. This gambit is not the sure win some make it out to be. It may work, but it may not. And if it doesn’t, what then?
The US could do this for ten years. Ukraine has millions of people. It has years and years of cannon fodder left. I can’t imagine Russia desires this operation to last for years. But I am not so certain that it won’t.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 2:43 utc | 261

Sushi @251
The battle of the Kursk Salient was won in large part at the German embassy in Tokyo. Dedicated Communist Richard Sorge was some kind of clerk at that embassy and the German foreign office was stupid enough to entrust highly secret documents to that facility. Sorge contacted his monitors in Moscow and they promptly got hold of an anti-Nazi grouping in “Der Vaterland” which was led by other dedicated Communists. They were known as “Die Rotte Kapelle” (the Red chorus).
Sorge’s information on the buildup for Kursk, including the Porsche built and manufactured “Konig Tiger”, (King Tiger) tank and the fact that its armor frontally was so thick that it did not mount interior machine-guns to use against infantry. A high proportion of those beasts was destroyed by Russian sappers who tossed satchel charges underneath them.
The Soviets also employed what the Germans called “Schwerpuncts” or hard-points, deeply dug in with 76MM antitank cannons, within the cauldron, massed heavy artillery on its fringes and swarms of Shtormovik tank buster, armored fighter-bombers, as well as American supplied P-39’s which the U$A sent to Russia in huge numbers as they did not make effective front-line fighters due to slow rates of climb and relatively low ceilings. But with, if recall is correct, they mounted a 37MM cannon in the plane’s sharp nose which was most effective against the majority of German vehicles, both tracked and on wheels.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 2:54 utc | 262

From telegram: https://t.me/Eurekapress/5687
“………. Do you know who led Ukraine’s suicidal “counter-offensive”?
Army General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (right) and Maj. Gen. John K. Love, US Representative to the NATO Military Committee.
It’s reported by the New York Times, not the Red Army…
“American journalists revealed the names of those responsible for preparing and helping the Ukrainian armed forces to create a counteroffensive plan in Ukraine.”
“Over several months, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and Assistant to the President for National Security Jake Sullivan helped develop kyiv’s ‘counteroffensive’ strategy against Allied forces.”
If true^, then I hold the view the Russians were aware of the impending action. I reckon Russian intel has a good window overviewing at that level…..

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 3:04 utc | 263

fyi
fighting with one hand and three fingers tied behind their backs.
https://t.me/Zornkrieger/13752
People don’t get that Ru has 10 Combined Arms Armies (about 50K each), of which only 3 were assigned to Ua till now, also have 5 Army Corps (about 35K each) of which none assigned to Ua, also 3 Tank Armies (500-800 tanks and about 25K troops each), of which only one division of one Tank Army assigned to Ua, also Ru has VDV Corps (~50K) of which 1 or two divisions assigned to Ua, also Ru Navy has Naval Infantry (Marine Corps, ~40K) of which only 1 division assigned to Ua..

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 16 2022 3:06 utc | 264

WJ@263
Ukraine HAD millions of people. Not any more. Many of the Russian speakers are behind Russian lines now or have relocated on a temporary basis to Russia itself. At the same time, millions of Ukies have fled west into Poland and various other EU
countries. Many of the Polaks resent them and the huge demonstration in Prague means that a significant proportion of the Czech people are not on line with their government.
Secondly, a very high percentage of Ukraine’s field-officers and NCO’s have “bit the dust”. Thus the frontal leadership has been decimated. Likewise the highly motivated and thoroughly propagandized veteran soldiers have gone full-time horizontal and several times that many ended up on hospital beds.
Recruits from amongst NATOstani recently “retired” volunteers will soon dry up as the butcher-bill among those gang-ho’s is steadily mounting. When those mercenaries start getting taken prisoners, many of those enthusiasts will begin to “sing”, as did numerous Azovites from Mariupol who were mercilessly cut down in a rocket attack in their Donetsk prison. No way can they keep a lid on that mess.
The whole Kharkiv-Izyum was merely a fart in church in order to keep those Ramstein “donors” making with the baksheesh to Zelensky and his cronies.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 16 2022 3:06 utc | 265

“Maria with some clear and unambiguous words:
“Supply long range weapons and US becomes a direct belligerent, and we reserve the right to react….”.”
Feeling froggy? Jump!

Posted by: Muthaucker | Sep 16 2022 3:09 utc | 266

@unimperator | Sep 15 2022 20:49 utc | 197
>>IAEA […] were saved from the role of human shields.
–and I’m sure that Mr. Grossi was real grateful for that as long as he was in Ernegodar; he may even have offered some kind words to the Russkies. But that was then. Back in the office, the reality is that the US is still the superpower. The West runs pretty much all the international organizations, and will most likely continue to do so as long as they just can print funny money, while others have to earn theirs.
Ironically, the best thing Russia got out of the IAEA mission may have been killing dozens, maybe hundreds of Ukraine’s best-trained special forces. That’s assuming that things went down broadly as claimed by Moscow; they haven’t published much evidence to back up their story. Beyond that… maybe Russia played for time, as seems to be Putin’s usual MO no matter the dossier. As long as Russia doesn’t have/commit the strength to just take Nikopol and silence the guns there (they haven’t managed so far even in frikkin’ Avdeevka, right in view of Donetsk), what else can they do; at least the IAEA circus was cheap for them.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Sep 16 2022 3:11 utc | 267

Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 1:06 utc | 245 “Paveway – that link you posted earlier – few seem to understand the Russian way of making war. All who have marched on Moscow in the past have paid the price.”
I don’t disagree about lack of understanding about “the Russian way of making war” Peter. I posted the link more to suggest that the SMO – in many ways – is NOT and can’t possibly be the Russian way of making war – because the SMO is not being conducted solely by the Russian Army.
Some of the forces are Russian Army and Russian generals ostensibly command and control the overall operation. But it does this as best it can with a confederation of disparate forces that, to a large degree, act approximately towards the same goals but not in a unified, well-coordinated way nor with anywhere near the same motivations and certainly not with the same equipment and training. That’s not the fault of Russian commanders or Russian military doctrine, it’s simply the reality of what they have to work with now in the SMO.
I can appreciate William Schryver’s maskirovka analysis, but he seems to direct his logic mostly at NATO/Ukrainians crowing about some kind of decisive, well-planned military victory. In fact, they just acted to advance into territory Russia was clearly no longer willing to defend at any cost – because Russia needed the troops elsewhere.
I don’t think Russia would have retreated at all if they had all the regular Russian troops/equipment they needed elsewhere -and- could keep a sufficient, well-equipped and rested regular Russian force in place to hold the Izium front. Without both of those conditions, I think it’s a bit of a stretch to conjure a clever maskirovka op to explain Russian actions.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 3:14 utc | 268

This pic: https://t.me/azmilitary11/20566
The rulers of the “rest of the world”. Sitting around on a sofa, chatting.
And. A big globe glimpsed on the sidelines….

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 3:22 utc | 269

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 3:14 utc | 270
Your last couple sentences are clearly right and for any disinterested observer make the most sense of what happened. Schryver’s theory is predicated on Russia having set a trap they are about to spring. We’re still waiting for that spring—that thunderbolt from the sky to fall—and I imagine we’ll keep waiting because it is nonexistent.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 3:25 utc | 270

@davidgmillsatty | Sep 15 2022 23:48 utc | 225
>>Why doesn’t the US understand that Europe is its greatest enemy?
From personal experience: because Europeans are losing their separate, distinct identity–that’s cultural imperialism for you. The Brits are celebrating Black History Month for chrissakes; the Dutch are celebrating Christmas in the Anglo-Saxon way, instead of doing Sinterklaas properly because the latter’s supposed to be raciss. The Americans were their WWII liberators, while the Russkie commies just wanted to take away their freedoms. Europeans who’ve had their educations and even entire careers in the USA have that prestige attached to them, and are thereby qualified for high office; no questions asked about where their loyalties lie now.
They’re all subjects of the Empire now, and that’s it. So if the Empire is at war with Putin then hell yeah, they want their Empire to win, no matter the cost to themselves. Or at least, that’s how they vaguely feel about it before cold and hunger become more concrete. A properly run colonialism should always mind-fuck the vassals in this manner.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Sep 16 2022 3:32 utc | 271

PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 3:14 utc | 270
Watch and wait. The war is much larger than Ukraine. I don’t now how to adequately convey it, but although I disagree with your take at times I have a great deal of respect for you.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 3:38 utc | 272

I see that the UK’s Guardian is posting a report of a mass grave (400+ bodies) in Izium. Any comments? Perhaps the Russians or Donbassians are really war criminals after all. Who knows what is happening here amid the fog of propaganda.

Posted by: Peripatus | Sep 16 2022 3:43 utc | 273

WJ | Sep 16 2022 3:25 utc | 272
“……Waiting to see the Russians spring a trap”…… = snap!
What you expect is to see the U$ style colourful, cartoonish, “snap, bam, pow, wow,” of war
You think the Russian response to the Kharkov Ukrainian expedition should look like “shock and awe” made for CNN war television.
It doesn’t.
Over at telegram, the Russians are seen to be killing Ukrainians in consistently high numbers.. it’s not something the western media will report …. (So it’s not happening).
More than 6 months in, and the Russians are still not fighting the way they “should”, or in a Hollywood blockbuster style …. Which is how western “audiences” have been trained to consume their war porn.
Take a look at this pic. Ignore the caption.
Look at who’s in the room. Think about what it shows. And why you’re very unlikely to see this in western media.
https://t.me/azmilitary11/20566
Once all these countries trade outside the U$D…

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 3:44 utc | 274

WJ | Sep 16 2022 3:25 utc | 272
Your mind is trapped within the tiny sphere of Ukraine. The war is on a geopolitical scale.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 3:45 utc | 275

@ WJ | Sep 16 2022 2:43 utc | 263
you see wj… you fill the pages with your speculation and negative spin, but that is all it is… @ paveway on the other hand brings relevant substance to the conversation…. this difference is why i pay more attention to paveway then you… cheers and take a break from posting if all it is is empty speculation..

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 3:50 utc | 276

@ Peripatus | Sep 16 2022 3:43 utc | 275
yeah, who knows?? but do believe the shit that the guardian offers, lol… if you are short on fertilizer in the uk, by all means use this as a substitute…

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 3:53 utc | 277

psychohistorian | Sep 16 2022 1:34 utc | 250 – The only ray of hope on the horizon is enough energy austerity/financial pain for the little people to put the fear of God back in the politicians. The trouble with relying on that pain to produce enough social unrest is that sometimes it backfires, producing little discernable political change or benefit while simply producing more pain for the most vulnerable. I’m kind of tired of seeing so much pain. I may have to invoke my latent superpowers and kick some psychopathic evildoer’s ass.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 3:54 utc | 278

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 3:44 utc | 276
I have no illusions of the Russians doing any such thing. Schryver’s piece anticipates some “thunderbolt.” I do not see any evidence of lightning.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 3:45 utc | 277
You are right that the geopolitical implications of this war are global. However the actual fighting and killing is going on in Ukraine. Russia’s strategy in Ukraine is informed by the larger geopolitical considerations, to be sure. But it is at least possible that those same considerations have led to a military operation that is somewhat hamstrung. One does not have to be a doomer or a NATO apologist to point this out.
BOTH SIDES in this war have been prophesying the imminent collapse of the enemy since day one. Both sides keep chugging along. No obvious collapse in sight, yet, on either. Maybe tomorrow, or next week, the Ukraine defenses in Donbass collapse and Russia then steamrolls into Odessa, takes all the south in a month, and successfully sequesters the new rump state. That would be fantastic. I hope it does happen. But at the moment I believe that any notion of an imminent or short term or even mid term collapse of the Ukrainian defenses is dubious, if only because people have been claiming this for six months now.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:04 utc | 279

Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 3:38 utc | 274 – Waiting is overrated, but I’m still hoping that “Russia will be the savior of the world” prophecy thing comes true. That will take a load off my shoulders. I’m kind of getting stressed out at my inability to fix things on this planet (without invoking my superpowers).
james | Sep 16 2022 3:50 utc | 278 – Thanks, but I assure you that nearly everything I post is also speculation. I simply back it up with other’s speculation, creating a kind of all-encompassing speculative multi-verse echo chamber, which ultimately protects the soft spot on my skull from intrusive thoughts and other blunt objects.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:06 utc | 280

@ PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 3:54 utc | 280
i am reading a book right now by a guy named kees van der pijl called ‘states of emergency’ 2022..let me quote from page 97..
“2008 was not just a regular stock market crash or recession. Wolfgang Streeck sees it as the moment when the pyramid of financial remedies by which successive attempts had been made to maintain social peace in the West after the turbulent 1960’s and 1970’s, finally collapsed and that going forward, democracy would be on hold and government would have to rely on other means. The question, then, was what this would mean for the capital fraction that heretofore had been at the forefront of the power bloc since the 1990’s and had even succeeded in directing an apparent recovery – until 2020.”
i guess that doesn’t have a lot to do with your comment,lol – but i see it as relevant… yes to more pain.. i see that as inevitable… more people living on the street and etc. etc. and say goodbye to democracy, if anyone thought that was happening.. better invoke your latent superpowers, or is that the use of psychotropics?

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 4:06 utc | 281

@ PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:06 utc | 282
it’s all speculation at this point, but as i see it, some of it is more relevant and less navel gazing then some of the other stuff… but here i am basically navel gazing, so i can be ignored easily – which is exactly what i need to do with others who persist in this!

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 4:08 utc | 282

WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:04 utc | 281
On the question of both sides projections, we must look at the public utterances of both Russian and US leadership. Find somewhere a transcript where Russian leadership prophesied immanent collapse of US proxies. Everything that has come out of Moscow is more along the lines of long war.
Best not to confuse bloggers with leaders.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:12 utc | 283

james | Sep 16 2022 4:06 utc | 283 – “better invoke your latent superpowers, or is that the use of psychotropics?”
No, but I’m willing to give those a try if they will help. I made a note somewhere about chatting it up with the machine elves someday. They seem like helpful and friendly little fellows.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:18 utc | 284

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 3:50 utc | 278
The points I noted in my comment are not my speculations. They are all derived from independent war analysts and various telegram channels I have found to be more or less reliable.
I am sorry you think they are “negative spin.” I view them as realistic concerns necessary to keep in mind especially if you move as I do in virtual circles that are dominated by pro-Russian sentiment. Just because I view the Russian cause in this war as just, does not mean that there is a reason for everything the Russians do, that the Russians don’t fuck up, that they are superhuman strategists whose every apparent setback is but a ploy to achieve a greater victory, etc. Russians are fallible actors operating in a huge state bureaucracy that exhibits an odd combination of Soviet and neoliberal tendencies, simultaneously. This has a bearing on the SMO.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:22 utc | 285

PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:06 utc | 282 “”Russia will be the savior of the world” prophecy thing comes true.”
I think Russia may well be that, but Russia has never designated itself policeman of the world.
There will be a lot of blood and tears before this is over.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:26 utc | 286

@ WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:22 utc | 287
its all good wj… i am just shouting off at the mouth… we all speculate.. it all remains speculation – whether ours, or others and we are better off watching as opposed to speculating.. as for either side fucking up – of course… absolutely…

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 4:27 utc | 287

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:12 utc | 285
This is a fair point. The Russian government has not engaged in the prophetic hyperboles of the enemy’s imminent collapse as have the US, Ukraine, and pretty much every blogger, tweeter, telegrammer on either side of the conflict. This is a good sign. Thank you.

Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:29 utc | 288

BOTH SIDES in this war have been prophesying the imminent collapse of the enemy since day one. Both sides keep chugging along. No obvious collapse in sight, yet, on either. Maybe tomorrow, or next week, the Ukraine defenses in Donbass collapse and Russia then steamrolls into Odessa, takes all the south in a month, and successfully sequesters the new rump state. That would be fantastic. I hope it does happen. But at the moment I believe that any notion of an imminent or short term or even mid term collapse of the Ukrainian defenses is dubious, if only because people have been claiming this for six months now.
Posted by: WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:04 utc | 281
Not really. Just on social media.
In the physical world the consistent message from Ukraiine is “we will win but need a constant stream of weapons and soldiers”.
From the Russian side: “We will continue until we have met the stated objectives of the SMO
Neither have said anything about speed. That’s all beeen by the speculators.

Posted by: K | Sep 16 2022 4:30 utc | 289

WJ | Sep 16 2022 3:25 utc | 272 ” Schryver’s theory is predicated on Russia having set a trap they are about to spring”
Schryver’s theory is about deception. Nothing more.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:33 utc | 290

William Gruff #90. Seems the window was 1/3 open,until you came along to open it wide so all the shit could fly in.
To whomever will clarify this: I have understood Russia’a smo prohibits conscripts from fighting outside its borders, but does the smo also limit it to 200,000 total conscripts? Is that why, (according to Dima. the Military Summary channel Wed. Sept. 14) the private military company Wagner is offering some Russian military prisoners a contract to get out of jail and join the Wagner Group. Would this allow for Russia to expand its infantry and still remain within the rules of the smo? Could this be A fall-back plan should Russia need “storm troopers” (according to Dima) in a couple of months without changing the smo category (I believe Russian must remail continually vigilant of any by NATOUSUK trap to unleash the gods of total war). Lavieja

Posted by: lavieja | Sep 16 2022 4:42 utc | 291

didnt take long to find mass graves . marked as soldiers with a christian burial with crosses. but of course the obligatory war crimes and russia did it . no need to put a link, all western media will be spamming it hard

Posted by: hankster | Sep 16 2022 4:44 utc | 292

WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:29 utc | 290
my reply to your 172 was before I had seen your 290. Smoke and mirrors, Russian dolls. Its a weird world.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:48 utc | 293

Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:26 utc | 288 – “…but Russia has never designated itself policeman of the world.”
I agree, but that is totally unnecessary. Russia just has to keep being Russia and acting in its own best interests.
When the west’s Clown World starts disintegrating and the people here are freaking out about their insanely tyrannical governments force-feeding them their psychopathic ideology ‘cure’, they’ll look outside the hellish maelstrom and see Russia… just standing there shaking her head.
And people will (hopefully) remember that the Clown World was always an illusion used to control them and all they have to do is step outside the whirlpool. That’s how Russia saves the world.
Which is all good. My solution involves industrial woodchippers. I’m hoping to avoid that if possible.

Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:50 utc | 294

PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:50 utc | 296
Wood chippers sound somewhat messy.As an Aussie with a foriegn monarch as head of state, I’m hoping for some crumbs off the Russian table. I don’t expect any more than that if I were to get that.
Cheers Paveway.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 16 2022 4:59 utc | 295

@ K | Sep 16 2022 4:30 utc | 291
thanks for saying all that.. it is how i see it too.. the western msm is talking the usa-nato side 24-7… that is not the same as russia talking..

Posted by: james | Sep 16 2022 5:00 utc | 296

F-R-I-E-N-D-S
https://t.me/EurasianChoice/19797
——-
NS2. Was about to begin flowing just 1 year ago.:
Now: “”……Germany is waiting for a wave of bankruptcies due to anti-Russian sanctions – the head of the Bundestag Committee on energy Klaus Ernst.
“(German Chancellor Olaf) Scholz himself said: “Sanctions should not affect Europe more than the Russian leadership.”
During this time, we (in the EU) have introduced seven sanctions packages, and Gazprom has received record profits.
At the same time, we are facing a wave of bankruptcies,” he wrote.
According to the politician, the dialogue with Moscow should be built with an open mind.””
https://t.me/EurasianChoice/19785
Meanwhile. In Mongolia:
Power of Siberia pipeline will take over.
“…… Deputy Prime Minister Novak – on the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China: The project is being discussed for a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters.
Will it replace the Nord Stream pipelines? Actually, yes!”
https://t.me/EurasianChoice/19799

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 16 2022 5:08 utc | 297

Which is all good. My solution involves industrial woodchippers. I’m hoping to avoid that if possible.
Posted by: PavewayIV | Sep 16 2022 4:50 utc | 296
Your posts are very humourous today thanks 🙂
I liked this one:
“I simply back it up with other’s speculation, creating a kind of all-encompassing speculative multi-verse echo chamber, which ultimately protects the soft spot on my skull from intrusive thoughts and other blunt objects”.
LOL don’t we all

Posted by: K | Sep 16 2022 5:20 utc | 298

Mention of Bob Dylan causes me to ask if His Bobness has said anything about the Ukraine in the last year. As his genes are from the Pale, I’m sure he has some interest (and capital!).
My appreciation for Dylan has grown in the last decade or so as he is still doing good stuff. Youtube is great for dipping into the Dylan universe and there is some amazing live performances there.
I like how he is opening his concerts these days (or was last time I checked a few months ago) with a song I’ve reallyliked from when I first heard it decades ago – “watch the river flow” albeit a semitone or so lower and with Bob’s piano playing not quite as impressive as the original done by Leon Russell.
There are killer live versions of “Duquesne Whistle” eg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvYygvyZEsI (you’ll enjoy the drumming james) which shows he still putting a great show.

Posted by: tucenz | Sep 16 2022 5:24 utc | 299

WJ | Sep 16 2022 4:04 utc | 281
What’s the hurry – when you are told that the wider scope of the war is paramount, you may understand that it is there that the essential conflict is taking place and there that it will be won or lost
Meanwhile both sides take care to refrain from any local (Ukraine) action which may unduly threaten to create such an imbalance that it interferes or considerably upsets the conduct of the larger conflict
To understand the parameters of the world wide struggle is not as easy as checking the village to village maps and chairborne advice and predictions spring to mind less vividly
Most all westies have a short attention span and a desire for rapid conclusion so’s to be able to pass on the next newscycle titbit

Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 16 2022 5:33 utc | 300