Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 10, 2022
Ukraine – Russian Military Explains Its Withdrawal From The Izium Region

Since September 4, when the Ukrainian operation north of Izium started, the Russia Defense Ministry had said nothing about the issue.

Today it finally published a statement (machine translation):

Statement by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense

In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.

To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.

In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.

Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.

(Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

Has that been the plan all along?

In retrospect that seems likely. The Russian military must have know that the Ukrainian attack was coming. There was only light resistance against the Ukrainian attack. Major Russian units had already been moved out of the area. The region did not have any public priority in Russian planing. A larger fight would have cost many Russian soldier and civilian lives.

So there were no cunning plans to surround the Ukrainian forces and no real disaster or success on either side.

Well, that is at least what the Russian military says. It also fits to the known facts.

There may be another reason why the Russian military did not want to fight for Izium. In May 1942, during the Second Battle of Kharkov, a Soviet counterattack on Nazi held Kharkov was defeated by two preplanned Nazi attacks south and north of Izium.


bigger

The names on the map will look familiar to those who have followed the current battle over the past days.

The Soviet counterattack ended in a bloody defeat:

On 17 May, the German 3rd Panzer Corps and XXXXIV Army Corps under the command of Fedor von Bock, supported by aircraft, arrived, enabling the Germans to launch Operation Fridericus, pushing back the Soviet Barvenkovo bridgehead to the south. On 18 May, [Marshal Semyon] Timoshenko requested permission to fall back, but Stalin rejected the request. On 19 May, Paulus launched a general offensive to the north as Bock's troops advanced in the south, thus attempting to surround the Soviets in the Izium salient. Realizing the risk of having entire armies surrounded, Stalin authorized the withdraw, but by that time the Soviet forces were already started to be closed in. On 20 May, the nearly surrounded Soviet forces mounted counteroffensives, but none of the attempts were successful in breaking through the German lines. The Soviets achieved some small victories on 21 and 22 May, but by 24 May, they were surrounded near Kharkov.

The Second Battle of Kharkov resulted in an extremely costly loss to the Soviets, which saw 207,000 men killed, wounded, or captured; some estimates put the number as high as 240,000. Over 1,000 Soviet tanks were destroyed during this battle, as well as the loss of 57,000 horses. German losses were much smaller than the Soviets, with over 20,000 killed, wounded, or captured. Soviet General Georgy Zhukov later blamed this major defeat on Stalin, who underestimated German strength in the region and failed to prepare an adequate reserve force to counter the arrival of the German reinforcement that turned the tide.

So it's on towards Donbas.

Comments

Russia will have to count with resistance even from ethnic Russians in areas of the Donbass they take over in the future. The inhabitants will be facing the prospect of Russia suddenly abandoning them faster than anyone can react, leaving the Ukrainians to walk in and massacre everyone they consider sympathetic to the Russians (with the West cheering it on). The Russian MoD then sweeping in to explain that this was a 4D chess maneuver does not help.

Posted by: Unnamed | Sep 10 2022 21:27 utc | 201

Ranelagh @ 141, james:
I saw that video that “Don Bacon” @ 60 refers to.
The video is 80 seconds long. It is impossible to know what the recruiter and soldiers were really arguing about without the full context. We don’t know how the argument began and what sparked it off. For all we know too, the English-language subtitles may be a deliberate mistranslation.
In a country whose President and his most senior advisors are from the film-making and PR industries, and probably getting advice from UK film-makers embedded with UK military advisors (some of whom who must have also advised the White Helmets in Syria years ago), it would not be difficult to pick up a video shot on someone’s cellphone, edit out all but a few minutes, then add whatever fictional narrative you want and pass it off to starry-eyed Western stenographers eager for the latest scoops.
The argument and people in the video may be real enough but everything else around it may be staged.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 202

How it’s playing in mainstream UK press:
“”We have seen reports for weeks of Russians refusing to fight, and complaining they are understaffed and underequipped.
“It seems that many areas occupied by Russians are suffering really, really low morale.”
On Saturday, Ukraine’s military confirmed it had seized Kupiansk, a vital eastern supply hub for Russian forces.
In a tweet, Ukrainian Armed Forces said Kupyansk “was and will always be Ukrainian”.
Russia’s defence ministry has scrambled to justify the retreat, claiming that the collapse of the frontline would allow Russia “to regroup”.
The ministry also confirmed the withdrawal of troops from a third key town, Balaklyia.”
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1667600/Vladimir-Putin-Russian-Ukraine-war-invasion-military-Kharkiv-Izyum-Zelensky-latest-vn
Ukraine should get her billions more now…

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 203

Ukraine should get her billions more now…
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 235
Ukraine would have got those billions regardless.
The reasoning might have been different, but that outcome would’ve remained the same.

Posted by: Martina | Sep 10 2022 21:34 utc | 204

Marjorie | Sep 10 2022 20:59 utc | 220
Russia wants to control the entire BS coast before it initiates an escalation. Experience is a comb which nature gives us when we are bald, but due to the sensitive nature of the operation sometimes waxing is preferable to shaving.

Posted by: P. Ness | Sep 10 2022 21:35 utc | 205

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 235
UK liberals should keep their bs opinions to themselves and stay on their over populated waste dump island and not interfere with other affairs.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 10 2022 21:37 utc | 206

So finished my nap, got a coffee, and what do my blue eyes see, Izyum gone!! Not bad. Facepalm, blunder, miscalculation. Maybe. Now it gets interesting. But if they couldn’t hold the line, then maybe it is better to retreat and regroup. Not impossible that Ukraine offensive has still higher losses than Russian army retreating.
Of course, can forget now about Slavyansk and Kramatorsk for the next half year.. unless Russians pounce back immediately. But then, winter was planned in and since Lisichansk no progress had been done there anyway.. And if Russia decides to save their army for the time being, what do I know. Russia can fight another day.. while Ukraine can’t afford to loose this offensive. So it wasn’t the big trap, but who knows, the situation is still more risky for Ukraine.
So congrats to the.. aeh, everyone who predicted this one correctly and informed us a few hours early.

Posted by: C | Sep 10 2022 21:41 utc | 207

@ Jen | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 234
It is impossible to know what the recruiter and soldiers were really arguing about
Au contraire, it is easy to know that the militia guy was stressed because his units were overworked and underpaid by RF, and that they were mad as hell and weren’t going to take it any more, especially because they were from a different country than Donetsk (Luhansk).

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 10 2022 21:42 utc | 208

@ Exile | Sep 10 2022 21:15 utc | 225
its a good comment.. i agree with that…
@ Jen | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 234
thanks jen… that was what i was getting at with anything from the uk msm… it is just garbage and not to be trusted in any way whatsoever… you would think anyone who gave it a moment of thought could see what you’ve articulated in your post, but apparently not…
@ unimperator | Sep 10 2022 21:37 utc | 238
lol… would be nice..

Posted by: james | Sep 10 2022 21:43 utc | 209

Time for economic war?

@John Archer | Sep 10 2022 21:12 utc | 224
Here is what i think.
Everyone wants this war to stop, and nobody wants to totally loose face. Ukraine with their “mighty” army takes the Kharkiv region, the Russians take the rest of Donbas. A neutral party will then call both sides to the negotiation table. Now the polticians can start peace negotiations without getting lynched by the mob. In the negotiations, the Russians will agree to evacuate from the bridgehead near Nikolayev. Ukraine will declare neutrality and agree to not attack the Russian occupied territories, and freezing the conflict.

I agree, that there may be some political compromise behind the latest moves. Or at least a Russian attempt to facilitate some sort of compromise. The hot war may now wind down and the economic and information wars take center stage. Maybe.
As I tweeted in June:

Petri Krohn @PetriKrohn on Twitter, June 26, 2022
My guess:
– War will last until next summer.
– #Russia will pause offensive operations in September and switch to economic war.
– #Europe & #Ukraine will freeze.
Only chance for #EU to survive #winter is if #Kiev surrenders by end of August.

Here is the latest from the economic front:

Goldman Sees $2 Trillion Surge in Europe Energy Bills by 2023Bloomberg, September 6, 2022
Energy bills for European households will surge by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion) at their peak early next year, underscoring the need for government intervention, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. utilities analysts.
At their height, energy bills will represent about 15% of Europe’s gross domestic product, the analysts, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, wrote in a note dated Sunday.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 10 2022 21:45 utc | 210

Ukraine should get her billions more now…
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 235
You thought it would not? Those billions are peanuts for EU that wastes hundred billions of Euros on propping energy consumers from the effects of high prices and factory closure (Euros are smaller than before, but no Turkish style inflation yet) and for USA that racked similar hundreds of billions in LNG arbitrage. Budgeting on both sides of Atlantic is on credit, and money managers have limited options.
That said, good strategy requires variety, and the last several months severely lacked that. Worrisome analogy with “strange war” between September 1939 and the spring of 1940 on the Western front.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 10 2022 21:46 utc | 211

@Posted by: The Rev. David R. Gr | Sep 10 2022 18:33 utc | 137

Sounds to me like an excellent opportunity to throw a heavy flying fist from Kherson region to Kryvyi Rih or Dnipropetrovsk, right bank of the . Or through Kadyrov’s breakthrough at Donetsk to Pavlohrad. An Inchon.

I think that the Russian official statement is a bit rosier than reality, they staged a well-managed tactical retreat under fire to a much more defensible line. I have been waiting for months for Russia to do something as positive as you propose, in vain. It would be excellent to trade Kharkiv for Dnipro and it would fill me full of respect but Putin just seems congenitally very careful (as in Syria where the US continues to build up its illegally occupying forces). Time is on Russia’s side, and the tactical withdrawal was a correct move, but this is like watching paint dry with respect to the Russian gains.
@Posted by: Unnamed | Sep 10 2022 21:27 utc | 233

Russia will have to count with resistance even from ethnic Russians in areas of the Donbass they take over in the future. The inhabitants will be facing the prospect of Russia suddenly abandoning them faster than anyone can react, leaving the Ukrainians to walk in and massacre everyone they consider sympathetic to the Russians (with the West cheering it on). The Russian MoD then sweeping in to explain that this was a 4D chess maneuver does not help.

Have to agree on this one, a big propaganda loss with respect to the local population. I am sure we will be getting lots of horrific accounts of the Nazi retributions – just like the Nazis in WW2.
I see a continuous increase in comments from names I have never before seen on this blog, including one glorifying in the possible death of Lira which is utterly disgusting (that account should be deleted immediately). There seems to be a concerted campaign to make this blog inoperable through a troll swarming attack.
Overall, time is on Russia’s side and it will take a significant amount of time to grind down the Ukrainian army given their sheer numbers. During the winter we will have the collapse of the Ukrainian state together with depression in Europe and deep recession in North America. In addition, the Ukies seem to be foolishly throwing men at the Russians all along the front, greatly aiding in the liquidation of tens of thousands of their troops.
The best outcome for me is that the Russians roll with these punches (Ali “rope a dope”?) and then when the Ukies are out of puff do a significant strike as the Rev. above proposes. Otherwise its a long painful grind all the way to 2024 at best as the NATO countries keep the Ukies head just above water. By winter 2023-2024 if we are still at this Europe will be finished.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 10 2022 21:46 utc | 212

First and foremost, nobody commenting here knows what actually happening in Ukraine–NOBODY–including me. Therefore, every comment is an unsubstantiated opinion, except for this observation.
Russia’s been conducting a war-of-sorts in Syria for 7 years–SEVEN–and Russia made a few errors while learning a great deal and providing its military with priceless battle experience. I don’t recall any similar level of hysteria during Syria when tactical errors were made. Side note–NATO failed 100% in Syria. The current error IMO happening in Syria is failure to directly attack and oust Outlaw US Empire forces lodged there. Why that hasn’t happened is unknown to all as Russia hasn’t told us why.
The Saker’s recent fact sheet about the disposition of the SMO accepted the fact that weak points would be attacked by Ukie forces if they could discern where those points are. That has occurred. How Russia would react in such an instance was also delved into, and we see from the few genuine reports that he was generally correct. Again, the only people aware of what’s actually occurring are those on the FEBA as well as those in higher command they communicate with. No one commenting here knows anything.
Just as during past wars, those back on the Home Front will need to wait to get genuine news from the Front. That’s the primary reason why I’ve refrained from commenting because I have no genuine information to share. Of the 1,000+ comments over the last two threads and this one, very little genuine info’s been presented–all the rest is FOG and FUD.
I have confidence in Russia’s command–military and political. Nothing has occurred to shake that confidence. I have great confidence in Russia’s war material–from weaponry to soldiers and ability–and certainly nothing has occurred to change my assessment.
So, do throw illogic and further Fog and hot air at my reasoning, but no one will be capable of defeating it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 10 2022 21:48 utc | 213

It seems clear that Russia is continuing to demilitarize the Ukrainian army. The Kharkov ‘offensive’ has already resulted in several thousand deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, and will probably result in a few thousand more deaths, with 5 to 10 thousand wounded. The Ukrainian army has little armor, no air support, little artillery, few supplies, little ammunition, and is facing destruction.
But I think a more significant event will happen when winter comes. Russia can easily turn out the lights and gas in western Ukraine and areas that wouldn’t vote to be part of Russia. What will these people do, huddled in the cold and the dark? Obviously, they’ll take trains (which Russia won’t disable) to Poland and the EU, causing a big problem for the EU – tens of millions of refugees.
Forcing the western Ukrainians to emigrate to Poland in the cold and dark will effectively ‘denazify’ Ukraine. Once they’re gone from Ukraine, Russia can ‘close the door’ to their return with border guards.
I think this is one reason Russia is looking to require visas for Ukrainians to travel to Russia – forcing the western Ukrainians to go to Poland, and the Russian-leaning people to go to Russia or Novorossiya.

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Sep 10 2022 21:54 utc | 214

@Roger | Sep 10 2022 21:46 utc | 244

By winter 2023-2024 if we are still at this Europe will be finished.

Financial markets are hoping for a quick Russian victory. My banker friend noted in April, that any good news for Ukraine would cause a downturn in the stock market.
Expect share prices to fall on Monday. The war won’t be over this year.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 10 2022 21:58 utc | 215

@Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 10 2022 21:48 utc | 245
First and foremost, nobody commenting here knows what actually happening in Ukraine–NOBODY–including me. Therefore, every comment is an unsubstantiated opinion, except for this observation.
Yet, your posts for months have had complete confidence that Russia was indisputably winning.
Many reports have claimed that Russia has abandoned Izyum and Kupyansk. And a new thing that’s unsubstantiated as of now:
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1568622778839928832
Lysychansk is within Luhansk Oblast. An abandonment of a Luhansk city would be big news if substantiated.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 21:59 utc | 216

@P. Ness | Sep 10 2022 21:35 utc | 237
>Russia wants to control the entire BS coast before it initiates an
>escalation.
Well, don’t these arguments always go in the direction of “slower is better, now is not the time”? I don’t claim expertise, but say an amphibious op in the Odessa oblast should have been done on Day 1 (that is, if you want to do it), before the beaches were mined and Kiev deployed Western long-range weapons. How on earth is Russia going to get that coast without escalation? Zelensky will just give it to Putin for his birthday, abandoning NATO’s position in the Black Sea?

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Sep 10 2022 22:01 utc | 217

Posted by: toivos | Sep 10 2022 17:45 utc | 96
Re: apologies to Scott Ritter
Indeed. Ritter not only warned for weapons but also for increased, massive training, maintenance, supplies, intelligence all located in the untouchable back lands of NATO. Which is basically the meaning of “strategic depth”. It’s clear that massive transports of trained soldiers and gear occur daily. Only part of this seems intercepted. Any serious war would have first blocked the borders and all supply routes. Although one could see a few reasons this was not done: A. flight routes of citizens, creating a large influx into Europe (causing longer term issues, load and stress). And B. the priority of SMO not being conquest but aimed at draining Ukraine and suppliers while minimizing costs. Preferable dragging this issue through to next year while keeping a bear squeeze around Ukraine (the wolf’s frozen tail falls off?).
This harsh geopolitical game is no comfort for all the people who were counting on protection, security and enrollment into the Russian Federation as citizen. They might feel betrayed. The sad part is that at this stage, it doesn’t matter. The SMO was never about any short-term needs of citizens. Neither was the 2014 coup BTW. War is a harsh master that way. It doesn’t serve any human at the heart.

Posted by: John Dowser | Sep 10 2022 22:04 utc | 218

Paul Craig Roberts has posted a rather different assessment of the Russian retreat (I get the impression that his point of view is being widely reflected within Russia at present):
“The Kremlin’s attempt to fight a war with minimal resources and no commitment to disrupt the government and functioning of Western Ukraine and the weapons flowing in from the US and NATO now brings the humiliation of having Ukrainian troops break through Russia’s thinly defended line in the Kharkov region of Eastern Ukraine.
I would be surprised if Russia, by far the superior power, doesn’t quickly regain control over the military situation in Donbass. But the Ukrainian success, no matter how limited or temporary, has doomed Putin’s “limited operation,” which, as I have emphasized, was doomed from the beginning.
It was doomed from the beginning by the Kremlin’s ridiculous assumption that Washington would permit the operation to be limited. The widening of the war was guaranteed. The fact that the war has widened is now understood by Russian TV hosts who say the proxy war in Ukraine between the US and Russia is over and Russia now faces a real direct war with the US and its NATO puppets. For Russia to continue in Ukraine, the Kremlin must fight a real war and knock out the government in Kiev and the governmental and civilian infrastructure that permits Ukraine to conduct war without Russian interference and which permits supply avenues for ever more dangerous Western weapons to be acquired by Ukraine. It is stunning that Putin thought he could drive Ukrainian troops out of Donbass and then sign an agreement ending the conflict.
The Ukrainian success in overrunning Russian positions will widen the war further. Europe’s enthusiasm which was waning will wax again, and Washington will up the provocations to increase the pressure on Putin. Neoconservatives will push for beefing up the US/NATO forces on Russia’s borders and trouble-making in former, but now independent, Russian provinces at the risk of convincing Russia that a broad scale invasion of Russia is being prepared while Russia is trapped in Ukraine. If this happens, it will light the fuse of nuclear war.
The Kremlin dropped the ball when the Kremlin permitted Washington to overthrow the Ukraine government and install a Russian-hating puppet. The Kremlin dropped the ball again when eight years ago the Kremlin let pass the opportunity to reincorporate Donbass into Russia, thus ending the conflict before it could begin. The Kremlin dropped the ball again when it launched a limited military operation confined to Donbass when what was called for was a lightning takedown of Ukraine before the West could respond.
What accounts for these strategic blunders by the Kremlin? I don’t know for sure. My speculation is that Putin was won over by globalism and has as his goal for Russia to be an accepted member of the West’s global order. This goal has imposed all sorts of restrictions on his range of action. Putin couldn’t accept the requests of the Donbass republics to be brought back home to Russia, because it would confirm the West’s propaganda that he intended to rebuild the Soviet empire. Putin couldn’t authorize a blitzkrieg conquest of Ukraine, because it would scare Europe into Washington’s arms forever. Putin has to operate within the confines of international law that Washington and NATO ignore in his effort to prove that Russia adheres to law and resorts to force only as a last resort.
Putin’ solution was agreements, such as the Minsk Agreement on which the Kremlin wasted eight years and the mutual security agreement the Kremlin attempted to get from Washington and NATO prior to the limited operation in Ukraine. Why so much emphasis on agreements even while the Kremlin rightfully complained endlessly of Washington breaking every agreement? It suggests that the Kremlin’s overriding goal has been to have Russia have its rightful place in the Western system, which left the Kremlin reactive, having denied itself a proactive policy of targeting its enemy.
To have such an unrealistic goal requires ignoring the Wolfowitz Doctrine of US Hegemony. It requires ignoring that the massive power and budget of the US military/security complex requires Russia as America’s #1 enemy. It was Trump’s goal of normalizing relations with Russia that brought about President Trump’s downfall. In the face of such powerful evidence as Trump’s demise, how was it possible for the Kremlin to hold on to its delusions and continue to speak of “our Western partners?”
In many ways Putin is a great leader and a man of peace, but he has seriously miscalculated the real situation. His tolerance of insults and provocations has encouraged more, and the provocations are on the verge of initiating a war that will destroy the Western world.”

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 10 2022 22:05 utc | 219

As to Stalin’s tactics at Kharhov, Zhukov could have been right. The offensive was perhaps premature, but it is easier to perceive such things after the event than before. That Stalin committed errors was inevitable, but the overall fact remains that the war was won and the Red Army offensive was a masterpiece of military strategy. And Stalin, as Zhukov spelled out in detail (“Memoirs of Marshal Zhukov”) was in supreme command.

Posted by: zeke | Sep 10 2022 22:07 utc | 220

It will be so funny when b. explains us that the plan was all along to retreat from Crimea

Posted by: Christian | Sep 10 2022 22:10 utc | 221

Russia will do this, Russia will do that…. For months Russia has done precisely nothing other than allow Ukraine to reconstitute its army and weaponry while simultaneously doing nothing to plug gaps in the fronts. Furthermore The EU has ignored the ‘trump card’ of Russian energy supply cuts by simply printing money.
Zero chance of recapturing the areas lost in the last 48 hours with the numbers committed as it would take weeks/months of hard slog.

Posted by: NightTripper | Sep 10 2022 22:12 utc | 222

“For months Russia has done precisely nothing other than allow Ukraine to reconstitute its army” – Perfect, another new army about to get demilitarized, and oh btw along with these shiny game changing NATO weapons.
“EU has ignored the ‘trump card’ of Russian energy supply cuts by simply printing money” – Some EU countries running like 20% inflation, and rising fast. And that is on top of 10x higher electricity prices, and it is not even winter.
“Zero chance of recapturing the areas lost in the last 48 hours” – Keep men, lose land; land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men; land and men are both lost

Posted by: 11th Guards Sitzkrieg Brigade, Jeff | Sep 10 2022 22:19 utc | 223

the russians have always had a good grasp of “choosing your battles”. when you’re fighting 1:3 in the other side’s favor you have to get very chess masterish about moving shit around.
and whether it was a grand scheme or not, the ukies – at what seems to be a great cost – have basically set themselves up to be “cauldronized”. again. or is the concept of them being suicidal idiots still hard to grasp for some people? also, their “comsec” and “infosec” has been train wreck from the start so the bit about their plans being known ahead of time seems very plausible.

Posted by: the pair | Sep 10 2022 22:20 utc | 224

@Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 10 2022 22:05 utc | 252
Putin has been playing with a very weak hand for a long time, which made him very patient and careful – lets remember what Russia was like when he took over. We can see that in Syria and in the response to the 2014 coup. With respect to the SMO, the West forced his hand with Zelenskys talk of nuclear weapons/the planned attack on the Donbass/the biolabs.
Its hard to go from 20+ years of playing it careful because you have a weak hand to taking risks because your hand is much stronger. Perhaps now Putin will start to be a little bolder seeing what being careful has got him, although patience may still be a virtue in the long game. The West is slowly dying, with Europe accelerating the pace for the next couple of years at least. There will be setbacks, but there is a great difference between a single battle and the overall war.
The other part of this is the Rest of the World which is slowly coming around to the China-Russia-Iran alliance etc., but Putin needs to maintain a level of ethical behaviour to offset any attempts by the West to damage his reputation in the RoW. In this respect, the West is playing into his hands by making Europe irrelevant on a geoeconomics level. Being patient is good but it has to balanced with a swift, hard punch now and again to show credibility – Russia could do with delivering that swift hard punch in the next month or so – just like Ali in “The Rumble in the Jungle”.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 10 2022 22:25 utc | 225

Of course the objetive of US and NATO was and it is “de-colonize” Russia, well, in fact colonize it, divide it in small western managed statelets and take back “our” gas, oil and in general resources temporarily administered by the Russians:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/russia-putin-colonization-ukraine-chechnya/639428/
So the western government are driving their population to suffer the winter without gas & electricity and in a huge economic recession because the West is fighting a Totalkrieg againts Russia, and it is sending to Ukraine more and more weapons and well trained agents and “mercs”, and with the increase in suffering of the western population the amount of weapons and number of “volunteers” to fight the “orcs” and “Sauron-Putin” will increase exponentially.
With the scarcity of resources the West need the Russian Lebensraum and they will fight to the end for it, they “need” to get rid of Putin and have a “friendly” guy in charge in Russia à la Yeltsin.
So Russia should forget about a SMO “on the cheap”, because the US and western countries will put all the resources to achieve the goal of the social collapse of the RF.

Posted by: Dave | Sep 10 2022 22:25 utc | 226

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/04/1109667571/ukrainian-forces-have-withdrawn-from-the-city-of-lysychansk
When Ukraine abandoned Lysychansk and claimed that they had planned to carry out a strategic withdrawal, everyone here derided that notion. Yet everyone accepts Russia’s claim that the current retreat is a strategic withdrawal.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/4/2120770/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-culminates-Ukraine-advances-on-all-fronts
Culmination: “The culminating point in military strategy is the point at which a military force is no longer able to perform its operations. On the offensive, the culminating point marks the time when the attacking force can no longer continue its advance, because of supply problems, the opposing force, or the need for rest.”
Historians will someday mark the day Russia officially culminated in its “special military operation,” and when they do, I suspect it’ll be this first week in September. While Russia is still spasming failed offensive operations around eastern Donbas, it’s been weeks since they’ve notched any progress, and two months since their last significant victory—the conquest of Lysychansk on July 3.

I think Russia has reached its limit in conquering Ukrainian territory. The territory it held right before the Kharkiv offensive is as much as it will ever hold. The rest of the War in Ukraine then is Ukraine’s efforts to take that territory back. How successfully Russia will be able to hold onto the territory it still has after all but losing Kharkiv Oblast remains to be seen.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 22:27 utc | 227

Still nothing in the way of communication from the Kremlin regarding what will be Russia’s response to this disaster?
In Stalin’s day, heads would roll over something like this. Military deficiencies were rectified prompto back then. That’s why Russia won wars under Stalin. That’s why the USSR wasn’t destroyed, broken-up, and turned into a colony by Germany, Great Britain, France, Japan or the United States.

Posted by: GW | Sep 10 2022 22:29 utc | 228

The US Police Action (similar to a SMO) into Korea lasted from 1950 – 1953. … Perhaps social media is, in this instance, a positive thing … one can see how useless and destructive war can be? Posted by: crone | Sep 10 2022 18:19 utc | 125
(1) “US Police Action (similar to a SMO)” is a euphemism for “undeclared” war. The Korean “conflict” was not the first nor most abstruse Instance of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2022. None of the “operations” thereafter—Gulf Wars— ended so quickly as predicted by yella sheet correspondents bearing flowers for the liberators. Yet MoA patrons readily, defensively accepted G7 crisis management fed through the presses, eg. time-sensitive limitation of defeat, “misinformed” PUTIN imperial ambition, and illegitimacy of anudder “(Northern War) of Aggression” / “invasion” / “intervention” / “R2P” so-called vulnerable civilians (mostly female) oppressed by an AUTHORITARIAN ray-geem but yearn to be free from “illiberal” MYSOGINISTS who, incidentally, fart in the general direction of UN conventional estimates of acceptable “collateral damage,” or zero lawful combatant mistakes. (This is a pretty amusing demonstration in classification of US armed force least likely to get a hearing by G7 evening news presenters. Too many words.)
(2) “social media” today is a euphemism for telecommunication which human beans been practicing since the stone age: strings of non sequiturs broadcast to myriad unknown and unintended receivers over time. Think on that. What “positive things” has ICT media delivered? Mind the gap: you and I are typing messages and have NO IDEA who receives the message addressed to a public exchange or how or when the message will be interpreted. Mind you: apps like Club House trunk transmission mimic mid-century party line telephony. YouTube’s proprietary network rent purportedly has “democratized” revenue sharing agreements between broadcasters and advertisers. I’m not even going to get into automated efficiency sold to commercial businesses as “customer relations management.” What “positive things” have these modern iterations of telecommunication technology introduced to a world of “social distancing” and pervasive dissociative disorder, I couldn’t say.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 10 2022 22:31 utc | 229

@13 Stephan “If this was a planned regrouping, why they have left most of their equipment behind?”
Define “they”. If b is right then the regular forces had already withdrawn and left the front line to light militia units.
And, sure, the militias manning that skirmish line then have to leave their equipment behind as they withdraw under fire.
That is to be expected but, honestly, how much equipment does that represent?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 10 2022 22:32 utc | 230

Posted by: Dave | Sep 10 2022 22:25 utc | 259
Of course the objetive of US and NATO was and it is “de-colonize” Russia, well, in fact colonize it, divide it in small western managed statelets and take back “our” gas, oil and in general resources temporarily administered by the Russians:
But didn’t Russia in fact colonize the Caucasus and Siberia? They brutalized indigenous cultures there much like the US brutalized Native American peoples during Manifest Destiny.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 22:33 utc | 231

We’re putting lipstick on a pig here. This was most certainly a colossal failure of Russian command, inexplicable . It’s not like they did not know what was coming . What of the people in these reclaimed villages and towns ? They thought they were safe , now the Ukrainians will take their revenge on anyone suspected of being a collaborator. The Donbas and Luhansk militias, the Chechens and the Wagner boys , that’s simply not enough manpower. Why the H Putin will not commit his regular troops … it’s beyond me. He’s going to have to at some point .

Posted by: Buford T Justice | Sep 10 2022 22:33 utc | 232

karlof1 | Sep 10 2022 21:48 utc | 245
The west needed this win in order to keep pulling money out of their failing economies to throw it in the black hole of Ukraine.
In my comments here over the last few months I have doubted Russia intends anymore territorial gains than Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and kherson. The utterly useless territorial gain at high cost will keep the gravy flowing into the Ukraine laundromat from the failing economies of Europe and five-eyes.
From what I can see, it is in Russia’s interest that the west maintains the sanctions and continues poring money into Ukraine.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 10 2022 22:34 utc | 233

karlof1@245…as the flow goes, facts we do know, when Russia vacates an area, the Ukrainians move in and kill or torture the locals…. Mariopol lives on. Civil Servants, locals that cooperate/d with Russia get killed….makes for a bit of occultist blood lust if you ask me, …….otherwise, clusterfuck comes to mind, somebody got a lot of splain’ to do.
Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 10 2022 22:34 utc | 234

How do you carry these dizzying thoughts in your head?
Posted by: Peter in AB | Sep 10 2022 19:55 utc | 187
“All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
Sun Tzu.

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 22:35 utc | 235

@Posted by: NightTripper | Sep 10 2022 22:12 utc | 255

Furthermore The EU has ignored the ‘trump card’ of Russian energy supply cuts by simply printing money.

You can’t print fossil fuels, and money printing with a constrained supply just leads to higher and higher inflation. As Europe becomes deindustrialized this winter, supply chains will become more and more constricted and if the printing machine keeps going they will never get control of inflation. This is the idiocy of the massive fuel subsidies which will continue to support nosebleed energy prices in a supply constrained environment, while massively increasing government debt, and massively increasing trade deficits as Western industry starts to shut down.
That is a toxic witches brew for Europe, one which will be in full display by Christmas. Even with GBP170 billion of fuel subsidies a huge number of British households will still be having problems paying their fuel bills. Then add single digit pay raises combined with 15-20% inflation and you have a winter of discontent and industrial collapse. The same will happen all across Europe, and by Christmas the Kharkov “victory” will be long forgotten.
In addition, it looks like Ukraine may have shipped a ton of grain to Europe to pay off debts which will mean Ukrainians will go hungry as well as cold this winter. Expect huge new movements of refugees to Europe, and I hope that Russia enforces visas for Ukrainians to make sure the Banderistas go West.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 10 2022 22:35 utc | 236

I appreciate these articles and most of the comments. I’m in the USA, just trying to understand what is really happening, and sympathetic to the Russian cause because I know the corruption and decadence of the US/West as caused and controlled by the Globalist Bankers and their Homosexual Agenda to destroy the Church and Family. My great-grandfather was a Russian Orthodox priest from Odessa who emigrated to the USA in the early 1900s.
I, too, am shocked and appalled by the latest news of the Russian “strategic advance to the rear”. What will happen to the civilians who trusted in the protection of the RF, and who now are unable to escape? Sounds like a great way to turn friends into enemies. I have been growing increasingly skeptical of the Russian MoD daily reports. Reminds me of the US body counts from Vietnam. By the end of that conflict, the US had killed every North Vietnamese soldier three times over.
I have read Martyanov, Saker, and others, dismiss concerns while extolling the Russian General Staff as comprised of Super-Elite Military geniuses who have foreseen every possible outcome. Well now, it appears to me that Russian/Donbass/Chechen/Wagner forces have not advanced further because they CANNOT, not because they choose not to. And somehow Ukraine still has planes flying, fuel depots, ammunition, trains running, electricity flowing, not because Russia chooses NOT to blow everything up, but because Russia CANNOT blow everything up. At least not within the limited context of the SMO.
And now Paul Craig Roberts (much aligned by the above ‘experts’) is being proven correct: Putin’s limited SMO is a huge miscalculation. PCR is not a military expert, but he understands the Western globalist financial mind. And he says what I have believed from Day 1, the West will NEVER allow Russia to win, will NEVER allow Ukraine to fall. They cannot. It would be the end of their system of dollar hegemony. The entire world will be sacrificed to prevent a Russian victory.
Do Russians believe the West will ALLOW Russia to keep all of ‘their’ oil and gas? NEVER. Energy is the lifeblood of modern life, and the West will take it by force, if they can. Russia can temporarily turn off the spigots, but they must be prepared to defend their resources with military might. Russian fan-boys can chuckle about Europe shooting itself in the foot with sanctions, but NATO troops will attack Moscow before Europe freezes in a cold winter.
Even a full retreat back to Russia will NOT end this war. The Globalists in charge of US/NATO know this is it, for all the marbles. Russia needs to act accordingly, before Nukes fly.

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 22:36 utc | 237

This has never been about “Ukraine,” “Ukrainians,” or “NATO,” it’s only about US government. Citizens of Donbass have always known this. The US is a vicious military dictatorship which enslaves its taxpayers to the war industry. Since 1945 the question has been who will stop the US as it gleefully flattens the planet. The UN is fully on board w. US global terrorism as is the entire US political class. As an American, my only hope to stop the US and save humanity has been Mr. Putin. As I understand it, he doesn’t have control over the treasury nor is he able to print money as the US is. I hope Mr. Putin understands that US elites would happily flatten the planet.

Posted by: susan mullen | Sep 10 2022 22:38 utc | 238

It does appear to this armchair strategist that a couple of Russian BTGs correctly placed could have slowed down or stopped this counter offensive. The MoD report of a regrouping of troops from Izyum sounds more like the reports from Kiev of an evacuation from Azovostal in Mariupol. It is of course possible that the Russians were planning to withdraw for Izyum as nothing had been accomplished by those troops there for months. On this day of the 10th Of September it does look like that there was a large failure of Russian intelligence. The Russians have retreated in good order apparently without any large troop losses or surrender. It is above my paygrade to know whether the Russian Airforce and missiles have taken a large toll on the Ukrainian advances. It does seem that there was very little Russian artillery in the area. So far nothing has happened that will change the outcome of the war. It does seem a tragedy for the civilians living in the area. It is also a timely victory for the Ukrainians in the PR war. Good intelligence could have made this another defeat for the Ukrainians. The Russians seem to be lacking a Guderian or Rommel or Kukov that could turn this around quickly. Time will tell if the Ukrainians can hold onto their gains.

Posted by: gepay | Sep 10 2022 22:40 utc | 239

Martynov has a new post up.
Apparently because Russian command staff use paper maps all will be well.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 10 2022 22:43 utc | 240

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 22:36 utc | 270
All it takes to send world into an economic crisis is for Russia to stop selling commodities like:
1) Oil
2) Gas
3) Coal
4) Wood
5) Nuclear
Stop selling these to everyone for a few months, and then only sell to friendlies, and watch world go into depression.

Posted by: 11th Guards Sitzkrieg Brigade, Jeff | Sep 10 2022 22:46 utc | 241

@karlof1 | Sep 10 2022 21:48 utc | 245
No one commenting here knows anything.
We’re morons? . . .Where have I heard that before.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 10 2022 22:48 utc | 242

Ma Laoshi | Sep 10 2022 22:01 utc | 250
Если честно, то ему как медведь на ухо наступил. Не обращай внимания, ты же знаешь, он отпетый дурак.

Posted by: Nugg Nugg | Sep 10 2022 22:50 utc | 243

Being patient is good but it has to balanced with a swift, hard punch now and again to show credibility
Posted by: Roger | Sep 10 2022 22:25 utc | 258
This is the language of psychopathy. TINA but violence cultivated by one among many observing violence from a distance and who, evidently, cannot comprehend conflict resolution by any other means, because®.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 10 2022 22:51 utc | 244

Moaobserver | Sep 10 2022 22:43 utc | 273
It probably goes higher than military command. With crashing economies, enthusiasm in western countries for sanctions and poring money into Ukraine was waning. Militarily Russia has lost nothing. Enthusiasm for sanctions will be renewed. That is a big win for Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 10 2022 22:55 utc | 245

Another day of massive confirmed equipment losses:
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1568717017938526216
Over the days of this offensive, Ukraine has captured 19 main battle tanks in workable condition and destroyed/damaged another 19. All according to Russia’s plan, of course.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 10 2022 22:56 utc | 246

The people of Donbas snow feel like the people in Syria. Believing in Russia but watch as they are bombed daily by Israel.
Who knows what Russia is thinking and why they do things the way they do. Meanwhile, those who believed they are protected, pay the price.

Posted by: Brad | Sep 10 2022 22:57 utc | 247

@Don Bacon | Sep 10 2022 22:48 utc | 276
We’re morons? . . .Where have I heard that before.
Yeah, you must have heard that a lot before. But don’t let that interrupt you being you.

Posted by: Lurk | Sep 10 2022 22:57 utc | 248

lolol!

Posted by: james | Sep 10 2022 22:58 utc | 249

The reality is the Slavs only understands fear. The Ukie men are pulled off the beach at gunpoint to fight for the comedian President while their women get sent to English “host families” to be raped by porcine alcoholics. They understand this won’t stop until they win or they’re all dead. So they’ll fight and fight no matter how hard the bodies pile up.

Posted by: linbiao | Sep 10 2022 22:58 utc | 250

We’re morons? . . .Where have I heard that before.
Don Bacon | Sep 10 2022 22:48 utc | 276
At the kitchen table, every morning for the last 10 years?

Posted by: Paul McGory | Sep 10 2022 22:58 utc | 251

https://euroweeklynews.com/2022/09/10/breaking-unconfirmed-report-that-denis-pushilin-resigned-as-head-of-donetsk-peoples-republic/
And now there are reports that Denis Pushilin, the Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, has resigned and fled. Why would there be a coup in DPR?

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 23:00 utc | 252

I guess US/NATO will win: the objective is to grind Russian forces and they are achieving tis fantastically!: Slowly killing Russians everyday, Russian spending tens of thousands of units of ammo per day.
That is the name of the game.
It is not about losing 20% of Ukraine’s territory, or even killing a thousand Ukes…
Ukes are expendable to NATO.
Military reinforcements are available at the rate of how much the US dollar printing press can go!
The short vision of Russia trying to be legally right, to minimize casualties and even I should dare to say: Many post Yeltsin traitors to Russia are still trying to catch sympathy from western “partners”!!!!
Russia should have steamrolled Ukraine at any cost of lives from the start!
It would have shown NATO and USA that Russian is not pussy approaching (enough patience since 1997, since 2014!)
A lot of lives would have been saved.
The escalation situation that puts the world at risk of Nuclear conflagration would have been avoided.
Russia did it to itself, and to the world, by pussy footing around the ukronazis

Posted by: J | Sep 10 2022 23:02 utc | 253

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 22:27 utc | 260
Yes, the culminating point. I have been also thinking the same thing the last month after the taking of Severodonetsk and Lyschyansk. The russian offensive run out of steam. Yes they have the physical resources to go on but after a while of conquest, I guess the reward becomes too small. Difficult to place a finger on it but it has to do with morale, comfort, expectations, the enemy getting hardened etc.
To continue, they need a reset. Just like the first time when they withdrew from large swathes of territory after it became obvious they reached the culminating point and the original intention of negotiating fell through. The West simply didnt want to give up – this surprised them a lot I think back then. So they restarted with a new definition and new goals, a clean break to restart the game and reset the culminating point. This time it was the gas supplies that were cut off gradually as a pressure mechanism to make NATO give up.
It seems that again the West has doubled up and is resigned to pass Winter without energy.
So I expect a new reset and new goals. A new way to pressure the West to give up. What leverage does the RF have? Well, the full out War but that will come at a great cost to Russia. In morale and keeping order internally. On the other side, the West will also suffer in pretty much the same way. So that is an option. But I must say it is far from what Russia wanted to achive nack in February and it looks to me like too much of doing what the enemy wants.
Another option for a new goal is to wait for the West to make a mistake and miscalculate, e.g, whether they can keep EU citizens morale high during the coming Winter. It is a gamble though.
A third option, the least popular here but one that needs considering, is to defend only key assets like the land bridge to Crimea with the goal of reversing the roles and waiting until Ukrainians run out of steam. I mean, there are plenty that will see little reward fighting for obviously Russian majority territories, except revenge which is a very strong motivator though. Nevertheless, it also culminates at a certain point.
They might decide to storm the Donetsk front before Winter and holding it so that declaring stage 1 accomplished of the SMO will reset the culminating point. But with the loss of strategic positions in its vicinity, that may be a gamble as well.

Posted by: alek_a | Sep 10 2022 23:04 utc | 254

You guys gave me a chuckle, despite the fact you get a zero on the quiz.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 10 2022 23:06 utc | 255

Re: Roger | Sep 10 2022 22:25 utc | 258
you wrote: “Perhaps now Putin will start to be a little bolder seeing what being careful has got him, although patience may still be a virtue in the long game. The West is slowly dying, with Europe accelerating the pace for the next couple of years at least. There will be setbacks, but there is a great difference between a single battle and the overall war.”
In my opinion, Putin’s patience in the SMO — combined with seriously inadequate Russian force levels — has now, at least temporarily, cost Russia the initiative. I have to assume that Russia must react forcefully to the NATO/Ukrainian offensive and move large numbers of regular Russian military to prevent further retreat. However, this is the first significant Ukrainian victory against Russia/LDNR militia since 2014; it constitutes a major propaganda victory for the West and will cause Putin serious political problems in Russia.
You also wrote that “. . . Putin needs to maintain a level of ethical behaviour to offset any attempts by the West to damage his reputation in the RoW.” Surely Russia has already demonstrated sufficient “ethical behavior” in the face of endless bad faith and aggression committed by the US/NATO? And this is war, were “all is fair”, correct? Relying upon inadequate numbers of Donbas militia to hold defensive positions is hardly a strategy for success. Russia would have been much better served if Putin and Shoigu had chosen to place the 50,000 Russia troops now in Vostock instead in the SMO.

Posted by: Perimetr | Sep 10 2022 23:07 utc | 256

@287
It is beginning to remind me of Khrushchev backing down on the Cuban missile crisis. Or USSR backing down with traitor Gorbachev. Maybe it is just in the Russian psyche to back down when it counts most.

Posted by: FVK | Sep 10 2022 23:16 utc | 257

@sln2002 | Sep 10 2022 22:51 utc | 278
This is the language of psychopathy. TINA but violence cultivated by one among many observing violence from a distance and who, evidently, cannot comprehend conflict resolution by any other means, because®.
Bollox that.
Most people are afraid to say “no!”. Many psychopaths get away with saying “no!” when it suits them because non-psychopaths will answer their “no!” with a “yes!”. Fun things happen when you persistently put a “no!” to psychopaths’ “no!”. Not only do the psychopaths (who cannot handle another person’s “no!”) freak out, but so does their enabling environment (consisting of individuals who cannot handle their own “no!”). Be prepared for serious escalation when you start toying with this sort of situation. If you can handle the dynamics, it is very rewarding personally.
Generally, we want to say “yes!” to the world that we encounter every moment. But in order to be able to do so consciously and willingly, we have to be able to say “no!” at will similarly. This is what makes us human.

Posted by: Lurk | Sep 10 2022 23:16 utc | 258

I have mentioned Jomini before as (IMO) the best milblogger in the game.
Here’s how he thought Ukraine would be planning its future counter-offensive all the way back in April:
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761229738389504

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 10 2022 23:18 utc | 259

Re: 11th Guards Sitzkrieg Brigade, Jeff
“All it takes to send world into an economic crisis is for Russia to stop selling commodities like:
1) Oil
2) Gas
3) Coal
4) Wood
5) Nuclear
Stop selling these to everyone for a few months, and then only sell to friendlies, and watch world go into depression.”
True.
But, do you really think the US/NATO will allow this to happen? Will they allow the dollar to be replaced or supplanted as the world’s reserve currency?
I do not. I agree with PCR.
The Globalist Bankers who control the West are 100% committed to Russia’s destruction. They have coveted Russia’s natural resources for 100 years. Now, they are all in and will escalate to whatever extent necessary. They will NEVER allow Putin’s limited SMO to succeed.
This is not a opinion based on military expertise, but on knowledge of the financial/political/dollar-hegemony stakes at risk.
When Ukrainian forces are exhausted, NATO forces will step in (if they haven’t already). Russia will NOT be allowed to choke the West off from oil and gas. These are acts of war (from Western viewpoint). Putin must end this conflict as quickly and decisively as possible (whatever it takes), then offer again to sell gas to Europe, and prepare for a surprise attack on Russia itself in the future.
““When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” (attributed to Bastiat)

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 23:18 utc | 260

This is the idiocy of the massive fuel subsidies which will continue to support nosebleed energy prices in a supply constrained environment, while massively increasing government debt, and massively increasing trade deficits as Western industry starts to shut down.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 10 2022 22:35 utc | 269
Higher fuel/electricity prices motivate people to reduce consumption. If there are instead fuel subsidies, people have less motivation to reduce consumption.
Wherever there will be fuel/electricity subsidies this winter, there will inevitably be blackouts. The UK and Germany are in a heap of trouble this winter.
I’m going to buy my battery-backup system soon before everybody else realizes what’s coming and the manufacturers sell out. It should get me through two or three hours of blackouts each day, but I don’t know if I can get my LTE router to give me internet during these upcoming blackouts.
Or maybe I’ll just move to my apartment in Russia for the winter – it’s too damn cold there 🙂 but electricity and heating are readily available and inexpensive, the restaurants are good, and there won’t be food shortages. The only problem is flying through Istanbul – the flights are full right now and are quite expensive ($10K round trip business class on Turkish Airlines LHR-LED).

Posted by: Contrarian_Ed | Sep 10 2022 23:22 utc | 261

@t, I’m none of those things but I’m glad you found a hobby. How many weeks did you say it took you to find my twitter (yenwoda) again?

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 10 2022 23:25 utc | 262

@Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 23:00 utc | 286
And now there are reports that Denis Pushilin, the Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, has resigned and fled. Why would there be a coup in DPR?
OMG WTF I am so confused now by your 77th brigade talking points referencing a twatter account that also claimed (only today no less):
https://twitter.com/Worldsource24/status/1568654272686084096?cxt=HHwWgMDSrf-v_cQrAAAA
🚨 #Lysychansk and #Severodonetsk have been reportedly reached by Ukrainian Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/Worldsource24/status/1568657838276329480?cxt=HHwWkIC-icX__sQrAAAA
🚨 Russian telegram channel claims that the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered #Russia’s #Belgorod region, stole several pieces of equipment, then retreated back to the #Kharkiv oblast.
https://twitter.com/Worldsource24/status/1568677362350571520?cxt=HHwWgIDS4f7vh8UrAAAA
🚨#BREAKING: Unconfirmed rumors that Ayatollah #Khamenei is dead
Soooo impressive. Plonk.

Posted by: Lurk | Sep 10 2022 23:26 utc | 263

Foreign Assistance

Since before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in late February Russian government sources have widely claimed that the Ukrainian Military has benefited from support from mercenary units from Western-aligned states, most notably Poland, Georgia and the Baltic States. These allegations come amid growing revelations from Western sources regarding the roles played both by Western personnel and intelligence agents on the ground in Ukraine, as well as the presence of military contractors whose deployments have been financed by Western governments.

SOURCE:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-estimates-foreign-mercenary-numbers
Western Covert Influence Campaigns
In the past two months, Twitter and Meta have quietly removed an undisclosed number of accounts linked to influence operations pushing for pro-Western narratives and propaganda targeting countries such as China, Russia and Iran.
The massive covert operations date back at least five years and span the most popular social media platforms. They have been described as “the first major covert pro-US/Western influence operation” by Stanford University’s Internet Observatory and Graphika, a network analytics firm based in New York, with which Twitter and Meta had shared some of the account data for analysis.
SOURCES:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190474/pro-west-covert-campaigns-are-no-surprise
https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:nj914nx9540/unheard-voice-tt.pdf?module=inline&pgtype=article

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 10 2022 23:29 utc | 264

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 23:18 utc | 294
So if banksters don’t want Russia to stop selling oil and other resources, how would you explain the bans for oil and gas purchase from Russia in the next few months? Or you mean they simply want it all for free.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 10 2022 23:29 utc | 265

Still needs to be confirmed, but there have been reports of the UA taking Donestk International Airport, putting them only 10 km away from the City of Donestk.
The reality that Donetsk airport has fallen to the AFU means we are looking at an Afghan National Army style collapse of the Russia’s LNR Colonial Militia.

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 23:29 utc | 266

I love these “instant narratives.” Here’s one: Putin was deposed this weekend by a cabal of western-leaning bureaucrats in the Russian government. While he’s been incommunicado orders have been given to the Russian military not to oppose the Ukrainian offensive.
Or how about another? King Charles III is a hardliner on the question of Putin, and MI-6 decided it was time to remove QEII to maximize the effects of the Ukrainian offensive. Now the war really begins.
Or here’s one. The U.S. geostationary communications satellite Galaxy 11 has been attacked by the Russian space forces, temporarily blinding part of NATO’s coverage of Ukraine. The U.S. has warned the Russians that they consider this to be an act of war, and both sides are gearing up for a major escalation. The “Ukrainian” offensive is actually comprised of NATO troops, which is why Russia attacked the satellite.
None of this is going to save European industry come winter, however…

Posted by: Jon Kennard | Sep 10 2022 23:33 utc | 267

I’m seeing a lot of this: “Putin’s limited SMO is a huge miscalculation. PCR is not a military expert,”
Martyanov doesn’t seem to think so. In fact, he is scathing. We will see if he (and Mr. Sivkov) are correct or not in the coming days.

Posted by: Maracatu | Sep 10 2022 23:37 utc | 268

Stop selling these to everyone for a few months, and then only sell to friendlies, and watch world go into depression.
Posted by: 11th Guards Sitzkrieg Brigade, Jeff | Sep 10 2022 22:46 utc | 275
Indeed, the evidence is all around us. Not only EU but USA, collectively G7. There is no “backstop” for supply chain disruption, because all these “developed economies” depend on physical delivery of the raw materials on which every dimension of their “professional” service industries rely to satiate price-sensitive, resource-poor “consumer” demand for NEW! brand-name electronic durable and nondurable products, cheap carbohydrates, lethal weapons, and middle-class “dignity”. Also there is no “backstop” for unpredictable natural disasters.

Posted by: sln2002 | Sep 10 2022 23:37 utc | 269

Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 23:18 utc | 294
It doesn’t really matter much what “Globalist Bankers who control the West” think, as they do not control these resources.
They failed to get a grip on Iran, Venezuela, and to be honest, Russia is a much bigger fish to try to fry.
Take a good look at global things what is going on – oil production is going down, while demand is rising big time. US used to be a major producer, but not anymore, now the states are importing oil, like rest of western countries.

Posted by: 11th Guards Sitzkrieg Brigade, Jeff | Sep 10 2022 23:40 utc | 270

Too soon to say for sure, but it looks like there’s some capitulation and breakthrough happening along the front, I guess in the northeast. Russia will have to patch this up quickly, or it could turn into a panic, especially when there have been so few gains to show for the past few months.
The (unconfirmed) Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory is a warning that the Ukrainians won’t simply re-form a neat, orderly border.
I think the Russians will let the chips fall, and then reassess. As the Ukrainian military warned recently, tactical nuclear weapons are the most likely response if things get really dire, and especially if cross-border strikes continue. The U.S. would have already used them, in all probability. I doubt strikes would be limited to military targets.
The West is crowing, obviously, but that’s because only the bloodless among them understand what they’re really doing: backing the #1 nuclear power into a corner, a short drive from that elusive trophy, the Caucasus, while it’s already under a near-blockade. Anyone in the West with even a dim memory of nuclear terror understood from day 1 that de-escalation, realpolitik, and some semblance of neutrality was the way forward. Too late for that, unless Putin effaces himself and moves for a deal — not impossible, but not likely.

Posted by: line islands | Sep 10 2022 23:41 utc | 271

Well others have a quite different view. Try this by smoothie who insists that it was, indeed, a trap to lure the UF into non fortified areas that can be pulverised a la kherson. he says it is going even better than the kherson debacle.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/

Posted by: Oh | Sep 10 2022 23:41 utc | 272

“Putin must end this conflict as quickly and decisively as possible (whatever it takes), then offer again to sell gas to Europe, and prepare for a surprise attack on Russia itself in the future.”
Posted by: Thor Odinson | Sep 10 2022 23:18 utc | 294
Can you kindly explain why the heck he would find this of benefit to RF?

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 23:45 utc | 273

@310 carlos
read this, russian forces have pulled back and have suffered few casualties. thousands of uf kia sofar and tons of equipment destroyed. It’s a shooting gallery for rf.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/

Posted by: Oh | Sep 10 2022 23:46 utc | 274

Today Don Bacon is sounding weird to me.

Posted by: SCan | Sep 10 2022 23:50 utc | 275

What is the point of the SMO? To demilitarise and denazify Ukraine. Lure them into non fortified areas and then inflict huge casualties. Apparently this is what is happening, in kherson and kharkov regions.

Posted by: Oh | Sep 10 2022 23:51 utc | 276

Breaking news from Israel!!!!
IDF soldier fires at suspicious vehicle approaching West Bank barrier.  This is obviously part of the Ukrainian offensive, a pincer movement where the IDF fires on a “suspicious vehicle,” then pivots eastward through Jordan, northward through Syria and Turkey, liberates Abkhazia from the Russian “peacekeepers,” crosses the Caucasus, destroys the Kerch Strait bridge, pivots northward through Rostov and attacks Donetsk from the south. Looks like its over for the SMO now.

Posted by: Gary Greenwad | Sep 10 2022 23:57 utc | 277

There is no way that a military razed to ground can win against a superpower. All of these Ukrainian operations are merely to help their Angloamerican overlords to sell the war to their public – “Hey inflation is in double digits, but look – ‘freedom’ is winning!”.
Russia wants to take this slow and minimize impact to both Russian state budget, Russian military, Ukrainian people and Ukrainian infrastructure until the winter arrives. Because that’s when the energy crisis will hit those who prepared this war in the Angloamerican West. Whereas Russia will gain the time to push forward the multipolar world organization that is already happening.

Posted by: Dodrey Dougherton | Sep 11 2022 0:00 utc | 278

@313
Why indeed. The last months have made me contemptuous of all these worthless “multipolar” pundits.
They are vultures and blowhards making money off of misery, nothing more.

Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 11 2022 0:07 utc | 279

Lurk @ 298
And Queen Elizabeth did not die, she was overthrown by Charles who ordered Putin to withdraw Russian forces from the Ukraine. Putin fearfully complied with his order.
Charles plans to conduct his coronation in Moscow as the Russians have agreed to join the United Kingdom.

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 11 2022 0:09 utc | 280

@Petri Krohn | Sep 10 2022 16:29 utc | 32

I agree. The decision to withdraw was made before the NATO offensive, or at least at the very beginning. The new frontier will be the Oskil River. The areas east of it will be integrated into the Lugansk People’s Republic.

Armchair Warlord has an interesting take on things. He suspects, that Russian troops were withdrawn from the area long before the Ukrainian offensive. Evidently Russia did not have the political will to hang on to Kharkov.

Morning Ukraine update!
The big news today is that Russian forces have withdrawn from Izyum – which moots my analysis of last night, predicated on news things had stabilized after some fighting.
This does, however, indicate the Russians conducted a planned withdrawal.
We’ve seen this before in both Kiev (on a large scale) and east Kharkov (on a small scale) – when the Russians write off an area they’ll hollow it out quietly and tell the screening troops at the front to retreat on contact.
Both of which had similar results to this present operation – Ukrainian troops making large advances with little fighting in areas the Russians seemed to have simply disappeared from, with little in the way of actual Russian losses.
In retrospect, it is clear the Russians withdrew significant forces from Izyum recently – they stopped attacking south out of it on any level weeks ago, and abandoned significant terrain in the area.
Similarly the front north of Balakleya was held by what basically amounted to a picket line of LPR troops with little behind them, who retreated immediately. I assumed this was an negligent earlier, but it was likely intentional – these guys were “keeping the lights on.”
Unlike the two previous withdrawals, the Russians were happy to inflict a heavy toll on advancing Ukrainian units with airstrikes.
Russian units slipped away with minimal losses to establish a new line on the east side of the Oskol River.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 11 2022 0:15 utc | 281

Kadyrov has just given a statement. He does not seem pleased.
He is the one leader who appears to be coming out well from the war. A new Stalin?

Posted by: Moaobserver | Sep 11 2022 0:22 utc | 282

I know very little about either Russia, Ukraine or this war so perhaps my question is naïve but how do we reconcile the accusation that the Ukrainians (at least the ones fighting the Russians) are Nazis (or at least aspire to be, and from some of the videos I’ve seen that does appear to be true, e.g. straight arm salute) with a Ukrainian leadership that is apparently Jewish?
Thanks for any thoughts you may have on this.

Posted by: RTX | Sep 11 2022 0:41 utc | 283

@Moaobserver | Sep 11 2022 0:42 utc | 331

I like the viewpoints of Erwin Castel at alawata-rebelion .. I wonder if you know him.. he is a french ..

I met him at the pub at Hotel Central in Donetsk in the summer of 2016. He was having a beer with a Basque guy and a Columbian guy. All in uniform.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 11 2022 0:58 utc | 284

The thread is much more readable now that quitting time has passed in the US. Less than a dozen die hard trolls left to drive the signal-to-noise ratio down.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 11 2022 1:20 utc | 285

Another thing I just discovered is that the mean IQ of Ukraine is apparently only 90! This can be compared with Russia’s 96. Corresponding world ranks are 57 and 35 respectively. Quite a difference.

Posted by: RTX | Sep 11 2022 1:22 utc | 286

peterAB@319
Do you have any sources beyond Reddit, which is widely known as an imperial controlled site? Russians abandoning their heavy weaponry? Sounds like a crock to me. Offer some real proof in this fog of war situation.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 1:25 utc | 287

Line Islands @ 320
Nukes??? Fuggidaboutit. No nukes necessary. The kinetic power of hypersonic missiles can knock out just about anything and so can thermobaric weaponry. First target: Rottenchild crime clan bank in City of London.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 1:28 utc | 288

This is all or nothing time for the puppet regime in Kiefffff and their NATO/U$$A babysitters. Had the Russians actually withdrawn most of their major forces from the Kharkov region? Time will tell. Ukies and Natostanis are moving in at will, it would seem.
What if Russia goes balls to the walls on the Ukie supply lines, reaching clear to the Romanian and Polak borders? Stand-off aircraft missiles and the ground-based types can ravage Ukraine’s bridges and other infrastructure. Wars are won on the basis of logistics. No time to play softball now as the Pukes and the Natostanis are all in. Their manpower and materiel losses have been massive. The masterstroke would be to demolish the logistics chain and leave all those assault units without the means to continue the onslaught.
Make no mistake about it. With aerial and missile supremacy, Russia can mess up the Ukes heavily, even without direct on the ground moves. This war is not about fun n’ games. It’s for real. The enemies of humanity have given most of their chips to their Ukie catspaws. Properly placed hypersonics and thermobarics have the capacity to terminate the current shitshow.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 1:46 utc | 289

Well this is what happens when you go in with 60k men and expect your opponent to be scared of your reputation.
Too bad the sleep walking involves letting NATO heavy equipment and artillery free passage from Poland right down to the front lines. And all out in the open for everyone to see without fear of being obliterated. Saw the train full of Polish Krav self propelled artillery in Naziland just before their attack.
Nazis are not stupid to know they have 300k to your 60k. They just need to fix your smaller force to the frontline and gather their bulk to strike at your weak point which US is kind enough to inform them. Not to mention that NATO forces are openly embedded and directing the Nazi forces.
NATO command center in Odessa is working in total safety.
This is how not to fight with 1 hand tied behind your back and only react to your opponent, fearful of “escalation”. Nope US is escalating at every step.

Posted by: Surferket | Sep 11 2022 1:50 utc | 290

T. @346
The Swiss, with the Gnomes of Zurich closely connected with the ruling Western financiers are no longer even making a pretense of neutrality. Can one trust them? After all, the Rottenchild controlled Bank of International Settlements is located in that miserly state.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 1:52 utc | 291

Big Serge has some thoughts and a perspective perhaps worth listening to
he reports on twitter and with longer posts at Substack too
he does note at the beginning of the analysis, Stay Calm!
https://twitter.com/witte_sergei/status/1568298264361078784
“Why I believe that Ukraine’s current offensive in the Kharkov region is becoming a costly failure….”
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
Ukraine Counterattacks! Please Remain Calm
“….What Happens Now?
It seems probable to me that Ukraine’s advance has reached, or is nearing its culmination, as Russian reserves flood into the area, Russia missile strikes attack the Ukrainian command post in Chuguev, and Russian aviation and artillery begin to lay it on thick. The choice Ukraine now faces is whether to continue to funnel forces into the salient that they have created for themselves – in other words, Ukraine now gets to decide the scale of its losses. According to Ukrainian insider channels, they are currently planning to double down and feed more reserves in, promising a correspondingly larger defeat.
I don’t like to make concrete predictions about dates or casualty numbers. There are far too many unknowns for anyone to actually think they can predict such specifics. But regarding the general trajectory, I am confident predicting that Ukraine’s offensive is nearing the high water mark and will soon become a mass casualty event for the Ukrainian army. It may take a few more days for the situation to stabilize entirely, but that point is rapidly approaching and many of Ukraine’s best units face destruction.
However, I would be remiss if I did not make an appropriate critique of Russia’s conduct of this operation. There are still important lessons to be learned…..
….In and of itself, these city does not have major operational value, but it does have Russian civilians in it who would be exposed to Ukrainian revenge if the city was temporarily recaptured. Russia must reconsider its force deployment so that it can more firmly hold settlements at the frontline for the sake of these civilians….”

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 11 2022 2:16 utc | 292

Ukraine should get her billions more now…
Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 10 2022 21:29 utc | 235
Ukraine would have got those billions regardless.
The reasoning might have been different, but that outcome would’ve remained the same.
Posted by: Martina | Sep 10 2022 21:34 utc | 236
Doctorow agrees with you:
“In last night’s talk show program, host Vladimir Solovyov said that this latest push in the Ukrainian counter-offensive was timed to coincide with the gathering at the Ramstein air base, Germany of top officials from NATO and other allies under the direction of the visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. If the Ukrainian efforts were failing in the field, then the cry would go up: we must provide them with more weapons and training. And if the Ukrainian efforts in the counter-offensive were succeeding, those in attendance at Ramstein would hear exactly the same appeal to aid Kiev.”
Later he continues with what the highest-placed panelist had to say:
“So, what did Solovyov have to say? First, that Ramstein marked a new stage in the war, because of the more threatening nature of the weapons systems announced for delivery, such as missiles with accuracy of 1 to 2 meters when fired from distances of 20 or 30 kilometers thanks to their GPS-guided flight, in contrast to the laser-guided missiles delivered to Ukraine up till now. In the same category, there are weapons designed to destroy the Russians’ radar systems used for directing artillery fire. Second, that Ramstein marked the further expansion of the coalition or holy crusade waging war on Russia. Third, that in effect this is no longer a proxy war but a real direct war with NATO and should be prosecuted with appropriate mustering of all resources at home and abroad.
Said Solovyov, Russia should throw off constraints and destroy the Ukrainian dual use infrastructure which makes it possible to move Western weapons across the country to the front. The railway system, the bridges, the electricity generating stations all should become fair targets. Moreover, Kiev should no longer be spared missile strikes and destruction of the ministries and presidential apparatus responsible for prosecution of the war. I note that these ideas were aired on the Solovyov program more than a month ago but then disappeared from view while the Russians were making great gains on the ground. The latest setbacks and the new risks associated with the Western policies set out at Ramstein bring them to the surface again.
Solovyov also argued that Russia should now use in Ukraine its own most advanced weapons that have similar characteristics to what NATO is delivering to the other side. As a sub-point, Russia should consider neutralizing in one way or another the GPS guidance for U.S. weapons. Of course, if this means destroying or blinding the respective U.S. satellites, that would mean crossing a well-known U.S. red line or casus belli.
Next, in the new circumstances, Russia should abandon its go-it-alone policy and actively seek out complementary weapons systems from previously untouchable countries, such as Iran and North Korea. Procurements from both have till now been minimal. On this issue, a couple of panelists with military expertise were allowed to explain that both these countries have sophisticated and proven weapons that could greatly assist Russia’s war effort. Iran has unbeatable drones which carry hefty explosive charges and have proven their worth in operations that are unmentionable on public television. And North Korea has very effective tanks and highly portable field artillery which are both fully compatible with Russian military practice, because the designs were based on Chinese weapons, which in turn were copies of Russia’s own. These weapons also have shown their worth in the hands of unnamed purchasers in the Middle East. Moreover, North Korea has a vast store of munitions fully compatible with Russian artillery. It was also mentioned in passing that insofar as Kiev has mobilized in the field many Western mercenaries and covert NATO officers, Russia should also recruit from abroad, as for example, whole brigades from North Korea available for hire.
If any of these ideas put out by Solovyov last night are indeed implemented by the Kremlin, then the present confrontation in and over Ukraine will truly become globalized, and we have the outlines of what may be called World War III. However, I note that the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or otherwise, does not figure at all in the set of options that official Moscow discusses in relation to the challenges it faces in its Ukraine operation. Such a possibility would arise only if the NATO forces being sent to the EU’s ‘front line states’ grew in number by several times those presently assigned and appeared to be preparing to invade Russia.”

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/09/u-s-ups-the-ante-are-we-indeed-headed-into-wwiii-and-what-can-save-us/
So: maybe Phase III beginning soon?

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 11 2022 2:18 utc | 293

Posted by: Inkan1969 | Sep 10 2022 23:29 utc | 301

The reality that Donetsk airport has fallen to the AFU means we are looking at an Afghan National Army style collapse of the Russia’s LNR Colonial Militia.

More troll-driven b.s and psyops.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 11 2022 2:35 utc | 294

Posted by: Peter in AB | Sep 11 2022 1:59 utc | 352

Sure, plenty of sources. But I don’t have the time or the crayons, or the profit motive …

Plenty of sources? That would be out of character for someone whose been spouting a non-stop stream of random chatter for two days straight.
No profit motive huh? … But you DO have the profit to post round the clock drivel without the decency to defend your shitposts with actual rationale?
I have yet to see a single one of your ‘arguments’ stand up to scrutiny.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 11 2022 2:39 utc | 295

Galloping Greg @ 350
Your true colors are certainly in full evidence. How can anyone with a human soul support the puppet terrorist regime in Kiefffffff? This war is titanic. It is between the enemies of humanity and those who oppose the unipolar world of the WEF and the Bank$ters who cut the orders.
As a ’44 model, born at the core of the War, one day before “genius” Montgomery attempted to go a bridge too far when the treasonous DD Eisenhower presented him with the football (fuel and munitions) rather than backing George Patton’s 3rd Army which had just cracked the major German stronghold in Alsace-Lorraine.
So it is more than slightly likely that I can address you as “Junior”…just a tad wet behind the ears and most probably quite deficient in geopolitical reality or on military history–a minor sideline of a mere 400 volumes in my library.
To the gallows with you and your ilk. Despite the Scots monicker, you come on like some Brit Twit.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 2:56 utc | 296

Peter, Peter bumpkin beater @354
Charity begins at home, as per the ancient adage. You might commence by consulting non imperial sources and then dig deep, deep, deep in order to ascertain if you possess a soupçon of common sense.

Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 11 2022 3:01 utc | 297

Anyone know if that river they ran over fills up in average rain storms? The Russians may have made it out at a lucky time, seems like a rainy few days have arived.

Posted by: OhhCanada | Sep 11 2022 3:04 utc | 298

RTX | Sep 11 2022 0:41 utc | 330
Rather than be surprised at this “strange” alliance.
Look to the history you were never taught in school (or anywhere).
Who financed Germany and that Austrian painter to become the largest best equipped military in Europe just 20 years after its total defeat in WW1.
Then dig into cui bono WW1.
Then realise the world is not what you have been convinced to believe.
Who financed and controlled ISIS?
Who financed and controlled the original Taliban / Mujahideen
Who financed and controlled al quad-a?
Who financed and controlled demolished (3) Twin Towers?
I could go on (and on and on and on…. right back to who financed and controlled the Wahhabi sect to take over “saudi” arabia. )
Once you begin to see who is financing who, and controlling who,… you see a pattern, and will have no surprise or confusion as to how and why a Jewish president, with his Jewish government and Jewish NATO masters, is happily hand in glove with Nazis. Both the real ones and their alloy larpers.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 11 2022 3:07 utc | 299

Breath-in, breath-out. Trolls included (on all sites)! we’re all ‘Armchair Reckoners’ with varying depths, ranges, and partial fields of personal and professional attention and information, not a one of which ‘knows’ the RF status, plans, intentions or adaptability – save for the broad ‘wrap’ of ‘Demilitarize, Denazify, Defend Donbass’.
The truth is none of us knows or will know the full truth of what’s happening. Everything else for now is varied individual or group degrees [including ‘NATO’, RAND, RUSI, et al.] of reckoning, speculation, guessing, jig-sawing (partial pieces and projections of our own what’s supposed to / should be / ought to logically / if only / etc would happen), ‘see it this way’, ‘see it my/our way’, etc.
This ‘war’ is being simultaneously fought on several [at least three] complex and interacting fronts (stress interacting, and moreso n-dimensional ‘Go’ and ‘Chess’ rather than ‘Poker’ or ‘Checkers’):
– Geopolitical (killing the empire and its ‘resets’),
– Neopolitical (building a new, global (except for the ‘West’ at present) mutual currency, trade, financial, sovereign, political etc. reality [BRICS+, SCO, EAEU, and all the stuff Pepe and others point out],
– SMO [‘Demilitarize, Denazify, Defend’]
– Circumstance [weather, ‘moves’ (like US/EU/UK elective hara-kiri [ritual suicide by disembowelment] sanctions), at least 75% of the planet(!) is increasingly and visibly voting for and moving to assist Russia, et al.
So many posters almost everywhere are very focused on the short-term status of SMO ‘moves’ or on longer-term (Feb-Sep) apparent SMO developments, without even an ‘inner’ ear as to actual RF thinking, intents, planning, execution, and re-thinking.
I echo many others like ‘WTFUD’/Saker (“We’ll have all the situational details shortly and great or not so great, we stand by Russia/Donbass/Decent Ukrainians and pray for NATO’s ultimate defeat.”) and ‘Robert Michael Hope’/Saker (“I do have faith however that Russia shall not be defeated. The rot of the west is terminal.”).
And as ‘Cara VanNetta’/Saker earlier reminded us, tomorrow is September 11, better known in America as 9/11. A Russian strategy echo(?) as well as an ancient biblical one (Ecclesiastes 9/11 [KJV]):
“11 I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.”
Clear skies RF

Posted by: Pilar | Sep 11 2022 3:11 utc | 300