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September 29, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-161
Comments
@unimperator | Sep 30 2022 14:52 utc | 439
The neuro-degenerative Stoltenberg, EU and UN head Guterres apparently want to make some statements tonight. I guess they will tell us something that the US MIC has ordered them to tell us.
Maybe it is a signing ceremony for Guterres’ accession to NATO?
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 14:56 utc | 401
@tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 14:52 utc | 440
Excellent post. I think you are right. The idiots behind this do not thing beyond instant gratification. As you said, the political kick back will be ferocious.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 14:59 utc | 402
…
In the USA, for the second time in history, there is a “bunker boom”. The first one occurred in the 1960s, when Americans believed in the possibility of nuclear war. Now bunkers and bomb shelters have become liquid real estate again.
…
Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 14:44 utc | 435
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foster,_You%27re_Dead!
This Philip K. Dick story was reworked into the “Safe and Sound” episode of Electric Dreams:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6980876/
The rework looks as what could happen when a mega-corporation with a security division can address members of the public individually and covertly. In the way of art imitating life, the fictitious corporation uses its surveillance access to identify vulnerable people and then addresses them covertly in order to radicalise them into active terrorists, all to prop up the profit margins of its security division.
Leaving aside made-for-TV flavour, I found this story adaptation to be exceptionally close to the mark of how school shooters and other obviously manufactured, ready-to-roll nutcases are groomed and handled.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 30 2022 15:06 utc | 403
@Wellthen 431
Any purported explanation needs to address the repeated flights of the American MH-60S Rotary wing aircraft particularly FFAB123 in the time preceding the demolition of the pipeline, as the timing and aircraft track makes it extremely improbable that this is unrelated. With this establishing opportunity, the description of BALTOPS establishing means, and the multiple statements by American leaders addressed by Maria Zakharova’s Briefing Q&A – 30/09/2022/09/30 provide motive. No other party combines all three, although it is conceivable (but very unlikely, given the USA’s distrust of “aliens”) that the US provided transport to a different group Which placed the explosives alongside the buried pipeline. However with some of the pipeline at about 500 feet this would have required rather unusual specialized equipment and expertise which we know the US and UK possesses, but other state actors not involved in offshore deep-water operations may not. Had I planned the operation, I would not have involved anyone other than special forces or intelligence operatives in all stages of the operation in order to maintain secrecy, would have money mized the people involved, and would have launched multiple hand-steered drones used by other countries (just in case identifiable remnants are found and exposed in the unlikely event that control of the “investigation” intended to blame Russia is lost), guided to the detonation location from the MH-60S, with each drone using multiple delayed detonators to allow time for my personnel to leave the site, yet ensure the destruction of potential evidence. I suspect that this is precisely what may have transpired here
Which provides a useful metric for evaluating assertions about this event.
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 15:06 utc | 404
@431 Wellthen
There is no strategic gain for the US or the West in crippling Germany or making it reliant on some Anglo cabal.
The Russian entry into Ukraine made any possibility of Germany relying on Russian gas in the future a non-starter, so there is no need to sabotage anything – and yes I accept that non-operating is the better description.
This is not, in my opinion, some complex diabolical plot on anyones side. For Russia the SMO is not going well, public opinion has dipped negatively with mobilisation. Russia would end it tomorrow with the four annexed territories, and the pipeline sabotage is just part of the pressure Russia is trying to exert to bring this about.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 15:07 utc | 405
@marko #3
Twitter
That’s why Orfalea is making a living on videos where multiple people are saying the same thing, the same way.
Note I am not referring to Twitter the company but the technology. Never before has such detailed control and self/community enforcement of norms been possible.
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 30 2022 15:08 utc | 406
tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 14:52 utc | 440
Right on the money !
But I still cannot see who exactly is the prime suspect to lead the opposition.
Good post, you should stop taking them !……….:-)
Posted by: Lapin | Sep 30 2022 15:08 utc | 407
Below is the truth straight from the horse’s ass of Reuters
WARSAW, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Major leaks that suddenly erupted in the Nord Stream gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea have generated plenty of theories but few clear answers about who or what caused the damage.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 30 2022 15:15 utc | 409
This Yenwoda clown and the other newer troll seem to be unfit for the intellectual level of this blog. I’d suggest their employers find some better informed workers, send these guys to do CNN YouTube comments or something like that.
Posted by: James c | Sep 30 2022 15:16 utc | 411
What happens when the Baltic Pipe (https://www.baltic-pipe.eu/) gets blown up?
Posted by: Paul | Sep 30 2022 15:16 utc | 412
Posted by: fanto | Sep 30 2022 3:01 utc | 194
Fanto – Shall trespass on “b”‘s comment section space to say hello to a fellow ex-pilgrim. Great to see you surfacing again.
And before I also became “ex” I missed you sorely on the Colonel’s site. Because I see Scholz as the key to the current felo de se of Europe and you might have explained that mystery.
Mystery it is. The assumption among those I knew and knew of in Germany had been that Scholz would continue the Merkel tight rope dance. He, like Merkel, would also manage to keep NS2 going ahead while not upsetting the Americans too much.
I saw people so confident of that that they were saying, “Keine Sorge, it’ll all blow over and by summer next year, latest, we’ll see NS2 up and running.”
I’m not saying that was what all the people I knew voted for, but it was the background to their voting. Instead, what did they get? They got what Scholz must have known was a deliberate provocation of the Russians followed by a full-blown sanctions war.
I refuse to believe that Scholz was the new boy on the block who got rushed into it by Biden. I believe this was a decision taken during the coalition talks. There’s since been gossip that in those talks Scholz and his coalition partners to be had already decided on German re-militarisation. I think that in those coalition talks they decided as well on the whole enterprise of provocation followed by sanctions.
Else we have to believe that the most powerful country in Europe by far was just dragged willy-nilly into the mess by the Americans. I don’t believe that. Scholz had more independent agency than he is credited with by most. Am I right?
……………….
Returning to the Colonel – he’ll always by the guru to me, though I’m not able to follow him at present – your analogy using the central nervous system gets it to my mind dead right. Get a parasite into that central nervous system and the entire otherwise healthy organism if controls goes haywire.
The Colonel was there – shrewd, observant, covering all the angles – right at the time when the “neocon” parasite gained entry to the central nervous system of that unwitting giant, the United States of America. He wrote of it:-
https://web.archive.org/web/20090609172955/http:/www.mepc.org/journal_vol11/0406_lang.asp
I think they were still called “hawks” then. Now, in common parlance, “neocons”. It’s a sobering thought that all our destinies are now in their hands. A handful of men and women parasitising that central nervous system bringing the entire West down.
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 30 2022 15:27 utc | 413
So, the pipeline sabotage benefits Russia then? After all if Ukraine did it, it will scupper weapons, aid deliveries and future EU membership and if the US did it, it will fracture the Western consensus. My logic would argue that given these real downsides, there is no gain in Ukraine or the US or UK in carrying out this action.
Remarkably, and by your own logic, the only real beneficiary of the sabotage is Russia, which perhaps leads one to conclude they carried out the sabotage to create confusion and doubt in its opponents. This is based on your own reasoning of course.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 14:36 utc | 427
Only the US truly benefits from extinguishing gas supplies from Russia to Europe. Its entire industrial manufacturing sector (cars, airplanes, military hardware and whatnot) massively benefits from it. Consensus doesn’t matter the least when one partner has completely screwed the other, the latter which is the EU just has to suck it up and will comply to whatever the former which is the US asks/offers in order to not completely collapse, a new form of consensus indeed.
Posted by: Mushroom | Sep 30 2022 15:27 utc | 414
@Paul Greenwood #422, since you seem to be good at translations could you help translating this from the Vostok Battalion (GRU spetsnaz)?
https://twitter.com/ru2ch/status/1575847384931864576
@James c #453, that sounds like a dream posting. CNN viewers are much better-informed about the war than people here, so it would be far more intellectually stimulating. Can I use you as a reference?
Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 30 2022 15:30 utc | 415
tonyopmoc @ 440
Question. To which I do not have the answer. Presuming nothing is done to effect repairs in short term how much worse does it get? Can damage be isolated remotely or would that require workmen and equipment onsite?
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 30 2022 15:31 utc | 417
Ukraine applies for accelerated membership in NATO.
https://www.axios.com/2022/09/30/zelensky-nato-accelerated-application-ukraine
Posted by: Kellen Cramer | Sep 30 2022 15:31 utc | 418
@Marco 428
Western politicians see the same propaganda in the same OMM (Oligarch Managed Media) and, because it is so good, prefer it over stone cold sober analysis and modeling by the military, Rand Corp and others who have repeatedly warned that the US can no longer win a conventional war against either Russia or China, let alone both. And we hav known since at least 2014 that a significant nuclear war will result in a mass extinction event that most extant species (plant and animal) will not survive.
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 15:33 utc | 419
@Kellen Cramer | Sep 30 2022 15:31 utc | 460
“Ukraine applies for accelerated membership in NATO.”
Only Russian missiles accelerate in that direction.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 15:38 utc | 420
there is no mileage in arguing with people of blind faith…
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 14:20 utc | 413
I ponder whether utilising the acronym ‘UK’ in your moniker qualifies yourself as one engaged in “blind faith”
Posted by: Jon_in_AU | Sep 30 2022 15:40 utc | 421
The only beneficiary is Russia.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 14:52 utc | 438
Your sense of realism is very lacking. Why would the Russians cut their noses off to spite their face? You may find it reasonable to throw away billions of investment just to be able to put the finger up to the EU. Nobody else would. You must be a Brexiter. On the other hand the Yanks don’t care; it’s not them losing out. It’s Germany and Russia paying, and we have the overt threat from Biden. It’s amazing what contortions Brexiters go through to try and find a justification for their claims.
Posted by: laguerre | Sep 30 2022 15:41 utc | 422
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 14:52 utc | 438
I used your logic, and laguerre’s,
What exactly was their logic and how did you use it to arrive at that bizarre conclusion?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 30 2022 15:41 utc | 423
@Hermit 446
My apologies, “money mized” is Google’s “korektion” of “minimized”.
There are, I think, grounds beyond their politically manipulated search results and suppression of digital discussion to dislike Google.
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 15:42 utc | 424
RE: Melaleuca | Sep 30 2022 13:30 utc | 387
Do you have a link for this, please?
Posted by: Steven Starr | Sep 30 2022 15:42 utc | 425
@440 tonyopmoc
So, in summary – ‘Yeah, it would be a disaster for the US, so this is why they did it.’
A sentiment that is popular on here, yet the inherent contradiction is ignored, presumably on the grounds that the US does dumb stuff sometimes (which it does), yet Russia does dumb stuff, like invading Ukraine with 200k troops and attempting to take Kiev and getting its arse handed to them. The notion that Russia did sabotage the pipeline has equal, if not more credence, because Russia has a lot less to lose at this stage than the US.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 15:43 utc | 426
Posted by: Mushroom | Sep 30 2022 15:27 utc | 456
israel would benefit massively from it.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 30 2022 15:45 utc | 427
I notice the emergence of the “bleed Russia into eventual defeat” hypothesis on many message boards. I think there are a number of problems with the idea.
First, I would hope that Russia now is ready to threaten ALL Ukr. infrastructure including Kiev. They have avoided doing this and it could cripple Ukraine for years to come. Freeze, starve, end mass troop movement by rail. Shoot at us and we will wreck you.
Second, even in Vietnam, they were forced into stalemate and negotiation when the US shut down Haiphong. Russia could do the same even if they never capture Odessa.
Finally, there is the question of who’s bleeding who? The US and Britain will have to take over Ukraine’s funding far more than just war. This will go on for a while since the maintanence of Empire are a bigger priority than caring for their own citizens. However, that might not last forever. The EU is impotent here. Ukraine’s blank check situation can’t go on forever.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 30 2022 15:47 utc | 428
What if Ukraine gets accepted into NATO immediately and invokes the Article 5.
I think EU population is eager for war, they are ready to be drafted, they want something spectacular to happen in their lives.
Posted by: marko | Sep 30 2022 14:30 utc | 423
You’ll find an interesting phenomenon: Everyone who is so eager for that war will be extremely surprised when you try to draft them. Of course that war must be fought – but they are not soldiers. Let other people join the army and do the dying.
I remember a Ukrainian blogger, a very pro-Ukrainian and war-supporting man, who argued that he was absolutely against getting drafted into the army. He was a blogger not a soldier, so why would his government want to draft him? They need fighters, not him… He was absolutely flabberghasted that 90% of his readers totally agreed with him: they did not want to join the army, either. Same reason.
Don’t try to speak for the EU population at large. Speak for yourself. If you want to be a part of that war, go and join Ukraine’s Foreign Legion. They need people like you. I wish EU politicians would heed this advice as well. They are in favor of that war – they won’t fight at the front lines, after all. And neither will their family members.
Posted by: Martina | Sep 30 2022 15:48 utc | 429
What happens when the Baltic Pipe (https://www.baltic-pipe.eu/) gets blown up?
Posted by: Paul | Sep 30 2022 15:16 utc | 454
Who plans to blow that one up? Latest threats seem to be directed towards Turkstream which delivers gas to Turkey, Serbia and Hungary.
But to answer your question: things will get ugly. NATO and EU threatened anyone who damages their active energy infrastructure. NS1&2 were not active. I guess Baltic Pipe is – even though it does not deliver gas since none is available.
Posted by: Martina | Sep 30 2022 15:54 utc | 430
Posted by: Martina | Sep 30 2022 15:48 utc | 435
It’s the same as these anglo saxons are advocating a war on Russia, yet they only want eastern Europeans to fight it and sit home following it on twitter and telegram. Sure, there are a lot of idiots in Eastern Europe but not all of them are suicidal. The suicidal ones have and will join the Ukrainian free legion. Otherwise, they can sod off.
When you see videos of drafting in Ukraine, it’s really horrid. I’ve seen a guy beating up the draft enforcer, people get chased around on streets, in the countryside, in the beaches, nightclubs, people trying to leave amidst long trains of freight wagons. They can even casually ambush random people on streets, kind of like kidnappers do. Horrid to watch.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2022 15:56 utc | 431
israel would benefit massively from it.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 30 2022 15:45 utc | 430
Do you mean by selling some gas they steal from the Palestinians to the EU in the future?
This is nowhere near as massive as the US screwing its number one competitor in the huge car and commercial airliner markets IMO.
Without cheap enough energy it’ll soon be be bye bye Airbus and Boeing will regain monopoly.
Same with the other industrial fields where the EU is a major competitor to the US.
Posted by: Mushroom | Sep 30 2022 15:58 utc | 432
@Martina | Sep 30 2022 15:54 utc | 436
NATO and EU threatened anyone who damages their active energy infrastructure. NS1&2 were not active.
“Active” terminology was inserted after the pipelines were “deactivated” by sanctions. And “anyone” is NATO itself as everybody knows.
I guess Baltic Pipe is – even though it does not deliver gas since none is available.
Wrong.
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 30 2022 15:59 utc | 433
james c @453
every narrative needs protagonist and antagonist. this forum is no exception 😉
Posted by: tigger | Sep 30 2022 15:59 utc | 434
james c @417 since it seems suddenly the number pf posts seem to reduced?
Posted by: tigger | Sep 30 2022 16:02 utc | 435
It was Navy Seals… like to take credit things they didn’t do, like kill OBT in his Abbottabad compound. Yet total silence on the pipeline operation for fear of blowback.
SOP for the Empire of Lies.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 30 2022 16:02 utc | 436
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 30 2022 15:56 utc | 437
The Mexican Army used to use lassoes for recruiting.
Posted by: John Kennard | Sep 30 2022 16:09 utc | 437
@428 laguerre
A hard no on Brexit, a monumental act of stupidity.
The pipeline is dead. It’s a ex-pipeline. It has joined the choir invisible. It is deceased, bereft of economic life.
Europe is not going to hock its future to Russian gas. No major European country is going down that route again. Russia tanked that market, and is spending billions to retreat in Ukraine so what’s the cost of blowing up a pipeline or two?
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 16:09 utc | 438
English Outsider @419
re Scholz – I was for long time thinking the same that he would follow Merkel’s foot steps. But now I think he was pushed off this path and follows the hawks to the T. How he was pushed – it is left to speculations.
Posted by: fanto | Sep 30 2022 16:12 utc | 439
@ 435 Martina
And that, word for word, is how it played out in Russia. As long as it was an SMO and didn’t intrude, then fine. As soon as mobilisation hit, then pro war sentiment dropped, accusations of over recruitment in poorer and minority regions, people fleeing – even Russian State TV has talked about the bungling of mobilisation and people not having their jobs protected as promised.
There are always two sides to a story, and people, funnily enough, are pretty much the same the world over.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 16:15 utc | 440
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 30 2022 15:31 utc | 420
“Presuming nothing is done to effect repairs in short term how much worse does it get? Can damage be isolated remotely or would that require workmen and equipment onsite? ”
Whilst I have done a bit of plumbing and diving, I know very little about undersea gas pipes, except from what I have read today, and basic knowledge of physics.
The pipelines, are pressurised with gas, and the pressure, will stop the ingress of sea water, until the pressure is turned off (try blowing bubbles through a straw in a glass of water to demonstrate the effect). It would seem sensible, and the same is true of underground pipelines, that there would be at regular points inbuilt taps or valves, which could be turned off to stop the flow of gas, whilst the broken pipe is repaired. If you google it you will probably find the answer.
Incidentally, the UK is universally slagged off by almost everyone, sometimes including me. The water industry leaks like a sieve, every day, and discharges shit into the sea (sometimes unavoidable in flood conditions).
Gas leaks, and Gas explosions, do happen, but are extremely rare..maybe one or two a year.
A few years ago, I had a problem with low gas pressure in my home. I phoned the emergency number, and had a gas engineer arrive in less than 45 minutes. I watched him diagnose and fix it in less 15 minutes, when he changed the gas meter, and the tap, without even turning the gas off.
He says you can test it now.
I was exceedingly impressed.
Completely Free of Charge.
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 16:24 utc | 441
Anon2020@409
One of the weapons used by the secret police agencies in the U$$A is PSYCHOTRONIC WEAPONRY. Low-frequency radio wave technology has long been developed by the Deep $tate, as well as in at least one other country. Concept of this is broadcast to brain technology, where the lower (limbic) regions of the brain can be, among other factors, tripped into the reptilian “fight or flight” mode.
Largest previous utilization of this technology was the “Voice of Allah” broadcasting to retreating Iraqi Republican Guard forces in Gulf War I. As the “voice” entered into their craniums, the Iraqi troops stopped their vehicles, pulled out their prayer rugs and continued to bow down to the commands. Many of them were bulldozed alive into pre-dug pits, as they dutifully followed the dictates of the American special projects plane circling overhead.
In the U$$A, individuals have often been targeted by this nefarious technology. The most prominent cases as blathered by mass media have been quite possibly, a majority of the “crazy shooters” who unaccountably heeded a voice in their heads and took action against perceived threats. The FBI, through their Behavioral Analysis Unit in Quantico, Virginia, specializes in creating “criminals” by such nefarious means as psychotronic weaponry.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 30 2022 16:28 utc | 442
Now the real question is when will NATO back down and realise that going to war for Ukraine is not a winnable option?
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2022 16:33 utc | 443
@anon2020 336
Russia was previously providing limited assistance to the DPR and LPR, not legally able to deploy conscripts and sending only surplus equipment. They handicapped themselves, not wanting to ha the people pr infrastructure of Ukraine. With the ascension of the four regions to the Federation, aside from Russia’s ethical and pragmatic restraint to avoid collateral damage, this changes the shape of the operation completely. Trains loaded with troops, equipment and supplies are rolling into Ukraine, which has already exhausted it’s trained forces, equipment and supplies, drawers ned Europe Andrew f surplus equipment and no longer has a functioning logistical network. Russia has reserves of 25 million, and has not even needed to transition to a war economy and to devastate the Ukraine, eliminate NATO trained Ukrainian troops and take and hold over one-third of Ukraine. Even if all of NATO lined up with Ukraine, and they can’t (Ukraine has a very poor road system, a different rail gauge, no traction power and soft terrain in which equipment will get bogged if taken off paved surfaces), they would simply provide Russia with a denser target rich environment, they could field at most about 3.5 million trained (but fat and out of condition) troops. A 1 to 10 disadvantage, an opponent with a much better air defense system, missiles that cannot be stopped and an insurmountable artillery and munition advantage. Meaning that this war is going to be over much faster than anyone currently projects
My reading is that the Americans will continue to resist negotiations, and this, together with the larger demilitarized zone necessitated by the supply to Ukraine of longer range weapons systems, means that there will not be much left of Ukraine by the New Year.
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 16:35 utc | 444
Now the real question is when will NATO back down and realise that going to war for Ukraine is not a winnable option?
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2022 16:36 utc | 445
Fanto@446
Here in the U$$A, blackmail and bribery have long been used to keep pro$titicians “on message”. Presumably, Scholz was treated to one or the other of those two “options”.
The Zionist $tate, think Espstein and Maxwell, have long utilize blackmail as their most powerful weapon. With all that Rottenchild $$$ behind them, they can also resort to bribery if conditions merit that approach.
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 30 2022 16:42 utc | 446
Anybody else catch rhis…a Pseidon recon aircraft with torpedo lini g ul to drop its highly targetable load 1 hr before explosions?????
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6851&lat=54.393&lon=14.213&zoom=8.8&showTrace=2022-09-26×tamp=1664154207
Via telegram 21 cent wire
Posted by: Jo | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 447
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1575884019882827780?s=20&t=tDdx_FY_O9MQNV-MdNaDJw
NATO Chief: “While we support Ukraine’s right to choose its own path…a decision on membership has to be taken by all 30 allies…NATO is not a party to the conflict”
Posted by: crone | Sep 30 2022 16:44 utc | 448
@ Eighthman | Sep 30 2022 15:47 utc | 434
It’s been said before. But, your last paragraph is gold and explains again why Natzostan must escalate while Russia and China must resist the bait each time.
Posted by: dfg | Sep 30 2022 16:48 utc | 450
@b Please delete Hermit 451. It was so riddled with typographical errors that this is a replacement.
@anon2020 336
Russia was previously providing limited assistance to the DPR and LPR, not legally able to deploy conscripts and sending only surplus equipment. They handicapped themselves, not wanting to harm the people or infrastructure of Ukraine. With the ascension of the four regions to the Federation, aside from Russia’s ethical and pragmatic restraint to avoid collateral damage, this changes the shape of the operation completely. Trains loaded with troops, equipment and supplies are rolling into Ukraine, which has already exhausted it’s trained forces, equipment and supplies, drawn down Europe’s surplus equipment and no longer has a functioning logistical network. Russia has reserves of 25 million, and has not even needed to transition to a war economy to devastate the Ukraine, eliminate NATO trained Ukrainian troops but has taken and is holding over one-third of Ukraine. Even if all of NATO lined up with Ukraine, and they can’t (Ukraine has a very poor road system, a different rail gauge, no traction power and soft terrain in which equipment will get bogged if taken off paved surfaces), they would simply provide Russia with a denser target rich environment. NATO could field at most about 3.5 million trained (but fat and out of condition) troops. This would leave NATO at a 1 to 10 disadvantage against the an opponent with a much better air defense system, missiles that cannot be stopped and an insurmountable artillery and munition advantage. Meaning that this war is going to be over much faster than anyone currently projects.
My reading is that the Americans will continue to resist negotiations, and this, together with the larger demilitarized zone necessitated by the supply to Ukraine of longer range weapons systems, means that there will not be much left of Ukraine by the New Year
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 16:48 utc | 451
Posted by: crone | Sep 30 2022 16:44 utc | 455
They’re making fun of it in some Russian TG channels, “you do not marry a prostitute”, well except in Hollywood.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 16:49 utc | 452
@ 458 Hermit
You should have asked for this post to be deleted as well.
Honestly, I’m starting to think you guys do not have the faintest idea of the respective strengths of the prospective armies in this conflict, and even less of an idea about NATO forces.
Russia does not have reserves of 25 million. Not in a month of Sundays, and the idea that Russia could match US weapon and arms production is borderline delusional. I doubt Russia could match the Turkish MIC if it came to a shouting match.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 17:01 utc | 453
Is this the Ukraine thread or the troll thread ?
Does b have to make a third thread, just for troll talk ?
Or can we learn to not let ourselves be derailed so easily ?
Frankly, It’s embarrassing.
Posted by: Featherless | Sep 30 2022 17:02 utc | 454
@ 452 whirlX
NATO isn’t involved in the actual conflict. NATO supplies weapons, intelligence and logistics. Ukrainian forces do the fighting.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 17:05 utc | 455
@461 Featherless
You’re embarrassed? Think I how feel having to read some of this nonsense. I mean, the state of this
NATO could field at most about 3.5 million trained (but fat and out of condition) troops.
Clueless.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 17:09 utc | 456
Posted by: whirlX | Sep 30 2022 16:36 utc | 452
“when will NATO back down”
2014 Nuland – American neocon NATO – “Fuck The EU”
2022 Biden – Braindead President? “Bomb Germany”
NATO is bombing NATO
NATO is killing itself. It is committing suicide.
When attacked by your enemies, you fight back.
When attacked by your friends, you discontinue your relationship or commit murder.
The Americans have LOST IT – Big Time.
I used to really like and respect Americans. I have worked with some Brilliant Americans in The UK.
Not Now. They are trying to kill all of us in Europe.
They disgust me.
Tony
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 17:12 utc | 457
English Outsider@419:
Thanks for that link to the definitive words on the neocons and the rush to the Iraq War, written by Colonel Pat Lang.
I appreciate the collegial spirit in your post regarding the Colonel, who despite his current opinion of this Ukraine/Russia conflict, in my opinion, deserves a fairer hearing here considering his efforts in the past educating his readers regarding the neocons.
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 30 2022 17:29 utc | 458
Posted by: morongobill | Sep 30 2022 17:29 utc | 465
A broken clock is right twice a day. Once a spook always a spook, that deluded old man caused a lot of damage and desperation in Central America among many other places, the waters of the Motagua river ran red with blood, the crimes comitted in that poor country were terrifying and that guy was training, advising and arming the murderers.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 30 2022 17:37 utc | 459
This Tom UKR troll is probably hoping for a friday bonus from his bosses by posting tons of platitudes – well, let him keep yapping, the caravan moves on and millions of Russians “came home” today…
Posted by: Anthony | Sep 30 2022 17:40 utc | 460
One of the weapons used by the secret police agencies in the U$$A is PSYCHOTRONIC WEAPONRY. Low-frequency radio wave technology has long been developed by the Deep $tate, ….
Posted by: aristodemos | Sep 30 2022 16:28 utc | 449
I’m sceptical of stuff like that because there’s very little of a plausible physical mechanism to induce the perception of sound in humans using radio waves. As far as I can remember, the only mechanism is microwave heating (eww!).
It’s really not necessary to invoke exotic physics phenomena …. use global surveillance to identify susceptible individuals, use what you know about them to successfully approach them and gain their confidence, gradually radicalise them to whatever is the desired end.
If you haven’t already, I absolutely recommend watching the Safe and Sound episode of Electric Dreams, that’s very much how I see the sort of bomber / shooter radicalisation that is used by WestWorld psyop groups.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 30 2022 17:46 utc | 461
Assuming Biden, wasn’t stroking and sniffing her hair, and it was a real debate with Biden “””USA””” vs Truss (UK) truly Representing their Countries
What would be the Result?
Biden “Can I have a Blow Job Next”
Truss: Re the recent attempted demolition of the UK Pensions Industry, By Enormous American controlled Hedge Funds, also Massively shorting The Pound
Well The Bank of England, bought all the Shorts and Effectively Said Fuck Off America…
You Americans will have to buy them all back.
Nothing Like a Short Squeeze.
For more detailed analysis on this read John Ward The Slog, for the inside Goss, and his opposite number who I have massive respect for, I even used to do his competition..
” Bill Mitchell – Modern Monetary Theory”
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/
I would, I think she’s cute.
The Americans weren’t expecting that.
Tony
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 18:03 utc | 462
Posted by: Hermit | Sep 30 2022 16:35 utc | 451
I agree with your general assessment and with your point about Russia’s self-imposed limitations but I originally wrote off speculation of upcoming UA counterattacks on the grounds that RF missile forces could engage UA ground forces from stand-off range even before RF artillery got within range. RF has given up territory that it will have to recapture all over again, for the sake of not being able to detect and engage these UA counteroffensive forces.
Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 463
This is not, in my opinion, some complex diabolical plot on anyones side. For Russia the SMO is not going well, public opinion has dipped negatively with mobilisation. Russia would end it tomorrow with the four annexed territories, and the pipeline sabotage is just part of the pressure Russia is trying to exert to bring this about.
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 15:07 utc | 411
… but destroying the pipeline removes the pressure on the German government to accede to the people’s will and see to it that the pipeline is restarted. And it also removes the pressure that Russian competition brings on overpriced American LNG.
I understand you’re just trolling, though. Russia blew up a pipeline it’s been trying to sell in with the Euros for a decade, who could have thought.
Posted by: Tichy | Sep 30 2022 19:45 utc | 464
Sometimes there is nothing more that you can do, than be a fart in the wind. I am awaiting news. It’s not easy being born.
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 21:12 utc | 465
that is your mum, and that is your dad, your brothers are really nice, and they will love you to bits.
Posted by: tonyopmoc | Sep 30 2022 21:52 utc | 467
RE: Air superiority, even Newsweek back in March had to admit that Russia was intentionally minimizing civilian casualties, unlike how the US engages in war.
https://www.newsweek.com/putins-bombers-could-devastate-ukraine-hes-holding-back-heres-why-1690494
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 30 2022 22:13 utc | 468
To understand the Ukraine-Russia war you have to understand the second world war.
To understand the second world war you need to read this article:
http://preearth.net/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=1174
You need to know that Hitler was a double agent.
There is also an informative article on the COVID SCAM on the same page.
Posted by: Truth | Sep 30 2022 22:21 utc | 469
cirsium | Sep 30 2022 13:48 utc | 356
Steven Starr | Sep 30 2022 15:42 utc | 431
Putin 🔥:
https://t.me/denatofication/3538
Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 30 2022 23:40 utc | 470
I don’t know who blew up the NS pipelines, nor for what purpose; but I do know that those waters are some of the most closely watched in the world. If NATO doesn’t know who did it, and it wasn’t a NATO member gone rogue; then there’s either some wonderful special forces & technology involved or Russian partizans shoved a bomb though the pipes themselves. Russia, itself, isn’t a single political block either; as there’s definitely be some groups with something to gain from damaging those pipes. Furthermore, it doesn’t even have to be a nation-state; it could simply be a merc job funded by major energy companies looking to ship their own products into Germany at the highest possible profit.
As for myself, my money is on NATO knows who did it and how, and isn’t really saying.
Posted by: MoonShadow | Oct 1 2022 0:07 utc | 471
According to some telegram channels, there goes Lyman. Freaking sick to my stomach.
Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 0:48 utc | 472
@bottle 252
I agree with the capability, but they are running the hegemony on empty and into the ground. As with most unsustainable empires past their best-before date, the outlying regions are being stripped to keep the center tottering about like a vampire in the sun a little longer. The only thing exceeding the exorbitant cost of the US military is its utter incompetence. Speaking of the larcenous cost, the US military burns through over 50c of every dollar collected by Washington, resulting in a country hated by many, resented by all, falling apart at the seams and drowning in debt, public, commercial and private, with no conceivable exit before implosion.
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 1 2022 1:08 utc | 473
anon2020 | Sep 30 2022 18:21 utc | 470
In a recent video, Mercouris who’s area of expertise is law/internal law spoke of the technicalities of Russian law and military doctrine. It is largely based on defending their borders. He also said that at the start of the SMO the troops involved where on six month contracts which ended in August. Many of those would have chose to go back to civilian life rather than renew the contract.
I suspect planning for the referendum was begun before those contracts ended. I think the decision was made to use a light force and give ground at the north if required while keeping the rest of the front strong until these regions became Russian territory.
I thought the forces being assembled in the Belgorod and Rostov regions might go in as soon as Putin signed the documents but I have also read that has to be voted on by the Duma before becoming Russian law.
Lyman is the only large population center withing the new Russian regions that might need retaking but I suspect the Russian forces will hold that until the new phase kicks off. Izyum ect were in Kharkiv oblast.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 1:11 utc | 474
Jo | Sep 30 2022 16:43 utc | 454
Thanks for that link. There was also a Baltic sea air exercise by the Baltic states on the 26th and 27th. Air exercises over the sea would include anti submarine operations. The Brits were named as a participant but the US was not. Poseidons carry the winged version of the Mk 54 torpedo. Swedish seismologists calculated the blasts at 100 KG of TNT equivalent. The Mk 54 warhead has a TNT blast equivalent of 108kg
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 1:37 utc | 475
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 1:11 utc | 481
Lyman is the only large population center withing the new Russian regions that might need retaking but I suspect the Russian forces will hold that until the new phase kicks off. Izyum ect were in Kharkiv oblast.
My understanding is that Lyman is around 15 000 people and is currently largely deserted. Which raises the question: Why the obsession over it from the internet pundits ?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:26 utc | 476
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 17:09 utc | 463
You’re embarrassed? Think I how feel having to read some of this nonsense.
Think about how embarrassed at having to see your counter-logical counter-reasonable posts over and over again.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:33 utc | 477
Posted by: Tom UK | Sep 30 2022 17:01 utc | 460
Russia does not have reserves of 25 million. Not in a month of Sundays,
How do you know?
and the idea that Russia could match US weapon and arms production is borderline delusional.
They produce more, and superior weapons matched to their military doctrines and area operations relevant to the current war in Ukraine.
In the battle theater of Ukraine, Russia outproduces the US MIC in almost all areas of equipment matched to the Ukrainian, Russian environment.
We are constantly receiving reports of the US MIC running short of stocks, unable to produce orders within the near future requested by Ukraine.
Russia outproduces the US MIC in air defense systems and in hypersonic missiles. They match the US in production of nuclear missiles, producing more, more modern and technically superior equipment.
I doubt Russia could match the Turkish MIC if it came to a shouting match.
All the Turks are good for are glorified RC planes. They produce nothing on the scale or quality of Russian equipment.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:40 utc | 478
Posted by: Mushroom | Sep 30 2022 15:58 utc | 438
Do you mean by selling some gas they steal from the Palestinians to the EU in the future?
Yes, as well as Lebanese gas, which they’re currently trying to thieve and which Hezbollag has stated they’re willing to fight a war over.
This is nowhere near as massive as the US screwing its number one competitor in the huge car and commercial airliner markets IMO.
Without cheap enough energy it’ll soon be be bye bye Airbus and Boeing will regain monopoly.
Same with the other industrial fields where the EU is a major competitor to the US.
That is true. Still, it doesn’t change the fact that israel benefits hugely from this event. Whether they’re actually guilty of not, is another question. My systematic analysis some threads back show that the USA is logically, from all perspectives, the most likely perpetrator of the pipeline destruction.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:45 utc | 479
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 30 2022 11:52 utc | 304
Russia has air superiority over Krasny Liman:
High Skills Of Russian Pilots In Krasny Liman
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:48 utc | 480
Zelensky had ordered UAF to take Lyman without regard for losses. Human waves rush periodically defenders into machine guns like they did in WW1. They must be high on pervitin. Unbelievable if true, story of one of the wounded defenders.
‼️🇬🇧 Our wounded soldiers from Krasny Liman were evacuated to Valuiki. One of them said: “Oh * l, a crowd came out of the forest, about 30 people, stretched out in a chain and went at us, I started working with a machine gun on them and a grenade launcher from the AGS, everyone from our position started to fuck them. I saw how bullets hit people, they fall, but they keep going like crazy. Then, when many of them fell, those who remained began to run away. I don’t know how many we killed, but many of them fell. An hour later, another crowd came out of the same line, already under the cover of an infantry fighting vehicle. Our mortar began to work on them, and we also began to water them. They departed again. Then it flew over us, and I was wounded, I generally thought that they were stoned, because they were mowed down, but they were walking. ” Recent insiders from Zelensky’s office said that Ukrainian militants were ordered to “take Lyman regardless of losses” before signing an agreement on the entry of the liberated regions into the Russian Federation.
Posted by: unimperator | Oct 1 2022 6:18 utc | 481
The latest startling article from Pepe Escobar:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/10/no_author/who-profits-from-pipeline-terror/
The war has entered a surreal phase. It can only go downhill now the desperadoes are running it.
Posted by: Paul GV | Oct 1 2022 7:19 utc | 482
“How is it possible that the Western public opinion, media, universities, politicians, masses and intellectuals act so unanimously?
How is it possible that so many countries are so strictly controlled?
I think, Stalin could not have dreamed about this level of social control and brain washing.
How is this control implemented?
Posted by: marko | Sep 29 2022 18:36 utc | 3”
Here’s one reason.
The American Empire of Lies and its allies are massively infiltrating social media with bots that demonize Russia, China, and Iran–while promoting Pro-USA propaganda.
Bots are flooding social media with pro-US propaganda demonizing China, Russia & Iran, studies show
https://multipolarista.com/2022/09/20/bots-social-media-pro-us-propaganda/
Posted by: ak74 | Oct 1 2022 7:29 utc | 483
Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 5:26 utc | 483
Appears to be troll/ hand hand wringer/ sniveling into their tissues obsession. Russia sure isn’t worried.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 7:38 utc | 484
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 7:38 utc | 491
… Russia sure isn’t worried.
Right. Just found out the Russian garrison at Liman is only 500 men. We’ve been bamboozled en masse.
However, it seems the Ukrainians have been bamboozled far more than any judging by their human wave attacks on the town …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 1 2022 7:49 utc | 485
Perhaps it is time for Tom to change hands. He must surely have blisters by now.
Johnhelmer.net seems to be reasonably well informed, and at least provides the evidence he is relying on.
As for Lyman, a day is a very long time in a fight. Let’s wait and see. And, pray for any civilians caught up in the shitshow
Posted by: eagle eye | Oct 1 2022 9:35 utc | 486
Lies, lies and more PLUNDER!
—
Under the “UN Black Sea Grain Initiative” West and NATO
CRIMINALS are still plundering Ukraine-produced foodstuffs
under the UN-promoted pretext of “feeding the poor”.
————————————–
Latest summary of shipments, as of 29-Sep-2022:
LINK: https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements
(This list is updated every two to three days)
————————————–
_TONNAGE_ _PERCENT_
OECD,EU:_3,770,145 __69.5%
NATO: _3,465,664 __63.9%
Turkey: ___815,737 __15.0%
Other: _1,363,438 __25.1%
POOR: ___292,370 ___5.4%
—
TOTAL: _5.425,953 _100.0%
“UN Black Sea Grain Initiative” TEMPORARY agreement is bound
to expire today (01-Oct-2022), but the damage imposed to the
poor and hungry human beings by this CRIMINAL FRAUD is
disgraceful and inexcusable.
Posted by: LongCovid | Oct 1 2022 10:32 utc | 487
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Oct 1 2022 1:11 utc | 481
Agreed, all kinds of self-imposed restrictions on RF strategy, yet their initial forces were more than enough to defeat UA at the start of the conflict. The Axis powers have been true to their word of prolonging the fight at the expense of Ukrainians. Thing seem to be switching to a very different set of parameters now!
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2022 10:42 utc | 488
Thing seem to be switching to a very different set of parameters now!
Posted by: anon2020 | Oct 1 2022 10:42 utc | 495
Where is the new set?
Nothing has changed in their dumbo strategy. Run in circles, get a few nazi killed, retreat, run again, retreat some more. Liman will be evacuated these days, there is no way they can stay there with a few hundred against 20x more. When they were attacking , the lack of progress was explained by good defenses built in years. When they are in the same positions they lose them quickly. they’re not good anymore.
Marty from America calls it strategy and Liman a meaningless city, but strategy has a purpose. The nazi deaths in Liman aren’t big enough to cause any change. So why go there or try to keep it? Marty from America should be sent to beg Biden for a peace agreement before he exterminates the entire Donbass.
Posted by: rk | Oct 1 2022 11:08 utc | 489
@Arch Bungle 485
I decided not to respond to the troll, as the readily available counter-evidence is so easy to find that only his cognitive dissonance prevented him from confirming it for himself, while arguing the matter would only increase his unfounded certainty and doxastic closure.
While Russian and CIS reserve data is a state secret and so not published, Chopin, Konstantin (2009). Taras, Anatoliy (ed.). Вооружённые силы стран СНГ и Балтии. Справочник [Armed forces of CIS countries and Baltic states. Handbook] (in Russian). Moscow: Современная школа. ISBN 978-985-513-617-1 calculates the reserves (citizens with prior military training who would be called up in time of war which is also how this is defined by ) at 31 million. I adjusted this based on demographic change since the publication date.
In case of war, NATO would automatically have access to the reserves of its underlying members. Wikipedia enumerates this at
Member States of NATO at Wikipedia and provides supporting links.
When it comes to military production, the USA is the world leader by dollar value in military production, but you don’t get much bang for the buck. I’m not talking about expensive toys like the F35, the least effective, most limited and ludicrously expensive so-called 5th generation combat aircraft in history (which wants to kill its pilots, has challenges shooting and communicating, and falls apart if it is flown supersonically), but basic essentials like 155mm artillery shells. The U S has provided Ukraine with around 800,000 such shells to date, and is looking for suppliers able to deliver 12,000 shells a month (e.g. Peck Michael (2022-09-15). The US has given Ukraine nearly 1 million 155 mm artillery shells. Now it’s looking for US companies to build more of them. Business Insider). The Allied forces are firing four to five times that each a day in the Ukraine (e.g. Zaluzhny Valery cited in Ed (2022/08/16). Russians use 40-60,000 artillery shells every day — Commander in Chief. Euromaidsn Press.
Analysis of the Allied production capacity is complicated by the fact that there is no central reporting on capacity for the CIS but in an article by The Jamestown Foundation looking at just Russian and Belorussian capacity (without switching to wartime production) appears to be about double that (although costs would soar).
Posted by: Hermit | Oct 1 2022 11:17 utc | 490
According to the AZmilitary1 twitter channel, Lyman has fallen! Just pray for all those brave Russian troops that tried to hold the city despite all the odds and the innocent Russian speakers now under the control of Ukrainian Nazis. Putin has to remove the generals responsible for this fiasco and start cleaning house in the Russian Armed forces. Corruption or incompetence will cost Russia this war yet.
Posted by: Witness | Oct 1 2022 11:30 utc | 491
Posted by: Seneschal | Oct 2 2022 18:02 utc | 22
A gas pipeline is too expensive and is too often the victim of damage so that the issue has not been considered for decades that they have been built.
They are designed from the outset to be repairable in case of damage and the tools to do it quickly and well exist.
Someone has already answered this question extensively on Friday on a MoA thread by giving this link :
http://www.oedigital.com/news/482657-the-pipeline-repair-busters-being-ready-for-the-worst-case
In addition, Nord Stream 2 is 100% owned by Gazprom even though others financed its construction. It is also at least in the majority in Nord Stream 1.
So no one can touch it, even to repair it, without their permission. The “political will” must therefore be first and foremost on the Russian side.
Posted by: UncleTom | Oct 2 2022 18:53 utc | 493