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September 2, 2022
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-143
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Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine
as of September 2, 2022
The Kyiv regime continues unsuccessful attempts to gain a foothold in certain areas in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction.
Aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery inflict significant losses on units and reserves of Ukrainian troops. In just a day of hostilities in this direction, the enemy lost 13 tanks, 19 infantry fighting vehicles, 12 other armored combat vehicles, 11 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 330 military personnel. Two militants were taken prisoner.
▪️Two Ukrainian Su-25 attack aircraft and one MiG-29 fighter, converted to use American HARM anti-location missiles, were shot down near the village of ANDREEVKA, Kherson region.
▪️High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit during the day: the temporary deployment point of the 17th tank brigade in the area of the settlement of BEREZNEGOVATOE, as well as hangars with weapons and military equipment of the 46th airmobile brigade in the BELAYA KRYNITSA area of the Nikolaev region. More than 40 Ukrainian servicemen and up to 10 units of military equipment were destroyed.
▪️In addition, to the east of the settlement MIKHAILOVKA of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the command staff of the 56th motorized infantry brigade was destroyed. As a result of a high-precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces on the command post, 18 servicemen were eliminated, including 12 officers, and another 31 servicemen were wounded.
▪️Due to heavy losses, the personnel of the units of the 110th mechanized brigade, who occupied positions in the areas of the settlements of AVDEEVKA and EXPERIMENTAL of the Donetsk People’s Republic, refused to perform combat missions and left their positions.
▪️Concentrated fire strikes on the combat positions of the 60th Infantry Brigade in the area of the settlements of DOBRYANKA and NOVOVORONTSOVKA in the Kherson region killed more than 30 and wounded up to 15 nationalists.
🔻The strikes by operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery on military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue.
▪️During the day, the following were hit: a platoon of multiple launch rocket systems “Alder” in the area of the settlement of NOVOMARIEVKA, Mykolaiv region, eight command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Dachnoye, Kharkiv region, ALEKSANDROVKA, ARTYOMOVSK and KONSTANTINOVKA of the Donetsk People’s Republic, UPPER TERSA, Zaporozhye region, BELAYA KRYNITSA, GREAT ARTAKOVO and Bashtanka of Mykolaiv region, as well as 42 artillery units, manpower and Ukrainian military equipment in 134 districts.
▪️Destroyed: six warehouses of rocket and artillery weapons in the areas of the settlements of KHARKOV, TSIRKUNY and ANDREEVKA of the Kharkov region, SEVERSK, SOLEDAR of the Donetsk People’s Republic and DOBROE of the Nikolaev region. A launcher of the Buk-M1 anti-aircraft missile system was destroyed near the settlement of VOSKRESENK in the Donetsk People’s Republic.
▪️Russian air defense systems shot down 12 unmanned aerial vehicles per day in the areas of the settlements of YAKOVENKOVO, BORSCHEVKA, Kharkiv region, BLAGODATE, STYLA and VALERYANOVKA of the Donetsk People’s Republic, NESTERYANKA, KOPANI, Zaporozhye region, as well as ZELENY GAI, Kherson region.
▪️A US-made HARM anti-radar missile was shot down near NOVAYA KAKHOVKA, Kherson region. In addition, 14 shells of the American HIMARS multiple launch rocket system were intercepted in the areas of the settlements of STYLA of the Donetsk People’s Republic, KHERSON, BERISLAV and NOVAYA KAKHOVKA, Kherson region.
▪️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 283 aircraft, 151 helicopters, 1864 unmanned aerial vehicles, 372 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4711 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 823 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3364 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5217 units of special military vehicles.
Posted by: Summary | Sep 2 2022 15:11 utc | 1
when I search for “Ukraine’s annexation of Crimea in the 1990’s” all i get back in results has to do with “Russian annexation of Ukraine in 2014”. hmmm.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 2 2022 15:13 utc | 2
I am waiting now to hear whether the EU and the G7 will try to impose a price cap on Russian oil and gas. They are so blinded by hatred that they probably will.
Idiots. By my calculations that will leave Finland USA most EU countries except Hungary and Serbia without either and Nordstream 1 will be closed off.
It will be a catastrophic decision and I strongly suspect Russia is unlikely to reverse it ever. Latvia Estonia and Lithuania deserve everything that is coming to them as a consequence of it. High time Russia blockaded them.
It looks to me as though Russia are now comprehensively dismantling the UAF and there can’t be much combat ability left in it.
Ze isn’t just becomingly increasingly deranged he is also in advanced paranoia mode and extreme narcissm. He is a very dangerous loose cannon with no opposition or media to challenge or denounce him.
It is now down the Ukranian people to move to end this thoroughly evil Nazi regime. IMHO Zelensky is beginning to sound and act a lot like Hitler and I don’t say that lightly. Just give the man a moustache hackboots and the appropriate trousers and you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference.
Posted by: Jo Dominich | Sep 2 2022 15:14 utc | 3
I think a serious problem must be confronted concerning “victory” by either side. It’s too similar to the US Civil War in that victory by the North had to be total or nearly so while the Confederacy merely needed to survive. Unfortunately, this is how Ukraine could still “win”. They set up defenses in Kharkiv ( Military Summary warns about this) and in Odessa and just hold the line. So, refusing to negotiate might make sense if it results in Russia getting stuck in stalemate. Not getting to Transnistria would look bad.
OTOH, maybe there are other factors regarding winter, economic collapse, a Zelensky coup or other external factors – but then we would have to hypothesize that big cities would somehow negotiate with Russia rather than fight to the last Ukr. I’d like to hear contrary scenarios…..
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 15:19 utc | 4
The Ukrainian attack on the NPP was actually a major operation. It was a huge disaster for the Ukrainian military. Yet, the western MSM is silent. This is full spectrum dominance of information distribution. A bigger war is coming.
Posted by: Leroy | Sep 2 2022 15:21 utc | 5
Gazprom pays Ukraine a billion US$ per year in gas transit fees.
The European Union wants to cut its dependency on Russian gas, and stop all Russian gas imports by 2030.
Where is Ukraine going to get the money when the EU no longer buys Russian gas? I mean, no-one is thinking Europe is going to replace Russia as Ukraine’s sugar daddy?
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 2 2022 15:25 utc | 6
@ pretzelattack | Sep 2 2022 15:13 utc | 2
the algorithms don’t want you to see what you are looking for… i am sorry i can’t help you find that either..
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/6953
“Total Ukrainian losses during a counterattack on Kherson and landing on Energodar from 29 August to 1 September” see link above..
Posted by: james | Sep 2 2022 15:33 utc | 7
Posted by: james | Sep 2 2022 15:33 utc | 8
yeah, that’s what I figure, too.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 2 2022 15:37 utc | 8
@pretzelattack | Sep 2 2022 15:13 utc | 2
You can’t search that on gugl. Try yandex
Posted by: rk | Sep 2 2022 15:37 utc | 9
Leroy | Sep 2 2022 15:21 utc | 5
I can confirm the silence. I checked the radio news the whole day in Germany. Nothing about it. In the evening one ZDF (public German television platform) mentioned in the Internet with one sentence that some grenade actions could be heard in the moment. That was all. And that is quite incredible. Even I am shocked! 😉 As until yesterday frankly I cound not have imagined such a thing.
Posted by: Hausmeister | Sep 2 2022 15:38 utc | 10
@Eighthman #4
There is no part of your comment that is accurate.
Russia does not need to take all of Ukraine; it only needs to take that where the Russian-speaking Ukrainian population is the majority.
Nor is your assertion about Ukrainian defenses in Kharkiv or wherever the least bit credible. The lines facing the Donetsk and Luhansk breakaway republics were fortified for literally 8 years – and they’re almost completely taken now.
The possibility that Ukraine can build defenses comparable or superior to those, in a few months, is risible.
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 2 2022 15:41 utc | 11
Jo Dominich no. 3
They just have:
“G7 agree to impose price cap on Russian oil”
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven advanced nations have agreed they will “urgently” move towards imposing a price cap on Russian oil imports, aimed at stopping Moscow from raking in huge profits from soaring energy prices.(the guardian)
(Agree or move towards?)
Posted by: ThusspakeZarathustra | Sep 2 2022 15:43 utc | 12
reply to 12
They never needed to take all of Ukraine. Just the coasts and Donbass. Military Summary says Ukraine is piling up big tank numbers underground in Kharkiv – in old Soviet facilities that could withstand a nuke. It may be that Russia will have a big advantage in winter but that needs further explanation.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 15:48 utc | 13
Eighthman@14…the underground structures are from Soviet era so someone in Moscow has the blueprints.
Target ventilation systems, power supply substations, and then blow all egress in and out. Ukie will get out, just won’t be fast.
Cheers M
Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Sep 2 2022 15:56 utc | 14
First Kinzhal used in Ukr destroyed a nuclear bunker completely. But I doubt they’ll attack Kharkov or Odessa directly. They don’t even have enough soldiers at this moment.
There are reports that multiple FAB-500 were dropped today. And an Ukr general said on TV there are “hundreds of thousands” dead in total.
Posted by: rk | Sep 2 2022 16:01 utc | 15
Reply to 14:
there is a pretty scary analysis of the occupied territories in a video by an Austrian army expert. The video is great information for many reasons – Colonel Markus Reisner believes accurate information should be the basis for all decision making. Make sure to watch to the end, there is an important point that is missing in most of the articles on the war (or read the comments).
The interesting information is that while Russia “only” occupies 20 % of the territory of the Ukraine, 80 % of the value Ukraine creates are created on those 20 %, where most of the natural resources, the industry and the fertile soil for wheat production is located. The number goes up to 95 % should Russia capture Odessa as well.
https://youtu.be/dEbLuAPobao?list=PL6Udnt8OH5-tuFBuYigic6mYE6_TfCqV7&t=850 (starting at around 14.00).
Posted by: Marvin | Sep 2 2022 16:03 utc | 16
@ Paul, copying over my q from other thread
Do you think it’s possible “$380 oil” is the goal rather than a consequence (of idiotic decisions), because of a calculation about which countries can survive it and which countries cannot?
@ Eightman
>> Confederacy merely needed to survive. Unfortunately, this is how Ukraine could still “win”.
IMO, this statement is a variation of the statements about “slow” territorial gains. As other suggested, NATO’s Elensky army will hold onto territory so long as NATO keeps backfilling lost equipment and impoverishing its domestic serfs, until the serfs rebel or NATO runs out of military assets to ship to Ukraine to throw into the maws of the Russian line. (Some other patrons described those maws and this sad situation more poetically.). I suspect Russia and China industrial capacity will outlast Oceania’s.
However, I do worry about the eventual introduction of real “wonder weapons”, by either side(s). As it is, this is terribly sad. Evidently, terribly evil, reckless people rule NATOstan. I’m cringing but expect them to make matters worse for their serfs and the rest of the world.
Posted by: dfg | Sep 2 2022 16:05 utc | 17
I agree with Jo at 3 above that the EU and G7 will probably go ahead with attempting to impose a price cap, and that will result in total cessation of oil and gas to those participating countries. As you said, Idiots. However I would not go so far as to say that Russia would never resume the trade. In the Russian thinking it would be part of a comprehensive settlement on European security, that secures Russia’s position on a verifiable basis for the long term.
Seems to me that the Russians are wanting to be seen to turn up the pain dial on Europe as a response to European actions. This leaves them able to turn the pain dial down if Europe comes to its senses. Can this achieve the objective? I don’t know, but the anti Russia propaganda blitz in the West does not give me hope. Even so, the Russians are sensible to do things as they have.
Re your belief that the AFU cannot have much combat capability left, I’m not so sure. They do seem to be able to move formations around, and keep up supplies to a certain extent. I recall Dima at Military Summary forecasting, some 4-6 weeks ago, a complete collapse of the AFU front in the southern Donbass. Doesn’t seem to have happened.
What is happening is a fracturing of the EU/G7 solidarity. Poland wanting more WW2 reparations from Germany for crying out loud. Germany should respond by asking for Danzig and Stettin to be returned to Germany… Maybe, on second thoughts, this would lead to an actual re-run of WW2.
Posted by: Ross | Sep 2 2022 16:07 utc | 18
reply to 15
Ok, but that’s like Azov plant stuff. Very intense boots on the ground as with Mariupol.
The further problem is that Ukr will use artillery in civilian areas while Russia must pull punches to save a future populace.
There was a plea for negotiations from Odessa ( a good sign). I suppose they could surround big cities and just wait. I also read (Ria Fan) some Ukr general said they lost ‘hundreds of thousands’ since the SMO began. Maybe signs things are breaking..
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 16:09 utc | 19
Where is Ukraine going to get the money when the EU no longer buys Russian gas? I mean, no-one is thinking Europe is going to replace Russia as Ukraine’s sugar daddy?
Posted by: Passerby | Sep 2 2022 15:25 utc | 6
What do you think has been going on since at least 2004, the first “color revolution”? Nuland even openly bragged about the cheap U.S. “investment”: five Billion bucks in the 10 years leading up to Maidan. Germany, by extension and definition equitable to “EU”, or in Brussels-speak: “Europe”, is very eager to becoming Ukraine’s next sugar daddy.
And that’s the key difference in these schemes. Russia for far to long treated Ukraine as brotherly country while being bitten in the feeding hand repeatedly, finally being backstabbed, which eventually led to Operation Z. Germany, after being the economic power house of western Europe for the latter part of the 20th century and Euro paymeister for the last 20 years (effectively subsidizing its industry through currency manipulation), wants to play a stronger role on the world stage, while it should have stuck to building good quality products for export.
In the end, Germany will lose both its post-WW2 role as export/innovation champion and champion of blackmailing its EU-peers into submission, while its world-power-projection ambitions shatter into pieces on the ground in Ukraine (not to mention its part in the Afghanistan and Mali debacles).
One must never forget that German FM Steinmeier (today he’s President) signed a guarantee in Kiev which did not last 24 hours, a guarantee for a nonviolent transfer of power in February 2014. And it was another German, Guido Westerwelle, then vice-chancellor, who paid a visit to Maidan in December 2013, in the shadows of Victoria Nuland giving away freedom cookies and posing with the Klitchko brothers, while Nuland orchestrated Yats as “our guy” instead of “Klitch”, to the big disappointment of Berlin.
So there are 5 BN USD, plus the easing of regulations for U.S. investors, plus the biolabs, plus the Zelenskiy war racket — a huge return-on-investment for the U.S., as basic money things are something both the Russians and Germans yet need to learn; everybody knows that German military aid is a “gift” while America’s is lend-lease contracts a.k.a. credit.
While Germany could easily buy itself into the hearts and minds of Spain, Italy and Greece (sarcasm tags omitted here), Ukraine might just be too large a chunk to swallow. All the while Germany’s real foreign policy masters in the beltway are running out of popcorn while they’re watching Germany destroy itself (with a little American help, of course) for the third time in a century . . . while still propping up Ukraine.
Suggest googling Endsiegstimmung which will turn up some dozens results set in 1945: all those happy German faces not getting enough of spending even more for ever less energy and food, feeling so victorious and never stopping at giving advise not asked for.
Posted by: Nervous German | Sep 2 2022 16:22 utc | 20
I’m new here so indulge me please.
In response to ciue @ 13:
“Russia does not need to take all of Ukraine”
If RF does not take all of Ukraine it will have NATO and EU for neighbours. Worse than pre SMO.
According to the Military Summary Channel, Kharkiv has a massive metro system that can hold a very large amount of military equipment and personnel: ready made defences.
Lambo56
Posted by: lambo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:31 utc | 21
lambo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:31 utc | 22
“”If RF does not take all of Ukraine it will have NATO and EU for neighbours. Worse than pre SMO.””
? Huh?
If Russia does take all of Ukraine Russia will still have NATO and EU for neighbours – or will NATO and the EU retreat
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 2 2022 16:35 utc | 22
The Russians have to play to three constituencies, their domestic population, the Ukrainian population (especially Russian ethnics/speakers), and the 7/8th of the world’s population outside of the West (the Rest). The first for domestic support for the war, the second so that Russian occupied territories become “happy” parts of Russia both during the war and after (as well as providing intelligence from spies within Ukie controlled territory), and the third to nullify the effect of Western sanctions.
A “total war” drive to quickly crush the Ukrainian army would produce huge numbers of civilian casualties and a good few Russian military ones. This would not play well with all three constituencies. Much better to move carefully, limiting both civilian and Russian military casualties. The Ukie army is also still huge and still has parts that were well trained by NATO and capable of counter-attacks to the flanks of attacking forces, which could end up with painful tactical defeats. The cost of such a war would also be much greater than the present version, putting a much greater strain on Russian finances and the domestic population.
Time is generally on Russia’s side as it destroys the Ukie army in situ, and the Ukrainian economy continues to collapse (as noted by Marvin at 17, Russia already has the majority of Ukie GDP in its hands). Winter will be very hard for civilians within the Ukie controlled areas as gas for heating and other essentials will be scarce. Great moves by Russia to pay pensions at the Russian rate (twice the Ukie rate), and work diligently on restoring services and provide food and shelter.
Russia does need to keep grinding forward to show progress, and a thrust to Transnistria and Odessa would create economic, political and propaganda problems for Ukraine while making the Black Sea coast safe for the Russian navy and protecting Transnistria. The Ukie army just helped facilitate such a move with the pointless destruction of so much men and material, requiring the movement of troops away from Odessa to replace the destroyed battalions at the Kherson front.
In addition, the European economy will be in full on collapse this Winter, placing great strain on any politicians continuing with the sanctions and financial and military aid to Ukraine. The Republicans will capture at least one of the houses of Congress, putting some limits on US actions.
The Russian leadership, as with the Chinese leadership, have shown a great deal of patience and restrained use of force in the past few years. No surprise if the continues to be the case. I would not be surprised if the Ukie war is still going on in 2024 given the intransigence of Western elites, but Russia will have been slowly and surely (and a bit quicker now and again) grinding away at Ukie territory and Ukie military capabilities. I had earlier thought that Russia would go for some more blitzkrieg-like deep thrusts but have ben changing my mind the more I look at Russia’s position and the very careful nature of its leadership.
The winter of 2023/2024 may be the breaking point for Europe, as gas levels may be significantly lower and it would be highly improbable that the La Nina (which makes European winters less cold) will continue into a fourth winter. By then the European populations would be utterly war-weary and worn out by the 2023 recession/depression. Probably also, Russia would have all the lands East of the Dniepr and to the east and south of the northern tip of Transnistria.
This “price cap” idea is ridiculous! What kind of a negotiation would it be?
EU etc. “We will not pay more than 500 Roubles”
Russia: “It costs 1000.”
EU etc. “We will not pay more than 500 Roubles”
Russia: Well, it’s been interesting talking to you. Have a nice day, good bye.”
Posted by: John | Sep 2 2022 16:41 utc | 24
I think Ukrainian human resources are huge and obviously they are ready to die for Zel. They just hate the Russians so much.
They trust the governmenr, they adore the West. Very simple.
Posted by: mario2 | Sep 2 2022 16:42 utc | 25
Russian Telegram channels are reporting NS1 has been suspended indefinitely…LOL
Posted by: v | Sep 2 2022 16:42 utc | 26
@ pretzelattack and others concerning the first Crimean referendum
Choose your keywords more carefully…
https://search.brave.com/search?q=crimean+referendum+1991
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 2 2022 16:42 utc | 27
Gerrard White @ 23
If Russia takes all of Ukraine it will become “neutral’ state and therefore a buffer state, no. Open question.
Posted by: lambbo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:44 utc | 28
(lots of confusion about Ukraine/Russia/NATO neighbors)
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 2 2022 16:35 utc | 23
lambo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:31 utc | 22
President Putin stated in his speech on the eve of February 24th that one goal of the Special Military Operation is NATO be rolled back to its borders of 1997 (me interpreting: or else there will be no sustainable peace in Europe).
I would add that western military brass publicly whining about depleting stock piles is genuine, with lots of headroom for even more whining and many realizations to come about deindustrialized production capacity, or cheap energy for that matter. Winter is coming.
Posted by: Nervous German | Sep 2 2022 16:44 utc | 29
…the point being that Ukraine did not annex Crimea in the 1990s, that happened in 1954.
They merely declared the 1991 and subsequent referendums null and void.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 2 2022 16:48 utc | 30
Posted by: lambbo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:44 utc | 29
‘If Russia takes all of the Ukraine, it will become neutral…’
This is a contradiction in terms – a neutral country is by definition independent
Besides it may not all become part of Russia, but if it is controlled by Russia as you suggest it will be open to NATO and EU attacks
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 2 2022 16:51 utc | 31
I find the oil price cap announcement as a huge moment and a sure sign of the West taking its last stand. I think that it is their last card to play politically. Why?
That is because of the way they intend to lever/enforce the idea: withold financial services to countries and entities that defy the cap. This will mean that countries will have to make a commitment to the West (G7): are you with us or against. No middle way as now where most of the countries act neutrally. This is probably also the whole intention: a de facto cleaving of the World.
(This is also the methods via which extremist progressives that hold the reign in the West and fight this ideological war against traditionalist/conventional value systems make sure you follow them, e.g. cancel culture)
In my view the point when much of the future will become clear is the first moment when the G7 will have to apply or enforce the sanctions against a non-cap-compliant country.
If this doesnt play out in the way the West wants to, due to the miriad of reasons why this was deemed a risky move, all non military means will be exhausted. What will remain is escalation with weapons of much higher modernity and yes, confrontation by provoking/gaming Article 5 of NATO.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 16:51 utc | 32
Posted by: lambbo56 | Sep 2 2022 16:44 utc | 29
This is not only reported by Telegram channels!
It will be officially announced on German TV!
German storage is “officially” at about 84%, but nobody knows if that’s true. Since the German storage volumes MUST also include those in Austria, but Germany does not count this.
Check out this link
.
https://gas.kyos.com/gas/de
Posted by: mo3 | Sep 2 2022 16:51 utc | 33
Nervous German | Sep 2 2022 16:44 utc | 30
” one goal of the Special Military Operation is NATO be rolled back to its borders of 1997 (me interpreting: or else there will be no sustainable peace in Europe).””
You are speculating on behalf of M Putin
Besides – To roll back borders does not guarantee peace
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 2 2022 16:54 utc | 34
This “price cap” idea is ridiculous!
Posted by: John | Sep 2 2022 16:41 utc | 25
No, it’s not.
In the parallel universe decoupled from reality, also known as EU capitals, they sincerely believe that Russia is in desperate need to sell its natural resources at any cost. That there won’t be UAE, India or Türkiye who will slap a 200% margin (at least) on the evil Russian stuff and resell it to the EU. That the rules of the market never ever apply to them pesky Russkies, let alone be used by them against the Western masters.
We should always remember that these “qualified assessments” are made by people in paygrades more than 90 percent of the population can only dream of, and that they only care about the best for the people they serve. /sarcasm
Posted by: Nervous German | Sep 2 2022 16:55 utc | 35
Just to add something I have forgotten.
The G7 may pressure OPEC to compensate Russia’s witholding of oil sales. Maybe they already have a deal. I would think without it, the G7 would have not announced the oil price cap. But that is rational thinking. I dont know if that is the case here, it really depends on how the internal state is of the West concerning competence and panic levels (the picture we are not allowed to see).
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 16:57 utc | 36
There was a plea for negotiations from Odessa ( a good sign). I suppose they could surround big cities and just wait. I also read (Ria Fan) some Ukr general said they lost ‘hundreds of thousands’ since the SMO began. Maybe signs things are breaking..
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 16:09 utc | 20
That is a hopeful sign. Odessa could follow the example of Charleston, SC in the American Civil War. It was not burned to the ground even though the secession movement started there.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 2 2022 16:57 utc | 37
>> but if it is controlled by Russia as you suggest
>> it will be open to NATO and EU attacks
It’ll remain a threat. But, with Russia conserving its strength through its go-slow approach, NATO will probably *remain* reluctant to step directly into the ring.
Posted by: dfg | Sep 2 2022 17:01 utc | 38
dfg | Sep 2 2022 17:01 utc | 39
“But, with Russia conserving its strength through its go-slow approach”
If Russia were to control all Ukraine this would do the opposite of ‘conserving it’s strength’, it would be to spread it’s forces very widely
Russia MO so far has been the opposite – there’s nothing to suggest this has changed
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 2 2022 17:06 utc | 39
Posted by: John | Sep 2 2022 16:41 utc | 25
Good idea for drivers, at the pump when they tell you its five bucks a gallon, well I’ll only pay one fifty, new economic world order. Idiots at the wheel, but more idiots voting them like bimbo Baerbock telling German voters to fuck off. The day of reckoning for those clowns is coming, NS1 closed until further notice.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 2 2022 17:07 utc | 40
Marvin | Sep 2 2022 16:03 utc | 17
&
Jo Dominich | Sep 2 2022 15:14 utc | 3
thank you, and thank for suggesting we view the clip to the end. To my mind, that encompassing humanity is (among others) what the Russians are fighting for, and it has been pointed out several times here that aggressively partisan pro-Russian views (like that of intel-slava on telegram) both miss the point and fall short of the maturity of their leadership. I understand how easy it is to take such a stance in a period of war. I often find myself slipping into it.
Now about Reisner’s estimates of industrial production, it seems to me there can be objections raised to them. Ukraine’s economy for the last two decades has existed in an artificial space. I may well be wrong and would care to be corrected on this, but I cannot think of anything that Ukraine produced before the war that could not be supplied by Russia. However the EU would only buy from Russian at cost, if at all. When it was announced that the steel factory in Mariupol would not be rebuilt (I believe this has been reversed), I found it quite natural, given the skewed environment in which Russia operates.
Jo Dominich | Sep 2 2022 15:14 utc | 3
On a different subject, energy poverty is our future, as can be seen by a simple image search for ‘crude oil: discoveries vs production’. There is a very nice interview of Colin Campbell on You Tube that explains this and ends with the prospect of the drawn-out energy winter. Should everything return to some sort of sanity and significant investments in the fossil fuel economy proceed apace, for some time we can regain what seemed the return to normalcy after the energy crisis of 2007–13. But it will be a very short time: my bet, it will take about three to five years for our efforts to produce results and it will only last about, again, three to five years, but I have been wrong before.
It has been pointed out by several energy-aware economists that, before our standard of living collapses, it is our financial system that will fail first, and all the irregular interventions and financial instruments created since 2009 can be seen as rather desperate responses to this problem. My sense is it will soon get worse and even more contrived and illogical.
Finally, I would like to ask our host to consider creating a daily thread for news from the war front.
Regards,
@vec
–
Posted by: @vedc | Sep 2 2022 17:08 utc | 41
This attempted Russian oil/gas price fixing scam is just that. The EU/US know that Russian oil is being sold at a discount to friendly 3rd parties and then resold to the EU at a handsome profit.
They simply want to eliminate the “Russian friendly” middleman’s profit, without appearing to have dropped sanctions.
[idiocy]^10
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 2 2022 17:08 utc | 42
G7 price cap, and just like that NS1 is suspended indefinitely.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 2 2022 17:12 utc | 43
Well the latest news; Nordstream hase been suspended indefinitely, Gazprom has announced.
G7 put a prize cap in oil. A gas price cap is coming.
Serbia and Hungary are getting their gas/oil via the Turkish pipelines.
The German LDP party wants to dismantle Nordstream 2. France is cut off from gas. Did not pay for
July deliveries.
Zelensky declares it is necessary to control the NPP in Energodar otherwise Ukraine will not be able to supply electricity to Europe.
No more gas to Europe= no more money to Kiev.
Now collapsing industries in Germany etc.
Finally G7 managed to find the selfdestruct button an pushed it…
Amazing world.
Posted by: DutchZ | Sep 2 2022 17:14 utc | 44
#37
“The G7 may pressure OPEC to compensate Russia’s witholding of oil sales.”
Xiden already begged SA. They said maybe in ’25.
Xiden had already gone to US oil cos. They said 5 years minimum.
It’s not like a faucet that you can just turn on & off.
Posted by: Mary | Sep 2 2022 17:15 utc | 45
Oh dear Baerbock, tell your boss LiverWurst that the turbine is leaking, badly, and:
«Акт обнаружения утечки масла подписан также представителями компании Siemens», – сообщили в пресс-службе.
“The oil leak detection act was also signed by representatives of Siemens,” the press service reported.
There you go sweety.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 2 2022 17:15 utc | 46
Posted by: Mary | Sep 2 2022 17:15 utc | 46
I know, but I give them the benefit of the doubt.
They can also militarily pressure the Arabs for oil: that will not go down easily in the sizable immigrant communities in the West (downtown Minneapolis) nor will Erdogan be happy.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 17:18 utc | 47
It seems to me that the Russian leadership are playing the “death by a thousand cuts” process with Europe.
Russia has scrapped a Saturday deadline to resume gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, one of the main supply routes to Europe, after saying it discovered a fault during maintenance, deepening Europe’s difficulties in securing fuel for winter.
Nord Stream 1, which runs under the Baltic Sea to supply Germany and others, had been due to resume operating after a three-day halt for maintenance on Saturday at 0100 GMT.
But Gazprom, the state-controlled firm with a monopoly on Russian gas exports via pipeline, said on Friday it could no longer provide a timefrme for restarting deliveries after finding an oil leak that meant a pipeline turbine could not run safely.
Sit back, relax, grab a fab bottle, have a great weekend and get ready for European gas prices to go SUPER PARABOLIC when trading resumes on Monday.
I love the smell of EU sanctions in the morning.
Smells like… napalm.
Greetings from Pepe Escobar 🙂
Posted by: DutchZ | Sep 2 2022 17:20 utc | 49
Posted by: Mary | Sep 2 2022 17:15 utc | 46
It’s not like a faucet that you can just turn on & off.
The only faucet that for a running out period of time could still be turned on or off is NS2, but NS2 is like a huge white banner hung over the Reichstag, something like Meliton Kantaria riding wild again.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 2 2022 17:21 utc | 50
President Putin stated in his speech on the eve of February 24th that one goal of the Special Military Operation is NATO be rolled back to its borders of 1997 (me interpreting: or else there will be no sustainable peace in Europe).
Finally, someone else actually listening to what Putin said….
Which…
Is why….
I have repeatedly stated that the Russians are pursuing Operation Bagration II…
AND….
Will march on Berlin….
Figuratively…. or literally…..
NATO is toast….
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2022 17:23 utc | 51
No Kherson news from Western MSM is a clue the Ukrainian army may be getting decimated. Normally, MSM hypes up any indication the UAF is winning, regardless of how paltry or indeterminant those “victories” may be.
I remember MSM’s reaction to the Battle of Ilovaisk in 2014. It didn’t say a word about the Ukrainian catastrophe for four days after the fact. The Western media silence was eerie.
Posted by: GW | Sep 2 2022 17:23 utc | 52
🇨🇳🇺🇲⚡️Chinese Foreign Ministry: The United States, being the initiator of the situation in Ukraine, is now watching the energy crisis in Europe from the other side, receiving benefits and super profits
According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, the difference in gas prices in the European and American markets has reached record levels, the gap in prices is already more than 10 times.
According to figures released by Business Insider, US companies could make more than $100 million in windfall profits from each LNG ship to Europe.
Congrats Joe, you did it man…
Posted by: DutchZ | Sep 2 2022 17:24 utc | 53
No Kherson news from Western MSM is a clue the Ukrainian army may be getting decimated. Normally, MSM hypes up any indication the UAF is winning, regardless of how paltry or indeterminant those “victories” may be.
I remember MSM’s reaction to the Battle of Ilovaisk in 2014. It didn’t say a word about the Ukrainian catastrophe for four days after the fact. The Western media silence was eerie.
Posted by: GW | Sep 2 2022 17:23 utc | 53
.
No they cannot put the Saudis under pressure! Because where there is hardly or only a little nothing comes out with pressure, everyone knows that the Saudis only have limited oil, why should they pump more and then sell it cheaply because of this?
Posted by: mo3 | Sep 2 2022 17:27 utc | 54
@ Jo Dominich #3, ThusspakeZarathustra #13, Ross #19, John #25, alek_a #37
I am waiting now to hear whether the EU and the G7 will try to impose a price cap on Russian oil and gas. They are so blinded by hatred that they probably will.
Yellen feels political heat from her inflation. She originally jawbone-pitched her price plan months ago. As a potential midterm rout looms ever larger, Western corporate media decided to promote Yellen’s words once again.
Analysts and experts have warned trying to implement the price cap could send oil prices skyrocketing
… Under Yellen’s plan that the G7 ministers will discuss, the EU insurance ban would be reversed if Russian oil is being sold at a set price. But the plan relies on compliance from Russia, and Moscow will not want to sell its oil at a price set by the West.
The plan also relies on compliance from China and India, who have become major buyers of Russian oil in the wake of the Western sanctions campaign. China and India are already purchasing Russian oil at a discount, and have little reason to rock the boat with Moscow. Even if the countries say they will comply, insurance companies have said it would be hard to enforce the set price.
If Russia responds to the attempted price cap by cutting oil production, experts have warned prices could skyrocket. In the worst-case scenario, analysts at JPMorgan Chase said oil could shoot up to a “stratospheric” $380 per barrel. Oil prices are currently hovering around $100 per barrel.
news.antiwar.com
Posted by: ? | Sep 2 2022 17:30 utc | 55
Any attempt to cap the control of pipeline supplies of gas to Europe will result in the cutting off of those supplies, with the result that gas prices in Europe will sky-rocket even more and electricity blackouts will become a fixture in Europe. LNG prices would also sky rocket as Europe desperately looked for other supplies, allowing for more gas to be smuggled via third countries to Europe. Russia would make some more money on its gas supplies that are not subject to long term contracts and probably start negotiations to build more gas pipelines to China, India, South East Asia etc.
Any attempt to cap the price of oil, which is a globally traded commodity, will result in an immediate cut off to Europe from Russia and other suppliers (probably even Norway). India, China etc, will be happy to keep buying oil at market prices. Completely delusional ideas from elites desperately looking for an exit from the corner that they have put themselves in. The only way out is to drop the sanctions. Another issue is that Russia has become increasingly autarkic, and therefore doesn’t need as much foreign currency for imports – especially Euros and US$’s.
Oil prices may fall, but due to the recession/depression enveloping Europe and the US.
Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 15:19 at 4, et. al.
I think you are quite correct that the Ukraine does not have to “win” to actually win; all it has to do is survive. What I believe though what we are seeing here is a very asymetrical war in many dimensions. First there is the “classical” ground war that the Russians clearly have the upper hand on, but then there is a guerilla-terror war being conducted mainly by the Ukraines. I’m not so sure Russia has a good enough defense against that. Even though Russia may achieve its overt military goals, it will be plagued by guerilla-terror activity for many years to come which can eventually drag them down into compitulation. As such I further believe the only way to get rid of the guerrilla fighting and terrorism is to decapitate the source, or at least the local source; that I believe is to fully take down the Kiev regime, and neuter its supporters. That probably means taking over Kiev itself as well as the whole of the Ukraine, and securing borders. There are additional more global dimensions to this war as well, but I won’t get into that here. The Russians if they are to be successful have a lot of work ahead of them.
Posted by: Robert | Sep 2 2022 17:39 utc | 57
The gloating about storage fill rate overlooks the fact that that storage is only adequate given the normal flow of gas from Russia. It ain’t flowing normally though.
Posted by: bottle | Sep 2 2022 17:39 utc | 58
@Eighthman #14
Perhaps you can elaborate on what good putting a bunch of tanks, hiding underground, does?
Does Ukraine have fuel? ammo? trained troops to man them? Infantry to support them?
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 2 2022 17:58 utc | 59
John 25 This “price cap” idea is ridiculous! What kind of a negotiation would it be?
EU etc. “We will not pay more than 500 Roubles”
Russia: “It costs 1000.”
EU etc. “We will not pay more than 500 Roubles”
Russia: Well, it’s been interesting talking to you. Have a nice day, good bye.”
EU etc. (aside): Y e e e e s!”
EU etc. would absolutely like their populations to feel the squeeze (because, climate, you know) and “blame Russia” provides yet more rationale to nudge the sceptics.
Posted by: petra | Sep 2 2022 17:58 utc | 60
when I search for “Ukraine’s annexation of Crimea in the 1990’s” all i get back in results has to do with “Russian annexation of Ukraine in 2014”. hmmm.
Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 2 2022 15:13 utc | 2
Maybe because Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954, during the Soviet period and Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. Correct me if I am wrong, but I know nothing about the “annexation of Crimea” in the 1990’s.
Posted by: Guernica | Sep 2 2022 18:00 utc | 61
About the oil cap, I’m trying to get a sense of what is at stake here.
How many insurance companies are there that can effectively avoid Western sanction?
Related question : how difficult and how long would it take for immune states to set up their own insurance system for oil shipment?
Posted by: robin | Sep 2 2022 18:00 utc | 62
Military Summary says Ukraine is piling up big tank numbers underground in Kharkiv – in old Soviet facilities that could withstand a nuke.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 15:48 utc | 14
Dima seems to need to throw the Ukrainians a bone in every episode. He initially thought the attack on the NPP was a brilliant idea (special morning summary of Sept 1, about 4 mins long). I suspect that comes from his supposed personal connections to both sides of the conflict and that he has supporters of both sides watching his summaries every day. The question Dima should be addressing is where are all of these “big tank numbers” coming from? Ukraine almost certainly does not have many good tanks left. If they are keeping a strategic reserve in the bowls of Kharkov to deploy when the need is critical, those tanks will emerge and get destroyed like the others. The tanks can’t attack or defend from underground.
Posted by: Activist Potato | Sep 2 2022 18:00 utc | 63
@lambo56 #22
Sorry, but Russia has NATO neighbors already: the Baltics. Plus Poland –> Belarus. Plus soon to be Finland.
Not the least bit clear what exactly taking all of Ukraine does.
Either way: NATO countries or rump Ukraine can both allow Ukrainian saboteurs and what not to try and cause trouble; the difference is whether the local populace will support these by hiding them or not.
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 2 2022 18:02 utc | 64
@lambo56 #22
As for the subway: I am not familiar with Kharkiv’s subway system.
Does it have hundreds of exits with ramps large enough to allow a multiplicity of movement? Are the subway tunnels large enough to permit large mass movements of tanks, underground, between the exits?
Otherwise, how is it different than burying all that military stuff in a big hole in the ground? i.e. good for preserving them from Russian artillery, but 95% useless for defense or offense.
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 2 2022 18:06 utc | 65
About the NPP: apparently large quantities of plutonium and uranium are stored there (probably as spent fuel). Someone at the Saker says its 300 billion $ worth. That seems much. But if real, that much value in real assets… Wars have been fought for less.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 18:06 utc | 66
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 16:51 utc | 33
That is because of the way they intend to lever/enforce the idea: withhold financial services to countries and entities that defy the cap. This will mean that countries will have to make a commitment to the West (G7): are you with us or against. No middle way as now where most of the countries act neutrally. This is probably also the whole intention: a de facto cleaving of the World.
OBSERVATIONS
1) The basic scheme appears to be one in which the consumer nations (the West) dictate the selling price to the producer nations (the rest of the world – ROW).
2) The OPEC nations will be cheered to hear that the price of energy is to be set by a consumer cartel. Everything the ROW produces, makes, and transacts, will potentially be sold at whatever price the dependent, de-industrialized West wishes to set. Going to Bali on vacation at a 5 star hotel? “I’ll pay $100 per night and no more.” Want rare earth from China, lithium from Bolivia, transistors, Iphones, yellow-cake, cobalt, shipping services? The ROW which has faced the predatory West for the past 200+ years will now impose market discipline on the retards presently in power in the West.
3) Financial Services? Why should the West hold a monopoly on provision of marine insurance and the right to revoke insurance at its whim? Why should new firms list on the NYSE when better terms are available elsewhere? Why should the West hold a monopoly on financial services? Where are Western retirement funds going to invest? In the collapsing economies of the West? Or in the fecund growing economies of the ROW?
4) This initiative presents a golden opportunity to RF, China, and the ROW nations to fully dethrone the West. Future historians will look back on this moment as the day the West demonstrated an irrevocable intent to commit seppuku. The West will of course be required to pay a license fee to some 3rd world entity for the use of the term “seppuku.”
Posted by: Sushi | Sep 2 2022 18:07 utc | 67
Posted by: robin | Sep 2 2022 18:00 utc | 64
About insurance and financial services: that is one of the few aspects that the West is strong in. The economies here… they are pretty much FIRE sector now. Also globally. Even formally non-FIRE companies like big tech are pretty much financialized.
But, setting up alternative trade mechanisms will require the whole chain of financial and insurance services: markets, liquidity, warehousing, logistics, insurance, derivatives etc. On the other hand, you dont need to start at the same level immediately.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 18:13 utc | 68
lambo56, c1ue, et al.(Russia bordering on NATO)
I take it those desk atlases are gathering too much dust. RF has had a border with Norway and with Poland (K’grad) since forever.
Posted by: petra | Sep 2 2022 18:21 utc | 69
Posted by: Sushi | Sep 2 2022 18:07 utc | 68
Yes I know. But overturning that requires dedication, common direction, spirit and of course money. The West will also not sit idle during that time, they will hit back. Original intentions may get lost on the way… So its neither easy nor a guaranteed outcome.
It is a momentuous decision, either way, this price cap today. For people in the know (ahem market speculators) maybe not but for us ordinary folks that have no access to inside info or mechanisms of trade this is a large info dump.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 18:26 utc | 70
Maybe because Crimea was given to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954, during the Soviet period and Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. Correct me if I am wrong, but I know nothing about the “annexation of Crimea” in the 1990’s.
Posted by: Guernica | Sep 2 2022 18:00 utc | 62
I stand corrected.
https://search.brave.com/search?q=crimean+referendum+1991
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 2 2022 16:42 utc | 28
That is a very interesting piece of HISTORY.
Posted by: Guernica | Sep 2 2022 18:36 utc | 71
EU leaders have long been posers and fakes, imagining themselves as the directors of civilization. During Reagan, they raised public outcry against bombing Libya while (reportedly) telling the US in secret to kill Khadaffi.
I am seeing estimates that Russia could eventually sell nearly all oil/gas to Asia and friendly nations, with little to spare. And they can keep on selling to EU thru China or UAE or who ever cares to re-brand their stuff. It is truly jaw dropping how the globe depends on energy that’s sanctioned by the EU/US Suicide Squad. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Syria…
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 18:56 utc | 72
Either way: NATO countries or rump Ukraine can both allow Ukrainian saboteurs and what not to try and cause trouble; the difference is whether the local populace will support these by hiding them or not.
Posted by: c1ue | Sep 2 2022 18:02 utc | 65
It seems to me that Pro-Russian Ukrainians forces and Russian special forces can play the same terrorist games as the proxy Nazi special forces do.
Posted by: Guernica | Sep 2 2022 19:07 utc | 73
I’ll note that the FIRE sector is not about the revenue stream itself as income/profit, it was once upon a time but no more, that’s what financialization is all about that the revenue stream, often AAA like real estate, is used as a down payment and leveraged 10-40X to create the incredible ever-expanding filthy lucre regulatory captured bubble machine, the neo-feudal free ride for the 1%. The billions in the FIRE sector allow the trillions in the derivative sector.
The power of the lever works both ways, any small drop in the input, the rates paid into the FIRE sector and the whole thing collapses as it did in 2008. Any interference in the FIRE sector even small is an existential threat to West, both Main Street and Wall Street, as these days the bubble is pretty much the economy. An attack on the FIRE sector is WW3. Hopefully after a few years of hybrid war China and Russia will skip over the neo-cons and make a deal directly with Wall St/The City.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2022 19:09 utc | 74
The big Russia news in Dutch MSM today is that the G7 (“the west”) is now planning a price cap for Russian oil exports also for countries that are not sanctioning Russia.
They are seriously talking about sanctioning or blocking ships with Russian oil to third countries that are sold above a certain price cap.
Seems to me “the west” the G7 thinks they are the UN or something.
Posted by: Jimmy | Sep 2 2022 19:22 utc | 75
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2022 19:09 utc | 76
And we come to the core of the matter. Wall str vs. Russia and China.
Although I would say that the ideological divide is first but that is slightly too abstract for me to argue for or against it. The discussion tends to drift away towards Philosophy, far away from what matters on the ground.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 19:56 utc | 77
What with Biden’s speech content+optics yesterday, the NPP stories and now the price cap, I am reminded of this: there are years when nothing happens and there are days when years happen.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 20:00 utc | 78
reply to 77
So they board and seize ships from Turkey, India and China? An open act of war? How do Britain, US and Canada place a price cap on oil they don’t buy?
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 20:01 utc | 79
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 20:01 utc | 82
They will sanction those entities or even countries, either partially (denying insurance or fin services) or fully. This is the core of the matter and as I said, everyone is now forced to take a side.
Just like when they cancel somenone: your true oppinion doesnt really matter since if you dont support youre cancelled as well.
Posted by: alek_a | Sep 2 2022 20:07 utc | 80
reply to Eighthman 82
I suppose the G7 countries wanna sanction any shipping company that transport Russian oil that is sold below a certain price.
But you never know they might even seize ships, same thing the British have done in the past with an Iranian tanker that passed by Gibraltar when delivering oil to Syria, the reaon was that it was against EU sanctions against Syria, even though Syria and Iran are not part of the EU.
The west thinks they can impose extra territorial sanctions , sanctions outside of their own countries as if they are the UN.
Posted by: Jimmy | Sep 2 2022 20:13 utc | 81
U.S. Bid to Cap Russian Oil Prices Draws Skepticism Over Enforcement
The maritime insurance industry says policing oil transactions is not workable, raising questions about enforcement of a buyers’ cartel.
… But the untested concept has drawn skepticism from energy experts and, in particular, the maritime insurance sector, which facilitates global oil shipments and is key to making the proposal work. Under the plan, it would be legal for them to grant insurance for oil cargo only if it was being sold at or below a certain price.
The insurers, which are primarily in the European Union and Britain, fear they would have to enforce the price cap by verifying whether Russia and oil buyers around the world were honoring the agreement.
“We can ask to see evidence of the price paid, but as an enforcement mechanism, it’s not very effective,” said Mike Salthouse, global claims director at The North of England P&I Association Limited, a leading global marine insurer. “If you have sophisticated state actors wanting to deceive people, it’s very easy to do.”
He added: “We’ve said it won’t work. We’ve explained to everybody why.”
That has not deterred Ms. Yellen and her top aides, who have been crisscrossing the globe to make their case with international counterparts, banks and insurers that an oil price cap can — and must — work at a moment of rapid inflation and the risk of recession. …
NY Times
Posted by: ? | Sep 2 2022 20:22 utc | 82
Just minutes ago, @rybar announced that the Andreevka salient is now officially a cauldron. The’ve lost their command posts, supply depots, and retreat routes across the Ingulets. The Ukies in and around Sukhoi Stavka took some ungodly number of FAB-500 hits delivered by Sukhoi attack aircraft. I’m sure the irony will be widely appreciated.
These past couple of days it would be sweet to be a fly on the wall of the operations room at MI-6 HQ.
https://t.me/rybar/38100
Posted by: Thirdeye | Sep 2 2022 20:46 utc | 83
The wounded conscripts are now driven to Nikolaev and Odessa in long lines, in civilian cars.
-The Ukrainians had at least four months to prepare for this
-All the hospitals on the Ukrainian side of the river are full
-They don’t have nearly enough military ambulances
Someone should get fired. By a firing squad.
Posted by: Tenet | Sep 2 2022 20:51 utc | 84
reply to 84
India has BraMos missiles (thanks to Russia). China and Turkiye won’t “play’ either. Western bullies can only do small nations. Maybe this BS is just a subterfuge to appear to be ‘doing something’ while discreetly compromising.
I have to laugh at all the You Tube videos coming from India. They are really “on board” with cheering Russia from the sidelines with opinion that defies the Western narrative.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 20:55 utc | 85
If it was literal there would be an American troop build up in Europe, so it is not literal.
And Russia hasn’t actually done anything except move troops into the northern Black Sea area and reinforce its exclave in Ostprussia, so it is not figurative. You are a fantasist. NATO may eventually split but the UK/French/Italian core will remain.
I would imagine that core you mention to be somewhat fragile…. particularly given a winter with
out energy/aluminum/titanium/steel/ammonia/potash/phosphorus/wheat/pigs/beef/poultry….
The population of France in particular has been restive through the ages…
It is my estimation that NATO will be put on a diet…. after all…. why feed the monster bent on devouring you???
There are many roads to Rome… Berlin….. Paris…. London….
Just ask the pub owners in the UK…. who are closing up shop….
Leaving….
The population no where to socialize…. except home before a cold fireless hearth…. sipping meltwater…
Hmmmmm…..
INDY
Posted by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Sep 2 2022 20:55 utc | 86
alek_a @ 81
What with Biden’s speech content+optics yesterday… I am reminded of this: there are years when nothing happens and there are days when years happen.
I think Lenin was talking about the world unexpectedly snapping from one direction to another, some form of new awaited logic favorable to one side or the other, not the clusterfuck of a world spiraling out of control. That Biden speech I believe was lit all in red with the guards at his side to metaphorically ‘sound the alarm’ to America but made him looks like Satan instead. Who the fuck wants to look like Satan! Of the hundreds of people involved in setting up a national speech no one said, “Wait, it makes him look like Satan!” This controlling the narrative should be pretty rote, instead West is in a total clusterfuck meltdown.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 2 2022 20:56 utc | 87
Oil price caps is completely bonkers because, when applied to something pretty much everybody needs and wants, it’s the sellers who have the upper hand, not the buyers. Or, basically, only oil-producing countries can force a cap on their prices; customers can try but will fail, unless they decide to actually boycott oil.
The sheer stupidity of it is mind-boggling. At this point, you only do this as virtue-signalling to piss off Russia, because any sensible person will know it cannot work and won’t hurt Russia at all.
Of course, if the West decides to apply this to all buyers, meaning non-Western countries, this will basically be an act of war. History has shown us how well it worked for Napoleon when he had to invade Spain and Russia to enforce his blockade.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 2 2022 20:56 utc | 88
People say “Putin wants to take Ukraine”.
Russia is a democracy. No, they don’t want tens of millions of Ukrainians voting and tipping elections.
Russia never wanted the Russian areas of Ukraine to come back to Russia either – it was much better to have them involved in Ukrainian politics. That would force Ukraine to be more peaceful toward Russia…
…until a Biden-sponsored coup in 2014 removed the tentative peace built in the country, and even in Odessa, a historically very Russian city, any talk about pro-Russian policies would cost you your career.
So now it’s: Save the Russian areas from further oppression, by bringing them to Russia. Let them have Russian schools and newspapers. And this way, deprive Ukraine of 85% of their economy, and their harbors, and make them cooperate with Russia because of that instead.
If Russia takes Odessa the war is over. Ukraine can’t survive without that harbor. And they know they can’t take it back, they haven’t been able to take anything back.
Let’s hope it is done soon, before the end of the year.
Posted by: Tenet | Sep 2 2022 21:05 utc | 89
NY Times on price cap:
“That has not deterred Ms. Yellen and her top aides, who have been crisscrossing the globe to make their case with international counterparts, banks and insurers that an oil price cap can — and must — work at a moment of rapid inflation and the risk of recession. …”
It “must” work. Russia “must” be defeated. Putin “must” not be seen to win.
Yellen’s office also cooked up the full court press on the Russian economy – including SWIFT and the central bank assets – which didn’t work out. This is doubling down. It remains astonishing that there has been no apparent Plan B or Plan C, or contingencies prepared for Russian gas cutoff.
Posted by: jayc | Sep 2 2022 21:13 utc | 90
pretzelattack:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1995-03-18-mn-44129-story.html
https://www.refworld.org/docid/469f38ec2.html (I find the stuff starting in 1994 quite fascinating. History seems to repeat on Russia’s periphery often – thanks to Uncle Scam)
Also this language thing, 1997, hmmm…
Jan 15, 1997 Leaders of the Russian community of Crimea held a press conference to draw attention to what they say is a policy of “language aggression” aimed at “driving out the Russian language in Ukraine.” Last Fall, the Ukrainian president gave instructions to the government and heads of local administrations to intensify control over the putting into effect of the language policy, to draft a new edition of the law on language, to work out privileges for the publication and circulation of materials in Ukrainian and to issue licenses only to those TV companies which broadcast mostly in Ukrainian. The press conference organizers claimed the president violated the Ukrainian constitution which guarantees the free development, use and protection of Russian and other languages of national minorities. They also sent a message to the Russian government suggesting it “examine the problem of the language rights of Russian population of Ukraine and Crimea, the situation of Russians and Russian Culture in Ukraine and especially in the regions traditionally inhabited by Russians and discuss a possibility of rendering assistance for the purpose of preserving Russian culture, as well as the Russian language and information space.”
Feb 1997 Crimea’s mainly pro-Russian parliament sacked speaker Vasily Kiselyov whom deputies accused of being too favorable to Ukraine.
Feb 23, 1997 Crimean communists attending a meeting in Simferopol have called on authorities to cut off relations with NATO. The Congress of the Russian People called on Russian and Ukrainian leaders to immediately sign a defensive union recognizing Sevastopol as the main base of the Black Sea Fleet.
Mar 18, 1997 Riot police in Crimea prevented about 1000 protestors from storming the parliament building in Simferopol during a demonstration calling for the return of the peninsula to Russia. Pro-Russian communist groups organized the demonstration which was attended by about 5000 people.
Mar 20, 1997 An announcement that the U.S. and Ukraine would participate in joint naval exercises this summer brought a protest from Russia. The outcry over the planned exercise was traced to an early scenario drawn up by the Ukraine in which a separatist revolt by and unnamed “ethnically based party” is threatening the integrity of Ukraine. The separatists in the scenario are backed by an “unnamed neighboring country.” The unnamed party was interpreted by Moscow to be Crimean Russians and the unnamed neighboring country Russia itself. The U.S. rejected this scenario outright. A previous joint exercise (July 1995) went off without controversy. (Note Protests against the exercises, especially by Russians in the Crimea, occurred on an almost weekly basis until the maneuvers were held in September, and will not be further mentioned unless otherwise noteworthy.)
Mar 27, 1997 President Kuchma, in a news conference in Moscow, called for a resolution of the Black Sea Fleet issue, and bilateral relations between the two republics. (Xinhua 3/27/97)
Apr 4, 1997 Shortly after limiting the amount of Russian language programming transmitted to the Crimea, Kiev reduced the amount of Russian-language broadcasting in Crimea to four hours a week. (TASS 4/4/97)
Apr 9, 1997 The Crimean parliament voted overwhelmingly to oust Prime Minister Arkady Demidenko, the third attempt to oust him since January. Observers said the ouster of Demidenko was based on clan rivalry (the leader of the movement was related to President Kuchma through marriage) rather than pressure to forge closer ties with Moscow or Kiev. According to the constitution, the Ukrainian head of state must approve the resignation of the Crimean government. (Agence France Presse 4/9/97) The head of Russia’s upper house of parliament suggested that Ukraine join the planned union of Russia and Belarus, arguing “those Slav states should form the core of integration in the CIS.” (NOTE The issue of union with Russia and/or Belarus recurs regularly throughout the period covered by this update, and will not be further mentioned unless otherwise noteworthy.” (British Broadcasting Corporation 4/11/97)
Apr 10, 1997 During Ukrainian hearings on the freedom of the media, the Ukrainian Information Ministry said that the number of Ukrainian-language books published in 1996 was 2.3 times less than the number in 1970, and 1.15 times less than the number in 1990. In addition, ninety percent of the 70 private radio stations in Ukraine broadcast in Russian. The Information Minister used these statistics to decry what he called the “Russification” of Ukraine and called on the parliament to defend the Ukrainian language. He also blamed Ukrainian media’s freedom to broadcast in the language of their choice, and the “amorphous-democratic” laws for this decline. (TASS 4/10/97)
Apr 17, 1997 Russia’s upper house of parliament voted to make the contested city of Sevastopol a special international city. The Federation Council insisted that its proposal did not amount to Russian territorial designs on Sevastopol. The Deputy Foreign Minister representing Ukrainian interests in the Black Sea Fleet negotiations rejected the proposal, saying that Sevastopol was unequivocally a part of Ukraine. (Agence France Presse 4/17/97 and TASS 4/22/97)
Apr 20, 1997 A Russian Federation Council commission dealing with the question of Sevastopol decided that Russia should directly declare its historical rights to the city and declare it an international city under international law, perhaps appealing to the UN. The commission declared the 1954 Supreme Soviet resolution that turned Crimea over to the Ukraine unconstitutional, saying the presidium did not have the authority to do so. (British Broadcasting Corporation 4/22/97)
May 7, 1997 About 150 activists from pro-Russian public organizations picketed the Sevastopol State TV and Radio Company for two hours to demand a resumption of Russian Public Television [ORT] broadcasts in the city, instead of the Inter channel. The TV company promised to restore the 10-hour ORT broadcasts in the near future. Prior to mid-April, Sevastopol was the only city in Crimea that received ORT instead of Inter. (British Broadcasting Corporation 5/16/97)
May 21, 1997 Sixty of the 70 deputies of the Crimean parliament passed a resolution to oust Premier Arkadi Demidenko, in the eighth attempt. After the last attempt in March, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma vetoed the decision of the Crimean parliament as “contradicting Ukraine’s law.” (Deutsche Presse-Agentur 5/21/97)
May 27, 1997 The Russian Prime Minister reacted with concern to a proposed new Ukrainian language law which he said would “limit and force out” the Russian language from intellectual life. He claimed that Russians and Russian-speakers were often denied their rights and were often denied employment or residence permits based on their citizenship. (TASS 5/27/97) Ukrainian Prime Minister Pavel Lasarenko offered to lease a portion of the port of Sevastopol to Russia for 20 years as part of an agreement on the Black Sea fleet. An agreement to that effect was signed the following day. However, most Sevastopol and Crimea residents felt the agreement was not in their advantage, and appealed to the Federation Council and State Duma not to ratify the Black Sea agreement. (Deutsche Presse-Agentur 5/27/97 and TASS 5/28/97 & 5/30/97)
May 31, 1997 Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and his Russian counterpart, Boris Yeltsin, signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and partnership, which promised that the two countries would respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, not violate the present borders, nor interfere in each other’s internal affairs. The treaty marked the first time Russia had formally recognized Ukraine’s independence, and was decried by some Russian politicians as a sign of giving up hope of protecting Russians or the Russian language in Ukraine. About 150 Russian protestors demonstrated in Sevastopol over the weekend, saying Yeltsin had betrayed them by accepting Crimea as part of Ukraine. (Xinhua 5/31/97 and The Independent [London] 5/30/97 and Financial Times 6/2/97)
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Sep 2 2022 21:18 utc | 91
reply to 93
The scary thing is, I’m not clear on how this EVER ends. Double down? Triple down. Quadruple down. I laugh at predictions of riots and disorder in EU. French protested for maybe a year and then elected Macron ! A Swedish woman apologized for reporting her rape and ‘getting the immigrant in trouble’. Baltic states watch their economies fall apart but only seem to exist to fight with Russia.
Somebody tell me there’s a bottom here.
Posted by: Eighthman | Sep 2 2022 21:27 utc | 92
Reply to 95
Sorry Eighthman you are reading it correctly. There is no bottom, this one goes all the way. The west has gone insane.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 2 2022 21:49 utc | 93
I beleive that Europeans do want this sacrifice for Ukraine. The life is just too boring.
They cannot stand just going to wotk and watching TV.
This is “something”. They obey the masters and have a purpose in rheir lives.
There shall be no riots in the winter. Like spanisch anarcists lomg ago, now EU masses are screaming “Viva la.muerte”
Posted by: mario2 | Sep 2 2022 22:11 utc | 94
Well, if the sanctions are an US attack vs Germany, the price cap is an attack vs UK. The way these geniuses are planning this, is a direct attack to London.
Posted by: Erlindur | Sep 2 2022 22:19 utc | 95
alek_a | Sep 2 2022 18:06 utc | 67
Total bullshit about Pu and U at the ZNPP site…
The quantities mentioned by the INEA are equivalent to 50% of the plutonium recovered from nine Hanford WA reactors dedicated to plutonium production. This is complete nonsense as the nuclear sludge waste tanks from plutonium extraction (some 30 million gallons) do not exist at the ZNPP site.
https://www.hanford.gov/page.cfm/purex
Furthermore, the ZNPP reactors were used for power generation and would be depleted in the most useful isotope of plutonium for bomb production.
Posted by: Krollchem | Sep 2 2022 22:20 utc | 96
Its already the Day 6 of the Ukie counteroffensive in Kherson…and in Kjrakow…and to no avail. There is not enough places to fix the injured and to store the dead.
Posted by: rp | Sep 2 2022 22:21 utc | 97
Gazprom informs,
A letter regarding the identified malfunctions of the Trent 60 unit (No. 24) and the need for their elimination was sent to the President and CEO of Siemens Energy AG, Christian Bruch.
Until the identified malfunctions on the operation of the equipment are eliminated, gas transport to the Nord Stream gas pipeline has been completely stopped.
…..
Apparently, Nord Stream stopped for a long time…
From Monday, we can expect a new price tsunami in the gas market…
Posted by: rp | Sep 2 2022 22:28 utc | 98
reply to JustAMaverick 97
“The west has gone insane.”
Im am indeed noticing people in the Netherlands that have indeed seem to have gone insane
Today in an online dutch forum we were discussing whether or not the sanctions war against Russia was worth it, because it is really starting to hit home very hard, lots of folks can’t pay their bills anymore and some guy replied that it was worth it because otherwise the Russians would come and bomb the City of Rotterdam just like the Germans did in WWII.
Lots of folks becoming deranged here. Also read an article on some taxi traffic jam in Moscow caused by hackers and commenters were so happy commenting that they just love it when Lives of ordinary Russians get derailed completely and all this on a heavily moderated big news site in the Netherlands in fact, where racism and hate speech is strictly banned and moderated but crazy Russophobia, xenopobia against Russian have become the norm same thing in our TV news media, it’s completely cringeworthyy.
Posted by: Jimmy | Sep 2 2022 22:29 utc | 99
The Siemens turbines. Russia is ensuring strict compliance of EU sanctions.
Earlier I could not understand why Russia did not hit the west with economic sanctions. Now it is easy to see that all Russia has to do is ensure the west abides by its own sanctions.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 2 2022 22:35 utc | 100