Ukraine Loses Soldiers - Europe Its Economies - All For No Gain
When the Ukraine launched its Kherson 'counteroffensive' on August 29 I was pretty aghast and judged that it was destined to fail:
To break the reinforced Russian lines now would have taken more troops than were available.I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew that this offensive would fail.
For political reasons Zelenski ordered them to launch it anyway. There are now another 1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for nothing other then some sensational headlines and political optics.
More than 3,000 Ukrainians have died by now in the Kherson offensive without having made any significant progress. Hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles were lost. A dozen Ukrainian planes and helicopters have been shot down. All the material had come from the 'west' which has now emptied its stock of Soviet weapons. No more will be coming anytime soon.
The Ukraine thereby blew its chance to hold a line against any significant new moves from the Russia side. Those moves will be coming.
But what really bothers me is the human toll of this offensive.
I have never been at war. But I have had a decent full time military officer training over several years plus several month long reserve stints in active duty battalions. I have read lots of books and watched dozens of movies about frontline fighting in World War I, II, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan etc. If one reflects on those events and the details described in the depictions one gets a 'feel' for such conflicts. Then there is the operational math like the numbers of artillery rounds fired per square kilometer, troop density and the toll such artillery bombardments will inevitably take.
The Ukrainian soldiers never had a chance to withstand the might of the Russian military. None whatsoever. That was recognizable from the very onset of the war. That the Ukrainian government and its backers tried to withstand the onslaught was illogical.
The 'west' should have given up and make the concessions that Russia had demanded. It will have to make those anyway.
The Ukrainian government has tightly controlled the media and any reporting from the frontline. We have only had Russian reports of high numbers of Ukrainian casualties. Some doubt the numbers the Russians give. I don't. They mostly fit with what I learned and with calculations.
Now a Washington Post reporter got access to hospitals where wounded Ukrainian soldiers involved in that 'counterattack' try to recover. John Hudson's report is grim even as it is not from the frontline and holds back on the most grievous scenes:
Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive
As the piece is behind a paywall I will extensively quote from it:
In dimly lit hospital rooms in southern Ukraine, soldiers with severed limbs, shrapnel wounds, mangled hands and shattered joints recounted the lopsided disadvantages their units faced in the early days of a new offensive to expel Russian forces from the strategic city of Kherson.The soldiers said they lacked the artillery needed to dislodge Russia’s entrenched forces and described a yawning technology gap with their better-equipped adversaries. The interviews provided some of the first direct accounts of a push to retake captured territory that is so sensitive, Ukrainian military commanders have barred reporters from visiting the front lines.
...
“We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.
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Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.
Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.
Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.
...
Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. “They were just hitting us all the time,” he said. “If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return.”The Ukrainian soldiers said they had to carefully ration their use of munitions but even when they did fire, they had trouble hitting targets. “When you give the coordinates, it’s supposed to be accurate but it’s not,” he said, noting that his equipment dated back to 1989.
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Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.“When we turn on mobile phones or radio, they can recognize our presence immediately,” said Denys. “And then the shooting starts.”
...
The Ukrainian claims of retaking villages such as Vysokopillya could not be confirmed, though soldiers interviewed said they were able to advance into some previously Russian-controlled villages. Those soldiers declined to name the villages, citing instructions from their superiors.A group of Washington Post journalists who traveled within three miles of Vysokopillya, in northern Kherson, on Monday were prevented from entering the village by Ukrainian troops and could not ascertain its status. A local official said Ukrainian and Russian forces were still battling for control.
A clear picture of Ukraine’s losses could not be independently assessed.
...
Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed.A 25-year-old soldier being treated for shrapnel wounds said that, within his unit of 100 soldiers, seven were killed and 20 injured. Ihor, the platoon commander, said 16 of the 32 men under his command were injured and one was killed.
Ukraine’s injured soldiers have been spread out to different hospitals across southern Ukraine to free up the main medical facilities near the Kherson region for incoming patients.
The soldiers in the second 'counteroffensive' attempt southeast of Kharkiv will have a similar fate.
My best guess is that Ukrainian losses are not five but ten times those on the Russian side. An attack, through the open steppe, on an armored force that is technologically superior is a suicide mission.
Russian soldiers are not allowed to carry mobile phones. Why Ukrainian soldiers are allowed to have then and use those is beyond me. Do they want to commit suicide?
Suicide is what European politicians have committed their economies and societies to. Who knew that one needs energy, as cheap as possible, to smelter steel, aluminum and glass?
bigger
SGM World News @SGMWorldnews - 10:13 UTC · 7 Sep 2022BREAKING: 40 CEOs of European metal producers have wrote an open letter to Ursula von der Leyen and the European Commission warning of an "existential threat" to industry as power prices surge.
No steel smelter, no taxes from steel smelters and their workers. No steel smelter, no payback of credit given to it. The big banking losses coming now will cause another severe banking crisis. Less money for the state means less pensions and healthcare.
This is ruinous for European states and their inhabitants. Meanwhile the U.S. politicians, neoconservative ideologist and money men behind the whole plan of using the Ukraine against Russia are laughing their asses off.
Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen - 8:53 UTC · Sep 7, 2022I am telling you people that the situation in #Europe is much worse than many understand.
We are essentially on the brink of another banking crisis, a collapse of our industrial base and households, and thus on the brink of the collapse of our economies.We are also totally at the mercy of the authorities, and we have very little knowledge what they have planned.
Will they be able to stop the onset of the banking crisis, yet again? I don't know, but I am doubtful. 🤷♂️🤔
...
Germany is probably in the worst situation. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reacted to the Russia military operation with hysterical moralizing that was beyond any rationality. His government depends on the Green politicians in his cabinet. These are pigheaded ideological nuts. Germany, under severe threat of blackouts, will now decommission three perfectly fine nuclear power plants and restart dirty old coal fired power plants that were supposed to be dismantled. How Green is that?
Here is the how the president of Russia is seeing it:
Europe is about to throw its achievements in building up its manufacturing capability, the quality of life of its people and socioeconomic stability into the sanctions furnace, depleting its potential, as directed by Washington for the sake of the infamous Euro-Atlantic unity. In fact, this amounts to sacrifices in the name of preserving the dominance of the United States in global affairs.
...
The competitive ability of European companies is in decline, for the EU officials themselves are essentially cutting them off from affordable commodities and energy, as well as trade markets. It will come as no surprise if eventually the niches currently occupied by European businesses, both on the continent and on the global market in general, will be taken over by their American patrons who know no boundaries or hesitation when it comes to pursuing their interests and achieving their goals.
The next federal elections in Germany are three years away. One really hopes for some kind of coup but I see little movement yet in such a direction.
Where are the rational politicians who can take over?
Posted by b on September 7, 2022 at 11:16 UTC | Permalink
next page »Battle of the bulge redux. Still, a fully mobilised Ukraine still has more forces, numerically, to field, than the opposing side. The loss of so much equipment however, is likely to be the deciding factor in the future.
Posted by: Oh | Sep 7 2022 11:29 utc | 2
As ever b, you nailed it. The insanity of war is one thing, the insanity of climate crisis and energy scarcity is an altogether different level of insanity. Since the corona scam I've fought hard to keep my sanity and fate in humanity . Thanks to moa I haven't had to sign into my local loony bin yet.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Sep 7 2022 11:31 utc | 3
@1 Gerrard, note that putin said he is prepared to switch on gas through ns2 to PARTNERS. does this include unfriendly countries? Suggests to me conditions will be applied, eg dropping sanctions.
Posted by: Oh | Sep 7 2022 11:33 utc | 4
"the Russian artillery fire was relentless."
Remember the weeks and months of people telling us that Ukraine isolated Kherson by blowing up bridges on the Dneiper and even the land bridge to Crimea? If that was true then Russian artillery fire should diminish as they use up their scarce supplies.
Posted by: Christian Chuba | Sep 7 2022 11:40 utc | 5
Splendid article! What we indeed are seeing now are German politicians (Scholz, Habeck, von der Leyen, Baerbock) who are willingly and knowingly destroying the German and European economies... It is so unbelievable that it is actually difficult to believe it.
Posted by: Herman | Sep 7 2022 11:43 utc | 6
In the US, Tulsi Gabbard appears to be the only sane candidate with the required background for leadership.
In the EU.. Well.. They are vassal states. With the exception of Hungary under Orban.
If Macron was not such a compromised mediocrity, France could take a leading role. The days of de Gaulle are long gone alas, even though he predicted all that would happen if France subordinated itself to NATO / US dominance. Perhaps Segolene Royal and Melanchon offer a faint hope - but Macron was just reelected.
Germany remains the most controlled and obedient state in the EU. The population in general craves to be seen as totally loyal to the "current thing". Especially on the "left". Sahra Wagenknecht is the only politician of any real stature and she is marginalised.
I see the future of the northern EU regions as following the trajectory of Francoist Spain for the most part. Total repression of any dissent and widespread impoverishment for the next 25 years until the old guard die off and US influence globally declines.
The southern and eastern regions are more dynamic in potential as their decay is more advanced than the North - mostly due to their exploitation for the benefit of Frankfurt/Main.
One should not underestimate the hypnotic influence of centralised social media and the fear induced by our total surveillance state. In the not so distant future, even samizdat sites like this one will be "deplatformed". Dissenting individuals should think about moving to Russia or the Global South.
Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 7 2022 11:46 utc | 7
@oh, “partners” is a term Putin uses for all countries, friendly or not.
Don’t think he is so naive as to expect the West to lift thousands of sanctions, but a few strategic ones as a sign of good faith (ones the media wouldn’t get in a tiss about) might be expected.
At the end of the day, gas supplies are part of the symbiotic relationship of Europe and Russia that benefits both, which European leaders need reminding of. I think it might require the people to stand up and do some reminding soon.
Posted by: Macu | Sep 7 2022 11:47 utc | 8
Oh | Sep 7 2022 11:33 utc | 4
Tass quotes President Putin as saying
"""We are not building anything for no reason. We have received and perfected the necessary technology. We will turn on Nord Stream 2 if necessary," Putin said.
According to him, Nord Stream 1 is currently virtually closed, and the West claims that Moscow is using the gas pipeline as an energy weapon. "Nonsense. We supply as much as our partners need - we fulfill whatever they put in the application," Putin added.""
Perhaps The President is being sly about who is and who may be a 'partner', or perhaps he is just being very polite and leaving others to decide
Either way the EU fanatics find themselves faced with a tough decision - as always left to face the consequences of their foolishness
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 11:48 utc | 9
The yes men and women are keeping quiet for fear of looking stupid and the no way politicians have been hounded underground.
The hounding of commonsense rational humanity has been relentless over my 50 adult years.
The targeting of commonsense rational humanity has used every dirty trick in the deep State's psychological tool kit, breaking down families, compromising the innocent, glorifying the decadent and relentlessly promoting right wing dogma.
We are still here but we are mere survivors of this 50 year salvaging of sanity. It is what it is. As I predicted in 1979, Thatcherism has brought catastrophe first to other countries and now to ourselves.
We are still here. To still annoy the clowns with We told you. A beautiful cathartic catastrophe on the heads of all who lost their brains and hearts in 1979.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 7 2022 11:49 utc | 10
Very good post of Bernard and a remarkable realistic article in the Washington Post.
It goes beyond me that the European leaders have been and are still so ignorant regarding the economic, military and political reality. No doubt that this constitutes Economic and therefore Political Suicide.
The big question however is, how long it will take before the fury of their citizens is unleashed on their colonial-ideological, ostrich-stupid, politicians. And whether such a fury will really result in thorough political changes in these European countries.
Posted by: Ton | Sep 7 2022 11:53 utc | 11
Russia : The objective of the SMO is to demilitarise Ukrain.
Elensky : Hold my beer.
Posted by: Bob | Sep 7 2022 11:54 utc | 12
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 11:48 utc | 9
The funny feedback loop here is that without cheap gas for the next 15-20 years, EU economy and largest exports shrinks into near-oblivion and its purchasing and negotiation power drops correspondingly. What does EU have, except for some nice islands in the Med?
Even Africans won't soon sell gas for euros.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 7 2022 12:01 utc | 13
Report of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine - as of September 7, 2022
🔻 As a result of successful offensive operations in the Donetsk People's Republic, units of the Russian armed forces completely liberated the village of KODEMA from nationalists.
🔻 During the day, in the Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih direction, due to the large losses incurred in manpower and equipment, the Ukrainian troops did not carry out offensive operations. The Russian Aerospace Forces, rocket troops and artillery continued to deliver precision strikes against units and reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this direction.
▪️High-precision strikes hit the command post of the 24th mechanized brigade in the OLENOVKA region of the Nikolaev region, the manpower and military equipment of the 46th airmobile brigade in the areas of the settlements of BELOGORKA, SUKHOI STAVOK and ANDREEVKA of the Kherson region, as well as the 61st infantry brigade in the VISUNSKA regions and YAVKINO of the Nikolaev region.
An ammunition depot of the 406th artillery brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed in the area of the settlement of PEREMOGA in the Nikolaev region as a result of a strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defense systems in the TOKAREVO area of the Kherson region destroyed a Ukrainian MiG-29 and a Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down in the KOMSOMOLSKOE area of the Nikolaev region.
▪️Due to heavy losses, the personnel of the 57th motorized infantry brigade in the areas of the settlements of BELAYA KRYNITSA, Kherson region and VELYKOYE ARTAKOVO, Mykolaiv region, refused to perform combat missions and left their positions without permission.
▪️In total, in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog direction, the enemy lost 4 tanks, 6 infantry fighting vehicles and 5 other armored vehicles, 2 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and more than 150 military personnel per day.
🔻 The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.
▪️High-precision air-based weapons in the Krivoy Rog area of the Dnipropetrovsk region destroyed a fuel storage facility for military equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine with a volume of more than 5.5 thousand tons.
▪️A ground-based high-precision weapon inflicted a defeat on the point of temporary deployment of the unit of the nationalist formation "Kraken" in the KHARKOV region. Up to 30 nationalists and 10 vehicles were destroyed.
▪️Concentrated fire strikes on the combat positions of the 113th territorial defense brigade in the area of the settlements of PRISHIB, YAVORSKOE and ANDREEVKA of the Kharkiv region destroyed up to 40 and wounded more than 80 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
🔻 Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery continue to strike at military facilities on the territory of Ukraine.
▪️ During the day, six command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit in the areas of the settlements of CHUGUEV, DERGACHI, PRISHIB of the Kharkiv region, ARTYOMOVSK, SOLEDAR, KURAKHOVO of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as 47 artillery units, manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 143 districts.
▪️In the area of the settlement of KONSTANTINOVKA of the Donetsk People's Republic, workshops for the production of rockets for the Ukrainian Alder multiple launch rocket systems were destroyed.
▪️Three depots of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition were also destroyed in the areas of the settlements of LIMAN in the Kharkiv region, OCHERETINO in the Donetsk People's Republic and GULAI POLE in the Zaporozhye region, as well as a counter-battery radar station manufactured by the USA in the area of the settlement of ZELENODOLSK in the Dnepropetrovsk region,
▪️In a day, air defense systems shot down 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of KAMIANKA, KAPITOLOVKA, IZYUM, PIMONOVKA, GREAT PASSES of the Kharkiv region, KIRILLOVKA of the Donetsk People's Republic, LYUBYMOVKA of the Zaporozhye region and GOLAYA PIER of the Kherson region.
▪️In addition, 20 shells of the HIMARS and Vilkha multiple launch rocket systems were intercepted in the areas of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the settlements of KORSUNKA, NOVAYA KAHOVKA, GOLAYA PRISTAN in the Kherson region, as well as the Tochka-U ballistic missile in the area of the settlement of VALUKI Luganskaya Narodnaya Republic.
▪️In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 292 aircraft, 152 helicopters, 1897 unmanned aerial vehicles, 373 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4855 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 825 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems, 3369 field artillery guns and mortars, and also 5360 units of special military vehicles.
🔻 Despite the presence of representatives of the IAEA, the Kyiv regime continued provocations at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in order to create a threat of a man-made disaster.
▪️During the day, three artillery shelling of the city of ENERGODAR was recorded. In total, 16 shells were fired from the areas of the settlements of ILYINKA and MARGANETS, located on the opposite bank of the Kakhovka reservoir.
As a result of falling into a transformer substation, the city was left without electricity. The enemy firepower was suppressed by the return fire of Russian artillery.
▪️The radiation situation at the Zaporozhye NPP is normal.
Posted by: Summary | Sep 7 2022 12:04 utc | 14
Posted by: Macu | Sep 7 2022 11:47 utc | 8
At the end of the day, gas supplies are part of the symbiotic relationship of Europe and Russia that benefits both
It benefits Europe totally - Russia not so much, as we can see how profits have been sky high by reducing supply. Which is probably how Russia wargamed it from the start.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Sep 7 2022 12:14 utc | 15
"Where are the rational politicians who can take over?"
So lets take an analytical approach to that question.
After two years of madness the old parties have purged themselves by any dissent. Its not only that that everybody who opposed the Rona story has been excluded, the fact is that everybody who just wanted a more rational approach has been excluded. Even people who got vaccinated but held on to one or the other old principles of liberal societies (aka who for example claimed that the power of the state has its limits) have been sidelined and excluded from political and administrative positions, media, military, police etc.
When the Ukraine-war started, the remaining people in these fields already knew the name of the game: Any dissent will be punished. As in all such systems the point quickly arrived where silence on the issue at hand wasnt enough. In order to stay in the game you had to positively affirm the current order of the day. Ukraine, from this perspective just offered another level of detecting dissent from within. It is now a self enforcing system without any breaks attached to it.
The overwhelming majority of people who understood the process have left (or have been left) the field. Of the few who are aware but nevertheless still within the system you cant expect much. If they are still there they wouldnt have the spine to oppose the such created system even if they could manage to get in power.
So the old parties and institutions are lost. There is no rescue from within SPD, CDU, Labour, La france en marche or any traditional party in Europe. There will be no rescue from other institutions, not from the judiciary, not from the media, not from the military, not from big finance (which is dedicated to rescue itself by turning the world into a cage and doesnt care about the developments on the ground for millisecond)... No institution I can think of, has enough resistance in it.
That leaves us with the outsiders. The so called far right. Lets ignore the true extremists within these parties for a second and presume that they could win over enough people to gain power. There is a possibility for that to happen in several countries like Italy, Austria or France. Ok. So these right wing parties gain power and now have to deal with a 100% hostile media-environment, 100% hostile institutional framework and a radicalized 20 or 30% of the population which wouldnt accept these parties in power what so ever. The "best" outcome of such a scenario would be a long civil war. A lot more likely outcome is that power would either denied to them from the beginning or a quick overthrow by the institutional forces (lets call it deep state). The only chance for them to stay in power would be to become totalitarian itself and purge the opposition in these institution. So even if you assume that the right wing parties are not driven by extremism, they would have no other choice but become dictators themselves.
Now where can we find the purged former officials, politicians, media-people and so on politically? They either went over to the right (a minority) or started or joined their own mini-parties with Zero hope for any success short term. The problem is: There is no long term any more. Three years from now Europe will be dust the one or the other way. Those who still could be a force for sanity and are in a position of power are mainly businesses and companies, who are fighting for survival. but they will be gone 3 years from now. No german mittelstand left to demand sanity.
And thats the more "hopeful" national level. I am not even talking about the Evil Union, which is a lost cause whatsoever.
So the answer to the question is: Even if there were politicians, who intended to stop the insanity, the had little chance to do so. At least in western Europe.
Posted by: orgel | Sep 7 2022 12:15 utc | 16
Well this is true purpose of EU. Having non elected rulers that don't give a hoot about what is best for it's people (not to say countries). Those with national identity left (like Hungary) will do fine, the rest are going he way of suicide.
This period will be researched by historians of future as unbelievable stupidity.
Posted by: Abe | Sep 7 2022 12:17 utc | 17
@NightTripper, as Russia’s gas pipelines (currently) go West (not East) Russia benefits from having (what was) a reliable buyer. Negotiations with China over gas price took decades and were only signed post-Crimea sanctions. Russia therefore knows China is a tough country to negotiate with so having alternative buyers benefits Russia.
Point taken about rising prices but any producer knows prices are transitory factors, whereas it’s the relationships that are strategic. Hence the pivot East will also come with more integration, such as the commodity-backed basket of currencies being discuses that will act as an alternative reserve currency and, in the process, temper the over-whelming potential a future China will have.
Posted by: Macu | Sep 7 2022 12:29 utc | 18
@Macu
One Frenchman asked " Why do the Russians not want our money"?
This was followed by an explanation about how sanctions have made Russia flush with cash. More revenue,for less product. Alexander Mercouris did an excellent summary in his 06/09 video about the modern history of Europes pursuit of cost effective energy.
Posted by: Bob | Sep 7 2022 12:29 utc | 19
What I fear is there won't be a future for 'historians of the future' to be around to research.
Posted by: JulianJ | Sep 7 2022 12:30 utc | 20
NS2 leads from russia to germany. If he decides to switch it on, there is only one place where it arrives, no matter if you call it partner, friend or enemy.
Posted by: orgel | Sep 7 2022 12:31 utc | 21
Excellent interview from Sahra Wagenknecht (in German - use a translation service like DeepL or Google Translate) here:
To quote:
SW: A democratic government should first and foremost be committed to the mandate of its voters. Otherwise, why should people go to the polls at all? And the Greens would hardly have come to power if they had placarded, we will plunge millions of people into poverty and destroy industry in Germany in order to supposedly punish Putin. The economic sanctions are ruining us, not Russia, so the economic war must end.
IV: Vladimir Putin should be pleased.
SW: Millions of people in Germany are more likely to be pleased when their energy costs fall again. The Russian company Gazprom is currently making record profits. And it is clear that the sanctions will not end the war in Ukraine.
IV: But they will weaken Russia enormously in the long term if they are maintained. Various scientists agree on that.
SW: Is that so? What's happening right now? Gazprom is using its record profits to build more gas pipelines to China. Oil exports to Asia have already multiplied. Russia doesn't need the West to sell its raw materials. But German industry is going bust without cheap energy sources. And who is the laughing third? The U.S., whose fracking industry is currently raking in $200 million in profits with each liquefied natural gas tanker, and which is experiencing re-industrialization because more and more companies are moving jobs from Europe to overseas because gas and electricity are many times cheaper. We are destroying our industry and our middle class, this is madness!
IV: Better to make a deal with Russia for gas - and just wait and see which country Putin will invade next?
SW: Would you rather make a deal with Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the USA, which also bomb and murder in other countries in violation of international law, without these crimes ever being punished with sanctions? We ruin ourselves and Russia earns more than before thanks to the price explosion. Putin is laughing his head off at us.
IV: What do you suggest?
SW: The Ukraine war can only be ended with negotiations. Putin should be pressured to agree to a reasonable compromise. But the West and Ukraine are not trying to do that.
IV: Because Putin obviously does not want to negotiate.
SW: In the case of the wheat deliveries, it was also said that negotiations would bring nothing. Then Turkish President Erdoğan, of all people, took the initiative and now wheat ships can sail through the Black Sea again. It would be up to Europe and the German government to launch a diplomatic initiative to end the war. Or do we want to wait until Erdoğan does the same?
...
And so on.
It is interesting what is "obvious" to the dogmatic interviewer.
Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 7 2022 12:34 utc | 22
unimperator | Sep 7 2022 12:01 utc | 13
« « Even Africans won't soon sell gas for euros. » »
Lavrov recently toured Africa and made remarks to the effect Russia could help with currency reforms and will make proposals, repeated at the SCO summit in Tashkent in July
The current African Union program is the same old central bank credit union managed by a globalist dealer based in NY
Russia has more sophisticated and user friendly systems in mind – witness :
https://mronline.org/2022/04/16/russias-sergey-glazyev-introduces-the-new-global-financial-system/
The Mir card is spreading even here : https://tass.com/economy/1495387
There’s a catchphrase from Zoltan Pozsar which sums it up : ‘Commodities are collateral, and collateral is money’
Once Africa catches on, and manages to organise collectively or more practically as groups of countries with common geopolitical and economic foundations, as per example Central Africa, these remedies to current exploitation can be applied
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 12:44 utc | 23
I fond Putin's trolling about Nord Stream 2 to be masterful. Knowing that Germany's irrational and incompetent leaders will not open Nord Stream 2, he uses the possibility of it's opening as a tool to drive a wedge between the German government and it's people. It's like watching a chess master play against a 5 year old.
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 7 2022 12:50 utc | 24
Worth noting, the money from the sale of Chelsea FC is still all sitting in Abramovich's sanctioned British bank account months later. It was previously suggested half of the profits would be donated to aid displaced civilians.
Another Premier League football club goes to an American and his private equity partners. America's gains at European expense are manifold in this US-driven conflict.
Ukraine Loses Soldiers - Europe Its Economies - All For No Gain
Ukraine certainly is losing men in pursuit of an objective but does anyone in Europe still think the longer this war continues the more of Ukraine Russia will come away with? Is there any objective to what Europe is doing? My thought was that this was mostly a reaction of moral revulsion towards Russia launching the invasion and that it was in effect 'cancelling' Russia rather than deluding into thinking anything would change on the ground.
Strategic long term thinking has not been apparent in any of this but when you surrender any idea of what national interest is, you find yourself in these situations. They're not capable of thinking in these terms.
Right now we have the foreign policy chief the EU lamenting that European countries (IE, the EU not just NATO, the conflation of the two is concerning to somebody like me from a non-NATO EU country) didn't arm and train Ukraine up for the war with Russia last year when the flat-headed leaders in the East wanted because they sought conflict with Russia in a self-fulfilling prophecy. We have the foreign policy chief of the EU lamenting that actions weren't taken to increase the probability of the war last year, clown world.
This should be the greatest crisis for NATO and US political influence in Europe instead the role of the US neocons in this conflict is ignored and NATO is revitalised. It's insane.
And the reality of what entering a full-spectrum cold war with Russia (In reality, a Sino-Russian alliance) are still not emotionally accepted by Germany. To the Germans they think "But we did nothing wrong, we didn't provoke anyone" and therefore this can't be happening. Yes, you're right, you didn't do anything, the Americans did, so tell them to go to hell. This cannot be resolved so long as the Americans are involved.
Posted by: Altai | Sep 7 2022 12:57 utc | 25
@JustAMaverick | Sep 7 2022 12:50 utc | 24
There is no downside for Russia to opening NS2.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 7 2022 12:58 utc | 26
JustAMaverick | Sep 7 2022 12:50 utc | 24
‘Trolling’ is for trolls – Putin is anything but a troll
He’s not only stating the obvious, they built it for a reason, he’s offering a way out of the insolulable turbine repairs problem, as well as giving those europeans who summon up the courage something to latch on to as a solution, appealing not necessarily but also to current ‘leaders’
After all what would expect President Putin to say ? What would anyone think was the solution ? once they’ve caught on the reality of the problem
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 13:01 utc | 27
My takeaway is the following, "sacrifices in the name of preserving the dominance of the United States in global affairs." The sacrifices are going to come hard, and they are going to be heavy. Is the EU ready?
Please always remember: Evolution is better than revolution. We'll soon see, won't we? Peace!
Posted by: thecelticwithinme | Sep 7 2022 13:03 utc | 28
It looks as if the second Ukrainian counter offensive it taking off very well with Ukraine moving fast. Or maybe a trap is being set to encircle a large group of Ukrainian troops to be slaughtered.
We will find out in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the Kherson and Kharkov/Izium offensive have drawn away resources from the Donetsk area of the Donbas. This makes the Donbas much more vulnerable to significant Russian advances especially with the Russian 3rd army being moblized.
Posted by: young | Sep 7 2022 13:04 utc | 29
@Herman #6:
What we indeed are seeing now are German politicians (Scholz, Habeck, von der Leyen, Baerbock)…
Those are German in name only and not really “politicians”; they are Manchurian candidates who are selected, groomed, promoted, installed in positions of power and propped up by the DoS, the CIA and their various front “foundations”, “associations”, “organizations”, etc.
Posted by: S | Sep 7 2022 13:04 utc | 30
I'm constantly baffled that the public still think that things are "normal" and that politicians are trying their best to mitigate unavoidable problems.
They simply can't grasp the concept that ALL our suffering in the last three years was artificial and done deliberately to serve an agenda.
Nobody really trusted politicians before 2019. Yet when politicians not only declared war on us, but made it obvious (how could anyone NOT see the saturation propaganda and insane levels of censorship starting in 2020?), suddenly most people submitted to every outrageous government imposition.
Sometimes I falter and start thinking we deserve this for being so stupid as a people. It's hard to fight this feeling. It's getting real hard.
Posted by: Ray | Sep 7 2022 13:08 utc | 31
It seems the Ukrainians are to stupid, to ignorant or just plain dumb to remember 26 of april 1986. I remember it very clearly. And I was in Denmark.
Get these people out! They have a country to liberate! A lot that needs doing! Under the supervision of the US, that is. Faack the US it is a has been, and no coming back, it is economically and socially falling apart. Stuff it!
Posted by: Den Lille Abe | Sep 7 2022 13:08 utc | 32
Under Switzerland’s new rules, temperatures in buildings with gas heating systems can be raised to a maximum of 19 degrees Celsius (66.2 degrees Fahrenheit) and water can be heated up to 60 degrees Celsius (140 degrees Fahrenheit).
Radiant heaters are prohibited, while saunas and swimming pools must remain cold.
These are part of the measures stated in the Federal Law on National Economic Supply, to which the Federal Department of Economic Affairs (EAER) explicitly refers in an official document, the report said.
Markus Sporndli, a spokesman for the Federal Department of Finance, told Blick that the daily rate for fines could be at least 30 Swiss Francs ($30) and a maximum of 3,000 Swiss Francs.
Utility companies could also be penalized if they deliberately exceed their gas quotas.
The report said the government was moving in a “grey area,” with challenges and disputes over the punitive measures likely to keep courts busy.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/switzerland-could-jail-violators-of-new-gas-use-rules-report/2678309
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 7 2022 13:11 utc | 33
Response to Orgel
What is happening in the USA is that we are promoting change at the bottom of our governmental structure.. We ousted a lot of school board members who supported the crazy woke, authoritarian rule of schools in August. We have identified congressional candidates who support our MAGA agenda (not rhino republicans) and you will see them all elected in November. Once we control Congress, we control the money spent by the government.
The media is unaware of what is happening - or choose not to report it. The current administration would like to see us promote civil unrest but its not happening. When Biden said he would use military jets against us, we did not get upset. Our military could not win against a bunch of goat herders, how would they do against 3/4 of the American population armed to the teeth.
Have hope.
Posted by: Liz | Sep 7 2022 13:14 utc | 34
A very thoughtful piece. Thanks for the insight, b. What surprises me is how docile the ordinary EU ctizens have become. Most people don't like what the Eurocrats are doing, yet I haven't seen any determined movement from the citizens to take power back from the betrayers leading them.
Posted by: Steve | Sep 7 2022 13:21 utc | 35
The King who went to warOr what king marching into battle would not first sit down
and decide whether with ten thousand troops
he can successfully oppose another king
advancing upon him with twenty thousand troops?
But if not, while he is still far away,
he will send a delegation to ask for peace terms.
Posted by: ? | Sep 7 2022 13:22 utc | 36
@36; That would be called "revolutionary defeatism".
@35; Well, there were protests in the Czech Republic already.
However here is the thing. People have become mind controlled zombies thanks to the black mirror portals in their hands.
They know their every word and move is being recorded for eternity by the modern version of the Gestapo.
If they fall out of line then their career and ability to remain in a middle class discourse is seriously threatened.
Will you be detained at the airport when travelling? Disappear into a black site? Have a visit from some Ukrainian "refugees" with tattoos? Be smeared as some sexual deviant and thrown into prison on trumped up charges like Assange?
Many possibilities.
Fascism will only be defeated militarily. That means the military needs to defect for the sake of their national sovereignty and constitutions, or the Russians must do it for them.
Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 7 2022 13:26 utc | 37
Posted by: Paul | Sep 7 2022 13:21 utc | 36
That sounds like a joke a read today in some Russian tg channel.
Liz Truss, our country is standing at the edge of the abyss but we will take a step forward.
Is that what patriotism means to you?
Posted by: Paco | Sep 7 2022 13:29 utc | 38
"In the US, Tulsi Gabbard appears to be the only sane candidate with the required background for leadership.
Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 7 2022 11:46 utc | 7"
Mystifying, isn't it? She's both a Democrat and a WEF Young Global Leader.
If she's putting on an act, it's a damned good one.
Posted by: Ray | Sep 7 2022 13:30 utc | 39
Re: Posted by: Oh | Sep 7 2022 11:33 utc | 4
Leaving NATO should be a pre-condition to turning on gas supplies to any "unfriendly" countries to which gas has been cut off.
Note: Hungary is in NATO, but it is not an unfriendly country and the gas to Hungary hasn't been cut off either.
Posted by: Julian | Sep 7 2022 13:35 utc | 40
@ thecelticwithinme 28
Celtic Christianity is Orthodox Christanity, and like Islam it doesn't have the vicarious ( on Jesus pbuh ) forgiveness of sins . You can only pay for your own mistakes.
Inferential
Today tweedledum Truss and tweedledee StarChamber strutted their stupid answers to the question of who pays for our mistakes. The Orthodox and Islamic answer us that the people who make the mistakes are fully responsible for them.
In other words I, and hopefully Lavrov and Putin , from our different world views that neither the people nor the rich should pay for Biden's mistake of attacking Russia.
The leaders have to pay in full and change their mentality. Or as Blair once said:
" I take full responsibility for the Iraq War" while never having been convicted for his war crimes.
Rome is incapable of intellectual thought relying as it does on the fantasy that they will never have to pay for their mistakes.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 7 2022 13:35 utc | 41
JustAMaverick | Sep 7 2022 12:50 utc | 24
he uses the possibility of it's opening as a tool to drive a wedge between the German government and it's people.
Rather than driving a wedge, is he not demonstrating the yawning gap between the German Government and the people who elected it? The Government was elected to serve the people of Germany and look after their interests. Clearly, it is in breach of this social contract.
Sara Wagenknecht said this to the Bundestag on 15 May 2022
Don't you see that the sanctions policy harms us more than Putin? Don't you notice that since February the euro has been constantly depreciating and losing ground, while the ruble is quoted much higher than at the beginning of the war? It's time to think about why this is happening. Russia has the opportunity to sell its energy to someone else because most of the world does not support your sanctions. Germany will lose important sectors of industry if the country follows Mrs. Baerbock's course. Mr. Chancellor, leave your green games with energy already and deal with the real problems of people in your country!
Posted by: cirsium | Sep 7 2022 13:37 utc | 42
Q: Where are the rational politicians who can take over?
A: они говорят по-русски!
Posted by: James Cook | Sep 7 2022 13:38 utc | 43
There is no downside for Russia to opening NS2.
Posted by: too scents | Sep 7 2022 12:58 utc | 26
What would EU/nato do with all that cheap energy if it comes back tomorrow? Get back to easy money, turn money into weapons from US, use them against Russia and China.
So energy will be kept at minimum or turned off if EU wants to set price limits. I read that nuclear fuel might be sold for rubles soon. The only question now is how hard will EU be destroyed.
Posted by: rk | Sep 7 2022 13:41 utc | 44
This all fits the paradigm of Russia again using Winter to fight it's wars. European gas demand doubles in Winter from Summer. So, the lack of gas has been more a justification for financial speculation, not actual demand shortages, yet. The market/routes did flip with US LNG being an expensive support; but it's all been on the margins, really, compared to where it'll be. So, the twine holding Damacles' sword will soon begin to fray. But, also elections are looming; Putin knows democracies can seem resistant to change, but can also flip in an instant. Jefferson said "all gov'ts get their authority from the consent of the governed" which means ALL gov'ts are democratic, ultimately. We're told that Putin is politically fragile by people/parties that have 40% approval ratings. Get your popcorn ready. Once Football gets going, the Americans can be distracted and may not much notice the flip; but it's coming from above or below.
Posted by: scottindallas | Sep 7 2022 13:44 utc | 45
Trending:
ᛋᛋ #FreezeForUkraine 🇺🇦 ᛋᛋ
卐 #StarveForUkraine 🇺🇦 卐
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 7 2022 13:48 utc | 46
Using the Ukraine war and anti Russia sanctions was/is the US plan to destroy the EU all along, getting rid of EU industrial competition, sadly the Europeans still think Washington and London are their friend and ally.
Posted by: Hannibal | Sep 7 2022 13:49 utc | 47
Thatcher used a pulpit to interpret the Gospel teaching about personal responsibility as meaning not personal responsibility, but everybody looks after no 1 in worldly terms.
In Islam, when your opponent stubbornly denies the universal religious concept of personal responsibility , you have a right to kill them. Not when they go to worship in a church, not when they practices different faith, but when they deny responsibility for the consequences of their actions of their actions.
Russia going to war is far closer to the concept of jihad imho than Political Islam's concept of jihad, which plays cosy politics with the criminals and attacks the innocents. CIA and MI6 have totally perverted the meaning of a Holy War.
A proxy to a criminal is called a thug.
Posted by: Giyane | Sep 7 2022 13:54 utc | 48
Once you consider the notion that the elite are trying to kill us all, the war then makes some sense. I stumble a bit on the idea that vilified Vlad just might be the .001%'s really good boy. But damn if this war hasn't been perfectly timed and really convenient for the great reset. The poor Ukrainians, who have survived so many man made horrors in the past century, must really have done something to piss off the world's overlords to keep getting screwed.
Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Sep 7 2022 13:56 utc | 49
Gabbard is acting and will be sold as the non establishment pick that is here to save the regular folk from the woke.
You don't get that much network time for nothing.
Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 7 2022 13:57 utc | 50
The insanity of war is one thing, the insanity of climate crisis and energy scarcity is an altogether different level of insanity. Since the corona scam I've fought hard to keep my sanity and fate in humanity . Thanks to moa I haven't had to sign into my local loony bin yet.
Posted by: Eoin Clancy | Sep 7 2022 11:31 utc | 3
=================================================
Doesn't look like you have kept your sanity.
Endemic COVID ranks among the biggest defeats of the working class and the common man in history, it's certainly the biggest one in a very, very long time.
The precedent has been firmly established that from now on corporate profits and the preservation of the current status quo (of obscenely rich oligarchy and ever downward mobile underclass) will take precedent over public health, and no amount of death and disability matters.
Viruses with pandemic potential are a real thing. SARS viruses were a main candidate for causing a major pandemic for nearly 20 years. There are many others though.
But in the past any outbreak was properly dealt with, whatever it took, e.g. Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia were nearly fully shut down for more than a year to contain Ebola back in 2014, and nobody thought it was a scam (other than, unfortunately, a lot of people inside those countries, which is why it took more than a year rather than the two months it should have taken).
This time, however, things were allowed to get out of hand and it got to the point where in the West, not in some God-forsaken Third world country, the elites were put in a position where they either had to tax themselves to pay the working class not to work and stay home for potentially half a year, and to also organize a proper containment effort (which they are in fact organizationally incapable of doing), or to somehow mobilize their propaganda resources to trick people into not understanding what exactly the choice was and not do that. So what they of course did was to print trillions and hand them to themselves while to regular people they said (though not directly) "die, f***in plebs, we don't care, we will always have access to the latest treatments", and then they eventually abandoned even the pretense of trying to do containment.
Out the window went 150 years of civilizational progress towards reducing infectious disease burden, the concept of public health itself, workplace safety regulations (of all kinds, because again, the precedent has been set -- if we are going to let COVID run rampant in workplaces, schools, etc., then why guard against dangers that kill and maim even fewer people?), and, in the longer term childhood vaccinations too (which are being undermined now all over the world because the misuse of COVID vaccines generated a huge amount of distrust towards the very concept of vaccination), so we can expect all the forgotten diseases of the past to make a return eventually.
To rub it in, the propaganda machine was fully mobilized to make people think it was a scam, it is good for them to be infected (and then endlessly reinfected), etc. And people are not just falling for that, but are thinking that they are very smart, enlightened, and oh-so-critical thinkers for believing there was never any real problem and there isn't a problem now.
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 7 2022 14:00 utc | 51
@NightTripper, as Russia’s gas pipelines (currently) go West (not East) Russia benefits from having (what was) a reliable buyer. Negotiations with China over gas price took decades and were only signed post-Crimea sanctions. Russia therefore knows China is a tough country to negotiate with so having alternative buyers benefits Russia.
Point taken about rising prices but any producer knows prices are transitory factors, whereas it’s the relationships that are strategic. Hence the pivot East will also come with more integration, such as the commodity-backed basket of currencies being discuses that will act as an alternative reserve currency and, in the process, temper the over-whelming potential a future China will have.
Posted by: Macu | Sep 7 2022 12:29 utc | 18
=============================================
The reality here is that oil and gas are finite and extremely precious resources, thus any Russian (and previously Soviet) government that is exporting them out of the country is committing an act of treason against its people.
There is no proper value received in return for that oil and gas that can match what it will be worth 50-100 years from now (when oil and gas will be extremely scarce resources and Europe and the US will have likely started their final descent into the Mad Max world) if it was kept in the ground to serve the needs of the Russian people at that time. Right now the "value" received in return is mostly worthless trinkets and vacations for wealthier Russians around the world, which is pure dissipation of invaluable real resources.
Obviously it was a much worse situation 25 years ago when all those precious resources were being exported for peanuts, but that doesn't mean it is a good situation now.
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 7 2022 14:02 utc | 53
Liz, problem is the people you're electing are morons or worse, simply exploiting morons. The things you describe happening in schools, isn't. You're in a partisan information sewer; you've lost all since of conservative values; of limited gov't, of live and let live. You're being played by Wall St interests, just as both parties are. The few woke warriors are loud but don't have any real power. But, ironically, your partisan echo sewer amplifies their voices. Meanwhile, any focus on actual governance, actual policy discussions, balance and nuance are ignored; we end up governed by ideologues who don't care about the gov't they appealed to run; they're just opportunists. That's not a way to a better place. It's hard to find good news, I'm not saying any/either party is the simple solution; there aren't simple solutions to complex problems, (keep that in mind, and avoid the charlatans that offer that as a solution)
moabobserver; Fascism can never be defeated militarily; it takes civil disobedience, a free press and liberal rights and ideals including an aversion to censorship. Defeating fascism militarily just creates a new fascist order. Miles Copeland, ("the Police" drummer's father) was a CIA agent in the 50's and 60's; he wrote a few books; he remarked "[it's easy to topple a gov't, but you have no control over what will ensue]" Fascism is rule by force or coercion (there's more, but...) seldom do forces that conquer such force relinquish control (for long)
Posted by: scottindallas | Sep 7 2022 14:03 utc | 54
Posted by: orgel | Sep 7 2022 12:15 utc | 16
A very good summary of the political situation, not only for Germany but all of Northern Europe. They have perfected a system of sectarian-like mainstream consensus, based on centrally constructed, utterly false narratives. All opposition is removed by automatic social-psychological mechanisms at an early stage, defined as, or forced to become, "extremism". Indeed, independent-minded people with a knack for self-preservation now carefully avoid politics, media, and the public sphere.
When leaders still occasionally appear with even a modicum of reality-based independent thinking, usually from the ranks of local politicians, meetoo scandals and similar are the solution. Independent-minded men with leadership skills tend to be above average active on the erotic side and become vulnerable in this respect. Meeto is a tool developed in Langley, a refinement and modification of the old-fashioned honey trap / adultery edge.
I also see no solution other than breakdown and, worst case, eventually a return to violence as domestic political arbiter. The host is less careful and prudent than usual to express an explicit hope for it, though.
Posted by: veto | Sep 7 2022 14:05 utc | 55
Posted by: Paul | Sep 7 2022 13:42 utc | 46
That was cruel, and uncalled for. Bernhard has just written, one of his best ever posts, explaining the real horrors of war, and all the economic and political issues surrounding this current one.
You may well be a pacifist now, and so am I, but you need to take Bernhard's and Germany's history into account.
Both my older brothers joined the Territorial Army in the early 1960's. I didn't, but I didn't disapprove. My family were extremely lucky to survive WWII.
What is happening now, is that all of Europe is being attacked by American neoconservatives, who control US foreign policy. European politicians are too brainwashed or too stupid, or too corrupt to represent European people.
Instead of defending us, they and the media are brainwashing us in effect to all become part of a suicide cult.
The Americans are being extremely clever, but extremely evil. They see no problems whatsoever in destroying Europe. They have been planning it for years.
Posted by: Tony_0pmoc | Sep 7 2022 14:10 utc | 56
Currently still in the "laugh at stupid" phase. We will see what happens when the grannies start dying. After years of "If you don't get vacation you hate granny" .It will be #killyourgrannyforukraine.
Posted by: Bob | Sep 7 2022 14:11 utc | 57
Hannibal, it's highly doubtful the US/UK are that clever; they ARE so deluded that they thought Ukraine might actually break free, they planned the date, early Spring and thought they could expose rusty old Russia. They are more likely guilty of ignorant hubris than such calculated mastery.
Posted by: scottindallas | Sep 7 2022 14:12 utc | 58
Ray @ 40
Mystifying, isn't it? [Gabbard's] both a Democrat and a WEF Young Global Leader. If she's putting on an act, it's a damned good one.
Proof she's WEF? WEF wussy vampires don't join the military, they make other people do the bleeding.
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 7 2022 14:20 utc | 59
We are at the "kill as many as possible" stage of the plandemic.
Central Banks call it reducing demand.
Posted by: Jacq | Sep 7 2022 14:22 utc | 60
Here's a link to the article referenced by b in the OP:
Posted by: Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 7 2022 14:23 utc | 62
The UK economy has been just displaced by India as the worlds fifth largest economy. The Indian economy grew by 7% in the last quarter. The UK economy shrank by 0.1% and that is only the beginning. The RF is picking winners.
Posted by: Paul McGrory | Sep 7 2022 14:27 utc | 63
Where are the rational politicians who can take over?
Excellent article. The only hope for the EU is some local politicians rising up and pusing out the WEF and death cult idiots.
Posted by: circumspect | Sep 7 2022 14:31 utc | 64
Within the western narrative the deliberate reason for both the slaughter and the strife can be to have 'no options left' and force everything towards further escalations with the use of nuclear weapons and similar.
During the cold war NATO knew they couldn't defeat the USSR in any conventional scenario, thus NATO quickly focused on nuclear deterrence which means their use in war.
[Posting without having read any comments, will do so later today or tomorrow].
Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Sep 7 2022 14:32 utc | 65
"...So these right wing parties gain power and now have to deal with a 100% hostile media-environment, 100% hostile institutional framework and a radicalized 20 or 30% of the population which wouldn't accept these parties in power what so ever..." Orgel @16
That is not the way that it works: the media is siding with authority. If fascists come to power the media will do as it is told. The same is true of civil servants and the institutional framework.
It is only when property is threatened and socialism a possibility that either the media or the established institutions (or the intelligentsia) will revolt. That is because they understand that the real power in society lies with those who own the economy.
As to the 20-30% of the population who are radicalised, what do you think Concentration Camps are for?
Posted by: bevin | Sep 7 2022 14:40 utc | 66
EU is preparing another 5 billion in aid, USA announced a new trance of multi billion aid as well.
Anti air tanks and artillery radars on the way from Germany alone.
The NATO comprises of a huge slice of the world's GDP - and will continue to send weapons as long as there are Ukrainians willing to use them.
It's Afghanistan all over again..
Posted by: Frenziedfrog | Sep 7 2022 14:41 utc | 67
I'm bemused by how many commentators here seem to not understand why the EU/UK are apparently committing economic suicide.
Global capitalist wars like WWI and II can no longer be fought due to the existence of nuclear weapons, hence 'new' ways of consuming surplus capital, taking out competitors have to be created. If this means sacrificing the populations of the 'advanced' countries, so be it. After all, the destruction of the biosphere by industrial capitalism, is only a few steps behind.
The ruling elites of Europe and the US are not bothered by the devastation that sanctions have caused, any more than they were bothered about the multiple millions sacrificed on the alter of Capital in their world wars.
Don't you guys get it? The ruling class don't give a shit about anything beyond their immediate gratification.
"...To rub it in, the propaganda machine was fully mobilized to make people think it was a scam, it is good for them to be infected (and then endlessly reinfected), etc. And people are not just falling for that, but are thinking that they are very smart, enlightened, and oh-so-critical thinkers for believing there was never any real problem and there isn't a problem now..." Tbx@52
I can't recall the last time I copied a post and saved it for future use. But I copied this one which makes the argument against the Establishment friendly, Covid welcoming morons dancing to the Koch Brothers tune and grinning as granny passes away, choking, in the hospital.
Posted by: bevin | Sep 7 2022 14:46 utc | 69
Putin has no upside from restarting gas to Europe. This winter when companies close and people can't pay their bills the banks will collapse or the central bank will print to "infinity and beyond!" But that won't help pay dollar denominated debt, which is most of it. When that dollar debt can't be payed off the US central bank will flood the market with fiat to protect against collapase. We are far down the road of diminishing marginal returns on that strategy so expect less results for each trip to the well. Why, if all you have is a hammer...
And there you have it. Russia wins, ends US hegemony with no major battles, no aircraft carriers sunk and no canned sunshine on a missle.
As long as China can keep their economy afloat...
Whatever is unsustainable must end. Europe will either stay on its present course and suffer catastrophic decline or it will relent and agree to terms with reality and its place in the emerging global power structure. In either case, the world as we know it will change drastically.
Posted by: Bilaal | Sep 7 2022 14:57 utc | 71
Great piece. The G7 and most EU countries are little more than US vassals/stooges who take their marching orders from Washington. Seven decades after the end of WWII, Germany is still occupied by more than 35K US troops. As seen in the UK, it makes little difference who is in charge. Former UK PM Boris Johnson has been replaced with Liz Truss, a Tory buffoon, who confuses the Baltic and Black Seas and bragged about her willingness to launch nuclear missiles against Russia/China. The UK is faced with high inflation and sky rocketing energy costs; Truss’s economic policies will be done ‘in a Conservative way’- consisting of more deregulation and tax cuts; read more austerity and falling living standards for working people and their families. Even US mainstream press is nervous, See- Boris Johnson’s Terrible Parting Gift- Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, is walking into an economic hurricane. By Helen Lewis Atlantic Sept 5, 2022; https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/liz-truss-uk-prime-minister-boris-johnson/671317/
We should consider the “too slow” complaint in the context of the recent/current Ukrainian counteroffensives. The big arrows on maps, including in WWII during the great battles between the Wehrmacht and the Red Army are incredibly costly for both attacker and defender. And that appears to be proven true for Ukraine currently. Clearly Ukraine is having some success around Kharkov/Izium, but the losses in manpower and equipment also appear to be brutal and potentially unsustainable.
This is almost certainly the reason why Russia has not launched massive offensives. It can afford the loss of equipment but not manpower. Whether it should accept the loss of manpower and/or supplement it with more Russian forces to absorb those losses is a different question. The answer to it though is internal. I suspect that Russia has decided it’s not worth it because it can sustain the current conflict intensity for a very long time but taking risks on potential success (a large offensive could fail for numerous reasons) with predictable and fairly large loss of life is simply not worth the potential gains. Russia would of course have to advance across open steppe in the south too, granted with more fire support from artillery and air power but a dangerous move regardless.
Maybe Putin doesn’t have the guts. Maybe it’s a mathematical equation. Maybe it’s a decision within the larger geopolitical context. Maybe it’s some of all and then some.
Posted by: Lex | Sep 7 2022 15:01 utc | 73
This article covers all. "b", thank you.
This must be the central concern: "But what really bothers me is the human toll of this offensive."
And you have emphasised that before. It was indeed "criminal" as you have said several times, for us in the West to have driven the Ukrainians into this carnage; and to have insisted that it must continue. We have shown an utter disregard for the lives of our proxies and are continuing to do so.
In the light of that central concern all other examination seems trivial, missing the point. But I have reservations, I must confess, about placing the responsibility on a handful of Neocons in Washington and thus, in a sense, exonerating we Europeans.
I would like to know a lot more about Scholz's and UvdL's true motives before February 21st. I would like to know a lot more about what was arranged in those coalition talks and why. Until that is known, I am reluctant to see the European leaders as merely Washington puppets, nor even as their witting accomplices.
From as far back as the Association Agreement negotiation, even before, I believe the European leaders were resolved on the current Russia policy we see from them today. They had neither the military muscle nor the financial/economic muscle to pursue that policy to any great extent then or now. They did have that military and financial muscle from Washington, or thought they had. Maybe they used Washington as much as Washington thought it was using them.
So I go against the general run of opinion and hold the Europeans as responsible as Washington for this attack on Russia, perhaps more so.
Perhaps the Russians sense that too. The White Tiger, in that iconic movie, comes out of Europe, not the United States.
Posted by: English Outsider | Sep 7 2022 15:04 utc | 74
@Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 7 2022 13:57 utc | 51
Gabbard is acting and will be sold as the non establishment pick that is here to save the regular folk from the woke.
You don't get that much network time for nothing.
A bi-racial woman, she even one-ups Obama! I fear that you are very correct, the elites are extremely flexible in keeping power (as with the Obama pivot after the 8 years of Bush to assuage the masses with "hopey changey"). With the woke establishment rapidly losing credibility, the globalist elites have to have a plan B. Perhaps Gabbard as VP candidate to a Trump President in 2024, just like with LBJ for JFK, then Trump dies of some "old-persons" disease? So very predictable perhaps ....
A huge chunk of the non-white traditional values electorate is waiting to be picked up by a mixed-race/hispanic candidate mouthing off against the "woke" and minority young men needlessly dying in foreign wars and the "globalists", while pushing MAGA. The Democrats have done nothing for those voters for decades.
@Frenziedfrog | Sep 7 2022 14:41 utc | 68
Nothing prevents Russia from choosing another, faster, path. They seem to like this method where they have a little black hole that sucks all nazis out of existence with the cost of daily attacks on civilian targets, large scale terrorism and a duration of years. Nato will surely sponsor terrorism after war ends. And not only in Ukr but inside Russia and Belarus too. So killing as many nazis during the war is the best way of having less terrorists in the future. I do think they're going much too slow, they're in the wrong side of slow.
And Taiwan hasn't even started yet but it will, using the same recipe, nato isn't known for imagination.
Posted by: rk | Sep 7 2022 15:17 utc | 76
‘Trolling’ is for trolls – Putin is anything but a trollPosted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 13:01 utc | 27
The internet expression "trolling" comes from fishing. The objective is to attract/distract the fish with bait or a shiny object. So yes, Putin is trolling.
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 7 2022 15:19 utc | 77
@Posted by: Frenziedfrog | Sep 7 2022 14:41 utc | 68
The NATO comprises of a huge slice of the world's GDP - and will continue to send weapons as long as there are Ukrainians willing to use them. It's Afghanistan all over again..
1. Using purchasing power parity to properly represent output on a comparative bases, NATO is about 25% of world GDP at best and shrinking.
2. A very large chunk of that GDP is useless waste, represented by massive overspending in the US on healthcare, massive overspending on a corrupted military sector, and a huge financial system that is counted as GDP but is actually a rentier overhead. The UK is a financial centre of corruption with a country attached.
3. None of that GDP exists without cheap energy, as Europe is rapidly finding out. This will ripple through the US via financial contagion and inflation as European industry shuts down (Chinese and other nation's industries will happily fill the void but that takes time). Germany is now running an increasing trade deficit, and government budget deficits will explode due to energy subsidy schemes - on top of all the debt put in place in the past 40 years and the massive COVID subsidies.
The result is that the West is already running out of weapons to send to Ukraine and its incredibly corrupt, inefficient money-grubbing MIC will take years to refill the relatively meagre levels (compared to Russia's daily usage in Ukraine) that previously existed. The European militaries are a laughing stock (e.g. the UK aircraft carrier broken down and without its own aircraft because they are too expensive).
This is not 1980, its 2022. The new levels of supply ($'s and material) are getting incrementally smaller, which will continue as stockpiles are already at very low levels, and Western governments will find it hard to send money to Ukraine as their population sinks into energy poverty.
“It's like watching a chess master play against a 5 year old.”
Posted by: JustAMaverick | Sep 7 2022 12:50 utc | 24
———-
Actually, it’s like wastching a chess master play against a pigeon. The flustered pigeon knocks all the pieces around and shits all over the board.
Germany and the EU are led by people with less brainpower than a pigeon, and those “leaders” are shitting all over their people.
The current political situation in the EU is a mass psychosis implementation of the Stockholm Syndrome.
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | Sep 7 2022 15:23 utc | 79
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 7 2022 14:00 utc | 53
This is and hypothesis. A very smart one, which everyone should think about.
Posted by: Parisian Guy | Sep 7 2022 15:23 utc | 80
Posted by: Tony_0pmoc | Sep 7 2022 14:10 utc | 57
" European politicians are too brainwashed or too stupid, or too corrupt to represent European people."
You assume that their objective is to promote the wellbeing of the people of their countries.
An alternative is that they knowingly and cunningly are moving as they do so that they will be further able to advance the European Project, by not letting a good crisis go to waste. Their European Project is more important to them than the comfort, wellbeing or even lives of ordinary people.
Posted by: Ross | Sep 7 2022 15:28 utc | 81
Posted by: Cato the Uncensored | Sep 7 2022 15:23 utc | 80
The only ability they have is reading from a script. None of them have own conviction of anything, as long as paycheck and benefits come on a silver plate. This applies especially to top EU officials. Most of the Baltic countries read the script, as well as Nordic, Netherlands and other poodles. Scholz seems to have some ability to think but is quickly abided to follow the script anyway, Macron sometimes makes somewhat reasonable comments but he abides the Davos plan anyway.
Ursula VDL, Frans Timmermans, Stoltenberg etc. are the worst pigeons shitting on the table. The barking gets louder as they head closer to the edge of the cliff.
Posted by: unimperator | Sep 7 2022 15:33 utc | 82
thanks b.. excellent overview... that this is happening is insane..it's what i have come to expect of western leadership... it's the worst... it is much as @ 16 orgel says..
@ orgel | Sep 7 2022 12:15 utc | 16
thanks for your commentary.. others might benefit from reading it.. aside from @ bevin | Sep 7 2022 14:40 utc | 67 minor quip, i think you are bang on in all your say..
Posted by: james | Sep 7 2022 15:38 utc | 83
@ Pacifica_Advocate | Sep 7 2022 14:23 utc | 63
thanks... some disturbing pictures and etc... and i see the washington post says this -
"The Post is withholding the names of hospitals treating soldiers because such medical facilities have been targeted by Russian forces through the course of the war."
i guess the idea is to cement the characterization of russia as the most horrible and dishonourable of countries to commit war crimes... such bullshit is what i have come to expect of the west and its media....
Posted by: james | Sep 7 2022 15:42 utc | 84
Posted by: Roger | Sep 7 2022 15:23 utc | 79
Yes! What's going to happen to all the Amazon Server farms that chow megawatts of power!!
Is there any evidence to show anything close to the losses that the Russians claim Ukraine suffered around Kherson?
I've seen nothing but a few burnt out APCs and a handful of fallen troops posted by the Russian propaganda Telegram channels.
Posted by: Peter in AB | Sep 7 2022 15:45 utc | 86
There is nothing to worry about.
Here is the Economics Minister of Germany in all his glory.
https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1567478551489789953
Posted by: Lapin | Sep 7 2022 15:46 utc | 87
As long as China can keep their economy afloat...
Posted by: Trumpeter | Sep 7 2022 14:53 utc | 71
If their communists can reign in their capitalist during Dollar hegemony collapse they'll be fine.
The current situation wrt Russia is exactly because they seek to integrate with economic spheres countries hostile to itself controlled in bid to find profit.
They neglected trying to grow or built their own economic spheres until very recently.
Posted by: Lucci | Sep 7 2022 15:46 utc | 88
"The slow-motion coup is over. Corporations and the billionaire class have won. There are no institutions, including the press, an electoral system that is little more than legalized bribery, the imperial presidency, the courts or the penal system, that can be defined as democratic. Only the fiction of democracy remains."
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Sep 7 2022 15:49 utc | 89
Gabbard is acting and will be sold as the non establishment pick that is here to save the regular folk from the woke. You don't get that much network time for nothing. Posted by: OohCanada | Sep 7 2022 13:57 utc | 51
Partly correct, she and Bernie are the "bookends" on the Democrat Party shelf. AOC will take Bernie's place soon.
"The best way to control the opposition is to lead it ourselves.” ~ Lenin
Posted by: Opport Knocks | Sep 7 2022 15:49 utc | 90
Irreversible changes have taken place in the system of international relations. The role of the Asia-Pacific region has grown significantly. Western countries strive to maintain the former world order that is beneficial only to them, to force everyone to live according to the rules that they themselves have invented, they themselves regularly violate. Back in the spring, many foreign corporations announced their withdrawal from Russia. But now we see how, one after another, production facilities in Europe itself are closed. The authorities of these states themselves deprive them of raw materials, available resources and markets. And one of the reasons is the termination of cooperation with Russia. It is not surprising if, as a result, the niche of European business is occupied by their American patrons, they never limit themselves in anything and are not embarrassed.
Posted by: Paul | Sep 7 2022 15:51 utc | 91
To rub it in, the propaganda machine was fully mobilized to make people think it was a scam, it is good for them to be infected (and then endlessly reinfected), etc. And people are not just falling for that, but are thinking that they are very smart, enlightened, and oh-so-critical thinkers for believing there was never any real problem and there isn't a problem now.
Posted by: Tbx | Sep 7 2022 14:00 utc | 52
Of course, you nailed it, and those western "critical thinkers" (sic) are in a state of psychotic denial of reality. Be it regarding Sars-cov2, loss of biological habitat for humans and non-humans etc. This, along with the brutal decline of western leardeship, signala their return to european dark ages, from which they were extracted by Asia. The problem for China in particular: how to contain those hysterical barbarians who are cognitively, socially incapable of collaborating to a simple task of infection control? The world has had enough of 5 centuries of european diseases (of the mind and the body).
Posted by: Kareem | Sep 7 2022 15:52 utc | 92
Posted by: moaobserver | Sep 7 2022 13:26 utc | 38
"They know their every word and move is being recorded for eternity by the modern version of the Gestapo. If they fall out of line then their career and ability to remain in a middle class discourse is seriously threatened. Will you be detained at the airport when travelling? Disappear into a black site? Have a visit from some Ukrainian "refugees" with tattoos? Be smeared as some sexual deviant and thrown into prison on trumped up charges like Assange?"
Before 9/11, I actually wanted to travel to the USA. My Son did, with his local Scout Group. He found it strange in the year 2000, that Americans seemed to be preparing for war. He was however taught to shoot everything from a bow & arrow, to a machine gun. He gave me the perception as if it was like 1936, and I was sending my 12 year son, to a Hitler Youth Camp.
He hasn't been back.
When we were flying to Cuba, I was terrified, that we might have to land at a US Airport.
I also had to in effect resign from my job, cos they all thought I was mad, when I said the Official US Government Story re 9/11 is impossible. It does not comply with the basic laws of physics and maths.
Posted by: Tony_0pmoc | Sep 7 2022 15:53 utc | 93
#6
There are new, interesting articles on that, based on a leaked document from the Rand Corporation, entitled "Containment of Germany for the United States and the world."
I read it on two German sites:
Basically, it says that at that time (the document is from January 25) the US were deliberately trying to make Russia invade so that they could portray Russia as an aggressor and put pressure on Germany's new, incompetent, ideologically extremist Green government to agree to suicidal sanctions on Russia, which the Americans knew would most of all damage the Germany economy and the Euro, which has been the plan all along.
I assume they did not trust Merkel, which is why they waited for the new government to take control, whose stupidity they assessed correctly.
As we already know Ukraine started the war as such on February 15 by massively increasing its shelling of the Donbass. The daily OSCE data confirm that:
https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/osce-reports-reveal-ukraine-started
That was the provocation intended to make Russia invade in order to protect people in the Donbass.
Posted by: Nico | Sep 7 2022 15:55 utc | 94
The European energy companies are already facing huge problems with future derivates.
”Norway’s Equinor ASA has said that European energy trading risks collapsing under the weight of margin calls amounting to at least $1.5 trillion. [- -} Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. “If the companies need to put up that much money, that means liquidity in the market dries up.”
Source: Bloombergs article: "Europe’s Lehman Warning on Energy Prompts Flurry of Cash Aid", (6.9.).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-06/europe-s-lehman-warning-on-energy-prompts-flurry-of-cash-help/
Posted by: Mikkael | Sep 7 2022 15:56 utc | 95
One telling point in this piece, is that the article from which the author quotes extensively on the losses suffered by the Ukraine forces in recent days, and the overwhelming superiority of the Russian forces in practically all aspects, weaponry, artillery, aerial and electronic, is that it was printed in the Washington Post.
The WaPo is basically a newsletter for the Pentagon.
Whatever narrative it wants to push, that's where it starts.
So if the WaPo is telling its readership that, after months of saying Ukraine was on the verge of winning, the Russian forces are in disarray, with poor morale and running out of soldiers and ammo, suddenly Ukraine is a beaten docket, and that the Russians have overwhelming firepower and other advantages, then we must be in the end game of this conflict.
How much longer it will be dragged out is unclear, but it can't go on much more.
Posted by: Orchard1 | Sep 7 2022 16:00 utc | 96
Almost all grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to developing countries, but to the EU countries. Only 2 out of 87 ships were delivered to developing countries, that is, they received 60 thousand tons of 2 million tons of grain, which is only 3%. With this approach, food problems will only increase, this can lead to a catastrophic situation. Maybe we should think about limiting the export of grain and other foodstuffs along this route?
Posted by: Paul | Sep 7 2022 16:01 utc | 97
@Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 11:28 utc | 1
President Putin just made an offer that you can not refuseThat is one smart move at this stage, even if it is an obvious one. But the pigheads will say no. There will be unrest.To open NS2
Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 7 2022 16:05 utc | 98
Ukraine can only hope for a coup to remove the dictator Zelensky.
His NSDC, appointed by Zelensky personally, freezes the bank accounts and all assets of his political rivals, journalists, and anyone critics.
That's what's coming to us. Fidel Castro's son Trudeau has already done it in Canada, and we see critics of Biden's mass immigration losing their bank accounts.
Posted by: Hegar | Sep 7 2022 16:07 utc | 99
Europe's shortage:
Lack of brain or political leaders?
Last week, the spot price of gas on European exchanges exceeded the psychological mark of $3,500 per thousand cubic meters. That's about ten times the normal price from the days when the EU was still happy with gas from Siberia.
[...]
Chancellor Scholz carefully looks at the Nord Stream 2 valve, but something prevents him from warming Germany. The Germans are told that the underground reserves are 80 or 85 percent full, but they are told that is not enough. [...] without constant gas supplies, the gas volume will certainly not be sufficient for the entire winter. A sad picture.
"Nous sommes en guerre"
[same Covid player shoot again]
The French head of state Emmanuel Macron summarized this phase of life sadly. In his words, “abundance is over.”
“What we are going through now is a turning point, a kind of big shock. First, because we are witnessing—not just this summer, but for the last few years—the time of the end of seemingly endless abundance. The time when money was available – cheap liquidity – is coming to an end. But there is also the problem of the disappearance of goods and technologies that once seemed always available. We are faced with the collapse of familiar economic "chains". Once again we have a shortage of this and that, a shortage of technology, a shortage of materials, a shortage of land for various uses, and even a shortage of water.
No, there is only a shortage of real democraty.
And abundance of propagande.
Posted by: La Bastille | Sep 7 2022 16:07 utc | 100
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Nord Stream 2
President Putin just made an offer that you can not refuse
To open NS2
https://tass.com/economy/1504103
Posted by: Gerrard White | Sep 7 2022 11:28 utc | 1