Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 22, 2022

Ukraine Open Thread 2022-155

News & views related to the Ukraine conflict.

Please stick to the topic.

The current open thread for other issues is here.

Posted by b on September 22, 2022 at 10:34 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

Arch Bungle | Sep 23 2022 9:21 utc | 380

You have nt understood how this war is different – please consider this

Do not focus on the westies as per your list: there are always the rich who prey on their own and on other people

Look to the structural transformations being put in place by RF China SCO BRICS and so on – a paridigm in miniature can be seen in the war

Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 23 2022 11:17 utc | 401

NATO Secretary General Jens “Great Dane” Stoltenberg

Continue attacking the traitor Jens Stoltenberg for all the right reasons, but when you do, do it correctly: He is not Danish, he is Norwegian (unfortunately)

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 23 2022 5:31 utc | 349

Come on, man, the "Great Dane" handle is not about his nationality, it's about his hapless Scoobie Doo appearances and behavior.

Posted by: Poslan | Sep 23 2022 11:22 utc | 402

⚡️ Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine (September 23, 2022)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

💥 High-precision attack of Russian Aerospace Forces launched at the units of 81st Airmobile Brigade near Kramatorsk (Donetsk People's Republic) has resulted in the elimination of over 220 Ukrainian servicemen.

💥 Fire attack has been launched at the units of foreign mercenaries near Slavyansk and Ozyornoye (Donetsk People's Republic). The attack has resulted in the elimination of over 100 militants.

💥 Russian Aerospace Forces have launched high-precision attacks at the positions of Chayka tactical group near Zaporozhye, as well as at the provisional bases of Skif, Dnepr and Gepard nationalist battalions.

◽️ The attacks have resulted in the elimination of over 190 militants and 12 units of military equipment.

💥 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised the provisional bases of 59th Mechanised Infantry and 63rd Mechanised brigades near Bezymennoye and Ternoviye Pody (Nikolayev region). The enemy has lost over 130 servicemen.

◽️ The list of the neutralised targets includes 4 command posts: one of 14th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Dvurechnaya (Kharkov region), 9th Regiment of the National Guard near Primorskoye (Zaporozhye region), as well as the command and observation posts of 2nd and 3rd battalions from 65th Mechanised Brigade near Novoandreyevka and Verkhnyaya Tersa (Zaporozhye region).

◽️ 74 artillery units, 142 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas have been neutralised.

◽️ 3 missile, artillery armament and munitions depots have been destroyed near Zaporozhye, Monachinovka (Kharkov region) and Donetskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

◽️ 1 Ukrainian Buk-M1 self-propelled system has been destroyed near Nikiforovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

💥 Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces has shot down 1 Ukrainian MiG-29 airplane near Novosyolovka (Nikolayev region), as well as 2 Su-25 airplanes of Ukrainian Air Force near Vesyoloye (Kherson region) and Kamyshevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

💥 Russian air defence facilities have shot down 19 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Novaya Kakhovka, Tomarino, Novoraysk, Shlyakhovoye, Mirolyubovka, Belyayevka, Kreshchenovka, Bruskinskoye and Chkalovo (Kherson region), Lyubimovka (Zaporozhye region), Valeryanovka, Tripolye, Vladimirovka, Gornoye, Khartsyzsk, Novoaleksandrovka, Yevgenovka, Terny and Krasnaya Polyana (Donetsk People's Republic).

◽️ Air defence facilities have also destroyed in air 42 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by U.S.-manufactured HIMARS multiple rocket-launching system (MRLS), as well as by Olkha MRLS, near Plodovoye and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).

📊 In total, 298 airplanes and 155 helicopters, 2,054 unmanned aerial vehicles, 376 air defence missile systems, 5,077 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 844 combat vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,410 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 5,794 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

#MoD #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en

Posted by: Summary | Sep 23 2022 11:26 utc | 403

Posted by: Unnamed | Sep 23 2022 6:58 utc | 364

George Robertson was also NATO secgen, he was / is an astounding imbecile, and the subject of rumours that I will not repeat here; you can find them easily enough yourself.

Specifically on Stoltenberg, I’ve also noticed the very odd behaviour, mannerisms and speech you mention. I initially put it down to some kind of neuro-degenerative condition but Norwegian has previously posted interesting information about his immediate family.

My current assessment is that he’s borderline mentally retarded as a result of inbreeding but his aristocrat family has enough money to burnish his very limited substance and character so it can mostly fool the eye. The real story is that this sad aristo gimp was recognised by globalist schemers as a useful idiot who could be elevated to high office and easily controlled. It is almost a given to assume that he is also personally compromised, beyond simply being a moron.

oldhippy posted a fascinating account of Pierre DuPont in this very thread:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-open-thread-2022-155.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e1022d200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02a308e1022d200c

... Duponts are also known for being mentally ill and perverted. I am and have been involved in bike racing. When Pierre DuPont decided to become a major sponsor and player in US racing everyone was happy with deep pockets opened up in our general direction. And he was so evidently loony everyone figured he'd be led around by nose. As I remember it lasted two or three years. Pierre was having all the young juniors male and female out to the estate and diddling them. Basically admitted as much in court. Made no difference. He was a DuPont and droit du seigneur still applies. And diminished responsibility anyway because he is just nuts.

Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 22 2022 16:57 utc | 138

I do wonder at the potential similarities..

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 23 2022 11:32 utc | 404

Anthony | Sep 23 2022 10:08 utc | 389

Science doesn't give a fuck about your infantile Puritan myths and the pathetic moral narcsissm you call respectability, and neither should anyone else except to eradicate them.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S038800011400151X

A folk assumption about colloquial speech is that taboo words are used because speakers cannot find better words with which to express themselves: because speakers lack vocabulary. A competing possibility is that fluency is fluency regardless of subject matter—that there is no reason to propose a difference in lexicon size and ease of access for taboo as opposed to emotionally-neutral words. In order to test these hypotheses, we compared general verbal fluency via the Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT) with taboo word fluency and animal word fluency in spoken and written formats. Both formats produced positive correlations between COWAT fluency, animal fluency, and taboo word fluency, supporting the fluency-is-fluency hypothesis. In each study, a set of 10 taboo words accounted for 55–60% of all taboo word data. Expressives were generated at higher rates than slurs. There was little sex-related variability in taboo word generation, and, consistent with findings that do not show a sex difference in taboo lexicon size, no overall sex difference in taboo word generation was obtained. Taboo fluency was positively correlated with the Big Five personality traits neuroticism and openness and negatively correlated with agreeableness and conscientiousness. Overall the findings suggest that, with the exception of female-sex-related slurs, taboo expressives and general pejoratives comprise the core of the category of taboo words while slurs tend to occupy the periphery, and the ability to generate taboo language is not an index of overall language poverty.

Posted by: sippy the shot glass | Sep 23 2022 11:35 utc | 405

sippy the shot glass @406

People who believe that there are magic words that contain too much power to utter are generally not very bright. That's basically the opposite of the assumption that people who use taboo words are of limited intellect.

I'm not asserting that people who regularly use taboo words are necessarily smart, rather that people who have taboo words in the first place are pretty dumb. To see that in action just study up on the history of scientific terms like "moron", "idiot", "imbecile", and "retarded". One must be fucking retarded to be offended by the word "retarded" once its history as a descriptor for cognitive disability is understood.

Really, it all comes back to Philosophical Idealism, and the belief that one can change objective reality by changes what people think about that reality, and that you can change what people think about reality by changing the words they are permitted to use when discussing that reality. Utterly fucking retarded nonsense. Infantile narcissistic egotism to the max.

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 23 2022 12:00 utc | 406

... Macron is living in an alternate reality, like every other western "leader".

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 23 2022 10:45 utc | 396

Pepe Escobar called it “a vast simulacra bubble”. I get the impression that WestWorld’s “leaders” have less access to worthwhile information than regular internet users.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 23 2022 12:01 utc | 407

Geran-2 drones hit some targets in port of Odessa. There were several videos of them flying slowly, casually above towards their target and some UAF trying to shoot them down with machine guns.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 23 2022 12:11 utc | 408

ALARMING NEWS -- Summary data from the UN "Black Sea Grain Inititaive":
>> OECD, EU, NATO are HOARDING foodstuffs that UN promised to deliver to the POOR! <<

---
LINK: UN "Black Sea Grain Inititaive"
"As of 21 September 2022, 185 voyages from Ukrainian ports have carried
4,248,079 metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs."(*)
---

-
STATISTICS by "LongCovid"
-
TONNAGE PERCENT
[1] OECD, EU 2.897.007 68,2%
[2] NATO 2.652.526 62,4%
[3] OTHER 973.221 22,9%
[4] Turkey 661.359 15,6%
[5] POOR 377.851 8,9%
---------------
T O T A L 4248079 100,0%
(*) Info from UN "Black Sea Grain Initiative" is updated
approx. once/twice a week; the LINK always points to the NEWEST data.
All following lists are sorted by TONNAGE, decreasing.

[1] OECD and/or EU:
--
Spain(!), Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Romania, Republic of Korea, Israel, France, Greece, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, Bulgaria

[2] NATO:
--
Spain(!), Turkey, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Romania, France, Greece, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, Bulgaria

[3] All OTHER countries excluding POOR (see [5]):
---
China, Egypt, Iran, India, Malaysia and China(?), Tunisia

[4]
Turkey (Turkey) is a member of BOTH OECD and NATO.

[5] POOR countries**:
---
Bangladesh, Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, Yemen, Somalia, Lebanon, Libya

(**) This list is my own estimate; I don't know if there is any official list.

SORRY for shitty display, someone is eating spaces and tabs! >(;)--(

Posted by: LongCovid | Sep 23 2022 12:18 utc | 409

Just came from Ireland.
The people there trust MSM and USA narrative so pathetically.
They complain about the inflation but they strongly believe that EU is going to settle everything and that "everything will be soon as before"

Posted by: Marko | Sep 23 2022 12:18 utc | 410

@My previous post: Number delimiters are as used in Eastern Europe!!

Posted by: LongCovid | Sep 23 2022 12:20 utc | 411

@INDY, GazProm Germania makes no such claims but if you provide a source I can try to help clear up the misunderstanding

Posted by: Yenwoda | Sep 23 2022 13:01 utc | 412

Take *that* Putin: //
(The yapping chihuahuas are yelping. )

https://t.me/azmilitary11/21753
Bakery owners in Poland complain about the crazy increase in energy bills: in August, prices increased by 947% compared to March .
Entrepreneurs face bankruptcy or bread for 12 zlotys (2.61 EUR), said Hanna Moisyuk, chairman of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin.
Many bakers and confectioners talk not only about astronomical gas and electricity bills, but also about the slow outflow of customers who now treat coffee and cakes as a luxury.
Others also complain that due to the constant price hikes, it is impossible to make any plans even for a month or two ahead.
A baker from Szczecin, Andrzej Wojciechowski, received bills 1000% higher in the spring than in 2021.
He changed his energy supplier, but still has to pay huge obligations in installments. The man calls the situation hopeless.
Recognition of the industry as subject to protection could remedy the situation, which would help reduce energy costs, and compensation could be claimed.
There are already only nine artisan bakeries left in Szczecin.
The Northern Chamber of Commerce has asked the government to immediately support the companies of the bakery and confectionery industry. There has been no response yet.
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/piekarnie-w-desperacji-chleb-po-12-zl-albo-plajta/39sbyvw
Business Insider Polska

Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 23 2022 13:27 utc | 413

Imho USUKIS are hoarding grain for use case political blackmail.Theyvate lying through their teeth by declaring it as cattle feed. This is purely to disguise the comprehensiveness of their intention to defeat Russia, by blackmailing p countries that need the grain to disown Russia in the UN etc.

...

Posted by: Giyane | Sep 23 2022 3:40 utc | 320
+Posted by: LongCovid | Sep 23 2022 12:18 utc | 410

Very interesting. Someone posted an observation of western framers (Canadian?) being subsidised to build grain storage silos on their own land, possibly for hoarding capacity ... I can’t find the comment now, is there a delay in the search box indexing new comments?

In any case, this idea of hoarding as a blackmail tool seems very prescient to me ... the structure of US agro-tech and the historical US strategy of destroying food independence everywhere it can means we should be surprised if food blackmail isn’t the motive.

Posted by: anon2020 | Sep 23 2022 15:20 utc | 414

JustAnotherAussie @351--

Thanks very much for your reply. Since you've been following me for awhile, you'll know that I declared our situation the Hybrid Third World War almost two years ago and certainly share your hope that it will not go beyond Hybrid.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 23 2022 15:25 utc | 415

Melaleuca @414--

Thanks for that report. How did that French revolt in 1789 begin again? Outrageously high prices for basic bread, not croissants. And it's very difficult to turn a gas-fired oven into one that burns wood or coal. Lucky for Poland that pizza isn't a mainstay like within the Outlaw US Empire.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 23 2022 15:36 utc | 416

Take a look at the UNGA photo of Blinken with the two ladies behind him. The large unhappy white lady is what Nuland looks like these days. That may be the most powerful player on stage at this moment.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 23 2022 9:41 utc | 383


She can be seen at ~ 8:40 in this editorial by Tucker Carlson, posted at the Duran, here:

https://theduran.com/tucker-carlson-admission-from-america-this-war-is-bidens-wish-video/

Posted by: suzan | Sep 23 2022 15:44 utc | 417


Posted by: Melaleuca | Sep 23 2022 11:07 utc | 400
Peter AU1, Don Bacon...

JC | Sep 23 2022 4:51 utc | 335
“……there were many leaders killed or murdered... can't remember their names now

Thanks a million... Melaleuca my last lag of a long journey.. Can’t walk or spell properly.. even with the build in spellers... Eudora email client.

Yes.. Givi, Motorola, especially "handsome boyish looking play boy" Zakharchenko was murdered.. had the present regimes-change aka NATO followed these men closely from inception - 2014... they would have known why so many ppl still believes in Putin and Xi Jinping

Here YT snip from Jerry Grey an Ozzie now settled in China. Pls reads the comments especially the comments, shows you even previous anti CPC overseas Chinese like me had changed.... wished I had chosen China for my kid’s education and settled in Chengdu or probably Shanghai or Nanjing... enjoy

How China changed my perceptions of it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x8FhkQmtpc

PS: If you are able... must make a trip to Beijing or Xinjiang... especially ppl from downunder..


Posted by: JC | Sep 23 2022 17:39 utc | 418

Worth remembering the Azovstal surrender was negotiated. Ukrainian sappers helped demine the area and defused booby traps. It's possible the eventual exchange of prisoners was always a part of the deal.

50 Russian soldiers returned - a relief to 50 families and a reassurance to many more families touched by mobilisation. The Kremlin will look out for you.

Medvedchuk - interesting character. Western Ukrainian man born in Siberian gulag to Banderite father. Believes in a non-toxic Ukrainian nationalism; also wealthy. He is the kind of guy who may be useful in post-war reconstruction and reconciliation.

It may seem unpleasant but it is the reality of the multipolar world. The days of thundering hegemonic justice are over. Different poles have their own interests and there are accomodations and concessions on all sides. Although we might prefer otherwise Turkey, US/UK, Saudi Arabia are poles in the new world.

Posted by: Browser | Sep 23 2022 21:40 utc | 419

fye - lol

From Russia with Love


https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/1572588487416909824
Nina 🐙 Byzantina @NinaByzantina

It appears that Twitch blocked a Russian channel that was trolling by streaming video of a gas stove (ie cheap energy) running 24/7. 🤭

AND later

The gas-stove Twitch stream was blocked due to violent content, which was not the case. So the author is back with showing cheap gas so that the Europeans could live vicariously through it. The running-water-and-rubber-duckies stream still seems banned.😅


Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 23 2022 23:33 utc | 420

Interesting.

I assign zero credibility to any footage supplied by country 404.

Due to the thirteen fake dead fairies of "Snake Island". Along with the video game footage of "Ghost of Kiev".

Two strikes!

Back to the footage of the alleged drone in question. The video supplied in the "Geran 2 drone dive in Odessa". Shows an intensive edit cut at 20 seconds. It is amazing how many flaws in a video one can find at one frame per second.

Strike three!

The stench of country 404/troll propaganda is very strong here!

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 24 2022 2:50 utc | 421

Guys, the Azov Nazis were *NOT* released or freed. They are being moved to Turkey and they will be confined in an internment camp by the Turks until the end of the war, after which they will be handed over to the Ukraine government.

There is a very high likelyhood that by 2023 when this war is over, there is no government of Ukraine and that Turkey will simply hand over these Nazis to Russia, because Russia will have occupied and annexed all of Ukraine. Remember, Erdogan is buddies with Putin.

Another possibility is that a rump Ukraine exists, but the Zelensky regime is gone and a pro-Russian puppet government rules the rump Ukraine.

At any rate, getting 50 Russian boys back and one pro-Russian politician back is well worth 100 Azov Nazis getting interned in Turkey, most likely to be given back to Russia in a year or two.

Posted by: Knov | Sep 24 2022 3:10 utc | 422

Geran-2 drones hit some targets in port of Odessa.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 23 2022 12:11 utc | 409

You have been trolled.

There exists a keyword in the title. No self-respecting Ukraine language speaker would make.

Like all other Youtube videos on the subject "Geran 2" too. At this point in time. Just a motley collection of Iranian official videos
cut and remixed.

Trolls will grasp at straws to dupe the fools.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 24 2022 3:51 utc | 423

Rumors of a coup in China against Xi Jinping shake the networks
by Alan Saucier

This Friday rumors gained strength about the alleged arrest of President Xi Jinping after a coup in China. The versions could not be confirmed so far, but they were not denied by Beijing either. However, sources from the Argentine embassy in China categorically denied them.

On the other hand, the cancellation of 60 percent of the flights in the Asian power, as reported by the local travel platform Flight Master, increased the noise surrounding Xi’s alleged arrest.

One of the versions that have circulated in recent hours indicates that the plot would have been organized by special forces of the People’s Liberation Army that respond to General Li Qiaoming, in charge of the Northern Theater Command, one of the five of the Chinese Army, since September 2017 until this month. Li had been appointed a member of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October 2017.
SOURCE
https://chinamovie.space/rumors-of-a-coup-in-china-against-xi-jinping-shake-the-networks/

OT and as yet unsubstantiated. Source gives further details of military involvement and possible motive. Xi was apparently seeking an unprecedented 3rd term.

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 24 2022 4:13 utc | 424

Further details regarding possible motives for coup.

https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/xi-jinping-against-security-agency-enemies

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 24 2022 4:19 utc | 425

fyi

I like Medvedev these last few months :):):):)


https://t.me/intelslava/37684

"Retired idiots with general's stripes do not need to scare us with talk about a NATO strike on Crimea," Dmitry Medvedev said.

This is how the deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation reacted to the statement of the former commander of the US army in Europe, Ben Hodges, who said that the US could deliver a "crushing blow" to the Black Sea Fleet and Russian bases in Crimea.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 24 2022 5:09 utc | 426

fyi

the arrogance of the Baltic states and their leaders nearly surpasses that of the UK - what a Western world of wankers!
asb military news is quite correct, Russia and its leadership have shown amazing patience the past two decades+ with all the western i.e. NATO encroachment and antagonisms


https://t.me/asbmil/5583
ASB Military News

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called on the people of the country to prepare for possible problems with electricity supply in the event that Russia disconnects Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from its energy system.

Imagine talking smack about Russia on a daily basis, destroy all the monuments, leading the world in racist anti-Russian policies .. but being dependent on Russian energy 😂 Russia’s patience is unmatched. The Baltic villages should’ve been cut off a long time ago.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 24 2022 5:36 utc | 427

@michael72

I really like the new Medvedev, since he’s been re-assigned. That’s gotta win him some points with a certain part of the population.

Did you like his future Ukraine map ? All that’s left is the Kiev oblast, with a tiny flag in the middle.

Re: Baltic retards

Russian leadership realize that it’s the Baltic Leadership that is the problem, even if many of the people are retarded too, but they don’t hold it against the People. This also looks good on the World Stage.

Posted by: Featherless | Sep 24 2022 5:53 utc | 428

There was also another Ukr attempt to penetrate Russian lines North of Kupanjsk with a large force consisting of about 2000 men with armour.

They were attacked by Russian Artillery and aircraft after which they withdrew with losses. The Russians claim, that the Ukr have suffered more losses on the Oskol River - Liman front in recent days than during the whole Kharkov offensive

The Ukr also shelled Shealevo across the border in Russia from where supplies for the Rus grouping on the Oskol come

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/9028

And this could be one of the quieter parts of the front.

Posted by: unimperator | Sep 24 2022 7:04 utc | 429

JC @ 312
Pity Russia and Belarus were mincemeat... every nation including Americunts, UK, Ghana, Kenya and India, Brazil... Only China stood by Russia.

Did we watch the same video? It sounded like the UN Security Council was on trial for their partisanship, their inability to negotiate, and their inability to solve the obvious crisis before it happened.

Excluding, of course, the usual Anglo American Death Cult partisans.

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 24 2022 13:23 utc | 430

re Featherless | Sep 24 2022 5:53 utc | 428

I don't know about Medvedev's future map of the Ukraine, seems awfully harsh.

Especially with Poland gobbling up so much and....... How would that assure the demilitarization and de-nazification of the whole country if those other nato goons just take their share?
Russia may not like that, so I am not sure how this will all go after they liberate Odessa and the full coast of the Black Sea. to use the right proverb, Time will tell.

30-40% or more of those Baltic states are russian speakers, are they not? which I am pretty sure is why Russia has been so patient and in no hurry to turn off the lights.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 24 2022 14:45 utc | 431

Nice descriptions from Doctorow following the referenda and increased mobilization announcements. Forgive if posted earlier, haven't read all comments on this thread:

https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/22/from-special-military-operation-to-open-war/

He lives part-time in Russia and watches Russian TV shows from which he gleans what the RF gov wants the RF citizenry to know and from there forms his opinions. From this piece it appears that RF has gone from being quite reserved to soon quite determined and aggressive. We shall soon see.


It is a foregone conclusion that the Donbas republics and other territories of Ukraine now under Russian occupation will vote to join the Russian Federation. In the case of Donetsk and Lugansk, it was only under pressure from Moscow that their 2014 referendums were about declaring sovereignty and not about becoming part of Russia. Such annexation or merger was not welcomed by the Kremlin back then because Russia was not ready to face the expected massive economic, political and military attack from the West which would have followed. Today, Moscow is more than ready: indeed it has survived very well all the economic sanctions imposed by the West from even before 24 February as well as the ever growing supply to Ukraine of military materiel and ‘advisers’ from the NATO countries.

The vote over joining Russia will likely hit 90% or more in favor. What will immediately follow on the Russian side is also perfectly clear: within hours of the declaration of referendum results, the Russian State Duma will pass a bill on ‘reunification’ of these territories with Russia and within a day or so, it will be approved by the upper chamber of parliament and immediately thereafter the bill will be signed into law by President Putin.

Looking past his service as a KGB intelligence operative, which is all that Western “Russia specialists” go on about endlessly in their articles and books, let us also remember Vladimir Putin’s law degree. As President, he has systematically stayed within domestic and international law. He will do so now. Unlike his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin has not ruled by presidential decree; he has ruled by laws promulgated by a bicameral parliament constituted from several parties. He has ruled in keeping with international law promulgated by the United Nations. UN law speaks for the sanctity of territorial integrity of Member States; but UN law also speaks of the sanctity of self-determination of peoples.

What follows from the formal merger of these territories with Russia? That is also perfectly clear. As integral parts of Russia, any attack on them, and there certainly will be such attacks coming from the Ukrainian armed forces, is a casus belli. But even before that, the referendums have been preceded by the announcement of mobilization, which points directly to what Russia will do further if developments on the field of battle so requires. Progressive phases of mobilization will be justified to the Russian public as necessary to defend the borders of the Russian Federation from attack by NATO.

The merger of the Russia-occupied Ukrainian territories with the Russian Federation will mark the end of the ‘special military operation.’ An SMO is not something you conduct on your own territory, as panelists on the Evening with Vladimir Solovyov talk show remarked a couple of days ago. It marks the beginning of open war on Ukraine with the objective of the enemy’s unconditional capitulation. This will likely entail the removal of the civil and military leadership and, very likely, the dismemberment of Ukraine. After all, the Kremlin warned more than a year ago that the US-dictated course of NATO membership for Ukraine will result in its loss of statehood. However, these particular objectives were not declared up to now; the SMO was about defending the Donbas against genocide and about de-nazification of Ukraine, itself a rather vague concept.

Adding another 300,000 men at arms to the force deployed by Russia in Ukraine represents a near doubling and surely will address the shortages of infantry numbers that has limited Russia’s ability to ‘conquer’ Ukraine. It was precisely lack of boots on the ground that explains Russia’s painful and embarrassing withdrawal from the Kharkov region in the past two weeks. They could not resist the massive concentration of Ukrainian forces against their own thinly guarded hold on the region. The strategic value of the Ukrainian win is questionable, but it greatly enhanced their morale, which is a major factor in the outcome of any war. The Kremlin could not ignore this.

At the press conference in Samarkand last week following the end of the annual gathering of heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Vladimir Putin was asked why he has shown so much restraint in the face of the Ukrainian counter offensive. He replied that the Russian attacks on Ukrainian electricity generating plants which followed the loss of the Kharkov territory were just ‘warning shots’ and there would be much more ‘impactful’ action to come. Accordingly, as Russia moves from SMO to open war, we may expect massive destruction of Ukrainian civil as well as military infrastructure to fully block all movement of Western supplied arms from points of delivery in the Lvov region and other borders to the front lines. We may eventually expect bombing and destruction of Ukraine’s centers of decision-making in Kiev.

As for further Western intervention, Western media have picked up on President Putin’s thinly veiled nuclear threat to potential co-belligerents. Russia has explicitly stated that any aggression against its own security and territorial integrity, such as has been raised by generals in retirement in the USA speaking to national television in the past several weeks about Russia’s break-up, will be met by a nuclear response. When Russia’s nuclear threat is directed at Washington, as is now the case, rather than at Kiev or Brussels, the supposition till now, it is unlikely that policy makers on Capitol Hill will long remain cavalier about Russian military capabilities and pursue further escalation.

In light of all these developments, I am compelled to revise my appreciation of what transpired at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. Western media have focused full attention on only one issue: the supposed friction between Russia and its main global friends, India and China, over its war in Ukraine. That seemed to me to be grossly exaggerated. Now it appears to be utter nonsense. It is inconceivable that Putin did not discuss with Xi and Modi what he is about to do in Ukraine. If Russia indeed now supplies to its war effort a far greater part of its military potential, then it is entirely reasonable to expect the war to end with Russian victory by 31 December of this year as the Kremlin appears to have pledged to its loyal supporters.

Looking beyond Ukraine’s possible loss of statehood, a Russian victory will mean more than an Afghanistan-like bloody nose for Washington. It will expose the low value of the U.S. military umbrella for EU member states and will necessarily lead to re-evaluation of Europe’s security architecture, which is what the Russians were demanding before their incursion into Ukraine was launched in February.

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2022

Posted by: Scorpion | Sep 24 2022 22:31 utc | 432

Perhaps a clueless person was trying to tell us all a very sad tale from the state of Texas.

* One of the wastes of large volumes of toxic long-term groundwater polluting fossil diesel fuel. By all Gas-frackers!+
* One of greed for profits customers are always last!
* An isolated from the national grid. An aged undermaintained electrical distribution system!
* One of overselling!
* Lack of maintenance, and gas storage facilities!
* Lack of boost gas pump stations to service high volume users!
* Leaky methane carbon pollution gas pipelines, and production terminals!
* Lack of strong regulations to protect the end users!
* Climate change adverse weather conditions!
* Elected Republican people's representatives protect the oil and gas fracking industries and not the people! A nice evil conflict of interest.
* One of paid political science trash hack shill writers. To sell the usual GOP "Standard Operating Procedure of Denial(SOP)"! Of blaming the other guy for their own "stupid is as stupid does behavior"!
Greed is good. -Gordon Gecko

Mix all of the factors together. The end result is "The Great Texas Winter Energy Crisis of 2021". A tale of a preventable tragedy. Caused by a complete lack of future "What If" disaster planning.

Lest we forget. In the Union of the Soviet States of AmeriKa. Or the greatest prison state in the world. The entire country relies on cheap diesel fuel to transport people, goods, and food! To feed the nation's rich and poor alike.
+ The USSA's national "Great Diesel Fuel Shortage Crisis of 2022".

Very tragic tale indeed.

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 25 2022 0:50 utc | 433

oops wrong thread

Posted by: Bad Deal Motors On | Sep 25 2022 1:00 utc | 434

Posted by: circumspect | Sep 24 2022 13:23 utc | 430

..Did we watch the same video?.. Maybe yes maybe NO.. There were more than four vids scattered in YT... Watched Spudnik, CGTN, XinHua News and Global Times.. On the whole China had confirmed she will back Putin China's friendship has ‘no limits’

Everyone knows after Putin it will be Xin Jinping... During Biden or Dem. regime it is Russia, Russia... China, China.... and Republican Administration it will be only Russia.

China's friendship has ‘no limits’ China, China... I'm a Hawk against Democratic and Republican party...

To better understands my feeling a vid from an Ozzie... Jerry Grey... he posted how he feel about China CPC and the Genocide.... please read the comments... comments... most comment from Overseas Chines... and I'm an Overseas Chinese...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x8FhkQmtpc


Posted by: JC | Sep 25 2022 1:03 utc | 435

@Scorpion | Sep 24 2022 22:31 utc | 432
This is a war, not a debating society. Gilbert Doctorow holds a Ph.D. in Russian history from Columbia University and knows nothing about military matters.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Sep 25 2022 1:32 utc | 436

« previous page

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Working...